The Athletic Hockey Show - Isles snag No. 1 pick in NHL Draft Lottery shocker | Instant Reaction

Episode Date: May 6, 2025

In a huge turn of events at the NHL Draft Lottery, the New York Islanders defied the odds and jumped up nine places to take the number one spot in this June’s draft. The Prospect Series crew discusses who the Isles might take first overall, how this impacts the rest of the lottery teams going forward, and the guys take a quick look at The Athletic’s staff mock now that the draft order has been established.Hosts: Max Bultman and Corey PronmanWith: Scott Wheeler and FloHockey’s Chris PetersExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside the athletic Scott Wheeler and Corey Pranman and Flow Hockey's Chris Peters for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Our live lottery reaction really is shocking turn of events here tonight in the NHL draft lottery. We get two huge moves up in the lottery. The New York Islanders are going to pick first. The Utah Hockey Club is going to pick fourth. The new top 10 in a huge shake-up. The Islanders at one, the sharks at two, Chicago at three, Utah at four, Nashville at five.

Number six will be Philadelphia, seven Boston, eight Seattle, nine Buffalo, 10, Anaheim and Pittsburgh falls all the way down to number 11. Corey, this is a huge, just wrench into everything for a lot of these teams in the high draft that are now going to pick two spots later than they plan to. Right. National moves from three to five. Philly goes from 4 to 6, Boston, 5 to 7, Seattle, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh, all move down two spots. And that's notable for me in that this is a draft where the top group in this draft, you know,

probably had a little bit tighter margin from player to player than maybe draft classes of the last year or two were, where you kind of had that defined top four or five players in 2020. And then 2024, obviously, it was celebrating a steep drop-offs to the next group. That was rather large. In this group, I think you saw, there was about, depending on who you talked to, scouts would say there's five, six, seven,

maybe eight premium prospects, mostly of the center of variety. You got a winger there in Porter-Martone, and then the defenseman in Matthew Schaefer. But I think most would agree, there's a drop-off after that grouping. So I think a lot of those teams were probably in position to get what they viewed

was a premium forward. prospect. And there's going to be quite a few teams now that are looking at likely their next group of players instead because two teams leapfrobed them due to the lottery results. Scott, if you're the New York Islanders here, I mean, they can do whatever they want, obviously. But you got a top D in Matthew Schaefer. That's a rare quantity. You got this excellent forward who was an exceptional status player at Michael Mesa. And you got the hometown kid in James Hagan's here. Is there any other player that you think should be in that conversation? talking about those three. I think entering the sort of draft process here for all of the teams

who are picking in that top three range, I think those are the sort of consensus players. In saying that, I think James Higgins is probably more at the fringes of that group and probably belongs closer to that Corey sort of alluded to that includes players like Caleb DainoyA, Anton Frundel, depending on who you talk to, Jake O'Brien, Porter Martone, obviously, being the unique winger in that mix. But the local factor in all of this does feel like it at least presents itself as a talking point. I don't know how long that talking point will last within the Scouts room of the New York

Islanders, but James Hagen's is a born and bred local talent. And there have been a few that have come out of the island over the years. Matt Coronado signed his big contract this week as a Long Island kid. There were the Brackos who were Long Island kids. But Hagen's is a true homegrown star, grew up an Islander's fan, grew up going to Islanders games. His family are all Islanders fans. It's a sort of deep-rooted thing. There are really two local rinks, and he grew up playing at both of them, skating at both of them.

All of his buddies are sort of local. So I think that will at least be a factor for the Islanders. But push comes to shove. You start to look at what they have there. It's a thin group, but it's a particular. thin group within their pool on defense. They've obviously acquired Callum Richie at the trade deadline is maybe not a premium prospect, but a high-end prospect in his own right.

They drafted with their first rounder a year ago, Cole Eiserman, and they have literally, quite frankly, almost nothing. Like if you look at just their D in terms of their prospect pool, it's one of the weaker, thinner groups of D prospects in the NHL. So I think that the natural tendency for them will likely to be to come back and circle back around on Matthew Schaefer and I think Matthew Schaefer feels at this early stage in terms of me thinking about the results tonight, Matthew Schaefer feels like the logical pick for me. Chris, what do you think? Well, I think that it actually, for one, we don't, they don't have a

general manager. So that that's one thing. We don't, it's hard to, it's hard to predict what their draft strategy is going to be. Obviously, I think anybody that comes in at this stage of the season is going to have to rely on the scouts and what they say. But what, to Scott's point, I don't think that the local angle should be completely overlooked in this discussion. There's a significant reason for that. Who is the last guy they picked number one overall? John Tavares. What happened?

He left. And that is something that still sticks in the craw of New York Islanders fans. And I think it's a team, the Islanders are not a destination organization. They are not, they might be in New York. They might be on Long Island. But they are not a place that players are going to want to stay all the time. And I think that that has to be part of the business discussion in addition to the hockey player discussion. And so it's not as easy as I think, you know, all of us would have James Hagan's lower on our board.

But because of this, it is interesting. I think there's a lot of scenarios that could be at play here. You know, it would be difficult to trade down maybe. But if somebody values Schaefer a ton and you're okay with slipping back a little bit, I do think that, that is something that you can at least discuss and consider because what if you can get two pieces out of that? What would it take? I think that Schaefer, the question is too, when we talk about how many years do we have a number one prospect where we have this smallest sample size on the thing? And so I don't think that the gap between Schaefer and even Hagen's is significant

where you can't just dismiss it out of hand that you take the best player available. I agree with Scott's point. They have a clear need of defense. They have a potential difference making defensemen here in Matthew Schaefer. But I do think that getting a player that you can have in your system that wants to be a New York Islander, not just there, everybody wants to be a number one pick. Not everybody wants to be a New York Islander. James Hagan Stutz. And I think that that's a discussion you have to have with your group regardless. And I, you know, is it, is it an emotional decision? Is it, is it risky? Absolutely. But I mean, let's, let's not forget, this is the guy we were talking about could be the number one pick coming into this season. If you took him number one,

you basically have to think he could be like Jack Hughes, right? In terms of the play style, the size. Yeah, I think to a certain extent, I think the best, I think more of the best case scenario is probably, you know, Will Smith. And the thing is, is like, yeah, you would have to think that, but I think if you're picking Matthew Schaefer, you have to think what is he? Yeah, and I think he's a better player. I'm just saying I could twist my head and think of a way where Hagan's could become someone like Hughes. I think when we talked about him as number one, back of the summer, we kind of said he's

somewhere in the coolie to Hugh spectrum. And if you kind of, you know, thought, well, you know, he played college hockey, he's a high level. I played well the world juniors, you know, dominant U18 world's performance. You can maybe talk yourself into that he's that kind of player. Maybe I don't think he is. I don't think that's what the league thinks, but I could see at least the people who are bullish on Hagen's.

I think that they would make that argument that he's at least close to that caliber of player. We're going to put out a scout survey tomorrow on Schaefer, and I think there's a mixture of recency bias and hindsight bias, but the scouts are good. I polled had him as a prospect at a higher level than both Rasmus Dahlia and Owen Power going into their drafts. So obviously, you know, this is an extremely well-thought-off prospect right now in the league. And Power is what I think of when Chris mentions the lack of data. Because during the COVID season, we didn't have sufficient data on a lot of those kids, power, baneers, even, you know, Kent Johnson, Luke Hughes, Mason McTavish.

and as time has gone by, we're not 100% sure what the right order of those players should have been in the 2021 draft. So I absolutely think it's a fair argument to question whether Schaefer is a no doubt about it and number one pick. I think there are reasonable debates to be had. But, you know, he didn't play a lot,

but he still got a decent chunk of games, particularly when, you know, only 17 OHL games, but between the Hoinka, the CHL and the TVP series, and the World Juniors, you know, it was closer to, you know, 25 to 30 games. And for the most part, it was at a really high level.

And it would take quite some guts to not to take that guy. Because he goes to Sad Jose, and he's going to be playing like 22 minutes a night next season. And I, he just looks just like a special player. Are we sure about that? Are we sure that he's immediately in the NHL next year after playing 30 games this season?

I know. He didn't play, but he's so freakishy athletic. Like, it would, I wouldn't rule it out, but I think he, I think if, uh, if Dalyne could make the step in, I think this guy's got a lot of the same traits. Now, there's all this, you know, the one is with the college stuff and whatnot that could change the variables. But I think, not a guarantee, but I think he's got a very good case to be in the NHL next season. I'd, I'd be pretty surprised if he's playing in the NHL at 18. The way that teams have treated defensemen over the last few years and just the lack of playing. If I'm him, I don't even want, I'm not even sure I want to be in the NHL next year. I want to be playing games and dominating and getting my feet back under me rather than coming into the league with six, eight, nine months off. The team that I think really will be pining for Schaefer and certainly hoping that the New York Islanders go a different direction is the San Jose Sharks.

And they're the team that has the big need in the pipeline for a top defender, Corey. when you see this result, do you feel like this is a situation where it's okay San Jose is going to get a great player and just be that much more loaded? Or should they try to be aggressive here? I mean, what do you see? Well, chances are they're still going to be bad next year. And so they could be in a mix for a Keaton Verhoff or whichever other top deep prospect might emerge by this point next year. But it's not ideal. I love Sam Dickinson.

And I think in a lot of organizations, Sam Dickinson would be the best young defenseman. I think he's actually got a legit chance to be number one offenseman. I think he lacks the hockey sense that Schaefer does, and it's why I wouldn't be as confident that he could reach that kind of pinnacle. But it wouldn't shock me if he became a number one defenseman. But, you know, they're going to get a really good forward. Michael Mesa, James Hagan, Porter Martone, Anton Frundel, whoever. It's going to be a great forward.

Maybe ideally, you know, they guess, you know, maybe you could see how Martone really fit well with that group, provide some size to that forward group to go with the high-end skill. If they were to go to Frundel or Mesa, now you're starting to wonder, will Smith move to the wing now permanently with one of those guys, probably being the second line center behind Sellebrini long term?

So I don't think the rebuild plans are tarnished here, but you still are looking at this team with how many fours they've drafted in the top two rounds the last few years and wondering where are the blue lighters going to come from and is there going to have to be a trade here at some point? Despite the fact that Maclin Celebrini and Will Smith and the four centers in that next group, despite the fact that they're all being listed and that they're all listed as centers, I think there are camps of people that would tell you that Michael Misa might become

a winger, that Anton Frundel might become a winger, that James Higgins might be better suited to be a winger, that Will Smith might be better suited to be a winger. So I don't think if you take one of those centers, now I think Caleb Dainwey, the consensus would say that Caleb Dainway is going to slot in as a center. So if you're taking him, it probably means that you're comfortable with moving Will Smith long term to the wing. But I think if you take any of those other kids that you could potentially sort of slip and slide and move those guys around and find out which of those three players fits better

on the wing and who works well with who and who becomes your second line center, I actually think it gives them a lot of flexibility. I don't think you're necessarily pigeonholing one of those kids into becoming a three C of the future. there's a future where any number of those kids could become wingers for you and could become top six wingers for you or potentially even play with Macklin Celebrini. Obviously, Will Smith and Macklin have already found chemistry together. And there were questions dating back to Will's draft year about whether he'd be a long-term center. So the interesting one there is De Noeer,

who feels like really a natural 2C for whoever takes him moving forward here and an impactful high-end 2C. So maybe that would be a natural sort of Will Smith to Will Smith to the wing, Philip Dianoyer plays down the middle behind Macklin. I think there are a lot of scenarios there, even if they don't get their best case scenario, which I think we would all agree would be Matthew Schaefer. There are a lot of sort of interesting ripples

and sort of layers there to the decision that they might have to make it to. We talk about the teams falling here, but whose situation are you most worried about based on the outcome of this draft lottery query? I think it's really those teams on the kind of the precipice of that top group. I think probably Seattle and Buffalo thought, you know,

whichever one of Jake O'Brien, James Higgins, Michael Misa, Porter Martone, Anton Frundel, whichever one of these guys doesn't go in that top seven, we're going to get them. And now you're looking at them saying, okay, they may all be gone and they may be gone right before we pick. And now you're talking about the next group. The real, you know, X-Varable is Roger McQueen.

I think a lot of people in the league think if their doctors give him the green light, all of a sudden he goes into that top group and he might go comfortably into that top group just based on how talented is. Six-five right shot center who can skate, has real skill, has some physicality.

It's a really intriguing player. If he's in the group, now the group gets one player longer and now these teams might be in position to get a premium prospect. If it isn't, then maybe you are faced with that decision about whether you're going to take that game, or do you go to the next group of players like a Brady Martin,

Braden Coots, Carter, Carter, Bear, you know, Kishon, Acheson, whoever else. So I think that's the kind of the friction points. And we saw that kind of when we did our staff mock right after the conclusion of the lottery. I think Martin's a wild card to potentially go in that group as well and move someone down. Yeah, I mean, when we did our mock, he went nine. I mean, his profile is really appealing. And I think a lot of people are going to talk themselves into him quite,

easily, especially how well he showed in from a lot of decision makers this past week in Dallas. The one that really jumped out to me when we did our staff mock, Corey, was Victor Eklund fall into 13. And we do see this sometimes with the small winger. But I do feel like there's a difference in how Victor Eklund plays the game and say like a Jonathan Lecker of Mackey. I think there's a little more motor, a little more compete to him. Is it just the small winger factor, you think?

And how realistic is that on draft day? Well, you know, the comp I used for Eklund in my last piece was Travis Kinn. Enochney and he had a tremendous fall on draft day. Now, he didn't have a great season. Eklund's had a great season. Kneckney had a disappointing draft season, but the play styles and the tool kits were very similar. And just,

I think that I, you know, would take Eklin higher. I think he's a really good player, who even though he's a small winger, I think his compete's just so good. And he is, you know,

really talented offensively that I think he can be, he can provide a lot of value, even as a 510, 511 wing. But I get it. when I have my conversations with people in the league about him, I sense a lot of hesitancy

to use a premium asset on a small wing. Wings in general go before center and offense men. And the smallish wings definitely go much later than the people expect sometimes. You mentioned like Romaki. Remember when Yolkin Kamel went a lot lower than people expected, for example.

That just tends to be how things tend to go in the draft. And this wouldn't surprise be, you know, 13, 14, 15, I think it's low from what I have the player rated. But you saw it with just how our writers approach this. They know, they're approaching from how they think their teams are trying to build and where the needs are and almost always going into the draft. If you're picking at the bottom of the draft, your needs are sender and defensemen.

It's pretty rare to be going into a top 10 pick, top 12 pick in the NHL draft and thinking, you know, the one thing this organization really needs is a 510 winger. Like that's the thing that's going to put us over the top. So I understand where our writers were coming from. Well, along those lines, Chris, I mean, one of the interesting questions around this is going to be around Chicago and who they can find as a running mate for Connor Bedard. And ideally, it is someone with some size, right? I mean, they have surrounded Bedard with some good young players, some fast young players, not really any big young players. Yeah, that's true.

It's interesting to see kind of where, you know, where they're at three. They picked one, two years ago, two last year, and now they're in three. So theoretically, they're going to be able to kind of take whoever the best available is in that range. The question is, who is that going to be? And the good news is for them, you know, you look at, you know, Mises bigger than Bedard, but he's not huge. You know, like, Frundel is thick, you know, like different guys, but he's not necessarily huge. You know, a lot of people might say Porter Martone is the guy there with the six foot three frame. And, you know, almost, you know, there's a lot of different ways that can do.

go. I really don't know which way Chicago's going to go with this one because I think that, you know, do they have- Would Martone be like the complete opposite of the player style they've drafted in the last few years? And that's why I did not, I would not put him there because I think that the, you know, just they, they are a pacey, they want to be a pacey team. He's not a very pacey player, you know, like I think that he's got good enough hockey sense, but it's still, it's not, you know, does the compete match up? And that's where guys like Frundel come in. And that's why I think that there's going to be a possibility that he is, you know, in the mix for them at number three. Unfortunately for Anton Frundell, he did not have a good showing at the Under 18 World Championship where Kyle Davidson was at.

You know, a lot of the general managers in the top five, top seven range were at that tournament. And that's going to be their last impression of the player. So that could potentially affect it. But I think there are options, you know, I think Danae is another guy that is in kind of their style. but is that, you know, how many of those guys are you necessarily going to get? I think he's got more skill and more scoring ability than some of the guys like an Oliver more that they have in their system. You know, they love Frank Nazar.

I think that, you know, but is he necessarily going to be your up that high in the lineup? Is he better suited maybe in the third line? He's playing top six minutes at the end of the season. You know, so there are so many different options there. But yeah, as Corey mentioned, like Martone, I think is the guy, well, we can finally get bigger up front. but is he is he really a fit for the way that they're going um and you know that's a team without a head coach too you know so you're you're trying to figure out what style are they even going to be playing in the next four or five years

um that's a that's a that's a real conversation to be had but you know i think based on where we're at you know i think frondell misa if he falls um you know dana y a guys like that maybe maybe a jake o'brien outside chance you know like i think those are those are kind of things but again He just feels like a natural fit for what they're trying to do there because he does. It's just, is he going to, you know, will he be there? And that's going to be the question. One last thing in the top five here is Scott that, you know, I had to pick for Utah and our staff mock draft. And I looked up their system.

I came in with kind of a plan at number 14. They rocket up the board. And all the sudden you're dealing with a totally new pool of players for them. I went with Caleb Denoia because I think he'd be a great compliment to Logan Cooley, stylistically that the big two-way center to go with your sizzle. but what did you think of that pick? How would you have gone for Utah number four? I think Caleb makes a lot of sense there.

They've clearly prioritized well-rounded two-way types. We saw them just a year ago, take Cole Baudway, who sort of fit that profile, but much lower in a projected NHL lineup than where you're going to slot Caleb Dainway. The one wild card, and Corey kind of touched on it and hid on it off the top a little bit, but I wonder about the big kid from Brandon.

Like, I just, I just won. about them specifically there as well. Now, four would be early. Four would be where he would, where McQueen would go had he been healthy, had he been playing all year. That was kind of the range that people were talking about Roger McQueen in. But he fits the type that they've, they've gone after before. They took, this is the team that took Connor Geeky, that took Danil boot, that took Maverick-Lamorah, that took Dimitrissev. They've clearly tried to build a very big, young team.

McQueen fits that. He gives them a center iceman as well. Obviously, I mean, to say what you will about Tijiginla, Tijiginla was listed as a center in name only by NHL Central Scouting. I think everybody projects, just about everybody projects that Tijingin will be a winger at the next level. So who is, if Caleb, or if Cole, Bauduang is your 3C of the future, a bottom six center of the future, and Logan Cooley is your one C, who's that second guy in between? the size piece. Theoretically, Barrett Hayton. Yeah.

I'm not convinced that Barrett Hayton is the two C on a, on a cup contending team. I would, I would probably agree with that. But, yeah, no, McQueen fits. The size piece, the types of players they've drafted in the past. I think Danway fits for a lot of the same reasons as a potential two C of the future behind Logan Cooley as well. But McQueen's, McQueen feels like that might be the earliest that he might go. Now, he would need the medicals to look pretty pristine or close to if you're going to take him forth overall.

Yeah, that's the key. I think every single thing we say about Roger McQueen is going to be with the caveat that let's see what the medicals say once he gets through the combine process. What is the information that the teams receive? But I really do think that Utah is teams like Utah in general, where they are closer to competitiveness. have now rocketed up to this chart. They have a little bit more wiggle room to take that risk, I feel like, which is why I think that they're kind of the key holder for the rest of the first round. They could potentially reach on a Roger McQueen, take that risk.

He does very much fit what they're going for. I think that they want to get bigger. They love that they have Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley. They don't love that those guys are sub six foot players. So they want to make sure that they're surrounded by more of these players. You add some girth to this lineup, and it does potentially help you. So I do think that Utah in particular is going to be one of those teams that can really upset the apple cart in terms of the order of the consensus. And really, you know, as we were all at the under 18 worlds, and I feel like, yes, there's probably seven or eight players that everybody has in kind of a similar order in some way.

But I don't feel that that there's true consensus. You know, I don't think that there's really that big of a gap between players. And then teams like Utah can really just pick what they like best, not necessarily the best player available. You know, best player available is always relative to you, to what you think is the best players. So I don't necessarily know if that'll be the consensus. I'm fascinated by that.

You know, I think there's other options potentially available to them. Danae, I think, is a very fair pick in terms of where they're looking and how they kind of draft. But I think if, you know, if they feel like they can roll the dice a little bit on this one and the medicals are good enough, you know, McQueen very well could be that guy for them. Whatever happens with McQueen at the combine, we should just all pledge not to freak out if he does like what or two of the workouts. Because I remember that this time last year, there was a whole big deal about how Kaden Lindstrom did the pull-ups at the combine. Yeah, and then his back died again. And yeah, and so hopefully hopefully he comes back.

I mean, there's talk that he might come back for the run that medicine hats on right now. He also went fourth overall. Yes, he did. Fourth overall. And that's what we're talking about. Utah. What are you going to do? What are you going to do?

And yeah, I think it'll be interesting to see kind of how that all plays out. But again, the vague caveat is, let's see what those medicals look like. I'd be curious to go around the horn here. Who is a better prospect at the same age? Yeah. Yeah. I agree. Yeah.

I've asked that question in the legal law. I don't get a whole lot of Lindstrom. That being said, it's easy to detract the guy who hasn't played hockey in two years.

Yeah, yeah. That's very true. I almost, it's been a long time since anybody's seen him play. Well, in a draft that at one point was thought to lack

a little intrigue. I think the lottery has given us plenty to chew on. We're going to have a lot more for you as this cycle progresses. But tonight that's going to do it

for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the FFedockkeke Show Prospect Series. You can, of course, Catch more of Chris over at Flow Hockey and on his podcast called up. And you're going to have a lot more from Scott and Corey on the athletic.

Wednesday boys have you covered on the next episode of the athletic hockey show. We'll talk to you soon.