The Athletic Hockey Show - Are you buying or selling on these NHL contenders?

Episode Date: September 12, 2024

Hailey and Sean conclude their four part podcast series on buying or selling their imaginary stock with the legitimate Stanley Cup contenders for the 2024-25 NHL season. Salvian and Gentille discuss the potential of the top eight points teams, including the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, the Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars.Hosts: Hailey Salvian and Sean GentilleExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Jeff Domet Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. What's up, everyone? It's Haley Salvean and Sean Jintilly here with you for another off-season edition of the athletic hockey show. Can we still call it the off-season? Sean, is it the off-season? I guess rookie camps are starting. Please continue calling at the off-season for seven more days or whatever. Is it still the off-season if rookies are reporting? Let's just see what happens when the summer.

ends. As the calendar turns to September, so do our eyes to the NHL season. And we're back. I hadn't thought about rookie camps until you brought them up. Yeah. Even though they started yesterday, I guess. It seemed like there was some stuff going on. Yeah. The most freeing part about going from local to nationals not having to like do a big preview set piece about development camp. I've said that plenty of times. There's a couple things where I'm like, ain't my job anymore. I'm not driving out to Granbury to talk to,

you know, whoever the penguins are rolling out there for rookie camps. Very grateful. Yeah. I think it's fun that like fans enjoy it. It's just not my job. Some do. To write about any longer.

Sure. Some do. Yeah, yeah. So Sean and I are back this week. I think this is the final time before our friend Max Boltman finally graces us with his presence again. Because technically we're still in off-season mode for the hockey show at least. And then we'll be back with me, Haley, Sean, and Max for the rest of the season. Max has been on vacation the entire time, did you know?

He hasn't done one ounce of work. He did 32 podcasts with court. No, no, no, no, no. AI. That was AI Boltman. Oh, don't do that. My man's been on a beach at an undisclosed location for the last two calendar months. You won't even tell me where.

Right. Is he really your friend? I don't know. Got invited to his wedding. You tell me. So Sean and I are back with the final segment of our buying and selling series that we've been doing, looking at teams across the league. deciding if we're going to buy or sell our imaginary stock in that team based on what we've seen this off season.

We've been looking at it basically as a vibe check on the central question, do we like the direction of this team? So if you have been listening, you know we've done the playoff hopefuls tier, teams in the middle, the teams in transition, aka the rebuilders. And this week for the final segment, we're going to be looking at the contenders, which is objectively, I did not create. create this list based on vibes, even though it's a vibe check of the actual teams. It was just, here are the top eight teams from last year's playoffs, okay? It's objectively the top eight from last season. That would be the Stanley Cup champion, Florida Panthers, Edminton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, Colorado Avalanche, New York Rangers, Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, and Dallas Stars.

Now, I guess here's the trick with this tier of teams. I don't know how many of them objectively improved, given the cycle we see every offseason of players on good teams going to make more money somewhere else in the open market. It's still worth getting into which of these teams we have hope for, but I do think we need to adjust the central question for this final segment, right? So instead of saying, do we like the direction of the team? I mean, no, you're not going to love the direction of a team that lost their second pair or two top six wingers.

But I think we can look at it of, do we buy or sell on this team being a contender again, or sticking in this tier? Are they going to be top eight? Do they make the second round of the playoffs? Does that feel fair, Sean? For sure. And a lot of these teams, too,

the off season was just less important for them. Because by definition, if you're one of the eight best teams in the league However, we want to quantify this, top eight points teams from last season, in nearly all instances, you're going to have your core guys in place. You're going to have your franchise players, the bulwark from your team. Those dudes are there, and in most cases, they're not going anywhere. So it turns into making sure that the mix around them is right. And that by definition is easier to deal with and also lower stakes than if you're, you know,

team that's trying to make make the jump up if you're the ottawa senators or the Detroit red wings or whatever some team that's trying to make that leap into the in the upper echelon you know out of the motiony middle you're gonna have less work to do so I think it's not that's not a coincidence that a lot of these teams didn't have the most active off seasons you know maybe it was it was money in money out and they're adding complementary pieces and whatever because like i said they're they're good for reason and it's because they got the big boys in place. Yeah.

A lot of these teams have work around the edges, so they lose big players. Or when you looked, you know, Dom always does this thing every off season or after the start of free agency and says, like, who improved the most? And a lot of these teams are in the bottom,

actually every single one of these teams are in the bottom half the league in terms of net rating added. But, you know, it doesn't really matter if the Edmonton Oilers lost negative 10 on their net rating when they have Connor McDavid and Leon Dre. siddle because they didn't lose those guys very significantly the oilers did not lose the undrycidal.

So let's start with the oilers, I think, now that we've got the framework of this exercise for this time now. Yeah, the ground rules are set. And I think the oilers are a good place to start because they have been in the news most recently with some of the bigger headlines, at least when we're looking at these final eight teams. Because Leon Drysiddle, he signs for eight years and he's going to be the high. paid player in the NHL when that contract kicks in next summer. That's a $14 million AAV. The team also got hit with the very rare double offer sheet by Blues GM. Doug Armstrong, Oilers did not match. This isn't news anymore, but just going over their offseason. And they lose defender Philip Robberg and forward Dylan Holloway. Of course, they get, you know,

the draft pick compensation for losing those players. But other key additions for the Oilers, Victor Arvinson and Jeff Skinner, K-departures, Ryan McLeod, Warren Fogel, and the aforementioned Broberg. In Holloway, I think what makes the Oilers really interesting in this exercise is I think we, if we would have done this tier player

three weeks ago before the offer sheets, I would have been like, yeah, like, this is as good as you're going to get to seeing a cup finalist run it back. And maybe that's still true. So I think, think the question now, though, becomes, Sean is like, how much does the offer sheet loss impact

your view on the Oilers off season? I think we need to be careful in terms of overreacting in either direction, right? You need to be honest about what Dylan Holloway and Philip Roberg have been over the last couple years, you know, Dylan Holloway for, we get it, first round, first round pick, all that. He had seven points in 25 regular season games. And Philip Broberg, you know, even though he has... has the physical traits of a number one defenseman was it was and is still still far from that if you wanted and if you wanted proof you could look at the way he played in in the postseason right so

in terms of what those guys brought to the lineup in 23 24 not losing all that much the reason to be nervous about it though is that edmonton doesn't have guys from that age cohort in their early 20s who are particularly capable of stepping in and contributing right away, right? You would have loved to have had a dude like Dylan Hollowies, 22, but you can say like, yeah, maybe this guy is a third line piece moving forward. Broberg, you say like, he is a left side defenseman that we need in a very big way, and he's got these physical traits. Maybe he turns into a legit second pair guy moving forward.

They weren't that last year, but they had the potential to be that moving forward, and I think that's where the biggest loss for them comes. And this is my fault, I think, as a host, because I didn't mention that the Oilers did also make that trade for Vasily Podkoulson. So they do kind of add back in a 23-year-old forward prospect, played 19 games with the Canucks last season, 39 the year before.

He's played 137 NHL games in his career. so maybe they add a little bit more value there or they recoup a little bit of that young player aspect that they lost in Holloway and Broberg but I think I'm with you similarly they traded for Matt Savoy right so they are adding you know potential young pieces to the mix

but also there are question marks with both of these guys and I and you can't just assume that Matt Savoy is going to be you know, a foundational piece in six months or two years. Yeah, but they don't need them to be. They don't need them to be. They need cheap. It has to be part of the calculus with the Edmonton Oilers, right?

Like at the end of the day, we're talking about young players coming in and stepping in and being able to be effective in like a bottom six or middle six role. Like they've got the big stuff figured out right now. I know a lot of people are going to look at the Oilers and say, well, their average age is, 30. They're really old, but like, Connor McDavid's not slowing down. Leon Dreisdahl is still arguably one of the best playoff performers based on what we've seen from him the last couple seasons, right? So I think I look at that loss.

And I think based on what the Edmonton Oilers need right now, sure, that is going to be a hit to their future in five years, but I don't think that matters. The Oilers are trying to win a Stanley Cup right now. Totally. And if they were going to match and add more cap, then they wouldn't have been able to pay Victor Arvidsen. You know, mind you, he's not like the big hot ticket guy, but they're also about to pay Leon Drysidal $14 million next season. And God knows how much money Connor McDavid when his contract's up. So I think every decision that the Oilers make needs to be about how can we keep our big guns happy and paid.

And maybe taking the draft picks for Holloway and Broberg sets them up better than we're giving them credit or better than I'm giving them credit for in the next few years. Because what we've seen, we saw with Pittsburgh in particular, is when you have the two big money, top flight talents at the top of your lineup that are paid more than essentially anybody in the league, which was true for Pittsburgh and Sydney Crosby and Guinea-Malkin for years. It is vital to have dudes at the bottom of your lineup or at the middle of your lineup who were 20 years old and making $900 grand a year. It's crucial. And Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg aged out of that, right? They're not on rookie deals anymore. They're not as cheap as maybe you would like them to be. So you're saying, you know, maybe in three years, whenever they're completely, you know, in this next phase of their life cycle with Connor McDavid's,

signed to another mega deal and Leon Drysidal on the on the one he just signed, it's going to be even more important that they have cheap players. So maybe what's crucial is that they hit on these picks that they got for Holloway and Broberg, not overpay for Holloway and Broberg moving forward. I just look at that, I look at that roster and I wish there were more cheap players. And I wish there were some guys with a little bit more, with a little bit more potential on the bottom six and on the bottom two pairs.

I don't, and I don't, and I don't see that right now. That being said, they are slam dunk by for me as a top A team for the, for the upcoming season. Like no, no doubt or whatever. We're arguing about about marginal stuff. Yeah. And I mean, I think we can see that they're going in a little bit of a different way than the penguins would have,

because they don't have like a young 20-year-old making $900,000. They've got like Corey Perry making $1.5, you know, they're not. and vets who they can pay a million instead. And we'll see if that ends up working. I do think, like you said, this is arguing around the margins. I think regardless of the offer sheet impact, I think this is as close as we might see to a cup finalist being able to run it back in this way, right? They lose four depth pieces, but they keep Adam Henrique and they add Victor Arvinson and Jeff Skinner to have like a maybe the best top nine that they've had in this current window of contention.

And I know Jeff Skinner at this point in his career and even maybe Victor Arvidsen aren't like they've got the name brand. But in terms of the actual value added, it might not be this like the value that Jeff Skinner adds might not be the same as the name when you hear Jeff Skinner based on the contract he made and the headlines, etc. But like it's a better mix than they have had. Yeah. And that's why. Crucially too, Jeff Skinner isn't signed to that contract anymore, you know? for all intents and purposes. They are not paying him $9 million a year,

which is what he was making in Buffalo. It's significantly less than that. So if you adjust those expectations, and you say, like, sure, Jeff Skinner, by the letter of the law is overpaid and he's not the guy he was even two years ago. All true.

All true. He's making $3 million a year. Like, Bravo. And that's the benefit of having Connor McDavid and Leon Dreisidal on your team. Again, to throw it back to Pittsburgh because I always do.

But we saw that year after year where you had maybe not players of Jeff Skinner's level of accomplishment, but similar dudes who would be like, yeah, I'll go there. I'll go there and play for a year and see what happens. That's what, and that's how it works when you got the big guys at the top. I think I remember covering like one of those marginal players who signed in Toronto. It was like, yeah, guys want to go to Toronto to like make. their money for next year. If I can be good on the Leafs,

I'll get on TV a lot, and people will talk about me all the time because it's the Leafs, and I'll go and make money elsewhere, but the Oilers are maybe the Leafs, people think they are at this point, right? You imagine, like, if you're Jeff Skinner, you're like, I think I might be able to go play

on that Power Play. I think the Leafs and the Oilers were his two options, and he picked the Oilers. I would do. Uh-huh. So I think it's pretty clear we're both buying on the Oilers being a contender next season. So that's a call. And it's not even like, I mean, it does have to do with their offseason because they didn't really lose a bunch of important players.

They're running it back. They've got the best two of the best players in the world. Mm-hmm. Yeah. They'll be fine. although looks like Darnel Nurse and Evander Cain might miss some time at the start of the season, but... It's okay. I think they're...

This is a team we watched Plunt on October and November, basically, and still finish as far up as they did. I think they'll be okay. Yeah, they're what, one goal away? One goal from winning this team? So it's been said. Did you know? Is that true? We're buying on the Edmonton Oilers.

We just talked for 10 minutes for no reason. We could have just said, yeah, we're buying on the Oilers. Moving on. But let's go to the Dallas Stars next. This is a team that we've both picked to win the Stanley Cup and been wrong. I've been hurt by my Dallas Stars in the past. How much does their off-season change things for us? The biggest departure, I think, is Joe Pavalski retiring,

Chris Tanna of Ryan Suter Gianni Hawk and Pong, Scott Wedgwood are also gone. Key additions for Dallas and I say key, that's just the word. Colin Blackwell, that's just the word I've chosen for the lineup here.

Colin Blackwell, Matt Dumba, Brendan Smith, Ilya Lubushkin, and Casey to Smith. So a lot of depth defenders here. The net rating from Dom's model on the Dallas stars is negative 27, which is the third worst offseason on paper, only ahead of

Vegas and Winnipeg. However, do you think that Dallas will be that much worse on the ice than they technically are on paper? No, for the simple reason that I don't expect Jake Ottinger to be as mediocre this year as he was last season. I think we could say we saw him. him get back in the postseason. Sure. But over the course of 82 games, he wasn't particularly good, right? So if you think, I mean,

I believe in Jake Ottinger as much as anybody does. I picked him knowing the Vesna last year, right? So I'm maybe projecting a bit because I got burnt by that one, but I do think that he's not going to settle in as a league average goaltender. I think there's a lot more to him than that. So if they can get, some of that value in the form of a bounce back season from him. I think it mitigates a lot of what happened to them in the offseason, but it's a big butt. You're still talking about adding

Ilya Lubbushkin and Matt Dumba and Brendan's, like that combo at the bottom of that defensive lineup is going to be a problem. It's not good. Yeah. I don't like three of their six defenders. But the only good thing is that like I love, I love two of them and like the third, you know? Thomas Harley and Mero Haskinen could be one of the best defensive pairs in the league next season. I think so. And Esselendell is good, but then I don't like anyone else after that. Yeah, and it's an interesting question with them because if you, you know, if you, of course they would love to have Thomas Harley and Meryl Hiscan on the same pair, right, for however long. But in a perfect world, you can maybe have A.

to Lendell with Mero Haskin and then drop down Harley and have him as part of a part of a stronger second pair, but they, they, with who, with who? Their second right shot defenseman is Ilya Ljia Lubbushkin. Right. So do you want

Tom Carole? And their third is Matt, is Matt Dumba. So no, I'm saying I don't. I'm saying, you might as well just say like, here's our top pair. They're going to play 25 minutes a night. We'll see if we can go out and maybe, I don't know, maybe there's a right shot guy to add

as we get into the course of the season. But that's grim. That's grim stuff. Their bottom, they're projected bottom pair right now is Brendan Smith and Matt Dumbo. It's 2024. Like,

that's not good. But at the same time, there's so much to love at the top of the lineup. Yeah. That, you know, you can, you can kind of, you can kind of get away with it.

Mm-hmm. I think, the only key piece that they lost technically is Joe Pavelski retiring. And I think we've seen enough from Wyatt Johnston in the regular season and playoffs to be like, that's a guy, that's a top line guy. And not that you want him to be the Joe Pavelsky replacement, because you don't replace the old guy without a cup energy that Joe Pavelsky brought. But, like, you feel good about the internal growth.

that the Dallas stars have, right? And Thomas Harley and Wyatt Johnston, and you still have Rope Ahens and you still have Jason Roberts. And like, they didn't lose core pieces. So I think it's easy in an exercise like this to get bogged down and the like, oh my God, their key additions are Dumblin, Blackwell and Ilya Lubushkin. Like, that's not good. But like they didn't need to replace that many really important pieces. And I think we can assume that some of the calculus was like, let's cast a wide net on a bunch of depty and hope to God that at least two of them are okay and that Wyatt Johnson continues to be good and he can replace some of the offensive value that Joe Pavelsky had at the top of the lineup.

And let's just hope that like the guys we already have continue to take steps because Jason Roberts is still not like that old. And Rope Hints like that they've got pieces in Dallas and let's hope that Jake Ottinger plays the way that he did against Colorado and the post-use. reason, right? Because, like, we had moments in the playoffs of like, oh, yeah, Jake Ottinger's back. So the recipe and the pieces are there. And I feel bad because I feel like the only time we talked about the stars last year was to talk about Ottinger and dump on their defense. But like, we're kind of in the same spot again. But like at the same time, I'm still buying on that, like, we're kind of slagging them, but I think I'm still buying on the Dallas Stars. me too I will say that it's easier to see

worst case scenario coming to pass with them than a lot of these other top teams because what it's that the defense is as especially the

the bottom chunk of it is as bad as we thought that Ottinger has a season close to what we saw last season and that guys like Sagan and Ben and Dushain

get old overnight and don't and don't even produce like they did the last season last like the last couple years, Sagan and Ben, we can argue about them along the margins, but we won't do that here.

A lot of old guys in the mix in that top nine, good as it is. And then you have guys who we like to varying degrees, Logan Stancovin, Maverick Bork. Like these are guys who are well regarded, but they're still pretty young and pretty unproven. So if those guys don't make the jump, some of those other guys get old. And then the problems are the same as the ones that we've outlined here. like it could get it could get dodgy for them you know pretty quickly i i don't i just don't i just don't think that's going to happen so are you buying or selling on the dollar cars to be clear i'm

buying i'm buying but i'm a little nervous okay i'm just straight i'm just buying on the dallas stars nothing wrong with them even though i'm i'm worried about the defense but we've been talking about being worried about the defense for years and they have still been a contender so Well, last year they were a contender. Let's take a quick break, because we've been going here for about 20 minutes. When we come back, we're going to go to the Eastern Conference a little bit more. Look at the Stanley Cup champions in Florida, the Carolina Hurricanes in New York Rangers. That's next on the Athletic Coffee Show.

I fear as we're going through this exercise, we are slagging these teams and then being like, however, I think that they're going to be one of the top eight teams in the NHL next year. that we can't just that's no fun it's no fun to say they're like yep del star is pretty good i know if that's how we end up a five-minute podcast this is why i didn't want to do this tier of teams but we did have people in the comments saying no finish the series i'm enjoying it so if you don't like this it's your fault you asked for this i didn't want to do this and also for as close as we are to camp there is still not that much happening so it's got to do what you got to do we could have done a 45 minute podcast talking about the PWHL names and logos.

That's true. They would have just been like, well. Ottawa. And then we just go off for 15 minutes and end up getting yelled at. Oof. Okay, Florida Panthers, the team's core remains intact, right? The most important pieces are still there. They should still be among the top in the league next season.

Let's make that very clear. They've still got Matthew Kachuk, they've got Barkov, Reinhardt for Heike, Sam Bennett, Gustav Foresling, Eckblad. The Depp did take a hit this summer, though. Mostly on defense. Brandon Montor and Oliver Ekman-Larsen

are pretty decent hits, especially when we consider Brandon Montor was the big offensive guy. On that blue line, Oliver Ekman-Larsson had offensive value as well. Now the bottom four, they've got guys like Nico Mikola, Dmitri Kulikov.

I mean, yeah, those guys are Yeah, those guys are projected to be their second pair. That's not much in one. Other key departures, Vladimir Tarasanko, Kevin Stenland, Nick Cousins, Ryan Lomburg, and Anthony Stolars. Key additions this season, Esper Bochrist, A.J. Greer, Thomas Nosek, Nate Schmidt, and Adam Boquist. But I think really the big conversation about the Panthers

in a similar way to the Stars is going to be about that decor, right? And I think the big question that I have about this team is like, what are those losses going to mean for somebody like Gustav Forsling, who we started to see finally get his flowers as like a really impactful defender, right? But like my thought is, is he going to start being overextended or trying to do too much specifically offensively because they've lost guys like Brandon Montour and Ekman Larson? Or is Gustav Forsling going to completely carry the load? and just win the Norris because he carried the team defensively next season.

Like there's two ways that could go. Of course, he could just be the guy he was last year and he's steady. But I think that ends up just becoming that latter option, which I said is like, yeah, he's just going to win the Norris. Yeah, it's definitely similar to what we said about Dallas, where you have so much on the plate of that top pair.

It's a fair question as whether they can do it, because we love, we love Gustav Forsling. We just got done working on player teams. tears. And like most of the people I talk to in one way or another were like, we love Gustav Forsling with with neon lights blaring behind them as they said it, right? Like it's true. There's a difference though between what he did last season and what he is going to be asked to do this time around. And it's going to be a lot. And there's also a fair question as whether his partner, Aaron Echblad, has truly entered the downslope of things because there are

City Miles on that dude. A lot of injuries, a lot of minutes. He missed a huge chunk of at the start of last season with a serious shoulder injury. And then, you know, was okay when he came back? So you're expecting that guy in Forsling to do a whole hell of a lot of work as that top pair, especially if it's Kulikov and Meekla behind them for the duration of a regular season, and man, they're going to be extended pretty far. And that makes me nervous to some degree.

But it's also just the cost of doing business. That's the way it goes. That's what happens when you're a cup-winning elite team. Because you're going to lose guys like Brandon Montser. And you're going to lose guys like Oliver Eckman-Larsin. That's just how it works. Yeah. So I trust the framework around them.

I also trust Bill Zito's ability to go out. and get somebody if it comes at that point. Sure. But, you know, the defensive depth chart at the start at the start of the season is, uh, it's a little fuzzy. Mm-hmm. I think their top six is going to be about the same. It's going to be good enough, right?

That top pair, like Gustav Forsling is a number one D. But yeah, outside of that, they've got a lot of question marks on defense, but I also know that the Panthers went into the season. in last year with a worse defensive situation because of injuries. And everyone just assumed, like, this team is going to suck. And Paul Maurice made them a better defensive team despite a bunch of hits to their blue lines. So I do think we have to consider the coach in the system and all this.

Think about what they look like at the start of last season. Eckblad's out. Montour is out. I know. Right. But Ekman Larson and we all were asking the same questions. Like how are they supposed to do this? And now we're saying, oh, God, how can they survive without Ekman Larson?

When a year ago it was like, how do we expect all right, Larson to eat big minutes on a good team? So absolutely. I think this becomes the Panthers under Palmary so almost becomes like, I don't want to say that they're the canes because Rod Brindamore has been like building that out for such a long time too, right? But it's like almost, you know, goalies or defenders or middle six guys thrive on this team. and it's like, is that going to be the Panthers now? As you can put a guy that we assume isn't very good on defense, on the Panthers on defense, and he's going to be fine.

Yeah, they're not Rod Brindamore. We're going to find out. You're not Rod Brindamore in the Carolina Hurricanes because they actually won a cup. It's true. It's unfair. It's unfair to the Florida Panthers to compare them to the Carolina Hurricanes at this point. Spicy? I don't think so.

So are we buying on the Florida Panthers? I think we are. I think that's a, good transition to the Carolina Hurricanes themselves. This is a team that did not win the Stanley Cup last year. They are not running it back this year. They lost their entire second pair in the offseason and Brett Peshy and Brady Shea and their superstar winger from the trade deadline in Jake Gensel. Also, Tavo Tara Vinen and Stefan Nason are gone. Tera Vinen is a little bit more important to the mix, I think. For the most part, this is a can't, then Stefan Nason is what I mean.

I love. You're talking to Stefanese and Superfan number one. Really? I was not, couldn't have been less surprised to him score like some big goals down the stretch for a really good team. Okay. For the most part, though, the Carolina Hurricanes have worked around the margins.

They got the Seth Jarvis extension. William Carrier is honestly a solid middle six guy. That's kind of what I mean to my point before of like you put a guy who's been like good in that position on the canes and he's probably going to elevate and, you know, be a valuable player, right? Like William Carrier on the Canes makes a lot of sense. And honestly,

for the price tag, Sean Walker and Shane Gossus Bear are not bad replacements for Pesci and Shea. Considering that the Walker and Gossus Bear cap hits this season are going to be less than Brady Shea's cap hit alone, right? That's $6.8 million for the two of them. Brady Shea signed a seven times seven. Brett Pesci, 5.5 million over six. Obviously, you would rather, I think in terms of on ice ability, you probably would rather have Brady Shea and Brett Pesci continue to be your second pair. But when we are considering the cost in the cap, Sean Walker and Shane Gosses bear for 6.8 combined is not that bad. That's pretty decent work. But it's also hard to imagine that this Kane's roster is not going to take a step back, at least offensively,

which is where we usually say the Keynes need to improve. So this is maybe the first team where I'm like, I think it's actually a discussion of if we think they're going to be a top 18 next year. I think it's a little bit of a transitional off season for them too. Like they did, they took care of some long-term issues. Love the Jarvis contract. We got some resolution to all the Martin Hs trade stuff. Like he's, he's there.

Seems like he seems like he's going to be there. So I think those are important things that needed to be addressed. That being said, you just don't, you don't get better when you, lose when you lose Jake Gensel and you know and you're still looking at a center depth chart potentially that has you know is just Perry Kocanemi going to be their second line center this year like is it going to be is it going to be 30 six six or seven year old Jordan stall like they're they're they're still missing guys down the middle and like the fact in the fact that we're having this conversation that doesn't mean they had a bad offseason they're they had a

challenging off season that I think they, I think that they approached intelligently and correctly. But for 2024, 25, I think that is a roster that's, it's taking some hits. And I think it was kind of, kind of unavoidable based on, based on the way things went for them last season. Right.

Their center depth chart right now in terms of projections would be Aho's number one C. Mm-hmm. Totally happy with that. Like that Aalho's Svetnikov-Jarvis line is great. Yes, it is. Yeah, it's Coakeney Emmy, it's Zach Drury, and Jordan Stahl. That's not a top-flight contender.

It just isn't. Like the thing that I, like, is this a, is this a Kane's team that the New York Islanders can beat in the first round of the playoffs next year? That's a great question. That's a great question. Thank you. I've been working on my hosting skills. Do I think it's possible? Of course, would I pick the hurricanes to lose the Islanders?

in a first round series at this point, I would not. Okay. It's a cop-out answer. Are you buying or selling, though? I'm selling them as a top eight team in the league. If we're going points-wise, I just, I'm not, I'm not sure where the goals are coming from this year. And again, I like the off-season. I like the economics of it.

I think Sean Walker and Shane Gossus Bear are like, we know Gossus Bearer works well there, but same goes for Sean Walker. Those are, those are Cain's defensemen, if we've ever seen them, right? I'm cheaper, which is makes them Keynes defensemen. I just don't know where the goal scoring is going to come from up front. And it's just, and I can't, I can't pick them until, until there's some kind of resolution there. I have a heart, I agree with you, but in terms of like at the very least points in the regular season last year, I know we're talking about these were, this was a top eight team in the postseason. But I have a, they were.

they were third in the NHL last year, and they didn't have Jake Gensel for all of that, right? Like, they had pretty similar mix in that forward group, and they were still third in the NHL and points. Did the Toronto Maple Leafs pass them to become a top eight team next season? I think it's possible. I just wonder who in the east is going to be, who in the east is replacing them as a top eight team.

I think it's possible that New Jersey and in Toronto both do that. Yeah. Yeah, I'm with you. unfortunately. But I don't think the canes are going to be bad. I just don't think they're going to be a final eight standing. I think this is going to be like a big Rod Brindamore year. If this team ends up proving us wrong, I think a lot of that's going to have to do with Rod. Totally. Let's go to the Rangers. Nothing crazy to report about the Rangers.

Not really. You have a conversation. They are pretty comfortably a top eight team for me. not a lot of big changes. They add Riley Smith in the offseason. Jack Roslovick, he goes to the Keynes, I think, actually.

Didn't mention that. Sorry, Jack Roscovick. I think, I think we, it's fair to say that Jack Roslavik isn't an impact edition.

Yeah, he's going to play with Jack Drury. I have a really hard time with that name on the third line. It's going to be fine. Alex Wenberg, uh, Barkley-Gudrow and Eric Gustafson or other key departures.

Eric Gustafson is probably the biggest knock in terms of the blue line. But this is just a, this is a Rangers team that was really good last year. And unless you want to start getting afraid that Artemi Paneran's a year older, which I am not at this point in time, I think you're pretty comfortably happy with the state of the New York Rangers. Maybe I'm not thinking hard enough about it, but. No, I don't have much to say. Rangers were good last year.

They're going to be good this year. Igor Shusirkin's the best goalie on earth. I think what we saw from Panarin last season, even though he is a year older, as he was as he was as good as we've ever seen him. It was like he decided to start scoring goals and start shooting the puck more. And here we are.

I think we can all expect maybe a little bit more from Kandre Miller. I think that's probably a growth point along the defense. You know, at some point, Kreider and Zabanajad and yes, Panarin are going to start to age out. That's going to happen. But I'm not there yet overall,

and I'm certainly not there to the point where I think that's going to drop them out of the top eight. And also, let's not forget about Adam Fox because I feel like we're at a point where Rangers fans are like banging their heads against a wall because they're like, why are more national people not talking about Adam Fox? I don't want to say he's gotten underrated

or like, why are we not talking? about Adam Fox. But like I do think in terms of the defense like mix, like I, Kail McCar controls and demands so much that conversation. And Quinn Hughes did last year too to the point where I think I always see Rangers fans being like, why are you not respecting Adam Fox enough? That's a question that we asked a lot of folks for the for the tears project because we're trying to figure out how do you, does he slot in relative to

McCar and I think it's Macar Fox Hughes is that crazy it's not it's not crazy because of all the things that Adam Fox does well he just can't he can't he can't he can't physically limited in a way that those guys aren't and I think that's what makes people think about McCar and Quinn a little bit differently is that is that they pop they're more aesthetic in a way that Foxx does it in a way yeah but i had i had a coach telling me that he think he's almost he's more impressed with what fox does because of how much he needs to rely on his brain like that's his super power that's his superpowers that he thinks the game at as high a level as as as micard does he just doesn't quite have yeah you know the next level and that's no knocking out on fox like he's aran ambrose

yeah yeah like and if you're not as good of a skater as kill macar like neither is 99.999% of of the NHL right like that's just that's just the way it goes but I think that's I think that's what the difference is is that fox is a little bit more quieter out there because of it because of because of because of his physical profile are they all in the same tier to you or is kale on a tier of his own um just don't spoil it don't spoil it don't spoil it. And I don't want, I don't think, I don't have Hughes number three in that. It's not like, those three to me are like, I just think. That was a big, a big question in tiers was, are they on, are they on this, are they in the same tier? Are two of them separate from one?

Yeah. And it was tough. I think those three will be flipping their order. like every season, not in terms of like, not in terms of like who's the best ever, but in terms of like who did I like the most this season. Like last year, like I liked Quinn Hughes more than Adam Fox, but like two years,

like three years ago, obviously you like Adam Fox more. I think the order in which we talk about those guys will be different, but I do think at the end of the day, Cal McCarr is going to end up being the best of the three. Anyways, I'm buying on the Rangers.

Me too. That was my big tangent. I do think those three are very interesting. What? Your tangent is that you think Keel McCar is better than Quinn Hughes and Adam Fox? Yeah, is that crazy? Isn't that so crazy? Wow.

Like the picture of the girl with the chip bag on her head and just like, oh my God, she's crazy. Calm down. We got a big brain over here that thinks that Kayla McCar is the best defenseman in the league. Isn't that wild? I'm so unique. Meow. Did we talk about all three? Yeah, we did.

Let's take a break. Our final three teams, Vancouver Canucks, Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche. We can talk about Quinn Hughes and Kelmokar some more. No, thanks. We'll be right back on the Athletic Hockey Show. All right, welcome back to the show. We've got three more teams to dive into. I think we can start with the Vancouver Canucks.

We just did have that conversation about Adam Fox and Quinn Hughes. Quinn Hughes plays for the Vancouver Canucks. Let's see who we're going to talk about next. Um, key additions for the Canucks this season, Jake Debrus, Gaddaen, Heifer Sherwood, Derek Forbert and Vincent de Harney, key departures, uh, Ilya McAyev, Ian Cole and two of their deadline acquisitions in Elias Lindholm and Akis Zora of both of which signed with the Boston Bruins who will talk about in this segment as well. Um, for me, the Canucks are a team that didn't get significantly better this off season,

but I don't think they're worse. Like I think the Canucks are about the same for me. I understand being a fan and being unhappy about losing Nikita Zedorov after the way he played in the playoffs and his quotes. Like he's an easy guy to latch onto, at least in the last few years, the way he's been playing. I also think it is very good cat management to not sign

Nikita Zadorov and Elias Linholm. for five years at $5 million, if we're talking about Zadorov and seven times seven, I think it was for Linholm, got Hughes and Pedersen that you need to focus on. Don't overdo it on the depth guys because Nikita Zadorov is at his best when he is your third or third pair defender, right?

So I'm not unhappy with anything that the Canucks did. Nope. I think my feelings are just their core is good. They have Quinn Hughes and Demko and Pedersen. and I am happy. Absolutely. And they locked up Heronik, who I don't mind that contract at all. It's long term, it's big money.

But you also know after a full season of watching it that he worked with Quinn Hughes. Like, they found it. They found the long-term partner for their Norris trophy winning defensemen. Like if that means you have to pay up a little or go a little bit longer than maybe you would have liked to otherwise. Oh, well, so it goes, right? So welcome to the core, Philipronic. My only concern with him is the possibility for a J.T. Miller regression. Like, I don't want to harp on this because I feel like we've been fighting the J.T. Miller battle for years.

And it's kind of a tired and boring one. He's a good hockey player. He's a very good hockey player in a lot of instances. I'm interested to see what happens with him whenever his teammates aren't shooting 13% with him on the ice. And they're not getting 925 goal tending with him on the ice. I don't want to fall back. I'm trying to avoid saying PDO here. Oh, did I just say T?

I meant PDO. Yeah, personal time off, yes. What happens when J.T. Miller takes PTO. It takes PTO to go back to Butler County to, you know, go hunt or whatever. Yeah. Um, continue. We'll, we'll see what happens. I think if the version that we get of J.T. Miller in 24, 25 is the same as we got last season.

It'll be all systems go for, for the Vancouver Canucks, I think. And no matter what in Haley, you said this, like the core is just great. Yeah. It's, it's tough to. it's tough to pick against, at least for this exercise, where we're saying, do we think that they're, you know,

one of our top eight teams once the playoffs roll around. Like, yes, period for me. Yeah. J.T. Miller, I was about to tell you that you're big-braining this, but then I saw that J.T. Miller shot 19% last season. Not big-braining anything.

And so did Brock Besser. If those guys, if those guys are really good and also really, really fortunate with the, bounces again this season, like all will be well. I just, I'm a little, little fuzzy on betting on both of those things that happened. But just more generally with them, like, I love the offseason they had. There was, there was a lot of, there was a lot of work to be done. There were a lot of potential landmines to avoid in terms of, like you said, a long-term, or whatever,

term in mind is a Dora of, et cetera, et cetera. They avoided all that stuff and, you know, set up well for the future. So I like the job that Patrick Olivian and Jim Rutherford did. I just want to have a little asterisk next to things. Yeah. I think that I feel better about a J.T. Miller regression season not happening because of Rick Tockett. I think that it was like very clear that Tuckett was trying to not just celebrate guys getting hat tricks if they weren't playing the right way. Like, I do think that they've drilled in certain details that the hope or the optimist view is that some of those things aren't going to happen because of the coach.

And, of course, he just won coach of the year for a reason. And I think they're better equipped to handle a J.T. Miller regression than also than they would have been in the last couple years. Like, like, I think because J.T. Miller's proven himself more as a player. So you say that it's a little bit less likely that it happens. and if it does, it's less catastrophic. And also they're just more equipped to deal with him, you know, having a little bit of a downseason.

I just think we need to be prepared for the fact that it might be coming. All right. So I'm buying on the Canucks. Me too. Okay, great. There's another team that I worry about heading into the offseason, similar to the Canes discussion. I think it's the Boston Bruins,

and I'm probably a little bit more worried about the Bruins than the Cains. maybe if I'm, you know, being Charlie Day with my big board, the Bruins dropping off more than the canes might make the canes be top eight again. I agree with that. My big brain mind map. Brad Marchand had three surgeries this offseason. If he is going to be ready for training camp, that remains to be seen. Jeremy Swayman does not have a contract. They lose Jake DeBrusk, Dan Hinen, James Van Reimsdike, Pat Maroon, Matt Grisleck, and,

Linus Allmark. They add the aforementioned Elias Linholm and Nikita Zadorov to long-term, pretty decent money contracts when we're thinking about where those guys are best suited. Mark Castellick and Jonas Corpusallo, who might end up having to play if Jeremy Swamen holds out. Number one, three, Jonas Corpusalo, who was a dump out of Ottawa. Anyways, I don't love what the Bruins did. Charlie Coil is the number one set, the number two center in Boston again after a year of being like, who's the, I think Charlie Coil deserves a lot of credit for the season that he had in 23, 24.

Like I'm saying I was more skeptical of him coming into it than a lot of people, but I think he was, I think he was really good. That's not a contenders center depth chart. It's Lindholm, it's Coil, it's some combination of Matt, Poitris, John Beecher, they like Morgan Geeky a lot. You know, there's guys in the mix there, but I don't think there are guys that you want to see from

the number one or number two team in a division. Yeah. And I think the big variable for them now, good as a player, as Marshaun still is, is that I'm not sure he's capable of carrying his own line at this point. Like, he's getting older. He's, you know, might not be ready for the same. start of the season had a bunch of stuff go wrong for him. This isn't Brad Marshawn from five years ago.

So the days of being able to say, like, maybe you could give him his own line for a while and have it and have it work out at contender quality. You can't pencil that in anymore. So when you're talking about, you know, maybe they end up moving Pavlzaka back to, back to, whatever, whatever combo they settle on is not, is not befitting a top eight team for me. I think their floor is low because I think that's a really well-coached team with a solid defensive structure. I don't think things are going to bottom out, but I just don't. I just still don't like to mix it forward for them.

I think the one thing to be optimistic about if we're picking like, ooh, this might actually end up of, this might be a great move by the Boston Bruins is Elias Lindholm finding his way as a number one center again, while playing with David Pasternak because we know that Elias Linholm has the ability to score 40 goals. We know that he is a Selky caliber player on the defensive side of the puck. We know he can eat minutes in all situations. And we saw that while he was playing with Matthew Kachuk and Johnny Goddrow and Johnny Goddrow and Sean Monaghan and Calgary. And I think there is there is reason to be optimistic about Elias. Linholm as the number one center in Boston with a guy like David Pasternak.

I went a hundred point player in David Pasternak. So that would be the reason to be excited about what the Bruins did this offseason is they could have a lights out top line. I heard from several people over the course of dealing with the player tiers project. They all phrase it the same way. Like there's no winger in the league that scares me more than David than David Posternak. I had a coach, I had a coach say he's an oh shit player with a puck on his stick. Yeah.

And he's got in a way that in a way that no winger in the NHL is, right? And now, and now he's with a, you know, he's, he's with a guy who has, who knows how to play with, with elite players like that of nothing else. And in Lindol. So yeah, there's, there's a lot of work that could be done along that top line. I'm just skeptical, skeptical about the stuff that's behind it. Yeah, and I think the fact that he's got a center in Linholm, who's got like a really deceptive shot, it comes off quick. Who if you, like, this is exactly what happened on the top line in Calgary when it was great, right?

Is if you give Matthew, if you start paying more attention to Matthew Kach, then Elias Linholm's wide open in the slot. And I think you're going to see a lot of teams rightfully try to collapse in, lock down David Pasternak, which is going to leave Elias Linholm open in the slot. And if he can find that scoring touch again, it's going to be a problem again. We've seen this before. So that's the reason to be optimistic. I think the Marchand and the Swayman is what makes me be like,

what's his team going to look like at the beginning of the season? I also felt that way two years ago in Jim Montgomery won. It's completely true. And I look like a complete fool. So I'm not, I am not buying on the Boston. in Bruins at this time, but I will eat crap on it again if I have to. I probably will.

Congrats to the Bruins. Both of us will. Let's go to the final team. It's the Aves. This will probably be the shortest of all of them. I don't care about what they did around the edge of it. Congrats to Parker Kelly and Eric Brandstrom

for leaving the Ottawa Senators and joining the Colorado Avalanche. Key departures. I I think Sean Walker is maybe the big one. Jack Johnson, Andrew Cogliano, Zach Preezee, and Yakov-Trennan. They still have Kail McCar and Nathan McKinnon

and member of Haley's terrific team, Miko. Yes, that's right. My first round pickkeeper. You're not going to do better than that. I wasn't totally sold on the ads until I found out there bringing back Pierre Edward Belmar on a PTO. That's what ticked them over. into the buy category

for me. I'm like, well, a little squishy on them. Here's one thing I want to say about... I've ever uttered on this podcast. It's embarrassing. Jeff, cut that out. One thing I want to say about the Colorado Avalanche.

Okay. I am going to defend Alexander Yorgia who was bad last season and deserved the amount of of crap he took, especially in the playoffs. The year before that, he was pretty good. And if he can be a 9-15 or 9-16 goal tender again,

I think they're lethal. And he at least has done it in the past. So don't just assume that Alexander Georgiev stinks because he stunk last year. Okay? Sounds great. Thanks, Sean. You're welcome.

I feel bad for not providing most. insight, but I just, I don't care about these other people. Yeah, I, I just, I think, I just think there's a lot, a lot of people just because of what we saw at certain points last season are unaware that, that Georgiev was 919 and 22, 23. Like, like, he, we know that he's, I wasn't talking about that. He is capable to some, to some degree. That's the only thing I want to say. I'm not going to sit here and talk, and talk about, like, act like it's, groundbreaking to say that, you know,

Nathan McKinn is good or whatever. They also signed Oliver Shillington, and I'm excited to see what he looks like in Colorado after some tough years for him, like, personally. He was on the player assistance program for

the duration, most of the season, I should say. Happy for him, hope he gets back playing. And when Shillington, was like on in Calgary there man if Oliver Shillington can

be that guy that he was on the big Daryl Sutter year when Daryl won coached the year I think that was what three years ago that is going to be a win for the a V's in terms of a guy who's on your third pair right now so that's something to be excited about when we're looking at some of the work they did around the edges

Eric Brandstrom, I think the Sends were kind of done with that experiment, but maybe a fresh start for him. And on a third pair with a similar, you know, quick, offensive defender, Swedish guy and Shillington, like there's something kind of fun there to watch on that third pair for the abs. I think obviously Drew Ann and McKinnon on the top line is like a fun storyline. A full season of Casey Middlestad is the two C is going to be interesting to track. I think that's still been a question is who is the two C,

like who's going to win that role for the Aves. So it'll be interesting to see what Casey Middlestad does in a full season there in that role for Colorado. But at the end of the day, you said you didn't want to talk about those guys. I felt bad if you're an Aves fan who waited an hour to hear us talk about the Aves just for us to be like, I don't care. This team's very good.

I think I'd be annoyed. Whatever. We're going to watch Oliver Shillington and Eric Branchton be the most entertaining third pair in the league. And everyone's going to talk about what a bunch of genius is that team is again. And we are. And we are. And I am for saying it. You heard it here first.

Is that it? Do you have any other thoughts? Buying. Buy the Colorado Avalanche. Oh, yes. I am purchasing stock in the Aves being a top eight team in the NHL next season. I think the next time you hear from us, Max will be back. That's the goal, but we'll see.

Maybe he'll ditch us again for Corey Pranman. AI Boltman. AI Boltman. But thanks everyone for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. Sean and I are going to be off next week. We will return. It says here in the script from producer Jeff that Max will be back for our season premiere. So if he bails on us, he's going to face the raft.

He has to be here. So if you've been waiting for Max, he'll be back on the 25th. So we. Thanks, everyone, for listening. We'll be back with a real season coverage coming soon.