The Athletic Hockey Show - Does Rantanen make the Hurricanes Stanley Cup favorites?

Episode Date: January 27, 2025

Max, Laz, and The Athletic’s own Peter Baugh discuss the continued fallout from Friday night’s blockbuster Avs-Canes trade including how Mikko Rantanen’s Denver departure will define Avalanche GM Chris MacFarland’s tenure there, if No. 96’s arrival in Raleigh has transformed the Hurricanes into Stanley Cup frontrunners, which teams will vie for Rantanen’s services if he reaches free agency this summer, and much more. Plus, the guys talk about the recent Rangers resurgence and whether they should be buyers or sellers at the NHL trade deadline.Hosts: Max Bultman and Mark LazerusWith: Peter BaughExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus and our special guest today, Peter Baugh, for another episode of the athletic hockey show. We're going to talk about the Carolina Hurricanes and how their blockbuster trade for Miko Ranton and this weekend changes the balance of power in the east. We're going to talk about the New York Rangers and whether they're really back after a little bit of an upswing of late. But first, I want to start with Peter.

Peter, you covered Miko Rantan in Colorado. You covered the avalanche. So I want to start there. You've had a couple days to percolate on that. this. Carolina gets Miko Rantinan and Taylor Hall. Colorado gets Martin H. Jack Drury, a second and a fourth. Seeing all that come in Friday night and having a couple days to think about it. What was your initial reaction? And what have you taken up after sitting on it? Yeah. My initial reaction, I think like most people was, I was pretty shocked. It felt like

all the talk around Rantaninan was a little weird throughout the, like it just felt like nothing was happening. But I still, even if I felt like, oh, it was a little slow. I still just always assumed that they would get it done because the abs had the eighth year. They had certain advantages. And then they make this monster trade and it's just a huge shock. I think as I processed it a little more, I think one of the things that I kind of keep coming back to is that in a lot of ways, it's kind of a huge bummer in that this is a guy who wanted to stay in Colorado and who, who,

feels like he should have been part of a core that was kind of together forever. And I think one of the thoughts I've had is like, this is kind of one of the downsides of having a salary cap league is you're going to have players like this who are kind of supposed to be franchise icons who are uprooted because it's simply like too hard to pay a select few amount of players so much of your salary cap. So I think that I've kind of had a few, my heart feels differently about the trade from the avalanche perspective than my head does. And my head has gotten to the point where I understand it for a few different reasons. One is because of just how much you have kind of tied up into a few players. And two, I think my, the big takeaway that I keep coming back to is that to me,

this is a huge bet on Nathan McKinnon and just how prolific a player Nathan McKinnon is. Because I think that this is a bet that the avalanche can put Marty Natchez on a line with McKinn or some other combination of Druin, Lekinen, Natchewski, and that line will produce. Maybe it's not quite what they could with Rantanin, but that they can get like 90 to 95% of the production because McKinnon is that good. And then this allows them to address the rest of the lineup with the money that, would have gone to Miko. There's a lot of cap ramifications of all of this. There will be more cap decisions to be made. The aves have plenty of uncertainty with the cap because of Gabriel

Landa Skugg's ongoing situation. But I think one thing that maybe has gotten a little lost in the kind of discourse around this trade is the Nathan McKinnon element of it of like how good he is. And this is kind of just, I think, a big bet that they can continue to roll with him at the helm and then filter down the rest of the roster some of the resources that would have gone to random. I want to start with your first point about the salary cap inhibiting teams from being able to keep their own guys. I used to hear this all the time here in Chicago when every year they would have to jettison Dave Boland and they'd jettison Brian Bickle and they would jettison Patrick Sharp, Nicholas Jomberson, they just had no choice because they were always up

against the cap. And you always heard the argument was for a, you know, a homegrown exception, right? Like a player you drafted becomes a star, you get to designate one guy who you're allowed to go over the cap with. And it all makes perfect sense and allows these super teams to stay together. But the NHL will just never go for it, right? Because it adds an element of uncertainty to the money pool, right? It just, it's never going to happen. And this is just the reality of hockey right now. And it's going to stay the reality. The only way this stops becoming the reality is if the salary cap truly sky rockets to like absurd levels, which it very well might in the coming years. We don't know that. But there's just, this is the reality of life in the angel.

And this is the thing that kind of popped into my head is just how much is Chris McFarland, the Avalanche GM, expecting to have to pay Kail McCar in three years. Because that's what's driving this, right? Is three years down the road he couldn't, he didn't think he could afford to have McKinnon at 10 digits, McCar at 10 digits, and Ranton in a 10 digits. And what is McCar going to get when the cat might be $15 million higher right then? Is he going to be a $20 million player? If anyone in the league could be, it could be him, right?

So that's kind of where my brain went to is like, oh, my God, what does Chris McFarland think Cal McCar is going to get in three years? Yeah. And I think that the thing that's tough is we don't know the exact number that kind of was offered, like from everything that's been reported by a lot of the insiders, like both of these camps have been had been pretty quiet. But it seems like the abs would have gone to 10 digits. They just probably weren't going to go to the range that Rantanin's camp, at least.

at this point in time wants or one he wants dry sidle money right i mean that's the obvious he's on pace for his third straight hundred point season he deserves dry sidle money i mean it's that simple is he dry siddle i mean peter you covered him really closely like do you think he's he's on the level of leon dry siddle um well well one i don't know exactly what he's a lot of reporting has been he would have taken less than that just in colorado that's pierre reported that um i think miko i haven't read the full translation but he gave an interview to a finished publication where I think he talked about that a little bit. I love, just as an off side, I love how these guys always go talk to European publications

and don't think we're going to see them. That happens. They're always so much more loose-lipped and open with the information and like their Czech language publication. We all have Google Translate. We're going to find out, guys. Yeah, I should double check that I'm pretty sure. I saw something that about that, but I don't, yeah, there's.

here's a there's an article in I'm not going to try and pronounce that but there is there is an article about it but but I think to answer your question max I love Miko Ranton and as a player I think he's awesome I don't think he's Leon Drysidal lover like I think he's close I think he's in that realm I think inherently centers are a little more important and dry Cytle is just unbelievable but I think he's really good. Like I think if Drysidal, if he's 14, then Miko should be 13.5 somewhere in that range, if he's going to maximize what he could get. But also Drysidal, if Drysidal went to the open market, what would someone have paid

him? 15, 16. Like, I think Drysidal could have probably gotten more than 14. It's all kind of, it's hard to know exactly what these guys' open market value is because a lot of them don't reach it. that's why Rantanin could be a weird exception because who knows if he stays in Carolina, what happens next? It's interesting.

Rantan is one of those guys where, I mean, he's like, I think he's the number four score in the NHL over the last five seasons, like four and a half seasons. He is a legitimate megastar in terms of production, but maybe it's because he's in Denver, not in a bigger market. Maybe it's because he's overshadowed by McKinnon and McCar. I feel like he doesn't get the love and the recognition that even a dry saddle gets as the alleged second banana in Emmington to Connor McDavid. What is it about him that makes him so effective?

Is he a one-way guy? Is he a two-way guy for our listeners who are, you know, usually hockey is very myopic. Everyone's focused on their own team. What are the hurricanes getting out of Miko Randon? He's a moose. He's awesome. He's an amazing hockey player.

Hurricanes fans should be ecstatic. I think he's unbelievable. I think to answer kind of the first part of your question, And one of the things you're getting from him is consistency in terms of availability. That's a big reason why he's top five in the NHL and scoring over the last few seasons, like you said. He is the guy plays. Like he will play.

Offensively, he can do just about anything. He's gotten a really good shot and he can shoot in multiple different ways. He can back in the puck in. Like he's very dynamic, has good vision and can pass and can skate well enough to play in a line with Nathan McKinnon, which not everyone can do it. Like, he can, he can move. He sometimes is a little clumsy when he was younger. I think a lot of the, he grew so fast that, that he was, would fall on the ice all the time.

And I think people, one of his finished teammates told me they called him Bambi, I think, when he was younger because he would just kind of like bumble around out there. And you still sometimes see he'll still have like clumsy moments. But he's a good skater. And defensively, I think he's pretty responsible. He's not perfect. Like he's not the, he's not Barcov, but he's, for a guy who's that dynamic offensively, he's not going to hurt you too much defensively.

And you're going to be playing a lot with the puck because when he's on offense, his team usually has the puck. When Laz was talking about that kind of designated player exception, it got me thinking, Craig Custin's five years ago now, did a story on this with Kurt Overhart, one of the prominent agents in the NHL who suggested this and kind of laid out the theory. It was very interesting. But obviously, within that. story is the idea that the owners are never going to go for this. It will not work out that way,

at least as of a few years ago, and I would imagine as of today. But I want to focus in on the avalanches GM here, Peter, because Chris McFarland is a guy who has to work within the framework he has, right? You mentioned this seemed like a core that should get to stay together. McKinnon, Ranton, and McCar, even Landiscaug, right? We expected to watch these guys for a while. They win that cup, and all of a sudden his job changes dramatically with just trying to keep these guys together. Yeah, I think Chris McFarlane is a really interesting figure because when they won the cup, he was assistant GM. So Joe Sackick rightfully got a ton of credit. And I think maybe some people, like I've had people ask me, like, is McFarlane like a worse GM than Sackick?

Like it feels like things haven't been as smooth there since they won the cup. And the reality to me is that Chris McFarlane was instrumental in them winning the Stanley Cup and drove a lot of the decisions that they made. and then kind of he became the more front-facing guy as soon as things got a lot more difficult because all these guys had to get paid. And I think if you look at his few seasons as GM, I think you can point out mistakes, the Ryan Johansson trade,

probably being the number one mistake, but he's been hamstrung by the Landisg injury and kind of the uncertainty around that. And Valnetushkin hasn't finished the playoffs two years in a row, and that probably has cost them at least two playoff series, I would estimate if he had played the whole series. So I think Chris McFarland's job has gotten more difficult. And I also think that this trade that he made,

the Mika Ranton trade, is going to define how he's viewed as the Avalanche GM. Like, if he made this trade, Miko goes on, has seven consecutive hundred point seasons, and Marty Natchez doesn't fit in well in Colorado, and they don't use the Calface well, then this is an unmitigated disaster. I also think there's a world in which Miko goes on, has a ton of success, is really good. But Martin Natchez is really good next to Nathan McKinnon.

And suddenly he's, I mean, he was on 90 point pace before the trade. Playing with Nathan McKinnon, he's going to get a lot of ice time and a lot of opportunity and will probably be very good. And then kind of what this will come down to is how well does McFarlane use the added cap flexibility? Because I think if he hits on that, I think this trade could end up. We could end up looking at this as that was a tough move and took a lot of guts to make that move. But for the depth of the team, it was the right decision. That's kind of where I'm at is I'm kind of impressed with McFarlane here. Like this, he might lose this trade and he might look like an idiot.

But this is a decisive move on an incredibly difficult thing to do it this early and to not let it play out another six weeks because he saw an offer on the table. And he's like, I am not going to get better than that. I'm getting a point to game player back who's young and controllable, a nice young depth center and Jack Drury. I'm getting draft picks out of this. I can't afford to have what happened to the Islanders with John Tavares. I can't have this guy walk. And he potentially sacrificed the Stanley Cup run this year.

Like the Ivalanche were legitimate Stanley Cup contenders just based on the sheer talent they have in order to kind of like stabilize his team long term. I'm not saying I would do that, but it's something that a lot of GMs wouldn't do, right? They would take the safe bet and they would wait until the deadline. or they would keep him and try to get whatever. He made a decisive move that is probably not being very well received by fans that took Ranton in him by surprise. Like this is the kind of decisive bold move that we don't see a lot from GMs.

And these are the moves that have been rewardedly. Look at what Bill Zito's done in Florida. Bold move after bold move and they pay off. Like this is what I'd like to see more from NHLGMs. I will say I agree with you. Same with Tulski. Tulski is just going out there. This is a very expensive rental if he doesn't resign.

but he knows he has a chance to win the Stanley Cup. And this is what I want to see for my NHLGMs. Yeah. What you said about bold moves get rewarded. I think generally bold moves get rewarded when you get the best player in the deal, which Chris McFarland did not do. Right. That doesn't mean I don't think that this could work out for them, but it is like a risk.

And the safe thing to do, like you said, they could have paid Miko Ranton and what he wanted. No one would have batted an eye. But this team might not have been good enough because it might not have had the depth. Or maybe it would have been good enough and they win. another Stanley Cup and everything's Dandy. You become the Toronto Maple Leafs and you don't have the kind of team that can win in the playoffs.

Because you're too top head. I will push back on one thing you said of the avalanche being. How dare you? Legitimate Stanley Cup contenders this year, which in some ways I think there were, but I watched a lot of their games and this was a team that was too top heavy.

McFarlane said that in his press comments. And I believe that played into the calculus, just listening to what he said, he said, we aren't deep enough. and I think that they looked at kind of how the last two years went with injuries in the playoffs and kind of maybe some things, like you're going to lose players every playoffs and the avalanche couldn't, granted, they lost very important players both times in the playoffs, namely Al-Nachushkin, but they didn't have land of skuyck too.

Like it added up. But I think he saw this team and looked at the way it was playing and it was too top-heavy and it wasn't. I don't think that this avalanche team before the trade was going to win the same. Stanley Cup, it probably won't now. This, like this year's team is worse because it doesn't have Miko Rantanin. But I also think if he thought that this was the 2022 avalanche where they were a buzzsaw and mowing through teams, I don't know if he makes this deal. You know, like that, I don't think he viewed this as a top tier cup contending roster the way it had currently been constructed. I think what sticks in my head with it is, is you can go back and do this all day, right? And go, well, if they hadn't given

this guy this contract, could they have kept Rantanin? Right. What it comes back to for me, is kind of this idea I'm obsessed with in sports of you have to keep the thing you're elite at elite rather than trying to like catch up in other areas. So the avalanche had the best top end of maybe any team in the NHL. And they've now weakened that in the interest of depth. And that's fine. That's a perfectly reasonable approach to take. But I wonder if they would have been better off just never trading for Casey Midlstadt

and giving him that contract. And now you don't have Nettches. You don't have middle stat. But you have Miko Renton and still. You're way less deep, but you still have maybe the best top three. of any team in the NHL. And I kind of go back and forth on what the right way is. On one hand, we don't see

that many players with salaries in the 10 million dollar range win the Stanley Cup. So having three of them feels especially difficult. That feels like a case and point against what I'm saying. On the other hand, that's what's worked for them. That's what's kept them relevant. I like that, Max. Yeah.

I like the idea that what made the avalanche scary to any team in the league was their elite, high-end talent, and speed, especially those top two lines, right? It made them different. Now you're right. When you start like, all right, we need to be like everybody else. You still have Nathan McKinnon.

You still have Kail McCar, but you're becoming a little bit more like everybody else. You're not quite as specially. You're not quite as scary. I kind of like where you're headed there, because they do seem less imposing now. Every team does this, right? There's a team in Colorado's been the IT team for like five years because everyone wanted to emulate how they did it, right? You get your McCar, then you get your McKar, then you get your McKinnan, then you get your McCar.

And oh, by the way, you have your Landa scog. So who in my rebuilding team lines up with each of those guys? Well, now they're down to just two of those guys that every team's like, well, who's are this guy, who's are this guy? It equals the playing field out. Yeah, I think that's fair. I also think that the last few years, when the Aves won the Cup, I also, I think that was a uniquely good Stanley Cup winner.

Maybe I'm a little, like, my vision might be colored because I watched them up close. But I don't think that every year Stanley Cup winner needs to be as good as the 22 two abs. I think that was a uniquely dominant team. But one of the things that made that team so dominant was that it could roll four lines and that it could be affected. It could get a huge goal from Darren Helm to send them to the third round. It could get. But that's every cup winner. Every cup winner is the team that can that can roll the four lines and gets the big death scoring and has the goal to get hot. The abs haven't been able to do that since that cup team. Like they have been top heavy. Last year with was maybe, I think if Nuchuskin had been there against Dallas, I think that

would have been a better series and they still got close against them. But this team, it saw some of the limitations of kind of having, of relying so much on these guys. Because number one, they also are going to wear down some more because they play, Jared Bednar played Ranton and McKinnon and McCarkey. He plays them a ton. So I see totally what you're saying. And I think you might be right. To me, what it all comes down to is does McFarland nail the cap flexibility? Because if they use this to get two more good players, and then we're also kind of forgetting that Marty Natchez is, I watched him play today against the Rangers. Really good. He was flying. And like you mentioned the avalanches speed makes them imposing. Marty Natchez is really fast.

And him playing on a line with Nathan McKinnon is going to give some teams fit. Yeah, no, he's faster than Miko Ranton. That's for damn sure. Yeah. So I think that the Aves problem, also look at this as maybe there's another level to Marty Natchez that we can unlock. And the Aves have been very good at identifying players that they can kind of take to that next level, whether it's Arturi Leckhannin or Andre Burekowski or Nazim Kodry, like all these guys went to Colorado and got produced more because the Aves saw something in them. So this is kind of the, I guess, biggest scale at which they've taken that risk. And I don't know if it will work out.

But to me, there is, I still, I go back and forth on your philosophy, Max, of kind of like, this is what made you unique and special. And for some teams, that is the depth, right? Like, for some teams, what makes you special is the four lines thing, right? Yeah. Other teams like Colorado, I think it was their stars. I agree. But I also think that they, I think that this year in particular was probably, if you watched, like,

I didn't watch every game by any means, but they're. They were not a deep team, and I don't think they would have gone far. It's currently constructed. And I think McFarlane was worried about that being, I don't want to speak for him, but I think he was probably worried about that being the long-term tale of this team of, like, we have these awesome players. They're really good. They're super fun to watch.

They get into the playoffs, and then they lose in the first and second round, which has been, other than the year they've won the cup, which is a big exception, has been kind of how this core has been. So it bums me out and I wish they had kept him just because I think like it's better for the sport when like a you have continuity like that and you can feel attached to players. But the more I think about it from my head perspective, I see why they did it. You're absolutely right about the, you know, the cat, what they do with this cap space is keen. I think that goes back into McFarland's decisiveness here and like, I'm going to give myself six weeks here to figure out what I could do. He didn't, you didn't give himself 36 hours to figure out how to live.

post-rant he gets to see what this team looks like post-rant and what holes he needs to fill and he's got the time now to figure out how to do that yeah it's it's fascinating and it's one of the more shocking NHL news alerts I've gotten since I've been covering the league it was a beauty it was great Friday night was fun yeah uh it was yeah a big a big shock and I'm still even as I've kind of got my thoughts together I still just have so much uncertainty on how this uh worked out but I do think one last thought is that like Carolina, I know we've been talking about the abs in all this. Carolina is the huge winner in all of this. They get Miko Ranton in. He's an elite player. They might have the best skater group in the east or maybe the entire NHL right now. And even if he walks in

free agency, they have so much cap flexibility. And Eric Tulski can kind of do this again and find a way to take another big swing. They didn't, they didn't give up a first. They didn't. They didn't go deep into their prospect pool to make this trade. It's a home run for them. I think it, and I think the a V's, it's just to be determined. And I, I, you'd just be, if you're grading the abs trade right now, you would just be predicting how McFarland does with the added flexibility. And we just don't know that yet. Well, let's put a pin in that right there. We'll come back. We're going to talk about the Carolina side of this right after the break. All right, Peter, before the break, you started to lead us into our next topic here. That, that's the Carolina side of this. And I think

you kind of gave us your top line there by saying that, you know, they get the best player in this deal. Is it that simple for them that they get the best player, they win the deal? In Carolina, I don't know if it's that simple for the aves of like they gave up the best player, they lose the deal. I think in Carolina's case, it totally is. Like they need, I mean, we saw last year with, I know they didn't win. They lost to the Rangers, partially because of goaltending, which I'm sure we'll get to. But like the Ajo-Gensel-Setsnikov line was awesome. And they're going to, that line's going to be awesome if Ranton's on it or they can split him up and have Rantin and play on the second line and be unbelievable. And like, for them, this is their window.

They have the flexibility. It's a risky move in that he could walk, but also, even if he does walk, as I touched on, you have so much cat flexibility going into the summer. And you need someone to spend it on. But I think it didn't seem like just kind of listening to how the hurricanes viewed Marty Natchez going into this season. It didn't seem like they were super, super high on him. So they gave up a player that maybe they would have moved on from anyway that might not have been a part of their long-term core. And they get Miko Ranton in, and worst case scenario,

they don't retain him and they have a ton of cap space. Well, that's just it. I mean, if you go back to last year, the end of last season, Marty Natchez, there was no way he was coming back to Carolina. He was grumpy, his dad was grumpy. It was about he wasn't on PP1 and he wasn't getting used the way he should be used. He was as low, you would be selling as low as you possibly could on him. Instead, Tulski re-signs him to a two-year, kind of prove it deal, like good money, but prove it deal.

And he winds up and trades him for Miko Renton. If you had told me last spring that Marty Natchez was essentially going to get traded for Miko Ranton, and I would have been like, what freaking magic is Tulski doing here? Because that's not possible. So this is, this is, this is GMing at its best, right? when you are not selling low on someone and you are taking a chance on them and you convert them into gold, which is what they've done here. This is why people are so high on Tulski because he's got the guts to do the bold move,

but he's also smart enough to do it at the right time. Yeah, and we can already see how much this elevates Carolina, right? Dom had in one of his columns over the weekend, they came in before the trade with a 9.6% chance to win the Stanley Cup. That is already up to 12.7. So you add basically a third of your odds on top of what you had there. I know these are still small numbers in theory. I'll be honest.

I don't know what the hell that means. Whoever we're talking about these predictive odds, I always just like, no. Like, we need the hockey's too random. Like Don does so much good work. But it's always the Stanley Cup odds always crack me up. They are so, it's way too fluky as sport to be talking that specifically about the numbers. No way. The thing is, though.

The thing is, though, is that teams have metrics and formulas like this to deem whether. Of course they do. And they're just as nonsense. Maybe, but like, but it may be their nonsense, but the teams use these models to determine whether a swing is worth. Are you telling me Eric Tulski used his computers? I don't believe you. I believe the Cubs when they won the 2016 World Series, they're like odds. When they traded for a Roldus Chapman at the trade deadline, like, the,

the computers, like their model told them that that move would just like, I mean, incrementally, but like by a few percentage points increase their odds. And they were like, that is enough of a jump to where we have to give up Glaborator. Yeah, but then if the wind's blowing in from right field on a certain day, the odds change, like it's just, there's too many variables. I've just, well, we're talking to, oh, they're 3% chance better. That doesn't mean anything than me. Maybe it meets something to them.

It doesn't mean anything to me. The hurricanes are better than they were and they already work up contenders. Now they are stronger cup contenders. I don't know how you put in a number on that is all I'm saying. I'm derailing the conversation. I apologize. Yeah, it's an attempt to do exactly what you're talking about. It's an attempt and it's probably not a thing that makes any mathematical sense to me.

Granted, I'm not a mathematician here, but still. Yeah, you guys just said the same thing. Like, it increased their odds by 3% and you said they went from. Yeah, they're better. Yeah. That's all it means. They're better now. They've got a better player.

They're better. We had to put math into everything. A little bit. Yeah. You kind of do. And here's another one here. Maybe this one will play better to you from our friends at BetMGM, right? The hurricane is now the favorite to win the Eastern Conference at plus 300,

second to only the Edmonton Oilers for Stanley Cup odds on BedMGM at plus 650. The Oilers at plus 600. So how about that? They're that close to the Oilers as the Stanley Cup favorites. Does that do anything for you? Well, I mean, that's the interesting conversation here, right? You look at that Eastern Conference, and I still don't see an obvious choice to come out of right? To me, Florida is going to be the best team until proven otherwise.

But I also have seen Tampa and Pittsburgh and Chicago. That third straight year of a deep playoff run is so grueling and agonizing that it's hard to pick on. So yeah, I look at the east right now and I'm probably leaning Carolina, but I don't feel good about it because it's just like last year. They went out and they added Gensel. They finally got the finisher they needed. Still didn't have the goaltending. So now you add Ranton and even better finisher than Gensel. Still don't have the goaltending. If you're going up, even the Rangers who are going to be squeaking into the playoffs at some point.

And if it's Igor Shyrkirskine on one and Freddie Anderson on the other, yeah, hey, six to five or pick them. I think that there is, I have, I share concerns about the goaltending. I also think that it to some degree does just come down to like, can they get one good run out of either Kachkov or Anderson? When the Avs won in 2022, not to keep like bringing that up, but they didn't have great goaltending. There were some, I think like one of the Hawks years, didn't they not have awesome goaltending? Oh, Ante Nehemi. Yeah, we see this all the time.

Jordan Bittington is not a world-class goalie. And vague, I guess Aden Hill was not a world-class goalie. Except I think there is a distinction because those two goalies, Hill and Bittington, played exceptionally well in the playoffs. Whereas Nehemi and like the Kemper. Well, yeah, you can win despite your goaltending, absolutely. Yeah, or just like getting kind of a base level. It's hard.

It's hard. You have to be, and what you have to be is an extremely good team of skaters. And I think Carolina is that now. I would love to see them make a move for a goaltender. I don't know who's out there. And I don't know, maybe it's just honestly getting another body in there and see it, like maybe having Peter Morazek, like you can just have an extra option. last year we saw them switch goalies mid-series between Freddie Anderson and Kachak-Kov and then back to Anderson,

which was odd and didn't work. But like I don't, I don't know. Like it's their in for an interesting kind of lead up to the trade deadline because I don't think there's not a goalie on the market that's going to make them marketly better. Like their goalies are fine. Freddie Anderson is a pretty good goalie most of the time. Kachkov is a good young goalie. There's not a better option out there that's going to be on the market. I mean, even if they did want like a Peter Marazic, he's not having a good year at all.

Like, there's not a guy, there's no savior coming. This is the goal setting they're going to have. And I'm just not convinced you can win four playoff rounds with either of those goalies. Yeah. As good as this team is. And this team is very, very, very good with an extremely good coach. Like there's so much to like about Carolina. There's a reason that every year, the athletic, we do our, you know, preseason predictions,

and we're all on the Hurricanes bandwagon. We all love this team. This is a great team. Just don't know if they have the goal tending. I mean, to your point, when you're picking playoff series, I'm half the time, maybe more than half the time, just gone who's got the better goalie, right? As simple as that is.

So let's go through some of these teams. Who's got the better goal? Let's start with Florida, as you said. Florida's got the better goal than Carolina. I think we'd all agree with that, right? Sergey Bobrovsky. Washington Capitals between this year they sure do. I think so, right?

And I think even if you look at last year, Lingren was, I think you can say even beyond. this year like you have more faith. New Jersey. Jacob Markstrom's better goal with it. Yeah. Okay. So that's the metro.

That's three teams in the metro that we like over them. Or sorry, that's two teams in the metro in Florida. Toronto. Push. If Solarz is in there, maybe. Well, so that's good. I'd give that a push.

Ottawa with Linus Allmark or Boston with Jeremy Swayman. I'll take Ottawa and Boston. So they're going to be, and obviously we haven't even got to the New York Rangers who will talk about in the show with Igor Shasturkin, who might be the best or one of the two or three best goalies in the league right now. Very real chance that Carolina goes into this East playoff field with the eighth best goalie in the East. And they might still be the best regular

season team. I could see them coming, you know, getting passing Washington at the end of this season for points or second in the conference in points right now. And I could see them being that good. They are always a great regular season team. It's different in the playoffs. The games are tighter, the goaltending is more important. And, like, again, Freddie Anderson has a bad history of playoff hockey when it matters the most. And, you know, I don't know, Kachkov, we just don't know yet. It's a huge concern, and it's not something they can address.

That's the problem. And I didn't even mention Vasilevsky. Yeah, he's good. He's better. Not to mention with Freddie Anderson that he hasn't been healthy for a lot of this year. So there's not only the- Which is always an issue with Freddie Anderson, too. It's an availability concern as well as a level of play concern.

I'm a little, Jesse Granger wouldn't like this, but I'm sometimes a little less. I think goaltending is very important, but I think on the scale of like, do you need an elite goalie to win? I'm a little less. I think I just look back at the recent, like, teams that have made or won Stanley Cups. Like Stuart Skinner got to game seven of a Stanley Cup final last year. Can Freddie Anderson be Stuart Skinner? Yeah, I think he probably can be. Can he be Darcy Kemper slash Pavel Frantzos?

He probably can be. Can he be 2023 Sergei Babroski, who I think wasn't even the starter going into the playoffs or at least in part of the playoffs? Like, I think that this isn't me picking the Carolina Hurricanes. But if you look at like Toronto or Carolina, I think it's possible to have a good enough group of skaters around them that you can overcome lesser goaltending. All right. So here's my next question with this.

And as you talked about kind of how this can be random, maybe that's part of why it's hard to put these percentages on it. That's why we're talking about the goalie situation here. If Carolina doesn't make a deep run here and they've gone kind of all in this way, what are the implications of that here, Peter? And do they need to resign Miko Raton to make this trade pay off? Or is this fine to do as an all in? You know, Nate just didn't have that much term.

it's fine to do one way or another. I mean, I think they should try to sign Mika Ranton. For sure. We don't know what his interests are. He hasn't even been to Carolina yet. He's been on the road this whole time. So we'll see kind of how he adjust while he's there. But I think you try to re-sign him no matter what.

And if you don't win, honestly, I think you just keep taking kicks at the can. And that's, I'm sure, really frustrating. This is a team that has consistently been really good and hasn't ever gotten particularly far in the playoffs. They've gotten to the Eastern Conference Finals, but they got swept by Florida a couple years ago. But I think that sometimes you just have to keep being a really good team and maybe you'll push through. And maybe you do that and you become the 2019 Blues and win a cup, or maybe you do that and you become the San Jose Sharks and never get one. And it's a bummer. But I think you just keep essentially worthwhile either way, you're saying. Yeah, just keep rolling it back,

keep trying. Use if Randen leaves, use the cap space, take another big swing like you did. with Gensel like you did with Rantinan. And then you just, like you said, Mark, it's a sport with a lot of lucky bounces. And they very well could have beaten the Rangers last year if there was a bounce here or a bounce there. Well, that's just, I remember I covered that Rangers hurricane series with you, Peter, last year. And when it was three nothing Rangers, I wrote a call about how the hurricanes, they got to

rethink this whole thing because they had built a regular season monster that wasn't getting it done in the playoffs. And I think this is the kind of move that can push them in that direction. they're thinking more star power than, you know, the overall team game because you do need to, you need stars to win in the NHL in any sport. You really do need some guys that can just drag you into the fight and, you know, come up with the big goal when you need it. You need that Matthew Kachuk type, right?

That guy who was just wired differently and they didn't have that. So Miko Randton, and he's kind of wired that way. He might be that guy. But there's still, if they come up short again with this, regardless of whether they sign Ranton or not, I disagree with the kicking at the can. You've kicked at the can enough times, and you've got to rethink this whole thing. I'm not saying blow it up. That's not at all what I'm saying.

But they have so much cap flexibility that they can take this in almost any direction they want. They can rethink the way they do this team because the way they do this team wins a lot of regular season games. It has not proven yet to win. This might be the year that that changes and if it does great. But if they do come up short, if they win one round again this year, they need to really take a long, hard look at what they're doing, what Brindamore is doing, what Tulskiy's doing, and say, is this. good enough to actually win a Stanley Cup. And I will say, I think that when I say kicking the can, I don't mean doing the exact

same thing. Like, I don't think trading for Jake Gensel was the exact same thing that they did in 2023. And I don't think trading for Ranton is the exact same thing as getting Gensel. I think what I'm saying is you just keep trying to be really good and you keep trying to win. And maybe you prioritize upgrading goalie or make a decision. But I think that you have this core there with Aho. was Svachnikov, was Slaven, like, you know who these guys are, and I think you keep kind of going with those guys.

Oh, for sure. Yeah. Like, I'm, I'm just saying that I don't think you need to do anything drastic. I'll also add, because you said something about, like, needing a guy in the playoffs, I don't know if either of you have seen this step, but I just want you to guess. Mika Ranton's played 81 career playoff games dating back to, I think the first year he made it with the Aves was 2018. How many points?

So essentially a full season. How many points do you think he has as in the playoffs? 90. 95. 101. He's pretty good. He is a dude. He's really good.

So let's talk about Rantanin and the Hurricanes. Look, let's already get ahead of ourselves and talk about next summer. Because Rantanin is going to be by far, he and Mitch Marner are both going to be UFAs this year if it gets to that point. And if it does get to that point, Carolina has so much to offer. maybe the best, the cleanest books in the league. They have the best cap flexibility in the league going forward. They've got Sebastian Ajo, who's a Finnish friend of Rantanin. They can sell them.

They've got the advantage of having him be there for a few months and getting comfortable there. And they've got the eighth year. And they've got tax. And they, yeah, there you go. Are they the favorites to land? Because Scott Powers and I had a story today, Chicago really, really wants to meet Randen.

And they think they can get them. And they're not the only team out there that thinks that. Well, I think he's going to hit free agent. I don't think Colorado makes this deal if they don't think he's going to test free agency at least, right? Like that he wants to at least see what's out there. That's my perception. I don't have intel to that effect, but that's my read on this. I think he would have, based on the reporting that's out there, I haven't done a ton of,

I don't cover the apps anymore, so I haven't done a ton of reporting myself on this. But based on what Pierre said, I think he, if the abs had gotten to a certain number, I think he would have extended there. And it just might not have. Maybe that number was so unrealistic for the abs that it never would have gotten there. But I don't think he's like hell bent on I must hit unrestricted. There was a quote in there from McFarlane saying he had the right to be a UFA. Like that that tells me that McFarlane is at least very braced for the likelihood that he was going to test that right.

I think that's more. And maybe we're getting into like semantics here. But I think that's more because McFarlane wasn't willing to go to the number. number that Randon's camp wanted. I would say, I don't think it's out of the question that he signs for an eighth year with, because what can happen is like not to accuse anyone of tampering, but I think that like agents generally can get a pretty good idea of what their client is worth on the open market before they hit the open market. And I think that Carolina can probably also get a sense of that and simply offer Miko if they want more money with an extra year.

And then he doesn't reach free agency because they know that Miko's camp knows that that's the most money possible. And that eighth year is a big deal when you're at his age. He's in his late 20s. That's his age 37 year. He's not going to get $14 million in the open market at that age. So that eighth year is a big deal at that age. So I don't think that it's a guarantee.

This is just from reading between the lines, not from any reporting I've done, but I don't think it's a guarantee that he hits on restricted free agency. But if he does, like Chicago should throw 15 million at him. Why not? Like what are like this is, they should need to start kind of getting going a little bit,

you know, like you don't want to rush or rebuild, but this is the type of player that you alter plans for. Don't want to rush a rebill. This is their third straight year. They're going to be on the bottom three in the league. There's been no rushing in Chicago, I can assure you. I'm saying like the Rangers, when Artemmy Panarin wanted to sign there,

that changed to the timeline and the plan. Miko Ranton is that type of player. For Chicago, they've already gotten so many. The pipeline is so overloaded. They're probably going to be in the top two or three of the prospect pool rankings we're doing right now. They are so loaded. They have so many guys coming in.

They had 10 first round picks over the last three years. alone. They've done that part of the rebuild now. So they're at the point where I think maybe in Kyle Davidson's head, they were thinking about 2026 a little bit, but it feels like the seats heating up just a little bit. Fans are starting to get a little pissed because the Bertuzi and Tara Vinen signings didn't really move things along. Like they're just as bad this year as they were last year. And there's a sense of urgency now that, you know, the attendance is dropping just a little bit, that maybe they have to do something this summer. And Rantaninan or Marner, frankly, I think Marner is probably a better fit.

I think his game would be great. I think Rantanin is. I think they don't have anybody like him. And they don't really have any of that much like Marner. But if you look at their pipeline and what's coming, they're all little guys. They're more. They're small, speedy guys. They need that power guy. I think above Marner, I think it's rare. I just see, I see Marner is a better 200 foot player than Rantanin. And again, we're splitting hairs here.

Rantan is phenomenal as we've discussed. And I'm sure Connor Bidar would be happy to bounce pucks off him into the net all day long. but, you know, I think Marner might be the kind of two-way force they need alongside Bidad, but either one of those guys would make a just quantum leap for this Chicago team as, you know, Frank, Frank Nazar, he's got five points in his last four games. He's looking the part. They're starting to get guys up, but that would turbocharge things and excite the fan base to a point that I think they're finally starting to feel a little pressure to do.

I'd take Marner, or I'd take Ranton and over Marner for what it's worth. I mean just because I think that you can find you find or like trade for the good 200 foot type players that can be on the penalty kill and do things like that. I don't think Ranton is a slouch defensively. Like I think he. No, I wouldn't mean to apply. He was like a goal.

Yeah, no, I know. I'm just saying that I'm acknowledging that he's not like Marner plays on the penalty kill. Rantan and doesn't do that. That's all fine in Danny. But I think you can find some of those 200 foot guys for the middle six. I think when you're looking about at kind of like who they need to add, it's like I want a superstar that can play with Connor Baderd. Like you've got potentially one checklist item if Baderd hits, like checked off. Like you've got your center.

Now you need an elite wing and this is one that's available. So it would be an interesting fit. I kind of, I like the fit in Carolina. Like I think that would be fun if like he was a hurricane. it is interesting to one like it's going to be funny how when we look back at miko rannan's career like what team he will be remembered with like will he be remembered as a member of the avalanche will he be remembered as a hurricane a blackhawk like it's all it's you want his jersey retired already oh i do i don't think that actually give away 96 100% they retired i think that's

fair yeah they retired ray bork's number and adam foot's number and Miko Rantanin is, and Adam Futt played like almost a thousand games with the house. Like that's a different story. Ray Bork played a season and a half. I think that Miko Rantan, Rantin, Rantan, McCar, Lannis, Skag, McKinnon, all those guys. Those four should be up there. Here's my one thing. And this will be my closing thought, I guess, on this with Carolina.

The highest paid hurricane rate is Sebastian Ajo at 9.75. even if there's a discount with the tax in the eighth year, we're still got to be talking $3 million more than that, 1275 as like a floor, maybe 126, if you just want to clone the McKinnon number somewhere else. Like, are they really going to go $3 million above their highest paid player? Why not?

Why not? Is there anything in their history that says that they will do? Okay, yeah. Are we saying what they will do or what they should do? No, no, I think we all are in favor of it. Of course, they should reside up. You should absolutely. Yeah, like, to me, I'm like, the part of like the benefit of only having Aho at nine or whatever is you don't have the same concerns Colorado has with like McKinnon being at 12.6, McCar being at whatever his next number is.

Like, you can just give him what he wants. Oh, I do it. I'm just saying, is there any reason in their history to suggest they're going to go. I don't think. I think that culture they have in Carolina, like, it doesn't strike me as the kind of team that has those petty infights that we've seen in like, you know, what wasn't it? Was it Boston where there was like, you can't make more. money than Patrice Bergeron or it's a day or whatever it was. Like that's nonsense, man.

Like the cap goes up and salaries go up and that's just the way life works. Get the hell over it. Frankly, Mark, I don't think that I can't speak for Boston, but at least in, I don't think McKinning cared about that. I think that's what the front office is. Yeah, the front office ones. Yeah, yeah. McKinna would be happy to give him that money if it meant he got to keep having Miko

Ranthinen on his line. Yeah, yeah. I hope he hits free agency just because these guys never do. Like, if he, if Rantanthenan and Marner, both hit unrestricted free agency at the same time. Come on, man. We need some of that in the NHL. What have we seen it?

What are the, I mean, the last big star free agent was like Johnny Godreau probably, like hitting. Even Stamcoast, right? But he was, he was over, yeah, yeah. He wasn't going to get a seven, eight year deal. Yeah, Goodro is a good, that's a good comparison. Or Panarin. I mean, yeah.

Yeah, Panarin. It's in that territory. Yeah. Well, Tavares, we knew what was going to, it was one or the other. there. There wasn't a lot of, he was either going to Toronto or he was resigning on the island. Yeah. But they have two guys like this, two absolute world-class megastars hit the market at the same time that play the same position. Come on, let's do it. Let's go. All right. Let's take a break right there. We'll come back. We're going to talk about the New York Rangers. All right, we are back. And Peter,

we are approaching an hour here without even asking you about the team you cover now. We've hit hard your pass stop in Colorado. But the Rangers are playing better of late, kind of renewed optimism for a playoff push. I want to know how much of this are you buying? Obviously, I say this, we're talking on a night where they lost at the Colorado Avalanche. But are you buying their recent surge? And as we get close to the trade deadline, you know, where I got to lead you with that. Yeah. Well, it's funny. I was thinking back to, we talked over the summer about the Rangers versus the Devils and kind of compared them. And I was a little lower on the Rangers than, I think you were then. I can't remember exactly. But I definitely had some skepticism

them around the Rangers. Oh, yeah. And I kind of feel similarly to that. Like, I think they were a lot better than they played during that free fall. And I think we're seeing some of the law of averages work out. But I think Chris Drury essentially when he sent that memo to the other GMs of like Kreider, Truba and other roster players are available, the Rangers were 12, 6 and 1 when he sent that. Like they were in the standings doing well.

And that was a message of he didn't. think that the team was good enough despite the on-ice results. I think the team is playing better than it was then. I still don't think that this is a Stanley Cup winning roster. What that means he does at the deadline, I'm not totally sure. I think that there's a lot of smoke around J.T. Miller. I think the Rangers are certainly interested in J.T. Miller. I think it seems like J.T. Miller's time in Vancouver is probably coming to a close. That's a guy who, I think, if, if you're a If you're the Rangers and you're looking at what to do in these next few weeks leading up to the deadline, you want to add pieces that can help you in the long term. This is probably not a year if I were running the team to have like short term stopgap rentals because I don't know if this team is good enough to make a deep run with just like an added Alex Wenberger, Jack Roslavik like they did last year.

I think you've got to be thinking at longer term than that who can help you be on this year. what would you be looking at in a trade for J.T. Miller? What would the Rangers be giving up in a trade like that, do you think? Yeah, well, Thomas Drance, he kind of reported, you know, like what we do these, what we're hearing pieces. And he talked about how the package that there was a deal that got close with the Rangers and the Hurricanes, with the Rangers and the Canucks that it seemed like maybe some combination of Philip Heedle and a first round pick with, there's kind of different perspectives on, or I don't know exactly what the conditions on the first round pick or if there were conditions were. But I think that's kind of the meat of the trade is Philip Heidel, who's a really promising young center, who has a really unfortunate history with head injuries.

And then a first round pick. And to me, if you're the Rangers and that's kind of the offer, like if that's the framework of the deal, I think that that's more than worth considering. because I think J.T. Miller, that contract might not age great. He's on an eight-year deal at $8 million, I think. And there's risk in that, especially in the latter part of the deal. But I think while you have Panarin at age 33, while you have Cryder at age 33, Wells Bantagedet and Trochecker, 31, I think you've got to look to add to someone who can help push that group over the top because they're not getting any younger, as we've seen this year. and J.T. Miller, at his best, is still a player who can score 100 points.

So I think that's probably around what they're looking at, and I think that's something that they're going to have to consider if the price on J.T. Miller doesn't go up in the coming weeks. They have kind of an interesting future situation they're going to have to sort out on their blue line. And I don't know if that's something that they would address this deadline or if that's a wait until the summer situation, but you got Ryan Lindgren, who's been an important player for them in recent season. He's going to be a UFA. Kandre is going to be an RFA.

How do you see kind of the blue line picture for them going forward? Yeah. Well, we actually got a little more clarity with it this weekend when they extended Will Borgon, who was the kind of main addition that they got in the Capo Caco trade. A big physical defenseman who doesn't score a ton, but as Chris Kreider said today, delete space and is a good physical presence. And he's been a good fit. He had a brutal turnover today that cost the Rangers the game, but has been a good fit.

you have Adam Fox, you have your 1D, I think Braden Schneider is part of the long-term future of this D-Corps. And then you've got a lot of questions. Because Ryan Lingren, I think that for as much as he's meant to this team, it certainly feels like they're ready to move on based on. I think they looked around at what they could have gotten for him over the summer. He was an RFA then, and they ended up agreeing on this one-year deal to walk him to free agency. He's a name that will be interesting to monitor going into the deadline, whether or not the Rangers can kind of further cement themselves as like, oh, maybe this team could make a run, might determine whether or not they decide to sell on him because it doesn't appear like he'll be back next year.

Erho Vacchanin has been a pickup that's been solid in the Trubid deal. Like he's a serviceable number six defenseman. Do you bring him back? He'll be an RFA with a qualifying offer over a million dollars. And then Kianre, I think, is the big question. He's an RFA. And do you re-sign him for a pretty big number long term? Or do you move him in a trade that can bring you multiple good pieces back?

Because this is a guy who's in his early 20s who had 40-something points a few years ago, almost all at an even strength. This year, he has not helped his contract value or his trade value. But I think that's the guy they have to make a big decision with. And I think the others, they kind of have some sense of Lingren's probably gone. Fox Snyder, Borgon, they're here in the long term. What do you do with Keandre Miller? And then kind of you have to fill out the rest with your cap space. As bad as this team has been in that 15 losses and 19 game stretch and all that,

can you imagine? Right there. You win your division and you get a wildcar team and Igor freaking just Thurkens at the other end of the ice. That ain't right. It would not be fun. I mean, I think that Igor is good enough to win a series.

I don't know if he's good enough to carry the Rangers to four straight series wins with the way they're currently constructed. But he certainly isn't someone that, if I'm Carolina and I get the Rangers in the first round, I'd be... You might see some teams trying to get second place in their divisions. I mean, you're talking about Carolina.

Like, right now, if they were to get a wild card, which there's a pretty clear path to them still being able to do, you're talking about either Toronto or Washington. I think there's a chance that the Rangers could even be favored against Washington in the first round. Maybe. We'll see. I don't know. Like, this is still a flawed team.

It's a better team. And Igor plays well in the playoffs. And we've seen recently how tough they are to beat when Igor is at his best. But like, and I'm not saying they can't win around. I just, I think that it's not a particularly deep team and it does not have the star power as a lot of. of other teams. Now, Washington might also not have the star power. OV is not what he was 10 years ago. So I think that's a fair counter to my own point I made. But to go back to our original conversation here is a really great goaltending can mask things better than really great

scores can mask things. Totally. And we've seen Igor do that. Like he did that. The skaters on Carolina outplayed the Rangers last year. And Igor won. It was almost a sweep. Yeah, it was almost a sweep. And yeah, so we'll see. I'm still tentative to, like, be like this team is fully back as a Stanley Cup contender. It's not a team that I'd want to play in the first round. But also, the way, like, hockey is right now with the parody within this league, there's generally not, like, a first round opponent that you're super pumped to play.

Like, it made, there's just Washington last year was, like, the only example. Yeah, I think you can find, like, usually, like, the team that has the, I mean, two years ago, like Boston had the best record and lost to Florida in the first round. So, like, I mean, I look at the year Colorado one, they played a crummy Nashville team. It's usually like there's one, zero to one team, maybe sometimes two teams in a conference where you're like licking your chops of like, okay, we can just roll through this round. Hockey is not like the NBA where the like number one seat is going to win in four or five games every series. Right. But that would be, I think that's the difference is like if it's Montreal, if it's Columbus, I think.

teams are a little more like okay with that versus if it's the Rangers you're like come on what about the red it's a playoff test team too i don't think anyone's going to be too afraid of the redwings i don't think anyone's going to have to be too afraid of the redwings if you know what they're playing better they are they are playing better and and you know what i give them credit under top mcclund they've really ticked up the five on five offense which i thought was the one thing that no coach was going to be able to fix i'm not saying it's excellent but it's back closer to average which i didn't even know that they could really get to um with the group of guys they have so i i i i i do give them a lot of credit and certainly Tom McClellan a lot of credit. That has been a big

improvement. But we're not going to do Red Vings today. That is going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. Please, if you're enjoying the show, leave us a rating and review, preferably five stars. The Wednesday boys, Sean Jintilly, Sean McIndoo, and Frankie Carrado have the next episode for Mark and Peter. We'll talk to you soon.