The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Who's the 6th-best QB in the NFL?

Episode Date: July 16, 2025

Everyone—literally everyone—people would place Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow among the top-five quarterbacks in the NFL. An overwhelming majority would round out that list with Justin Herbert. Ask 10 people who the sixth-best QB is, though, and you could get 10 different answers. Robert Mays, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman try to pin who that sixth-best QB is on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Hosts: Robert Mays and Derrik KlassenWith: Dave HelmanExecutive Producer: Michael BellerProducer: Michael BellerSubscribe to The Athletic Football Show...⁠Apple⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠YouTube⁠Follow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Dave on Bluesky: @davehelman.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassFollow Dave on X: @davehelman_Theme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. We had a fun one on tap for you guys today. We had a little bit of news at the top of the show today. A couple of contract extensions that we wanted to hit, Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner, Trey Smith, some young guys cashing in. We chatted about that with me, Derek Classen, and our buddy, David Helman. But the meat of the show today is a discussion that is adjacent to a lot of the conversations

that have been going on in the football media sphere over the last few weeks. It's list time for everybody. as they try to feed the content beast, we're not doing a quarterback ranking or a quarterback draft this year for a lot of different reasons. I think the discussion is kind of wrote in a lot of ways right now.

We've had the discussion about a lot of the top guys in a similar way consistently over the last few off seasons. I didn't want to do that. I didn't want to spend all this time hemming and hauling between who's better between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen

because I think for the most part, those top four guys at the top, they're the top four guys at the top. I think that Justin Herbert, in my opinion probably deserves to be number five. You can disagree with that, but a lot of those lists have had that ranking in some order. So instead of spending an hour talking about who the best four to five quarterbacks in the league are,

we're going to spend 90 minutes talking about who the sixth best quarterback in the league is. And the reason that I feel like this is worth it is that this group from like six to 15, 16, 10 guys or so is fascinating. And you can make real cases for five to six of them. I think that you could hint at cases for another few of them. them. So that's what we did today. We talked about what the second and third tier of quarterbacks in the NFL look like. Who deserves a case made for them? Who do you have to squint a little bit more with? And who will we be having this discussion about in a slightly different way a year from now?

So let's get to that discussion with me, Derek Classen and David Hellman right now. All right. It is list season in the NFL content world. And we are not going to do a list today. we're going to do a variation of a quarterback list today. Derek, you and I were talking about this as we were figuring out how we wanted to do this show. And if you look at all these quarterback lists, the first four, I think we can all agree in some order is the first four. Right, David? The fact that Joe Burroughs definitively in there now, I think you have to feel pretty good about it. Well, first of all, yes, like him specifically.

It's nice to just cut that out and we can, I like the idea of starting later on because we spend so much time worrying about that. And it's nice to just gloss over it. Yeah, like we can start, I guess, at five. So the reason we're not starting at five, it's a couple different things. If you look at a good majority of these lists, Justin Herbert is five or six on most of them. And I agree with that. So I do think that we could have a Justin Herbert discussion. Part of the reason I don't want to is that I'm kind of tired of the Justin Herbert discussion.

Like, I just don't. You don't want to hop on the merry-go around one more time? I really, I really don't. I think after the season that he had last year and after, what the first five years of his career has looked like. I feel pretty good about saying, even if Justin Herbert is not a member of that top four in the way that some of us tried to make him a little bit too quickly,

I feel pretty good that he's the next quarterback in line after those top four. I'm sure there are people listening who disagree with that. My response to that right now is I don't really care. I also don't care. And there's nothing really new for me to say about the way that I feel. That's exactly how I feel. Like if anything last year,

I felt like he took his game to a slightly different level, because we talked about this during the season. Jim Harbaugh made him be a little bit more unhinged than I think he probably ever has been. And he's never going to be Josh Allen, whoever it is. But he did start to unlock himself a little bit. It's just I think a lot of that got washed away for some people with the playoff game. But like in that game, Justin Herbert's tackles were, they looked horrible.

The offense imploded. Yeah, they looked like the worst offense in the league outside of the quarterback. And so obviously he throws four picks. It looks like it's on him. but like given the state of the game, given you are up against that defense and you have to go put up points, the fact that he was at least trying to make something happen almost made me respect the performance more. I don't have the stats in front of me. We don't have to relitigate them here. The quick pressure rate, how under siege he was from the moment that game started, I just, I feel the exact same way you do.

I don't have really anything new to say about Justin Herbert. I thought that he was probably the fifth best quarterback in the league going into last year. And I think that he had his best season last year. I do love the dichotomy there. And I guess what I was trying to say about the top four, is like, I am bored by people's opinions on how that shakes out. We all know. We all know that they're in a category unto themselves. Herbert is the same way, just depending on how you feel about him. But like, yeah, like nothing has changed. The talent stays the same.

The counting stats stay the same. There is a subsect of people that clearly need to see more from him in the chips or down moments. And that's totally fine. But we've been doing that since 2020. two, maybe even before that. And so I don't think I agree that he is definitively number five, but I'm perfectly comfortable just leaving him where he is. I don't need to get into the pluses and minuses of Justin Herbert's career. That to me is not, it's no longer an interesting conversation

because I have nothing new to say about it. And I want to see how we'll talk about him at the end of this year. I think that we probably should be moving toward a direction where he is the next guy after those four. And that's just, let's put that to bed because I don't want to talk about it anymore. The reason we want to start at six is not just because it feels like the top four and to a degree the top five is settled. It's that I think you could make an argument for so many different guys in this next tier. And that's kind of what pushed us to do it in this format. If you look at quarterbacks like six through 16, I think you could make a reasonable case for a huge chunk of those guys as the six best quarterback in the league. I think there's some guys who are mainstays that we'll get to

Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford that have kind of been in that range for a long time. There are a ton of young guys, whether they're after one year, after two years that I think you could probably make a case for. So this was not just a way to figure out the answer to the initial question about who the ex-best quarterback is. It was a way to examine the fact that that next group of guys is very crowded, Derek, and very muddled in a way that I think we find compelling. I think it's a very interesting group because I think because so many,

many of them are young. And we'll talk about this with a number of different individual quarterbacks. But I think because so many of them are young, we have a tendency to rank them higher than maybe they deserve because we think that they're going to get there at some point. And so we get bored of some of the older veterans who are in this group, whether it's like, you know, we'll talk about all these guys. It's, I'm not spoiling anything. The Jared Goffs, the Matthew Staffords, the Dak Prescott's.

Like those guys, I think there's a level of we get bored of just ranking them here without them specifically guys like Dak Prescott and Jared Goff, not having. any hardware to show for it. We just get bored of saying they're the seventh best quarterback, but maybe realistically it just are. But then you get excited about the CJ Strouds and the Jaden Daniels. And it's like, I don't know. It's kind of an eye of the beholder thing.

The other thing that I think is really fun, I don't want to speak for y'all. But I think you can probably relate to this, whether you're on a podcast or out at dinner, out at the bar with your friends or people stop you and they want to talk about it. Don't you find yourself often saying, yeah, I mean, I think he could be 16. to eight on his day.

And if it's not his day, then he's like 12 to 14. And I feel that way about basically everybody that we're going to talk about right now, which is, it's very frustrating because it changes from week to week and month to month. But it's also very fun because it just means we have a lot of guys we can compare and a lot of guys playing at similar levels. This is basically the range of quarterbacks where it's like, I think you can win a Super Bowl with this guy,

but you're not the elite guys. And there are maybe like one or two other quarterbacks that could fall into that that I'm not going to bring up here. But like that's basically the range. range that we're talking about. Yeah, and I think that there was a moment, I've talked about this a bunch of different times, but it was a conversation I was having with a coach in the NFL about the most valuable types of quarterbacks and the fact that a rookie quarterback, it's a blue chip player, like maybe

Jane Daniels is becoming, is the most valuable thing that you can have. A blue chip quarterback on a veteran extension is the next most valuable thing. And then the next category that he mentioned, and it was talking about Matthew Stafford, winning the Super Bowl for the Rams in 2021, was a red quarterback who can have blue moments. and I think there's a lot of those guys here where they're not the hyper-elite players week in and week out, but in the right stretches, they're not being carried to playoff wins.

They can have moments where they're driving your success. And I think there's a decent amount of those guys here. They just don't do it with quite as much consistency or quite as much fervor as the guys in the top of the list do. So can I put specifically Toyotathon Jordan Love? As my answer. And then we can have two separate Jordan Loves that we're talking about here.

All right, we are going to dig into the pool of guys that we can nominate for this, who you're making full-throated arguments for, who you're making half-hearted arguments for. Before we dig into this, though, it's been a pretty busy day news-wise in the NFL, and I think we should talk about some of this stuff. The Jets and Darren Mugie and Aaron, I think it's Mugi. Is it Mugi? I believe so. Mugi, Mugi's great.

That's a great last name for a GM. Darren Mugie throwing on a lot of cash early on in his tenure as the Jets. head coach or the Jets general manager. Two deals signed in the last few days. Garrett Wilson, four years, $130 million, $90 million guaranteed. That one happened a couple days ago. He is now fifth in AAV among receivers, fourth in total guarantees. Sauce Gardner, about an hour ago before we started recording this,

signs the richest cornerback deal in NFL history. Four years, 120.4 million, 85.4 million, I think, in practical guarantees. that puts him first in AAV, first in guarantees at the position. Write a big old thank you checks and a little edible arrangement to Derek Stingley's agent for this one. Derek, you see both of those deals for the Jets. Your first reaction to those contracts is what? My immediate reaction to the Sauce Gardner contract was Pat Sertan is like way underpaid. Like his contract is criminal.

He's only making like $24 million a year with fewer guarantees and sauce gardeners. And that's not even for me to say that like sauce Gardner hasn't earned this contract. obviously last year. You know, I think some people are doing the thing where like, okay, last year was a little bit of a down year for him. And I think that that is true. But also the Jets pass rush was significantly worse than it was in 2023. And also like that entire defense pretty much fell apart. Like I think you can say like Quinny Williams and Quincy Williams continue to play at a high level.

But I think outside of those two, a lot of the guys on that defense just didn't really play to the level that I think we can play at. So I expect with Aaron Glenn coming into the building, sauce is going to play really well again. What do you think about him playing a ton more man? Do you think he's capable of playing that kind of style the entire season? I'm just curious your thoughts on this. As an Aaron Glenn believer, I'm wondering how you feel like Soss Gardner fits into the Aaron Glenn model of defense. I think he's capable, but when I think a lot of the best man corners or at least my favorite

man corners, it's usually the guys who are a little bit bigger and stronger. The Christian Gonzalez's, the Carlton Davis's, even Charverius Ward, I think is a little bit bigger and stronger. But I don't think you necessarily have to be that. I think of a guy like Denzel Ward. He's a little bit skinnier. He's a little bit lighter. Not really a strong impress coverage.

Just like knocking people around into the sideline. I think sauce can be like that style of really high level man coverage corner. So we haven't seen a ton of it because that's not even really what he did a lot in college. But I have enough faith that with as well as Glenn teaches the position, I think it's going to be fine. He's 24 years old, David. One down year in a volatile position, I have absolutely no issue with this. To me, the more interesting thing is the Jets kind of planting their flag with these guys very early in a new. regime. That's my first thought is, and you don't, you don't hand out deals like this just to look smart,

right? Like, just to justify this. It's because they're really good players. And you look back, I think it's, you send, do deals like this to send a message in my opinion? Absolutely. Like, they have lived up to it. That's my point is like, you're not, you're not signing contracts like this just because you drafted them highly. To get it done early, too, they've been productive, they've been productive on bad teams. And here's the funny thing that I thought about. This is anecdotal. But like, a lot of times when a team has three first round picks and they, you know, they're holding the jerseys and everybody's like, this is a franchise changing draft. Like, a lot of times it doesn't age as well as you would prefer.

The Evan Neil Kvon-Tibon-Tibito draft. Exactly. It doesn't always age that well. But that 2022 draft, Sauce, Garrett Wilson, I know Jermaine Johnson got hurt, but he looked like a useful dissenting player. He's an ascending player. It's crazy because we know that the Jets, they have this well-earned reputation for being a disaster. There's more to be upset about than not. But you look back through this. 2022, you got those three. You found

Brees Hall as well. Will McDonald had a breakout season last year. We'll see about Olu Fashanu. Like if Olu Fashanu and Membo, the first round pick from this year, if they're good players, you have like foundational pieces at all of the

important positions except for quarterback. And that's a separate issue. But I'm sitting here looking like, man, the Jets history in the draft here over the last few years is a lot better than you would guess based on the recent results. When we were talking about the quality of these jobs at the end of last season going into the hiring cycle, I think the only real downside to the Jets job from a team builder's standpoint was just the owner. Other than that, like, you're going to have financial flexibility moving forward. This year, obviously they're mired in a little bit of the dead money with Rogers and Adams and things like that. But you're going to have some financial flexibility. You're hopefully going to be on a rookie quarterback timeline sooner or at.

than later if you try to find one next year. And you do have some foundational pieces. Remember last year, the Patriots did this. They threw a ton of money around on all these young guys. And I think the refrain there was, are we sure you want to be paying the core pieces of a bad team? I don't feel that way about what the Jets are doing. These are like legitimately very good cornerstone pieces.

There's no downside to signing them early. If you have eyeballs, you don't have to do a lot of advanced study to know that Garrett Wilson and Soss Gardner are balling. And they've been, and again, they've had their moments, particularly the Jets defense has been really spicy here during Soss's career. But they've had, they've been good players on bad football teams. Like Garrett Wilson in particular, like going through a season where Rogers only played three snaps, he's been productive throughout all of it. I think it's awesome. I think that team is better than their record was last year.

Like that to me just felt like a team that just fell apart at the seams, whether you want to blame that on the Rogers thing or obviously firing Robert Sol after. three, four weeks and the defense maybe not holding their level. Whatever you want to blame it on, it just felt like a pretty good, like, playoff caliber roster just fell apart for a number of reasons. And so that's not even to say that this year, they'll immediately get back to the playoffs. Obviously, their quarterback situation is up in the air

and they're going to run a pretty weird offense, you would imagine. But I do think that roster is better than, like, a team that was picking, what did they pick sixth or seventh in this year's draft? Like, they're probably a better team than that. Especially when you consider, like, the two or three-year outlook for what that group looks like. looking at the Garrett Wilson contract before we move on to the next one here, if you look at the A.AV, like the percentage of the cap, he's actually ninth among receivers and he comes in just behind a group at six that includes Brandon I, you can Amman Rae St. Brown. So essentially it's

that type of contract. And I think that makes sense for Garrett Wilson, right? We're paying you like the second tier number one receiver market, which that's exactly where the Amon Rae, St. Brown, Brandon I, you contracts sit. I think Garrett Wilson at his age probably deserves to be compensated in that range of guys. That is the exact range of guys at this stage where it's like you can be the number one of a very good offense. We can run the offense through you, but you're just not the guy we're probably going to vote for in all pros every year. And that's fine. That's like incredibly great player to have. It's just those other guys get paid a few more million dollars a year. Sticking with the wide receiver market, there's a guy who is not quite as happy as Garrett Wilson is

right now. He resides in Washington. Terry McClearn, talk to reporters today. He is not happy with the lack of movement on his contract scenario. He said, I just want clarity. If they don't feel like I'm part of their future, just tell me that. He did not commit to being at training camp when it opens, but it kind of seems like we're headed in that direction. We're talking about this a little bit earlier today. And I can understand this from both sides.

If you look at the wide receiver market right now and you look at what other guys are getting paid, that again, I think fall in a similar range of players as Terry McLaren, D.K. Metcalf is at 11.82% of the cap right. above all of those guys. DK.K. McCaff is making like $33 million a year. If I'm Terry McCorn and I look at what I've been in my career with awful quarterback play, what I was last year with decent quarterback play for the first time. And I'm looking at what D.K. Metcalf got paid. I think I deserve that. I am right in line with that in that tier of receivers. I deserve to be paid $33 a year. But we were also discussing that if you look at the list of the highest paid receivers in

the league. Among the top 15 guys in AAV, only one of them was older than 27 when he got that contract. And that guy was Tyree Kill. Terry McClureen is 29 years old. He is going to be 30 this year. Is that right? Yeah, he turns 30 in like week two of the season. So he's going to be 30 this year. So you would be paying him for his ages 30, 31, 32 seasons. So I kind of get that from Washington's perspective. Tara McCloran thinks he deserves to get paid like D.K. McCaff. Washington is probably looking at the contract's been handed out a receiver. The other guy to get paid more than $23 million a year at age 29 or higher is Calvin Ridley. He got $23 million a year. So that's probably where the sticking point is. It's not just the quality of player we're talking about

with Terry McClure. It's the fact that he's a little bit older than all of the other guys who have been paid in this range. I don't see Washington's side of this, to be honest with you. Like everything you just said makes sense. But what is really the downside for the Washington commanders of paying Terry McCle? Oh, the cliff comes for third contract players when they hit their 30s. And so what if it does?

Like how many years are they away from needing to pay Jaden Daniels, at least two? And so if you... Yeah, and it's really like five. Exactly. Those count numbers are still going to be low. It's two years until you can even do the deal. And then probably four to five before it's a cripple. problem. Why are we worried about what Terry McLaurin might cost you in dead money five years from now?

You could be done with the deal by the time Jaden Daniels numbers are a big deal. Like it's yes, of course, there's always risk to signing a new extension, especially for an older player, especially a wide receiver. But this is a young team with a cheap quarterback with clearly an opportunity to win right here. You want to, you want to see where I'm coming from. Go look at Washington's depth chart if Terry McCloran's not on it. It's terrifying. That's the point I'd be making if I were Terry McCloran right now. So do you want to follow up all of the hope and potential of a run to the NFC championship game? Or are you that afraid of what might happen in three years that it's going to stop you from getting this done? When they've already committed to these next two years, like they've already thrown so much money and so many draft picks and so many of these moves that are clearly they want to win in these next two years.

So like keep Terry McLaren around. I want to be clear about this. I'm siding with Terry McClure. I think I'm just trying to figure out where the sticking points might be because at first glance, they're hard for me to understand. I'm 100% with you guys. I also think that sometimes it's worth just rewarding a guy who's had to like give the Andy Dufrain crawling through six miles of shit.

And that's exactly what Terry McClure has had to do. How does it go over in your locker room if a guy who produced through all of those years is getting the shaft now that things finally look good? And now you're bringing all these other veterans that you're paying a lot of money. And so the guy that has been the in-house guy who's been a good soldier for a long time, he's going to be the one that's not rewarded as you're paying Laramie Tunsell, Debo Samuel, Marcia and Latimore, all these guys.

And that's where I think it gets fascinating, though, is that the Tunsell move, the Latimore trade, the Debo trade, those are all moves that this front office made. Debo Samuel was not, or Terry McLaren was not a draft pick from that front office. Debo Samuel was more of a direct from this front office because Adam Peters was in San Francisco. So maybe that goes to the point. It's like, Terry McLaren is just like, even though he's obviously a very good player, just not this front office's, you know, quote guy, which is like a dumb sticking point. Because I generally agree, like, you should thank a guy with a contract when he's stuck with you

for five, six years, been one of your best players, especially on offense for such a long time. And really outside of 40-year-old Zach Ertz, that's a little bit mean, but outside of that, that's like, that's barely a stretch. Like, this was clearly the only player, Jaden Daniels had a very good and clear connection with last year. Why would you not want to do whatever you can to keep those two happy for the next handful of years? And just keep those too happy when you're trying to like really accomplish something this year. You have real like championship aspirations this year. I think trying to make sure whatever vibes you're creating are as good as possible heading into the year,

that's not the most important consideration, but it should be one of them. If they, if they, and we got a lot of time, right? I mean, training camps don't really get going for a couple more weeks for most teams and obviously it goes all the way through August. But if they let this fester to the point that like he doesn't show for camp and he's missing lots of practices, it is such a bummer of a return to the old way where like, you know, we're not Daniel Snyder. We're everything that the old regime is not. DC football is exciting again.

And not to say that they'll do everything the wrong way, the way that used to be. But like it's people are trying to turn that page and like we're a real organization that We can count on them to do the right things. And this is just kind of like, we're bummed out and frustrated at the start of training camp when we should be one of the most exciting teams in the NFL. I think that's a good thing to point out. People want to be excited about this.

And it's hard to get there when you're dealing with stuff like this. Last one here, Trace Smith, guard from the Cincinnati, from the Kansas City Chiefs sent a four-year, $94 million deal with 70 million in guarantees. That is the highest paid guard contract in NFL history. Not surprising.

You franchise tag a guy, and especially at that, at an interior offensive line position when the tag number includes tackles as part of that overall number, it's probably going to come out on the other side with a monster deal. This kind of seemed like where things were trending from the moment they decided to tag him. I think from the moment they decided to tag him and move on from Joe Tuny. It was like, okay, they are very obviously going to pay Tray Smith, whatever it is that he wants. And so I get it.

You know, it's kind of funny because I think on one hand, I think you want to do whatever you can to keep the interior of the offense offensive line intact because over the last handful of years that's been kind of the going thing that's really helped them. At the same time, it was really tackles that held them back last year. And so obviously they did a really good job going

and drafting Josh Simmons, so I think can help them at tackle. So I like all the investments they've made at guard or at offensive line in general. It's a lot of money for Tray Smith, but at a certain point, it's like he's one of the best young guards in the league and you're not going to get a better one on the free agent market.

So why would you let him go? Yeah, and I think that they knew that. Tagging any one player and having him play on the tag for a given year is not good business. It's not good business, especially when you're up against it cap-wise, like the chiefs are. They're paying a lot of guys. They don't have a ton of money to throw around. So I think they're trying to make sure you're lowing that number when you probably want this guy around long-term. It's probably the right way to handle this.

I think you'd probably in a vacuum rather have elite tackles than elite interior players. But once you have them, it's like, this is the hand that you were dealt. and having two of the best interior players in the league locked up for the long term is not a bad thing. And they invested at left tackle in multiple ways this offseason. I think they're in a great spot. Trey Smith is a full seven years younger than Joe Tune. That's why they did this. So as much as, you know, I love Joe Tuni.

Like just as a football fan, it bummed me out to see him leave Kansas City. But this is the smart business play. I think it makes perfect sense. Make a strength of strength. This is always what they've had to do is they've had to offset the big climbing contracts they had with cheaper rookie contracts. And so now, Creed Humphrey and Trace Smith are two of the expensive guys. And the left guard and the left tackle will be the guys on rookie.

Obviously, Jaylon Moore is there, but starting next year, they'll have those cheap guys at those two spots. All right, we're going to take a quick break. And then we're going to get back and try to answer who the sixth best quarterback in the league happens to be. All right. Let's dig into this. Derek, I'm going to let, I'm going to let you start here.

The way that we're going to do this is I'm going to kind of ask you, if you have an answer that you feel good about. But as an offshoot of that, we're also going to talk about the players that we think are worth mentioning, honorable mentions, the guys that you think have a strong case. So if I asked you, who is the sixth best quarterback in the NFL? How would you go about answering that question? You want me to just reveal the answer? Sure. I do have one. I still think it's Matthew Stafford. And it kind of goes back to what you were talking about a little bit at the top of the show is that I think after the top four guys and then obviously Justin Herbert is kind of like in his own like mini tier. It really does get into guys who are,

I think, not as consistently elite as the top four guys. So it's like who has the best stretches that can compete with those guys? And I just think we've seen it the most from Matthew Stafford. And so obviously there's a little bit of volatility in the offense last year, but I still feel like his best ball is as good as anyone in the league. How did you respond to that? I do not think he is the six best quarterback in the league because I think he is the fifth best quarterback in the week. That's just me. And for me, he just, he checks the most boxes. Like, if you're putting together the argument, like the stats speak for themselves, right? I mean, he's been playing a lot longer than a lot of these guys. He's got incredible stats. You realize he could, and Aaron Rogers is

in front of him, so that complicates this. But like, he could, if he went nuclear, the way that he's done in the past, he could climb as high as, like, fifth all time in passing yard. in NFL history this year. He could get up near Ben Rafflesberger if he has the right kind of season. He could do it this year? If he threw for like 4,000 plus yards, which he hasn't been doing recently. But if he were to revert to that form, he could do it. If he has a normal last season like we've kind of been seeing, he could, he'll be, he's

already 10th. He could be, he could pass Matt Ryan. He could be like 8th. His numbers are fantastic. He's gotten the Rams to the playoffs three out of the last four years. He's been nails in the playoffs for his entire career, by the way, especially since he left Detroit. He has the Super Bowl run,

even if you don't put everything on postseason wins, and that's fine, but he still has that. We know he can do it. We know he can turn it on. He's been so much fun to watch in these two post seasons since the awful 2022 season. We all remember the snow game against the Eagles last year,

but even in 2023, when he went to Detroit, I mean, he put it all on. It was an incredible game. He put it all on the line in that game. So he delivers in those moments. He has won a championship for a franchise. He has more than lived up to being a number one overall pick. The numbers are impeccable.

And then just the stuff that you see every week when you watch football, the throws he's willing to make, the throws he makes on a routine basis, I just think if you're looking for somebody that checks every box and you're like, yeah, he can throw for that many yards, but he hasn't won these big games. Or yeah, he's done stuff in the playoffs, but where are the numbers? where's the raw statistical data. He has all of that. So for that reason, it almost feels like a cop out because, again, he's, he's, what, 36 years old?

He's got such a bigger body of work. But for all of those reasons, I think he checks every box and I would even have him as high as fifth. Okay. If I had to pick a guy outside of the top five guys to win me a football game tomorrow. Yeah. I still think it's Matthew Stafford. Here's where I want to play devil's advocate to several of your points. Okay.

We have a tendency as a general. football media body to look at the Rams and graft the best version of the Rams onto them. Where it's like the Rams, when we think about the Rams and what they're capable of, we always go to the best possible version of the Rams. So much of that is Matthew Stafford. Because I think that we picture in our heads the hot streak versions of Matthew Stafford, the best versions of Matthew Stafford, those heater stretches that he can have. Are we overstating how much those are happening compared to the downswings,

now as he gets a little bit deeper into his career. I think last year, the gap between the good and the bad was getting bigger and was bigger than it has been in recent memory. Here's a stat that I will give you, okay? Matthew Stafford, last season. Here are the quarterbacks with a worse EPA per dropback than Matthew Stafford when pressured last year. Gardner Minchu, Cooper Rush, Will Levis, Joe Flacco, Spencer Rattler, Russell, DeShon Watson, Daniel Jones.

end of list. None of those guys is starting for the team that he played for last year. None of them. This is just disrespect to your elders right here. He's 37 years old. That's, I mean, there's going to be. But shouldn't we be taking that into account, right? And so I think, and so if you now flip it on the other side. So that's when pressured. When not pressured last year, he was eighth in EPA for dropback.

When things are clean and when he is given time and space to operate in the pocket, he's phenomenal. But I think that adherence to the circumstances and how important, are in his success now is something that's worth mentioning. I think Matthew Stafford's status as one of the best quarterbacks in the league to me is more fragile than it is for a lot of these guys because he's getting a little bit older. This is a devil's advocate case, by the way, I love Matthew Stafford. I want to be very clear about this. So I actually do agree with that. Like, I think if you gave some of the other quarterbacks that we're going to talk about like C minus level environment,

I think there are a handful of other quarterbacks who might play a little bit better than Matthew Stafford would. But if you give all of these guys like a B plus level environment, especially with respect to the offensive line, I think Matthew Stafford gives you the best highs. And ultimately, you need the highs to win the Super Bowl. So that's kind of the way that I'm framing it. I just think if I watch, but I do think his lows are lower and it is a little bit more fragile, specifically with the offensive lines. I just think there's more vacillation now with his play based on the quality of the offensive line.

If you look at the Rams over the last three years, like it's very easy to do. this and connect the dots. In 2022, or excuse me, in 2023, the pass protection was phenomenal. It was really, really good all year. In 2021, the past protection was phenomenal the entire year. They couldn't run the ball, but the pass protection was excellent. In 2022, it was dog shit. In 2024, especially early in the season, especially the first half of the year, when they never had the same guys, swapping out with these guys, they had struggles in past protection, and you saw his play suffer significantly. So that's my only concern. concern here is that we attach ourselves to the highs and we ignore the lows when he is more susceptible

to the lows than we're probably willing to admit right now. I think I can agree with that. The other final point that I would make in favor of Matthew Stafford is obviously aside from Calvin Johnson, who truly is one of the best that we've ever seen? Is there any quarterback who consistently makes us believe that receivers might be a little bit better than they are like Matthew Stafford? What are you trying to say about Pooka-N-Kua? Kenny Gulliday. Here's the thing. I love Pooka-Kua and he's a fantastic player. I do think he kind of only works because he's playing with a quarterback like Matthew Stafford. Because Pooka... In what sense? Watch yourself here. He doesn't separate that well. He's kind of like a car crash receiver. And Matthew Stafford is one of like five quarterbacks who is like,

I'm going to let him do it. I'm going to instill confidence in this guy and let him do it. So I'm glad you're saying this. It's because he's given the opportunities with the Gallag Matthew Stafford. Matthew Stafford will trust him to get the best out of his skill set. So who are the other quarterbacks that Pooka Nakua could be Pooka Nakua with. Dak Prescott. Dach. Jordan Love. Jordan Love.

Bryce Young. Brock Purdy, I think. Brock Purdy is a good one. Yeah. Rock Pardy actually is a good one. That's another one. Gino maybe. Gino, you could maybe get me there, but that's probably is the list.

It's different types of throws. It's different types of throws. I think Gino is like that kind of aggressive, but not on the throws that Pukinak and Kua would necessarily. Dak and Purti, actually, I think are my two. I think Burrow also is what gives guys chances like that. Oh, yeah, I wasn't thinking about it.

He does that more outside the numbers. That's fair. Whereas Pugankua is a little bit more between the hashes and stuff like that. I'm thinking about corner routes from Matthew Stafford. That's kind of what I had pictured in my mind. That's true.

I just want to, my pushback and it's fair. And yeah, like it can look really bad when things aren't right with the Rams. But the same problems that lead to the Rams not looking that good. Matthew Stafford is a big part of, what, six wins in seven games.

down the stretch in 2023 to get into the playoffs and five straight five straight wins last year like and yeah it does involve things being more coherent more consistent but when things are right with the rams the ceiling is that high where you can win six of seven I said it before we started recording if jalen carter is not superman in the clutch then the rams win that game on the road in the link even with sayquan going off like that is what matthew stafford brings is yes he needs the ecosystem around him to be right. But if it is, very few quarterbacks in the NFL are more terrifying than that guy. And I'll ride with that every single time.

I don't disagree with that. And I think that, again, I fall victim to talking myself into the Matthew Stafford highs pretty quickly and pretty easily. This is as much me trying to check myself about my Rams and Matthew Stafford expectations as it is anything else. I get it. It's intoxicating. I do agree with that.

And I mean, I'm looking at last year right now. And I'm just like, oh, yeah, they did win that San Francisco game 12 to 6. And it was like one of the worst. I mean, that was a rainstorm. I mean, that I'm like not as worried about. But they have moments like that. You know, the loss to the bears is another one that comes to my mind from last year where you're like, ah, you're not as great as my imagination leads me to believe.

But we all know what the highs look like, too. All right. So if you had Matthew Stafford at 5 and Jordan, Justin Herbert, six in some order. Who is the next guy that you would mention here if you were trying to make a case with the six best quarterback in the leave, David? I know what last year looked like, but I won't be chased off of C.J. Stroud that quickly. I won't be. And like I said, I know I know what it was. I know that the offensive line was a wreck. I know that he developed some bad habits because of it. You know, tell me if you think I'm crazy for this. And look, you can pull up all the stats you want. We have more metrics than ever. But like a lot. of the way I feel about this comes down to like the throws that I've seen them make and the throws that they're willing to make and how consistently they do it. And I think I'm stealing a line from you, Robert, but C.J. Strau just does a handful of things, usually per week where you're just

like, holy shit. Like, there just aren't very many guys that can do that. And I know, I know that it's what, it's year three. It's a big year for him. It's got to be better this time around. I don't love, ironically, the supporting cast around him as much as I would like to. Like, I don't think the Texans are as well positioned as they should be for a team that is trying to strike on a young quarterback's deal. But he has the juice, man. I don't know what else to say. That's not a very scientific answer, but I trust his skill set and his aggressiveness and his decision making and all that stuff. But framing it that way is important because if you look at a lot of the kind of the concrete numbers and stats associated with this, the Texans' offense was bad last year.

And C.J. Stroud's numbers were bad. And it wasn't that good in 2023. They were an average offense. Average though. Last year they were like decidedly below average. And if you look at some of the success rate stuff, everything else, they are not favorable for C.J. Stroud. So you kind of have to go on vibes with that.

And I support that. There are two guys there. And you can, if you feel like this is an unfair framing, then please tell me. I think there are two guys where I don't know if I can justifiably make a case for them as the six best quarterback in the league right now based on how last season went. but I don't want to go too far the other way because I think after this season, I think I'll be able to make a pretty strong argument for both of them,

and that's C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love. Because I feel like what happened, I don't want to overreact to what happened in disappointing is strong, especially with Jordan Love, but mildly underwhelming seasons compared to the expectations we had for them. I think that Jordan Love,

when you consider the injury, just didn't take the stuff forward that we wanted. C.J. Stroud, I think, regressed a little bit. last year. But the offense imploded. The number that I'll give you here, 78 quick pressures that CJ Stroud faced in 2020.

Okay, 78. In 2024, 113. 16. It was 18% of his dropbacks had a quick pressure on it last year. It was like six and a half times a game. Yeah. Oh my Jesus. I mean,

you can't operate that way. No. And that's actually the point I do want to make in favor of Stroud is like, I do think towards the back half of the season, you saw it start to get to him where he was just not. as well. At the same time, when he got to the playoffs, he bounced back. Like, he was very, very good in the playoffs. They damn near beat the chiefs if their offensive line didn't completely explode towards the end, which they had been for a majority of the season. But like, he played

well enough in that game to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, which given how they had played over the last eight weeks of the season, I think is crazy. And so just for me, a young guy to have like that level of resiliency, I thought was like really impressive. And then Jordan Love, I mean, and I think this applies to both of them. They kind of like, you were. saying, Dave, they make throws that you have to make to, like, win the most important games. And that's like a very, it is kind of like a vibes-based things, but they are so willing to throw into tight windows, throw off of their back foot, get to these weird platforms in crowded pockets. And that's the most important thing to me. And Robert, you pointed this out when

CJ Stroud was really coming onto the scene as a rookie is that standing in one spot in the pocket, he can get to just 80 different arm angles if he has to. And his ability and creativity to do that is so impressive. And I think Jordan Love has a lot of that almost, almost as to his detriment sometimes, but I think I would rather have that than the guys who can't do any of it. It's really easy to imagine a world where Jordan Love just takes off.

And I can say the same about C.J. Stroud. I feel the same about both of them. Exactly. I just, I trust, I trust C.J. Strouds. I trust the process is there, even if the results are not. And even if, even if he did regress,

even if the numbers aren't all that good. Like, what C.J. Stroud did, if that's a bad year, you're in a pretty good spot. Would you agree with that? I mean, getting to the playoffs, playing well in a playoff win, playing well in the next round, and that's with very little around you helping you out. I mean, the Texans fired their offensive coordinator after a season where they won a playoff game, which speaks to how well C.J. Stroud adapted to a bad situation.

If that is a bad situation and a quote unquote bad season, then I'm very excited about what a better season can look like, especially as he just gets more reps and gets more confident as a quarterback. I saw he said in a story with Fox Sports recently where he, like, he was like, I don't want to say that I was, I was like confident or cocky, but I felt comfortable. And that can be like a dangerous place to be, you know? And I think that's a classic story for a year or two guy. So with more of that experience and more time on task, again, if that was him in a bad year in year two, then This is a fantastic place to be. I agree with that to an extent.

I also think if you look at the numbers, they're a little bit more troubling than you probably would believe before you go back and look at them. If you look at like drop back success rate on next gen, CJ Stroud is one spot ahead of Caleb Williams from last year and one spot behind Russell Wilson. Like the numbers were not good. I'm willing to believe in spite of that

because of how bad the situation was. Here's the only thing that we're, me a little bit. You talking about how near the end of the year you could see it affecting him. I think that his pocket movement, pocket presence and the ability to operate from that space as a rookie was incredible, like predate natural, like why I believed in him so much. My concern is, does that get rattled a little bit? Do you start to develop bad habits because of what this season looked like? Because when you watch him in the back half of last year, and he played well for stretches in the playoffs, but there are weird misses, there are weird sprays. He's really sped up.

the only thing that concerns me is, is that a temporary thing or is that something that lingers into this year, even if the environment offensively gets a little bit better in a new system? I think it's a fair concern. I think, though, with a lot of quarterbacks we've seen, if they are having a year where they are pressured way more than they normally would be, it just starts to affect them even when they're not getting pressure. I think this even happens to a lot of the best guys. It's happened to Trevor Lawrence pretty recently. I think we've seen it happen with Aaron Rogers at certain points in his career. like even two very good quarterbacks, if you're just getting pressured way more within a given season than you're used to,

it does start to affect you. And so obviously because his career is so short, we don't have that much of a sample size. So it's hard to say like, oh, well, next year, if it's not quite as bad, he'll be perfectly fine again. So we don't know,

but I have enough confidence in how good it looked year one that I just, I feel like that's more of the guy that we're going to get moving forward. Who do you feel better about heading into this fall, love or Stroud? I think it's probably, that's a great question. I like everything about love surroundings more than CJ's

to be honest with you. I absolutely do because I've seen it. CJ has an eco, but yeah. I've seen it with the Packers. Even if there's no high end talent on the Packers right now, I think that the floor circumstantially is extremely high.

I think they are very similar players. I think the difference comes down to what is your appetite for recklessness. Because I think C.J. Stroud is a, he's an aggressive and ambivalrousness. ambitious passer, I don't think he's reckless. Jordan Love teeters into recklessness. And it's a matter of like how much do you think that that's a fine trait to have versus not?

I think Jordan Love is a little bit more dynamic as an athlete in the pocket. Yeah, because he just showed out, I think he's more creative as a throw. We're talking about arm angles and things like that. I think Jordan Love is close. But Jordan Love's ability to make plays while backpedaling everything else. I just think that's so pronounced. And I think the fact that Jordan Love doesn't take sacks is a huge part of this as well. He's reckless in what he does with the ball.

but that is offset a little bit to me when it comes to the overall bucket of negative plays because he doesn't take sacks. And this is to me an interesting discussion. We don't have to dig too much into this because I think we're going to spend an entire show talking about this. The idea of what makes an elite quarterback. Like what are the non-negotiable traits

of what an elite quarterback looks like in 2025? I don't think it has, it's not all about like physical tools and explosiveness and speed and scrambling ability and things like that. My answer to that is, what can you access? on the field. Which throws can you access? Some of that is going to be done in the first two and a half

seconds of the play. Joe Burrow can access throws. Other quarterbacks cannot because of how quickly he processes things. Jordan Love can access throws other quarterbacks can't late in plays because of what he can do from various platforms in the pocket. C.J. Stroud can access throws and not a lot of the quarterbacks can because of some of that creativity, the armangle stuff, how he can get throws off without stepping into them. So as I try to like articulate, what makes great quarterbacks. What makes a guy that you could say is the sixth best quarterback in the league? How many different throws and how many different plays can you access as a player? And that's why Matthew Stafford is so high on this list. He can access every single throw

available to you even if he isn't a quote unquote mobile player. That's a great way to put it. I think there are a lot of there are a lot of good quarterbacks where the throw is clean and the throw is there and the pocket's fine. They can all make the throws. But it's like what tool do you have to access anything beyond that. And some guys have, you know, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have 10 of those different traits. So they can do a lot of different things. And from Matthew Stafford, you know,

since he's not that mobile and stuff like that, he might only have four of those traits. But because his arm is so good and he's so willing to make some of these throws, it unlocks everything that he needs to to make a lot of those stuff. And Stafford is for a long time, even though because of the, you know, a little bit of the mobility has gone away,

he can't access some of the cool throwing platforms he used to get to. But he's still an incredibly creative pocket. passer within the way that he'll just, I mean, sidearm and just do all the stupid shit that he's doing all the time. It's really fun to watch. And aggressiveness also leads to what throws you could access. That is a part of this conversation. So David brought up C.J. Stroud. I lumped Jordan Love into that. How close was the C.J. Stroud Jordan Love pairing to like the top of your list as you were going through these guys? They, so I brought like 10 or 11 names that not all of them I necessarily believe should be in this conversation, but at least like we're worth throwing out there.

think there were probably only five guys I would seriously consider to be the sixth best quarterback and I think Stroud and Love were both in that category. So they are like firmly in the serious conversation for me. Like tags touching. Yeah, like I'm, I'm sitting here feeling a little guilty for bringing up C.J. Stroud ahead of Jordan Love. Like I'm pretty confident and I admire them both pretty equally. And to your point, Jordan loves that extra tick of athleticism is so intoxicating. And like the stuff. you can see him do, the stuff off schedule. It isn't all together yet, and it can lead to him being a little reckless, but I mean,

some really great quarterbacks have had reckless streaks as well. CJ Stroud did a lot more of that stuff last year, too. CJ Stroud was scrambling more, he was having to be more creative. The only thing that worries me a little bit about Stroud, this is the last point I'll make about him. As a rookie, he had deal with some of this. It's not like he had the best offensive line in the league, but it was acceptable. Coming out of Ohio State, remember, we talked about what happens? when he's in a scenario where he doesn't have an offensive line

that's just leaps and bounds better than the defensive lines they're playing against? What happens when the game gets muddier? We saw the Northwestern game that year, the Michigan game that year, and the Georgia game that year. That was it and he was fine. But over an extended period of time,

if things are really dirty for him consistently, what kind of player is he? And last year was the first time we really had to sit in that, and it didn't look great. So is that solely a product of how bad the protection and the ecosystem was? or is there something endemic about who he is as a player

that maybe should give us cause for concern about what that area of his game is going to look like moving forward? I think, and this can be a greater discussion about like overall quarterback skill sets and what we should value, I think pocket passers are kind of always going to have that about them. It's what we just talked about with Matthew Stafford. Like Matthew Stafford is a great quarterback, but when the offensive line ahead of him is not that good,

you fall into this spot where because you can't create around it with your mobility, you kind of get stuck playing the volatility game as a pocket pass. Don't you think there are guys, though, that have better subtle pocket mobility and movement that are able to overcome it a little bit better? Even Jordan Love is susceptible to it in the same way that a guy like CJ Stroud would be. Even though Jordan Love's pocket pass protection has been considerably better than CJ Strout's. That's a good point. I do think there are still guys who are better at it versus worse.

Like I, you know, we'll probably talk about him later. But like Jared Goff, I think, has been one of the guys who's not very good at it. And so there is still a sliding scale. but I do think that pocket passers in general are always going to struggle with that more than the guys like Lamar Jackson who can very obviously get outside of the pocket whenever they want to. The Josh Allen's like guys like that. All right.

So I think that CJ Stroud and Jordan Love were the quarterbacks after their rookie years or first year starters that we were very, very excited about. And maybe some of us, I'll throw myself in there, got a little bit ahead of ourselves and what we expected from them last year. The guy that you could probably say that about now is Jaden Daniels. And if I were answering this question about the six best quarterback in the league, I would have to ask some follow-up questions. Do you mean right now?

Do you mean like this year? Is there a guy that outside of those top five, who would I take to win a game? That's still probably Matthew Stafford. The guy I'm taking beyond this year, I think I'd be pretty tempted to say that Jaden Daniels is the sixth best quarterback in the league. One of the only reasons I'm not being even more forceful about this is because I remember what we did last off season and I'm trying to protect myself a little bit. And we probably should be.

It's really easy to go all in with guys like Jaden Daniels. And I do think for as good as C.J. Stroud was like watching Jaden Daniels do it was just more exciting. And like that team won more games. Like there was just, it felt a little bit more exhilarating to watch a guy like J. And he had more like pop moments. And the number. That's the other thing is like we all knew C.J. Stroud was good. But the numbers were like, okay, well, they're an average offense.

It's just we didn't even think that they could get to average. With Washington, they were legitimately like a top five, six offense as a throwing offense with what Jaden. Niels was doing. So it is with with Daniels, it is mostly a, I don't want to get there too early with a guy who's only done it for one year. And there is still something about the way that he throws that I wish he was a little bit more aggressive into tight windows, specifically to like the intermediate area of the field. And maybe that's more of a me problem than a Jaden Daniels problem.

He's obviously an incredibly productive quarterback otherwise. And he, because of what he can do outside of the pocket, maybe he doesn't even need that trait that I'm talking about. So maybe I'm just being a little bit too like, in my own head about the way I view the position. But we've talked about this though. He's kept in the pocket. Where are the limitations?

Those are his worst place. Does he run into them this year? Kept in the pocket deep into downs. Those are his worst place. But with Jane Daniels, it's like even the low moments or even some of the deficiencies, he was a rookie last year. Exactly. It's just how much do I, how much am I supposed to care about the deficiencies in that are they even

remotely set in stone? Like we've seen him for one year. the deficiencies for a guy with that sort of track record feel temporary in a way that they don't with some of these guys we've seen for five, six, seven seasons. My pushback on Derek was going to be that, yeah, of course, he could get more aggressive. He could be more willing to throw in a tight windows. It was his first year starting in the NFL. Like year two will be different. Lord knows what year six or year seven might look like. That stuff comes with time. My only thing with Jaden is it's purely self-preservation and trial and error of having done this a few times. like if this was my I would I would love to put him fifth I would love to and and plenty of people have like you see the lists that come out at this time of year plenty of people I think it was

jeremy fowler's you know the the lists that are coming out that that everybody looks at this time of year he was fifth in that ranking if I recall rightly that it makes perfect sense based on what he did based on the skill set I just refuse and like if and and I don't blame you at this point I just refuse and it's not a knock on jaden it's not a knock on the commanders, I just, I need to see more of it. And like, if being unwilling to say that Jaden Daniels is the fifth best quarterback in the league until he's 10 games into his sophomore season, like if that counts as disbelief, okay, I'll wear it. Like, fine. I don't wear it. And meanwhile, I'm over here like, okay, like at worst, he's probably ninth or tenth as a second year player. Like,

if that's not believing in a guy, like, I can live with that. I, I think the arrows pointed upward. I hope he continues it again and to to y'all's point like keep him in the pocket easier freaking said than done like this isn't this is not your standard mobile quarterback this is a quarterback where keeping him in the pocket is a task unto itself and if you truly commit to that you'll compromise yourselves in other ways so i don't want to say that he's undefendable but i think his skill set makes it very very likely that he can avoid a slump like if there's a quarterback then a that can avoid a slump i'll bet on him. I'd still like to see it. I think the avoiding a slump thing to me is more about the elements of his game that I just feel like are who he is and potentially stable, like what he does against

the blitz, how quick of an operator and a processor he is. That's the type of stuff where that's why I believe in him. It's not about the scrambling. It's not about the athleticism. It's how quickly the gears are turning up there in a good way. We talk about this. Like the be quick, never in a hurry thing. That is how Jaden Daniels plays. And that like steady heartbeat element of who he is. is. That's why I choose to believe that even if some of the stuff that was a little volatile last year, the scrambling, the deep balls, the sacks that he's taking, I'm willing to kind of overlook that a little bit because of just who he seems to be at his core in those moments. And I think that's kind of what I need to get into my head with Jaden Daniels is that I think

he always has an answer and he always has an answer very quickly. I think sometimes the issue I have with him, it's like it's not my favorite answer. Sometimes he'll be a little bit quick to check down sometimes he'll, it is. That's what I'm saying. Like, Sometimes he'll pull the rip court a little bit too early and just become a scrambler. Sometimes he won't throw into tight windows when I think that they're there. But he's getting to a different answer. Just so I'm clear, to Robert's point, like your issues with him are that he's playing the way you would probably prefer a young quarterback to play. Yeah.

The thing is, and he's basically, yes. You're like, come on, man, do something crazy. Well, that's why, like, Dak Prescott, Jordan, Love, Matthew Stap, those are all guys that I would probably put ahead of him because I just, there's something about, even if, again, like I said, Jaden Daniels is always getting to an answer very quickly, and it is often a very consistent answer. There's just something about, like, I wish he was pushing the envelope a little bit more at times.

And again, I understand that that's a me problem, but it's, if I'm being honest to myself, it's hard to get over. I won't be surprised if you get your wish, though. I mean, again, he's played one year of NFL football. And you know this. He's gotten better, like, every year that he played in college. Like, he was decent as a freshman in Arizona State, obviously had some weird stuff with all the COVID and all that stuff.

But then he gets to LSU and he gets better from this first year there to a second year there. And then he answers some questions of a rookie. So if he gets better in the ways that I talked about Lamar Jackson, obviously getting better through his college days, like it wouldn't be a surprise. If I'm envisioning it, like when I do this list in my head, I don't even like, Jaden's just off to the side where I'm like, all right, I will figure out, I will figure out a number for you in November when we see what you're doing. And I won't be surprised if he really is fifth.

I'm just, I'm not ready yet. Coming off of the Justin Herbert rookie year and last year, that's why I'm not like sitting here pounding the table saying that Jane Daniels is the answer. Because I just, I'm like you, like, I'm just not going to do it again. Like if I, if the downside there is I wasn't early enough on saying Jane Daniels is the fifth best quarterback, I'm willing to live with that because I want to be better. I'm trying to improve on my mistakes. We're, this is, this is the time, like we can be rational.

like we can have a fun time doing this and still we don't have to jump the guy to fifth like literally behind every all the big four it's the three mvps and and joe burrow who has statistical stuff out the wazoo it's okay if we just chill for at least part of one more season i'm talking to myself here as much as anyone else we have to have like less tic-tok attention span with ranking quarterbacks like we just i have to be better about that as well but like i just even for as good as i think jaden daniels is i is and can be. I just don't feel the need to put him quite that high yet. What I am very excited about is having maybe not this exact conversation, but hinting at this conversation a year from now with these three guys. I think that there's absolutely a world where we get to this time next year, July 15th, 2026. And it is definitive in our minds that in some order six through eight, it's Jayden Daniels, George Love and C.J. Stroud. I don't think you can say that right now based on how last season went just because we don't have it enough from Jane Daniels and the lack of a definitive stuff forward from the other two I think makes it a little bit harder

but it would not surprise me at all if we are overreacting a little bit too much to what happened to those guys last year and this is the year that they actually take that stuff forward I certainly wouldn't be surprised if it happened that way I don't think so either and especially with like some of the other quarterbacks that again are in the six through eight category are getting older it's the Matthew Stafford's it's the the DAC Prescott's you know Jared golf isn't that old but he's not as young as these other guys. So it's like the other guys in that range probably don't have as much upside left as these young guys do. You mentioned Dak and that is the first person we were going to talk about after we take one more quick break. The fact that we got, how long we've been recording

about are 50 minutes? Okay. The fact that we got 55 minutes into this show and that's the first time you just said Dak Prescott's name is astonishing to me. Well, astonishing to me. So you started the show asking me who is the sixth best quarterback in the NFL? And I had a quick answer with just Matthew Stafford. If you went and asked me who is number seven, I would have probably still said that Prescott. I still think that he is that level of good. You have an interesting relationship with that Scott Scott, just because you've had to fight the Dak Prescott wars in a different way than the rest of us have. You're on the home front there. I mean, interesting is a great way to put it. I mean, it's a war on both sides, really. Like the,

the burden of being the Cowboys quarterback, and he's well compensated, so he'll be okay. But like, got that sleep number money and on top of several other things it's you have to find the sweet spot between like okay i'm going to defend dac to everybody else and say he's better than than you think and at the same time like pump people down on the cowboy side like all right hang on like there are critiques that can be made of dac prescott and on top of that there are plenty of cowboy fans who hate him just as much as opposing fan bases do like i mean the guy can't win i love to day him about how we would perceive Dak Prescott if he played for almost any other team in the NFL. Because I have a strong suspicion that he would be your favorite quarterback's favorite quarterback,

but he's a Dallas Cowboy, and that just throws a wrench into the whole thing. And it's all very toxic. We led the show talking about how we're tired of talking about Justin Herbert's place in this whole thing. At this point, that's kind of how I feel about Dak. Like, I mean, he hasn't done anything to advance the conversation in the last couple years. unfortunately there's been an injury to deal with in 2020 24 coming off of another one he's well into his 30s he hasn't done anything to clearly plant that flag like yes i really am that good he's also clearly a very very good very accomplished quarterback i'm like all right man i i need something new to happen he was

statistically fantastic in 2023 he he was all pro i believe he finished second in the mvp voting that was very nice, but let's be honest. With the playoff monkey that's hanging over the Cowboys, none of that stuff is going to matter until he puts together some sort of meaningful postseason and it hasn't happened. That last playoff game was honestly

the only one that has ever pissed me off with him. And it wasn't even necessarily because I thought he played that poorly. It was like, you could tell from the first quarter, him and Cideland were just like not having it that day. And it was like the most bizarre playoff performance I've seen out of those two, probably the entire time that they've been

together. The Packers took the ball. They marched downfield and scored. And from there on out, like the whole team, you could just tell they were like, oh, it's slipping away. Like in the first quarter, you could tell they felt that way. I'm going to present two numbers to you that I just want your take on. Okay. The first one, Dack was phenomenal in 2023. If you look at the numbers, he was justifiably an MVP candidate the entire season. The Cowboys played pretty clearly the worst schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL in 2023. And in the playoffs, they laid an egg. It was bad. Okay, just something to throw out there for context. This year, before Dak got hurt,

here are the quarterbacks in the NFL who had a worst success rate than Dak Prescott. Tyler Huntley, Andy Dalton, Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissette, Anthony Richardson, Spencer Rattler, Will Levis, Deshawn Watson. Do we care about that at all? I mean, a little bit, but I do think, like, how, you made this point earlier in the season,

we were calling at some point for Cavante Turpin to play more sound. for this team. So like this receiving core outside of CD Lamb, I think it was not good. And I think they quietly had one of the worst run games in the league. So like they were constantly in these situations where it's like, it was disgusting. It was pretty bad.

They had a lot of young offensive linemen. Obviously running back core wasn't as talented as it had been before. So I think again, it goes back to like when you force some of these pocket passers into situations where it's always like second and 11, you can just sometimes get these years where it just doesn't look that good. And I think that's especially true. true with Dak Prescott's play style.

And I think that's something to bring up to is like some quarterbacks by nature of their play style, like when it's bad, they're almost going to make it worse. But I don't think that makes the quarterback worse, if that makes sense. Like a, um, there's a good one here for that. Like I think Jared Goff, if you have like a C minus situation, he's not going to do anything that's making it worse because he's just going to play the play, all that stuff. your offense is going to be as bad as whatever is surrounding him. Because Dak Prescott so willingly is able to be aggressive and willing to hang into the pocket

and make these tight window throws. Oh, he'll make it worse. He'll make it worse. He's inviting volatility and he might make it worse. He can make it worse. But I just think that cuts the other way. Like when you have a really good team, he makes it better than it should be because he's willing to squeeze the most out of everything

that you have. I completely agree with that. I'm really interested to see what he looks like this year. Because obviously he's not as bad as he was. in the 200 dropbacks we saw last year. He's probably not as good as he was in 2023 playing against that schedule. So where we land in a Brian Schottinheimer-led offense, which is its own fascinating wrinkle to the 2025 Cowboys season,

an offense that now has George Pickens and C.D. Lamb and an offensive line that I think in theory is a year older, can gel a little bit. Like what we get from DAC this year and where it lands between the very separate extremes we have seen over the last couple years, to me, is fascinating. Because I don't know where I land. I don't think I would, I think I'd be much more hesitant about throwing him at six than I would have been a year ago.

But I wonder, is that, do I have a good reason? Or is that just because we saw him for like four games and they weren't that great this year? And should I take that that strongly into account? So, and that's kind of my thing is that because football is such a small sample-sized sport, I think especially when, I think one quarterback season, sometimes we're, were too often to be like very flippant with our takes. And then especially to when it's a season where he plays like six games.

And especially early in the season where again, I think a lot of teams in the NFL like don't really look like the team that they are until like week eight. And so when he only plays those first like five weeks, I think it can look a little bit choppy. Dak had some really fun moments in that brief window of time. I'm just like reliving last season now. Like he went 22 of 27 against the Giants, which obviously the Giants are terrible.

But that game was sick. It was the most disgusting clinic of like ball placement and pocket movement ever. It was like DAC at his absolute best. And then the week after that, he goes and had a classic DAC game where he made some dumb decisions but pulled him out of the fire against the Steelers. Like he's a very, very good quarterback. He is the poster boy for on his day, he's right up there with almost anybody outside of like the big three. And if it's not his day, you can wonder how the hell this. that guy got the amount of money that he's made over the course of his career.

Do you think there is a better chance when we get to the end of this season that we think Jaden Daniels or Dak Prescott as a six best quarterback in the NFL? The collective mind, it will probably be Jaden Daniels. I think myself, like I'm willing to keep my eyes open for both of them. And I think here's what I'll say. And it goes back to a little bit what I was talking about with Jaden Daniels and just like my preferences for the position. We don't really make Dak Prescott's anymore.

And I think that that's kind of fascinating. Like the true, like sheriff in the pocket, handle all the protections, like willing to make these super tight window throws, especially towards the intermediate, doesn't really do that much maneuvering around outside of the pocket. Like, he's just a we don't make a lot of those. And so maybe I'm clinging too much on to like, I just think that that's a fascinating style of play that we don't make anymore. Do we not make a lot of them anymore or do fourth round picks not rise to become franchise quarterback at off? I think he's just talking more stylistically. I think it's like the like Peyton Manning just like on the sheriff of the offense. Like there's just not a lot of those guys in.

No, I mean, you're completely right. But I think a lot of that is a byproduct of like needing to play that. Oh, because okay. No, that makes sense.

Because I mean, yeah, no, that's a really good point. I, one other. And I don't want to. Because now we're just drafting the super athletes in the top five.

That's a good way to frame it. I don't want to do a Dave Helman Cowboys Therapy session today. But this whole thing is, it's complicated for me personally. like it was cute for so much of Dax's career to be like it could be so much better but they cut Dez right after Dac got there and they traded Amari Cooper when they had all this firepower on offense and the Cowboys won't spend money. That's all cute until you agree. You have unprecedented leverage that would let you call your own shot and you agree to sign up for four or five more years of this. I don't want to hear that anymore. I want to see results with what the Cowboys are willing to put around him. Otherwise, why aren't we talking about DAC the Steeler or DAC the RAM

or DAC the whatever like he and I get it it's a hell of a price tag to turn down but plenty of other teams would have been willing to offer that price tag as well. I think he would have done okay and free. He would have been just fine. And so I like I can't I can't make excuses for Dak Prescott anymore

is what I'm trying to say. And this is what he signed up for and it's just it's got to be better than what we've seen. So you're disappointed in Dak the businessman, not the NFL player. But that I guess one. I can be disappointed in both. But like, yeah.

Dack can be so, so good. But it's like Sisyphus. Like it's when you like the hill, the boulder is moving to the top of the hill. And then all of a sudden you're back down at the bottom and you're like, ah, shit, we got to do this again. All right. Let's move on from polarizing quarterbacks and talk about J-1-Hertz. So,

obviously this is, this is the third real discussion this off-season. And I'm trying to figure out how I want to approach. this. My first reaction to everything that's gone on in the J-1-Hertz discourse over the last few months and every reaction there's been to every list and how can you have J-1-Hertz behind so-and-so, I remember the 2023 off-season. I remember it. I remember what May through, what May of 2023 through February 1st of 2024 looked like. I remember everyone being like, well, how can you say that J-1-Hertz isn't one of the best quarterbacks in the league? Did you just how he played in the Super Bowl.

And then I remember how he played in 2020. And are, or most of this year. We're in most of this season. Are we just going to do that again? Are we just going to say like, because Jalen Hertz played well in the Super Bowl. And this idea that he's like some playoff phenom to me is really interesting.

He right now, if you go from 2020 to last year, so not even including the year one thing where they got pantsed by the bucks. Just 22 to 2024. He is 13th in EPA. drop back in the playoffs. He's behind Dak and Russell Wilson. Who Dak famously playoff Joker. Yes.

So just a tiny bit of context there. But that's my first reaction here. Are we probably, are we as a like football cognoscenti too low on Jalen Hertz for a bunch of different reasons? I think the answer to that is probably yes and we can discuss what those might be. But there are so

many echoes of this that just remind me of what the 20, 23 offseason felt like that I just can't help but be like, are our memories collectively that short? Are we really doing this again? I think there are some parts of Jalen Hertz that I probably struggle with and probably do underrate. Like he, especially this year, was really good as a scrambler. And I think that that was really helpful for them. I think he did have a weird stretch like in 2023 where he was turning the ball over a lot and even early last year.

But for the most part, he has been a quarterback who does not turn the ball over. And that is pretty valuable. And then he has had moments in the playoffs. His overall playoff history is not that good, but he's had a couple of games. It's fine. It's not like, it's not bad. It's not bad, but it's not like he's a different player in the playoffs. That's the thing.

It's like people will bring up the Super Bowl and even the one against the Chiefs, but it's also like. I thought he played better in that game than this one, by the way, significantly. And it's also like, he played poorly enough for them to lose that Rams game. And that took seven sacks. Yeah,

that team just got away with it. And I think that's the thing that I would say about Jalen Hurts is he's not a bad quarterback. It's just that he gets away with more than other quarterbacks are able to get away with by virtue of the rest of the roster being incredibly good. In the playoff game against the Packers, he went 13 of 21 for 131 yards. And they won, right?

Like, they can win those games. And that's, Nick Serriani came out this week and it's just like, he does what we ask him to do to win. Well, you can ask him less than a lot of other teams can ask their quarterback because of all the other things that you have. Like, that does matter. Yes.

All of those things you said to me are correct in terms of where we might underrate J-1-Harts. the other side of this is. And to me, it's like, I think that the tush push to sneak stuff is, I think we could get a lot of guys to succeed in that based on how good the Eagles are. That's my personal opinion.

Like the Jalen Hertz Justin Herbert moment that happened this summer where it was like, well, Justin Herbert could never do that. I was like 250 pounds. He's like a massive man who's a good athlete. I think we could probably do it. The element of the Jalen Hertz ground game stuff that I do think matters is that their ability

to operate as like a shotgun base run game. and what the quarterback run, the threat of the quarterback run does to the complexion of the offense, does matter. Like, that does carry weight. If you look at the numbers for Sequin in the gun and out of the gun last year, it is significantly different.

The question for me is whether or not the added benefit that you get, you get from him in the run game, outshine some of his deficiencies as a passer compared to these guys. And my answer to that is just no. Like, he's an accurate passer. He throws the ball well down field. He's a good scrambler.

All that stuff is true. But if you look at it, we're talking about accessing throws. He accesses so many fewer throws than a lot of these elite quarterbacks because of the way he plays. He's robotic in the pocket. He doesn't process well. Like his deficiencies are very real, even if the strengths are also very real. This is contrary to what we're doing here. It's offseason we're generating discussion.

The take I'm workshopping is that Jalen Hertz. specifically, like he makes this conversation obsolete. Like that's where I wind up with Jalen Hertz because like so much so much of this stuff is like, can you win a Super Bowl with him? Like, are you going to be able to win a Super Bowl when he gets so expensive that he starts accounting for like a significant chunk of the cap? Well, the answer for Jalen Hertz is yes. It's sort of.

The cap part of it is sort of. I mean, they're cheating. But the Eagles are uniquely, the Eagles are uniquely positioned to take advantage. and I'm sure the other front offices around the NFL hate them so much. What do you think J-1 Hertz's cap-in-hirtz's cap-in-law it is? It was $13.5 million. Do you have the percentage? Well, that's the percentage is the contract overall.

But if you look at the cap number, so the cap number in 2024 for J-1 Hertz, let's look at this right now. I'm curious about it. Where do you think J-1-Hertz's cap number ranked among all NFL players? last year. All players? All players. 13 million? I mean, not not in the top, not in the top 50. It's 85th. Here are the players that J-1 Hertz is wedged between

in cap number in 2024. Jonah Jackson and Larry Ogun Joby. You're kidding me. That's pretty good. So he's gotten paid. Whether or not that contract is onerous for the Eagles is a very different discussion. Hey, they're not doing anything outside the rule. as far as I'm aware. And like I said, if I was one of the other front offices in the league, I would be furious at how the Eagles have managed to do this.

But they have. And yes, he's got a lot of help. No, he is not. I mean, he's not one of the best pure passers in the NFL. And I think Nick Siriani's quote, it's coach speak, but it's pretty apropos where it's like he can afford, or they can afford for him to just be the guy that he needs to be.

You know, in the Rams, he got outplayed badly by Matthew Stafford. He threw for 128 yards. He also ran for 70 yards and a huge touchdown in that game. It doesn't, it doesn't look pretty most of the time, right? And yeah, like, you're talking about two off seasons ago. This season, to Derek's point, like, remember the Carolina game where we had a full-on midweek meltdown about whether... There's a mid-season meltdown about the quality of the passing game. And that's not washed away.

by a couple playoff performances. I'm sorry. It's just not for me. It's not. But my point is, does it matter if you have, if the quarterback in question has won the Super Bowl? Like you have proven that this player can get you to this stage and succeed.

And regardless of what it looks like, if I'm a fan, that is all I care about. And if I was, that's not what we're talking about here. We're trying to figure out who the sixth best quarterback in the league is. Like for discussions like this, it matters.

This idea of, Are you good enough? Can I win a Super Bowl with him? That's a discussion you have about whether you're the 15th best quarterback in the league. Yeah. Not whether you're the sixth best quarterback in the league. No, he's, I don't view him as the sixth best quarterback in the league.

But I think a lot of people want him to be right now based on what that playoff, what that Super Bowl looked like. And to me, it's just not enough to push me off of the very real limitations we've seen from him very recently. Yes. And like the point that I would make about like of Nick Sherihanihani saying, like, oh, you know, there's only certain things that we asked him to do.

I think Jalen Hertz has two primary issues to me. One, his pocket management is not good, but he's always played behind the best offensive line in football. So they just like circumvent this issue that he has that I think if he played in a place like Houston, it would absolutely pop up. It's a great point. And also, I think the receivers are that's, there's a receiver element in the same offense where it's like the throws he wants to make.

That's what I was made easier because of who his receivers are. And so that's what I was going to say. What throws you can access. On like a philosophical level, Jalen Hertz is accurate on the throws that he is willing to make. But is he that accurate really. It's a good point. I think he is an accurate quarterback.

I think he is generally, but like his, I think like his like, you know, completion percentage over expectation stuff is always like mega inflated because it's a receiver stat and he's only willing to make the throws that he knows that he's going to make. And it's like it's the issue that I've had with him for a lot of his career where like a lot of the stuff over the middle,

a lot of the tight window throws outside of go balls and stuff. He just doesn't, he just gets a little, he just gets a little like doesn't want to make a lot of those throws. And I think it goes back to what you're talking about where he just doesn't access as much stuff, but he doesn't get punished for not doing it because the rest of the team is so good.

It's interesting. A lot of times when I think about this conversation, like to truly, and so much of it is dependent on supporting cast, on the talent around you, on the coaching, on the front office and the ownership you work for. again, I mean, the Eagles, the way they structure their contracts and their roster is such an advantage. The way I look at it a lot is like if you're doing playground pickum style, you know,

like at what point would you get to Jalen Hertz? Yeah. And you can't convince me that it would be any earlier than like ninth or 10th probably. And I think that's fine. I start to being okay with you. And I think that's fine. But that's different than saying like, how is he not a top five quarterback, which has been a lot of the offseason discussion. But the other thing that makes this so tricky though is again.

And I under, we're all on the same page here. You still have built a team that is capable of reaching two Super Bowls in three years, winning a Super Bowl. He played well enough to win the first Super Bowl that they were in. I don't know the total off the top of my head, but they've been a double digit win team three of the four years that he's been the quarterback. Clearly, that is not all on his shoulders the way that you could argue it is with a couple other quarterbacks in the NFL. But that is incredibly, incredibly good and valuable in its own way. I hesitate to take all the credit away from Jalen Hertz. But at the same,

like if we're trying to determine the sixth best quarterback in the NFL in a vacuum, yeah, it's not even close for me personally. And I think that's fair. Like in our position, we are playing a silly game where we're like, oh, well, CJ Stroud would be better with the Eagles than Jalen Hertz is.

And it's like, I believe that, but it's like, we also don't really know. We don't really know. And like Hertz has executed well enough for them to get to that level. But again, it just is like, for me, trying to evaluate quarterbacks is so much of like, what are you asked to do and what are you really accessing that makes your team better?

And for both of those questions, I just struggle with Hertz compared to the other guys that we're talking about. I think his limitations are more pronounced than some of the other guys that we're talking about. And I think that you should take that into account. It's funny on the Jalen Hertz part of this where I think that a lot of people are looking at the results and they're over indexing those results as they try to rank J. hurts as an exercise like this. A guy on the other side of that where his team's success was not nearly what it had been recently last year, but I actually feel like I'd be more capable of making a real argument for him as the sixth best quarterback in the league now than I was before last season is Brock

fucking Purdy. Like I truly believe that if you had asked me this last year, I would have been like, oh, come on guys. Yeah, like, what are we doing? Brock is a good player. I was probably wrong about him coming out of like his first year. I thought he played really well. It was the best offense in the league.

It was an historically good offense. But is he really up among that group of guys? But the way that he played last year and what he was asked to do within that offense, I actually feel like a little bit better about who he is and what a team built around that contract is going to look like over the next two or three years to the point that I think you can make a real case that he has like an actual argument as the answer to this question. Did anybody actually expect? Because all through 2023, it was like, well, what would Brock look like without the Avengers on his team?

And like one year later, we kind of got the answer. Like, no McCaffrey. He was seven. And EPA dropped back last year. He was seventh. It all went away. That was so different. Yeah.

I just, I thought we wouldn't get the answer to like, what is Brock without all these all pros? I thought it would take three or four years. And it was less than a calendar year later where you don't have McCaffrey. They lost Trent Williams for a chunk of the year. I you goes down, I think less than half of the year. halfway through the season. And he was bad when he played. Yeah.

And he was still, I know, I mean, I know they went six and nine, but again, like, independent of that, like he played well. And yeah, I felt more confidence having seen that than I did when they were rolling over everybody in the NFL. And there's the stylistic stuff too for me. That's what it is, is that there are so many cases where I will be like if he on a quarterback and then his numbers will be better and I won't change my opinion on

them. People will ask me why. I'm like, well, when I watch him, he still effectively feels like the same player. When I watched Brock Purdy in 2004 compared to 2023, he was just a different player. Like, I thought he did a little bit better of hanging in the pocket and making throws. And that was always an element of his

game because it kind of has to be in a Shanahan offense. But he was having to hold onto the ball for longer and throw it deeper. And he did it very well. And I think even his creativity and his ability to scramble and get outside of the pocket was even better and more valuable than it had been in 2023. And obviously,

we talked about how valuable that was compared to Jimmy, but I think it really even took it up notch in 2024. So I really do think that their ability to maintain like top 10 level offense had a lot more to do with Brock Purdy than I really would have ever thought going into the season. I would again, getting back to the point about what you can access. I feel like last year was such a strong case for him and the plays that he can access. We know that he can do the Rolodex thing where it's just like, all right, here's one through five in the progression. Get it to the guy that's open. We've seen him do that before when teams are playing the night.

designers a certain way. I think he processes very well. I think he plays very quickly. Last year, you add to that aggressiveness, tight window throws that he's making, and increase effectiveness as a scrambler. He's accessing a lot of stuff.

He has the physical limitations of a guy drafted in the seventh round. But other than some of those physical limitations, just tools-wise, there are so many things to like about who he is as a quarterback. And you know the part of why I started to like him a little bit more? He is...

More like Dak Prescott than I thought. I was thinking of the exact same thing as I just got to the end of my point. And because here's the thing with Dak Prescott is I don't think Dak Prescott, and this applies to Brock Purdy as well, I don't think they are like that accurate of quarterbacks. Like you watch Brock Purdy, he misses a lot of throws. But because he's so willing to make the ones that are high value, he hits them often enough that it's like, okay, this is great. And obviously the receivers help.

George Kittle caught everything in his vicinity last year and certain stuff like that helps. But he is so willing to give his. guys chances and make the high value throws that even if he misses a couple here and there, it's like he's giving you the high value stuff often enough. It is interesting to think of all, like we're talking about all these guys. I'm obviously Brock because he was the last pick in the draft. And then Dak, like they're the two latest drafted quarterbacks in this conversation. Definitely.

And when you like, Stafford, Stroud, love, all these, like you can think of these sick Herbert, just amazing throws that Dak and Brock could never draw. dream of trying, right? Because they're just not talented like that. But they are so willing to just live in that world where they're just ripping something into a window that nobody has any business trying. And they do it repeatedly and usually with success. I don't know what that means. It's just interesting that the two day three picks are willing to live in that world. Yeah, because they don't have to play that way. Yeah. It is like a survival of the fittest type of thing where it's like they know that like if I the way, like if I just try to play standard and control the ball and all that stupid stuff,

like I'm, you're not going to be good enough and talented enough to do that. You kind of have to squeeze everything out of what you have. And so those guys are like, all right, I'm going to have to just trust that some throws are there sometimes. Even Brock Pretty, I think said that in an interview this off season. He was like, sometimes you don't see the throw. Like, you don't see the guy open. You just have to believe that it's going to be there and that he can make the play and that I can make the throw. And I think you see that when you, when you watch him play.

And I think very early, on when he took the job. I kind of ascribed a lot of that to just Shanahan. But the more you watch him play, and I think the more you watch him slightly adapt in some of these situations, I'm like, it's more Brock Purdy than I think I gave credit for it like a year ago.

So the other guy that I would throw in here because I do think that what he did last year reframes what I think he's capable of in some of these areas that are kind of non-negotiable when it comes to like elite quarterbacks in 2025 is Baker Mayfield. Like, I think that Baker Mayfield has a much stronger case to be in this conversation now than I would have said a year ago.

And it's for a lot of the stuff we talked about on the Baker segment we did with our lingering question shows. Two things I'll point out about Baker that felt different last year than he had ever been before. Baker led the league last year in dropback success rate when pressured. He was third in EPA per dropback when pressured behind Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. In that stat, okay, he was above average in 2023. But in 2022, he was dead last. He was bottom four in 2021.

he was bottom six in 2020 and he was bottom 10 in 2019. His ability to deal with pressure in the pocket. There's less of it because their offensive line is good. He was much better in those situations. And the other stat that I said before and I'll say again, only Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hertz, and Kyler Murray created more EPA on scrambles last year than Baker Mayfield. Like if Baker Mayfield is going to be able to do all of that stuff,

is Baker Mayfield more a part of this discussion than we're probably willing to admit or were willing to admit a year ago? my gut still tells me no like I still like there's something about reading Baker Mayfield and then putting the six next to him that I'm just like that feels incredibly wrong but I do think that like I think even early in last year when he started to look good

I think if you would have told me like that guy's going to be in the top 10 quarterback conversations I would have been like dude it's Baker Mayfield what are we doing here but now that we've gotten to the end of 24 24 if we if this was more of like who is quarterback 9 or 10 Baker Mayfield I think is absolutely in that discussion You know what's interesting to me is, like, you hear the term plot armor described a lot or used a lot for first round picks, number one overall picks.

Baker doesn't get any of that. You know, like, we haven't talked about them today, but like, Derek, you and I still believe in Trevor Lawrence. Like, there's a lot, like people typically will bend over backward to make excuses for a guy that was drafted highly and why you shouldn't give up. Is it because Baker is a physically unimpressive number one overall pick that might be it. I do not, I do not feel like he has ever gotten that benefit of the doubt. And I know, you know, it's why Bryce Young doesn't get it. Because he's not, he's not talented. I will say, though, not talented in the same way that.

Yeah, in the same way that like Trevor Lawrence or. Bryce's, the beginning to Bryce's career before he clicked midway through last year was so much worse than like most of what we've seen for Baker. Obviously, ironically, the Carolina stint for Baker was similar. That was really the only like terrible stress. off of Baker-Bafield, though. Without, it's pointless to relitigate it now, but like the swiftness with which Baker went from winning a playoff game with the Cleveland Browns to out of Cleveland,

still kind of blows my mind. And I don't, I don't absolve him completely for that, for his role in that, but it's still, it's, it's a little wild to me. And people talk about Baker as if there's no chance he could ever be that good,

when he is a number one overall pick who has, for the most part, been pretty good. And now that he is in a very nice situation in Tampa, he has been really, really good. And yeah, I mean, we talked about it already, Derek, but I'm going to be doing, you know, I'm going to be praying for Tristan Wirth's healthy recovery as often as I possibly can because I think this guy could be so high for Baker Mayfield with that offensive line. Graham Barton, year two jump candidate.

If Tristan Wurst is healthy, you add Emeka, Buka into what was already a very, promising receiver core. I'm super excited about Baker Mayfield. Maybe six is ambitious, but I feel comfortable saying he could, he could make a case for it if he keeps playing the way he's played since he got to Tampa. Absolutely. Yeah, I feel better about where he fits in that six to 15 range than I did before

last season. Obviously, that's, based on the numbers, that's not surprising. But I'll be curious what this season looks like for Baker. That's where I'll stand. Is he closer to the guy we saw in 2023, where he is a good? but not like scraping up against the top tier quarterback or he is, is he a guy that potentially is going to be knocking on that door more than we're quick to admit. And that's the thing.

I think he probably is more closer to 2023 Baker Mayfield, but like that's a border good player. That's a good player to have. You can have like a top eight offense if you, if the run game had been obviously that the run game that year was terrible. But you could theoretically have like a top eight offense with the way that Baker was playing in 2023. So if that's, if he falls and that's his level, like, you're very happy with that. It's just that version of him is probably not the sixth best quarterback in the league.

The last guy that I think is sort of adjacents to Baker Mayfield in these discussions that I think we have to mention is Jared Goff. I think Jared Goff is a good player. I think Jared Goff has been really good in that offense in Detroit. I really like watching Jared Goff play the position. But when we talk about what plays can you access, what answers do you have when things start to deteriorate a little bit? to me, Jared Goff among all the quarterbacks in this discussion is the most attached to his surroundings with what he can accomplish. He's done a fantastic job in good surroundings, but I think that he's the most susceptible to a change in performance if you were to change the situation among all of these guys, in my opinion. He's the gatekeeper for this class of quarterbacks.

He is like that if you are better than Jared Goff, you get to be in the, are you the sixth best quarterback conversation? If you're not better than Jared Goff, you don't get to. That to me is ultimately where it stands. Like, I think Jared Goff, again, in a league where every, I think every quarterback, you have the pockets clean if the throws there, a lot of these guys can really get to the throw that they need to. But I do think Jared Goff is probably like the best at it, truthfully right now. Like, if the throw is there and he believes in it, he is an incredibly accurate thrower. And so I do, I do think he has that. But again, it goes back to like, what can you access outside of the system, outside of yourself?

he just doesn't have a whole lot of that and he doesn't throw down the field very often like that's the other thing. The only quarterback who threw beyond, I think 20 yards less than Jared Gough last year was Gardner Minchu. That's it. And you know some of that is like,

Jameson Williams hasn't been the deep ball guy they wanted him to be. And there's not a lot of other guys in the offense who do that. But like at a certain point, you could create those throws if you wanted to and he just doesn't do that. It's a shame for Jared Goff that

being steady Eddie is overlooked. and like not all not always appreciated you know i'm like he's a good quarterback he has been the quarterback of a super bowl team of some very very good lions teams like clearly you can build a contender around jared goff but the limitations the lack of mobility like jared goff's highlights are always going to be him playing within structure and that's okay it is okay it's just not exciting and again i think that he was he's been much better against the blitz and against pressure over the last couple years than he had been before. And I think that that's just maturation as a player.

But I just think some of the limitations with what, again, what can he get to that some of these other guys can't? It's just a shorter list for Jared Goff. And I think that's why to me, just one step down for most of the other players that we've talked about. Right. He's a better version of himself now than three years ago. But I still think given his skill set,

there is a ceiling to his game compared to the other guys. This reminds me a little bit of the conversation we were having about Kirk Cousins, like two years ago. It's exactly the same thing, yes. I mean, his willingness to stand in the pocket, the toughness in the pocket, the decision-making the accuracy, he's a very good quarterback that you can win a lot of games with and win a Super Bowl with, but it's just one step down from these guys who are a little bit more creative. Do you think Jared Goff would be more appreciated if he wasn't sharing an era with all of these

Mech Warrior quarterbacks? Well, I think part of the problem is what happened was if we hadn't had the last two years, where now you're thrusting Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Brock Perkins. all of these guys into the discussion, Jared Goff would probably be like the seventh or eighth best quarterback in the league. But a lot of these younger guys have kind of come in and wedged out the tier that involves Jared Goff.

And to an extent, Baker Mayfield. Yeah. That's a really good point. We've had like two really insanely good classes in a row that have kind of pushed out the veterans who have finally like slowly climb into that tier. We've just had like five super exciting guys that are just like, ah, no, sorry, but.

That's kind of where I sit. The last two guys I'll mention here because I think that we could probably make an argument for them, I don't think we need to spend time doing it because it would be the most cliche football hipster internet thing to do is Gino Smith and Trevor Lawrence. I can make an argument for Gino Smith and Trevor Lawrence. I just, I feel like now is not the right time after last season. I'm going to make those arguments after this year, potentially. The Trevor one is like, I think if you put like three drinks in me really got to my heart to heart, so I get to convince myself that Trevor Lawrence is the

sick best quarterback i think when i'm sober and i can see it clearly i i can't get there but he is probably the one guy left on this list where it's like i truly want to believe that guy is still there i will i i would listen to gino before i listen to trevor and i like i think that's probably fair actually like gino has been better the last couple of years ago gino just had his uh 20 22 dac season where like just all the variance goes against great comparisons exactly right and so like i'm i'll buy all the stock you want in gino smith six six is a little rich, I'll at least listen to you. Trevor Lawrence, we're just, we're going on hopes and dreams and potential still. And I'm one of them. I'm one of them to be clear. I still believe in Trevor,

but I would be ashamed of myself to try to make that case into a microphone. Among all of the guys that I don't think you can make a real case for now, that you might be able to make a real case for a year from now, Trevor Lawrence is the top of that list. That's the best way to frame it. That's the best way of frame it is you can't make the case now, but if anyone a year from now, we're like that guy's there. It's, it's pretty, I still believe, but we've been saying that for quite a while. I, of course we have. I'll keep it. I listen, I'm not saying that we're going to be able to make it. I still have a candle lit, though. I still have a candle lit for the Trevor Lawrence we will see in the Liam Cohen offense. And if that's naive or foolish, whatever, I'm okay with that. It's more, it's more fun to dream, I think. I'm with you. It's a good place to end it. That is all we've got for today.

sincerely appreciate you guys joining us and hanging out for this discussion. We will be back tomorrow with the next athletic football show for now. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon.