The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Why did these eight teams flop in 2025?

Episode Date: December 30, 2025

The Lions, Chiefs and Ravens entered the 2025 season among the inner-circle Super Bowl favorites. The Lions and Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention before Christmas, and while the Ravens might still win the AFC North, they clearly are nowhere near what they were expected to be. The Falcons were supposed to take a step this year. Instead, they could be handing a top-10 pick to the Rams. The Bengals, Cowboys and Vikings were mostly afterthoughts all year, and the Colts suffered a dramatic second-half collapse. Where did things go so wrong for these eight teams this season? Robert Mays and Derrik Klassen dive deep into the octet on this episode of The Athletic Football Show.Connect with The Athletic Football ShowYT: https://www.youtube.com/@TAFootballShowPodcasts: https://podfollow.com/the-athletic-football-show/viewX: https://x.com/TA_FootballShowIG: https://www.instagram.com/tafootballshowTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tafootballshowDiscord: http://discord.gg/theathleticfootballshowCall us: 847-448-0701Email us: [e-mail]: Robert MaysCo-Host: Derrik KlassenExecutive Producer: Michael BellerVideo Producer: Katy DuffyAudio Producer: Michael BellerSocial Producer: Scott KrinchFollow Robert on Bluesky: @robertmays.bsky.socialFollow Derrik on Bluesky: @qbklass.bsky.socialFollow Robert on X: @robertmaysFollow Derrik on X: @QBKlassTheme song: HauntedWritten by Dylan Slocum, Trevor Dietrich, Ruben Duarte, Kyle McAulay, and Meredith VanWoert / Performed by Spanish Love SongsCourtesy of Pure Noise / By arrangement with Bank Robber Music, LLC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Slightly different Monday hangover for you guys this week. Talked about it a little bit last night. We're going to talk about some teams today that most of them are not going to make the playoffs and what that means. We're going to do a show a little bit later in the week about teams picking at the top of the draft and the silver linings associated with their seasons. It's a show we did last year. It's like a good way to kind of just close the book on teams that are not going to be in the playoffs.

but that was going to leave a group of teams that we weren't really going to talk about before the season ended. And I wanted to sit with those teams for at least a little bit. And so that's what we did today. Teams like the Lions, the Cowboys, the Bengals, the Colts, the Vikings, teams that maybe had playoff aspirations heading into the year but did not quite get there. Why didn't they get there? And what needs to change this offseason for them to get back to a place they feel good about heading into 2026? So that's what we did today with me and DeV's. Eric Klasson. Let's get to that conversation right now. Doing something a little bit different for,

I assume, I guess, are technically our second to last hangover show of the season, but we're also going to be doing something different next week. And so the common variance of the hangover shows is done for 2025 because I don't know, do we really need to spend that much time digging into Jets Patriots right now considering how much we already know about how the season is ending? I mean, if I just wanted to have fun for an hour and watch Drake, May, like, yeah, I'm sure that would have been great. Or like, Saints Titans going back to that and actually watching that, like, I'm sure that would have been fun. But again, we're kind of in a spot where it's like, in week 11, that would have been a little bit more instructive.

But at this point in the season, like, there's a little bit more things to cover. I alluded to this yesterday. So what we're going to do today is we're going to spend some time talking about the teams that are not picking in the top 10, but are not going to make the playoffs. And part of the reason I wanted to do this is that later this week, it was the show we were supposed to do last week when I was sick. We're going to do some silver linings for the teams picking in the top eight. And so I felt like I wanted to do something where we kind of put a period at the end of the sentence for every team that is not going to be in the playoffs pretty much. Just to have one final thought about what their 2025 season looked like before we turned the page and move on to the 14 teams in the postseason. So in my mind, this was kind of like a puzzle piece show with the silver linings for bad team show that we're going to do a little bit later in the week because their games weren't important down the stretch just because it seemed like they weren't going to make the playoffs.

but I think we should talk about the way the Colts season ended in sort of a big picture away, just as an example. And so that's what we're going to do today. We have like eight-ish teams. Some will spend a little bit more time on. Some will spend a little bit less time on just because there are some teams where it's like what went wrong and what needs to get fixed. It's a two-sentence answer.

And there are some that are a little bit more complicated as we dig into it here. Yeah, I'm excited to get into. And I think even some of the ones that might, I actually think an interesting experience I had going into some of the prep years that there were a couple of teams where it felt like it was going to be complicated going in and then I looked at it afterwards and I really did not feel like it was all that complicated. Some of these teams are teams that were supposed to be contenders before the year. Some of them are teams that had really good starts and then fell short.

It's kind of a mixed bucket, but I think all of them do fit into what we're trying to talk about today. So let's start with the Detroit Lions. And I think with each of these teams, the best question to kick these off with is what went wrong. Why did this team end up falling short of either their expectations or maybe the expectations we put on them coming into the season? Obviously, the Lions had top three, top four Super Bowl chances heading into the year. They are not going to make the playoffs. In your estimation, as you look back at the 2025 Lions, what in your mind is the culprit here as to why they fell short?

I mean, I think for them, it's, I think kind of three things. One, health on defense again, primarily in the secondary, just like getting decimated, for, especially like over the back half of the season, like they were just losing guys left and right. And I think they survived some of that last year and at certain points this year, but at a certain point, you just, you just are dipping into too many bodies. And then I think they did legitimately just get a little bit unlucky, like losing some of these games. Like they were still a very good team and just a couple of bounces at the end of some of these games didn't go their way. And sometimes that can hurt you when you're only like covering around 500. And then the big culprit is they just never sorted out the offensive line.

Like you had, the center was obviously the big issue in having to replace a guy like Frank Ragnow. You could feel the lack of not just like his individual play and his ability to move people and whatever it is. It's the put togetherness of the offensive line, both in the run game, in the passing game, the way that they could pick up stunts and stuff like that, being able to take a little bit off of Jared Goss play, which I just did, you just didn't feel like they were able to do that this year. And I think that was kind of exacerbated by the fact that the two guards next to the center were also young. players trying to like get their footing. You had a rookie right guard and a second year player and Christian Mahogany to his left side. Like it was just, it's a young unit with basically a replacement level center who was replacing, I don't know, like a Hall of Fame level center, like one of the best. It's just, it was a lot for them to put up with. And they were still a good

offense, but you've talked about this before. They still had a lot of the highs that they've had as an offense, but the lows were significantly lower than they've ever been. Yeah, we talked about it on a couple different shows, but I think it was a defense having at least a 60% defensive success rate. They had one of those games last year. They had eight of those games this year. And so even if you look at the season long numbers and they finished top 10 in a ton of different offensive metrics, it was just a lot more of a roller coaster ride for the offense overall. And you see some of that in the numbers individually, like just two things that I'll throw out as to why the offense felt a little bit different moment to moment game to game

than it did last year and even for stretches of 2023. Their rushing success rate overall drop from 44.5% to 39.5% over the course of the season. Their EPA per carry between last year and this year is the difference between being this year's Rams and this year's Falcons. So you go from being one of the best running teams in the league to a average running team. And that's a huge difference when you were built the way the lions are built. It's a massive gap between those two things. And I think sometimes, too, it was deceiving because it didn't always feel that way because Jemir Gibbs would rip off like two massive runs in a game.

And so you were like, oh, they're still moving it on people. But it was the down to down where they can't get into second and five the way that they used to and then kind of open up the playbook the way that they were used to before. Like that part of the offense was why you got more of the vacillations. And I think that leads to some inconsistency and volatility on third down. Their third down success rate per next gen goes from 49.5% last year to 39.8% this year. A 10 percentage point drop on third down. And so that's just why the offense feels a little bit more inconsistent.

You don't have the running, the offensive line to establish consistent runs on early downs. And then that puts you in some more third downs where you're in pure dropback pass. And that's not what this team is. And it's especially not what this team is when you have this version of the offensive line that they were dealing with all year. And you pointed out the young guards, Mahogany missed six games up to this point. So he was hurt and you have a rookie right guard. and then the left tackle, who has been a good player for a long time, it's just clear that he's dealing with lingering injuries.

He had off-season shoulder surgery. He's talked about the fact that he wasn't really at 100% and we'll see what his future looks like. And so I think that all that stuff on offense, and like you mentioned, the defensive injuries is just, I mean, they're absolutely decimated. You're watching them late in the season. Avanti Maddox is playing free safety for this team.

Like, there's only so much you can do. He was their backup nickel in weeks. Yes. There's only so much you can do when you're down to safety like four and five. You're playing with backup corners for most of the season. You know, your nickel. Amik Robertson is now playing outside again. And then I think the defensive front overall, if you just look at the personnel of that group,

Al-Qadine Muhammad had a really nice season for this team kind of out of nowhere. He was really good in the back half of last year and he kind of continued that into this season as like a nice complimentary piece. But other than that, they really. really didn't have much from a pass rush perspective outside of Aden Hutchinson. You know, Lee McNeil comes back after getting hurt last year. He does not look like the same guy in year one after that injury. We'll see what he looks like after a full off season to get healthy.

But overall, there just was not enough juice in the pass rush across the board. You have defensive injuries that are just decimating you in the secondary. And the offense just was much more inconsistent, I think, in part because of the offensive line. And then I do think that when you have brain, drain with your coaching staff and you're having to replace that. Like, we can talk about Dan Campbell and the numbers for the offense with Dan Campbell all that we want. The offensive coordinator got like quiet fired halfway through the season.

Like that's not what you want. That's not ideal even if the results were never that bad. And so if I'm trying to figure out all of the buckets for the lions, those are probably the ones that I would land on. Yeah, it was a little bit of everything. And like there's a chance that with like the diminished offensive line and some of the injuries like Sam LaPorte hasn't played in six or seven weeks like that's the other area of injuries the tight end room is just gone.

The entire tight end is gone. Yep. Like the whole tight end and like this was I know that Jameson Williams and Ammon Ross St. Brown and Jemir gives like get a lot of the run. But a lot of what they want to do is like being 11 and 12 and use their tight ends, move them all around the formation, do cool stuff with them. The fact that that has not been on the board for most of the holiday season has been, I think, a huge issue for them.

Like I think even if they have that, they probably. win one more of these games and get into the playoffs. Like it really does feel like, I think more than some of these other teams, like it was just a lot of different factors coming together for the Lions, which to maybe jump ahead a little bit, I think of all the teams that we're talking about, I think the team that I feel the most fine about other than maybe defaulting to the Chief. So you have Patrick Mahomes is the Lions. Like I still think they're a pretty damn good team and they're going to be just fine.

So let's talk about what the early offseason questions look like for the Lions. And we'll do these for every team, just kind of thinking about what. needs to happen for them to get back where they want to get. I think the first question I would ask you, what do we think happens with the coordinator spots? Because in my mind, you and I have talked about this. I think Calvin Shepard did a good job early in the season when his guys were relatively healthy.

I can't, I think making a change there would be kind of a rash decision based on how hurt they were on defense this year. So whether they think he should be back or not, I feel like Kelvin Shepard probably deserves to be back. And I do have faith in what that defensive staff can do with better. health, I think the question is going to be what happens with the offense? Do they seek somebody outside of the building? Do they promote somebody from within? What do they think they need when it comes to sorting out that offensive staff a year after moving on from the offensive

coordinator halfway through the season? I don't know the answer to that because last time they went outside of the building, sort of. He had been on the staff before. That didn't work. So where do they seek out the answer this time? I am also curious to that. Defense, I think, yeah, you don't even really think about touching it. Like, Shepard, when he had talent to work with, looked like he was going to be one of those, those up-and-coming defensive coordinators. So I'm excited to see what he can continue to build on.

Offensively, I'm just curious, like, if they want any sort of shake-up, like if they want some sort of new ideas. But I almost wonder if they, like, do they try to go poach somebody from Sean Payton staff or something? Because obviously Dan Campbell has some familiarity with him. Like, I'm guessing that's kind of the range that they want to, they want to go for.

That's interesting. me and Connor O'R talked a lot about Davis Webb and the coaching candidates show that we did and the idea of him being like a potential head coaching candidate despite not being an offensive coordinator yet and so you could potentially poach somebody like that if for a promotion. weren't him and Jared Goff the same?

No, I guess Webb was like a year or two after. But I was just trying to think about how old he is compared to Jared Goff, but I think they're very similar. I'll be curious where they kind of seek that out. And then when you're looking at the personnel specifically, just some kind of housekeeping, they have said, $6 million in cap space right now. And they have a couple obvious restructure candidates.

St. Brown, Sewell, golf is a $69 million capette next year. And so I assume they would be open to touching that based on the way that they structured the contract, but we'll see. So they have some levers they can pull to create a little bit of flexibility. And they need it because they do have some areas of need that I think do have to be addressed. Like I'll be curious to see what the interior offensive line moves look like. at the very least, I think you need to be drafting a center somewhere, even if it's a plan for the future. I'm fine with them rolling with the guards again and just hoping that with another year

of development and better health, those guys will be okay. But I think somewhere along the way you need to bolster the offensive line, we'll see what happens, or the interior of the offensive line, we'll see what happens with Decker? I mean, if he's gone, then what are you going to do at offensive tackle? They traded up for Giovanni Manu last year, or two years ago. He had one start this year. He was kind of their developmental guy that they were going to, I think, try to bring along, hopefully becoming maybe the answer after Decker. He had one start this year to not go very well. And then he's been hurt for a majority of the year. And then positionally, the other spot where I just think they need some help is Edge. Like, Akkaddin Muhammad is a free agent.

Marcus Davenport is a free agent. Like instead of trying to piece that thing together, do you hope that with a real commitment to that spot, McNeil being a year healthier, Ty Weak Williams being a year older and still having eight and a hundred? Hutchinson with some better health on the back end, isn't that enough for you to feel good about the personnel top to bottom? Really quickly, can I ask if they are, let's just say in this world that they are solving two of those problems with the draft and one of them with money and free agency, which is the one that you would most want them to solve with money?

I think it's center. I think you want a veteran who's like done this and like proven he can start. And they're all, they're really only going to be like three free agent options potentially at center. There's Connor McGovern is coming up. and then both Carolina guys actually. So I assume Carolina will retain one, but then you can get either Austin Corbett or Cade Mays.

I think it both played well at certain points this year when they've had to. Kate Mays is an interesting name. I really wasn't impressed by him when he had to come in and kind of play in spot duty earlier this year. And so I think that's a good thought. But those are the positions I'd probably say need addressing. And when you look at this team overall, I just think that what's happened in the draft

over the last couple of years is worth bringing up when you consider the fact that they do have some holes in some of these spots, and they've been pretty aggressive with some of the moves that they've made in the draft, and they've had some swings and misses. And this happens all the time. And this isn't even like an indictment of this team, but we just have it in our heads that these teams who get off to these hot starts, these regimes that get off to these hot starts in the draft,

it's just the line's just going to go up forever. They're just going to be good at this forever. And that's just rarely how it works. You're going to hit cold spells. I mean, that first draft that they have, with Sewell and I'm on Ross St. Brown is like a transformational draft for the organization. Those just don't really happen every year.

So the last couple seasons, you know, you have Ennis Rakeshaw on the second round and he just hasn't played at all. Terry and Arnold is a guy they traded up for in the first round. He hasn't been what they wanted him to be. The Terry and Arnold one to me is very telling of where we are right now. So they trade up to get Terry and Arnold in the first round of the 2024 draft. They trade away a third round pick in doing that.

The third round pick that they traded away, the Cowboys used to draft Connor Beebe. And five picks after the Lions traded or drafted Terry and Arnold, the Ravens picked Nate Wiggins. That's a tough double whammy. That stuff just happens. And that's why when you're trading away some of these mid-round picks, it can come back to get you.

They traded away a future third-round pick to go up and get Monu in that draft, a 2025 third-round pick. They traded away a third-round pick for Carlton Davis. They traded two-third-round pick. picks the move up for Isaac Tesla. I mean, this is, you start to feel this when you get off of a heater in the draft. And I think they'll probably be fine. But I think that's just kind of the reality that we're wrestling with now with this team, where it just seemed like they would stay hot forever because

of how the first couple draft, the first couple drafts with this regime went. I think too, like, the last thing I'll say is burning so many mid-round draft picks to like trade up and move around when you are a team that if anything has plagued you over the last three, years is basically just been depth. It's kind of a funny way to operate, I thought. Especially when you know you're going to be paying a lot of these guys very soon, you know, and you're going to need some of that cheap cross-control talent. And the other thing I think is worth mentioning before we move on, just when it comes to the defensive injuries, two questions that I think are worth bringing up. One, is this just going to be how it is? Like, it's been two years

in a row. Like, sometimes when you, certain ways that you practice, the way that certain teams construct things. Some teams are more injury prone than others. Is this going to be a consistent problem? Maybe not. Maybe it's a two-year blip, but I think it's at least worth asking the question. And then the other one related to that, how long did the injuries linger? Like, Brian Branch tore his Achilles.

How quick does Brian Branch come back as the player that we've seen him be? And that's really important. Kirby Joseph has this lingering knee injury. Like, how long does this linger? Is Kirby Joseph the same player? And so beyond whether you're going to be hurt again in 2026 are the guys that were hurt. this year going to be the same players in 2026. I think that's at least worth keeping in the back of your mind when it comes to this team.

Let's get to the next one here. The Dallas Cowboys ultimately fall short, even though it seemed like their playoff chances, had a brief glimmer of hope there about midway through the season. In your mind, what went wrong for the 2025 Dallas Cowboys? I mean, it's the defense. This is one of the ones that we can spend like five minutes on. I mean, they are just, it's, they don't have talent and they're too bland in a lot of the coverages that they play.

Like that is kind of the spark notes version of it. And like, I think if you look at the front, you can squint and they've got a couple of good players. Obviously, once they make the trade for Quentin Williams and stuff like that. But the cornerback room, Chavon Ravelle was hurt for a lot of the early part of the season because he was coming off an injury. And really, I don't think has been that good in what he's been able to play this year. Trayvon Diggs, I don't think has looked very good. Kair Elyleon played like half of this team's coverage snaps. I don't think he's been very good.

Tricwezzi Bridges and Kaelin Carson have started multiple. multiple games for this team. And then I think the safeties have not played all that well. So like the back end of this unit really just does not have like high level NFL caliber talent. And then I think in terms of the coverages they play, they play a lot of single high stuff. They play a lot of zone because that's what Iber Fluse likes to do. And then even when they play some of their two high stuff, it's almost all covered two.

Like he doesn't play as much quarters or as much cover six as other teams. Like it's not varied. And so when a quarterback sees split safety, it's like, ah, it's cover two. I know how to pick this apart. There's not as much, like if the chargers are in split safety, it could be any number of coverages. Same with the Eagles. The Raven seems like that. It's a little bit more vanilla with a team like the Cowboys.

Yeah, this is not a complicated one. They finish dead last. The season is not over. They are currently dead last in defensive DVOA in a season where the Bengals had been historically bad for two-thirds of the season. That tells you a lot about where the Cowboys are right now. Offensively, I really have no qualms with where the team is and where the team should be going. I think that side of the ball, we can handle this in like 10 seconds. I think you should bring George Pickens back in some way, shape, or form.

And then the offensive line essentially comes back intact, all five of those pieces. It's a disappointing thing for Tower Guyton to be as hurt as he was this year. He comes into the season hurt. I think he misses overall, it's going to be like seven games. It's just tough for a second year player's development, especially a second year player who has tools, but it's still a little bit rough around the edges. But overall, I think the outlook for the offensive line looks very, good. And I think you have the weapons that you need. This is a team that right now is seventh and weighted

offensive DVOA, the fifth and EPA per play on offense. I think the future is very bright on that side of the ball. This is all about fixing the defense. The questions become, how do you do that? So they're $45 million over the cap as it currently stands. I think they likely cut Trayvon Diggs. That saves him about $12 million. They would save $21 million by moving on from Kenny Clark. I don't know what they end up doing with that. That feels like if you want to give him like an extension of some kind to get that cap number down rather than cutting him, that might be an option. And then obviously they can restructure DAC and CD who have these massive base salaries in order to give them a little bit of wiggle room. Because they do need that wiggle room. You need some money for pickings. And then like you said,

how many new starters in the back seven do you think this team should have next year? They're not going to be able to change them all. But like, I think, I think. you could make a case that basically all of them except for what maybe to ron bland i think i think i would like to see one more season with ravelle because it's a young player where he's a young player who came into the season hurt other than that i think you can make a you could argue like five and maybe overshone maybe overshone but like he's coming off the injuries and stuff but like at least four the answer is at least four you need at least one linebacker body you probably need a new nickel corner and i think you could make an argument that you need at least

two dice rolls at safety. Donovan Wilson, his contract is up after this year. Malie Cooker is going to be 30. You just need more pop at that position. So I think at least like four-ish new starters in the defensive backfield are necessary for this team. And I think the next question becomes who is calling the defense? And what sort of ideas do you seek out? Because I think Matt Iberfuss is probably a fine defensive coordinator with the right personnel. You didn't have the right personnel. And so, So I think even if you can make an argument that this team was ill-equipped to give him a real shot this year, nobody's going to be hammering you if you decide to move in a different direction after the way that this thing went.

Yeah, nobody's going to see like Matt Iberflus hired elsewhere and be like, man, how did we let him walk? Like, it'll probably be fine. I would like to see them take a dice roll at defensive coordinator for sure. I'd be curious to see what they do. You know, we mentioned, do you want to bring in a guy who has a little bit more fluency and some, man with a history of like playing a little bit more man and being a little bit more aggressive you know a couple of the names like al harris is an interesting name and he's the db's coach for the bears right now obviously he was the db's coach and the passing game coordinator for the

bears right now he was the db's coach for the cowboys for several years so i think that he would be able to tap into a defensive identity that lines up more with who you were a couple years ago when that defense looks significantly better but just somebody like that i feel like that's probably set of ideas that's worth seeking out. The other thing that's worth mentioning with this team when it comes to filling the holes that they have on defense or elsewhere, no second or third round pick this year for the Cowboys.

Wow, that actually does complicate things a little bit. They traded the second round pick as part of the Quinn and Williams trade. A reminder, the Quinn and Williams trade was not free. No. He's great, but he's a really good player. He's not free. He gave up a lot to get Quinn and Williams. Second round pick this year, first round pick in 2027,

and then they traded their third round pick for pick. seconds. And so they have a first round pick and then they have two fourth round picks. Those are their main draft assets of this year. And that's particularly complicated by the fact that even if they had some wiggle room financially, if they're going to restructure some of these deals, we know this team does not spend a lot of money in free agency. So how much they're willing to leverage themselves, how aggressive they're willing to be to fill some of these holes, I think that will be a curious thing to watch this spring. I hope they trade back and acquire some more bites at the apple because the defense, you just,

you need too many to not do something like that. Yeah, the defense has a long way to go. You hope that a different set of ideas defensively can help you get some of the way there. But I think the personnel pretty clearly on that side of the ball is not good enough and that's what needs to get handled. I still, just for the record, I do have like some multi-year hope for this team specifically because of how good the offense looked this year. We've seen defensive turnarounds in one single season.

Like them going from the worst defense in the league to a league average defense if they hit on enough of the right stuff this offseason, it's not out of the question whatsoever. And if that happens and your offense can stay up near like a top five to seven offense the way that it was this year because you bring everybody back, I do have some faith that that version of the Cowboys can actually unfold over the next like 12 months. If two of those back-in changes work,

and like DeMario and Overshone looks healthier next year. And then whoever you bring in as the coordinator has some new ideas, some fresh stuff, that can be enough to make you the 20th best defense. And that's enough if you can score 32 points a game. All right. Let's take our first quick break here and then come back with the AFC version of the Cowboys. All right. Next one here, I put these teams next to each other for a reason.

The Cincinnati Bengals, what went wrong for the 2025 Cincinnati Bengals, Derek? Bella, can you just replay the last like seven minutes that we were just talking about? It's basically the same conversation on top of the quarterback got hurt. Right, and the quarterback got hurt. That's really the only difference. Otherwise, it's mostly the same stuff. So obviously Joe Burrow misses a majority of the season. And I do think with Burrow, there is a little bit of like, this keeps happening to him.

And I do think that that is a little bit of a concern when we want to think about the future. Just like he's a guy who's consistently been banged up. And I think when you are banged up all the time, it can be just hard to like stay in the flow and stay in the rhythm of things. and then you just worry, is he going to miss five games next year? Or is there going to be something in the off season? And so I think there's that element of it. But I think most of that would probably be washed over if the defense wasn't legitimately all-time bad for like three months this year. And they kind of picked it up at the end, but they were as bad as they could have been for three months.

I really like how the offense kind of came together in the back half of the season because one of the things I was most worried about after Burrow got hurt is that the running game and the offensive line, in like the month after that happened looked atrocious. They were so, so bad running the ball in that initial stretch after Burrow got hurt. And then they really did kind of click into something in the back half of the season. It wasn't overwhelming by any stretch, but this was an above average running game in the back half of the year. And that is really all you need to be if you're going to have Joe Burrow and those weapons. And so I think the offensive line, we'll see what happens with the interior guys.

like Jalen Rivers is a fifth round pick. You know, he potentially could be their starter right guard next year if they end up rolling with that. I still feel like seeking out one more piece along the interior of the offensive line probably wouldn't be a bad idea. But other than that, I think that what we've seen from them offensively when Joe Burrow has been healthy is more than enough for you to feel good about that side of the ball. This is all going to be about what needs to happen on defense and where they need to seek out some of these new pieces. And they have $70 million in cap space to try to accomplish something. of that. They need to do, I mean, kind of what they did in, what was it, maybe 2020, was they just

threw a bunch of, like, mid-level free agent contracts at guys who can, like, can you just play for us and be okay? And I really think that them, like, running back that game plan would make a lot of sense to me because I think I understand the front is kind of a different consideration because they have thrown a lot of resources at that, right? Like first-round picks on Miles Murphy, Shamarst Stewart, they're not giving you a whole lot of anything. Trey Hendrickson has been hurt for a lot of this year. He's a free agent. And he's a free agent. Right. All right. So he's not even going to come back.

Probably. I don't know what their whole situation with that. Who the hell knows at this point? Yeah. At this point, I've given up on like, how do they want to reconcile that marriage, all that stuff? I don't really care. We'll cross that bridge in February or March or whatever. But then the back seven is like, that's where I think you need to be willing to pay for some of those mid-level free agents because the linebackers were, I know they were rookies. They were young guys. and you might want to see them play a little bit more. They need competition. Like that was the worst linebacker room probably in the league this season.

I don't really think the safeties were any better. And then the corners, like there's some, like Dax Hill can cover a little bit. DJ Turner can cover a little bit. I'm still a little bit worried about them tackling, which puts the onus on like the linebackers and the safeties really need to be better at it. Or this is going to be a problem. I'll be curious how much turnover they think they need in the back seven. Because I'm with you.

At linebacker, the way that I had it is you assume one of the linebackers or you hope one of the linebackers progresses to a point where he's a significantly better player next year. And that really, to me, doesn't feel like wishcasting. Like we see that happen at linebacker all the time. It's a really difficult position to be good early. And so can you see some development from a Demetrius Knight to the point where you feel good about him next year? Even if that's the case, you still probably need a little bit more competition there. The defensive line specifically, both Hendrickson and Joseph Osier, hitting free agency. So you probably need one more body on the edge, which is frustrating because,

like you said, you have two first round picks at those two edge spots, but I'm not sure you could walk into next year with those two guys being your starters and feel like you've done enough. The back seven is where you need the most attention. And I think the biggest difference between this and 2020 when they spent all that money, there just aren't a lot of guys available in free agency right now. That's continuing to be the trend. Like I was looking at the free agent to where it's like, okay, I think this would make sense. This would be a guy worth spending money on. Here's like six names that I came up with at positions that I think they need bodies.

Quincy Williams, Eric Wilson, Quentin Lake, Jalen Thompson, Brian Cook, John Franklin Myers. I think only half of those really inspired any, like sparked any joy on my side. It's a pretty dire group of second contract free agents specifically. And the guys that I felt most excited about on that list are guys like Quincy Williams and John Franklin Myers, just because they need ass kickers. Like this is a defense that so badly needs physicality that I think trying to fill it out with those sorts of veterans at the right price is not necessarily the worst path forward. But they need at least one starter at linebacker, at least one starter at safety, probably another edge piece and then probably some sort of corner somewhere along the way if you like to keep Dax Hill in the nickel when you're healthy enough to do that. that. So there's a ton of turnover that needs to happen at those spots. Anything else about the Bengals? Again, it feels like this is a pretty simple one.

Now, this is mostly it. I mean, I'll for the 9,000 time make my rant of like, if I'm going to complain about anything with the offense, I would still like to see them more under center. But I think part of that was like Joe Burroughs health this year, so I'll give them a little bit of a pass. But if I'm going to nitpick a little bit, it was probably that. Our next one here are the Indianapolis Colts. A slightly different situation than some of the other teams that we're going to talk about. Obviously, the Colts didn't come into the season with championship aspirations. We didn't expect them necessarily to be a playoff team, but they were a playoff team halfway through the year and then completely bottomed out. And so I do, I did want to

have sort of a considered conversation about the Colts before we ended this season because we really haven't had much of one as they've hit this skid in the back half of the year. Essentially, what happened to the Colts, what went wrong? Everything after the sauce gardener trade went as poorly as it possibly could have gone. Like that's not an exaggeration. Everything went as poorly as it could have gone. Literally everything, because they were like pretty healthy as a team up until that.

But obviously you trade for sauce, he gets hurt. Right around when you trade for sauce, Daniel Jones, like chips his leg breaks his leg basically, but plays through it. And then snaps his Achilles on the other leg because he's obviously overcompensating for it.

And then even after that, like even when we've had this Philip River, stretch, they've been missing a lot of linemen like Bernard Raymond has missed time. Braden Smith has missed time. The whole line last week. Yes. It's everyone but Quentin Nelson basically is like fight for their lives and like not out there. And so like that has been a problem. You got Matt Gonzalez moving around like filling in it right tackle, which he's been playing right guard for a lot of this year. Like it's been

pretty much everything on that side of the ball. And then the defense was when they signed Charverius Ward and when they traded for sauce Gardner, the idea was. that we can be some, we don't have to do the bullshit funky Brian Flores stuff on defense. We can just man up on people. Traveri's ward has missed a lot of the season and Soss Gardner has missed a lot of the time that he's been there. So they're back to doing a lot of some of the funky stuff with a front four that is not good enough, especially when DeForest Buckner has not been in the game.

And then the secondary just doesn't give those guys enough time to get home. Like it's just been, I still think Anarumo is a decent play caller, but I think the cupboard, especially with some of the injuries, has just ended up more bare than it looked like it should have. Well, let's talk about the offense first and about the future at quarterback first, because obviously this is going to be the biggest question. When they made the Soss Gardner trade, I'll admit that I got caught up in the excitement of it a little bit. The downside case for it, I understand that it's there. But this whole thought of by making that trade, you're essentially committing yourself to Daniel Jones. In the moment, that didn't seem like the worst fate to me,

simply because where else were you going to find a quarterback over the next offseason and maybe two off seasons if you were going to be picking like 23rd in the draft? Even now, when you're picking 18th in the draft, where were you going to find a quarterback? So the thought of them giving Daniel Jones some version of the mid-to-year quarterback contracts that we've seen handed out, whether it's the Darnel contract, the Baker contract, the Gino contract, all of that, that felt like a reasonable end point to me because you probably wouldn't have a path to get anybody better. And I think there's a conversation to be had about this. The Colts are not the historically good offense they were over the first eight weeks of the season.

I also don't think they're a bad offense. I think with a healthy Daniel Jones, they probably sort out somewhere in the back half of the top 10. And I think that's probably okay. So the only thing that could really throw a wrench into this is if you didn't have an option to play this version of Daniel Jones in 2026 as part of this. overall formula, and then he tears his Achilles, and that's exactly what happens. That's the scary thing. I can understand why they would have thought, yeah, because the Daniel Jones thing was always going to come back to Earth, but it might not have come back down to Earth to

like where he's the 24th best quarterback and this offense sucks again. He probably, like you would have said, they would have been like the eighth or ninth best offense in the league. Maybe you get a couple more negative plays, but Jonathan Taylor is still ripping off explosives. Alec Pierce is like randomly the best 50-50 guy in the league again and like has a lot more to his game. Like you would have been a still very good offense even with like it would have been like you know, you talked about it a lot. What the bucks had accomplished for a lot of the time that Baker was there where it's like is he as good as the offensive rank? Probably not. But you can

get there with a guy like him. But it was probably going to fall apart a little bit next year just because Daniel Jones at the end of the day like is still Daniel Jones. But I think now the fact that he's hurt, that's the real complicating factor of it. Because I don't think you can go into next season with just Daniel Jones. Like it's, there's no, or even thinking going into next season like, oh, when he gets healthy, he'll be that guy again. What proof do we have that that's going to be the case? Like a guy who's relied on his mobility to some degree, it's probably going to hurt when

he doesn't have his Achilles next year. We've seen it with quarterbacks consistently over the last couple of years. Those guys after the year after they tear that Achilles, they do not look the same. And so if you're not confident that he's going to be even the version of Daniel Jones, kind of the middle outcome version of Daniel Jones that we saw this year, that's a scary thing. And so who plays quarterback for the Colts next year? Is it Anthony Richardson who is still under-contracted on the roster?

Do they have to seek something else out? Like, that's the scariest part of this. I do think that the Achilles injury legitimately changes the multi-year outlook for this thing. And we'll see what happens. Like, are they a team, I said it, last night? Are you the team that maybe takes like a swing on a guy like Malik Willis because you think that he can get, you there because I agree with you. I just am not sure you can go into next year resigning Daniel

Jones and thinking that'll be enough when there's a chance that you just burn an entire season by doing that. That part would be scared to me. I'm also, I'm just fascinated by like the politics of the Anthony Richardson thing now. Like if he comes in and like what does that look like if he plays okay? Like I just all of that starts to get really fascinating to me. But if they don't sign anybody like Richardson would end up having to play games. There's just no way Daniel Jones is going to be ready for the start of the season. When you look at the coaching staff, there's been some kind of noise about whether the way that the back half of the season went is enough for Shane Steichen to lose his job.

That to me seems incorrect. Like, I just think if you look around the league right now and you see the value in a high-level play caller and you see the value in a guy who is, even capable of doing what Shane Steichen did for the first half of the year. There aren't that many of those guys. And I get that the final results over the last few years are not where you want them to be as an organization. You have new ownership.

It's the same family, but you have new people in charge of making these decisions. Is it possible that they want a clean house and start over just as a way to turn the page? Maybe. But right now, I would just be surprised if they thought that moving on from a guy that is capable of doing what Shane Steichen did for a majority of this season is worth it when so many teams around the league would like sell a body part to have an offensive play caller as good as Shane Steichen. And that's the thing in this cycle. Like who else like there's just not as many coaching candidates. It feels like you are going to get super jazz to hire. Whereas last,

last cycle you had like, I think people were excited about Mike Frable about Ben Johnson. I think there was a little bit more like questions about Liam Cohen. But I think people really did think that he could be one of those like electric play callers and like it just doesn't. There's not even a Liam Cohen in this cycle. No, there's not, especially on offense. Like I think there are some defensive guys that you can get, get pretty excited about. But if teams are, and I think a lot of them do tend to be like really want one of those offensive guys, you're probably a lot better off just keeping Stuyken, who I think has mostly acquitted himself quite well, even if this year didn't end well. Like I know some of the previous years didn't end well either, but like getting to the playoffs or being

one play away from the playoffs with Garderman. you is a pretty impressive feat in my mind. And I know that that was like two or three years ago, but I think he's mostly done his job on that side of the ball. We'll see what they do with the offensive personnel. I think the big couple questions for me outside of quarterback, which is really the only question that matters yet again. I just cannot believe we're going to another offseason where it's going to be like,

who plays quarterback for the Colts? I would be losing my mind if I were a fan of this team. I would be losing my mind. The two other positions that I think are worth considering. Braden Smith is a free agent at right tackle. They have Jalen Travis, who's been playing for them a little bit in the back half of this season after some injuries. He's a fourth round pick. He's now banged up as well.

I assume they're going to try him out there. This team deserves a lot of benefit of the doubt for them being able to develop these mid-round picks into starters. I don't know how many times you can consistently do that. Like if Jalen Travis ends up starting at right tackle for the Colts next year, you have a third round pick at left tackle. Who hit, you know, totally understand that. You have whatever a Bordellini was, I think a fourth. round pick. You have Gonzalez at right guard, who was a mid-round, a day two, a third-round pick. And then you have Jalen Travis is a fourth-round pick. And so it's just a lot of like mid-round

picks along your offensive line that we don't typically see. Listen, maybe they do it again. But it just that's what this team has done for a very long time. And then the other one for me, what do you do with Pierce? I, I kind of think you have to bring him back. Like, he's playing well enough that I would do what I needed to do to make sure he was on the team next year. He, He's your most explosive and versatile player. He, like, he is. Like, he can win down the field and still. He's really good.

Yes. He, like, he used to just be the, like, he's going to run a slot fader. He's going to run a goal ball, a deep post, and you can chuck it up to him. He's still really good at that. But he is also very good now at winning over the middle of the field. Every now and then he can win some of those one-on-one routes on on the outside. He's their best big body. Like, I just, I would want to keep him around.

Like, I think a lot of the other, we talked so much about, like, how a lot of the other pieces really fit well in this offense because they're so complimentary. I think if you pull him out, that's like a pretty significant jangle block to be pulling out of this thing. I'm with you. Pittman makes $29 million against the cap next year. Be curious to see what happens with that. He's a good player, but...

If you have to pick one, I would rather find a way to move Pittman and keep Pierce rather than, you know, move on from Pierce, let him walk and then keep Pittman at that line. I tend to agree. And we'll see what they end up doing if they're forced to make that decision. On the other side of the ball, the Charverius Ward question is a real one.

I mean, the concussion history at this point, I mean, he had several this year. He's on IR again. What ends up happening with that? And I think part of the reason that if you needed to move on from him next year, they were really excited about Justin Wally coming into this season, their third round pick. He ends up tearing his ACL. He's going to be on the team next year and you still have sauce. And so it's possible that you have those two spots solved.

The question for me is, what do they do along the defensive line? Because like you said, especially with the Forrest Buckner banged up, This team was 26th in pressure rate over the back half of the season. Quitty Pay is hitting free agency. Samson actually Ebukam is hitting free agency. J2, Talamalo did not play that much this year. And so I don't know if you'd feel comfortable rolling into next year as him as your other starting edge opposite LATU.

But just and even on the interior, Buckner is 30. Grover Stewart's going to be 33, I think. So just some sort of new piece or two along the defensive line, I think, has to be part of the equation for this team this off season. Yeah, outside of Latu, like, they just don't have a lot of juice. And I think Latu's good. He's probably not like an ace. I think like he's ideally to me like a really high end number two.

And so when he's clearly your best guy, like they need to add, I think a bunch more bodies. It's funny. You mentioned like with the offensive line, they've so consistently been able to throw third and fourth round picks and get those guys to convert. They've tried that at defensive end to basically no avail. Like it's a lot of like late first or second round picks, third round picks. and a lot of them are like fine guys off the bench, but really not difference makers in any sort of way.

No, it just hasn't happened for them. I mean, there's been a lot of that, and they just haven't found that, like, true, I'm worried about that guy each and every game player on the edge. That just hasn't happened for them yet. I think that you feel that when you watch this defense play. Next one here, the Minnesota Vikings. Again, obviously a weird case where I don't know if they were contenders coming into the season

because they had a first year quarterback, but this is a team that won a shitload of games last. year, I think did come into the season with playoff aspirations. They're going to fall short, even though they've climbed their way back to eight and eight here. In your mind, what went wrong for the 2025 Minnesota Vikings? I mean, this one's also simple to me. The quarterback situation was dreadful.

And part of that is J.J. McCarthy struggled, I think, especially early on in the season. I think he did not play very well. But then he was just hurt and he missed a bunch of games. They had to turn to Carson Wentz, who at this stage in his career is not giving you a whole lot and then having to turn through any team having to turn to their third string quarterback who is also a very young player like undrafted like you're just it's not going to be what you want on that side of the ball and i know that we've had a lot of fun with like oh kevin o'connell can get a couple of these fun games out of like josh dobs and it's like that's you don't want to live that way

no you that you don't want to be doing that's fun every now and then you you don't want to be having that for dinner every day and so i think that that was kind of what they ultimately ran into And then I think even though the run game had some life at certain points this season, I do think we came into this thinking that if they were going to be the offense that we really wanted them to take the next step and be like a 12, 13 win team again, it was going to have to be off the back of like the offense really setting things up with the run game and the play action game for J.J. McCarthy. And they're better than they were last year. I was wondering if they could hit a ceiling that was a little bit closer to dominant. And it just never felt like they got there.

And I know that they were banged up for certain stretches, but still. The quarterback play overall, I think, is the first thing that you have to point to and just really the struggles of the offense. So they had eight games this year, the Vikings did offensively, with an EPA per play of negative 0.14 or worse. Just for context, that's about in the range of what a typical Geno Smith or Justin Fields dropback was this year. They had eight of those games.

They lost six of those games. Some of that, like you said, is the quarterback play. Some of it is the quality. and health of the offensive line. You had six missed games for Derisaw, and he was banged up even when he was playing, which that's something to maybe even think about heading into the future.

What are you going to get from him moving forward? Because he did not look like the same guy for a good chunk of this year. You had seven missed games for Ryan Kelly, and you had a handful of miss games for Brian O'Neill. And so what was supposed to be a strength of this team didn't end up becoming a strength, and I think that is something that might have to be addressed

in some way, shape, or form next off season. You probably need a long-term center, whether that's in the draft or free agency, and this team needs tackle depth. This team needs some contingency plans to tackle in a way that they did not have this year. So that's what's going on on offense. And then on defense, I still feel pretty good about this. Like where they got by the end of the season, this team is third and weighted defensive DVOA. Third.

It was not as consistent game to games. It's been for the last couple years, I think in part because of injuries, in part because of what you're dealing with with the quality of. the offense game to game. But overall, even with a couple of these guys hitting free agency and with the defense getting a little bit older, I still feel pretty good about where that unit is

going to be if they can manage to convince Brian Flores to come back. That's where I'm at too. Like I know that the defense, and this probably, this contributes to the record not getting where they wanted to be with the defense being a little bit more hit and miss, I think for the first half of the season. But this is ultimately like if we're trying to project forward, I still feel very, very good

about where Brian Flores is at and where he's gotten a lot of these players. Like, I think it took them a little bit of time to sort out what they wanted to do on the back end, especially with the safeties with no longer having Cambinem there. I think that took a little bit of work. And then Dallas Turner just was not really an effective player for the first half of the season still. And him really coming on, I think in the second half was something that really helped kick them into high gear on that side of it.

And so I think those couple of factors makes me feel good about going into next year. I think they just got off to a little bit of a slower start than they wanted, which that coupled with how bad some of the quarterback and offense stuff was, that's how the record ends up being what it is, even if you feel okay about this. Yeah, on defense, we'll see what they do with a couple of the guys hitting free agency. Like Harrison Smith

contract is up after this year. Eric Wilson, like we mentioned, is going to be a free agent. I still feel like one other outside corner somewhere is probably worth seeking out, and then we'll see what they do at safety. They're going to have some financial decisions to make along the defensive line. Like, they would save a decent chunk of money if they move on from a guy

like Javon Hargrave. And as it currently stands, they're $35 million over the $2026 cap the Minnesota Vikings are. There are a couple levers that they can pull. Like if they wanted to restructure Justin Jefferson, that's something they could do. Again, they can move on from Hargrave. And then Ryan Kelly is somebody, if they wanted to move on from him, they could also

save a little bit of money. So there is not a ton of financial wiggle room for this team. Like, they've done most of their spending. Thankfully, they're back in a place after last season being sort of an outlier where they have their full cash of draft picks. So we'll see what they end up doing in terms of the holes they want to fill because they do have the picks to do that.

The biggest question in my mind is what they end up doing a quarterback. On almost any other situation, and you and I have talked about this, with a second year guy who has started only a handful of games, you write it out. There have been enough flashes in the second half of the year and enough good performances where it's like, okay, one more offseason, one more year, he's a young player or really young player,

is there hope that we can get something better out of him next year? with the way the rest of this team is set up, they are third in snap weighted age, third, this season. Can you afford a 2026 where you're sitting there waiting for J.J. McCarthy to develop and it just never happens. Is that something you want to do as an organization to just go into next season with him as your starter

without bringing in real competition and just hope that the flashes you saw in the back half of this year or enough, especially when his, injury history is now getting to a point where there's risk in relying on him independent of the quality of his play. So that's the other thing. That's why I really think you can't. Like, you have to at least bring in some sort of competition because one, I think to me, he is not yet proven that he is sure fire. We should continue to see this thing through. I think that's one element of it. Two, he is not on the field. He's missed more than half the games that he would have

been available for. And I know as a rookie, he would not have necessarily started a lot of those. But still was hurt. Even if he wasn't hurt, even if he wasn't going to be the start, he was hurt. Exactly. Even if they wanted to play and they couldn't happen. I think that that is certainly a really important thing. And so there's that element of it. And then again, this roster is like if you inserted league average quarterback play,

which we got proof of last year, you can be a team that wins 13 games and be a really high-level team. And I just, I think it would take a lot of development in a very short amount of time for J.J. McCarthy to get to. that level. And I just, I don't know if you want to bet all that on one season next year. I think that's a little bit scary to me. It's a risky bet. It's a really scary bet. And I know it sounds ridiculous. A guy who's made 10 starts and just be like, that's enough. You can't do that anymore. But with where everything else about the organization is, I just think that you'd have to tell yourself a story to believe that we know this is going to go well

next year. We have a lot of confidence that this is the right choice. And with young quarterbacks typically, they are usually in situations where it can be a little bit hard to tell. Is the bad play them or is it the situation, the surroundings? This Minnesota team is good enough to tell that it's not the situation. And again, I know the offensive line was banged up at certain points. But when you've got some of the skill players, they got one of the best head coach play callers in the league, it's like, it's pretty clear that this is a situation you can succeed in. The fact that there were so many bumps on the road is a little bit.

It's pretty concerning. It's going to be a fascinating question. I fully understood and was supportive of the path that they took this year specifically because they were building to this for years and it was the way to afford the rest of the roster that they wanted. But it just hasn't happened on the timeline you needed to happen given how the rest of this thing is put together. And so there's just so much downside risk.

of burning the 2026 season, given the rest of how your roster is put together, I'll be very interested to see how they end up handling this. The last team that kind of falls into this bucket, before we get to two others that I think we can move through pretty quickly, is the Atlanta Falcons. So obviously, you know, not contenders necessarily coming into the year, but I think a team that absolutely had playoff aspirations heading into this season and now will be picking just outside of the top 10 as things currently stand. in your mind what went wrong for the 2025 Atlanta Falcons?

A little bit of everything. I think the coaching staff is, I actually think Jeff Ulrich, I think acquitted himself well this year, but I still think Rahim Morris, to me, I think still struggles with a lot of the game management stuff with like timeouts and just, I think a lot of that sort of management.

So there's that element of it. And then also Charles McDonald has done a really good job of pointing out how weird this was. Darnel Mooney having shoulder issues like broke his collarbone, I think, coming into the year. And that like being pretty quieted down and not really talked about. And then him having to like play through it through certain parts of this season, I thought was kind of bizarre. So you have all of that. And then even offensively, like, I'm not saying like we're totally done with Zach Robinson. I think that he could totally

be fine. But I do think that this was a year where he needed to prove that he could continue to iterate and build on some stuff. And I just didn't feel like we saw that. Like I think specifically with the run game, it felt very stale. Like I thought that I wanted. to see them add a little bit more and they really didn't. And I understand some of that is, you know, Jake Matthews is a little bit more in decline because he's getting old. And you downgrade it center because Drew Dalman is gone and Caleb McGarry misses the whole season. So I know there's all of that.

But I just thought that we would get another layer of stuff and I never really felt like we got that. And then just like any roster, a couple of other personnel things. Maybe the quarterback wasn't as good as you wanted. The front, I think, is still pretty bad on defense. and I think, you know, they're good on some pass rush downs, but otherwise put them in some pretty tough spots. Yeah, the defense was better than I think you even could have hoped.

They still have some questions personnel-wise, but that to me is not the contributor to why this team fell short. It's that the offense did not take any of the steps forward that you wanted it to take. The quarterback didn't take a stuff forward. And overall, exactly like you said, I think you wanted to see what this would look like in year two. And I was excited about it. Like, I think they should.

showed enough in the back half of last year where I was like, I'm really looking forward to to what this group will do in your two of this offense with Pennix starting all year. And what happened was, I think that they dug further and further and deeper and deeper into some of the esoteric stuff they were doing last year rather than expanding it. And I think ultimately that harmed the quality of the offense. If you look at it, I mean, just the fact that this team, for a quarterback like Michael Panix, wants to throw the ball down the field. For them to be as low as they were

and how often they were trying to use any sort of play action to seek out some of those shots, I feel like, again, they were, it almost felt like what we talked about with the dolphins every once in a while where instead of trying to branch out from some of those things, they just dig deeper and deeper into those things and then it makes you less flexible as an offense overall.

So I think that an offseason where they kind of look themselves, in the mirror and are like, okay, what do we need to do to kind of shake this up rather than just digging further and further into the stuff that we were already doing? I think that they could find their way out of it. My question is, does this staff get the chance to find their way out of it? Because I could go either way on that, whether the front office or the coaching staff is back or should be back next year. I think my guess is the front office will not be back. And I think at that point, like we've talked about a million times, it might just be better to kind of clean house and move on from everything. But then that kind of complicates the quarterback timeline,

which like they are in a particularly weird situation with all of that. And I do think the Zach Robinson thing with them not using as much play action or maybe not getting in as much true under center as you would want. Like there's still a heavy pistol team, which that almost to like what you were saying feels like a leftover from like what they were doing had to do with Kirk cousins. Yeah. It's like when you were with Kirk, it's like, yeah, he was injured, but he still wants to do some of that stuff, I get it. But they kind of still dug into it with Michael Penix. And I think because we saw the offense called that way in 2024, it's easy to say that

a lot of that is on Zach Robinson. But then I think of what Michael Penix is. And it's like, I don't think he's a quarterback that wants to be booting all that much. And even when I think of what he did in college, it was not a lot of under center turn your back to the defense type of stuff. Right. And he just doesn't seem very comfortable with that. I mean, he doesn't throw the middle of the field very much, which if you're calling a lot

of those play action shots, you kind of want to throw the middle of the field. You want to throw those dig routes, some of those crossers and stuff like that. And so I think that's bled into why the offense feels the way that it feels in terms of like how it's called and constructed. It's a really frustrating place to be because you would hope that we got what, four or five starts from Michael Peddix last year. There were some really enticing flashes. The fact that now at the end of year two, when he was supposed to be the starter for the entire

season, we don't really have any more clarity. on what Michael Penix is as a long-term prospect as a quarterback. That's a maddening place to be if you're the Falcons. But I think we're kind of there. Do you have any more clarity on Michael Penix now than you did it this time last year? No. And it would be easier if he just straight up was terrible. Like, honestly, like if he had somehow regressed,

this would be so much easier to talk about. But he really does feel like it's like, yeah, there are some moments where he really can throw down the field very well. And then some of the velocity he can get. So he can fit some tight windows. And he really doesn't take sacks. and I think that that's a valuable thing. But he's still at this stage, like,

could you reasonably rank him higher than like quarterback 24 or 25? Probably not. I'm not sure how you could. Right, exactly. So it's just like I get why they would want to maybe give him another chance and hope that he can be a little bit healthier. But it's not like you saw any more flashes than you did in those four or five games the first time. Even if you're a new front office that comes in,

I think that you have to stick with him because you probably don't have a pathway to a better option at quarterback than Michael Pennix. And the flashes have been there enough where I think you want to ride it out and see what happens. But again, there's no more clarity now than there probably was at the end of last year. It's just a shitty place to be. And I think you can say that about a lot of things with this organization. The rumor from or the report, I guess, from Jake Laser yesterday about the fact that they're eyeing Matt Ryan for like a potential front office role in this whole thing. We'd be very interested to see how that ultimately shakes out and whether he ends up becoming the guy who's going to make a lot of these decisions.

All right, let's take one more quick break and then come back with a couple teams that we can move through pretty quickly, I think. All right, so these last two teams, I mean, these are the teams that were supposed to be contenders heading into the year. I think they don't really fit this bucket and they don't really deserve a long considered conversation here for two reasons. One, with the Chiefs, we've done this, right? We knew the Chiefs weren't going to make the playoffs for like a month and a half now. Me and Mitchell Schwartz spent half an hour talking about where the Chiefs are and why they're here. And then the other team is the Baltimore Ravens who might make the playoffs. The only reason I wanted to even talk about the Ravens here is because we had alluded to the fact that we were going to.

Like I talked about on another show that when we did this, I was really looking forward to having the Ravens conversation just because I do think there are some like bigger picture existential questions to ask about the Ravens. And I just didn't think the Browns would beat the Steelers yesterday. Well, they did. And so now the Ravens potentially might make the playoffs. Right. And because like, and I think it's fine to have them in here because I don't think the Ravens are a better team than the Detroit Lions. The Detroit Lions just play in a significantly tougher division. And you could even argue, I would argue, conference, whereas the Ravens get to kind of maybe win the AFC North by default in a really weird year.

Which like, I think that is why we're having this conversation where they were, I want to say they were the betting favorites out of the NFC potentially to go to the Super Bowl or at least like one or two. and the fact that they are having to win a division by default in week 18 against a bad Steelers team that is not going to have their best offensive player is it's a tough and weird place to be for them. It kind of feels, and maybe this is the wrong way to look at it, that if they do win that game and they win the division, a lot of the smoke around whether John Harbaugh should keep his job probably goes away, right? I don't know.

I feel like they're really irritated. I honestly, I've said before, I don't think he should be fired. but there does feel like a weird energy with Ravens fans right now that I think they're getting a little bit rabid. That's a totally fine response because my next question was going to be, even if it does quiet down, should it, based on how this year has gone. And I just don't know where I land on what this season says

about the two to three year outlook about the Baltimore Ravens. Like, is this year a blip and just a slight step back? that's going to be rectified moving forward for a bunch of different reasons? Like, is the offense and the step back the offense has taken with the consistency of the running game, the fact that Lamar has been banged up for a huge chunk of the year? If Lamar is healthy heading into next year, they add one piece along the interior of the offensive line, they maybe go out and get one contested catch, big body, pass catcher to add to this group.

Do we have faith that the Ravens can be one of the best offenses in the league again very quickly? I don't know. I kind of do. but I don't know if that's silly. Like I don't know if I'm just like, oh, yeah, they'll be fine. And I'm just being too flippant about it. Like, I just don't know how seriously to take what has felt like a pretty dramatic step back for this team this year.

I think with the offense, until we have definitive proof that Lamar Jackson is not the athlete and player that he has been at his MVP peaks that like, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt that, yeah, if next year, if the surrounding parts are 8% of, better, then yeah, they can get back to being like one of the top five or six offenses again. Like if the offensive line gels a little bit more and you get some sort of like, even just what like Juju Smith was for like the 2022 chiefs, just like a bigger body like that who can be a possession guy, I genuinely think that that's enough because this also goes to the point of like, I'm not going to, you know, call Lamar Jackson dead until it's like fully over it.

Same thing with Derek Henry. I know he's old for a running back. He can do this until he's 40 for all. I give a shit. when you look at the positions that need to be addressed this off season, the interior of the offensive line becomes the biggest question. Linderbaum and Fall Whaleigh are both free agents. They drafted Emery Jones in the third round this year.

I assume that's a long-term play for one of those guard spots. We'll see what they do with Linderbom. There's a chance they need two new starters along the interior of the offensive line for an offensive line that did not play as well as it needed to this year. And the other spot where you just really felt the deficiencies in this roster over the course of this season, even when they fixed the back end of the defense, the defensive front just isn't good enough as currently constructed. And them missing Madabiki all year,

they paid Namdi Madabike to be a centerpiece of this defense. And he was not here all season and might not play again. And so they need another interior piece and then probably another piece on the edge. And if they can do that and they tweak the interior of the offensive line a little bit, I don't know. Like I have enough faith in the quality of the roster top to bottom to believe that they might be able to make it back a lot next year. But the question is, like, is there more going on than that?

Like, are we just going to look at the quality of the players and think, oh, they'll be okay. When in actuality, there is something else festering here that might need to be addressed about why this team can't get over the hump. I don't know. There might be. Yeah, I just think that that stuff is so like it's hard for us in our chair until it's like 10 years after the fact for us to really get like good answers on that stuff. But I do think it's possible because it does feel like. like when the team consistently can't get over the hump and does just have collapses in a lot of these moments. And I know that they've been a little bit better about that in the past couple of years

than they were like earlier on in the Lamar Jackson era where like some defensive collapses. Lamar had a really bad couple of playoff games there. But I don't know. This to me does just feel like somebody has to be the team that gets the short end of the stick like over this, you know, Chief's dynasty. And I know that doesn't apply to this year. But I think this year, if you want to boil it down to just this year. It is just the defensive front. Like I actually looked this up because that's where my mind went. Really in terms of like what needs to be fixed because I do think the offense will be fine.

The defense, they don't have a single player over 30 pressures this year. The only other team where that is true is the Carolina Panthers. And technically OA would have like been on that pace if he had been on the roster the entire year and played all of that. But still, and I think why this is such a big issue is they play more man coverage than a lot of other teams in the NFL. I think they are sick than the league in man coverage. And so if you're playing a ton of man and asking guys to stick, but you can't get home to the quarterback at all, you just end up in a really difficult spot.

Like the reason the Broncos can play as much man as they do is because their pass rush is insane. Even the lions have a better pass rush. The Browns with Miles Garrett. Like they can play as much man as they do because they can get to the quarterback. The Ravens don't do that. And so if you're going to struggle with that,

maybe more zone coverage would be good. But I just, I think if they can fix the front, they'll be okay on defense because the back end is still talented. I tend to agree with that. I think the defense is 11th and a way to defensive DVOA after what was a pretty rough start to this season. Like if they can get one more body up front, I do believe in just the overall infrastructure and the talent on that side of the ball. A question I think is worth asking. And I know this is going to be, you're going to hate me for even asking it.

Oh, man. This year from Omar Jackson, okay, is clearly, even when he was healthy in the beginning of the year, a slight step back from the level at which he was playing last year. think that he looked like the best player in football. Is the slight step back that we got from Lamar Jackson this year? Is that an indication of what is going to be a downward trend? Even if it's a slow downward trend. Like, are we at a point where Lamar Jackson in 2024 is the best version of him that we're ever going to get?

Or is this a slight step back that is going to be corrected next year and moving forward? The answer to that is hugely important for what we can reasonably expect from the Ravens. I kind of like I said earlier, until I like see it for sure multiple years over that he is losing it a little bit athletically, I think that he'll be able to bounce back. Because he's had seasons like this before. Yes. Like I think it was like 2020 or 2021.

He did not play his best ball. And then right after that was the stretch where he went to two MVPs in a row. And so I do think once he's a very good pocket passer, but so much of his game is his ability to move around and by time. And so once that starts to go, I think that'll be a little bit of an issue. But he's 29 right now. And so I still think that he probably has two or three more years where he's got enough in the tank where that's not really going to be an issue. And so this for me is like I fully believe that Lamar Jackson is like if I'm ranking quarterbacks most likely to win the MVP next year.

Like Lamar is probably still top five. Like I really do think that he still has that gear to him. I don't even know if I disagree with. I think the first part of the answer can be true where he. is now on a downward trajectory, and he can still be one of the five guys you would pick to win the MVP next year. Like, I don't think those two things are mutually exclusive. I just felt like last year, he played at a level where he felt like a transcendent player.

Well, like, that is the best player in the league. Like him and Josh Allen was a coin flip for MVP last year. Literally, one was first team all pro and one won the MVP. And so, like, I just think that the level both of those guys played out last year, Lamar had a very serious claim to be the best player in the world. And the way that he played this year, that just isn't the case, even when he was healthy. And so I just wonder, like, are we at a point where the version we saw from him last year is the best it's ever going to get? And the version we see moving forward is slightly diminished version of that. I don't know.

I mean, I do think the version we saw in him last year probably is the best we'll ever see. But that was also one of the best, like, quarterback seasons ever. So I guess the question is how much of a step down is it going to be, if it is going to be a step down? And I don't know. That's a good point. I think I still have enough faith, like I said, Lamar Jackson, that him consistently being a top five guy, I still have faith in that until we fully see like multiple years over that he can't do it anymore.

Yeah, I think that's right. And it would be insane to think that he was never going to be a guy who could be an MVP caliber quarterback again after one season where he was banged up. But again, I think the height that he reached last year, it's at least worth asking the question of how close he's, going to be to that moving forward. Speaking of transcendent quarterbacks who are not going to be in the playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs, again, we've done this in multiple different formats over the last month or so, just because I think we've had a lot of lead time to understand they aren't going to make the playoffs.

What is your kind of last word about what went wrong for the Chiefs and what needs to change for this team over the course of this offseason? Yeah, I think it's a lot of stuff that I've probably said at different points in different conversations again, kind of like you're alluding to. one, we need size at receiver. I'm sorry, enough enough of the small guys. Like, we just, if you're going to be the team that has all the small guys,

they have to be Jalen, Waddle, and Tyree Kill. They have to be the fastest players in the world. And the Chiefs guys are just not that. My other consideration, too, is I think that that's like an easy one to point to. I think some of what we've talked about with the defense has been a little bit harder to untangle. And I think the easiest thing to point to is like, well, they just don't have an ace pass rush. And like, Karloftus is

solid, but almost like I was saying with Lai Tulu, like he's realistically a number number two, edge that there's no ace on the other side of him. So I think that's part of it. The secondary needs a reshuffling. I am so adamant that Trent McDuffie needs to be their full-time nickel. Like they need to figure out how to get bigger and different corners on the outside to help unlock that a little bit.

Because I think, one, it's the coverage ability that McDuffie brings from the slot, but it's also just the attitude. Like, he's an asshole in the best way. And I really think that them getting that back in the nickel would help a lot. And then I think the safety is. Like, I understand how they went from veteran more expensive safeties to run Steve Svagnolo's kind of interesting defense to, hey, we drafted these contingency plans. We're going to give them some run.

It just hasn't worked. It's a really difficult defense to pick up. And those guys, I think, are just, even if they're fine quality safeties, I think are not the difference makers that they've been used to having. And so I think those factors are really, to me, what has led to this little bit of a downturn. on top of, again, we can keep saying it till we're blue in the face, just being more unlucky in one score games this year than they were last year. Yeah.

And I think just structurally, how they go about who they want to be offensively and whether we see some sort of transition just structurally from what the offense is and whether we should, I think that's worth asking. And again, if you want to hear more about that, me and Mitch talked about it for truly a half an hour, like two weeks ago. And I think that to me does go back to the big receiver thing. I mean, I say that so that they can have a little bit more. more jumpball potential, but it's like, you know, we've talked about before, your run game can only

be certain things when Xavier Worthy and Rashie Rice and like, you know, Hollywood Brown or your receivers on the field trying to block people. Tyquan Thornton, he's only like 185, 190 pounds. Like them getting some bigger guys who could move people around, I think would be nice. And then one actually stat thing I wanted to point out, because I think ultimately, even for all of what I just said, I extremely believe that the chiefs kind of like the lines are going to be fine, but Aaron Schatz of FTN was tweeting out some DVOA thing of basically teams that have been 6 and 10 at this point in the season. So I know the 17 game season, all of them are not done.

But he listed a dozen teams. The Chiefs are the second best 6 and 10 team ever by DVOA. And all but one of the 12 teams that he listed went on to have a even or winning record the next year. So like the Chiefs are probably going to be fine. It's just this was a really bizarre year. One more note, just in terms of housekeeping, they are currently $45 million over, $48 million over the 2026 cap. They can restructure Mahamas pretty easily. He's a $45 million based salary next year. He's a $78 million cap it. I assume they'll touch that in some way. And if they end up moving on from Joanne Taylor, that gets them $16 million under the cap.

So it looks bad right now, but there are some pretty quick levers that they'll be able to pull in order to give themselves some flexibility heading into next season. and we'll see how they end up using it. All right. So that is, I think, eight teams, right? Eight teams that are either not going to make the playoffs or in the Ravens case are playing a play-in game this week. And then we will hit eight more teams later this week. Those are the teams picking at the top of the draft. And we'll try to find some silver linings from their seasons and what that might mean for 2026.

And so by the end of this week, we will have hit almost all, of the teams that are not going to make the playoffs and just having one more short kind of quick conversation about what their seasons felt like. So be on the lookout for that. That show is going to be coming in a couple days for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.