The Athletic Hockey Show - CHL Top Prospects game notebook, NHL trade deadline breakdown, listener questions, and more

Episode Date: March 25, 2022

First, Max and Corey break down all the action from the CHL Top Prospects game, with Corey on hand in Kitchener, Ontario, including thoughts on the presumptive No. 1 pick in this year’s NHL Draft, Shane Wright, Matthew Savoie, Conor Geekie, Denton Mateychuk, Nathan Gaucher, Jagger Firkus, and many more.Then, the guys recap the NHL trade deadline and discuss the moves made by serious Stanley Cup contenders in the Colorado Avalanche and Florida Panthers, the Boston Bruins’ acquisition of Hampus Lindholm, and thoughts on how rebuilding teams like the Anaheim Ducks, Montreal Canadiens, and Chicago Blackhawks fared at the deadline, as well.Plus, to close things out, the guys open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about Kent Johnson’s NHL readiness, Conor Geekie’s longterm pro outlook, the real potential for Matthew Knies, how many defensemen will go in the top-ten of this year’s draft, and what seems to be the competitive advantage for teams that have historically hit a lot of “home runs” in the draft.And, right now, you can get a 6 month subscription to The Athletic for just $1 a month when you visit http://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hey everybody and welcome to another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show's Prospect Series. I'm Max Boltman and with me as always is our resident prospect expert, Corey Prondman, who is coming to us. Are you still in Kitchener, Corey? You just said that the CHL top prospects game this week. Yeah, I'm still in the area right now. Just hanging out in Ontario for a little bit doing some of HL stuff. So obviously it was a, well, it was a pretty tightly contested game last night in Kitchener. I was able to watch our NHL Network.

You were able to watch it up close. We could debate who had a better view of the game from that perspective. But we could just start off because the game was opened by, and one of the top players in that game was the consensus number one overall pick as of this point, Shane Wright, and a pretty good performance from him. Right. Well, he had Team Red's only goal. And even though I think he was named Player of the Game for Team Red,

I thought his performance was kind of like up and down. his first couple of shifts he was you know very noticeable gets a break away in his first shift second shift three on one that leads to the goal his line was definitely the best line in the game although they kind of moved

seven off off his wing sometimes put Matthew Savoy up there but then like the second half of the game I mean then Team White had the puck for most of the game Team Red where Shane Wright played didn't really have the puck that much. And I just didn't feel like after that first period, he really did all that much. But again, he was, you know, probably the first, second best player on Team Red in terms of

terms of the skaters. He was. And I also thought that, you know, he did show, and this is something that we've known about Shane Wright's game for a while now, is he is the kind of player who has a lot of detail in his game already. He was still good on the boards and in the corners. These are things that NHL teams are going to like about him. And I think, you know, even if maybe the dynamic plays weren't as plentiful as he might have won to see. I think he still showed he's a really complete player in this game. Yeah, I like those aspects of his game. He's responsible defensively.

He can win battles. I watched him on this past Sunday in a Kingston front next game. And I was really impressed by how good defensively he was to go with, you know, rather good offensive components too. You know, he's an excellent player, but he's a really good. really boring, excellent player. He's just, he's like really well-rounded. But I'm not sure he's ever going to be the best on an NHL team at any one thing. He's not going to be your best skater. He's not going to be your most skilled player. He's not going to be your best playmaker. But he does a lot of things very, very well. And the, and the shot is is the other thing that maybe he would have a

chance to have the best on an NHL team, depending on the team. Yeah, no, his shot's very good. Interesting thing, though, this season is he has like a two to one assist a goal ratio this season, which is not what I thought would be the case coming in. Not such a bad thing necessarily, but maybe I guess it depends what those numbers are. If you just said that, I just, when I watched it before, I always thought his shot was a differentiator. He scored nearly 40 goals as a 15-year-old, nine goals and five games at the U18 World Championships. I always thought that his shot was his moneymaker.

And, you know, this season, he still shows, he scored several, you know, mid-long-range goals, but it's been his playmaking that's been a bigger driver. offense this season in the O HL anyways. I'm curious for you. I mean, he did test. I think Matthew Savoy ended up testing the best in some of the skating drills that they did at the top prospects game. But Shane Wright tested pretty well in a lot of those categories as well.

How much, if any, stock do you put into these kind of tests that they run? Combined like, I guess it's the closest thing you'd get to like the 40-yard dash and the three cone that you get for the NHL. Yeah. Historically, I don't put huge value into it. it's something you notice and you look at it and it's part

you know it could be something that could check your previous biases if you walked in and I know some scouts I've said this before I don't agree with it anymore but I said before

I said like Matthew Savoy on things an amazing skater and he has the best you know 30 meter results both with and without the puck you're like okay that's that's interesting but I remember watching Arthur Calliyev, and he had among the best results in these,

and anybody who watches him will not tell you he's like an amazing skater. Morgan Frost tested very well at this. He's not a great skater. So you balance those kinds of things. Like when I was watching Savoy's skate in the testing, I was there watching them do it. I didn't think he looked like a burner in that, but maybe your eye can't catch the differences of a hundredth or a tenth of a second kind of a thing. And maybe he is really one of the fastest players.

I mean, I think he's, I watched him in a game with the ice played by a week or so ago, and I thought his skating looked really, really good at that game. Like, he was flying around the ice. So I definitely can buy that being a big strength. But right, right, he's a great athlete. His skating is absolutely an asset. He's got good size. Although I think when they measured him,

along with all the top prospects. I think he lost an inch. Oh, really? That's unfortunate. But he is a very good athlete, very physically developed, and, you know, he said a very well-rounded player. So what, down to 6-1? I think he was 6-1, went down to 6-0.

Oh, okay, all right. Well, you brought up Matthew Stavoyle. Let's just get right into him and really his teammate Connor Geeky. I thought both of whom, I mean, they played on opposite teams, which is nice. They've been playing up the whole rest of the rest of the time. the season together. I noticed him both at various times in the game.

I kind of found myself a little more drawn to Savoy, but, you know, Giki, obviously, you know, his size makes him stand out in general. Yeah, I agree. I thought both played very well. I thought Savoy, in my opinion, was Team Red's best player in that game. I don't think he was outstanding, but I think if you look just, there wasn't really a guy on that team that consistently kind of drove the play and created chances. And I think Savoy was that.

I thought he competed very hard. I thought he used his skating well. I don't think he showed the dynamic playmaking that you were used to seeing from him in the Western League, but I still think that he had a very positive game. And Geeky, too, I thought he had a positive game. I think he showed the skill, the creativity, all the offensive instincts

that you like in Conor Geeky to go with the big six-three frame. There was a lot of times he tried to do a thing that he didn't connect, but at least saw him attempting to connect the dog, and try to create an opportunity. The thing that geeky is, what are you watching him in video or watching him live? The skating's kind of heavy. You saw quite a few times to be coming down the wing.

There was one time he got around the defense of Maverick Lamaroo and got to the net well to create a chance right at the net. But there's a lot of times he just couldn't, he would come down the wing and has to pull up or gets a play broken up because he can't get by the guy because of his skating. And that's going to be the big point of debate with NHL teams,

I think a lot of people really, really like this player, but can't they get past the skating? How do you differentiate him at the same age from a player like Dylan Strome? Well, Dylan Strome at the same age was like a 120-point player at the OHL. He was a dominant junior player. Tools-wise, tools-wise, I should say. Yeah, right, right. But it's just a difference. Yeah, no, it is.

Yeah, I mean, Gikis, I think, is an excellent player. If he wasn't on that team, if he was on a slightly worse team, I think he very well could be pushing 80, 90, 100 points season because he hasn't always been on the first power play unit this season in Winnipeg, which is interesting note about that team is I was watching the last couple of games, Savoy's not on the first power play unit either. They put the 16-year-old Zach Benson in Savoy's spot that he has been before. We'll see if that's persistent to the playoffs.

But that's definitely a variable with geeky. But I think your point is valid. Strong was this big center, great skill, great playmaker, really heavy feet. I would say geeky skis a little bit better than Strom's at the same time. I would say Strome had a little bit

more offensive creativity, not really a absurd statement to make for a guy who was like a 120 point player on a great team. That was a team that had to, I believe McDavid was in there. McDavid was in draft year because it went McDavid,

Eichol. Right. Then Strome Marner. And De Brinket was there too. That was a great area Otter's team to watch. So that would be the kind of minor differences, but I think Gigi is, I think there's a chance he can go like third, fourth, fifth overall. I don't think it's a lock, but I think there's a chance he can go in that range.

But I would guess doing a mock draft, he's probably more five to ten. Okay. All right. Moving to some of the team white defensemen, and they had a really good cluster of them on that team on the back end with Pavel Minchikov from Saginaw, Dentemitechuk, Owen Pickering, out of the Western League. who popped to you out of that group and what did you see from them? Yeah, he's not the guy I have the highest rated among the group in terms of NHL potential, but I thought Denton Mitechuk had a very strong game. I thought, you know, this is a guy who is an offensive-driven defenseman.

He's 5-10, 5-11. You know, he defends well enough because he's a very good skater, but it's not going to be what he will be known for if he has a successful NHL career. it will be his offense and I think he showed how he could use his skating use his offensive mind he jumped up into the play a lot to create offense

several times short-handed mind you it was like one time I thought where he got caught and it resulted in a chance coming the other way but overall I thought he had a very positive game Owen Pickering his D-Man pair I really liked this player but I thought he had just an okay game He wasn't bad, but he wasn't great.

I think he kept his game simple. He was just retrievals, breakouts, didn't try doing anything too fancy, which when you're 6'4 and you can skate well, I think, is all you really need to be a second, third, third, parent, offense in the NHL. But I didn't think he stood out. Mentecov, thought had some good moments. His deep partner, Tristan Luno, you know, I thought did some good things with the puck's feet still look kind of heavy.

that's the concern going forward. Is he for sure going to be a first round pick? I can't say right now that that's a for sure thing with Tristan Loneau. And that, I mean, this is why Team White won is their defense is so much better than Team Red's defense. Because even that third pair of Matt's Lindgren and Noah Warren, I thought, still did some pretty good things. Talking to scouts over the last couple days, there's definitely a lot of attention on both,

you know, whether it's Lingren for different players, Lingren's a very offensively driven player, small defensemen, I know, Warren's 6-5, skates really well, competes hard. I think, I mean, just that their entire blue line was really impressive. Yeah, I mean, and from this grouping, like, it's not, I don't think it's inconceivable that you could see Pickering. I don't, sorry, Minchikov, I don't know about Pickering creeping into that top. I mean, maybe 15 a little safer than 10, but a couple of those guys could go in that, in that high range in the first round. Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, you're looking at, I think, most of the defensemen that will go.

in the first round in this draft outside of the Europeans and David Yerichick's I mean image I think you know you're one pickering Pavlamyakov Kevin Kortinski uh... Dente Motechuk maybe Tristan Luno I mean these are the guys who are the first round candidates if you just look around the world and say well who else is going to go because there's not really any really you know there's maybe one good cany United States Sam Renzel with high school as a maybe um you go to Europe it's there's there's some other there's some maybies like maybe Elias Salaminson from from

Sweden, although I would say he hasn't had quite that year. So, I mean, I think you look at those blue lines on Team Ryan, team right, particularly team white. I think that's going to be at least what the industry thinks are the long NHL career defensemen in this year's draft. You mentioned Matechuk jumping up into the play, and one of those plays he did ultimately ended up setting up a Nathan Goshe goal. And Goshe was one of the guys who popped for me.

I liked his game in this one. I thought his skating looked good or better. and I thought he was really, you could see the complete package. He's a pretty well-rounded player, and obviously he gets to finish on the goal. What did you see out of Gosey, and where's he at this point in the year? I agree on Gosey. I thought he was very apparent throughout the whole game in a positive way. He's 6'3-center, very physically developed as a late birthday.

You show he can win battles along the boards in front of the net. I thought, you know, he's not the most dynamic offensive player I ever see, but I thought he showed some flashes of skill. There was that one rush. He kind of inside out, an offenseman, creative play at the net, scored the goal, worked hard. The offense isn't amazing. I think he's got something like 40 points and 49 games this year.

And the Q was a pointed game in his previous season. But I don't think this is ever going to be a guy that's going to dazzle you with his offensive ability. But I think there's enough offense there to go with the size, the athleticism, the work ethic, I think he could be a third line center in the NHL. And that's not a bad thing. Third line centers are, as we discussed on this podcast before, are very valuable.

I think if you look at the trade market, such as the one that just happened a couple days ago, third line centers are, you know, are really viable. You can argue Andrew Kopp on the New York Rangers is a third line center, and he got a really significant package for Winnipeg.

So I think Gossay's probably a late, late second half of the first, first round of right now. I don't know if he'd go on the first half of the first rounder not really scoring that much this season, but I do think he's a strong prospect. And then the last guy, Ty Nelson, I don't want to call him the lone man on Team Red there, but maybe the best defender on Team Red in this game. Yeah, and I think I would have as a prospect, Kevin Korninski right above him. I thought Kortinski didn't have his best game.

He had a couple of good moments, a couple of tougher moments there too. on the defending side. But I thought Ty Nelson played very, very well, thought he used his skating well. He moved the puck well. I thought he showed he can, you know, he's a very impressive junior player. Because he has the competitiveness.

He has the skating. He has good offense. I'm not sure it's great offense, but it's good offense. And I think he did a lot of positive things. I think there's been a lot of debate among Ty Nelson in the scouting community this season. Because I think you look at a guy

who's barely five foot 10. and has the talent that I mentioned, has the skating, has some offense, he competes hard. The question is, what does he project as into the National Hockey League? Is there enough offense there to be a power play guy in the National Hockey League, even if it's a second power play guy? And I'm not sure if he will. He's got 48 points in 57 games this year. It's not usually indicated of a guy who's going to be a power play guy in the National

Hockey League. Just watching him, I would say he's skilled. he can smart he can move it, is not exceptional. So the question is, can he defend? Can he be a penalty kill guy? And again, he's 5-10. A whole lot of 5-10 guys fill that role in the national hockey league. It doesn't mean he can't.

But I think that's why I talked to, there are some NHL scouts I talk to who really like Ty Nelson. But there's quite a few as well, I would say more than the ones who do like him, who are skeptical of him being a top two-round pick for those reasons I just stated. Relative to Lane Hudson, where would you happen today? They would be close. I think Lane Hudson's kind of falling off here a little bit in the second half.

I would still have Lane Hudson ahead because I think his sense, his brain is among the best in the draft. And I still think it's worth a shot there. But, you know, on that team, I think Seamus Casey's outplayed Lane Hudson lately. Casey's been hurt the last couple weeks. Let me slide one more in here. And then this guy was not on my radar at all. And, you know, I looked his numbers after the game. And, you know, not a lot there.

but the game that Reed Dick had was really good at net. I'm just curious that he put himself on any radars with the performance that he had in the second half of that game for Team Red. He did play very well. It's the goalies get hot in a span of a period or two, but this is a really bad draft class for goaltenders. So any goaltenders recovering your attention is a positive thing. And the one of the player I want to draw attention to would be Jagger Furcus.

Yeah, so how would I forget? Yeah, who was a name player of the game for Team. White. I believe NHL Central Scouting is going to elevate him to a first round grade. Having a very strong season in Mooshaw, I think he has something like 70 points in 60 games or something along those lines.

Not a guy who, 75 points actually. He has a really good skill level. He's intelligent. He can really shoot the puck. You saw that in the goal. I've seen him score goals like that throughout the season in the Western League. 5-10, not good, not great skater, but good enough, you know, and the scoring level have this season been quite significant.

Scored well as a 16-year-old as well. It looks like an interesting prospect right now. I'm not sure he'll go on the first round, but I can see him being a second rounder. Production not that far behind like a Matthew Savoy in that league. And he was buzzing last night, and I'm sorry that I left him off. I had him on my list. I just skipped over it when I went to the defenseman. But, yeah, really strong season for him.

and sounds like a potential late first rounder. Yeah. I'm not sure just because he's 5-10 and not like an amazing skater. I'm not sure if he will for sure going the first round. But he's definitely in the conversation. All right, Corey, let's get in now to the trade deadline recap. I know you went big time. You guessed it in on the live show on Monday with Ian Mendez.

So I'm playing second fiddle here. And I try not to have you repeat yourself too much. But I know to start off, I know you're always a big fan when teams take the mantra of flags fly forever. at least we're in their position to reasonably take that position. And this year there were two teams that did that in L3 teams. We've come to expect it from Tampa and they go get Brendan Hagle. But I think Florida and Colorado really pushed in big stacks of chips here. What did you think of that from them?

Yeah, I really like what Colorado did, just because they were the clear favorite coming into the year. To get Josh Manson kind of complements the very skilled defensemen that they have, presuming if their blue line gets healthy, if they get fully healthy to go, you know, if they have now, if McCar and guys like Gerard and Byron, you add a guy like a Josh Manson

and adds a little bit more grit, like that's a great guy to add there, like your second or your third pair. You bring an artery lichen in kind of like in the same vein where you have all this skill in your top six and then you add a guy who has skill but can provide a little bit more compete penalty killing ability there and onto your third or fourth line

to go with some secondary offense. You know, I like that. To do that, they had to trade two very good young defense prospects, Justin Barron and Drew Helleson, guys who are big, mobile, right-handed defensemen who could move the puck, good enough that I think will become good NHL players. Those are tough pieces to lose. But they didn't empty the farm system. There's still some guys left. They still have some draft picks in future years to either use themselves or use in future deadlines. So I really like what Colorado did.

Florida is an interesting one. I like in theory what they did. I mean, they, you know, just because a guy like Claudeau wanted to come there and they were able to get him for a fairly good price. I like Ben Chorin. I think he's going to help that team out. But they paid a really big price of that deadline. And I think, not surprisingly.

I thought they were the best team of the Eastern Conference before they had those moves. I obviously think they're the best team of the Eastern Conference now by a larger margin. But if they don't win this year, you look at what they have left in their organization, they don't have a lot of pieces left to use in future deadlines. You're looking basically at Mackie Samiskevich, their first round

pick from this past season. He's had a nice year in Michigan, not a great year, but a good enough year. Maybe Gregorian Anesenko, if he's bounces back at some point in the American League, but they don't have a first round pick right now until 2025. So I think they have a very good chance to win this season. But, I mean, you look at Dom's model. I think he gives them like a 15% chance of the cup, which is the second best odds

he gives any team, but it's not 15% is not great odds. So if they don't win, it's going to put that organization in a tough spot, I think, going forward. Well, here's what I like about it for Florida. is that I think they realize the bargain that they have Jonathan Huberto at. And I think ultimately, really, they've given themselves two cracks at this. Giroux is only a one-year rental, but most of their other big guys are under contract for next year as well. So they've given themselves.

Sharada's a rental, I think, too, right? Yes, Sherat is a rental. Yes, that's correct. Most of their big guys, though, are at least one more year. And I think that gives them a couple cracks at this before the Piper gets paid. and really that means Jonathan Huberto gets paid. But so much of this for them is going to come down to net. I mean, it's Sergey Bobrovsky.

You know, you went out and you paid him the big money to be a series winner in the playoffs. And he's 33 years old. You know, as with all guys of that age, I'm really concerned how that's going to age two, three years from now. This year, I think he's played good enough to think that he can do it. And I think you've seen enough from Spencer Knight to think even if he, if Bobrovsky falters, you've got at least a prayer that Knight could come in and do it. Instead, he was really good in last year's playoffs. But they've given himself, I think, two years.

Yeah, Spencer and I started off really, didn't start well this season. He's been better the last month or two, I think. I also get it from Flores' perspective. If you look like all the way, you know, no higher than imagine towards like the ownership perspective, when was that time this team won a playoff round? What was it, like, the mid-late 90s? I have no idea. I don't remember it.

I think their last playoff win was like, like, was the John Van Biesbrook years. which was a while ago. I can look it up right now as we're talking about it. But if you, from that perspective, if, you know, if you really never have not won even like a playoff round and forever, I can see where that would come into play. Yeah, just looking at, their last playoff one was 1996. So that was a long time ago.

Yeah, no, it was. And you're competing with, you're in-state rival who's off back-to-back Stanley Cough. So how would you tier, I guess, these three teams? Tampa, Florida, Colorado went all-end this year. I mean, there's the only contenders. Carolina is a really strong contender. They didn't make quite the same all-in push. Toronto didn't make quite the same all-end push.

How would you tier and rank these three teams right now? I think Colorado is on a tier by themselves. Interesting. Both because of talent and because of the path they're going to have to face to get to the Stanley Cup final. The east is a tougher gauntlet. I think if you put Florida and Colorado in a best of seven by themselves, I think they're fairly similar.

But I would argue the Eastern Conference is a lot better than the Western Conference. And it doesn't mean the Colorado is for sure going to, you know, they haven't had a time of plan of success. So we'll see whether this group gets a done or not. But at least on paper, they look like they should have an easier path to the Stanley Cup finals. Yeah, I do get that. I think that's true. I think if you're picking the Stanley Cup final right now,

you're a heck of a lot more confidence saying Colorado is in it than either the other two are in it. I do like the way both of the Florida teams match up with Colorado, though. I think they're going to be able to play them heavy. I think you're going to be able to play them fast. I think that's a really big advantage. And a testament to both of those GMs that have built teams that don't have to play just one way in the playoffs. Yeah. No, I tend to agree.

I really like both of those teams. But I would say those are the two best teams in the East. I don't think Toronto and Carolina are that far behind. Boston's had on a good run right here. Technically, the Rangers are ahead of a couple of those teams in the standings. It's goaltending built team. Historically, those don't tend to have the success to go to the Stanley Cup final, but sometimes they do.

Sometimes goaltenders carry a team to the end. It happens. You saw last year carry Price, did some really nice things in the playoffs. So it's possible. But, yeah, I would say. say, I would probably agree to you that the two Florida teams look like the two contenders right now. One question I was going to ask you is, you know, we talked about with Colorado and Florida, teams that look like they were contenders, you know, so they kind of go all in.

What did you think of a team like Boston trading like a big price for Hampas Lindholm, given that they were probably in a secondary tier contender right now? And I love Hamphus Lindholm. I think he's an awesome player, you know, big, really mobile, has some secondary offense. can play tough minutes, but they paid a big price and a big contract for him. And I'm not sure he by himself gets them into that top tier of contenders. Yeah, Boston is a team that is in one of the, I think, least enviable positions that a team can be in, which is that you still have really franchise defining, like generationally defining players for your franchise

that are playing at the peak of their powers, and that being Patrice Bergeron in this case, Brad Marchand is still right there. Passanick. Right. Well, Pastor Nac's young. You got a lot left there. But you don't know how many more years of Patrice Berseron you're going to get. And do I think Boston can win it this year?

I don't. But I do understand why they want to give themselves every chance to win it. Yeah. They have a prayer. Like, you know, if they get to a best seven with Tampa or whatever, yes, Tampa would be the favorite. But I think they've got a puncher's chance. They do. Because they have these guys that we're talking.

talking about the top who have done it, who have been there. I do think they help their blue line. I think they needed to do that after losing Chara and Krug in the past couple years. And I think that works. But I do think ultimately for them to give up, you know, they were able to hang on to a couple of their top prospects, but they ultimately give up a first-round pick. And that could be a pick that hovers right around 20. And that can still be pretty valuable. So I think I respect them for doing it. I think it's a good thing for the game that they did it. I don't know that they're going. ultimately be able to get really. I think they'll probably get out of the first round,

depending on who they match up with. Oh, they probably won't because they won't match up with Toronto. So this could be a first round exit for them. And we'll see how that goes. Aging on the Toronto fans. What did you think of all the future draft picks that got moved at this deadline? There wasn't a lot of 22 first rounders that got moved. There was a lot of 23 top two round picks,

even some top 2024 top two round picks that were getting moved, which I thought was a lot more than we've seen in previous years. Well, I was trying to wrap my head around this. I think this was something that was just because sellers wanted these or because what the buyers had, when you look at a team like Florida that has traded so many first round picks, I think that has to be part of the answer there. At some point, you're dealing with a lot of teams that are all in.

And so you look at Tampa and they're trading multiple first, right? Obviously, one of those has to be a future first. Florida is trading two future first at this deadline because they already traded one for Sam Reinhardt. So I thought it was really interesting. I thought it was really balzy because there are some teams here where you know, I know you mentioned this on the live show, but Florida, you know, by giving up a 2024 first round pick, that is after whatever the Huberto extension is going to look like. This roster could look quite a bit different in 2024 as any team's roster could look different two years from now. You don't know if you're,

I mean, you think you're a playoff team, but it can change fast for you. I thought it was pretty ball seat. Yeah, and for the flyers perspective, obviously they had their hands tied, you know, been publicly reported several places. Juru wanted to go to Florida. But that, you know, let's just say Florida, you know, they don't, they don't bottom it. Let's just say they're an average NHL 2022, which I think they still could be a pretty good team then, too. Let's just say, hypothetically, they're an average NHL team. So I'm picking like around 16, 18, something like that. Yep. That player realistically is making your lineup in 2027, 2008, roughly around that. long time from now.

The chances of the general manager acquiring that pick still being there. And I think it's not only a comment on Chuck Fletcher. Just based on numbers and history is low. So it's, I found that interesting. You know, I also like always like to read online and see speculation about how next year's draft, it's always better than this year's draft. Yeah, that's always the case. I heard about this year's draft, you know, we were doing last year's draft coverage.

I remember this. Yes. the year before that one and so on and so forth. But yeah, it was the three-headed monster of Wright, Savoy and Lambert, of which, you know, at least two-thirds of that has held up pretty good as potential, you know, top six, seven picks. But, you know, it's just tough. These are young kids. It's tough to project. But I think you're betting on the variance if you're Philly, right? If you're one of these teams that took a pick one or two years down the road, what you're excited about is you don't,

you know, you think it's still going to be a late pick. But if you take a 2020, you pretty much know it's a late pick. Anaheim knows Lawson's pick is going to be 20 or later. You don't know for the 2023 or 2024s. Right. There's also kind of a time value of money type of thing there too, where a pick later takes more time for you to get it kind of thing, which is a variable.

If you're a rebuilding team, you want players sooner, not later, because eventually you don't want to suck anymore. That's always a variable. And with 2023, yes, there's those three really, good players that we all know about Connor Badard in Regina, Adam Ventilly in Chicago, my name Mitch McCaw, but when I read all this cover about like how the 23 draft is going to be amazing,

I'm like, really, interesting. I don't, I'm not aware of that, but that's interesting that everyone else seems to know what next year's draft class is going to look like a year and a half out. You know, we're still trying to figure out this year's draft class that there has been no

international competition among the U-7, among the 05 age group to like really like sort that out a little bit, actually, but not that much. So it's hard to project future draft classes, as something I've always said. I think some of it just tends to be influenced by the kids who are late birthdays and who get bumped back year. Like you look at like a Stramel or Leo Carlson and Sweden. And so they play in the S.HL. A year early and you go, oh, wow, Dahlborg, Dvorsky might actually be a true.

He's an 05. Okay, he's an 05. But Nate Danielson, Alate 04 is really good to Brennan. W.HL. I think there are some guys next year's draft. like just because they're at a top badard fantilly mitchcock looked like studs but things could happen a year from now like absolutely what's we get from a year from now and mitchcock just can't get it done in the khl i think it would surprise me if it does happen that way but let's just say we get a year

from now he just can't break through with scah and can't find a meaningful role on it on it since they're a great typically great hl team when it's the fantili goes to michigan and just doesn't have the big year or something like that yeah that it could it just changes the picture things happen just like this year. Brad Lambert just lays a complete egg in league. And I love Brad Lambert. I love parts about Brad Lambert anyways. But those things happen.

And then the year I, Slavkovsky kind of rises. And the picture changes a lot year to year for these age groups, both during the draft years and after the draft, too. I mean, you look at the last year's draft, where does Luke Hughes slot now? You know, you can argue he outplayed Owen Power for stretches of the season. Yeah. Well, let's talk about some of the teams that are going to be,

heavily interested in those drafts and what they did at this deadline. A couple of first-year GMs in Pat Verbeek, first-time GMs, not even first year, they've been on the job for literally months, if not less. Pat Verbeek and Anaheim and Ken Hughes in Montreal, both got just huge asset halls in exchange for some painful decisions. I mean, you look at Ken Hughes giving up Lekinin and Shirat, but you look at Verbeek dealing Lindholm and Raquel. These are not Josh Manson. These were guys who had bent a lot to those franchises and ultimately it sets up a couple more years of hardship for both of those those franchises yeah Anaheim was the one that was the toughest one I think probably for the fans I think Montreal fans knew they were a bad team they're selling

yeah that's the way it goes but Anaheim had a decent year I know they're not making the playoffs but they were in the hunt there for a little bit they looked like they could at least they were they were close. If maybe you get, if you can extend one or two of these guys at a little bit in the offseason, the young guys develop like Trevor Ziegress, Jamie Drys, Yel, Miss, McTavish comes in next season. You can start building around this. And now I still really like all those young players I mentioned, but it just takes, it's going to take that much more time. Because Anaheim historically is not, even though it is California,

historically they don't draw the premium free agents like the Kings do. So that's good. I think it's just going to be take more time there to build this team. Even though I do say, I do like core there. I just, without some significant external additions, it's hard to see them a playoff team in like a year or two. Well, here's what's interesting to me is now you look at the way that they're built. I mean, the next question is obviously going to be John Gibson.

Yeah, I was going to say that. Yeah. 28 and has a long-term deal. But you look at some of the way that they're built, they're going to have down the middle, Mason McTavish and Trevor Zegress. They're going to have on the blue line. Jamie Drysdale, Olin Zellweger is having a really good year, and now you had Drew Hellison. I think you could probably use one more big young D there, but you still have Cam Fowler in the picture.

Really, right now, Anaheim's in a position where you have some of the hardest positions nailed down, pending what happens with Gibson, pending how some of these guys develop. I don't want to get too far ahead of my skis on Zellwiger or Hellasin, for example, who, you know, let's say they're, but let's say they can be a second pair for the ducks one day. You have a lot of pieces there. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, no, I like a lot of the pieces they have. The young players especially, I think they've done a very good job at the draft. Has that team has historically done for a very long time. But just saying, when you lose, particularly Lynn Holm and Raquel and Manson,

those were really important players, particularly, you know, Manson's kind of fallen off a little bit in recent years, but definitely, you know, Hempas Lin-Holmes. I mean, this guy, you picked him, whatever, the fifth, six overall. about 10 years ago. He was everything you wanted him to be when you picked him that high. That's a tough guy to lose and not easy to replace. And I think Jamie Drysdale one day could potentially hit that level, but he's not there yet.

Yeah. And that's going to be the growing pains for that team in the next couple years is that, yes, you kept onto your core guys, but you lost some of the guys who were helping to stabilize you, who were really putting you in that contention that you were in for a playoff spot in the Pacific Division. So I do think it's going to be a couple of tough years there. But I think just the way that they already have it structured, you get a couple of good guys in the draft. We'll see what they can do this year. But they're going to have an opportunity if they want to get another really good D.

If they want to get another winger, it seems like based on where they're picking to do that. And so at that point, wingers are the easier thing, I think, to find in free agency. I know you talked about you got to lure them, but they are the easier one to find. Yes. So I think their track isn't so long. Montreal looks like it's going to be a long slog ahead, but they did well with what they're able to get this year. Yeah, I think Montreal, teams like Montreal, teams like Chicago are in different positions because one is because they have so much more room to grow.

They have to actually get the young assets in place. They've got a couple of Montreal's got Nick Suzuki-Colkola Field. Chicago's got, you know, Kirby Doc and a couple other guys. But there's a lot more pain ahead, particularly since Chicago does not have a first-round pick in this year's draft, which is very painful for a team that's rebuilding, and bottomed out this season. But also because they are, you know, big market teams, there are certain advantages of being a big market team.

That when the, you know, you look at like, say, the New York Rangers quote-unquote rebuilt, that they were rebuilding for a couple of years and then just happened to get Adam Fox for nothing, and Artembe Panarin walk through their doors. a team like Chicago will have those kind of advantages when they're ready to kind of turn the corner. I actually didn't mind the Seth Jones trade if they were a contender. Seth Jones wanted us to go to Chicago.

He's a great player. It just wasn't the right time to make that move for where they were as an organization. Colorado would have made that move. It would have been different, but Chicago didn't make the playoffs last season, it was kind of a weird move. But those big market teams can draw in

those kind of pre-examination. of talents when it's time to win. So I don't think their rebuilds will take forever, but you're definitely looking at at least four to five years of pain, I think, for both of them ahead of. And the obvious question here is, what does this mean for Jonathan Taves and Patrick Kane, who obviously have a say in what it means for Jonathan Taves and Patrick Kame? Both of them have no move clauses. But that span, it just is hard to fathom.

It's hard to fathom the Blackhawks being good again in time for these guys to be playing any kind of really meaningful role on that team. Seths Jones as well. Yeah. I mean, he's younger than those guys, but you're right. I mean, he's in his prime right now. He's 27. He'll turn 28 later this year.

I love the comment that Taze gave to our colleague, Mark Lazarus, and after Hagle got traded, and he's like, man, if he's not part of the rebuild, you know, who is exactly? That guy's 23 years old. Well, I just wonder, like, you know, the freight that both of those two guys carry, is significant. I think you're going to have teams, particularly for Patrick Kane, who will probably figure it out to do what it takes if that becomes an option for them. We'll see how many teams that becomes an option for, if it becomes an option for anyone. What do you think kind of

return the Blackhawks could get, though, and how do you weigh that cost? Let's say you can get a hall similar to maybe a little better than what Florida got for Giroux, but it's Patrick Kane, a guy who defined an era for your franchise. Yeah, I mean, you don't see a whole lot of those traits typically happen for those reasons. There's all kinds of factors that go into that. It's the fact that they meant so much to the Blackhawks is probably that Chicago means so much to them. It's become their home, become a place where they've kind of entrenched, become icons to some extent. Those are very hard discussions, but it'll come down to the players on how much they want to win.

And I don't know their conscious situation off top of my head. of years they have left. One more after this year. Yeah, so maybe, you know, you could get those kind of similar prices. Tays still a very good player. He's not what he once was, but he's still a very good player. Cain's an excellent player. So, I mean, they could kind of fetch those kind of big prices for sure, and Chicago

needs that. You look at their farm system right now. They aren't, yes, they got the first round picks from Tampa, which are great. Probably going to be later first, but still great to get those assets. you look at their final test now, and there really isn't much coming of the premium variety. You're happy with what you see at Kirby Doc in the NHL. It's not that didn't have the big year this year, but still a very talented player. But you remember, like last year, they traded their first round pick.

That I believe that was the pick that ended up becoming Cole Cillinger. So, you know, if they get Nolan Allen, late in the first that year, he's been fine. But it's hard to see the path forward for them becoming. contenders, not going to have contenders, like making the playoffs any time in the near future, you're just how few future assets they have in their system. Should be interesting. All right. I guess just to wrap up on Montreal, just in Barron, what are they getting in him as a

player? And obviously a first round pick in 2020, a player who looks like he can be a, you know, an upper part of the lineup defenseman. But how does he figure in for them? Yeah, I mean, he's played, I think, quite well as a rookie pro when he played with the Colorado Eagles, you know, big, really. really mobile defenseman as a right shot. Obviously, he's really attractive right away.

I think he makes a good first pass. I think the offense is probably secondary in the NHL, but it'll be good enough. I think he could be a second pair of defenseman in the NHL. I don't think the offense is good enough to be a legit top pair of fenceman. He's an excellent prospect, though. And he definitely becomes one of the best prospects in their system, probably behind Caden Gouldley, but not so far behind Cain and Gully.

So they've got some promising deep prospects in their system. They'll have those two. You've got Romanov up in the NHL, even though he hasn't had to start to his career that he probably hoped he would. To go with the young players like Suzuki, like Caulfield, it's a start, and they'll have, they'll bring in a great prospect this year, whoever it is, whether it's Shane Wright, you're at Sikovsky, Logan Cooley,

you know, one of the top two defensemen of your check for Nemich. we'll see. So they're at a good position to at least start the rebuild, but they need a lot more than that. Those are, you know, to build a competitive hockey team in the NHL, you need more than just a couple of good players. You need a lot of good players. So I still think there's quite a few years of paying ahead for Montreal Canadiens. Ten picks in the first four rounds this year, seven in the first three should get them off to a good start. But yeah, it's going to take a couple of those.

And they've already started stockpiling for next year. Like you said, they've got the 2023 first from Florida as well. They've had quite a few of those in recent years. They've had quite a few drafts. In the last 10 years, they've had a ton of picks, but it doesn't always work out. And you kind of have to hope for the best sometimes when you're in those situations. All right, Corey, let's wrap up with a mailbag here today. Not a super long one, but a few good questions here.

Ernie Morris wants to know about Kent Johnson. And if you think he's ready for the NHL this year after his season ends at Michigan, obviously the NCAA tournament starting this weekend. And obviously you can sign at the conclusion of your season. You could sign right now if you want it. But we anticipate he signs at the end of this season. Yeah, I think he will sign. I think he will play games for Columbus.

I'm not sure from watching this season. If he's ready to help the blue jackets in a meaningful manner, just quite yet. Maybe he has a big summer physically developed a lot more. I still think he's kind of lean. he's kind of on the fringe there. He's an excellent, excellent player. He was a fifth overall pick for a reason.

Maybe he didn't have the huge, huge year scoring-wise you expected, but still put up really good numbers, you know, off-the-chart skill level. I could see it working, but I could also see him struggle a little bit in his first full year. Maybe he's got to get to American League time. But he's close, I think. The one thing I was talking about with some scouts the other day is, you know, does Luke Hughes look like a guy who can jump in? right away. I think the plan there was for him to go play two years in Michigan. But with the

year he had, I think there's going to be some decisions to make in New Jersey. We have seen two years be kind of the route for the college defense. I mean, McCar did it, Hughes did it, McAvoy. McAvoy. That's right. So that has seemed to be the way. But yeah, I mean, you put up a season like that, you do kind of change the question a little bit. The last, I think, big deep prospect to go, to do one and done was with Jacob Schupper at Michigan. Yeah. And Noah Hannepin.

Yeah. I mean, to circle it back on Johnson, the guy I kind of can't ever separate him from is Trevor Zegris. And Trevor Zegris, obviously, his freshman year of college ended in the COVID year, so he couldn't go right up. But he did split, like you said, between the NHL and HAL the next year. Trevor Ziger's a little thicker. He's a little sturdier build than Kent Johnson, which maybe even adds a little bit to

the point about some age all time. But that would not surprise me if that's Johnson's path, like maybe come up and see what it's about this year, get a taste for where the bar is in the NHL, and then start in the NHL and work his way up at some point in the next season. Right. And Zegrois was really good in the American League. I think that was a good experience. He looked awesome in those games.

And yeah, I can see that being a path for Kent Johnson for sure. He's close. I'm not saying he's not ready, but I think he's on the fringe for me. He had a really, really nice one-timer goal in the Big Ten championship game the other day, and I think that's a really nice. You know, he's always been able to shoot the puck, obviously. but the more that he can have that kind of diverse offensive attack because the playmaking is so good, the skill is really good, but the creativity and the sense is really good.

The more that he can compliment that by being a true shot threat as well, that's only going to help the whole package play up. I think the tournament will be a big test for him too. I think the big 10 had some good teams, but I think we're recording this on Thursday, they start to turn around Friday, presuming they beat AIC, which if they don't, that'd be a whole, that'd be a whole thing. But if they'd be an AIC and they go deeper in the tournament, if they end up facing someone like a Minnesota State Mancato, they end up facing Minnesota Duluth, those would be teams that play a more pro-style heavy game

that would kind of be the obstacles that he would need to face at the higher levels. If he did well versus those kinds of teams, I think it would be a good indicator. Yeah, I think that's a great point. J.P. Claremont, how do you see Connor, we talked about this guy earlier in the show? How do you see Connor Geeky long-term as a pro? His package seems quite intriguing. You think he could be a steal in terms of his impact on a team's lineup, big man, good hands, great vision.

There's not a lot of players like that. Yeah, I think Conard Geeky is a protected top two-line center in the National Hockey League. I think he's a top, he's been a top-10 guy for me all year, still is in terms of the talent level in the draft. I don't, I don't predict him as a one because of the skating, as I mentioned earlier in the podcast. But I do really like the player.

You know, I think he can be a second-line center on a really good team. I think it's because he's going to is. has a ton of skill. There is some physicality in his game. If he wasn't on the ice this year, I think he'd be putting up really big numbers. I think this guy's an X-1-X-N-Prospect. Can he be a one-true 1-C with those feet? It's going to be the question until he pretty much proves it.

Nick Chapman wants to know the real potential for Matthew Nyes, as opposed to the fake potential for Matthew Nyes, which is what usually you give in these questions. Oh, gotcha. I mean, Matt's had an awesome year. If you were the Toronto Maple Leafs, whether the team or a fan, and you got this guy the second round a year ago, he had as good a year as you could have hoped for.

He's one of the best players in the Big Ten, goes to the World Juniors, plays well with the U-20 team, goes to the Olympics, hold his own versus men right away, big, powerful winger with a really good skill level, who showed he can create in both, with his skill and with his physicality. Skips, he's just okay, but I mean, I think this is a guy who can be a top six winger in the NHL. And I think he has a chance to be a good top six winger in the NHL.

It was interesting. I saw a comment in the Toronto kind of trade day down on recap, but they left some roster spots open for him and Nick Aberzizi, potentially to sign at the end of the year. I don't think that means, I think that I don't think they said that particularly if I think our Jonah Siegel wrote about that, which I think, would be interesting, I have heard some scouts speculate that Nyes could jump in right away. So I'm not saying that's going to happen, but it's something that I think is something monitor over the next few weeks. And obviously there are reports that Toronto really did not want to move Nyes and that, you know, obviously you can understand why teams would ask about him after the year that he's had. So, you know, clearly a team that could have justified an all-in push, but really saw the need to stay with this player, which I understand.

They got amazing value on him in last year's draft. Vincent Parento, how many defensemen do you think will be drafted in the top 10 in 2022, and how many are worth being drafted in the top 10? I think the two guys you feel rarely confident about will be the two Europeans, Simon Nemich, David Iarcheck. There are some concerns about David Iurechuk because of the knee injury, had a torn knee, I believe, torn ACL at the world juniors. He is back practicing right now. I think there is still hope he will play at some point before the end of the year.

maybe get into the Czech playoffs. If there's a world championship, maybe he can go to that. So I don't think his season is offered just quite yet. And I think his recovery has been on track. I think they said a couple of months, and he looks like he's on track to come back within that time frame. Once you get past those two, I think there's some maybes.

I think Pavlov-Minticod is in the mix, the Saginaut offenseman. I'm not saying he will for sure go in the top ten, but he is in the mix. Then I think you start getting some of the maybes. I think I've talked to some scouts here and there who would mention, you know, Owen Pickering as a maybe. They'd mention Kevin Kortiske as a maybe.

But I would say the only two real consensus ones are the two Europeans. And for me, Menterikov is a third best defenseman in the draft. The one guy has been kind of rising. I'm not quite there on him yet, but the one I hear from a lot of NHL teams is the Swiss defenseman Leon Bischel in Lexham. There's a lot of people out there to go watch him over the last couple of weeks. you know, heavy hitter decision maker types. I'm not saying he's going top 10, but I'm hearing, you know, top 20, top 15 buzz on this guy a little bit more of late.

All right. And then we will close with Andy B. Who wants to know why some teams draft better than others, the teams that have hit a lot more home runs of the draft. What do you think is their competitive advantage? Is it analytics having more scouts, a little bit of magic fairy dust? What do you see it? It might be more than magic fairy dust than anything else. quite honest. I think if

if anybody knew that answer, they'd find that one thing and just do it better than everybody else. There's a lot of luck to the draft. You know, we can point to how smart Tampa was for drafting Brain Point, but then you have to

remember they drafted Johnny McLeod, a couple picks right before him. You know, it's, you know, and it's not the pick on Tampa, it's just a, I can make this example, you know, time and time again through all the draft steals. I think when the wings drafted Littstrom, I think what he was like,

the third or fourth player, they picked in that draft or something like that. Correct, yeah, Listern's third and federer fourth. You know, so, like, the draft is a lot of, you know, you find something about a player you like, they put them on your list, but you realize there's going to be variants that players develop in weird and wacky ways.

I was talking about before in terms of projecting a draft class a year out. After you draft guys, those guys change in real, significant ways. So, I mean... All those things that he mentioned help, right? I mean, you have analytics that helps. It's more information, more scouts, more eyes.

That helps. I was going to say that. Yes. I think data is very important. I think working your ass off is very important in terms of making sure you're getting out to watch as much as you can, watch as much video as you can, get as much information as you can. You know, there are certain stories you hear about teams that may not maybe have more

chaotic processes. more systematic processes. I tend to think this latter makes more sense, but it's hard to say it. I can't say from all the stories I've heard, all the draft picks I've observed, that there's this one way to do things that definitely work out.

Because for every small-skilled defenseman, small-skill player, like a brain point, you have the Jacob Slavin-Pitt, who's the big, mobile defenseman, who, you get in the mid-round, and becomes a stud for Carolina, which is the exact opposite of brain point, who was a small, slow forward at the time.

He's a very good skater now in Mooshjaw, and he becomes his great players. There's no one way to, I think, get great players, which I think adds to the chaos of the draft. It makes it exciting. And the fun of it, for sure. All right, that's going to do it for us. Thank you for listening to this episode

of the Athletic Hockey Show's prospect series. Subscribe to the Athletic Audio Plus on Apple Podcasts and get all the bonus content from our entire network. You start with a 30-day free trial. And then it's just 99 cents a month after that. Right now, you can subscribe to The Athletic for $1 a month for six months. When you visit Theathletic.com slash hockey show. We'll talk to you soon.