The Athletic Hockey Show - Are Juraj Slafkovsky and Shane Wright NHL ready?, re-drafting the 2018-2021 classes, listener questions, and more

Episode Date: October 21, 2022

On a brand new episode of The Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series, Max and Corey analyze how both Juraj Slafkovsky and Shane Wright have fared in the early goings of their respective NHL careers and then the guys deep dive into Corey’s re-drafts of the 2021, 2020, 2019, and 2018 NHL Drafts, closing things out answering a bunch of listener questions in the mailbag. Now, you can get a 6 month subscription to The Athletic for just $1 a month when you visit http://theathletic.com/hockeyshowSubscribe to The Athletic Hockey Show on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3BKz27u Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Corey Pronman, back with another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show's prospect series. We are without Chris Peters today. We do have a packed show to talk about Corey's redrafts have been coming out all week. We're going to talk about his placement on those. But I want to start Corey with the NHL season, the early returns on a couple of the top prospects from the 20. 2022 draft, Shane Wright and Ureis Levkovsky, the only two right now in the NHL. And I wonder, based on what you've seen in this first week, do you think they're going to stay there for long?

I would say on both, the very, very early returns look like they're not ready. That doesn't mean that they can't get to a point where they look like their NHL players this season and get to a point where they can help their team win hockey games. obviously both Seattle and Montreal I would argue are teams that are probably heading towards the bottom of the standings at some point in season, exactly where on the standings we'll see as the season progresses

but neither of them are a great team so they have opportunities to play their guys and give them some opportunities although I don't think either them are really getting much ice time neither am on the power play Shane Wright was healthy scratching a couple of games already this season and I think eventually with Wright where

you have to send him back to CHL and you can't send back to an American league like you can with Slavkovsky you're probably got to make that decision sometime in the next few weeks on whether you want to not have really going to keep him up all year but when you get to the nine game point that's a decision variable and then the 40 game points

another decision variable on whether you go send him to the CHL or not and I think my lien right now would be to send both right to the CHL and Sofkowski to the American league. Obviously those with Slavkovsky case, if he plays really well down there, maybe you can bring him back up.

So they can maybe be a little bit more, a little bit more patient with him and kind of see how we adjust to the NHL over these next few weeks. But I would not say from what I've seen either than really look at NHL ready right now. I think they'll both be excellent players with time. And they've had, especially Slavkowski, I've seen, you know, some flashes here and there that look good. But I don't think either of them look ready to help an NHL team right now. Yeah, Montreal came through Detroit last weekend. And so I got to see Slavkovsky live. You know, like you said, I don't think he was like bad.

It just didn't, he didn't stand out. It didn't look like he was ready to make a big impact. And with a player of that importance level to your franchise, that's the key for both of these guys, right? It's not about, you know, sending him down to punish or anything like that. It's just a matter of they need reps. They need minutes, probably more, certainly in Shane Wright's case, more than he's gotten so far. And Slavkovsky, who I believe was even in the top nine. early in the season. I think I saw him down on the fourth line the other night.

So I think that's really the key. It's just managing two young guys here. With how important those players are to those organizations' futures, and given that they are, you know, the high-end picks, they're offensive guys, not having those guys get the puck a lot, not having them on the power play, it's probably not ideal for the development. I believe Martin St. Louis, when he was asked about that, it kind of opened the door that, you know, over the course of the year, he would be open to bringing stuff,

Kofsky into the power play. But if he doesn't look ready, doesn't look ready to help your team, you have other options. The American League is not the worst thing in the world for a guy in that situation, especially given that he did not, he has not really had that consistent,

you know, year versus men, because he didn't do that in TPS in the league last season. Nothing wrong I think was sending the American League. And hopefully he kind of makes an impact down there and gets those touches versus men, gets that confidence, then you bring them up maybe midseason again, and hopefully it goes better. Well, and we saw last year, I think we even talked about Owen Power and Buffalo kind of did

future teams a favor by having Power spend the majority of his draft plus one, not in the NHL. That was a trend that probably needed to be broken. Power and Buffalo did break it. But what is interesting here, if both of these guys do indeed kind of leave their clubs in the near future here, last year we still had Cole Cillinger in the NHL. And I think this would be the first time in a while that we've got no draft, no draft plus one guys in the league off this most recent draft. Yeah, I actually can't even remember the last time it would happen. I forget maybe Eric Johnson's draft. I don't remember if anybody from that one was in there the year after.

Obviously, Johnson wasn't in the NHL, so that's why I thought of that one initially. I believe, I think Spenceau went back the one year, but I think Kovilchuk was in the league already. So I think you really got to go way back there to think of one. And obviously, Simon Nemich, David Yerichick, both had really good camps for New Jersey and Columbus, respectively. I could see them come up with points during the year if they get into injury issues. But this could, you know, we'll see what these teams decided to do with Wright. And Salkowski, you know, Seattle, for example, when Ron Francis was asked about it,

said he thinks he could be up all year. But given how the early returns look, we'll see whether they stick to that or not. This could be very well be a draft class where you don't have a legit full-time NHL player the year after the draft occurred. Quick glance, I do think Jordan Stahl did play in that Eric Johnson year. But I wonder, like, is there like a takeaway that we would have from this? Is this something that we think NHL teams are maybe getting more comfortable, not moving players along so quickly? It's interesting because I think when I think about the direction of the NHL, I think, hey,

that younger players are getting more and more important. But I do wonder if there's an element to this where we see what happened with Owen Power, and I think multiple young defensemen have been kind of taken their time getting to the league. Now, this year we could have no draft plus one for the bulk of the year. Do we think teams are just getting more comfortable with that? Is it more of a product of just the two classes as a standalone products? I think it's a combination, probably more the second than the first. I think we had a couple years in a row where you really lack that no doubt high-end guy,

was going to come into the league and help your team right away. I think next year you're going to have one or more of those guys. So I think maybe it just averages out there where you have zero and then you have maybe two or three of them in the following year. But I definitely think with defensemen, you're seeing teams very much take a cautious approach. I think you can ask a lot of the NHL scouts. They would have said Luke Hughes, for example, was ready to come into the NHL and help the devils. But I think that's been the development path with a lot of those young defensemen is

take that extra time, develop your defense to play, come into the league and beat a position where the coach can trust you. Well, you mentioned Luke Hughes. I want to get into some of your redraft articles that have been posting this week. And we can start with Luke Hughes's draft, the 2021 NHL draft. And you have him in a redraft as the number one overall pick, you know, a year and a half later. Yeah. And I wouldn't say that's a consensus opinion. I think you could ask, I think, Eddie Scout and the league about those top four guys. Luke Hughes, Matthew Baneers, Owen Power, Mason McTavish, and you would get, I think, almost every iteration of those four ranked. I think everyone has their favorites for forever reason. Mine is Hughes, just because I think that the toolkit is just really unique and dynamic.

But obviously, Baneers has looked awesome this year in Seattle. Owen Power is a really unique type of hockey player, not many defensemen his size who can skate and have offense. Mason McTavish, obviously, he's had a great year last. year is full of talent and competitiveness. But yeah, I would, if on my personal list, I would favor Luke right now as the best player from that class. My first thought looking through that re-rank from that draft is that the top 10 got it

pretty close. Maybe not 100% bullseye on the order, but that tier has so far turned out to be pretty correct. You got Hughes at one, Baneer's Power, 2, 3, McTavish, who went 3, is at 4, Genther, who was at 9, went 5, Edvinson holding it. Kent Johnson, who was five is at seven, Cole Cylinger jumps in at eight, Brant Clark at nine, William Eklund at 10. That all pretty much holds serve.

But one of the big risers, and I think we've talked about him plenty over the last year, as he's done it, is Olin Zellwiger, who goes from being an early second round pick, and he parlayed some, just a great performance. I think it really started leading up to the draft at that U-18s, and he just hasn't slowed down. He's now at number 11 for you. Yeah, and you can debate whether he should be. that hired on as a small defenseman, but as we talked about before, I think he's a pretty special young defense, a small defenseman. I think there's a lot there to be excited about in his

game from his skating, his great skill, it's great offensive hockey sense. And the other big jump from that draft who is currently in the NHL is Wyatt Johnston. Yeah. You know, obviously he was the OHL MVP last season. Just looked outstanding with Windsor. That he goes into Dallas camp. He makes the team. He's getting real minutes for them right off the bat. Super smart player. He competes well. He's a good size centerman. This looks like a guy who's going to be a really big part of the Dallas stars for a very long time. One, one area that there's been some separation, I guess I would say. Yesper Wollstett was a guy who I think was he was the second goalie off the board in that draft. He's now, you know, at number 12, Cosa's down at number 29. You know,

obviously still still to the top consensus goalies in that class. But Wollstead in the year since has put some distance there just to create some clear separation. Yeah, I mean, they went a couple of picks apart in the actual draft. I think on my actual end of year list, I think they were literally back to back. And yeah, since then, Walsett was just outstanding in Sweden last year and COSA, who I would argue has the better pure toolkit than Walsdette, but he's been more up and down. I know you cover him more closing than I do. Is it even 100% sure where he's playing this season still right now. He started the year. His opener was in the ECHL. I don't know whether that was just because Toledo was in West Michigan in Kalamazoo. He sounds like we're recording this on

Wednesday afternoon. He's supposed to play, I think he's supposed to get his first start in the HL Wednesday night against Yaroslavaskarov, which will be fascinating to watch. But no, as far as I know, I don't think that that's settled yet. Yeah. So we'll see how obviously his year goes, where he plays and how he performs. The other interesting kind of duo that we should mention, you know, the Dallas class that had Ottinger, Robertson, and Heisken, it obviously gets a lot of attention for its importance to the Dallas Stars organization. This could be another one, though, this 20-21 class where they pull Wyatt Johnson and

Logan Stankovin, who you have at 13 and 14 on this list. I know he touched on Johnson already. But Stankovin climbs up from a second round pick to be an upper half of the first round guy for you. Obviously, it's, we don't expect it to have quite the impact of that 17th class, but another really important one potentially. Yeah, and we'll see whether Stan Coven, you know, obviously Johnson's in the NHL, we'll see when Stan Coven actually does make it, although he went deep into Dallas, his camp, had a had a, was it had a strong performance for them there, and I expect he'll have a monster, WHL season and be a huge part of the World Junior Team for Canada.

You know, I think you're kind of hoping you have maybe an ex-Connor Garland type of guy there, given his size, not, you know, a blazing fast guy, but just super competitive. and has a ton of hockey sense and skill and scoring ability. He looks like an excellent player right now and someone who I think will be an important part of their franchise. Maynodd, like Johnston, who is protected as a top two-line center. Stan Cohnko, I think, even though he's played center and junior, is probably a wing in the NHL, but a very important piece nevertheless, given his great scoring ability.

All right, let's get into the 2020 redraft then. and you've got another kind of change at number one, and I don't think a particularly surprising one, given what we've seen so far in the NHL. Tim Stutzler jumps up. It's a tier. Unlike Luke Hughes, who kind of is in a tier of his own,

a top 20-21 for you, this is a tier that goes four deep. Tim Stutzla, Lucas Raymond, Alexi Lafrenier, and Seth Jarvis. How close, I guess, is this tier for you? How much distance does Stutzla have on the other guys? It's very close.

I think you can make reasonable arguments for those top three guys to still be the number one guy. It was funny. I peaked at the country. comments in the article and there are people arguing that Alexei Lafrenier was both too high and too low. So I think that kind of shows, you know, just, you know, obviously these are still developing young players and we'll see.

And none of them I would say are true stars yet in the NHL, even though I think they will be. So there's still a lot of projection to go with there. But I leaned towards Stutzler just because the dynamic skating ability to go with the offense and that he's a center. I think are all really strong arguments in his favor. I'm going to go give you a just right on Lafranier for what it's worth. I mean, he could go maybe one spot higher or two for me, but I think he's just right where he is right now,

where you have him slotted. He's off to a nice start this year, and I think what you saw in the playoffs from him, super encouraging for Rangers fans. He's looked really good to start the season. I think the guy's a star. He's an awesome young player. He hasn't had obviously the big start to the career that you've done. you hoped he would, but he's still a great hockey player.

One that we really should talk about is Caden Gully and his rise. He's off to a nice start to start this season. Looks like a real player here for Montreal. Yeah, and obviously Montreal is a great team, so there's a lot of opportunity to be had. But he's running with that opportunity. He's looked very good to start this season. Obviously, just such a big mobile defenseman. He's so physical and competitive.

And the debate on him always was how much offense he has. And he's showing offense in the early parts through his preseason into the 8-inch start regular season. We'll see whether that's a thing that can persist over the long term. But if he keeps showing offense to go with all those other great attributes he has, it's only going to keep straining in his case as one of the best defensemen from the draft. I feel like I'm going to be earning some brownie points here with our producer, Chris, for advocating for all these Ranger guys here.

But Braden Schneider at 21, you have Lucas Cormier at 16, I mean, Alexander Nikesha, I know as a guy we should talk about at number 19. Why is Schneider not a tier higher than you have him? I think you can make like a reasonable argument. I think I think Schneider looks pretty close to Nekitian. Nekitian is showing a lot of offense right now in the KHA early on. That's the one question with Schneider, exactly how many, how much offense is going to come? Probably not a lot of opportunity on the Rangers.

You know, that's common theme. We're talking about with these Rangers guys with LaFrenier, with Schneider. We'll get to that with Keandre Miller too in terms of like, you know, on Adam box-driven team, where's the power play time come from? But I think that's kind of the debate there a little bit with that one. But I think I think I think there's a reasonable argument to move him up. One more guy in this class I want to talk about. Lucas Reichel gets himself into kind of the back half of what was the upper tier of this

class. He's number 11 on your list right behind Jack Quinn, Cole Perfetti, Jamie Drysdale, all guys who went in the top 10 of that class. And he had a good preseason. He looks like a player who can be a legit part of a top six. He had a good camp. I wouldn't say it had an amazing camp. It's partly why he was sent down in the American League,

although he got a three-point night in his first game in the American League right away. I got to imagine he's going to be up with Chicago real shortly. I know that they said they want him to be a clear top-sex guy when they bring him in. And you could have some reasonable debates on whether he already is. is, especially on that roster. But I, listen, I've nothing wrong with being patient with young guys. And I think Reichel has so many NHL assets between his skating, his hockey sense, his skills, competitiveness. I think he's going to be a really good player with time.

One thing, he doesn't really move much terms of drafts off, but I do want to know from this draft that I think Jake Sanderson has looked really good so far with Ottawa. I think that it'll be interesting to see how his, those year goes, how Ottawa's year in general goes, was how young that team is to go with those veteran additions. Because Bass Anderson, they don't look like they're weaning him in. They look like they're giving him big minutes right away. Just to wrap up, then, let's go to Nikitian, who we talked about kind of in the context of Schneider, but in his own right, he probably deserves his own topic here. He's had a really nice rise since his draft.

Yeah, honestly, he was a big part of that Russian Olympic team. Last year played a top four role. He was just traded to Scott during the offseason, just named to the KHAL all-star game, a couple days ago. He's been off to a really hot start. He's one of the best defensemen in the league right now, big, mobile, physical, showing more offense than he's shown in the past.

He looks like a hell of a hockey player. Now he just signed an extension with Scott, and he's going to be over there for a few more years. But in terms of pure ability as a player, he's one of the better defensemen in this draft. It's looked like just a matter of when can Carolina actually get him onto their roster. All right, let's dive back in with the year 2019, which, as you point out in the story,

I don't think you're going to have too many people debating what you have as the top three here. Jack Hughes, Moritz, Cider, Trevor Zegris. Yes, I'm sure you'll have people quibble on the order. But that is the clear-cut kind of upper echelon of this class at this point. Right. Things could change, obviously. I expect things might even will change because it's over, over years, players change in their development course and someone can really emerge, like Matt Boldy or Bowen Byram or whatever.

But right now, I think those three are true stars in the NHL and have clearly distinguished themselves. So my bone to pick with you then starts at the second tier, not because I don't think Dylan Cousins and Bowen Byram belong in it. They both do. Those are the two guys you have at number four and five. Why doesn't Matt Boldy? It's not just that I think you should be in it. I think I'd have him at the top of that group of players. And you could, yeah, I get it. like I'm six, so it's not like I, like, I hate, I hate the fuck.

You basically said he should be four instead of six. Yeah, yeah, fair enough. I just think those two have a little bit more of their game. I think there's the more well-rounded, particularly on the skating front, where I think Boldie is just completely driven by his skill and his hockey sense, which are both outstanding, both superior to the two cousins and Byron and those apart by significant margins. But I think it's just that element that he needs.

to, for him to be better than those guys, his offense is going to need to be so good, so consistently. And it very well could be. I think by the end of the year, he might get to that point. If he keeps playing the way he's played over his first, whatever it is, 30, 40, 50 games in the NHL. But I need to see that consistently from him, for me, to get to that point with him.

I think for me, he's already relative to cousins, I think has shown that he is a solid tier above in terms of the offensive production. I do get cousins more round a player. Byram, I don't know if I'm just getting skisons. scared by the injuries a little bit. When he's been healthy, he looks amazing. It just is going to be a concern for him. Oh yeah, 100%. Those are all legitimate concerns. I mean, yeah, he was just so good in the playoffs. But the injuries are are concerned. I give that to you. We could even talk

about, you know, you have bolley at the very top of tier three in kind of this collection of really good wingers who in their draft year and maybe even kind of beyond it to some degree came with some skating issues. Cole Caulfield, Arthur Calliath. Cawfield more, I would say, in the context of his size rather than just outright. But all three of them in your top eight here on a redraft speaks pretty well.

Right. Caliye have a little bit of a different situation than those two where he's not getting the prime opportunity that Cawfield is. And he's, I would say, play much better than him overall. But there's some rhymes there where you have three really talented wingers. A lot of offense, do it in different ways. You know, had, like I said, their awards that got picked apart a little bit in their draft year,

but all have a ton of offensive ability. Callia's ice time is not where those others two are yet, but he's still been quite productive and important for L.A. over the last year and a bit. But obviously, Coffield's been outstanding for Montreal over the last, say, 40, 50 games, and Boldie, like we said, it's been a huge part of a good team of late. one of the kind of fallers in in this article is Capocaco

who goes to number 12 I don't think it's a you know it's the projected top and middle of the lineup player you're basically still calling him a top six you know second line kind of winger but he does fall back a little bit

what he is he's looking good for the Rangers like he looks like a good top six four right now I think the question and I be curious what producer Chris has to say about this is just you know I see there's skill I see there's hockey sense

I see he's big I think see he's powerful but given he's just a so-so skater is, is the offense going to be significant enough to where he can consistently create scoring chances and work his way onto those stacked Rangers power plays and really create opportunity for himself in that lineup? I mean, the way the power play is operating right now, that top unit, nobody's going to work their way on there. I mean, they're just, they're scoring at a ridiculous clip.

They look terrific. And Vinny Trocheck is really fit in well in that unit. So, you know, making any kind of move on that top. Ranger's power play unit is is probably unlikely right now. I think the strength of Kako's game is being able to work the puck below the goal line, below the hash marks that kind of win battles along the boards, get the puck to Zabanajad or back to the point and like Kreider set up in front. I don't know if he's going to have like that elite scoring ability. I just, you know, maybe it's too soon to tell. But I think, I mean, I think he's the type of guy that's comfortably going to be in like

the 25 goal range, like when he really hits his piece. but I don't necessarily see him as a top powerplay guy, you know, in the near future there. I have them back to back on the list. So I guess I would almost beg the question, how much differed as Capo-Caco from Facilipi-Colzin, like stylistically and as overall players? I see a lot of rhymes between those two players right now. There is a lot of rhyme. I would say Caco's physical elements are still just a little bit better than Pud Coulson's, but not by a ton. Pod Colson is he's a competitive player for sure.

Right. Both not amazing skaters. Both have offense, but I don't think you ever call either of them, like, elite puck game type of guys. I think those having, I didn't even really know someone was making those, but even looking at it now, they're just having those two right next to each other, I think, kind of fits. Yeah. My one question would be, why are they a whole tier behind Kirby Doc, who I think you could say fits in with some of these same things? Maybe not the skating issue, but.

Yeah, that's kind of why. I just think because Kirby's still the big center who can skate. I still think you're hoping for some projection there, even if it's clearly not going that well over the last year in a bit. We'll see how his year in Montreal goes. And then if it's still not going well, you make some adjustments. One more big guy who had a skating issue and arguably I think still kind of does, but it just hasn't really mattered is Elmer Soderblum, who jumps up from going 159th in the 2019 and HL draft to being the number 19 player on your list here. He's a projected middle of the lineup player for you. and having seen him up close for the entire preseason and season so far has been just so fun to watch.

He's a really unique player. There isn't really anybody in the NHL at Ford who looks like him. He was that big and has legit offensive skills where he can beat guys one-on-one. He can do it in a different way because he's just so big and has such a great, has such great reach that you can just move pucks around guys in ways that they're not used to. And he can make some plays too. I don't think he's like a high-end passer, but he's shown he has good hockey sense. He can make the plays that help create scoring chances.

The feet are rough, really rough for the NHL. But when you're six foot, whatever he is six, six, seven, six feet, whatever he is. Six-eight, a legit six-eight. Yeah, whatever he is. It doesn't matter if you're not that good a skater if you have that type of size and you have legit top six skill as well. And what I think has really impressed me so far and maybe this is kind of a lesson is that even though the feet look heavy, he doesn't need that many strides until he's in a dangerous

area at that length, right? Like he'll beat a guy. This happened a few times already. He'll beat a guy on an entry and it's one stride in and he's in a shooting spot and And the crowd kind of gasps, not because the move was so crazy, but because it's one move to beat him and suddenly you're in a dangerous spot. And so I think he's going to need to take one more stride on some of those plays before they become really high danger chances. But it's coming. And I think the way that that line is worked, he's on a line with a guy who's 6-6 and Michael Rasmussen and 6-3 in Oscar Sunquist.

They are ridiculous on the cycle. He's a guy that's interesting from the talk about him from a draft perspective. If you go back to that draft that when you watch him down that U-18 team with. you know true you know at that time high-end prospects in Alexander Holts and and Lucas Raymond obviously Philip Broberg was so good he had Victor Soderstrom on their towed by as Bjornfoot a lot of first round picks on that Swedish team

and when he went to the U18 World Championships he had those flashes he had some moments that got you really intrigued but he barely played you know you start questioning the hockey sense to go with the skating but you saw the skill and the size combo thought oh that's pretty unique I don't see that a whole lot. And those concerns made himself to the sixth round. And it was almost kind of immediately after where he was so good in the Swedish Junior League, you kind of saw, okay, they might have something here.

All right. And then let's wrap this segment with 2018 that redraft. And Corey, the theme here seems to kind of be, this was one of the few years where I think you could look at it and say, did the NHL scouts overvalue the small, skilled, offensive defensemen? No, you're right. I think a common line, you see a lot. you see a lot in public writing is that

NHL teams overvalue size, that they should target the small skill players, that's where the market inefficiency is. But you really look at the 2018 draft, and there was a lot of small defensemen that were picked high that are not providing dividends yet for their team. You look at Adam Bokevist, who went eighth overall, as part of the Seth Jones trade,

and he's put up offensive numbers, but he's struggling defensively with a healthy scratch recently in a Columbus game. He's a really good player, but I would argue he wouldn't go top 10 or close to top 10 if he redid that draft. You have other small defensemen in there who were picked high. Ryan Merckley. Ryan Merckley. You have, you know, Rasmus Sandin, who's been fine with Toronto, but nothing special. You know, you have, you know, Nicholas Bowden, who's an average American League defenseman right now.

Ty Smith was just traded to Pittsburgh. He had a really good camp and I think barring cap issues he would be on the team but he's in the American League currently. I think he's a really good player still but I wouldn't call him exceeding his draft stock by any means. It does look like a year where the small defenseman doesn't seem to really

be providing that ROI. Yes, Neil's Lunkfis has looked good early for Dallas. Kail and Addison's looking good for Minnesota. Quinn Hughes. You know, Quinn Hughes is, and I think they're between Quinn Hughes and the rest of those guys is. And I think it's something I talk about when I tell people a lot. If you're going to take that small defenseman, he better be a really freaking good skater. Like really good.

And that's what Quinn is. That's what Samuel Gerard is. That's what Kalin Addison is. They need to be awesome skaters to go with that offense they have. Because if they're just nice skaters, kind of like what Bochrist is, kind of like what Lunkfist is, Merkley, Sandeens and OKK skater, Bowden's. an okay skater. Tysmith is a nice skater, but not like an exceptional one. You know, you're that they either need to be super competitive or I got to have a world-class hockey sense.

And you see the defensemen that have really immersed in this draft are the defensemen with that size and two-way ability. You know, uh, Noah Dobson, Evan Bouchard, Martin Favari, Kiannoy, Milla, Matia Samuelson. Those are the guys that are currently playing. really important roles and some of them on really good teams. Well, let's start with Samuelson because he just is coming off the contract. He's in the news. What has he done to establish himself as a player? I think you've got him 13 here, if I'm not mistaken.

Yeah. What has he done to kind of establish himself as a player who could jump from the first pick of the second round into the top half of the first round? I just think, you know, and I've struggled with Samuelson over the last few years. I wondered how much offense it was going to be. And I think he's showing there's enough secondary offense in his game, enough puck moving. He has good hockey sense.

Not great, but good enough to go with 6-4. Good skater for the size. Very physical and competitive. So it's just a combination of the size, the feet, the physicality, and enough secondary offense where you're thinking, okay, this is going to be an important top four defenseman. It may not put up the biggest numbers. He doesn't have to on that team, mind you,

with the one overall picks they have back there. But, you know, they have them on that pairing right now with Dalline. and those two are vivin. Did you like the contract? I thought it was a little aggressive for a guy who's never going to have big scoring numbers, but he's a very good player. And I think it's Paul, I don't think he's going to outproduce that value over the next few years,

but I think you're hoping that he continues to develop and mature physically, and by the time he's 23, 24, 25 maybe, you're hoping you're getting surplus value there, which I think is possible, because eventually if the cap keeps rising. That's the key to all of this. And I think we've seen this throughout the off season as teams pretty clearly are operating

knowing that the cap is going to go up sooner or with a good idea that the cap is going to go up sooner than later. Elliot Friedman reported it could be up to $92 million within three years. If that's the case, by percent of cap, this comes in closer to like 3.4, 3.5 million on today's cap. I don't think he's as good at the same age because I don't think the skating is quite the same level. But look at where Jacob Slavin was when he signed that first long-term deal

with Carolina. Or Brett Pesci for that matter. Right. That's probably a better one. You know, there's some analogies there, I think. Yeah, I think that's absolutely what Buffalo is going for here. They're hoping to get that kind of long-term cost certainty on a capital. And I think Kevin Adams even talked about that, their general manager, where, you know,

we have some big paydays that are going to be coming up soon. We need to get somebody who's good on a reasonable contract. And this is their bet on that. Yeah. I'm curious what the number will be on a guy like Kandri Miller, who you've got really high on this list. Obviously, he's been a great player. Number nine, I think he could be even one tier higher in that same grouping with Dobson, especially with what we've seen from so far this year. Yeah, no, he's been off to a really good start. I, especially with given how good he looked

earlier this season, I debated putting him into that, into that, you know, around from nine to more five to six kind of thing. I think he can make reasonable arguments either way. You know, he's showing really, I think in the games I've watched, he's showing a lot of skill to go with the frame and the skating and he's jumping into plays. You know, just overall, my question with him was always been how much offense there is there. Same thing with Farivardi, to an extent who is higher. So I think you can make those arguments either way. I think Farivari's skating is a notch higher, but they're both excellent skaters.

Like I said, it's all on the margins there. But I think you have, you have Farivari, Dobson, and Kiannra, who are all three just tremendous defensemen, who are all playing massive roles on their team already, only a couple of years after being drafted. A couple of wingers that I want to talk about in this draft. Kirol Marchenko, number 12, yet to kind of really become a full-time NHL player. But obviously with your placement here, you just love the projection this much. Yeah, that's kind of probably an aggressive one, I admit. And it could look terrible if it doesn't actually become good.

Because I got, again, a good top board offenseman arrayed by under him. I have Kailan Addison. I think Randarham, too, is on the top power play from Minnesota. So, you know, I could see that blowing up in my face a little bit. But I just think Mark Chank, he's looked really good in the American League. He starts the first couple of games. I just think once he gets adjusted to North America, 6-3 guy who can skate like he can, has legit offensive skills.

He can shoot the puck. He can make plays. I just think he was going to be a really good player. But I'm saying that for several years, and eventually it has to happen. So we'll see. The other guy I want to talk about is Philip Zedina, a guy who went. sixth overall in this class, and at the time, that seemed like maybe, might have even been a steal for the Red Wings. He comes in at number 16 for you, and it's interesting to me, I didn't think that he deserved to be a healthy scratch to start this season, but he was a healthy scratch to start this season for them.

I think that was the result of some tough lineup decisions, part of that being the rise of Elmer Soderblum, but to put him in at number 16, like, what do you think the opinion around the league is of Philip Sedina at this point in his career? It is definitely trending down. Like, I've talked to people around the league who have argued they wouldn't, trade a first round pick for him right now. He was on the open market or at least a pick they think would be in the top 20, maybe like a low first, high second type of thing. I mean, he's a scorer, right? And that's his whole shtick is he's a high skill guy supposed to score goals. And if he's not scoring goals, then there isn't a whole lot of value in the games.

He's not this great two-way guy. He's not an interior offense type of guy. And the offense hasn't really been that consistent in his game. I watched the game he played when he got into the line. You know, you look okay, fine, stuff he usually does. But again, he has tremendous skill, decent size, decent skater. It has to be just much more consistent and give a better effort every night. Yeah, it's interesting because through the first half of camp, I thought he was one of the real standouts for the Red Wings.

And it did fade as the preseason went on. Maybe that's because, you know, other teams big players start turning it on. You start playing more real NHL lineup, something like that. But I really look at him and I still think, you know, the standout at this point for me is kind of the sense in the playmaking. I think he makes the right play a lot of the time. Maybe can get a little overaggressive managing, you know, not managing the puck well enough. But I look at him and I see a real, you know, fresh start candidate here. If it's not going to work out in Detroit, if I'm another team, this is still a guy that I would take a swing on.

Obviously, I agree with you. I don't think you're probably trading a first round pick for him. But this would be a guy that I would target to try to give another look, especially if I'm one of these rebuilding teams that has some room in their lineup. Yep, I agree. All right, Corey, let's close this one out with a mailbag, and we're going to lead it off with one from one of our coworkers. Low Tide says, I love reading your lookbacks on drafts.

Is there an overriding skill or factor in the progress? Speed, age of the player, puck skills. I wonder if there's a dominant factor that towers over everything, like should age be weighted double, for instance? It would be really easy if the answer was yes. Because then you're like, oh, that's the thing that predicts success. Let me just jack all those guys up on my next draft. list.

Yeah. But really, you look through these lists and there's a lot of things that look different. Quinn Hughes is a lot different than Keandre Miller. You look through 2021 and Seth Jarvis is a lot different than Brady Kachuk in terms of the kind of success they're having. It's just, it's hard to find, you can look through all of them. If you someone see something, a common theme, feel free to let me know. But I don't see a common theme throughout it.

I think it shows us all different kind of player types can have success. It's just about finding the best player overall. Right. And we talked about kind of in that 2018 class, maybe there was some overdraft of the small-skilled defenseman, underdraft of the big mobile defenseman. But there are other drafts where that's not the case for. And so it's kind of a moving, living, breathing thing. Right.

You look at, like, say, the 2020 draft where you have Lucas Raymond and Seth Jarvis so high. Obviously, they don't have a fenceman, but they're small guys and they're huge parts of their NHL teams right now. Absolutely. So I think it's kind of living breathing. Maybe the market moves. And I don't think that would be a surprise. Louis Paul H says, is there a generational talent in the 2023 draft after Connor Bedard? Who has the potential to become one and why?

Man, two generational in one year. That's pretty rare. and I think you're kind of leading the witness there. Are we 100% Chera Karadar's generational? That's true, yeah. I mean, I would, you know, we'll see where we are. We get to the end of the year. My lean would be no right now.

Probably not all the way there with him. I love the player. I think he could be a real legit NHL star, maybe even an NHL superstar, but like, is he generally, is he McDavid? And I wouldn't go that far yet. I definitely wouldn't have the next guy in that range either. I think an interesting question with how strong Adam Fentilly starts the year. Is it a record that he has eight points in four games in college?

Depends how his start goes over the course of the year. You know, two of those games were games, Lyndon would. So, you know, a little bit of context needs to be put in there. But if he keeps up this up, or even to some extent keeps it up, I think you start asking the question, well, how similar is he to Jack Eichael at the same age? I think that he's what I've seen so far, he's the best draft. I've been eligible in college. I've seen since I cycle. And I think he's a generational guy by any means, but a little Carlson himself, too, just an incredible start in Sweden right now.

And a point per game guy in the SHL with that kind of size is really intriguing. Yeah, petition to just start using Star rather than generational. Generational by definition, you may be getting one to two every 10 years. That's what it means. Right. And McDavid is that Krosby was that, like those think that count. But I don't think, from what I've seen the badards at that level. Matthews would be like on the line. for generational or not. So if you're saying generational,

you're saying better than Austin Matthews. And to me, that's the level of rarity that should be used with that. Yeah, and I'm not there with Badaard either. I don't think he's better than Matthews. Yeah.

All right. Derek Ford, if you had to pick the defense prospect with the highest floor of the next draft, who would it be? Which is a great question because, Cori,

I don't think you're in love with the defenseman in this next draft. Am I wrong? No, I'm not. Like, even the good thing, we had rated the highest coming into the draft,

Cam Allen, just been okay to start the year so far with Guelph, like he's been, he's a good player. It looks like he could be a first round pick, but I wouldn't say he's looked anything special. Start the year. I don't know how you define highest floor exactly, but not really a term I use too often. But I look at maybe the big mobile defenseman, and typically the guys think, okay, they're going to play.

So I'm thinking of Maxim Sturback in Sioux, and I'm thinking of Demetri Seimachev and locomotive as the two guys that I think, you know, are big, mobile, have some off. I think those are guys you think are going to play and help an NHL team in some capacity, how much offense they have to be determined. All right, let's get into one that's kind of in the more NHL realm. Jason S wants to know, the Oilers look like they could really use another top four defenseman. Is Jacob Chikrin really the answer as someone who seemed to be more of an offensive type? What do you think would be a deal that Oilers would pull the trigger on?

And if they want to add a forward and Cain isn't available, what would be, what about Taves to help around the third line and replacing Duncan Keith's veteran voice? jamming a lot in there here, but I want to focus it down on two things. Well, go ahead. Is chicken really just an offensive type? I don't think so, but I think maybe that's part of his question. Is Jacob Chikrin a guy that you would target and what would make sense for him? Let's just stick to that. He's a hell of a player I would want him, just obviously matters on the price and they have a cap situation there. They've got a balance, but I mean, these are guys who are big and highly mobile like he is, I wouldn't say, are just offensively tilted.

I'm not saying he's this all-world defender, but I think he's, you know, he has good you know when you have that kind of mobility and length i think he'll make stops he'll be fine in that regard i think what's interesting is ken holland has kind of maybe taken a little bit of heat for not being more aggressive so far with this oiler's uh you know pool trying to to be aggressive with mac david and i i think they hoped broberg would be ready by now i think that was the hope going into campus he would look ready and he didn't and that's that that put a little bit of a damp into the situation. And I know, again, their defense has been a little tough to start.

Bouchard has been okay to start. So those are kind of things that are balancing. I, you know, the long year, I think Broberg should be on that team at some point this season. And I think he should be helping them win games at some point this season. But that's not there yet. Would that preclude you from taking a run, though, at Jacob Chikrin? No, it wouldn't.

I think, you know, you got to take, just kind of like Colorado did last year. You got to do flags fly forever. If you've got a real team, you've got to do what it takes. to win. And obviously, you know, it's only a few weeks into the season. We'll see where they are by mid-year, if they are in that position, to really add and make a run for the cup. But with the roster they have, I can't imagine they won't be, like, it would be quite an

achievement if they don't. Let's say the price would be something like a first-round pick, Xavier Borgo or Reed Schaefer, Yassie Pooley, R.V, maybe one other asset. Is that in the ballpark? Does that get you chikrid? I think it should. And you'd make that deal, right? That's a fair deal?

Yes, I would. And I love all those. I think Schaefer is a really good player. I'll have to a hot start. Borgos, a really good player. But you've got to trade those guys to win championships. That's just the way to go sometimes. All right.

On to the next one. Tyler S. We already kind of touched on this. Is it best to send Shane Wright back to the CHL? I think he needs to play a lot and be in a situation where he can dominate. What we didn't really cover in that discussion about Wright and Slefkovs, he is, Shane Wright in the C. H.L. And what do you think he can kind of get out of that?

I think you're really hoping that he goes to the world of juniors is one of the top players there. He really hasn't really. He was just okay when he was there with the 20s a year ago. So you kind of hope for more there. I think you go, you know, he didn't dominate the OHL last year. I think we all presume if he goes back, he will dominate. This is a guy who would be now in, you know, it would be technically his third junior year, but it's his fourth year in major junior, quote unquote, because he missed the full year. So he's been a major junior player for a long time in this scenario.

It's a tough balance. It's why I would be, I'm not willing to pull the trigger on those two just yet. Give it a few more weeks, see how it goes. But eventually if it's clear, it's not going well. You've got to do it best with the player. And even if he'll score a goal game, you got to set them back.

You'd rather have him scoring a goal a game and playing 20 minutes that often, 20 plus minutes that often, than being on the bubble of that like 10 minutes a night or a healthy scratch situation, I think. Yeah, when Arizona did that with Barrett Hayden, I didn't really like that. Yeah. Junior G says this is perfectly fitting. Can you talk a little bit about the jump to the NHL and why fans should show patience for rookies making the leap? Junior G is getting tired of fans clamoring for the new rookie to get big ice time and being exasperated when he struggles. looking for us to tell people that the NHL is hard, and it is.

Yeah, the things that will be the biggest transition for a lot of these players is usually the, one, the speed of the game, and two, the physical strength it takes to excel to the National Hockey League. A lot of these guys, not even when they arrive, even like a year or two before, they have NHL skill already, they have NHL hockey sense already, but the biggest adjustments are. are usually the pace and the physicality. And sometimes you're just not ready for it. Either you're not a good enough skater and you need to bulk up, or you are already physically advanced,

but your skating is just not ready yet. Or how physically advanced you are for junior hockey puts you all of a sudden not physically advanced in the NHL. You go from being the guy who is mature for his age physically super strong to being just a guy out there. And then those defensemen are used to handling guys like you, problem. And so I think it really is leveling up. You kind of have to create a new toolbox of what you're going to go to. The moves that worked for you in juniors are, you know, not to say

that you're not going to have moves that work for you in the NHL at some point, but you have to figure out what those are going to be. Right. And again, I think for the most part, it is learning how to make those skilled plays at NHL pace. Yeah. And you have to be able to get the puck to do that. And I think those young guys, particularly the smaller young guy, they should struggle to actually get the puck in the NHL because they can just get pushed out the puck too easily. They try to get a zone entry

and the 6-3 defenseman who can skate just closes on them in a second and they lose control. It's in the corner. They're on the retrieval and coming back the other way. It's just those adjustments that take a lot of time. It's usually why the guys who make the transition right away are guys who look like

Jake Sanderson, who are just these big powerful skaters who just look like NHL players right away. And if they don't look like that, they're just so exceptionally skilled and smart, like, say, Lucas Raymond was. That doesn't really matter. Well, I just got a up-close look at Simon Ed Vincent trying to push to make the Red Wings roster. And he's a guy who is this big, fantastic athlete. It stood out right away.

He can do a lot in transition. But he would also have plays where he would leave a drop pass for a guy at the blue line. And you don't have, you know, the amount of time that it's going to take for an NHL player to come in and steal that puck is just much less than it would be in what he was accustomed to. there's just less on the forecheck, the pressure that you're dealing with is heavier. He's going to be a great player. I have no doubt what I saw from him in camp reinforced to me, in fact, how good I think he's going to be, but he just wasn't ready to be it today. Yep, no, I agree.

John L, my take on your analysis and other opinions, two of the 23 draft, it seemed to be a good draft made strong by the big three out forwards, light on defense, but not necessarily much deeper than most years. First off, is that take accurate? And second, if it is, has anything changed? changed in the early going. Yes, it is. No, it hasn't.

Well, I think you can say that the big three is maybe become a big four, big five, right? That was the one I was going to say. I think it's a big four now. I think Leo Carlson's season in the SHL has inserted him into that debate where I think you've got, I'm not saying he's in that group yet. I'm not saying he's better than infantility yet. I don't actually agree with that. Yeah, I'm not saying he's better than Montefay-Mitchcock as a pure player,

but given Mitchcock's situation with him. his contract. Could I envision a situation where a team takes Carlson over Mitchcoff? I can absolutely envision that right now. I mean, Mitchcoff situation is a whole other issue. We're going to impact. Unpack it several times, probably this season. He's not even playing right now.

I think he's a scratch with the KHL team. But Carlson is, if he keeps this up, that changes how the top of the draft look. You add potentially another high-end guy to that mix. I don't think he's there yet because of his skating. But if he keeps scoring, like, this and has a really good world juniors, it could definitely change it.

So for context, Leo Carlson has 10 points in his first 11 games in the S.HL. Last year, Marco Casper, who went 8th overall, had 11 in his 46 for the year. So the production there is off to a crazy start for Leo Carlson. Yeah, you compare it to any guys, Holtz, Raymond, William Echlin, it's not even close. Yeah. I would say, again, the one I think from the draft is the draft looks strong, looks really strong among forwards and centers. but no defenseman right now is a thing. Philip R. says, what would you like to see from Lucas Reichael and the

H.L to say he's now ready to go up full-time, given Chicago would call him up to their team given kind of the circumstances there. And this goes right back to what we were talking about a minute ago in terms of the challenges of the NHL for young players. Right. Now, if he's putting up three-point nights in the American League, it's going to force their hand a little bit. I think he's looked good versus men whenever I've watched him in the American League

at the World Championships. again, the NHL is different, bigger, faster level than those levels, obviously. I just think he needs to keep playing how he's been playing over the last year, year and a half, and I think he'll get there and may not be in the two-distant future. Avcoe Cup wants to talk about Chas Lucius. He says he's a pretty impressive debut weekend in the AHL at center. Is there a realistic chance he becomes an NHL center or does he still project more as a wing? That's a tough one.

I mean, it depends on what happens with Dubois, right? They might have to find a center somewhere. I really like Chaz. Given his skating, though, that's the kind of the one question there is. As a below-average NHL skater, can he play the middle if you're not like this exceptional playmaker or this exceptionally, like, you know, highly competitive two-way guy, like say a Cole Sillinger is. It's why I think he's probably a wing, but he played a lot of center in his life. so I don't mind the experiment, see how it works in the American League,

and I'm not ruling him out being in NHL Center, because I think his puck game is really, really good. Well, part of it also comes, like, is he going to be at his best as a center versus a wing, or is it can he do it? Because I think he can do it. But if you're trying to get the, if you're trying to absolutely maximize Chas Lucius, I think it probably happens on the wing. I tend to agree.

All right, and then we'll close today with one from Bennett P. Is fixing overtime, three-on-three overtime, I assume he means, as simple as switching ice side. to allow teams to play closer to their bench. I feel like it would fix it almost immediately. I'd never really thought of this this way, but I do think there's some merit to this. So my idea to fix overtime

is a little bit more different than Bennett's is, you know, I... Listen, 303 overtime is like gimmicks, as is the show. We just think it's more closer to what we think hockey is than the other gimmick. Yeah. So we wanted this to kind of create hockey plays,

right? We wanted to create breakaways. We wanted to create two-on-ones. We wanted to create, you know, rushes. and saves and back and forth play. What I think has happened with the three-on-three overtime is, not surprisingly, teams have figured out how to game it

to figure out how to maximize the probability they're going to win. And the thing that I hate the most is the circlebacks. That's the thing that I think screws up that flow of the two-on-ones back and forth, etc. Where if you're tired or you can make the zone entry and you run out of space, you just kind of circle back and you pass it back to your goalie and you reset. So what I would like to see is almost like a back court rule that they have in basketball.

Now, once you bring the puck into the offensive zone, if you try to either skate it out or pass it out of the zone, blow the whistle to give it back to the other team. Now, that doesn't sound like hockey to a lot of people. It sounds like a gimmick, but it's already a gimmick. So we're just changing the rules of the gimmick a little bit. I think if you do it that way, you force people to try and make hockey plays in the offensive zone, as opposed to trying to reset, find the perfect play,

and hopefully it creates turnovers and more offense. I see the logic in that. I think I just double the length of time, though. I just think, you know, 10 minute instead of five, eventually it's going to break down, especially teams keep throwing the same players over the ice. Sure. I do get the argument, though, of the benches, I think,

because you're not going to have the long change. I think there is logic in Bennett's idea. I don't mind. I'm not one of the people who has turned on three on three and feel like it's been turned into boring. I still think the tension is really high, even when teams are cycling back. I think it really does still keep you on the edge of your seat.

Yeah, I agree. I don't hate it, but I just think there's things that you can do to make it better and put more of the stuff you want to see in it into the actual action on the ice. Yeah, that's fair. And I think all these ideas have merit. All right, that's going to do it for us.

Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show's prospect series. You can subscribe to the Athletic Audio Plus. on Apple Podcasts to get all the bonus content from our entire network. It's going to start you with a 30-day free trial, and then it's just 99 cents a month after that. Right now, you can subscribe to The Athletic for $1 a month for six months when you visit Theathletic.com slash hockey show.

We'll talk to you soon.