The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Which outliers in the 2026 class are worth drafting?

Episode Date: March 27, 2026

This draft class is a bit unlike most draft classes. We've got off-ball linebackers, safeties and a running back expected to come off the board toward the top of the first round. We've got short-armed... edge rushers and offensive tackles. We've got a potential QB2 who made 15 starts in college. How do we make sense of all these outlier cases? Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman attempt to do so on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Host: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerSenior Producer: Katy DuffySocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Today we're talking about the peculiarities of the 2026 NFL draft. The overall quality of this class, I think, is up for debate. We have that debate, to an extent, at the top of this show with me, Derek Classen, and Dave Hellman. But I think there are a couple more layers to this discussion. We talked about one of those today.
Starting point is 00:00:20 At the top of this draft, even if there are players that we like, and players that we like that extend into the back half of the first round and the second round into the third round, It really does feel like on multiple levels, we're going to be forced to make compromises or teams are going to be forced to make compromises in this draft on certain outlier prospects that they might not have to in a typical year. Some of that is positional. We'll talk about that a lot over the next month or so with running backs, off-ball linebackers, safety is all going potentially in the top 10.
Starting point is 00:00:48 But some of it is also about physical profile, about athleticism testing, about production. So that's what we spend some time on today. talking about the guys who are top half of the first round picks, but maybe have historically short arms, are small compared to other receiver prospects, are slow compared to other receiver prospects that have gone on this range. And we tried to ask a question about all these guys and project the question I think a lot of teams has to have to ask in these situations.
Starting point is 00:01:17 Why are you compromising on this player and is he worth compromising for? It's a discussion I think we're going to revisit a lot as we get a little bit deeper into this draft process, and it is the one that me, Derek Klasen, and Dave Hellman, had a few different times today. So let's get to it. So Dave, as we dig in today's topic, I want to ask you a question as somebody who is coming a little bit later
Starting point is 00:01:47 to the draft process and just see how you process this, okay? This idea of us maybe twisting ourselves in a knots a little bit to talk about this draft where it's like, well, you know, there aren't that many superstar players, there's a lot of starting caliber players and this and that. are we just rationalizing the fact that this is a really bad draft? And are we trying to talk about it in a way that keeps ourselves interested, but in reality it's just a really bad draft?
Starting point is 00:02:12 This isn't totally rooted in the conversation we're about to have, but I wanted to ask you this right off the bat as we kind of weighed into our draft process. You know what? We didn't plan this out, but this was the last thing I was looking at before we started recording, and I'm glad we're starting here. Of course, you're not guaranteed to find the best players at the top of the draft. if there are some first rounds
Starting point is 00:02:33 that are worse than others. I'm a firm believer. There's no such thing as a bad draft. There are good players. I totally disagree with that. I completely disagree. What is your, how do you, what does that mean? It means that there are great players in any given draft for you to go fine.
Starting point is 00:02:50 But if there's three or four great players in a draft of 250 players, that is still an objectively bad draft. Not every draft is going to be 2011, right? And some drafts are 2013. It does happen. 2013, I'm so glad you said it because this is what I was looking up. The 2013 NFL draft, which is widely panned as being this just dog shit draft with no good players, gave us Lane Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Corderole Patterson, Travis Frederick, Dariusl,
Starting point is 00:03:17 Dariuslade, Travis Kelsey, Levyon Bell. Like the list goes on and on. Of course, it's not a star-studded hit after hit after hit after hit draft. But the players are there. Like the great players are there. There will be great players drafted this year. gear. You just got to find them. Could this be worse than the 2013 draft? We use the 2013 draft as an example that's like the worst one we can remember. Derek, I don't know. Is there even Elaine Johnson
Starting point is 00:03:42 in this draft? I mean, I don't know. I think what I was going to say is like if you have to list Cordero Patterson as one of the like stars of the draft class, brother, I mean, I could go on and on. Taran Armstead, Keenan Allen, Tyron Matthew. I'm scrolling down more. David Bakhtiari, Kyle Eusecheck, like there are good players in every single draft. Some are going to be more loaded than others. I would guess this is a leaner draft, but I don't, I won't get on board with the concept that this is like a draft worth writing off because somebody amazing is waiting out there to be picked by somebody.
Starting point is 00:04:18 Multiple, like a lot of good players are coming out in this draft. I'm not even planting a flag saying that I think that. I just, again, as we kind of frame the conversation around this pool of players, I'm just wondering how much of this in your mind is us rationalizing the quality of it so we can continue to talk about it with some enthusiasm or just ignoring the reality that's sitting in front of us. How do you feel about this, Eric? It's so here's the thing. I think there are a lot of fun players in this class. Like I enjoy a lot of that.
Starting point is 00:04:48 That's a curious thing. That's the thing. I think the edge class is fun. The wide receiver class is fun. How many guys do I think are like I draft him and I expect him to be, potentially a multi-time all-pro, which I think if you're picking in the top 10, that's what you want. I don't know, two, maybe three. Like, that's really as far as I can get.
Starting point is 00:05:07 And obviously, in any draft class, you're only going to really have like six or seven. But, like, when you're at half that number, it's, that's a lot. Graph classes are relative. Like, it's not, they're good, there are good players. But if it's worse than the last 10 classes, it's a bad draft class. And I don't know if that's necessarily true, but you get what I'm saying. I just think it's bullshit to, to write off an entire draft class. And like Dane and I have talked about this so many times on building the beast where we're just in this perpetual stage of like, ah, it won't be next year.
Starting point is 00:05:36 Next year is where all the fun's really going to happen. And then you watch next year's prospects play out a season and you find reasons to dislike them and pick them apart. And who knows? Maybe 2027 really will be this incredible boon. You know, like 2021 was a special draft class. 2011 was a really, really special draft class. there are years like that where you just throw a rock and hit a Hall of Fame player. That doesn't mean that there aren't good players this year.
Starting point is 00:06:03 And even if the top 15 is less sexy than what you would prefer, I think that's fun because I think there's like no curve between pick 16 and pick like 50. Like I think the caliber of player is very similar like all the way through to the end of the second round. And I think there's good value on day three as well, which if you want to call that boring, you can. I think it's fun because I think it gives more teams, more opportunities to find good players. Here's the reason that I wanted to start this show specifically on this note is that we're going to do a couple different shows over the next month or so, where we look at this class and the makeup of this class and some of the peculiarities around it. And I think on multiple different levels, Derek, this is a class that is full of outliers,
Starting point is 00:06:51 especially at the top when you compare it to other drafts. And maybe that is a better way to talk about this. I'm not trying to throw the whole class out and be like, ah, this is bullshit. Who cares? None of these guys are worth drafting. Like, obviously that's not true. But I think on multiple different levels,
Starting point is 00:07:06 even at the top of this thing, we're already making compromises with this class that we just very rarely make. And the fact that we can attack that conversation on multiple different fronts, I think, is telling. One of those fronts is, positionally where some of these guys are going to be drafted, where it doesn't often happen this way.
Starting point is 00:07:27 Like, Jeremiah Love might be a top five pick. That just doesn't happen very often at running back. Sunny Stiles might be a top five pick. That almost never happens at offball linebacker. Arvel Reese, who I'll be honest, I didn't really know before talking to more people listening to more people that there are a lot of folks out there. And we were talking about it with Trevor Sykima this week. I saw John Ledyard, who does really good work talking about this earlier this week,
Starting point is 00:07:49 that they think that Arvel Reese is an off. ball linebacker. Like, that's what he should play in the NFL. And so if that's the case, now we got two off ball linebackers that might go in the top five. Caleb Downs is in this conversation. So positionally, that's part of it. And we're going to do an entire show, I believe, next month, about this idea of positional outliers and where you draft them and why you draft them. But we're doing a different outlier show today, Derek, because there are different versions and buckets of outliers even with the premium position players. If you look at Dane's top 15, Ruben Bain, Spencer Fanow, Mackay Lemon, Caleb Downs, a lot of guys we're going to talk about
Starting point is 00:08:25 today are outliers, even independent of what position they play. And so I think on multiple different levels, this is going to be a draft where you're picking guys outside of historical norms, you're making compromises on things you don't usually have to in the top 10. And even if the overall quality is still worthwhile, that is something that's going to permeate every discussion that we have about this. So that's kind of the thing. I think if you look at the premium positions, I'm going to move.
Starting point is 00:08:51 out quarterback in this class because it's basically just Fernando Mendoza and nobody else. And I don't really think he's like an outlier in any way. But the receivers, the tackles and the edges, like almost all of the each of the top three guys at those positions are it's like short arms or it's this or it's that. And it's like Carnell Tate is is pretty clean. And then I mean, like that's kind of it. And like David Bailey's not really an outlier, but like he's a little smaller than like the prototype. Like there's just no prototypes at those positions in a way that there usually are a couple in like the top 10. So I have a question about David Bailey that I think is really important.
Starting point is 00:09:26 Would he be the first top five pick at Edge that did not wear gloves in the modern era of the NFL? He's got to be. I'm not looking that up, but it's got to be. Just no gear. Yeah. It has to be. When I started watching him, I was shocked. I was like, this is, we got like a Trey Hendrickson Sheik out here with the top five pick.
Starting point is 00:09:44 I'm not sure if I support this. Like he's 31. It's a gross. number, yeah. So, I mean, we're talking about, again, compromises in ways that I typically wouldn't be willing to make them. You got to make compromises in this draft. That is fair. So let's talk about some of these guys in the top 15. I want to just discuss this as a general idea and then we can really dig into the individual players. Derek mentioned the edges, some of the tackles. Ruben Bain, I think is, Dave, the best place to start this conversation. Because in a lot of
Starting point is 00:10:13 way, I mean, we did the exercise and on the clock on Monday. He went second. Trevor Sycambeau was like He picked him second in the entire draft. Can I just say I listened to that? And I just, I like applauded Trev while I was in the middle of walking my dog because with everything we know. So the big thing with Rubin Bain is the arm length. There is not, there is not a player like him. He would be the shortest armed defensive end, like taken in the first round definitely,
Starting point is 00:10:42 but one of the shortest arm length defensive ends taken in the draft going back to 1999. Since 2000, he has the sixth shortest arm length in the mock draftable database for edge players. And we're talking about him as the second overall pick in this draft according to some people. For Trev to do it, I was just like, you know what, man? Hell yeah, because the tape rocks. And I was actually talking to somebody this week where you look at Ruben Bain. If you went to a Miami game and just watched him warming up, you would be like, what the hell are we talking about?
Starting point is 00:11:12 Are you kidding me? And then watch him play football. Watch him play football and tell me you don't understand why he might get drafted that high. It's it's fascinating because if I'm just watching the cutups, if I'm watching Miami games, I'm like this guy, please, absolutely, before anybody else. And then it's only once you start to look at the measurables. And that stuff's important. I'm not telling you to ignore it.
Starting point is 00:11:33 It's very scary. But if there was tape, I'd be willing to bet on being the outlier. It's probably Ruben Bain. And that's why I was I was excited to hear Trev say it with his. chest like yeah the tape's that good whatever so derrick i want to hear your take on this with bain specifically before i follow up with dave because i i have a natural follow-up question to that exact point when when you watch reuben bain's tape when are you worried about the arm length like i i watched three four or five games of him and at no point was i worried about the arm length like i this is
Starting point is 00:12:08 one of the handful of guys where i am not worried about it whatsoever because of the way that he's built like if he was because he's like six two two sixty three He's a very short, squatty, powerful, built like a fire hydrant type of defensive end, which is not typically the type of guys that go in top five, but again, it's kind of weird class. But I think because he's built that way, and he's not this like 6-3-250, try to win around the edge. I need to win with my length. I need to win with my Ben type of player. I'm not that worried about the length.
Starting point is 00:12:36 Like every time that he needs to get into an offensive tackles chest, he can do it. When he needs to win inside, he can do it. Anytime he takes on people in the run game, Jesus Christ, does he do it? He just mashes people in the run game. Like I watch Ruben Bain and that to me is like in a normal class, probably a top 10 player. And then in this class where it's like there's a couple of guys who or a couple of guys that are elite that are maybe missing, I'm totally fine like taking him at that too as high as Trevor did. So I guess that's where I don't know if hangups is the right word. But when I watch it and there's like a little bit of cognitive dissonance, I think it's mostly rooted in that idea, Derek.
Starting point is 00:13:12 And that if he's going to be a top five pick, he just doesn't look. like a top five pick physically. When we think about the guys typically drafted in the top five, and I'm not even talking about what the tape measure says. I'm talking about when you watch him play football and you think about the guys normally drafted in the top 10, there's just a gap between those two things. And again, as somebody who comes to this a little bit later,
Starting point is 00:13:34 and I'm sitting there and I'm imagining like a number two overall pick next to his name and then I start watching him play, there's part of me that's just like, this guy's the second overall pick. And it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the quality of football player that we're discussing. It's just that aesthetically in so many different ways, he just doesn't look like that guy. And I was talking to Dane about this today.
Starting point is 00:13:56 And there was part of me that was like, and Dane has discussed this where there are teams that aren't in love with him. Sure. There are teams that have like real serious questions about him. And I think a lot of that doubt is rooted in this idea of, well, he doesn't look like a top five pick. He doesn't look like a top 10 pick. And there are problems with that type of thinking.
Starting point is 00:14:15 I think we can admit that, but I also completely understand upon watching him how teams arrive at that conclusion and concern. It's very scary. Again, like, we're not talking about an outlier like, oh, the arms are just a quarter inch of the threshold that we typically really like. And, you know, it's not a long list. Like, no, Rubin Bain is the list. Like that, it's a unique type of outlier when you're talking about a guy who has never, like this archetype doesn't exist for a player who's A been successful. successful and be been drafted this highly. And I mean, Dane's been saying it all year, but I can corroborate as well. Like there are, I mean, there are teams that are going to have a great on him,
Starting point is 00:14:56 a great on him and take him in the top 15. Like that, that's just a thing. And, you know, I think when you hear him talked about as, like, back in September, people talked about him as definitely the best player in this draft. And then by November, it's like, ah, maybe we got a little carried away, but he's still a top 10 player. not all teams are going to agree about that absolutely and i i don't blame them in this instance but and and i don't think i have the guts to go with treb and say definitively the number two pick
Starting point is 00:15:25 in this draft but i'm i'm comfortable like flip on the tape of him just mauling texas a and m knowing that that's a texas aanm offensive line not with not with like first round studs all over their offensive line, but the majority of Texas A&M's line is going to be drafted next month. And him and Akeem Mesidor just whipped ass all day long in that playoff game. And you just see him do it enough times to where I have a degree of comfort there. It's very unorthodox and it's not something I've ever seen before. But the body of work kind of speaks for itself after a certain point. Just like really quickly, the last thing I would say, I know these two players did not go in
Starting point is 00:16:04 the first round. So like it makes it like a weird comparison. But we do have some evidence that like this. body type can work when those guys have been healthy. Both Carl Lawson and Marcus Golden were like kind of built like this where they're like the 260 really short arms, really powerful, like really good run defenders. And I know that again, that's not like the sexiest comp, but Bain is like if those guys were like nine out of 10 athletes.
Starting point is 00:16:27 Like Bain is a, he's significantly more explosive. He's bendy. Like he's that style of player can work and he's like way super charged athletically. So like if if we're going to, I don't know if we're going to sit here and do this. for every player. It's like which side of it do you fall on? Like, I'm okay with it or I wouldn't do do that. I would be okay with it. It's obviously still a risk, but I'm taking Rubin Bain in the top five. Well, going back to what Robert said at the top of this, there's some sort of risk with every player that's going to go in the top 12 or so picks of this draft. I mean, I think,
Starting point is 00:16:57 I think you're right, Derek, like Carnell Tate strikes me as a pretty clean player. David Bailey looks the part of like a clean edge rusher and then I don't have big questions about Mendoza. But other than that, you're kind of deciding how comfortable you feel about a guy that doesn't have everything you're looking for. And that's why, like, considering that there aren't a lot of cleaner options, that helps me feel more comfortable about Ruben Bain. Even the best, I mean, the comparison that's kept coming up over and over and over again
Starting point is 00:17:26 beyond those first round guys, this player had a little bit longer arms. Again, it wasn't as much of a historical outlier, but the physical profile outside of the arm length, Brandon Graham is the guy that people keep mentioning. And I think even the idea of like, Brandon Graham was the 13. overall pick in the 2010 draft. If Ruben Bain was the 13th overall pick, would everyone, would I just feel like a little bit more comfortable with that idea rather than him being the second overall pick?
Starting point is 00:17:48 I think the answer is that I would. But again, does that just speak to the draft that we're talking about here? The funny thing, though, is I, you can't rule out that Rubin Bain will be the 13th overall pick. Like that is well in the range of possibilities. And I think that's the conversation that a lot of teams are probably having. And that's the idea of him falling to 13 because there's so much hang up over this. stuff and that discussion of and I think this is when I said I was going to come back to a point you made and
Starting point is 00:18:12 ask the question. I think with all of these guys and with every outlier that you ever come across in the draft, I think the most important question you have to answer is, is this a player worth compromising for? Like, there are other things that are so outlandish and outsized, punny, but outsize about this guy that he is worth compromising for. And I think with each of these individual guys, you have to ask yourself that question. And I think the answer sort of has to be emphatically yes. And with Ruben Bain specifically, like, there are guys who are other like outliers players.
Starting point is 00:18:46 The guy that we're going to talk about when it comes to Michael Lemon that I think is really important just because I think he broke the mold for receiver size is Devante Smith, right? Like, Devante Smith is like an all-time outlierish prospect. Devante Smith was the most productive receiver in the history of college football. He won the Heisman trophy. is Ruben Bain productive enough to allow you to kind of step outside
Starting point is 00:19:10 of some of those concerns you have about the frame? Like, are there things other than like, he's a cool player? I like some of the things he does that are so outlandish that you're like, I think he can overcome this. I mean, it's not quite the same as winning the Heisman, but I think being clearly the best player
Starting point is 00:19:26 on a national championship, like, defense, obviously they didn't win it, but getting to the national championship. Like, I do think that that is like kind of puts you up into that category. That's a fair answer. And producing, like, you know, I don't think Miami's 20, 25 schedule was quite a murderer's row, but producing in all of those moments, again, like wrecking Notre Dame in the season
Starting point is 00:19:49 opener, Florida was not good last year, but that's a team that's going to have NFL players, including their left tackle, beat up on Texas A&M, beat up on Ohio State. Like, in these moments, he showed up. Like we can talk about another guy, another guy with arm length issues because that's this draft, Cassius Howell. Yeah. Texas A&M. Phenomenal player did some really cool shit was, I believe, the leading defensive lineman in the SEC in SACs and beat up on some SEC programs. Also, watch him play against Miami and play against like NFL offensive tackles.
Starting point is 00:20:25 And you're like, ooh, that shows up a little bit. It does not show up as much when you watch Rubin Bain, in my opinion. and that gives me a greater degree of comfort. And with how, I mean, he was a productive pass rush. It being led the country in pressures. It's not even just like there are stylistic things and how he plays against the run. And I think a lot of stuff to like there.
Starting point is 00:20:43 But he was also arguably the most productive pass rusher in college football. It's just, again, I think the question becomes, was it so much production that you're kind of like, some of the other questions matter a little bit less because of that. I think everyone has to come to their own conclusion about that. I think that's true. But I also, again, what is the support?
Starting point is 00:21:01 supposedly safe alternative. But again, that gets back to the, it's more about this draft than it is about the player. And I think that's another thing we keep coming. We're going to keep coming back to it. It all works in tandem. All right, let's take our first quick break here and then come back and talk about a player
Starting point is 00:21:16 that I'm going to be willing to compromise on. I've watched a few games of Ruben Bain and I, we'll watch more as we like dig into the defensive end show and everything else. I'll say that like I wasn't, in my first pass, I wasn't like so enamored where I was like, fuck yeah, let's do this. I'm sure I may get there as I watch more.
Starting point is 00:21:34 The guy that my first pass and I was like, yeah, let's do this. I'm willing to compromise immediately is watching Spencer Fano from Utah. Really? Yes. Expound on this. A monster. The way he moves is just wild.
Starting point is 00:21:49 The way he moves in the run game, the way he pulls the moving to the second level. It's not even just that. Like the movement skills in past protection, the contact balance is unbelievable. I think that there are a lot of nuances. to his game in terms of like what his past protection plan looks like like the independent hands the way he flashes his hands like i just one of those guys where i turned it on and immediately i was
Starting point is 00:22:12 just like i'm i'm just enamored with this guy at the same time derrick this idea of he the arms are 32 and an eighth and i don't i honestly when i watch him play he got up to 32 and 7 8th said his pro day congratulations i have the rules for him okay that's still like 10th percent So that is worth mentioning, like, the last couple years in the combine measurements being so wonky and shorter than we're used to, like how that plays into these discussions, I think is at least worth acknowledging. But Derek, my issue, when I watch Fanon,
Starting point is 00:22:42 and I think the other guy, like, the thing that might come up with teams really curious about his ceiling, whether he's worth like a top 10 pick, it's not even the arm length. It's just that his frame, he's just a smaller guy. And so the power is almost more of a limiter than the arm length to me when I watch him. And that's just another layer to, like, where are you willing to compromise and where are you not?
Starting point is 00:23:03 Because the movement skills are so crazy that I could talk myself into him. But even I'm willing to acknowledge, he probably has a limited ceiling because he's never going to displace guys. I think that the, Fano is the trickiest one for me because I think I am confident he will be a good offensive lineman. I'm not positive it will be a tackle. But I just, the movement skills are unbelievable. Like, I think he's such a technically clean player.
Starting point is 00:23:29 And even though he doesn't move people, I think he commands blocks really well in that like once he gets his hands on. Yes, like once he gets his hands on a guy and like snaps his hips into like moving the guy, it's like, oh, he just takes control of the rep. It's all over. And then like you said, he never loses his balance. His feet are always with him. He's never on the ground.
Starting point is 00:23:48 Like he's just a very, very clean player in the way that he does it and checks all the movement boxes. But yeah, the frame is a little bit skinny. And it's not just the arm length. It's that when you just look at him. on film. It's almost like Ruben Bain where you're like, that just doesn't look like a top five tackle because his shoulders are kind of narrow.
Starting point is 00:24:05 Like he just, he has this like, they're a lot wider than Will Campbell's. I'll tell you that right now. Well, that is all, that is fair. That is completely fair.
Starting point is 00:24:13 I looked at our first thing. I was like, what's the, what's the wingspan compared to Will Campbell? How can I talk myself into this? And I'm like, the difference can't be that much. Oh,
Starting point is 00:24:20 it's like several inches. Okay. Yeah. Really? Okay. I think Campbell was wingspan is like, it's like 76. And I think that it found out is like 80.
Starting point is 00:24:28 well canals is 77 and 3 3 8th Spencer Fano live mock draftable on the podcast we've been doing 24 hours a day yeah Spencer Fano is up to 80 and a quarter so yeah it's a good bit longer yeah it's bigger yeah it's bigger so why are you surprised about the Fano thing I just so Fano the for me it's and it's it's both of the Utah tackles and again like I have sometimes it can be a
Starting point is 00:24:58 Sometimes it can be a hindrance. I remember going back to August, like Spencer Fano, Caleb Lomu is the other tackle at Utah, and both of these guys are candidates in August to be like OT1, to be a top 10 pick and be the first guy off the board. And they both had their moments. They're both good players. Lomu is enormous, like looks very much the part of a left tackle, but he's 21. He's a developing player. Fano is the more developed player, but is just a more of a physical outlier. like we're talking about.
Starting point is 00:25:29 And I think over the course of the year, you just didn't see them like grab the bull by the horns and just become that no doubt guy. Speaking of our man, David Bailey, like he, Texas Tech in general, because Romelo Height is the other guy. Texas Tech gave Utah freaking fits when they played those guys. And I think it's just one of those things where you hear the name
Starting point is 00:25:50 and he's on your radar. And then over the course of the year, you're just like, ah, I wanted this to go in a linear progression. And that's just not the case. And then this is completely subjective, but if you're talking about an offensive tackle prospect who might go top five, if he's doing a center workout at the combine, I'm just, and maybe like he could be a phenomenal guard or maybe even a center. Like he's definitely, like Derek said, he's going to play offensive line in the NFL and probably be a pretty good player. Will he be an upper echelon offensive tackle? And if he's not, is that worth a number, like a three to five overall pick?
Starting point is 00:26:27 And I don't know the answer to that. I don't feel as good about it, which I can understand there's some incongruities. Thank you so much. Incongruities there with Ruben Bain. But with Ruben Bain, I'm just like, ah, just kick somebody's ass and get after the quarterback and it'll probably all, it'll all even out in the wash. But like if I'm drafting a guy top five and he might have to play guard or even center, it just dampens my enthusiasm a little bit.
Starting point is 00:26:54 Where are you at on this? I think that's a little bit where I'm at. If you're going to try to make the optimistic case that he can play tackle, there are some guys who look like this. Luca Decki has a very similar build to him, and so does Bernard Raymond. And those are both like pro bowl level tackles. Second and third round picks. Second and third round picks, exactly.
Starting point is 00:27:14 There are not guys that you take inside of the top 10. And so that's kind of, I mean, I did the same thing with Rubin Bain, right? Where I'm talking about like, these are guys that can work. And they're like third and fifth round picks and stuff like that. And so these guys can work, but you're trying to thread. I need a little bit. So I think ideally, like, if he's up for it, I think he would be a phenomenal center. Like, the movement skills are perfect.
Starting point is 00:27:32 Like, I think the frame fits better. Like, if he could do it, if he could handle that mentally, I think he would be sensational there. But even if you think that he can be, like, the third best center in the league, centers don't go top 12 in the draft. Like, that just doesn't happen. And so I think it just puts teams in a really interesting position. If they whip ass, should they?
Starting point is 00:27:50 Like, I mean, I'll argue against myself here. Like, I was the guy standing up for centers a couple weeks ago. When he's never done it, you just don't know, right? I think that's part of it. And I also just think that we, we're going to do an entire show about this. But the idea of positional value is like, it's very real. Like the resources that you have to allocate to the positions. And now obviously, maybe that changes because of the way that Tyler Linderbaum has moved the center market.
Starting point is 00:28:16 So maybe that discussion starts to shift a little bit. But this idea of the markets, the way the league rewards certain positions. positions financially dictates value when it comes to drafting guys in the first round because like if you i don't know exactly where the numbers lie but like running back is always the best example to use with this so let's go with running back if you draft their running back in the top five jeremiah love becomes hypothetically the sixth highest paid running back in the league whatever right even if he is immediately the sixth highest paid running back in the league you had no moments where that contract was of any sort of value to you and i thought hayden winks did a very
Starting point is 00:28:53 good job of this was something he did on Twitter last week, our buddy from Underdog, talking about this exact idea. And again, it's something we've discussed a lot, but I think he put a really fine point on it. Kyle Hamilton was the one that I thought he did a really, really good job of articulating this. We had this idea of Kyle Hamilton as this player
Starting point is 00:29:08 who fell in the draft and fell further than he should have in the draft. Kyle Hamilton was the 14th pick in the draft. Go look at the contract that Kyle Hamilton now has is the 14th pick in the draft. And go look at all of the players drafted ahead of him. and what they are going to get paid on their second contracts, it is going to be significantly more than Kyle Hamilton.
Starting point is 00:29:29 And so even in the moments where we think we can step outside of positional value in the first half of the first round, it often comes back to this place where you're not actually getting that much excess value. And so I do think that, like, we can talk about this all we want. And it's not about on-field impact. I think that is one of the biggest gaps that comes up when we're having this discussion. it's not when we're talking about linebackers and you're saying, well,
Starting point is 00:29:54 linebackers don't impact the game in the same way. So that's why you can't draft them high. That's not true. Like Fred Warner impacts the game in the same way that other elite players do. But if the mark doesn't reward doesn't players that way, then they're inherently less valuable. The thing I did with Ashton Genti last year
Starting point is 00:30:10 was that if you miss on Ashton Jensi with the seventh overall pick and you miss on Armand Membu with the seventh overall pick, the end result is the same, right? Like you missed on the player. But the upside is so, much higher with Membu than it is with Ashenji that you're incentivized to pick Membu with the seventh overall pick. It's like
Starting point is 00:30:26 the downside of the bet is the same and the upside of the bet is 3x. And so you have to weigh that when you're making this decision. And so I want to believe in the players at positions that are of less premium positions. I want to argue that they should go higher in drafts. But like
Starting point is 00:30:42 ignoring the practical realities of what that means is silly and we shouldn't do that. And not to keep beating a dead horse though, but like And that's what makes this draft so interesting to me is all of that stuff matters. But if the solution to the problem isn't there, what do you do? I think they like, I mean, it comes back to the gentie thing where it's like, okay, you have to think about the likelihood of the bet paying off, right?
Starting point is 00:31:09 If the bet, if the pay is 3x, but you feel so much better about the gentie bet hitting because he's a safer prospect, like, even if the payoff, if your payout, on a really, really high-end tackle prospect is 4 to 1, but it has a 25% chance of hitting, but Genti has an 80% chance of hitting. Like those are the different sorts of calculate. Those are the things that you have to think about as you're making these bets.
Starting point is 00:31:33 But the problem is that I always come back to this, that we're not good enough at figuring out who the safe prospects are to justify that line of thinking as often as we follow it. I think that's mostly true, but I do feel like at running back when a guy is like a top 10 pick, that guy turns out good like every time. now. And so maybe we're just on like a heater, but who? What about Melvin Gordon?
Starting point is 00:31:55 Heard and Beller's feelings. Did Melvin Gordon go in the top 10? Also, that was like 13 years ago. I think, I'm just saying there are top 10 picks at running back. What about Leonard Furnett? Okay. I mean, that's a good one. And that was still 10 years ago. Everyone since him has been sensational.
Starting point is 00:32:14 Leonard Fournett helped the Bucks get that Super Bowl. Running back, and this isn't a worthwhile conversation to be having about running back. I think you and I've talked about this. Derek where I was talking to somebody with a team recently and they were discussing that running back, we almost might be in a place where it's worth spending these really high picks on running backs because those are the true difference makers at the position. Like they're thinking it kind of shifted on that. And so I do think that there is more momentum for that approach to running back, Derek,
Starting point is 00:32:41 than it might seem based on like recent history and how we think about it. And I also do think Leonard Fournett is actually a good jumping off point because he was not a super valuable pass catcher. Every other top 10 running back since him has been able to give you, like really high quality third down ability like Bajon Robinson and guys like that. And so I think that's maybe been part of the difference too, is that the elite, like we now only consider you an elite running back if you can also do that. I just think what you're bringing up like last year and ironically Armand Mimbu
Starting point is 00:33:13 wasn't even the first offensive tackle taken. But if there was an Armand Mimbu at the top of this draft, then I'd like, it wouldn't even be a conversation. People are dying to have an Armand Membue in this draft. And instead, you're trying to squint and see it with good players. Don't get me wrong. But you're trying to make it work with guys that just don't have the physical traits,
Starting point is 00:33:36 at least to go in a range like this. The physical traits point cuts me off the joke I was about to make. It was like Spencer Fano was the Armand Membub in this draft. We should just stop searching for them because he's sitting right in front of us. But no, I think what you're saying is correct. Let's talk about Mackay Lemon as part of this discussion. But before that, we're going to take one more quick break. So Lemon is honestly, like Fano, I think, again, just to put a point on it,
Starting point is 00:34:01 I think every concern about his ceiling. And again, it's not even just the arm length, but it's the size and the power and some of those concerns. Like, I absolutely think there are, there's reason to push him a little bit further down and not compromise on a player like him, even if I do love a lot of what he's bringing to the table. Lemon, I think, becomes arguably, in my opinion, the most interesting discussion with all of this.
Starting point is 00:34:23 Because he's not like a huge size outlier or athleticism outlier, Derek, but he is in some ways. So, Mikhail Lemon from USC, who day and again, has in the top 15 of this draft, he's 511-192. Okay. So he's very similar to Ladd McConkey in size. He's incredibly similar. And this is the cop. Everyone has made. It's understandable on a bunch of different levels.
Starting point is 00:34:45 Tom on Ross St. Brown. Overall build, athleticism. So when you look at guys that were less than six foot and less than 195 pounds to go in the first round over the last 15 years, a lot of those guys, you'll sense a theme as I list these off. Ted Ginn, Jalen Waddle, Chris Lave, Tavon, Austin, Garrett Wilson, all of them ran sub 4-4. You're naming a lot of fast guys. All of them. They were all at least receivers that had a vertical element to their game that ran a sub 4-4. What was McCoy Lemon's 40th time?
Starting point is 00:35:16 I mean, I think they said 4-4-8 unofficial, but I don't buy it. I think the real time was like 4-5-6 or something like that. Let's just be generous and say it was 4-5. Even that makes him an outwire as a player less than 6 foot, less than 195 pounds, Derek, that will be drafted in the top half of the first round because almost all the other guys who have done this are speed receivers who have a vertical element to their game in a way that he just doesn't. His 8 out was like 10.3 yards last year. and more and a lot of them were guys who were more even played outside in college even if they
Starting point is 00:35:48 became guys who maybe played a little bit more slot like matthew golden is not that different of a size but he was uh played a lot of outside and ran a four two nine Xavier worthy was obviously smaller fastest man alive um zay flowers also a guy who played a lot more outside in college also ran really fast like was the 20 second pick in the draft exactly exactly we're not talking about like a top 12 pick here he falls because again the super short arms uh all that stuff and so Lemon is an interesting one because I think for me if you just look at him for me at wide receiver I'm like that's not a first round pick
Starting point is 00:36:19 like you just that size that's if you're not an elite athlete shocking to hear Derek say this you know at least guys like Garrett Wilson is like okay that's an elite athlete or you have to be Devonto Smith where it's like you are so undeniably good I'm gonna let you get away with it and I think Lemons are good player but he's not that Derek have you watched Derek have you watched Denzel Boston yet
Starting point is 00:36:40 funny enough even though i'm a sizist i don't love him we'll get to that at some point i'm shocked okay you bucked that trend at least yeah i i there are a couple of other big receivers i like in this class but boston i was a little more like he's he's okay um but when i watch lemon i see more of like a calil shakir type and like that's a good player you can't take that in the top 15 like that's absurd to me that feels like a low end comp for it compared to the people who like Like Mackay Lemon, I'm sure they would hear that and spit in your face. So that's the other thing. I was not quite as impressed by his tape.
Starting point is 00:37:18 I think he's a good player. I think the use cases are very obvious. That cannot be your best wide receiver. And I don't want to draft not my best wide receiver in the top like 12. I feel like you and I talked about this on a different show. Like why? Why does he need to be your best receiver? Like just I'm looking at, I'm just looking at the top of the-
Starting point is 00:37:39 He's not going to be, he should also be able to play outside. He should be a Jalen Waddle. He should be a Devonza Smith. And he can do it a little bit, but he is a slot to me. The Cleveland Browns are the only team picking in the top half of the draft where Mackay Lemon would be the best pass catcher on their team right away. Right? Does that sound accurate to you?
Starting point is 00:38:00 I'd have to pull up the draft board. Yeah, probably. I mean, like, and I'm cheating a little bit by including tight ends like Bowers and Trey McBride and stuff like that. I guess you could make, I guess you could say Tennessee, probably Tennessee. Tennessee. But I don't expect Tennessee to take McKinnell and the top five. Yeah, they're not.
Starting point is 00:38:15 But like Washington, New Orleans, Kansas City, Cincinnati. I guess if Miami took him, he'd be the best receiver on the dolphins. But Dallas, L.A., Baltimore, Tampa, like all these places he could wind up. He doesn't need to be your best pass catcher. And I understand the ideal is to get that guy, but I don't know. That's not this draft. And I think that's okay. So again, I want to, with all of these, I think the most important question you can root these discussions in is, why are we compromising on this player?
Starting point is 00:38:46 Why is this worth doing? And with Mikhail Lemon, I think the reason that this is a different discussion is that the structure of the league has pushed us to a place where his limitations matter less than they would have in a previous version of how we understood receivers in their profiles. We did an entire show last fall. was me and I think Matt Harmon did an entire show about the changing physical profile and athleticism profile of elite receivers are in the NFL. And the guys that we kept coming back to that kind of were the centerpiece of that show were JSN, Puka, and Alman Ross St. Brown. At that time, they were just like in a completely different tier halfway through the season
Starting point is 00:39:28 in terms of production in the NFL. And I think because we're at a place where we have so much zone coverage in the league, And if your biggest weakness is inability to kind of deal with press on the outside, that matters less than it might have in previous areas of the NFL. And because so many teams are playing with these condensed formations, the line between slot and outside has blurred to a point where if you are a guy where it's like, ah, is he really an outside guy? Is he a slot guy?
Starting point is 00:39:56 That matters less than it has in previous areas of the NFL. And so with Lemon specifically, I think the arc of where the league is push us to a place where even if he doesn't feel like a top 15 receiver most years or 10 years ago, now should we reframe our thinking around that. If other people want to, that's fine. That's not the way I want to build a team. That ain't for me. I'm not taking a slot primary who's under six foot in the top 15.
Starting point is 00:40:23 And I also, it's again, I think I would make it, I think I would maybe make an exception if I thought his tape was special. I think his tape is good and like just kind of flatly good. That's kind of where I landed with him. like if you're if you're holding out for special tape then you're not going to love that many guys that you can pick that's that's where i like i like probably at least a dozen players in this class more than him probably closer to like 20 something i mean i can get behind i haven't even seen everybody i can get behind a dozen like a dozen's fine if if you don't think mckeye lemon's a top 12 pick i'm not going to argue that hard with you but like we should also acknowledge that he's not a reliable narrator when it comes to this specific subject I wait for what it for numbers receiver size just understand where
Starting point is 00:41:09 understand the messenger on the other side of I mean let me let me make a small case against like or to to wash myself away of this for this class specifically Casey Concepcion is very similar size I think he's a better prospect that's interesting I mean I get I mean Casey Concepcion I think he's fast Yeah no he's he's much more fast and much more sudden I don't know though man like Casey Concepcion
Starting point is 00:41:32 has drop issues and Mackay Limin catches everything you throw into his very small orbit. Like, it's not a big catch radius, but he's coming down with it. He does have big myths. There's a little bit of like the Parker Washington thing there. But like, again, like, do I want to draft the guy who's like Parker Washington-ish that high? I don't know. So that was going to be my next question for you. Let's just say in the very uninteresting and uninspired comp world that he is just Amman Ra Saint-Brown.
Starting point is 00:42:02 If I told you right now that Mikhail Lemon had Amon Rae St. Brown's first five years in the NFL, do you think he is worth a top 15 pick? Barely. Because again, I think I value a player. I think it's a wild stance. That is a crazy thing to say. I value a player like Amon Rae St. Brown probably a little bit less. Like if I, there are probably other outside receivers that people would probably rank
Starting point is 00:42:28 below Amman Ross St. Brown that I would probably take above because I just prefer that as a skill set. and I think it's more valuable. How many receivers over the course of Amman Ross St. Brown's career have been, and of course, like there are more explosive, better receivers than Amman Ross St. Brown. Probably less than, I'd say, you can count them on two hands. Yes.
Starting point is 00:42:47 Yeah. It's a short list. He's a very good player. If you read it to find guys who can win outside. And I value that in the draft. Like, you want to find the things that are hard to find. I think he can win outside. I think about Ross has shown an ability.
Starting point is 00:43:01 At this point in his career can. Like, that is a very recent development. That took five years for us to really get there. I don't know. I just want to put good football players on my team. I don't really care how they win. Here is the, if I was trying to play devil's advocate for the shitting on Mackay Lemon party that Derek is trying to throw, a lot of these guys that we're talking about in this world
Starting point is 00:43:21 where more condensed splits, you know, that it's that blurred line between being a slot receiver and being an outside receiver. A lot of those guys who succeed in those specific offenses are capable run blockers who are able to wield that as part of what they're providing to the offense. I think there's more questions about what he can do in that world than what somebody like Amon Ross St. Brown can do in that world. And I think that's a worthwhile thing to bring up. I mean, he's always going to be limited by his size, but I think he's got the right attitude.
Starting point is 00:43:48 Like, I think he's, he will block for you. I don't, like, he's not, like, he's probably not ever going to be great at it, but he's not like an OLA sort of wide receiver or a guy who's just going to jog up and not look like, I think Mackay Lemon will, he'll, he'll mix it. up for you, even if it's not why you're drafting him. And for the record, I get it. Like, sub 200, sub six foot, bad 40. It's a bad combination for a wide receiver, but I don't know. I like the tape and I just, I think you have to work within the parameters of what this draft class is giving you. I like Carnell Tate more than I like Mackay Lemon. After that, I mean,
Starting point is 00:44:25 Jordan Tyson's an amazing player. Jordan Tyson missed almost 40% of his college career. That scares me a hell of a lot more than Mackay Lemon's parameters, me personally. Derek, if McIall Lemon was drafted by the Rams with a 13th overall pick, would you be excited? See, that's cheating, though, because at any time, anytime someone like a Sean McVeigh or Kyle Shanahan draft someone, I'm like, maybe, but I still, I would probably look at it and be like, man, I wish they took X tackler, whatever it is at that position. Like, I just, it doesn't get me all that jazzed. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:45:01 part of the reason I said that is not just the oh if this guy likes him then maybe I should too it's also the in that offense it seems like that's the best world for him to be very successful and that's what I'm saying is like if he and his world can see it it's like okay well then maybe there is a world where this could work well and that's part of my point too is his world is our world now is the other argument I would make the McVeigh world is the awesome clearly that's fair that's fair there aren't and maybe it's maybe it's a quirk of this year's draft or maybe it is a statement about the way this stuff is changing, there aren't that many places where
Starting point is 00:45:34 McCai Lemon is going to land where it's like, good luck, buddy, it's all on you. Like, no, like there are most of the teams where it would make sense to draft him, he's going in to be a piece of the bigger thing. Oh, I can't wait for him to be the number one receiver and get 150 targets in Miami this year. I'm pumped about it.
Starting point is 00:45:50 That would. Oh, those condensed splits and the baby slow offense, they're going to fucking love Mackay Lemon. That would be kind of wild if Miami picked him, but I'd be interested to see what it looked like. The last guy in the top half of the first round that I wanted to discuss here, this is a slightly different conversation. And I think that we can talk about him here and in the positional outliers one.
Starting point is 00:46:10 But I do think when you look at Caleb Downs and you just think about some of the specifics with Caleb Downs, a lot of the guys drafted in the top half of the first round at safety have one of two things going for them that Caleb Downs just doesn't really have as part of his profile. They are either crazy athletes. Like they, I mean, straight line speed, just are. physical size outliers. He is neither of those things. Or they are production outliers. Similar to what we talked about with like a Devante Smith. If you look at the guys that in your minds, like guys that were drafted in the top half of the first round at safety that ended up becoming like hugely productive players like borderline Hall of Fame players. Earl Thomas
Starting point is 00:46:48 in his final year at Texas, who was the, I think Earl was the 13th or 14th pick in the 2010 draft. 10 draft, yeah. He had eight interceptions his final year at Texas. Earl Thomas did. Eric Barry, in his second to last season at Tennessee before being the fourth overall pick in the draft have seven interceptions. Minka had a season in college. He didn't think he was the 13th pick in the draft where he had six interceptions.
Starting point is 00:47:12 Caleb Downs has six interceptions in college, total. And so if you look at some of the things with Caleb Downs compared to other guys who have been successful as safety's picked in this range of the draft, there are some gaps in his profile compared to players like that. And so I do think he kind of
Starting point is 00:47:29 creeps into this discussion a little bit. Caleb Downs is absolutely part of this discussion. I mean, even building on that, I was curious, just from a size perspective, Earl Thomas is a name worth mentioning too, but he was 15, 20 pounds heavier than Caleb Downs coming out. The list of sub six foot 200 pounds safeties that have gone in the first round over the last 15 years, it's not a long one. And a lot of them didn't pan out into anything overly great.
Starting point is 00:47:56 Gibral Peppers comes to mind. and then the Patriots moved Devin McCordy to safety. Gibral-Peppers is such a perfect one because it does remind me a little bit of the discussion around Cam Dousers. Like he's just a football player. He's just a football player. He's worth taking that high because he's just a football player. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:48:12 Caleb Downs was like 18 years old at Alabama and immediately the best player in football. Like to me that's a little. Gibral Papers felt like a really cool idea. Caleb Downs to me is like that guy has like was born to play safety. That is very fair. And again, I know everything that's appealing about Caleb Downs and watching him this morning is the ability to process the game and what's happening in front of him and the route recognition, just how quickly he triggers on everything. It really does feel like he just sees the Matrix playing the position. And so it's probably an unfair comparison, but I did think it on some level that Japel Piper's thing.
Starting point is 00:48:48 It's like, oh, it brings me back to like that discourse in that moment. I'm glad you brought that up. And it's a point. I think Daniel Jeremiah made it at some point in the last week or two. but so much of what Caleb, so much of what makes Caleb Downs valuable. And I've talked to people about this on my own as well. Like it's stuff that you,
Starting point is 00:49:05 I mean, you can see it when you watch him. Like it's very obvious what a smart player he is, but the mental aspect that he brings to your defense and getting people into the right position and knowing what's going on, it's a much harder thing to quantify than what he looks like when he measures up at his pro day. And what I would say is,
Starting point is 00:49:26 just again, the pushback based on like his history and how we make these decisions is that specific skill very, very, very rarely pushes players to be drafted inside the top 10. And that very rarely. For the record, I'm, I am fascinated by this and I've been thinking about it a lot because I feel like people, people expect him to be a top 10 pick. And I wouldn't blame a team that made him a top 10 pick. But I'm at the point where I almost expect the league to do this again. like I don't I think I need to see the NFL draft him in the top 10 to believe that they're going to do it between the and for the record I think people hear like sub six foot and like his overall size and he didn't run a 40 in this draft process I think Ohio State's Pro Day was on Wednesday and he didn't run one I think it get like people are under the impression that he's a bad athlete I don't think he's a bad athlete at all and I don't think league evaluators really have a lot of questions about that but he's not like a freak athlete either. And so between the size and normal athleticism.
Starting point is 00:50:32 And normal production. And normal production. I, even if I disagree, I won't be surprised if he does slide. And by slide, I mean, like, I would guess he's a top 15 pick instead of a top 10 pick. So let's bring it back. Why are we compromising on this player and should we be compromising on this player? Is there a worthwhile answer to that question for you and Caleb Downs, Derek? I think for me, yes.
Starting point is 00:50:55 Like one, he, again, he, just the way that he sees it is as good as I've probably seen it. I'm glad you brought up Minka earlier. He's probably seized the game as well as I've seen the safety see the game since Mika. Like Kyle Hamilton was fantastic too, but part of drafting Kyle Hamilton was, oh, they just don't look like that. Like they're just not safeties for like that. Yeah, just terror. Like he was a little bit of a different conversation, even if his film was also fantastic.
Starting point is 00:51:18 Downs, I think his film was fantastic. And then I think, too, he also really fits in this two high world we're living in where like he's a really good hash safety. He can spin to the middle if he needs to. He's really good down in the box. He can cover from the slot. Like he does do everything in a way that you need from the modern game. And then the last thing, and maybe this is just me, like, I really, really value that the guy
Starting point is 00:51:39 who was like 18 year old freshman high program immediately like that is the best player on the field. And for him to do that at then two different programs, like I, usually the guys who are that good right out of the box, that guy ends up being a pretty good NFL player. And in the box. And in the box. Oh, right. I see what you did there.
Starting point is 00:52:00 It caught me off card. I just think, like the, like, we say so much about the direction the league is moving in. And maybe he's not perfect because he's a little bit undersized. But like Caleb Downs looks like a perfect player for what NFL defenses are trying to do. Maybe that's part of it, right? Yes. It's like it's adjacent to the McCyle Lemon discussion that we're having. And Derek kind of touched on it just.
Starting point is 00:52:26 there, but like you're, you're not drafting Caleb Downs to play one position. Like he can do a little bit of everything. Some NFL teams are going to play him a lot at nickel. And I don't mean like the big nickel, Nickham and Worry thing. He's a different type of player, but he can do stuff in the slot. He can do stuff in the box. He can play on the back end. He's going to be one of the smartest players on your defense that, again, has everything shured up, makes everybody better because he's got him in the right position to make plays. And he's also, he's one of those guys like he's, he is wired for. football. I don't know if he's wired for anything else. Like ball, ball is life for this guy.
Starting point is 00:53:01 That's what I've heard about him. And so between the mental makeup of what he's about and what he wants to do and then his calling card as a player, nobody's bust proof. But he looks like a guy who is meant to be like a turnkey player for a modern NFL defense to me, even if the size isn't ideal. And I will say, if we're talking about the inability to figure out who the safe players are, one thing that I do think a lot of teams come back to when they're like, I don't know if he's going to be great, but I know he's going to be somebody who could be a starter for us. He's part of our program. He's somebody who can rely on. The football character part of that, to me, is probably the most important part of that. Like, Paris Johnson is the best possible example of this to me, where I think
Starting point is 00:53:45 there were questions about like Paris Johnson's ceiling and what Paris Johnson would be. And I think the Cardinals at that point in their process in those first couple of drafts where they had no players. It was just like, we just need a guy who we know is going to be a starter for us five years from now. And that's what Paris Johnson was. And he was a top 10 pick. No, 12th. No, six. They traded back up. They traded back up and all this stuff. Again, it's a premium position. So it's a slightly different set of considerations. But like, again, that's part of the thinking. If you're the Bengals, right? And you just need like starters on defense. Why would you not take Caleb Downs, where it's just like, I know, the Shamar Stewart put out
Starting point is 00:54:24 process from last year. Where they're like, we're taking a swing. Like we've missed on all these addresses. We need to hit this guy. Caleb Downs is the exact opposite of like, listen, he might only top out as like a B level player. That's a, I don't think that's true of Caleb Downs, but like if that's what we're saying potentially. Even if he tops out as a B, he also bottoms out as a B minus. that's fine for where we're at, given how bad the defense is. You can come back and play this for me in four years. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If you draft Caleb Downs, assuming good health, and like for being an undersized player, he didn't miss a lot of games in college.
Starting point is 00:54:56 Assuming good health, he's not that small, by the way. No, no, I know. He's not that small. He's not like, this idea of like, he wouldn't be a bit. He's two, it was 206, the combine. Like, if you, if 200 is like, that's capable, like that. He's not, he's not a crazy small player. He's just not a big player either.
Starting point is 00:55:11 Assuming good health. The bad Caleb Downs is a guy that starts for you for five years and you let him walk in free agency. And like, if that's the bad. version of this i can live with that i mean it's not ideal but you're not going to look back on this in three years and be like oh that was the caleb downs draft which was the beginning of setting us back for three years like i just i don't believe that's going to happen the only thing that's going to creep up is when spencer final goes one pick later and he's a 10 time lullcrow it's the only thing that's going to throw a wrench into all this any other guys you guys you wanted to make sure we
Starting point is 00:55:43 hit it's discussion i know we kind of zeroed in on those four players and you guys had more were guys that kind of fit this. I got a few, Derek. Do you have any first? One that we did not touch on, which is kind of unique to this class, but there are two players that fit this. Akeem Mesidor, the other Miami Edge being he will be 25 by draft day, and the history of players who were 25 and older by draft day
Starting point is 00:56:07 is not very good. And for me, if we're talking about how many others did you find? How many? There's, I, I, I, it was honestly really hard to find lists on this. I even asked Dane today, and he, like, there isn't a quick way to access it. Like, I was surprised that when doing some of the historical research, I was actually surprised at how little historic draft data is, like, publicly available for search. I thought, like, pro football reference would maybe have, like, I could go on there and it would give me, like, no, sir.
Starting point is 00:56:35 At draft. And it doesn't have it. And so it was a little bit hard to find it, but it's just like, I think we all know that, like, most of those guys who get drafted at that age kind of struggle. And then so for me, if you're going to be that age, you either need to be like, the best athlete on the field that your tape has to be insane. I think Mesedor's tape is solid, but like for his size wasn't quite the run defender, I thought. And then I thought all of his best pass rushes were like him lined up as the three tech on like a third down,
Starting point is 00:57:02 on like a third and 11 and he wins and gets the guard. And like that is valuable in the third round. I don't know if that's like where I want to take that in the first round. I'm so ready for the COVID flyers to be like they're finally winding down and we don't have to worry about this. right there i think there's a few more guys but it shouldn't last much longer there i did find a few articles of like 28 and like 27 28 year old guys who were drafted most of those happened a lot like literally decades ago and most of them were also quarterbacks like there's just not a lot of president well eden and then uh danny wakkins was the other one right like wasn't danny walkins like super old
Starting point is 00:57:41 that's what that's one of the names that danny threw out to me this morning uh jaris pendleton is another one jerrys pendleton all the way of back in 2012 drafted at the age of 28. I mean, there's not a big sample size of guys like this. So who are the other guys you wanted to talk about? One guy that's really interesting to me, and I actually, I mean, Dane and I have talked about him before, but I was talking to him about it last night. I think it's so interesting that one of the top cornerbacks in this draft is a guy who
Starting point is 00:58:06 didn't play last year. And that would be a Dermad McCoy out of Tennessee. And obviously, like, guys deal with injuries all the time. And so Dremont McCoy tore his ACL in January of 25, right after Tennessee. Tennessee's season. He was phenomenal as a sophomore. He transferred from Oregon State. His 2024 tape is absolutely incredible. You completely understand why people are high on him. He didn't play at all in 2025. There was hope he would come back for Tennessee. I think he said at the combine, he was medically cleared, but he just didn't feel all the way comfortable. As of right now, Tennessee's Pro Day is, so it's March 26th as we're recording. Tennessee's Pro Day is March 31st. So nobody's seen this guy run. And he says he's all good to go. He's completely fine. But I think it's fascinating that a guy could be a top 15 pick with absolutely zero tape from the year before.
Starting point is 00:58:59 And we've seen this, the speaking of COVID, I mean, Jamar Chase, Micah Parsons, Penae Sewell, those guys all sat out. They were healthy. They just didn't play in the 2020 season for a guy to not have a season at all. And Dane threw me these names, which are, which is good on his part. uh json played three games the year before he came out chvonne ravel was the guy i was thinking about which he was a third round pick yeah he's the third round pick yeah he's the third round pick and so if he really goes in the top 15 top 20 with no junior tape that's incredible to me and it says a lot about how good his tape was in 2024 and it maybe says a lot about this draft class and it brings us back around that that was going to be my question or does it say more about this draft class the 20204 tape is really really cool but i would be scared shit
Starting point is 00:59:47 Again, going back to what I said about Spencer Fano, in August, you're like, this guy's the truth. He's going to, he's OT1. And he was good this year, but it's up and down and you're like, ah, I know, okay. I know you love Spencer Fano. The I like, but I mean, that's that's player growth in general. Very few guys are just on this constantly upward trajectory. So for Jermad McCoy to not have any tape from this past year and still go in the top 15,
Starting point is 01:00:14 not saying it's impossible or anything, but that's wild to me. Derek Stingley is another one worth mentioning, but he had three games in his final season at LSU, which not to say that you're hanging your hat on that, but I don't know, it makes me feel a little bit better to say, okay, he played a few games, got hurt, shut it down after that,
Starting point is 01:00:35 as opposed to we have not seen this guy on a football field since December of 2024, and he could be a top 15 pick next month. That's a new one for me. me. Derek Stingley goes back to Derek's point about when you were 18 were you were the best player on the field. That's the guy I'm going to continue to bet on. Yes, exactly. So like the short arms, some of the other stuff with him, the injury history, it was like, dude, we knew from day one that guy was it.
Starting point is 01:00:57 We don't have to worry about it. He's been okay. He's been a solid pro. Was not SEC freshman of the year, though. Bo Nix was. Who was it that year? Justifiably so. The only way you can, the only way you can make Derek's day worse.
Starting point is 01:01:17 than trying to pump up Mackay Lemon as an elite draft prospect is dropping that at the end. All right. That is all we've got for today. As always, thank you guys for tuning in. Make sure to hit the subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. And if you enjoyed this, please like, leave a rating, sound off in the comments, and we will see you next time. Thanks for tuning in.
Starting point is 01:01:39 Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time. Thank you.

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