The Athletic Hockey Show - Can the Caps maximize Ovi’s production?

Episode Date: October 8, 2026

Max Bultman, Sean Gentille, and Shayna Goldman break down Alex Ovechkin’s Capitals winning his final home opener against Sidney Crosby’s Penguins and discuss how Caps head coach Spencer Carbery can maximize Ovi’s production throughout the season. Plus, thoughts on Oilers-Ducks, Stu Skinner’s nice start for the Jets, McKenna vs. Marner tonight when the Maple Leafs visit the Golden Knights, and more. And, to close things out, Harman Dayal joins the show to talk about the seven NHL players who could make or break their team’s season.This episode was recorded live at 3:00pm ET on October 8, 2026.Hosts: Max Bultman & Sean GentilleWith: Shayna GoldmanExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Jeff DometWatch full episodes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowSubscribe to The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show. Hey, everybody. Welcome to another live episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. I'm Max Goldman here in Detroit with Sean Gentilly in Pittsburgh and Chana Goldman in New York. We got a busy show coming. Harmon Dyle's going to stop by later to discuss seven players who could make or break their team season. A great piece he did that you can read on the athletic today. But, Sean, I want to start with you and with Washington because you have spent this week in the nation's capital.

what became a very busy week in the nation's capital. Alexander Ovechkin announcing that this is his last season. I don't think we're surprised that it's his last season. I am a little surprised he announced it and announced it this early. What was the reaction to that in D.C.? Yeah, you guys almost got Sean Gentilly live from the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Or from a rental car office. Yeah, just back from D.C.

minutes before we hit record on this show. He was a narrow escape. here's what I'll say and I think we touch on this Mac and Dew and Frankie and I I was in D.C. for reasons unrelated. Like I was pretty psyched to go right about

or do some reporting on Pierluck Tobah and Ilya Proto and other things going around that team other than Alex Oveskin. But the tweet of the news dropped literally while Barry's Verluga our colleague and I were hanging out and watching practice. Like Spencer Carverie was, you know,

working the whiteboard with Alex Oveskin and the rest of the players surrounding him. And it's like, all right. They just announced that he's done after the season. So that was, it was wild timing. I don't think from the conversations I had with Chris Patrick

and some other people around that team. Like, of course it wasn't unexpected. You know, like I think there was, plenty of reasons to assume that this was going to be it for him. I think the amount of time it took him to decide to come back for this season in the first place was a pretty good indicator. In the timing of it, yeah, it was, you know, he felt it necessary to inform the team beforehand, right? And his teammates and whatever else.

So it sets up this scenario now where we get the full season goodbye. We get the entire, you know, 82 games, you know, that are left on the schedule after this announcement to, you know, fett him and criticize him and do as we plays with him. So, yeah, the timing, the timing was interesting and it was certainly unexpected to, you know, for it to come down specifically on that day. It sets up this great moment where his sons kind of get to introduce him for the last time at home. and that's all well and good. He plays 14 minutes less than nine at five on five in that game, Sean. Second fewest five on five minutes on the team. I think Dylan McElroth had more five on five ice time than Alex Lerichkin last night.

There were three legit shocking moments in terms of his ice time, you know, and in terms of his deployment. And actually, the two of you guys should vote on which of these three was the craziest. we had him drop like it was a drop pass in the in the low slot basically that from him to nobody

like I don't know how many times he's passed up a shot there over the course of his career it's certainly it's certainly you know but it's between it's between one and 15 let's say and he was not out there for the back half of a five on three and then he was also not out there with an empty net with two with I don't go in a two goal lead for like three minutes he was

stapled to the bench so I think that's indicative of a couple things but the most important one and the most relevant one as relates to the capitals is you know how spencer carbary is going to use him moving moving forward like what we saw last year was still full on trying to maximize whatever's left of alexovetchkin we he didn't get a defensive zone start until the 72nd game of the season or whatever it was, you know, on and on and on. You know, there's, he's, he's, he's going to, he's going to play less. He's going to see less power play time.

That is an absolute necessity based on the state of his game at this point. And the capitals are going to be a better team for it. And I, I think it's clear that there was, that there was some kind of organizational decision that was made, you know, over the last little bit that, like, we're not playing around anymore. This is a team that's capable of winning, you know, know, one, two, three rounds of playoff games come, come spring. And we're going to figure out what we have in the Alex tucks and the Pierlu, like that,

that combination, the Dubois-Wil-Wilson tuck line, they need to figure out what they have in those guys. They need to figure out how Jordan Kairu meshes with the proteases. They need to, you know, figure out what their power play looks like without Alex Oveskin, just stationary in the left circle, right? And I think, you know, it was a good reminder last night on national television in the United States of what that could look like. Yeah. Well, so, Sean, you mentioned the five on three.

That's the most surprising to me because that's the, you know, yeah, he can't move very well. He wasn't going to have to move on that one. But what I think it tells you, Shana, is that the Washington capitals, like, yes, they're glad to have Alex Ovechkin, you know, still obviously he's an icon. He's the greatest player in franchise history, one of the greatest in NHL history. But they had already operated. And Brian Searock from New York puts this up here. right? They had already operated in a way that was like they're, they're gearing up for post-Ovechkin anyway. And what this now becomes is a little bit of a transition there where, yeah, you don't

have to have them out there every time you're used to see an Alex Ovechkin on the ice. You can spread this load around a little bit. And it might even help keep him a little fresher, I guess, right? Yeah, because if you look at the last, like their last playoff run, what hurt them, their foot speed. They look like their aging core looked old. John Carlson, when he didn't have Farivari after he got injured, looked old. You saw he lost his step. Alex Ovechkin looked old.

It looked like he didn't have the gas to play a full 82 game season. So, you know, those are adjustments we see. Like, Corey Perry at this point in his career, he's a 16 game player at the end of the year. You have to manage his ice time accordingly and he plays on fourth lines as a result. Ovechkin, it's a completely different role.

He's not a fourth line grinder. He's not going to get that same usage. But if you build up your team the way the capitals did, to have this transition year, to see who can do what and have this deep approach. And we talk about it all the time, like Star Power versus Depth. If you're going to pull it off any year, you know, you're doing it on the heels of the Carolina Hurricanes winning in Stanley Cup. It's not the worst idea.

And you have enough up-and-coming talent plus right now guys, Kyru, Tuck. Those are your right now guys with Tom Wilson with Dubois. But you also have both Portis Brothers coming in and playing top nine roles to see who, which of them can jump up the lineup and run. Ryan Leonard, what's he going to look like? You know, it teased it all up pretty perfectly. And I think the most important part here is the Capitol's coaching staff understands that. How many times do we see it where coaches or teams, they still want that guy to be the centerpiece and it's the later stages of their career and it just isn't working anymore.

They know what isn't working. They know how to maximize them. And they're very willing to figure it out on the fly so they know all of their options, preserve his game as best as possible and also make sure everything else around him is clicking. Definitely. Yeah. And it's, and I, whatever, I was there for three days. I heard Spencer Carberry talk about, about line deployments and all that stuff

plenty of times and asked them plenty of questions about it. You know, there is a desire to get Pierlupe d'Bois line more offensive zone starts. Like that was, you know, when the Dubois-Wilson line was clicking the season before last, you know, that those guys are eating tuffs every single night, right? And there's there's a balance or a desire for a. balance there now where, you know, they're trying to maximize DuBois's 200 foot efficiency, right? But also recognizing the fact that him and Alex Tuck and Tom Wilson are the guys that they need to produce because that is going to continue being the issue for the Washington

Capitals is like for as deep as they are, we can't say for certain that the guys at the top of the lineup, you know, have the juice necessary to make them a top three, top five team in the league. And they're going to find that out. And part of that, and I think we saw that, yesterday we saw the Dubois line start in the offensive zone a couple of times we saw him you know get put in more favorable positions and they're doing that very deliberately and in very thoughtfully right but the the flip side if you're the caps is that you run the risk of playing Alex tuck and Tom Wilson in Pierluc Dubois you know 19 minutes a game 20 minutes in game right because those guys are those guys are prime five on five pieces they're important penalty killers

You're trying to incorporate them more on the power play. And also, if you have Alex Ovescun playing, you know, whatever, 13 minutes a night now, you were just automatically, by definition, going to rely on those guys more. And that sounds good because they're your best players, but also the end result, to some extent, is you're asking, you know, quite a bit of them. And I think that's something to watch for that team moving forward. They sure looked up to the task last night. They were incredible.

They were unbelievable. I mean, this is the look of a line that you see going. into the playoffs and you go, oh shit, what are we going to do with these guys? There was, there was a, there was a point in the third period and I, and shame on me for not knowing what the, what the final number was, but the Dubois line had an, had an 80% expected bullshare against the Crosby line and had outscore them three, three to nothing. Like, like that was, that was, that was a nuke job by, by those guys on the Pittsburgh penguins.

And they weren't doing it against Blake Lazott or, you know, or, or, or, or, or, or, or, or Connor Dewar or players like that. They were doing it against Sadie Krosby. And I think that's a pretty good indicator of where things, you know, the potential that they have, you know, for the rest of the season. They can, we know they can check. They can shut down top players. That goes without saying.

But the way that they played last night, and look, these are big boys, right? We knew they were going to be able to play heavy. Wilson and Dubois feeding each other below the goal line to the slot passes for easy looking goals is that that's the kind of stuff that I think the Washington Capitals are going to be thrilled to see in early October hockey, that that is already very much built into the identity of that line, the physicality it can bring. The Strom line, I think, is an interesting one of like what kind

of complement that that line ultimately can be, because really the other, the third line, the protest line is also an extremely heavy line. And we'll see just how they're able to kind of find offense, if they're able to kind of find the speed element that they will need for that. But it's really, it's finding out how to maximize the strome line that I think will determine the ceiling of this capital. The floor is incredibly high. Absolutely. And, you know, that's, again, that goes back to Ovescken. You know, what can they get from him and how do they need to deploy him to get it? And I think that's been a question that Spencer Carberry has done a pretty incredible job of answering, you know, in a positive way for this team over the last couple years. But things change. Things continue to change. The mix is different. The roster is different. The capability of the players at the top of the lineup is different. And also Alex Oveskins 41 now versus 40. we did see like a pretty serious drop off in his overall effectiveness from 39 to 40. And now it seems like from 40 to 41.

So, yeah, they're a fascinating team. And, you know, it's a team that, you know, if things slot in the right way, depending on moves that may or may or may not be made moving forward, I mean, I think you could argue pretty convincingly that this is a top two or top three team in the conference. Should be. Right? Like, it would be pretty disappointing after all of this. But like, it's funny.

And then Pierre-Lucbaal just get hurt. He'll just get hurt again in a week. Like he did last year. That nuked their season. So whatever. I don't think that trade gets enough hype for, it really was a win-win for both sides because the Kings needed the goaltending and they've gotten some quality goaltending from Kemper. Like, not as much last year the year before they did.

But Dubois has been so important for them. Yeah, sort of stepped up and that was huge. But Dubois has been such an important part. But it's funny because you're talking about the. the Ovechkin line, the whole time I'm thinking is, I could see Alexi Proto's jumping back up with Wilson and Dubois, who he's played with before and looks good, and that line can cook. I could see Kairu jumping up there because there's enough defensive impact to, you know, not worry about what he's missing, that he can just compliment them and bring a little bit more

Russian speed to that. The Ovechkin line is the one line that I'm going, if you decide Ryan Leonard's not the guy, and the trick for Ryan Leonard is going to be making sure he doesn't defer to Ovechkin too much. As the younger guy on here, and I think if he was a rookie, maybe there would be more pressure to do that, like knowing this is his final season. But it's like, who do you put on that line if something doesn't work? And that's going to be maybe the toughest part of it. Because I think first and third, you can just keep mixing and matching and it'll be fine.

Yeah. And one more point maybe on the caps before we move on. Like, you know, Shannon, you mentioned Ryan Leonard. He was on the sort of line yesterday. This is after that he, after starting on the Elveskin Strom line. And Carberry very firmly and very, very. vehemently and very understandly, it was like, this is not a demotion, uh, saying, and I'm, I'm paraphrasing to some extent here, but like he needs to know,

he needs to learn how to play a tough defensive minutes and he's not going to get those with, with, with, with, with, with, with the, with Eskian strongline. He is going to get those with, on, on, on the bottom six with sort of and, and, and, and, and, and, and whoever else is, is, sort of in in Boon, in Boon Jenner. Like, that's an indicator of how they think about Ryan Leonard in the role that they have, him slotted in moving forward, is that, like, he's not a guy that's going to get the cherry pick minutes, right? Like he's a guy they want to play in Tufts immediately. And I think this is part of the process for him.

It's what I like about this Capitol's organization and how they've handled the last two to three years is they, I think, as well as any organization in the league, are managing how they're developing and building for the future while still trying to get as much as they can out of right now. And that Leonard, I think anecdote speaks to that. I want to go to one of the other games last night, Shane. and that was Edmonton and the Anaheim Ducks. And the Anaheim Ducks jump out to a 2-0 lead,

a couple Beckett-Seneca goals right at the doorstep. We will come back to him. But we got to go to the Oilers here to start because after going down 2-0 in the first period, it's a five-goal second and they win it by a 5-2 final. This is for me, a tough team to wrap my mind around. It's another great start from Devin Levi for the Oilers, who's now had a couple of those in a row.

What are you seeing right now out of the Oilers? Well, the first period, it starts and you're like, oh, so we're picking up right where that playoff series left off. Like the ducks are out skating on. They look faster. They look more dynamic. And the oilers when the top guys aren't on the ice, it is so noticeable. And then those goals against, that penalty kill, those first period penalty kills were

terrible. Oh my God. That penalty kills like a serious problem. But then the way they outscore their problems without things spiraling out of control, I think was really important because we saw them against the Canucks where it's like, you have to race to outscore your problems. but like along the way, it's not like you're just allowing the goals pile up and now you're just going to pour him back on. Like, it's back and forth and there's mistakes galore. Like, it felt different.

It felt like they like really locked in. And obviously, the big guns are a huge reason why that Joyce Idol pass to set up Poddolzin, who's been phenomenal so far this season, it is huge. And I feel like Pod Colson is such a good example of like he's a big reason why everything's working, right? Like, obviously Bouchard and we'll get there. But those are the types of players, I feel like Edmonton should be targeting this whole time of like they fell out of favor, the reclamation projects. Look at how it's worked for Pittsburgh. Look at how it's worked for Washington.

We're talking about both teams here. That worked so well for Edmonton. And yet everything they've done since adding him, they're like, let's go against that strategy and just find slower guys for the bottom six where if you have injuries and now they have a couple, you go, where is the death? So it's a risky play because they are top loading this lineup a ton, but at least that top-loaded bunch is doing a lot of the heavy lifting and help them turn things around. And it also helped Devin Levi settle in and give them, I think, really good net minding through two

periods. Evan Bouchard has 11 points in his first four games, Sean. Look, we're going to have the Bouchard debates, I think, until the end of time. Was it Pronger last year who was like banging the table for Bouchard? I can either confirm nor do I. Around, around, I think it was. I think we had them on the show. And that was kind of a wake-up call for me that like if guys like Pronger are endorsing.

But it is like Bouchard's start has like been tailor made to ignite every debate around him. Absolutely. And I feel like, Chana, you can speak to this too. I feel like I feel like water found its level to some extent with a discourse around him coming into coming into this season. It's like, okay, he's, you know, he's good at what he's good at and he's bad at what he's bad at. column A outweighs column B. Like we like we need to just accept that this is who he is, you know,

as a player, right? But, um, if he keeps this up, you know, we got to reset that because finding that level of productivity and,

and, and, and maybe with some added, you know, five on five substance that, that would change, you know, the,

the public perception of him because there'd be more good stuff and less bad stuff, right? So yeah, it's, um, it's a it's a discussion that we're they were guaranteed to keep on having and he's you know I still think to a very real extent you know he's he's the right guy on the on the right team for

whatever the orler's problems are I think he's he's not on the list yeah and then the list has often started in goal and Levi might be somewhat of an answer to that here I mean it's very early we're three games in but two pretty strong starts in a row now here I'm just curious how long Levi can keep this up. What kind of workload? Oh, yeah. The evidence nor one has figured out their goal attending. No, no. No one's saying that. Maybe maybe if they play capable defense in front of him.

And it's going to be interesting because so much of that relies on Bouchard. Like, I'm so excited about the whole Bouchard start. Like that is Sean, you brought it up. Like I was going to do a player to your follow up on the most controversial players. And I start going through the list and I'm like, it's Adam Fox and no one else because Bouchard, everyone

literally just accepted this is who he is. And so now that's my next story. Like, what is have to do to get Norris consideration? Like, how does he have to keep this up? And what does he have to do defensively? And we're seeing him out at score opponents 11 to 1 in his 5-on-5 minutes because we're not seeing as many of these, like, glaring defensive mistakes from him. That's going to help Levi. Because half of the problem with the goaltending is, mine is Trish and Jari, okay, like, take him out of the conversation because he also was just a bad goaltender in that, like, but in front of two-skinned or others would also like to take him out of the conversation. Well, great work

Sam Bowman, but like with every other goalie, it's like, you can't even give them a chance to succeed because there's so many defensive breakdowns in front of them. And part of it's the defensive coaching over the years and the stubbornness that they've had with all of that. I don't know if DJ Smith is necessarily the answer. I haven't, I think his systems have been a little bit too old school, but we'll see what happens here. It's, can the defense keep it up? Because if they can, I think, and be at least average, Levi has a chance. If it's what we saw in those Vancouver games or what we saw in that first period against the ducks, he screwed because even the greatest goalies are going to struggle eventually against that.

We're talking like a handful of goalies who can handle it on the nightly basis. You saw what Sorokin did. And then he eventually just crash out because it's hard to contain that or Shasturkin over the years. Levi isn't that. He doesn't have that track record. So do I think he can do it behind the Oilers defense we know? No. But if the Oilers can be somewhat capable, that is all I am asking for.

In the playoffs, that's all they need it. somewhat capable because it felt like last year they had the momentum, it gets into round one and everything's off the table, then I think Levi at least could give them quality starts on a nightly basis. And he also really helps the Freddie Anderson of it all, right? Because if you have Levi playing the way he's played, you can rely on Anderson so, so, so much less whenever he's back in the lineup. And that's been an issue for him over the last couple years with Carolina is,

you know, is availability in staying in the lineup. But if you have a legit 1B with him, you know, and again, we're throwing Tris and Jari like off in the distance. And just assuming that this is going to be Freddie and Levi moving forward, but that seems like that's what the mix is going to be. And I think, I think a Devon Levi that looks 85% of the way he's looked so far this season makes Freddie Anderson a lot better as well. Well, as you guys to be the coach. Sorry. Basically, like the goalie coach in a sense. Like, I feel like his presence there to work with Levi could.

legitimately be a difference maker because if anyone has had the ups and downs and been drag through it is Frederick Anderson. So like I feel like that could be so perfect. But if they're going to attempt the three goalie thing when he gets healthy, that's where you could see everything off the rails too. As you guys talk about Johnny, we're not going to be able to spend much time today on Jets' abs. But Stuart Skinner, another great start. He's off to a tremendous one. Stu for Vesna, baby. Come on. He looks great. Saves are great. Mask was even better. Like, honestly, there was a sequence where he makes two saves. And the way he, the way he, He moves, and I'm like, that's it.

That's it right there. And it's not like the Jets are going to be a defensive ace. I feel like in front of him. Those days kind of feel over. And if Morrissey's hurt, but like, he looked great last night. You can't help him get excited over that. Very likable player. All right, we got to take a quick break right there.

We will be right back. All right, let's get into tonight's games here. And before we do, Scott Wheeler's going to have an article or a video coming on the YouTube channel tomorrow. And it's going to be about has Gavin McKenna arrived. And I think a big part of whether people are ready to buy that Gavin McKenna has arrived is going to be how he fares against old Toronto Maple Leaf's friend Mitch Marner in Vegas on Thursday night.

It's the old. It's the new. There's a lot of juice to this one, Sean, even for October 8th, even though it's in Vegas. It'd be more fun if it was in Toronto. What other games are on tonight that I could watch instead? No, I think it's the only late game. I think you're stuck. You got to stack up all the sevens and then you can just cook for the late games.

You can watch football, I guess. So me and Dommer are working on the first power rankings of the season for tomorrow. morning. I think I might be busy from 10 to 1. I might be writing my part. I'm not going to want to work through that. Come on. Yeah, God knows. He's not doing anything in that window. I think this is an underrated. I shouldn't say underrated. That's that's that's probably not correct. Is anything underrated in Toronto? Come on. No. No. We're going to how we're going to get this twice a year for the next. for the foreseeable future, right?

Where it's not just Lease versus Vegas. It's not just Mitch versus the Leafs. I feel like Gavin McKenna is, in a lot of ways, the spiritual successor of Mitchie. So that's the way this is going to be framed moving forward. And I must say, like,

I know I'm joking about not watching it, but I'm not going to be able to resist. Like the, I've been, I've been force, had a pro and anti-leu's propaganda for for so long, but I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna be able to stop myself. Yeah, this is,

this is a good one and it's a fun one for October 8th for sure. McKenna so far, I mean, I love the line he had that was someone asked him like, you know, do you have you had a welcome to Toronto moment yet? And he was like, yeah,

it's the media asking me about not having any points in three games, which is both like true, but I also think a very effective, like, way to diffuse that, right? Like, yeah, I know, guys. I'm aware. Like, I'm not, you're not in my head, but I know, like, I think that was like a good line by the young man.

I think he's got, he's got some juice on, on that level. Like, I think he, I think he knows what he's doing. I think there is, like, there's a certain ease that he's got. It seems like with, uh, with, with navigating that part of it. And we know that that's important in Toronto. Just ask Mitch, right? So, yeah, it'll be, uh, it'll be interesting to see how that, how that relationship continues to develop. Shane, it's a two and two start for the Leafs, right?

Zero goal differential. They are making it very hard to have the obvious. takes here. What are you seeing from the leaves? Four games in. It's very early. We have 80 games left. I keep like two extra games doesn't seem like it makes that big of a difference. But to be this far in and so we're like, oh, there's 80 games left. Is it a little bit of a mental, I don't know. It's different for me than it even is to just see that eight still in the start of the games remaining for me. Yeah, it's definitely throwing me a little. It's like there's good and bad, right? Because the power of it looks good. Austin Matthews looks good. You go, okay, those are very important

things. I still feel like there's such a clear delineation of like, this is the top six, this is the bottom six. So that's something that we've seen be an issue in the past. Like, are they too top heavy? Do they have enough scoring depth? And like, do they have too many fourth liners? But I think the McKenna line, I feel like it's so important that he's on PowerPlay 1. And you look at past first overall picks. And I think of Jack Hughes in Year 1, he didn't get a ton of Power Play 1 usage. And I feel like that did affect his season. Alex Laffernear did not. get power play one in year one. And I definitely think even just from a confidence standpoint. So the fact that he does score, yes, it's on the power play.

I think it's so important because that could give him a little more juice of five-on-five, which that line needs, I think. Natural Statue has him with like a 34% XG right now, which is a little concerning. They're outscored 3-0. But at the end of the day, I think you get one and that should help, you know, give him a clean slate in a sense to play to his strengths and have a little bit more confidence. So I think that's going to be really important here. But so far they're fine.

And I think the fact that they came back against Nashville, yes, we all project the Predators to be bad. But that kind of comeback win is very important in the early goings of the season just after what last season was. Like you don't want anything to spiral if you're Toronto. No, certainly not. That'll be an interesting one to watch. Another one tonight that to keep an eye on is the Flyers and the Sends.

And maybe not for quite the reasons that at least Philly fans would be hoping. Philly has surrendered 17 goals against already this season, guys. They have five goals, four and four games, 02 and 2 to start. the season. It somehow gets worse, right? Like, you hear 17 goals against and you're like, oh, goaltending must be horrible. At five on five, it's 922 so far through four games. It is a staggeringly badge on 26 percent expected goalshare for the Flyers to start this season. Look, we can go to the center well. I feel like that's kind of the obvious place to talk about them, especially you look at some of the talent they have on the wings here. I don't think I'm

alone in saying I expected a step back from Philly after last year, but this seemed more extreme than I would have drawn up. Yeah, and it started straight away when they lost by a touchdown of the Penguins in an opening night, right? And I know that that's however it's 10 days ago or however long it's been. But I think that, you know, the vibe coming out of that game, Tuckett wasn't displeased. And he's only gotten less pleased over the course of the last 10 days. Yeah, I do.

I think it starts with the center depth, but also, like that doesn't explain all of it, right? I think a lot of, a lot of what made them successful last year was Dan Vladar. And I think what we've seen has been, you know, a regression on his part, right? Like I, in all credit to him, he played well enough to earn a new contract,

but he's an NHL goaltender that doesn't have much of a track record of, of success. And I think what we're seeing now is he looks a little bit more like the Dan Vladar from, from Calgary versus what we saw from him last year. So rough goaltending and a pretty poor center death chart isn't a recipe for anything good. And I think they're experiencing that firsthand right now. I just lean more to the offensive side than even the goaltending.

And like I said, it's a 922 at 5 on 5 for them. I can't bury the goaltending totally for that. And 5 on 5 is not the only game state. I get that. The goals that you give up on the penalty kill count two. But I think that when you're at, what you're asking of your goalie, the main thing you're asking of him is keep us, keep us above water in five on five. And he's done that. So you got to find a way to create

some offense here. I mean, it's just, it's that simple. Five goals and four games, you have no chance to win scoring like that, Shana. Yeah. And like the offense was always a potential weak point because it threw their little Cinderella run, which at the end of the day, raises the bar higher, even though things like that shouldn't, in theory, take you off your trajectory and path. And it feels like the way they operate this offseason. They're like, we're still keeping the status quo of like what this journey was supposed to look like, even though they did make it to the playoffs sooner than expected, but it changes expectation. So it's like a balancing act of that.

But the offense was better in that Cinderella run until it wasn't. So that's what they always had to work on coming into the season. And that's why the defense is so important because if you lean too far defensive, sometimes that can suppress your team's offense. But in this case, they're the worst team on natural statrick in expected goals against. So you have to work that much harder to build up your offense and they've so much shut down talent and not a ton of dynamic offensive skill. Like, yes, we think Port-a-Marchone could be a great player and Michikov has a ton of potential. But they still, like if your defense, which is their foundation is going to struggle so much, it's going to make it that much harder to break out and break up the ice with control and start generating real chances.

And five-on-five is so much more important here because the power play sucks. Like there's no way around it. It was bad last year. It was horrible in the playoffs. and it was always a potential weak point coming into the season. And now I feel like that's going to get even more exposed because, you know, if they're not scoring 5 and 5, you're not scoring on the power play. Like, where are you going to do it?

Like, I feel like this team at this rate is like better off just trying to just score your goals shorthanded. Just have a great power kill and see if that can power you through these games because there's too much going wrong at the same time right now. Yeah. And I think we've seen it too from the way Tuckett has already, has already locked in on the line blender here. right?

Yes. Like I'm looking, I'm looking at their numbers on, at their time on ice numbers, on evolving hockey. Carl Grounds from Nolichari, Sean Cotterier, you know,

they've played, they're leading, uh, the Flyers lines in ice time with a little bit more than 21 minutes. Not a great sign when, when your fourth line is, is, uh,

is, is, is leading period, let alone by eight minutes. And then the, the, the next pair, the next trio is Devorak,

Mischcock-Kek-Kennekney. Then you have Kate's, Martone, four, Forrester. We know that Martone's playing with, uh, was most recently skating with Cateria. Like like he's, he's pushing buttons already. And after four games, I, I, you can't feel great about that. There's so many, like, even just listening to you read those, right? Like, you hear the winger names and you're like, those are like second, maybe in some cases,

potentially first line wingers. And the center just drags the feel of the line down to be like, oh, that's like a third line on a good team because of the center. Whereas if you had the right center there, like those wingers get you pretty excited. So. So it's the tired take, but it's the real take. Is it until the flyers fit the center? And that's why you try to pay, you know, a gazillion dollars a year for Leo Carlson. Yeah. It makes sense.

Yeah. The wild and the bolts, Shane. And these are two teams that probably we're not going to be able to really cast a judgment on until we know whether they're able to get out of the first round of the playoffs, right? Or I guess in the wild, not that they've done it, go a little farther than that. They have some midseason, we'll call them things that will make them interesting. But in a game like this, against two teams like this. I think we feel pretty good as, as playoff teams.

What do you look for in a matchup like that? For Tampa Bay, it's just, I want to see their offense be a little more high octane. And I think the power play is going to be important. Minnesota is a good power play. Tampa has not figured it out. And you keep seeing tweaks on that top unit. Now Hegel's off of it to try to get that going a little bit more.

And, you know, I just feel like they need to find some stamp coast replacement still. Like, they're still looking for that, that right-handed shot. And they tried it with Bjork strain. It's not working. You know, Hegel's left-handed, so they haven't kept them there. So I'd like to see Tampa amp things up a little bit more offensively.

I think at 5-on-5 it's important, but on the power play, too, like to know that they have that weapon. And against the wild, I think it benefits them that we, you know, the league's only getting younger and faster. And that's one thing that could hold Tampa Bay back. It feels like this is a good opponent for them in theory to amp things up because Minnesota is not very fast at all. And for the wild here, I think Walsheds playing really well, but it's the center depth. Like, I'm still legitimately worried about the center depth outside of Eric Zanek. And I think you're off getting, you know, more looks alongside Capri's office. Definitely a good thing.

I think he has more potential there than saying, let's throw Ryan Hartman and hope it sticks for the 600th time. But I just look at Minnesota and I am like left wanting more when I feel like there's so much potential to be a contender. But you could see the fact that they had a quieter offseason could really hurt them. Yeah, no doubt. One other game I wanted to just hit really quick. So the Sharks in the Blues, Celebrating is a game time decision. I think that's for most people, the intrigue here. But we did get a comment from one of our listeners earlier in the show about wanting to hear a little more blues talk here. And he's honest. He says, I get it. They're mid. But do we have something for our friend Allen here on the St. Louis Blues? What intrigues you about this team, that even if

we're, even if we're thinking they're going to slot in somewhere toward the middle, what are the interesting factors of this this year. And you probably need Robert Thomas to put a couple points on the board. He's got none through three games. It's all about, to me, it's all about Mick Michael and Mason McTavish. I think those are the X factors in that forward group. And we'll see how that works moving forward. Honestly, I think McTavish is just a fascinating player overall because we know what he's bad at.

we know why he doesn't play for the Anaheim ducks anymore. It was a foot speed defensive viability issue. But the offensive talent's there. And we'll see if the skating follows. I know he spent a lot of time in the offseason trying to get that under wraps. And I think the legs feed the wolf, right? I think it's not a shock that a guy who maybe has skating issues

has also been a pretty poor defensive performer over this, the first couple years of his NHL career. So, yeah, I'm always, I'm always paying attention to him because he's a, he's an interesting player profile type. And, you know, he's, he's the X factor for them. You mentioned Thomas. Like, can we talk about how interesting it is for him to go from a guy who seemed like was getting traded last February to being named the captain six months, eight months later,

six months later? It's all ridiculous. It's so ridiculous. The entire Thomas situation when it's like, he's in the right age range. He's really good. I get it. He's not your most. most dynamic number one center, but like he's a sick player.

And if you feel that he's... You were like, you were the leader of the Robert Thomas fan club. Yes, because the passing. Yeah, the passing is unbelievable. And he has a good shot when he chooses to use it. But he's surrounded by mid all of the time. And it's not his fault sometimes that his teammates can't finish his shot. It's like, you look at Thomas and Kairu both last season.

And that was like the clear thing that let them down. Like they're coming up with great passes and no one knows what to do with them. So I feel like that's more of a team building thing. And if you go into this thinking like, well, it's not the perfect building blocks to build around. And that's why, you know, you could consider trading him if you're St. Louis. At the end of the day, it's like if you get him some more high-end skill and we're, we've already talked about numerous teams here where it's Washington and all these other teams that are like maybe their forward group isn't perfect. But they have enough depth. If your number one forward isn't perfect.

Carolina, a perfect example of it with Ahor Jarvis. They're not going to stack up to the McKinnons and McDavid's of the world. it's all about who you surround them with. So if you feel that Thomas is not your perfect number one guy and you think he's just like average for the position, which, sure, then I'd like to see a little bit more pace and tempo get added around him. So it's not just Robert Thomas against the world sometimes offensively.

And it feels like they're trending in the right direction and they're making some solid moves. But, you know, like you see where this team has its flaws. That was an incredible comment from CJ Bear 71 in the chat. Robert Thomas is the reverse line. He might just be Larkin. Maybe he's just Larkin. He's one of the guys.

Right? But like he's at, we're having a similar discussion about him now as we were regarding Larkin a couple years ago. It's like can he be the one C best forward on a on a contending team? We got our answer as far as Larkin and Detroit's concerned and now look at where we are. So. But then you also say with Larkin and I'm just assuming this is just greasing the skids for, you know, a Robert Thomas trade request.

But it's funny because. To me, I come to a completely different conclusion about that, Sean. Like, like, there's a tier of guys who I would put as, like, Larkin, Robert Thomas, Ropei Hintz, Sebastian Aho, Joel Erickson, right? Like, all these guys are like ideal number two's. And in the right setting, they can be your number one. And I think people take that as like, oh, on a bad team, they'll be your number one. Well, Sebastian Aho just won the Stanley Cup as the number one center. And is he the top guy in that tier?

Yes, he is the top guy in that year. All you have to do is surround Robert Thomas with the Carolina Hurricanes level of support. That's it. That's all it is. And you'll be fine. It's easy. It's easy. Flip that switch.

Let's go get Harmon Dial here. Really excited to bring in Harmon, who wrote a great piece for the athletic today, why these seven NHL players could make or break their team season. Harmon, welcome to the show. We're not going to spoil the whole article here, but I do want to hit on a few of these names. And in particular, one of them jumped out to me right off the top. And it's Kent Johnson for the Columbus Blue Jackets, a guy who was a top five pick, a guy who has all the talent in the world and on a team that desperately needs a guy like this to pop. 100%. And Johnson's a really interesting player because to me, I remember watching him back in his draft year. And even though he was really skinny and you could tell that, okay, he's going to need to pack on some muscle and prove that at the NHL level that he's not going to be too easy to push to the perimeter, you could see the game breaking.

skill, the hands, the playmaking, the vision, and just that elite upside. And you look at Johnson's trajectory since he's entered the NHL, he's alternated between productive and underwhelming seasons. So in 2024, 25, when the Blue Jackets first sort of emerged as the surprise team that was contending for a playoff spot, it was largely on the back of, hey, this team's a lot more fun and dynamic offensively than anybody pictured. They're top 10 in the NHL and goal score per game. And it was Johnson who had around 57 points in 68 games, which is about a 70 point pace over an 84 game regular season. And you could see the puck carrying. He was responsible for their zone entries on the power play. And you could see it all starting to come together.

But then last year, the production completely crashes, only 22 points. And so did Columbus's offense as a whole, especially the last 20 games where they essentially played themselves out of a playoff spot, there were 29th in goal scored per game. So when you look at how Columbus gets back on track to hopefully get over the hump and make the playoffs this year, I'm really looking at that offense. And when I look at that top six group, to me, Kent Johnson is the X factor, the key to unlocking the ceiling version of that. It's also especially interesting to me because in the summer, Rick Bonas made it very clear

in an interview with our colleague here in Portsland that Johnson is going to get that opportunity to be the guy. He's going to get top line opportunity. He's going to get power play time, which is important because last year he only averaged around 13 minutes of ice time per game. He's apparently packed on a decent amount of muscle. And also, when you look at this new look top line with Fantilli, Nyes and Johnson, Johnson is also so important, I think stylistically as that transition guy, that setup guy.

Because when I look at Fantillion Nyes, both of them are ultra talented, big bodies, but both are shot first guys. They need somebody to set the table for them. Neither one is a natural playmaker. And so if you can get the best version of Johnson with the way that, again, he can transition, pox up the ice, draw defenders towards him, then I think it's not just, oh, Kent Johnson himself is going to have a breakout year. I think the ceiling for that Columbus top line as a whole, for Ventilly to have a breakout year, for Nyes to be the best best version of themselves, I think so much of that rests on Johnson's shoulders. So another, one that stood out and we talked a little bit about Vegas before and like the mariner of it

all but it's wild bill you have him in there and it feels like his return to the playoffs last year was such a reminder of how sick he is and how important he is to the lineup so like what what's your take on him this golden nights team is just a different beast when you can use carlson in that two C slot yeah the offense is definitely slowed down he's not somebody that you're going to look at to pop 30 goals anymore. But what he does defensively, he is still so elite in his own end as a shutdown presence, helping out on the penalty kill, elite on faceoffs. Just all the things that especially come playoff time matter when it comes to protecting

leads if you need them to match up against top competition. Just having that stabilizing, responsible presence. I even go back to the year Edmonton took care of them really easily. So not this past year, but the year before in the playoffs. Carlson was the only Golden Knights forward who held his own in his 5-on-5 minutes against McDavid and Drysettle. That's just the type of player that he is where even though he's maybe not as dynamic as he used to be as a goal score, he just still brings so much to the table as a two-way play driver.

And it's also really interesting looking at the playoffs splits where when Carlson and Marner played together at 5-on-5 in the playoffs, we're talking a dominant 65% of expected goals. The outscored opponent's 11 to 3. When Martin didn't have Carlson available, the XG dropped to about 54%, which is still pretty good, but then a minus 5 goal differential. So he's just such a important swing player, especially because if he, like the issue has obviously been injuries, right?

Only 14 games last year, only 53 the year prior. And when he's unavailable, you see it in the sense that they don't have a natural placement for him. where Tomas Hurtle, even though he can put up points and even though he's still such a sick weapon on their first unit power play, at five on five with the foot speed, he just, he can't drive play the way he wants used to. And I know he's got the name brand recognition, but Tomas Hurtle, if he's your two C as a contender, I don't think you're going to go very far.

And that's why at times last year, they had to shift Marner to playing the center ice position. And it's just he's the type of player that is just kind of irreplaceable for them. And it is part of a broader conversation with this Vegas team where it's not just Carlson, but even if you look at their higher profile players, guys that are starting to get up there in age and where we have the injury crush marks. Mark Stone, obviously, that's another player where the Golden Knights are a completely different team.

But even Shay Theodore, I know he was relatively healthy last year, played 70 games. But in years past, he's been in and out of lineup. And as soon as Shea Theodore is out of lineup, But that Blue Line really struggles to move the pox. So I think Carlson is part of a bigger group in Vegas where they need some of these vets to be healthy and as productive as possible if they want to go on another deep playoff run this year. Let's be real, though, the real X factor to Vegas's season is whichever other team star forces their way to Vegas sometime between now and now on March 6th. Danilla Yorov, Harmon, is on this list for the Minnesota Wild. And I think you're right.

He's playing on a line with Caprizz off, and it's a big task. It's a big jump in like what they're asking of him in responsibility. But this one's like almost double barrel because if Danila Urov does play pretty well here, all it's going to do is ramp up the, okay, so now will the Red Wings take him for Larkin? And can this transition into being Dylan Larkin as the annex factor for the Minnesota Wild? And is Yerov going to reach the level that the Red Wings would pull the trigger on that? I would love to see the delta between Danil Yorov being good enough. to satisfy the Minnesota Wild

as their solution down the middle, but also good enough to, but also still bad enough where they would maybe want to upgrade. Like that's such like a, that's such like a fine needle to the threat. It is a fine needle. Yorov is so interesting to me

because I liked him a lot as rookie last year. When I watched him play, yeah, the offense didn't necessarily pop. You still put up a respectable, I think, 27 points. But what really stood out to me is how smart he is, how responsibly he is defensively. And I know come playoff time, he kind of fell out of favor a little bit, had one or two high profile mistakes.

But watching him in the regular season, you can see this guy does not cheat the game. He is wise and mature beyond his years defensively. And I think that matters when you're talking about somebody that can play the center ice position. I also think when you're playing with Karel Kapriza, you don't need a center that's going to light the world on fire offensively. you need to guy. It's almost like feeling what Marco Rossi did for them before the Quinn Hughes trade, except they also didn't really trust Mark Ross in the playoffs. But like that, those two, two parts is can you be like a 50, 60 point guy if you're playing with Capriza full time? And then on top of that, just be trustworthy enough in the playoffs that you're not

going to get bumped down to a fourth line the way that Rossi did. And that's where the offensive pop is where I'm a little unsure on. The defensive side, again, I know he's rock solid there. offensively, does he have enough finishing ability? Is he going to, is he going to be able to provide enough of a spark so that teams can't just key in on Capriza? I'd be like, if we can take his time and space away, there's nobody else on this line that can really punish us. And I think watching him so far in the season, it does feel like, I don't know that he's ever going to be a flashy crater. But when he gets the park, he's a pretty quick skater. And he makes high percentage plays with the puck.

Like he sees the ice relatively well and he's never going to wow you, but I like that plays aren't just dying on his stick. So is that going to make him a viable top six center for the playoffs this year specifically? I think it's a lot to ask for. But I think there's a lot of potential with this player. And the importance for Minnesota for him to have an important year, whether it's to fill that internal void or whether it's, hey, He's showing that he has a lot more upside and therefore the scenario you mentioned where now he's a trade chip,

it would really help Minnesota if you can trend in the right direction kind of pop there. Also improve his face offs because he was 39% of the dot last year, which I think so far in preseason and the regular season, he has improved in that area. He's important, not just because of center ice position, but you look at how many secondary forwards they lost in the offseason. Zuccarello, Terrosenko, Johans. And all of a sudden, I'm looking at that forward group and going, it's very, very top heavy. I know they brought Coleman in, but outside of Capriza Bolden Act, the drop off is significant. And I think they just need more secondary scoring in general. And that's where you're off is really important for them.

It's a great article on The Athletic.com, why these seven NHL players could make or break their team season. Harmon, thanks so much for coming on with us today. Thanks for having me. All right, guys. What else you got going this week? I mean, we just talked about a lot of, a lot of different stuff here, but any, any irons in the fire, Sean, you don't have to, you don't have to reveal all of your capital's features that are coming. We know those are on time. Yeah, that, that would have to, that would until knowing exactly what it, what I'm right now. Thanks. You and me both, man. I wake up every day and find out what I'm writing right now. Let's see, what's up for me this week? I, uh, I planted some grass before I left for, for Virginia. That seems to be coming in quite nicely. I checked in on that before.

I sat down with you guys. Power rings are back. This is the first week that we're doing them, Dom and I. So we're trying to come up with some dumb little gimmick at this moment. Are we doing new Taylor Swift, Learge? I don't know what you're talking about. I've never heard of that woman. We're not doing that now.

I think I successfully killed that. Good. I don't, I'm not sure where we landed on the theme for this week. It'll probably be like an early, an early player who's lying, who's kind of caught our attention. He knows exactly what the thing is. I don't. Dude, I told you, I had a hellacious drive back from Ireland. That's true.

I'm in, I'm in no position to make executive decisions like that. I'll just leave it. I'll leave it to young Dominic. Shana, we've got a story coming tomorrow. We've got what Simon Edvinson's real value is here. Interesting. Both in a contract context and we looped Corey Prominent and tried to pin down what the value is in a trade context too. So Red Wings fans can, I don't know if I could say look forward to that.

I don't really think they're looking forward to it, but you can read it, please. You can, please, please read it because we don't know how quickly things are going to change. Keep in mind, like, we're going to be like, yes, this is going to go and then something else is going to drop and then Max is going to have to do 6,000 other things. Just don't. Just keep putting out fires. That's all the season is. Don't even put that out there. Yeah, exactly. All right. Thanks, thanks for doing the Shannon and Sean. Thank you all for watching and listening to this live edition.

of the Athletic Hockey Show. Enjoy the games tonight. And to our Canadian viewers and listeners, happy Thanksgiving weekend. We'll talk to you soon.