The Athletic Hockey Show - Best U23 NHL players and prospects and listener questions in a supersized mailbag

Episode Date: September 6, 2022

First, Max and Corey break down Corey’s ranking of the best NHL players and prospects under 23 years of age, and discuss the dominance of the Hughes brothers with Jack at No. 1, Quinn at No. 4, and Luke at No. 11, Seth Jarvis, Brady Tkachuk, Lucas Raymond, and much more.Plus, the guys close things out with a supersized mailbag including questions about which NHL team is the furthest from contending for a Stanley Cup, Kaapo Kakko’s slower-than-expected development, other than goalies, which player types are the hardest to evaluate, if Matty Beniers, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Shane Wright are the Calder favorites heading into this season, Tage Thompson’s new deal with the Sabres, and many more.And, right now, you can get a 6 month subscription to The Athletic for just $1 a month when you visit http://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hey everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Corey Prondman for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show's Prospect Series. Today we are going to wrap the Under-23 sequence. This one, a more full episode. We've been doing short ones on each team's pipeline. Today we're talking about the full list, the individual players, and we got a big, beefy mailbag to make up for skipping over that for the last little while here. Really looking forward to that, Corey. So to start off, let's get right into it with this Under-23 list. and the dominance of the Hughes family at the very top of it, starting at number one with Jack Hughes, but all three brothers in the top 11.

Right. And I think obviously you knew that with the years that Jack had, where he was just, you know, when he was healthy, he was incredible for the nutrition of doubles. And Quinn follows up, you know, the great start to his NHL career by having probably his best year today, at least offensively. But it was really, I think, you look at the rise of Luke Hughes to. where just year after year he keeps getting better as a pro prospect. That second half at Michigan in his freshman season was just incredible. The offensive tear he went on. And you just look at all three of these guys. And they're all among the best skaters.

If you drop Luke in the NHL right now, all three of those guys would be among the best skaters in the National Hockey League. And they all have a lot of offense. I don't think Luke's offense is in the same level. level as Quinn and Jack, but it's kind of amazing seeing what this family is becoming. Obviously, Luke needs to do it in the NHL first, but it really is amazing to see what they've all become. And if you're a USA hockey fan, you're almost like, why couldn't Jim and Ellen crank out a couple

more of them? Well, yeah, certainly, yeah, for the Americans. What I was curious about is when I was looking at the skating for all these guys. And I think you've got Quinn in the elite tier, which is exceptionally rare, almost no elite skating grades that you give out. Jack, I think, and Luke are both in the high end. And it was kind of making me think specific to kind of which is more valuable. Because I know, you know, an elite skating 510 defensemen is skill in elite skating defensemen. But when you compare that with a, you know, a high end skating centerman or a high end 6-2 defensemen, like almost like which of those overall, I know there's a ranking here.

there's more components that go into it, but just specific to the skating. Like, who's like the best, like the best package of skating there for all those attributes and traits? It would probably be Luke. I just think, you know, like I said, when you have that, the frame that he has, unlike his other two brothers, and just how good a skater he is at that size. It's a, he's a true, you know, athletic freak in that regard. Like I said, he doesn't have the same level of hockey sense skill that those other two have. It doesn't mean it's not a stray.

It's just not what, you know, it's not the same exceptional level of the other two. where Quinn was always one of the best playmakers at his age group year after year. But definitely Luke's physical toolkit is the most that's off the charts. Were you at all tempted? He's in the same tier as the player right ahead of him, Alexei Lefronier, to just slide him to 10 to just make it a round number three in the top time. Yeah, I had someone else make that joke to me. I set out this list sometimes to some scouts just like just to get an idea of anything that, you know,

I wouldn't move based on what they tell me, but if I'm looking for anything that's like, hey, this is way off or this is way off. And it's more just feedback. I did have someone make that correct. Just like, just put three in the top ten. It'll be a good headline. But no, nope, nope. You got to stick to the list. Well, I appreciate that scout looking out for us headline-wise.

So whoever that was, just know we appreciate you. Right behind Luke on that list is a player who, I'm going to imagine drew some attention here. Seth Jarvis. He was a player who went right around the early team. Was he 12 in his draft? It was 12th or 13th. I think it was 13th. And now 12th overall under 23.

He was probably, if not the biggest risers, certainly one of the biggest risers throughout the course of last season as a rookie. Can you just take us a little bit into how you've seen your evaluation of him evolve? Well, I mentioned how Luke keeps getting better year after year. Jarvis is, I mean, his development curve is on such a steep upward trend. You look at that draft year where he scored, you know, what it was 100 points or whatever it was for Portland, and it was a big part of them being a big team. Then the next year, as an 18-year-old goes to the American League and just rips it up as an 18-year-old in that league,

a point per game, all situations, driver for a top team. And as a 19-year-old in the NHL, he doesn't start off really high in the line for Carolina. It has to kind of work his way into being a full-timer. Then he just keeps getting more and more ice time, scores 40 points as a 19-year-old. year old and then by the end of the year into the playoffs he's like running the first power play unit for carillon he's getting regular significant minutes for them and and you know being a big reason why they want a playoff series you look at this player he's not the biggest but his skating is really good his competitiveness is really good he makes a ton of plays he can score goals

i mean this is he looks like a like a future star in my opinion and i know he was there's the 13th world picked two years ago, I don't mean to, you know, put unrealistic expectations on this kit. But it's hard to watch his development over the last three years and not have high expectations for him going forward. We talk about especially like the, where guys went in their draft, where they're at today. One of the things that stood out to me reading the list was that Brady Kachuk has now ascended on this list to being the top player from that 2018 draft class. Even ahead of Svetnikov plays the same position. I think Svetnikov was right up there one or two the last time you did this list yeah no he was he fell a little bit this

year i don't think he had a really good year probably wasn't uh especially in the playoffs he kind of was as a disappointing and but he's still a great player and you can easily i think you can yeah he's still six on this list right like if someone said oh i think he's the best player or i think dalien is the best player from that draft class uh i think quinn i have him as the best player in that draft oh you know what you're right i think of quinn as being older for some reason i don't know why maybe it's just a late birthday thing that was a common response when I went from I found from when I was doing this exercise is when the people said oh I didn't know Quinn was still 22 I didn't know philip sedena was still yeah and those guys are both late birthdays right I think they both like they'll be

23 yeah yeah it'd be in the year by new years yeah yeah but it's just an interesting you know yeah I think that's a common thought process and the same thing with brady I mean Brady was is already the captive in an NHL team and he's not 23 years old yet and he's a late birthday too so yeah maybe I'm just, yeah, my wires are crossed there. But nonetheless, like, what did Brady do, I guess, to separate there? Because I think it's even, there is a tier break in between those two guys. Yeah, there is. There is a mild separation for me. And I think with Brady, with Brady, you always saw the things that can make him special when he was in the NHL. You know, you saw such an incredible competitor, huge, really physical, had skill and playmaking ability. But the offense just never

clicked at a significant rate. He would get a lot of chances. The shot. generation was really high, just never finished, and then he had the 30 goal season this past year. And he's being a leader for an NHL team, playing big minutes, you know, creating a lot of offense, being, you know, just an absolute, you know, high-end competitor and creating chaos around the net constantly. Well, you bring all those intangibles and how hard he works on the ice, and he scores 30 goals, too, and he's already the captive of an NHL team. I think those are components that make you think this guy's going to have a very long and productive

NHL career. His teammate, Tim Stutzel, also really number eight on this list. I think he's the first of his class. Yes. And I agree with that call. I think Stutzel looks like, especially when you look at the size, skating skill and smarts package that he's got there, like this, to me, has the look of a future star for Tim Stutzler. And he played some center this year.

So that's really appealing to go with that skating. He's on the flank of their first power plate unit. He's creating offense. The skating is pretty dynamic. I think there's a lot more offense to come. Again, he was a teenager in the NHL last year. Could have been in the most recent world juniors still, but he was already an important player for the Ottawa senators.

And this is a guy. I mean, I think if you read to that draft, he would be the first pick. Not him with a bullet. I think there would be other guys that be close in the mix, like Alexei Lefrenier, like Lucas Raymond, but I think this guy is kind of emerging into a star in the National Hockey League right now. And it wouldn't surprise me if he had 60 plus points this upcoming season, presuming he stays healthy. It's really interesting.

And, yeah, this was already, we knew this kind of from going through your pipeline rankings of the organizations. But there's a few teams here that have great combinations near the top. And a whole lot of them reside in the Atlantic Division. You've got Stutzel and Kachuk for the Ottawa Senators, Cider and Raymond, both in the top ten at number two. and number nine for the Red Wings. And Buffalo has that collection of Dalline, Power, and Cousins. Three in the top 20. Cousins is actually at number 13.

Maybe let's start with him there, Dylan Cousins, and how you've seen him develop into one of those top 15 players. I think that was one of the ones that I put there that probably got some of the most disagreement among either people I send the list to scouts or fans. But I'm a big believer in Dylan Cousins. I think this is a guy who is going. to have a very bright and long NHL career.

And I know he had some good stretches in the NHL last season, but he wasn't overly consistent in terms of being an important player for Buffalo. But I think there's a couple of reasons why I haven't rated as high. I think while you look at the toolkit, 6-3 center with his skating, his skill, his competitiveness, his scoring ability, I think that's an incredible toolkit package right there. Look at his prior history, whether it's in the WHL or internationally, particularly with, say, the prior world juniors, he typically performs at very high levels.

And then the most recent world championships where he was on a team with Matthew Barzell, on a team with Pierre-Luc Dubois, and he excelled and was among the best players in that tournament and on his own team. That to me is usually when you have a young player like that, I think he was 20 or 21 at the time at the world championships playing at that kind of level. It's usually a really strong indicator to me of future success. It doesn't mean I think he's going to be a star as soon as next season, but I think this is a guy who, if you told me, you know, he's going to have 50, 60 points next season, be a really good two-way player. I wouldn't blink.

I think this is going to, I think Cousins is going to be a great player for a long time. So his draft class was the end of my first year on the beat. My first year started with the 18 draft and then his was the first. And so his was the first class that I kind of followed. And I remember being a little down on him in his draft year, I think because, you know, I wasn't sold on maybe the hands, the puck skills, just the raw skill there and how much offense. Sure. I now look at him, though, and I don't see why he can't become Dylan Larkin-ish.

Yeah. As that kind of, you know, maybe even 70-point player, score 30 goals, and be a really valuable to a guy. He's even got a little more size to him than Larkin. Yeah, maybe not as explosive a skater. He's a good skater. I don't know if he's like Larkin's skating is just incredible for a guy that size. But that's kind of where I am with cousins. Yeah, he's not, I don't think he's the best at anything.

He's not elite skill guy or elite playmaker or even elite goal score, but does so much really well. When you have that size and the skating two down the middle, I think, you know, you have him. You now have the recently extended Tage Thompson now, you know, and that could be a really interesting one to punch down the middle there for a long time. And they have options down the middle, too. You know, there's a couple players in that organization like Casey Meadowstatt, like Peyton Krebs, where you ask, they could play center, they could play wing, we'll kind of play around, you know, Yuri Coolidge, Noah O'SLander probably like that too, where we'll kind of play around with them and see where the best fits are for all these guys. With that Red Wings combination, Cider and Raymond, you know, we've talked about them on this podcast time. I don't want to make you do just Red Wing service here for my followers, certainly. But anything you want to add about those two, just their combination in the top two.

Insider, obviously, at number two, that's in the same tier as Jack Hughes. I think that, you know, when you talk redraft, is always a conversation. Oh, it's more than a conversation, I imagine. It's an intense discussion, I would put it that way. I think what you look at Detroit, I think what's really interesting, and you would know from following the organization so closely, is they've done a really good job amassing really high-end talent, in Sider, in Raymond.

We'll see how Simon Emerson does in the NHL, but he had obviously a very promising year in Fulanda, and they've done this without ever winning a lottery. Not winning, like, winning, like, as in getting the first pick. Winning is even getting a top three pick. Yeah. And, you know, obviously, most of that is guided by

how good cider has been. You have to give credit to how good Lucas Raymond was as a rookie in the National Hockey League as well, and it looks like a budding star. And, like I said, you have those two, you have, you have, you have Edvinson, you know, I'm a big Marco Casper fan, but time will tell on him as well as Edvinson. But collectively, particularly with Cider and Raymond, gaining those kinds of

star caliber players outside of the top three, it's not easy to do. I'm really curious to see with Raymond, like, how long it takes, because he obviously is already ahead of schedule. I don't think the Redmings expect him to make the NHL last year, and he didn't just make it. He made it and scored 20 goals and 57 points and all this, and he was really good right away. I'm curious how long does it take till the next step? Because I don't, I think it's possible he could take it this year. Like, I think you saw him hit a little bit of a rookie wall. And I think he could really hit it, hit the gas this year. Yeah, he's an interesting one. So I'm doing as part of the skier tier project, we do, I do with Dom and, and, uh, and Sean. And, and part of that is we make like a first

iteration in the list. And then I sat around a bunch of scouts. And it's, I was actually kind of surprised how many people were saying, you got to get Lucas Raymond, like, into like the top 100 players in the league, et cetera. And I'm like, oh, that's, you know, I didn't see that kind of praise coming for a guy who was just a teenager in the NHL. And, like I said, kind of slowed down a little bit in the second half. But I think everyone appreciates just, you know, how incredibly skilled and smart this player is. And I think the question was him is, can he do it even strength consistently? We know, like, he's going to, on the power, he's going to get his power play points.

He's going to be a big part of the Red Wings power play. Both next season and for a very long time. But with that, you know, with his physical maturity, can he get it done even strength consistently? I think that's going to be the big question for him in the near term, in the long term, I think he'll be fine. Yeah. And I think, you know, as he adds strength, it just gets easier and easier. But the reason that I think he will is that there was not a part of the ice that he wouldn't go to last year and that he didn't, that he wasn't effective in already. And so that's why I think you could see it as soon as this year.

I agree long term. It's really not even a question for me. But that's why I think short term, you can see it pretty quick here. A couple other guys I wanted to talk about. about Evan Bouchard is in the top 20 here at number 19. And I think everyone likes Evan Bouchard. He had a great year. But what I thought was really notable was his placement above, in the abstract,

I don't think top 20 would have sounded crazy to me. But when you see it, and he's above power, Sanderson, Nemitz, Dobson, a guy who's proven that he can score it at a crazy level in the NHL. What elevated him? I know he's close to some of it. I think he's one spot above power and all that. Yeah, I don't know. That's one that I got some pushback on.

two, and I wasn't always the biggest Evan Bouchard believer. This is a guy who kind of skyrocketed up for me after his play this past season, but I think you have to give the guy credit for the year he had, you know, maybe didn't score, say as much as Dobson. I think Dobson had like five to ten more points, but I think the difference is, you know, Bouchard played on the Emmington Oilers. He, you know, played on a team that was having a lot of success. He was a big part of their success, you know, scoring 40 points and, you know,

being a top four defenseman, you watched him in those. in those tougher games, you watch him in the playoffs. This is a guy who was making plays in those high leverage games and helping his team win. I know with his, he's not an amazing skater and thus maybe not, maybe we'll never be the best defender in the world. He's got a good enough size and sense that I think he'll be okay enough in that regard. But yeah, when you see him in the offensive half of the ice, he's got just tremendous hockey sense.

He makes so many plays. That shot's a legit threat. You know, this is going to be a PP1 guy. I think in the NHL for quite some time. He's going to put up a lot of points for the Oilers. And I can listen, I can see arguments and pickles other guys. You can say, you know, I might be leaning too much to what he did in that one year for the Oilers. And you can say, well, those guys, whether it's damage, whether it's power, whether it's, you know, even Dobson, they might have more potential.

And I can see the argument. But, I mean, he had a hell of a year. I think you got to give him a lot of credit. and guys who play like that at his age tend to become really important players for a very long time. What kind of feedback did you get on Lucas Reichel at 28? A guy you got above Lindell, above Caulfield, obviously, you know, some of the same defensemen that we're talking about,

but of Kent Johnson. I think some of the readers pushed back, but I didn't really hear much from like scouts like that. I think they mostly thought that one makes it. I mean, he's going to be like a top six four for Chicago next season. Might even be on the top line for Chicago next season. season and kind of that in that de brinket spot i mean i think this is a guy who was a point for game guy in the american league as a teenager has you know goes to the worlds like he did the other the other year

looks like a really important player for germany you know has all the tools skating skill hockey sense he competes well he could score uh i i don't think there's a lot of me you know you have minor quibbles here and there but i i think most people in the industry think this is guys this guy's a big time player um kind of and he's kind of like the last uh redmond to the past regime in terms of things that, you know, because obviously they just traded Doc too and probably Kane and Taser are going at some point here. So, uh, but he's, I think going to be a big part of Chicago's future. But I mean, I thought, I thought Doc would be that too. So I don't want to let's go to him because he's another interesting one. Like what a tough evaluation case he is.

You have him at 41. Um, it's still this case of like he's had some time here to do it and it hasn't happened. And yet he's still this big tooled up center. And we kind of know, know that oftentimes big tooled up centers do take a little longer. Yeah, but with Doc, he's also historically been inconsistent. I mean, you go, but you told me, you have about, you're talking about that 2019 drive. You go back to there. And that was the big debate with Doc is, yeah, he has all these tools, but it would be nice if you scored more than like a point per game, if you're going to be a top five pick.

But we see the tools. That's kind of still the argument with him. And that's why he had like, and that's why he got so excited after his great. rookie season in Chicago. Okay, now it's coming. It's coming now. Like, he is his, you know, it's all coming together from it. And then it kind of doesn't.

Then he kind of takes down a little bit. But he's still so young. And, again, we have six, four center who could skate like he can, who can make plays like he can, who has a skill he does. I don't know a lot to be excited about there. But there's also a reason why he was moved at this a young age. And it's because I think there's some, those inconsistencies need, have, have, continue to be an issue.

and we'll see whether Montreal can bring up the real player and him on a long-term basis. I do think it's interesting, like, just even narrative. Cousins had a good year last year. I think he had close to 40 points. Has Cousins been like that much better in terms of production than Doc in the NHL? No, and I'm actually having that question with NHL people. We'll do it at the year. Like, would you take Doc or Cousins, Doc are cousins?

And I think most people would come back with close, essentially. but I think you look at, I would say, you hate the whole day against the player, but when a guy gets traded, you start to ask questions about the player. Sure. And whether that's right or wrong, and I think with at least Cousins doesn't have that attached to him right now. Well, first of all, it's because teams always know more than anyone else about their own players. And so that immediately raises some alarm or raises some flags, alarm bells, whatever you want to call it. But to me, I think the reason I would take Cousins is the motor. And, you know, whether that's related to the concerns.

or not. I just think I don't see any world where Dylan Cousins is not a really valuable piece of any team in the league at some point. And I think you can look at worlds for Kirby Doc where you start to be looking for lineup spot, not lineup spots, but like, you know, prime roles for him. I think Cousins is in a prime role, almost no matter what. Yeah, I would tend to agree. All right. Last guy I wanted to ask you about this was from, I'm going to pull it up from the mailbag. So I don't have it in front of me to see who asked it. But Mattia Samuelson wasn't on here. And I didn't notice that the first time I went through it. But I did think that was was interesting when we're talking about a guy who was a 20 minute a night defenseman last

these i know basically the cutoff for the tier i think you had was middle pair right and so yeah i could argue you know like is he clear-cut middle pair but obviously there's a path to it yeah and i think i said that in my samuelson right up for buffalo i said i think he's a third pair guy with a chance to be a legit second pair guy um and this is kind of i i get the debate like i'm sure buffalo fans would argue hey he was already a tall four defenseman what what the hell um To which, you know, I can see, well, you know, he did that for a stretch last year, for sure. Maybe we want to see it a little bit more consistently just because I do still have the offense and the puck-moving questions with him a little bit. But I get it. I like San Jose.

And, you know, he's big, mobile, really physical. And I think he has first-pass offense. Those guys are not easy to find. And if you really want to twist my arm and say, no, he should be in there. He should be a top, he's a tall-forward offense. And I'll be like, yeah, no, I see the case. I'm not going to argue too strangely against that. My argument against that would be if you dropped him onto a legit middle of the pack team,

is he for sure a top four defenseman? You know, maybe, maybe not. I kind of seem in his peak kind of like that, maybe like a Joel Edmondson type of guy where maybe on a not a great team. He's a second pair of fenced man. Maybe on a better team, he's kind of like a four or five type of guy. I don't know, do you think that's fair? I do.

And in Buffalo, obviously, the two guys he's behind. It's, you know, the minutes on the left side are going to be really hard to come. Right. I'm sure you could play on his off wing, though, or one of those guys going to be played on his off wing. But yeah, I think Dallion and power are going to take a lot of ice time up over the next decade there. Yeah, absolutely. And ultimately, if you're not going to have a ton of offense, you have to be kind of Brett Pesci, Adam Pellick, good defensively to earn those kind of minutes. And, you know, that's just a high bar. It's not saying he's not, he can't be really good. But to get those kind

of minutes to be a true top four guy on a good team, that's kind of what you have to be if you're mostly defense. Yeah, I agree. And Adam Pellick is a good discussion point because it's, you know, when the Islanders were winning, he was kind of like, you know, the dream of what that kind of player looks like. And then when your team isn't winning, it's like, okay, now this is just this big mobile defenseman. It doesn't generate a lot of offense. He's like, okay, nice player, but, you know, we'd like more impact in general as opposed to people when you compare them to say like what Noah Dobson is doing. Right. Absolutely.

All right. I think that's going to do it for this portion of the list. but we're going to take a quick break. We'll be right back with a mailbag. All right, Corey, mailbag. You remember how to do one of these? We haven't done one in a while. I guess I'll just start here.

Very simple question from SKH 406. Who is being hired to share the Minnesota job with Mike Russo? That feels like our question to answer. Yeah. And, you know, I would be perfectly happy to share this with SKH. And the answer is, Ouch. I don't know how, but Mike Russo just punched me from all the way across the country.

I'm guessing he's like shaking his head at me. He says, I can't answer that. So sorry. I guess we got to hold off. He's the boss here. He's the real boss of the operation. So probably best to not spoil his news. But we'll move on to the next one here from James Kay.

Corey, you mentioned you're sticking your neck out with your Nolan foot prediction. What other predictions are you sticking your neck out on? Oh, yeah. I mean, I'm not actually sticking my neck out. Whether I'm right or wrong, I'll be fine. I think. We'll find out. But, um, I'll just thinking your neck out if you answered the question about Rousseau. Yes, that one I probably want. Yeah, that would be a whole thing. But to answer this question more specifically, you know, there's a couple of guys who maybe they're not the shiniest names in the prospect world, or maybe they were at one point. They've kind of faded a little. bit. You know, I look at where I say I have Barrett Hayton, who obviously was the fifth overall pick by Arizona, had a really good post-draft year in the OHL, then he turned pro. It's kind of been just a rocky couple of years since he turned, since he turned pro. But I think that's just a difference to one, how young he is and what I think he can do. And I, you know, he did, Arizona was a,

was a true, true bottom feeder last season, but he played big minutes at times with them, played important role. I thought he had some stretches of success there. I see some skill. I see some two-way ability that I think will translate to success over time and he can play down the middle. I look at Olin Zellweger and Kalen Addison's placement where history tends to, we're having other questions going to address this later, but history tends to say that small defensemen don't usually have that kind of success where they're important tough four defensemen. There aren't that many of them in the NHL. But I think with both Zellwager, and Addison. They're both tremendous skaters and both have really high levels of hockey sense

where I think if you're going to do it, they kind of look like that, I think. And you look at just how dominant, particularly Zellweger was in the dub last year and had a really good recent World Juniors. I think that guy's got a really good chance to be the next small defenseman success story. I look at Kriel Marchenko, too, who has all the tools. It's easy to make the argument, but he wasn't even a full-timer in the K-HL last season. He went up and down between the K and the VHL. I think to me there's just a difference to what I think the player can be when you have a six-three winger with his skating, his skill, his playmaking ability.

I think it's going to work. I think he's going to be a good player for Columbus next season. But it's, you know, I can see it not working too. All right. On to the next one, which is from Grimlock L. Corey Owen Tippett aged out of your U-23 rankings. How would he have ranked if he were eligible? Is he still a top six forward in your eyes?

Or was his point and a half point per game in the HL and Mirage? I think he's a top six forward. I don't know if he's ever going to live up to the true top 10 billing that he had or where I used to rate him really, really highly. But I think this is the top six forward. I mean, look at all the assets he has. He has got decent frame. He skates well.

He has a great shot. He has, I think, high-end puck skills. And, you know, his consistency has never been the best. And I don't think it will be the best going forward. but I think there's components there to help the flowers. You know, he's never going to replace Claudeau-Jureau. And I, you know, that name will be attached to Jou, I think, for a long time, for better or for worse. But I think he's a very good player.

You should get a lot of opportunity to Philly and Philly forward. Going from Florida to Philly, that should really help his opportunity. Oh, yeah, for sure. Jose T. says, Corey, after goalies, which player types are tougher to analyze? Do you like how all these questions are addressed to you? Nobody cares what I think at all. Which player types are tougher to analyze. It seems defensive defensemen or defensive with low offensive production or challenging.

If I'm not mistaken, you're a bit low on Marino, Ferraro, or Ryan Lindgren, and it wasn't odd, given their NCAA modest numbers. On your global ranking, there were a lot of 511 offensive defensemen compared to taller defensive d. For example, it's strange to see Addison way higher than strong defenders, such is Romanov or Gully, when these two seem a lot more valued in the NHL. Anyway, I'd be happy to hear your take on this. Please keep up the good work. Right. And to your point about the address, you know, when we put out the questions for this mailbag, it's usually done by me where I will put out a tweet or a, or we act on our real-time section

of our app. I will put out a request for comments. So they see my name. It's not you doing it. I'm not actually offended. When I get questions like this, I ask you. So I'm not actually offended, but I just thought it was funny. And I think Jose's question is.

you know, legit, like he's poking, you know, at Marino, Ferraro, Ryan Lindgren, who I underrated at the time. I think with those guys, it's, it's challenging. I think, you know, it's why you see the success rate of forwards in the NHL are higher than they are for defensemen, and they are higher than they are for goaltenders, is that with defensemen, you've got to get, if a guy, yeah, it's kind of a balance between, you can see the offense, you can see when a guy has good offense. That's obvious.

When they're going to be good at defensively, if the skating is truly elite, if the competitiveness is truly elite, given if they have no offense. Ryan Lindgren is a perfect example of this. This guy had very little offense in college. He had very little offense in the American League, but he was such a good skater, and really his competitiveness was so good that he found a way to kind of etch out a niche as a top four to, you know, middle of the lineup defensemen, even though he's not that big, too, he's average-sized defenseman.

So I think that is fair. And something I thought about when I was kind of looking through it, I'm like, It's Philip Broberg too low, 6-3 defensemen who skates like that. You know, maybe he could be above some of those smaller guys. These are things that kind of balance. You know, I had guys like Farivari and Keandri a little bit lower. I want to do my first draft. I'm like, no, they need to go higher because they're such good defenders.

And, I mean, it's a fair question. It's a fair to ask whether it's a hole in my evaluation process. I do think it's interesting because I think there's kind of a temptation every time a guy doesn't score. a ton to think, oh, he's this great defensive defense. But sometimes it's just a guy. Like, he's a third pair guy. And you need those guys. But, like, not everyone is Eric Chernak either.

Like, Chernak's a great defensive shutdown. He's probably a perfect example of a guy who goes way higher than he would have in his draft year. But you know what I mean? Right. Yeah, there's probably, you know, there's quite a few of them in the American League. Like, I'd say a Dennis Gilbert type who's an amazing skater and physical but has literally no puck game and just can't get out of the American League. So, you know, there's guys who look offensive who don't make it.

And there's guys who look very defensive who don't make it. It's projecting teenagers is never easy. I will say if some of those guys that Jose mentioned, I would bet on Gully to become one of those kind of, I really like the traits there. Oh, yeah, for sure. He is a high end defender. I don't doubt that.

David M., if Mason McTavish doesn't stick with the ducks this season, what's his best development path? Going back to junior seems like a waste, but he can't play in the HL yet. Could he be loaned to a team in Europe? I just, I mean, I agree with him. I think him going back to the OHL would kind of be a little redundant, but I might be naive, and I know how hard it is to me in the NHL,

but I have a hard time not seeing that guy in the NHL next season. He, that was a watered down world junior. Like, let's be realistic about what that tournament really was. But he just looked so above and beyond everybody there. He had a great season overall. I just, I can't. And he was good in his brief time, the NHLHLN, last season in his camp, his America League time, et cetera.

I just think he's an NHL player already. Yeah, some teams want to wait until their player is going to, like, dominate. But you could very easily see Mason McTavish having Cole Cillinger's season from a year ago, which I think was perfectly fine and probably beneficial for Cilinger. Yeah, I think he would be better. I think he'd be better than him personally. Not better than him this upcoming season, but better than the year he just had personally. Yeah, I know what you mean.

Yeah, I think so I think if you're going to get that out of him, you don't have to hesitate at all. You're right. It's hard to do, but I think I'm not too worried about McTavish not being able to play in the NHL this year. Darrell W. In your U-23 rankings, you have Baneer Slavkovsky and Wright lined up in order with Luke Hughes having not signed with the Devils. Would this trio be your Calder favorites? That's an interesting question. Yeah, I probably wouldn't say there's the clear ones. I think they'd all be in the mix. I probably wouldn't have Schleft. I would probably want, just because of age differences, I probably would lean towards McTavish, should he make it and power even, just because again, they're a little bit

old, they're older than, then Wright and Slavkovsky are? I don't even, I don't even think it's a 100% guarantee right and Slavsky are in the NHL all season. Like I think they both have really good chances, but I wouldn't even say it's a, other than, you know, Baneers, I think is a lock, but I don't think those two are locks. Yeah, no, I think those three you said to Benir's McTavish. Remember the third you just said? Power.

Yeah, power, or it would be my three. Why do you think Capo Caco hasn't come on as well or quickly as expected? Is it skating? Is it just opportunity or minutes? Looks great sometimes protecting the puck but hasn't been productive. Does he still have that upside? This goes to the point of the U-23 rankings, right? Yeah.

And it's, you know, there was a point where I had Caco a lot higher and I just, he's kind of crept down as time went on. It's kind of that balance you've got to make between looking at their opportunity, looking at the toolkit, and what they're doing and kind of balancing all those things. That's why I say Alexei Lefrenier, despite also not having a ton of production, it's still really highly ranked because I still, I look at the Rangers, and I think this is kind of a unique situation where these guys are coming into a competitive team. That first power play is absolutely loaded.

Opportunity has been scarce, but they're winning, and they're playing, you know, they're playing important role strictly Lefrenier in that playoff run. So that is a balance. You know, for example, we had Jack Hughes rated really highly there for a couple of of years. We had Dalene rated highly there for a couple of years, even when things weren't going their way in the NHL and then time passes and it looks obvious. Oh yeah, they should have been highly rated. But that was, I had some criticism of that. But also criticism of Kako being rated so highly and probably, you know, with time, maybe he should have been rated a little

bit of lower. Those are all balancing things you need to do. When Kako was a draft eligible, it's easy to play, you know, look at things in hindsight and say, oh, you know, he was overrated. But that guy was incredible in his draft year. He was a dominant player in league. He goes to that world championship and he was one of the best players there. He won a gold medal playing an important role at the world juniors for Finland. This looked like this really skilled and intelligent and physically dominant winger. I think since what we've seen in the NHL is, I think in those first few years, the physical dominance wasn't there.

I think it was better this past season. Then the question is, okay, well, he had a ton of skill when he was dropped eligible. And now it's like, oh, he has offense. He has skill, but it's not, it doesn't jump off the page at you. Like, I thought it would when he was younger. But the skating concerns were always there. I think we knew that coming in. It was just, we thought there'd just be more pure offense.

Do you remember at Traverse City the year that he was there? He played like one game. I think he had a hat trick. He was completely dominant in three-on-three. like it was not an obvious thing in hindsight that there was going to be I think I probably would have said he would have been quicker than Hughes to succeed in the NHL. Yeah, I think because the skating issue, you always worry it a little bit. Like, how is it going to happen when he gets the NHL pace? Can he play two games and be that successful?

But, yeah, I thought there would be more offense. I thought the skill level was higher than he's shown at the NHL right now. And it might still be yet to come. He's still a young player. All right, let's pick it back up, Corey, with this question from Jimmy M. I'm going to shorten down what he wrote here, but he's kind of talking about the big picture setup of the Eastern Conference, where you have this top heavy Atlantic division, this really deep Metro, some rebuilders coming in the Atlantic. The question is, who do you see is the most likely to be pressing for those last two spots up for grabs for the Atlantic Metro, those two wild cards? Yeah, and I think it's going to be, it's probably the most interesting thing that came out of the pipeline ranking series for me as you look at just how much young talent is there in the east right now. You know, we had Buffalo at one, Detroit and New Jersey at two and three, Ottawa at five. And Detroit and Ottawa are still top five on the cusp of adding a lot of talent in the off season as well.

Columbus still a respectable team as well they were in the top 12 Montreal in the top 10 but probably still a bit younger in the rebuild process I think it's it's really kind of the most interesting part of the Eastern Conference right now is you look at Boston Washington Pittsburgh particularly and the question is kind of when does when do those eras end

essentially those those long successful areas particularly in Pittsburgh and Washington and then you can even look at say team like the Islanders too in all this mix and be like, well, you know, they also didn't have a great year, but they clearly believe in themselves that they'll get back to form. They didn't really make any changes in the offseason to indicate otherwise. So I think that's really interesting. You know, if I had to pick out the two teams to me that could make, that be the biggest risers in the near term, it would be, I think, Detroit and Ottawa. I think those are

teams that both have good skater groups, really good young talent coming up, and both have at least attempted to address the goaltending questions. Whereas I think I would argue, like, I think New Jersey's skater group is better than either of them currently, but is McKenzie Blackwater VTec VTVanechak the question and goal? I don't know. If they actually, if New Jersey had average goaltending right now, if you can tell me, if you can tell me they're going to have a nine, 13 team savers enders next season, I would pick them. But I can't, I can't say that confidently right now. Well, I think it's interesting too. Detroit and Otto are the two teams who tried to step on the gas, like in free agency and in trades. They were probably the two most active

free agent, you know, teams. Whereas you look long term, I do wonder if that answer doesn't change to Buffalo and New Jersey a little bit because I think you love both of those. I mean, Detroit, I guess was a little ahead of New Jersey in your rankings, but you love both of these pipelines. he does have a fair bit of talent already. You got Dougie Hamilton in that mix. That could change the answer if we're talking about three years from now. Yeah, I like John. I like the addition to John Marino into that dynamic where I think you're going to see

a top for the future of some combination of Luke Hughes, Simon Nemich, Dougie Hamilton, John Marino. You know, I think that's a really good defensive group to go with the talent they have up front. Yeah, I think in the near term, just because I think, you know, we'll see. But I think Ottawa and Detroit did bet, you know, obviously, like I said, they stepped on the gas, they addressed. both just their goaltending, you know, Detroit through free agency,

Ottawa through trade. And to compliment all the young talent they have coming up, they're aggressively trying to turn that corner this upcoming season. But yeah, I think just you look at, I think we agree with Buffalo, New Jersey. I think if they fix that goaltending question, which I think it's more of an open question for Buffalo, New Jersey, and then it would be for Ottawa and Detroit right now, but we'll see how the season goes.

Then I would probably pick them, but that's just where I am right now in my assessment. at those organizations. How about this? Buffalo's got some goleys in the pipeline, but one of them happens to share a locker room with Luke Hughes. How about Luke doing a little recruiting of Eric Portillo on behalf of his future team this season?

Well, Eric Portillo can go to free agency in August, so that's going to, you know. That's what I mean. Yeah. Luke getting a little jump on the recruiting subtly, I guess. I don't know what the rules are. Yeah, that might be some violations there. Never mind.

I retract it. Mark and Don Pacquin says that. What do you think about Tage Thompson? This is a great question. Tage Thompson's deal. What did you think about him as a prospect? And is he really a 40-goals, 70 points guy? For those who didn't see, Tage Thompson signed a seven-time-seven deal last week, which I think is a fascinating country.

He had an amazing season. One of the probably the breakout season in the NHL last year. Outstanding year, nearly 40 goals. But it is the first big season he's ever had. And he comes out of it with a long-term seven-time-seven deal. What was your reaction? I thought it seemed a little high, but the cap at some point is going to go up. And if that is not a fluke, then it is going to be a bargain.

Yeah, no, I tend to agree. A friend and I were looking over Jacob Slavin's contract the other day of Carolina, which was a seven-year deal for five and a half a year. And probably there were some people who at the time it was signed probably thought, oh, it's a lot of money for Jacob Slavin. just like when people saw what Romoyosi got way back when they're like, oh, I saw it.

You know, you know, that's a lot of money for those guys. But there, it's a gamble and it could flame out or, you know, like I said, if the cap goes up and this is a guy's maybe, I don't know if he's going to be consistently around that 40, 30, 30,

40 goal. Let's say he's a consistent 28 to 33 goal score, 50 to 60 points, playing heavy minutes down the middle. Yeah, I think in five years, you're probably dancing if the cap even goes up a little bit at that number. And so Tage Thompson's development was interesting.

I did like him as a prospect. I thought he was a very good prospect. I think the skating got a little bit better than I thought he was. I thought he was kind of a heavy skater when he was younger. I don't think he's a burner now, but he skates quite well for such a massive guy. I always love the shot, which again, you know, goal scored. Not really surprising. I loved his skill.

What was what I didn't see coming was him becoming a center. Never mind a first line center in the national hockey league. He was always a winger for me. And that's, you know, we've, we've talked a lot sometimes on the pocket about if you're a center or if you're a winger and this guy kind of, for at least for me, came out of nowhere and all of a sudden it became a legitimate high in the lineup center. And, you know, those guys are valuable. I mean, I can say, is he $7 million valuable? You know, time will tell. I think, I don't know if he's going to hit 38 consistently.

I don't see that level. But I can see, like I said, 28 to 32, 20, you know, something around there. And if you're playing down the middle and you're available, you can. do that, you know, at an effective level, even strength, I don't, I don't hate it. Like I said, I think him and Dylan Cousins could be a really good one-two combo down the middle, both with a lot of size and offense. What other thing I thought was interesting is the Sabres kind of got burned the last time they did this, which was on Jeff Skinner, who had more track record, but was still, it was first

year in Buffalo, did something similar, and they kind of got burned on it. What does the floor need to be for Tage Thompson to just? Let's say the cap goes up a little bit. Skinner was a little bit older, though, I believe, right? That's true, yes. But what does the floor need to be for Thompson production-wise to justify this? 25-55 kind of thing. Yeah, I think if he's scoring about 25, if you're doing 25 goals, 50 points, you're not ecstatic at that cap hit.

But I think especially with the size he has and he'll be able to provide some probably some two-way value given that. I think you can tolerate it, especially with all the other young pieces that are coming up, you've got to pay somebody. and I'd rather pay the younger guy who just who can score. And getting a premium center is not easy. We'll see whether he's a premium center long term, but I'd rather pay that guy than the small winger. All right, I'm going to tack on one more of this. I'm just taking over this question.

What do you think this means for Jason Robertson, a guy who's kind of made this kind of production routinely in the last couple years, I guess two times? But the Thompson, I mean, the star's owner came out publicly last week and was talking about, seemed to be talking about potentially what young players want to be paid and all that. To me, when I saw the Tage Thompson contract, I think Jason Robertson, it's probably very good for him. I think that's a great point.

And Jason Robertson, who just scored the same level as Tage. You know, I think he had more points around the same number of goals. I think that if I was the team, you would argue the center versus winger thing a little bit to try and get the number down. And you might argue there was also some lot. line effects there. That whole top line for Dallas, they all, you know, three really good players there. But I wouldn't surprise me to see Robertson come away with that similar type of cap hit on that kind of contract or at least be holding firm for that kind of number.

Yeah, I agree. Leo B. Corey, in your 2021 list of you 23 players, you had Brandt Clark at number 47. This year he dropped to 87 on your list. what did you see from this past year that you decided to drop him so many spots on the list? I'll get to that in one second, but I just go back to the Robertson for one more second. I did think it was strange, seeing that comment from the Star's ownership. Yeah, wasn't it? Yeah.

Like, I would rather pay Jason Robertson than have guys who are older and not producing getting a lot of money, just my opinion. But anyways, going to... And he has a couple examples of that on his cap sheet, by the way. Yeah. Well, he took shots at Tyler Sagan and Jamie Ben. I saw that too, but it's like you want to have it both ways with those comments then, right? I don't know. I think that's just maybe some gains in ship, who knows.

Anyways, to Brent Clark. Ozzie, Brent Clark had a very good season. He was one of the top defensemen in the OHL this past season. His puck skills, his offensive hockey sense are great. He can do so many good things in the offensive half of the ice. I think with Brandt, it really, I always had issues with the skating, but I did lower the skating grade one notch this past season. It's not because he became slower.

I'm not just, obviously, we barely watched him last season, so you probably didn't get enough to appreciate it. Whether I'm right or wrong, time will tell. But I just lowered the skating grade, and just, like I said, that's kind of the argument of Brandt. I think in the junior level, he's a fine defender because he's so smart and he competes really well. But I think that, you know, you've watched,

you didn't, you watch him. I know you did a breakdown of him in his draft here, you know, that knock needs skating stride is ugly. Like it's, and if I, I tried to talk to people around the NHL about Brandt about that issue particularly. And maybe you have an answer, Max, but, you know, who in the NHL looks like that? Like, who has that kind of skating stride? I don't have an answer answer to that. And it's a very good question. I'm sure if you're watching a game, you could probably pick out one guy per game where you could say, hey, you know, maybe it can work like that. But it is different. Some scouts told me John Klingberg skating like that coming up.

And I watched him as an amateur, but I obviously don't remember that particular detail so much. If true, that would be interesting. But, but yeah, it's a, it's a really unique strategy. And I still think Brant's going to be a very good player. I don't think he's not, I don't think he's going to miss. I think he's going to be a top four defenseman in the National Hockey League. But I think, you know, that's kind of why Team Canada left them off their U-20 team, both in the winter and in the summer is that just some concerns there on how well he can defend

and play at a fast pace with those feet. I mean, he will be a big part of the upcoming December team. But I think that's the big debate. It always has been with Brandt and it still is. Well, how about this? Let's give Kings fans a dose of optimism here. Would it stun you if Brant Clark became Evan Bouchard? No, it wouldn't.

I think he has the same level of hockey sense and skill. And I think he's even a better defender at the same. age than Bouchard was. But yeah, I mean, I would argue that Bouchard was a slightly better skaters at the same age, too. Yeah. But that's what you're hoping for if you're... Right. I wouldn't call Brian a better defender. I think he's more physical, more competitive than Bouchard was. Okay. All right. On to the next one we got from Cain's prospects. In your pipeline rankings, you rated Justin Robeda, an elite skater. What sort of tools is a player need to possess in order for you to give them that high rating? We talked about this a little bit

earlier with Quinn Hughes. This is a really, the point is you don't want to have very many guys with this elite grade, right? It's supposed to be by definition almost impossible. Right. And that's why I'm still high on Robina. Despite him being a midish round pick and being a tiny player, as I think is you just watch him on when you watch his ships and the guy just flies around the ice. It's a combination of his skating and a high motor. He just, when he brings the puck up the ice, he burns past guys. He's buzzing all around the offensive zone. You know, the question of him is, like, does he have a ton of skill in playmaking ability at

that size? Is it really going to work? But I think he has a game that will translate to the pros. I think that's why I think he's a good chance to be on the upcoming world junior team. I don't think he's not a lock when we did our protected roster. He wasn't on the team. But I can see with a big year, I believe he just got traded to the Quebec rampart. So he's going to have a lot of talents around him.

I can see him building a case for himself. Ramzan says, who are a few of the top players outside the NHL that are not signed or drafted? Any gems in other leagues that need to get a look at the NHL level? I wish I had the answer to that question. I mean, there's a couple of college-free agents that didn't get signed. I think, you remember the top of my head now. There's the one kid from North Dakota and there's the one kid from Mancato. I need a pull-up.

Reese Gabor is the kid from North Dakota, who I think a lot of people are going to be interested in this upcoming season. And the defense from Mancato is Jake Livingstone. I think those are the, at least early on, those are the two guys that I know going into next season. But I'm sure things are going to change. Logan Horn says, what do you think is the biggest inefficiency

in modern NHL draft philosophy? Is it players height? Gives the example, Logan Stankovan, a lack of trust in... Who has zero in HL games? That is right. Lack of trust in junior league. outside of the CHL, he gives the example of Kelmacar.

He's got a few NHL games. And late day to birth, he gives the example of La Karamaki in 2022, or he says, is it something else? Who also has zero in NHL games? Well, not that late of birthday, right? Is he, he's June or July? I guess July. Yeah. Because I remember that I always make that little comment because I got, I had people like,

I think with like the Dustin Wolf thing went up when I had my like, whatever, a hundredth or something on the U.23. Like I heard, you know, how does Dustin Wolf this low? And, you know, I hear people would say something about Wolf and Levi, like, oh, you know, the small goalie things overrated. You look at Wolf and Levi who have a combined one NHL game between them. It's like, you know, if you're going to prove that that thing doesn't work, they actually got to actually prove it. You know, there's a lot of great American League players don't become great NHL players. And I really like both them.

You know, where I have Wolf rated right now, you know, would be a guy if I was drafting him in that. draft again, I'd be targeting him in the first round of the draft. Like, that's a, you know, a massive uptick from where he was actually picked, but he's still going to prove it. And that's why I made that court about Stan Coven and Liquor-Mackie, which, and I think, I don't think when I talked to NHM anyway more, I don't think height is something that people like overlook personally. I think it's just, it's an issue.

And, but, you know, they see how many small players are successful in the NHL. And I don't think it's, you know, you have the debate about what works from the playoff, etc. But I don't think that's really too much of an issue. I think the late birthday thing is not an issue at all. I think everyone's aware of that

everyone who works in the NHL is aware of how the birth date issue works in the NHL where you have this September 15th thing and it pushes guys back and you have to adjust for all those things. The one thing that I struggle with and we discuss this issue sometimes on the pod is I do wonder if the premium position

scale is tilted a little too much, where I understand that centers and defensemen are worth more. I value them more. There's no doubt about it. I do wonder, though, if good wingers get killed too often in the draft in favor. That would be the one area that at least in my opinion. That would apply to La Karamaki too. La Karamaki and Yolk and Yolk and Kamel both.

Yes. Danila Yorov would be another one. Yep. Two, you know, that's, you know, and the whole Russian things, a whole other issue that's so complicated. We can, I don't know if we were talking about. about that one because that would we don't have time yes exactly but I think that's that is the one that for me I struggle with I wonder if the pen I understand why they are worth more there's no

question about it in my mind but it's the question is has the pendulum swung up too far I think in like this past draft how many wingers win the top 15 like one or two is like McGrady and I'm trying to think of anybody else like at that really really top of the draft win in the top 15. Slevkovsky. Slavkovsky, first overall pick. Depends whether you think Cutter Goce is a winger or a center, right? But I think didn't they draft them as a center?

Yeah, and then Lekiramaki at 15. Yeah. Otherwise, it's just all centers and defensemen. Right. It's fair. I mean, I agree with the wisdom. I'm centers and defensemen above all the way, but there is always a point where good advice can lead you the wrong way

if you don't, if you follow it too religiously, it can happen. So I think there's a fair argument to be had there. Webrister says, who are some players that you had given up on as prospects, but turned out fantastic later? This is a maybe a little bit of optimism for people who have heard or read you down on one of their players that maybe who's the guy that you were down on, maybe even out on, who turned out to be really good. Really good is interesting.

been guys I've been down on that may be rebound in a little bit. Like I thought Tolvanian was trending in a bad direction. He turns into a regular player for the National Predators. But I wouldn't say he's a top player for them. The word and the question was fantastic. So I would think that means like top half of the lineup. Yeah, guys I thought were just going to be absolutely terrible or something or just like not any. Or guys that you had given up on.

So they probably like a first round pick who you were like, nope, it's going the wrong way. but then they got to the NHL and they were back to being really good again. I'm sure our readers will gladly give up, give me some suggestions. Give us some submissions here, guys. I'm sure if you're a fan of a team who has a player Corey had given up on, you remember it. So how about, let's crowdsource that question. We'll come back to it next time we have a show. Yeah, I'm sure there's some out there.

I forgot where I feel like I gave Dennis Guriano of some strong ratings. Is he still, is he considered a top six forward in? I don't think so. he probably would have been a year or two ago, but I think he had a tough year, maybe a couple years. Yeah, you know, that one. So like, it's a balance there. As I'm sure I'm missing somebody obvious that somebody will remind us, but.

Yeah. All right. We'll come back to that one. We're going to finish with, I think, the best question of the day. I love this. It's from Beasts. He says, in your estimation, who is the furthest from contending for the cup? Is it a team at the bottom like Chicago or San Jose or a team whose window has closed and doesn't

realize it yet, like Vegas or Washington? And by the way, I think a year ago, some people would have put San Jose in that category, too. What is the timeline for these teams to actually be true contenders again? Well, I don't think, what do you think this? What I love about the question is it is Washington further away, despite the fact that they have a very real chance to be a playoff team next year, which by definition makes it more likely to win the cup than Chicago. But Chicago has already, if they don't win one, then Chicago has already started this rebuild process. whereas Washington hasn't even started it yet. Yeah, I think Washington and Vegas both, particularly Washington, I think, has a good team.

I think they're, you know, in the NHL, if you make it, you got a chance, big into the playoffs. So I think, especially given that I would have included Vegas in this conversation, but then they lose Robin Lainer and now they have got a major question and goal now, even though I do like the roster quite a bit, even though it's, like, Washington, it's quite an old roster. So I think Washington is, I don't hate the situation right now. Okay, so let's take them out. We'll see, you know, with Baxterum, that's kind of the big one there, right? Like, you know, is he, you know, how healthy is he, how effective is he going to be?

You know, that's the big one there. We can take them out. Let's sub in like Boston or the Islanders, along with Vegas, you know, Chicago, Arizona, Montreal. Like, who among those teams is farthest away? Do you get, you know what? You get the philosophical distinction here. Yeah, I do. There becomes a point where you probably hit the no-return point as.

as an older team that keeps going for it and eventually. And that's what we're talking about, like eventually the good times in Pittsburgh and Washington. At some point, they're going to run out. It's just a matter of when. I think you kind of saw that with San Jose at some point, right? They just kept running the same team back over and over and over again.

And they're having a lot of success until they didn't. And then I think San Jose, they're kind of in this limboat where they're trying to win games, but they're trying to rebuild to. and it's not really clear what their near-term and long-term objectives are exactly. Whereas I think Chicago is going for the true terror down to the roots. You know, even, you know, 20-year-old Kirby Doc doesn't fit as part of our rebuilds kind of thing. You know, so it's, I would probably say, you know, those, I still think teams like Pittsburgh, Washington,

even Boston to an extent are in the mix. But eventually, and it could be with the next two to three. years, there will be a point where I think a team like Chicago has a better long-term projection than they do. I go the other way because I just don't, I can't, I can see it with Washington. I agree. I'm eliminating from them from this conversation. Boston, I would have a hard time seeing getting out of the east almost in any scenario.

And for that reason, I can't say that they're closer knowing that they're going to have to do at some point which Chicago's already done. Now, they'll have the luxury of being able to trade, you know, if they want to. to David Posternock potentially, and that could get him a kickstart on the rebuild. They'll still have Charlie McAvoy. They'll still have actually a few really good young defensemen that maybe gives them a little bit of an edge. Swayman's a good young goalie.

Yep, that's right. Yeah, okay. So maybe I'm not giving him Boston enough credit. Well, I think with Swayman, and I think when I've talked to scouts, is the kind of the question where Swayman, too, is, you know, can he be a 65-star guy? You know, he split the starts with Woodlawn his Allmark last year. And it's like, you know, can he be the guy you lean on?

He's your everyday guy. He plays every night for you in the playoffs to, you know, he's a true number one goalie. Can he do that and still maintain the high level performance that he did last season? I think that still be determined. But overall, his early time as a pro has been quite impressive. I just think I'm taking the, like, better to have started the process here once you hit the point of no return. Maybe I'm just picking the wrong teams as an example of it. But, yeah.

I feel like you don't know you've hit the point of no return. until you've actually hit it kind of thing. I think you always think you always hit one year. I think a good team, a better example would be the Winnipeg Jets. Okay. Kept running the same quarterback and now they're not even making the playoffs anymore. That is a better example. So that's all I needed, Corey.

It was just you make the point for me and then I'll win the argument. There you go. All right. Let's end it right there. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect series. You can subscribe to the Athletic Audio Plus on Apple Podcasts, get all the bonus content from our entire network. It's going to start you with a 30-day free trial,

and then it's just 99 cents a month after that. Right now, you can subscribe to the athletic for $1 a month for six months when you visit theathletic.com slash hockey show. And folks, there's going to be a lot of content coming very soon. So make sure you get on board with that. We'll talk to you soon.