The Athletic Hockey Show - Can Knight be a true No. 1 for the Blackhawks?

Episode Date: March 14, 2025

Max and Corey break down the latest 2025 NHL Draft ranking featuring Matthew Schaefer at No. 1 in an impressive group at the top of the list. Before that, the guys discuss some of the younger players and prospects moved at the NHL trade deadline and they close things out with listener questions in the mailbag.Hosts: Max Bultman and Corey PronmanExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Corey Pranman for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. This episode brought to you by E-Trade from Morgan Stanley. We're throwing it back, Corey, just you and I for this one. We got a new draft list that you put out on Tuesday we're going to talk about. We got a mailbag. But I did want to get your thoughts first on a couple of the younger players and prospects that were moved at the trade deadline. I think, you know, the most notable deal in that vein is two.

young centers who have been very well thought of in various points of their career. Dylan Cousins and Josh Norris traded for each other within the division, the senators and sabers. Just give me your first reaction here on what this one was, because Cousins was a name I think we knew was out there. I was a little, I didn't know Norris was going to be a guy that moved at this deadline. They end up going for each other. Yeah, a very unique trade. You have two centers of roughly similar ages and roughly similar contracts in the same division being traded for each other. And, you know, we can work into the players. But to me, this opens up scenarios where it seems a decent chance this is going to end up being one-sided for someone.

Not sure who exactly, but just given these, you know, just how similar these players are. And it feels like this could end pretty poorly. And, you know, for one of Buffalo and Ottawa and obviously very well for the other one. Dylan Cousins obviously is the more highly touted player historically, the higher draft pick. He's bigger, more prolific international career. But Josh Norris has been better this season. But I think you look at Cousin's Toolkit with the size, the skating, the compete, and you think that if he can get back to where he was a year, two years ago,

even close to that, I think there's a good chance Ottawa could end up on the better. side of this. And it did feel a little bit like Buffalo was trading low. And they've kind of gotten themselves into a scenario where they've had so many high draft picks for a long time. And they seemed relatively happy a couple of years ago with the direction of the franchise. And they just gave a ton of money to all the key players. And then they kind of regress. And they get more or less stuff because with all that money allocated, what do you do exactly? Exactly. And that's the spot that I think is the toughest to get out of because it makes it harder

to move the furniture around it. You have a guy coming up on a restricted free agency this summer in JJ Peturca. So yeah, I guess you could do something there. But is Petrka not one of the main three or four guys you would want to keep there if you're Buffalo? So it puts you into a logjam. And I do think that made Cousins, the odd person out, the one that it made the most sense to trade. He was having some especially tough looks if you go back and watch some of the clips

that were coming out of Buffalo directly preceding his trade. And yet I do think he comes out the best player in this deal. Not because I think he's so much more productive or anything like that than Josh Norris when he's in the lineup. So Josh Norris has only played 60 games once in his NHL career. And that injury tag, I think would really frustrate me from a player of that, you know, that cap hit where you need him to play in your lineup. I think he's slotted to be their first line center tonight when they play or Wednesday night when they play the Red Wings, you know, for a guy who you're counting on to be a big part of your lineup, I at least want to know you're in the lineup.

And I think that's something Dylan Cousins brings, even if it had gotten frustrating. I prefer the Ottawa end of this deal. They also got a pick out of it, which I would have thought if someone was throwing a pick into this, what it would have been Ottawa. But that's another matter, I guess. Buffalo is interesting because actually you kind of look at what the team's done this year. Yes, they've lost a lot of games. I think that like top 12, top, like something around there and scoring in the league this year.

And obviously, scores are everything. You got to get the puck out of your net too. And it's not just all on the goalies. But I do wonder if the solution is really shuffling the skaters around, particularly the forwards, and it wasn't trying to find better ways to improve their goals against column. There's something to that. And I think they have a few forwards. They kind of did that a little bit last summer,

trading Matt Savoy for Ryan McLeod. I think that was a good move that a lot of people raised their eyebrows out at the time. I think it's worked up pretty well, even if Matthew Savoy does become a pretty good player for Edmonton. It was a type of player Buffalo didn't really have. And I think he's been pretty good there. They got to figure out what's going to go on with Alex Tuck. I think that's like a key immediate need.

He's important to them and he is another guy, maybe the most of that different element that they lack. Another one of the shuffles they did was Middlestadt for Byron and Byron, and they also have to figure out what they're doing with that one there too. Yeah. So when I look at what they have coming, what they have in the lineup and what they lack, you know, I think you need another guy in that McLeod mold that can play in the top six.

I think you need a right D. Can you make that happen out of Bowen Byram and I don't know what your other piece is. If you end up trading talk, that's another one you have to replace. But I like No Osland on the way. It's just he's similar to some of the guys they have. I like Yuri Kulik on the way. It's, you know, but how big of a needle mover is he? I don't hate where Buffalo is.

I just think that ironically, Cousins is probably the kind of player you want to bring in. It's just that it wasn't going well with it. I mean, you're living this right now with your coverage of the Red Wings. It's just like, yeah, they have talent and you just wonder, okay, how do you take that next step? How do you leap Ottawa? How do you, you know, you know, you have Detroit's building, Montreal's building, all those teams, I'm sure, and their fans, I'm sure are, have relative degrees of, you know,

excitement and hope for the future based on their young players. And it's which one of them is going to win out, you know, going to Ottawa side of the deal right now. I think if cousins can bounce back and not bounce back, like he's not saying he's going to get all the way back to, you know, 30, 35 goals, 65-ish points on a consistent basis. But let's say he's a legit top six, four, second, maybe first line center in the NHL, with him, with Stutzla, with Brady Kach. Jake Sanderson that's to me

had the potential to be a really exciting young group players that you could see a consistent playoff team coming out of that group. Consistent playoff team, yes.

And I think you do put a lot on what's Brady Kachuk going to be like in the playoffs and how exciting that possibility is. He does seem like a guy who's going to elevate that much more. I do question, they don't have as much on the way.

I think Sanderson and Stutzelah have the capability to be big gamers. Yeah, it's pretty much just Yakubchuk. and that's it more or less. And even if he's not having a great year right now, despite his great preseason, I could see him need a little bit of American League time.

Yeah. So if Ottawa, I think, is going to join that tier of teams that you're worried about going on a deep run, that's, I think what the question comes down to is what more is on the way. And maybe,

you know, the cap's going up. Everyone's going to have a little more to spend. Maybe they can solve it that way. But I do think they're in a good spot in large part, because I think they have the best goaltending outlook of anybody, even without the prospects, like Lena's Allmark was awesome.

I watched him play Detroit on Monday. He stole them that game. Detroit had 49 shots. He stood on his head. That's the kind of piece that you need to be the differentiator, especially with a young team that you expect some ups and downs with. I love Allmark there. I also think it's interesting.

In trading Norris for cousins, you kind of continue the Eric Carlson trade tree. It looks like the return for Eric Carlson now a few years out is going to be both of their top two line centers for a lot of years to come. I guess that was already true in the case of Norris. But, again, cousins, you expect to maybe be a little healthier, a little more in the lineup for that one. Let's go to another deal, though, Corey,

and that was probably the headline maker of the deadline, the Miko Renton and Trade to Dallas. It's a complicated deal. Carolina, I think, is in a bad, optically a bad spot when you make this move and you have to trade the player away. You're in a clear win-now spot and what you mainly get out of this is futures.

But I want to ask you about Logan Stankovan because he did score in his debut. He is a good young player. He's already been productive in the NHL. of course he's not Miko Rand and he's not yet in terms of this year, even Martin Natchez. But what do you think of this for Carolina overall and particularly Stank of him? I think there's a lot to unpack in this trade because I think there's, I think there's some really interesting variables. First of all, I answer your question on Stank, Kevin, you know, really good player.

I think he's going to be a top six wing in the NHL for a long time. Excellent, excellent competitor. I think his work ethics off the charts. He's a very good skater. He's very skilled. Makes plays. He's score. Obviously, he's 5'8.

I think the question with Stancovin, is he a special 5-8? Like, is he called Caulfield special? Or is he closer to Alex DeBringit? I think different players in some regard, De Brinket probably a little smarter. Stancovin, probably faster. But I think he's probably closer to Brinkett than he would be to Caulfield in terms of pure talent. But, you know, a really good piece.

Let's kind of unpack some of the other things. I'll kind of ask, go to you with some of the stuff. too. Let's talk about Miko Rant in for a second. I think he's in really interesting case as a player because he's obviously a tremendous player. I mean, just obviously cup winner, huge numbers, you know, big guy, really skilled, really smart. Skating just okay for me. And I do wonder with him how he is going to fare outside of the Colorado environment. You know, not to say that he's not still going to be an excellent player, but, you know, when you have McKinney, you have McCar, you have those elite skating skill guys who can really drive it and help you get your power play points.

You know, to me, like, is Miko Renton? I don't think he's a top 10 player in the league. I would be, I would have reservations and calling him even a top 20 player in the league. Does that sound unreasonable to you? I think he would be top 20. I mean, I get what you're saying. The scoring's been at a level where it's hard to, until you see it definitively the other way, I think it's hard to take him out of that dear.

Is he that? I mean, he's not David. pastor knack right he's not nikita kuturov but how many other wingers are you taken over him in the n hl no i think that's a great point you know i i kind of do a similar dance with a leon dry side a little bit in that i think he's obviously fantastic but just i always wonder how he would do in a different environment with without macdavit and i think you're talking about margin you're not completely you know this guy's completely you know rated too high by the public but i just think maybe it's a couple of you know positions in a top 100 rank or something like that and

So that's my one thing on Rantan. And then the second thing goes to Carolinas. Obviously, they're a really good team. Even with Rant in the lineup or Martin Natchez, did you think they were the best team of the East, second best team of the East, third best team of the East? Where would you put them?

I would probably put them third behind Florida and Tampa. But that's how I have it too. So I guess that to me is, I think that could be a frustration for a Carolina fan. is they kind of feel like, you know, they made the big Jake Gensel move last season. It kind of feels like, you know, it feels like they're always in it,

but there's no big push there to kind of put them over the top. And you could argue, well, are they clearly the best team? We're like among the best teams in the league, like a Florida Panthers are where you just keep pushing because this is your moment or you don't. I also look at Carolina and I think really good team. In the playoffs, though,

the elite players tend to play more than they do during the regular season. And I look at Carolina's very best players. And I would stack them up against Tampa, Florida, maybe even Toronto. And I would ask, how do they match up? And I would guess not quite as well. So I could understand from Carolina's perspective, they may feel we aren't in a position to completely do that. And they're going to trade those futures.

There's no way they're making the, they're keeping the 2008 first round pick that's going at some point in the next year or two to somebody for something. But I do, if I was a Carolina fan, I would at least be a little bit frustrated. And it feels like this team never fully commits to making the traditional rentals or something like that. And not saying that's always the best course of action. But they have made plenty of draft fix. They have plenty of prospects. I think if you're a Carolina fan, you'd like to see them really make an aggressive push

as opposed to stockpiling assets, even if slogan Stankelvin is really good. Yeah, it's tough. I mean, when the first deal went down with Colorado, that was kind of my takeaway was this is great for Carolina because either you're going to extend Miko Ranton in and have one of the, you know,

15 or so best players in the league under contract for the next eight years, or you upgraded Martin Natchez to Miko Rantan for this run, which may well have been or may well turn out to be their best chance in a year that the East was looking certainly pretty well. wide open, maybe a little less wide open now with the Moose Tampa and Florida made at the deadline. But I liked that all in with it. And I thought you could totally justify that price for a guy in Nitchis who very well could have walked a year from now anyway, right? I don't hate going from Nettchus to Stankovin and two firsts. I actually like that quite a bit. But it just

doesn't seem like the phase that Carolina ought to be in right now is doing that. So I agree. They'll trade the picks. It's Nettches and Jack Drury to Stank. of it. It is. I'm not that worried about losing Jack Drury. Carolina feels like you can free-d-print Jack Drury's right at this point. Yes. But, you know, he's a player. I get it. That's probably what Jackson Blake is right now. Right, exactly. So they can do that and they have, you know, a farm system that has yielded them enough supplemental players, but it's the top end. And in Rattan, and they had a top end. And I get why they didn't do it. I'm not saying it was stupid, but it just, I do think I'd be a little frustrated by it if I was, they're at risk.

of becoming the next San Jose Sharks in terms of what the sharks, they were knocking on the door forever, they didn't get there and now they're going to this painful rebuild. That's a whole lot more painful than it's going to be for a team like Pittsburgh, team like Washington, a team like Detroit that actually got Stanley Cups out of it. You know what I mean? James Myrtle had a good article after the trade deadline went up on like the market plates for first round picks and future assets. And he quoted something that Tampa manager Julian Breeze was said who's been on the opposite. and he's been ultra-aggressive when it comes to futures. They don't have futures.

They have no problem. Other than Isaac Howard, there's almost nothing left in that farm system in terms of draft picks, significant prospects, anything. I don't even sure how good a prospect Howard has, be quite honest. That's a whole other issue. But Julian Breedwa said, you know, that, you know, trying and failing will yield less regret for us than failing to try. And I thought that was a really good line because I understand the math.

Like, let's say you, let's just focus on netches for Randen. And let's just say that Randen is like a significant upgrade on net just. Realistically, if you look at the math, you're improving your Stanley Cup odds by maybe what, like 1%, 2%, 3% maximum. By doing those rentals, you're never like truly moving the needle that dramatically. So I understand someone would be like, well, why would I, I'd much rather get the asset for seven years or eight, you know, or whatever, the guy for half a season when it will barely change the math. But I feel that you also only have so many years you can be a contender. I know everyone wants to stretch those things out as long as possible,

but it's not always realistic to be contending forever. And at some point, you've got to find your window, I think, to go for it. And I'm not sure for Carolina where that is, because they still should be plenty good for a very long time. You know, I think, you know, when they bring Alexander to Keish in next year, I think it's just going to help extend the window. he's going to be a really, really good top four defensemen for them starting next season, presuming he signs.

But I do wonder at some point, when do they really make that push to... Well, and isn't he replacing Orlov and Orr Burns at that point? Yeah, but he's younger. And I think he's going to have a little bit more impact, definitely than a guy like Orlov. I mean, maybe not, you know, who knows initially, but I think the projection is he's a better player than that. I think from my standpoint, it's just the Metro Division in particular. I like Carolina to come out of that.

Anything can happen in the playoffs. I know Washington's having a great year. If you put the teams on paper. It feels like they're a bit of a mirage though, right? I would tend to agree. They're shooting percentages, tops in the league. They're a really good team.

Don't get me wrong, but I just don't, something optically to me doesn't, they don't look like a contender on paper. And maybe I'm just wrong. And Capps fans will yell at me, but I just don't see it. I think they are this good as a regular season team.

I just want to see. And I did a whole thing with Laz earlier this year on that like I kind of tried to break down why it's working and I I believe in it for the regular season but we haven't seen Dylan Strom be this guy in the playoff yeah I was going to say Strom in the playoffs protists in the playoffs with their foot speed that oh I think protis in the playoffs is going to work I think the defense stick this size in his compete are great I just worry about the feet there uh you know there's like said I said I sandine in the playoffs even a little bit would worry me so anyways just going down a rabbit hole there yeah but I my point is is I think Carolina's path to the conference final is much clearer than it is for Tampa who might see Florida in the first round. So that's where like I think I would like to see Carolina have just hung on to rantan and gone for it because you have that chance. They have the clear path to going to the final, at least the conference final. And if you win that one, you know, you have to at least like you're like whatever the odds would have been 40%, 45%. That's a heck of a

chance. So I'd like to see him go for it, but that's what it is. Let's move on to one more. before we get to a break here. And that was the Chicago Blackhawks deal with the Florida Panthers, the Seth Jones trade. And they get Spencer Knight back. And Spencer Knight has obviously had his ups and downs in his career so far. But, and I was talking to Laz about this, is it fair to say Knight was the best regarded goalie prospect of the last, what,

decade coming out, right there with Ascarov, certainly. I was going to say, Ascarov is right there with him. And I guess depending on your perspective, you'd say Wallstep, but he's had a really tough season this year. Like I said, I think he's definitely up there. He's a guy who I think has a really good chance still to be a legitimate long-term starting goal. The guy who plays 50, 60 games reliably for a team for a very long time.

He's had ups and downs, you know, played most of the year last year in the American League. And I thought he looked better when I watched those games that his numbers suggested. I don't think he's blown it away statistically as a pro. But I do like him. I think he's a really good player. I think he showed enough good in his time as a pro

where I think Florida still thought they had what they thought they had initially that these guys are starting goalie. But there was enough inconsistencies there where they probably were at least a little bit hesitant on do we want to have $11 million or whatever it is invested in net here long term between him and Bobrovsky? Do we know for sure that this is the solution or is he good enough to completely lapse

Babrovsky in the near term? So I don't think he blew them away enough in the last year or two for them to answer those questions definitively in Knight's favor. So I understood why they moved on from him, but I think he's going to have plenty opportunity in Chicago. Chicago's got nothing coming in net right now, like Drew Camasso's on a starting goal of the NHL.

Adam Guyon's talented, but he's really fighting it in college this year. You're talking a guy if he makes it, it's two, three, four years down. the road at least. You know, I think so. I think Knight's going to have plenty of opportunity here to show he is the guy. People thought he was five years ago, and we'll see how it goes. But I think, you know, that's a big piece for Chicago.

They were missing. You know, they've drafted plenty of defensemen. They've drafted their centers. You know, still need to get a little bit of skilled scoring up front still. But they did not have that piece in net. So it's huge of the answer. That same thing like when San Jose got Ascarov. But also with now with Seth Jones gone,

I know people have their opinion of this Jones, but he's still a really good hockey player. There's a lot of work with to do in Chicago. A lot of talent, but a lot of work ahead of them still. And that's what fascinates me with Knight is that he goes from a team where he's kind of, they're in the spotlight because they're good,

but it's not the hockey market that Chicago is. And you couple of that, so there's going to be a lot of attention on him. And the team in front of him is a lot worse. And my first thought was like, oh, this seems like kind of a recipe. for trouble. And then in his first two starts as a Blackhawk, he goes out and faces 42 shots, saves 41 of them, gets the win. Next one sees 39 shots, saves 36 of them, gets the win.

Ironically, you know, obviously Colorado is Colorado. So there's no shame in losing it. But that's the only game he lost. He's up to Colorado on 20 shots. But he's come in and he's done a really good job under heavy fire right away. He's already seen, what, 100, over 100 shots in three games. Yeah. And I think he can still be very good for them, but it's just you're, you know, I'll see how the next month and then off the next season goes for him in that regard. But I do like Spencer a lot and think he's going to be very good. Now you look at Florida and they're just kind of like their counterpart in the state, Tampa. They're just burning it to the ground in terms of their future assets.

I think Mackie Samiskevich is really the only thing left in their organization that's, of anything, significant from a high pick perspective in terms of prospects or future draft picks. And, you know, they've kind of moved everything for this move. And then you lose Aaron Eklad to suspension right after this happens. But if he, you know, when he comes back, they're going to have a really good team with Seth Jones in the lineup. All right. All right.

Let's take a quick break right there. We're going to come back, Corey, and talk about your latest 2025 draft list. All right, we're back. And Corey, you put out your latest 2025 draft ranking list on Tuesday of this week. No surprise at the top still Matthew Schaefer. number two was Michael Mesa. He's at the top of a tier that has a lot of familiar names if you've been listening to the show. You got James Hagan's in there.

You got Caleb Denaa. You got Porter Martone. But Misa elevated himself to the top of that. Obviously, you think he's a second best player in the class. I'm wondering, though, is the number one debate, as we've kind of seen James Hagan's slip just a little bit at Boston College, a little less buzz around Porter Martone? Is that debate at one now, as simple as Schaefer versus Mesa? I don't think it's simple.

I think it's legitimate debate yet, at least among teams I talked to, but I think it's an emerging debate. I think two months ago, I think for a lot of teams that it wasn't a debate after how good Schaefer looked at the CHL and TDP series and then in the OHL and then into the world juniors before he got hurt. And then Mesa, you know, over the last month or two has been on just an absolute tear in the Ontario League. You know, ever since Igor Turner Shoev really joined Saginaw.

that team and you know, Zane Perk's been on fire lately. That whole Sagina team has just really been scoring a lot. And Mises has been a huge part of it. You know, I think you look at this guy. He's a great skater, 6-1. You know, he's going to hit whatever, 60 goals, 120, 130 points this year in the Ontario League.

I'll beat as a third-year junior player, but still, you know, just a dominant season from him overall. And I think you can create an argument that, hey, like, this guy has a chance to be a legitimate first-line center in the NHL and you think, well, I think Schaefer could be a number one D. And it's like, well, which one of those do you prefer? Which one of you more confident with the projection? You know, the tool grades I have on them are almost identical, quite frankly.

So I currently lean Schaefer right now, but I absolutely buy that it's a debate. And, you know, I'm not going to come on and this show and criticize a team that they took Mesa at one. Is that a situation where you think it comes down to what a team has in its pool? Is there, it doesn't, you're talking about the center versus D. They're both premium. Yeah. And I think for, like I said, I don't think that's a universal opinion.

I think there's quite a few people in the league that sees Schaefer than a drop. And I think if you think there's a drop at the top of the draft, then that's usually significant enough that you just take the best player. But I can, but for those who think that it's close, and I know some who think it's close, that I think absolutely position could come into play. Do you buy Misa as a, as a full on center? at this point? I do.

I think there are some concerns on whether he's physical enough on whether he's a good enough player off the puck. I've seen enough of that this season. I think he's shown strong work ethic, kills penalties, comes back on defense well enough. I don't think that's what gets you excited about his game, like it does for Caleb D'Noyer, like it does for Anton Frundel.

But I think he's good enough in that area that I think he could be a center of the NHL. Even though that being said, you know, when he's gone to play on major, international teams, like for Team Canada, for example, with the HALNC, he was a winger, for the CHL and TDP team, he was a winger. So it's a little bit in the back of my mind that he may not completely be a center, but even if he is it, I still think he's a heck of a hockey player. You mentioned Denoye and Frondell there. You did not mention James Hagen's, who was at one time

seemed to be the number one guy in this class. He's seen his production, you know, level off a little bit at Boston College. I thought he was good at the world juniors. How do you kind of explain where Hagan's stock is at right now in the NHL? still pretty high. I mean, dynamic player. And I think he's going to get picked apart a little bit because his season hasn't been off the charts, great productive. But, you know,

he hasn't done what's an infantile and Max Celebrini did. But he's not too dissimilar to a year from what many, Baneers, and particularly, I think Ken Johnson be the most analogous player to him. You know, he's a way different skater and Kent Johnson's way bigger, but they're just offense-driven players.

And Kent Johnson was about a point per game in Michigan. draft year. As a late birth, same situation that Hagen says at right now. BC is a great, great team. So you always have to keep that in context. So they had not like they have a team full of stars,

but they have other options that they can go to around other than just him. So I, you know, you keep that into, you know, in context of this production. But, you know,

it hasn't been in an outstanding year. So now you're like, okay, he's a 510, 511 forward. The offense hasn't been incredible this season. season and that to me at least puts them into a range now where you start having conversations about him versus other guys and when you talk about him versus Misa, him versus Frondell,

him versus Denaulte, I'm finding a lot of those conversations with teams that if they think it's close, they're going to go to the bigger guy, they're going to go to the guy, they're more confident, is going to be an NHL center. You know, you start hearing the name Clayton Keller a lot. Honestly, when I hear Hagan's name come up, although I think there are some who think he could be Logan Cooley, which I completely buy as well. So I think that's kind of where he is. Like I wouldn't be shocked still if he went two. I think there are still major supporters of him in the league. And he is an outstanding dynamic player, probably the most purely talented

offensive player in this draft. But I don't think he's been as convincing as somewhat hope. And it's opened the door for other candidates to go ahead of him. And you have Deno Ye ahead ahead of him on this current list. The guy who I'm interested in those frontel because he's, he was a guy we were talking about in this range early in the year. And then it was a slow start for him. And you didn't know what that was going to mean. He's not on the world junior team. All the sudden, though, Frundel is red hot.

His all Svenskine numbers are ahead of where David Pasternak and William Neelander were. And oh, by the way, he's this competitive responsible center too. Like that seems like a really enticing package for teams. It is. And I really did debate elevating him into that next group, getting him over Marktown, giving him over Haken's getting him over a dinner, I thought about it. You know, this has really come over the last month. month, month and a half based on his just tearing the Ossfanskin.

I kind of put a pause on that. I just kind of want to see how his playoffs go with Yurgaard and how until U18 worlds could go, even though he may come into that tournament late if Yurrardin goes deep into the playoffs, which I think we all expect they will. But I can buy that argument. I think there is kind of an argument building in the NHL that this guy could go four, three, maybe even two, depending on just, I think the hockey sense is a minor debate. I'm not completely sold as hockey since is high end enough, like some of the other

candidates in that range. But the skill is really good. The shot's outstanding. His competes outstanding. He's a really physical, diligent player. And there's definitely a lot to like there. And I think he's got a really good case to go in the top five. And my guess is just based on how history tends to go, even if I don't have the players in these orders. Senators and D tend to go high And guys with size tend to go high So, you know, I would tend to guess that in the top five You're going to see

You're probably going to see Misa Good chance you're good to see Denoye or Frondell You know, I would guess three of those guys are going in the top five Just based on history And that, you know, one of Higgins or Martone Gets out of that range would just based on how history tends to go.

Do you think we'll see Frondell at the World U-18s? I mean, he's young enough to be eligible. Do you expect him to be at that event? I do if, you know, presuming he's healthy and like I said, but I think the offense game playoffs, I think has a small overlap with the 18th schedule. All right.

Something to watch for sure. One more thing in this class I wanted. Well, actually two more things. Let me go to the defense first. You have Deshaun Acheson is your second best defenseman in this draft, But there's a bubble. There has been a lift from some defensemen here that I think are all going to, we're going to start talking about in the top 10.

And that would be H.S. And obviously, Schaefer is at one. You got H.S. And you got Jaxon. You got Jackson Smith, who I really like when I've watched him. And you have Riddie Merca, who is a big 6-6 right-shot D with a little bit of offense to his game. These are things that we talk about in top 10 defensemen, too. How do you sort through the D picture at this point?

It's tight. And I think really it's tight up that you can really talk to anybody in the league. you're anybody in the rinks and they'll give you a different opinion on you know which one of those guys are better than better than the rest and who's second best D in this class is you know I think it's fair to say that the second best D in this class would have been like the sixth or seventh best D in last year's class

for what it's worth just based on how good that D class was but you know some like Acheson, some like Merca some like Smith as a second best D still a little bit of support for Logan Hansler although I think that's not really what's going to happen I think it's going to be one of those three that I mentioned before Merck because he's 6-6 and he can skate. He's nearly a point for game in the Western League.

And he's playing like 28 to 30 minutes a night for Seattle. And that team has completely turned around since he's gone in there. You know, Jackson Smith's got really dynamic tools. He's 6'3 and he can really skate. He can really handle the puck. He's got a little, you know, bite in his game. It's a very enticing package. And then Kishan H.

He's just kind of a crazy physical type of guy. but he's the rare type of player who plays that way, but is actually also good at hockey. He's going to hit like 25 goals this year as a defenseman. He had 40, 50 points in the underage. The previous season, he can run a power play. He lands explosive hits on guys. He fights.

There's just a lot there to like. Not as big as Smith or Murka, so I think that's the knock on him. He's like six, one, six one and a half. He is. He is. But how's that ultra-physical style going to go when he gets to the NHL? But I think there's a lot to like with all three of those guys.

But I also think, I think what would be interesting is you usually see two or three defensemen go in the top 10. But I don't know if I'm finding a lot of support that there's people agree that there are three defensemen in this draft that belong in the top 10 of a list. I think those six players you mentioned before, and I would say Roger McQueen, if healthy, are kind of seen as the top consensus group. And then it's kind of a mixture of players. And I would guess just based on history, you're looking at, you know, centers in D.

Jake O'Brien could be in there. Victor Ecclin is a small wing. Maybe he fits in there, maybe not because of the size and the position. But I'll be really interested to see if we get two. I think we get two, but I don't know if we get three defensemen in the top 10, which is usually how it goes. I bet you Smith ends up there because the profile of player that he is has recently, I think, outperformed its drafts. You look at a guy like Thomas Harley, who's a really popular player right now coming out of the Four Nations.

Not a perfect comparison, but I think there's some overlap there. Pavel Minchikov, another guy, I think had some of the same strengths and concerns. Smith might be a better skater than Minchikov at the same point in their careers. I just think those are players who are arrow-up players since the draft, and if you're going to take the chance on one of them, I think Smith is the profile of the guy you do it for, right? And he's got a really good shot to be there. Yeah. All right.

Where's the cliff, I think is my big question here, because every year there's a point where you go, okay, here's where the prospects you're really excited about are. I know you have an end of a tier after number 18, but I kind of wondered, was there any temptation to cut that tier at like 14? Because I feel like that's, there's a little bit of a cliff even within that tier. Yeah, I think that's fair.

I think in terms of the players, the league is the least. super, super excited about. It's, you know, it's, I would say six players deep. Shafing from Buesa, Haytigants, the Mardi, Martone, Frontel. And then, like I said, there's an asterisk on the queen, depending on his health.

I think those are the, those are the seven guys, the league is, you know, really, really excited about. And then, yes, I think there's a, there's going to be a drop to those defense that we just discussed. Eklund, Jacob, Brian. And I think that's kind of the next group, probably and then you kind of have Carter Bear in there maybe you have Justin Carbono in there maybe there maybe Ravensburg and yeah maybe

perspective on the player and whether you want a goal we are not fair just got injured hurt as Achilles he's going to be out you know Carbonos lighting up the queue but there are some hockey sense concerns there I think that's probably the top group I think there's some minority opinions that would get Brady Martin in there just because his compete like agent is just off the charts good. I do have a little bit more offense questions, but not significant there with him. But I would say you're talking about 14, 15, 16 players maximum that I think there's universal excitement about. And that's probably why you saw so many teams willing to trade first. Not all of

them were for this year, I suppose, but a lot of first run picks changed hands at this deadline. And I think that's got to be a big reason why. All right, let's take a break right there. We'll come back with a mailbag. All right, we're back. And let's get to the mailbag, Corey. Starting with with a good one from Jim. He wants the Barron Bull case for the top five Calder candidates. I'm going to limit that to four because I do think there's four real strong candidates, that being Macklin Celebrini, Dustin Wolf, Lane Hudson, and Matveh Michikoff. So we're looking for here basically the case four and the case against. We don't have to do a whole big thing. It's one question in a mailbag. But, you know, in a couple sentences. The case four, let's start with Macklin Celebrini. I guess it's

probably the obvious is that he just looks like the most impactful NHL player on a night-to-night basis every time I've seen him statistically really good and really looks the part shockingly mature for an 18-year-old. Yeah, I mean, he's an elite, even strength player as an 18-year-old. And we had this discussion often. Do you account for age in this conversation or is it just based purely on what they've done this season? So let's just take age out of it just for a moment with.

with Macle, even though what he's doing is just incredible for an 18-year-old. He's a dominant, even strength player. Just everything about his game stands out. The pace he plays with, the energy he plays with the skill he plays with. He's clearly the shark's best player. Just one of the best young players in the league right now. And for me, he's run away with this. If the voters don't give him the calls or they've screwed up.

Like, he's, I don't even see the argument against him quite. frankly. I don't either, but I think what it would be, since we're asked to make one, is just purely he is not leading rookies and points. And that's narrow. I think Hudson has him by one point right now. Yeah, with 10 games on hand. And he has like, what, 15 more goals in him or something like that.

I know 4 versus D and stuff like that. But like, like, I think the more fascinating argument for me is who's two, because it's probably going to be Hudson versus Mitchcove. Maybe Wolf gets in there, but just knowing how Wolf is. I think we're in that mix. I think, I just think knowing how voters tend to vote, they will,

whether Wolf deserves to be the second or not and the whole other conversation, but I just think voters will probably vote for the skaters. And it's going to be funny because of obviously Mitchcoff and Montreal is a sensitive topic. And then obviously you have Montreal with Hudson in that conversation. I think that will be fascinating to see where, where that one goes.

But I would guess, and people can brace them to those. I think Hudson probably should be the number two. rookie. I think what it's all said. And Judge just based on the minutes he's played, you know, the difference between the value of a really good D versus a really good winger. I think,

you know, the case for him, obviously, is everything I just said right there. The case against him probably is just the, you know, the defense. It's not really a good defender right now in the NHL, but he's probably one of the worst defenders in the NHL, but he's also probably

one of the top five to six best offensive defensemen. in the NHL right now. And that's been really, you know, impressive. And I think, you know, he's playing big minutes. They're winning games. They're kind of in the periphery of a playoff race, although, you know, he's been a big reason why.

Mietchkov, you watch him and everything you usually see. Elite stick, elite brain, generates offense, great on the power play. It's fair to say he's had more bumps this year than Hudson's head. You know, he's tested his coach's patience more than Hudson has. And I would say, you know, future-wise, you know, he's younger, skills off the charts. I think he'll be the better player. But that's not what this award is about. Who had the better year?

And I think Hudson's had the better year. Let me make the case for Wolf here for you at number two. I think it's close. I think to me, right, if I was voting right now, I'd be really debating between Wolf and Hudson for number two. Hudson is the number eight defense scorer in the NHL, which is outstanding. Wolf is the number seven and save percentage in the NHL. And I would argue that he doesn't have the same give back defensively, right? If you're talking points for a defenseman, there's still the question of, okay, well, what about defensively?

You're just talking straight up safe percentage for the goal. Yeah, there's a team consideration there. Calgary's not a team that I'm willing to say, oh, he's benefiting from that great Calgary Flames structure in front of him. So I would say if they're both relatively comparable in their position statistically there, points and save percentage, you go wolf because there's not that like, yeah, but what's he doing the other end of the ice question. I know he's literally not scoring goals, but you're not, that's not what you ask of a goalie. I understand that. I think you also, you know, anytime you look at goalies, it's a balancing act, like, just because he's performed very well,

but goalie performs can be erratic. And I feel like with, when, when it comes to voting for goalies for the calder and voting goalies for, uh, for the heart, you want the performers not to just be in the conversation. You want them to be, you know, head and heat. And he, Heels above competition, I think. And I feel like in this case, he's not there. I could buy it with him versus Michikov just because of the position. But that's why for me, I probably would end up putting him four on a ballot. I'm not voting.

So by the way, so nobody should care what my ballot is. But that would be the way I would have it. All right. Next one is from Patrick McConnell. He wants to know where Matthew Schaefer would fit in on a U-23 list. And you just did a U-23 list. So I guess we can kind of reference that a little bit. but do you have an initial thought here?

I know it's, it's early and it's, you know, he's so much younger than some of the guys that'll be on that list. Maybe it's complicated, but. Yeah, I mean, it is complicated because probably the order I would have it, maybe the order you would have it or somebody else would have. And then the order I had was little Q's than Z-Boy, which already has kind of kind of a look at a look at this year ago. I'm sure some people would majorly push back against that.

but that's the way I have it. And then I would have Sam Dickinson. And then I think it was, I think some combination of Owen Power and already left Shunov. And in terms of Schaefer, I would probably have him right around where I have C. Boyum. So he'd be after Luke Hughes, but him versus Boyum would be a conversation for me. I probably would lean Boyham, but I could see myself leaning Schaefer too. but he'd be, you know, right at the top. You know, he's either the, you know, the second or the third D, I think, in that group.

With Boyan being a little more dynamic, but Schaefer, maybe you project more stops defensively. Right, you know, it's, you know, it's Quinn Hughes versus Hayskinin in terms of the type of players. Yeah. All right. Next one's from Nabil Raymond. A lot of talk of how this is a below average draft, but is it still one of the better center groups of recent years when you think about Misa, Denoye Haygens, Jake O'Brien, Roger McQueen, Frondell, Brady Martin. He says they could all go top 12.

We'll see if that's the case. But certainly they've all got a good chance to go top like 16. I think that's really fair. I think you start asking minor questions is Hagan's for sure. Asender, I just talked about earlier, is Misa for sure. A center. Frondell hasn't even played consistent center this season. But I think, yeah, well, he's injured and, you know, there's all those issues.

So all that in the background, to answer the guy's question, yes, it's a very nice center group. It's just a really, really poor defense group. And even the top centers, you know, I would not, even though I love Michael Misa, I love James Higgins, I love Dinoje and Frontel, I don't know if any of them rise to the special level. They're not Celebrini. They're not Fadar. They're not even, I think, Leo Carlson or Adam Fantilli. So that would be my pushback there. All right. Next one's from Corey Oliver. If the Ottawa senators enter the 2025 draft with the 19th overall pick, would you advise them to surrender it and keep

the 2026 pick? Remember, they have to forfeit one dating back to the Dodanov Piasco or roll the dice. This kind of goes back to what we were just talking about on, where that cliff is, right? And if they have the 19th pick, you're not that excited about anyone at 19 this year. I know, but I think trying to project the draft a year from now is usually really difficult. Like, you have an idea of roughly what it looks like, but you don't have a really good idea.

And I think there's two other considerations. One, you'd always rather have a dollar today than a dollar tomorrow. You'd rather get the prospect now, get the development clock running. And then two, if you are Ottawa, this is always a dangerous game. But you have to hope, believe a little bit that your team is improving. They seem like they're a team on the upward trajectory. And they seem like a team that could potentially be picking in the 20s next season. I'm not saying they will be.

They may not. This may go, it could be like Buffalo where they kind of look, they go up and then they come down again and then it's a disaster. But I think you're, I almost kind of feel like if you do that, you are, it's kind of like a middle finger from the management kind of thing.

We don't really believe in this team. So I would almost kind of, I would keep the pick this season. I don't, I don't agree because I think whichever way it goes for them next year, I would, I would want to have the 2026 pick. Because,

A, I don't think the 2025 class, around 19 is anything that's that inspiring. Yes, somebody from your top 14 or 15 could certainly fall there. And maybe you start to feel a little bit of regret. I don't know exactly what date. They have to announce what their decision is on this one. I think it's like right before they pick.

But, okay. So A, either you're going to forfeit the pick now and you could, certainly Ottawa could miss the playoffs next year. I don't think, you know, I don't see a reason that they're going to go downhill. I think there should be a team that's trending up, but it's certainly possible. anytime you're one of those wild cards, it's possible. Or B, you're going to go up and you're going to want to trade that pick.

And I get you could always trade the prospect you take at 19, but there's a perfectly good chance at the prospect or pick or whatever at 23 ends up more valuable than this year's 19th prospect. So I would forfeit this year's pick if I was Ottawa. Last one is from Puck Nation, who wants to know what the best route for Michael Meese's development would be following being drafted. Obviously, two points per game right now in the OHL. That's a tough one to send him back.

to now he does at least have the avenue if he wanted to go to college but there's also going to be a case he's a bigger kid could you play in the NHL next year what's the best for him yeah i think this question comes from the context that some people would like to see like him people like port martin people like matt Schaefer go to college hockey next season although you know i think these conversations have stem from you know the ncdbill rule changes CHL players can come as we get closer to the summer and when these decisions are starting to have to get made The sense I'm getting in the league is there is not this anticipation that a large number of these high-end talents are going to be in college next year. And for one big reason, they're going to want to sign.

Because there is some, you can go to development camps now on rookie camps and on a PTO and go play college hockey. But you can't sign the contract and go play an NHL game or two at the start of the year and then go play college hockey. And I think Michael Mies is probably looking himself seeing I dominated the OHL this year. anybody who had the numbers I've had plays in the NHL the following year. So I'm sure he's thinking to himself why can't I play in the NHL next year?

So I would be really surprised that he's, I think anyone has to consider all their options, but I'd be really, you know, at least, they're not really, a little taken aback if he actually went to college hockey next season. I think Martone,

even Martone, I think he's been so good this year. He could at least, you know, Matthew Kachuk had skating issues. He jumps into the NHL Maybe, you know, Martone could do that. You know, guys are going to want to get paid. Although, I guess there's some new money. I don't think there's much in hockey, though, mind you.

But yeah, I think Misa's best course is to probably play pro hockey next season in the NHL, even though it could go poorly. Like, maybe he's just not ready. There's always that chance. I don't think he's so clearly ready. There's no way he's not a good NHL player next year. but I think he can be a useful top nine forward for a team next season. That's going to do it for us.

Thanks for listening to this episode of the Fetakki Show Prospect series. We'll talk to you soon.