The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - What’s wrong with Rams’ offense, the Eagles’ path to the playoffs & the Patriots’ game plan for Mac Jones with Nate Tice + Sheil Kapadia’s Week 12 picks

Episode Date: November 26, 2021

Robert Mays and Nate Tice discuss the top things they are watching heading into the weekend slate. They begin by examining what is wrong with the Rams’ offense before talking about the Eagles’ path to the playoffs. They also discuss what is different about this version of the 49ers’ offense and how the Patriots have built their game plan around Mac Jones. Finally, Sheil Kapadia is back to break down his Week 12 picks.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. The athletic football show is presented by State Farm. Because like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Get a quote today. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today is Friday, November 26th. I'm Robert Mays. Fun show for you guys today.

Shookapadia is going to be joining us a little bit later to do our weekly pick segment. Before we do that, though, I'm thrilled to welcome my good friend, Nate Tice. Nate, how you doing, bud? Doing great. Yeah, here we go. week 12 where i mean thanksgiving it's weird always when i like look back like the year before you know we keep going on game pass when it worked and you go like oh i'm gonna click i'm gonna click oh week was thanksgiving week 15 right and you're like oh no that's actually wait December it's like week 12 and

thanksgiving like some reason like doesn't match up like i feel like it's later in the season but we still got like six weeks to go so we're recording this just full disclosure on tuesday obviously the holiday week is strange we didn't want to have to have anyone take time out of their Thanksgiving to record our normal Friday show. If anything changes between now and then, just keep that in mind. A little injury notes. If anything big happens, we'll record something at the top just to make it all clear. But just keep that in mind as you're listening to this.

We're going to dig into a Friday for today. Obviously, just less time to go back and watch film. We only had one day with the All 22 from last week. So we're going to pick four topics. We're going to dig into the Eagles run game a little bit later. We'll talk about the Niners and just some of the tweaks they've made on offense. talk about Mack Jones and this Patriots offense and how they've kind of created this haven for him. But I want to start with the Rams.

And I want to try to figure out or see if you can figure out what is wrong with the Los Angeles Rams offense. They're still number one in EPA per play after the last two weeks. If you look at the aggregate, it's not as if they've fallen off a cliff. But the last two performances against the Titans and against the Niners, both of them in prime time, it's taking the shine off them a little bit. You know, we were so excited about that offense a couple weeks ago on the show before they played the Titans. I mean, their passing game just seemed like they were doing anything that they wanted to. And that has fallen back a little bit.

So when you're looking at this team, which is about to play a Packers defense that's played much better as of late, what are you watching with this Rams team and what do you want to see them get back on track? Rewatching that 40-9 game was actually, I'm glad I did it. Like, because to hear the moment, I mean, I'm with it too. is you watch those night games. You're just like, holy crap, the Rams have been figured out. Or, man, they lose Robert Woods and they can't do this or that.

And I rewatch it. Yes, they had the early blemishes. Stafford, whatever the hell that throw was early on on a broken play. He had a couple. I mean, the one to Beckham that got intercepted, obviously, but then the one of that backup receiver on the dig where he just threw it like six feet over his head. It's like, what is going on right now? And I get that he had like pressure a little bit on it,

but he makes those throws all the time. where he moves, that's one of the best thing he does is he changes his arm slot. He just has that early on sometimes. I think he's one of those guys that gets amped up early on. And some quarterbacks can be like that where they're just like prime time game, night game. We got OBJ and like the first pass play. They're going to do them. Like, you know, kind of like we're going to put a 50 on them, all that stuff.

So I think that's a little bit of it. Rewatching it, though, after those early blemishes, they were moving to ball pretty well. Like they were getting guys open, even with Ben Scrowkron running. her routes for them, you know, the, the, you know, your classic Notre Dame, Northwestern guy. So like having like that, the loss of Robert Woods wasn't, yes, it hurts. But watching it wasn't as like, okay, okay, wasn't as much of a drop off as I saw doing the run game things, doing all those little things. They still have Cooper Cup being able to do the Cooper Cup things.

And watching OBJ running some of those routes, it's like, ooh, that's going to be tasty in a couple weeks as they kind of easing back into them, especially after the buy week and, you know, really getting instilled into them. So watching it, it's really the one blemish, I would say, other than Stafford's, you know, bonehead moments where he just sprays it for whatever reason is, um, this is something the Titans did take advantage of is they, they are kind of like an old school half slide team when they have protections and that center fully turns. And the 49ers didn't really take advantage of that much, but I thought the Titans did with

their pass rush plan and picking the center. And I'm curious if teams start looking at that, you know, because if they're going to be in more spread, yeah. And maybe you can teach it this way. I've been, obviously, with some people in my life, taught a certain way with the offensive line protection stuff. I really taught was, I learned, especially Roddy Hudson's one of the best at it. And Jensen with a with a box is really good at it. Yazdas and Travis Frederick are great with it. The Cowboys, because this is Bill Callahan taught it, is getting the center straight back in their sets because a lot of these defenses are picking them. You're running a middle twist or having a deed tackle pick them and then have another guy to loop around.

And when you got a guy that full turns and has the little half turn, it's easier to pick and easier to get those loops and make them edgy. Stafford kind of negates some of that because he's so, he could be brilliant at times, getting rid of the ball on progressing, get it out on time. But it's just something curious. I'm curious if other teams take advantage of it and they put a pass-fresh plan with that. But other than that, I watched those past two games and that wasn't as down on them as I thought I would be, you know, going into what I thought would be the film session. I do think the passing game stuff's really cool. Like they just run traditional good concepts. They get into the empty stuff.

They're not doing as much motion because they don't really have to create that stuff. But in the 49ers game, when you can see when they try to get back on track, they hit the run game a little bit. It looked good. It was like, you know, it still looked good, even without Robert Woods and stuff. It was still doing all the windback stuff. They're still hitting all the motion stuff, even with Ben Skralkin doing it. So I'm not as down as I thought it would be. And then we haven't talked about the defense yet.

We can get that in a minute. But as far as offensively, I still think they're fine. they were such a high-level unit, even with Stafford's EPA per play, even after these two weeks, it's still up there because that's how incredible they've been. And now they hit a buy week, and I think they have smart enough coaches to kind of go, okay, what's regroup? We've got a new set of personnel, and let's go from here. It's funny because the reason I was so excited about them,

and the reason that it kind of washed over me when I watched a couple of their games is because they could just do whatever they wanted, right? The thing that really was notable is that they weren't having to go to, I don't want to call it a gimmick because that seems derogatory, but they were just lining up an empty and slinging the ball over all over the field. They were making the game so hard on themselves because they could, right? Yeah. And when you watch that Niners game,

it feels like they're digging back into the version of the Rams offense that we saw for the last few years. It's like, all right, we need a chunk here on first down. Let's run a boot. We need a chunk here. Let's fake a bubble and then throw that little wheel to, cup up the left sideline, which is a beautiful play. So pretty. These are smart football plays, right?

These are effective, efficient football plays. Digging back into those is a good idea. Like, that's fine. It's a good answer. So you take out a couple of the bad turnovers and you kind of see what they look like when they're not throwing the ball to the other team. And even if they're not going to be this burn it down machine or we can just line up and empty and throw it 45 times and you can't stop us, you don't have to

to be that to be one of the best offenses in the NFL. If you can dig back into this under center run game where we're running some boots and play actions off of it and then we mix in the dropback elements and the downfield dropback elements that defined our offense over the first six weeks of the season, that's a nice mix. I feel like when they find that mix, they're going to be just fine. I'm curious, missing Woods, how does that change formationally what they can do with some of the run game stuff?

because him as a blocker is the thing they miss the most going from him to Beckham. Even if Beckham is a willing blocker at times, Woods is a plus plus blocker at that position. I think it's that now as opposed to, we kind of refer to Cup and Woods as like the tag team champs. Like they're so good at both the things they do. Yeah, it's kind of fun watching how much overlap they had in their skill set. It almost felt like a tag team, right? Like they're built kind of similarly. Like they do similar stuff.

It's like watching the Dudley Boys of the Road Wars. Warriors are like guys dressed the same way. It's so true. I know. And so I think what it does take away is now it's like, hey, we got to get cup the ball. And okay, boom, Robert, you're staying in and blocking. Robert Woods. You're staying in blocking. Not Robert Mays. Then it's like, okay, now we want to get. Nobody wants to see that. No, now we want to get Robert Woods a ball. Okay. Okay, poop is going to seal the edge and he's going to do all the past protection stuff where he acts like another tight end. So I think it's just that now becomes a little bit more one dimension. because you're not going to really have Van Jefferson do that. He's not built for that. He doesn't, he's not how he wins. He's more of a traditional type receiver. So I think that's kind of the one thing they take away.

That little unpredictable aspect of it is like, which guy is in motion, which guy is taking the stuff, which guy is taking the block, what guy is going out in a route? They're in a bunch. Oh, wow. Cups out the point man now. So it's just that little, little hesitancy that they can create. But I think it's such a great point you're talking about. Hey, they cranked it all the way up, living in this empty. world. It was kind of like jarring for the first few weeks. It was like, wow, they just,

they said we got so sick of golf in that offense. We're not doing it ever again. Like they're just like, we're not doing anything that. But yes, I think that's kind of nice that maybe with this by week is that they're going to kind of lean, hey, let's go back. What's the run game stuff that works with the past game stuff that works and maybe bridge it and tie it all in together. We've talked about many times on the show. Good teams find different ways to win. I think this very good offense has already showed they do both well. And I think that coming out of the buy is they're going to merge it. Now those play action looks are going to look when they're in the gun.

It's not going to be so, you know, they're going to find more runs out of the gun. They've already have, but they're going to tweak it even more. When they're under center, they're going to find more passes under center. They have them, but they're going to tweak it even more. I think just more bridging, more merging. And McVeigh is really good at that. That's what's been really cool. This offense is the last few years is how everything looks the same.

So I think now, as opposed to be very siloed as it can be right now, it starts blending and it starts blending. And it's going to be a new little salad that they work with. Siload is a great way to put it. I honestly think that that sort of transition can help their run game. They have not been efficient running into light boxes this year. And you would make, you think that their run game has looked like over the last several years,

and as more teams kind of play shell coverage in order to slow down that passing game, well, we'll just slam it into light boxes. But that marriage of the run in the past that defined who they were for the last few seasons, it started to disintegrate a little bit over the first chunk of this season, which makes sense when you're living in more of a gun, empty world. But we talk about it all the time. it's hard to flip that switch as an offensive alignment. It's hard to say we're going to be a spread-it-out team

and then we're going to be physical. You want to be able to do that, but tying those things in together just makes it easier to dial up that version of yourself as an offense. When you have more play action stuff, when you have more under-center runs tied into your under-center play action, you can just lean into that run game a little bit more than what they've been doing over the first half of the season.

So I think their run game in some of those situations could become more efficient, as they do it more often, which I know isn't the best answer when you're such an efficient passing team, but I still think that they can tweak those dials a little bit to their benefit. Yeah, they're figuring out their mix.

That's what it is. And I think, yeah, maybe it's 80, 20 right now, but getting it down to 70, 30 or something like that where how they blend everything. It's funny, like you talk about offensive line and going from, hey, pass, pass, pass, pass it, then oh, now we're running, you know, split zone. Okay, I got to get my head down.

just like any other athlete, offensive line gets into a rhythm. They're just like any other athlete. It's just like a jump shooter. It's just like a pitcher. It's just like any other athlete. That's with the offensive line. Why some of these offenses,

I know this is a totally different version, but these Shanahan Kubiak offenses, they really get everyone in a rhythm because they set everything up. Everything feels the same. You get the defenses off balance because everything looks the same. And so I completely agree. It's that it's hard to do that. It really is hard to go like,

hey, we're going to do this. And then now we're under center. We're going to pound it right up your butt. Like it's just, it's a weird mindset to just switch unless you get into four minute mode. So yeah, but man, I did like that empty stuff early in the year,

man. It's like, they're not going to get rid of it, but it's like, man. Exactly. If that's an ingredient in what you're trying to do and it's part of the recipe, I think that's okay.

But I think digging into just some of the easier stuff, making it easier on themselves, especially when they're trying to kind of settle back in. I think that's an okay. And I think that's what we're going to see. All right. Next thing we wanted to talk about, have the Eagles found a formula on offense that can get them to the playoffs? I mean, they look dead in the water.

I mean, when Nick Siriani is talking about planting seeds and watering stuff, I mean, it looked as if this was just going to be not a lost season, but just a forgettable season. A setting the deck sort of season for the Eagles. Now, their offense is firing. Since week 8, 0.09 EPA per rush, only the Colts are better running the ball over the last four weeks than the Eagles. And when you watch it, it's obvious. They played against a Saints team that led the league in rushing DVOA coming into the game last week and ran the ball all over them. When I opened that film today to watch it, it was as good as I wanted it to be. I mean, there are so many different things to consider both as a defense and as somebody who's trying to study this thing.

So when you started watching the Colts run game, what about it just was the most notable to you? Holy shit, that offensive lines playing well. Oh, my God. The pockets created. I started a threat of them because I was just laughing at every single one that I came across. Wow. It was just, I mean, I made a joke to myself was that it was like it looked like Russell Wilson when he was out of Wisconsin. when we had our domino line and Russ just got to sit back there on his tippy toes just kind of

bouncing around. He's like, I'm going to scramble now. Like, that's what it looked like. And that's in the NFL. You can see clean pockets maybe four to five times a game, I would say. If you throw the ball 30 times, I would say, you know, about a fifth of those will be a clean pocket.

I mean, it was like half, if maybe more. And it was just really, really cool to watch this team. And I know I'm talking about passing the ball, but even run the ball, they, they figured out, oh, our quarterback's pretty damn good at running the ball. maybe we should tie in our runs with that as opposed to just doing basic runs. And so I think they've identified who their queens on the chessboard are or who their advantages are. And that's their offensive line. It's Dallas Goater and it's Devante Smith.

And it's Hurts his legs. And I think they figured out they're like, okay, let's use that as much as we can. I'm still not sold on Jaylon Hertz as a passer. But as far as him creating and doing that stuff, it makes him, at least feisty because it's just like, okay, it's going to be our pain he has to go against. We run man covers. He might just run for 30 yards on third down. If we go soft zone, we go quarters of cover two, they're going to just pound it right down our throats.

You know, it's a hard mix to defend against. And we even talk about, you know, Devante Smith is just a stud. So it's a fun, it's a lot more fun unit than I thought it would be. I don't know if they're like exceptionally good, but it's fun. And I think they have their flavor that they're going with the rest of the year. If you look at a lot of the best running teams in the NFL right now,

there is a similar feel to it. It's a lot of heavy personnel. Like the spread to run approach in the NFL has not been as useful as we think about over the last decade of football at all levels. Right? You have a lot of 21. You have a lot of 12. It's just to create angles and create gaps. That's all this.

The Eagles have kind of been a little bit of a return to that spread to run approach. I was looking at some of the numbers today. 0.23, EPA per rush with three receivers on the field this season. number one in the league, comfortably better than anyone else. And when you watch it, it makes sense, right? They're getting teams in nickel, and they're just destroying them.

Because the ways that they can create a number's advantage in the run game, you're kind of so well. And what it reminds me of is it's like watching the Colts run game with a quarterback who's a rushing threat. That's how it feels to me. Because you still have elements of that Frank Reich inspired run game, right? So I remember a conversation I had with Jeff Stoutland,

who was the Eagles offensive line coach, still was there with the previous regime, carried over to this regime. And it was before they played the Patriots in the Super Bowl in 2017. And he was just talking about how they would solve different fronts and different problems.

And Kelsey is obviously a huge part of that, right? Like they would look at a front and they'd be like, well, there's no one way we're going to block this. If you want to pin-pull this, if you want to do they would have all these different ways of solving this thing. And when you watch it now, that's still there.

They'll loop guards around. They'll pinpole. They'll have all these different trap plays. There's all these different run concepts. And now you have the quarterback as a runner. So you're adding the numbers there. You watch that game against the Saints. They're just leaving Cam Jordan unblocked every single play

and allowing Mila to climb to the second level, which he's great at, by the way. So now you have a run, you have an advantage with a number. numbers because Hertz is great as a runner. You have guys that are physically just dominant at the point of attack. Dickerson is huge as a guard. He can do a ton of stuff like that. And you have guys that are great in space. Milata as a tackle is very good in space. Kelsey's really good in space. So you have all these different things and all these different types of runs coming at you. And it's a lot to deal with as a defense. It's really cool to watch. It is. The Saints were a page behind them for until the

second half. They, they, they kept trying to go in quarters and soft coverage against they, the Eagles were just pounding away out of one by three. Like what you're saying, 11 personnel, just one by three. And they're running a zone with a little bubble controller. And it was hilarious. They moved the ball, moved the ball of like two straight drives on them. And so the saints, like, ah, go man. I think it was third down. They're like, go man, here we go. And then that's when J-1 Hertz ran the power read. And it was just like, there was nobody on the entire side of the field because it was man coverage and the safety, the safety that was down. He was choked up on Godart. I would say Goat-Ar.

I was butcher's name Dowsy. Goddard. So he was choked up. And it was just, I mean, Hertz was able to keep the ball and just run right up the field. And getting into that kind of, as opposed to just his own read and changing angles to and be able, like you said,

maybe run a little gap read, all that stuff, you know, all that power read stuff. It's just different ways to attack a defense. Like, because now as opposed to just being very static with your look, it's like,

no, they're just changing it up. You see a lot of coaches when they're like, oh, we got an athletic quarterback. which runs zone read and it looks basic as hell and it's just like something from like it's like Colin Kaepernick for 12 years ago you know 10 years ago instead it's like okay they actually truly are understanding how to use that if that makes sense they're actually going like okay

how do we flavor this up how do we formation this up so it seems like they they understand what they have which is a compliment to their coaching staff and yeah it's it's hilarious you said that with the the frank right i mean it makes sense like that makes erronei like that makes a ton of sense that someday influence. And I totally see that, too. That's a great call. And it's funny because we talk about how zone running games allow your offense to be right when your offensive line maybe doesn't have the best players.

The Eagles offensive line is capable of physical dominance. Yes. So when you have those plays where you're just allowing guys to get free on to the second level to block linebackers in space, they're just swallowing them up. Like this is, we've talked about this with the Eagles a couple times recently. You think about this team and whatever you think about Hertz in his future, now you got my lot at one tackle. Lane Johnson crushing people on the other side.

Lane Johnson is 31 and he's healthy. And now, so it's like, all right, you got two bookend tackles. Dickerson is a piece of the future in the middle of that offense for whatever position he ends up playing. Let's say Kelsey retires, whatever. You have pieces up front. You have Devante Smith. You have Dallas Goddard who just signed a contract extension. It's like, all right.

All right. And this transition into being a run first team. after not running the ball for the first month of the season for whatever reason, I mean, they have really found something here starting with the Lions game. And they're going to be a pain in the ass to deal with simply because it's a talent thing up front and it's a numbers thing with the quarterback. When you have a talent advantage and a numbers advantage, you're going to be a pain for anybody that has to stop you.

And that's going to be true until teams start really loading up. And if they're going to play an 11 personnel, and they're going to have three receivers on the field, you got to make a decision somewhere. You got to create a vulnerability gets created on your defense somewhere when you have these talent and numbers advantages. And that's what we're seeing with the Eagles right now. I mean, even just the passing attack, they got, I mean, having a tight end and a receiver like Devante Smith, like that's just good synergy.

Like that's what you want. And it's like those guys can, okay, so if you want to go single high, you want to run man, how many safeties are going to keep up with the tight end? How many are you going to keep up with Devante Smith? If you want to go cover three, okay, well, let's work over the field to the tight end. over it backs. I can catch the ball. If you want to,

you know, it's just that they have answers, even if it's an unusual way that they're creating them, they have them. So it's, yeah, that's pretty good place to be sitting in

where it's like, well, a team does this to us. Well, we'll just do this to them. You get to dictate things. And you can tell against the saints. I don't think the saints were ready

to be dictated. Also, because in the second half, they started running cover three. They didn't run cover three. The whole first step, that's what it felt like, it was cover three.

And it was like, oh, they went to half time to go, okay, no more quarter shells against, like, they went on the whiteboard. Like, no more quarters like coming out of the half because we're just tired of get run on. That's what it felt like in that third quarter. So I'm just very, yeah, I, and I'm looking at what the Eagle schedule is going to be. And they might do just to quite a few teams that they play down the road.

All right. Our next one here that I wanted to talk about is the Niners offense. And specifically, what's different about this version of the Niners offense? This team is third in offensive DVOA. They were one of the most efficient offenses in the entire league. And their passing game has also been really efficient in a way that I think is a little bit surprising. So when you went back and you watched this Niners team over the last couple games, what's different about this version of the Niners-Shannahan offense compared to the ones that we've seen over the last couple years?

Man, it's, they've run their stuff, but it's, it's their use of 21 personnel. I would say they've always used it, but how they're tweaking it now. It's not just eye formation. We have alluded to it plenty of times. where they just move juice check around, where they move all their guys. It's something that Shanahan has kind of done the last couple of years. And now it's like,

okay, we've seen the final, we've seen the Pokemon evolve. Now we're seeing the Charzard version of this, this weird, wacky offense that they're doing. But like even that drive against the Jaguars, the opening drive where they had 20 plays,

just like the formation families they get into. Like an offense, or when you're breaking down, there's formation families, an offense and the defense. How I've known it's three by one and two by two, one by three, pro, which is eye formation stuff,

slot, which is, you know, two receivers on one side and then heavy. There's a couple others, but that's the gist of it. And on that first drive, it was like, they're in 21 personnel at all these plays. They motioned the bunch, which is three by one. They went king slot, which is pro, you know, pro slot. They motioned juice check out to three by one and created a three by one and passed the ball. They went to one by three speed motion.

They kicked out with that. They went two by two dot, which is like a pro style two by two, you know, two tight ads, ace, as some people call it. But it's like, this is all out of the same formation. family or I'm sorry for personnel family so imagine a defense going 21 it's not eye formation coming at us it's not just toss outside zone coming us again and again and again it's like they might be spread it and out they might be like juice check might be split out and there's a receiver in the back field or you know a run a back out split out just that variation that they have I would say

the number one change number one change or thing that's a little different is how much power they run they run a lot of they run a lot more gap schemes which they did last year last couple of years but a lot more this year and also how they you use it because it's not an i formation no lead counter or anything like that it's that speed motion with the kickout you could see some you know raven's influence almost in there yep and utilizing that i would say that's the number one tweak with it but it's it's cool like i was really enjoying watching this and i always enjoy watching a shanahan run game but just how they just mess with that personnel and just use these shifts and motions and get create these formations out of the same

personnel grouping is really really cool the speed motion thing is the thing that jumps out to me the most and use check specifically, right? Yeah. So he'll be lined up as like an H-back, just off the line of scrimmage, tied to the formation, like a tight end almost. They'll send him in speed motion to one side, and they just create numbers and angles

on the other side of the formation. The Ravens do that a ton with Ricard. It gets just a way to quickly change the numbers in your advantage and to quickly create angles for yourself in the run game. And their Niners doing that all the time. And beyond just the ways they're lining them up, you know, as an H-back, as a full-back, whatever, The play that jumped out to me, and this is an extreme example, right?

There was a play right before they kicked the field goal against the Jaguars, a 20-yard field goal that crushed my soul, them kicking that thing. On fourth and one, on third and one, they lined up in an eye formation look out of what is technically 21 personnel, okay, except no one was in the position they were supposed to be in. It was awesome. George Kittle was the I-Formation fullback instead of the three. tight end. Debo Samuel was the I-Formation tailback instead of a receiver. Jeff Wilson was the receiver to the left side. Brandon Ayuk, this is my favorite one, was lined up as a tight end with

his hand on the ground to the same side that Jeff Wilson was on. And then use check was the number one receiver to the right side. Yeah. The defense responded how you'd think they'd respond. No one had any idea where they were supposed to line up. Yep. Any idea. So on the play, Wilson just gets lost in the wash. He's wide open. No, or with the 20 yards. He slows down, Jimmy overthrows him. It's just like a bummer of a play.

That is an extreme example. But that gets to the core of what this offense is and why it's hard to defend. Now having Ayyuk back in there and having him as somebody who can win on in-breakers as an aspect of this offense is really nice. Because now you have two guys that can win over the middle of the field with him in Depot. But the other thing is you have interchangeable pieces positionally. So the fact that Debo can play running back for you, the fact that George Kittle can play fullback, the fact that you can play fullback or tight end, all of that stuff, it's just little tiny bits of confusion. It's when you line up as a defense, it's like, who's there? Why is he there?

What's my responsibility on this now? And when other teams do this, right, especially lining up receivers in the backfield, it's to create mismatches in the passing game. Like that's what you do. Justin Jefferson did it on an option route against the Packers last week. We talked about it. Debo can actually run the ball. Yeah.

Like he's his body type and his skills that he can actually run the ball. So you have all of these guys that it's not just doing it to do it. It's not one-off plays. Their offensive philosophy is baked into this idea of, Everyone can line up anywhere and everyone can do everything. And it just is a nightmare to deal with. And that's what we're seeing right now. Yeah.

That not one off line is exactly it. So much of this, like you said, we're putting the receiver in the backfield. That's usually you see it in the red zone or hey, CD Lamb, we're going to go. It's situational. It's when I say game planning plays. That's what those are. They're game plany plays. You haven't been for a week or two and that's it.

No, this is, this is their base offense and that they could just get to this. it's that that play that overthrow Wilson I want to call it overthrow but the miss the miss touchdown they ran the same formation earlier in the drive and they and they ran out of it and so Allison they come out into it again and you can see the defense going like oh it's this again like and then they snap the ball in the quick how many we talk about it all the time about having the wrinkles with the jet motion like you know just that jet motion right it makes a defense hesitate for that split second and that's what you want now imagine it's motion shifts and then also the X's on the chalkboard are not where we think they're going to be line. find out. That is, it's so much hesitancy if a defense is not prepared for it. They're going to take it's, it's, it's a league of kind of like everybody parity. You know, you only have so many advantages. So creating this extra 5%, 10% is like ridiculous if you can do it play after play after play after play. Because at one point, someone's going to make a mistake. At one point, that practice squad nickel who's been there, you know, who has been on active roster for one week is also going to go, I thought that we were a man and I had number 19. Why is he?

in the backfield. And you could see the Jaguars that happened a couple times. They would motion the guys and they're, the guys are coming back into the box and they're like, am I supposed to be in here? Like, you know, am I supposed to be covering this guy? It's like, yeah, that's your rules. And just manipulating. We talk about manipulating and setting, you know, not just setting the tone, but dictating.

That's what they're doing with this stuff. And it's really fun. Like I knew it would be fun to watch, but it's even more than I thought because it's not like they're running the craziest concepts in the world. They haven't revolutionized much. They just have this personnel that can do it. do it and they do it really well. And also it's amazing to watch George Kittle block again. We did a couple of weeks ago. We did the mailbag about favorite players to watch.

And I got to I'm at amending, I'm throwing George Kittle on there because it's so much fun to watch. We've talked earlier this year about the shortcomings of the Kyle Shanahan era in San Francisco and where it's been disappointing. And it has been in some ways, right? They have misstepped in personnel many times. They've made a lot of mistakes. but this is why it's impossible to not get excited about it in these moments. Because even if there are holes on their roster, even if there are spots where it's like, oh man, like Daniel Brunskills out there again, huh?

Like that's what we were going to do. You still have, we talk about queens on the chess board. Getting to watch an offense that makes things easier on their guys consistently and also features the best two-way tight-eyed than the end. NFL, the best left tackle in the NFL by a lot right now. Like he is, he is dominating the game. He is doing stuff in the run game no one else can do, which allows their run game to unfold in the way that it does.

So you have the best tight end. You have the best left tackle. You have, I'd say right now, the best player with the ball in his hands, like, Debo's ability to create in space. I think that absolutely he's in the conversation. He's on the podium. He's on the podium. Yes.

So even if there are holes and deficiencies on the roster, there are still enough blue chip guys combined with the way that Shanahan does this where it's like, fuck, man. Yeah. Like, they can still just run over teams. Like, they're still going to be so hard to deal with when everything's back in place. Now that Kittle is there. Now that Iyuk is in the lineup instead of Muhammad Sunu or Trent Shurfield or whoever,

it's, I don't know, man. I feel like Pacino and Godfather 3. Yes. Every time I'm out, they pull me back in. And that's what it is. It's just, you have to take the good with the bad. And the bad, when it comes to the way they've managed this roster at times and what the lack of vision says, it's so funny how there's a lack of team building vision and it's completely contrasted

with the purest offensive vision that exist in the leak. Like the fact that those two things are at odds with each other is so hard for me to reconcile. Right. You can set up drives. He could set up plays for two quarters later. But it's like, no, we're talking about long term this. Like anything passed a week. It's like you're just praying that they do something right.

It's almost like those are two different jobs. Right? Right. I mean, we've, we've, there's only a few people that have done it well. So it's, it's, it's honestly, that's exactly it. I, I'm glad he said the Godfather part three line because that's exactly how I felt. I went back and, watched it and it was just like this is fun jimmy g's gone exactly where he needs to go with the

ball like you said i thought brownskill was going to be getting his buttwipped they've hit him they've figured out a way to make it work and it's you know they went against the ramps he had to go against erin donald a couple times they managed and they did fine and it was okay it's that's exciting that's really really exciting and did you see the splits on by the way this is random play did you see it there's a splits on in josh allen like you've talked about uh josh allen or d n's just crashing on boot, you know, crashing towards a quarterback, just sprint right at the quarterback. So they ran split zone. Kittles going across to block him. And Josh Allen got so up the field. Kittle was like, uh, he just got wasted. He was kind of like, I don't know what to do here.

So the next drive, they ran it again. And they had Kittle just loop around Josh Allen and lead. And he was out in space. And it was just like they created like a plus two blockers for the running back. And I think the runner back got tripped up or whatever. But it was hilarious, like seeing him tweak it. I'm like, we're not even to block him because he's going to run at Jimmy G. So that was kind of, it was kind of funny. But it was like, they're seeing that stuff. now. They're able, not only able to see it, but now able to take advantage of it because now they have their guys in place. And yeah, it's, it was fun. It was really, really fun watching that Jags game especially. The other interesting part of it is, you know, we, so often we attribute this

super play action heavy approach to what they do in the passing game. They've toned it down this year. Yep. I mean, I think he's like outside top 10 in play action percentage. Right now if you're looking at it, Jimmy Garoppel is 16th. Amongst. full-time starters in play action percentage this year according to PFF. He's used it on 27% of his dropbacks. Wow. That's still a decent number,

especially compared to five years ago. In 2016, Matt Ryan led the league at 25%. If you're, that to me, I truly believe this. I think in terms of schematics in the NFL, the uptick in play action is the largest departure we have seen or it's the biggest change

to the league that we've seen I think in the last five years. But just when you look at what used to be the highest mark in the league and now what is average, it's Titanic how different it is right now. I mean, there are teams. I mean, the dolphins are in their own zip code. Dolphins are using play action on 42% of their dropbacks.

That's because of all the RPOs. Yeah. But, I mean, the Kyler's at 36%. Lamar's at 35%. I think that certain types of quarterbacks have changed this. But if you look at it for the most part, I mean,

you have almost, you have nine quarterbacks at 30%. 30% used to lead the league. That shift has been so huge. And that's why it's interesting to see the Niners go away from it. Like, their passing game right now, just quick. Just get the ball out of his hands, like quick end-rakers. And it's, which is, it makes total sense, right?

They're not looking for the shots anymore. And I don't know what it looks like over the long term. If they can't push the ball down the field and they have to play this ball control passing game. But right now, it's just been curious to kind of watch them transition away. from a play action heavy approach and just wanting him to play point guard a little bit more. And what's fun, though, is that you know he has it in his back pocket. It's not like Shanehan just goes, oh, what happened to that play action stuff I used to run? I never, you know, it's all that, it's such a great point because all that boot stuff,

all the heavy play action and everything, it's changed the flavor of it, everything. Because now, a million times we've talked about how aggressive defenses work down now and how they want to keep everything an umbrellaed and keep everything just on top of everything and play action is the one way you can influence that without having to create a high low and have to create an intricate pass concept. So I think there was a lot of guys going like, wow, that's an easy way to create a chunk play

without my quarterback having to be a superstar. And that's kind of been cool about it. But it's like you said, it's kind of funny that the team that was leading the way in that is now going like, hey, what's a zag while everyone else is zinging? Well, it makes sense though, right? It does. The play actions.

Because defenses are now ready for it. And yeah. The reason that just on a broad level, We've talked about this a million times. The reason that the play action boot offense became the hot offense in the NFL with so many teams were playing that single high Seattle system, and you're just crushing teams on overs. Right?

I mean, just think about how many overs we've seen from the Vikings and how many burner concepts you watch from the Niners team in 2019, where you have the number one receiver running off and then the deep overcoming behind it when that corner is cleared out. You can just see in your mind, You saw a million different times. Well, now that the league is shifting away from that approach, Shanahan, who helped drive that innovation in the first place,

is now shifting away from that. I was talking to somebody involved in that tree on that Niners staff this summer, about now that you're seeing all of this shell, what are you going to go? What do you do? And he said, in reference to Debo, if you are going to play defenses that make you earn it, you got to have guys that can earn it. And that's exactly what Debo Samuel is. So it's not about creating play action shots against single high defenses anymore.

It's about getting the ball to your playmakers in space underneath and letting them create for you. Like that is the shift that's happened. And the Niners embody that shift. Yep. And it's that versatility too. We've talked about like all these intricate past pressure, you know, patterns, the blitz packages and everybody's defensive rules. There's little twists and formations and everything.

everything's taught oh three by one two by two pro set you know like i talked about the formation families defensive coverage rules are taught the same way hey those are the formation families we have to look at what are our rules if we're in robber how are we going to do it if we're in the patriots one double concept who are we doubling how's everybody else work so now if you're getting those guys in unusual places not a lot of defenses are smart enough to handle that we talk about you said earlier like the eagles like playing against the eagles or or playing against the ravens like those are be like service academy teams and you have to like have a whole new game plan it's hard to be on a short week against them same with this like all of a sudden you have to go in and like hey

that quality control coach is going like okay it's just extra manpower extra mental energy all everybody on that staff has to expend and then that's just the exes and those part of it then you get the talent then you get the queens on the chess board you get brandon iuk like that's the thing about iuk it's hilarious it's like i don't trust his route running right now but holy shit is he dangerous with the ball and his hand it's he moves different he just does. He just moves different. Like his way to bend and his body control and he's, oh, it's really impressive. But now they have him and Debo that could do it. George Kittle, like led the league in yacted in a couple of years ago, all these guys that are just can pull away from guys when they

do get the ball in their hands. And like you said, it's this new wave of doing it. It's not, it's not just a quick game, all this quick game. It's not that. It's just like finding these high lows, get the ball in their hands. We get them moving. No static routes. Everything's moving in this offense. And I like that because you're just getting the defenses on. comfortable. You're changing the number count. You're changing where they attack. It's really, really cool. It's really interesting. You look at this. I mean, this is a fascinating list, by the way. If you look at dropbacks against cover three this season in the NFL, Jimmy Garapolo is 27th in the league. The only guys below him are quarterbacks that have started eight or fewer games.

Djigobi Percette, Davis Mills, Russell Wilson, James Winston, Zach Wilson, Tua. So essentially, among full-time quarterbacks, no one has seen fewer. cover three dropbacks in the NFL than Jimmy Garapolo, which on its face against a team that runs the ball all the time makes no sense. But so many defenses play shell coverage against these teams because they don't want to get burned by the explosive passplays. Like they don't want to get burned. And so it just got the back and forth. You can just hear it in my voice, like how interesting it is. It is. How the ebbs and flows of the way the league exist are embodied in what you see from the little tiny tweaks and shifts within the Niners offense.

Oh, no. Even run the power stuff makes sense because the fronts are different. Now they, the zone stuff was working for years and years. They still run it. They run toss lead zone, basically. And but then also now they run power and lead counter. And it's because the fronts are different that they're facing because they're getting two high shells.

And it's like, uh, the dominoes. Like you said, it's just, it all just starts to make sense. And it just like, yeah, just one thing falls another. And then you just wait for the swings back and like how the, how defense are going to counter that it's yeah it's fun all right last one here i want to talk about how the patriots have kind of built this offense around mac jones how they have built in my mind really the perfect environment for a young rookie quarterback and that's really come together in my mind over the last few weeks when i say that and you and you smile what about it do you think actually solves that we're like

this is exactly how you should give a guy answers and security at the stage of his career just a lot of had players around them. Like that is number one is first off they have the old line that's now getting healthy and I mean, it looks great. But even this free agency period, signing all those guys, Aguilar, Kendrick Bourne, one of our all stars, and Hunter Henry and John Huss Smith and signing those guys, it was giving them different flavors. Like really the only type of player they're missing, even though Nikil Harry should be this guy. He's more of just a screen setter now is they don't have like a ball winner. And usually when you when you have a quarterback or a young quarterback. It's like you want a guy that he could just say F it, throw up the grenade.

They don't really have that. They just more. Born is a contested catch guy though. I know. He is good in those situations. His hand-acred man. That's why the Niners just threw him out there on third down and in the red zone. Because it's like when they're playing man and we need somebody to go win the ball, Kendrick Bourne was their guy. I know. I got a little for it. I'm so cool. It was like, it's cool to see him kind of like now they're like really upping his usage and like, yeah. I know. It's been fun to watch it. But even so we talk about personnel. And then also just the system they're running. It is a system. But just the offense they're running. It's going to be QB friendly. I don't want to take anything away from Mack Jones because they're not running like a shit ton of nakeds. They're not running sprint outs every play. It's not half field. Fewer screens than I thought there were and fewer and less play action than I thought there was going to be. Correct. started digging into this. Same. I thought there would be more play action. Even in my, my,

you know, my brain, I remembered it be more play action, but it wasn't as much as I thought. And that was watching it was, man, it's just like everything's sound. We talk about sound offenses. These are good concepts. And Mac Jones is getting the ball in the right place. So you have to credit him. But he's not getting the easy cheepees. Like he's not going to run our RPOs every play. He's not running naked's every play. He actually has to progress on the stuff. But they made it to his strengths. It's a traditional, not traditional, but it's a cross-progression. reads on a lot of stuff left to right right to left i'm not saying they're like making it easier but they're like making it so it's like consistent on every play for mac jones going like okay left to right

okay boom check it down right to left hit the backside dig okay like everything kind of comes into his vision and he knows how to operate with that but it's like this is a good mixture of vets they got some cool pieces on the outside but the old line's nice the running game's really good running that i formation stuff's really nice i really do what they're doing out they're doing like split back eye formation stuff kind of like the 409 Niners do, but the Patriots have their version of it, which is, it's kind of cool. But it's, that's exactly what you want with the quarterback. He has guys he can trust that can win against man coverage so he can throw it to a spot. It's not like he has to hold onto the ball.

And then just like, is Hunter Henry going to win? No, Hunter Henry's going to win. Hunter is going to win on third down. Like that's what they can assume, which is nice. And having good protection and good sound plans. It's like, it's really what you want to see with a, with a young quarterback. And it makes sense that they rode with him. They're like, hey, he's going to have some, take some lumps early on. He might not look always perfect, but you can see where the dividends are paying off right now because he's gaining confidence when the O-line was hurt and now it's getting healthy and now it's like wow it's it's kind of cool seeing it just keeping it tweaked and tweaked and tweaked every week so if you look at it they're third in

the NFL in the usage of 21 personnel behind only the Niners who used it on 36% of their snaps by the way and the Ravens which their Niners and the Ravens kind of their own little family it's been cool going back to the Niners for a second it's been cool to watch the Niners and the Ravens offenses converge a little bit because when it was so much much more zone runs, they weren't from the same family. And they've kind of married together in a way. So those two are kind of on their own, right? But then you have New England and number three.

I mean, they're using a fullback in almost a quarter of their plays. And that physicality aspect of their game and just, it's not just putting bigger bodies on the field. Again, the layers of complexity you add with a fullback out there, just how many different running plays you can use is huge. And they run everything. You talk about, we talk about what the Eagles, we talked about it, with the Eagles, we talked about with Trent Williams.

When you can have your big guys get on the move and do work, that's what Trent Brown has given him now. Him being back hit. The way he plays in space at 380 pounds, crazy. Like absolutely crazy. So the run game and just being able to lean on that has been huge, right? It makes total sense to give your quarterback, your young quarterback, a run game. And that's exactly what they've done.

And I think, like you said, they give him answers. Like there's always an answer out there. And it's from a few of things. He always has a checkdown. He always has something built in. Like there's always a place for him to go with the ball, which sounds simple is not the case with a lot of NFL offenses. Yeah.

Like it's definitely not the case. It's stark when you see it not happen. Go watch the Bears play. Go watch the Bears play and go watch some of the shit that Justin Fields had to deal with this year and tell me that that's a normal thing. And then to me, it's how precise it all is. And their spacing on offense is one of the reason that he has answers. because if, all right, if X then Y, right?

Because if I'm going to have my outside receiver hugging the sideline in order to get that corner out of there, then I'm going to be able to have this little stick to Hunter Henry because it's open because there's space created. If you watch how far apart some of those guys are in some of those moments, there's a perfect example in the Atlanta game where Kendrick Bourne is hugging the sideline and he hits Hunter Henry on a little stick and there's just so much space. for him to work with. So when you're moving from one to two, from one to two,

and you're going through those progressions, having those easy answers by virtue of spacing is really important for a young quarterback because he knows where guys are going to be. And his ability to know where guys are going to be allows him to process and work as fast as he is right now. So it's just, it's not the craziest shit in the world, right? They're not revolutionizing anything.

It's just the soundest football imaginable. Exactly. I was going to say the good spacing from their. receivers is where the comparisons between the Ravens and the Patriots offense ends. Because it's because like you want to make a hard on a quarterback. You're exactly right. You're throwing, you can't see everything in the pocket. You're assuming a lot. And the best ones just are, you know, phenomenal. They're just unbelievable how they are able to do this. But that's because you rep it. You get a feel for each other. You're going, hey,

when I'm at this step, this guy's going to be here. I throw it to this spot against this coverage. And that's where I'm going to hit them. And exactly what you said. When you can get the back out of protection, There's so many times backs get hung up in protection because they have no idea what they're doing. Either the O-line coach hasn't coached into them, the running back coach is just like, hey, what's worry about ball control and fumbling as opposed to actually pass protection? You never know with the team. So it's getting the backout on all those plays because they have a sound protection scheme. It just speaks to their coaches.

And like you said, it's like those concepts are sound now. Now it creates a true high, low or a true three-level read for Mac Jones. And if it's going to be consistent where everyone's drilled to know exactly where they're going to be, It's pretty nice for a quarterback that he has trust. He has trust in his teammates and he has trust in his scheme. I think that's the best way to put it. There are stories, notorious stories about Sean Payton when it comes to details, about spacing, about all my moments, about receiver split with and all that other stuff.

And one of the reasons for that is they had a quarterback who at times literally couldn't see. Yeah. There were moments where Breeze and his stature in the pocket, he would have to make throws where he could not physically. see the receiver in some situations. But because he knew exactly where he was going to be, he felt comfortable throwing balls in those moments. So that's why.

Like if you know exactly where guys are going to be on the case of any individual play, it just helps you process the game so much cleaner. And that's already a strength of his. And now you only add to it by virtue of the way the offense has been built. So again, not the craziest thing in the world. Again, I'm really excited to watch. like them playing the Titans.

Like it's that Titans off our defense has been very sound. You know, they've been able to just really slow teams down by virtue of again, just being in the right spots. It's almost like the defensive version of what the Patriots offense looks like right now. It's like it's not the craziest thing in the world. It's like we're doing we're in the right spots all the time. So that matchup, curious to watch it. I mean, it's not thrilling.

It's not going to be one of these offenses where you're watching Justin Herbert. It's like holy shit every 10 seconds. But if you like football done right, that's exactly. with the Patriots offense looks like right now. Brutely efficient. Yes. This is brutally efficient. Yeah, it can be beautiful sometimes.

It really can. All right. It's time for this week's pick segment. Let's get to Sheel. All right. It's time now for this week's pick segment. You guys just can't seem to get this right. So two weeks ago,

after getting, both of you going two and one and then losing your lukewarm locks, both of you went one and two last week, but got your lukewarm locks correct. So that means you each gained three points. So, Nate, for the third straight week, you have made up no ground. Sheel is winning this 22 and a half to 17 and a half. Sheel, how are you feeling about this right now? Because you got by by the skinny your teeth on that lock on Sunday night.

Yeah, I mean, Mike Tomlin, let me know what you want. You know, beer, I mean, I know this isn't ethically, journalistically, but you see, you would have thought I had a million dollars on that game or something. The way I was sweating here watching that Steelers game, I thought it was over. They go down by two touchdowns. I'm going, shoot, you know, I'm like, I had a thought. I was like, maybe I can get out in front of this. I'll text Robert and be like, all right, I'll put some French fries on a sandwich or something.

You know, the Steelers, well, just to try to be preemptive so that you can't make me do something I don't want to do this week. So they saved me, Mike Tomlin. Thank you. I'm not feeling great to answer your question. Yeah, the confidence, I think, was at an all-time low last week. It doesn't feel that much better this week. But we'll say I do feel better about this week's games. than I did about last week's games.

The famous last words. Famous last words. All right. Nate, I believe that you're kicking us off again, right? I am. Because you guys have tied every single time since the last time that you won. Just real champions over here.

It's great. I know. It's great. We just keep having every hole. But yeah, it was, I flipped it with you. Like,

I got my lukewarm lock out of the way. And it was a great Sunday. I've never been in a better mood on a Sunday night show. It's been, it's been awesome. And I think Robert could tell that how excited I was to do that show. And yeah, but so you, you, God, I think you're going to have that towel out again. I thought that I was getting ready for the towel for the whole show again. I was ready for it.

I'm glad I didn't text here. Rub it in. But I'll start us off. I'm going to go with the Bucks minus two and a half at the Colts. And this is not that I this don't like what the Colts are doing. I just think the Bucks got their teeth kicked in for a couple of weeks, not teeth kicked in, but you know, got a little cold water thrown on them. And it's seeing how they played on Monday night, it's like, oh, yeah, this team's good. And going against a Colts team that I think they can get after. I mean, I really do. I think the Bucksill line is, I mean, really is the top unit.

I think it is right now in the NFL with Tom Brady playing at a high level, he is. I think how this Colts team, they're going to run a little soft coverages. They have been mixing up a lot more, a lot more than compared to last year, mixing up some of the stuff they do, but that's, it's Tom Brady still. It's not some rookie quarterback. It's not, you know, Josh Allen trying to figure out what they're doing right now. It's a really, really good offense that's playing really how they played on Monday night was pretty, pretty impressive, especially some of the drives early on.

Also on the flip side, I think this buck's defense, yeah, I'm not like really fully, fully thousand percent sold on everything they do, but it's still a good unit. And they still have strengths and they still have good players that do good things. And they're going against a Colts offense that, yes, they can run the ball, but what the Bucks do really well is defend the run? Maybe not to the extent they had the last two years, but they still have that front up there. So I think it's a good matchup for the Bucks. I think it's going to be a really good game.

I actually really excited to see this game. It's in indie. I'm not a real big fan of taking home. I'm going to say rogue favorites, but it's under a field goal. I'm going to go bucks minus two and a half. A lot of things to watch in this game. You mentioned the Bucks Offensive line.

Allie Marpet left Monday nights game with an oblique injury, no clarity about whether he's going to play this week. Vita Ve is also questionable for this game. You're going against a rushing offense that's dominating people right now. So that's something to keep an eye on. Nate, I wanted to find an element of this game to dig into on our show earlier today. I'm one of the segments.

And I couldn't land on anything specific. I'm just excited about the game in general. You know, the Colts defense has looked a lot better. The Bucks offense really seemed to just start clicking again with Gronk and Godwin back out there last week. The Colts are now ninth in defensive DVOA, 20th against the past. I mean, that's a little bit skewed when you think about what you really want,

how you want that to be comprised. But this is just one of those games with like, all right, like, what are the Colts? Like, are they going to be a team that makes the playoffs in the AFC? Like, are they ready to kind of play with the big boys here? Is the game against the bills? A one week fluke. So I didn't know what specifically I wanted to drill down on,

but I know I'm going to be locked into this game. That's exactly it. I really want to see what the Colts defense throws at Brady. Like that is, I'm very, because to be a real true, true, I mean, not just a playoff team, but a true make some noise in the playoffs, it's you're going to face quarterbacks. Like, you're going to face stud star quarterbacks week, week, week, like four straight weeks.

Make this a Super Bowl. but it's i want to see what they do against that i know i'm not trying to like discredit josh allen's not saying he's elite quarterback don't bill's fans don't jump down my throat i'm just saying they're probably a little quieter these days than they've been recently you rust belt fans man you it's but anyways it's but with the bills i'm sorry with the colts i just want to see i want to see what this kind of what they keep doing on defense i really this offense i kind of see their identity i mean i think we all do it's jonathan taylor and then we have a great role players all around that it's that's what it is Carson Wentz is he still has his befuddling plays, but okay, they've honed in on maybe

limiting those, maybe not so many RPO's that maybe they're trying to get them some cheap throws early on and making it more one to two, but it's not make a mistake. So that's really what I want to see is like if they can continue what they showed last week or is this just going to be another little blip up and then they blip back down. I want to see consistency out of the Colts, but I just want to see the bucks. I trust the bucks already. I know this offense can put up points. And but hey, you know, you did have a two game losing streak. You had a nice game on Monday night against the zombie giants. So we'll see this, a feisty cold scene, what they do on offense.

All right, Shiel, what's your first one? What do you got for me? Well, if you notice, I was kind of quiet over here. I was trying not to have an expression on my face. I think this has happened one time before this season. I'm on the same side as Nate. My first pick right here is bucks. Now, Nate, it has moved.

I checked right before we signed on. We don't get that extra half point. Is it three now? It's three. So hopefully, you know, maybe it'll go. back to two and a half if this is a game you like because i loved it at two and a half i'm like oh yeah you know give that to me three it's a little bit tougher i mean you guys just broke it all down so i i didn't want to uh interrupt there but i mean there a couple the colts my thing with the colts and i feel like

listen i i've lost on them probably a lot this season their plan a is really good if they can just push you around and have a game like last week where jonathan taylor's running all over you and they're playing sound defense and they're turning the ball over like they can play with anyone I don't think they have much of a plan B. You know, let's say it's a game where the run games not working. Carson Wentz has averaged under six yards per attempt in four of his last five games. I mean, so, yeah, they're not asking him a lot to do a lot, even when he's being asked to do something. Like, it's okay.

He's not turning the ball over. You know, he's had some plays where you look at it and say, all right, that could have been a turnover. I thought he was pretty clean last week. He had the great scramble. But it's really a type of offense where it's like, don't turn the ball over. give us like five plays, whether it's with your arm or with your legs every week, and we can win that way. And I'm not knocking them for that.

You know, that's a fine formula. It's worked for them. Taylor's been amazing. No doubt about it. But I feel like going up against this Bucks team that really, like, this is time. This is time to get going. We saw it last year. Get everything together.

Go win that one seed. Get the buy in the first round. I have home field throughout. And you're getting it at a field goal or less. And you're getting healthier. They got Murphy bunting back last week. Gronk played last week. And so, you know, it's not quite a pick-em, but, you know, at the same time, when you're getting three or under with the Bucks, I like Tampa in this game.

Yeah, it's hard to argue with that. I just think that the Bucks are truly one of those elite elite teams. And I don't think the Colts are in that tier. I mean, as fun as they've been, for as interesting as they've been, that's kind of where I am, Nate. I think that that's the tone of our conversations around the Colts. They're interesting. I don't think they're dangerous. And when you are playing against this Bucks team that absolutely is, that's where that little gap exists. All right, Nate, what's your second one? Second one, and this line also moved.

It started at five and a half is now at six and a half. I'm going to go with the Patriots at home hosting the Titans. And loved it at five and a half. It's still at six and a half, so we're under a touchdown. Like I said, Patriots at home, I mean, this unit, this defensive unit for the Patriots is so fun to watch, just how they can mix it up, how they can get into pressures, how they can run man, they can run soft zone, all the stuff we've seen for Belmont. check over the years, but just, you know, just a real high version of it or a high level version of it.

On the flip side, on the offense, they are a little more, like, it's a high spread for what this offense really is. They are more of a methodical, efficient offense than an explosive one. So it's kind of hard for them to really blow the doors off a team. They have a couple times this year, but it's not built that way. They're not built like the chiefs. They're just full court press the entire game. They're more of like an anaconda that just going to strangle it out of you. And but I, but under a touchdown, I do like that. I think this Titans team with all the banged up injuries, they're finding their identity on offense, not finding, but just trying to do something on offense. And really with Tannenhill all being put on him, this is not the matchup I want for a Tannenhill heavy game.

And that, you know, this is a Patriots defense that wants that. So I think the one way they could, Titans can find a way is, yeah, okay, Adrian Brown's healthy, but he's banged up ribs. He was out twice. He took himself out twice. I not took himself out. him not he was hurt so not trying dog him but you know who jones is hamstring derrick henry's out like all that kind of stuff it's just a team that kind of has you know they're they're in the deep end right now on offense and then defense i do like what they do up front but this Patriots offense

can get after you in a few ways they have a great run game if they're going to keep you in base hey we've talked about it the tight that titans front like yes they have a really good up front four guys and their linebackers are really fun run hair on fire guys but those are light small bodies and we're going to see an I-Formation Patriots team just pounding away at them over and over and over and you got to see how much that can hold up for four quarters and it's at home so you might have some some headset issues you never know so I'm going to go with the Patriots minus six and a half Brable will be ready for that he'll be I know right all right all right chill what's your second one all right I don't think I don't think I've picked them all year this is the this is the hometown team

I'm going with the Eagles minus three and a half against the Giants. And to me, this is, you know, when we talk about picking these games, it's kind of like, it's not quite an emotional hedge, but it's like either I get the pick right or I get the, or I'm going to be able to crush the Eagles next week. So that's like, you know, to me, in the way my mind operates, like that's really a win-win. I nodded my head when you said that. I was like, yep, I get it. You were nodded.

Yeah, good one. Good call. But, I mean, really just matchup-wise, if you look at the line of scrimmage, on both sides of the ball. I mean, the Eagles offensive line has been unbelievable. They go up against the best run defense in the NFL last week, and they run all over them. And then defensively, their pass rush against this Giants offensive line,

which was just a complete disaster on Monday night. They go from Jason Garrett to Freddie Kitchens in a short week. And also, I think the Eagles offense has sort of that Ravens thing going for them, where if you're, like, preparing for them on a short week, and now it's like, shoot, are they going to be, is it going to be the shot? The zone read runs. the option runs and the, you know, the different things they were doing last week with Jalen

Hirsch. Are they going to be more under center this week? What are we going to kind of get from their run game? I mean, the first six weeks of the season, I'm going, how is this not a more diverse run game with Jalen Hertz? How are they playing this way? Eventually they change, like this dramatic shift. Who knows what happened? They're Richard Colves. Midway, yeah, midway to the season, this dramatic shift. And now it's just a totally different offense where it's just run, run, run, lean into the offensive line, hit some chunk plays downfield. Jalen Hurts should get credit for not turning the ball over.

I mean, that was a real concern of mine coming into the season, whether it was fumbles or interceptions. He hasn't done that. And so it's an NFC East game. You never know. Things can get weird. But, you know, just the vibes around that Giants team, what you saw Monday night, changing the coordinator and just as bad as they are up front on both sides, I like the Eagles in this game.

You are not worried about Freddie Kitchens and about what he might dial up against you here. That's what you're saying to me. Well, yeah, I was going to make a mean joke about how the line moved once they, you know, but that would be rude. Jay, I don't need to pile on to Jason Garrett here. But yeah, I guess I don't think it's going to make a major difference when you can't block anyone. I don't think it's going to make a major difference either way. Could be wrong.

They do still have, their weapons are healthy, I will say. So if it gets into a weird game where you're not getting to Daniel Jones and some of those guys are making plays, who knows, it could go that way. when you're Joe Judge and your entire appeal as a head coach is to situate everything, it's to get your staff right, it's to be a master situationally. That is the entire argument for hiring someone of his background in that sort of gig. The Jason Garrett thing was doomed from the start. In what way was Jason Garrett an appealing offensive mind and play caller in 2020? Jason Garrett, one of the reasons the Cowboys started excelling offensively is because he took his thumb off of what they were doing over the last couple years there, giving more of the reins to Kellanmore.

I still think that the year in 2019 where they were one of the most efficient offenses in the league, he held them back because of the stuff, a few of the things that they wanted to do. This now, you're seeing the full Kellyn Moore vision in effect to think that this guy who had not called plays regularly or effectively in years was going to come in and be the answer for you as a play caller. I guess part of the appeal is that it's a high floor move. We're like, oh, he's been around. You know, this is something where it's going to be a safe choice. He's a head coach that can give me advice about how to do this. It never made sense to me.

And the fact that it came to this sort of end is one of the least surprising elements of a quarterback play caller head coach play caller relationship in the entire NFL. like three times they kind of like took to play calling and play design range for a moment. It was like Bill Callahan, then Scott Winnihan. And then it was like, Kellynnehan. And then rather than go back to Jason Garrett, we got to make sure we get another guy. And so that kind of is very telling when you have and then you're hiring them to like you just said play design. And it's it's him.

It's all on him. Joe Judge isn't going to come into that door and go like, hey, on third down, they like to do this and maybe you should, you know, run sale there. That's not Joe Judge is probably way. I'm assuming you never know with head coaches. Once they get the power, they might become. micro managers with that stuff but you can see as Dan Campbell wrestles the play sheet away from Anthony win bootleg duo um but no it's uh but I think I was talking to oh who was I talking to uh Seth Galena and we were talking about how some of these old school guys how they get the gimmee throws is so

different than maybe some of the newer guys newer play callers do new new age thinking offenses do like his way of getting a gimmey throw I was running slant flat or two you know, two slants. And it's like, yeah, maybe back in the day, quick game was good. But guess what? Defenses love that now. They love if you just want to dial up quick game to get the gamey throw. They're going to play downhill on it. So it's, you know, he just didn't have that modernness to his game. That's, yeah, I think it was doomed from the start. I completely agree with it. And the game management stuff with Judge is just a disaster. I mean, Robert, to what you were speaking on. Like, this is the, if you're this kind of head coach, that's the stuff you need to be able to. I mean,

look at John Harbaugh. I mean, he's mastering that. Yes. Perfect. Yes. Every week. And during, I don't know if you guys were watching the Manning cast, like those two, Eli and Peyton have 33 years combined, playing in the NFL. They grew up in a football family. There were at least three times during that broadcast where they're going,

I don't know what they're doing here, you know, whether it was the end of the first half or whatever. And so it's just like it's hard to see any area where kind of the coaching staff is giving them an edge right now. It's interesting that you say that, Nate, about the old school and new school coordinates. I was talking to a defensive coordinator this week. And we were talking about just the changes.

you've had to make those the way you see defense. And he was talking about how some of these older school offensive coaches, there's play calls. They call plays. Like that's what they do. A lot of the newer guys, you hear this about McVeigh all the time and a lot of the really good offensive coaches in the league,

they understand the ins and outs of every defensive rule. You can't just go out there and run plays anymore. And I think the end of the McCarthy era in Green Bay was really similar to this, where you're just running plays. And that's exactly what it felt like with watching Jason Garrett with the Giants. When you are a play caller that was doing your best work or your last work eight, ten years ago, it's a version of the NFL when it comes to those levers and those dials that no longer exists. Yeah. It's checkers in chess, not in the sense, oh, it's simple and complex, more in checkers,

every piece is worth the same. Chess, you have a queen, you have a rook, you have a knight. that is what good player colors understand. They're like, well, my queen can do this. And it seems like a lot. I mean, just look at the usage of Cadarius Tony. I mean, that's all you need to know. It's like, why are you not finding ways, creative ways, any way possible?

Get this guy, ball. He's terrifying. Yeah. If you're the opposing defensive coordinator, you're just like, shoot. You see 89 and get the ball. It's like, oh, my God. Like, yeah, you're, I mean, he moves like Gumby, but it's like, nah, no, let's put him on the outside because we have a vet that we want to put in a slot.

It's like, yeah, that's just old school thinking, not understanding your, your advantages. All right, Nate, what's your last one here, bud? Last one. I am, yeah, I think I might have to like look into the shield, the shield method. We've done this a little, a couple times, but I'm going to go with the Steelers plus four and a half at the Bengals. I love the good vibes of the terrible towel. I don't know, not really, not at all, not at all. I'm betting on Big Ben right now.

So, but Steelers plus four and a half at the Bengals, I think this is going to be a, Fis Fight. I think this game is going to be brutal. Like I really do. Old school AFC North game. I watching this Bengals team, we alluded to it a little bit on Sunday, Robert, is that it's maybe a different flavor than I was expecting. I think their strengths are really, they have a good under center run the ball or under center run game. And their defense is just very smart. It makes it really hard on offenses. They just have a lot of smart sound players. And they don't get in bad spots. Are they the most athletic team? No. But But, you know, the Steelers team is not really a team that's going to threaten you deep.

They want stuff short and intermediate for Big Ben and it's, you know, popcorn arm. And I do think, but with the Steelers team is that on the flip side is they've taken the PO out with the RPOs, even though they got a little bit too on Sunday, which was just, oh, my God, what are you doing? But I do think some more Matt Canada influences come on, some of the Canuck influence. And I just think with some of that is, I think it's going to be a tight game. And it's plus four and a half, a divisional battle. I think these teams are more, I'm hoping for the health for the Steelers defense as well. T.J. Watt coming back would be huge. We forget that how banged up that Steelers defense was on Sunday.

So that's why I'm looking at it. I think this is just going to be an ugly game. The Bengals still might win, but I do think the Steelers cover and keep it close and it's just going to be an ugly, low-scoring game. I'm actually, it's going to be an interesting game. It almost really feels like a loser leaves town match. I want to watch the Bengals this week. I mean, we talked about how the Raiders, the vibes of that game and just the trajectory of their offense. it's not surprising to see them kind of the wheels fall off near the end of that game. The under center run game point is a really good one. The mixing at 30 carries last week. And at the beginning of the season,

I was wondering if they were leaning on the run game more because they're really run heavy early in the year. And I was wondering, is that because they're not sure about Burroughs health? And then they started throwing a little bit more. But that also coincided with mixing being dinged up. So now they're kind of transitioning back into that run heavy approach. And they always wanted to do that. Like last year, they didn't have that under center run game aspect of their office.

because they were trying to spread things out for Burrow. So that was always a conscious choice from them coming into this year. And we see how run games can kind of pick up steam as the season goes along. And their offensive line, the fact that it stayed intact is really important. They're gaining continuity. Quentin Spain is playing well. So it's an interesting kind of wrinkle to this team that maybe we weren't thinking about in the first month of the year where we were excited about Burrow and Chase.

It's like, yeah, by Thanksgiving, maybe their run game will have clicked. and it really does feel like that's happening. So just adds an interesting wrinkle. It's another layer to them that I didn't necessarily expect. Completely agree. All right. What's up, Shio? What's your third one?

Now, Nate, are you going lock on any of, uh, I am not. I am. Wow. Singles, I'm bunting. We're playing small ball this week. All right. Well, here's the deal. That's my last pick.

Same side. Steelers plus four and a half. Now I have to decide. Do I want to be aggressive? you know, I've ripped these coaches every week. They're putting on fourth and one. They're kicking 57-yard field goals. Nate's not locking up the Steelers.

Mike Tomlin, how good do I feel about it? Let's give it the lukewarm lock of the league. Steelers plus four and a half. Let's try to get the plus two on Nate. Let's go Bengals. I don't care if I lose money. I was surprised by this line. I could have believed this wasn't a field goal game.

I mean, is there really a lot separating these two teams? And again, I know I mention it every single week here, but Mike Tomlin as an underdog has been like the best bet you can make 40, 20, 20, and 2 against the spread as an underdog in his career, which is crazy. You know, 670 winning for 667 winning percentage. And so I looked at that Steelers offense last week, and I'm not going to tell you they're juggernauts, but it's probably the best they've looked all season. I know statistically, certainly it was. And then defensively, we'll see if they get these guys back.

Watt, Fitzpatrick Hayden. But, man, if they get even just one of those guys back, if they get two of those guys back, they're going to be a totally different defense. And even if you just look at stuff, you know, DVOA, these are the 21st and 22nd teams in the entire NFL. So that Bengals team, you know, last week was sort of a weird game. It wasn't like they were blowing the Raiders out.

I mean, that was, what, a field goal game with like 11 minutes left or something. I feel like it was a lot of Burrow kind of making these pinpoint accuracy, throws on third down, extending these drives. There was nothing explosive. They didn't have a completion longer than 17 yards last week. He averaged 5.1 yards per attempt. He sacked three times. So I watch the bank, like I'm a big Burrow guy.

I'm probably higher on Burrow than both of you guys. But I watch that Bengals offense week to week. And most weeks, it leaves me wanting more. Yeah, I think that's fair. You know, there are certain weeks. like that Ravens game where I'm like, yes, all right, this is what it can look like. But then the majority of the weeks I'm going shoot. I feel like there should be more to this than what I'm seeing right now.

They had like a fourth and one. And I think they ran like a jet sweep to Jamar Chase that had no chance. It gets dropped for two yards. They keep giving him handoffs. He's not a handoff guy. He's not a handoff. He wasn't in college. He's not now.

So there's little stuff like that I feel like pops up every week that just kind of irks me and annoys me about this team. So I've got the Steelers Plus. four and a half. I'm making it my lukewarm lock of the week. There's no way this is going to work out from me. Bengals fans, congratulations. So Nate and I are on the same side of two of these. So if you really want to be smart, take the Bengals minus four and a half and the cold plus three and enjoy some, you know, some holiday money, you know, Thanksgiving weekend. Guys, thank you very much for doing this. I know it's a busy week with the holiday. I appreciate

you guys taking the time out to do it. Appreciate all of you for listening. Please enjoy your weekend. This time is a strange thing right now because we're recording this early in the week, but it's coming out on Friday. So please enjoy your weekend. Please still take advantage of our Black Friday sale at The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash football show a dollar a month for the next 12 months. I'm telling you, you guys really want to jump on this if you can. We'll be back on Sunday night with me and Nate.

Until then, talk to you guys soon. This was The Athletic Football Show.