The Athletic Football Show: A show about the NFL - Wild Card Weekend picks against the spread

Episode Date: January 8, 2021

The most wonderful time of the year may be behind us, but the most wonderful time of the NFL season is just beginning. The playoffs are here, with Saturday kicking the first ever six-game Wild Card weekend.Michael Beller and Vic Tafur are back to dive into their top plays against the spread. The guys get into all six games this weekend, discussing leans for all six, while highlighting the ones on which they'll actually be placing wagers. They also discuss their favorite futures bets for the postseason.Follow Beller on Twitter: @MBellerFollow Vic on Twitter: @VicTafur Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic football show. To the athletic and fantasy football podcast. We are approaching Wild Card Weekend, and that is exactly what we are going to get into on this episode. Get into it from a gambling perspective. Our favorite plays against the spread for the wild card round. I am Michael Beller. I am joined, of course, by Vic Tafer.

Vic, this is our first show together since turning the calendar from 2020 over to 2021. So let me wish you a happy new year here on January 7th. How you doing? Oh, good, man. Back at you. Yeah, I guess we survived the regular season, and I will try and thrive in the playoffs. There we go.

Exactly. That's exactly what we're going to try to do here over the next couple of weeks. Vic and I will be coming at you every week leading into a weekend where there are games. So we will also take that week off in between the championship round and the Super Bowl, but we still have four episodes of this coming at yet, all starting right here right now. First, since the playoffs haven't yet started, I thought it would be fun, Vic, if we did some pre-season or some full playoff long predictions looking at what we think the AFC championship NFC championship Super Bowl are going to be and then using that to determine

if there are any futures that we might want to put a little bit of money on before the playoffs kickoff on Saturday. So first let's do that. Give me what you have happening in those championship rounds and the Super Bowl. Well, I kind of want to go as the Chiefs. The odds are not very good. They're only, what, plus 200? And I think they haven't been really themselves as late, but they haven't covered, I think, in seven straight weeks and winning all these close games. I'm obviously confident they have enough to get by,

but it's not probably a good strategy going into a playoffs where he's more to be hitting on all cylinders. So I think I'm going to go with some value instead. I probably go with the Bills. They're plus 700 in the AFC. I'm going to just go for, go crazy and go with the Rams. I think they're plus 300 in

the NFC. So that is, so you've got, so those are your futures plays. Those are the plays you'd be interested in the futures. The Rams are plus $1,200 to win the NFC and then they're plus $3,000 for the Super Bowl. There's some other teams you could get into even deeper than that, but I don't know if any of us really want to jump on, you know, the Bears or the Washington footballs to go on and win the Super Bowl. But that's so you like the, you like the, you like the Bills, you like the Rams as potential future plays. Does that mean that you have the bills at least being in the AFC championship

game or the Super Bowl for that matter? Yeah, I think I'm going to pick the bills to beat the Chiefs in the AFC Talley game in advance the Super Bowl. I guess the Chiefs, I think are clearly the higher ceiling team, but for some reason they haven't really been putting it all together. So I think the bills are kind of hot. I think Josh Allen didn't look that bad in the first match against the Chiefs. I think he had some issues, but you can see you are. You might have success against him in a rematch. So I'm going to want the bills to beat the Chiefs in the AFC title game.

Hopefully Josh Allen doesn't have any flashbacks to last playoffs with one of the most bizarre last. any of us has ever seen in a football game. That game that seemed like the bills had in hand last year against Houston, and then the Texans make that big comeback. We could have seen these two teams against one another in the playoffs. Last year, we might be seeing it this year. I'm with you, and that being the AFC championship game. I think the AFC is going to be a really fun tournament.

I do think that the one and two seeds ultimately survive and make it to the AFC championship game. I think that Ravens could make things interesting. I think the Titans, in fact, could make things interesting. Whoever wins that game could be a little bit of a stumbling block for the Chiefs, or the Bills, for that matter. In the second round, I think more likely they'll be going up against the Chiefs. But either way, I do think that those teams are going to be dangerous. But ultimately, I think it's Chiefs and Bills, and I'm going to be super boring and chalky.

I'm going to have the Chiefs coming out of the AFC and the Packers coming out of the NFC where they triumph over the Saints in the NFC championship game. So while I think these first couple of rounds could have an upset here and upset there, I've got the ones and twos in both conferences advancing to the championship games and the top seed Packers and Chiefs facing one another in the Super Bowl. What do you have coming out of the NFC? Well, I understand that the Packers make a lot of sense. They're playing at home.

They've been hot, but Aaron Rogers is going to win an MVP award. So I definitely should probably be conservative and go with the Packers to go to Super Bowl game. So I guess I'll do that. But I do think just from a wild, you know, upset kind of perspective, I do think the Rams have a chance. The Rams have a great defense. I think we'll note. We'll see the help with Jared Goff here,

but I think if they can survive this first game, get Goff back, they'll have enough offensively with their running game to surprise some teams. You know, the one, the problem with that, though, is that for them to play in the championship game with the Rams being the sixth seed, you would need the Bears to upset the Saints.

So then there would be Bears, Packers, in the second round, Rams, and whoever would, I guess, whoever would come out of the 4-5 game would be the other matchup, if that all fell. But I understand what you're saying. Otherwise, the Rams play the Packers in round two.

The Rams would play the Packers. If the Saints beat the Bears, which they're going to, the Rams play the Packers. That's immense my big upset pick. So the Rams beat the Packers round two, and they go on in Super Bowl. So that's good. I'm glad we to figure that out. Rams all the way to the Super Bowl.

There's no way the Bears beat the Saints. I think the Bears are, to me, I like the Bears defense on a big, good little Mac guy, but they're clearly a fraud team. They've got by, with some teams against bad teams to get through this, to get this far. Last week was a big game.

Their defense didn't really do anything as the Packers. And I think Chubisky's kind of a fraud still. So I can't imagine how the Bears beat the Saints this weekend. I am right there with you. And we are going to be in strong agreement when we get to that game for Wild Card weekend. But looking at some futures. So I think you're right. I don't think there's any,

there's not enough value in any of the chalk picks to really want to back them in terms of tying up some money in futures bets. So I understand not wanting to do that. Buffalo to win the AFC, as you said. That's one I like also. Plus 350 is the line on that one. I think Baltimore is going to be really dangerous with the way that they can get going. I think that they've got a very tough matchup right out of the gate against Tennessee.

But if they get past that game, I think they could present Kansas City and Buffalo with some issues. Plus 1,200 to win the AFC are the Ravens. And with the way they've been clicking over the last five weeks, I think they are a nice long shot sort of play just to win their conference. not even to win the whole thing, just to win their conference. You're getting 12 to 1 on your money. I like Tampa Bay also as a little bit of a long shot, plus 400, not quite a long shot fully, but plus 400 to win the NFC. I really don't think they're going to have too much trouble with Washington.

We'll talk about that game in a second. And then we've already seen them dominate Green Bay. That was way back in October. These are two different teams from then. But Tampa Bay was also figuring things out, excuse me, figuring out things on the offensive side of the ball. So we know that they can make life tough on Aaron Rogers, We've already seen it.

And if they win that game, then it could set up another matchup with Saints. So I think that they are a potentially dangerous team. I wish the odds were a little longer because it's going to be hard to go to Green Bay, win, go to New Orleans and win. Those are two tough games, only plus 400. But they are a team that feels like they could be dangerous to me. We've seen them play some of their best football of late. So those are some other ones that I'm looking at. Any feelings on those teams making deeper runs, Baltimore or Tampa?

I don't think it's the logical with Tampa. But, yeah, they scare me. They've had some moments this year where you kind of wonder what was going on. If they're secondary still a question mark, the running game still a question mark. So I can't get too comfortable with the bucks going very far. And then as far as the Ravens, yeah, they've taken kind of business, but they've beaten some really bad teams. I'm not sure they've really proven to me.

They're backed where they should be. So I think you're right. This weekend's game against the Titans is a fascinating game because the Titans clearly shown they don't have any fear of the Ravens that beat them last year in the playoffs and again this year. but the problem is their defense is so bad. So I can't really back the Titans this week either. So I think, yeah, I think those teams will definitely be interesting to watch,

but I can't see them going too far in the playoffs. The Titans are a team that I want to like them. I really want to like the Titans as someone to come out of the AFC. But at plus 1,300, I mean, the price feels nice, but that defense is going to catch up with them. It might not catch up with them against Baltimore, but it's going to catch up with them eventually. It's hard to imagine them with their defense getting through Baltimore and Kansas City and Buffalo.

It feels like at one point along the line, they're going to get tripped up. And maybe they lose a game 3835. Maybe their offense is excellent in that game as it has been for most of the season. But I think that defense ultimately is going to prevent the Titans from getting into the Super Bowl. We do like some futures, though, Vic, all over those Rams. We're going to get to that Rams Seahawks game just a little bit later. You also liking the bills. Me too.

I am liking the bills as a futures bet, and this is just some of the fun we are going to be bringing to you over the next month, taking a look at teams that could be making some damage over this next month in the NFL playoffs. All right, so let's get to those plays for this week. Let's get to Wild Card weekend here, Vic. We've got three games on Saturday, three games on Sunday. NFL cannot get enough of teasing this first ever back-to-back playoff triple header. They are absolutely loving that. Can't turn on really any sports program and not see some. some sort of advertisement telling you all about these great triple headers that we have coming

our way with the change adding the seventh playoff team in both conferences. The playoffs start on a Saturday with Bills and Colts, as always, these lines coming to us from the consensus at Vegas Insider. Bills are six and a half point favorites in this game at home against the Colts. 51.5 is the over-under. We're going to do things a little bit differently than we typically did in the regular season. Instead, just giving you our five favorite plays, we're going to talk about every game. We're going to talk about if we live.

lean, but then we'll also let you know if we would actually play the game. We're going to have leans for every game, but will we play them or will we pass them? We'll talk about that here too. So, Vic, Bill's minus six and a half, what's your lean, and would you play it? Well, I think both I'm guessing I'm going to lean against the Colts. I think we both don't like the Colts very much. I think for me this game, all comes down to who gets out to the lead first. I think the Colts are going to have trouble coming back from a deficit against the Bill's defense. So I'm leaning towards the bills. The spread's a little, it's a little tempting, a little dicey, a little scary. I think the Colts can probably do a backdoor cover or not keep it somewhat close, but I'll

probably lean towards taking the bills as well, minus the six and a half. Yeah, I'm with you on the bills. I do like them. It's definitely a lean for me. I just, you know, obviously they are, I think you'd be hard pressed to find too many people who think that the Colts are the better team in this one. The Colts definitely can do what they need to do to keep this close, I think, But as you said, if this is a game where the Bills get out to any sort of lead, if this is ever a two-score game, it's hard to imagine the Colts fighting their way back against this Bill's team. And, you know, we just saw a few weeks ago the Colts lose a big lead to a playoff caliber team in the Steelers, a game that it seemed like they had well in hand, and the Steelers were able to chip away, chip away, chip away,

and ultimately come back and take that one. The Colts don't really have that sort of firepower. So they need to be playing from ahead or playing at least within a one-score window the entire game, it feels like if they're really going to have a chance. And I just don't fully buy that happening. I think the bills have clearly turned a corner. They have put themselves in a different group. I think they have put themselves in that Chiefs Packer Saints group

that is looking down on the rest of the playoff field. So not only are the bills a lien for me, but this is one where I will have a play, especially if it stays under a touchdown, really like the bills being able to cover the six and a half point number. So mark me down as a lean toward the bills and as someone who would play the bills and play them with confidence on Saturday.

Second game on the board, Seahawks minus three and a half against the Rams. 42 and a half is the over-under. This is one where I lean to Seahawks, but I am not touching it at all. I've got a feeling you're thinking differently. Yeah, I'm with the Rams. I think the Adams injury is a big for the Seahawks.

I'm not sure he's playing this week, but obviously probably 100%. I think over the years, I think, you know, McVeasend and a wellness matchup, I think they had problems last game, but Jerry Gough was terrible that game. So I'm not sure if he's playing or if not. But I think their defense is really, really good. I think they have shown they have the answers against Seattle.

I think I saw one stat. A D.K. Metcalf is 46 total routes against Daniel Ramsey. That's three catches for 28 yards. So they're able to take away the biggest weapon from the Seahawks, which I think it's always a great sign. So I like the Rams to win outright and march on to my dream of a Super Bowl appearance. John Wolfer could be getting the start for the first. Rams, no concerns there if it's him in place of Jared Gough?

Yeah, but again, golf wasn't very good last time. So, I mean, maybe it won't even better. But I think, to me, I like their running game, their potential. It hasn't really always clicked, but you can see if they have the potential going to go on with that running game and strong defense. A combination could be key in the postseason. Yeah, we, you know, we weren't really sure in Week 17 what to expect that of Cam Acres. And it's almost hard to remember.

It feels like Week 17 was, you know, three years ago. But the Rams needed that game. You know, the Rams were in a position where if they lose and the Bears beat the Packers, that the Rams would have been out of the playoffs. So they went into that game thinking that they needed to win to get in, and we weren't exactly sure where Cam Acres was with his health with his ankle, and suddenly he was out there carrying the ball like a workhorse. So got to feel very good about him coming into this game,

and they were finally starting to not fully make him the lone guy in the back, but they were making him the lead guy and clearly has a higher ceiling than Daryl Henders. or Malcolm Brown, and that adds different element to the offense. And we saw John Wolford being able to be someone who can use his athleticism, get outside the pocket, threaten teams with the run. I don't think that that's enough to think he's a better play for this team than Jared Goff, but your point, I think, is well taken here, that they can still survive a day, oh, a week without Jared Goff. It's not like Jared Goff blew the doors off of the Seahawks in either of the meetings between these two teams this season. So they could definitely still win this one if it is

indeed John Wolf. Think you want Jared Gough if they're going to make that Super Bowl run for you? But one game with this sort of matchup, with the way Seattle has been playing and with Jalen Ramsey being someone who can't take D.K. Metcalf away or go as far toward taking DK McHoff away as anyone can, then this could definitely be a game where the Rams feel okay about Wolford and definitely would rather have a 100% Wulford than an 80% Jared Gough. Nightcap on Saturday is between Tampa and Washington. The Buccaneers are in D.C., but as eight and a half point favorite.

against the NFC East 7 and 9 Washington football team. 45 is the over-under on this one. I'm going to take it first here, Vic. I love the bucks in this one. I lean the bucks, and I probably will end up betting the bucks also. I also think the under is the play here. Everyone loves Washington's defense and with good reason.

They have built a very strong defensive core around those first-round defensive linemen. Chase Young already looking like a superstar in his rookie year. And that's the sort of team we know that can give Tom ready trouble. But it's not like Tampa's defense is very bad either. And Washington's offense has just had nothing. And Alex Smith is an unbelievable story. This Washington team winning the division, I don't care that they were seven to nine. It's a great story. But this is still an offense that shouldn't really bother anyone. And you've got Antonio Gibson and Terry

McLaren coming into this game at less than 100 percent, even if they both are able to go. They're not going to be as healthy as they were even just back in week 14. And so now you're looking at an already limited offense playing with its two true playmakers at less than 100% against a very good defense and an offense in Tampa that really did seem to finally fit that puzzle fully together as we got into the final quarter of the regular season. So I think Washington is a great story. I think that there is a scenario you can build in your head where the defensive line creates so much havoc with just its front four on Brady. They force him and do a couple of bad decisions.

They get, they make them uncomfortable all day, they live in the back field, they get maybe a sack fumble, something like that, and this game stays close, but it has to check every single box. There is no margin for error for Washington,

not only to win, I think, but even to stay within the eight and a half, and as great of a story as this is, and as legitimately great of a defense as this is, I just don't see it happening, so I'm confidently behind the bucks at eight and a half. Where are you on this one?

Yeah, that scenario you said that you can build. I built it. I built it with a sundack in the whole deal. I'm fired up for the scenario where the Washington's keep it close. I think that defensive line is really good. I'm better than I thought it was. I've watched them more late than I have beginning of the year.

But I'm buying Chase Young. Chase Young City wants a piece of Tom Brady. I love the enthusiasm. I think they can cause some problems. And I'm not a big fan of the buck secondary. I think that's the issue for them. I think the Washington receivers can get open and probably keep it close. I also think Devin White's a big injury, a big guy.

I mean, out COVID for the for the buck. That's a big deal. So I like the the, Washington's, keep it close. I think it's a good number. And I also saw that

Ron Rivera had some success against Brianarians in the playoffs five years ago. Panthers were seven, eight and one. Arizona's leveling five and Rivera won that game. So I like the matchup there also.

So I'm taking the, leading towards the Washington's, taking the Washington's, and loving the Washington's. Didn't John Skelton have to start that game for Arizona? Wasn't it something like that? I mean, there's details we can talk about.

I'm just taking the key point, the key headline But, yeah, I just, again, I'm all about Chase Young and bravado, and I love the bullet more material he gave and didn't really care. All right. So you like Washington to stay with him, the eight and a half. Do you think there's an upset brewing here? And is that something you would play?

Would you play the eight and a half on Washington? I'm playing the eight and a half. I mean, I can't really buy the upset because, I mean, like you mentioned, their offense is definitely still struggling. Alex Smith, it's been a great story, but I don't have enough confidence, Alex Smith, who's clearly not 100 percent to, get enough points to beat them out right. So I take the points and be happy with the cover

and not be too hard bent on the all right win. All right. So we're against each other in two of the three games on Saturday. We're both on Buffalo. You're on the Rams. I'm on the Seahawks. Although it's one I wouldn't bet. You are on Washington and I am on the Buccaneers. And that is one that we would both play our sides with confidence. Okay, Vic, let's moving on over to Sunday. Three more games, the first of which I think is the game of the weekend.

Ravens and Titans. The Ravens are actually three and a half point favorites in this one in Tennessee. 55 is the over-under. This is another one where we are going to be against each other. You like the Ravens. I like the Titans. Why do you like the Ravens? I circle of Titans, my first one of the number.

I like the, you mentioned the past matchups. I like their offense a lot, but I just can't get over to defense. The defense is so bad. And I think I'm not sure how much the Ravens have really shown all the way back, but they'll at least somewhat back. They'll have some confidence now, Lamar Jackson, and the running game again with Dobbins. So I think they outscored the Titans and the cover the spread.

You know, my favorite play in this game actually is the over. Assuming the total stays somewhere in that 55 range, I think this game source past it. You know, Tennessee has played in a lot of over games this season, and I really don't see that changing because of how good and efficient their offense is and how bad that defense is. And like I said earlier, I do think that this defense is going to catch up to him.

It could happen as soon as Sunday against Baltimore. It could happen in the next week, whether they play Buffalo or Kansas City, assuming Buffalo takes care of business against Indy. They could survive that game and they could catch up to them in the A.C. Championship game against Kansas City or Buffalo, whoever might be there. That defense is ultimately going to hamstring the Titans to the extent that they don't make it to the Super Bowl. But that offense is so good, week in and week out. They know what they want to do.

Ryan Tannahill has just been this Uber efficient guy. taking over as the starter in Tennessee. Derek Henry, almost impossible to slow down, especially in a game that is within a one-score window. And then A.J. Brown and Corey Davis and what they do on the outside for this team, AJ Brown, a true alpha receiver who can swing a game on his own with one big play. I just think that it's very hard to trust a team like Baltimore that has flaws of its own to go on the road and win this game by more than a field goal,

and that's what the number asks you to do. So I do like the Titans in this one. I think the Titans win this game. It is my least confident pick of the week because of what I said. I think how dangerous these two teams are, this is the game of the week. So it's not a for sure, no. It's not a for sure. Yes, I will definitely have some picks tweeted out on Saturday and Sunday.

But I love the over in this game. I really don't see either defense being able to slow down the offense. I think we get some sort of 3835 thriller, 4135 thriller, and just the offenses are able to move the ball almost at will. And that's why I like the Titans. I really think the Ravens defense is going to have to show up in a way where they're able to keep Tennessee south of 30. And they can do it. I just, I really want to bet on this scene.

We're going on more than a year now of this Titans offense, being this offense and being able to do this weekend and week out. And I think they're able to continue it here this week. So, I mean, game of the week, right? I mean, is there any other game you think that compares to how fun this one's going to be? No, it's definitely a big time matchup on the weekend. Yeah, it's going to be just, I think, a great game and also have that, flavor of the that we know whoever wins this game might be pulling an upset in the divisional round and playing more than just these couple of games.

The middle game of the day on Sunday, I don't think we're going to say that about both of these teams. New Orleans and the Bears, the Saints are nine and a half point favorites at home against the very undeserving playoff team. Chicago Bears 8 and 8 backing in after getting embarrassed at home by the Packers, which actually I feel almost like embarrassed isn't the right word because The Bears are who they are. It's hard to be embarrassed when you're just a mediocre team going up against a Super Bowl favorite.

Like, should we have expected the Bears to really play with the Packers in Week 17? Of course not. The Bears are an 8-and-8 team. They're as 8-8-8 team. It's a point differential of plus 2. They've basically beat every team that they were better than and lost to every team that they were worse than. They are the textbook 8-n-8 team, and Green Bay is a Super Bowl contender. So it's hard to say they were embarrassed.

They're just nowhere near as good a team as Green Bay. And I think that holds true for this matchup with the Saints. I think the Saints Walt in this one. The fact that these teams played an overtime game in the regular season, notwithstanding, I just think that the Saints are able to take care of business, and I believe you are on the same page. Yeah, I think we talked about the slate. This is first time for six games.

This is imposing as a viewer to plan to watch six games in two days. I think this is the one day we take a break. You go outside for a walk, maybe let the kid a little bit to do something. I think this game probably won't be close. I think the Bears are kind of a – it's amazing they got this far with this roster they have. the quarterback issues. And to me, the most of the learning thing about the game last weekend was the defense wasn't able to even come close to covering any of the Packers.

Packers got guys running free all day. So I think the Saints would post similar problems against the Bears. So I think, you know, better offense, better defense probably. So I think it's a big number. I'm definitely leaning towards the Saints. I'm not sure I would back them in terms of a bet, but I probably would. I think I would think about some more. But, yeah, I can't see the Bears staying close in this one.

I mean, the first punt that the Bears forced in that game against the Packers was the Packers' first possession in the second half. And the play before the punt, Marquez Valdez Scantling let go through his hands what would have been his second 70-yard touchdown of the game. And that was the first stop the Bears defense got. So that is also, I think, a point that is important to make here. All sides point to Alvin Camara being able to play in this game. He missed the Saints Week 17 game on the COVID list. And he actually tested positive for it himself. but does sound like he is going to be able to be back for the Saints on Sunday.

I agree, 9.5 feels a little rich. I actually, this line opened at 8 or 8.5, depending on where you make your plays, and I jumped on it right away when I saw it at 8.5. If I didn't already have that, I might be thinking twice about playing it at 9 and a half, and I'm not going to play it at 9.5, but I will say part of the reason I'm not doing that is because I already have it at 8.5, and I don't feel the need to jump on it at 1 point higher also to put any more on at one point higher. So definitely the moral of the story here is trust the Saints to win this one with relative ease.

The final game of Wild Card Weekend, Sunday night, a great divisional rivalry matchup here. These two teams played in some form, not exactly what we're going to see on Sunday. In week 17, the Browns beat the Steelers to get themselves into the playoffs and get a matchup with those same, at least in Jersey and in name. Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be a little different in terms of who is actually participating in this game for Pittsburgh. This one actually opened at four, and then with all the COVID issues going on

with the Browns, Kevin Stefansky, will not be at this game. Joel Petonio, starting offensive lineman. He will not be available. Cadaral Hodge, wide receiver. He will not be available. We're getting some more news about this coming out on Thursday as well.

The line quickly jumped up to six. So you're seeing it at six, six, six and a half. We're going to take it at six with an over under of 47 and a half. What are your feelings on this one, Vic? I thought it bodes well for this Thursday. We're able to keep a close line. We've got some Browns without a lot of their players not playing.

So I thought it was a good sign for them as far as morale. And I think they mentioned the COVID stuff is huge. I just Browns have a lot of holes now all of a sudden, especially if the head coach is not being on the sideline. And it's also bigger may for his first playoff start. I wouldn't be super confident about how he does in that atmosphere. So I like the Steelers. I'm not crazy about the point.

John Blake mentioned from four to six, but I think they're probably going to get the run game going. And that pass rush is still probably the best pass rush in the league. So I think they cover it. I probably would also back them as well. Yeah, I like the Browns with the points for this, but this was the easiest stay away of the week for me. I would have really like,

if you were giving me the full strength Browns at four and a half, I think I would have been all over that because I do think that Pittsburgh is a paper tiger this season. And it really just, maybe that's actually a little bit unfair because it's got a lot to do with the injuries they suffered on defense. I mean, as experienced as the, head coach quarterback combo of Mike Tomlin and Ben Roposberger are, I don't think that they are,

as this team is built, that they're equipped to carry them through a really tough AFC. I mean, you look past Cleveland, two teams they would have to beat to get to the Super Bowl. I think that this could be a one-win and done season for the Steelers, but if that defense were full strength, we could be talking a little bit differently, but with the injuries that they've had, and they've had plenty of time to rebuild the defense on the fly, it's not like these were injuries that were suffered in week 17, but still, it's just not the defense that it was when that unit was carrying the Steelers in the first half of the season. And that's where I ultimately would have faded them in this game against a full strength Browns team. But there's just too many

question marks for me to really want to get behind the Browns. We can't possibly measure the impact that No Stefansky on the sideline is going to be maybe it'll be no impact or maybe it'll be a huge impact. There's just really no way of knowing. I think you make a good point about it being Baker's first playoff game. So sort of an unknown quantity there, even though we know him relatively well at the stage of his NFL career. Hard to know exactly how he's going to react positively, negatively neutral in his first playoff game. Just too many question marks for me to really want to hop on either side of this one. So easily, the easiest stay away for me. However, if I were forced to play it, I would just take the points, take the Browns, and trust that they can at least

keep this close. And I do hope that it's a fun game because it's fun to see the Browns back in the playoffs for the first time in almost 20 years. Where were you, Vic? Where were you? So it was the 2002 season, the 2003 playoffs. Where were you the last time the Browns were in the playoffs? Wow, that's good question. 2002, I was probably covering the Warriors back there. That's when the Warriors were in the Eric Musselman era. So, oh, man. I watched a lot of bad basketball. I watched, I watched Earl Boykin score 40 off the bench one night in Denver. I was her season highlight. I was as good as a guy for the Warriors.

So, yeah, it's been a long time for sure. Yeah, yeah. You had to be a pretty young man then, too. Not that young, unfortunately. I've been around a while. Got the gray hairs and so forth. But, yeah, I think it's great for the Browns fans. I know pretty well are pretty bitter about how fast the Browns

to be able to turn around and they're back. You know, one of the better teams in the league. So I think the Raiders kind of wish that they were there. But, you know, we'll see what happens. Let's see what happens next season. I was a senior in high school when the Browns were last in the playoffs. 2002, I graduated from high school in 2003. So that's how long it has been for me, and that feels like a pretty long time ago.

So excited to see the Browns back in the playoffs, even if it is just this one and done for them. Not going to be one and done for us here on the Athletic Fantasy Football podcast for the playoffs. As I said, we'll be back with you next week for the division round. The week after that for the championship, we'll take the week off, and then we'll be back with you for Super Bowl. Monday. We'll talk about all sorts of fun props that week, too. So ride with us through the playoffs. Hopefully it's fun and hopefully on top of that, it's profitable as well. For Vic Tafer, I'm Michael Beller. Good luck this weekend. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you next week. See you.

This was the Athletic Football Show.