The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Which teams can win the Super Bowl?; A dispatch from Browns camp with Zac Jackson

Episode Date: August 11, 2022

Everyone knows the Bills can win the Super Bowl. And the Rams. And the Buccaneers, too. But can the 49ers win the Super Bowl? Can the Broncos? What about the Saints? That's right, the Saints! Mike Sando joins Robert Mays to dig into which teams can win the Super Bowl on this episode of The Athletic Football Show. Then, Mays checks in from Browns camp with Zac Jackson. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Football Show. Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Today's Thursday, August 11th. I'm Robert Mays. Really fun show for you guys today. Zach Jackson, our Browns writer here at The Athletic, is going to be joining us a little bit later. I was at Brown's camp yesterday,

continuing my training camp tour. I'm in beautiful Rochester, New York, right now, so we'll be catching up with Joe Piscoglio, who's our Bill's writer, a little bit later in the week. Before we get to any of that, though, I'm very excited to welcome. the one, the only, Mike Sando.

Mike, how you doing? You back home? I'm doing well, and I am home. I can confirm I'm at home. It feels weird to be home. I just put 2,500 miles on a poor rental car, but it had a really fun, exasperating time doing so, as I'm sure you can relate.

I'm in the middle of that. I got a big drive ahead of me on Thursday night. You guys be listening to this on Thursday. The Rochester to New Jersey Drive is one of the long ones as part of this trip. I did Rochester to Boston, and let me tell you about that, Mays. Okay? So I came from, I believe, La Trobe, home of the Mighty Pittsburgh Steelers training camp at St. Vincent College to Rochester. It was one of my drives there.

So I, but I was getting in really late at night, and I stopped in Buffalo and got together with Lisa Wilson, one of our editors, lives in Buffalo. So we went out and had a hot dog at Ted's hot dog, which I recommend. I always hit Ted's when I'm in Buffalo. So I check in at like after midnight in Rochester at the airport Marriott there. And I'm only going to have a few hours of sleep because I got to get over there for the morning practice. So I go over there, morning practice. Everything goes great. And I finish up early and I decided, you know what, I'm going to make a run for Foxborough.

But in my mind, I thought, shoot, I haven't even checked into the hotel here in Rochester. Even though I had a few hours earlier, I forgot. I go, shoot. You know what? I'm going to go by there, you know, and just at least check in. I mean, shoot, we probably paid for the thing. So I'm on the phone. You want those barrier points, man.

Yeah. And I'm, you know, when I do my expense, I mean, wait a minute, we stayed in a hotel, you weren't even there. You know, I was in thinking of this. So I go into the hotel, but I'm on the phone, you know, a little distracted. I go and check in at a hotel that I, that I was already registered in, okay, without knowing it. They give me keys. They go along with it.

They give me keys to the room. I'm still on the phone. I go up to the room, room 703 there at the airport Marriott. And I open the door and I go, shoot, there's somebody staying in here. There's like the bed's messed up. There's crap everywhere. And then I go, I go, shit, that's my suitcase. I mean, I literally paused for five seconds to think this through.

And I go, you know what? I stayed here last night. And I forgot because I have been in so many different places. and then I was like, shoot, I could have just taken off driving. How long would I've gotten before I realized all my clothes? Everything. Toilet trees, two weeks of clothes. They'd still be in room 703 at the airport Marriott, Rochester.

So that's what happens. I don't know how people have like a real traveling job, like 300 days a year with cars and stuff. It reminds me when my kid, my young son was little, we did a vacation all on Marriott points, and we were staying at Fairfield. ends or whatever the whole way, whatever it was. My son thought we were going back to the same room every day because they all look the same. They all had the desk over here, the pool over there. So that's what happens. But I made it out of there and had a good time at Bill's Camp, but I actually checked into a hotel. I'd never done that in, I don't know. I've probably got closer to 2,000 hotel

nights than 1,500. I don't know. Do you want to hear a sad story? It's crazy. When I was in Pittsburgh, I did leave my suitcase in the hotel room. On this trip? No, not on this trip. A previous trip while going from training camp to training camp. I left my suitcase in Pittsburgh and drove to Indianapolis. It was too far. So they had to ship me my suitcase.

And I tried to expense it at the ringer and was denied. That relains me the time I tried to expense a suit once. And that did not go well either. But it did not go over well at... Even though I was pre-approved for it, they made me donate it to Goodwill and get a receipt. It's just crazy how all this stuff works. I mean, that was my own doing. I left my suitcase in Pittsburgh.

I drove away without my suitcase. I do that shit all the time, especially when I'm tired and I'm traveling around like that. I forget something inevitably. So I'm glad we're surviving. I'm glad I've made it this far through this trip. We only got like 10 more stops to go. But it's been really fun. I'm in Buffalo right now, and the Buffalo Bills,

have inspired the idea that we're going to get into today. This is an idea I did with Kevin Clark a couple of times at the ringer, and I think it's a fun one to run back here. We're going to talk about the teams that we think can win the Super Bowl today. I have a lot of blind spots as far as NFL editorial work goes. One of them is that I just forget to talk about the teams that are good because I assume we all know they're good. So I'd like to actually do that today.

I would like to actually talk about the teams we think are good and that can win the Super Bowl. We're going to get into why we think you, Each team can. For some of them, that's going to be self-evident. Others, it's going to be a little bit more of an argument. And we're going to get into why they won't. Quick rule that I'm establishing at the top of this. Injuries and bad luck, we don't have to say.

Those are the reasons for everyone. So obviously, if the bills get decimated by injuries, they probably won't win the Super Bowl. But that's true for every single team, so it's not worth mentioning. For one team, I guess we can't start mentioning it because the injuries are starting to pile up. But as a general rule, I think that's important to keep in mind. So I'm going to start us off here, and we're going to kind of alternate until we run out of teams. I'm going to start with the Buffalo Bills, who are the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl. I think that's a good argument for why they can.

I also think they're probably the best roster in the NFL, which is another good argument for why they can win the Super Bowl. Where are you going to start? Why do you think the bills can win the Super Bowl, Mike? Absolutely. Well, I love their combination of having a top quarterback. Josh Allen hasn't proved it as many years as Tom Brady or Aaron Rogers, so I assume, you know, he could have an off year. But I think they've got a really great young quarterback. And then I think they've got the good kind of defensive infrastructure there.

Some of that's obviously going to be reflected in your schedule. But I think they, between Frazier and McDermott, they got that pretty well squared away too. So I like when you have those two things going together, it really gives you a chance to be a very good team. If I was picking why they won't, two things come to mind for me outside of injury again. New play caller on offense. That is the big change, right? I mean, I think the people there are excited about Ken Dorsey. The reason that he was promoted was so they could have some continuity and keep rolling with the type of offense they were running.

But he's still an unknown. He's never been an offensive coordinator in the league. This was a team that did really well when it came to offensive structure, planning the way that it all looked. There's a reason Brian Daibald was a head coach. So that's something to keep in mind. And the other thing, positionally, you know, I feel like people look at the bills and just say, that's the best roster in the league. That's a complete team.

Set it, forget it, nothing to worry about. Their offensive line has some question marks to me. They signed Roger Saffold and Free Agency. Scott Quezenberry, who's playing right tackle for them right now. I don't know how that Spencer Brown, Queesonbury battle is ultimately going to shake out. But both Saffold and Queensberry were not great in straight dropback situations last year. So if they have to kind of get in third and seven and pass protect, this is not an elite offensive line by any stretch. Josh Allen mitigates some of that.

If you're talking about quarterbacks who shrug off pressure, not a huge percentage of his pressures turn into sacks. He does a very good job of making his offensive line look better. He's also very smart when it comes to protections, all that stuff, him and Daibled did a great job with that over the last couple years. But those are the two spots I would pick. Other than that, I think their defense top to bottom looks very good. They're deep. They have a bunch of players at a bunch of different positions. But those are the two aspects on offense that would give me pause.

Absolutely. I think offensively for them, not only losing dayball, but remember, that defensive coach that I talked about having that side of the ball squared away is probably going to want to run the ball more, shift the style of offense. He's got a more pliable offensive coordinator, a less established one there in Ken Dorsey. Absolutely. That may be fine. I mean, it may be fine.

I'm not saying that that's going to make him not be a nine-and-am offense, but it's just going to be different. And they were, you know, so much of our thoughts on Buffalo right now is because they just lit fire for those playoff games. And Josh Allen had nine touchdowns and no interceptions. But if you just go, it wasn't like it was just a walk in the park the whole year offensively for them. So I do think that what if they, I do think they could have, they could come back a little bit on that side of the ball and it wouldn't be a big shock. We're going to dig into that with Joe a little bit later this week when we have our Bill's team visit and can't visit. I do want to. to talk about a lot of that stuff, but I do think they found something near the end of the

season with their personnel, and I think that they've committed to that version of it. One of the reasons they went out and got Saffold and Cuisenberry is because they want to run the ball better. They want to run it well. They want to be able to dictate terms to defenses. So I think that they've found something as it relates to that heavier personnel and how it can be sprinkled into their offense. But we can get into that. I think we all agree that the bill's going to win the Super Bowl. Who's next for you? I'm going to go with Kansas City next. I know looking at my little odds here, I think the bucks may have better odds and some of that just could be because of the NFC.

But I'm going to go with Kansas City with the elite head coach and Andy Reid, the amazing quarterback and Patrick Mahomes, you know, veteran defensive collar and tough division, tough schedule. They put the toughest schedule of opposing quarterbacks this year if you plug in my quarterback tiered results, but I do like him a lot. Even with all the questions, they have an elite offensive line, they have an elite quarterback and an elite play caller. They still have Travis Kelsey.

the weapons, while different, I think there's still plenty to work with there. There's plenty of juice on that offense. Defense is still kind of a question, but a lot of high value young assets. I mean, that's what they turn the Tyreek Hill picks into. And I think that they have a good chance, even if it's going to take a little bit time

for that to come together on that side of the ball. I think it's a no-brainer. I think they're absolutely a contender. And even if this team feels and looks a little bit different than the Chiefs teams who've gotten used to over the last few years, you can pencil them. They can absolutely in the Super Bowl. Yeah, and it could be another.

thing where it takes a while, where the first month where people are doing stories about, hey, can they get out of this? But I think they will figure it out. Yep, I totally agree. I think if you're looking at where they might fall a little bit short, aspects of their roster, there's a lot of turnover in the secondary. They lost Traverius War. They lost Tyron Matthew. Obviously, went to get pieces to replace those guys, draft the Trump McDuffie in the first round, signed Justin Reed, but we haven't seen it. We don't know what that looks like. And then the pass rush. It was pretty anemic at times. last year outside of Chris Jones.

Everything we've heard out of Chief's camp is that Frank Clark looks better, looks slimmer, is having a bigger effect on the game than he did at times over the last couple seasons. So that's a good thing. They drafted George Carl Offtis in the first round to give them a little bit more help on the edge. But question marks, we have not seen it. So until we see it, it's hard to know what it's ultimately going to look like on

that side for them. All right, I'm going with the Bucks as my third team. Even with some of the injuries they've already sustained. I mean, that's the team I was referring to at the big. beginning. Now they're down three centers. We heard today that Aaron Stinney, who was the replacement for Ryan Jensen, was carted off the field. So they could be down to their third center. It seems like a veteran replacement, whether it's J.C. Trudder or someone else may be coming to the rescue here or may have to. But even with that concern about some of the guys they've lost on the interior of the

offensive line, this is still a very good roster top the bottom. There's a reason they're the favorite in the NFC. This one seems like a no-brainer to me. It does to me, too. For a team with a new head coach, way. I mean, that's not really getting talked about at all. Is anyone even talking about that? Like, hey, I thought Bruce Ariens was this, you know, the quarterback whisperer. He, you know, all these things, he's been such a high profile guy and he's removed and no one even brings it up. Is that just because, hey, Tom Brady is there and we have a, you know, Bulls has done it before. It's not like Bowles is going to be terrible. I think the important part of that is nothing changes on each side of the ball for who's overseeing it, right? If there was a new head

coach and maybe it was a new play caller, a new head coach, then their defensive coordinator had moved on. That would be another situation, but it's the same setup. I mean, Bruce was really just the CEO type head coach by the end of it. Byron was doing almost all of the offensive work himself during the week. It was really overseeing that side of things. That's going to continue to happen. The only thing that really changes is what's going to happen on the defensive side, but

obviously, Bulls is going to have a huge imprint on that. So I'm not really concerned about that. And I think that says more about the assistance they had in place than it says about what Bruce Ariens is at this point. Absolutely. I think they're probably a less volatile team, right? I mean, he was entertaining and you wondered if, you know, anything could be said at any time. Maybe they're just a little bit more, maybe they're a little bit more of a Brady-type team. Are you saying that Todd Bowles is not as exciting or as bombastic as Bruce Ariens is?

I'm definitely saying that. I think Bruce Ariens is a little bit of a loose cannon. And I think Todd Bulls, well, no offense, Todd Bulls, I find your company very entertaining, but Bruce Ariens is liable. I think Bruce Ariens just seemed to be getting even more uncle-like as he went along, like cared even less, you know, about what the follow-up might be of what he might say, about Antonio Brown or whoever it was, should he'd won a Super Bowl. So, yeah, I think they're a little bit less volatile now. I just have forgotten that there are guys on the Bucks. I'm kind of disappointed that I didn't go to their training camp, even though I'm sure you've been to Tampa in July and August.

It is fucking miserable. It's awful. You walk, so you park at one Bucks Drive, and they practice at their facility. It's not a far walk, but by the time I've gotten out of my car and to the practice field, I'm already soaking wet, just drenched with sweat. It's impossible not to be.

The humidity is 100%. 25%. They should consider a trip to the West Coast like the Cowboys do. Really, they should take it to do account. Yes, training camp somewhere. I mean, that big huge bucks flag is waving, but it's a hot wind, like a furnace blast. I mean, really, if you've never been a steel worker standing over the molten steel, you can just go there and feel probably similarly. And the reason that I'm disappointed that I'm not there is I would have loved to have just seen Hakeem Hicks and be like, oh shit, I forgot Hick's was on the bucks because I continue to forget things like that about this team. That's how good of a job they've done with roster churn.

All right. Who's your next one here? Let's go with the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. We couldn't go much longer without mentioning them. I don't think a ton changes for them. They did lose Kevin O'Connell to the Vikings. But guess what? Sean McVeigh is fairly closely associated with the offense there.

Stafford, some elbow issues. We'll see what that means. He's one tough dude. I think he's going to be there when it matters. And I like their team. Yeah, this one, not a lot to dig into here. We have a lot of the same pieces back. They went out and got Alan Robinson to replace Old Al Beckham,

who they won the Super Bowl without for the most part. Last year, Cam Hakers comes back after missing most of last season. I think some questions along the offensive line. That would be the one spot where we've seen a decent amount of turnover. Obviously, Andrew Whitworth retires, but there's a reason they gave Joe Nobom that big contract. Sean McVey have been talking about Coleman Shelton, who's potentially their right guard, even though they drafted Logan Bruston the third round

and how he's looked during camp. They've done a very good job of churning some of those interior pieces and surviving, even with multiple offensive line coaches that have been there over the last couple years. So I feel totally fine about the offense. I think Stafford's elbow is with the biggest question mark there. And on defense, maybe corner. David Long is slated to be one of their outside corners this year.

They lost Darius Williams in free agency, but they got Troy Hill back. It looks like Jalen Ramsey is going to be healthy. I would have to assume, based on their personnel and the way that they used guys last year, we're going to see a lot of three safety looks out of this team this season. So they have some flexibility on the back end. Me and Nate mentioned Ernest Jones earlier this week as a guy that we think could break out in a big way. This team is really good, and they deserve the benefit that I doubt at this point, even if they lose a guy like von Miller,

and we have some questions about the edge rushers. I just have to assume that Sean McVeigh, Rahim Morris, and the group of players they have there are going to figure it out and be relevant in this thing all the way to the end. Yeah, and one little X factor for them. I'm curious what Bobby Wagner has at this point. He played every snap in Seattle, you know, but I'm not sure that's the best for him at this stage.

And we saw K.J. Wright leave there from Seattle. And, oh, man, KJ. Wright, what a great career. But he basically played one year, kind of. and then that was it. Does Wagner have more less than that? He might. If he really has a lot left, that could be a nice veteran addition for them. But he is up there in years. So I think there's some question. Here's what I would say about that. Beyond his on-field kind of physical contributions to what they're going to be, they needed someone in the middle of that defense. Because Jordan Fuller was their green dot for most of last season. Obviously, he's still there. But their main communicator

by the end of the season was Eric Weddell. Eric Weddell was the guy who was kind of overseeing things, even though he'd only been there for a couple weeks. And after talking to people there when I was there at the beginning of my camp tour, that's what they saw in Wagner, somebody who could really just take command of that unit overall. So even if he's lost the step, I still think he has a ton of value in terms of what it means for the defense

all kind of bringing itself together. All right. My next one here, let's go with the Green Bay Packers. Another team that, like we mentioned with the Chiefs, a lot of turnover, but they have the two-time defending MVP, and I think they're absolutely a Super Bowl contender. The odds would tell you that. Common Sense would tell you that. I think the Packers are a Super Bowl contender and a team that can win the Super Bowl because I have faith in their ability to be a little bit different and still be really good. You know, is this a team that's going to have the best defense in the league, a top three defense in the league that has to win a little bit uglier? Even if Rogers isn't playing at that MVP, VP clipped because we have some concerns about the past catchers, I still think that whatever the version of this team ends up being, it's going to be a team that can stick around. I think I want to know how much better they're going to be on defense. I think that's a huge component of them actually getting to the Super Bowl. I don't have any worries about.

It's a necessary part of this actually getting pulled off. If you're going to try to build the case for them, you have to have that brick in the wall. Right. And so when I look at some of these header teams, like when we're talking about Buffalo, not only the good quarterback, but I think there's some elite defensive coaching there, right, that can help get them over the top. Yeah. And I think you could say the Rams have had some of that at various times. And the Packers just have been one of these teams that have been really up and down and volatile in the portions of the game that the quarterback can't control. Defense, special teams, something always rairs up and bites them. And I do have some optimism that this offseason with some of the moves they've made

defensively, just kind of where they're at, that they can be better in that area, but they have to show it. And if they don't, they're going to be wondering why Aaron Rogers didn't get them to the Super Bowl again. And it's not going to be necessarily Aaron Rogers' fault. I expect their defense to be good based on the improvements they made last year and the personnel that they've added, getting Jyri Alexander back, those first round picks, even if they don't, they're on stars right away. They have a lot of talent on that side of the ball. But we have not seen them be a top five defense. Even when they were better last year than they've been in years past, it's still an average group when you look at it in the aggregate. So it's a question mark.

Even if you're optimistic about it, it's a question mark. And last year they were 32nd and special teams EPA. You know, that type of stuff, those things, ask Philip Rivers, your buddy, you know. And ask Rogers, does that come up and bite you in a playoff game at some point along the line? It does. That's why these guys stumble. The other side of this, if we're talking about concerns, the offensive line we're going to have to start worrying about at some point. Until David Boktiari gets back out there, I mean, we're talking a year and a half at this point that he's missed.

Until he gets back out there, it's going to be something I'm worried about Elton Jenkins the same way. If they're going to have this formula where we can run it, running backs are our best skill position players, we can build it through them, you still need an offensive line to run the ball. I mean, that's a necessary component of that, version of this. So I want to see that offensive line get back healthy because I think if they do and they have that above average to borderline elite line, then you can run the ball. Then you can win these games kind of 24 to 17 and have a defense that's near the top of the league. And that version of you can win a Super Bowl. But I think that there are some things that are a little bit fragile as part of that overall recipe. And I actually think their chances for winning the Super Bowl are going to diminish as we go in part because of the contract that Rogers did. I mean, they're going to be.

being increasingly in a bind the next couple of years. So this is a big one for them. All right. Who's your next one? This is where I don't, this is, we get through these teams. You think there's a tear break there? Yeah, there is. Even though my tea.

Yeah, there is. There is because. I think there's one more team in that tier to me. Well, the odds makers say it's the chargers. That's, that, that's what I would go with. But that's who I, okay, I'm, that's who I have next. And I'm going to do it. But I don't feel, I guess I feel less bad about them than the other teams that are after them.

But I do feel like we can put them in that tier. But you talk about the defense, the special teams, all of that. I think that it remains to be seen if defensively they can fix it. If they can be really good on that, they have an unproven head coach. They haven't been good enough to win over the last two years with a really great, quarterback. And that is a little bit concerning for me. I don't just give them the automatic benefit of the doubt that it's just going to turn. How about you? I have a lot of faith in their ability to fix it on that side. And we talk about it with other positions. If you can go from

bottom of the barrel guys to pure competence what it does for you. And that's how I see the middle of their defense this year. Going out and getting a Sebastian Joseph Day and Austin Johnson, and even Kyle Van Nuoy, they're excited about Kyle Van Nuoy. I don't know if that's justified or not, but what he brings to the middle of their defense, I think they're looking forward to that. Kenneth Murray is barely even in this team's plans anymore. And multiple first-round picks you can say that about.

Jerry Tillery is now much further down the depth chart than he was. The fact that Kalil Mack is now there to add to their pass rush, but also their run defense. I was really interested when Brandon Staley told me about Cleo Mac's impact on their defense and what he allowed them to do, and the run defense is the first thing that he mentioned, what it allowed him to do structurally because of how good Mac is in that area. And they just didn't have those queens on the chess board last year to change things, to change how

they could build the defense outside of really Derwin, James, and Bosa. And now they have a lot of those different guys that give them flexibility, J.C. Jackson, Cleo Mac, you know, now they have multiple safeties. can they play Darwin in the slot? Do they have to even play Darwin in the slot? Because Bryce Callahan is there. I just think they have so many more bodies. Another great example.

Michael Davis, started last year for them. Had to be a starter for them last year. Now is not. He's their fourth corner. They have so many of those guys that had to be a part of their plans defensively last year and now are just a luxury. They're a bonus. And if they have to play, they'll play,

but they're not relying on them to be good. And when you combine that with the offense, which already was a top five unit last year, and certainly didn't get any worse this offseason, I think they have the makings of a tried, like real contender. I do too. Here's my concern. Killal Mack played seven games last year,

has a foot that concerns people in the league. You don't have to tell me. Does he play, how's he playing in December for the playoffs? It's a great point. It's a great point. And let's go through him. Derwin James,

how's he playing in December? We feel pretty confident in his ability to just play every week in and out year after year? He was healthy last year. Yep. J.C. Jackson, is he going to be better outside of New England or better with New England? Or the same, it doesn't matter. I don't know if he'll ever be a top three corner in the league outside of New England. I don't know if you need him to be.

I don't think he's going to make good on that contract, but that's the flexibility that what you're paying Herbert gives you. Brandon Staley, top eight head coach, bottom eight head coach, do we know? I don't think we know yet. So those are the, I feel like I can hang my hat on some other things, and I know the hat's not going to fall on the floor for the teams that we talked about already, right? There's just some things there that make me feel more solid of them, or the chargers, especially being in the division they're in, like it wouldn't shock me at all if they went nine and eight and were on the outside looking in an AFC playoff. That wouldn't shock me. It would be disappointing, but it would not shock me as much as it would if those other teams. teams we talked about, we're on the outside looking in. That's why I feel like if we can put them

in this tier, we can put them in that type tier, but they still have to prove more to me. Does that make sense? Absolutely makes sense because they haven't had as much success on a team level as the other teams we've already talked about. So I just think that they're going to get there. And when you have a quarterback that's as good as their quarterback is, the margin for error that it gives you is extreme. And I think their quarterback is one of the best three, four in the week. I think by the time this season is over, we'll talk about him the same way we talk about everybody else. And I think what that gives you is a lot. What's interesting when we do this, Robert, so I have one in front of me, like I've got all the teams and I put their Vegas odds or whatever.

And then I've got columns like head coach quarterback OCDC and then a few stat rankings from last year. But on the head coach quarterback OCDC, I kind of put a little blue shading if I think they think they're kind of elite, you know. And so as you go across the Rams McVeigh elite, Stafford Elite, I don't know if Rehomor's elite, but I've got a little bit of a shade in there. I definitely think he is. He could be, right? I've got him blue on my thing on here, okay? Reed, Mahomes, you know, I've got multiples of those.

And for the Chargers in those critical ones, I have it for Herbert for sure. I really think he has that I want to see it from the others. That's all. Yeah, I think if Staley is their defense. play caller. I think that is elite. I think that we've seen that from him. The other aspects of being a head coach, I think we have to see a little bit more of it. And I think the quarterback is more elite than the offensive play caller is. But I do think that they have enough on both sides of the ball for us to be excited about their chances to win one. All right, I think that's the tier break

for me. So let's get to the next tier here. Who's first in your next tier? It's your turn. I just gave the charges. All right. Okay. All right. So this is, I don't even know who to go with next tier. The Niners have the next best odds. The fact that the Chargers and the Niners have the same Super Bowl odds is wild to me. We have no idea how good the Niners quarterback is. I have a red on him. Not that I'm predicting Doom, but I mean, I really need to see him play. I mean, people are all over the map on him, but he threw 71 passes last season.

We can't. Let's do them as our seventh team because I have them in kind of a quasi next tier with Denver a little bit. but like Shanahan elite play caller, right? D'Amico Ryan's pretty exciting on the defensive side of the ball, less experienced. I think their defense is going to be really good. Yeah, and it usually is. So, but putting that quarterback in there is such a wild card, and that's nothing against Trey Lance, but I mean, come on, there's going to be some growing pains.

This exercise is about who can win the Super Bowl. There is a chance that Trey Lance is. awesome. And even if he's not awesome, the elements he provides for their offense and the heights they can reach on offense because he's there, that version of it is just as good or better than it's been with Jimmy G over the last few years. They have a top five defense. That is a Super Bowl contender. But there is no guarantee. This is more about my concern with the odds than it is about whether they did belong on this list. They certainly belong on this list. Them at 15 to 1, when we have no idea how good train lances of football is just a little bit surprising to me. So they can absolutely

win the Super Bowl, but where they belong in this pecking order, I think is off the debate. But, you know, we agree that they lost a good quarterback in Jimmy Garoppel, but not a differentiating. We give Shanahan a lot of that credit for that. And so in Shanahan, we trust one of the reasons, I think I was asked last year, which of these rookie quarterbacks did you think had a chance to be the best, you know, coming out. And I actually went with Lance, not because of any evaluation of Lance, but because I think how Shannon is guaranteed to use them properly, right? He's going to have packages that get the absolute best they can get out of them. So I do like that part of it. I'm kind of excited to see them, but it's a nervous excitement because he could just really struggle,

too. I also think that they're going to be fine along the offensive line. I'm kind of optimistic about the players they had half there. Aaron Banks coming into year two when I was at Niners camp, Trent Williams is talking about how much he had changed his body and how he was moving and how he looked. It's the guy who was drafted in the second round last year. He could easily go from a non-factor to an above-average piece for them at left guard. At center, do you know the starting center and the right guard are right now at this exact moment for the San Francisco 49ers on R-O-ads? Is it Jake Brendel? Drake Brendel is their starting center.

If you haven't heard of Jake Brendle, don't worry. I don't think I had heard of Drake Brendle before two weeks ago and I do this for a living. Their right guard, as it's currently pencil on is Spencer Burford, who was drafted in the fourth. round. I was impressed by him during camp. I do think that the size and athleticism they have at those spots right now may be better than it's been in years past. But we're talking about a fourth round rookie here. This is far from a guarantee to work. So I give Shanahan the benefit of the doubt, but you've got a lot of uncertainty with the pieces along the interior of the offensive line. You have an entirely new offensive coaching staff. The people that were tasked with

helping Kyle Shanahan figure out his offense over the last five, even 10 years with Mike McDaniel, John Embry, their tight ends coach. They've lost all of those guys over the last couple seasons. There's a lot more uncertainty and moving parts with that San Francisco team that I think people from the outside are thinking about. It could absolutely work out, and their ceiling with Trey Lance is considerably higher. That's why you trade for him. They belong on this list, but I still think there are a lot of questions there that we're

not giving enough thought to. Yes. And you know what I'm going to do just because it's the 49ers. So they went six and ten, four and twelve, thirteen and three, six and ten and ten and seven. So is this a, is this the, the back, down year? And then they gear it up the next year and win twelve or whatever. We'll see. Those years are mostly driven by injury. I guess that's my argument. Correct. Is that when they've been bad, they've been hurt. Yeah. And some of that, though, was Garapolo being hurt. And guess what? Garapolo is not going to be there. And we don't know what is replaced. is. So that could be it. I think Tray Lance might be indestructible based on seeing up close and in person. No, no, I know. I agree. But we don't know how good he's going to play. You think that's important? You think the play of the quarterback is important when we're talking

about this stuff? All right. Speaking of that, I have the Denver Broncos as my next team. Yeah, and I do too. I have them kind of bunched with the 49ers in this group. And you want to lead them off? You want to leave this one off for me? What do you think about the Broncos? You and I have not talked about this. I'm curious what you think that they're, not even their ceiling, but like their outlook for this season. High volatility. I think they're a very volatile team. I think they've totally leaned into the expectations. I think people who aren't in Denver don't understand the expectations of Denver that what has been done there, either with Elway or Peyton Manning. And they have totally

embraced the Russell Wilson greatness angle. And here we go. In an extremely difficult division, Vic Fangio walked out the door on defense. I think that's significant. I don't care who you have replacing them. It's not like they brought in a 20-year veteran caller on defense. I think that's concerning. I think there's question about what Russell Wilson is after a year and a half. Is he declining a little bit? That's a bet that Seattle's making. Nathaniel Hackett is a first-time head coach who's now going to be managing all of those expectations, trying to get the best out of Russell Wilson? Is that going to happen right away? Do they need a year together? I just feel like, like it's almost impossible for them to meet the expectations that they've embraced and that they're surrounding in a division where somebody's finishing fourth in that division who thinks they're going to be one or two. And if I had to pick one of those teams that it might be, it could be Denver. What do you think? Volatility is a good way to put it.

I don't even know if they're going to be that volatile. I just don't think they're going to be that good this season. Yeah. They absolutely could win the Super Bowl, right? If we see the Russell Wilson that we saw over the first half of the 2020, season and Randy Gregory is healthy and Bradley Chubb is healthy. They have really good corners. Patrick Sartan turns into a first team all pro sort of player. They don't have a ton of holes on the defensive side of the ball. And their linebackers are probably the biggest question. We've seen

versions of this defense succeed without great linebacker play. I could absolutely see them being a top 10 unit on both sides and being competitive right away. That version of it exists. I just don't think it's going to be that clear and straight of a shot to that outcome. I think that they're going to struggle a little bit at times offensively to figure out what they want to be, what the right blend is between what Russ wants to do and what they want the structure of the offense to look like, just little things like that. I think it's really hard to be really good when you have this many new elements to your franchise and what you are on both sides of the ball.

And Russell Wilson is a bit of a unique player. I mean, I think not any offense, you know, just works. perfectly for him. And I think that, you know, one of the criticisms of the coaches in Seattle was, you know, he not doing enough for thrust, but I think they also did some of the things that he could do really well. And there are questions about what it is beyond that. If he can be better, you know, I think it's very likely we've seen the best of him because it was great. I mean, he's unbelievably good. That's hard to replicate now when he might be a tick decline from what he was before. especially when you're a quarterback who success and skill set was at least somewhat rooted in your ability to move around. If he's a diminished athlete, he's not going to be the same player, even if we're bullish on how he throws the football. Yep, with you all the way. So, yep, I think we're definitely getting to that point in there where, yeah. So that was your call.

I'm going to go Cincinnati next. They were in the Super Bowl. Do you think that's fair? Yes, they were a ninth on my list. And I do think there might be, eh, I was going to say there's another tier break here for me, but I don't know. if I believe that. I think Baltimore might be in the same tier. Oh, I put, I put, I actually put five teams in this tier. Okay. All right. I'm interested to hear who they are. But let's stick with the Bengals. Let's stick with the Bengals. Now, Joe Burroughs injury situation with this ependectomy,

is he going to be fine? I don't know. We don't get a lot of appendectomy rehabs here. I'm sure it's got to be painful. That's a little bit concerning to me. Just, you know, his durability anyway. I know he's going to recover from it and be fine, but he's not practicing. So you start there. And I think they did a good job checking boxes in the offseason to address the offensive line, but I don't think it's a given that they're just going to all of a sudden be good because of those changes. They made changes. We'll see. I really like Lou Anarumo as a defensive caller. I think he did a great job last season. I was a little concerned going in just because I didn't know. I thought he did a really nice job. So, you know, they're there. It probably feels a little low if you're a Bengals fan. Wait a

that we were just in the Super Bowl. But I did a poll last season at about this time of top decision makers in the league, and they all had Cincinnati in the bottom five of the AFC. So maybe they have to prove it again for us, right? I do think there is a little bit of luck baked into what they were last year. I mean, you have taken nine sacks in a playoff game and still winning. So many of the big plays they had last year were broken plays. When you have talented players like they do,

and Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase, I think you bet on them outrunning the regression in some of those areas. And I would be willing to make that bet. I think that Joe Burrow is going to be a top five-ish quarterback. I think that they arguably have the best skill position group in the league, the way that they've added to the offensive line. A group is markedly improved from what it was a year ago. Where they've added on defense makes sense to me. I think the roster is really good. I think the most important players are really good. I think they can win the Super Bowl, but I think this spot in the hierarchy and if we were tearing this out still feels right to me though. It does to me too.

Yep. And it just seems odd that we're putting them below the 49ers when the 49ers have Tray Lance and the Bengals have Joe Lurah. I have a hard time with that. But we're in a gray, muddy section here where things could go either way. If you wanted to put the Bengals as the seventh team at the top of this tier, I would have no issue with that whatsoever. That's why I'm tearing it out this way.

So if you want to put them seven, behind that first tier of teams, I think that's fine. I just think that you look at the charges. The Chargers have more star power on defense than the Bengals do. The Bengals did a really good job last year with piecing that group together and having veteran players give them really good contributions, but I still think the ceiling for the Chargers defense is higher than the ceiling for the Bengals defenses. All right.

Next one here, I'm going with the Ravens. They're in the same tier of teams for you. Absolutely. The Ravens are. Yeah, I think I agree with that. I think I agree with that. I think they're probably in that tier for. me as well. I've got blue shading by Harbaugh, great coach, good coach. I've got a little bit

lighter blue shading on Lamar Jackson. I mean, I think their offense, you know, was what it was last season and he missed games for the first time. I think he's a top 10 quarterback in the league. I think he win a championship with him. But I just think there's a little bit of, I almost feel like Baltimore as an organization, I wonder if there's going to be a little bit of declassive. and regression here. Now, they have done an amazing job for a long time of not letting that happen. And they have stayed good on defense, special teams, all of those things that help you be a stable franchise. But it feels like that was a little bit harder to do last year. People point to injuries, but some of the injuries were to guys that you might have expected to get

injured. How do you feel? Do you feel like they're in a little bit of a more regressing than moving forward? I think they're almost guaranteed to have better luck this year. year than they did last year. And they were the most injured team in the league last season. You get some of those guys back and things look a lot differently very quick. You have Ronnie Stanley back at left tackle. You sign Morgan Moses. The draft high wind of bomb in the first round.

Now you have an offensive line that was full of plugging guys last year. And it actually might be a strength. It goes from a defined weakness to a potentially defined strength. The receiving core is the biggest question on offense. I think the structure of the offense under Greg Roman and the receiving core are the two biggest questions. But I have faith in their ability to figure that out and at least be pretty good on that side of the ball with Lamar. The defense is the bigger question to me just because we haven't seen it. They have a new defensive play caller. They're going to have a new defensive

structure. I think the style of defense they're going to play is going to be significantly different, especially on early downs to the one that we've seen over the last couple years. You felt the shift coming a little bit last season, but I think we're going to see it in full force coming into this year and you have a lot of moving pieces. You know, they draft Kyle Hamilton in the first round. They signed Marcus Williams. I think they have a chance to be really, really good on that side of the ball, but we've never seen this version of it in practice. So I think there's a little bit of uncertainty with that, but I think they absolutely deserve to be on this list and probably in this tier of teams. Yep. And just get a little bit of the benefit of the doubt for sure. So that's why

I've got them in there. And like it wouldn't be surprising at all if they won the division made a push. No, not at all. I mean, I think they absolutely could win the division. Whether they belong in the same conversation as the chiefs and the bills, I think that's the bigger question. And I kind of think they're closer to that tier than they are to the teams below them in the week. Am I going to derail the podcast if we put, what do we do with Cleveland? So I said, I did not have them in here because I just think that Watson's going to get suspended for most of the season, if not all of it. And if he gets suspended for most of the season, if not all of it, then they're not in here. If he gets suspended

for six games, then I think the Browns could still win the Super Bowl. Me too. Yep, I think they could be really good. But if it's 12 or 18, then no. Yep, I think they'd be really good if he's there and playing. And so we put them off the side. I did put them in this tier, but we can just put like a little bit of an X next to them. That'll affect the number of teams that I have in there. I didn't know what to do with kind of Tennessee, Indie, Dallas. That's kind of the land that I'm into Raiders a little bit. So I had Indy further down for me. I had them on my list, but I have them further down. If you have them here, let's do it. I think the Colts have often been a little overrated. Tennessee at the end of the day wins that division a lot. I have always felt like Tennessee

is just so close to slipping and Mike Frable gets those guys going and they find a way to be the number one seed unbelievably last year. I mean, just unbelievably. But I do think, that Matt Ryan can be really good for that team and what they're looking for and that at least gives them a chance. What's say you? They're on this list for me. I think that's, that says enough.

And I think that Matt, going to Matt Ryan from Carson Wentz is a bigger improvement than I think people understand in more ways than one. And I think it has a chance to really unlock that offense. And they were going to see a different version of Michael Pittman than we did in years past. their offensive line. There are some questions. You know, Matt Pryor is slated to be their left tackle right now.

It's not as good a group as it has been over the last couple years. They were also banged up last season. I think if they're a little bit healthier up front, it can still be a really good unit. We know what Jonathan Taylor is. If you told me by the end of the season, the Colts are the seventh best offense in the league by DVOA, I would believe that. I would have no issue with that whatsoever. Yep. I think Matt Ryan needs to be protected.

I think he has a chance to be protected there despite those, you know, despite those concerns. that they do have. Most teams probably have a concern here or there on the line. And if we were to pick an offensive line for Matt Ryan to succeed with, it would probably be India. I like the fact that he and Riker paired together. I think that Ryan is so much more just mature as a player than Carson Wentz was. I think Wentz probably gets a little bit of a bad rap when they really punished him on the way out the door and the owner went after him and all of that. I don't think he was that bad, but I'm with you 100% that I think Ryan is just a professional adult quarterback, and I think that makes a difference for a team that has been looking for that. I mean, they lost

Andrew Luck, and it's been one guy after another, but just I see them a little bit like when they got Philip Rivers, you know, he's a declining player who's still a really good pro quarterback in the top half of the league, probably of quarterbacks, and that should let them be a team that has a little bit greater stability and has a winning record, and maybe things fall a little better for them, and they get in the playoffs. There's absolutely a world If Paris Campbell can stay healthy Which famous last words

But if Paris Campbell can stay healthy And Alec Pierce gives them something As a vertical player early Even if his role is a little bit limited If I'm the cults like Alex just run fast in a straight line Outside the numbers We'll throw you three jump balls a game

Even if that's all he does Combined with a healthy Paris Campbell And Michael Pittman That group makes sense to me And I actually think they have a chance to be kind of dynamic, especially when you combine it with the backs that they have. That Ryan and Frank Reich is, that's a great pairing. I think Frank Reich is an elite offensive coach, like truly elite.

What he got out of Carson once last year, I think is more impressive than people are giving him credit for. I would agree with that. And they've got a great top three back. I think there's not that many running backs that really make a huge difference, right, in terms of how the other team plays you. They have a guy who does. And I think you give Matt Ryan a top running back a good enough offensive line and an elite play collar like you're talking about.

We've seen that before. And he's not as good as he was when he won the MVP. But I'm not saying he's going to be the MVP. I'm saying he could be really good, though, and really have a revival year because Atlanta just wasn't supporting him enough in any phase. My concern is that I think the ceiling for the defense is low. I think the floor is fairly high, but it's hard for me to imagine them being the fifth best defense in the league with Gus Bradley. I think that's a solution you go to when you just say, we need to be functional on that side. It's the reason he got hired by the Raiders last year.

It's because that's exactly what they need it. Well, what they need from Gus Bradley is a little bit of a Dan Quinn evolution, right? Dan Quinn changed some of the things. Is he capable of that? And I think that has to be on their mind of what they want from him. So that will be very interesting to see because everyone's going to go into the season on indie talking about Matt Ryan and offensive all of that. I think that hiring of Gus Bradley and who Gus Bradley, not who he is, but who he might or might not be able to be, is a little bit of a wild card for them. Do you have any insight on that?

Yeah, I think that they would like him to, you know, grow in that way or be a little bit more diverse than what they do. and maybe he was a little bit more diverse even last season than his reputation is. It wasn't enough. There wasn't enough success for people to really sing his praises. But he probably did a better job with what he had there on the Raiders than you might think at first glance. Dan Quinn did a very intentional job of saying, this is what was wrong with what I was doing in Atlanta. And they were tweaking some of it by the end in Atlanta. I think that that's overstated that he was just doing all the Seattle Cover 3 stuff by the end.

But even in the off season when he got fired, he and I talked about it last week. He got fired early in the year. He had a lot of time to think about what he wanted it to be the next place that he went to. And you saw that playing a lot more man on early downs. They played the most man coverage in the league on first down last season in Dallas. That's a change. It's a change from what he was for most of his defensive coaching career. If you look at what Gus Bradley was last season, it mostly aligns with who he's always been.

I mean, the Raiders blitzed on like an absurd. certainly low percentage of their plays. And that's fine, but you need to create some uncertainty for NFL offenses right now. They're too good for you to play the same way over and over again. And they weren't a bad defense in Los Angeles or in Las Vegas last year. They were a fine defense. But if you want to win a Super Bowl with 38-year-old Matt Ryan, I think being a fine defense probably isn't going to be enough.

Yeah. And they have to hope they have some better pieces there than he had. in Las Vegas and that he can build it around that. So that's one I'm watching. And I'm probably with you. I'm a little bit on the fence of whether he's going to do that. It sounds like you're pretty skeptical that he is. But I think that's important for them.

We'll see. I mean, if he does it, great. I'll love watching that group because I think they have good players. I'm excited to see what Quitty Pay is in year two. They've heard nothing but good things about Nick Cross at safety, who's a freaky athlete apparently. Stefan Gilmore's on that team. I think their defensive personnel is pretty good.

But I'm just concerned about the positions that group is going to be put in based on what Gus Bradley has been for the last few years. Gus Bradley is good at what he does. Those guys play fast, they play hard, and they've gotten solid results. But I think at this stage of things, you need to be shooting for more than solid when you have coaches like Ricky Morris, you know, coaching against you. Or Domeko Ryan's or Brandon Staley, guys like that. All right. I think the Colts are totally fine in this tier.

I'm going to put the Saints next. And here's why I have the Saints in here. I think the Saints have the chance to be. So, okay, hear me out. I think the Saints have a chance to be the best defense in the league if things, if they stay healthy. You know, they're an aging group in some areas. Cam Jordan's not getting any younger. Mario Davis isn't getting any younger.

Tyra Matthew isn't either. But I do think they have a chance to be really, really good on defense. And if they're really good on defense, I think football outsiders are projecting to be the best defense in football this year. If they're really good on defense and they catch a version of their offense with the new skill position players that they have and Michael Thomas getting back with James kind of tweaking things just a little bit where it's a tiny bit less volatile. I see a version of the Saints if their defense is a top three unit that gets hot at the right time and can win a Super Bowl. I love it. I didn't have them on my list because I felt like there's the volatility of James Winston. just looking at James Winston with his career low 1.9% interception rate last season.

Yeah. There's only seven starts. I guess I'll, I feel like, you know, okay, I would still bet that James Winston isn't going to just change exactly who he is. Then he had the ACL, so he's coming off of that. So I just feel like the quarterback position ultimately is going to hold them back by the end of the year. But they sure behave this offseason as if, no, they agree that they're in this mix to get

to the Super Bowl. I just need to see that offensively with him better. But this is good. This is good, Robert, because I file this away in the back of my mind. Maybe that's a team that I've underrated. I just think there's a version of it out there. And I don't feel great about that version coming to fruition. But yeah, I mean, their odds are a little bit lower than some of the teams that we're talking about here.

I mean, I don't know who's next on your list, but the Eagles at 26 to 1. That seems pretty rich to me, and I'm excited about the Eagles. I am excited about them too. But it's interesting. So in the odds that I just went before we did the podcast, I googled Super Bowl odds. It was probably to get there and I put it in there. The one I found had like the Saints at plus 4,000. Yeah, they're plus 4,000.

I bet MGM. I'm looking at it right now. And like the Colts are at plus 2,000. That's a big difference, isn't it? Yeah, that seems like too big of a difference to me. Yeah. So the plus 2,000 teams were Sincy, Baltimore, Indy, Cleveland with volatility and Dallas. So if you got New Orleans as 12.

I did not think a ton about how I ranked these teams. I was literally just listing all the ones that I think could make the playoffs or make the Super Bowl. So I want to be clear about that. I do not think the Saints are the 12th best team in the league if I were ranking them. I would have to give that more thought. Okay. Let's do the Raiders next. Are you that far off from them? Are they not in any other group? I am not that far off. They belong in a similar tier to the one we're talking about right now. I did have them. I feel less good about them than I feel about even the Saints, the Cowboys, the Eagles, but I did have them on my list. Okay.

You know what, though? So the one I, the one I had, let's do the Cowboys then. Let's do the Cowboys next. Let's make them 13. They were kind of the next one. I just, I just don't love the whole thing. I just feel like Jerry Jones's ownership is, and structure is not good for the whole setup.

I mean, they just seem like a, we'll do them next because I had them next. but the whole thing with McCarthy, Moore, Quinn, Jerry Jones, it just feels like it's a lot. And then I feel like they've gone backwards in some ways, personnel-wise too. I don't know if the offense is going to be as good. So they're next and their odds line up for next, but I think they have a much better chance of just getting to the playoffs, maybe winning a game than actually winning the whole thing. they have enough good players on both sides of the ball that they could win the Super Bowl. That's why they're on this list to me.

I definitely don't think they're going to. This just smells like a nine and eight season with McCarthy getting fired. That's just what it seems like to me. And I'm going to pose this question to you. Give me one reason that the Dallas Cowboys are going to be better this season than they were last year. The only thing you can come up with is that, that DAC in the second year back is just going to be a little bit more dynamic and consistent that he had an injury last season about six weeks in or whatever that was that he hurt his calf.

He wasn't the same guy. That's the end of the list to me. That's it. And I think there's something to that. Like I thought through the first five or six weeks, I was thinking, wow, he came back better than I thought right away off such a tough injury. And now he could really take off. And then it just didn't happen.

So does he get that? Does he just get fully right this offseason and then carries them in a way that maybe he hasn't done yet? Because there's so many things I like about Deck Prescott. I just think that it's underrated how difficult the situation in Dallas is just structurally with the owner and everything on down. Even if DAC is healthier, they have no receivers outside of Seeding Lamb. Michael Gallup is going to miss time at the beginning of the year. James Washington just got hurt and it feels like the world is ending. I think that's all you need to know about the state of their skill position group.

There is just no other place that it feels like, oh, yeah, that's why they're going to be better this year. Quarterback health is obviously a huge component of it, but that's where the list begins and ends to me. Mike, this team was the number one in defensive DVOA last year. They were number one. The amount of value they created off of turnovers is completely unsustainable. It's not happening. Even if you're optimistic about the defense, they're the 10. best defense in the league.

The defense could actually improve and have worse production. Yes. Just because of how many breaks they got last year. There are just so few pathways to me for them to be better than they were a year ago. I just keep seeing them falling flat and being like, we need to reset this thing, man. Yes, but one of the pathways is in the NFC where you could make a case that Carson Wentz is a sixth best quarterback. You know, you could make a case.

it is a little bit different. I will not be making that case. I don't even know what the list looks like. I am not going to make that case. No, I know, but you could say Jalen Hertz says. You can say Jalen Hertz says. I mean, just look at the NFC, all the quarterbacks in the NFC. I'm saying if you had a middling guy, you could say Winston's the six best.

Just do it. Do the exercise in the NFC. And that gives them a chance, but I don't feel good about it. So anyway, that's where we are in Dallas. Talking about Jalen Hertz, I think the Eagles deserve to be on this list. I think the Eagles have so much talent. on both sides of the ball. I mean, just dropping A.J. Brown onto that team.

Devante Smith is now the number two receiver. They have arguably the best offensive line in the league. I think that their staff last year, I feel a lot differently now about them than I did at the beginning of last season or even halfway through last season. Their ability to kind of change and shape shift midway through the year. I think defensively, their players are just better this year. Dropping Jordan Davis into that situation, Hassan Reddick, James Bradbury,

even if they're a top 12-ish defense. and J.1 Hertz takes enough of a step forward. I think they have a pretty big set of outcomes where they make the playoffs. And I think by definition, they are a contender. In that division for sure. Now, obviously they made it last year and then were just blown out by an actual playoff team. So I question their ceiling offensively for the purposes of playoffs.

I think most of the other teams that we have, other than San Francisco, that we have talked about, had kind of a quarterback that might have some blue shading on there for me, right? somebody who's in and around the top 10. You can make a case for it or you can make a case for Matt Ryan, you know, having a bounce back year. Hurtz, I totally like him. I just don't know he's going to be enough better than what he's been and that they're going to have to play the offense a certain way and all of that.

But I totally am with you on the roster. And like as we're talking about Philly, like I kind of, I think Philly might be more likely to win that division than Dallas. But I think. Oh, I think the Eagles are a better team than the Cowboys right now. I do too. I think the differences when I talk about what your ceiling is, I feel like Dak Prescott has a higher one, you know?

So that's why I mentioned them first, but I think you could certainly make a case. I think Philly is a solid team. I think they're just solid. I don't think there's a high floor for Philly, don't you? Yes, I do. I absolutely think that they do. Well, I think Dallas could be all over the map.

Dallas has more bad outcomes, don't you think? Yes. I absolutely think the Cowboys have more situations where they go under 500 than the Eagles do this year, even with questions about Jalen Hertz. All right. So, yeah. If we were doing power rankings, I'd put Philly above them. But when we're talking about Super Bowl, I'm like, okay, you know, I could see back, you know.

Yeah, these are all clustered in there. And that's fine. All right. I think that might also be a tier break for me. Okay. And then I have four more teams. Well, we already talked about the Colts. I had the Colts lower, but I could easily put the Colts in that group that we just talked about, okay?

So I have three more teams then. We just talked about the Raiders. I think the Raiders probably have to be here. I do not think the Raiders are going to win the Super Bowl. No, but we don't think most of those teams we just talked about are going to win it. But I can see a – I mean, I can make a case for the Raiders having a better year than Denver. We talked about Denver like a half hour ago. Just because if you had to, if you had a stock here that you had to invest in,

and one of them was Derek Carr with Josh McDaniels and Devante Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfro. Or you had to pick Russell Wilson and Hackett in the first year with, you know, Tim Patrick's out and we'll see how the rest of the receivers do. You'd make a real case that the Raiders have the edge there, couldn't you? Yeah, but the Raiders' offensive line is not good. I'm just sitting here looking at it and just keeps giving me pause. It's not good.

I know it's easy to get excited about Adams and he looks great in the uniform and I'm also excited about it, but I still have questions about how good it's going to be right away, even dropping him into that situation. I think they're going to be a good team. I think they're going to be a solid team. I would bet on them moving forward.

I just can't get excited about them winning the Super Bowl this year. Yeah. I'm not excited about it. We're just making a case for some of these teams that are in the middle of the league. can do it. There is a world in which it all comes together right now. They, again, talk about how different their defense is going to look after moving on

from Gus Bradley. And maybe their ceiling on that side of the ball is higher. They have Chandler Jones and Max Crosby. Maybe they just take over games, having some functional human beings on the back end, trading for Rocky Sin. Maybe that group is good enough to kind of get them where they're going. But there aren't that many cases I can build for them. but there is at least one case, and that's why they have to be here.

Yeah, it could be at Chandler Jones, comes back defensive players a year type season, and oh yeah, they have Max Crosby too. You could see something like that. Yeah, and maybe those guys take over, and Devante is just clearly the best receiver in the league, and the way he fits with Waller is fine, and they mitigate the past protection just because he's getting rid of the ball so quick, whatever. Whatever version of it you want to build, I can get there, but just not as easy as I can with a lot of these other teams.

What about the – speaking of Josh McDaniels, Do you have the Patriots on your list? I did not put an X next to them. I did have the Patriots. Okay. Just because if I don't have them on here and then fucking Bill Belichick wins the Super Bowl, I'll just never hear the end of it for the rest of my life. So I'm just putting them on here just to protect myself.

Like that full disclosure. Yeah. They're in the AFC. That's a big problem for them. You know, it would just take a lot for them to, even overcome Buffalo in their own division, let alone be going on the road and playing some of these teams that really have the top quarterbacks in that conference. So I think you're safe. That's not going to happen. I got real questions about, I'm not sure what they're doing. Obviously, their allocation of

staffing on offense could make sense to some degree in that they didn't want to go get an outside system and hire someone to do something totally different than what the Patriots have done. But this doesn't feel right with how they're set up to coordinate the offense. And do they have good enough weapons? Is Mack Jones already about what he's going to be, which is good? I mean, he's fine, but I just have a hard time punts thinking they're going to go to the Super Bowl and win it. I have all of these points I agree with. I agree with every single one of them, but I just think there's like a 0.02% chance that he, Bella checks his way into this.

And I want to account for that. We got it covered. We did it. Hey, you heard it here. Patriots could win the Super Bowl this year in 2022. You're waving a finger. I have one more team. I have one more team.

Okay. Can I guess who it is? I have Arizona. I have Arizona. Oh, you can guess who is. So I want to, you're saying Arizona, do we not mention Tennessee at all? I do not have Tennessee on my list. It's amazing.

The number one seat in the NFC last year. We're not even saying they have a chance. Tell me why the Titans are better than they were last year. I'm not. I've been predicting their doom for two years, and they make me look like I have no feel for the Titans, which must be true. They're unbelievable to me. They're unbelievable what they do. I think Mike Frabble's really, really good at what he does. I just don't think the players on this team are currently good enough for them to win a super battle. I agree. I have faith in their ability to move through this, and maybe over the next couple years, they figure out what the next version of it looks like. I feel good about the people in charge,

whether it's Vable or John Robinson or the job they've done over the last three or four years. But you look at this roster right now. I just don't see it. You swap out A.J. Brown for Traylin Burks and Robert Woods. Like, that's fine. I understand the moves, but hard to think that group is going to be better than it was with A.J. Brown. The offensive line of this team is a huge question mark.

I mean, they have Dylan Radunes who didn't play last year, slot in a right tackle, or possibly fighting for that job with no. Nicholas Petit Ferrer, who's the third round pick. So many questions for me on offense after, you know, we knew what they were. We knew what they were when the formula was working for them. I don't know what the formula is anymore outside of Derek Henry. I think they could be fine. Yeah, I think they could be fine.

But I just don't think that they have a very high ceiling on that side of the ball. And I think their defense is going to be fine. I liked a lot of the things they did last year. But, I mean, for the most part, Mike, this is the same group we saw last year. It's the same collection of players. you're basically saying that to me you could have been describing the Patriots there except the Patriots have Belichick and we have a little bit of lingering fear. That's it.

It's the only difference. It's the only reason the Patriots are on this list in mine aren't and the Titans aren't. I will say this. Being a hypocrite or talking out of both sides of my mouth, this is where it is actually true. I think the Vikings and the Raiders have like the same chances to me. I think their quarterbacks are in a similar tier. I feel so much better about the offensive coaching the Vikings are going to get. I think their offensive line is actually pretty decent.

Justin Jefferson is a superstar. And I didn't have them on and I did have the Raiders on. I'm going to account for that by taking the Raiders off my list. I do not think the Raiders can win the Super Bowl. I will say that and I will endure the flames if they ended up doing it. And you, so you'd mention Arizona, do you want to put Minnesota on? Because the path for Minnesota is also in the NFC. I mean, I think that really increases their ability.

So here's why Arizona is in for me and the Vikings aren't. I think that there is a Kyler goes supernova version of things for the Cardinals that I feel like it makes me have to put them on this list. Yeah. That's really fair. That's really fair. Because at his best, unbelievably, his highlight reels as good as anybody. I just see, I just think if you watch all the plays, it's a lot of inconsistency up and down, shoot, when they put that thing in his contract. I mean, that just amplifies everything you've been hearing behind the scenes.

And I just wonder if he's going to be sort of mature enough as a quarterback to be as consistent as he's going to need to be. But what you're talking about, the ability to just get hot, catch fire. I think maybe they get DeAndre Hopkins back after six games and they actually finish a season strong as opposed to just tailing off. Yeah. I just think that his upside, his ceiling, what we've seen from him. and stretches that makes me put them on this list. By taking the Raiders off, there's kind of a through line of the teams that just missed it for me. Raiders, Vikings, dolphins, I just don't think this is the year.

Even if you're excited about the new coaching staff and where they could go over the next two seasons maybe, they're just not there for me quite yet. I think I need to see a little bit more. Yep, and I'm out of teams. I don't know who else we would put on there. That's it. That's all I had. So, like, the Cardinals were the only team I had that you didn't, I guess. And you didn't have the Saints.

Yeah. And I didn't have the Raiders at the end of course. And I would have put on the Raiders and Tennessee. You know, I probably would have put Tennessee in there just without being able to explain it. I just say, you know what? They were the number one seed. I have no idea how they've been way better than I thought they were going to be. I don't know anything about the Titans other than at the end of the year.

They're better than Mike Sando thinks they are every freaking year. So good for them. But I feel like it just can't keep happening that way because I'd be able to to explain it better. Yeah, I think that's totally fair. It's kind of why I put the Patriots on. I don't really have a good reason why I put them on, but this, our exercise would have felt incomplete if I didn't.

So basically half the league. You're saying half the league. We said about half the league has some kind of, you make a case of, half the league can win the Super Bowl. If everything breaks right for them, I think half the league can win the Super Bowl. I think the list of true contenders is much smaller than this. I think that list is like eight to ten teams. The Bengals really screwed this up.

the Bengals just completely destroyed how we can approach this conversation. Yeah, no, this is a great conversation, though. I love that you were that, you know, that you, like what I learned from you was, what you talked about the Saints was interesting to me because if they are that good defensively, there is a path forward to do well with a middling quarterback, and James Winston has the talent. I thought that was really interesting. So their team, I've kind of put a mark on Sando, don't be so down on them.

And Arizona, the volatility on Kyler, it's been a little bit of a negative offseason for him, but there's a lot of good there. too. The Saints could be a train wreck. They could be a train wreck. They could have two injuries on defense to guys that are creeping up toward my age. James could just be all over the map. They have Dennis Allen is their head coach. Their offense can take a step back in terms of just the coaching and play calling all of that stuff. They could win seven games or they could be a Super Bowl contender. I think all of those things are on the table, but because they have a chance in my mind if everything breaks right, I just have to include them here.

Okay, it's good. All right. That was fun. I very much enjoyed that. It's always a good exercise to go through as we're on the break of the season. It's really great. I've got this whole thing, color-coded on here now. It helps me, so I appreciate it.

I appreciate you putting that much work into it. I definitely don't have a color-coded chart here as I got five hours of sleep in Buffalo before driving to Rochester last night. Not a lot of color-coded charts into my life right now. I got five hours sleep in Buffalo and didn't even remember it. I checked into Buffalo twice. So I need color-coded charts just to be. get to the right room maze. Okay. So thanks for the convo and we'll do it again. Have

have a great trip. Sounds good. Appreciate you. All right, guys, it's time to get to our chat with Zach Jackson. Let's do it. All right. It's time now to chat with our Browns writer here at the athletic, Zach Jackson. Zach, how you doing? Um, every day's the twilight zone here. No, it's pretty normal, right? I was going to ask you. Business as usual over here. Yeah. I've been through a lot of these. There's been a lot of strange ones, obviously. Um, but this one is different. I mean, and it's Every day has been different since March 18th. So we had the ruling last Monday, and it was the ruling for like 48 hours. And it was super bizarre because it was right here, Robert, about 10 feet from where we're sitting,

that Deshawn Watson was signing autographs. And then he was told, like, it was maybe 20 minutes after practice that the appeal was filed. And now, you know, however many days later, I don't even know, five or so, six, we're waiting again. What's the most surreal part of this been? Has it been the moments like that? has it been the idea that he's taking all the first team reps, but he might not be the quarterback. And even like I'm sitting right now,

reporters are asking Judge Rick Wills, what it's like to block for Deshawn Watson compared to blocking for Baker Mayfield. Stuff that you would hear at training camp, right? The sort of questions that you get this time of year, but he might not be the quarterback. It just feels like it's such a moving target in terms of what you'd actually want to know

and what's actionable and what you can learn at this time of year because there's a chance none of it matters a month from now. Yeah, when you say surreal, I'm like, I've personally moved myself past that. Yeah, you have to. You coming in here, it's a very fair question. I enjoy the segments of practice when he plays because he's so much better than everybody else. And you're watching this really great player and you're seeing what this offense can be.

But every day, I think, why is he in the huddle? Like, what are we missing here from the reality here, guys? You know? They're just lying to themselves about how this is going to unfold. And a certain point does Jacoby need the reps? This is my question. Like, I supported the move. I gave the Browns of benefit of the doubt that they did all their research.

And I think I was wrong there. Like, there is no way that him missing his season justifies this trait. And there's no way that taking this on and thinking that you were ready as an organization, because they're clearly not. There's just one day there's no media interviews. We've heard from Watson twice. They've both been awful press conferences. There's no answer.

We don't know what the plan is. And you're taking a roster that is good enough to be a real AFC contender. And you're saying essentially that you can't make the playoffs. Now, we'll see, and I don't want to be firm in that, but let's just be honest, the ceiling of this is really low, and the rest of the AFC is really good. Punting on a team this talented is one of the tougher parts about this. If you, let's say through all of this, you remain a Browns fan,

or you're a member of this organization, you weren't fully on board with the move, but you really liked a lot of the things that they had done before that, which I am one of those people, right? You look at everything that Andrew Barry had done up to this deal, And you think, man, they're really building towards something here. The secondary is so young and exciting. They have so many pieces.

The financial flexibility they had to go out and really build up the rest of this roster, even this year, going back and getting Chenevian Clowning and bringing him back in, the talent that they have along the offensive line in the backfield, making the Amari Cooper trade. This is a really good team. And now there's a chance that this season just barely matters, that they have to just hold on with Chicobee percent, and we move into 2023, and you lose an entire year of, of what this was supposed to be from a team building perspective. And it's just a strange, strange situation.

And all justified, all correct. If he missed the year, he probably should. But if you're not involved in adding him or you're just a part of this team trying to go about your daily life, it has to be a really, really weird thing to navigate. Yeah, I completely agree. I mean, listen, this is the first time since Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn were the quarterbacks here that they've brought back a head coach and GM for the third straight year. The coordinators are back.

The roster is full of guys who are proven NFL talents and have done it for three, four, five, six years, right? They've never had this kind of combination of talent here. So this training camp, really, there's like 30 young guys competing for six spots. You know, if there's a training camp surprise cut in two or three weeks, it's going to be a surprise. Like, they've established this, this, you know, through pretty good drafting, through pretty good signings, through having guys cornerstone pieces, Garrett, and Chubb and Ward. And now it looks like Newsom is ready to be as good as Denzel Ward. only 16 games into his career, right?

So yeah, it's a bizarre universe every day. It just is. But, you know, they're not going to be- What's the hardest part about that reality? Let's say he doesn't play. Let's say this version of the team no longer exists after the season, because that's how the NFL works. Yeah.

You are your team for one year. What is the piece that has lost the most? That was this temporal thing by next year we may not even have, as we understand it right now on this Browns roster. I mean, the deepest running game in the league. You know, they have invested, slowly but surely in the offensive line and the run game to be the core here. They paid

both guards last year. They paid Chubb last year, which was a no-brainer. They paid Cream Hunt two years ago, which was a surprise, but at the time it made great sense because it was a team-friendly deal. This Deerunis Johnson has come out of nowhere. They draft Jerome Ford. He looks like he's ready to play. Like Nick Chubb out here looks like a beast and draft

him in fantasy and invest in him, right? But like, if Jacoby percent's your quarterback, and even if your defense is as good as you think it can be, and it finished last year playing really, really well. Every game's going to be a grinder. Every game is going to be 17 or 20 points have to make your kicks, have to win the penalty and turn over war, because there's nothing that's going to come easy with an offense that can really only run the ball. My understanding of the

situation is that for however long the Sean suspended Jacoby percent will be the starting quarterback. Is that your understanding of the situation? That's always been Plan A. Now, I think if we hear in the next however, Rennie hours that he's out, that Plan A is out the window. I think it has to be. But yes, they were on the Jacoby contract hours after the Watson deal had been announced. He has been here every day, in every meeting, in every practice going back to May 15th. So, you know, I don't think he's good enough. You know, in fairness to he and the other quarterbacks have been out here, the receivers haven't been out here. We're in the elementary stages.

Nobody's winning anything on August 7th, right? But I just think the ceiling becomes so low. and we saw last year when this team struggled in the past game, how it affected everything else. And I just think you're not going to run the ball and play defense and win 11 games in this AFC. Like you have to have that other element. What's Amari's contract situation heading into next year?

So they, he is under contract at big numbers for the next two years after this. They moved money to next year from this year. They're going to be paying Amari Cooper long after Amari Cooper's not here. But he is going to be here this season and the next two at big numbers. Okay. So you think that that's, I'm talking about pieces that may not be around and things that might be shifting. He's going to be here, even if they've moved a little bit of money.

His cap is probably pretty big next year. Yes, huge. I'm trying to figure that out. It's like, right, what does the 2023 Browns look like if we're, again, just kind of moving on from past this year? And the idea that you're doing that is kind of a bummer when you think about the defense and the guys that they have over there. On offense, when you're looking at the question marks that do with this, there aren't many. Most of the roster is pretty set over there.

I would say second through fourth receivers are probably the big thing. How do you see that shaking out no matter who the quarterback is? Well, I think it's pretty clear that Cooper's the one by a wide margin, and Donald & People's Jones is the two by a wide margin. And we've seen flashes from him in camp last year. We've seen flashes from him in games. We haven't seen consistency. I think internally they say, well, we haven't seen consistent quarterback play.

He's 22, 23 years old. Like, he's ready to take that leap. Where it goes from there, I don't know. And at tight end, I don't know. They paid David Njoku. He hasn't caught a ball out here in camp. He doesn't ever catch the ball. So he's this big physical freak, and they extended him

because what Deshawn Watson could do is unlock David Najoku. But what is he going to be without him? I don't know. Harrison Bryant's a really nice player. He's a solid number two tight end on anybody's team. He'll catch it when you need it to. He's not a huge, you know, athletic freak guy, but he'll catch the ball when he's thrown his way.

So David Bell, the rookie, they're excited about. He missed the start of camp. Anthony Schwartz is a super fast guy. He's missed most of the start of camp. How long is he supposed to be out? They're both back in practice. Okay, they are. I wasn't sure how serious.

It's very limited. Yeah. He got hurt on the second day of practice and a simple drill. Was out for a week or eight days and is now being eased back in. My guess is if you're looking at that collection of players, you live mostly in 12 personnel because those are your best four guys, right? When you're in 11, you have some combination of Bell and Schwartz in the slot because it gives you a different flavor. And if you want to put Cooper in there and you want to put Schwartz outside, you know, maybe that's one of those looks that you have. But in 11, I would assume you have two different types of slots that give you two different options

with Cooper and Thubon of People's Jones being the other two. But for the most part, you want to live in 12 personnel because those are your best guys. I agree. I think sometimes you're going to see Cooper move inside. I think they're going to do things to get him away from the number one corner or get tells. He played off the line most of his time in Dallas. Looking at underlying numbers, we had Matt Harmon on the show last week. And it's kind of striking the percentage of his snaps he played off the line of scrimmage in Dallas.

So putting him on and making him deal with press coverage and not hiding him in those moments, I don't know how that's going to go. And we'll see if the Browns kind of extend that plan that the Cowboys have for him. I mean, I just think from watching him out here in camp going all the way back to May, like whoever's the quarterback, if he's not getting 12, 13 targets, most games early in the season, I'll be surprised. Follow the money, man. They're not paying literally any other receiver on this team. All right.

Go to the defensive side. Again, really the only question I feel like is the interior of the defensive line. And you have bets that you've made there. We heard from Perry on Winfrey today. they went out and got Dave and Brian from Jacksonville, which to me is a good low-cost dice roll. Let's see if we can get a tarnished asset from a place not able to take advantage of him. And that's really it. Because other than that, they're flush with players.

I mean, I guess the only real question is the cornerback pecking order and where guys line up. So when they're in nickel, who has been the three corners and where have they been aligned? Well, Denzel has not played yet. So that'll affect that plan. Yes. So Newsom is going to be the slot corner when they're in nickel. We talked to Nate this week about how often that might happen. And I think that's a good plan.

Yes. So, you know, ideally you're going to have Ward. You're going to have Newsom. I think it would be greedy Williams. His injury history says you've got to get the other guys ready. AJ Green is a third-year guy playing for money. You know, frankly, has made big strides. Now, when he got on the field last year, the ball immediately went his way.

Opposing offenses didn't think much of him. We'll see how that goes. And then they have the rookie Martin Ermerson, who's been very impressive in a very limited sample to this point. I mean, he's a big, long guy. Only had one college interception, which kind of concerns me. But when just looking out here, Robert, he looks the part. He looks like he's ready to play.

And they have three safeties on this team. Yes. They have Delpit. They have Ronnie Harrison. They have John Johnson still. They have J.O.K., Anthony Walker. We know about the edge guys. What am I not thinking about in terms of where this could go wrong other than the interior of the defensive?

Yeah, you know, I'm not even thinking in that regard. I was going to say Delpit has looked really good. No, we know injury has been his thing, but he's looked really good. And the other guy at linebacker Jacob Phillips, he was always a developmental guy, but he's had injuries in both of his first two years. And it's not just that they haven't had him. I think it's stunned his progress. Well, he's been out there from the start of this year.

He is big and fast guy. And when you look at J.O.K. Newsom, Delpit Phillips, Ronnie Harrison, John Johnson, who can play everywhere. They have a lot of combinations of which they can play. So I think it just comes down to Clownie and Garrett's health, and then obviously developing the rest of that pass rush room. And then, you know, can you force turnovers and how does it affect the defense if you're in 16, 13, 17, 14 grinders all the time? I mean, we know it can take its toll.

And we'll see. Parian Winfrey, I think, will be starting sooner than later. Then Greg Newsom will hold up just fine in the slot. Smart guy. Arguably, to me, week and a half a camp, best player on the field. Really? Yes. That's good to know because we did a breakout player show yet this morning and he was one of my guys.

So that's fantastic news. Yeah, it's just even sitting here and kind of, I haven't watched practice yet, it's going to be a little bit later today. It's got to be such a strange experience. Just watching a team that I'm sure looks good at times and then just not happening. Well, for a lot of years I've sat out here and you have to track who gets the first quarterback rep because it's, you know, sometimes it was Cody Kessler or Brock Osweiler or Seneca Wallace or Copacke. I forgot about the Brock Osweiler experience. But now it's like, okay, there's Watson. It's been Watson every day.

so far and then when does Brissette come in? And then, of course, has anything changed at the bottom where Josh Dobbs will move up to number two and Rosen will move up to number three. And so I am, as we await the Watson decision, I'm scanning depth charts, looking for who else might be out there if it's not Jimmy G. And the options are just so few. The free agent market is none. You know, would Washington trade Tyler Henneke, Wood, Philly trade, Gardner Minshu,

based on what those teams have currently, the answer is no. So we'll just have to see what happens. Anything else that I'm not thinking about enough? Well, they moved up in the fourth round to get Cade York. And, you know, he is a Texas kid who played at LSU and he's going to need to make kicks in weather he's never seen. But for May and June and July and August, he looks incredible. I mean, he's out here by him and Robert, 45 to 55 with plenty to go.

I think he's missed two kicks total in four or five, you know, competitive sessions out here going back to the spring. He didn't miss many. It just looks and sounds when it come. comes off his foot like it's supposed to. And special teams have been bad here. And that's something that shouldn't be with continuity. I mean, the special teams coach Mike Prefer was here even before Stifansky was.

So they upgraded the overall athleticism. They upgraded the kicking game. They should get things out of kicking, you know, more out of the special teams than they've gotten. And again, we'll just see, like, you know, is it going to have to be grinder, close, low-scoring games that you have to win all the time? All right. Zach Jackson, thank you very much, my friend. Very good to catch up with you.

good to see you. I really appreciate it. I'm sure we'll talk again soon. All right. That's all we got for today. Thank you so much to Mike. Thank you to Zach Jackson. Really enjoy chatting with both of them. We will be back tomorrow with Daniel Jeremiah for Metafone Network. Really excited about that conversation. We'll also have a Bill's camp visit with Joe Buscaglia. So please come back and check that out. In the meantime, please rate, interview the podcast on your podcast platform of choice. I'd really appreciate that. Please subscribe to the athletic. The Athletic. dot com slash football show where you can read all of the work from our writers it is very hard to properly follow the NFL at this stage in the calendar if you do not have a subscription

athletic.com slash football show please check that out we'll be back tomorrow appreciate you guys listening talk to you later this was the athletic football show