The Athletic Hockey Show - Connor Bedard’s scorching WJC start, Alexis Lafrenière’s healthy scratch, will the US win Group B?, revised tournament predictions, and more

Episode Date: December 30, 2022

Max, Corey, and FloHockey’s Chris Peters are back for the final Prospect Series episode of 2022 to discuss Alexis Lafrenière’s healthy scratch for the New York Rangers on Thursday night, Canada losing their opening WJC game against Czechia, Connor Bedard’s outlandish 14 points over the first 3 games of the tournament, a chaotic Group B still very much up for grabs, “worry meter” for USA and Canada, revised predictions, and more.Subscribe to The Athletic Hockey Show on YouTube: http://youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowRight now through 12/31, you can get a 1-year subscription to The Athletic for just $1 a month when you visit http://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody. Max Boltman here alongside Corey Pranman and Chris Peters of Flow Hockey for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show's Prospect Series. We're going to talk about the World Juniors, which has been off to a very fun start. A lot of excitement, especially for the early tournament, pool play games. But I want to start, gentlemen, with a little tidbit out of New York, Alexei Lafranier, a healthy scratch in New York. a really interesting situation they're developing for the former first overall pick. And I want to

bring in our producer here as we get started. Chris Flannery follows the Rangers very closely. And Arthur Stapel had a really good article on this yesterday in the athletic. You know, Gerard Gallant talking about kind of a potential wake-up call for Alexei Lafranier. And I just wonder in year three, Chris, does this surprise you at all that it's gotten to this point? I mean, I guess it's a little bit surprising just that. in the sense that you'd think that maybe he would have found his game and be able to be more consistent on a night-to-night basis. It's a tough situation because he's only playing 15 minutes a night. He's not getting much power play time, if any. The Rangers number one unit is always

out there. He's shooting 8%, which is down from the 17s, which is where he's been shooting in the first two seasons of his career. So, you know, those are factors. I think, you know, the word that's come up a bunch is consistency. And I think that's the trinity. And I think that's the truth. I think night to night, you're not seeing, um, not even just the results, but not necessarily the same effort, which you have seen from Philippaedal who's taken a step forward. Capo Kako is now playing on the top line. He's shown, even if he's not scoring, he's, he's able to, you know, maintain a good defensive responsibility, dig pucks out of the corners and, and be productive in that way. So I think, you know, I think Lafranier is, is still struggling to find

basically what his identity is in the league, you know, is he a playmaker? Is he a guy that, plays below the hash marks. He's a guy that plays in front of the net. You know, is he going to score? So, you know, I think these are all things. And I think there's defensive lapses as well. So, you know, there's a few factors there. He was scratched last season when he came back.

He had a couple of goals or he scored three goals over four games when he came back. So, you know, I can understand the logic of taking him out of the lineup. Plus, the Rangers were winning a lot of games going into the break. Coming out of the break, they had a rough game against the Capitals. So I think Gerard Gallant decided to use that as an opportunity to shake things up and maybe send a message there. Well, you use that word identity and maybe not having that. There were some really interesting quotes in the Arthur Staple article on that very topic. I mean, he talked to a pro scout, a front office member.

But one of the scout comments was he just doesn't seem to accomplish much out there without the puck, with or without the puck, actually. It's hard to find him out there. Like, you know, it's obviously given the pedigree of Alexei Lafronier, these are surprising things to hear. But Corey, I'm especially surprised by considering we seem to have see him take this step in the playoffs last year. We seem to be seeing him turn a corner in the hardest style of hockey. And then to go a few months later and be hearing these quotes about, you know, not being able to recognize him out there. It's shocking a little bit.

Yeah. And I'm not sure he's been invisible in his NHL games. but I would be fair to say in his three NHL seasons, you have not seen a lot of progress. It feels like it's the same player you're seeing year after year after year. I was talking about this with Arthur, you know, while he was in the process of writing that article. And I think one thing's been striking with Alexi is when he was a junior,

I'm sure Chris contested this too, I thought his compete was a big asset. This was a guy who I thought was very engaged night and night out. He was physical. He gave a really good effort every day. night. And I feel like in the NHL, you see the skill, you see the offensive hockey sense, but you have not seen, especially given he's not a great skater, you have not seen that that high level effort that you saw in the playoffs consistently every night. And I want to

make sure we're not kind of killing this guy too much. Yes, he's not doing, I think everything's about relative expectations, right? Like we expected him to be at least by the third year in the NHL, at least a, maybe not like a star, but at least an impactful player, a legitimate top six borderline, at least top line caliber winger. And he hasn't been that yet. But you look at some other young players in the league who his scoring is comparable to. And it's a lot of guys who were saying very positive things about his scoring is comparable to Seth Jarvis. It's comparable to White Johnston. It's comparable to Jack Quinn. It's not far behind Lucas Raymond. You know, and so like you don't want to, I think.

Hill, a 21-year-old too much, who's still been a legitimate middle-six-winger in the National Hockey League, and what we still believe has a ton of skill. But there's also, I think, legitimate criticisms of his pace, of his consistency to be had. I do think a lot of it just comes back to the one next to his name, and whether it's fair to make that distinction for the one versus the four versus the 13, whatever it may be. I do think that that's what it comes down to. but we have to take this to the place that it is logically going to go here, and that is what do you think the odds are that we're going to see an Alexei Lafranier trade, Chris?

Man, I mean, I think it's it would be tough to do, but I don't think it's out of the question at this point. I think that there's a chance that, you know, maybe this isn't the right fit for him. I think that's the other thing. Situational, you know, it hasn't been the best place for a number one to go into. You look at a guy like Jack Hughes. He goes to New Jersey. They're kind of in rebuild mode. They have more opportunities.

They have more leeway for him. He's got more opportunities to make the mistakes and to take his time. And he's developed pretty well. And, you know, they spend a lot of time and focused on him. They're different players. And, you know, but the only similarity really being that they had a number one, they're a number one overall pick. But the situation that Lefrenier came into was far different than the one that Hughes came into.

I think the other thing that's important to note to in the entire Alexei Lefranier kind of scope is, that he of all the number one picks that we've had, no one has had an entry into the NHL like him where his first season was cut off and his next season started late. And there was, you know, a huge gap of months in between where he didn't play hockey. And then all of a sudden he's they try to get him up to speed. So he's been in a weird position developmentally for some time now. And there has been no, with the Rangers being a competitive team, there's been no way to really correct it without, you know, maybe sending him somewhere else. So that's where all of a sudden you say, okay, well, his value is dropping as a trade asset.

But I think there's a lot of teams out there that are in a different situation than the Rangers that would gladly take an Alexei Lafranier, that would gladly pay some, not necessarily significant earth-shattering assets, but that would trade assets for him and give him the right opportunity developmentally. You know, the other thing, too, is when you're a number one pick, It seems like there's just no, like it's impossible to send them to the AHA. I mean, you know, in certain years, his junior eligibility wouldn't have allowed that. But, you know, we look at Quentin Byfield right now, who was picked right after Alexia Lafranier.

What is in the HL and he's thriving in that environment. He's getting his game back together. He's in the NHL right now. Well, he was, but he was in the HAL where they allowed him to get his, his game back. and now he gets the recall. The reset is, you know, I think there are a lot of teams that are reluctant to provide that reset. And, you know, I don't know if that's necessarily what Alexei Lefranier needs. Maybe it is a change of scenery.

But as of right now, like as Corey said, we are not seeing progress. That is the scariest part about this is that we're not seeing a player that is, it is progressing at a level that you would expect someone that was so good as a junior player. So, you know, that was, that was definitely, you know, I think something for him to, you know, try to work on. I just, I just don't know where they go next and maybe the trade is the best path forward for both parties. And one last point on Alexi is just in terms of whether he stays or goes, I think a lot of things have to be resolved this summer because Lefrenier needs a second contract. And they are going to pay Keandre Miller a lot of money this summer. So we'll see whether they can even make that work or not.

I sometimes think we tend to jump to the trade button too quickly. I mean, it was not that long ago that Capocaco was a scratch and people were talking about trade happened there. And he's playing very well right now. And that's settled down, right? So I'm not going to say that that's an inevitable outcome. I do think our listeners would show up at my front door if I didn't float it to you guys. Alexei LaFranier for Patrick Cain, who says no. it's an expiring deal yeah yeah i i gotta think that's a tough one i don't know the answer to that

question is be quite honest yeah no it's tough the one thing with the rangers too is if they had like some really good like young wingers pushing up it would make this a little easier but that vatali cravsov's not going well either it makes it a little bit more difficult i think i think the rangers say no just personally but i might be stupid of me i i think they think they say no too just because it's an expiring contract but maybe we see where they are with the trade deadlines i don't think the rangers look like a true true contender right now like we thought they would be yep i'm not sure they're the team in the best position to make that deal but i i understand that's a common place people are projecting king to land yeah and i think Chicago says no and and i

think they do because i think that the package that they probably are going to be able to get is going to include more future assets, which I think they're more interested in. That's fair. Yeah, because you have a player that you have to rebuild on top of rebuilding your team. I don't think there are, I don't think there again more than that.

They were for expiring Kane. For a team that's contending or former consmite winner, absolutely they would. Well, more just depends, right, on what you view Alexei Lafranierrez, right? Like, I mean, you look at the Claude Giroux package that Ottawa got.

Like, is that more than, Alexei Lefrenier at this point value-wise? I still think Lefrenier would would have a lot of value in the open market even though he's not really doing that well. I still think there will be somebody out there who will believe in him. I love it. Let's keep this energy

for the rest of the show here as we peel back off into World Junior Territory. And we got to start with Team Canada, which I feel like we could take about four different directions already here. They start the tournament with a, I'm not going to call it a shocking loss of the checks because Chris was evangelizing about the check team and how they could surprise somebody.

But we did not expect to see this Canada team really particularly challenged in this tournament and they dropped their opening game. We expect what follows, which is two resounding response wins. But in those wins, Connor Bedard puts up 13 points in those two games. Let's start with the upset loss. And we will get back to Badaard, I promise. Corey, what was your first reaction as you watched Chequia upset Team Canada? You know, we kind of talked early on what the path to a Canada loss would be in the tournament.

Now, my just not a loss in the metal round. It's not only in the round robin. But the loss would probably be in the goaltending duel that Canada would not get the saves that they need. And they would probably need another goalie to play really well, which is what happened. Thomas Sukarnik played very well in that game for Czech. and Benjamin Goddrow did not play well for Kenneth. But that's not the whole story of that game. It wasn't like the possession was 80-20 and and the,

and the, and the, and the, and the mechanic was just playing out of his mind, even though he did play very well. I think there were a lot of issues that, that the Canadian team showed that they weren't getting a lot of even strength pushed from a lot of their lines. That power play won, the power play with Bedard, Shane Wright, Dylan Gentler, Olenzel, Wager, and Brennan Offman have been excellent when they've been on the ice.

But in that game, I thought a lot of their lines struggle to get things going at even strength. They were not getting a lot of help from their blue line. I think you look at that blue line right now, other than, you know, they have the three skilled puck movers in Zellweger, Brian Clark, and Kevin Kortinski. But they've got a lot of guys back there who don't really move the puck all that well. And I thought that showed up in that game. I thought there, again, the lack of even strength from the four lines showed up in that game. And I thought, you know, the strength of Chequia as well.

showed in that game. We talked about how good they are. I don't think we maybe talk about how we kind of mentioned in the last episode how good David Eurcheck has been in the season. But he's really showing it in this tournament. Like, man, that guy looks like a really good defenseman right now. He is a big, highly, highly skilled defenseman who competes at a very high level. And he has been making a lot happen out there for Chekia. And as well as Stanislav's spousal, and I think you can argue those two have been two of the three. of the best three to four defensemen so far in this tournament. Absolutely, they have.

And that's been a big difference-making factor for them. Chequia obviously falls in a close, hard-fought game to Sweden on Thursday. Still a very real possibility that they're going to come out on top of this group, depending on what happens between Sweden and Canada. So that's been a huge story throughout the tournament, too. We're going to circle back on that. I want to go now, Chris, to kind of what you saw in the response from Canada since the Chechia loss. obviously, I think we got to start with Connor Bedard.

And I know people are going to immediately point to the competition. But to see 13 points in two World Junior games, what's your reaction to that? Yeah, if it was so easy, everybody would do it. You know, like, I mean, like, that's the thing is, like, really, you know, to see seven points in a single game and it wasn't even like it was Connor Badard going hard the whole time. You know, he was just basically putting pucks in good places and they were going in. You know, like, it was just, it was really just a continual. I mean, his shot, obviously, he had some really nice goals. And, you know, we saw that again.

And just every time he touched the puck, you know, something positive was happening. You know, even against Austria, there was one moment where he lost the puck and then he back checked, got it back, took the guy off the puck with his body and then went back the other way. You know, so he's showing effort off the puck as well. You know, I think that in those response games, you want to see your best players take it upon themselves to up their level. and I think that Connor Bedard did that. He was their best player against Chequia. He was the guy that was zooming around, still giving them a chance. And, you know, I think almost at that point, he was trying to almost do too much,

but still at the same time, he was the only guy really going. And so he was going well there. And then we just see that continue on. To have 13 points in two games is just absurd regardless of the competition. I mean, you know, we're starting to talk about he's already close to the Canadian all-time scoring record. you know, he sets, ties the single, single game record with Dave Anderchuk and Gabriel Bork, which is fun. You know, so, you know, there's a lot of, there's a lot of just real positive

things coming out of that. But I think the most important thing is that you see that Conor Medard is, last, you know, in the summer, he was kind of, you know, a secondary player. He was still very important, but he, you know, he moved down the lineup and wasn't necessarily, you know, scoring at this kind of level. And then he comes here and he's like, well, this is my team now. And I'm going to take it upon myself to go hard. And I mean, he's special. I mean, there's just no question about it.

He's an offensively intelligent player. He has the hand skills to execute at a high, high level. And he is just taking his game to another level and now, you know, has a real honest shot at you're rewriting some of the Canadian record books here in terms of single tournament scoring. A little bit of an asterisk next to those record books, though, because he gets the extra two games and the extra Yeah, I'm not even counting.

I mean, yeah, that's kind of ridiculous. But I say he's got, you know, the Eberley record thing, he's still got two more games before he gets to the 12. But we're not going to double up the games from the previous tournament. I don't think that that's the right way to account for this. Agreed.

That's how they are doing it, whether you agree or not. And I think what's been interesting from, given the unique circumstances of what happened last summer with the World Juniors is you really get to see how much that one age group makes a difference. We're talking about a tournament that's only happening a couple of months later

and you just look how much better Baddard has been in this tournament versus the last one. Look at much better Dalboard Dvorsky has been at this tournament

versus the last one. You look much better Charlie Stramel has been at this tournament versus the last one I mean where he barely even played. I don't even think did he play one game even, Chris?

You played one. Yeah, you know, and he was a periphery player in that game. You know, there's just so much of a difference that one age group makes when trying to evaluate players.

And I think it's why you want to make sure you can contact 17 versus 18 versus 19 year olds in this tournament. All right, gentlemen, let's pick up with Group B here, which has turned into a little bit of a, maybe the exciting, well, I guess both groups have been exciting, but there's a little bit of a free-for-all going on in Group B.

Team USA, just like Canada, takes an early upset loss to Slovakia. Finland, in early story, we could even probably bring the Swiss into this conversation here, Chris, let's start with you here. What's the first thing that kind of peaks your attention when you look at the table here for group B sitting with one game left in pool play? The thing that immediately jumps out is that you've got four teams that still have an opportunity to win the group, you know, going into New Year's Day, including Switzerland, which beat Finland in overtime in the first game. And I think, you know, even though Finland has won their next two games looked better against Slovakia, you know, only was okay against Lopje,

that's a team that still hasn't really discovered their identity. The same thing is true of the U.S. They haven't necessarily played their best game yet. They did have a better game against Switzerland. So the group is kind of eating itself a little bit right now, where everybody's kind of beaten everybody. Slovakia has got a big game. You know, the day that we're recording this,

they've got a big game against Latvia. And then all of a sudden, you know, that could throw things through a loop too because Latvia has been just on the cusp. They've been close. They almost beat Switzerland. You know, there was a real opportunity for them to kind of make it through here. but, you know, it's going to be interesting to see, you know, USA can win the group by just beating,

beating Finland in regulation. So, yeah, it is a very, it is a very challenging kind of tournament to get a handle on because enough teams have been good enough to beat the good teams. You know, we talked a lot about how Russia wasn't here and that kind of drops the parody among the top teams. Well, all of a sudden, Czechia and Slovakia have come in and made it a much more competitive tournament. And so, you know, Slovakia was the better team against the U.S.

hands down in that win. And it was surprising in that, you know, I think that the U.S. team on paper had more forward depth, had, you know, better speed, all these different things. It didn't matter. You know, in Slovakia played really well. And you've got guys like Simon Nemich and Delybord-Divorski who have really played well. So I think both groups have shown that this is a year where there's a lot more parity.

The goaltending, as we've seen, is not amazing for any one team. I mean, you know, the Czechia's gotten good goaltending for the most part. You know, Slovakia's had some good moments. Sweden's gotten some good moments. But beyond that, there have been a lot of like, I don't know. You know, so that's kind of an interesting dynamic to this tournament as well. But I really think that the way that Group B is setting up, it makes for a great New Year's Eve. It makes for, you know, a very interesting bracket once we get to the quarterfinals.

And on both sides, everything is still to be decided. That's kind of how you hope it works out in the preliminary round, but it's so rarely does. Yeah, one of my conclusions here is that one of the quickest ways to an exciting tournament is an unpredictable goaltending, we're going to call it, because you really do feel right now, like outside of maybe one or two of these games, you could be seeing anything happen on a given occasion. Let's go to you here, Corey, on Team USA, in net. I mean, where are you at through three games for Team USA? We knew it was a question coming in. We know they dropped the game. You know, has it been I don't imagine any of your concerns have been resolved on that point.

I think with Team USA, you kind of knew their goaltending was going to be a problem coming into the tournament. In the pre-tournament, I thought Trey Augustine's game against Finland was just okay. Doesn't look all that convincing that we get into the actual tournament, Cade and Barrico doesn't play very well in that upset loss against Slovakia. They go back to Augustine, the game versus Switzerland, where I thought he was solid. They didn't have to make spectacular saves, but he made the saves he needed to make, didn't let in any goals that he shouldn't have. So I think right now, it looks like this is Augustine's net right now.

But if USA is going to win this tournament is not going to be because of their goal tending, I think they're going to need to just have to, they're going to have to control the even strength play, limit the power plays the opponents get. I don't know if you can lean on a 17-year-old goalie to win you this tournament. Chris, you were talking a second ago about, you know, this Team USA Slovakia game and how Slovakia kind of just beat them. I think one of the conclusions people are going to immediately go to is kind of this roster build that Team USA went with that emphasizes a lot of these kind of smaller puck moving deed. Does that play a role in this for you or is this something independent of that?

No, I think it does, absolutely, because I think there were a couple of goals where they allowed guys to get to the middle too easily. There were a lot of turnovers. The thing was is that if you're going to build a team based on puck moving, they got to move pucks and they were brutal at that against Slovakia. I mean, there were turnovers all over the place. It led to penalties against. It led to goals against. Their transition game was non-existent. They weren't able to ever put Slovakia on their back foot because they were turning

pucks over through the neutral zone too much. And so, you know, Rand Peknold said, we played too loose. We want to try and, you know, simplify. And I think that they did that, you know, they did that against Switzerland. They didn't allow more through the middle. They controlled the puck more. This is a team that with a smaller defense corps, they have to win the possession battle. They have to be the team that has the puck.

They have to be on the offensive. Sometimes that's going to be their best defense because when they play against bigger teams and bigger, you know, bigger forwards, it's going to be a lot harder for them to cut off the middle of the ice. So the best defense is to have the puck and to not give it away so much. So we'll have to see. But I think that the roster build as well, like, you know, the other thing was is that the U.S. wasn't getting enough out of their forwards in that either. They weren't necessarily helping themselves.

You know, they still haven't really gotten their second. line going very well. The third line got going against Switzerland. The top line got going against Switzerland, you know, but now you got to do it against the big teams. And against Finland, that should be the good test for them to figure out, you know, what exactly they have. I feel like that top line's been going, but they just haven't been finishing.

And obviously that's very important in a junior tournament. Like that top line and let's say Luke Hughes, they were good. Their top players have been good, those first two games. But they need to, for them to be successful in the term, they need them to be. consistently impactful, and they weren't until Switzerland. They've gotten a boost from Tyler Boucher, who's picked up a few goals so far early in this tournament. I think he's been kind of maybe the main source of secondary offense for them.

He's looked really good, I think. It's not just the goals. I think you're looking at a guy who's playing with pace. He's a guy who's able to, you know, kind of see skating well. He's looked really engaged. He's creating offense at even strength. I mean, this looks like a really good. player right now. And if we're talking about not just for USA terms of his pro potential,

like I'm watching a middle six NHL winger right now when I'm watching Tyler Boucher at this tournament. Yeah, this is probably, I think the first couple of games here has been some of the best hockey I've seen him play in the last few years. And I mean, even going back to his NTP days before he got hurt, you know, he would make you notice him every single game. He'd do something that would make you notice them. And I think in this tournament in particular, I've just been really impressed with the, Corey mentioned it, the pace that he's playing with. He's putting pressure on the opposing team. He's closing on pucks. He's getting to the net front. He's disrupting. And he's also playing pretty disciplined. He has taken a couple of penalties, but their penalties not out of,

you know, lack of discipline. It's usually like, you know, a misplaced stick or something like that. It's really not the, you know, like he hasn't really cost them in that regard, which I know was a concern coming in because he plays on the edge a lot. But I think that this has been a huge step for him for his confidence, for the way, what he can be at the pro level, as Corey said. And just, you know, this is a guy that's really starting to turn the corner here developmentally after going through injuries and different things like that. He's playing consistently. So I think we're, we're getting a chance to see the real Tyler Boucher here. If I had told you three games into the tournament that the number four, USA 4 and Ice Time would have been Charlie Stramel, what would you

have said? I would have said you're crazy. But you know, the, so Charlie Stramel has been team USA's primary penalty killer. The fourth line has been one of their most consistently threatening lines. Stramel and Gavin Brindley together has been a match made in heaven. You got Brinley to be the guy that just all over the ice. He got Stramel to play a much more conservative. He's played conservative for his style, but he's making plays with the puck. He's getting pucks into the zone. He's playing physically. It's great. He looks night and day from the guy at Wisconsin right now. Agreed completely. And I think part of it is too, we've talked about this with Charlie Strammel. This is more of a draft discussion, but he's not necessarily going to be a driver. He's not a

drive a play driving center but if you put him with complimentary players that can can help that he looks a lot better and i think that that's what we're seeing here in this in this uh in this tournament another of my reactions had you told me that about charlie stramelcross is is that maybe a little bit of surprise that he managed to stay out of the penalty box to rack up that many minutes he did he's taken obviously yet he had the one on the trip the other day but that he's another player who plays i don't even know if we could say on the edge like he plays at the edge, right, of his game. Yeah, and sometimes he does get himself into trouble unnecessarily,

and that's something he has to clean up. But I definitely think that he's played just a really smart hockey. I've really liked his game throughout. And coming into this tournament, he was on the bubble, very much on the bubble. He was not a guarantee to make this team. He pushed guys out with his play. I think his play in the pre-tournament solidified his place on this roster. I think it went all the way down to that, to the white.

there. And he ends up, you know, being one of their best players in the pre-tournament. And now he's been one of their best players in the tournament. It's great to see because I think this is the guy that we believed he could be. Throughout this entire season, we haven't necessarily seen it at Wisconsin. He doesn't have necessarily the supporting cast to support that. But at the same time, I mean, yeah, this is, this is Charlie Stramel taking a big step here. And I, I, for one, I'm really excited to see it because I've believed in the player from the beginning. All right. Let's go to the worry meter here on these two teams because I think, you see an early loss in pool play. That's the logical question here. Who are you more confident in at this stage?

What's the worry meter for both of these two teams? Let's say out of five for USA and Canada. Corey, we'll start with you. I don't think the worry for Canada is too high. I think maybe, you know, maybe somewhere between a two to a three maybe. I think it's because you can see there's some chinks in the armor there that could be exposed. And I don't think they're a perfect team at even strength, but this is still the clear favorite. I would still bet on them on any other team in the tournament right now, and I think they're still in a very good spot, especially if Thomas Millich is the guy and holds his own going forward there into the metal round.

For USA, it's a little bit higher, but we kind of knew USA wasn't the most threatening US junior team we've ever seen before. I'd say they're closer to a four to a five. I think the reasons being is that they have a couple of guys on this team that are really dangerous. You know, Kooley, Gochier, Hughes, even snugger roads look really good in this tournament. But the lack of depth there, I think, is going to hurt them in the really important games. It doesn't mean they can't win those games, but they're going to need those top players to be outstanding to win those games. Yeah, and I would say, I would say for sure USA's worry meter has to be still at a five.

Because even against Switzerland, they had a really slow start. They didn't necessarily have their, like, and that's been a consistent thing, not starting the game very well against teams like Czechia, Sweden, Canada, even Finland tomorrow. That's, that's, that can't happen because then all of a sudden the game gets away from you and you, and you're already, you're chasing it the rest of the way. You know, the goal-tending situation, maybe you feel better now that Trey Augustine had a good game against Switzerland. But what, you know, we don't know who's going to start against Finland yet. It could be Caden Embarico again.

And then all of a sudden, you know, what do we do with that? We'll have to wait and see. But I think there's, you know, for the U.S., the worry meters is definitely higher because, you know, they could do it against Switzerland. But, you know, it's really struggled to do against Slovakia. Now they've got to prove they can do it against Finland. We'll see after that Finland game, that'll be a much better barometer for where they're going. so we'll have a better idea after that. As for Canada, my main concern at this point is, you know,

you have that opening loss, then you have two immediate, just blowout games where now, and now you've got to get ready for a Swedish team that just beat that that check team that beat you. I do think Canada's better than that Swedish team, but at the same time, you know, Carl Lindbaum's been amazing in net. He's probably been the best goalie in this tournament so far.

So, you know, that's the other thing. But yeah, so I would say for me, the worry meter for Canada is simply, you know, at a three, I think there are other teams, you know, I look at Chequia, I look at Sweden. I mean, even the U.S., I think those are all teams that are gold medal threats here. You know, and, you know, I still can't believe that we're saying Chequy is a gold medal threat, but they legitimately are. They outplayed Sweden in the game that they lost, too. So I think that the worry, you know, it's also on the who else is here? There are a number of threats that you have to be aware of now. you didn't mention Finland there and I don't fault you for now I'm mentioning Finland because I think when you watch this Finnish team right now you see they have good players it's a good team but man it's really tough to see their path to a gold medal it is it is

because I think that the the big thing for me is this doesn't feel like your typical finish team that's going to be you know so hard to play against I mean Latvia didn't did gave him a real good push in that game. And actually at various points, we're out shooting them and out playing them. I think the decor is a huge concern. And I think it is for Sweden as well, you know, and the U.S. I think there are, unless you're Czech or Canada and even Canada, as you mentioned, there's still some concerns there on their back end, you know, that you don't necessarily have the strongest of decors and, you know, guys that you can really trust in a variety of situations. So, yeah, but it's crazy. Yeah, with due respect to

Hyze Vilan and Alexei Hemel-Sahome, they're both good young players, good prospect, but they're not supposed to be, they're not number one defensemen on gold medal winning teams that you have, that you think of. And with Sweden, I think the draft eligible Sandine Palika has been among their ice time leaders so far through the first few games. And he's really, deservingly so. No, no, no, he's played very well and helped his draft stock. It looks like a good player, but that's probably, you don't want to see a 17 old defenseman being leaned on. much in an ideal world and they wouldn't be if Havlin's Salmanson were healthy.

But yeah, with this finish team, again, they have good players. Oliver Caputon has played well. Yol Kimmelis played well. That second line with Yanni Neiman and Nico Houtan have played well. They have good players, but it's hard to see the high-end talent on this team that's going to rise to the occasion in those really difficult medal round games. Let's spend just a minute here on the team that is technically, as we sit, here in record in first place, that being Sweden.

Yeah, I know you guys are talking about a couple of the players here in Lindbaum and Sandian Pelica, but Corey, we said coming into this tournament, it's going to be kind of the high level forwards who set the tone for this team. I think it's fair to say that they've done that in the early going. Who are the one or two that have stood out to you the most so far? I don't think there's been one or two that have stood out. I think it's been just more of a collective effort. Honestly, if we had to pick one, it would have been the draft eligible, Liel Carlson,

was probably been the best. He didn't play in their last game because he was feeling under the weather. But I think generally it's been a group ever. I don't think anybody has really stood out. I said Carlson's played well. The San Jose picked Philip Bstad has played well. Noah O'Slin from the Buffalo pick has been solid. Isaac Rosen.

Also, the Buffalo pick has been good. You know, Liesel had his moments for his injury in the previous game. But I don't think any of them individually have really like stood out and been one of the better forwards in the tournament by any means. And I think, so I'm not sure where I feel, and I don't either right now is pro prospect, still trying to fill them out. Although I think in general, though,

I think if you're looking from just like a pro potential type of perspective, I think B-STAT's been the most intriguing when you look at a big center who can skate like him and showing offense in the SHL and now with the junior team, he's a guy I'm really intrigued by right now. But overall, I don't, I think if you had to do an all tournament team right now, Chris, I think Lindbaum's in the mix for that, but I don't know if any of their skaters are in the mix for that right now.

Yeah, maybe not. I mean, I think Ludwig Jansen on D has been an impactful player, but I mean, there's just been. Yeah, but he wouldn't be the all tournament team, though. No, but he is leading his team and scoring. That's just. But he wouldn't be on the all tournament team. He might be.

No, he would not be. Oh, he might be. Do you know who votes on these? I understand, but I feel like people... Idiots like us. Yeah. So anyway, but yes, I mean, would he be, he wouldn't be on my all tournament team, just to make your point for you. But yeah, but I mean, like, you know, in terms of what Sweden has done as a group, like, you know, I agree with Corey where it's, it's really, it's been by committee because you look at it, they're not among the top scorers in the tournament.

They are getting scoring from all four lines. And then, yeah, I mean, outside of that, we really, you know, they only scored one goal against Germany. You know, I mean, it's not like, it's not like they've been lighting the world on fire. They did have a good game against Chequia, but I thought Chequia was the better team in that game, deserved a better result. But Lindbaum was the difference. And so that's the guy that I think is, the reason that Sweden has a chance is because their goaltender has been among the best in this tournament so far. And that's, that's where I think they're really, that's where the entire thing is at. So, yeah.

All right, just so we don't neglect anybody here, Corey. I want to do a little bit of a roundup on some of the teams we didn't spend quite as much time on here. Anybody from kind of Switzerland, Austria, Slovakia that we haven't maybe given enough attention to in the early going? Well, the reason why I was harping on Chris so much before about jansen being on the all-turman team, because I think not only have you had those two defensemen in Czechia and suppose when your check would have been so good, or the Canadian defenseman like a Zelle Wagger or Luke Hughes in the United States. But I think you can argue Leon Bischel has been one of the very best defensemen in this tournament so far. He wasn't as good against the United States, but in those first two games,

particularly in Switzerland's upset win against Finland, he was really good. And those first two games, he looked like an impactful defender with, you know, such a great skating ability for his size. He's physical. And the offense is never going to get you super excited. but he has the two points, both points coming at critical moments in those games. And I think in general, he looks like a guy who you can envision becoming a top four defenseman in the National Hockey League. Yeah, yeah.

And I mean, to Corey's point, he's not going to make the all tournament team because they're not going to get out of the quarterfinals. So there's also that. So, but, but yeah, but I mean, you know, he has been very good. Do you think that's for sure? I don't know. They could get like a, they can get maybe a, an easier, well, I guess they could get Canada theoretically in the quarterfinals.

I don't think, I mean, they almost lost to Latvia. They were two minutes away from losing. There's a path where they play Germany. Yeah, that's true, too. So it's possible, but I doubt it. So anyway, you know, but I think of the guys that I've seen here on this side of the bracket in terms of the defenseman, Luke, you know, I'm in Moncton right now. And so, you know, seeing Luke Hughes and, you know,

clearly Leon Bixel is the next best guy here on the blue line in terms of how he's played. Although, you know, I've also seen, you know, Seymone Nemich has been very good. And so as Maxime Sturbach, who's been very good for Slovakia, not all tournament caliber at this point, but I think Nemich is definitely in the mix for that if they can get out of the quarterfinal as well. But yeah, I mean, it's been amazing to kind of see Leon Bischel just do what he did against Finland. And then also how important he was against Latvia in a game where the Swiss were on the brink of losing and how many big plays he made in that game. So he does look every bit like the top four defenseman, the kind of guy that you hope that you draft and with that size and his skating ability. It's just, it is remarkable to watch in person because you're not used to seeing a human that big move that smoothly.

And it's, it's really impressive to watch. What have you thought of an image so far? Up and down, you know, I think against Finland, not good. And against the U.S., much better. You know, I think he, you know, he had three assists in that game. And then he had, you know, I think he's played well. I'm really looking forward to seeing him the rest of the way here. They've got some big games coming up.

he, you know, can he take a little more charge, be a little bit more engaged offensively. But I mean, even at, even at times against the U.S., I thought, you know, Maxime Sturback was the guy I noticed even more, not to say that I think he's a better prospect, but I just think in that particular game, he was impacting the game defensively a lot more. Is it fair to say Sturback has looked better here than he has in the U.S. HL? 100%. Absolutely has. And I think he's helping himself quite a bit by showing that he can defend against the elite.

players that he can that he can play with play at the pace of of the world juniors and then also you know make an impact on on the offensive blue line too he's he had some opportunities he had some chances to develop so to put up some points um you know and made some nice plays the offensive blue line so we're seeing a lot more from him here I feel than than we've seen so far and I think he's still he's he struggled to adjust to the ush-h-l and the north american game a little bit but I think we're you know this this could be a springboard for him right as I think it's also fair to say that Albor Dvorsov, look better here than he has in Sweden. 100%. Yeah, he has been awesome. I mean, we've talked about him before. We've had, you know,

I was telling you, I was worried about his overall progression. You know, I think you look at last summer to this tournament in terms of the World Junior performance, he's a guy that's driving his line. He's dictating. He's playing very well. He's making smart plays. He's playing really well defensively, too. He's been really, he's been good off the puck. I mean, we're seeing a lot of of real quality plays overall from Divorsi in this tournament. Yeah, no, I think you guys who's helping himself. I can't sit here today and tell you he's 100% going to be a top 10 pick. I would not say that.

But I think he's in that range of the draft. Maybe he's 8, maybe he's 11, maybe he's 12. Depends where you feel about him. But he's helped himself, I think, in this tournament. And if there was some healing coming out of the stock, I think that's ending right now. Corey, you talk coming into this tournament about how tough it's going to be to judge

someone like David Reinbacher based on, you know, the Austrian circumstances around him. Where are you at on that three games in? I mean, pretty much what you just said. It's been really difficult to judge a guy when his team's getting outshot 50 to 5. But there's been moments where you watch him where you see the tools.

Even in the game against Canada in that first period where they were kind of holding their own for at least 10, 15 minutes, He was making some plays and making some stops where you were being really intrigued. This is not a good evaluation environment. The evaluation environment for him is going to be in the NLA and potentially a world championships for him in the spring. We'll have better players to play with.

But I think you still see a 6-2 defenseman who can skate, who are showing some creativity and skill and instincts with the puck. And I think that toolkit makes him highly intrigued from an adult perspective. this is going to be a first round pick in next year's draft. I don't know where it is yet, but I think you still, if you believe in the player, you haven't seen anything yet to make you not believe in him. It's just you kind of knew what was coming in the tournament. Marco Casper kind of didn't do much in the tournament either last year in very similar circumstances.

All right. Well, I guess the only logical place to go from here, guys, is to revise our predictions, which, you know, when we make him at the start of the tournament, we do it without fully knowing how the groups are going to shake out. which sets up the bracket, right? You can pick a team to go gold and another team to go silver and they meet in the semis and it becomes impossible. So with how things stand today, anybody want to revise their medal predictions or I suppose their all tournament team predictions. I certainly have to revise my tournament team, which did not have Connor Pardard on it, swing and a miss.

But any others that we want to make? I had Finland as my bronze. I would upgrade that now to check you. Okay. But just way to do the way the crossover will work, even though I think Czechia, I think could very well win the group and Canada would have to cross over with somebody else from the other group, maybe a top of a polling like Finland or USA. So I guess depending on which one that would really alter your projection a little bit,

depending on who wins that Finland USA game. I think USA wins that game. And for that reason, I would still have USA. going to the gold medal game and losing to Canada and check as the bronze. But obviously, there's so many scenarios out there that that could change. I think those are the three top teams, though, in some order. Yeah. I agree too.

I mean, and if we were to power rank them right now, honestly, it'd be Czechia, one, Canada, two, USA three. But in an actual gold medal. Sweden doesn't get any love in there for you. No. You think power ranking in terms of their rosters, you think Czech is better than Canada? They just beat them. Yeah, that's bullshit.

Come on. Did they not just beat them? No, of course, Canada's better on paper. Are you kidding me? I mean, of course they're better. But at the same time, I think that the Czechs have a team that's good enough to beat them because they did. And then I think they can again. I do think that the Czech blue line, to me, has been the best of the tournament so far.

And so there's that too. But I would say in terms of if we're repicking the medals, you know, I think Canada, I have Canada, then USA and then Czechia, which I had, you know, it's the reverse gold medal game because I have much less faith in, you know, basically what I've seen from the U.S. so far is that, you know, there's a lot to clean up for them to even be considered a legitimate metal contender at this point. Right. I mean, things can change so much depending on what happens on Year's Eve, right? You know, exactly. Yeah. I mean, if USA does not be Finland. And I think they need to beat them in regulation for.

Correct. Yeah. Oh, yeah. They have to beat them in regulation. Otherwise, if Slovakia wins out, they could win the group. They could win the group. Yeah. It's insane. It's really insane.

I mean, yeah. And Switzerland still has a chance to win the group too. So it's crazy. So all these male predictions are with many asterisks next to them, depending on how the quarterfinal scenarios play out. I've only been emboldened in Czechia for silver, and I'm looking at the bracket here, and if Finland does get it done, USA, to your point, there's some permutations here that have to play out the right way, but I could see a world where the U.S. doesn't meddle here based on what their path might be. Easily. So I don't know.

I mean, you can get USA Canada in the first round. There's a world where that is entirely possible here. Oh, yeah. Chris and I were just talking about that yesterday, how that would make for a very fun travel schedule for him. So if I'm going to make any update, I'm putting Sweden into the bronze over the U.S. here because I think that that's a very real possibility

based on the way the bracket's going to shake out. We'll see, but that'd be my update to make other than the whiff of the century, not having Connor Bedard on my old tournament prediction. Was that intentional or was that just negligence? It was a little intentional. I didn't want us to all have the same teams. And I also think sometimes, like, you know, we over, like, I think Stankov and Genther are two great.

I think they've been great players in this tournament, too. But, yeah, I think I probably slightly underrated how good Badaard was going to be. Stankovin especially has been really impressive. When they put those two together, it's really clicked. Now, mind you, it's games. I don't know how much we really learned about Canada in those last two games in Austria, games, Germany versus the game, games check, yeah. So, again, game versus Sweden and the middle round games will be the real test to see whether those line changes actually meant.

anything significant. But I do think Stan Coveman has looked really impressive. Yeah, absolutely. All right, that is going to do it for us today. Appreciate you guys checking in with us on this tournament, and we hope you do it again at the conclusion of the tournament in about a week. Thanks for listening, and you can follow us on YouTube at YouTube.com slash at the Athletic Hockey Show.

You can also catch more of Chris over at Flohockey and his podcast Talking Hockey Sense. And right now, you're going to have to hurry on this one, because I think you only got one day to do it, but you can get a one-year subscription to The Athletic for $1 a month when you visit theathletic.com slash hockey show. Do that quickly, and we'll talk to you soon.