The Athletic Hockey Show - IIHF Men’s World Championship notebook, what can the Stanley Cup Playoffs Final Four tell us about the draft?, listener questions, and more

Episode Date: May 19, 2023

Max, Corey, and FloHockey’s Chris Peters discuss the IIHF Men’s World Championship and the play of guys like Cutter Gauthier, Lane Hutson, Matthew Coronato, Leo Carlsson, Adam Fantilli, and David ...Reinbacher, Corey’s Stanley Cup Playoffs Final Four roster composition analysis article about “what works” during the postseason, and how that information could apply to the NHL Draft, and a super-sized mailbag to close out the show.Subscribe to The Athletic Hockey Show on YouTube: http://youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowGet a 1-year subscription to The Athletic for $2 a month when you visit http://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Corey Pronman and Chris Peters of Flohockey for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show's Prospect Series. We got a fun show today. We're going to be talking worlds. We're going to be talking about the playoffs and what they can tell us about this year's draft. And, of course, we're going to have the mailbag. Before we jump in, I want to tell you about New York Times audio, a new iOS app for New York
Starting point is 00:00:49 Times news subscribers. It's got our show. plus other great podcasts from The Athletic, exclusive shows, narrated articles, and a lot more. New York Times Audio. Download it now at NYTimes.com slash audio app. Corey, Chris, how we doing? Doing very well. You know, we're in the main part of NHL draft season right now.
Starting point is 00:01:09 Men's worlds are going on. Combines a few weeks away. Got to make really exciting CHL final series going on. And, of course, NHL playoffs. It's great time for hockey. Yep, as Corey said, things are happening, Max. Let's get to it. Let's get to it.
Starting point is 00:01:25 Let's start with the worlds, Chris, because we're recording this just an hour or two after Team USA finished up their latest game, a win over Austria. And as we talk about kind of the drafted prospects, I think Team USA is really the team to hone in on here. And we can start probably with the player who went number five in last year's draft, Cutter-Goti. Yeah, you know what? Honestly, the U.S., they brought a lot of college guys, guys that were on college rosters this year. year, you know, had a tough time getting current NHLers. And in the end, I think it's actually worked to their benefit. And specifically, guys like Cutter Goce, who, you know, actually his world juniors was good. It was, it wasn't earth-shattering. It was good. This time at this tournament,
Starting point is 00:02:07 we're seeing the more mature, more prepared, and more confident Cutter Goce. He leads the team in shots on goal. He does have two goals in this tournament. He has dictated the pace of his shifts. he has taken pucks to the middle. He has made a lot of plays, and that has been very good. He also got moved up to the first power play unit, which both he and Lane Hudson started on the second unit. They moved up to the first unit,
Starting point is 00:02:30 and they want Carter Goce to be shooting, and that's what he's done so far. He's taking a lot of pucks to the net. So very good signs for what's to come for him. I think he's going to have a big season at Boston College next year. He's going to have more support, and we're starting to see the little, the foundation being laid for a very strong second.
Starting point is 00:02:47 season next year for him. Very encouraging early signs from Cuttergoche. I think he was a guy who when he went fifth or even the discussion going into the draft and we said he can go this high. I think some fans were surprised. Some were like, couldn't, you know, what about this guy? What about that guy? But I think you kind of see at this tournament why he was a fifth overall pick and why.
Starting point is 00:03:09 I think if you read the draft, he's going to go right around that same spot in the draft, I think. I mean, he has all the traits you look for. speed, skill, goal scoring ability, the size, you know, whether he'll play the middle of the wing, we'll see, you know, competes well enough. Like, there's, there's a lot there to his game to make you think he's going to have a very long and productive NHL career. Will he be a high echelon score? You know, we'll see with time. But I think he is an excellent pro prospect and looks like a fifth overall pick here at this tournament. USA hasn't necessarily played the most
Starting point is 00:03:47 daunting schedule so far. But I did think it's worth noting, Chris, four games in here, Lane Hudson, as one of the younger players at this event, one of the obviously smaller players at any event he's at, already among the tournament scoring leaders among defensemen. I think his plus minus number is already like a plus five or something. He had a pretty one today. What have he thought of Lane so far? Yeah, you know, it's a continuation of what he did this year at Boston University.
Starting point is 00:04:13 He's like, hey, you know what we jumped up a level? Doesn't matter. I'm going to play the same way. David Quinn has been very receptive to letting him be who he is, which I think is the most important thing. You don't want to try to change a player. Lane Hudson's not going to be a shutdown defenseman, but he is going to play confidently anytime you put him on the ice. And that's what we've seen so far. Four points through four games, a beautiful goal against Austria that put the game out of reach.
Starting point is 00:04:36 And just, you know, he also had an assist. And so he's a point per game player at this level. As I mentioned, he got moved to the top power play unit and has been very deadly, from there just in terms of moving pucks and distributing and getting pucks through. He's, you know, he's one of the best players at dancing the blue line at getting around guys to make a better lane for a shot. He's been able to do that here. You know, and even though the, the world schedule, the U.S. is definitely in the easier of the two brackets, but they did play Finland in the first game. Yeah. And they had a bad first period, not a bad first period,
Starting point is 00:05:08 but a week first period and then an incredible closing 40 minutes. And we got to see Lane Hudson get the responsibility in those late game situations to go out there and be part of that, that whole group. He's averaging about 16 plus minutes a game. You know, he's, he's not been on the ice. I don't know if he's been on the ice for many, if any, goals against at this point. You know, so this is a U.S. team that's really started to hit its stride with the young players playing the most significant role. You know, the thing that I think will, we'll continue to watch with Lane Hudson is just, you know, when they do play some of those tougher teams, when they play a Sweden, who they'll play at the end of the preliminary round.
Starting point is 00:05:47 You know, how he handles the different four checks that are thrown at him. They won't have the puck as much, you know, and so he's a guy that needs to have the puck on his stick. And so that's going to be interesting to watch. But the early indication so far is what we've seen throughout Lane Hudson's career, which is that he's dynamic, he has tremendous hands. The one thing David Quinn did say he wants to see him do a little bit more is move the puck a little more quickly, just because he doesn't have as much time to hold.
Starting point is 00:06:13 hold on to it like he does in college where he can make plays. But here he's actually shown there have been instances where he can extend those plays himself. So I've been very, very encouraged by what he's done. And, you know, I'm never surprised by anything Cole Hudson does anymore because, or sorry, Lane Hudson does. Lane, Lane, Lane, Lane, Lain Hudson, thank you. Cole Hudson also good.
Starting point is 00:06:33 But Lane is just this amazing dynamic talent that we've continued to, you know, he just, he defies expectations for other. people, but I think this is basically what he's been the whole time I've been seeing since he was 15 years old. I think it's easy to confuse them. I think they kind of look a lot alike in terms, not just their stature, but the way they, their skating strides are very similar. Their skill and their hockey sense are similar.
Starting point is 00:07:00 When I've watched Cole the first time, I thought he was a carbon copy of Lane at times, to be quite honest. And I don't think it's impossible. This upcoming world juniors, you might see both of them on the same team, frankly. I think that's a distinct possibility. What's interesting with Lane here at the men's worlds, I think, is it fair to say, Chris, he's getting more responsibility on the men's world's team than he did on the World Junior team? Yeah, that's a great point, Corey.
Starting point is 00:07:25 He is. I mean, he is put in just about every situation here. You know, he's not on the PK, but he's, he is definitely getting the minutes. And I think he was close to what, like 14, 14 or so, 13, 14 minutes on the World Junior team. He's already at 16 here. at per game. And he didn't play power play regularly on the World Junior team. That's right.
Starting point is 00:07:47 They had Luke Hughes and Ryan Fouc, primarily as the two defensemen on the power play. And now he's PP1 with NHL players. So, yeah, he and Scott Perunovic were the ones that flopped. And so, yeah, it's amazing. I did want to add, too, when Chris talks about the schedule, the other team they played was Germany. And teams have had a hard time scoring on Germany in this tournament. So I do think that maybe is, you haven't played the Sweden's or the Canada's yet, but still, I think you can put a little stock into into what you've seen from USA. The other guy I really wanted to ask you guys about is Matt Coronado, who obviously a high first round pick for the flames a couple years back.
Starting point is 00:08:25 He started to kind of make an impact at this tournament. Yeah, he has. And, you know, I think that he's one of the six guys that have three points. So, you know, there's, there's Rocco Grimaldi's leading score. Lane Hudson's number two. And then there are six guys with three points, including Matt Coronado. He's played down the lineup. He hasn't had necessarily the minutes, but his responsibilities are starting to grow a little bit. And we're starting to see him get more. You know, he's averaging about, I think it's just over 13 minutes a game. He does have 15 shots on goal, which is the third most on the team behind, Goce and Alex Tuck. And what I think with Matt Coronado is he's a decisive shooter. He makes a lot of space for himself. He puts himself in good positions. And I think that's just been continued. I mean, the fact that he's averaging as many shots as he is, despite, you know, a bit of a lower ice time.
Starting point is 00:09:15 And Kuteroche actually has a fewer minutes at this point on average. But, but Coronado is getting more opportunities. I think he's been part of the second power play at times. And so, you know, that's been very encouraging to see as well. It's, again, not a huge surprise. It's kind of a continuation of how he's played. You know, and I do want to make mention of Sean Farrell, too, who's kind of been in that same situation as Coronado, as they so often are, having been former USHL and college teammates,
Starting point is 00:09:40 but you know those are the guys that they kind of play down the lineup and they've created it they've managed to give us some legitimate secondary scoring you know feral had a big goal the other day and and you know we've seen a lot of good play between those two players so to see the guys that have had that chemistry that have continued on and made made an impact for team USA I think it just proves them right that if you're not going to get the top you know if you're not to get those NHL guys. Instead of going after the second tier and guys that certainly would appreciate the opportunity, you go with those younger players that are having opportunity, at least the upside, to make an impact on your team. And we've seen the U.S. is one of the fastest
Starting point is 00:10:23 teams in this tournament based on what I've seen so far. And a lot of that is because they have these young guys like Farrell, like Carter Mays or like, you know, like different guys like Coronado and Goce that are pushing the pace against these older players. And not showing any intimidation at all. They're very confident. That's been kind of the hallmark of of the modern young players as they come in ready. And that's what we're seeing with these guys. The story for Team USA really about the drafted guys, but I think one of the big storylines of the tournament is about two guys who we expect to go very high in this coming draft. What have you seen so far from Leo Carlson out of Sweden and Adam Fantilli on Team Canada?
Starting point is 00:11:03 Yeah, you know, I think both of Leo Carlson was put in a pretty great position. by Sweden. There's a lot of faith that's been put in him. He's centering Lucas Raymond and Alex Dielander. And he does have a goal. He's, you know, there aren't many 18 year olds that have scored goals for the senior national team at this tournament, you know, guys that that didn't, Matt Sundeen, the Sedeen brothers, you know, so we've got, you know, their, Nick Baxter was another one. So Leo Carlson already has a leg up on some of those big names. But, you know, I think it's going to be really interesting to watch how, how the dynamic of the team shifts with William Leelander coming over as well, where that puts Leo Carlson.
Starting point is 00:11:40 But the thing that we've seen from him, the pace has been fine. He's been looked good. He's kept up with, you know, two guys that are high-end offensive talents. You know, I think that he's getting good minutes and good, you know, they're not shying away from putting him out there. He's not averaging as many minutes as some of the more senior players, but he's still getting good opportunities. As far as Fantilli, his usage is different.
Starting point is 00:12:03 So, you know, and we knew that would be the case. because of Canada having a lot more current NHL players. Mostly NHL players, it's, you know, Fantilli and Michael Carconi is another guy who played mostly in the HL this year outside of, you know, regular NHLers. But what we've seen from Fantilly so far, the confidence is still there. He's taking pucks to the middle. He's trying to make plays. You know, Canada did use him in a shootout the other day.
Starting point is 00:12:29 He did not score, but he did, you know, the fact they're putting him in those situations shows how much they appreciate his offensive game. He's done a good job of getting to the net. He hasn't been pushed around at all. And I think that his pace has definitely helped team Canada, especially on these hybrid ice surfaces. And Tampra, they have the hybrid ice surface. And then the Canadians are playing in Riga.
Starting point is 00:12:51 So he's using the space that's allowed to him very easily. So I think that, you know, these two guys are going to end up with disparate performances in terms of production and maybe overall impact. But if you look at Sweden's roster, it's not, there's mostly SHL, a lot of SHL guys as opposed to everyday NHLers.
Starting point is 00:13:14 And so, you know, the opportunity should exist for Leo Carlson in that situation where it won't as much for Adam Fantilli. So I don't know that we want to necessarily compare them one to one, but obviously we wanted to see Leo Carlson in this situation where he's one of the guys that they are going to look to to provide offense. And so far he's been able to do that.
Starting point is 00:13:33 I think both have played very well. And I think the most interesting thing is that he has looked good while playing in the middle. I think that is something, whether it's him versus Will Smith, even him versus Annifantilly, I think that's something that's going to come up a lot in NHL boardrooms when it comes to the decisions at the very top of the draft. I thought that's looked very natural when I've watched him. I think he looks really comfortable there. He seems to be supporting really well. and kind of in the right spot,
Starting point is 00:14:03 maybe more than I would have even expected for a guy who played on the wing most of the year. We're recording this on Wednesday, and I thought, at least in that game against Sweden, I thought David Reinbach would. Yeah, really good, right up until he got thrown outside of the rink by a hit. Yeah, I don't know if he's come down yet, actually. Yeah, no, so for those who didn't see,
Starting point is 00:14:26 he got hip-checked by Rasmusandine, and he went flying and he got injured. I think there's a hope. that he could play again in this tournament, but who knows? Yeah, he's missed two, missed two games so far. Yeah, we're just hoping it's not a serious injury. Yeah, and that's, I'm glad you brought him up too, because I thought that he didn't look at all out of place.
Starting point is 00:14:45 You know, I mean, he definitely was given a plenty of opportunity. I think that Austria has been a little, they were a little, you know, they were using him. He wasn't a top, you know, a top guy for them, but he was an important player. And, yeah, to see the, the reason that he got, hip check too is that he was actually taking a puck to the middle and get almost split the defensivement. I mean, he almost made it. But then he gets hip checked and his knee goes out. He went flying. He lands hard on, I think, the same knee that got hit by Sandine. So it was just kind of a bad thing.
Starting point is 00:15:18 But the good news is that by all reports, it doesn't sound like they're structural damage. There isn't like they took them for imaging and all this other stuff. And at least based on what they've made public, it doesn't seem like it's that serious. And there is an expectation. They hope that he'll come back. I shouldn't say an expectation. There is a hope that he'll come back, as Corey said. And if he does, I mean, I think that that's good news for Austria because this is a team
Starting point is 00:15:44 that's trying to stay out of relegation as well. And it's been a tough goal for him so far. All right, good stuff. We're going to take a quick break. We'll be right back. We're going to talk about the playoffs and what it means for the NHL draft. Okay, let's get back to it. Corey, you had a really good article come out this week that I thought was a, a,
Starting point is 00:16:02 really smart angle to take to make the playoffs about the draft. And certainly on this show, we appreciate that. So we kind of get into talking about what kind of players work in the playoffs for teams. And especially when you're talking about drafting, you hear guys you can win with. And you basically tried to make that into a kind of a statistical question where you kind of went through and rated the core players on every playoff team on a few different categories. They're skating, their puck play, which was kind of skill. hockey sense and their compete along with, I think you did study the size for these average kind of basically it's your top six forwards plus your third line center and your top four D.
Starting point is 00:16:43 And you kind of drew some conclusions based on that. And I'll kind of let you from here take off. What were kind of your big conclusions that you were able to draw? Right. I just, you know, you're always watching the NHL playoffs, but I decided this year I wanted to watch it with more of an analytical lens towards, you know, just kind of grading the tools on the important players. And even on the non, even on the players didn't play as many minutes.
Starting point is 00:17:05 One thing that I thought was really striking where you're going through the entire roster is how few players on these teams have mediocre to subpar compete levels. You know, there's really, it's hard to find guys this time of year, especially the guys who make it through to the end who don't work hard. It doesn't mean they have to have high-end compete. It doesn't mean they have to be guys like, say, Matthew Kachuk, who are just absolute, you know, war. or guys who will be extremely physical or get really chirpy with the opponents.
Starting point is 00:17:39 But you don't find a lot of guys who struggle in that area, who disappear, who don't give good efforts. And I kind of think, you know, those guys tend to lose early on. You know, for example, I think it was in game five between Florida and Toronto, William Nealander scored that, you know, that really impressive goal coming down was, I think it was the second Toronto goal, I believe, where he kind of got the puck with full speed, comes down, beats But Brothsey's short side. But on, I believe it was the second Panthers goal, he kind of stood there in the neutral zone, alone, well, three panthers flew by him and led to the three on two.
Starting point is 00:18:31 And that led to a goal, like guys who play like that, at least based on what the final four look like right now, you look at their core players. That kind of people who give that kind of effort at times don't tend to exist on those rosters. And there's certainly, you point this out in the article, you know, certainly some conclusions here can change drastically depending on who these teams are. Like if Seattle wins that game seven, there was a stat that you're like, all of a sudden, you get four of this certain kind of player. But I think those guys were also good compete guys, right? Yeah, they just would have been a smaller team. You would have seen Oliver Bjork,
Starting point is 00:19:04 Stran. Eli Tolvan and Yanni Gord and Vince Dunn, Jordan, Jordan Everleigh, just the size numbers would have changed. I mean, maybe Tolvanins compete isn't the best in the world. But the other guys, I think all compete fine. And, you know, like Tampa had some smaller guys played bigger roles like Hu Chirov and Kail Makar wasn't the biggest guy in the world either. I think there are, when you talk about those guys, though, there are certain exceptional degrees of offense and with Baccar skating as well that I think lets them be the outliers. But yeah, I don't mean to say that these four teams, Carolina, Dallas, Florida and Vegas are the template.
Starting point is 00:19:46 But it's interesting just to study their rosters and see if there are trends. And the trends to me were, you know, everybody in their core can make place. Everybody in their core competed well. And they, on average, tended to be bigger than the typical NHL player. So let's go from there then and talk about a few of the guys who maybe, I don't honestly like we don't fit it outright, but maybe it would be more toward the outlier end of things who are in this year's draft who we're going to talk about. I think if we start on the wing, it's natural to talk about some of these smaller wing
Starting point is 00:20:21 There's Gabe Perrault and Zach Benson, I think, maybe the two most interesting case studies as smaller guys without elite skating. Right. And in the recent NHL draft rankings I've done, the last two, I believe I've used Jonathan Marcia So as my comparison for Zach Benson. And it was the night that Marcia So scored that Hattrick against Evanton, I got a text from an NHL executive. He said, well, if he's Marshall, that seems pretty good. I'll take that and it's a fair point you know Marsha Soe is a really good hockey player
Starting point is 00:20:56 and I think Benson's a really good hockey player you know they are and I think there's some rhymes there with the size that they're fine skaters more elusive than fast but both are very skilled very competitive you watch Marsha So in the playoffs for Vegas and he wins a lot of battles and is able to create a lot around the net despite you know being a
Starting point is 00:21:14 smaller guy Marsha So also went undrafted and I think there were some risk variables and why that happened. So I think it will be really interesting to see where Benz and ultimately gets picked and where his career goes from there. We've talked about should he be top 10? Should he not?
Starting point is 00:21:35 Where will he really go? I'm guessing it'll be a little round 10, maybe a little bit after. It's kind of where he'll land. But like I said, there is a comp for him in the playoffs. whereas with a guy like Gabe Perrault who I frankly have rated ahead of Benson as a player just on my personal list he is ahead of Vincent on my list but yet I watch these playoffs and I don't really see somebody in the playoffs who looks like Gaypeau we can think of guys in the NHL who look like him really good players in the NHL actually who look like him
Starting point is 00:22:06 but there aren't really a whole lot of 511 below average skating wings who don't have like extremely good compete levels And I think, you know, when you talk about Benson, I watched his last playoff game this morning, actually, and you can completely see it. He's, you know, I'm not saying he's Jonathan March, so, you know, pulling the hat trick in that game, but I think did have a couple goals. I mean, he's in the fight for sure. He's in a lot of those battles. So I think you definitely see that rhyme there. And the question is, like, how much with Perrault, the bet is on, okay, can you, if you're a team that has him, are you going to have enough around him that what he does can work really well?
Starting point is 00:22:47 he doesn't have to be that guy who's necessarily winning those puck battles for you. Other guys can be kind of doing that job and let him do what he does well. Right. And that's kind of what Kucharov was with Tampa. I think Kutrov is a better skater. And I think he works harder. Not to say that Gabe doesn't have good compete, but I think Kuturov is a real competitor. Like he may not be the biggest.
Starting point is 00:23:08 Yes. Yes. No, he is. He's a prick out there sometimes. Like, you know, and, you know, and that's just, I haven't seen that. I think Gabe competes well. I just haven't seen that. in his game.
Starting point is 00:23:19 Yeah. And Corey, this is, this is interesting, you know, because you do have Gabe ahead of, of Benson, and I have Benson ahead of Perrault for the, for the, and I think the, the, the compete and the ability of the playoff the puck is probably the biggest separator for me between the two. I think that there is absolutely a case that Gabe Perot is the better offensive talent and has a higher level of hockey sense, which is why this is a tough, it's still a tough debate. But, I mean, as you've watched these playoffs and as you've seen that, and as you've seen that from
Starting point is 00:23:47 Benson, has that shifted at all for you in terms of your overall projection and has it caused you to maybe second guess that opinion of having the parole ahead of Benson? I think if Benson hits, the way he plays lends itself to more playoff success, but I do still have concerns of the athletic tools, which is the frame and the size, and that I don't think his offensive sense and skill are off the charts as pro, I do worry that there is more of a misfactor to this guy than I think a lot of people writing about him are giving him credit for. I think there is a significant chance he just doesn't hit. And just as like a in and out of the lineup player or like a third one winger, that's not what
Starting point is 00:24:36 I projected him as exactly. I project him as Jonathan Marcia so. But I think there is, there's enough risk variables in there that I see. still lean towards Perot, but it's, it makes me think about it. And I've, there are people in the league who like adore Perrault. And there are people in the league who, again, look at what succeeds in the spring and like, yeah, like, that's, that doesn't exist. And it's why Cole Perfetti went 10. It's why Marco Rossi got to 9. It's why Cole Cofiel got to 15. Like, these are all, these are rhymes there and whether you agree or disagree, Cole Cough, he'll do go to a Stanley Cup final.
Starting point is 00:25:09 Like, it's, these are just the discussions that are going to be had as we approach the draft. You could have a conversation about Phillips Adina there, a guy who didn't drop that far to six, but I think you could have an argument about, you know, how he fits into that conversation. Oliver Walshram went lower than people thought to him. Now, he had compete issues that. And the same thing was Adina. I don't think we were talking about that with these guys, but, but it's the same idea. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:25:32 I thought it was interesting when you got to the centers, you know, perhaps. perhaps unsurprisingly, you kind of make the point to get a little faster, a little bigger, and the requirements for just how much puck skill they have seems to kind of go down. The player that you honed in on here in this class to examine there is Braden Yeager. I also would be interested here, though, what you think about Oliver Moore, because if one of the takeaways here is that, you know, the skating in general doesn't tend to be as much of a, you know, the skating grades across the board aren't as high as the compete in the puck skill game and we're talking about Oliver Moore, a guy who's the best skater in the draft. It's by far his
Starting point is 00:26:07 best trait. I'd be curious how you think he fits into kind of the takeaways here. Yeah, I mean, but I think the skating is more important for centers as it is for wings. So if he is going to be, if he is going to succeed and succeed as a center in the NHL, I think it's because he's such an exceptional skater that you're hoping he has a, you know, a John Gabriel Peugeot path, a Tim Stutzler light path. Like that's, I think, that's what I think the dream is, Oliver Moore. but if he misses it's because he's a 5-11 guy who is not really all that high-end offensively
Starting point is 00:26:39 although I do think he has good skill he has he has offense in his game and there are people that like I think there's really divided opinions on him in the lead there are people who believe that he could be that first group and he could be this really impactful top six forward who can drive play down the middle
Starting point is 00:26:54 and there are some who are like are we just drafting like a middle six wing here or like a third line center or somebody who's just not going to be a court part of our team because 511 guys who don't score at high rates don't tend to play prominent roles on NHL teams. But you don't really see a lot of guys who look like him right now in the playoffs,
Starting point is 00:27:16 but you probably could have it other years. Yeah. How about for Yeager? Because I think he's kind of more what you're getting at here in terms of the undersized centerman. Like, is he even a center, basically? Yeah, and that's been a pushback. I'm having people throughout the season talking about Yeager is like, man, not even in the
Starting point is 00:27:34 playoff team. If you just look around the league in general, there are very few 5-11 centers in the league and those who are, they tend to be exceptional in certain areas. And there are people who believe he could be the next. They think he is exceptional. But I think there's a lot of people in the league who think there's a pretty good chance he has to get moved to the wing at some point because he's a good, not great skater. It's not tremendous offense.
Starting point is 00:27:59 he competes hard, but he's not like this this high, high, high end competitor on a consistent basis. So I think that's going to be an interesting part with Yeager going forward is where does he ultimately fit on an NHL lineup. And I would go up 50-50 depending on whether he's a sender or a wing, but it's fair to say that none of the top three-line centers
Starting point is 00:28:23 in the playoffs currently or in most years look like him. You know, and like the 5-11 center sometimes who do look like, who do play are the guys like Jack Hughes who are just so dynamic that they just put him there because that's where he's comfortable. Or guys like Brain and Point who have exceptional speed and compete and skill and kind of, you know, are the outlier. I just would feel hesitant saying, Yeager's going to be the next outlier. I think the defenseman section of this article is really the one that maybe the last. least surprising. I think we all know what we think of when we think of playoff defensemen. I'm going to just pull a couple lines from the article here. The average top four defensemen on the remaining teams is close to six foot three and based on some research that James Myrtle did a couple years back,
Starting point is 00:29:09 nearly an inch taller on average in the league's defenseman on the whole. You said Caroline and Vegas blends especially are a bunch of giants who either skate well, play hard, or both, as well as being able to move pucks. When we talk about guys like Axel Sandine Pelica, Mikhail Gulliyev. These are guys who I think we've talked about in the top 20 for the whole year. What does that make you think with these two? Are they the exception or does this give you, you know, pause? Yeah, I mean, I also published an article this week, looking back at the 2018 NHL draft, and it's interesting looking at all those small defensemen that went high in the draft.
Starting point is 00:29:43 Adam Bockefist, Ty Smith, Nicholas Bowden, Niels Lunkfist, you know, there's Jacob Bernard Docker, Rasmus Sandine, Ryan Merkley, like a lot of guys who, like, you just don't find those guys typically playing massive roles on teams that have gone deep into the playoffs. There are, and sometimes they do, like Adam Fox was that guy for the Rangers when they, when they've won playoff rounds. It's not an impossible thing to do, Caleb McCar again, small defensemen. It's it done.
Starting point is 00:30:16 But they tend to be, I think, exceptional. So I think if you're taking Axel Sand and Pelok high, if you're taking Mikhailiaev, by your hoping they are the next exceptional offensive defensemen. I don't think I don't think NHL coaches will play 5-10, 5-11 defensemen who are good offensively or good skaters, but not high-end in certain areas. You're going to have people who say, okay, well, then what about Lucas Dragasevic, who is much taller and does have outstanding offense? The question, I imagine, your response is going to be something to the effective.
Starting point is 00:30:53 does he skate well and does he compete? Right. I mean, I was going to say he exists in the playoffs if Edmonton had won their series because he looks a lot like Evan Bouchard with the subpar skating stride and you kind of cringe defensively a little when he's out there, but he's got great hockey sense and he makes plays and he can shoot the puck well. But they didn't make it. And some people would say that's partly because they got to play Bouchard so much.
Starting point is 00:31:16 It's not that the only reason, but you'll find people in the league who won't exactly ignore that as part of just their blue line in general, you know, even though they added at home, you know, it's not an incredible blue line. Whereas you look at the blue lines of, say, Carolina and Vegas, and those are really good blue lines. I mean, Carolina's, Brett Pesci, Jacob Slavin, Brady Shea, who I think, you know, they got a little bit on the radar, scored 18 goals this season, and Brent Burns, that's an exceptional blue line, right? there. And I think obviously they're the best of the four, but I think in general, the blue lines across the league have a lot of at least two or three really, really good defensemen in their
Starting point is 00:32:02 top four. And I found that was definitely a trend across the league as those blue lines were all big, mobile, competitive, and could move pucks. Well, let's tie that back in, I guess, to what we were just talking about the last segment with Lane Hudson, who certainly would not be a big, you know, I think he competes, but not like a crazy compete and very small defenseman there. How does he fit into this for you? Because he's a guy who fell to the third round, and I think in a redraft, he's going way, way higher. He would go higher, I think, in a redraft, but it's interesting when you talk to people around the lake about Hudson. And the sixth absolute, you know, incredible year he had with BU this year.
Starting point is 00:32:43 And now the success he's having at the men's worlds. And you ask them, like, are you a believer now? Do you believe he's going to be a tough war defenseman? Do you believe this is a guy you can win with? And I'm hearing more yeses than knows than I did this time last year. But it's not universal yeses. There are still quite a few people in the league I talked to who are still saying, you know, we'll see. You know, we'll see if this actually works.
Starting point is 00:33:10 And this is actually a guy who can play big NHL minutes. And this is a guy who can actually survive in the NHL playoffs. And, you know, I've heard some even have severe reservations. He's a guy you can win within the NHL playoffs. But he looks like a special player. His sense, his skill, the way he makes plays. It's a good skater. He could be an outlier.
Starting point is 00:33:34 I'm kind of on the fence with him. Some days I think he could be. Some days I think he won't. But I see the arguments for it. And you don't want to make generalized rules about this stuff because, again, it's only four teams we're talking about here. You look at another postseason. you know like we said with different roster competition whether it's colorado's rosters
Starting point is 00:33:54 tampa's roster other rosters and the rules could change slightly obviously conor baudard isn't the biggest guy in the world nobody is saying you're not he's not a guy you can win with you know he's a big game player he's stepped up often in big in big games and in hard situations playing a game much bigger physically advanced guys and had a lot of success and i think you know with those exceptional ones, whether it's him, whether it's Montefay-Mitchcock, you're willing to tolerate it. But I definitely don't think you're seeing those kind of guys who are not exceptional. And maybe Lane Hudson could be exceptional. I mean, some days, this season he has looked exceptional, this past week being one of those times.
Starting point is 00:34:35 I say if you're not exceptional, it's hard to move the needle, whether in the NHL, but especially in the NHL postseason. And that's what you're looking for. I mean, that's where exceptional comes from, is that there are. are these trends, but there are guys who are simply so good that they break them. So I think that was a really good article, really well thought out. And you can find that at theathletic.com. We're going to take a quick break. We're right back with the mailbag.
Starting point is 00:35:01 All right, we are back with the mailbag. It's a really good mailbag today. So really good stuff from you guys, a lot of good questions. We're going to start from Bradley R, who says Montreal is arguably in one of the toughest spots in the draft, likely the first team who needs to make a real hard decision on passing on Mitchcoff versus another prospect who's not Bidad, Fintilly, Carlson, or Will Smith, what is the best case scenario for HABs fans, Corey? I think the best case scenario is somebody else takes Mitch Koff ahead of them and it makes
Starting point is 00:35:28 decision really easy, which is always possible. Like, you still talk to people in the league who think, you know, he should be in the mix of three. He should be in the mix of four. You know, I think, you know, those organizations in Columbus and San Jose, I wouldn't bet today they're going to take him. I think they have to really think about it and be. can have conviction
Starting point is 00:35:51 in why they're taking somebody at three or four. It's a very important pick. You've got to make sure you get that right. I think he has to be there in that mix. But yeah, I don't envy Montreal's position where the four high-end guys that we all kind of agree on are gone and now
Starting point is 00:36:07 Mischkov is there and you've got to make a really hard decision for various reasons between the fact that he's a really talented player. There are some flaws in the player. there are the contract, the war, et cetera, and teams in general want to avoid those risks, if possible, very, very high in the draft. You're hoping to get a really good player who will be part of your organization for a long time
Starting point is 00:36:35 when you're picking fifth overall, and I understand those concerns. But I would personally do it, but I understand why some wouldn't. But yeah, the best case scenario is just like sharks take Mitch Cough and it makes your decision real easy. Montreal also had a tough break when Florida made the conference final because it bumped the pick they got in the Ben Chirot deal from 17 to at the earliest 29, I think could get later. So lost at least 12 spots of ground there. That is a tough break. Chris, Scott M wants to know how does Adam Fantilli compare to Jack Eichl in his draft year? Oh, that's pretty interesting.
Starting point is 00:37:10 You know, I mean, obviously in terms of production and certainly, I think, Hobie Baker, that's a pretty easy comparable. You know, I think the thing about Jack Eichel is, you know, I look back at that Boston University team that he led to the national championship game. And I think that there was, you know, it was a good team, but there was certainly less talent. They had really struggled the year before. You know, they didn't have like amazing goaltending, but they really had, you know,
Starting point is 00:37:38 a pretty solid team. But I think that that, to me, Jack Eichel had a heavier lift. in terms of carrying a team because Michigan had so much more talent around Fantilli. He had, you know, a first round draft pick in Rutgers, McGroarkey, and a guy who, you know, is an early, you know, late first, early second pick and Gavin Brinley, you know, a guy like that that could support him. But in terms of, you know, production, he actually outproduced Eichol on a points per game basis and, you know, still led Michigan to a frozen four and, and deep into the, deep into the postseason. So, you know, a lot of similarities there, you know, similar size.
Starting point is 00:38:19 You know, I think that Ikel's skating stride is much different, but he was a very good skater. You know, I think that Jack Eichol has a, has a higher level of hockey sense in general. And I thought that was true then. But I think the, the compete and the NASCAR. nastiness that that fantilly brings or you know at the same age not just as I think we've seen in the playoffs jack Ikel can compete just fine but i think in this in this year we're seeing a little bit more of that high motor physicality a little more versatility in that way um so yeah but i mean i think that they it's it the rhymes to this season and the McDavid Ikel year you know with we've got this incredible Canadian talent in the CHL we've got this incredible you know, this time it's a Canadian in the, in the NCAA, you know, the two divergent paths. But, you know, a lot of, a lot of similarities and reminders there of, hey, even even to the point where at the beginning of the season, we were talking about how these guys were maybe not that far apart, you know, we even had that discussion with McDavid and Eichael at the early,
Starting point is 00:39:25 early, early stages of that season. And, and then, you know, obviously Connor pulled away in both cases. So, but, but I think you're looking at a, you know, similar, I think Eichael, in general was the better prospect at the time, just by a hair. But I think that Fantilli is, you know, he's not far off and has a lot of the good qualities that make up for anything that he didn't do as well compared to Eichel. We're through eight years since that draft. No McDavid Stanley Cup. Ikel still has a shot at one, albeit on his second team.
Starting point is 00:39:56 Do you think it takes eight years for Badard or Fantilla to get one? Ooh, yeah, I think so. I mean, like, well, yeah, let's look at those, let's look at those two teams. I think Chicago's miles and miles away. And I think that Anaheim is probably closer, but there's still a lot of work that they're going to have to do long term. So, yeah, but I mean, I don't know that it'll necessarily be eight years, but yeah, I don't think it's going to be.
Starting point is 00:40:23 It's not going to be two. It's not going to be two. It's not going to be three. You know, I think that, yeah. Yeah, all right. Corey, Mike O says the Leafs keep trying to import leadership and toughness, but still falls short. Has that strategy ever succeeded or must those traits be developed internally?
Starting point is 00:40:40 I think you can get externally. I think you saw Florida just do that right now where they brought in Matthew Kachuk, who I think is one of the best competitors in the NHL. What I think was interesting in the discussion around Toronto's trade deadline strategy and the way they built their roster is I thought there was a lot of praise, give it in for bringing guys who I thought were frankly periphery pieces. And even the big trade, which is Ryan O'Reilly, he wasn't having an amazing season, this was not always the Ryan O'Reilly.
Starting point is 00:41:10 We saw from five, six years ago, who was Stanley Cup winning a version of O'Reilly. So I think that is, you know, when I was doing the article on what season of playoffs day and the core players, you're really looking at the core. I was doing because Toronto made a second round. So I started looking at all the second round teams in preparation for that article. And you just look at those core players. and, you know, Marner, Matthews,
Starting point is 00:41:35 Newlander, Tavares, I think Tavares competes well. I think Marley competes well. But I think you look, you know, Riley competes fine. But I think you looked at those core, core players and the other maybe top four defensemen, and you looked around that and he said,
Starting point is 00:41:50 the very best players maybe need to be, have more of those elements. If they were going to be more analogous to say what Carolina, Dallas, Florida, Vegas, going to look like. Again, that doesn't mean those are the only models, but what I notice is it's not about Sam Lafferty and Nola Chari and Luke Shen. Those core players need to have those elements. Also, Vegas and their team that kind of went out and got it from outside Mark Stahl and Petrangelo,
Starting point is 00:42:17 but the difference, another difference there is those teams are doing this, like you said, in the offseason, they're getting a full year with it. You're not trying to go out and rent it on six weeks notice. That'd probably be another big distinction. Yep, true. All right. Dylan M. Is Ryan, The Consensus Number 1D? Or was Sandine Pelica good enough at the U18s to challenge that? Chris, you got a thought here? I mean, I think among NHL, you know, I still feel like Reinebocker is, is, you know, the guy, you know, certainly I think in the public realm, it's changed a little.
Starting point is 00:42:46 You know, there's, there's more argument and debate. You know, Craig Button from TSN just put out his list and had, you know, Sandy and Pelica 5 on his list. You know, that's a little bit outside of, you know, what I think is probable, probable among. NHL teams. But, you know, I think a lot of teams were we're hoping to see a little more of Rehnbacher here at this World Championship and the injury is unfortunate, but, you know, they've watched them throughout the year and have seen what he can do. I think that the key factors is a lot of stuff that we've talked about already.
Starting point is 00:43:18 When you talk about the risk factor and Corey mentioned, you know, when we're looking at undersized defensemen, you know, is Axel Sandine Pelica dynamic enough to be a guy that could be a number one, you know, a top pairing defenseman? And it's really hard to project that at this point. But I do think that, you know, Reinebacher with his size, the right shot, he's got good mobility. You know, he defends at a decent enough level. He's got, you know, a lot of the traits that we've talked about as being important. You know, I think that there's a growing consensus that he's the top guy.
Starting point is 00:43:51 Now, the interesting fact thing is going to be, you know, who goes between Reinebacher, you know, and then is Sandy Pelica, even the next defenseman selected. It's not, not a hundred percent going that way. You know, I think. Is he for sure even the first Swedish defenseman selected? Exactly. That's exactly where I was going with it. I mean, we've been talking about Tom Villander for weeks now about his growth and his his performance at the under 18 worlds. And he's not a huge guy, but he's bigger than Axel Sandin Pelica is. And he has a little bit more, you know, his skating is outstanding. He's a really good defender. There's a lot of things there. the teams are looking for and like.
Starting point is 00:44:31 So, you know, I think to me and Corey, I mean, I think you've heard the same as, you know, I think right, you know, if we're looking at these two guys, if we're just looking at Sandian Pelican and Reinebacker, I think there's a, a significant portion of the scouting community that would go towards Reinbocker over Sandy and Pelica. Yep, I think that's right. All right. Next one is from Zach D. Corey, this one's for you. You have Nate Danielson rated sixth on your big board, where other people have him in the
Starting point is 00:44:59 mid-teens. What do you see that others aren't and should he have his name in the six to ten range discussion more? I'm just right. Everybody else is wrong. I'm kidding. That's not a good answer. When I've watched Danielson and now watching him for years, I see a guy who checks a lot of boxes. He skates very well. I think he gives a good two-way effort. He has good size and the middle. Those are things that are all obvious to people who. watch him. I think the debate comes down to the offense. I think people see a late birth date, late 04, who was over a point for game this year, but it was an exceptional number, especially when you compare him to other Western League draft eligible. Riley Hight,
Starting point is 00:45:43 Andrew Kristol, Zach Benson. Similar numbers to Brian Yeager, but still not exceptional numbers regardless. They remind Connor Bedard in that league, and they say, well, maybe he just doesn't have a lot of offenses. As an older guy, he doesn't really score a lot. But when I've watched his games this season and prior years, I see a guy with high-end skill. I see a guy who creates a ton of scoring chances. Every time I watch his games, I see, you know, he could, and I don't like it when people make teammate excuses, because I feel like that sometimes just trying to maybe force it, essentially, and I think good players tend to score no matter who's around them. But, I mean, he did not really have great line makes he was play with. And I think it's interesting to contrast it
Starting point is 00:46:28 with the other brand and teams he's played on both the previous season and even the one before that were previous season when you know got one guys like say ridley gregg are there vincentiore over there or others you know he was over a point per game even the season prior in the COVID bubble i think he had something like 15 points in 25 games so that was two seasons prior and like that so based on that what i've seen i think he checks the offense box not exceptional offense but i think it will be good at hl offense that i think this guy could be a really good top two line centermen. I'm aware that I'm higher on him than most people.
Starting point is 00:47:02 I'm higher on him than most scouts I talk to. Not all scouts. There are some who have him, top ten, that I've talked to. And we'll see whether I'm right or wrong. Philip R says he was at the U18 World at the USA Switzerland game. And right behind him, there were a lot of scouts and GMs from NHL teams. He says, I assume one of the guys they wanted to see was Trey Augustine. But in that game, one of the main differences between the team,
Starting point is 00:47:27 with shot quality and shot selection. Swiss basically threw stuff blindly on net, usually right in the middle of the net. He wants to know how do you assess the play of a goalie in a game like that, Chris? There are definitely some games where you just toss it, honestly. I mean, you know, like it's like, hey, the shots are all coming from the outside.
Starting point is 00:47:46 He was able to see everything. He made the saves. I mean, I think that you always want to look at different things with a goaltender. There's so many different things that you evaluate from skating, hockey sense, you know, the thing about Trey Augustine in particular is that no matter who the opponent, he is always dialed in. Like that guy is always dialed in.
Starting point is 00:48:04 You want to see that. Is he bored out there? Is he, is he still competing? Is he still battling? Does he have to battle? You know, those different things are still a factor. So I think in games like that, yeah, the shot quality is certainly not going to be as high. You know, we've seen plenty of instances with Trey Augustine, you know, World Juniors, other things like that where shock quality was really high.
Starting point is 00:48:24 And there were games where he had, you know, great games. and games where he didn't. So, you know, I think with goaltenders, you just really can't focus too much on a single game situation. I mean, really, you know, the great thing about all the, all the stats and the software and everything that's available is you could watch every shot against if you wanted to and just kind of go through that. And, you know, you start to pick up a lot of different things. I mean, I think that, you know, video scouting has always been a part of goaltending evaluations. and they're probably one of the easiest positions to evaluate off of video. Depends on who you ask.
Starting point is 00:49:00 I mean, also, too, you know, you can change the position of where you're sitting in the arena. More teams now have invested significantly in goalie development. We just saw the Los Angeles Kings restructure their goaltending department to have Bill Ranford as kind of the director of goaltending. And then they're going to have Matt Miller being like their goalie scout. I think that teams like Tampa and Detroit and others have people in those positions where that's their whole job. And I think it's a great investment. It's something that's important to have because it is such a difficult position to evaluate. And the guys that do it well are definitely making big time decisions for their teams.
Starting point is 00:49:43 And they're not just drafting those players. They're helping set the development path for that goalie. They're helping make all these other decisions. So, but yeah, but I mean, I think it's a good question. And the answer to it is, you know, the short answer is simply, you know, never evaluate a goalie off of a single performance. And then there are definitely games where, hey, that guy saw 15 shots. All of them were from above the dots and way out, you know, and yeah, he tracked them.
Starting point is 00:50:06 He made saves. That's great, you know, but you're not, you're not necessarily going to be looking at that game as one of the ones that you're going to file away. You'll write your report, but you won't file it away as a significant moment. in the scouting evaluation. The good news for those scouts is they had plenty of other stuff to watch for TBS. Old friend of the podcast, Avco Cup, one of our most frequent question askers, Corey, wants to know which overager's passed over in previous drafts are most likely to hear their name called this time around. We get this question a lot, and often we just don't even answer it because I don't,
Starting point is 00:50:41 not ready to answer that question yet. I think those guys are more into the weeds, but I'm two weeks away here from our first iteration of the long list that I'll come out. So I have a little bit better feel on this stuff. So a couple of names to keep an eye on. Milton Osterson, center with Alribo, played with Yale Carlson, was played for Sweet at the World Junior, who was on their power plate,
Starting point is 00:51:03 6'6 center with a little bit of offense, although really heavy feet. The other sweet, Honest Holberg, he was one of the leading scores in the J20 this season as a second year eligible. Got to keep an eye on. Personal favorite of mine, plays with the Peterborough Pete, Samuel Maye, big mobile defensemen playing big minutes for them right now.
Starting point is 00:51:23 I think him and the other defenseman on that team, Connor Smith, could be drafted. He is a first-year eligible, though, Smith. Gabriel Stutz, I don't know if I'm pronouncing his name right, but the little guy who plays in Colonna, had a great rule juniors there for Chequia. I think he's a guy who can get drafted. A guy in the AJ, who had a big World Junior A and a great year in Brooks, Hudson Malinowski. who's going to Providence is a guy I've heard some buzz on. Not sure if he will for sure get drafted, but there's an option
Starting point is 00:51:54 out there. Another suite that I have some time for is Rastonis Larson, 6-3 mobile defenseman, second year eligible. Not sure on the offense there, but that's a guy that gets buzzed. In the USA, I think Max Lundgren, the goaltender in Des Moines, who's 6'5, could get drafted. Michael Emerson in Chicago, I feel pretty confident will get drafted. Yontsdown, Chris, you think Andon Sorbonne could get drafted? There's a good champ. I mean, he's had a really, really strong season and a really good postseason.
Starting point is 00:52:28 Yeah, I think so for sure, yeah. I've heard Igor Sitterov and Saskatoon will likely get drafted. He was one of the leading scores and goal scores in the Western Hockey League. There's a couple more that I'm skimming over there, but that's a good place to start for people. The one thing that I would say, too, about these second year eligible or third year eligible guys that are going to be looked at, and a lot of teams are looking at them more frequently. I think that a lot of teams are looking and even strategizing about, you know, who are the guys that we could see, you know, are trending towards those free agency contracts. What have they done? And like Corey mentioned one of my personal favorites as a reentry.
Starting point is 00:53:07 Stewart's, you know, I think that he had a great season. And there was a lot. Like, I mean, Central Scouting almost did. like he was like almost towards the very bottom of their of their most their their final rankings. Um, but I think that that's a guy that's going to go. Um, you know, I think there's a lot there. But, but a lot of these guys in the USHL that are on the college path to guys like Emerson, um, you know, there, there could be other guys that go really, really late guys. Um, they like Eric.
Starting point is 00:53:33 I think, I think Pallatich could get drafted from far ago. Yeah. Joe Pallatichuk for sure as, is, is one of them. Um, there's, uh, maybe a little less likely, but certainly a possibility. Eric Polkamp from Cedar Rapids. Aaron Pionk had a very good season with Waterloo this year. Also drove the Zamboni a little bit for Young Arena because he had some extra time. I think Ryan Walsh could get drafted. Yep, Cedar Rapids. Yep.
Starting point is 00:53:59 So there's, yeah. And Zach Wisdom is another one too. He's a guy that has size, compete. His brother Zaid is in the Philadelphia Flyer system. He's going to Colorado College next year. Colorado College actually is going to be an interesting place to watch, not just for guys that are getting drafted, but future free agents.
Starting point is 00:54:20 Like if a guy like Zach Wisdom doesn't get drafted, I think he's going to be on the free agent radar for a while because he's got some, he's got a little bit of size to him. He's got a great compete level, got some speed, you know, those different things. But I think guys that are going on that college path where you know you have a long development timeline with them,
Starting point is 00:54:37 they're a little bit more likely, some of the Europeans as well. it's a little harder to make those decisions on the CHL players because you have to move them in. Corey, what do you think? We just saw recently that he's going to reenter the draft. Ben Goddrow, do you think that anybody will take a chance on him in the second go-round here, former Sharks draft pick? Maybe.
Starting point is 00:54:58 Yeah, I think that's the thing is I'm not 100% positive. And this is a guy that won a gold medal with the under 18 worlds with Canada. And what was second round draft pick? Third round. Third round. Third round. Yeah. But I mean, like that's...
Starting point is 00:55:13 I would struggle to do it. Yeah, I'm with you on that. But it's just, that was an interesting name because you'll also see those guys that are re-entries, guys that did get drafted. It's pretty uncommon for those guys to get selected again, unless they, you know, are going in because they didn't want to sign or something like that. All right. Next one is for Chris.
Starting point is 00:55:34 It's from Dane. Outside of the Big Five, which I think we're talking about Bedard, Fantilli, Mitchkov, Carlson, and Smith. What other players do you think are safely in the top 10, Chris? Safely in the top 10. Oh, man. You know, I think I think Ryan Leonard is safely in the top 10. You know, I think that there's, that's the thing is the interesting part about this, this, you know, this going down. You know, I think Ryan Bacher is, is now in that conversation more, more significantly. But then you start getting to guys like Dvorski and guys like Danielson like Corey has. And as he mentioned, he's higher on him than some others are Benson. You know, there are all these different questions per row more.
Starting point is 00:56:16 I mean, there are guys now that we're getting a lot. It's becoming a lot difficult. So a lot more difficult. So I, for me, you know, I think Leonard is is very likely to go in there. I think that Ryan Bacher is very likely to go within the top 10. But beyond that, in terms of safe, you know, I think the next guy I might put on that list is maybe Dvorski. But, you know, I was going to say that. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:56:39 Yeah. You know, like I'd say like that's, but yeah. And then at that point, we're getting to eight. So it's not like it's a, it's a huge, you know, leap at that point, you know, it's a safe. But I think that there is a lot of differing opinions and a lot, as there should be. And as there are always, almost always is in every draft. There's not, you know, the consensus continues to wane. And it just becomes where teams fall.
Starting point is 00:57:02 And yeah, but I would say that, you know, I think those are the guys I'm more consistently hearing are very high. terms of, you know, their overall projections. Corey, Blake Murray wants to know. Let's make this a group discussion, actually. From the final four playoff teams, which players in the upcoming draft, would you compare with some of the guys lighten it up right now? He's thinking Rope Hintz. He's thinking Matthew Kuch.
Starting point is 00:57:27 Obviously, we already talked about Jonathan Marcoso and his comp. Anybody's jumped to mind. Current playoff stars who you'd comp to guys in this draft. Yeah, it's hard to think of a Matthew Kachan. comp from this draft, but maybe not in the comp way, like where you think, okay, this is a below average skating wing with exceptional skill and hockey sense. But I think if you're drafting Adam Fantilli, you're hoping he has that kind of an impact for you, where he is providing a ton of offense and it's just an absolute terror to play against physically for the opposition.
Starting point is 00:58:05 I think that's kind of what you're hoping with, with Fantilli. And, you know, I think, you know, pie in the sky, you're kind of hoping that that guy like Danielson could develop into somebody like Rupert Hintz with the skating and the skill and the size down the middle. Anybody for Leo Carlson, he's one of the tougher ones for me. I know you've liked ranting in for him in the past, Corey. Yeah, I guess, like maybe they're thinking of stone, I guess, kind of thing, like that kind of impact.
Starting point is 00:58:31 But we've talked about stone for Carlson before. I don't like that. I don't like drawing that line there quite either. I don't think it fits as much. Stone's a rare level of defensive player, I think. I think you can't throw that one around too lightly. I agree. Yeah, absolutely.
Starting point is 00:58:47 All right. Dan Schrader says, where do you think you need to get better in terms of prospect evaluation? Corey, I think this one's your turn. I think for me, just because of the way I do my job where, you know, we are not an NHL team, we do not have, you know, tens and or hundreds of thousands of dollars to, to spend on travel and to be in rinks every weekend. A large part of my job is done by video. I go to as many games as I possibly can.
Starting point is 00:59:12 I spend plenty of time on the road, but a large part of my job is done either by talking to people in the league and by watching a lot of guys on video. And I found with video that I can get a pretty good read on the player's skill. People in the league will often qualm with me that you can't evaluate skating very well on video. I disagree with that. I have found I can comfortably evaluate skating on video. As me, you always agree with everybody on skating.
Starting point is 00:59:42 You know, everybody agrees with my assessments on skating, but I feel comfortable with my skating evaluations on video. For me, I think is identifying compete via video. I have found to be a challenge in my evaluations. It's not that I don't think I can't, and I think I still can identify things, but I have found that the in-person evaluations of compete provide much more information to me than any other aspect of the game when I see guys live. So I need to find ways just because of how I do my job to get better at identifying those things from afar.
Starting point is 01:00:24 Chris, let's go to you with that one. What do you think Corey needs to do better in terms of how good evaluation? Well, I mean, now I know why we disagree so much on skating. No, I'm just kidding. I mean, I think, I think for for all of us, it just comes down to one of the things I think Corey and I have both learned in the last, I don't know, probably as we've gotten later in our careers is just, you know, the risks that we're willing to take as writers are not necessarily risks that can happen in real life. We are not going to get, you know, we're not going to lose our jobs. We're not making multi-million dollar decisions. And so self-awareness, I think, is probably one of the most important traits in terms of, of, you know, understanding your limitations and in making sure, like, you're working hard enough. You're seeing enough stuff. Like, you know, in my current job, I have to compartmentalize a lot more because I haven't, I have a lot of other responsibilities. So now I have to do the job a lot more, a lot more on video and maybe not traveling as much and doing certain things that because there, you know, there's just a number of other things I have to do. So, so,
Starting point is 01:01:28 So understanding, you know, where can I, where can I find ways to work smarter and not necessarily harder? You know, but I mean, we all, we all still have to work really hard to make this work. It's a, it's a large world out there. I think the other thing that I've is, is that I don't have to have an opinion on every single player. I try to know as many as I possibly can. But sometimes you just have to pump the brakes and say, you know what? I don't know. And that's that's also helpful is knowing your limitations that way.
Starting point is 01:01:59 But in terms of my own personal evaluation process, you know, I think the one thing that I've probably learned from Corey a bit more is trying to, you know, take as much subjectivity and, you know, recognizing biases as much as you possibly can't. Like you try to make it a little bit more cut and dry and a little bit more black and white as opposed to gray, which is really hard to do because there is so much subjectivity still. But finding more ways to take that out. And I think a lot of that comes from, you know, understanding precedents, understanding, you know, your own past mistakes and things like that. That really helps in that regard.
Starting point is 01:02:41 But, yeah, but I mean, yeah, none of us are perfect. And there's always, there's always going to be things to learn. I think that precedent piece is a big one. I'll wrap this quick here. But just, you know, as I've gotten to do a little more of this over the last few years, just looking for those. Well, what have guys like this look like in the NHL that has been a real eye-opener for me as to how to do this? Last one, most important one, John D. When buying a two-scoop ice cream cone, what flavors do you choose? He says, bonus points if you pick chocolate chip in Blue Moon.
Starting point is 01:03:14 Chris, anybody, Corey, do you have a gut reaction here? Two-scoop cone, what do you choose? I can go first. I'm going chocolate on the bottom. And I'm going raspberry sorbet is the top scoop. Chocolate raspberry, great pairing. Man, I didn't think I was going to have to think this hard today. I mean, why not just chocolate and vanilla?
Starting point is 01:03:38 I mean, the two most basic things on planet Earth. I prefer it in a soft serve format, the chocolate vanilla twist. Oh, unreal, unbeatable. But in a scoop format, it's really tough. But I'm just going to keep it simple. Keep it simple. Don't overthink it. Let's put some cookies in there.
Starting point is 01:03:55 It's like a cooking and cream vibe or like a cookie dough vibe. I think that's got to be in there somewhere. I like that. I like that. A little texture. All right. We're going to go get some ice cream, but that's going to do it for us for today. Thank you so much for listening to this episode of the athletic hockey show prospect series.
Starting point is 01:04:09 You can follow us on YouTube at YouTube.com slash at the athletic hockey show. You can also crutch more of Chris over at Flow Hockey at his podcast, Talking Hockey Sense. Remember to subscribe to New York Times audio, the iOS app. And right now get a one-year subscription to The Athletic for $2. a month when you visit theathletic.com slash hockey show. Talk to you soon.

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