The Athletic Hockey Show - Is Igor Shesterkin good enough to mask brutal Rangers defense?

Episode Date: December 9, 2024

Igor Shesterkin has signed the biggest goalie contract in NHL history, but his New York Rangers are in a tailspin and maybe even he can’t save their season. Plus, Laz and Jesse discuss whether tear-down tanks and rebuilds through the draft actually work, the Pens and Bruins rising from the dead, Scott Wedgewood’s awesome start in Denver with the Avs, which country is favored to win the 4 Nations Face-Off, and more.Hosts: Mark Lazerus and Jesse GrangerExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. Hello and welcome to the athletic hockey show. I am Mark Lazarus. Max Boltman is on assignment, so that means we get the, the goaltending guru, the, what are you? You're the vicar of Vegas, the man with the 407-yard drive. Jesse Granger, we get Jesse for the old show. Jesse, how are you? I'm doing good.

That was quite the intro. I don't know if I can live up to that. Hopefully the show goes as well as that 47-yard drive did. Well, I got the thing. Normally we call your segments Granger Things, and I've always wanted to ask you this. Have you ever actually watched Stranger Things? I tried very hard. I watched, I don't know, I want to say maybe five or six episodes of the first season.

And this is back when the first season, like, it was pretty new at the time. I think it was the only season that was out. And it just, I just couldn't get into it. I don't know. People have told me that I should have kept trying to go. And like it gets better as it goes on. and it's just a really slow starting show, but the first few episodes were not,

not for me. That first season was, that first season was great. Don't tell this to my 12 year old daughter. She will be very mad at you. Well, maybe we need to change the name of the segment then. You know,

I was thinking, I came up with one. I was like, all right, what could we call it? Especially when you're podcasting, talker, Jesse Granger.

In honor of Chuck Norris, no, no, no, a Texas Ranger. I see, okay, it took me a second,

but I got it. Granger, Will Robinson. That's kind of an old reference. I don't think that's going to work. I don't know what. Jesse's goals? I wish that I had Jesse's goals.

I don't know. I got nothing here. We're going to talk about a bunch of things today. We're going to talk about the New York Rangers who are kind of a hot mess right now. We're going to talk about the merits of the tear down rebuild, which doesn't seem to work in the NHL, but everybody keeps doing it. We're going to talk about the four nations. We got some odds for the four nations. Looking forward to seeing who's going to win that.

We might talk about Scott Wedgwood, Savior, after Jesse Granger, besmirched his name last time we spoke about him. But I want to start with the Rangers. Let's start with the good news with the Rangers. They re-sign Igor Shesdurkin. Eight years, $80 quadrillion. I think it's $11.5 million a year. That's less than I thought he was going to get.

Is that less than you thought he was going to get? It is less than I thought he was going to get. But that just continues a trend of what we've seen with goalies. And I do think that the goalie market is coming around a little bit. But you look at that and you're like, wow, that's not what I thought. compare it to the other goalies. Oh, wait. Connor Hellebuck's making $8.5 million and you're like, oh, he must have signed that deal like five years ago. No, it was last summer he signed that deal.

So UC Soros just signed a new extension, one of the best goalies in the league. He makes $7.7 million a year. Like these goalies are not getting the same types of figures that the skaters are getting. So yes, I agree. I think we were all saying this could go up to $13 million, maybe even $14 million. It obviously didn't get anywhere near that. He's still the highest paid goalie to ever live. so still got that going for him.

But yeah, it is a little low. Do you think that this is just, we kind of felt like the goalie market was coming back with Swamen getting his deal and Ottinger gets his. It's still not there, right? Yeah, I mean, if Jeremy Swamen is worth 8.25, then Igor Chesterkin is worth 11.5. I mean, he's that much better and he's that much more proven. On the open market, I think he could have gotten $12, $13 million,

a goalie of his caliber that just does not hit the open. market very much. And it's so strange with, you know, of all times to resign with the Rangers should choose right now to commit to this team for eight years. The way this team plays defense, why would anyone subject themselves to that when you could have had the whole world to defeat? Hey, I'm in New York right now. The Blackhawks are here playing the Rangers tomorrow. It's the greatest city in the world. I get it. But man, he might not, he might have some regrets and buyer's remorse here in a couple of years. Yeah, it's, it is an interesting timing on the deal for sure. And like they, and they, they trade Trouber right before it. It was the same day.

I don't know if that had like anything to do with the cap certainty of getting, making sure you have the room next year for Shusurkin or, or the inner workings of that. But yeah, it's interesting. I think we, we see, like, at least my, the reaction I saw on Twitter was, can't pay a goalie that much. If you pay a goalie that much, you don't have enough room to build around them. And I just don't understand that argument. I thought that was the number one reaction I saw. The most common reaction was too much for a goalie. And I don't see how you can come to that conclusion when we just watch the Florida Panthers go to back-to-back Stanley Cups with a goalie who makes $10 million. And Igor Shostarkins better than Sarkigke Bavrovsky is.

And even if you don't agree with that, the premise is that you can't build a team around that. Well, the Florida Panthers have a really good team with very few holes in it. This isn't some fluky team that, like the blues team that won the cup. You could argue, well, they just got hot at the right time. The Panthers are not a fluky team that got hot at the right time. This is a dominant team that they've built around a salary of a goalie that's $10 million. So, and the cap's going up to say that 11.5 million a year is too much to pay a goalie is crazy to me. That's crazy, Doc. Yeah, no, I'm with you. I mean, I, you're George Test Erkin's been on a couple of my heart ballots. I'm a big, you know, goalies are underappreciate.

I think even more so than a quarterback, I think the goalie is the single most influential position on a game in any of the major North American team sports. I guess the argument is she only plays, what, 55, 60 games a year? But I think that we need to look at goalie salaries as a tandem, right? Because would you rather have two $6 million guys or would you rather have Igor Shes-Durkin and someone like Jonathan Quick on the cheap? I'd rather have Igor Shes-Durkin and someone like Jonathan Quick on the cheap because once you get to the playoffs, I'm going to have the world's best goalie, right?

And that's what matters the most. I don't understand people who think that he gets overpaid here. The cap is going. You have to think of it as a percentage of the cap. And as a percentage of the cap, 11.5 million for a goalie of his caliber who plays 60 minutes a night when he plays, I don't understand how you'd rather give that to a third line forward. Yeah, totally agree.

And you're right. They only play 60 games, sometimes less, depending on the tannoms now. But like you said, they're playing 100% of the minutes. Every game that they do play, they're out there for the entire game.

And when the games matter, when they get to the playoffs, If you've got a stud goalie, they're in there for the rest of the playoffs. So, yeah, I think it's a good deal for Igor getting the eight years. It's a long time. He's still young enough, but I think it's a good deal for the Rangers. I'm sure, I'm positive at some point in this deal. The Rangers will play terrible defense like they are right now.

And his numbers, he'll have like an 890 save percentage. And everyone will say, what a disaster. They're paying them all this money. And we still can't figure out that these safe percentages are more a team stat than a goalie stat. but that will happen. There will be a point in this contract where everyone says it's a bad deal, but I don't think it will be.

What a weekend, though, for Igor Chesdirk, and he missed the game today because his wife's in labor, I think is what I read. So we actually haven't heard from him yet to hear his reasoning. We kind of thought this was going to drag on. And for it to happen right as Jacob Truba is traded, it's almost like the Rangers were begging him.

Please sign now so someone will say something good about us. It's such a strange timing of this signing. And here's the question. You're the goal. attending guy. Is Igor Shestirkin good enough, consistently enough, to mask this brutal, brutal Rangers defense? They are only the ducks. Jacob Trubas ducks are giving up more expected goals per 60. Only the ducks and the penguins are giving up more high danger chances per 60. It's just an endless onslaught of two-on-ones and breakaways and three-on-twos, all these high

danger chances. Can Igor Shestirken by himself mask that? It depends. It depends. It depends. It on how much he has to mask it is like so so the rangers identity is a team that scores a bunch of goals and has a great goalie. And they're, the problem with the defense is not just the defense. I think it's the forwards too. The Rangers have a bunch of very skilled forwards. You look at like Zabanajad, Panarin, Kreider, these are not defensive savants. They are guys that score goals and they're not going to be the most responsible defensively.

They're not going to help out the blue line. You look at the blue line outside of Adam Fox. It's there's not a lot of guys. that are above replacement level NHLers, I don't think the defense is getting better unless they add some serious defensemen or maybe like a defensive specialist forward. But the Rangers identity isn't a good defensive team.

They're a team that will trade chances with you. We'll give up however many high dangerous chances. We'll give up as many high danger chances as the Anaheim Ducks do. But we're going to score five goals and you can't score five on Igor, no matter how many high danger chances we give you. The problem to me lately for the Rangers is they're only scoring 2.8 goals a game.

over the last 10, 20th in the league. I think if they are scoring the way they can, if they are one of the best offensive teams in the NHL, Igor can cover up the defensive lapses because he doesn't have to hold them to one. He only has to hold them under three. If every night Igor knows, yeah, I'm going to face a bunch of chances,

but as long as I stop more than their goal he does, we're going to win the game, I think he's totally fine. And I think that that can be a winning formula for this team. The problem is, if you're not going to play good defense, you've got to score goals. And 2.8 over the last 10 games is just not. enough. And it's not your goal. No goalie's going to mask a defense that bad when you

aren't scoring for them. So the range, they just keep losing, you know, we're recording this on Sunday night and they give up seven goals. I think one of them was an empty netter to be fair to the Seattle Cracken, not exactly a juggernaut. The league's worst team who can't score at all. The Chicago Blackoffs are coming in tomorrow. Can they pull out of this tailspin? I mean, is this who they are? This isn't like a small sample size now. It's been this way for like a month after that incredibly good start they had. This was the President's Trophy winner last year. This is supposed to be arguably the cup favorite out of the Eastern Conference.

Can you see them pulling out of this? I mean, I think they can. I do think they need to add defense. And obviously the true betrayed was to clear cap space. That's the only reason they made it. And I think that with that cap space, they've got to add some defensemen. And not offensive guys that are going to jump into the play and jump.

No, I want like get a lockdown. defenseman that you can play tough minutes, start all of his shifts in the defensive zone, give him the worst of the worst things to deal with in terms of matchups and minutes and zone starts and have him locked down and be Igor's best friend. That's who they need to add. I don't know who that is,

but as currently constructed, I don't think they're going to be able to dig themselves out of it to become what you said, a cup favorite. Are they going to make the playoffs? Probably. It's easy to make the playoffs to the NHL. You have to be really bad. to miss the playoffs in the NHL. The way the league is set up,

you have to be really, really bad with the loser points and half the teams making it, you have got to be a disaster to miss the playoffs in the NHL. So I do think they'll make the playoffs. And the odds say that right now they're still 8 to 1 to win the Metro Division.

They're 11 to 1 to win the Cup. So what that tells me is the odds to win the division, their fourth best odds to win the division, their fifth best odds to win the Stanley Cup. So those two things do not. match up. What that tells me is they're probably not going to win the division

because they aren't going to be able to put a good enough record together to win the division. But I think that in a short span of things like the playoffs, you get a hot goalie like Igor Shostirken and you still can absolutely win the cup. So I think they're in trouble in terms of being one of the best teams in the NHL. I don't

think they're in trouble in terms of making the playoffs. What do you think? Well, first of all, the sound you heard is the entire city of Buffalo weeping into its beer after you said that you got to be a complete disaster not to make the playoffs that's having me the playoffs in 13 years. But in a disaster for 13 years. You're talking about that.

I mean, yes, they've got cap space to burn now. And they've got, you said they need to get a shutdown defense. I'm looking at Chris Johnson's trade board here. Ivan Proverov is the number one guy in this trade board. I don't really see him as the answer to that question. Cam Fowler is not what he used to be. There isn't, you know, there's not a Chris Tanniv on the board this year. I don't feel like.

There's not an easy fix. to this. It's going to have to happen from within. Okay, but I'll say this. I don't think it needs to be a superstar defenseman. I'll give a great example, and you've gotten to work with him this year. Alec Martinez, now on the Blackhawks, the Golden Knights traded for him at the deadline three years ago, four years ago, it's been a while. And his numbers were abysmal with the Kings. But he is a defensive defenseman that will lock down. He blocks a ton of shots. He's a veteran guy. I think the Rangers should be looking for someone like that. Someone who has been a

lockdown defenseman, they're holding. career. They're on some team that's going nowhere. When the Golden Knights traded for Alec Martinez, it seemed like a nothing trade. This, like this, this guy will probably be the seventh defenseman. Who knows? He ended up being one of the most important parts of their blue line for a cup run. I think there are guys out there that aren't super star, because I agree. There are, you're not going to get a lockdown top like elite level, workhorse, 20 minute a night defenseman. But I think that they should be going for the right type of player. And maybe, maybe at a lower level. But I think you can find guys out there that can help defense.

I mean, Alex, Alex Martinez was a healthy scratch at the end of his Vegas career, and he's been a little up and I like I like the idea of it. He's kind of like Cam Fowler. If it's the vision you have of Alec Martinez in your head, yes, I'm not sure that vision matches the reality of what he is now. We have to start. This goes on for much longer. I mean, Peter Laviolet has done an incredible job his first couple of years at the Rangers. That might be the solution at some point. If this keeps going on at the team defense is this bad and they're losing, that's what gets coaches fired. And maybe another coach comes. in and fixes the team defense somehow. I mean, Barry Trots is not walking through that door. But, I mean, this is New York. This is James Dolan. I know he's not quite his hands on with the Rangers as he is with the Knicks. But they're not going to stand idly by and let a president's trophy winning team just fall into the abyss.

Yeah. I mean, you see coaches come in and change defensive numbers pretty quickly regularly. Like we saw it with Edmonton last year. We're going to talk about Boston. Boston, since their head coach and changed, the Bruins, one of the best defensive teams in the NHL and they were not that before the change. So I guess, yeah, you're right. That is a way to change team defense schematically rather than personnel-wise. So here's something I wanted to touch on. The Rangers, you know, in my mind in some ways to their credit, are just being

absolutely ruthless trying to fix this roster and get bad money up the books. They did it with Barkley Goodrow, putting them on waivers, and they basically strong-armed Jacob Trubin into accepting this trade. That's, you know, as a fan, that's what you want to see, right? You you see your team doing what's best for the franchise, what's best for the team. But does this give them a reputation that's going to hurt them in free agency down the road, that they are a player unfriendly organization, that they don't live up to their end of a contract, that, you know, they're a place where you can go and they can promise you this, that, you can't believe a word they say.

Do you think that that's something that hockey players are noticing or is the allure of New York and the money that Jake Stolen has, it's, it is great to be a New York Ranger. They are first class franchise. You're living a good life, no matter what the taxes are in New York. You are living a good life as a New York Ranger. You are treated like a king. But at some point, do players start casting a wary eye to this team? Do you think that pending free agents are going to look at this team and think twice about signing here?

So it's interesting because listening to you lay that all out, it's exactly what I've been hearing about the Vegas Golden Knights, basically since they started. They've run things in an incredibly similar way. And it hasn't stopped anyone from wanting to sign at this team. I think that there are multiple factors. I think the weather in Vegas is better than New York, but both are great cities to live in. I think the tax situation is different, but I think winning matters.

I think if the Golden Knights were doing this or the Rangers, whoever, and they're just turning over these players like nothing, they're getting rid of fan favorites. If you lose, if you start to lose and you have some losing seasons, I do think that free agents will look at that and say, I think I'd rather go elsewhere. But as long as you're winning, the Golden Knights are having no problems getting guys to sign here.

Despite, I mean, like Jonathan Marsha won them a Stanley Cup. He's the Kahn Smythe winner. Had no interest in resigning him. Deuces, we will replace you with someone else. Noah Hannafin gets traded, immediately wants to sign the longest extension he possibly can as soon as he gets here. And that's winning.

That's attractive market to live in. that's, you know this team is going to try to do what it can to win for the length of your contract. Now, will you be part of that? Maybe not. But you know that they're not just going to sit around and let you all. Like, this isn't going to be a rebuild. And I, and I, so I would say this, I don't think as long as the Rangers are winning and are one of the better teams in the league, I don't think they're going to have any problem attracting free agents. But winning can go away pretty quickly. And then it would be an issue. Like, you've seen the backside. Like Chicago, for example, Chicago was incredibly attractive to play for when they were in those cup years. Do you think that the losing in Chicago has suddenly made them not as attractive? It actually hasn't, to my surprise.

I asked that a lot. It's a question I've asked a lot of people on other teams, former Blackhawks, and guys that do sign here. And Chicago, which has done jack squats since 2017, is still a destination because players love the city of Chicago. they love the way they're treated by the team. Again, there are franchises where you stay at the Ritz Carlton or the four seasons everywhere you go, and there's places where you stay at the Marriott like I do.

And the players notice those things. It's not just about, I mean, winning is a very important part of it. But, you know, the lifestyle of a professional athlete is so all-consuming. It's all the time that all those little things add up. Like, you know, can you go out and, you know, get a stake every night or whatever it is you want to do? You know, what does the training table look like? What is the nutrition that you get?

What are the little perks you get as a player on this team? It's different being a Chicago Black Hawk than it was being in Arizona Coyote. There's just no two ways around that. And so Chicago remains a destination city. I don't know how long that'll last. Things are a little bad right now. Sort of a whole column about how bleak everything is here. But for now, and I think that's where the Rangers are at.

You're right. Like the Rangers are still a destination. It's freaking New York Rangers, man. Like you're going to be good. You're going to be okay. but I do think that they're going to develop some kind of reputation that maybe down the road comes back to haunt them once or twice with a free agent. But you mentioned that they're not going to rebuild.

I want to put a pin in that. When we come back from this break right now, I want to dive a little bit more into whether they should or should. Okay, we're back. Now, Jesse, we were talking about the Rangers, and you said one of the reasons that they'll stay attractive to free agents is that they're always going to be going for it. They're not going to be tearing things down.

And it's funny because it was the Rangers who famously, sent out the letter to their fans that they were, hey, we're going to take a step back, and we're going to try to rebuild this the long way. And then like two years later, our Tommy Panarin falls in their lap. And they're like, never mind, we're going to go for it again. And, you know, to me, I'm starting to wonder if that's the right way to do it. It's just to suspend your way out of failure because, man, I'm sitting here in Chicago. And yes, they have Connor Bedard.

And Connor Bedard is a marketing windfall for the Blackhawks. And he's despite all the histriotics around him, he's going to be a, a great player. I see it every day. The kid's going to be fine. But the Blackhawks, they've got so much talent in their system. So many first round picks. More first round picks on the way. Another two, at least this year. They're going to try to get more out of it with me. Maybe they move a Taylor Hall or something. But they are still like four, five, six years away from all of this coming to fruition. And they haven't made the playoffs since 2018. You look at Buffalo. Buffalo had 10 straight years of top 10 picks, including four top two picks.

I haven't made the playoffs since 2011. Detroit had seven straight years of top 10 picks. And the Eiser plan just goes on and on and on and on. They haven't made the playoffs since 2016. And they're both out of the playoff picture this year. They're not in the, we keep saying that the Rangers will be fine. Arthur Stapel, our excellent New York hockey columnist was like, they'll be fine. They're in the East.

Of course I'm going to make the playoffs. The East is garbage. And he's not wrong. but Buffalo and Detroit Phil can't get in and Ottawa couldn't get in and it took the Oilers how many first round

number one picks to get it before they got McDavid and they still are working their way up. The Rangers right? Should we just be spending our way out of this and just like

instead of doing this endless long game and just testing your fans patience? Because I haven't seen it work out since what? The 2010 Blackhawks? The 20, what was it,

27 was a win when the Penguins won? Is that the last time this worked? It certainly. feels that way. And it's, it's like, I'm not even sure I know what the problem is. I would say that I think it's tough for these, like, you collect a bunch of young talented players and they have to lose a lot while they're waiting for the other, the other talented players to be collected and then eventually for them all to get good together. And maybe losing is a habit, like not in a way that like, that sounds weird,

but it just, I feel like that's the biggest issue is these players in Detroit, these players in Buffalo. These players in Ottawa that are so talented, they just don't learn how to win because they don't have veteran players around them that can help them win and they just get so used to losing. You don't develop the winning habits of hockey. Like, I see the Golden Knights do it here. They haven't had losing seasons.

They bring in players that have reputations as losing players. Jack Eichol is a great example. You immediately, like they get around players like Alex Petrangelo that have won their whole careers. And it's like, oh my God, it's a different player. And they know how to play winning hockey. and if you're rebuilding and you're building it all through the draft, they just don't have those pillars around them

to help them develop those types of that type of hockey, that type of game. Winning hockey isn't necessarily scoring as many points as you can. That's one thing Bruce Cassidy said when Eichol came here is like, we have to have conversations and we have to realize that like, what's the best for you and your points isn't always the best for the team? And playing winning hockey is different. And I just think that maybe when you try to rebuild through the draft,

it's hard to instill those types of things into these super talented young players that you're getting. Do you have a hypothesis for what this could be? I think that's a fantastic point. Patrick Kane's last couple of years here in Chicago, he talked about fighting off a losing mentality almost every day. He was always like, like we got to make sure that these players don't come in and learn to lose, that they don't have losing habits because it does become a habit.

It becomes really hard to break. And that's exactly what we've seen. And I think you look at a team like the Dallas Star, Why do all of the Dallas Stars young players immediately succeed? Why does Wyatt Johnson and Logan Stankovin and Maverick Fork? These guys were not top two picks. Why do they step in and immediately play like top five picks? It's because they're walking into a winning team with a winning culture.

They have good line mates who bring out the best in them. They have savvy veterans who know how to win, and it makes them succeed. And these tank jobs, they might get you the best, most talented players, but it's not a way to build. It's not a way to build success because you have to have like this the alchemy of developing a winner. Like what the Blackhawks had when they got Tain and Taves

and they added it to Keith and Seabrook who already been around for a few years and Patrick Sharp came in. And then you brought in Marion Hose of the greatest free agent signing in Chicago sports history. Like it took a lot of factors to get it to that point, right?

And it happened fast. But it doesn't usually happen that fast. Not everybody's Sidney Crosby. And Sidney Crosby came in. And, you know, Malka was there and Flory was there. Like, you got to hit time and time again. You look at some of these like the Blackhawks prospects. And some of them are, they might be very good NHL players.

Are they top line NHL players? I don't know. They were a number 17 pick here, a number 18 pick here, a number seven pick here. Is Kevin Kortinski going to be the next Kail McCar? I don't know. Is Art of Levinoff going to be that guy? Maybe. Or maybe they're just pretty good players.

And that's what Buffalo has, right? That's what Detroit has. You know, Detroit never won the lottery. They never got that megastar. They got a lot of really good young talent, but they don't have any megastars. And here they are kind of just stuck in the middle. Yep.

And you see, like you mentioned with Dallas, like if you take those draft picks that were taken by the Red Wings and you put them in the stars lineup, they'd be superstars right now like Jason Robertson is. But because they don't have those. And so that, so what is the correct rebuild then? like what's a team that is just ready for a rebuild? Pittsburgh is probably the best example. Is it, so we're based on this whole conversation, it seems like the argument is to not just trade everyone away and start from scratch, but is it to try to trade enough pieces to try to bring some high end young skill in while you still have Crosby and Latang or maybe Carlson?

No what I mean? Like try to keep a few of the guys around while you, like is, is it a mix? Like what do you think is the, is the, is it a mix? Like, what do you think is the, the proper way to try to rebuild. Well, I think it's going to be a hybrid, right? It's going to be a little of everything. Like, you know what? You know, what's a great, you know, what I like to see more of? The David Eurecheck trade.

Minnesota's got a good team right now. They feel like they are close to something. They didn't go out and acquire a draft pick. They went and acquired a player, a guy who's already in the NHL. And he's going to walk into a team now that's winning. That's good. That has all the right culture.

That's going to make him better. And it's going to make them better. But they also went and they got Caprizov. They signed him from Europe and that makes a huge deal. And you can get these guys these undrafted guys or was Caprizo drafted? I think it might have been actually drafted. But it took them a while to come over from Russia. And you need to do it that way.

You can't just be, I think this, I feel like the Houston Astros are to blame for this in some way, right? Like the Houston Astros just stripped it to the studs and then they won the World Series. And then the Chicago Cubs did the same thing. They went out, they just tanked for draftics. They got Chris Bryant. They got Anthony Rizzo. like all these great young players, they won the World Series. And then the Chicago White Sox tried it.

And they were supposed to be a World Series contender a year and a half ago. They just put together the worst season in the history of Major League Baseball. This is hard. This is not a science. Just stripping it all down is that's just not a good way of doing it. You have to find a hybrid. You have to sell off assets for futures. Yes.

But you also need to try to acquire young players. And then you need to go out and you need to be aggressive in free agency. The cap, the flat cap is no. Nobody's excuse anymore. Cats going up. Cats going way up. Start spending money. If you are a rebuilding team

and you have a $70 million salary cap hit right now, you are not doing your job as a general manager. You are not putting your team in a position to succeed. These six, seven, eight year plans is nonsense. It's insulting to the fans. And the fact that it works one out of every six or seven times shows that it's a folly. It's just a bad way of doing business.

Yeah, I think, I mean, I've been talking a lot about Vegas tonight. and I'm sure people are probably sick of hearing about the Golden Knights, but I think that they've built their team in a different way, and I think they've shown that there is another way to build a team out there and like obviously the expansion. But you look at all their star players now, and pretty much none of them were expansion picks.

What they did was, I think the, not loophole, but I think that the thing that they really nailed is finding players who are available for less than their value should be because of the circumstances around them. So you look at Mark Stone when he was in Ottawa. I mean, the package for Mark Stone was a first round pick, Eric Brandstrom, and a second round pick, and that's it. And you look at the, even at the time, I remember looking at it and saying,

wow, that's all they gave up for Mark Stone, one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL. You look at, now they have paid full value for a guy like Petrangelo on the open market, but then you look at like Jack Eichol. Okay, this is a franchise center that would normally never be available, but because of contract and weird injury history, negotiations with the team. They've got him for less than value. They took advantage of it. Noah Hannifin. Free agent or upcoming free agent deadline by, you get him for less than he should

have been and you sign him to a long term deal. So that's not going to work out for everyone, but I do think that there are ways to maximize your trade deadline draft picks in a way that isn't just for buying rentals. Like the Golden Knights don't buy rentals and then just let them go that summer. They are looking to trade for players that are going to be pieces of their team for the next seven years. Like you look at these guys they trade for. None of them are rentals. They have a couple guys here and there. But for the most part, they're looking at deadline acquisitions that they're going to sign to a long-term deal and be a huge part of this team.

And you're getting them for less than market value because of the upcoming contract is going to end. And you know you're going to have to sign them. Yeah, it's the money ball, right? You're looking for market inefficiencies and capitalizing on them. And I don't want to hear everyone, you know, Kevin Adams, the Sabres GM, I feel bad at really dumping on Buffalo today. But Kevin Adams, he said, like, look, Buffalo is not a destination city for a lot of these players. And sure, yeah, that's true. He's got New York taxes without New York fun.

I get it. And but look at Carolina. Carolina, Raleigh, North Carolina is not a destination city for most hockey players growing up. But, you know, Eric Tulski and before him Don Waddell, they find the market inefficiencies. They get the right players and they put them in the right. situations. Carolina never, they were bad for a while, but it's not like they were tanking. They did not just compile a whole bunch of top five picks and put this team together. They put together a good team based on smart drafting, smart free agency, and, you know, making

the right moves and finding market inefficiencies. It's really difficult. I don't mean to imply that like you can, this isn't the 1994 Rangers where you just go buy a Stanley Cup. There still is a salary cap. I get that. This isn't the Mets and Yankees fighting for Juan Soto. This is, you have to be really good. But it should be really hard. to be an NHL GM. And there should be some fire at their feet. And the fact that Steve Eiserman has the best job security in the world when his team has accomplished literally nothing during his tenure,

it's just, it's maddening to me. It's like I feel like these GMs sometimes have no accountability because they're really smart. And they say, you know what? I'm working on a long-term plan here. You can't fire me. It's only year seven of my 22-year plan. I totally agree with you make such a good point that like this isn't easy to do.

by just going out and adding free agents and trading for young players that are ready to play in the NHL, it's not easy. But neither is drafting 18-year-olds that are going to be stars in five years. Like they are both incredibly difficult to do. Maybe, but they're both incredibly difficult to do, but it seems like one route may have a higher chance of success than the other. But far more teams choose the other route, the long-term built through the draft. You see almost no teams trying to rebuild the other way, when maybe even though they're both difficult, the other one is a little bit higher rate of success. Yeah, and Chicago fans are tired to be bringing this up,

but maybe the ping pong balls bounced differently if the Blackhawks had resigned Patrick Kane, if they had kept instead of not even offering him the chance to resign, which I think he would have. I think he wanted to stay. But this team looks different if it had Patrick Kane in that room the last few years. That's a guy who knows how to win. And if you surround with people like that,

instead of the last couple of years where you just, you know, the flotsam and jetsum of the NHL and all these, you know, AHL tweener guys, it does not put your young players in position. You need the young players. You need to do what the Dallas stars do. And it's really hard. Jim Mill is really good at his job.

And he got lucky on a few of these. There's no doubt he got lucky a few times too. That's part of it. Because you're still got to get, you got to get guys, like you said, when you're drafting an 18-year-old, you're just guessing. Like I remember, I talked to Paul Goodman. who was the Black Hawk Strengthening Edition and he goes through the story a few years ago.

His job, he spends all year and he does not read anything about prospects. He goes out of his way to not read the Cory Promons and Scott Wheelers of the world. He wants to know none of these guys' names, none of the thing about they're playing. He goes to the combine in Buffalo

and he just looks these kids over while they're jumping around and running around and, you know, riding a bike. And he projects what he thinks they will look like physically at age 22. It's, and he's good at it. It's an incredible thing, but it's ridiculous when you actually say it out loud.

Like, this is what you're doing. You are drafting children hoping you know what they will look like as men. And to put all your eggs, like, that's part of it, but to put all your eggs in that basket, no matter how many first round picks you can acquire over six, seven years, it's just too much of a crapshoot, man. It's just you're not going to get flurry milk in Crosby every time. Right. Yeah.

And there's a chance you do. and they all three lose too many games by the time they're good enough and they like it's they've been ruined exactly all right we're going to talk a little four nations and we're going to talk about the uh we're going to talk about malkin and crosbina in a minute they're uh are they're back from the dead all right we're back we were just talking about the penguins a little bit of you know in a historical context but they have uh they've kind of arisen from the dead a little bit here they've won five of six the bruin's after firing they've won four straight after firing jim montgomery they won seven of nine uh uh As we keep saying, the Eastern Conference is pretty underwhelming. Did we write these teams off a little too soon? I think we did. I don't know if I wrote Boston off. I wrote Pittsburgh off. So if they're good, then I definitely wrote them off too soon.

But I'll say this. I think you look at the underlying numbers, and especially for Boston, they're very good. And Pittsburgh's PDO is fifth worst in the league. And that typically means you're due for some regression. You look at the other teams that are like in the bottom of PDO, it's Nashville, Colorado, Edmonton. Teams we all expect to play better moving forward than they have up to this point. So I think Pittsburgh deserves to be in that conversation.

And with both teams, I think goaltending has improved. Tristan Jari was off to a disastrous start. He was at times not even active for games. And he's clearly the most talented goalie on that team. And they had him as the third goalie at points. Now he's back to playing. He's won four in a row. He has an 888 safe percentage.

I don't think Tristan Jari is going to be a Vezna contender, but he's a career 9-11 safe percentage goalie. Like he's going to be above 900. He is a good above-average starting NHO goalie and should play that way. So I think that and Swamen's a stud. He started out a little rough. So I just think that both of those teams were victims of goalies playing worse than they should and getting bad bounces here and there.

And kind of those things typically tend to coincide. But yeah, I think they're both better than their records indicate. Man, I just can see the penguins like diluting themselves into thinking their contenders again. and like trying to do right by Sid and Gino and starting to add a bunch of the deadline of a team that's not going to go far. But it's, I'm torn on this because I want to see another great run for those guys

in the playoffs, but I don't believe that we will. And I don't want them to like completely hamstrung the franchise for another 10 years by doing so. But it's, hey, it's always a better league when the penguins are good. Meanwhile, I was just checking my fantasy team here during the break. And I have on my bench,

Scott Wedgwood, again, 17 and a half points after a 25 saved shutout of the New Jersey Devils, that is no small feat. We talked a little bit about Wedgwood last week. And you know, you kind of alluded that you put any goalie behind the abs. They might be a little better. But you didn't think Wedgwood was the guy. Are you an idiot?

Was Wedgwood the guy? I still don't think Wedgwood's the guy. So maybe I'm still an idiot. I'll say this. Has anyone ever become a legend in a city faster than Scott Wedgwood has in Denver, Colorado? The guy comes in his first ever appearance. for the avalan. He's never played for this team in his entire life. The first appearance he makes, he's down 4-0-0 to start the game. They pulled Georgiev after 4-0 first period. It took Wedgwood

40 minutes of hockey to become a legend in Colorado. The guy, they come back, win that game 5'4. Now he shuts out the devils, one of the most high-powered, high-octane offenses in hockey. He's feeling it right now. And playing behind the Colorado Avalanche will do that to a goalie. Like I said before, I think they make things easy on their goalies. I think that it's, you're going to see a better Scott Wedgwood than you saw in Nashville. But I still think that best case scenario for the Colorado Avalanche, if these are their two goalies, is that Scott Wedgwood comes in, stabilizes things, allows, take some of the pressure off of Georgia. Because right now, it's, man, when you're the guy and Justice Anudin's the only other goalie and he's a rookie and easy, when you're

struggling and you can't find your game, it's like, dude, if you don't find your game, this season is going to be over for everyone in the building. Like, guys are going to lose their jobs. Like, this is, like, we, everything is writing on you finding your game. All of a sudden, Scott Wedgwood comes in, plays some good games. He can take some pressure off. He can win some games for the avalanche, keep them afloat. Let Georgiev find his game.

I still think that when Giorgiyev is the better goalie of the two, when they're both at the top of their game, Georgiev is the better goalie. I think the best case scenario for the abs is for Giorgiyev to take this opportunity to work on his game, maybe get a few more practices in. not quite as many game nights. The thing with goalies is it's hard to change things in the season because say you have one practice and you play every other night, if the goalie coach is telling you,

hey, on this play, I want you to do this technique a little differently. Well, you can't just practice it for 30 minutes in practice and then just go do that that night in the game when you want your brain just firing. You don't want to have to think about how you're moving. It's very, very difficult to make adjustments when you're playing every night. I think Wedge would coming in here and taking some more of the start, giving Giorgi have some more practice time.

I really do think that that's valuable. And well, it gives, I'm not sitting here saying Giorgiv's going to turn around and be awesome, but I think the chances of him doing that are so much better with Wedgwood doing what he's doing. I'll play devil's advocate here. Giorgiev's never really been true number one where he has held down the net and been dominant. Is this a threat? Does he take that and does it put pressure on him where he starts pressing too hard and he has an even worse game? and all of a sudden he's losing his net.

You know, ideally, you know, in the modern NHL, you want to have a pretty even split between your goalies. But, you know, if Wedgwood keeps playing like this, he's going to take the net. And Georgiev has not been good enough to resist that. And you wonder if that gets in his head. Because all goalies live in their heads. And, you know, you wonder if that pressure cooks up,

heats him up a little bit. I, you know what? That's not a bad argument. I think that absolutely is one of the, that is an outcome within the realm of possibility. I just, I think Wedgwood's going to be. good. I think he can be a solid veteran backup goalie that gives you, the aves don't need you to stand on your head on most nights. So he's going to win some games with the abs. But I just don't,

maybe I'm wrong. We've seen crazier things happen. Jordan Bittington started in the ECHL the year he won the Stanley Cup for the Blues. And he, and he won it for the Blues. Like, it was all Jordan Bington. So we've seen crazier things than this, but I just, my gut tells me that Scott Wedgwood is probably not the goalie you're going to win the Stanley Cup with. We'll see if I'm wrong. I just, I think he's a very good solid veteran guy who can bring a stabilizing force, and he has immediately way faster than I or even probably the avalanche expected. But I just think, I still think the abs need to get your give going or trade for a different goalie. Like I said, I remember the day they traded him.

It reminds me of the Jake Allen trade for the devils. And then they went and got Markstrom. And I think Allen is great for New Jersey. And I think Wedgwood is great for Colorado. I just don't know if it's the move to win you to cup. Jesse can be found on Twitter and Blue Sky. I think it's his full name in the underscore. Denverites, Denverers.

I don't know what you call yourselves. He does not believe in the Savior, and you should let him hear it for as a result. Before we wrap up the show, we want to talk a little bit about the Four Nations. I know you've got the bet NGM odds. They're finally out, now that they have rosters. And I don't know these.

I'm curious to hear that. I'm assuming it's Canada or the United States. Who's the betting favorite? Yeah, so I've been waiting for these odds basically all season. I've been checking the bed MGM site, wondering when we're going to get these. And I should have figured that out. They waited until we got the rosters before they set the odds, so they actually know which Haku teams they're setting odds for it.

And that makes sense. So now we've got the rosters. And I wouldn't say any big surprises, but let's get your thoughts on it. So the favorites are, as everyone expected, Canada, at plus 160. So for any non-gamblers out there, that's $100 bet wins you $160. So a little bit more than your money back. USA second right there next to Canada at plus 170. So they basically have the same odds for USA and Canada.

And then that's where the gap happens. Third most likely to win the event is Sweden at plus 425, so a little bit more than four to one money to bet on Seam Sweden. And then Finland plus 650, six and a half to one odds for Finland to win. And I got to say, I've been looking at the rosters. and the first thing that stood out to me was, like, obviously Canada is stacked, the U.S. is stacked. I was like, I didn't realize how good the Finn and Swedish Nelson were going to be when I saw him. So my first thoughts when seeing these is like, I don't know if I could bet USA or Canada at basically a little more than even money while you can get six or four to one with the two teams that are also stacked with superstar NHL players.

Yeah, no, the thing about Finland is we always talk about this. Finland plays the right way. Like, whatever reason, Finland immediately jails. They play Finnish-style hockey. Everyone always talks about, like, we all just play the same way. They play a smart defensive game. And it means something to them. Like, remember when Finland won the World Championships a couple years

or the world championships in Finland is bigger than the Olympics in Finland. Like, that's their tournament. They get up for this stuff. And like the whole world, I was here Kevin Lankinen was their goalie. So I talked to him a lot about what it was like. Finland's like legit. Like, those odds, I understand having Canada, the United States one and two.

I don't understand having Canada ahead of the United States, given the goaltending situation there. But I guess that's just getting by on reputation. I mean, I'm not an odds maker. I'm not a gambler. But I would have Team USA at like 170 and Canada at like $2,10 or something like that. Like it would still be almost co-favorites, but I'm going with the team with the best goal with Connor Hellebuck,

not the team with, you know, I don't even say Montembo or whatever. So, but yeah, like don't sleep on Sweden and Finland. These tournaments don't always work out the way you expect them to. You make a very good point about the Finns jelling and like the fact that they all kind of play the same type of hockey. And this is a tournament where I have any of these guys ever played in any tournament with where they've had less practice time together than they will for this one. What are they going to get one skate, maybe two skates with each other before they play? So that is an aspect of this that I hadn't really thought of of like which team can gel. Because in my mind it's like, well, they're all going to be going through the same thing.

so it's not really an advantage or a disadvantage for anyone. But if the Finns can, and again, they've got, we talked about Hellebuck, UC Soros is the type of goalie that can steal you four games. And like this dude has been doing this his whole life. Like that is, UC Soros is, of all the goalies in this tournament, there's a bunch of really good ones. Most of them play for the U.S. because they're so stacked. But UC Soros is the type of goalie that can can steal you some games.

This finished team is incredibly talented. Like I said, I was shocked. looking at the roster, I'm like, oh my God, this is, there's way more talent on this roster than I was thinking in my head when I just tried to think of the best finished player. So, yeah, I think six and a half to one for Finland, that would probably be the best value on the board. Yeah, I feel like there's like a little bit of a sentiment among general hockey fans that Finland just kind of got thrown in there because Russia can't be in it. And Finland's like the token team they threw in there, but that's not the kid. I'll be honest. I hope they don't take

my US passport for this. I'm rooting for Finland, man. Like, it's the best story. It would be the, They're the biggest underdog, and they just, I don't know, there's something about the way the Finns embrace these kind of short tournaments that it's really easy to get behind. And they got the best jerseys. Come on, the Swolmey jerseys, you can't beat that. They are nice. I love the Swedish jerseys too with the crowns on.

They have been nice. All right, that's our show. Thanks to Jesse Granger and whatever we decided to call this, Talker, Texas Ranger or something like that. Yeah, I don't remember. I love that you made a Chuck Norris reference, and then you made another reference after it and said, this might be too old of a reference.

I'm an old. I'm an old decrepit, pathetic suburban dad. That's just basically what we have to learn here. Frank Carrotto is between two shawans on Wednesday. Thanks for listening to The Athletic Hockey Show. Please leave us a five-star rating and review if you're enjoying the show. We'll catch you next time.