The Athletic Hockey Show - Dark horse contenders in the Stanley Cup Playoffs

Episode Date: March 28, 2024

With three weeks left in the regular season, Hailey, Sean and guest co-host Dominik Luszczyszyn present their dark horses for the playoffs with the Kings, Predators, Lightning, Jets, Canucks and Maple Leafs having a shot of overtaking favorites in Dallas, Edmonton, New York, Carolina, Colorado, Florida and Boston and the lack of representation from the NHL's Metro Division who could be surprises in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. What's up, everybody? It's another Thursday edition of the Athletic Hockey Show with Haley and Sean. Max is on assignment. He's ditched us again this week. So we've brought in our friend Dom this week. Dom, you're not a backup plan, but it's really great to have you here as the like number two. It's great.

Yeah. What else? Hold on a second. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. You're not a backup plan, but you're in number two. What would you say a number two is? Seems like it's a backup situation. No, no, no, no.

That's knocking out of your mouth. I'm still up a starter. He's the one B option. No one was thinking that except for you, and now we're all thinking it, unfortunately, that I'm the backup plan. Nice way to feel welcomed on the show. Backup Max.

You're my number one. That's a good rule to have. Thank you, Sean. Let me just remind everyone that when the idea was pitched to Dom three years ago about doing, a podcast with me. He said every week, no, I don't think I can do that.

I didn't know Sean was involved. Yeah, and then and then he finds out that it would have been me and Sean, he was like, oh, well, I would have done that. So how am I supposed to feel? That part would have been fine. When this was pitched to me, I thought you were sick. I actually thought it was just going to be me and Sean. That's why I agreed.

I thought it was going to be a little boys hang out. And now you're here and it's like, oh, We're due for one of those. I have been on the IR, but I am trying to be a good teammate. And I'm showing up. And I'm just going to lob you guys up to talk for the next 45 minutes and not do much. So it really will be like a boys hang. And everyone who hates the sound of my voice is going to have a great time.

It's going to be a really good episode for everybody involved. They might have already turned it off. Yeah, I probably should just let Sean take the reins on this one. but there's so there's three weeks left in the season which is crazy but also not because the season is so long that it's like how are we still doing this baseball is starting today and the NHL is on game like 65 or whatever the Western playoff race is pretty much

locked up. Nobody wants to make the wild card in the east and so this week we're going to go over our dark horse contenders for the Stanley Cup since the season's almost wrapped up. Before we get to the dark horse picks, we need to establish the contenders.

So we went through with Dom two from each division. So in the Pacific, Edmonton and Vegas and the central Colorado, Dallas, the Metro, the Rangers and the Cains, the Atlantic, Florida, and Boston. There's not much debate here except for the Pacific choices. Dom, why is Vegas a contender over Vancouver, who has a 12-point lead in the standings as of Thursday morning? Yeah, as most people will know, I don't care too much about the standings. This is less to do with...

I'm sorry. That could have gone in a wildly different way. I don't care for the Vancouver Canucks. And then they just start... Honestly, where I thought it was going. Yeah, the dogs were like, keep it in check. It's now the time to fight. Ocean.

Ruby. Figure it out. Thank you. This should stay on the podcast. Yeah, absolutely don't cut this out. You've got a real Michael Vick situation over there. I just, oh, Sean, that is not funny. He would never.

It's just funny that Ruby spends most of her days, like, laying in the bathroom because she's, like, 11. And now she's like, I'm going to create such a toxic environment. I close the bathroom because she was being so anti-social. And now she's decided to be too social in the morning. Anyways, back to the Vancouver Canucks. Nothing against the Canucks who I think, maybe a little something. It's just that I think, Edminton. and Vegas are so strong,

I would probably take the Canucks over the Bruins, maybe even the Rangers as well. Like if they're in the east, they'd be a contender for sure. It's just that the West is so tough and especially their division. With Vegas, it's a big thing about who they've added at the deadline

with Hannafin, who's been amazing so far, and Thomas Hurdle, who hasn't even played yet, and I think we'll make a big impact come playoff time. So if you're trying to set a hierarchy in the Pacific, before the deadline, I think Edmonton and Vancouver is the picks

because Vegas wasn't playing that well. Now, with the additions Vegas has made, I think they are a stronger team than Vancouver on paper. Well, me and Mackin, you talked about this on Wednesday. We're at a point now where I think a lot of people

look at the predators, and we're going to talk about them in detail later on. But you just, you see the standings and it's like, what is, what exactly is going on with Vegas. I know they're, I know they're playing better and, and, and, and, and, and,

all that, but there's still, to me, there's a little bit too much projection there, like, where you're like, okay, if hurdle comes back, cool, if Anifan gets fully integrated, cool. And you, you can see why they are, why they have that kind of, that sheen on them, but at the

same time, it's just like, I'm, I don't know, I'm, I'm sorry, I'm starting to get nervous about them. Yeah, but there's, it might be me being a coward. There's, I don't think they're going to miss the, no, they're not but I just there's

some projection there before like I 86 points versus 98 points is and I know I'm trying not to be a standings guy here because I'm typically not but that it feels like a coin flip to me right in a lot of ways which is you know

coin came up Vegas on on Dom side of side of things that's fine I guess the way to look at it too it kind of brings into context I know the Kinnux like did some of their reeling and dealing well before the deadline in terms of bring in Zadorov and trading for Elias Linholm. But they didn't, they weren't active like at the deadline. And I know that was something Kinnucks fans were disappointed in is like, why didn't they do more on the day, especially when you saw the way that the rest of the West was beefing up. And it's not to say that Zadorav

and Linholm haven't been good additions to the lineup. But I do think when you look at Vancouver and Vegas and what those teams did to get better at the deadline. We can objectively look at Vegas and say that roster got better, as Dom said. And I think when you put into perspective as well that Vegas won the Stanley Cup last year, and if Vegas is going to stay in Wild Card 2 and the Canucks are going to stay in Pacific number one, like, is there a world in which those two play in the first round of the playoffs in Vegas wins? Like, can you see that happening? And I think that's maybe what makes Vegas the contender in Vancouver the Dark Horse because most people are going to put their money.

on the team that beefed up more and won the Stanley Cup last year. Yeah. Is that fair? If that's the first round series, like Vancouver is opening as the underdog in that series in the eyes of the eyes of the public. This is like honestly exactly. I can't remember if I talked about us with Dr.

and Sir Mac and do now because I've had the same conversation twice in the last like 48 hours. That framing is to me is like almost the best argument for. Thank you. For who is the, for who is the favorite and who is. the dark horse and that because that's completely true if april 20th rolls around and we end up getting Vegas versus Vancouver like no doubt that betting odds at least are going to are going to be

on or going to the lines are going to favor Vegas for sure so that's that's fine I'm just trying to head off the angry Canucks fans at the past because that's what I feel like I do I feel like I do most most weeks here I'm not trying to be a Vancouver apologize I get I get the logic But I think even Canucks fans would be worried about that first round matchup. Like that's, you would rather play the Preds. Like that's, that would be the better situation. My only point is that my, my only point is like a big part, a big reason that we like them so much is that, is that we look at what they are on paper. And we're like, Mark Stone's going to come back and he's going to be fine.

And hurdle is going to be ready to roll. And he's going to be integrated into the lineup the way that it needs to be, which that could all. I mean, that's probably more likely than not. if we're if we're being honest about it but that's still just like that's enough projection to make me feel a little bit squishy about saying you know about picking Vegas over Vancouver. I think it's interesting because not to be like the Vegas apologist because nobody no one wants to do that but I think even without Mark Stone and without um hurdle in that lineup they still have Jack Eichel as the one C and Noah Hanofin and Shafin and Shafin and Shafin.

Theodore. Like, they've got an unbelievable blue line. Their goal tending's been fine. And they've got Jack Eichol. So, like, they've got depth. 40 goal march or so. Yeah. Right. So they can, they can withstand some of that. And I know they're only in wildcard, too. So maybe they're notwithstanding it in a great way. But I still think the big, I think most of this comes from me thinking that the golden nights are scary. Like they're the boogeyman. Boogie man? Boogie man? How do you say that as an American? Boogie man? Dom, how do you say that? How do you say that? How do you? you say that. Boogie Man? Boogie Man. Okay, Pokemon. Bokeman cards. Sean and Max make fun of the way I say like booger.

Bugger. It's booger. She's wrong. We're not going into this again. This is not a Canada thing. This is a Haley thing. I know. Oh, dear. Anyway, so those the contenders. I did. I wanted to ask about the Rangers, though, specifically. Like, where have you changed?

because they're an interesting team and Dom and I have gone back and forth on them collectively individually in conversations that we've had about for power rankings really throughout the season like where are you at on them relative to like three weeks ago let's say on March 6th like the day

before the deadline like how stuff changed like I feel like a lot of Rangers I don't know if our power rankings were on some Rangers forum but the amount of messages we got over last week was oh not even Rangers in the top five and again, we're not standing's people. If the Rangers play a series against the Cains, again, I think they're underdogs.

And they might be a third or fourth best team in the east, depending on how you feel about Boston. I don't think they're better than Florida. So they're number three. And with how strong the West is, there's a lot of teams that push them down outside that top five. And I think with how strong Chasturkin has been since probably New Year's, it brings back the formula that has tried and true to them,

which is elite special teams, elite goaltending. That's enough to win. It's just I don't think it's enough to be the team to beat or a top five team with how strong all these other teams are at controlling play at five on five. And some of them have similarly good goaltending. Some of them have similarly strong, special teams. I get that the Rangers are tops in the league right now by points, but

I just don't see it. I mean, but you're still also calling them the favorite. Like you have them, you have them top two in a division that's got three really good teams in it. So I, so I don't know. Who was going to bump them? Who was going to bump them out of the metro? No, what, what about? What about? I, I, I, I, I, But still, like, I mean, I just, I feel like you, this is a reaction to, I think, how much we got yelled at last week. Like, like, you don't, you don't, you don't hate the Rangers. You just have them just sixth instead of fifth.

And that is like enough to whatever. They're Stanley Cup contender, not the Stanley Cup favorite. Yeah. Yeah. Which isn't a bad thing. I don't run with that. I think if anything, I've soured on the Bruins lately. like enough to think that Rangers might be the third best

they just happen those forward groups are just paint I just can't I can't. Their top center is Charlie Coyle on them or Pavazaka depends on what you think If the question is Who's your top center

Has an answer that says it depends That's bad And if it's either Charlie Coil or Papalzaka Like that is never This isn't this isn't Crosby or Moulcan This isn't Crosby or Malkin in 2016. And even that case, it was never, it depends. It was always.

It's always McDavid, not tricidal. It's always, like, if it depends, you do not have a number one center on a contender. That's the issue with the Bruins. And they have enough strengths elsewhere, but I don't, I don't know. I don't think they're a very scary team this year. famous last words from someone from Jerome. I think the talked to in six weeks, dude.

Damn. So I think the, I think the Panthers are the best team in the Atlantic, like maybe, I don't know. Do we think that they're the best team in the East? I think I would say the Panthers and the Canes of the class of the East right now. Yeah.

And the Rangers too. But I think what's an interesting omission from our contenders list that we haven't mentioned yet is Toronto. They're not in the contenders list. They're going to be a dark horse. We'll get to them a little bit more in the second segment. But it seems bad for year eight of the Austin Matthews era slash Shanna plan for them to be a dark horse and not a true contender.

Yeah. I think a lot of the time it's it's had to do with their division. They are never the top team in their division, except for that one year where everything went wrong in the playoffs and they lost the Montreal Canadians. But aside from that, they've usually been second or third and I mean, they have their big

four up front. They have decent defensemen. They just don't have an elite defenseman. Their depth isn't that scary no matter how good Bobby McMahon has been lately. Lately? It's been great since the jump,

brother. That's the start to a Hall of Fame career. loved him last year before he got hurt and I thought he was so I thought he was great. He just has such a great name that you just expect greatness and that's that's what that's what the Leafs are getting. Not to sidetrack, but there's a, um, a girl who plays for St. Lawrence. I think she has the best hockey name I've seen in women's hockey. Her name's Abby Hustler.

Oh my God. Yeah. Unbelievable. She was a finalist for the Patty Cass for Player of the Year and I'm like, oh, she should be an MVP finalist soon. Yeah. Well, that's like MVP. That's like Player of the Year.

I mean, in the bigs. Oh, yeah, yeah. Okay. Yeah, do you guys, you think if Abby Hustler makes it to the PWHL and scores 50 goals, will it be because of her last name? I think so. It's because she hustles. Abby, Abby Richfather.

Can you not do this again, Sean? Anyways. Yeah, I've saturned on the Bruins enough to think that the Milleafs is probably close to a coin flip in a play-up series. then you remember they're the Leafs and they'll probably lose, but on paper, coin flip-ish. You just put coin flips towards Boston in this case. And I don't think either of them are on the same levels of the Panthers right now. All right. Those are our contenders.

Anything else, Sean, anything you wanted to add? Yeah, we need to have a quick discussion about the Dallas starters, I think. They're in your contenders group. They're certainly in mine. Love almost everything about them, blah, blah, blah. We've been gassing them up all year. At some point, though, we need to be a little bit concerned about Jake Ottinger because we're all treating it as, you know, a question of when rather than if he starts to look a little bit more like the guy that we expect him. At some point, this dude's going to need to, you know, get the save percentage above 900, which it's not.

He's 83rd in the league and goals saved a little bit expected, which, you know, in fairness to him, he plays a crazy amount, which can, which can affect that. But like this isn't this isn't the season that I don't think any, certainly any of three of us expected him to have. And I think we're at the point in the calendar now where it's like, is he going to get the train back on the track or is he going to be an actual red flag for them? Like during the playoffs. I think it's an actual red flag. Like I'm looking at their depth chart now and I have Odinger at plus one.

Very, very average, which is not great. Like he'll be rated as one of the lesser goalies going to playoffs. It's just that the. the rest of the team is so good. Yeah. I think you can paper over his struggles. Their third in points percentage right now, and their goaltending has been so subpar,

and they have just added TANF to solidify their defense. Their top four defensively is unreal. Their top nine up front is deeper than any other team. I just think there is so much to love about the stars, And if their red flag is a guy who's shown he has some playoff flexibility, then it's not the brightest red flag compared to other teams. Can you believe that that's where we're at in the Dallas Star's lifespan where now we're like, this is an unbelievably deep team. The red flag might be the goaltender. Like think of where we were on them two years ago where it's like this team has one line and one good defenseman.

And we're just going to. Yeah, exactly. We're going to help that out. And it goes out there and steals one. It's wild. And I think if we're looking ahead again, you know, I know that if the playoffs started today,

thing is not always perfect because there's three weeks left to the season. But it's quite interesting because we're looking at a potential mashup against the Nashville Predators if the Preds keep Wild Card 1 and the stars stay in Central one.

Or wild, yeah, sorry. And UC Soros is a goal. goalie that you would normally say like, ooh, the stars could get goalied. But like, Saros hasn't been that guy. I think he's been better over the last few weeks. He had a shutout. I mean, against the Red Wings a few days ago. But his last five games, he's been, you know, a 900, 950 save percentage guy, although he was like pretty bad against Vegas Golden Knights. But like, UC Soros isn't as scary right now as he was in the past either. So I don't know if we're going to, and I don't know if we're looking at that matchup and saying like the Dallas stars are, you know, a threat to get goalied

in the first round and knock on wood because UC Saros has shown that he could be that guy. But so is Jake Onger. So it's kind of an interesting goalie matchup and two guys who have shown they can be scary in that way, but haven't really been consistently this season. I think Soros' body of work is a lot longer than Onger's. Like with Oinger, like he had that amazing playoff run. against Calgary where he had one amazing season and then last year's playoffs he kind of stunk he stunk all year this year yeah like it is very possible he's just I'm saying I'm saying this

as somebody who picked him to win the Vezna before the season like I've like a strong pick board yeah yeah so you know but that's what I think makes that match up interesting is which goalie is going to kind of rise back to to their level and I think history could just that Soros is the guy who can do that. He's a 909 save percentage this year. Just a shade under three goals against, 2.75. But yeah, he's historically like a

920 goalie. And he was the boogeyman for the Calgary Flames before they ended up. He was the boogeyman? I don't know. That's just how I say it. The year that the flames ended up almost getting goalied by

Ottinger, like they almost got booted from the playoffs by UC sorrows. He was just that good down the stretch that he was like pushing the flames for for a playoff spot almost by himself. So we'll get into the Preds a little bit more in the next segment because they are, spoiler alert, one of our dark horse contenders. So I'm not worried for the Dallas Stars. I've like just decided that I'm not worried because I've been picking them all year to win the Stanley Cup. And I'm not going to waver. I'm going to be strong. So we're going to take a break. When we come back, we'll get into our dark

horse contenders here on the athletic hockey show. All right, welcome back. It's time to get into the dark horse contenders as picked by Dom. So if you have any problems with it, take it up with Dom. Okay. At D-O-M-L-U-S-O-Z. No, he's Googling it. He's Googling it. He's Slow down. I know that it's L-U-S-Z-C. Z-Y-S. Okay. There's another, there's another Z-E-N.

There you go, buddy. Great work. Only took a quick Google. That's not true. Nice job. I had Dom as Dom L in my phone for a long time. And once he, like, he saw that and it was very offended. He was like, serious.

You can't just like put my last name on your phone. No, no. Okay. So our Dark Horse. contenders. This was a group effort, although we did have some debate about Vancouver. So we have the Vancouver Canucks, the Toronto Maple Leafs,

Winnipeg Jets, L.A. Kings, Nashville Predators, and Tampa Bay Lightning. Very quickly, guys. No dark horse contenders from the Metro. Why is that? Sean, I thought there were three good teams of the Metro. I've never gotten no sold on a joke like that in my life.

It was too deadpan, I guess. It wasn't deadpane. we were both just like, what? That's why I bailed on it immediately. It made you feel like a jackass. Yeah, I think the penguins are good. Okay. Hey, they're only nine points out of a playoff spot.

Stop it. It's like every time the penguins, like get a single point or win, it's like, hey, don't look now, but that's what we're going. Oh, I'll look now. Yes. 12 points back. Only 12 points back.

They're not mathematically eliminated yet. Spiritually. Yeah, beaten down. No teams in the Metro. I'm sorry to the Washington Capitals and the Philadelphia Flyers, but I think we were picking dark course contenders based on, like, not just teams who we're going to, yeah, yeah, not just teams who are going to make the playoffs,

but teams we think could, you know, make it to the Cup final. Who thought the Caps could have, like, potentially made the playoffs even three weeks ago? So I'm done applying logic to them, but, yeah, they're, Sure. It's got to end at some point. It's really funny. I think the fact that it's March 28th,

and we're talking about not including the caps and flyers and the wildcard conversation and not even like acknowledging the Islanders or the Devils teams that were supposed to be there. And the Penguins, like wildly disappointing seasons for for those teams. And then, I mean, the Red Wings are still in and around it. So we'll see what happens there. but even if they make it. I don't think this is one of those years where I don't think the wild card two team

just needs to get in and we can shake things up, at least when we're talking about the East. Right? Like this is not one of those like, who's that? Devils. Oh, sure. If they may be back to the playoffs. I think played kind of well.

Jake Allen seems to be okay. If they go on an upgrade at the very least. And they're 8 and 1 going to the playoffs. They're probably pretty scary, but I don't think they're going to make it. And I don't think, I still don't think they'd have a great shot, but I think they'd be a little worrying than if they had to face the Red Wings or the Capitals. And they're five points behind Washington. And Washington has seven, three in their last time.

Five points behind Washington, and they've also played two more games. They're at 73 games played Washington. Yeah. So it's like, you can't, you can't discount it. But, you know, you've been crazy if they trade for Jake Allen in like the middle of February. Can you imagine such a, such a crazy, such a crazy move? Mm-hmm. I feel like they were asking for like December.

Devils fans were like, please get us a goalie. It doesn't have to be Markstrom. It can just be someone who knows what they're doing. Well and behold. I remember getting shaded two years ago by saying the devils really need to upgrade. on Vtec Vanec check and then people were just like, oh, the VTick Vanichick who has blah blah blah, blah, say percentage.

I'm like, yeah. I remember, I remember when they, what that was a trade and sign, I think with Washington when they acquired him. Because I remember it happening. We were at the draft. Dom, you and I were literally,

I think we might have been at the pool in the hotel when it happened. Because I remember going back to my, like going back to my hotel room and being like, this is not, this is not going to work. Because he was, he was garbage for, for Washington, especially in the playoffs.

He just looked like a dude that didn't have the juice. And here we are, 24, having that same conversation. Like, whatever. Be better. Yeah, so I think you're right, Dom. If they make the playoffs, that's a team that could shake it up because they have a ton of skill. I mean, I've been saying it all year on the show. I think Jack Hughes is one of the most fun players to watch in the league.

So, yeah, the Devils, but there's a huge asterisk there. And the fact that they are five points out of the playoff spot. don't have any games in hand and they would need the caps to yeah and they need the caps to start losing they need the caps to play like the team that isn't actually good at anything which is what they are in fact

their results don't reflect it but you never know geez okay so everything like I I'm not holding it against them I think it's great but what there's nothing that that team is particularly good at other than winning games stacking one goal games like good for them

I just want to bring up that they've been pretty good since they got rid of Joel Edmondson. So this is really what the show is. It's just a, do you want to start with the leaves? Didn't leave out of excuse to let Dom grind his axe about Joel Edmondson. Yeah, that's fine. Okay, how about we start with the Leafs?

What's the dark horse? Let's maybe let's just frame these teams this way. Like, what is the case for Toronto, Dom? The case for Toronto is they have one of the best players in the world, and they have two wingers who are among the best wingers in the world. And that, in some cases, could be enough. It's never been enough for them in previous playoffs. Maybe this is the year.

Maybe this is the year Matthews has 17 points in six games in a playoff series. Who knows? It could happen. Will happen against Boston? Probably not. Will happen against Florida? Probably not. their path is very difficult, and that is usually the issue is that they are not the top team in their division, and they still aren't.

I think their depth is starting to come together a bit more. Domi's been better, Bertuzi's been better. Bobby McMahon, greatest hockey player of all time. Yeah. But the defense is still catchy, and I do not think what they did at the deadline makes it any. less sketchy. Eminson and Lubbush can give them some playoff size, but you now have two guys in the lineup who can't move the puck

really out really well. And I don't know, it's just everything after Matthews, Marner, Nylander is just a bit scary, I think, to really call him a contender. I think, yeah, the Leaves problem on D was that they needed more guys, you could get the puck out of the zone and transition up to the elite forwards.

And then they went out and got to like box out big big boys. So they still have the same problem. But yeah, they've got size. We love the box out. We love the box out big boys. Don't we folks? Big, big boy who can box out.

Pierre. In the big body in front of the crates. Pierre LeBron just repelled up to my bedroom and is tapping on the window. Did I hear big boy hockey? Let's go. Don, was that just like, you didn't include Tavares in that outside of these top guys. Thoughts, reasons? I'm just curious.

I like Tavares a lot more than I think most people in this market do. I think he's still quietly effective. He's just not, he's obviously the fourth fiddle now. I think he's a better to see than still a lot of other. teams, but he's not the Tavares we remember watching for the last decade. He is a step slow. He doesn't, like, individually drive play the way he used to. His on-ice numbers are still pretty good, but he's always playing with Neeland or Marner, who are the ones, I think, driving the bus there. I just think that they kind of miss their shot with him in his, I guess,

peak years as a dominant one C playing in the two C role and now he's just sort of a pretty good two C which is not bad. It's just not the competitive advantage they once had with him. And now the Bruins Andrew P. Campus Lundon pairing

is going to shut down the second line and that's why they're going to lose the original. Andrew Peak. What's going to happen? I've never heard you laugh like that in my life. Lee. Oh my God. That's the first time I've heard Sean like happy.

It's crazy. Probably a bad sign that on March 27th, the Leafs are getting shredded by Sheldon Keefe after a 6-3 loss to the New Jersey Devils, who we just discussed as being five points out of the playoff spot. And like kind of specifically calling out Tavares. Not great. Yeah.

fan. It's, it's, things aren't great, but as we learned in 2018, sometimes it's the seasons that aren't that great that can produce the Stanley Cup champion you've been waiting a decade for. That's the spirit. Um, okay. Oh, God. That's just like very bleak. Um, okay, the Vancouver connects. We discussed them quite a bit in the first segment, just in the conversation of being a contender versus, um, a dark horse. I think at some point, we need to just, look at the team that's been among the top in the league all season as a true contender. However, I also understand the arguments we made in the first segment. I made the one, too, of like, I would probably end up betting for Vegas if they played in the

first round just because they won the cup last year and they made X, Y, Z additions at the trade deadline. But the Canucks do have a lot of things that we like as well. Thatcher Dempco is on LTAR, which is devastating for me as the Thatcher Dempco owner in fantasy really bad timing. I'm probably going to lose to Myrtle, which is really devastating because it's Myrtle. That's what's the- That's what did you in is, is Demko screwed your seating and now it's screwing your actual playoff match-up. That's correct. What do we like about the Vancouver Canucks as a Stanley Cup contender, or a Dark Horse contender, I should say.

Sean, do you want to start with this one? I end talent. I mean, that's like, that's, that's always, that's always what it is. It's Patterson, it's use, it's, you know, J.T. Miller. It's the guys who are at the very, who are at the very tippy top for them. That's all, that's, in a lot of ways, that's the tiebreaker for me. Yeah. When it comes to Vegas, is that you know for a fact that their best guys are going to be, you know, A, barring, they're on track to be in the lineup at the start of the playoffs,

which I think is important. and B, they've been their best guys for the duration of this run. So that's kind of the, to me, that's what makes me give them the edge over Vegas at least. And you know, it's been really interesting to track this season as Sean, when you did the like number one center tiers, I noticed there were a lot of people saying like, why is J.T. Miller not included on this instead of Pedersen. And I think that's like a great problem to have if you're Canucks fans debating like who is actually our one C is a JT Miller. who has, you know, 34 points or 34 goals and 91 points a season? Or is it Elias Pedersen who's, you know, I don't have a stats in front of me, but he's not far behind and he's, you know, the younger kind of highly skilled.

Yeah, it's, it's nice for Canucks to argue that J.T. Miller's their number one center, but that's not an argument you're going to get from anybody else, like, which is fine. Like, he's, he's been great. I mean, that's not the point. I just mean the fact that they have two, like, elite centers in that. The fact that they can lose their minds and scream at me and, you know, go ballistic over me saying that Elias Pedersen is the number one C over Miller. Yeah, the fact that they have the latitude to do that is a good sign for them. Yeah.

I think their argument is that Miller does take the tougher minutes over Pedersen, but it's the Crosby-Malkin problem where you're taking Pedersen because he's better. Because it's just not really an argument. I think that if they have Pedersen Miller, Lindholm, and Blugher down the middle, that's probably one of the deepest center cores in the league, just a matter of whether they play Lindholm on the wing or not, and whether he is healthy and capable and all of that. I do wish that his addition brought about the impact that a lot of us expected. On paper, that looks like a fantastic fit for this team,

a another like top six caliber player and he just hasn't looked the part and it's just been a bit unfortunate in that way because as good as the Canucks have been this year as great as their stars have been I'm still just not really sold on their overall depth especially after on defense after Hughes and Chronic I don't think they have like a legitimate top four guy you have Cole Susie Zedorov Myers who you can play in that role, but I just, I wouldn't feel super comfortable, especially if they're going up against a deep Vegas team or an Edmonton team that can throw McDavid or Drysidal out. I don't know who the second pair is going to be in terms of stopping them. I, that's my biggest concern of the team. The forward depth, as soon as the bottom six, stopped shooting 20%, I think

they've been a lot less good. There's a, there's a reason I didn't mention any of those guys. Right. Like that's where the regression that I think a lot of us have anticipated really, really hit hard is on the whatever. Neil Hoaglanders of the world. You know, that's just like those guys just weren't going to shoot 23% for a full season. I think to their credit, like since the All Star break, they've got like a 54% expected goals. Like they're playing so much better right now. And they they no longer need to score on 20% of their shots. They can win by outplaying other teams in a way that they weren't really doing as much in the first half where we were all crying about regression, which... Yeah. It's not a fundamental part of their game now.

They're a legitimately good team. It's just the Pacific has two teams that are a lot scarier. That's like perfectly in character for you that you like Vegas, you like Vancouver now more than you did. two months ago, even though there was, like, it's, it's, it's true. Like, I get it. Yeah, but it's not off-neast.

Like, there, how many games, how many games did they, like, pump an opponent, like, 6-2 and, um, Rick Tocket's still, like, benching guys and yelling at them being like, you need to play better, you know? Like, I think that was the whole point of Rick Tockett, doing that through the whole first half of the season is, like,

we're getting the result, but we're not playing the way that we should. So we need to keep working on this. And now, like, the results are a little, little bit different, but they're playing better. And I think that will, that's helped them in the long run, as to Dom's point is, you know, they're playing better. They're not maybe killing guys as much, but like they don't need to. So, yeah.

It's worked out. When we say they're going to be underdogs of Vegas, it's not like they're going to be like, it's going to be a 60, 40 series. Like, it's going to be a tight series. Be great for a match if it happens. Yeah, it would be fantastic. It would just be definitely one the Canucks would want to avoid. I think they can beat the Preds.

They can beat the Kings. Just Vegas is that one really scary wildcard team. Yep. Are we concerned if they don't get Demko back naturally? That's probably a stupid question. But Casey DeSmith's been fine. But you kind of want Demko back sooner rather than later. He'll be back, right?

Yeah. He was put on LTIR retroactive to when he was first hurt. Harmon wrote that up yesterday. He wrote up the LTIR news and he didn't seem overly concerned. I know that it doesn't change the initial prognosis. Like it's not like something happened during rehab and now he's going to be out longer. No, like it was a retroactive LTIAR move to bring in some light cap space slash roster spot. They called up Arsdeep Baines again, which is a great story that I don't think we've talked about much on this show.

I think other days have talked about it. But he's been recalled, I think, Lynn Holmes day to day right now as well. He wasn't on the ice for practice on Wednesday. So, yeah, it's not like a concern that he's on LTIR, but there still hasn't really been a great timeline. I think because of LTIR, he's eligible to return on April 6 against the Kings. But we also haven't heard from Rick Tockett to my knowledge that, like, yeah, he's going to be back in April or he's going to be back in two weeks. so okay let's stay in the western conference winnipeg jets they are a dark horse contender dumb sean max and i got into like a heated we we battled over the jets more so because i think

we didn't it was a i was a debate over um no it's because i think there was this conversation again of like are they just a connor hellabuck team sean and i i think believe that they are not that for the first time in a while like this is one of those years there's more going on for the Winnipeg Jets. Less that, yeah. Yeah. Right. I have a fever, so don't yell at me, Jets fans.

You know I'm on your side. You heard me battle for you last week. So, Don, what do you think? What do you make about the Winnipeg Jets? You can be the, I mean, it wouldn't be a tiebreaker because Sean and I were two to one over max, but you can help our case or really? I, like, I agree that they're not just a hellback team. They have a lot of other things going for them.

I think there are four lines. deep. They have a star defenseman Josh Morrissey. Their biggest issue is they definitely have the worst top end of any playoff team. Like Nashville has Forsberg, he'd be the best

player on the Jets. L.A. has Copaart. he'd be the best player on the Jets. Vancouver, Edmonton, Vegas, Dallas, Colorado, Edmonton, there's no debate with those teams. And as good as

Shifley, Connor, dealers to Foley are, they are not going to be the best player on the ice in any series they play in the West, and that is their biggest disadvantage. They make up for it in other ways, where their third and fourth line might be better, or they have the best goal in the world,

but if your top line is already behind the eight ball, it's just a bad place to start, where you're a good team, you can have a good regular season, but come playoff time, those matchups aren't going to be in your favor. Yeah, I feel like that's the case against.

But we still do have them as a dark horse. And I do think this is what maybe boosts Max's case, is that what makes them that kind of dark horse is they have the best goalie in the league, say for like a Vasilevsky when we're looking at historic numbers, right? But in terms of the West, like, Connor Hallibuck is the one that could scare teams, right? And that's what makes Winnipeg maybe a nightmare for a first round matchup or a second round matchup. How far they go?

Yeah, it's Hellibuck. And, like, they are a deep team. They, their second, third, fourth lines are probably among the best in the West. Yeah. And they have Hellbuck. That sometimes can be enough we saw. We've seen teams the past make it by way of their. depth dominating the more top-heavy teams.

It just depends on what kind of matchup the Jets get and whether Halebuck is on his A-plus game. We saw it last year with the Cracken beating the Aves in the first round of the playoffs, right? Could we see that with the Jets? With the NHL starts today, it's Jets' Aves. But that's the thing. I don't know if we see this year's Colorado Avalanche team getting upset in the first round of the playoffs. No, probably not. Knock on wood, but.

Could happen, but probably not. we're looking at Hellebuck versus Georgiev, but again, I don't know. That'll be interesting. Oh, I'm excited for the playoffs in the West. In the East? They should be pretty good. Okay, we'll take a quick break. We have three more, three, oh my God, three more.

Three more. I wish. Three more. Three more dog horse can send us. We'll be right back. We're back. I don't know why I spoke that way. I just kind of leaned into the accent to pretend I did.

that on purpose instead of just don't know how to speak. Okay, let's go to the LA Kings. We're going to keep it in the West and then we'll round out. We got Kings, Preds, and Lightning left to go. One thing you said Dom that was interesting is like Copatar would be the best player on the Jets. And Fiala. Please explain. And Fiala. So the Kings have that little bit more of a mix of stars and depth. Is that the vibe we're getting about the Kings? year. Yeah, like the King's problem is still that they, they don't have the star players that

the Oilers have or Vegas has, but at least compare the Jets, they, they're looking pretty good with Kopitar and Fial up front. Camp Bay, byfield has looked really good as well. And that top line may not put up the same scoring numbers as Shifley and Connor, but they can play really well at both Quincy Ice, they can frustrate opponents. They, I mean, Copter is still a Selky caliber defender at age 49 or whatever he is. Yeah, I was, I don't think I realize how good he'd been this season. I think he's a guy, he's a classic guy. This is a cliche, but I think we've taken him for granted in a lot of ways.

Like, he's got, he's got a few seasons in his career, three or four, let's say, where he was, that are, that stand out from the rest, you know, where he was, where he was heart, you know, in the heart discussion. Mm-hmm. But everything else is like of a type in this year, despite him being 36 or however what he is now, like, it's indistinguishable from this season versus 2014 or 2018 or whatever, like it, like, across the board, honestly, it's, it's in line with as good as he was 10 years ago or 8 years ago.

And I don't think I had quite realized it, uh, that, you know, that was. that's what we were talking about with him until until a couple weeks ago. He's been fantastic. His two-way impact over his entire career has been so impressive. And I just think to last year, Mitch Marner was a finalist for the Selke and Anzay Kopitar was not. And that was like a huge problem in Kingsland is like how how was this guy not more in the conversation? I'm still not sure I'm murdered on nominated, but. I know. It was one of these things where...

Yeah, I mean, obviously. But it was one of those things where I had this conversation with somebody in Carolina. And the way that they framed it to me, too, is like, yeah, Mitch Marner's like playing on the... It's because he was, like, doing well on the P.K., basically. And it was like, but at the end of the day, with, like, this big D-Zone shift in an important game, like, who do you want in the ice? Mitch Marner or, like, Jordan Stoll? all. Yeah.

Or Anzay Kopitar. Like, come on. Like, that should be your tiebreaker when we're having this conversation of the Selki is. Who would you rather have, like, in the final minute in the D zone to, like, make it to the cup final? Like, who's, who's picking Marner over Copatar? Yeah. I'm with you.

I feel like I had stall and probably Copatar higher than Marner last year. Marner had a great defensive season. He's just, he's not Jordan Stalled defensively. I think of the Kings is they have two lines that can work really well defensively because they also have Philip to know behind Copa-Tar and he plays with Trevor Moore and Kevin Vial and that line is unreal

and it may not be the sort of name brand value as some other guys but those two lines can really drive play and win matchups in a way that's a lot stronger than I guess the reputation would dictate and that's the big thing with the Kings is they have those guys, their top four looks really strong as well.

And their big issue is they have either Cam Talbot or David Riddick in that. And that is a huge problem. Big save Dave. Oh. There ain't a lot of those. Yeah. Okay, the Nashville Predators. This is one of the, you know, no disrespect to the Jets and the Kings.

They're interesting and we have them in Dark Horse contenders for a reason. But I think the Preds are probably the most interesting dark horse. in the Western Conference. Like, we had this conversation before we started recording, but, like, it's just a lot of fun. Like, I think we're all just happy that the Preds are good. Like, they're a fun team to talk about Ryan O'Reilly's having a great season. Obviously, we had a bit of a discussion about UC Soros,

who, you know, has a track record of, you know, being a goalie who can steal games, who could have the potential to steal a series. Things have worked really well in Nashville this year. GM Barry Trots is a lot of fun. Sean, do you have a thought on the Nashville Predators? Yeah, I'm just, I'm glad they're at the bottom of the conference. I think this is kind of what you were getting at, right? Like, they're the team that rounds out the field to a point where you can, if you squint,

you can see everybody kind of with the potential to advance. And we don't feel the way about the East, which we've already gone over. So I'm glad they exist. And Soros, you know, he hasn't maybe been quite as good as we've seen from him in the past, but the track record is is really impressive. And also we are, again, talking about Romano, he putting up a point per game season, potentially, as a defenseman.

Like, he's, he's come on, he's come on really strong. So, yeah, I love, I love what they're bringing to the table. You know, some, I can call it a bounce back season for Ryan O'Reilly, if that's what we want, but also, you know, whatever, Tommy Novak's giving them good time, too. Like, that's a, that's a really interesting group of, it's a more interesting group of skaters than we've seen from them in the past. And I think that's where, you know, you mentioned GM Barry Trots.

I think that's kind of where, where we, where we see him doing his work. Forsberg has 40 goals. Ryan McDonough has been solid. Forsberg's healthy. Like, that's always the issue. That's, it's, it's been the issue with him like on and off over the last bunch of years.

You know, if that dude can consistently stay in the lineup, you know, you're going to get something approaching that level of production from him. And he's been great. Mm-hmm. He's also part of Haley's terrific team. Congratulations.

I think I did really, really well in my fantasy drop thing. I'm just staying out of the basement, baby. That's all I think cloaks behind me. I need to. It's fine. All good. Yeah. What do you think about the Preds?

I think we got to give a lot more credit to Andrew Brunette. Mm-hmm. And I think part of the reason Soros struggled, I think, through the first half is getting used to a new system that is more faster-paced. But since the U-2 concert was canceled, which is a huge part of Preders lore, Saros has a 921, say, percentage. He is bully back. And if we're talking about down seasons compared to Jake Onger, Sarles is still in the top

30 for goals saved above expected. He's still, if that's his down season, like, we're in a good spot. I think that I've come to think that, you know, especially when it comes to comes to the, or as it relates to the goalie discussion, in a lot of ways, the sign of an elite goalie is when their down season is still, you know, passable, right? Yeah, it's down season. He's a nine, ten, say, percentage guy. Like, I, I think I said that, hopefully in the middle segment is like, his down season is still, you know, under three goals against in a 909, say percentage. Like, it's not catastrophic here. It's just, you know, it's 10% lower than

what we're expected of him, you know? Like lots of goalies, lots of goalies can have the one really good season. Less of them can guard against the bad one. And I think that's kind of, you know, what we're seeing play out in some spots. Yeah. Preds are fun. Again, another could be a really fun first round matchup. Pred stars first round.

I think Ottinger, Saros head to head would be really interesting, especially if Saros, as Dom said, has been really good. since the U2 concert was canceled. He's been great. Okay, the final team, it's the Tampa Bay Lightning. They've got, I don't know,

is he the Hart Trophy favorite? If not, he's just leading the league and scoring. And Nikita Kutrov, they've got Andre Vasilevsky. What do we like about the Tampa Bay Lightning? Other than those two, I guess.

I like the way Vaselowski's played for the last six games or eight games. Like, he looks like himself, and that was sort of, I mean, we kind of, similar to the discussion we had about Ottinger, like at some point, for all Vasselas,

he's done, for as good as he's been over the course of his career, at some point, you need to say, like, is this just one of those, is this one of those seasons

where it's just not going to come together? And, uh, it's similar to Saros, you know, that dude, that we kept saying, this guy,

this guy isn't going to be sub 900 for, for, for, for, you know, forever. And I think he's pivoted towards kind of making that stand up. especially over the last six or seven games.

He's been great. Yeah, I love the Juclair pickup. I think he's fit so perfectly with the lightning. It's allowed Hegel to slide down to the second line. And former strong shutdown pair with Sorrelli and sort of bide Stephen Stamco's, who is Tveras but worse. I'm just saying it's also a big problem with lightning.

And no one brings it up. quite as much. Do you remember, like, it was the season before last when we were like, is this the cliff for Stephen Stamco's? Like, is he done as like a really good five-on-five player? And it was not when we, when we said that, right? It was not when we brought it up. He still put together a pretty, pretty impressive run.

But I don't know. He's also produced one to Mara Tavares, which kind of like probably shields over. Yeah. defensively is a lot. Yeah, but who cares. Who cares about that? Who cares about 899 Basilewski this year? The defense hasn't mattered.

That is their actual biggest problem is after headman. You have Darren Radish, Nick Perbix, Eric Surinac is good, Hayden Flurry, Matt Dumbah, some other guys I can't remember. It's bad. It's really bad. Totally. And Hedman, I think, has taken on a lot of tough minutes this year, and this team just isn't the, doesn't have the defensive ability it once did. And it's so much more top-heavy than previous version of lightning.

But they have that winning pedigree. It's the lightning. I'd still be a little afraid to face them the first round. They're just, their depth is really sketchy. Okay. Of all these dark horse contenders, is there one team that you guys like the most? The Canucks. Without a doubt.

It's unfair. I'm waving. Why? In the discussion. They're a dark horse contender. We just talked about them. On our list, on our list, it's Vancouver for sure. Thank you.

He wanted to say the leaves. Big Leaps, guy. I never want to say the leaves. Yeah. That's why you didn't want to say it. That's what I'm saying. You're sitting there like, I don't want to say it. We know who you're talking about.

Yeah. And I think if it isn't clear after this hour-long conversation, the Canucks are a dark horse in this conversation because we only picked two teams per division. And Vegas kind of got the tie break, right? Yeah. They got screwed by the system. Sox. Take it up.

Take it up with the system. Take it up with the judge. We're all trying to find out who did this. Take it up with the judge. I'm going to watch. I think you should leave later, I think. Great call. Make a little cup of tea.

I'm going to watch my little show and try to kick this fever. It's great. I think a final thought maybe from Dom, because we need to wrap up the show, but Dom did have a really interesting update to his model and, like, new project just came out today. And it was looking at usage. And as we just kind of had the discussion about usage with some of these players, Victor Hedman, etc., this is interesting because we can now look at through Dom's model, like how players on each team are being utilized in terms of their minutes, their matchups,

easy defense, easy offense, and vice versa. Dom, what can you tell us about this update that you've made to the model and your story that posted today with all of the, it's not team depth? charts, but it's like the team usage charts, which is like very fun to take a scroll through. Yeah, they weren't as fun to put together because I did it all manually. So that sucks. But yeah, when I changed my model last year to split it up to offense and defense, this is something I had in mind the whole time is that in terms of usage, I don't think we want to look at quality competition as a team's, a player's total value. We want to look at it as an offensive

and defensive perspective because there's a lot of shut down defensemen who aren't good offensively and they won't show up as well on that kind of number. And I think the last decade or so, a lot of analysts have pretended that quality of competition is not real or non-important or trivial. And it's because the tools we had to use it to measure it were just not very good. If you look at Sider, who is the big example from the piece, his competition plays one minute more on average than Shane Gossesbury. And so when you look at that, you're like, oh, that doesn't matter. It's not a big deal. The difference between a 14 minute and a 13 minute player is nothing.

But when you have a better measure of quality, you have a better understanding what the competition is. And the other big thing is the effect size was even bigger than the range. So someone facing tough minutes is an even more difficult task than what the actual tough minutes are. So if the average offensive rating is two, the effect on your defensive rating might be like minus three. Like it's that sort of thing. And I think I was just frustrated with my own model and other models as well, seeing third pair defensemen who I knew were getting softer minutes come out looking stronger than. They should have. And that was the biggest issue that I think I wanted to fix and I wanted to push the conversation forward for a lot of people in the space and give a much needed credit

to former athletic employee, Tyler Della, who fought the Julius Honkawars very vigorously four years ago and can be vindicated today. Grandpa, what did you do in the Honkawars? I mean, that's always been one of my biggest pet peeves, absolutely. is like everyone loves a good third pair guy who can produce in the minutes that he's given, but the presupposition can't be that he's going to succeed when his role changes, right? Like, I think that's just, I think what you've done adds a layer of context that was missing. Yeah.

And like the other thing is the, like last year I made the decision to not look at things on a per 60 rate. because in that way you assume someone scoring two points for 60 on the third line can do that on the first line on his own accord. And it's the same with allowing fewer expectacles against on the third line per 60. You seem great, but play 20 minutes and that might not be the case. So when you look at quality from that perspective, you see, I guess, larger gaps in the player's face because it's not just a per 60 basis. it's their actual total value. I think it's interesting. It's a great update. And again, that story posted on the athletic this morning.

And yeah, all the charts are, yes, they were hard to do. But they're great and they're fun to scroll through. I think the Cains. When charts are hard to do. I know. There was only one spelling mistake. I think I'm pretty proud of that. They're like six hundred names.

That's pretty good. That's amazing. Good job. I think the Cain's chart is the funniest because everyone's kind of clustered in the middle. Everyone just has the same deployment, I guess. Did you miss Tony DeAngelo all the way up at the top? The four words. The Keynes forward.

Did you miss Brandon Lemieux? Well, him too. But the Keynes forwards are just very clustered in the middle, except for those two outliers. The exception proves the rule. That's the, that's the definition of that saying. But thanks, Dom, for joining us. This was fun. we'll see how our contenders and dark horses play out.

And we'll see kind of how the standings maybe change or stay the exact same. We've all but lined up a Flyers Capitals. Love it. That is what's happening. One of those teams is winning a cup. I hope it's the Flyers. I really do. No one thought that was a rebuilding team.

They're like, we're fine. We're going to just win games. I can appreciate that. they didn't like start you know buying like they were true contenders at the deadline too like I know um drysdale the driesdale move happened that but that wasn't like giving up a bunch of stuff like I appreciate the way that they've approached all this so yeah I like buyers at the end of the day I like that they their one acquisition as a buyer was someone that made the team worse which is Eric Johnson just like a sneaky

to be like, we still kind of want to rebuild. Yeah. Yeah, like, but also a guy who like the locker room be like, hey, yeah, we got, come on, this is good. They replaced, you know, Sean Walker in one way or another. Like, it's fine. They still believe in us. Aha.

Gotcha. Go team. Yeah, so I think the one takeaway from today's show is go Flyers. That's kind of everything that we've discussed. Ryan Johansson, is he still in the American? League doesn't look like he's played a game for the Flyers. I think he's just on sabbatical. Yeah. Oh, shoot.

Well, that's the end of this week's athletic hockey show. Oh, he's injured. Thanks, Jeff. Wow. Oh, yeah, I missed that. I forgot about that. You can just cut that from the show if you don't want to make me look stupid or leave it in. It's fine. Thanks, everyone for listening to this episode of the Athletic Coffee Show. Please leave us a five-star rating and review. If you're enjoying the show, the next athletic coffee show is Friday.

series with Max Boltman, who's like miraculously just back and available to record. Weird. And Scott Wheeler, the guy, has Max turned into Craig Custins? He just like doesn't show up for work. That's been his destiny since day one. I've known him a long time. The slowly morphing into Craig has begun. On the Friday show, the guys are going to discuss Scott's latest 2024 draft ranking

in his two early 2025 draft ranking. ranking. So if you're interested in that, that's coming out on Friday, thanks everyone again for listening. Thanks, Dom. Thanks, Sean, I guess. This is your job. So thanks for being here. Thanks, everyone.