The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Who has the most at stake in the 2026 NFL Draft?

Episode Date: March 26, 2026

The NFL Draft matters to all 32 teams, all 32 GMs, all 32 head coaches and, in some form or fashion, every single player in the league. Any individual draft, however, matters more to certain teams, GMs, coaches and players. So who has the most at stake in the 2026 NFL Draft? Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen dig deep into that question on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Host: Robert MaysCo-Hosts: Derrik Klassen and Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerSenior Producer: Katy DuffySocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Fun show on tap for you guys today. Each year we like to talk about the teams that have the most at stake in an upcoming NFL draft, which teams have a ton riding on how this thing is going to go. That can mean because they have a lot of picks. That can mean because the general managers on the hot seat. There's so many different considerations that drive the stakes in a given draft in a

given year. And so Derek and I wanted to spend a little bit of time today digging into about 10 or so teams that fit the bill. Those are the teams that because they have a ton of top 100 picks like the dolphins or because it seems like their GM is an inflection point like the Ravens, have a ton riding on this draft specifically. So that's what we dug into today, the teams that have the most at stake in the 2026 NFL draft.

If you're listening on Apple Podcasts, you can now watch video there too. Just update to the latest iOS and head to our show page to start watching. I've done the show over the last few years, and I think it's just a good, good table setting exercise as we really dig into draft season here and just think about who really has the most riding on this draft and we've typically focused on teams Derek but I think we'll be able to dig into why these teams are in this conversation and who associated with these teams really does have a lot at play when it comes to the 2026 draft class yeah I'm excited for this one because I think we have I don't know a dozen or so maybe just shy of that teams and I think they're probably

like very different reasons for half of them to be on. They're like half of these teams are good teams, but half of them are very, very bad. And so it's just a wide array of teams that we're going to hit here. Well, I mean, here's an example I'll throw out, right? The Saints, right? Like, the Saints have a top 10 pick in this year's draft. The Saints don't have like a ton riding on this draft. They're in the middle of like a, in my opinion, kind of well orchestrated reset.

Like, it would be great if they found a really nice player with the seventh overall pick. Obviously, as you're trying to. to accumulate young pieces as you're starting a new era. It's really important to hit on some of these drafts. But if the seventh overall pick in this draft isn't a star for the Saints and they come out of this draft with like one starter, it's not necessarily going to derail who the New Orleans Saints want to be over the next five years. Yeah, if that guy's not a star and they still go like eight and nine and Shuck looks fine

again, it's like they'll probably be okay. It's not really a make or break season. Like nobody's going to lose their job over a draft like that. And you find this, you find a starter in the second round, your third round pick. is like a rotational piece on your defensive line. Like that's acceptable. For other teams, there is a lot more riding on this for a whole variety of reasons. And so let's start with the first team that was on my list.

And it was funny when you and I were going back and forth, you were like, I forget to mention this team, but in reality, they have a ton riding on this draft. How about the Las Vegas Raiders? How about we start there? We should probably start with the team that has the first overall pick. Yes. And when we were going back and forth, I was like, I kind of just forget to talk about. because the first pick is pre-spent, but that doesn't mean that the first pick is going to be good.

Like, I think I really like Fernando Mendoza. I think a lot of people like Fernando Mendoza, but there's no guarantee that he's going to be good. It's not like this is like a Drake May caliber prospect or like Caleb Williams or Andrew Luck or anything like that. Like he's good enough to go first overall. But this is no like guarantee like we get with some other guys at this position. Yeah, when you're taking a quarterback with your first round pick, period. But if you're taking a quarterback with a top five picker for the first overall pick,

You obviously have an unbelievable amount riding on the draft, even if there is some certainty and what your pick is going to look like because I was trying to figure out the right number of years to attach to the sentence. And I'm curious where you would land with this. How many years of your franchise, if you had to guess, just throw out like an estimate, are tied to this quarterback that you were taking with the number one overall pick? How many of the next years of your team will this dictate in a good or bad way? I mean, at least a half a decade.

Because let's say he's not great and you spend two or three years trying to figure out how good he is. And then you get to the end of that road when it's time to like pay him and you're not sure you want to do that. And then you've got to restart it quarterback. Well, even the, even if the next quarterback is good, the first year or two of that, there's going to be residual effects of like maybe our team never accomplished enough. They're still not good enough. Now you're trying to reinsert a new 21 year old rookie into this. Like there is at least a half decades worth of stuff going into this. And that's not always quite true.

Right. Like the Cardinals, obviously. I think it's usually worse. I think that's the best case scenario. It probably is like, and there are some very small, there are some very rare outlier circumstances like the Cardinals, for example. They draft Josh Rosen there immediately like, that sucks. We're going to draft Kylo Murray.

And they ended up pretty good, like pretty quickly. So sometimes you can get that. More often than not, you end up like kind of running the mill again where you kind of end up on this, the quarterback treadmill pretty consistently. So if you look at the last like five to 10 years of quarterback picks and how long it took these teams to rebound, I think the most realistic answer here is, is seven years. And here's why I landed on seven years.

You're going to spend the first three years tinkering with that guy. It doesn't really matter how bad year one is. In year two, you're going to talk yourself into a little bit of an improvement, and then after year three goes bad, that's when you know that this thing is probably over. That's how it typically goes

outside of outlier cases like the Cardinals that you mentioned. Then it depends on how the rest of your team goes. For the most part, even teams that miss on a quarterback in the top five, they're allowed to spend other resources in such a way that the rest of the roster gets good enough, where even if the quarterback is bad, you're not necessarily utter dog shit everywhere else. So if you're somewhere like a middle of the road team, then the next two years, because you don't have a pathway to picking another quarterback, you spend the next two years tinkering with veteran options that are kind of like off-ramp

quarterbacks. This is where, I mean, they didn't take three years, but this is exactly where the Vikings are right now. with Kyler Murray. This is where the Jets were with Aaron Rogers. Like, this is what happens if you miss out on the first round guys. Like, all right, well now. The Steelers did this after missing Kenny Pickett. The Steelers are exactly in this boat with Kenny Pickett. They're still moving through this. And so now it's like, all right, this guy didn't work out, but we have the 14th pick in the draft because our defense was good. We don't really have an avenue to find another guy. So who's available at quarterback? You spend at least a couple of years figuring out that

version of it, then that doesn't work out. And usually, you've done enough borrowing and compromising and trying to get the most out of that version of the roster, where then you spend another two years having to dig out of that hole. So if you look back on it, seven is what I landed on. And I think there are two teams that jump out to me. Kyler and two are very interesting cases, right? Because Kyler wasn't necessarily a huge swing and miss, but you're almost better off just

completely swinging and missing than having to. like go ride through the middle for two additional years. Like we're seven years removed from Kyler getting drafted by the Cardinals. We're six years removed from Tua getting drafted by the Dolphins. And those are the two teams that I think if you look at the entire NFL are the most tearing it down and starting over franchises in the league. So it really is like at least five and often seven years that are attached to this sort of pick if you're drafting a quarterback this high.

And I think those two cases in particular, I would say especially the Cardinals, are really important cases for what you were talking about where it's like, if the quarterback is not definitively like a top eight guy where he can kind of survive almost any roster build, you do have to be pretty good at building the rest of the roster around him. And like the Cardinals in particular just did not do that. The Dolphins are a different consideration where it's like, they kind of speed ran, like just like pumped up the credit card for a couple of years

and they didn't quite win what they wanted to. And then it blew up and they were like, we're going to move on. But the Cardinals were like, they kind of just didn't build a very good roster for two or three years. there and things started to fall apart around Kyla Murray. You change head coaches after a guy, you know, away from a guy who, in theory, his offense fit him better. And then now you've got to do all this recycling. And so the Cardinals really probably are like the best example of kind of what you're talking

about here. Yeah. So seven years since Kyle was drafted, Zach Wilson was 2021. It's going to be at least 2028 before the Jets are competitive again. The best example to me, again, you said the Steelers, that was one where I had down. It's been four years since they missed on Kenny Pickett. They're still working through it. The best case scenario here, like the off ramp,

kind of presentation that I had where you're going to a veteran guy who's available, you're trying to make the most out of that version of it, even if the guy you drafted in the first round wasn't your long-term starter. The best possible version of this is Tom Brady with the bucks. Like that is the case where it actually worked out, but that is such a unicorn, like once in a lifetime set of circumstances that had to fall into place. For the most part, that's not happening. And the fun part about that is, who is the guy now drafting Fernando Mendoza and having to

make sure that he's avoiding that scenario. It's Tom Brady. That is a really funny way to circle it around. Yeah, like if the only way to get out of this hole is to just sign the 40-year-old Hall of Fame quarterback who still has plenty of juice, I mean, a team should just do that every year. All right. So that's the team at the top. Obviously, you have a ton riding on a draft when you're picking guy number one overall, no matter how much we like or don't like Fernando Mendoza. Who is the next team that you wanted to mention? I mean, I think the easiest one to go to is just the team that has a million picks, which we've already talked about a little bit, is the Miami Dolphins. Like, I, in the sense of, like, are people going to get fired over this draft immediately?

I don't think so. Like, this regime is probably going to get more than one year almost no matter what. But when you have this many top 100 picks, like, we almost never see a team have this many top 100 picks. So they have two first round picks. They have pick 43, pick 75, pick 87, pick 90, and pick 94. Like, it's an unbelievable amount of draft picks. And so we talked about it before.

When you give up who was, I mean, would you say Jalen Waddle was the best player on the roster when they traded him away? Probably. Yeah. In terms of what you could get the most for, I think it's undeniable Jalen Waddle. 100%. And so to trade away your best player, you really only have like one or two, maybe three other guys who could, even in great circumstances, get to a probable like a Devon H&N, maybe like a Jordan Brooks. Other than that, this is a roster that is entirely stripped down. And you really need to go into this like, I think this is also a really good.

interesting thing with the dolphins too in that they're bringing over so many Packers guys and the Packers guys for the longest time have been like draft and developed, draft and develop, draft and develop. And so to immediately go into their first draft class with a million draft picks, I do think is really interesting. So they have seven top 100 picks and my brain went to the same place. How often does that happen? And so there's, there's no clean way to do this. Like if you go use like Pro Football Reference or Stadhead, maybe there is one and somebody should let me know if there is. But I was trying to figure out who has had the most top 100 picks in a single draft over the last like 10 to 15 years. And so I literally combed through every draft over the last 15 years to look.

There has been one other team that from again, maybe I missed one. This was a very analog way of doing this. But I found one other team since 2010 that had seven top 100 picks. It was actually very recent. Can you guess who that team was? Wait, I feel like I was just doing this. Was it, Did the Cardinals in like two or three years ago, was it them? Yes. Okay, because I was just, we're going to talk about them as well. And so I was coming through some of their draft classes. And they drafted a dozen players in, what was it, 23?

24. 24. That's right. They had seven top 100 picks. And so I want to talk about the directions this sort of draft can go because it's not a guarantee, even if you have seven top 100 picks, that this is going to be kind of the arsenal of guys that restocks your roster. So the Cardinals, seven top 100 picks in 2024.

Marvin Harrison, Darius Robinson, Max Melton, Trey Benson, Isaiah Adams, tip Ryman, cornerback Elijah Jones. Those are the seven top 100 picks for the Cardinals in 2024. I would say, at best, the results have been mixed with those seven top 100 picks. That's not great. Like, they're like, I would say Melton is a pretty good player.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is such like a mystery box. Like I think in theory he's a good player. He's had some moments, but that's just like, I don't even know what to do with that, which given you spent like a top five pick on him, is pretty concerning. And then, like, the next best win there is what? Like, Tip Ryman is a really good tight end two for you.

And you spent a third round pick on that. Like that's a tight end two. I mean, essentially tight on three. He's very much a role player, which is fine. He's also been hurt a lot. Right. You know, Tray Benson's been banged up. They literally just signed Tyler Alger.

So that room wasn't solid enough with just Tray Brinson and James Connor. So not a great result for the team that had the most top 100 picks in the last 15 years. There were four other. teams if the Cardinals had seven that year that had six to me the best case scenario here the draft you are hoping for if you are the Miami Dolphins is similar to the draft that the Lions had in 2023 that's when they got Jemir Gibbs Jack Campbell Sam Laporta Brian Branch their other two top 100 picks that year Hendon hooker and Broderick Martin okay that that is those first four is like that's about as good as it gets that and the other one you need be hoping for if you're the dolphins we did

it on a mailbox like two weeks ago. What is it good draft for the dolphins? And I think we said four to five players of those seven top 100 picks. And that's what the Lions got. Yeah, you want that or again, like we talked about it on the mailback, what the Browns did last year, where you get a couple of guys that are like very obvious going to be like playmaking players for you, pro bowl type of players for you. And so yeah, if they could have that lion's draft or, I mean, those are obviously pie in the sky right. And so maybe if you get only three great players instead of that, that's still probably a good hit. But those two are like, that is about as good as it gets.

So the other one, the other three that there were six top 100 picks in the same draft. 2020 Dolphins with those two additional first round picks. That was the Tua, Austin, Jackson, no egg binogamy draft. They also drafted Robert Hunt, Rayquan Davis, and Brandon Jones. The 2016

Browns, Corey Coleman, Emmanuel Agua, Carl Massib, Sean Coleman, Cody Kessler, Joe Schobert. Awful. And then the 2012 Rams, which this, This is one where these are some names, boy.

Michael Brockers, Brian Quick, Isaiah Peed, Janoris Jenkins, Tremaine Johnson, Chris Givens. Were the Rams 6th one top 100 picks that year. Jenkins and Tremaine Johnson were a pretty good cornerback duo there for a minute. They were good. But just think about what we wanted. We wanted Brian Quick to be something so badly. We all wanted Brian Quick to be just something he never was.

But that's it. So those are these six times or the five times that it has happened with six top 100 picks or more. since 2010 that I found. And there was only one with seven. And that's where the dolphins are right now. And you know what? If we're being realistic, that Rams draft is like probably like the median-ish outcome, right?

Where it's like Brockers is a pretty good. Yes, like you take Brockers high in the draft, ends up being a pretty good player for you. And then through those other mid-round picks, you get like a mix of like fine-ish role players and then like two good starters in Shremaine Johnson and Jenkins, obviously. But how scary is it that we have five examples of this with at least six guys,

and there are two of them where you're like, I could live with that. That's it, 40%? This is the thing. I think we all love draft picks as dart throws.

Dart throws can be anything. That's the problem. And you're going to get these draft picks where, or these draft classes where 15% of your guys are good. And that's just, obviously, that's not what the dolphins want, but that's where you can end up.

There are a lot of teams with five. There are probably a dozen examples of five, but six and seven, those are the outliers. But one of the other ones that you wanted to mention that I get why you have this team on your list, but it was at least a little bit surprising when you sent this over. You think the Los Angeles Rams are one of the teams that has the most at stake in this draft. State your case. They're trying to win a Super Bowl this year.

Like this is it. I know we've done the thing with Stafford for a couple of years now, but like this has to be the one. I don't wait for the 27 offseason. I know. This is it. This is it. This is the last ride for Stafford. They have some other.

MVP again. They have some new other medical contraption to put him in for the offseason. And we don't see him until-he's like a bionic man. Exactly. Like, yeah, neither of his arms are real at that point. So he's actually only 38 right now. So he'll be 39 next year when we have this conversation again. With all the back stuff, it's like you got to tack on a couple of years.

You know, he's he's functionally like 42, 43. There is no better example in the NFL right now. We're probably in professional sports right now than the look at him. He's a miracle. I can't believe he's still alive and he's 38. Matthew Stafford is six months. months younger than me. I'm talking about him like he's dragging his limbs around. Just getting banged up everywhere, man. He's a true Ironman one way or another. But my case is like,

so obviously they had multiple first round picks. They trade one of them away to go get Trent McDuffie, which they should. Their other first round pick though is higher than they typically pick at 13. They don't always get picks that high. And this is going to be a range where in this class, if they really want to load up on offensive line again, and like I know McClendon has been fine and Jackson just been fine, but if they want to upgrade it, tackle, they could do that. If they really want to upgrade at linebacker, like there might be a guy that they like there if one of those guys falls or if they really love Anthony Hill or whatever it is. Or maybe you trade back and get a CJ Allen. They have a chance to get a serious playmaker at 13 in a way that they always don't. And that, when you are trying to fight for a Super Bowl and you are, I would guess right now that they have like the third best Super Bowl odds or something like that. It's number one. They're first. That totally makes sense. And to hold that crown getting a guy like at 13. who could be like a true, true star for you, I really do think that that's the thing

that could kind of kick them into overdiving and actually give them a shot again. They're one of the more fun teams, and I'm sure we'll do this exercise a million times. We'll do it on the clock, maybe next week, Katie. I can't count. So they might be one of the six teams we're doing next week at 13.

We'll do this very soon when we talk about the different options they have. They're one of those teams, I think, is really fun just because you could justify anything. Like, if you wanted to leave the top 13 and say, now we can live with Warren McClendon at Ray Tackle. Like he was fine when Habenstein got hurt last year. We could do that for one more year, even though he's in the final year of his deal.

That's a rationalization that you wouldn't even have to like talk yourself into that. He'd be like, oh, we can do that. Devante, his contract is up after this year. This team is still an 11 personnel 60% of the time. And I mean, this, there and them specifically is so funny because every year, it seems like they want the shiniest object possible and just ignoring whatever the practical move happens to be they tried to trade up for tetaroa macmillan they tried to trade up for brock bowers so if like macaille lemmon is sitting there for them at 13 even if they know the more

prudent thing might be taking the tackle that is going to be an upgrade is going to be a foundational piece for you for the next five years i wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they were just like a f we're taking the playmaker we don't really care or kenyon sadeek where it's like yeah he really wanted bowers so bad they can justify that after after drafting ferguson in the second round last year. Listen, I like Terrence Ferguson. He's a nice player. Kenyon Sadiq might feel like they don't make many dudes who are like that type of player. Yeah, I'm with you though. I mean, I just think that because the timeline is so truncated, because they're pushing all their chips in, if this can be a guy that helps take them over the top, they do have a lot more riding on this draft than a team

with their level of success and with how complete of a roster they have, you might think, at first glance. All right, we're going to take our first quick break here and then come back and talk a little New York Jets. All right, let's go from the teams that are trying to win Super Bowls to one of the other teams that has all the picks in this draft. Both of us on our initial lists had the New York Jets who have four picks in the top 44 of this draft.

Why, other than that, anything specific other than the volume of picks that pushed you to include the Jets here? Right. It's a lot of the same conversation we just had about the Dolphins, the Volunties. volume of picks is important. But with the Jets specifically, like, they're, they're different than the dolphins because the dolphins, it's a clean slate for everybody, new head coach, new quarterback, new GM, all that stuff. That's not the case with the Jets. Like Darren Mugie is obviously new there. And I think when we look at this roster and we look at the coaching regime and stuff, if we're being realistic,

it's more likely than not that this Jets team is kind of just mediocre again, at best, and potentially Aaron Glenn gets fired. Obviously, they had a ton of overturning of their coaching staff this year. And so I think with that in mind, there's a chance that the GM stays because GMs, in a lot of cases, can outlive the coaches even if they're the ones who hired them. And so I think for him with the roster being clearly in reset mode, you've shipped away some of your best young players. You have four top 50 picks. Like we're talking about top 100 picks for some of these teams. They have four top 50 picks. This is a spot where he clearly needs to make sure the roster is set up for potentially the next head coach he hires.

And obviously there's a really nice scenario where maybe all these draft picks hit. Gino Smith is an upgraded quarterback and Aaron Glenn can get this team above 500. And maybe they keep everyone and that's great. But in not that scenario, he needs to make sure that the roster is set up for success so that he can sell it, keep his job and then higher than next head coach. This is an interesting one because I don't disagree that they have a ton riding on this draft, but they have more picks in next year's draft. Like they have three first round picks in the 27 draft. And so this is a multi-year consideration for the Jets, but I'm with you for the exact same reason

where the dynamics of this on Mugie's end of it to me or what caused a lot to be riding on this draft for both him and the Jets, how many times are we in this situation where if you're a Jets fan, the future of the organization, who you're going to be, everything about where you're putting your hopes and dreams right now,

the head coach is, it's over. Like I don't think any single, single Jets fan is looking at Aaron Glenn and saying, like, this is the guy who's going to dig us out of this. I think what they're looking at is what Mugie has done over the last two years or the last year or so to kind of assemble this arsenal of picks and be like, all right, this is the plan moving forward. Like, he is clearly right now the most important figure associated with the organization. And how often does that happen with a GM and especially a GM who's never won anything? with a jam who's never won anything not very often like the fact that he's being able to wield all of these picks this way and i i do think and it's important i know they have a bunch of picks in next year's draft they have all the first round picks and stuff

i think there is a chance though like if this draft class is bad from the jump like three of these top 50 picks like cannot play he might not be the one making those three draft picks next year and so i for that reason i think it's like super important for him yeah i think that it's pretty important for him yeah i think that it's probably reasonable to assume he's got a decent amount of runway here because of the way that they've done this. Like outside of something catastrophic, he's probably going to be able to see this through over the next couple years. But you really have put a spotlight on you and what your draft record looks like when the most important, meaningful things that you've done over your entire tenure is trade away real players and just get draft picks. Like that makes the draft picks

so, so important. And even if there are more of them next year, at a certain point along the way, the draft picks are going to have to start to hit. And that includes the top, the four top 44 picks that you were talking about right now. If the Jets go five and 12 this year,

I think it's more likely that he keeps his job and Aaron Glenn loses his job. And so I think he has insulated himself in that way because of the way that they've done this. If you were Woody Johnson and the team was bad, other than like you just said, something catastrophic with this year's picks, it would be so silly to fire a guy for having a bad season after this. But it's just I can't remember a situation like this where the head coach was such a secondary

figure in like the narrative around why the team might dig themselves out of this. And by making yourself the central figure, you inherently put pressure on yourself as part of that process. Totally. Because I feel like I guess the closest you can get is like, some of those Browns runs where they had a boatload of picks over those? Very good example. Like that's probably as close as I can get. How about that for Sashi Brown.

Exactly. Exactly. Like it's not a guarantee that this thing's worse out for you because it's not even like I think getting median outcomes of draft classes and draft picks when you leverage yourself so far this way and have this many picks, it almost feels like that's not good enough, right? Like when you are so clearly like pushing everything into like we are going to. like supercharge this roster with the draft.

If you just get like middle of the row draft classes with those two, even though by volume that would be a good number of players, when you are selling the idea that like, yeah, we're going to kick ass in the draft and then it kind of falls flat a little bit. That just does not put you in a very good position. Like you kind of have to knock both of those classes out of the park. Yeah, that's the best recent example is I think the Browns.

And then the other one that I would say where it was kind of like this, the Texans felt like this. in Casario's early years, where they were kind of like, there are all these machinations going on, and they were trying to figure it out, and they were cycling between these head coaches, and like the front office moves

were almost completely divorced from the results because I think we all kind of understood what was going on there. So those to me are the two most analogous situations, but it just doesn't happen very often. Let's get to the next one here. This team is, again, in a very different circumstance than the Jets are,

but I still think has a ton riding on this, draft and their general manager specifically. We both said the Baltimore Ravens. Why the Baltimore Ravens for you as you're going through the teams that have the most at stake in this draft? Yeah, like, I mean, in similar, not really, I guess because they're both GMs, I'm saying it's similar, but like obviously Eric DeCosta and the Ravens when John Harbaugh was there, that was a very long running thing.

I mean, Harbaugh was one of the most tenured head coaches in the league for a while. And Eric DeCosta has not been the GM for the entirety of his run, but for a lot of it. and especially like the more recent what we know as like the Lamar Jackson era and stuff like that. And I think after the way that last year had gone and after some of the frustrations, one of those two guys was clearly going to go. It obviously ended up being John Harbaugh. And so now there's a lot of pressure on Eric DeCosta to kind of reinvigorate this roster in a way that proves like, hey, we can hire a head coach who can do a better job than John.

The roster was fine enough. And I'm going to make one or two improvements that get us to where we want to be, get us into the AFC championship and stuff like that. So it's, again, a lot of putting a lot of pressure on the GM because of some of the moves that he's made, obviously, by firing a very longstanding head coach. Firing a very longstanding head coach, who I believe he had a very good personal relationship with. He said openly in the press conference, he said, I think some of the things that we've done

as a front office are the reasons that John no longer has a job, like openly saying that. I think that's totally fair. And so if you keep your job while the head coach loses his, there's obviously increased pressure to make sure you're getting this right. And I would say there's even more layers to it than that. You mentioned that the Rams have a higher pick than they typically do in these drafts. The Ravens are picking 14th in this draft after missing the playoffs. So you're picking in the top half of the first round.

You add on to the fact that you weren't supposed to have that pick. It was supposed to be gone in the Crosby trade. And so it almost has even more importance now because you were supposed to trade for Max Crosby. He's no longer on the roster, even though Trey Hendrickson is. So I think that pick becoming something real and tangible becomes very important. And the other part of this is everything attached to the Crosby trade, the fact that you did probably have a role in the head coach getting fired and some of the erosion of the roster.

I think the reputation of both Eric DeCosta and the Ravens organization as a whole took some hits this spring. I don't think the Ravens right now feel quite as bulletproof as they have over the last five to 10 years in the way that we talk about. about them. And I think that only adds increased scrutiny to them making sure that they really kind of turned things around from a draft perspective compared to how they've been going over the last few years. I think that's a great way to put it. Like, I don't think anyone thinks that they're a poorly run organization now, but it's like they had they had built up such a benefit of the doubt that when a couple of things went wrong here and there, it was like, oh, they'll be fine. They're the Ravens. Or if they're operating this way, it's, ah, it's fine. They're the Ravens. All the process

makes sense. That with the way that last year fell out, obviously you changed the head coaches, some of that changes. I also think to spin it to this draft class specifically, I think there's a lot of pressure in terms of like the specific players they can pick. Like one thing that I would say is we've talked about this a little bit. When the Ravens were drafting really well from, let's just say like 09 to like 2018, 19, 20, whatever it is. A lot of the edge players they were picking were a certain archetype.

It was the 260 plus like those thick long like type of rushers. And so more recently they started to go away from that. David Ajabo's. Adafay O'A was obviously a guy who's really more speed-oriented. Mike Green last year was a little bit smaller and speed-oriented. Like they went for a different archetype than they had built this thing from. This is a draft class where it's deep at edge, period, but specifically for the guys that used to fit their archetype and do fit the archetype of a Jesse Minter defense where you want these long edge setters, Keldrick Falk could potentially be there at 14.

T.J. Parker is a first-round pick. Zion Young might be a first-round pick. These are all guys that fit the mold for what they used. used to do really well and if they want to go back to it they could do it and then i would say the other thing is the raven's actually almost on the opposite end for the entirety of time that i've been aware of the baltimore ravens they have struggled to draft size at wide receiver they've been able to find other guys in other ways like um uh hollywood browns a flowers like some of these other smaller guys but they have almost never drafted big receivers well jordan tyson tyson Boston, Chris Bell out of Louisville, Malachi Fields from Notre Dame.

Like these are all like 6-2-205 plus. Like you can find real size on the outside. So there's a lot of pressure for them to find these two things that I think would be really important for their team build moving forward. You mentioning the edges in the first round, I think that's another interesting layer to this is that the Ravens roster is in a position where I don't think you can really take. Edge is never a luxury pick. That's not what I mean. but if they took an edge rusher in the first round, right now,

after signing Trey Hendrickson and devoting that amount of resources to a guy in free agency, that room, you're drafting a guy for depth, right? Like, that's your building in contingencies to a position group

that's on the roster right now. I'm not sure the Ravens right now, based on the current state of the roster, are in a spot to be building in contingencies to anything. Like, they still need a center. They arguably need another interior offensive linemen. Like you said, they probably need a receiver still.

the corner situation is not what it's been in years past. And that's another part of this is that a lot of the time, the Ravens were in a spot where it seemed like they were often operating from a position of strength coming into these drafts, where they were never scrambling to find answers. It was all about, well, if this good player falls to us, that fine, because we're not sitting here and needing to fill a lot of needs come draft day.

And right now, I just don't think you can really say that about the Ravens roster. That's not the overall quality that we're talking about. And I think that's kind of what we're used to with this team. That is a good point. Like that's why they can get away with drafting centers and safeties and all these other guys who typically maybe wouldn't go in that range. But I think I would maybe push back a little bit on the idea that edge would be depth. Like I think whoever they draft would very clearly be their edge to, wouldn't they? Yeah, maybe.

But isn't that crazy? Like after signing Trey Hendricks into a $30 million a year deal, And I don't necessarily. Well, if they were to be believed they were going to get Cross v. and Trey Hendricksson, which is an obvious lie. That's what they were telling us. Nonsense. But after drafting Mike Green in the second round last year and paying Trey Hendricks in

$28 million a year, you still need to draft an edge rusher in the first round based on the state of that room. It's not a good place to be. I don't think you're necessarily wrong, but it's like, holy shit, really? It's not a good place to be, but quarterback edge and tackle might be the three positions where I'm like, until I know it's solved, I'm okay, throwing picks at it. So yeah, I think that part of it where it just seems like a game scrambling a little bit more than usual.

And we're going to have a conversation next week that I'm really looking forward to. And I didn't have time to do this whole exercise for the Ravens before doing this show. But we're going to do a show next week about where reputation and reality align when it comes to how we talk and think about these teams and what they get from the draft. And the Ravens are one of the teams I wanted to do this exercise for. Like when you're thinking about why you want to do something and why you want to study something, often a few teams come to mind when you're like, I want the answer for X team. And I think the Ravens are one of them. Like when we actually dig into it, are the Ravens the drafting team that we make them out to be?

I don't know the answer to that right now. That's why we're doing it. But they in particular are one of the teams I'm most curious to really dive into because I'm wondering if the results might be a tiny bit surprising to us. They really are the figurehead because I think more than any other team, we just say like, oh, whatever the ravers are doing. in the draft it's a good process and like how much of that process has actually yielded good results i don't know here's where i think the difference is and if i'm trying just off the cuff to try to pin down

where over that stretch that you said from 2009 to let's say 2018 they did a lot of uh kind of bursting their reputation it was finding guys late in the draft that that's why we would always talk about the ravens a certain way like in my opinion the best possible example of this is the 2013 draft, where they draft Matt Elam and Arthur Brown in the first two rounds. Those guys are swings and misses,

but then you get Brandon Williams in the third round, Kyle Eusecheck in the fourth round, Ricky Wagner in the fifth round, and Ryan Jensen in the sixth round. That's how it used to be. Even if they had swings and misses at the top, they were consistently finding contributors

later in drafts. The Patrick Queen and J.K. Dobbins draft, they get Namdeh Matabee in the third round, and then they get Gino Stone in the seventh round. and that just seems to be happening less and less. Like if you look back at the last four or five drafts, Isaiah likely was a fourth round pick. But other than that,

like there just aren't a lot of guys contributing for them from the fourth round and beyond. And that's not how we should judge whether a team has good or bad drafts. I think a lot of teams would fall into that category, but the Ravens specifically had become one of those teams where, and this draft is a perfect example of this, The Ravens in this draft have eight picks in the first five rounds.

They have like four fifth round picks. And it used to be a situation where if they had four fifth round picks, we would just assume one of those guys, even if it took two or three years, would become a really important piece to the Ravens pipeline that we had just kind of come to assume that existed. And now I just don't think that pipeline feels quite as strong as it did a decade ago. 100% like it gave their roster a floor that it feels like currently the Ravens roster does not have that kind of floor I'm looking back at some of these drafts the Ravens in 2020 had one two three four five six fourth round picks that's obscene that that should be illegal that that's also that's also part of this right is that it one of the reasons that they were able to sustain this for so long this is a volume game man It helps to find players in the fifth round when you have four fifth round picks in a given draft. And they do again. And maybe this is just a case of volatility in the draft, the likes of which we see all the time.

Or over time, this stuff is going to even out. But if you're Eric DeCasta, I think you're feeling a little bit more pressure right now to have this thing start evening out again after the way that this offseason went. All right. Let's stay in the ASC North. You wanted to talk about why the Cincinnati Bengals have a lot riding on this. this draft. Why the Bengals for you? This is more spun towards head coach Zach Taylor. I think there was a chance that he was maybe at least at like really on the hot seat last year because they have now

gone three straight years where they have not made the playoffs. And I know that they've always been like Taylor, the only AFC North coach to retain his employment after last season. Yes, Zach Taylor, the Zach Taylor, the longest tenured head coach in the AFC North, which is just completely insane, given how long Tomlin and Harbaugh were there. But I think there was a chance that he maybe was going get fired after last year. Obviously, they've been competitive the entire time. They've had decent stretches with backup quarterbacks, all this stuff. And I know that Joe Burrow has missed a lot of time over this period. But we're now at a point where regardless of how competitive he's been, or regardless of the circumstances, three straight missed playoffs is a lot. They've already changed

the defensive coordinator and given him a year to try to get things in place. The QB is obviously not going anywhere. That's an organization where the general manager is like kind of fake and a different consideration compared to a lot of other teams. And so to me, like, if anybody has pressure in the building, it is going to be Zach Taylor. And I think that this- Yeah, I think it's just a matter of like who you can point to if things go wrong. Yes, exactly. Like if you ask most NFL fans who the general manager is for the Cincinnati Bengals,

first of all, they'd get it wrong because Mike Brown is the general manager technically. But the guy who oversees the personnel department is Duke Tobin. I don't, I mean, the sickos to listen to this show probably know that Duke Tobin pulls the strings for the Bengals. The general NFL fan watching Red Zone on Sunday probably has absolutely no idea who Duke Tobin is, even if he knows who Howie Roseman is. Yeah, and they shouldn't. Like, let's be real. You don't need to know who the fake GM of the Cincinnati Bengals is, and that's fine. And like, and yeah, it really is just a matter of like, who is going to get the blame for this. And this isn't even to say that like, I think Zach Taylor's a bad head coach

or anything. It's just that like if this draft class, let's say they spend two of those top three picks on defenders. They'll probably spend all three, but let's just say two out of three. Let's say neither of them are good again. And the defense struggles again. And it's like maybe they missed the playoffs. They're really like losing games 40 to 38 type of team again and they go 8, 9, 9, and 8. Even if we think Zach Taylor is not necessarily the problem, at a certain point that's

going to fall on him. And so that's why I think this draft class really, really matters. I'm trying to figure out if Mike Brown is actually the general manager for the Bengals and people are going to yell at me. It's hard to find a real answer. It's entirely possible. They simply do not have someone with that title. I thought for a long time that he actually was the real general manager by title.

But, you know, Duke Tobin is the de facto general manager of the back. How much faith do you have in the combination of Boye-Mafé, Brian Cook, Jonathan Allen, the steps forward from last year's draft class and this year's draft class, which I assume will be heavily focused on defense again, being enough in year two of Al Golden to get the Bengals defense to a place where, trying to figure out how I want to frame this, they don't actively make you want to throw things at the TV.

I have a good amount of faith in the vets. I do think Boy Amafé is going to be a really nice piece for them. He'll give them a little bit in run defense. Obviously, he's like a pretty nice race car type of pass rush for them. Jonathan Allen, I think, does give them more in the middle. Like this was, even though I think their run defense up the middle was a little bit better last year and the defensive tackles were weirdly like the best part of the defense. I do still think adding a little bit more there is nice.

Brian Cook is a huge upgrade at safety. They had some of the worst safety play in the league last year. The rook the rookies and the young players is where I have my questions. I think there's a chance that some of the other young players in the secondary like DJ Turner and guys like that could look a little bit better if the front is a little bit better and they're just not, you know, getting destroyed that way. The linebackers, I'm going to be honest, I have very, very little faith that those guys are going to turn out.

And maybe they do, but I just, I would still be wanting to add to that room if I could somehow. I'm still surprised they didn't do anything in free agency and they're just rolling with those guys. Maybe they do something a little bit later. I mean, there are guys still out there, but the fact that linebacker is not one of the positions they addressed. I get, if you spend two mid-round picks on linebackers being like, we want these guys to develop into these roles.

but I just expected after the way that they played last year and how poor it was. You said the safety players was as bad as any position in the league. The linebacker play was, they had the worst linebacker play in the league last year. I think if you watched front to back what their season looked like and maybe those guys get better, but banking on that is,

I think that there's a lot of risk involved there. The next team I wanted to talk about here, a team with two first round picks, I think that will come up a lot in when we talk, in all the teams we discuss here. But to me, Dallas Cowboys have a ton riding on this year, draft. I mean, beyond the fact that they have two first round picks, now they have that third round pick back in the Osseta-Gizua trade. And so overall, they have a decent arsenal of picks.

But I think the reason that this first round pick and the additional one is so important, not only from a on-the-field football perspective, but from an overall optics perspective is this is it with the Micah trade now. I mean, if you look at it, they already traded next year's first round pick away and it the trading a fourth round pick and the two for quinn and williams like they just don't have a lot of additional draft capital waiting for them anymore it kind of all came out in the wash and so in the money i think there are two arguments for trading micha parsons one was the opportunity costs with the amount of money you'd have to pay him right and so micro parsons this is a very crude way of doing well but bear with me here has an apy of 46 million dollars

So if you just treat it as, okay, now we have $46 million to play with against the cap, even though I know that's not how it works. They've already pretty much spent all of that money. And it was really just on Kenny Clark and Rishon Gary. That's most of what the money is. There's caps off in a way. But that's the funniest part about this is. So that's why you have to take the picks and the APY into consideration. Because you can make a joke about, well, now the Packers and the.

Cowboys just changed places with the players, but you got the picks back. And so now the picks have to turn into something for that move that you made and that kind of calculus that you followed to be justified in trading Michael Parsons. And so I think that making sure you're getting the most out of these two first round picks

just as a bit of messaging coming out of the Micah trade because a couple of years from now, when we're looking back at this, if Michael Parsons is still an all pro, we're going to have Micah Parsons on one side of the graphic and we're going to have all the other shit on the other side of the graphic and this is where you have to make sure that that doesn't become a one-sided thing. You know what I do think is funny about this though and I totally agree. Like the biggest thing at stake here is like the optics of the mica trade and stuff like that. But like who is really under heat for this?

Like Jerry's not going anywhere. He's probably not going to fire Schottenheimer for this. Dax's not going anywhere. The fact that we were having this conversation already makes it a win for Jerry. It truly does. It truly does. Like it's just funny that like almost all of these are like something's at stake for someone. I guess the Rams are in a different consideration where like nobody's getting fired there either.

But it really is just like kind of an optics thing. What I will say is I do think that this is a really interesting position for them to be in where I think when you are in like a we have to get these draft picks right sort of situation, them being in a spot where they don't even have to think about offensive line. I think that is like it kind of makes these two picks like really fun to wield. Like they can really go in a lot of other directions. and not feel like they have to like invest even further into like the meat and potatoes of the roster. Like they can kind of go any way they want.

And these two picks are probably going to be defense no matter what it is. But I think them not having to feel like maybe we need a guard here or something like that. I actually do think that unlocks their draft plan a little bit. And the football part of this. And the last thing I'll say about Jerry, it is funny that like if you have no shame, optics never. There's never stakes in optics if you're a shameless person. And so like that's kind of where we are. are with Jerry and the Cowboys.

But on a purely football level here, there is a ton at stake on a football basis. Like with the current state of their defense, and we talked about the Bengals not adding anybody at linebacker, the Cowboys not doing anything at linebacker. And if you look at the overall defensive roster, like they need a couple more difference making defensive pieces. Like I think you could argue that they need one at safety. They need one at linebacker. And so this is potentially the draft to do it.

I floated this to Trevor, Trevor Seconder earlier this week. I'm curious what you think about this. do we think the Cowboys are like maybe a sneaky trade-up team in the top 10 for one of these like true difference-making defensive players now that they have that third-round pickback? I mean maybe. That kind of sounds like something they would do because like I'm trying to figure out who it would be.

Like maybe if Sunny Stiles falls a couple of picks you do it, maybe they're a team that really loves like a Ruben Bain, like something like that. If he falls a couple of picks, like I actually think that That is a good, if one of, if one of the four elite defensive players in this draft, I'm just throwing out numbers here, falls to like seven. Do you start making call? I guess seven would be Washington, so maybe not.

But like six, whatever it is, it's going to be. Like, I could totally see that. Or maybe, maybe even it's a little further than that. They want to trade up to like eight to get Caleb downs, especially when you're trying to hop ahead of teams like Cincinnati and the chief specifically who both could use a safety if they really wanted to. Like, I think that that is entirely possible. they brought back Malie Cooker in a $5 million deal.

I don't think that necessarily precludes them from doing something. It's not a player like that. PJ Locke is like purely depth. And so the Malay Cooker deal only being a one-year deal, even after adding Jalen Thompson, I think you could probably justify that. And like, I mean, like you said, like Edge is still something they could probably do even after trading for Roshan Gary.

But linebacker to me is just like the big blinking light. And I just, the idea of them dropping like a Sonny Stiles S player into that thing. And just like, I don't know. There's just something about it that speaks to me. He, sunny styles in a cowboy's uniform. That does go hard. That goes pretty hard.

And just there's so many different elements to it. Like wanting to make a splash in like the Micah Draft, the need that you have, the fact that he is kind of a rare prospect at the position, you have the picks to do it now. Like, again, I have no idea if this is their thought process heading into it. But there's just something about it that I think makes sense

the more that you kind of sit with it. And like the last thing I'll say on defense, they do like a lot of those like insane athletes. And Sonny's obviously just tested out of the park and just about everything. And so that's, you're selling me on this. I like this one. We'll see if we get there, but I like it.

I'm glad. I'm going to try to like incept everyone about this for the next month or so before we get to the draft. We're going to take one more quick break and then come back and chat about three more teams. This is another one that I hadn't thought about. But as soon as you put it in there, I was like, yep, I'm there with this. You think the Minnesota Vikings have a lot at stake in this draft.

why Minnesota? I sure do. And I think it's a similar-ish argument to what I was saying about the Bengals where the GM is now gone. Kevin O'Connell now has a veteran quarterback again. And I know the J.J. McCarthy thing obviously did not work out. But anytime O'Connell has had a veteran, it has kind of worked out. And so obviously he's got what he wants there. And I think in terms of if we're trying to think of like, who are we pointing the finger at if things go wrong? I know Kyler Murray is a high profile player. You're paying him a million bucks. If things go wrong, I think the blame is probably going to fall more on Kevin O'Connell. And then I think if we think about even the rest of the coaching staff,

like Brian Flores has earned a lot of like a benefit of the doubt from a lot of people. Like I think people think that he is clearly overqualified for his position. I think that he is. Like he's one of the best defensive play callers in the league. And so I think even if the defense takes a little bit of a step back because obviously they had a bunch of moving pieces there, I think a lot of people believe that he is a great coach. And so if the roster falls off, or if the team falls off again, they don't get to where they want. I do think that there's a lot of pressure on Kevin O'Connell.

And then I would also say, the other thing with the Vikings, they just cut a number of veterans. They're kind of in cap hell. And they don't have that many young, like, upcoming second contract players that I think that you would want to pay. Maybe Jordan Addison. They didn't find anybody in the draft for four years. Exactly. Exactly. Like you've got the last really, really good one is like Jordan Addison.

But there were trades this, there were talks this off season that maybe they would trade him. And again, maybe that's a money consideration. But still. It's a money consideration and also an awful. The field choices consideration. Exactly, which like, and that matters for stuff like this. If we're trying to talk about like, who do we want to pay that amount of money to on second contracts? You've got maybe Dallas Turner, who I think took a step last year, but I still think it's probably realistically like at best and edge too. Like this is not like a superstar that we've hit.

And then Donovan Jackson, I'll leave like TBD, obviously only a one year player. So you just don't have that many like second year. That guy's a consistent pro bowler. We're about to pay for you on your roster right now. Yeah. I think this is really. good. I think the veteran quarterback part of it matters here because Kevin O'Connell has done a very good job with Kirk

Cousins, with Sam Darnold. I've said this before and I think the volume on this will get turned up a little bit more if this team is middling again offensively. Go look up where the Vikings finished in like offensive DVOA or EPA per play

in the year where they had Sam Donald and the last year where they had Kirk Cousins. It's not as high as you think. It's not as high as you'd think. They're finishing like outside of the top 12 in a lot of these metrics. And it's fine, right? And you can make an argument that, well, they're doing it with Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins, but like Sam Darnold just won the Super Bowl. I guess Sam Donald isn't some like tarnished asset anymore where you're the only one who can get this out of him. And so them going back to Kauri, this idea and Kevin O'Connell saying,

organizations fail young quarterbacks more than young quarterbacks fail. There's obviously going to be examples where the quarterback is not salvageable and there's nothing you can do. And maybe Jay James McCarthy is that guy. But we've seen Kyle Murray at least be a capable quarterback in the NFL. And so if you can't lift up Kyler Murray, then this reputation that you've really started to get as a guy who lifts up all these quarterbacks, I think starts to take a little bit of a hit. And so I do think that there is a ton riding on a ton riding on this year. for him. And I think making sure you're coming out of this draft with enough pieces to really kind of help that process and accelerate what you can be this season, I think is a really important consideration.

Right. Because if he just makes Kylo Murray look good, but the draft picks don't hit, it's like, okay, we've saved ourselves for a year, but the roster's not set up for us to like actually sustain this thing. If you get both, then it's like, okay, I've secured my position as head coach and clearly proven I can do this with vets. Oh, and also we have two like young rookie pro bowlers. Like that, that could really do a lot for changing how they can sustain this moving forward, I think. And even, I mean, I think that for some people, it might sound silly to put the quality of a draft on a head coach. And I still think it probably is. But I think them firing the GM, like, it seems like Kevin O'Connell has consolidated a lot of power in that building and how this all went.

And so when that happens, I think there does become a little bit more scrutiny in what the wins and losses look like here moving forward. And I think that's exactly what's going to happen. two more here that we wanted to hit. I think both of us had this one. The Kansas City Chiefs absolutely are one of the teams with the most at stake in the 2026 draft. They have three picks in the top 40. They have four picks in the top 75.

Do you know when the last top 10 pick, the chiefs, the last time the Chiefs made a top 10 pick that was their pick? Do you know one that was? It's the Eric Fisher draft. 13. So it's been 13 years since the Chiefs picked in the top 10 with a pick. originally owned. Obviously, they traded up to draft Patrick Mahomes. They've only drafted in the top 20 with their own pick one other time in that range. And it was 2015 when they drafted

Marcus Peters. That's the only other top 20 pick they've had since. Because they make the playoffs every year. Even when it was Alex Smith before Patrick Mahomes, they were making the playoffs every damn year. So now they have the ninth overall pick, right? Is it nine? It's nine. They have a ninth overall pick. Then again, they have four picks in the top 75. That's the thing is it's not just the fact that you're picking ninth, it's that you're picking at the top of the second round. Like you are just, you're in a position in this draft that you were just very rarely in. And we've talked about this a lot when it comes to positionally, how should you maybe be thinking about this because you are in a rare spot.

Like you are in a position as the chiefs to find a pass rusher that you might not be able to find, maybe a receiver that you might not be able to find an offensive tackle that you might not be able to find. And so the top 10 pick becomes hugely important. And now you have that after first round. pick. And you know, with some teams, you have, you can like try to build an argument and an example of how having that extra first round pick might accelerate or might help you as you hit like a mini reset. With the chiefs, there's nothing amorphous about it. Like we, we have a very

real tangible example of them doing this. Like, the hope is that you just do the same thing this year that you did in 2022, the year you drafted Trent McDuffie. And so that in those two first, first round picks to hopefully go through the exact same process. We don't really have to use much imagination to picture how this can work out well for Kansas City. Totally. And like I know that we've said, I think maybe on our last show when we were talking about Simmons and the offensive line, I know that we said, you know, you don't always want to be

living in this range where you're having to draft a tackle who had like some knee issues coming out or you're having to draft a corner like Trent McDuffie, who's a little bit smaller and hoping that he can work out the way that he obviously did. You don't always want to be doing that. But their track record back there is like fine. obviously they've got some misses where like FAU did not turn out very well for them. And they've got some misses in that range. But obviously like Clyde Edwards-Hillair didn't work out.

But like they've got a couple of hits there. And so if they can maybe get lucky in one of those guys, turns out the way that they've hit a couple of times. And then that top 10, let's say that ninth pick is like Caleb Downs or something like that. Or it's one of the tackles that they really like a kaffano or whoever it's going to be. That goes a really, really long way for like instantly giving this roster juice in a way that. that they have not had for a very, very long time. Yeah. I mean, it's a hugely important season

because you're picking in the top 10 because you have that extra first round pick. This becomes the most important chiefs draft. I mean, probably of the Andy Reid era, right? I mean, I think that obviously the Mahomes draft, we didn't know going in that it was. Right. Looking back, it's obviously the most important.

In retrospect, it's really important. But in the lead up to the draft, in the way that we're talking about the draft, this becomes the most important chiefs draft in a very long time. They've had two first-up picks before, but one of them wasn't in top 10. You could maybe argue that like when they traded away Tyree Kill, like, and obviously going to that new era, maybe that's one. But like they were still at the height of their like, like they were still winning and going to Super Bowls. Like that's a much different consideration than where we're at now with them.

Again, those picks were 21 and 30, you know, it's like they weren't picking in the top 10. They had four picks in the first two rounds, but they have four picks in the top 75 this year. And so I think that it's a similar consideration. And because they're coming off of a down year and because that first pick of theirs is so high and such a rare opportunity, I do think you can make a solid argument. There's more riding on this draft than there was on the 2022 draft. The last one I wanted to throw out, we don't spend a ton of time on this, but I do think you can make a real argument that they're in this conversation is the Bears. There is a serious because any time, this is the case because any time we do, oh, this team's ahead of sketch. schedule. The way those teams end up not on schedule is they mess up the draft immediately after

that. That's how you get off schedule. That's exactly right. I think so many times we have these teams that jump out and are better than we thought, quicker than we thought, and then they get out over their skis a little bit and do things they might not have otherwise. The Bears didn't do that. You know, they did not do that this off season. They actually scaled back a little bit. But I think in order to make sure you don't suffer the same fate as some of those teams, you have to continue to draft well and that part of it even aside they have three top 60 picks in this draft three top 60 picks and they have needs with those picks like they need a safety right now they need another front piece right now and then the dolman part of this now needing to solve

center moving forward in a way that you didn't a month ago like i just feel like there is after the dj more trade if let's if dj more had been they got a fifth for dj more or a fourth for DJ more. I think there's maybe a little bit less pressure to get this thing right. But now the fact that you have those three top 60 picks and you probably need to find a long-term answer at center, there's just a lot more riding on them in this draft

than we ever could have predicted in like November. Like imagine them being on this list in November. You'd be like, oh, f*** it. Like they're playing with house money. There's not a lot riding on this draft. And now because of how kind of everything is unfolded, it really does feel like there's a lot at stake. for them next month. Totally. And it feels funny too because like, I think usually when we do this

with teams like, oh, they need to hit on the draft. It's like, oh, they just don't have a lot of good young players. The quarterback's a good young player. They've got two quality young receivers. Like, Colston Loveland is young. They just hit on a backup running back last year who was good. They have. But those are all like just your offensive skill players. Like they need they need more. I think like, again, you talk about they need a new center. They could probably use, they still need to find a left tackle. Like, I know Trappillo played well, but they're not confident that he's, who knows how he's going to be after the injury and who knows if he's even like a true long-term starting tackle there. And then like on defense, they've got a couple of youngish players,

but it's not nearly the same core that they have like on offense. And like they need to hit a couple of picks on that side of the ball. And I think the other part of this is that if you're a team that maybe was better than people expected and you do try to microwave things a little bit, often that involves trading away draft picks and involves being really aggressive in free agency. And so then the draft picks become a little bit minimized, one, because you have fewer of them and two, because you might have fewer holes coming into the season at first glance, but because they didn't do that and now the improvements have to come via the draft, the draft becomes even more important than it would be otherwise.

I do think, too, this is going to be a great experiment of sorts after we are just coming off the heels of like what Houston did and then what Washington did with like, oh, we got the young quarterback immediately like let's microwave it. And like obviously Houston's still a pretty good roster in a lot of ways. But like Washington fell apart last year. And I still look at their roster. I'm like, I don't know if they're going to be good again because of the way that they microwave some things. Whereas like you mentioned, the bears, even with some disaster hitting them like with Dalman retiring, they didn't really like freak out and go do a bunch of moves. They were just like, these are kind of the smart team building things that we're going to go about it. We're

going to go about it slow we trust our core we trust our coach and hopefully you hit a few of those picks to keep it going yeah and if you want to overcome some of the regress like the regression concerns and you want to stave off some of the issues that have pulled teams back down into the muck after a season like this drafting well is how you would do that all right that is all we've got for today we'll be back tomorrow chatting a little bit more about the specific prospects in this draft, a lot of outwires in this draft for a bunch of different reasons. Size, age, production. So we're going to talk about a lot of those players tomorrow and what we make of those

outwire characteristics. Which ones are truly worrisome? Which ones can we look past? We'll probably talk about, I don't know, what there can, a dozen players tomorrow that fit that mold in some way or another? Yeah, I think so. And it's a lot of edge players. I'll give that as a sneak peek.

All right, that's all we got. See you guys tomorrow. Appreciate you listening. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that. or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating.

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