The Athletic Hockey Show - Latest Canada, USA world juniors roster projections, lamenting the likely end of the in-person NHL Draft, and more

Episode Date: December 8, 2023

On this week’s Prospect Series episode of The Athletic Hockey Show it’s a full house as Max and Corey are joined by The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler and FloHockey’s Chris Peters to discuss their updated world juniors roster projections for Team Canada and Team USA, including their confidence level in Canada’s goaltending, fair expectations for Macklin Celebrini, a non-invite for Owen Pickering, Charlie Stramel getting cut, Rutger McGroarty’s availability, James Hagens’ potential role, Trey Augustine or Jacob Fowler in net for the US, and more. Plus, the guys talk about the likely last in-person NHL Draft at the Las Vegas Sphere this summer and what’s being lost if the league moves away from the current format going forward.Subscribe to The Athletic Hockey Show on YouTube: http://youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowGift a 1-year subscription to The Athletic for $19.99 or a 2-year subscription for $39.99 when you visit theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody. Max Bolton here for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show's Prospect Series. We have a full house today. Corey Prondman, Scott Wheeler, the Athletic, Chris Peters, a flow hockey. It's a full roundtable. That of the athletic applied to both you, Corey. I see you giving me that look.

You have an affiliation here with us. The point is we got a full house and we got a full show. we've got the preliminary rosters for the U.S. and Canada, the pools that will be narrowly trimmed down to make the world junior rosters. We're going to start there and go in depth. And obviously, we got to start with Team Canada. Team Canada, every year, of course, they struggle with, you know, the player pool that they have and who are they actually going to have the chance to bring. And we factor that in very early when we go through this process and these discussions. but even at the end of the summer, we thought there was at least a chance they would get one of Zach Benson, Kevin Kortinski. I think we felt pretty good about them getting Matt Pwatra.

Scott, they have none of them available to them here. Yeah, that's tough. And when you look at this roster from top to bottom, it does feel thinner than we're used to for Canada, especially side by side what will and we'll get into it. But really, really strong age groups for Sweden and USA. I was on the phone with a couple of coaches over in Sweden for a story I'm working on this morning. And they said they think this is the best Swedish roster that they've had in five to ten years kind of thing. And certainly I know USA hockey feels the same way about their group.

So that side by side the fact that, yeah, Canada is going to be hurt more than they usually are. And they're always victims a little bit, just because of the way that junior hockey works, they tend to be victims of losing more guys to the NHL and HL, whereas a lot of the college kids get to stay a little bit longer and they're made available and all of that. So that always plays a little bit of a role in this tournament. and this year it's pronounced especially. I mean, you mentioned Poitra. I think everybody knew that he was a very good player. He was a well-liked prospect for sort of the pro-quality,

even by NHL Central scouting if you go back through his draft year. But he wasn't expected to become a top-nine staple for a very good Boston Bruins team, right? So it hurts. It's going to hurt on top of Fantilli and Connor Bedard and the guys that you would typically expect them not to have. There's also a couple of guys that they're still waiting on. And my understanding is they're still hopeful that they may at some point, even if it's closer to the Christmas Eve deadline, that they may at some point get one of Benson or or Plot-Track kind of thing, even if they're not participating in camp.

So, Corey, when you look at this team then without those guys, though, like, what does Canada have here to work with? They're still very good players. I know you and Scott did your projections, and we're still looking at a potential 2024, number one overall pick and Macklin-Celebrini on this roster. I'm still looking at, you know, guys who have gone very high in the draft, Nate Danielson, Braden Yeager, Matt Savoy, what does Canada still have to work with? How do you think it all stacks up?

Yeah, and to echo Scott's point, you know, they have a little bit of times decided in NHL players. They may not go to camp, or they made us, you know, Buffalo made aside with Benson, for example, that they get closer to when the tournament actually starts, that maybe they loan him out. But in terms of what they do have, they've lost a lot of forwards to the NHL, but they've really lost only one defenseman to the NHL and Kevin Kortchinsky. Otherwise, this blue line group is mostly the top names in this age group. And this age group actually has ever been Canada's strongest age group historically.

But they still get then to Matejuk, a high first round pick. Tristan Luno has played NHL games with Anahy. He was the Q defenseman of the year last season. Maverick Lamarro looks like a really good defense prospect. First round pick by Arizona is having a very nice year in Drummondville. And we'll see how the rest of their blue line plays out in camp. But for the most part, their blue line, I think, is quite strong. I think is clearly the best blue line in this tournament.

And they're going to need it because while they have a good forward group, their goal tending is going to be a question until it's not proven a question at this tournament. Okay, so you bring up the goal is. I mean, how do you see it shaking out? I know you and Scott kind of have settled on Mathis Rousseau is the kind of guy in both of your projections. How confident are you there? Not really. I think a lot of what's going to happen with the goal is it's going to come down

of the games against you sports in terms of who makes the team what the goalie death chart order is going to look like. I mean, this is a bunch of goalies with other than Scott Ratslav who played well at the Holink that was not really having a good year at all in the WHL. This is a group of goalies with next to no international experience. So there's a lot to be proven here still in terms of who's going to emerge as the guy among this group.

Rousseau is a very talented junior goalie, but he is 510, 5-11 so though there are concerns around his size you know with you have you know with in rats left samuel saint-Hillair you have some guys who uh have at least chances i think to be the one guy just because i think i don't think rousseau uh has earned it by any stretch of the imagination and and if you'd ask people around the CHL this summer they probably would have given you domt even gentis as as the presumptive guy just off of the season that he had a year ago a year ago in North Bay, bringing that team sort of deep into the playoffs and the top of the OHL standings and all of that. And he of the four goalies who are coming to camp has actually

had the worst season. So I think even Hockey Canada is sort of unsure about what direction this is going to go. Ratslap has been a little bit better of late. I think he had a shutout a couple of weekends and his weekends ago and his numbers have bounced back. I think he's back over 900 kind of thing. But Rousseau is the one with the best numbers of the bunch and he plays on a Halifax team that just rolls everybody in that league. And this is a really, really weak year for the queue. So it's going to be, it's going to be spicy. And you look across the aisle, you've got Trey Augustine, Jacob Fowler, Hugo

Havelin for the Swedes, proven players, proven goaltenders who've been on big stages before. So it definitely seems like they're a sort of a step behind in that regard. Michael Harabal for the Czechs, Adam Gayon, with, on Slovakia. Yeah. No, yeah, I agree with you. I think it's going to come down to the U-Sports games, the pre-tournament games. I think there's going to be a lot to be determined in terms of Canada's goal-tending.

Obviously, I think people watch this tournament. Last year, so much of it was about Badaard and the amazing things he was doing, especially from a draft perspective, Chris, McClain-Cellibini is, you know, especially with some of the absences that we've talked about for Canada, seems like there could be some real spotlight for him. What is a fair expectation for McClin-Cellibini here? and how does he fit in with Team Canada, guys?

Yeah, you know, it's going to be really interesting to see if they put him down the middle or if he's going to end up being on the wing and playing. I think, you know, to me, you have to have them in your top six.

I think of the players that they've brought in, you know, to me, even at 17 years old, Macklin Celebrini is one of the best players on that team. And I, you know, I think obviously when you lose certain players,

that's part of it where he actually comes in and he will improve, them. You look at everything he's done as a younger player wherever he has been, whether it's the USHL last year, whether it was the under 18 world championship where he set a Canadian scoring record, or whether it was at this season at Boston University where he's been among the top freshmen that we've seen in terms of points per game, that's pretty impressive. And so I think we underestimate him at our own risk. We saw what Connor Bidard did last year. I'm not same celebrini is Connor Bedard.

But I think given the opportunity, given the ice time, and if they play him, you know, with like, you know, players that can kind of play at his level, then I think that he is going to have a leading role for this team or can have a leading role for this team. And I think he's proven that he deserves a leading role for this team. We see, you know, obviously, everyone would love to see the first overall pick in each draft, do what Bedard did. We've also seen guys like Adam Fantilli and even other top picks, Quentin Byfield had a quieter tournament. Like where on that on a spectrum, Corey, do you think the expectations for Celebrini's kind of output should be?

Well, I think what's different between the teams that Fantilli and Byfield were on and Celebrity's team is they need him. They need him to play an important role, you know, be a top six four like Chris said. So I think he's going to be given an opportunity, you know, with this. the minutes in the power play time to help this team to put up points to get regular, even strange shifts. Because you really look around this Canadian forward group, and it's a lot of very talent forward. It's a lot of first round picks, high first round picks.

We've really see how this Canadian group is coming together. You know, the elite scorers on this team were guys like Jagger Ferkis or Jordan Dume, who are smaller wingers who are not elite skaters. You have a guy like Matt Savoy, who is a much better skater, but is also on the smaller side. You know, the centers, you know, guys like Connor Geek. Nate Danielson, Braden Yeager, great players. I wouldn't call any of those guys game breakers by any means. So they need somebody like Celebrity who has unique traits,

who has elite offensive traits, to really stand out in this tournament. So while I don't think he's going to have a kind of tournament of Connor Bardard did, nobody had a tournament of the Conrad did until Connor Bedard was there, so I don't think it's fair to expect that. I do, you know, I think he will provide a bigger impact for them than Annifant. Until he did last year, that couldn't buy a field. but maybe somewhere behind, you know, he's not going to be challenging.

I don't think for the MVP, the tournament, like say how Alexi Lafranier did when he was on this team. Yeah, that was actually going to be my question. Can he have a, can he have a lot? We forget how good LaFranier was with how he is in the NHL right now, with how good he was at the world juniors. And I was, that was the guy where I was like, maybe, maybe in that. But yeah, it'd be really hard to match that, given how. Nearly a full year younger than him, too.

Yeah, exactly. Yeah, the youth. The youth factor is no small thing. But yeah, but, you know, to this point, we've seen Celebrini just overachieve time after time. So nothing would surprise me from him at this point. Scott, we've talked a lot about the names that Canada won't have maybe for reasons beyond their control, guys that we think the NHL teams are going to hang on to here. There was one name on this blue line, though, that I think a few of us expected to see who Owen Pickering not invited for Team Canada. Yeah, that was the only one that sort of jumped out at me.

I know there was a lot of hoopla online about Riley Haidt, who's leading the WHL in scoring and a prolific offensive player at the junior level. But height, I mean, we were all there for U18 Worlds. Hight wasn't particularly impressive. He joined that team late. And when you don't really star at U18 Worlds, it's very hard to make team Canada as an 18-year-old. So I think it was always going to just be a tall task for Hight after the way he played in Switzerland. Different, different scenario with a 19-year-old six-foot-four defensemen who can really skate,

right? And in Pickering's case, you've got, I mean, for God's sake, he's Denton Matechuk's cousin. There's all sorts of ties to hockey Canada. Part of the reason he was a first-round draft pick was because of how well he played for hockey Canada internationally that season. So all of that was sort of, I thought, would have been a really strong factor. But then you talk to people, and he wasn't in Buffalo when we were there for the for the rookie tournament to start the season because he was banged up early on this year and stayed home and sort of did some rehab in Pittsburgh. He wasn't very good in his jump to the HL at the end of last season and really struggled in the HL. Despite his size, he's not a very physical player. He's not a very big strong kid. He's a pretty skinny kid if you

run into him around the rink. And he just hasn't had a phenomenal junior season. Like he's been good and he's the captain of that team and he plays big minutes, but it's not like he just grabbed a hold of it. So I think ultimately they just felt that some of their other 19-year-olds that they were bringing, the Jory and Donovins, the Michael Bouchinger's had just played better and had better seasons. And they felt like between what they've got in the length of Maverick Lamaroo and the experience of Tristan Luno, they probably felt like on that right side, like they were in a pretty good spot without him. All right. Let's take a quick pause right there.

And we'll be right back and talk about Team USA. All right, we're back talking the United States of America. And their team, as we've talked about, really since the summer guys, it's the story starts with an incredibly deep forward group, so deep a forward group, in fact, that they cut a two-time returner, which you very rarely see, Charlie Stramel. And it's still deep, even with the injury guys, to Rucker McGrady, that while, you know, I guess we don't know those specifics,

but he's out right now. And Chris, I guess if I asked you to take a look at this, you know, does it seem realistic for Rucker-Migrory to play? Where is this at? You know, I would say that I would be fairly surprised if he ends up playing. It sounds like the, you know, the injury that he sustained is something that would have an undetermined timeline, something that would not necessarily, you couldn't really put, you know, three weeks, four weeks, you know, anything like that on it. It's just something that is going to require time. He sustained that injury a couple weeks ago.

So, you know, he's been out since then. He was hospitalized as well, which adds another element. The thing about Rutger Magrorty is he's such an important piece of this age group. He has been with these guys at so many, you know, this age group has also played in a youth Olympics. They lost the youth Olympics to Russia. They have lost the under 18 worlds. Some of them as underagers twice.

They lost last year, you know, got bronze, but lost in the semifinal last year. So this age group is feeling like, hey, this is our last chance to do it. And McGority is one of their leaders. And I think he's just as important. off the ice as he is on it. And he is important on it because he plays hard. And that's the other thing is with an injury, can he play the style that makes him effective?

If they, let's say, so let's put it this way. If he can get on the, if he can't get on the plane to go to Sweden, he's obviously not going to be on the team. If he can get on the plane, that buys them essentially 10 more days to find out. And I think that they will give Rutger-Migrory every single opportunity to make this team if he's healthy enough to do so. if he can't, it's really unfortunate, but I think he's the kind of guy they would just love to have a round as an option. But unfortunately, you know, I personally would be surprised, but knowing Rucker McGrody's personality, knowing how much they think of him,

I just think that they'll give him every opportunity to be there with them. What door does that open, Corey? In the world where McGrady doesn't play, who stands to, you know, it's not an easy role to fill, as Chris was just described. Right. And I don't think they have that player. I don't think there is that player waiting in the wings to fill that high-end compete power game with size and scoring. But I think for me, when I was trying to see how this roster would come together, I think you kind of presume that Cutter Goethe, Jimmy Snuggarood, Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, they were all in. Gavin Brunley was going to be in. Frank Nazar has played very well. I think he's played his way into a solid position.

I think there were some questions on the wing, how would that play out? And I think you looked at Gabe Perrault and Isaac Howard as two guys who I think were fighting for one of those top nine wing spots. And as the season has progressed, I think the answer to that question became Perot. If it was between the two of them, I think Perrault was going to win that spot. Now with Monoma Grorty, it might be now you might have both of them in there. Whereas coming into camp, I think there was a question on which one of those two. would they be leaning on in that scoring role?

And one of the guys that you didn't even mention there is James Hagan's is not one of the wingers, but Scott, I mean, this is a prospect that we're very excited about for 2025, obviously. Can he make it invites? I don't know if he's technically a double underage because of the birthday, but he's a young player at this event. Yeah. And I mean, I mean, we're talking about the presumptive number one pick for 2025 at this point,

again, still early, but that's the kind of talent. That's the kind of class of. player that you're discussing. He can certainly skate and play make with the best of this age group in front of him. He played well enough up a year. Last year in New 18 Worlds, I believe he had five points in seven games and was noticeable on the puck in terms of just making plays and sort of playing his game. And if they're going to play Cutter Goteer at the wing, which they often have internationally, even though he's played a good deal of center in college, then suddenly outside of Will Smith, there's probably an opening there for James Higgins to step in and potentially

even play with Cutter Gote and Jimmy Snuggrood, who were obviously linemates of Logan Cooley's at the program. So there's an opportunity for James, not just to make this team, but to be a guy, to be on the first power play or second power play, and to be one of their top six centers and play in a scoring role and get out there and let the skating and the natural instinct that he has offensively sort of take over and dictate. It'll, it would, It's going to be a conversation and a talking point for sure. If he falters, do you see a player like a Frank Nazar and all of them or maybe hop up at some point in the round robin and sort of fill that void for a game or two if he's struggling? So it's going to be something worth following.

A lot of eyes are going to be on him in those pre-tournament games and into if he makes it out of camp, which I think we assume he will in pre-tournament and then into those first couple of games of the round Robin. Can he hang? And I think all indications are that he'll be just fine. the talent and the skating and just the way that he thinks the game out there. But it's going to be a major storyline for this tournament. And obviously he'll be eligible to come back again next year and sort of take on an even greater role. I think Scott's point about if Hagan's falters is an important one because there is a ton of

precedent for a draft minus one stepping into a team USA at the U20 level and being a significant contributor. You know, we're talking about Hagan's maybe being the first or second line. center on this team. Jack Hughes didn't even make the World Junior team as a draft minus one. Austin Matthews and Jack Eichol were on their draft minus one World Junior teams and they did get their points. But I wouldn't have called them a top player on those teams. So I think with Hagan's, you know, if we're going to play him in a top six role, he needs to be properly sheltered and there needs to be realistic expectations that if things don't go well,

you need to find somebody else who can go up there and play those minutes. I will say though, and Chris, you made this point in your story on flow hockey about the camp roster. Hagen's was one of the better players at the selection camp. Like it is a different level when the tournament begins and it's not intra-squad, but he was really, really good this summer. And I imagine he's going to continue to trend up because that's generally how it goes at this age. Yeah, absolutely. I think, and that summer camp is really very important because the,

when you play against the Sweden and Finland, then also even in the inner squad games, continually standing out. I mean, I thought there were times where James Hagen's looks like the number one center in that camp. And there were times where, you know, they had Goce at center. They had Bill Smith at center. But you can make a case that Hagan's was. And just to the point of how rare this is for Team USA specifically, there are 11 players in the history of this tournament that have played in their draft minus one season.

almost all of them are forwards. You know, Charlie Stramel, who did not make the team this year with the last one to do it in the summer world juniors. Yeah, Austin Matthews, Jack Eichle, Phil Kessel, Jordan Schrader, Brian Leach were among the 11 that played. So it just does not happen very often. And I do think like the pre-tournament games are critical for USA. They won't play exhibitions at home. And so they have to really use those games to make those final roster. decision and one of those key things, they will play Canada in one of those games and getting

James Hagan's in that environment and finding out what, you know, what he's made of in that kind of environment is really going to be the deciding factor of where he's going to play. But I firmly believe that he has an opportunity to be a top, a top six center on this roster. I remember in the summer tournament where you had, after the 2019 draft, you had Alex Turcock played very well. That's where I can't Cole Cofield was outstanding. Camp York played well. and then into the pre-term, it was the same thing.

And then the real game started, and all of a sudden, Scott Sandlin started going towards the older players. So it's definitely a will-see what it comes to a draft minus one. One more quick thought on the forwards. We talk about in the open court, were you surprised at the decision to not keep stream? Obviously, it's been a quieter year for him, but it is a double returner and a guy who has quite a significant dimension that not many guys of this tournament have with the physicality.

Yeah, obviously when you are, I actually can't remember last time I've seen it. I've seen returning members of teams get cut. I've never seen a two-time returning member of a team get cut. So that's a new one to me. And if anybody can remember a precedent of that, feel free to send that one my way. It's, but he hasn't played well this year. He's been injured to this season. But even when he's been healthy, he's been playing towards the bottom of Wisconsin's lineup

and hasn't really made a significant difference. I think his one goal was against Alaska. So it's been a tough year for him. And so I don't mind. You know, the games have to matter. Florida State University, and I think so. But they definitely do.

But I think, you know, his performance has played his way out of there. But when I see it, the guy they brought instead for him, which was his teammates in Quinn Finley and William Whitelaw, those surprise me a little bit. I'm not sure what they think those two particularly are going to add to this team, especially someone like Whitelaw, who is at 05-904, you know, small offensive-minded forward, who isn't really putting up big numbers this year. I thought bringing those two instead of Cruz Lucius,

who among all those Wisconsin forwards has the most goals, most points, playing the most minutes on the first power play, instead of any of those guys that we mentioned, I thought that was an interesting decision by USA. Is it possible that they view those guys? And you mentioned kind of the 05 factor for white laws. Like they think that there's a good chance he's in this next year. And they just want to get him more and more reps with the team.

I don't know, maybe. Yeah, it's possible. And to Corey's point, you know, I, you know, if you, usually with guys that are surprises, you'll say, oh, well, at least they'll kill penalties. not with either of those two. So I don't really know, you know, what's going to happen there. But, you know, I think the other thing that's important to note is Danny Nelson has been a number one center for Notre Dame this year. And he's probably really good player for them.

Really good player. He's got the size factor. I think, you know, Stramel traditionally had been the better penalty killer. He was a penalty killer for last year's team. But I think that, you know, Danny Nelson's emergence has helped. You have Oliver Moore who could potentially kill penalties. I think Gavin Brinley is probably going to be their number one penalty killing forward. So, you know, they have options.

And I think, you know, I give the staff credit because they said, well, you know, this is going to, we're going to lose some size here with that. But when a player's not going and really Stramel is not, you have to make that decision. I think the closest thing that comes to this is, is, you know, like Chad Chris played in this tournament as an underager and then play in the subsequent two world juniors after that. That's like the only thing I can think of that is remotely close. And I thought with the familiarity and that size physicality factor that they would still at least get him into camp and see if maybe in that environment he thrived. But really, even in the summer, he wasn't as effective.

So very surprising, you know, surprising that the season has gone the way that it has for him. And you hope that, you know, the pressure doesn't continue to build with this. And I'm sure it will, especially from the, he's a Minnesota kid drafted by the Minnesota Wild. you know, so this is going to be a thing that he's going to have to deal with throughout the rest of the season. Gavin Hayes and Kerry Terrence could PK for this team too. For sure they can. For sure they can. And with Dan, Danny, you've got positional versatility too that they may not have felt

they had in Stramer where Danny played center and wing at the program. Yep, yep. All right, on the blue line here, which has been, you know, at least in the summer, certainly it was the big question around this team. Scott, do you feel any better about this USA Blue Line? today than you might have in the middle of August. I think you have to feel pretty good about what Z. William is going to potentially provide this team.

He's the one guy who has kind of stepped up. And Corey and I have talked about this a little bit in the past. I'm not convinced he's even going to be a low minutes guy for this team. Like they may need a player like him to be to be good, like to be an important piece of this team, right? They need one more guy. You've got Lane Hudson. You've got Ryan Chesley.

You've got Seamus Casey. I think in a gold medal elimination game, we all expect that those three players will be out there virtually every other shift. You'll have one of those three players on the ice at all times, but ideally they need a fourth guy. So can you get that out of Drew Fortescue or Zeeb William? I think you have to hope that Zeeb can step in and potentially be that kind of a guy for this team. But it's not going to be the strength of this team, especially, I mean, Corey mentioned earlier in our discussion about Canada, I mentioned the strength of Canada's blue line.

I think that Swedish blue line is as good a blue line as that. team has maybe ever sent to this tournament. They've got seven legitimate, legitimate players at this level and four or five guys who could sort of play their way into the All-Star conversation. So that's, if anything, that's where this USA team is going to be suspect. And it's not just going to, there isn't just some magical cure like Zeeve or Drew or Sam Renzell or it doesn't matter. Eric Polkamp, these aren't guys who are going to, even if they play to their capabilities, aren't guys who are going to rise to the level of some of the players on that Canadian and Swedish blue line. So it may just be by committee.

And maybe they're going to be on offense. I think there's a real chance they're on offense all tournament. And it doesn't matter as much, right? And they've got two excellent, for sure, two excellent goalies. So they're going to need Lane and Seamus to really make plays. And they're going to need Ryan to play some tough minutes. And you've got to hope that you can get a fourth guy, I think is the outcome there. you know, we mentioned said Boyem before.

I think, you know, he can't understate just how good he's been this season. He's playing a massive role of one of the best teams in the country. And as a defenseman, you know, we've been, we talked earlier this podcast about how good McLan Celebrini has been this year at BU and how we can play a big role on Team Canada. Boyam's only got four fewer points this year than Macklin Celebrini does in college. And so, you know, I think Boyam's going to be a, very good player for them at this level. And I think their blue line, the dynamics of the

has shifted a little bit because I think Renzel has been much better in college the season than I expected him to be. Obviously, Casey's been very good. Hudson's been very good. So I don't think it's going to be the elite blue line. I don't think it's a blue line that is problematic. Are you surprised, Scott, that no Hunter Bustevitz here? A little bit.

I know I was messaging Corey, I was at a game two days before they announced their camp roster in the, Kitchener Rangers brass were there and we were chatting and they were already sort of not sure of it, but worried and just about his invite. So that was kind of a bit of a sort of tip off, if you will. But he he did everything he could. Like you can't play any better at that level. I had another OHL coach not associated with the Kitchener Rangers who texted me right away after

the roster came out that he was like flabbergasted that Hunter just in the games they played against him and how good he'd been, how dominant he's been at that level that he wasn't invited. It's not an equivalent situation to what's, what happened with them leaving a player like Quinton Musty off the roster as well because of the late birthday. This was the end of his world junior dream, right? Like, this was his only opportunity. He's not going to be eligible to play for them next year in a way that a player like

musty will be. So I'm sure it was heartbreaking for him. Just, I mean, he's, he's having a pretty, not historic, but an upper echelon statistical season in terms of the last 20 years. Certainly in Lane Hudson and Seamus Casey, we know that they already have the power play quarterbacks. Those guys are going to run, if they're not on the same unit, they'll run separate units and that's going to be their job.

So maybe they felt that Hunter just didn't provide enough defensively in terms of what he looks like at the international level. But he's not the player he was when he sort of got injured on this, on the second day of his time at the program and then played behind Chesley and Hudson and Casey on that team. He's done some catching up since then and he looks like a legitimate NHL prospect. And again, if it's a meritocracy, I would have at least liked to have seen him in theory get an invite just because

it does send, certainly I think it sends a bit of a message that you probably couldn't have asked him to start his season any better than he did. So there's not much more in terms of the message to him. There's not much more he could have done. Yeah, you know what, and one thing about that, Scott, too, I agree. I like I personally would have liked to have seen him in camp, but I think, I think what it came down to, this was a bad year to be an excellent offensive defenseman, I guess.

Yeah. Because, you know, like that, that was the thing where, you know, to Corey's point where, where I think the people that don't understand why he didn't make it also don't understand how good Lane Hudson, Ryan, Z. William and Seamus Casey are. But we look at it and we say, well, Aaron Menetian did get a an invite is a right shot defenseman. And it's like, where does that fit versus what Hunter has done?

And he's another guy that's eligible for next year. Maybe to Max's earlier point, you're trying to get some of those 05s in because you need to see them. My only concern about this blue line, like, I think they're going to have the puck a lot. This is going to be a puck possession team. They're going to do a lot of things offensively. They're going to be good on the power play. But there is a bit of a lack of balance.

Like Sam Renzel is not an elite defender. Drew's Fortiskew and Ryan Chesley, while good. defensively, I would not call either of them elite defenders. You know, so I think that that's, that's going to be interesting to see, you know, if they don't have the puck a lot, how that's going to, how that's going to manifest itself in the defensive zone. But I do think the way that this team is structured with how good the forwards are and how good this defense is in terms of mobility, which is another thing I wonder with Brestevich. I think he's a, I think his skating is fine, but his north-south speed is not,

he's not, he's not quick. He doesn't play quick. That's kind of my, my, my, assessment of him. I think the other guys do. But, you know, that's going to be kind of something that we have to wait and see with this team. But the balance issues of, you know, who's going to be the stopper? Which defensemen are going to kill penalties? You know, I mean, Ryan Chesley and, you know, I'm sure Seamus Casey will probably be involved in that as well. But, you know, yeah, it's just, it's going to be very interesting to see how they structure that defensive group in terms of minutes and matchups. And that tells you that they're going to need a good goalie. And it seems like they may have two. But I noticed in the prediction.

objections, Scott and Corey. You went different directions on this. Chris, I actually don't remember which way you fell on this. So let's hold on you. I'm going to ask Scott and Corey Corey to make the cases for Trey Augustine and Jacob Fowler respectively. And then we'll come to you for kind of a tiebreaker verdict on behalf of the show here, I guess. Scott, do you want to lead us off with the case for Trey Augustine? Yeah, I mean, they've both been outstanding. They're both playing virtually every game. I believe Trey's backup has started one game. Trey has started all but one game at Michigan State. I think Jacobs played every,

he started every game. Every game, yep. So, I mean, they're both playing every game. They're both playing back to backs. They're both doing it as true freshmen. That's that in and of itself is a credit to the quality of it both are. They're both legitimate NHL goalie prospects. They're both sort of upper echelon guys at their position worldwide, really,

at this point. But, I mean, Trey's the returney. That's ultimately the, why I landed there. he's been the starter, not just briefly at last year's World Juniors when he sort of grabbed the job, but at two, if everybody remembers, two U-18 worlds, right, and was called up as a 17-year-old to start for that team in Germany as well. So that's, that I think will at least mean that he gets every opportunity to be the guy. He'll probably be the starter for the first game. But I think this is a situation with both players, especially with how well Jacobs played.

And Jacobs obviously played for a USHL title and played in big games and on big stages himself. I think you're going to see some kind of a rotation through the pre-tournament and right into to round robin. And their real decision will be in the quarterfinal. Corey, what do you think on Fowler? Yeah, I think I agree with Scott that I think you have to give Augustine the first game out of deference to everything he's done for USA hockey and that he's had a nice year, not a great year, but a nice year at Michigan State. I think there's a lot of similarity to the two players and how they play. I think both with their hockey sense are excellent.

I think Fowler is a little bit more athletic, personally, in terms of how it may not his body frame, but in terms of his side-to-side quickness, that's kind of why I think the player is going to be slightly more impactful. And just frankly, he's had a better season. And I actually may be biased in that I saw them play head to head when Michigan State played Boston College, and I thought Fowler was much better.

but just generally I think he's shown at the collegiate level he could be more impactful in steel games and I just think that's going to be an important variable when it comes to deciding who do you want in the hardest games because there's only going to be a couple of them from team USA and I think you got to look at all the evidence that they've seen of course over their careers but especially this season and I think this season Fowler I think has shown by a slim margin I think, frankly, as pro prospects, they grade out similarly. And as goalie talents, they're pretty similar. But I would lean Fowler for those reasons. Chris, you want to be our tiebreaker?

I'll break this tie by saying that we won't know the number one goalie until the quarterfinal. Yeah, no, here's what, but here's the situation. I mean, I look back to the last time, not the last time, but one of the times the U.S. won a gold medal. The Tyler Parsons, Joseph Wall tandem, which is hilarious because Jake Ottinger was the third goalie on that team. But you had Tyler Parsons and Joseph Wall playing head to head. They played, you know, split the games. And eventually they ultimately went with Parsons,

even though Wall played exceptionally well in that tournament as well. Go with Parsons. Parsons, Parsons gives, you know, basically wins them the tournament with two incredible shootout performances, in addition to Troy Terry. And it was funny. I actually asked the players this summer what your favorite world junior memory is. Both goalies said the Tyler Parsons shootout, while most of the forward said the Troy Terry shootout.

So that was interesting. But to Corey's point, and here's the thing, I mean, so David Lassand is the goalie coach. I think they're going to lean on him for a lot of the decision process here with Team USA. And he's been with Augustine the longest. So he knows about as well as anybody how well he can play. That being said, I do think that there is a belief that Jacob, that, that, they're going to go into this tournament. They're going to say, who's going.

And they're going to throw history out the window and they're going to basically go with whichever of these two guys is playing. Keep in mind, Augustine still has another year of eligibility. This is it for Fowler. That's not going to be part of the decision process, but it is part of, you know, the story of this, of this tandem. So it's going to come down to who's playing the best. And I think we'll see both of them play significant minutes in both pre-tournament games.

I think that, you know, the likelihood is, I would also expect, Jacob Fowler to play the most difficult of the preliminary round games. Like he might get the start against Slovakia, for instance, where that allows them to see him in that environment because they've already seen Trey Augustine do it. Now you have to see if Fowler can do it and if those guys can pass those tests. So my lean at this point, if we're just going based on this season and not thinking about just the history of the international history of Augustine who had one of the great performances in a gold medal game at last year's under 18 world championship. I mean, USA had no

business winning that game without him. I, you know, I do think that Fowler has a, has a legitimate chance to be the number one here. And the way that he's played this year, I think he's even, he's advancing. He's, he is progressing. So I like him. I'm going to go follow it. All right. Wow, that was a very dramatic unveil there. That's what we pay him for. You're welcome. That's what it's all about. we're taking a break right here. We're going to come right back and we're going to talk about the draft before we wrap things. All right, we are back and we are talking about what sounds like it might just be, Corey, the last NHL draft as we know it in Las Vegas, potentially.

It sounds like likely at this point at the sphere, but the headline there is really more, this could be the last NHL draft where the entire league is in one place. Yes. And, you know, we will discuss. the pros and cons of that decision and what that means for the league going forward. But as someone who's been to a lot of these drafts with the whole league and one plays with the three team tables that have now become 32 team tables and the whole atmosphere that comes with it, it is sad, you know, just anytime you have change, it's sad whether it's good

bad change. I have so many good memories of going to these NHL drafts and what this unique structure has brought to the league from an experience standpoint. And that other than the draft, we don't really have an equivalent in the NHL calendar where the whole league does come together, you know, like how baseball has the winter meetings, for example, or how MBA has. Summer League, this was the big hockey conference. is, you know, this was not just about the actual event, which is a draft, which obviously

I have a lot of interest. It's about what happens when you go around the draft is when, you know, frankly, the NHL takes over a city for a week. And you, you know, whether you're in the airport or at Tim Hordons or you're, you know, just walking around the streets, you see NHL stars, NHL managers, X Hall of Famers. And especially when you walk out at night, you sometimes see them in compromising positions. and it's great memories. And it's going to be sad to close that door.

Because when I'm going around to various tournaments and events and junior and college games, you're running into a lot of the same people. But the draft, I think, was really an opportunity for the entire league at all various levels of positions within teams and media agents to all come together. and it was really kind of a big hockey conference reunion, whatever you want to call it every year. And it's going to be very sad that we're not going to get that. And I hope that the NHL finds some other way

to create the kind of environment going forward, whether it's maybe blowing up the NHL Combined to something bigger. You know, there had been rumors, for example, the NHL Combine Blending with the U18 Worlds. If that does it, maybe they need a star of Summer League or some sort of major rookie showcase in September or something that creates that kind of environment again, if the NHL draft is not going to be it.

Well, I just think about kind of the shared memory that the draft can create when everyone in the league is on hand for these things, like the gasp when Detroit picks more at sight or when Montreal actually goes through and picks Yerai Slavkovsky. Was it Dustin Wolf the one year who had like all those people up in the upper bowl for him

and he's picked in the seventh round? These are moments that you can mention them to like any person in the league and they'll remember because they were in the same room. And I do think it loses something when you take the potential for that away. Everyone's just locked in on what they have going on their draft board on their screens, right? Right. And I think now you look at some of these other, quote, unquote, decentralized drafts.

You know, now we're talking about how football, basketball, and baseball run their drafts. And some of them are good DVD products and some of them can create these great moments and entertaining moments, even if they're somewhat different. and some of them are very not entertaining and do not have many moments. I think the NHL is hoping to create something like what the football draft is right now. I think obviously that's extremely unrealistic, given what a monster that football draft is right now. But I think what Chris Peters desperately hopes is as does not become the baseball draft.

The baseball draft sucks. It is fucking terrible. It is awful on TV. sorry for swearing kids, but I'll be honest. I hate this, okay? I'm just going to say it. I hate it. I think it sucks.

I think the NHL is stupid for doing this. I also think that the teams are being incredibly selfish about this. Understandably so. It's obviously a busy time. But for all the reasons you mentioned, Max, and for all the reasons Corey mentioned, I'm sure for the reasons that Scott's going to mention as well, the draft is one of the things,

the NHL does absolutely right. It is one of their best events and to say, we are going to strip a lot of the life from it. Because part of the allure for fans going there, it's contact with the coaches and the GMs. And like, it's great for us from a media standpoint, but it's also great for the fans. You get to see these people up close and personal.

You might go up to Joe Sacken and say, who you pick and Joe? And he'll laugh and he'll not say a word to you. still, you know, you did that. And that's part of your, your whole experience. And I also think, you know, for the players, for the teams, there are going to be missed opportunities with this just in terms of logistics, whether it's those last second meetings, whether it's, you know, those in face-to-face trade conversations, different things like that,

which probably, you know, now can still happen virtually or over the phone or whatever, and it won't matter. But the NHL, like to everyone's point here, has to find a way to kind of keep that festive environment I just think with a decentralized draft, now, okay, all the players are there. And then Gary, we see the same thing happen. You know, Gary Bettman or whoever they invite to announce the pick and take the picture with the player.

I mean, I think we're just losing so much from it. And if it does become the baseball draft, then it makes our jobs harder because I think a lot fewer people will care about it. What I find interesting is the two reasons they cited for why they want to do it. I can see the reasons, you know, I talked to a lot of NHL people about this decision, and a lot of them did prefer from a pure draft operation standpoint. Not all, mind you.

It was about a 50-50 when I did pull NHL people on what they preferred, honestly. Some did prefer the live in-person draft because it's easier to communicate with other teams for trade purposes. And they just love the experience and all the reasons we just talked about. But some of them did say it was very hard to plan to make last-minute decisions or pivots or talk about. trade scenarios when you have to kind of like, you know, hide, you know, hide, you know, your lips when you're talking, there's cameras on you. It's very loud. Things are right next to you as, and you can't really communicate with your scouts as well. So some of them did really prefer to stay at home. But when the league cited the reasons why we're making this change,

again, the league hasn't officially announced that what we've seen the reasons get reported through various media members is that one was a cost reason, which makes sense. You're flying in a bunch of people for a week, it costs a lot of money. And two was the proximity to free agency. The proximity to free agency to me doesn't make any sense. Because while I understand, I understand it is close to free agency, just because clearly traditions can be broken because they are breaking this tradition, free agency does not need to be on July 1st.

It could be a week later and nothing will change. The NHL offseason is quite long. There are many dead weeks where nothing happens. you can push it back by a couple of days and the world won't end for these players and teams other than these hockey people may not get as many days in their summer cottages more or less. And in terms of the costs, while I do respect that argument, I do think it's somewhat interesting that on the, you know, after saying that we're not going to do in-person drafts going forward because of how expensive it is,

to just drop a gigantic bundle of cash to reserve the sphere seems like an interesting decision to me. Also, don't you still have to fly a bunch of people into the city of your draft ops room too? Like all your international people, you're still flying them somewhere, right? I will say too, on the point of the challenges of making trades on the draft floor, I do understand the practicalities of that. Ultimately, at the end of the day, this is an entertainment product. and hockey people are incredibly private people. And one of the great benefits of the draft is that you were put for a long time,

they've put the entertainment first at the expense of the procedure. They're now prioritizing the procedure. But one of the beauties of it was that it was the only time of the year that we got to see Steve Eiserman and Lou Amarillo and people who for the other 364 days of the year give us nothing in terms of relative to the NBA and the way that insider culture works in the NBA and access to information works in the NBA, all of that. This is the one time of the year where fans in the NHL got to see how the sausage was made. And especially with people like Lamarillo and Eisenman and the very, very private people that run some of these teams.

So I do think there's something that's going to feel empty about whatever they do, even if they do it incredibly well. And then I was discouraged in terms of what it could look like. I was discouraged by the pandemic TV draft that they did. It was one of the worst products that they've ever put on television. And they were a mess in terms of the procedure of it. The procedure of it was terrible. And it took way too long. And nobody knew what they were doing.

So they're going to they're going to have to get a lot sorted. That is a great point. Yeah. I do hope they learned from their mistakes in those drafts that. Day one, you can do the back and forth and make the big announcement and kind of milk those picks if you want to. But the second, if you're going to do day two of the draft, which is round two through seven, and you want to have Bill Daly announce every single one of the second round picks, it's just not practical with 32 teams a different location.

What is practical is if you do want to do it that way, because I understand the round two players are different than the round six players. and the higher town level, more significant to organizations. If you really want to do that way, it needs to be a three-day event, just like how the football draft does it. Otherwise, it basically needs to be when teams enter the name into their computers, because that's how they draft the players, even though there's an announcement that players are drafted before the announcement happens after they input the players in.

The second that happens, it just pops up onto a TV screen, and then the next team does the same thing. And that's how that needs to roll. Otherwise, it's going to be another eight-hour. day two and it's really good at drag or the baseball draft which does uh you know draft one and two on the same night and then the rest on day two that it's largely i think they have just kind of like you know vague set studio show going while the name scroll don't don't even don't even say that don't even say that max they have to do that's that's brutal that's gonna be like an eight-hour

day for us for like two rounds well you just proposed three days so i just kind of figured one It's three days. You've gotten even worse scheduling problem in terms of the challenge of the Like if they're reluctant and free agency and everything else. Then you add a day of work in between for them. And it makes it pushes free agency debates back another day, right? So I don't know. And I do respect the pushback on doing anything the way baseball does it because

baseball draft is the worst. It is absolutely the worst. And I think hockey's at risk of that. Even as we talk about all three of these teams, you know, whichever way you do it. There's a certain appeal to the football and the basketball drafts in that so much of the pool are players that these fans are already

so familiar with. They know. Yeah. And they're going to be in the league the next year in many cases. And in baseball and hockey, it's not in the case. This is why I think this could potentially backfire on the league. Because like they're going to do this big event in the sphere, for example,

and that they're hopeful that this is going to be it's the first sporting event in the sphere. It's going to be a big deal. But like after Celebrity goes, nobody knows who the hell is other, are the rest of these picks? You know, we do obviously. Our listeners do. Our fans are going to do.

Shout out to the listeners. But the people walking through Vegas have no idea who Sam Dickinson is and who Artenblum-Lubbiz shoot-off is. And I think that it's, I think that they make it a tougher event to sell in the sphere. But I also see the sphere is very cool. and I'm looking forward to seeing how with it. And I've never been in it. I've only walked by it.

But I hope I'm looking forward to seeing what they do with it. In terms of just a TV product where it is decentralized and you're literally just watching it to see who's getting picked. I think most sports drafts falter after the fifth or seventh pick in terms of actual fan interest. But in the NHL draft like the baseball draft, when you're not talking about immediate impact, if there is no we have a trade to announce if there is which there still will be but it's yeah i think it's more interesting when you see you know iserman talking to lamarillo on the floor when you can yeah and to the player in the in the in coming down down the the the steps and and going to put his jersey on well you i don't know it's i think it's going to be a much tougher sell as a tv product

opposed to the NFL draft when you draft a quarterback and you know that he's going to be your starting quarterback next season. Yeah. I'll also say it does cost us what I found to be the single best moment of the 2023 draft, which was Kyle Davidson getting interviewed on the street in Nashville by someone who did not know that he was Kyle Davidson and asking him if he thought the lottery was rigged and him answering the question. That was honestly.

Yeah, I just love like the whole, we got Kyle Davidson's camera presence just incredible, by the way, on that whole in that whole thing. But yeah, but you're right. And like, I just think that they're, we're losing so much. We're using, losing the uniqueness of the draft. And, and it, it bothers me a lot that they went this way. Um, because I, I do think that, as I said, it's something that they do very well. It's something that everyone, no one has ever complained about the draft experience. Have you ever heard not, not even, I mean, I get it. There are some GMs where it's more difficult. The vast majority of people, maybe there are seven people who didn't like it this way.

Like honestly. And or maybe there's 32 and they're all the owners. But what it is beyond ridiculous to take something you do well and say, let's change it. Because even the second day sucks compared to the first day. And so now you want to make that basically just keep going because, you know, I don't know. I just think it's, I'm probably madder than I should be about this. but I'm really I feel the solution is just pushing

free agency back because on the second day of the draft almost all of the teams not only, you know, just leave a stadium, but they leave the city almost immediately after the draft is over. They all jump on a plane,

they head home, go back to, you know, some of the scouts will hang around because they don't make where to go, but all the management ties have to leave right away to prep for free agency.

So I do get that tight window and the stress that puts them under to make major, decisions that but I just don't see why we can't just push it back a couple more days. And to preserve what, as everyone here has said, has been a very positively received thing by the NHL

where it seems like the only criticism of the event is coming from ownership and the managers. Right your senators, Americans, and write your parliamentarians or whatever you call them in Canada. sorry Scott, you'll have to fill me in on that. But right, just let's get a letter writing campaign going. It's 1957.

I was just going to say, if there is the positive, how about Montreal into Nashville, into Vegas as a sender? Ooh, man. Everyone but my liver likes this. Yeah. We could have done Nashville every year. I've been like, yep.

Yeah, you're right. Minus the travels home, though. I think that the troubles that people had getting out of Nashville, to put the final coffin in this whole thing. I got out just fine. America, baby. But no, but you know what? Like, yeah, last, last thing, last point for me on this.

And I really do hope that the sphere thing works and that it works so well that it is kind of more evidence that what they're doing is really dumb. I do, like, I can't wait for Florida ceiling celebrating high likes. I think that's going to be awesome. Seeing the giant Artem Levschenov face just kind of take enveloping. the entire Las Vegas strip is going to be awesome. Like we'll have Cole, Cole Eiserman shooting a puck, you know,

probably through the Vegas strip somehow. It's going to be, so I think it'll be a great spectacle. I also think it's going to be a tremendous reminder of what we're losing. And then I hope that the NHL takes that seriously. Well said. That is going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show prospect series.

You can catch more of Chris over at Flow hockey and his podcast, talking hockey sense. And of course, You can get Scott and Corey at The Athletic. Follow us on YouTube at YouTube.com slash at The Athletic Hockey Show. And from right now through the end of the year,

you can give a one-year subscription to The Athletic for 1999 or a two-year subscription for $39.99. When you visit Theathletic.com slash hockey show, give the gift of Corey Promin and Scott Wheeler this holiday season. We'll talk to you soon.