The Athletic Hockey Show - Maple Leafs get No. 1 pick in NHL Draft Lottery surprise | Instant Reaction

Episode Date: May 6, 2026

The Toronto Maple Leafs entered Tuesday night’s NHL Draft Lottery with the No. 5 pick, and the possibility of losing their first round pick altogether, and ended up with the No. 1 pick and their choice of top-rated prospects Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, and Chase Reid. The guys discuss the Leafs’ options at first overall, what the San Jose Sharks could do after jumping up to No. 2, the Vancouver Canucks dropping to No. 3, and more.This episode was recorded live at 7:30pm ET on May 5, 2026.Hosts: Max Bultman, Corey Pronman, and Scott WheelerWith: FloHockey’s Chris PetersExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris FlanneryWatch full episodes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowJoin our Discord Server: https://discord.gg/VTm9VjkFSubscribe to The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside the athletics, Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler, and Flow Hockies, Chris Peters for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Our live reaction to the 2026 NHL draft lottery, and it is a doozy. The Toronto Maple Leafs are picking first overall, Corey. They pretty much had to have it. If they weren't going to win the lottery, they were likely going to forfeit this pick to Boston as a condition. in the Brandon Carlo trade, and they move all the way up to number one. Yeah, obviously, a very interesting draft lottery for them.

They could have lost the pick altogether. They could have picked five, but they end up picking at the one spot in the incoming management group, get to make a very interesting decision here on what direction they want to go in to start the next iteration of the Toronto Maple Leafs. And there's so many angles we can discuss now with this pick. You know, obviously this is a team that's thought they were in win now mode, but they weren't this past year. Does I lend you to take players who you think might be more NHL ready than not?

This is also an organization that has, you know, seeing issues with depth over the years. And now, like, at the premium positions at center, you know, John Tavares is getting older. They've been dying for premium defense talent for a long time. You know, and there's a lot of really good defensemen in this year's draft. and of course, and I'm sure we'll be beating this drum a little bit, they've built their team in a very specific way over the last decade.

You know, they had, you know, when they were making their great regular season runs and obviously their unsuccessful playoff runs, they had these three, four really high-end skill guys in their lineup, you know, a really dangerous power play, but lack depth and lacked the ability to play at even strength consistently in the playoffs. Do they turn to a 5-11 winger in someone like a Gavin McKen, who I think you can make reasonable analogies to Mitch Marner at the same age. You could probably argue Marner a little bit better, you know, two-way player.

McKenna is probably even a higher level of skill than Marner. But, you know, it would basically be trying to build in a very similar fashion. You're envisioning a power play with Matthews and Nylander and McKenna. And that being the crux of how you generate your offense. So it'll be really interesting to see what they do. And there's a lot of pressure on this team. And as well, they don't have a first round pick for two more years after this. So this pick is safe to say, it's extremely important.

They get this one right. Very important. And how about the last 24 hours in Toronto? You've got the awkward, uncomfortable, testy moments yesterday in the press conference. You're entering into the organization. staring down potentially losing a sixth or seventh overall pick to a division rival. And now a day later, Matt Sundeen, a former first overall pick, though not to the Leaps, is sitting on TV accepting basically the best news imaginable on day two of his job.

I find it amazing that the Maple Leafs won the draft lottery this year for the reason Scott just mentioned and because of what Corey just talked about. we're talking about two marginal, you know, like, like wings that have holes in their game. It's not like, listen, Gavin McKenna is a superstar talent. There's a lot of things he does offensively well, but there are holes in the game. And the thing is is that, you know, this is not a year. The Maple Leafs are getting a no-doubter when they had Austin Matthews. You know, this is not a year where they're getting that.

And it's kind of funny that we're talking about, you know, two kind of wings that, you know, And I'd say Stenberg is the more competitive between the two gets a little bit more to the interior than McKenna does. But I just find it fascinating that, you know, the Maple Leafs win the draft lottery this year. And it's, and at the top of the lineup is two guys that either could be the heir apparent to Mitch Marner, which, and we saw how badly they missed him last year. But, but now, like, honestly, you know, is this the best outcome for Toronto to win it this year, essentially? Well, that I think is really interesting, Chris, because when we talk about the the Marner factor to all of this, right, there's one part of me that says, well, I think that

their build had them being a consistent hundred point team. And if you take the playmaking winger and you bump him down from what Mitch Marner was making to an entry level contract, it actually does leave you a lot of room to address some of the deficiencies the Toronto Maple Leafs previously had. The issue is, Corey, is that I don't think Gavin McKenna can step in on day one and be Mitch Marner. I don't mean, he should hope to be Mitch Marner by year three. three by year four. We've seen players like Jack Hughes, like Alexei Lafranier, and those are, you know, two different end products, but harsh transitions to the NHL game. Gavin McKenna played college hockey this year, I think, to help himself with that transition. He got better as the year

went along. But is he ready to step in on day one and be a difference maker for the Toronto Maple Leafs? It's a great question. I think McKenna's biggest advocates will point to Jack Hughes is probably a, you know, a median case development path where it could take a little bit of time. Mind you, he's, I think, like, 10 months older than Hughes was going into his draft. So he's a little bit further along. I think, you know, I think the people who like McKinnett are thinking maybe he could be somewhere between like 45 to 55 points next year in the NHL, which would be a really good player. But obviously, it's not martyr. And maybe you're hoping by year two, year three, he can get to that level of offense.

But it's a fair question. The other part of that, too, even though if he could step in, and I think Stenberg has kind of indicated he wants to come North America or he wants to compete for an NHL job, is these other players like Caleb Malhotra and Chase Reed and Albert Smiths and Carson Carls and Keenan Verhoff are all very likely going to play college hockey next year. So these non-wingerers are at least a year away, if not two years away, for meaningfully helping the Toronto Maple Leafs if they were to go in a different direction

and I mean Scott lives in that city he can give me an idea if I'm mistaken but this doesn't seem like the most patient fan base the most patient organization to say we've got number one pick just you know he's going to go do the Owen power route though he's going to take another year

in college and maybe by year two year three he's going to start playing real minutes for us no that's not it doesn't seem like the most patient ownership now either. There's been a change in ownership in Toronto in recent years and Rogers has acquired more and more of the stake. They will soon have 100% control over MLSC. And from ownership on down, it seems like priority number one is making sure that they don't lose Austin Matthews and

William Nealander in the coming years. And that means pushing and pushing and pushing. And that's, I think, what John Cheyke's marching orders have been here as well. And that's Sandean. The message from everybody on down is we've got to get this back on track. I believe Austin turns 29 in September. Neelander's already 30. Those are your two guys. So you now have another piece of the puzzle to pair with them. It's ironic after all these years of talking about the core four

that we now might have some different version of the core four here in Toronto. But the reality is that it's go time. And so I think there is something to not wanting to wait. two, three, four players. It probably takes a defenseman just out of the equation all together with what we've seen from young defensemen trying to break into the league in recent years. It's a lot easier to do it as a forward. And it probably takes players like Caleb Malhotra and guys who are on different paths than maybe a Stenberg or a McKennaar who want to come over and play in the NHL next year. We know that Stenberg hasn't signed his contract,

hasn't reupped his contract, I should say, with Rolanda. And those two names in particular, I think, or what you zero in on from an outside perspective, not knowing anything about the way that the Leafs brass are thinking right now. And then on top of that, they have said that Leach is going to run the draft board. So this is very much, we'll see how true that is, but this is very much in the hands of an amateur scouting staff that are also awaiting contracts in many cases.

And there's a lot at play with the Leafs Amateur Department and decisions that they need to make on all sorts of staff. And now they go into the draft with a critical decision, for the next decade plus of this organization. My question, and this goes to what Max just said, too, is if McKenna comes in, he's like a 70, 80 point guy right away, that changes things a little bit. But if he comes in and he's like, let's say, a 45, the 50 point, you know, winger,

does that really move the needle for Toronto? And does that really change the core issues that we're talking about here in terms of, you know, near-term contention? And am I alone in thinking that even 40s? or 50 points might feel optimistic? No. Well, I think he's going to have a really tough time in the lead next year. Like similar to what Jack Hughes went through.

What did Jack have like 26 points or something? Yeah, it wasn't good. Jack Hughes didn't get to ride shotgun with Austin Matthews still on the top. No. No. No. Is he, yeah. Is that going to be where you put them?

I mean, you know, like I think. And so with all that in mind, too, you know, we're talking about this. And if it wasn't the Leafs, I feel like we wouldn't really necessarily be having this discussion. But, you know, I threw it out on Twitter, probably trolling a little bit, but still thinking about it a little bit more is how far away. No, I'm not saying trade the pick. No, no, that wouldn't go over well. But how far away are the D from McKenna and Stenberg in your guys' eyes? How far away are those players?

because Chica said recently, you know, yesterday in one of his many interviews that, you know, didn't, you know, where he wasn't personally attacked, was we need to look at the blue line. Like, and that's anybody that with eyes can look at the Toronto say, we need, we need help on D. Is there any world in which that is an alternative option for, and this is just a devil's advocate thing? I'm not saying the Leaf should do this, but is there a world where that makes sense to either of you guys? I think it does. I think those D men are like pretty, there's some couple of those D men that are pretty much a tie with McKinna for me or like a marge or like a like a half step below him.

Yeah. Depending on your evaluation of them. And maybe they, whether Toronto agrees disagree with that, obviously is the more critical factor. But, you know, Max said earlier, they could always just take McKinna and use that and go out and get a D

externally. I'm not sure who that would be. He doesn't seem like there's some premier defenseman and free agency. they can just go after. No. And one would argue that, and Chaka has actually said this when he was the Arizona Gia, that he looks at the draft for what kind of pieces he can get. You know, he looks at what's harder to get on the open market when he was talking about

what he would like the draft. So that could be a variable in trying to figure out who the first pick is. That's the thing. Go ahead, Scott. No, I just think my worry. that, if I'm sitting in that chair, would be that you don't know, it's the same conversation we always have about drafting for need. Let's say Chase Reed and these guys are two, three years away. You don't know what your needs are going to be two, three years from now. They could be

completely different than if you're going to have two or three free agencies between now and then, you're going to have two or three trade deadlines between now and then. It could take, even after those guys break in in two, two and a half years, it could take them time to establish them, themselves. With some of these D, you're often talking four or five years down the line before they're making a real impact in the league. Even Lane Hudson, it took him three years before he was impacting the league, well, not three years, but pretty close. Simon Edmondson, you go down the list. It takes time with those guys, and I don't know whether they have that, and I don't know whether they can risk playing that long game with hypothetical needs in the here and now.

Just take the player that can help you sooner. And if you think that player is Gavin or Evar or whoever, or if it's a defenseman, make that calculus on the defenseman. But it feels to me like that player probably wouldn't be one of the D. I think Chris's point is more like when baseball tie goes to the runner. Is it if it's tie or close to a tie between the winger and the D or the winger in the center, but let's say it's one of the D, that I think there'd be a really strong case

to take the defenseman. And I would agree with that, and that's how I kind of view the situation. I know Scott usually is a board now. You don't view it that way. You view there's a distinction between McKenna Stenberg and the rest of the class. And I think that's the critical question.

Yeah. I mean, there's risk in all the players. I mean, there's no Schaefer this year. Every player has holes this year that I've seen anyways. But I think that's a critical question. is like what's the gap between those players that that's think the most interesting question not you know obviously i think mcken and stanberg are more likely to produce in the near term all right let's transition this away from the leaves we'll have a lot more time over the next month and a half

to talk about the number one pick the number two pick is arguably just as interesting here because at the top of the show i said if they didn't win the lottery they were probably given this pick to boston that is because the san jose sharks won the second spot in the lottery jumping up in the draft. So they're going to pick second. That would have pushed the Leafs down to six otherwise, at least six otherwise, depending on who had won instead of them. But San Jose Ozarks are a team that has a lot going for them already. Of course, they have Macklin-Sellebrini. They have Will Smith. They have Sam Dickinson on the back end, but they do kind of lack that running mate for him, that more offensive defenseman. And at the two spot, that's a pretty good

place to find one, Corey. Yeah. And when you think of their power play now long term with Celabrini with what Will Smith, you figure Michael Misa is going to get there at some point. You know, obviously, I don't know if Turner Shev is a top power play guy or not, but obviously he had a very impressive year this year in San Jose. It does feel like they're in a situation here where they have needed a premium young defenseman, a guy with high-end skill for quite a few years now into this rebuild. And it does feel like the stars have kind of aligned. here at the two spot.

And I don't know who that player is going to be. I don't know whether it's Keaton Verhoff or Chase Reed or Albert Smith or Carson Carl's or Dexon Rudolph. You know, there's, I think there's a variety of ways they could go. But it does feel like this is their time here to get that defenseman and to really assemble one of the most promising young cores I can remember over the last 10,

15 years. It doesn't always work out. You know, we raved about Buffalo's core for so long until it finally kind of turned to something. But it's also, if they leave you with a Chase Reed, you could kind of look at them in the same way you looked at a really young Colorado Avalanche organization 10 years ago and be like, hey, this is a lot of talent. And if it goes well, like, there's a lot of really good things that can happen in San Jose. Is it read with a bullet? Like, is Reed the top D with a bullet here?

I mean, there's, there's a cluster of really good players, Carson, Carls, Daxon Rudolph, Albert Smiths, Keaton Verhoff, of course. Like, there's a big group of but we're talking, it seems like, mostly about Reed. No, I don't think it's him with a bullet, but I think he and Rudolph are the two best candidates to run a power play. I don't think we, anyone here envisions Sam Dickinson running a first power play unit in the NHL. I think even there's some questions if he's running a second power play unit in the

NHL right now. So I think if you're looking for that guy who'll be a 50, 60 point of heavy minutes offenseman, I feel like all signs are pointing towards Reed right now, but it's not a sure think. Yeah, I would go with Reed as well. for me, that seems to make the most sense. I think he checks the most boxes for you. You know, the sharks are going to be a team that's going to beat a lot of teams in transition with the way that they're set up.

And you need really good mobile defensemen that can move pox. And I think that that's what Reid does. I think he's also a guy that's going to be involved in the rush. And, you know, I just think that he is a really nice fit for them. I think this is a good situation for San Jose to find themselves in where the pressure is off a little bit for that first overall pick. I think a lot of people have said in the past, you know, I'd rather pick two or three just to, you know,

to have that, have, you know, have some of those decisions made for me because there are tough decisions to be made. But I do think that Chase Reed checks the most boxes for me among those guys. I think a lot of these defensemen in our grouping with Reed, I do feel like there's been at least, at least for me, a little bit of separation between him and the others. I think each of them have holes and Reed does as well. But to me, I just think I look at the way that the sharks are being built and I see a hand-to-glove fit with that particular player. Is there much difference between him and Lev Shunov, same point?

That's a great question. I think he thinks it better. Yeah. I think there's obviously distinctions. It's not an overlap, but there's some rhymes there, I would say, between the big... for sure toolsy offensive tilted defenseman yeah and i i i think i i'd lean that chases you know overall skill level is is a is a cut like a slight cut above um but not you know like but let you know i i think there's a lot there and i his his defensive urgency is a little better too so i think

that's fair that helps um but yeah but i mean i i do think that this is uh like the sharks are in a really good spot here. Like, say you go Stenberg, you go or you go with one of these D. You know, I think, you know, heck, you know, you can go Malhotra. Like I, I feel like there are so many good options at two. And I actually like all of them a little bit better just for where the sharks are right now than I did McKenna in that spot. I think the ultimate question is, does McKenna or Stenberg make the most sense for San Jose at two? Because they're going to have an opportunity to take one of them.

I don't. I, to me, Will Smith is close enough to being McKenna. Kenna that I don't think you need to double up with that. Stenberg could bring a little more kind of that like inner driving skilled winger, but I think the need at D is enough that if it's even close, I think you've got to take the D for San Jose. That's how I would look at it. All right, let's go through the other top teams here because pretty much everybody slid

as a result of the very top team slid because Toronto and San Jose jump up. So Vancouver is going to pick at three, Chicago at four, the New York Rangers five, Calgary, six, Seattle, seven, Winnipeg eight, the Florida. the Panthers pick at nine. Do they make that pick? We'll see. Nashville at 10. St. Louis has 11 and 15, New Jersey, 12, the Islanders 13, Columbus 14, Washington, 16. Those big markets in that three to five cluster, Scott, Vancouver, Chicago, New York, who should be the most disappointed at how this shook out for them? If you're the Vancouver Canucks, I think you have to be, excuse me, you have to be at least a little disappointed. Just forget how close the players are at the top,

just being able to control the board is so valuable. And from a sales pitch, being able to sell a first overall pick if you're that ownership, if you're that organization, sell that hope, I think is losing out on that piece of the puzzle, whether you like the player as much at three as you did at one. That hurts. The Blackhawks are fine. The Blackhawks are going to get another important piece to add to their ridiculous number, of important pieces that they have to figure out here over the

over the next few years. I don't have much sympathy for sort of the situation that they're in. But I don't know. I do feel a little bit for the Canucks organization. I'm sure that that fan base was at the edge of their seat watching the balls go. You saw their odds shot up a couple of times during each of the draws where it felt like it was going to go their way. then it doesn't go their way and now they're going to get a very good player at three, whether it's Caleb Mount Hultra and that sort of center to build around or another one of

those D that we just talked about off the top or another Swede in Yvars-Denberg. There are great options there. I think we all like all of those players and maybe even are partial to them in Corey's case to Gavin McKenna. But they could have sold Gavin McKenna. Gavin could have been something for them to get sort of really galvanized. around and get excited about. Criticism subside of the player.

Just that piece of it, it's got to be a bit of a sour feeling for that organization, top down. And now they've got to figure out all sorts of stuff there, including hiring their next general manager. Yeah. And, you know, I feel for Vancouver as well. But I also think that there's potentially a blessing in disguise here. Of the teams that we're going to pick first,

I really feared Vancouver for Gavin McKenna's sake, just because I felt like he was going to be needed too much there, whereas now he's going to potentially go into a situation where he's a little more insulated, which I think is better for a player like him and will help ease him and maybe set him up better for success. What I think for Vancouver here is now you're in a position where I think you've got a number of good options available to you. They're not the best option necessarily, but they're still going to be pretty good. And this is a position where I wonder if a Caleb Malhotra makes sense. I think as a guy now is he as exciting enough?

Does he going to get you out of your seat the same way that maybe a Stenberg could? I don't know, but I just watched him throughout the playoffs. And I saw a player that, you know, potentially could be a cornerstone piece for a team that is maybe not the star, but a guy that is going to be a pretty significant piece for a good team. I think he's a very complete player. I think he plays the game at a pretty high level. That's a player that I would look at and say, hey, this. guy could be part of our new identity. This guy could be part of our future. He's one of those

players, I feel strongly, might, would be able to handle that. Obviously, there's the familial, you know, a relationship with the organization. I think that's a player, you know, he told us a long time ago, like, that was his team. That was, that was the team that he, that he loved as a kid. I think that he would relish that opportunity. So I don't know if that's going to end up being the pick. I don't know if that makes the most sense for them, but I do think that Caleb Melhotra, we start having that conversation right there at three. I will say, like, they already have Braden Coots and I think Melhulter is a better player than Coots, but if you don't think Malholtra can be a one C, and maybe you do, I mean, he's had

a phenomenal playoffs or had a phenomenal playoffs there. Like, they're early enough in their rebuild. They're going to be picking high. I feel confident in saying a lot of times, they're going to have other chances to get the center. They might be one of the rare teams that I would endorse saying, just take whoever your best player is regardless of what you see as positional value, because you're going to have a lot of cracks at positional value, I think.

Is that fair? Is it mean? Yeah, I think so. I also think, like, who they're getting a three is not substantially much different than who they be getting at one or two. Like, the only teams that saw a massive delta today in terms of what San Jose and, frankly, Toronto not falling out of the top five. Like, those, those are the two, you know, obvious because they were the two lottery winners.

But in terms of the most significant things that happened to organizations today, that was at, like, you. yeah, it'll suck if they don't get McKenna. But I feel, I mean, we're literally having this Stenberg versus McKenna debate. And there seems like a pretty decent chance Denver could be there at three. Yes. Yes. Yeah, very real chance.

So, like, I don't know. I think they're fine. I mean, or at least no less fine than they were 24 hours ago. For sure. I just, I think most, most years, if we were debating a six three two-way center and a 5-11 scoring winger, I think most of us are pounding the table for the six-three two-way center. I think Vancouver is kind of uniquely suited to be able to say, you know what, you need talent, period. Just take it where it's there.

Right. Obviously, there's other variables other than that to consider, but I get what you're saying. And I think that, you know, I think that's kind of interesting debates that we're going to have in the coming weeks here is where are the lines in the draft? When we get to our consensus board, what we're going to do in a few weeks, I think trying to tier this draft is going to be a very fascinating exercise. Yeah, absolutely. We will have a lot more to come, including a full kind of lottery. Once we've had a minute to sit with our thoughts, we'll do it again later this week for the Friday show. So we'll have more there.

But for now, that's going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect series. We'll talk to you soon.