The Athletic Hockey Show - 2024 NHL Draft consensus big board

Episode Date: March 1, 2024

On today’s Prospect Series episode of The Athletic Hockey Show, Max and Corey first talk about The Athletic’s recent A1 article, “Who will draft Trevor Connelly? Inside the NHL’s evolving scrutiny of top prospects” and then discuss Corey’s top college, CHL, and European free agents ranking, Max’s 2024 NHL Draft consensus big board, and the guys close things out with listener questions in the mailbag.Get a 1-year subscription to The Athletic for $2 a month when you visit http://theathletic.com/hockeyshowRead “Who will draft Trevor Connelly? Inside the NHL’s evolving scrutiny of top prospects” here: https://theathletic.com/5290107/2024/02/22/nhl-draft-prospect-trevor-connelly/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Bolbin here alongside Corey Pranman for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Loaded show today. We got Corey's college-free agents. We're going to talk about the Consensus 2024 NHL Draft Big Board. We've got a mailbag. I want to start, though, Corey, you've had a couple stories come out recently that I think we should get to on this show. One of them was a co-by line that you did with Katie Strang on the evolving scrutiny of NHL draft prospects.

and it's a really thorough story. I'd recommend everybody go read it. But there is a prospect in this class who I think is at the center of that story. And that's Trevor Connolly, who we've talked about briefly on the show in the past. But I just wanted to start this out by asking you about Trevor Connolly, the hockey player and why he makes for an interesting kind of case study of this evolving scrutiny. Well, I mean, everywhere he's played this season,

at least me and outside like a weird showcase event, like the All-American game, but when he's played with either international teams or his club team, Tri-City Storm in the USHL, he's been outstanding. He was a top player at the Wink of Gretzky Cup in the summer. He's a top player at the World Junior A Challenge. And he's been one of the best fours in the USHL this season. He's one of the best pure skaters in the draft of dynamic skater. He's extremely skilled.

He competes hard. I don't think the playmaking is outstanding, but it's good enough. He looks like a guy. He's got decent size. He has all the indicators, in terms of tools plus production of a guy who could be a top six forward for a very long time in the NHL. He has those kinds of traits, and I think he's a guy who, on pure Marevus hockey ability, would be a top 10 overall selection in the upcoming draft.

But there are some concerns in NHL circles about some off-ice issues with Connolly. It's a really thorough story. I'd highly recommend everybody go check it out. It's probably not the kind of thing that we can do justice on a podcast, but a really good story by Corey and Katie Strang. I think we've got the link in the description for you guys to go check that out, and I would highly recommend that you do so. More recently, Corey, you've also had another story come out on the free agents

out of college and out of the Canadian Hockey League and out of Europe this year. These are players who are no longer within the scope of the draft. Teams have to go sign. and for the players, it means they get some say over where they go, which always, I think, makes for an interesting kind of free agent window in this backstretch of the season. And there is one name here, Corey, that seems to stand out above all of the rest for you. You have Colin Graf on a Quinnipiac projected as a middle of the lineup player here,

which is a pretty high level for what you're usually looking at in these markets. Yeah, correct. He is the big fish this spring and summer. you don't get those kind of impact players every cycle. I'd say one of them every two to three years. It's a guy that looks pretty exciting that you think is going to play in the NHL. Maybe you don't get high-end level impact,

but whether it's a guy like Anita Kaiser or Justin Schultz, Ilya, even Logan O'Connor, the kind of guys you think can help an NHL team. And I think Graf has a good chance to be the next one. You look at a guy who's been an excellent college player. He's been a guy who's put up significant scoring totals over the last two season, played a major part in Quinnipiac's run to a national title last spring, extremely skilled, good skater.

Wouldn't call him like a real true hard of play against type, and he's a little bit on the small side, so he's not going to be killing penalties or running guys over at the higher levels. But I think this is a guy with legitimate NHL offensive talent and maybe a guy who could be in a third line wing, second power play kind of guy. I realize that player type isn't overly exciting. You think you've got a player type you think I can find him in free agency. But you've got to pay $2 million to find him in free agency. You can get this guy on a minimum contract.

Well, so I found it interesting that he went back at all this year. I mean, he was a guy who was high on this list for you a year ago as well. As you said, he wins the national championship. And there was a part of me that was a little surprised to see him go. back at all. Would you say that his kind of stock has meaningfully changed in that year? And I think the goal scoring numbers have really gone up this season in a per game basis. But would you say your evaluation on him has shifted it all from a year ago? Or is it just one more year in college to train, I guess?

I have liked him a little bit more this year. I feel like he's gained a little more strength of skating. It's popped for me a little bit more consistently than when I watched him last year. I wouldn't say he was the big fish last spring. I think he's kind of emerged at that this. as a guy who looks who I think can jump into the NHL right away whether he doesn't start the following fall we'll see but I think he will whoever signs him will have to guarantee him an HLI's time right out of the gate he has that kind of leverage and that kind of talent and he's still pretty young I mean this is a guy who's only 21 when you think of a lot of college for age you

think of 23 or 24 25 he's only 21 will be 22 at the start of next season so you still think there's a little bit of physical development to come. They're a little more runway for this player. And I think him weighing the extra year was good. I think he'll be more prepared for the NHL this spring. Is this a player that you think all 32 we're going to be vying for? I know in the story you mentioned that last spring, there had been some rumors around the Red Wings.

I look at a Massachusetts kid who spent his whole youth career for the junior Bruins and wonder about that. Is this a team that you expected just to be an all-outbitting war, a situation that you expect to see an all-upitting war? Yeah, it's hard to say. Don Sweeney was spotted one of his games, recently, but it might have been looking at Jacob Quill in there, too. His teammate would also be a top prospect, and he goes to a lot of college games,

so it's not really that noteworthy. But I do think, you know, it's not, I don't know where he's going to sign. I don't know about all 32 teams because it's a very specific player. It's different when it's like a two-way defenseman where you can kind of plug him anywhere in the lab. You need him to play on your power play. His representatives will look at depth charts and kind of make assumptions about where he fits. So I don't know all 32 teams being on it in all.

him, but I think a fair number of NHL teams will be at least be trying to see where he's at. And I'm going to guess there's going to be about five to ten teams on his short list. And you reference Quill in that that's his teammate at Quinnipiac. I believe he was the MVP of the NCAA tournament last year, and he comes in a number four on your list. Yep. Very nice two-way player. When you go through these free agents, you know, it's a lot of guys who are long shots, to are probably American League players.

It's pretty rare that you see guys who check off the typical boxes that they have decent size, that they can skate, and they have offensive skills. And Quillan does that. I'm not saying he's the biggest or the fastest, but he's got an H. H.L. average size. He's a good skater. He competes hard. He's a two-way player.

He's got some offensive tools. I don't think it's elite offensive tools. Hockey sense is just okay for me. But he can score goals. He's got hands. He plays with pace. and he's a guy who I think has as the makeup of somebody who could potentially be a bottom six forward in the NHL. And you've seen him, again, pretty young, not an older college free agent who's played important minutes on a top team, played well in big moments against very good players,

I think has some traits that you think could translate into the NHL. Within that same conference, the ECAC is Dartmouth goalie Cooper Black, who's at number five on your list. and the headline here could simply read six foot nine goalie. Right. And the production hasn't been outstanding. I think there's a chance he goes back to school this season and will be highly attractive again the following season. But like I said, you don't see a lot of guys who probably would be going to play basketball, pick hockey.

And, you know, he's a six foot nine goalie. I want to say he's the quickest goal I've ever seen in my life at that size. There's going to be some restrictions on how well you get around the career. but he moves pretty well for a guy that size. He has decent hockey sense. And, you know, I think he's going to take a while. He hasn't even dominated the ECAC yet. You know, there's going to be a lot of work to do there.

But I think, you know, I wouldn't have talking to some scouts. There's a hope that if you hit on this guy, he could become like a Ben Bishop type with that kind of physical toolkit. I'm not saying he will be. I don't think he will be. But I think this is the guy who has parts of the makeup of an NHL goaltender. And then over in Europe, I think your top guy is in Russia. That's Maxim Siplikov from Spartak.

I hope I pronounced that correctly. But a winger with a power game, it sounds like. Yep. He's big, very skilled, great shot, had a little bit of meanness in him. Doesn't mind throwing the body around. So when you think about him, you think, oh, this sounds like Ilya, have a little big, physical, got some goal-scoring touch. And then scouts would push.

back on that, they would say he doesn't skate quite like McKayev did, McCabe was a clear NHL level skater. This guy has more below average feet. See a lot of big guys with below average feet with some skill in these lists. What makes him different? Why I just think it's the degree of offensive town we're talking about it? This is one of the top scores in the KHL right now.

I'll beat us a 25-year-old. And he plays hard, which makes you a little bit more comfortable with his game translating to the higher levels, even though he isn't the best skaters. I think this guy has a decent chance to be a bottom six-wing. I know there's a lot of NHL interest in this player. The big fish from a free agent perspective right now in Russia is Vassilia Tanisov in Torpedo. We've talked about him on another episode of this podcast.

His deal's up in one year, not this summer. So this is probably going to be the guy like Graf. We're talking about a lot this time next year. All right. Great stuff. Check that out on the athletic. And we're going to take a quick break. Be right back.

And we're back. And usually we're on this show talking about articles that I do. or that my colleague Scott Wheeler does or Chris Peters at Flow Hockey. But today we're going to be discussing about an article that Max wrote about the NHL draft at the Athletic. The first edition, I believe, of the consensus big board where Max will take an average of the rankings by Scott, Chris, myself, and using the scout poll that TSN's Bob McKinsey does to try and paint a best attempt at projecting how the draft will actually go. and where the thoughts around the industry tend to be right now. And Max, looking at this list right away, what was the first thing that immediately stood out to you?

Yeah, well, so when I go to turn it into an article, obviously, I take the averages of the list and I, you know, create the composite ranking. And then I try to split it up into different categories to make it a little more digestible. and one of the ones I like to do is the biggest variance from the highest ranking to the next highest ranking on a guy. And this year it was not even worth a category. It was there was not the kind of variance that we saw, particularly last year, it was really notable on some guys. And this year, you know, you, Scott and Chris and the scouts in Bob's list were pretty close. There's a few exceptions, and we'll talk about a couple of those here. But I thought that was interesting.

And I guess I'd kind of want to turn that on you, Corey. Is that reflective of an industry idea of when you talk to scouts, when you talk to executives, is there a feeling that there's a really clearly defined group here with an especially, I guess I'd say, the top 15 to 20? Well, I look at the from last year's draft. I think of the guys who either shot up as a season went on or went a lot higher than people expected. And they were almost all European players.

and some of them in situations where people couldn't watch them regularly. I'm thinking of David Reinebacher in Austrian playing in Switzerland, where I know in the second half of this season, NHL scouts were flooding the building when he was playing in Switzerland, but that was not a guy who was commonly known. When he played the World Juniors on national television, his team never had to puck the entire game. So I think he lacked a little bit of exposure.

Then you have the Russian situation where Muttfe Mitzkhov had been commonly known and on national TV several times and had a lot of hype behind him. But your typical fan didn't know about Dimitri Simashev very well, didn't know about Daniel Bout very well. Nick Danielson, even though he's playing in Canada, it was never a Heleneke-Gregowski, never to World U18s, never heard of World Juniors. So I think there was a lot of guys off the beat in track a little bit. I don't think in Russia you have that big an issue this year. The top guy Ivan Demadov may not have been in a major national event, but he was probably going to be a two-time MVP of the Russian Junior League, so people are well aware of him.

People seem to be on Igor Turner Shop. I don't think that was going to surprise anybody if he goes top 15, top 20. So I think that's a big distinction. And then Tom Wallander kind of just shot as the year went on with his playover in Sweden. So I'm looking at the consensus guys this year. It's a lot of Canadians, the Europeans that are hot. I don't think are like, you know, guys that name that would surprise you. But it is typically a lot of Canadians, a lot of Americans really high on this list.

So that's kind of why I think you're not seeing a ton of variance. Does that make sense? Yeah, no, for sure it does. And it does make it even more interesting, I'd say, that Carter Yakumchuk, who is certainly kind of that all-Canadian, so to speak, defensemen, you're significantly higher than the other three rankers on him. You've got him at third. I think the next highest on him was ninth or 10th, 10th from Chris Peters.

I know we've talked about him on the show recently enough. And I think you and Scott even debated him a couple weeks back. But were you – I mean, I know you see some of these rankings when they come out. Did it jar you at all to see how much higher on Yakumchuk than the other three rankings here? No, it didn't jar me because I've heard these debates within the league. There are some teams that are super high on this player who, have him right around where I have him. And there are some that have him closer to where the consensus is or where the low people

have him. They worry about his skating. They worry about his defensive play. I don't think he's the most technically smooth skater you'll ever see in your life. But I think he's a good skater. He's a powerful skater. I see him get by plenty of people. The WHL double pull away from pressure closes gaps well enough.

And not the main thing about his game. It gets you excited. But for me, not an issue. I think he can skate in the NHL. But that's the divide. Because if everybody thought he was a good. skater and a good defender, then you would have a potential 30, 35 goal scoring defenseman in the WHOHL who's big and physical.

And I don't think there would be a lot of debate. So I think that that debate reflects, I think, what's going on in the NHL scouting circles as well. The skating on the big defenseman is always fascinating because you think about how much better it always looks when they get to age 23, 24, 25. They're in their man body, so to speak. They have the requisite muscle to move that much size around. And I wonder, does that make you a little more forgiving of a defenseman who, it doesn't look as graceful, perhaps, as a Sam Dickinson?

But you know at that size, when the muscle comes, it could look a whole lot better. Yeah, possibly. I kind of still think he's a good skater. I've seen, like, you can, whenever I go watch him play, I think he gets around fine. Like I said, he pulls away from pressure easily, carries puckes up the ice pretty, well. I don't see there be an issue. I know there's a lot of buzz on him. So the CHL top prospects game, he tested very poorly in the skating drills, like he was on the bottom in a lot of categories. So I think that's enough alarms. In my history,

watching that testing a lot. I love data. I'm a data first kind of guy. I use it all the time. But that's definitely, that testing is definitely more of an eye test for me than it is for using the data. I've seen a lot of bad skaters test well and a lot of good skaters. test poorly in those testings. I don't think it's the best process. And so I don't put a ton of stock into that, but I know some were alarmed by it. Well, the flip side of that, I guess,

is one of the guys we just mentioned. That's Sam Dickinson, who I think tested quite well by those metrics and that I would say matches the eye test for me on him. He's a guy that came in at seventh on our list with remarkable consistency, right? Like kind of the theme of the board. Highest ranking was Chris at six.

lowest ranking was Scott at eight. That's like a consensus, solidly consensus top 10 player. Where do you think he actually goes? Is that a reflection there? Or when you hear everyone kind of really likes this guy, can that elevate someone even more? Yeah, I think I did my last list about a month ago this time, late January. I'm going to put a new one in a couple of weeks here. And I think Sam's going to be higher than I had him before. I mean, London's been on such a tear over the last few months. He's been one of their best players over that span. He's putting up really good numbers for a defenseman.

The skating is outstanding. As I continue to watch him this year, I think I just continue being impressed by him by how much offense he's showing, by how good a defender he is because of his feet, the size. He has enough compete and jam in his game as well. When I watch this guy, it's hard for me not to think of some of those premium, big defense prospects we've seen over the years, guys like Ahampas Linholm,

guys like Jake Sanderson. So I think, and I understand the offensive upside tantalizing guys like Ivan Demadov and Cole Eiserman. I understand Ardeu Knoff has more offense in his game, but just knowing what NHL teams tend to covet, I think the 6-3

highly mobile defensemen, one of the best skaters in this draft, even at that size, who is showing legit offense on an elite CHL team, I think that player is going to be a top five pick when it's all said and done. Well, you just compared him to Lev Shunov, who sounded like favorably to Liv Shunov,

who finished second overall on this list. Is there a chance Sam Dickinson's the first defender off the board? I think there is. Yeah, I just think when you think of the tool, I think all those guys are in the discussion. I think I could call any NHL scout right now and ask him who's their top defense been. I think between Anton Selyev, Dickinson, let's shoot up and you're actually, Chuck.

I'll get a different answer. Wow. Going to be a really interesting D class. I mean, that was kind of the other trend here was this is such a strong defense class. And you look at last year and I think it was actually at the time of the consensus, the final consensus, Big Board, I don't think we had a single defenseman in the top 10 of that one. Three obviously go in the top. I want to say 11 is where Malander went last year.

But this year, if you just look at that top 11, I think we have six defensemen in our ranking here in the top 11. So it will be a really distinct difference from last class in that way. And the other two defensemen, Zane Perrex, Zee, Boyum, they just keep playing really well and just keep impressing NHL scouts. I think when it's all said and done, there's a very good chance six defensemen go on the top ten of this draft. That's awesome.

That's going to make a really interesting draft day. And obviously, those are the classes that I think are the most fun to monitor because you have so many top guys that are so comparable to one another so early. One thing I wanted to ask you about putting this together, I talked about kind of that top group, and I saw it as kind of maybe 15 to 17 as maybe you can even get to 20, I guess, on seem pretty broad agreement on. Beyond that, though, there's something really interesting that happens in the last 10 to 12 spots and the draft starts to look like a lot of small offensive D.

a lot of smaller skilled wingers. I know this is a topic we've talked on the show a lot about, but did you have a reaction to seeing that at all? I just would doubt that's going to be the reality in June. I said looking through the article. Not that I don't think some of these guys are really good players, but because you rank them. You're part of it.

You rank them in that same range in a lot of cases. Right. Right. Some of them I didn't, but a lot of them I did too. I just think when you think of how Intel draft tends to go, like at 21, we got Aaron Kibahar. He was a five-night defenseman,

25, Cole Hudson, 510 defenseman, Tanner Howthin, 5.9.5 wing, Ryder Richie, 511 wing, Nikita Art Tamanov, 510.5. Wing, Henry Mew, 6-0 defenseman. Terrick Parishak, 511 wing. Andrew Bashap, 511 wing. When I think of what the H.L teams to the covet,

which is a little bit more size, centers, defensemen, I just have a hard time envisioning all of those player types going in the top 32 picks, I think of some bigger players. I think of Dominic Bidinka, 6-3 mobile defensemen playing S-H-L games.

I think of Adam Kleber, 6-5 mobile physical defensemen, who's playing very well in the U.S.HL has a chance to be on the World Championship team for USA this April. Merrick Vanekir in Brannford, Montemez-Sherav in Russia, Julius Mietnan and Everett, E.J. Emery with the program. I'm trying to think of anyone else who might be missing. you know, what maybe I didn't say Skaan, Jesse Polkinen. I think there's a bunch, Dean Laterno, I think, is a know I know a guy. A lot of teams have as a potential late first six, seven center playing at St.

Andrews College. I just think those are the names that you'll probably see more as the late first high seconds. I remember going to the draft last year, we're talking about Ichengoche and Andrew Kristol and Riley Hight. I might be forgetting some, you know, Grayson Sotchen, those type of names. And then who actually goes there are guys like Nico Maito Maito. Lovac, Kessper, Houtun, Anton Walberg, Callum, Ritchie, Strammell, Bonk, David Edstrom. So I just think there won't be any of those 511 wings who go there. I just think it's probably not going to be proliferated with those player types.

Yeah, to your point, if you take kind of those same parameters, really the only guys in that range last year were Perot, Bradley Nadegh, Tanner Mollandik, Goliath, and I guess Otto Stenberg is on the smaller side. I don't know if he's quite as small, but small. than I think he's under six foot, right? Yeah, he's about 511, 511.5. Again, I'm not saying none of those guys are going to go in the first round. I'm surprised that there's eight of them. Totally, yeah, for sure.

All right, let's take a break there, and we're going to come back with the mailbag. All right, Corey, it's mailbag time. We've got a really good one right off the top from Jeff's Penguins, who wants to know what kind of young NHL player and top prospect the Penns should target in a Jake Gensel trade. This is fascinating for a bunch of reasons, but I think we could probably just start here with like, What would you do with Jake Gensel as Kyle Dubas here?

It's a great question. I think there's so many ways you can go about this. First, I would ask off the top, like, how good do we really, really think Jake Gensel is? I think it's always been a fascinating question for me when I think of, like, the all-time great draft picks and the guys who've had significant success in the later rounds. Jake Gensel always comes up. Huge numbers in the NHL, a ton of success, especially given to where he was picked, really skilled, really intelligent. but I can't say I've dug into Gensel in a lot in recent years, but I've always kind of had the question of the, you know,

what if scenario if he wasn't always playing with Crosby all the time. And that's always kind of been a question in my mind. Not that I don't think he's a really good player. I think in like a return for him, I'm thinking of like the Max Patcheretti trade, for example, where they got a significant return. you're hoping to get a top prospect back. You're hoping to get a really high draft pick back,

maybe two significant future assets. Even though he's a wing, he's still a really high scoring wing. It's interesting to me, though, because I think what you want, if you're going to get the draft pick, is you're probably not going to see the benefit of that draft pick, even if it's a relatively early first rounder by deadline standards, for three, four years, which I think is after when you're Pittsburgh, you know, when it's going to be really useful to you.

Obviously, it's simple. You have to restock. I think if you're doing it, though, you're probably getting that pick to flip for a different player, though, right? Like, is that if you can't get the young player that you want directly in return for Gensel, you have to be thinking of it, can I get a pick that I can trade for a different young player to put Nexus Sydney Crosby going forward. I think the penguins are a real conundrum. I mean, we always like to give opinions on what we think teams should do. We think we have all the answers. But I look at the situation, and I think I have no idea what they're.

should do to be quite honest. Like I've heard their general manager, Kyle Dubas, talk about how they need to get younger. And it's like, okay, well, what does that look like in practice? What does younger mean? Like getting 18-year-olds or getting 23-year-olds? Because that's a big distinction. And it's, you talk about flipping the pick and are flipping,

you know, or trying to turn something into more actionable NHL players because we are acting under the assumption that Sidney Crosby isn't going anywhere that of Guinea-Mulkin isn't going anywhere right now. now, they're not, unless something really changes, that they're not doing a complete blowup of this core and that they're still going to try and get younger while also trying to still make the playoffs and still trying to win, which is a line. I've never seen anybody really balanced effectively, but we'll see whether they do it or not. But it's, it's really

interesting situation. I've seen our writers, whether it's Sean Gentile, whether there's Josh Yote, talk about how they need to trade whatever futures they have. have, you know, try and make this team as best as they can right now, even though they're probably not going to be a playoff team for two years in a row right now. I've talked to NHL personnel who are like, you know, I would trade Rayne Yeager. I would trade Owen Pickering because realistically, when are those guys going to help make a difference for you? All right. It's probably not going to be Wall of Sydney Crosby, still in the NHL.

So it's like, what's the plan here? And it's tough to say what the plan should be because, again, this is not a good team. They haven't been in the playoffs now. probably going to be for two years running. It's hard to imagine how they make this roster much, much better, especially if they move Jake Gensel. Maybe they extend them, who knows. But if you don't try and get futures,

when Crosby is ready to move on, it's going to be really tough because you're going to start with nothing. And you think of like any other organization that has truly done like a tear-down rebuild. They usually start with something. Because even if they know that something isn't on your next playoff team, it could be part of the assets you move in a deadline five years from now that help you become a playoff team. So it could be, you know, people always talk about a five-year plan for a rebuild. If the penguins don't get more assets into their organization, when the dark days come, it's going to be like an eight to ten year rebuild. The only franchise I can think of, I was trying to rack my brain when you said I don't think I've ever seen someone straddle that line gracefully.

would Dallas count? Like they were kind of able to do it around Sagan and Ben who aren't Crosby and Malkin but it did take like an all-time treated for Sagan though. They did but they already kind of had them there when they kind of had to you know walk because they go they get the year where they are drafting

third overall and you're like well they're on the hook for these contracts. But it did take an all-time draft in that year in 2017 to basically get them out of it with Haskin and Robertson and Audinger. Yeah. I mean, any time you have a massive draft where you get significantly overvalue players,

not over value, but over their draft pick value. Yeah. It helps a lot. It's why Detroit was able to contend for so long because they kept getting late round value when they shouldn't have been getting it. And it just extended the window. So you can always say, yes, if like some fourth round pick for Pittsburgh really, really hits, it can help extend the window.

If, like, use of one of the problems, if, like, Mikhail Ilyan in Russia becomes a really good top six forward, sure, it could change things. If Owen Pickering

becomes like a top pair defenseman, sure, it could change things. But it's, you know, I've had this debate with other organizations when they've been in this situation. And it's basically your plan,

quote unquote, is to basically be smarter than the rest of the league and get draft steals. Like, I don't think that's a great plan. Yeah, it's a matter of how many times can you expect something like that to happen to you? Because frankly, the penguins have had something like what you just described happened to them.

His name is Jake Gensel. So I guess. And Brian, Brian Rust. That's right. You know, and, you know, Jerry's been very solid for them. And I'm not saying, you know, they had got Matt Murray and he helped them when they needed him to help him. You know, I'm not saying it's impossible. And I'm not saying it's even like, I just think it takes a.

a certain level of arrogance to think that you're going to outdraft the rest of the league consistently. Yeah. So I guess to tie a bow on the question, what kind of young NHL player and top prospects should they target in the Gensel trade? It's not really, there's not one great answer here, partly because I think, you know, you look at some of the teams that we've heard around, you know, linked to Jake Gensel and reports. I don't know that they're the teams that have the bustling farm systems always to make you really thrilled with something like this. I mean, you, you know, the Oilers are one of the teams you've kind of heard linked to Jake Gensel. Are you that juice about Philip Broberg as the return? No, but I think just like I said, when the Patcher Ready trade where they got Nick Suzuki in that trade, I think you prefer a 19 to 20 year old prospect because I like Broberg.

I think he could be a four or five defenseman in the NHL, maybe a three if things really turn around in his development. I prefer to that. I think he could be on your team next year, as opposed to a first round pick. Yeah. It's probably going to be a late first round pick, and that you're hoping he'll be a regular for you in four years from now. I'm sure Cross,

you'll get really excited about that. All right. Next one's from Kevin, who says, can you compare Ivan Demadov to Motve Michkov? Who do you think will be a better player based on what, and who do you think will be a better player so far based on what we've seen from Lane Hudson and Cole Hudson?

All right. Those are two different analysis. Let's focus on Devedov versus Mitchcock for a second, because, you know, same organization. I guess technically, Michkov hasn't played for SCA regularly in two years, but technically they're both SCA players.

I think Demadov is a much more competitive player than Mitchcov is. Like he's hard, he gets to the net, he wins a lot of battles, he attacks pucks. So you like that tenacity in his game a little bit more. I think his skating strides a little wonky for me, but he's much more powerful,

elusive skater than Mitchcov is. and while he has a ton of skill, I don't think he quite has the natural offensive touch that Mitchcoff has. I think Mitchcoff's hockey senses off the charts, there's creativity, the way he sees plays develop and makes plays. Devidoff has elite skill,

but I think Mitchcoff's skills is another level or two, frankly, higher. Mitchcov is a really interesting player to evaluate. I still think really, really highly the player, and just for the reason I just said, extremely skilled. extremely intelligent, great natural score. But if you were a detractor, you would say, well, this is, you know, now two years in

a row this supposed elite prospect can't make the team he signed with. Not a great skater, small, average competitor, you know, flags against him. But you'll be like, well, the production is so good. It's like, yeah, it's on a bad team. And, you know, elite Paul Vanden lit up the KHL too, but he didn't have the feet or the size to translate to the higher level. So those are the arguments against him. people who would like Demodov would say,

I think his game is a more of a natural fit for the NHL. But for me, Eileen Mitchkov, I just think he has his issue, a lot of issues. We discussed him a lot in his draft year. I think the offensive abilities are just so elite across the board,

elite offensive abilities that I think he will find a way to be a real difference maker in the NHL. And then in terms of Cole versus Lane Hudson, I think you like that Cole's a little bit bigger. I think he's a little bit more physical than Lane. I still think you're just like, lane, you're going to have questions on how well he's going to defend as a pro. So I think he's a pretty good skater and he does defend hard.

I don't view him as like a matchup player by any means in the pros. And I don't think he has quite the dynamic abilities that Lane does. I think he is very good offensively. He has really good hockey since he's very skilled. Probably skates better than Lane does. But I don't think he thinks the game like Lane doesn't break shifts open the way the lane does. and for that reason I would lean towards Lane, although I don't think it's a giant gap between the two players.

So Lane went in the third round, or was it late second or early third? I think it was late second. Late second. He had to wait really a really long time. Here's a name called, and we just talked about it on our consensus board. We got them, I think, in the late 20s there. What's the bigger reason for Cole being so much higher on our, I don't remember if we did a consensus big board lanes here?

But do you think it's more to do with the size? or do you think it's more to do with how good Lane has been and people kind of coming around to that as being maybe more willing to rank Lane or Cole a little higher than Lane was? I think there's size as a variable. I think when you say 510 defensemen, there's at least 10 names you could think of in the NHL.

When you said 5-8 defensemen, there was nobody you could think of. Lane would be the extreme outlier in that regard. And while some NHL teams really do like Cole, I think most don't. I think most view him as, a second or third round pick. I think that is not reality on draft day.

I do not think he'll be a late first or even a high second. I think he will go closer to where Lane went, quite frankly. All right. All right. Next one I think is a really interesting one from Grant, who wants to know about the ascent of the U.S.-based junior in amateur leagues, the U.S.HL, the NCAA, relative to the CHL. I think this is stuff that we're seeing more and more,

especially you look at some of the high-level Canadians, Macklin Celebrity would be one, Owen Power would be another. Kent Johnson, a couple years back. choosing to go the USHL and then NCAA routes as opposed, Ken Johnson did the BCHL, not the USHL, but then the NCAA routes as opposed to the CHL. Well, I think you're going to see just as many Canadians picked in the first round this year who have played in the USHL as Americans

between Celebrini, Sasha Boehrae and Michael Hage, and I think the Americans would be Zeve Boyum, Iserman, and Trevor Connolly. And it's hard to say what an exact reason is, obviously the USHL has continued to build in price, prominence and attract players. It's hard not to think of the COVID seasons, playing at least some variable in this. Not that I think kids are worried that the CHL is going to shut down again or something along

those lines. But I think, you know, during those couple of seasons, particularly the year where the CHL was shut down and the USHL was playing, they got a lot more PR. they got, you know, it was a lot more evident, you know, to people who followed junior hockey in the draft that this was the league that was carrying on and whether you could agree to your policy based on whatever you thought of what was going on with COVID at the time. It's hard not to think of that when you think of the fact that in that draft season you had guys like Owen Power who played in the USHL. For example, you had Cole Sillinger go play in the USHL. You had Matthew Coronado playing the USHL, Mackie Sammask. I it's hard out to think of that season at least playing some part in the fact that you've seen the growth of the USH over the last few years in terms of a priority for Canadian European players.

In terms of European players, too, you have Artie Leshunov who played the NHL because the CHL is not accepting Russians or Belosians. I think there's all a bunch of reasons. Obviously, college hockey's been a great place for the loving players. I don't think there's one reason. There's definitely some factors that stand out significantly to me. in the last few years. All right. Next one is from Mike,

who wants to know how far could Cole Eisenman fall come draft day. Again, this is all kind of relative here, right? Like, if you're thinking of Cole Eisenman coming into this season as the potential top three pick, how far he could fall might be a little more dramatic than, you know, more recently I think we've talked about him as more of a back half of the top 10 guy.

But nonetheless, like, where do you see him kind of going come draft day? I think he'll still go very high. as you said, he's no doubt first round pick, exceptional score at the junior level over the last two seasons. You know, there are, even though I think his last few weeks have been better in terms of things to do it with other than his goal scoring, I think there are still significant concerns on this player as a 60 wing, average playmaker, average compete on where that fits in the NHL. We've talked before when you think of Alex Holpheelps, Edina Owen Tippett, Oliver Wallstrip, even Cole Cofield, who's then, you know, the major hit of that kind of player type. The shoot first winger tends to rub NHL evaluators the wrong way.

And, you know, I think you see those guys go a little bit later than people tend to mock them early on. Like I think of, you know, Oliver Walsh was supposed to be a top five, six picks. You know, Zadip, maybe he was a little later than people expected. Same thing with Zedina. Same thing with Coffield. Same thing. You can say with Owen Tippett to an extent. So I think of guys like Walsham and Tippett because maybe the size is a little bit closer there,

even Zadino a little bit too. I think like 8 to 12, I think is his projected range right now. I just think of all the centers and all the defensemen in this draft, not a ton of centers, but enough that I think teams are really excited about. And I think when push comes to shove, like I think we talk about this in the consensus board segment. I have a really hard time seeing when teams meet and the management gets involved. And you're talking about Sam Dickinson, who's a 6-3 excellent skating offenseman, who's a point per game on a top OHL team. And teams saying, no, let's take the 60 goal score wink instead.

I just think of all those centers and defensemen, I think seven to age is when the conversation starts for Reiserman. Yeah, I mean, the parallel there is probably something like Jake Sanderson and Alexander Holtz, if you want to do not bad. Anderson versus Drysdale. Right. Yes, that too. Yeah. Yeah, I just think the big mobile guys, and obviously, yes, Holtz would be a more direct comparison in terms of the two player types, but I just think of like guys that teams tend of value really

highly. Yeah, for sure. All right, J.P. Claremont wants to know about Tija Ginla and if he could reach Star territory in terms of his projection. If so, what tools is he needed to add or improve it or to do so? Ginla's been one of the bigger risers this whole year already. So certainly the arrow is trending up there. It is trending up.

I do think he, this is a guy who may have an opportunity to play for Team Canada. I think, you know, Colonna is a decent team this year. They're not a top team. The U-A teams worlds are starting later this season than usual. We will be able to get two full rounds of CHL playoffs done before Canada has to name their roster. I think that will give a real opportunity to a guy like a Gindlin to go play for Team Canada, play against Team USA,

where I think is going to be a really good Finland team and see where he stacked up against his age group, which he didn't get to do in the summer at the Hulinkogretzky was an invited to that team wasn't considered a top prospect at the time because as you said, his star has risen significantly as a season has progressed, 40 goals already as we speak, really skilled player. I talked to some teams that have him in the top 10.

Most don't. I think depending on how his tournament would go, would basically give you an answer in terms of how high he's going to go in the draft. All right. Blake wants to know who's currently the favorite to go first overall in 2025. I keep hearing more and more about Brandel. Obviously, two of the other names we've talked about at various points in the show, James Hagan's and Michael Mesa. Are we looking at a triumvirate there or what's the status in 2025? I think it's wide open.

I think the name we've always been saying is James Higgins. But the feedback of the game from a lot of NHL teams lately about that is don't put that in stone. Not they don't think that James Hagan's isn't a dynamic skater or really skill, but they don't see like this no doubt first overall type. I think you mentioned Misa. He's in the mix. I think Frundel is definitely in the mix.

I think Porter-Martoin and Mrs. Saga is in the mix. I think Roger McQueen from Brandon is in the mix. All those guys have really good arguments to be at the top of the draft. What the order is we'll see in a year and a half from now. But I think those are the names that come to mind right away. but I wouldn't say, I think there's been a lot of guys in the program who've struggled this year.

I think of, you know, I know they have good numbers, but I don't think Hagen and Eisenman from what I've seen this year have blown you away, like, holy hell, they're elite players, there's no doubt about it.

I think a lot of those defensemen like Will Skaya and E.J. Emory have disappointed to an extent. Hensler came out of the game flying, came out of the gates flying in the first half and then kind of slow down the season has gone on. I think there's a lot of guys on that program team who have a lot to prove at the April tournament.

I don't think their season has gone very well. Right out, the program is last in their conference in the USHL. So I don't, I think we thought Hagan was the guy early on. I still think he's among the guys. I don't think he is the guy. All right. And then last one is from Koharski's Donuts. Where is Alexander Holtz?

We just talked about him in his development. And is he worth moving for a goalie like Jacob Markstrom? Or should the devils be looking at him as a longer term piece? This is a little bit of a two-parter here. So let's just start first with Holtz as a prospect. Like, where do you see him in his development? How close to being what he's going to be, is he? I mean, I think he's been fine.

Like, I don't think he's been bad this year. Obviously, he's not playing a ton. And he has limitations in this game, not the best skater, not the hardest to play. But he's really skilled. He's a natural goal score. He's shown enough offense this year to be intriguing. I think he looks like a good player. He looks like a replaceable player, too.

Like, I wouldn't let him be the difference between you and taking a major upgrade and important position be the difference. Like, I don't think your organization is. significantly hampered. If you lose him, just like I don't think the devils would be significantly hampered because they lost Shakir Macamadoulin. I think that's the kind of similar analysis. I like Colts.

I like McCamaduland. I'd want them in my organization. I think they can play in the NHL for a long time. But I don't think there's of such importance to make them not tradable. All right. That's going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect series. Right now, you can get a one-year subscription to the Athletic

for $2 a month when you visit theathletic.com slash hockey show. It's a great way to keep up with Corey and Scott and all their work, especially at this time of year. That's going to do it for us. We'll talk to you soon.