The Athletic Hockey Show - Is Michkov or Celebrini the Calder favorite?

Episode Date: September 5, 2024

On today’s Prospect Series episode of The Athletic Hockey Show, Max, Corey, and Scott answer listener questions and comments about Corey’s U23 rankings and the guys discuss Scott’s take on this season’s Calder Trophy race.Hosts: Max Bultman and Corey PronmanWith: Scott WheelerExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody. Max Boltman here, alongside Scott Wheeler and Corey Pranman for another episode of the Fletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. It's backlash day to Corey's U23 pipeline rankings and the U23 rankings overall. We got a full mailbag of fan reaction and questions to get to. First, we're going to start, Scott, with a piece you ran this week, kind of preview in the Calder Trophy race for next season. And it should be a really fun race.

We've obviously got this most recent. and first overall pick Macklin Celebrini's in the mix. But I think the most interesting factor right off the hop. And we talked about him just a little bit last week with Corey, is Motvay Michkov, who comes into this maybe a little earlier than most of us probably expected to see him in the NHL. What do you expect from Motvay Michkov in this 2024-2020-5 season? And what's reasonable to expect?

I think the big thing with Michikov is that he's kind of exactly what the flyers have been missing. Travis Kineckney is an excellent player. Owen Tippett's an excellent player. Joel Farabee had 50 points last year. Morgan Frost is figuring it out. They've got some good players in their sort of top six, top nine, but they had the worst power play in the league last year. I believe their power play last year finished at like 12.5%. It was not just the worst, but the worst by a wide margin. And he gives them that sort of injection of skill, that injection of power play talent. He's quite likely going to play right at the top of their lineup. And there are really two things that you need to be in the conversation for the Calder. You need high-end skill and that allows you to put up points and then voters inevitably

vote on the basis of those points. But you also need an opportunity. And he just feels uniquely positioned amongst the top players in the league to really step right in and from the jump be PP1, top, if not first line, then a top six winger for them. And I think the X factor with him is just John Tortorella and sort of what that relationship is going to look like. Will he struggle defensively and off the puck like he has sort of traditionally throughout his career, including in the KHL? Will that be a point of frustration and contention with Torterella? Could he be a healthy scratch at some point in his season if things really go south? That's the risk factor with Mietchkov. But I think when we, when Harmon and I sort of sat down and started debating the names that are

that are really in that consensus group at the top of this rookie class. I think there's a little bit of risk that each of their seasons don't go exactly the way that we want them to. There is no Connor Bedard who's just going to play and score a ton in this group. But Michikov, I think the ceiling is highest for Mewchkov because of the opportunity, because of the players he's going to be playing with, and because of how badly they need a sort of pure skill guy to come and make plays. Yeah, I'm a huge bad of Mavei, Mischk.

cover. I think his skill, his hockey sense, or special qualities, the things he can do with the offensive zone and on the power play are rather unique. And I think I, some would argue, I have him rated too high, like quite frankly. I think I have, you know, a really high projector on this player. And there are some scouts who I talked to who agree with that. I think he's going to come in and have instant success in their top six and score a lot and just look like a stud young player. But there are some scouts who watched him last year in the KHL who have serious reservations that's going to translate right away. They look at an undersized winger of not a great skater who's not super competitive,

and they wonder what's going to happen when an NHL coach, like John Totorello gets his hands on that player, and the first time he doesn't give it as all on a back check or he gets just completely outmuscled on every 50-50 battle during a game, and especially as such a young player, it'll be really interesting to see how he handles that transition to the NHL. as someone who never really, he had big numbers in the KHL, but was often on a bottom feeding Sochi team. He never really got a chance to excel on the top Scott team during the course of his contract with Scott,

other than just the select appearances here or there. So I think some wonder just, how is he going to, how is he going to handle going to even a better level and trying to maintain consistent success there? I think he can do it. I think he is that talented. But like Scott said, It is not a sure thing with him.

There's probably not a sure thing rookie in this class. And I can see scenarios where Mitch Codd struggles in his rookie NHL season. If there's a big challenger to him, it is Macklin Celebrini, we would think, Scott. And I think you have them one, two on this list. But how do you kind of compare the challenges that they face? Celebrini a year younger, he's going to have not as strong as supporting cast around him. But maybe you do expect him to have a little more lenience, I suppose, that helps the ice time? Yeah, the challenge with Celebrini is that he's also got another teammate who might be the second line center behind him, who's also going to be factoring into the conversation, was sort of further down valid on our list, if you will, in Will Smith, right?

So what does that look like? It's been a long time since we've seen an NHL team run. I can't even remember, frankly, the last time we saw an NHL team run, I mean, is it Crosby and Malkin run two teenagers, one two down the middle? it's going to be a tall task and a tall task as you mentioned without without the support and cast right like who's he playing with is it Eklind is it Zetterberg regardless of who it is it's not going to be a sort of marquee NHL proven scorer type to support him what's the first power play going to look like there as well will will Smith even hang around all year does he spend some time in the NHL does will Smith go off and play at the world juniors.

All of those things are sort of real outcomes. I spoke to someone who suggested in the lead up to this about Will Smith, who suggested that they're actually confident that he'll end up at the world juniors when this is all said and done. So what's the insulation like around Macklin Celebrini, I think, is the real question. He's ready from a physical standpoint. He can skate. He can play with these guys.

He's going to be a good player, I think, right from the jump. But what's the, like, is the leading. score on this year San Jose Sharks, a 45, 50 point guy. Like, can he even get to that sort of 60 point plateau that wins you a calder? What does that look like in terms of the power play and the supporting cast? That's, that's the big question for Macklin. I think he's going to look like an NHL player from the jump. It's just can, can he produce over the course of 82 games on that team enough to win the thing? Smith would be a challenger here too. I mean, it'd be probably tough to unseat celebrini on his own team.

But Corey, there's other names here, Cutter Gautier, Lane Hudson, Logan Stankov, and all some of the guys that Scott and Harmon profiled in this race. If I asked you for a non-Mitchkoff Celebrini, who's your pick that could actually upset the Applecart here and take a real shot at this thing? I think it's who they have a three that would be Logan Stanko. I mean, you just looked at how good he was as a pro and his rookie pro season.

He was the best player in the American League, came up to the NHL with Dallas, helped them win games in the playoffs, even though with his small stature, he checks every box you want. Otherwise, with emphasis, he's such a great skater, super competitive, super skilled. I think, you know, he's going to have a very nice second pro season. He will get his points. He will get power play opportunities.

And I think he will do what he's done for many, many years as just keep scoring and be a guy who coaches trust, even despite his smaller stature. That's the one to me who I think has a very reasonable chance to win the Calder this season. I think he is that good. Can he win it if he's playing on the third line, do you think? Or does he need to be kind of up in that top six with like a doucheon? He probably isn't.

He's playing on the third line, but I would not count out of this player of finding a way to unseat some of those veterans if they don't come out of the gates hot. And he does what I think he's going to do in the first half of the season. Maybe easier than doing, than, you know, unseeding some of those big names as another kind of scoring forward, Scott, could be just having a completely different argument as a goalie. And there are some goalies in this class that could be interesting. Can you run us through kind of the candidates? And that Stuart Skinner was a guy who I think made a little bit of a push and got

himself in that conversation in his rookie year. Yeah, I mean, even Joel Hopper had a strong season last year as a rookie in the NHL in St. Louis. There were throughout really every year. If you look back at the Calder Trophy, there's always a goalie that ends up, if not on the ballot in the top three. that ends up fifth or sixth in voting that kind of a thing. And this year we have two young goalies that the average fan is extremely familiar with in Dustin Wolf and Yaroslav Ascarov, two players who've been sort of notorious in terms of their success over the last couple of years. Ascarov in the KHL and then HL the last two seasons, Wolf in the WHL and the HL and

the HL, they both have opportunities in San Jose and Calgary, respectively, to take the nets. Now, the question for both of those clubs is, Are they going to lose a lot of games? Is Ascarov, can, even if he has a strong season in San Jose, can he sustain a 900 safe percentage playing behind that team and how much they're going to give up? Same thing for Dustin Wolf. Can he play 50 games or is he going to play 30? But those guys are both going to be part of a tandem in the NHL

and there are players that people, the average fan is already familiar with. And then there's Justice Anunin and Archer Silob's maybe players that the average fan is maybe a little less familiar with. Silovs has obviously broken into the league already and played some games, including some playoff games in Vancouver last year. He was a standout at Men's Worlds for Latvia. But he's got an opportunity early on this season in particular because of Thatcher Demko's injury. Syloves has an opportunity to play games right from the jump.

So if he gets due to Demko's injury, if Seelob's gets 30 or 40 games this season. Can he play himself into the conversation? And then the same goes for Annen in Colorado. I was actually a little bit surprised that the avalanche didn't go out and sign someone to play behind Alexander Georgiev. Anunin, again, played games for them last year, played well in the games that he played for them last year, actually had better numbers than Georgiev in the games that he played. But Georgiev feels vulnerable to me in Colorado, despite how strong that team has traditionally been. So if he runs into a poor spell of play, Ken and Noonan be a sort of down-ballot guy that maybe surprises people and get some Calder votes, I think that's something to sort of keep an eye on.

And to your point, Scott, the narrative there is, can be powerful, right? Corey, like, Seelops has this moment in the playoffs and now there's the possibility that he could, you know, be the guy for a likely playoff team to start the year. I do think that there is some, some potency and what that narrative can do for someone's candidacy. Yeah, I agree. When it comes to goal, when it comes to goalies in the Calder votes as opportunities, most of the Calder, quite friendly, is a combination of talent and opportunity. So, you know, I look at, say, Ascarov versus Wolf,

and I think Ascarov is a way better goalie prospect and a way better talented, way better than Siloves too, quite frankly. But, you know, is he going to get 50, 60 games in the NHL this year? Or is he going to get 20 or 30? That's a big part of the calculus and determining whether a goal is actually going to be in the serious running for this award. All right. Let's take a quick break right there. We'll come back. We'll talk a little bit more, Corey, about your favorite topic, the U23 rankings and the backlash to them. All right, we are back. And Corey, when we did the pipeline recordings and even the U23 ranking episodes, we pre-recorded all of those before your article actually dropped. now that it's out, I'm always curious, what did you hear the most about whether, we'll get to what the fans want to talk about in a second here, but what did you hear from NHL people about your list?

Surprisingly, I didn't hear a whole lot about stuff that was going on at the very top, like the top 15, top 20, top 25 players there. Not to say that people in the league had a lot of agreements on every single player, but I think people knew that there were camps that had, you know, Dickinson really high or had Zeyov really high or had Anton Selyev really high or had Yakubchuk very high. So it wasn't something that would be new to people in the lead that, oh, you have this player in this order, these players in this order, for example, everyone had their own opinions on where Yakensuch fit, where Dickinson fit, where Selyev fit, where Selyev fit, where Demadov and Kannon and Seneca fit. And people knew there were a lot of people around hockey that had some of these players ranked extremely highly. So that wasn't really

novel. In terms of guys in his most recent draft, I did get a little pushback on Jet Lechenko, because I think I had him like 85, 90, the 13th overall picked by Philly. Some thought he should have been a little bit higher than that. I think there are still some minor questions on this long-term offense, but there are some, there was quite a few scouts I talked to you after the draft that said, like, we had this guy rated super, super high. And so they would say he probably deserves to be more in the premium prospect category. So that was something I got that I had, rating Yeager rated a decent number of spots ahead of Rutgers from Rickorty was something I got some blowback on I think Max brought this up in the previous episode because they just

got traded for each other so some wondered why there was that kind of gap there whether McRority should even be rated ahead of Yeager that was a couple of comments I got in that regard but really other than that like you know there are some odd things here or there but I didn't get a ton of like actually again really top of the list like hey this looks massively even if not everyone is always going to agree on everything nobody ever does well with that said then let's turn it over to the fan reaction here because certainly some fans particularly in montreal who would beg to differ on a couple of these so i'll direct a lot of these to corey since they're at his rankings but scott i do want you to jump in after corey talks here and get your

thoughts on some of these too which is i thought which i find funny because i thought i was pretty optimistic about montreal's young players in general i feel like i've been banging the year I slapped Kovsky drum very loudly these last few years. I had a lot of their young defensemen rated very highly. Michael Hage, I have rated highly. So I find that interesting that they are big mad at me. But anyways, go on. Well, apparently not optimistic enough. I think the topic that had people the most fired up could be best summed up by Matthew, who simply says Yakumchuk over Demadov. Yeah. And obviously, I know that the public sentiment was more Demandov over acting chuck in some by a considerable margin.

But I guess, and that's just my opinion. I might be wrong. You know, we'll see in five or six years how that plays out. But like I would say, you know, one player went fifth overall. One player went seventh overall. It's not like the league had this massive disagreement about this player. It'd be like two years later saying like, you know, William Eklund over Kent Johnson, really. Like, or, you know, uh, you know, which one was, uh,

it was the year that Evanson and Clark was the same Yeah they say Brad Like Brent Clark over Simon Evanson really Like no it's like there's reasonable arguments both ways Then and now on those debates For example

And we'll see with time Right Like that's I'm not gonna rehash the arguments On these players I like Yakum Chuck's profile I think he has some special offensive traits He has size he can skate He's competitive

I think Ivan's the most skilled With the most skilled player in his draft He's competitive of skating worries me a little bit, but other than that, he's a pretty complete profile, and we'll see how their careers go. If I had to guess, I think the reason that it was that dramatic, and Scott can probably speak to this because he had Demadov rated really highly, is that I think there was a sense that Demadov only went five because of these kind of like,

you know, Russian factor kind of variables, whereas I think people saw Yakumtruck is going about where he should have or in some people's eyes, maybe a little higher. Scott, I think you would probably be in that camp, right? But I would disagree with that. I would. Like, I disagree that. No, I know you read them that way. But also, there wasn't how the league viewed those players. The league did not have Demadov universally two or three on all their list. There were plenty of teams that had Demadov six to ten. It's, that was just, it was, there was a group of 11 to 12 players after Celebrini. And teams had varying orders on those players. And we'll see who was right at the end of the day. But I know what the public viewed in terms of this debate, but I can, assure you there were plenty of teams that had Yakenschukha had of Demadov.

I just, I think a lot of it was influenced ultimately by Chicago too and the very public knowledge by come draft time that it came down for Chicago to Ivan Demadov and Erichim Lev Shunov. So as a result, the average fan who followed along with the conversations around the draft had in their head that, okay, this kid has a chance to go to. And if he doesn't go to and he's available at five, that's a steal. And I'm certainly, as you, you hinted at, I was in the camp that believed that those were the next two, two players in the draft after Macklin Celebrini. But I don't think Corey's sort of off deed, if you will, in terms of suggesting that there

were teams that had Carter Yakimchuk higher than Ivan Demadov. My survey that I did pre-draft tended to have Yakumchuk sort of at the back of that group of the defensemen, but there were also people who answered my survey who were high on Yakumchuk in terms of that group of five or six consensus top D at the top of the draft. So it wasn't a huge surprise that he went where he did to Ottawa by no means. You know, but he said the framing. I think that's a great point because, you know, Artim Lefshedov goes too. I love Arndham Lefshedov.

I know you do too, Scott. But there were teams that didn't have him as a top three defenseman in the draft. Yeah. You know, and if a different team had been picking at two, I think it would be a completely different debate at two. And you'd be seeing all these different rumors and whatever coming out. And it would have framed the debate of it. Because I just think there was this grouping at the top that was really large.

I think it was one comment he made to me last week, Max, you're like, well, you have these 2024 draft eligible rated really highly at the top of your list. It's like, yeah, because it didn't have Fantilli, Leo Carlson, Bedard the top. But this top 10 was an outstanding top 10. There was some really good players picked in the 5 to 10 range relative to other years. All right. So since Scott mentioned Chicago, let's go to a Chicago one next from Rinkside General. This one dripping with a little bit of sarcasm.

I know your ratings favor, two-way players over skilled first. forwards who you don't perceive as elite. But Frank Nazar below Colton Dock and Isaac Phillips and the Blackhawks rankings. That is, I guess he wants justice for Frank Nazar here is what ringside general is looking for. No, it's a, I, being quite honest, I didn't read almost any comments this past week when the pipeline rankings and U23s went up, just because there's just so many of them, there was no way from you to like comprehensively get an idea of what everybody was mad about or answer

them in a way that would be calm and rational. But I did have some people privately send me messages about Nazar, and I got some media people who I know in Chicago messaged me about that. So I guess here would be, Levy, before I get to my answer, I want it to turn it to you too here for a second. And let's put aside Frank Nazar for a moment. It will get back to him. But Max and Scott, you've watched this player a lot.

I'd be curious where your long-term NHL projection is. of Gavin Brinley. I think he's a good scoring, probably third line player, whether it's at center or on the wing, and I think on a team that really needs him to, I think he could play up onto the second line. But he's an energy guy.

You can use him pretty trustworthy in all situations, but he's not going to be, you know, like a huge stopper because of the size, but he's a great skater, bring you some offense, good shot. That's probably how I'd term him. Yeah, I think he's a third.

line or potential up and down the lineup guy in the prime of his career. Could he be at some point in his career the third best go-getter on a top six line? I think absolutely. But I think the projection is probably a middle-six guy who just has a ton of speed and plays the game to work his ass off kind of thing. So that's what your opinion was of Brinley, a guy who was only had been drafted for one year as of this past year. Nazar had been drafted. He was in his draft plus two a year. Sorry, the way I said that was a little convoluted. I would argue at Michigan this past year that Gavin Brinley was notably better than Frank Nazer. Would you guys agree or disagree with that statement? I would agree. I think Brinley was great this year, yeah. I would argue

at the World Juniors, Gavin Brinley was better than Frank Nazer. Would you agree to disagree with that statement? Agree. I thought they were comparable. I thought they were two of the better players on that team in the tournament. Okay, so maybe agree, may disagree. You know, in terms of projecting to the pro game, it's not like one guy's 5 foot 8, one guy's 6 foot 3. Nazar's what, like 2 inches bigger? Yeah.

Than Nazar, probably. And I agree that there's just been a Brindley. I think he's probably a middle six wing, you know, just so we can piss off a second fan base in the middle of this. But that's my projection for the player. And I would say, so this is a guy who is, younger, who has played better, who has shown more offense, and is not that much small, you know, smaller than Nazar.

And we're thinking he's probably like a third line wing in the NHL. So that would be my argument. Like I think that's my question when Nazar is I love his speed. I love his tenacity. I love to compete. I think there is some offense there. I do wonder for like a 5-10 guy is there going to be like significant offense in the NHL.

And I know that that's not the, all. the consensus opinion because talking to Scott Powers, like he thinks Nazar might make the team this year. It might be like in their top nine, top six. Maybe I'm way off from everything I saw this past year and before that of my assessment of Nazar.

Some scouts I talked to think he's going to have a lot of offense in the NHL. I think his hockey sense of skill is excellent. That's not personally what I've seen, but time will tell. Yeah, I think the argument too does kind of hinge on it. You talked about wing. Like if he can be a center, I think, but it still comes back to that offense.

in his draft year, I think if you loved Frank Nazar, you saw a potential Vincent Trochec. And at this point, like, that, that is a big ask offensively. That's 70 plus points last year from Vincent Trochec. Even if he settles in at like, you know, more where Trochec lived in his career, which was like the high 50s kind of thing, that's still quite a bit of offense. I think the question that the commenter was asking is an interesting one, though, still in that what would you project Corey for Colton Dock during his? career or Isaac Phillips during his career. I think Doc is a middle six forward could be a third

line center just because he's so big and fast. I think there is some offense there. Like, you know, he's shown he could play in both special teams. Like, I think his role is very projectable. There's places in the lineup for him to play. Like with Nazar, like, you don't see a whole lot of like bottom six energy guys who are five foot 10. Those guys do exist, but they're hard to have very long and successful careers for. So like if I'm wrong on Nazar, I'm. I'm, because he scored way more than I expected he was going to the NHL, whereas I feel like Doc's going to play. Is he going to have a long and highly successful career?

I don't know, but I feel like there's traits there. And same thing with Phillips. I think Phillips clear path. He's big. He's skates well. He can make a first pass versus pros. He's been very good in the American League. He competes well enough.

I think there's a clear path to be like a five, six defenseman and play 200, 300 games. Yeah. All right. Let's go to the next one here from Mack Merring. He says with Lucas Raymond, who had 72 points in 82 games. and Wyatt Johnson, who had 65 points in 82 plus a really strong playoffs with 16 and 19, excuse me, having comparable years to Tim Stutzla, why is Stutzla number two and the others considerably lower? I mean, he is, oh, universe different skater than those two. Like those two are mediocre skaters, and Stutzla is probably like one of the best skaters in the NHL.

And I know Stutz's production came down a bit last year, but when I watched him, I saw a guy who was just generating a ton of scoring chances that I thought was just probably the year before that, he probably was getting a little too lucky at times. And this past year maybe a little unlucky, maybe the troops in the middle there a little bit. But I think this guy is just an absolute dynamo,

as his skating, his skill, as compete. And I love White Johnson. I love Lucas Raymond. I think they're going to be absolute tremendous NHL players. Johnson looks like a star for a very long time, but Stozel to me is a guy who, if Ottawa ever wins, it's because this guy became like a top 10 player in the NHL. I think he has that kind of potential. Is he more of a slam dunk center for Johnson than you?

Does that play a role in it at all? Stoza? Yeah. I think both. I think both have a path to be really successful in H.L. centers. I just think Stutz's, his toolkit is just so rare. Like, you don't see guys who have that kind of offense who skate the way he does. He's a really special player.

Scott, did you have any thoughts here on Stutzler versus Johnson and Raymond? No, I would have had them slotted closer together in my list, but I mean, I think Tim's a better prospect and player. And I agree with Corey in terms of the ordering of them. All right, well, let's stick with the senators then here. We'll go to Patrick McConnell, who wants to know is Jake Sanderson and Carter Yakumchuk trending toward being the next Ryan Souter Shea Weber pairing based on obviously Corey, you're ranking on YACC.

Yeah, yeah, I don't know if they would stylistically be played the exact same way as those guys. But, you know, especially, you know, I see with Shabbat in the mix. I'm, and you see how high I am on Stozel. Like, I think what Ottawa's building there is really exciting despite the fact there haven't been really been, really been results there that would reflect that excitement. I think if you actually take a step back, you look at the young players, you know,

we'll see if Josh North could ever stay healthy. Obviously, Shane Pinto had a tumultuous season last year. you're with the suspension. But if you really look at the pieces they're putting together there, if they even get a little bit of goal tending at some point, and I think they have the players there now to get that goal tending, like I think they have the potential to kind of break up what's been the traditional teams in their division to make the playoffs

and do that rather soon. All right. Let's take a quick break right there. We'll be back with more mailbag in a second. All right, we are back. And this next one is, I'm going to give you a two-partner because we got a couple different questions on this one. Nick H says you rank Jamie Driesdale slightly ahead of Cutter-Gotier in your recent U-23 list.

Would you take Driesdale over Gautier in a one-for-one straight up? The other one comes from Dan T, who points out that when these two were traded for each other, you gave the Ducks in A-minus for getting Cutter-Gotier, whereas you gave the flyers a B-minus for getting Jamie Driesdale and a second rounder. So what has changed since then? So obviously that trade didn't happen in the summer. It happened shortly after the World Juniors, so we keep watching the players. And I know Goetje had a monster year in college.

I had the World Juniors. He's a great player. He's big. He can skate. He has a great shot. He's very skilled. There are some things in his game, and I obviously watched a ton of those Boston teams this season.

And there were, you know, I thought an alarming number of games where I watched Boston College, and I did not think Conor Goce was their best player or even their second best player in some of those games. And some of that just due to how good Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, Gay-Perrault, were this past year. But I do wonder how good his hockey senses.

I do wonder at times how competitive he was in those important games. I thought in a lot of those important games, quite frankly, it was those younger players that were standing out more consistently like Ryan Leonard. So that was a concern to me. And when the trade happened, I thought he was going to be an NHL. center because he looked like he was playing center at the world juniors he was playing center in college and now like just you know kind of my understanding talking to scout since then and kind of seeing what the roster is going to be projecting out going forward it kind of feels like gochie is going to be

a wing in the nchel and that changed my calculus notably because now it's like he's kind of like this this big straight line you know catch and shoot winger and i just don't know how valuable that player type is relative to a top four offenseman even if that top four defenseman in drysdale is often hurt and maybe the offense hasn't been as significant in the NHL as you hoped it was going to be. So that would be my rationale. I'm sure some Anaheim fans do not appreciate that rationale, but that was my perspective going into it. And to the first question, would you trade Drydale for Goce, one for one right now? I would if I was in a manager seat.

And the reason is if in that specific scenario is if I was training for Cutter Goet, I would want some answers to what the heck happened in Philadelphia, and I don't have those answers yet. But that's a whole other set of issues. That doesn't play into the player evaluation. Scott, do you have any thoughts here on Drysdale versus GoTo? Well, I think the center versus wing thing is an interesting one because he's played so much of both over the last three years,

and ultimately it does look like he's going to be a winger. I think for a long time, I felt he was a winger, just watching him just because of the shot off the flank and his size, and the lack of the sort of hockey sense piece. He never felt like a natural sort of playmaker down the middle of the ice, that kind of a thing. But I do think he's going to be a more impactful player in the NHL in the prime of his career than Jamie Drysdale is going to be.

I'm starting to question, and I know injuries have played such a big role in it, but even last year after the trade to Philadelphia, when the Flyers played him a ton right out of the gate, I just thought there were times like Jamie didn't know sort of who he was out there or how he needed to play. I thought he was ineffective in a lot of ways. The skating really wowes you, but I'm just not sure. I'm not sure anymore what Jamie's going to be as a full-time NHL player.

I think it's obvious that he is one with the way that he skates and can impact play that way. But I thought Cam York, for example, was head and shoulders better than him when he got there. And it wasn't even close in terms of watching the two players in the way that they impacted play. And I thought it was going to be closer between those two players than it was. So that's where that sort of trade comes down to me, down to it for me, if you will, is that even if Cutter-Gote is a winger, if he's playing with Mason McTavish or a Leo Carlson long-term and having success with those guys and scoring 20, 30 goals a year in the NHL, I think that's ultimately probably going to make him a higher impact player than Jamie Drysdale if he's at number

four, for example. York a couple years older, right? I mean, that's fair to point out. Yep. The name I thought about with Cutter, especially if he is a winger, would be like, I wonder how similar he's going to be to say, you know, need a writer when he gets to the NHL, who also was a fifth overall pick. And if he is a wing, then I can kind of see the play styles and the physical profiles

be quite similar. All right. Let's go to the next one. Another one out of Montreal, Corey. This one's from ironically Arlton's Leaf, so maybe not out of Montreal, but about a Montreal player, why do you believe Lane Hudson's puck skills are average? And I guess this is where we remind people that

in Corey's rankings, average is a good thing. It's NHL average. Yeah, but I watched Hudson. He obviously is very skilled. He can make one-v-one plays, and he has a high skill level. But for me, I feel like his hockey sense is what drives too much of his offense.

Like his vision is exceptional. He makes so many difficult plays. He shows so much poise with the puck at the blue line holding onto it, finding seems. That, to me, is how he creates his offense. Now, if I'm wrong on Hudson, meaning like, if he becomes the next Adam Fox, then I probably, you know, I think he is exceptionally talented offensively. I probably was underrated that he probably will have like elite, elite offense. It becomes like a 70-ish point defenseman in the NHL.

He's playing 23 minutes a night. To do that with his size and lack of dynamic feet, like he will need to just be one of the very smartest players in the NHL with really high-end skill. That's what happened with Adam Fogg. Everybody knew he was super smart, but he wasn't just super smart. He was crazy smart. You know, he just, his hockey census got to be top five in the NHL. And that would have to be the path for Hudson, is that I think he's very gifted offensively. But if, you know, and that's reflected in the grades I gave him.

But maybe some people think I'm wrong. They think he is one of the most talented players in the world. And if he is that, then Montreal will be very excited by him. Scott, you're still on the, I mean, we're all on the lane train here, I guess, to be clear, but you're still very high toward the front of the lane train. Yeah, my only concern with Lane is whether he's going to be able to defend enough to play 20 plus minutes reliably throughout his career. That's literally my own.

In terms of the offense, I think he's magic. I think he's an escape artist offensively. I think he's going to lose guys in coverage. He's going to find ways to make things happen in the offensive zone. he's going to make some highlight real plays, including this year. I think he is one of the most talented young players in the world right now in terms of skill set and his ability to create with the puck on his stick. My big question with Wayne is just, is he going to give up just as much as the other end?

Like is he going to become a Shane Gostis Barry or Keith Yandel, guys who struggled, even Mike Green throughout parts of his career, guys who were dynamic offensively, among the more talented offensive defensemen in the NHL, but just gave up so much back the other way that their value wasn't always in line with their point totals, for example. So that's my question with Lane is, can he show me starting this year,

can he show me that he can defend? He's not going to get pushed around in the corners, that he's not going to lose his man on boxouts. I think that's going to be a real challenge for him. I think he's a very competitive kid. He's got it in his DNA to battle and to be in the mix, but is he just going to be too limited defensively to really play the kind of minutes that you need to play to be a 60 or 70 point defenseman? Even if he has that kind of talent, you still have to play 22, 23 minutes a night in order to get those points.

So that's the only question. Is he a 17 minutes a night guy who puts up a ton of points, but maybe gives back a little bit too much? Or can he actually hang defensively? Because even if he can be average defensively in the NHL, I think the skill level and the offensive ability inside, the offensive zone is so high end that he'll be a high end player. So as Max said, I think we all like the player a lot. I mean, if you go through just U23 list identity, you go through just the players in his draft year,

Lane would be my 15th ranked player from his draft for a player who went in the 60s two years ago. So like, again, I know Scott's among the higher on Lane, you know, just among people in general. So like, I would ask you, like, would you take, like, would you take, Lane Hudson ahead of Pavel Michikov, yes or no? Probably. You would take him ahead of Mitchikov?

Probably. Okay, so you think, so you think, is he the best defenseman in the draft then for you? I think he's got an opportunity to be the best defenseman in the draft. That's not my question. You think he's the best defenseman of the draft? Because I got to imagine Mitchikov's second best defenseman in the draft. We're in the conversation with you with Nemich and Yerechek and Korzynski, right? I would go Nemich one and then probably Wayne.

Okay. So yeah, so that would be the difference for me is I would have him behind Nemich, Yer Chikovsky and Mitchikov and then he'd be the next guy. Yeah. All right. Let's go to the next one here. Another one on a Montreal player, Tyler Anderson, who's a comparable for Michael Hage if he hits his ceiling? The name I thought of if things go really well for Michael would be Jordan Kairu. Now, I think people think Michael could be a center, not a wing. I think he's probably more wings. I think he's off. puck game will make it at an HL coach push him to the wing but i think if things go very well for him i think kairu is and kairu also had like some consistency questions in his draft year the you know that was like similar similarities in the profile and then but he was just so damn talented and the talent won out at the end of the day scott how about you ceiling comparable for hage i used kairu pre-draft i think it's as close to a pretty perfect i hate using comps but it's it's it's pretty close. Like they're they're very comparable players size profile style of play the skating

being as high end as it is for both. I actually think Kyru is probably a slightly better skater but Hage is Hage was one of the best skaters in his draft class as well. Yeah, I think that's that's what you're hoping for is that sort of 60 point 60 point second line top six guy that Kyru has become even with some of the faults that Kyru still has in the NHL. If he has some of the center in him, I kind of wonder about Martin Natchez is another one for Hage, although skating might even be better for Hage than it is for Natchez. Yeah, I would say he's a better skater than Martin. Yeah.

All right, on to the next one, Charlie Douglas. Do you think Yeroslav Ascarov starts the season on the Sharks' NHL roster, Corey? I know what Yarroslav Ascarov's answer to this is going to be. I hope he does. He is it. I want to see what two goalies are rolling out there. Scott, how about you? No, I would expect.

I don't think they make that trade if he's not. at least in their tandem. Like, I think him going to the HL to start the year would be a step back. All right. And then we'll wrap with this one from Callie Hughes. Corey, what do you value more in an undersized forward? Tremendous hockey sense or tremendous skating? So if you've got this 5-9 guy, do you demand that they're going to be really, really fast

or really, really smart, which would be your preference? I know you'd want both. I don't demand anything. I would say in general, hockey sense is the most important trait. for me when it comes to player evaluations. I also think it's the hardest one to project accurately. I think there are other things that are more obvious in that you have a less of an error rate projecting it to the highest levels.

But if you're confident in the hockey sense, great. And then if you think a guy has special hockey sense, that makes the world go around and has helped a lot of players who you think we're not going to make it, you know, end up making it, such as the late Johnny Goddrow. Scott, how about you? I think it's hockey sense.

I immediately started thinking about players who kind of fit into that mold. We talked about Frank Nazar in terms of the skating. I think at the other end of the spectrum, in terms of young players in the league, in terms of hockey sense, I think of Cole Perfetti, Zach Benson. I've always been more partial to the Cole Perfetti,

Zach Benson's of the world than the Frank Nazars. I would say most hockey people will tell you if a guy is significantly underside. It's not just one thing he needs. He needs all of the things. Yeah. Like if you're 5, 9, 510, And if you can't fly, if you don't compete, if you don't score, teams don't have a lot of time for those profiles, unless like a perfetti where the hockey sense is just like off the charts exceptional or like for Elaine Hudson, for example. I also think there's probably a little bit of this where teams will be more inclined to believe they can improve a guy's skating after drafting him, although going from OK to Tremendous is still a big ask than they would with hockey sense.

So I think they'd be a lot more confident they could work on skating. Yeah, but the right spot in the draft. Obviously, you start talking yourself into that. You're not convincing yourself. You're going to change a guy, the athleticism in the first round. Fair enough. All right, that's going to do it for us today. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series.

You can catch all of Scott and Corey's work on The Athletic. We'll talk to you soon.