The Athletic Hockey Show - How Oilers-Panthers Stanley Cup Final could become the best ever

Episode Date: June 16, 2025

This Stanley Cup Final between the Oilers and Panthers has delivered some incredible hockey so far, but there are still many questions left to be answered. What would it take for this to become the greatest Stanley Cup Final in history? Should the Oilers start Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard in goal for their must-win Game 6? Is Brad Marchand becoming the Conn Smythe favorite?Hosts: Max Bultman and Mark LazerusWith: Jesse GrangerExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. Hey, everybody. Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. Jesse Granger is going to join us a little bit later on to talk about what is suddenly becoming a fascinating consmite race, Mark. But I want to start with Game 5 and the guy who made it such a fascinating Con Smyth race because Brad Marchand, for everything you slandered him on last episode, slandered!

You said, well, you didn't really slander him. We were a little out in front of best deadline acquisition ever, but it's ageing pretty gracefully. He's starting to enter that conversation, isn't he? When you score in a couple overtime winners, you've got what five goals, and he scored in all five games? Is that what it is in the final?

He is right up there with Sam Bennett now in terms of the Khan-Smith race. And the story that it being Brad Marchand and not just some random guy or some longtime panther, I think it kind of almost adds to the lore that we're watching a build in real time. It's, I, whether he goes down as the greatest deadline acquisition or ever, I don't know. I still feel like that's, he's got a long way to go.

He has to score like a cup winner in overtime here. But man, what a story he's been. What a great addition to the playoff vibe for us. Just like his post game interviews on TNT, his general goofiness during the press conferences, talking about how handsome he is, lying about having Dairy Queen. I mean, this is the Brad Marshan playoffs. We're just in his world.

Yeah, absolutely. He scored in four of the five games, didn't score in the game four, but he does have six goals in the five games so far, which is just remarkable. And really, it's closed the gap on our guy, Sam Bennett, who we've been saying for like a round and a half now, hasn't been getting enough love. He is finally getting more love. Again, we'll get to that a little bit later. But Marshand, I mean, it wasn't just that he scored the two goals. Those are two of the prettiest, most skilled goals that you will see in a Stanley Cup final game. What do you think this guy's going to get on the open market this fall?

I mean, maybe he just stays in Florida because everybody just stays in Florida. But, like, he's 37 years old, and he was basically being written off as an impact player by midseason this year. Does someone jump at him and give him like a Patrick Marlow contract that maybe they live to regret? Does he get a one-year deal somewhere? Or does he just, like, live out his retirement here in Florida? I don't think he's taking a one-year deal. I mean, I think he's going to get multiple years. I think the number's going to start with an eight.

I mean, he's been really, really good. Does someone grow to regret it? Hey, that's possible. He's, what, 37 years old here? Like, this is where the cliff can come at any moment. But we're seeing right now the cliff hasn't come yet, right? I mean, he is still very much a highly impactful player. I do think ideally he needs to be on a team that can put him in these kind of big game situations.

Yeah. Because I don't think this is happening on a team that's just like fighting for the fringes of the playoffs. But you put a guy like this in these kind of moments and it's magic. And that's what we're seeing. Yeah, I don't think he's going to go out and score 35 goals in the regular season next year. But if you're a playoff team, just stash him away on your third line throughout the regular season, keep him healthy, and then just unleash him when the games matter most. That's when Brad Marchand is going to make your impact. That's when Brad Marchand is going to make his money. I think it's amazing to how many different ways he's made his impact in these playoffs.

In the Toronto series, it felt like so much of it was about the little things. It was about, hey, get to that puck, win that battle, shoot it out front. In this series, it's been score the goal, score the short-handed goal, score the highly skilled goal where you split. four defenders off the face off. It's every which way that he's doing this. And that's Brad Marchand for you. I mean, that's why everyone's loved him for as long as they have or hated him in some cases because he can just beat you so many different ways.

He's also out there just like winning faceoffs from the wing. Like just insert, he talks about, you know, Jonathan Tage just always talk about how he cheats on faceoffs. It's the only way to be good at faceoffs. And Brad Marchand is doing it from the wing, which is kind of incredible, how impactfully is in these little things. And we're going to remember, you know, the way he's dancing through the, Edmonton defense, but those little things that he does, not just the vibe he brings,

not just the sandpaper, but the way he can go out there and just influence a single possession, a single shift, the way he can cycle the puck, the way he can get in on the forecheck, the way he gets in opponent's heads. I mean, when you combine that with the goal scoring, it's just been an incredible performance by him. So you joked about staying in Florida. I don't think that's going to be possible, at least if they're keeping Bennett and or Eckblad, right? Like, Marchand becomes very, very tough to keep. I talked about Toronto right after, like, I think in the minutes after that series, saying that's who I would, that's who I would be chasing if I were the Maple Leafs. The funniest possible

outcome here, though, is that he just goes back in signs with Boston, isn't it? We always say how that's going to happen, and that never happens, right? We said that when the Blackhawks traded Patrick Kane, every time like a franchise icon gets dealt, we're like, well, they could just go chase a cup and then re-sign in the summer, and it just never happens that way. I still think Toronto's way funnier than going back to Boston. Like going back to Boston, Toronto would be hilarious. I mean, this is one of the most hated players

in Maple Leafs fandom history. And if he goes there as the saviors, the guy who can bring that playoff tenacity to them, like that's heads exploding right there. That's, that's when Cory Perry goes around and joins your team. It's like, wait, I've hated this guy for 20 years. How do I root for this guy now? We need

him, though. Like, Brad Marchand in a Maple Leaf sweater is the single funniest possible outcome. But I will maintain that's why all of those things you just said are why it is the best possible outcome. Oh, I agree. There's dissonance, but he is exactly what they need because he's exactly what has killed them. I mean, to me, there's no question that he's the best option on the market for them. I think you could even see them potentially get better that way.

If they lose Marner, which is certain they will at this point for nothing, and you only replace him with Marshang, that's a problem. Because like I said, Marchant's not going to bring that kind of offense all season long. and that'll affect your seating and that'll affect your home ice and that'll affect a lot of things in Toronto. But if you just get to the playoffs, having Brad Marchand could be a difference maker for Toronto.

He is exactly what they've been missing. He has an arrogance to him, like a defiance, like a well-earned air. I don't mean it like in a bad way. Like he goes out there just knowing he's going to beat you. And that's what we always see from the best players in the world, especially when they've won championships. That's the kind of arrogance the Leafs have

because they're so mentally fragile. And how did this become about the Leafs? How do we just had this inertia of all hockey podcasts must eventually become about the Leafs? And we did it six minutes in, Max. We will course correct. But I do want to stick on something you just said. You talked about the regular season record. Mark, you are our foremost expert at the athletic on how the regular season doesn't matter if you want to be a good team.

It matters for the bad teams and the teams that have accomplished nothing. It doesn't matter when you're the Florida Panthers. It doesn't matter when you're the Tampa Bay Lightning a few years ago. It doesn't matter when you were the penguins, when you were the Blackhawks, when you were the Kings. You have to earn the right to go on cruise control in the regular season. In Toronto, sure as hell is not. I don't know if I agree with that. I think you've got to shift your mindset a little bit on this.

I think you've got to look at it and say, we need to operate how the Panthers operate. And they're not sweating the one seat. They're not sweating home ice. By the way, what is home ice ever done for the Maple Leafs in the playoffs here? If anything, I think they're better away from it. And I absolutely think that in the big games, it's Marshand over Marner. I think he would make them better. We will course correct, though.

We don't need to do Leafs talk today. We're in the Stanley Cup final. What I do want to talk about, Laz, is another one of our hyperboleys from the last episode. Or maybe it was two episodes ago where I really tried to goad you into saying that this was the best Stanley Cup final of recent memory. You said that after two games. After two games, you said that. We've gotten another overtime since. So I'm not ready to totally back off of it.

I've also gotten a couple blowouts. Maybe I'm feeling a little less reverend. up than I was at that episode. But I'm going back, I'm looking through it, and I'm wondering, what is this one have to do? There's two games left. I think you'd agree. There's still time for it to be, at least in that conversation, if not the best Stanley

Cup final of, let's say, the cap era. What would it have to do to get there for you? Well, you know, you and I have been, we've talked about this a little bit off air. It needs that signature moment. It needs that thing that you remember where you were when you saw it. It needs Bobby O'er flying across the ice. It needs two goals and seven. 17 seconds. It needs Connor McDavid scoring a hat trick. It needs Mark Messier's guarantee. It needs

something like that because we're getting fabulous hockey. Game three aside, which was just an absolute stinker, which severely hurts its rating when you're talking about the all time series where you want every game to be so tense. It's been tremendous hockey. But I don't feel like it has that I'll never forget that particular moment. Like 10 years from now, this is all going to be a blur to us right now. It's like, oh, yeah, I remember the Panthers were, they repeated, and Edmonton, you know, had that big comeback in one game, but, like, you're not going to remember the minute details yet of any of these games. And those tend to come in games sixes and sevens. So, like, there's still plenty of opportunity for this to, to climb up the charts even

further. But it's been great. Like, I don't know, and nobody can complain about the quality of the Stanley Cup final. Yeah, I put a little list together, right? So I, I'm with you. I think it needs a signature moment at Patrick Cain deciding goal against the flyers. It doesn't have to be a goal. Mark Andre Fleury's save on Nick Littstrom and the dying moments in 2009. These are the kind of moments I'm thinking of. I think it does have to go seven games. I think now that we've had a couple blowouts,

I don't think a six gamer is going to make this one an all-timer. And I don't think there can be any more blowouts unless I think Edmonton could get away with not a true blowout, but Edmonton could get away with a lopsided one. We can't have Florida clinch this. with a lopsided win. And then it's just, okay, they were the clear better team. And the reason there was a couple of close games is that was Edmonton's best punch. I think if Edmonton wanted to run a six three up or something, you can live with that.

But the deciding game, the clinch game for either of these two teams would have to be, I think, a one goal game or a two goal game with an empty netter kind of deal. Yeah, I mean, game six needs to be really, really good. Game seven needs to be an all-timer, but game six still needs to be really, really good. Because we've had a couple of clunkers in this one. We've had, you know, they've been impressive in their own ways, and there's been memorable moments within those games, but nobody remembers a six to one game fondly.

Nobody looks back on that. So Tuesday night in Florida, that's got to be a big one. It's got to be good, you know, whether it's McDavid or Dryd-Dy. Leon Dreisel goes out and gets his fifth overtime goal of the playoffs, we can start talking, right? Like then we're setting up a game seven that has the potential to launch this one into the stratosphere. We're not there yet.

There's a lot of work that needs to be done. Right now, it's a really, really good final. It's not in that upper echelon. I wanted to ask you, what is your most memorable final of the Stanley Cup, of the cap era, excuse me? I said 09. Now, granted, I grew up in Michigan. So, yeah, the Red Wings Penguins heavyweight back to back was certainly like very top of mind. But I also think it lived up to it in a lot of ways, partly because of that signature moment with Mark Andre, Florida, Ed Littstrom.

But it was the rematch. It went seven games. I think six of the seven games in that series were decided by either one or two, but both of the last two games, game six and seven are one goal games. The tension of that series was just outstanding. But I did, my close runner up was 2010. And this was not a seven game series. And as I was prepping for the show, it surprised me that I felt this strongly about this one.

I think part of it is the cane goal. And I think that's one of the more iconic, you know, final seconds of a game ever. and Chicago's going down and celebrating, and they're kind of looking over their shoulder just to make sure that the goal is going to actually count as they saw it. But, you know, that whole series, four of those games decided by one goal in a six-game series. I think it lived up to it in a lot of ways.

See, I go to another six-game Black Hawks series. I go to 2013. I wasn't covering the Hawks yet in 2010. I was just a New York-based hockey fan in Chicago. And I loved that series. I was watching that with my friends. We were all die-hard Hawks fans, and it was great. But 2013, and now everything is colored a little bit by a series you cover.

Like, people keep saying this is the best hockey I've ever seen. I'm like, you don't remember the 2014 Western Conference Final between the Kings and the Hawks, two Titans at the top of their game. And then people like, oh, yeah, I do remember that. But like, you're always going to have those ones that you cover. And the 2013 final was the first one I covered. But that to me, you had, it was a six game series, yes. But you had, you know, two Stanley Cup champion teams, the 2010 and the 2011 champions.

So tested proven teams. no one's trying to break through for the first time. You had four overtime games in the first, I think, five games, including a triple overtime to start. All the games were one goal except for one, not counting empty netters. And the way it ended, 17 seconds. Like, if you just say 17 seconds in Chicago, everybody knows what you're talking about,

because to me, that's the single greatest ending in Stanley Cup final history. I talk about this all the time. We had a story about after Tyrese Halliburton had that three at the last second, They were soliciting stories from writers about what happens when your story blows up on deadline. Well, that was mine. Because losses don't become wins in hockey, right? Losses become ties at the last second.

Then you got an 18-minute overtime, and then you got who knows how long until that game becomes a win. Well, in the game six of the 2013 Stanley Cup final, a loss became a win. You hit a three-pointer down two. You scored a touchdown down four. The Hawk scored with about a minute and 16 left, And then they scored again with 59 seconds at Dave Bowling with the winner. That to me is the greatest, most shocking,

most unprecedented ending in Stanley Cup final history. When you factor in everything else that happened in that series from the triple overgame, overtime game right off the bat in game one. I still have scars from David Craichie hitting the crossbar in the first overtime. I probably shouldn't say this,

but there's always a game-winning goal pool among the writers. Everyone throws in 20 bucks. You draw a name out of a hat. I had David Craichie, and I lost $720 when that puck the crossbar, but there's all these little moments throughout that series that if you were locked in on that one, to me, that was as good as it gets. Now, it's interesting. So last year,

CJ did a ranking of every Stanley Cup final in the in the cap era. And his number one was none of the three we just talked about. His number one was 2024 Oilers Panthers. Now, he wrote this on the eve, I believe, of game seven or right after game six when it was a three three series when Edmonton had roared back from down three O to tie this and force a game seven. But that was a good game seven. That was a two one game seven really tight. Like that thing, I mean, the final goal is is scored in the second period, but it was in play right down to the end. Why not that series? Why are we overlooking that one? The series was terrible. Like, I remember, I remember when CJ wrote that story. I think I texted him. I'm like,

are you, the recency bias is such a hell of a drug. Like, the overall, like, wide-ranging narrative of that series was amazing with the three-0 comeback, with, with, McDavid scoring 40-something points and all the cons might talk. That series was so much fun to talk about, it was just a bunch of blowouts. Most of that series was trash. When that series was 3-0, we weren't talking about, oh, this is amazing hockey, right? That series was great from a sports writer's perspective, from a pundits perspective. Like if you're talking narratives, oh my God, that series had narratives.

But the quality of play and the tension in the games themselves wasn't high enough to, you know, you're talking 0-09, amazing, 2010, amazing, 2013, amazing, even 2014. The Rangers lost to the Kings in five games. Four of those games went to overtime. You had the little snow pile stopping the puck behind Henrik Lunquist in the last second. I can name a dozen series that were better, higher quality of hockey and competition than last year's Stanley Cup final.

That was just a great narrative. Like, I loved it. It was fun to read about. It was fun to talk about. But the quality of hockey was low. A couple other I wanted to kind of shout out as maybe honorable mentions. I thought 06, Hurricanes Oilers, a very good series. It's scratching the early reaches of my like hockey memory there.

That's the Cam Wardier, right? Yes, I think I was 10 years old for that series. But especially as I went through and was researching, that one really stood out. Four of the seven games decided by a goal, 2011. The blowout clincher, and I just watched the documentary. So actually, this is fresher for me. The blowout clincher, I think, takes some sizzle out. But then we remember it for a whole bunch of off ice reasons, too,

that I think make it kind of an iconic final, whether you're... That's more like last year, right? We're like the outside noise and narrative, just the Vancouver of it all, because Vancouver is such a crazy, crazy town in terms of its hockey fans. That did have my favorite front page in the history of newspapers. You know, I think it was the Vancouver's son. I can't remember which the Vancouver paper was.

but the centerpiece image was like the handshake line and this giant hammerhead said, Noble in defeat. And then all across the banner page, across the top of the page was riots in Gruff, Vancouver. It was just the funniest juxtaposition of like these noble athletes handling losing in such grace. And then city melts down around us.

Angry mob of fans. Oh, man. All right. Well, yeah, work to do for this series, but I still think it's in play. I still think that if we get really good game six, really good game seven, this could top my list.

It's very possible. We do need the iconic moment. It's so hard, and that's why you do need the iconic moment, right? Because, like, you mentioned 2006. I have not thought about that series

probably in 19 years since it ended. And now all of a sudden, I'm like, oh, yeah, that was a great one. And I remember this and that. I remember this, that.

And that, like, it doesn't have that signature moment that instantly brings you to it and makes you think of these. Like, you know, doesn't have a 17, seconds. It doesn't have Connor McDavid with 40-something points. It doesn't have that one anchor that like, oh, that's the series where this happened. The Patrick Kane, nobody saw it goal. The riots in Vancouver. The braid and Holtby save. Like the flurry save. It doesn't have that. So that's what this series still needs because it is very easy for us to get lost in the moment and think, oh my God, this is so amazing. And that's what's so fun about sports is you can get wrapped up in it in the moment. But then two years from now, will we remember the 2025 Stanley Cup final?

Or will it be like, wait, which was the one that McDavid won the Kahn Smythe and the losing effort? Which one was that? That, it's very quickly going to like fade off into that because we all have very short attention spans. And probably because we're staring at our phones all day. But we always forget, like, 06. I kind of want to go back and like relive that series and reread some of it now because I remember that being a great one. And it's not one anybody ever thinks about outside of Raleigh. All right.

So there's the challenge laid down to the players. Make this a memorable one or we'll forget you by tomorrow. I'll take a quick break right there. All right, we are back, and we are joined now by the athletics, Jesse Granger, who is here to answer the question on everyone's mind, what on earth does Edmonton do in goal for game six? Yeah, it's an interesting one because these guys are so close statistically. The other than the records, which fans love the goalies win-loss record,

is something I've learned on Twitter. So do the GMs when voting for the Vezna? You're not wrong, you're not wrong. And it's a big reason why Stuart Skinner was put into the game the other night, because it wasn't a pull of Stuart Skinner because of how poorly he was playing. I thought he was their best player by far in that first period while they were getting just absolutely lamb-baseded. He's the only reason they even had the chance to make that comeback in the first place. And his reward was to sit on the bench to watch them do it. So it's going to be super interesting to see what they do.

I will say that I think that the outside perception is that Calvin Pickard has played way better than St. Stewart Skinner, and that's just not true. I'll read some numbers. Stuart Skinner 891 save percentage, Calvin Pickard 886, so Pickers is worse. A goal saved above expected, which is my favorite stat for goalies. Skinner stopped 4.3. Calvin Pickard down at negative 0.28, so it's not close. Stuart Skinner's clearly better than that. Another stat that I think is super important in the playoffs, and like I've talked to goalies that have told me, I don't care what my safe percentage is and losses in the playoffs. Tell me what my save percentage is in wins, because once you've lost the game, sometimes it gets out of hand, and that can screw up your numbers. I want to know how often

do you have a good game that gives your team a chance to win? And above average save percentage, Pickard, or sorry, Skinner has done that in six of his 14 starts. So not quite half, six of his 14, Pickard has only done it in two of his seven playoff starts, has he posted a safe percentage above the league average, two out of seven, and yet he's seven and one in those games. And the big difference is, the Oilers are scoring four goals a game with Pickard in net. They're scoring three goals a game with Skinner in net. That's why one of them's got a better record than the other one. And if you want to argue that by some magical witchcraft, the Oilers play better, they somehow like Calvin Pickard more. so they want to score more goals for him.

That's an argument, I guess. But outside of that, outside of the fact that the Oilers tend to score more goals when Pickard's a net, I can't find a reason to pick Calvin Pickard in this game. To me, Stuart Skinner is the better goalie. He's played better in these playoffs. His ceiling is much higher. Like, when Calvin Pickard has a good game,

he's still kind of all over the place. He makes a couple big saves and you get the win and it's like, you remember those two key saves he made, but he was kind of all over the place. That's just his style. When Skinner has a good game, the Vegas Golden Knights go 127 minutes without scoring and lose the series. So to me, the ceiling on these two is the ceiling for Skinner is higher.

And if I was the Oilers, I'd be shooting for that ceiling and hoping we can get a goalie who can get us two wins in a row here. I would go with Skinner. Here's the thing that dawns on me while you're rattling off those statistics. They're all terrible. Yeah. Like those are bad goalie numbers for either of them. They are.

You're picking the lesser of two evils at this point, right? Like, you are genuinely like, who's going to screw this up less for us? Like, you can't really feel terribly confident in either of them. And while it does seem to be this narrative that, oh, the Oilers just play better in front of Pickard, he has the vibes, whatever. I do think you go with Skinner. It's the dance with Who Brung you, right? Like, if you lose with Skinner, you're not going to get second guess the way you will if you lose with Pickard. So if you're going to, if you don't feel great about either of these guys and despite everything they'll tell you,

there's no way they feel great about either of these guys, you go with your number one goalie, and that's Stuart Skinner. Yeah, and I'm always, when I make, like, when it comes to these decisions, I'm always a proponent of, like, big picture, because goalie stats, the smaller the sample size, the crazier they can get. Like, Sergei Bobrovsky could have horrible stats for a few games, but that doesn't mean the Florida Panthers should go away from him. And when you look at the, like, small picture stats, Skinner, like I said,

enlisted them all off, Skinner's better. But also big picture, Stuart Skinner's second all time in Oilers history behind Grant Fure in playoff wins. Like, this postseason, he passed Bill Ranford and Andy Moog in playoff wins in the history of the Edmonton Oilers. Calvin Pickard played like 36 games in the NHL over four years. Sorry, no, that's too many. Twelve NHL games over four years in the NHL prior to last season.

So it's like one of these guys is a clear NHL goalie who's been an NHL goalie his entire life. And is he great? No. Is he elite? No. Is he better than Sergey Bobrovsky? No, but he is a legitimate NHL who has a ton of playoff wins. And the other one is a career journeyman, half-AHL, half-NHL guy who had a couple big saves in big games. And yes, is Calvin Pickard super important to this cup run? Yes, if the Oilers win it,

he deserves to hoist that cup. He's a big part of it. But he's not the same quality goalie of Stewart-Skitter for me. Yeah, I mean, it sounds like the risk that you're describing as, hey, yeah, you can play Stuart Skinner and chase the upside, but he might play like a backup goalie. Let's just play the backup goalie. Like, you're sacrificing all the upside for basically certainty with no upside. Yeah. And again, it's like Pickard, he makes some big saves, but he also, like I said, two out of, I don't think most people would have guessed that.

If you were to ask most people that have been watching these playoffs, what percentage of Calvin Pickard's games have been above the league average save percentage? two out of seven is a shockingly low number for that. And it's much lower than Skinner's stats. So it's like he just hasn't given them the quality performances that it feels like he has because his record's seven and one. And they've been, and like prior to that loss, like they had been, you watch the TV broadcast. It's 6 and 0. They show it every chance they can possibly get.

That's the number that we've all been looking at. It makes you feel like Pickard's been better than he actually has. And it's just because the other score a bunch of goals. And the thing is, like Mark said, they're going to have. have to score a bunch of goals no matter who's in net because yes, Skinner has had some shutouts. I am not predicting one for game six. I think he's going to give up a couple goals or pickered, whoever they put in there. It's the Oilers have got to score goals if they're going to come back and win this series. I'm not expecting you to have this stat on hand. I probably should

have slacked it to you yesterday to see if you could get it for me. Do you know what Skinner's record is though, like after a game that he sits? Because I feel like when he comes back in after sitting, not like being pulled, like a full sit. I feel like that's when we usually do see really good Stuart Skinner. Yeah, I don't have the stat in front of me, but I totally agree with you on the, like, my memory of Skinner coming back from things that are difficult to come back from for goalies, he's excellent at it. Like, even last year in the playoff run, they pulled him for Pickard. He came back. He's already done it once this year. Obviously, Pickard got hurt. So it was, it wasn't that they were going back to him. It was that Picker got hurt. So he had to be thrown in. But yes, I'm like, and like,

if you ever talk to Stuart Skinner, he is like the calmest person. Like, he's just, almost robotic, how calm he is. He has the perfect demeanor for this. Like, they've kind of jerked him around in this playoffs. And like, it's, it's not the most confidence-building thing to keep constantly getting pulled for Calvin Pickard. But I feel like he has the personality to handle it better than a lot of goalies would. Like Sergei Bavrovsky, for example, he's a fiery guy. I don't think benching Sergei Bavrovsky for backups would go quite as smoothly as it has for Stuart Skinner. He just, he just seems to, you throw him back in there, he's just back to his normal self. And again, he's not an elite goalie, but I think he's a very good goalie, and he can play

good games. So they're going to need it. I think he can absolutely deliver. I'm not worried about his level of play based on the fact that he was pulled two games in a row. I mean, you alluded to this, Jesse. It feels like no matter what, the Oilers are going to have to score probably four or five goals to win game six. And it's kind of weird. How are we feeling about Connor McDavid right now, guys? Because he is tied for the lead in the playoffs and points with dry side of it. He's got 33 points in the playoffs. He is having, by all possible definitions, a monster playoffs. And yet, it kind of feels like this is such a step back from what he was able to do last year, right? He's only got seven goals. And you start looking at the underlying numbers, and I was sipping through natural

stat trick earlier today. He's got 66 individual scoring chances, 28 individual high danger chances. That is so much more than anybody else. And this is just at five on five. And he scored five goals at five on five. Like, how do we, we all know that this is what hockey, this is, this is hockey, right? The ebbs and the flow is and you're playing great. Matt Dushin went through this all throughout the postseason here with Dallas where you're producing and the puck just won't go in. And yes, McDavid finally scored in game five. Maybe that kind of opens the floodgates. But how are we for the, the bar is so freaking high for this guy that it's almost impossible to get for him to clear it. What does he got to do here to kind of, to kind of clear it, I guess?

But it's that high because he keeps clearing it. I mean, he keeps being exactly that. The story of this game six to me is Florida's killer instinct versus Edmonton's survival instinct. And McDavid, we see over and over again, you back him into a corner at your own peril. That's what we saw when they went up 3-0 last year. He comes out and plays with his hair on fire. Obviously, you know, you got to see him get over the hump at some point, I think, to keep making that case. But it's a team sport.

And I think over and over again, we see him do this. we see him be at his best when his best is needed. And I think that's exactly what we're going to see in game six. Are you saying he's going to dig the F in right effing now? That's exactly what I'm saying. He's unreal. And like, and when you watch these games, when the puck's on his stick, it feels dangerous. It's not as if he's like invisible out there.

Like every time the puck's on his stick, you're like, what's going to happen now? So, yeah, I mean, it's, I fully expect an awesome game from him. It's funny. He, I mean, he's still, we'll talk about it after the break. He's still up there in cons my thoughts, even though he's having. what we consider a disappointing postseason. And if the orders are to win the series. He's disappointing us with 33 points.

Victim of his own success. Like you said, the bar is ridiculous because he's the best player in the world. And I love the goal he scored the other night because he used the, I sent a tweet out about this. He used the perception that he won't shoot against Sergei Bavrovsky because Corey Perry was sitting in front of the net to Bavrovsky's left. And McDavid just gave him a little bit of a fake, and Bobrovsky just totally bought it because it's like, well, the dude's been passing on the back door every single time all series long. He's not going to keep it for himself.

And he did, and he made the best goal in the world look like a fool. So it's, yeah, I mean, it's when, and that's an interesting dynamic because now the next time here in game six, when McDavid comes in on Bobrovsky, now he's got different things going through his head. Man, last time he burned me, like it's, it makes things a little more complicated. maybe his reads aren't quite as confident. That goal could be, like, not just Spark for McDavid, but it also could put something in Babarovsky's mind when he's coming down on because you know he's going to get his chances. Can you imagine your brain working that fast while your body is also working that fast?

We're not talking about one of these, like, big older savvy vats who's coming in kind of coasting and they're all using their head. This dude is like roadrunner going around on the ice. And he's also doing these little deceptive things that he's like thinking the game three steps ahead of you. Well, this is what we talk about with like quarterbacks in the NFL, right? Like the amount of reads they're doing in the 2.2 seconds they have before 300 pound men come and murder him. It's just

incredible. That's what separates these athletes. Like, yeah, they're incredible physical form, but it's their mental acuity is their processing speed that allows you to be an NHL goalie. That allows you to be a Connor McDavid where we always talk about like there's been guys that fast in the NHL maybe, but they can't do the things he does at speed. And that's that's a physical gift, yes, but it's just

it's the hockey IQ, as they say, it's your processing speed that really sets these guys apart. All right, killer instinct versus survival instinct. That is the story of game six. We're going to take a quick break. We're going to talk about the cons smite situation. All right, we're back. And Jesse, we've been talking for a couple weeks about

the consmite dynamic here. Lazz and I, and I think you were with us when we were talking about Sam Bennett at 30 to 1 a couple weeks ago. That is gone. I actually would love to see if people did place that bet, send me a little screenshot. We'd love to root for you. Send me a little tithing. No, we can't do that, Les. Do send us a screenshot so we can root for you. The next one, we tease this at the beginning,

Jesse, before you got here. Brad Marchand is making a little bit of a push here. And he's, he's at plus 375, according to our friends at BetMGM, the official betting partner at the athletic, Bennett at minus 220. So hope you got in early. Marshan plus 375, dry sidle plus 800, McDavid, Mabrovsky and Kachuk, pretty big long shots. Is this Bennett's to lose at this point, or does he still have work to do to hold off Marshand? You know what? To me, I see it if Florida ends up winning, and they're up three, two, so we'll just start with that. I think if Florida ends up winning, I really do think it's a three horse race between Bennett, Marshand, and Mabrovsky. Before I looked at these odds, I expected those three to be like the clear favorites in kind of a tier of their own.

And the fact that Babrovsky is all the way down there at 12 plus 12,000. So 12 to 1 compared to 3.5 to 1 for Marchand and you have to lay money to bet Bennett. I was very shocked by that. I feel like whoever has a huge clenching game could be the guy. Like if Marshan scores the winner in game 6, I think it'll probably be Marshan. If Babrovsky goes out there and pitches a 35 save shutout, I think it's probably Bobrovsky. But if all equal, if none of the three have a big game, like say Sasha Barkov has the big game, then I think it goes to Bennett. Like that's, to me, that's where

Bennett is the clear favorite. Like if none of the three have a monster closeout game, I would probably lean towards Bennett. He leads the playoffs with 14 goals. He has the big moments. I think he probably is deservedly in the lead right now. But to me, and tell me if I'm wrong, but I just feel like if one of those three, Bennett, Marshand, or Barbarowski has a huge game, they're probably going to get the vote. I, two thoughts. One, you're crazy if you think Sergey Barbrowski has any chance of winning this cons smite.

You are absolutely goalie-addled crazy. He has zero chance. Like he could be third on a whole lot of ballots. He's zero chance of getting it ahead of Bennett and Marchand at this point. There's only two games left. He can't do an, and I think he's been great in these playoffs. Do not get me wrong. There's no way Bobrowski is getting a first place vote in this bunch.

Let's peel back the curtain a little bit about how the consmite works. I don't know if you, Jesse, I know you voted in the comments my twice. Max, someday, you'll be a real boy and get to cover a playoff series there in Detroit. But it's basically it's like 15 or 18 people get picked. It's usually like, you know, a third of them are local beatwriters for one of the teams. A third of them are local beatwriters for the other team. And then a third of them are like the national people who come in late. Now, remember, the national people have not been covering Florida all playoffs long.

They're going to be skewed by Marchand because it's recent. That happens a lot in these playoffs where if it's not an MP. be a finals MVP. This is an all-playoff MVP, but the final and sometimes the conference final get really heavily weighted because that's where a lot of the voters are really seeing the action. So that gives Marchand a bit of an edge here. I think the locals would very heavily say, well, this is clearly Sam Bennett. He's been doing it from the start. The record road goals, he's got the most goals. I still think it's Bennett to lose. And he injured the opposing goalie, too. Huge key for Florida's playoff run. He's very good at that. If nothing happens, these next,

in game six or game seven, like if Cardover Hagee goes out and has the big game, I think it's going to default to Bennett. Marshan can win it if he gets another big, big goal, especially if it's a game winner. But if the Panthers win, it's either going to be Bennett or it's going to be Marshan. And I think Bennett is still kind of a neck ahead. Now, here's my question.

Again, this is a question because I've never been there like you guys have. And you really have a big moment affect this when voting takes place before the end of a game. Yes, because you're allowed to put qualifier. on it. So you can you can literally write in your ballot. My vote is Sam Bennett. If Marshan scores the overtime winner, my vote is Marsha. I did that in 2014 with the king. It was Justin Williams and it was I can't remember who the other person was in 40. It might have been marrying Gabrick. And I remember because 10 minutes to go in the third period of a potential elimination game, clinching game, they take your ballot. And I did that. I said like, if Justin Williams scores another game winner,

switch my vote to him. So you can do that. You can put in the qualifiers like that. So they are. And honestly, if you just like text NHLPR and say, hey, switch my vote to this, they'll, they want the vote to be correct. They have to do it in advance. But they, that little time where there's like a handshake line and stuff, there's time to adjust your vote if something completely dramatic happens. That is so chaotic. I was thinking part of the reason I thought this was a perfect day to talk about it is that at five, every big moment that you could have conceivably prior to the vote is likely to have already happened, unless we get a game seven, right? But yeah, that's interesting.

Okay, so if you can do your conditionals on there, then yeah, I think this is, I think that's maybe more of a toss-up than the odds happen, actually. I think Marshan has to score a game winner again to take it from Sam Bennett, but he clearly can do that. I think if he does, it's easy, Marshand.

Like, as much as I agree, Bennett is ahead now, I think if Marshan scores the winner, I don't even think it's a question. It's easily Brad Marchand is. I think you're correct. The narrative juice is there, too. I mean, that is, right? That is the big part of it is we've, we've all been talking about Marshaun.

We did what 10 minutes on him today singing his praises, right? How can you not? What a freaking story the guy's been. It's awesome. And don't discount the people, especially the national people who, you know, I don't want to say they get influenced by the narrative, but they appreciate a good narrative. And Brad Marchand, frankly, is a better story than Sam Bennett. There's just no two ways around it.

So it's interesting, the politicking that goes on. Like, I guarantee you, when everyone's at the bar in Fort Lauderdale playing shuffleboard at one in the morning, guys are talking about their, you know, these writers are talking about their cons, smith votes, and who do you got? Who do you think? What do you think is going to happen? Like, we do talk about these things. And we kind of almost try to convince the other that we're right. And this happens. Like, this kind of politicking does go on.

It's a really fascinating dynamic at the Stanley Cup final. And two free agents, like the lobbying campaign for both these guys matters a lot. Yes. They are. They're both UFAs. And if you, if you, we've been talking a lot about Florida winning it, if you're out there and you're saying, I think the Oilers are winning. Right now is the time to bet Connor McDavid to win Con Smyth because he's, he's currently plus 750, seven a half to one. If the Oilers win game six, that number will not be that.

I promise that. It's going to be like barely even money. So, yeah, right now is the time to get in on Connor McDavid if you, if you're, if you think the Oilers are coming back. Can he really get ahead of Drysaddle at this point? Drysillot is four overtime winners. Can he really get a head of Drysiddle at this point? can he really get ahead of him? I mean, he would have to have the, I mean, to your point, Dry Seidels, odds are the same as McDavid. So if you think Drysidal, go ahead and bet him too. They're both currently at the same odds,

and they're well below Bennett and Marshand, obviously, because they're trailing in the series. But I don't know. Like, McDavid's got more points. Drysidle's got more goals. Drysiddle does have the moments. And two overtime winners in a cup finals, pretty incredible. I don't know.

Like, McDavid won it when the Oilers didn't even win the series. So if McDavid wins game six and game seven and overtime, he's going to win the consummate. Let's put it that way. But I think it's going to take something that dramatic. If he scores four goals over the next two games, he's probably going to win it. You said plus $750 for both? Yes. So that means that those have dropped since we pulled them.

So that means I think people are on this, right? People are taking note of this and going, that's a good deal. I am not passing that up at those odds. Yeah. And it could be either. You're right. You're right. It truly is a toss-up between.

them, that's why the odds are similar. And I agree that the Cup final overtime winners should probably put Drysidle in the lead. But the fact that it's just, it's always Carter McDavid's team, no matter how good Leon Drysidal is, it's McDavid's team. And if he's the catalyst for these next two wins, they'll probably give it to him. I could see, last, you did this with the Blackhawks. I mean, they don't typically like to give it to the same guy over. It's not quite like Super Bowl MVP where they really just kind of want to give

to Patrick Mahomes every time, right? I think there is kind of something about varying it. There's a narrative. Like in 2010, I didn't cover the 2010 again, but like I've heard the stories where everyone thought it should have been Patrick Sharp, but there was this kind of feeling from a lot of people that this is Jonathan Taves's time. We have to give it. And he had a great playoffs too.

And so like splitting hairs, let's, let's air on the side of the bigger star, right? And Kane won it in 2013, and it should have been Corey Crawford to, you know, to Jesse's goalie love. I mean, it was clearly Corey Crawford was the most important blackoff. And Kane was horrible. The first two rounds, he couldn't score. He didn't start scoring until, like, game four of the Western Conference final. But then he scored a bunch.

And that was what people saw. And the national people, every local, all six Chicago writers in that voting pool, pick Corey Crawford and Patrick Kane won. So that's how these things can be influenced at the end. There is a wanting to spread the love. But, I mean, you're making the right call. If it's Connor McDavid, you're going to pick Connor McDavid. Nobody's, like, trying to avoid giving it to someone who's already wanted it.

before, but again, when you're breaking ties, that might come into play. A lot to look forward to, certainly in game six, but that is going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Fletakki Show. Please, if you're enjoying the show, leave us a rating and a review, preferably five stars. And rumors are swirling that there might be a third Sean joining the Wednesday show this week alongside Frankie Carrado. Personally, I have my doubts, but you'll have to tune in to find out. Talk to you soon.