The Athletic Hockey Show - Kempe’s Kings deal proves NHL free agency is dead

Episode Date: November 17, 2025

With the Los Angeles Kings making a big splash over the weekend by signing right wing Adrian Kempe to an eight-year, $85 million contract extension, the guys are joined by The Athletic’s Eric Stephens to talk about it, the state of the Pacific Division, and how star players are apparently just not going to make it to free agency anymore. Plus, along with The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman, the guys discuss the New Jersey Devils losing Jack Hughes for eight weeks following finger surgery to repair a “non-hockey” injury he sustained last Friday at a team dinner, as well as which teams should be worried about their seasons halfway through November.Hosts: Max Bultman and Mark LazerusWith: Eric Stephens and Shayna GoldmanExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris FlanneryWatch full episodes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowJoin our Discord Server: https://discord.gg/VTm9VjkFSubscribe to The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show. Hey, everybody, Max Bolbin here alongside Mark Lazarus for another episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. And we are joined today by Eric Stevens, who frankly has the news of the day here, Adrian Kempi, signing the eight-year $85 million extension with the Kings, Eric. A huge move for L.A. Yeah, you know, it's funny how teams tend to do this on their off day, their quote-and-called off day in between games. and it tends to be the time when they get their business done. But yeah, no, this is, you're right, Max. This is big for them.

And he's a guy that they had to sign. You know, to be frank, they're obviously a competitive club. They're a win now club, even though they haven't won enough. But that's how they're built. And frankly, they don't have, say, you know, the prospects in their system. They don't have someone that they can just readily, look at and say, okay, well, we can maybe part with him because this guy, you know, prospect X is our future. He's our future top line right wing or whatsoever. No, Adrian Pakepe is

their guy right now. He's their best player. And I think actually for what wound up to be the amount, the $85 million over eight years, what the number came in at, I think it's actually something that is going to be fairly agreeable for both sides. It's probably a little bit more than what the LA imagined initially. But we see what the salary cap is going. And we see what, you know, high level, elite level, or top level, at least right wings get. And so to at least get them underneath 11 and under what they're paying for Drew Doughty,

I think they managed to do okay. Yeah, it's interesting. Like if Adrian Kempi had made it to the summer, he would have been the bell of the ball and he would have gotten a lot more than $10.6 million a year. That said, he might not even be a $10.6 million winner. He's a great player. Don't get me wrong. He's a game-changing player. But he's on pace for like 25 goals this year.

He's not exactly tearing up. I've got a 40-gole season a few years ago. He's a very, very good, you know, 80-point player, I would say, on average in a league that's full of 100-point guys now. So is this an overpay? Is this an underpay? Or like you said, is this like right on target? You know, last, he's a fascinating case because. of some of those things that you allude to,

because you're right. If you compare him to, say, other quote-unquote top winger's, career highs of 41 goals, 73 points, in some ways they sort of don't measure up to who we think are the top forwards in the league, the top winger, top scores in the league. I think what that, though, illustrates is, a, like I said,

what the going rate is, is for a top line right wing, a top line score, A, and then B, his meaning to the Kings. He's their best player. He is massively important for them. And so I think that also really increased his value. It would be different, you know, say if he had lesser numbers or say if he was maybe the second or third best player on the King's team. No, he's the best guy right now. And they don't have, say, no one necessarily really waiting in the wings.

You know, it's right. Quinn Byfield, maybe, but he's the center, you know, and he's probably going to be their first-line center. He's sort of a different animal. So, yeah, I think it's a combination of the two. I think, you know, the fact that he's coming up for, he came up for his deal right now at this very time with the cap number jumping as it is was perfect for him.

But you're right. It's a fascinating thing. Yeah, in terms of him, he's not necessarily what you think of as a 10 near 11 million type guy. But maybe for the Kings, he is that. Dom's model has him at $9.3 million market values last. So that's to your second point. But really, I think the key is in the first thing you said. If he makes it to market, he's the bell of the ball.

That gives him all the leverage because there really is no one else as good as Adrian Kempe projected to be available on the market. And that to me gave the king's two choices. Are you going to trade him and rebuild when Anzikopatar retires? Or are you going to sign him and stay competitive? And from that lens, I don't think it was much of a choice at all. I think they had to do this because there's just no way to replace him. I mean, that's kind of the other side to this angle as is like,

what is the free agent class going to look like next summer? What is the free agent class going to look like for the next four summers? Oh, my God. I remember just a couple of years ago, we were talking about the 2026, you know, you and I cover teams that are in these long rebuilds, Detroit and Chicago, and we're like, oh, 2026 this summer, that's when you'll be able to exped. That's when you'll be able to get your Marian Hosa. That's when you'll be able to get your supercharged free agent.

And, you know, Jack Eichel, Carilla Caprizoff, Connor, McDavid, Kyle Connor, Marty Natchez, Adrian Kempe. Now it's what, Alex Tuck and aging Artemi Panarin, Rasmus Anderson? Like, how are you supposed to get better in this league? Now, this is the irony of, like, for years and years and years, so many teams lost their best players. because of a flat salary cap for the last, you know, even not even flat before COVID. Year after year, contenders would have to shed salaries.

Now everyone gets to keep their players. That's great. But now if you're not already great, you're screwed. Unless you're going to be able to develop completely from within. Every year now, we're going to find a weak free agent market. Guys aren't going to make it to free agency. Your Mitch Marners are going to be the exceptions, not the rules now. Yeah, I think about the teams that are coming out of, you know, that their rebuilds right now are starting to or wanting to, right?

Chicago would be one of them. Eric, you cover another one in San Jose, right? Like the sharks have drafted really well. I'm sure they were hoping to have a nice free agent prize at the end of all this too. And it just may not be available for them. They may have to do this almost entirely internally or via trade. Yeah, you know what? It's a great point because I think there were some quiet rumblings. He even dating back to when Leon Dreisdel was, you know, at least coming up for his deal,

are in line and there were the the possible connections well because hostile plotner is a you know german owner and you know maybe they could kind of sort of bring building up a contingent there and they'd have all this money available and no you're right i mean yeah what what good is having you know a ton of money if there's not going to be anybody out there that uh you know in terms of at least a game-changing type of free asian i guess you know in their case you know they'll just throw they'll just throw a 15 million at Macklin's celebrating and make sure he's locked up until the end of time. But I'm sure they want to support him and surround him with good veterans and right as they're coming out. So it's a tricky situation to be in.

This is going to wind up, I think, benefiting the middle class of the NHL, which was almost dying, right? Because some of these teams have to get to the cap floor. Like as Chicago again, next year, like these guys, Bader's next contract won't be kicking. Well, it'll be kicking in next year. But a lot of these guys aren't going to be a little after that. And when they start moving some of their older veterans that have been these stop gaps, They're going to have to throw money at somebody just to get to the cap floor, these non-cap teams. And you're going to see a lot of guys getting $8 million that you thought were $5 million players because that money has to go somewhere.

That's great. I got no problem with that. Power to the players. But it's not as easy as you used to be able to say, we're going to go out and get our big free agent in 2029. Yeah, you're probably not. That's just not how it's going to work anymore. Yeah. What are your second line wingers making right now?

you're right. Your second line wingers are going to be seven, eight, maybe a little bit north of that now. And so your third liners are going to wind up making about five or so. And maybe people will be good with that, you know, with the big bump in the cap, but that's going to be the reality,

as you alluded to. And there are teams, and the Red Wings might be one of them, that got some really good deals done right before this. And I'm sure that a year ago they were thinking, oh, Lucas Raymond at 8 million, more at sighter at 8.5, These are going to age amazing.

We're going to have so much space to push in for a guy. Now it's like, no, you're just kind of efficient for the sake of being efficient. There's really no one out there. I mean, you got room to extend your own players. And that's the win is you can keep everybody. But there's really not that bell of the ball. Drafting is becoming a lot more important than general managing, as it were. Like your scouting team is almost more important than your roster building at this point.

Yeah, the amateur scouting is defining, I think, for franchises. Let's zoom out here to talk about the Pacific as a whole, Eric, because earlier this week, I mean, there was a point a few days ago where it was on top L.A. Anaheim San Jose. I was petitioning to rename it, the Stevens division. I haven't heard back yet from the NHL on that one, but we'll see how that shakes out. But still the Kings and the Ducks on top there. I don't think people would have been floored to see the Kings there. The Ducks, obviously, have been one of the better stories of the year as well.

But talk to us about, like, how the Kings have done this, because they're an interesting team. They're not like going along playing fire wagon hockey here. no no and that's their not their style either and you know what i i'm i'm with you max in in terms of like for the over the first few weeks as they you know kind of bumble about here they kind of go off to a slow start they they managed to get into overtimes and pick up points here and there but i didn't know really what their identity was i you know i whereas before they were clearly one where they were defense focused, you know,

heavy. And they still are. And they've gotten back to that. I think recently during this surge, especially during the road, you're seeing more kings like hockey. I mean, Saturday was the picture perfect example,

a 1-0 win in Ottawa where there was no time or space for anybody. I mean, that was not a Picasso that we saw there being played. But that was actually more like what the kings want to win. That's how they want to win. That's,

you know, that's how they are. It's almost part of their ethos to check first, check second, check third, and then create. But no, they're getting some solid goaltending.

Garcy Kemper has been steady. I mean, I think he's proven over the past year plus now that he's going to be in the team Canada goaltending mix. So, you know, there is that, you know,

it's just the team. It's a solid team that, you know, They're not going to get in the track meets with others. They want to keep the scores down and be opportunistic when they happen. Other than Kempai that we've talked about and the retiring Kopitar and Drew Doughty, it's just kind of a group of almost the anonymous guys, but just kind of a group of hardworking guys that play responsible hockey.

And it's not exciting, but they're able to, they've been able to, scratch out wins, particularly on the road, which is kind of a total flip-flot from last year, actually. We're at the point of the year where I actually start paying attention to the numbers, right? I start believing the numbers, right? I'm looking for trends. And the kings are baffling the weeks. They're the usual kings, right?

They're top five in goals against per 60. They're top five in attempts against per 60. They're top five in scoring chances against per 60. But they're in the bottom five in high danger chances against per 60. That's a really strange stat. Is there something? Did that all happen in one game? How do you explain that stat?

Because I don't understand how the math even works on a stat like that. Yeah, you know what? Numbers-wise, I couldn't explain it as well. The way I see it, the way I explain it is, I think it's just indicative of the changes that they made, that they had to make kind of in the off-season. You know, they had to replace Ladislav Gavikov. And I think some of that reflects that in terms of those high-danger-changed,

against because look, he was terrific for them. He was their best defenseman last year. And he obviously parlayed that into a big time deal with the New York Rangers. But in doing that and the holes that were created and they filled with Brian Dumlin and Cody Cici, like, I'm not going to sit here and say that, you know, they replace what Lazov, Gavacov, and Jordan Spence gave them on the back end. They're kind of different types of players. And those two that I mentioned,

they struggled that at the very beginning of fact they had them as a pair. They were really bad in the first few games. They split them up, had one plan with Dowley, they had the other plan with Mikey Anderson. Now they've kind of reunited them because I think it took them,

you know, those veterans some time to kind of get used to the system, kind of get used to the way the Kings did things. And so they've been better of late. But, you know, I think a lot of that, particularly was early on over this last stretch and particularly over this road trip that they've had. They've cut a lot of that down. Our friends at BetMGM have the Kings with the third best odds to win the Pacific Division

at plus 475. It's behind Vegas plus 115. Oilers plus 260. Eric, I don't know how much you dabble in odds or anything like that, but does that sound about right to you? Too high? Too low? I would say that's a little too high. Yeah. I'm still not sold on them, you know, per se. I think there's still a lot of the element of the kings are who they are, you know, to them. And I still see, I still see Edmonton getting their stuff together, even with all the issues that they have. And Vegas, you know, yeah, they're down in the standings a little bit right now, but I think that's more of a function.

of they just haven't played as many games as, you know, either L.A. or Anaheim or those that are above them. So eventually the cream, I think, is going to rise to the top. And, you know, and I think L.A. will kind of sell into the spot that I've seen them and that they've been in, which is they'll probably go into either play for third in the Pacific or, you know, or a wild card spot. All right. I need to ask you about Anaheim. You're the Ducks guy. You hire Joel Quendley, you expect this team become a possession monster. And they're certainly scoring a lot more than they were last year. But they're actually kind of terrible defensively.

They're giving up more scoring chances per hour in league than last year. And they were the worst team in the league at that last year. How sustainable is what they're doing? Like they have so much talent, so much excitement and so much skill and speed. Like, it's fun to watch them. They've got Lucas Dostal, who's playing very well. That 903 save percentage might not look that good, but it's great behind that defense because,

this goal saved above expected is terrific. It's like 11. How sustainable is what Anaheim is doing? Because all the underlying numbers say the bottom is going to fall out of this. But when you watch them, you're like, no, this is legit. These guys are for real. Yeah, you know, Laz, there's two ways I see to look at the ducks right now. You know, and it's almost like they've got one part of their game together,

which is the offensive side of it. These young guys all kind of coming together all at once here and sort of exploding. you know, with Leo Carlson and Cutter Gaultier kind of at the top of that. So you have that one part of that side of them that's kind of come together here. And then you have that other start, the other side that still, I think, is in construction here,

which is that defensive element of it. I know that they're, you know, they're still adjusting to, you know, Joel's, you know, more zone defensive system where they've been playing strictly man to man over the last few years, which I don't think was geared, quite frankly,

to what the personnel that they had on the back end. So I think there's a little bit of that going on. Some of it's going to be mindset. I mean, you know, last you've seen it. I mean, they've been terrible defensively for years. Okay, this is, I mean, even before last year, I mean, they had some of the worst defensive metrics of the entire salary cap era.

You know, it was almost embarrassing how many, you know, great A chances they would give up per period, much less per game. So it's incrementally, I think it's incrementally gotten better in some ways. And I think there's room to grow. And so, yeah, the sustainable part, you can say, no, it's not sustainable. You can't win six to five track meets every night. And there's a part of them that has been willing to engage in that. And I think Joel, you know, I think he knows this. He even said earlier to me, you know, earlier this year that they're willing to trade scoring chances.

It's, you know, it's where those scoring chances are located, you know, that he's more concerned with. But I think that there is a path for them to get better, though. And so I think that that's where it can be sustainable. If you watch them from night to night, though, they're competing with everyone. And yes, they're not going to score four, five, six goals every single night. But the talent that they have on that team, you know, the way that has been put together, the young guys that are exploding right now, some of the veterans that have been renewed. I mean, Chris Pryder and even Jacob Trua, they've played very well on the outset.

And they play beyond what I think most people have expected right out of the gate. So that's helped them, certainly. But yeah, if they want to, though, be serious. If they, you know, this is a year where I think they're sort of playing with House Money right now, right this moment. You know, they were looking to be in that playoff mix. So right now, they're ahead of schedule. But I think if they, you know, they want to be serious, if they're going to think that they, you know, they can seriously do something this year, yeah, they've obviously got to get better on that defensive side of. the puck and at least, you know, not make it to where Lucas Sassal is having to deal with

having to make Tyndell saves every other shift. One last thing I wanted to get you on with the Ducks, Eric. We've talked about Leo Carlson on the show. He's having a fantastic year, breakout one of the best stories in the league so far. A couple other young guys, though, for the Ducks who have really stood out and maybe even surpassed, like where certainly I think surpassed where we thought they would both be Cutter-Gotier, who's got the 12 goals and 21 points in his first 18 games, and 19-year-old Beckett Seneca, looking, maybe on occasion, but a lot of the time not looking 19.

He's been really productive, six goals, six assists in 18 games. More impressed by Gautier at age, I think he's 22 now, or Seneca at 19? Good question. I'm more impressed with Seneca, if you frame it that way. Because I didn't see him, I saw him maybe contending for a spot on the roster. I saw him getting his nine games. And then, okay, we're going to decide, you know, What are we going to do with him?

Are we going to keep them around? Are we going to keep them up to the world juniors, et cetera, whatsoever? I did not see him grabbing a top six spot and producing the way he has right now. And to your point, Max, you're right. There are times and parents where he definitely looks like a 19-year-old player playing his first few games in the NHL, you know, whether it's defensively, maybe taking some ill-advised penalties. You know, you can see where that's popped up, but you can also see the skill that he has. He kind of reminds me, start to remind me of a young Corey Perry Perry in the sense that he's, he's kind of long and lanky.

He has no fear in going to the net. And, you know, I don't know if he has necessarily that, you know, that, you know, that want and will to just be a nuisance to every. single goaltender that's out there. But he's not shy about going to that and mixing it up and maybe, you know, maybe, you know, taking a little bit of punishment as well in order to, you know, kind of announce his presence there around the crease. He's got great hands. He's got a great shot.

And yeah, no, there's a lot of young Corey Perry Perry that I see in him. And I said Goethe was 22. He's 21. So I guess he's two years older than Seneca. They'll both turn one more year older in January. But yeah, I mean, when the ducks were here, and frankly when I was in Anaheim earlier this month, number of times I checked my sheet to just go,

who's 45? It was enough to tell me that, oh, this kid's like making an impact on the game. So really impressive stuff from Beckett Seneca, one of many ducks doing great things to begin this season. Let's take a quick break right there. We're going to be right back with Shana Goldman to talk Jack Hughes, The Devils, and more.

All right, we are back and we are joined now by Shana Goldman. And Shana, let's get into this first, because last week on the show, Las posed a question as to which, Metro team you felt the most confident in. And I think, Laz, your resounding answer was the Devils. But obviously, that is a very different outlook now that we've got a injury to Jack Hughes, a freak accident that is, it's going to sideline him for potentially six to eight weeks here. And so I want to know from your perspective, we'll get to Laz in a second. But, Shana, like, what does this do

to the Devils? And how do they survive a loss to, I mean, it's not the first time Jack Hughes has been out, but it's, it's the most important player on the Devils. Yeah, I had some concerns before this injury because you look at the devil's once Brett Pesci got hurt and their defensive game started getting a little sketchy there and it felt like the goaltending hasn't always been perfect this year. It's been some ups and downs. And I think Alan helped pick up the pace when Markstrom was hurt. And I think he played better for a minute there too. But that was like the first strike for me. And then you see Nico Hesier, who I thought had an excellent start like by late October start struggling.

So then it was like, oh, like there are some issues below the surface. You have to work out. Now you're down Jack Hughes and it's just devastating because it's not like he sure is playing at this like unbelievable level like he was most of last year that you could be like, okay, it's fine because you can split him in Brad up and you have a really good top six. And look, Dawson Mercer's playing great. You could try shifting him back to center. He's played in Jack Hughes's place before.

I just feel like there's too many things going wrong that now you're losing your best player that it just, it feels like this is your make or break moment. That's what I was going to ask. Is Dawson Mercer a 1C kind of player? Can he step into that role even for just a month or two and really kind of take on that mantle? That's 22 minutes night. That's, you know, tons of power play time.

That's your driving offensive force. Dawson Mercer might be the second best offensive player on this team, but is he capable of taking on what Hughes takes on every single night? I'm going to give, Just for Brat, the second best hat, you know, without Jack Hughes. I feel like he's so underrated. But I would say Mercer can be your 2C, but now you're 1C, but it's going to be really interesting because, like, you go back to his rookie season.

And it's funny, this was like my first devil story when I was like covering the devils for a minute there was about Dawson Mercer and how well he stepped up in Jack Hughes's place. And like he legitimately did. And I think he did all the little things right. He was doing the big things right. He was scoring goals. He was driving play. He was doing everything they needed him more. And then they've had him shift back to that role, you know, this season afterwards and it just didn't work.

and then you look at last year, not only is he on the third line, but he can't even shake it as the 3C for really the last two seasons. So he's finally back on track, but he's back on track now as a winger in the top six, which is where he belongs. So now you're asking him to not just shift back to center, but oh, replace the MVP of this team. Like, it's a huge ask. I think the fact that he's coming into it confident is a good thing.

The fact that he has, you know, a past of doing it, another good thing. But you're going to need someone really good on his wing. Like I really wonder if they're going to staple brat to his wing. which they did, if I remember correctly, the first time around when he was a rookie, and see if they can rekindle some of that magic and kind of carry that line. I find that the teams that succeed when their star player goes out, like it's usually not because someone comes in and replaces that guy. Like if Dawson Mercer is coming up in the lineup and trying to do what Jack Hughes does,

they're going to lose a lot of games that way. But if Dawson Mercer comes up and plays a Dawson Mercer kind of game, that I think is how you survive this, right? Like your identity of a team necessarily has to change when you lose a player as good as Jack Hughes, doesn't it? And this makes your team better when that happens too, right? If guys take on that role in the short term, it makes your team better in the long term. And they'll make this team better equipped for the playoffs if and when they get there.

And you look, the good thing for the devils here is they have the advantage of this great start they've had. They have a big cushion. So many of their so-called competitors in the Eastern Conference are off to these lousy starts. So you don't have to worry about really being lapped by the field here. Like they can muddle through these next six to eight weeks. And when Hughes comes back, the devil should still be in the thick of it. they're good enough that they should be able to get by, and they have enough of a cushion that they should be able to withstand this, even if it takes, even if it is a big body blow.

Yeah. Like, if you can get the whole team clicking now, right? And then Jack Hughes comes, like, it all falls into place. But, like, Max, your point about, like, Dawson Mercer can't be Jack Hughes is so spot on because they have totally different games, right? Like, a big reason the Devils did not trade Dawson Mercer when I felt like he was everyone's trade trip, like, oh, it's a waste of his talents if he's on the wing and he shouldn't be 3C because he's so much better than that.

And all of that was true at the beginning of his career. but it's because he brings something different to the lineup than Nico and Jack and Brat too. Like you need someone like Dawson Mercer has that dog and him. He's everything those guys aren't. So he has to do his best right now and that'll definitely help. But I won't be surprised if they don't look to the trade market. Like if I'm them, I'm looking for someone that could come in and maybe be the 3C

when, you know, Jack Hughes is healthy and Mercer's back on the wing. Ideally, like that I think could be the move right now just to like strengthen everything and give yourself a better depth approach because their bottom six isn't perfect still. And I think Cody Glass has been good when he's healthy, but you always have that like when he's healthy tag there too. Yeah, you're not making the Nazim Kadri push here if you're the New Jersey Devils. Yeah, yeah, right. All right.

So that's the devil's side of this. The other side of this conversation, I think, is about Jack Hughes. And I think, you know, obviously this one sounds like it's a, it's obviously a non-hockey. It's a freak accident. But this is a player now who's missed or who's played 62 or fewer games in five of his first six seasons. it sounds like this will be six and seven now if my math is correct on how many games are in eight weeks. Is there any concern here about this kind of trend for Jack Hughes, Shana?

Okay. So when we did player tears this year, we originally had Jack Hughes as, if I remember, I won C. And we were asking everybody, do you think he's injury prone? And is that why you'd move him down? And they were like, I would not put that tag on him yet, but I'm still moving him to 2A. Like, I think he needs to, you know, like get up there a little bit better. and I get the argument, but it's like when he has a shoulder issue, I think if that becomes a reoccurring theme, and I know he has had multiple shoulder issues now, but if that's the

reoccurring theme moving forward, I think you could put that injury prone tag on him. This one, it's a freak accident. It's just like really bad luck. I feel like guys like Stamco's in the past, I've gotten that injury prone tag too when it was just like multiple freak things that just have, it's not your fault that these things happen. It's not like, okay, you have a groin issue in every couple weeks. It's the same thing. Someone like, Thatcher Demco deserves that tag.

But I don't think Jack Hughes is there yet because of this situation. I think if his shoulders don't hold up or his game slows down at all and it didn't, obviously, in the first month of action because of that, then you can. Yeah, I think typically a quote unquote injury prone guy is a guy who gets soft tissue injuries. I think of like a Peter Morazic who every year would have a groin injury every year. Then you start questioning preparation. You start questioning his training. You start questioning just his body in general. When it's a different kind of injury and it's breaks or it's freak accidents like this, I mean, this is, this is, this is, this is, this is, this is, this is.

I'm almost amazed this doesn't happen more often. I don't want to make light at all of what happened to Jack Hughes, but we see, you know, these NHL contracts will have like, you're not allowed to go skiing during the season. Yeah. And all these clauses to protect, you can't go water skiing, you can't do this,

you can't do that. And guys just get hurt. Brian Leach slipped on the ice outside of his apartment. Corey Crawford fell down the stairs at a concert. Like, we all fall down and get hurt. I'm a clutz. I get happens to me all the time. It's almost amazing that this doesn't happen more often

where serious injuries happen away from the rink. just by being a human. We're soft and squishy and very vulnerable, aren't we? We sure are. And frankly, I don't even think that guys like Marazah who have the persistent soft, I don't even think it's their fault. I don't think that you can train out of that necessarily, especially once you get to a certain age.

But I do think it enters my mind when I think about, you know, the bankable, the best players in the league. Like last, when we were having that segment last week, you kind of threw out there like Jack Hughes, fringe top five player. That to me would be one of the things that keeps them out of it is to be a top five player for me. I need you playing maybe it's not 82 games a year, but I need to know I'm getting 70, 75. It's just hard to be in that tier, I think, without that. Yeah, he's got the talent and the skill and the watchability of a top five player, but he has not been able to have that complete,

like, 120 point season because he's always missing time. You're absolutely right. When you get to the top of the league, and this was something we were like debating every single player in that top 10 for tier one, right? It's like when you get to one C, it was players with nitpicks. But that's Poshanak and Kaprizov nitpicks. Like this is now your next level. But when you get to the top of the league, that's what you have to do. You want to talk about the best centers in the world. Like, you have to go through every single detail of their game and be like, okay, they're skating is 1% less than the other guy.

And you know what? This guy takes more penalties in these big moments than that. It's going to add up in the grand scheme of things you don't care. Why would you give a shit if beyond Jerry Saddle takes a couple extra penalties? He's one of the best players in the world. But when you're going to be comparing him today to Nathan McKinnon, you're going to be like going through those like nooks and cranes. You have to do it.

So yes, this is something that's going to hold him out of that very top of the league. And it's just, it's out of his control. But like, sorry, it's a hard league for a reason. There's a reason like, Cal McCar didn't win the Norris a couple years ago when he missed 20 games. He was the best defenseman in his minutes. But when you're going head to head with literally the best players in the world, like you have to make some distinction somewhere.

The best ability is availability, right? It's a cliche, but it's true. If you're not there, you're not the best player in the world. That's right. It's a cliche for a reason. That being said, I think we're all obviously. wishing the best for Jack Hughes. We're going to take a quick break right there.

We're going to come back and talk about the teams that have us the most worried so far this season. All right, we're back. And we're going to wrap today by talking about the teams that have us the most worried at this point in the season. We're about a month and a half into this. A month and a week. So it's early. But we also have a pretty good amount of data sharing on some teams. And I want to get your read on a couple in particular.

First, let's start with a team that's in last place. That's the Calgary Flames. 13 points. They're bringing up the rear. It seems like, you know, fire everywhere. I do know the underlying numbers for them are a little more favorable. So can you kind of help us square what to make of the Calgary Flames right now? Yeah, I mean, listen, they have Dustin Wolf and that's a huge advantage for them.

We saw it last year, right? Like, he was the reason they were anywhere near the playoff picture. I just think the team in front of him is lacking. I think at the end of the day, that's what it is. They don't generate enough offense. They don't have enough finishing talent, right? Like, it's Nazim Katri against the world sometimes in Calgary. So I think there's a lot of room for improvement on both ends of the ice, but you look at it at the same time and go, that's okay, because the big picture's in mind.

Like, you see the underlying numbers go, well, there's more that they can play up to. And it's like, okay, if they do, they do great. If they don't, whatever, you just don't want to burn out your starting goalie who is going to be your franchise goaltender. That's my, like, one and only thought with them when I watch them. I'm like, because it's not even, when you watch the blues, you go, okay, why aren't you scoring up to expectations? The flames, I'm like, okay, so you're not. Just don't hurt Dustin Wolf and will be fine. Where would you wishcast

Nassum-Cadry too? Like where's the best fit in the league that you see for Everyone always needs a 2C And he's like the quintessential 2C Where does he fit best right now? Okay, I would love like a Nassum-Cadry sweepstakes Because I just think it would be so much fun Because I feel like the Leaps would be involved

And then lose out on him And I think that would be great I don't think they can afford him I don't know who they could give up for Nassim-Cadry right now Nope, I would wonder a little bit about a Montreal all. I feel like they could make some sense. I feel like their second line had a lot of scoring pop this year so far and it's really exciting. But with the new hook injury, I'm like, you know what? They could use a little bit of help. And they're one of those younger teams that I think could,

I think when you're a young team, you could go way veteran-y, right, and totally screw yourselves. And you think of like the sabres when they sign like those Ocoposo deals. Like they weren't ready for them in that moment. I think the fact that I took such a measured approach this summer, you know, I think that allows them to go for a veteran now because they went young, as they should, right? So let's look ahead now. And you know, you already brought them up, but we always have to ask,

how does this affect the Leafs? The Leafs are a tirefire right now. You know, they're not that bad, but in Toronto it feels like the apocalypse right now. Austin Matthews is hurt. He wasn't scoring at his crazy rate of a couple years ago anyway. Joseph Wall looked good against Chicago Saturday night.

That's encouraging because goaltending has been such a step back this year. but what has to be fixed in Toronto? Can this be salvaged? I mean, everything. Listen, I think these are problems at every single level. And I'm not actually to be like, oh, wow, I told you so. But I'm sorry, like hiring Bradtree Living, you're kind of getting what you paid for, right?

Like, to me, he's not this inventive job manager. And then it was that overall direction to go tougher and grittier. And I understand teams needing that. And when you see the Panthers went back to back, I think there's that, like, push towards it even more. but it's hard skill. It's being tough to play against in a different way. And I just feel like the Leafs went too defensively minded with things instead of, I don't know, the fact that they needed scoring depth when they had a hundred point Mitch

Marner on their roster. So it feels like this is just a situation of their own making, right? They hired this general manager. I don't think he's done the right thing. He hired this coach, who I'm sorry, I don't think Craig Barubi is the coach for a team that needs more scoring when it matters the most. Yes, they need to be more battle tested, but that's not problem A, to me, right? And then the roster is flawed. And it's a result of that. And I think guys are

underperforming. You're like, well, who could have predicted this? Let me push back on that a little bit here, because I see your point, right? We all called for years for the Leafs to get stronger, tougher, more defensive. I think for good reason, though. And I think what you're seeing now is not that the Leafs, you know, leaned too far into that identity. It is that they lost Mitch Marner. And yeah, they couldn't afford as much of a supporting cast when they had him and Nylander and Matthews and Tavares because they were all making those huge salaries. That's the league. That's the salary cap.

You cannot have this many offensive-minded players, this many point producers, and afford it. I think the issue is not that they overdid it. It's just that they lost Mitch Marner. Like, there's just not anyone out there they could have replaced him with. And so in some ways, it's a mess of they're making. Their asset list because of how hard they pushed. I don't have a problem with how hard they pushed. You can quibble with the players they pushed for, right?

Now, I did think Scott Lotton was a good fit for them last year. I'm not going to quibble and say that that's worked. great. But I do think this is, they did what we all said they should do. And I don't think they were wrong to do it. It just didn't work out. They took the Panthers of seven games. Has there been a more catastrophic trade than that, that Lawton trade? I mean, it was bad. He's no better than David Camp, who they're paying to go away. And they gave up a first rounder to do it. I'm not defending that like, it's a great trade or something. I'm just saying I don't, I'm not confused about why they did that. I don't think it was a bad idea from the jump. Shane, I do

think you panned that trade at the time. So you can definitely victory lap that 100%. No, wait. I'm sorry. I just, they took the Panthers to seven games is what we heard from so many Leafs fans for months like, hang the banner. I'm not saying hang the banner. I'm saying like they that is how close they were. Yes. I will give them that much. If that goes the other way, they're still without Mitch Marner probably. But yeah, it's like that's why they did that. They did that to push the Panthers. And they pushed them harder than anyone else did. I think if you're going to lean as defensive as they did, right? And like, Like, I'm not faulting getting Chris Tannenvin players like that, right?

Like, that makes sense for them. And I think you see, like, how Benoit has become a really good defenseman for them. Like, those kinds of players, sure. If you're going to go that route, though, like, you already know you have a scoring problem that it's like, okay, so now you need to fix that. And that you had that problem with Marner. Like, giving Max, don't me more minutes, wouldn't have been the answer, right? You look at just like things along the way and it's like, okay, Michelle, yes, I get the vision, right? Here's a playmaker.

Maybe if you put him with better guys, he'll be good. And that's the kind of bet you should be making. But I think you needed more certainty than that, right? And you were never, if you're the Leafs, you're never replacing Mitch Marner in free agency. It doesn't happen. Players don't make it there. And we know that he's, you know, he technically didn't even make it there because he got traded. But I think it's like you need to find that balance because you can't just bet on the fact like, okay, well, if you can keep games to two nothing score, you know, three to one because your defense is so good.

Like you can't win in this league. And I think we see teams like the Oilers, the fact that they thrive and make it to two straight Stanley Cup. finals is proof of that, right? Like, you can get by with a more chaotic approach, I think, if you can have that pace and tempo and it's like, that should have been their bread and butter, maybe they should have leaned into it a little bit more while fixing the fringes. But I think that, like, if the oilers never win a cup, we're all going to be able to point to one reason why they didn't win a cup, and it's because they never had a goalie, right? And the Leafs leaned more into offense, it would have been the exact same way.

We would be having this exact same conversation, and it was because they never got serious about having hard depth about, you know, a defensive identity, right? Like, they leaned into the thing that they obviously needed to try to fix, and it just didn't work. Like, I'm not saying that it worked. I'm saying that, like, it,

they tried the approach that was the obvious approach to take and it failed. I am extremely worried about them. I'm not saying I'm not worried about the Leafs. I'm just saying I'm not like, how could they be in this position? This is where it ends up when you fail for a whole generation

of those players. Sorry, my God. How much would we have torched them had they just run it back yet again? Like there's no winning for this team. There really isn't, and that's what makes it even better. But it's like they're leaning to like, we need to collect everyone's ex-captains because we don't have leadership. It's like I feel like it's like they either half-ass their experiments and then they change course.

And it's like, well, none of it's going to work because now all of a sudden they're going to start scrambling for what? Like more offense. But instead they were like, we'll bring in Dakota Joshua and here are more players of the same. Like, I just don't think that there's a strong enough vision at the top. And I think that's where it's like, okay, so you went defensive. What do you do now? You can't just do one thing in this league, right? You can't just say, okay, we're going to fix one thing and that's it.

Like you need to be like, okay, we need to be a well-rounded threat that has three scoring lines. Okay, what are you going to do about that? Well, you're going to get fourth line guys. You're going to bring a Machelli who is a healthy scratch in Utah at the end. I just, I have concerns. I just, it's everywhere. And now the other part of it, too, that I don't, it's getting talked about in Leafsland because everything does.

like let's, we know that is the Lane Lambert, Derek Lalonde of it all. I am so perplexed at Derek Lalonde because I thought he was so good with Tampa Bay as a PK coach, as a defensive coach. And yes, they've brought in other coaches and it still worked because John Cooper is very good at his job and they have really good players. But I think we saw like a little bit of a step back from Tampa when La La Lawn left goes to Detroit and is horrible at the things that he should be good at. And now Lane Lambert leaves.

and I don't think everyone was like clamoring for Lambert per se. But like I think we know he could be an elite defensive coach and elite PK coach. And he showed, hey, he can do it away from very trots. Derek Lalong goes there. Okay, go back to your strengths. Maybe, maybe like Lambert, you struggled at being a head coach in your first go-round. But you can go back to being a very good assistant coach. What is happening with that?

I don't know. Like I, it's always hard to parse coaching dynamics, right? All I know is the Red Vings PK, as you well know, Shane, it was a disaster last year too, right? So it's like that is not out of it. nowhere necessarily there. And you never knew how much of that is Bob Boogner, who was technically in charge of in Detroit, how much of it is the loaned, obviously the struggles have certainly seemed to follow him.

To kind of loop this all together, though, like when I talk about this with Toronto, I'm not say, I'm very, I'm much more worried about them, for example, than I am the Calgary Flames, not in terms of making the playoffs this season, because I think the Leafs are much more likely to make the playoffs this year than the Calgary Flames. But more about the direction overall, because the flames, like you alluded last, like, they're probably going to trade Nazim Kadri. They're probably going to trade Rasmus Anderson. This is now as obvious of a rebuild situation as there is maybe in the NHL.

Like you're going to kickstart this and you have two premium assets to kickstart it with. I don't know, Laz, how the Leafs get out of this because you have a great bargain contract in John Tavares and it's going to go to waste if they're not able to progress further than this, right? You have your star players, but you clearly don't have enough of really anything. and you have no assets because of the obvious what you did, which was chasing it while you had that window. And I have no idea where Toronto goes now from this. Yeah, it feels like Toronto is where Chicago was eight, nine years ago, where Pittsburgh was six, seven years ago, where Tampa was maybe two years ago, we thought, except those teams had multiple championships to sit on. And Toronto is in that same situation where they've got some stars, but they don't have enough around it to make it into a contender year after year.

and they're locked into these contracts, and they don't have any banners hanging from that era. So they have no goodwill from the fans to lean on, no good faith from the hockey world to lean on, and they're just sitting there with these onerous contracts and really, really, really amazingly good players and not enough of them and nowhere to go with them. They're in the worst kind of a limbo

because, you know, Chicago can do the kind of rebuild that they've done over the last year. This is just scorched earth, burn the shire to the ground rebuild, because they have three banners. And Pittsburgh eventually is going to get there. They're kind of playing with our emotions right now. But when they do, they will have the same kind of goodwill. Toronto, there's no goodwill in Toronto.

There is none at all. And it's not an enviable position to be in right now. Not as toxic of a market here necessarily in terms of the, well, I shouldn't say that about the market. Not as toxic of a discourse as in Toronto. But the Minnesota Wilder in a similar situation like that. They're one of these teams that has stars, but they haven't really ever won. And they are off to a tough start. And I wonder what you make of that.

Yeah, it's tough because like, again, you get into that nitpicking zone, right? When you talk about the best players in the world and like the Austin Matthews and William Nealander is not going to take away what they are, but they don't do it when it matters most. So if you're going to commit a ton of cap to these guys, I think you need to know that they can do it. Well, I don't want to fault Nealander because he's really going to the playoffs. But like with Matthews, right? Like you need it that if you're paying these huge star players that they're going to do it all

of the time. Minnesota at least knows that. Carol Caprice off. I get it. You're going to say, oh, it's an overpayment. Everyone says then they're freaking out because then you see the other contracts that come out afterwards, right? I don't have an issue with it because it is really hard to get star players. And Crowell Capriestoff is one of the best wangers in the world and he can do it in the playoffs.

So can Matt Boldie? And I think you figure it all out and you go, that is fine. Right? Like, it works for them. I think too when you're a team like Minnesota, you don't have the goodwill to be like, well, look, we're a Vegas. We're a perennial contender. We're not going to overpay you. Like, you're Minnesota, you're barely getting out of the first round ever. You have to be like, okay, our star player, here is everything that you can want more because without you, they're completely toast. So I think. they're in an okay position in that they have, you know, boldy caprice off and they have Brock favorite. That's a good core. And I think Spurgeon's still pretty good. And you have Zeeb William who,

yes, there's some defensive warts, but you see the upside there. I just, I struggle with the fact that they had all this cap space finally opened up and what they did with it. I feel like this is a team that, you know, you need to get a little bit younger. You need to get a little bit faster. And they're like, oh, we're just going to extend some veterans and just hand out some money this. And it's like, it doesn't, you didn't do enough. You didn't thread the needle there. you had the opportunity to do so. So I think that's what really hurts them. I think the key to all of this with teams is when you recognize that you're not that good, right?

Like, do you just hope for the best and push for the playoffs and get out in round one again? Or do you go, okay, maybe this isn't our year. We step back this year and we're going to be great. We can start reloading right now. Like, if you can recognize that immediately, stop the bleeding, fix your problems, get stuff for next year. You don't have these problems continuing for year after year, which then becomes oh, we should retool and just kidding, now we have to tear it down completely.

So not to be like overdramatic, but I wonder if they don't figure it out soon, do you make a decision and just start prepping for next year? But it's so increasingly difficult to do that, to change on the fly to add. Everyone's got cat space. We talked about it earlier in the show. There are no free agents anymore. And fewer teams, the parody is so insane right now. And everyone except for the Buffalo Sabres and the Calgary Flames are in the playoff picture right now.

So nobody's going to be trading. You used to be able to make trades in November. Every year there would be a bigger trade or two in November where a team's like, all right, we're screwed this year. Let's get rid of some guys get ahead of this. Get some young players back. And we don't have that anymore because everyone's in it until like mid-March at this point. So the trade deadline is going to be quiet. Summer free agency is going to be a complete dud.

It's like I'm with you. Like the wild need to, they can't just stay on this course, but I'm not sure they're going to have any other options. Now that they've signed Caprizo, it does feel like a little more plausible just because you're not like going to lose him if that happens. but it's interesting because I feel like the last few years have been, when they had that cap jam, right, from the Parisian suitor buyouts, those were the years that I feel like you could justify being like, well, we're playing short-handed and that's the situation here. This was supposed to be kind of the end of that. And so I think it's disappointing to see where they've come out of it. And you certainly don't want to mess around too much with Caprizo's prime years. You don't want to mess around too much with missing Joel Erickson-Eck on one of the best value contracts in the NHL for my money on his best window.

So they're in a tough spot for sure. The last team I want to hit, Shane, is staying in the Central Division. The St. Louis Blues, and Jeremy Rutherford, I thought, hit it on the head with his column the other day. The Blues have proved that they are just a bad team is the headline. Do you have any reason to doubt that? The meanest thing that J.R. has ever said in his life. About anyone or anything. I mean, honestly, right?

Like, no, I don't. It's funny. A couple weeks ago, we worked on a story together. And it was like how the numbers, you know, it's not all bad. here's where it actually is bad. And then they won a game where like, you know what? They need some good news. Like that's how nice he is.

He was like, no, no, we're going to talk about their win. We'll circle back to this, right? Like, oh, God, they're so bad. Like, they're a team that, and Jim Montgomery were saying this, right? Like, the process is there. The numbers below the surface are better than the results. And he was completely right on that because they were generating more quality offense than the score sheet showed on a nightly basis. And at the time, it was when we wrote this, I think Robert Thomas came back for one game.

or like he was back for his first game. And you go, okay, well, maybe the shot quality from what we can see with public metrics doesn't capture the fact that the pre-shot movement is worse. You're down one of the worst passers in the league in Robert Thomas. Like, that could be hurting you. The defense, it's not as bad, but the goaltending's a wreck. And now it's like, okay, you know what? Maybe this roster is more flawed than we realize, right?

Like, I think their offseason was questionable. I didn't like the Bull Duke trade to bring in Logan Malue. I didn't understand it enough. I didn't like it. But it's not like that's a backbreaking deal. in itself. I just felt like they didn't do enough to build off of what they did post four nations, like say Montreal did, right? Like they took their teams and kind of, one went very quiet, one went a little bit louder. And I think the blues could have been a lot louder this summer

because they don't have a ton of like great goal scores on the stressor. They have good forwards. Outside of Robert Thomas, I should say, they have a lot of good forwards, but you don't look at and go, well, they have a ton of game breakers. Okay, so you're going with the depth of approach. You better bring in more scores to make that click, right? And I just don't feel like they did. it. And now the fact that both goaltenders are just got awful, it's, it's horrible out there in St. Louis. And it's similar, you know, the wilder, I think, are 5-1-1-1 in their last seven. Marker Rossi's out, but they've stabilized. Yesper Walsett is out playing Philip Gustafin. You know, there's good news that we had there. The blues have kind of stabilized a little bit. They had another, like, a 3-1-1 stretch.

You know, they got a point versus Philly. They lost to Vegas. It happens. But, like, I feel like both those teams really needed to crash out hard. They needed to really rock bottom out. And I don't think that's going to happen. They're going to get mildly competitive again. They're going to think they can sneak in and get that first round revenue again. And they're just going to be on this treadmill of doom forever because that's the way the NHL is designed. I think that's the key to this whole segment, right? We're not just sitting here saying, like, who are the four worst teams in the NHL? I think that's a, boring conversation. These are the teams that, like, what you've seen so far both about this year and the big picture worries you. And I think, I think St. Louis fits in that. I think Minnesota fits into

that. Yep. And I think with like Minnesota, at least, I'm like, okay, I can see, how things could turn around, right? Because of the really high-end talent, because we haven't seen, you know, Zeev, William at his best. And now you have Matsugrello back, which I think he's a great support player on that top line. He's super effective. But more importantly, he resets the depth chart, right?

Like, you don't have to load up that top line with Boldy and Caprisov every time you're in panic mode where you don't have to have players playing out of their positions. Like, it just resets it in a way that you need that you can now look at that team if your management and go, okay, now what's missing? Right, because the entire time you had that in your back pocket. Okay, we were missing. that. Right? So the blues, they get Robert Thomas back and it's like, okay, you're still bad.

Maybe you're worse now. I don't know. Who's to say? Because I think the expectations are different now with Robert Thomas in the fold. I'm more worried about St. Louis than I am Minnesota somehow. Yeah. All right. Well, let's wrap there. Great stuff, Shana. Thank you all for listening to this episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. You can subscribe on YouTube at YouTube.com slash at the athletic hockey show to watch full episodes. How many Shons are too many? We're going to find out the answer to that question on Wednesday. And Sean Jintilly, Sean McIndoo and Frankie Corrado, have the next episode. We'll talk to you then.