The Athletic Hockey Show - NHL opening night has arrived, Dom Lusczyszyn talks projected standings, player tiers, and much more, plus Multiple Choice Madness to close the show

Episode Date: October 12, 2021

First, Ian and Hailey talk about opening night of the 2021-22 NHL season, how great it is for the game of hockey to be back on ESPN, and debuting on TNT, this year, how Wayne Gretzky will fare as a TV analyst, ideal opening night matchups, and more.Then, The Athletic’s own Dom Lusczyszyn joins the show to discuss his projected season standings and player tiers, which fan based is the most annoyed with him about his analysis, why his model appears to be overrating the Seattle Kraken, Metro Division playoff locks, potential biggest disappointments, who drives the bus on The Perfect Line and the Boston Bruins, big contracts for Nick Suzuki and Mika Zibanejad, and more.Plus, to close things out, Ian and Hailey run through a series of Multiple Choice Madness questions including certainties about this coming hockey season, the most unpredictable team in the league right now, and who will have a better statistical season, Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin.There’s still time to join The Athletic Hockey Show’s official fantasy hockey pool on OfficePools.com: http://www.officepools.com/invite/classic/m/HAFE2H6QAnd, right now, you can save 50% on an annual subscription to The Athletic when you visit http://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

All right, after taking a Monday off to celebrate Thanksgiving north of the border, we're happy to be back for this Tuesday edition of the Athletic Hockey Show. It's Ian Mendez. Haley Salveen with you for the next hour or so to tee up opening night, opening week, in the NHL. Coming up, our analytics and numbers guru, senior writer Domloos Chichen, is going to join us. Talk about preseason predictions, which fan base has maybe given him the hardest time. Talk about his player tiers, hockey pools, betting lines, all of that fun stuff. We'll even pick his brain on the Montreal Canadian signing a core piece to a significant deal on Tuesday.

We'll also do a little check-in in our fantasy hockey pool teams as we're getting set to kick off our athletic hockey show, Office Pool's Challenge, and we'll find out if Healy did her homework or not. And in multiple-choice badness, we'll try to figure out which team might be the hardest one to get a read on before the regular season launches, but before we get to all of that, Haley, we feel like we need to clap back on our American counterparts, which, by the way, first of all, thank you so much, Craig Custin's and Sean Gentile for switching shows with us this week because it was a holiday in Canada.

But if you listen to the athletic hockey show on Monday, you would have heard terms like fake holiday and I don't know what that is and they just eat whatever they want. We just want to set the record straight here, Haley. What's so hard to understand? You pick when you want to eat your family dinner. You set the record straight. Sorry, I'm just pissed off.

Yeah. No, it's just, listen, I get it. The Americans do up Thanksgiving probably bigger than Christmas. So I get it. But don't act like we can't have our own thing up here. Yeah. And like it's, anyway, we enjoyed it. We had turkey.

We had our Monday off. And that's that. Sorry, we don't get a random Thursday off to sit around and watch the Detroit Lions play. Like, that's not the way it works here. Like, imagine we just got Thursdays off. Was there CFL on this weekend? I don't really know. I don't know. Maybe there was. I think there was games. I think Bill Daly roasted us too. Did you hear? He was like, oh, I were texted one of the guys at the office asking what CFL games were on today. I was like, Bill, no. Yeah. Whatever. Come on. You know what? No. It's not confusing. There's nothing confusing about Canadian Thanksgiving. No. You have the day off. The holiday's on the Monday. So yeah, Monday's the Thanksgiving, but you'll have your dinner on like Saturday or Sunday. Whatever works best for your family. Maybe you do it Monday. But sometimes people work on Tuesday. So like I don't want to make a turkey and then clean up and then have to get up early for work. So let's do it on Saturday. day. I don't see what's so confusing about that. No. They're just trying to be rude because they had to work on a Monday instead of a Tuesday.

Yeah. So that's how to explain it. We'll take our Monday post back. Yeah. We'll be back at it Monday as usual. But hey, look, we got a lot to get to. Like I said, Dom Luce Chichen's going to drop by in a little bit, set up the season. And I do want to talk about, though, Haley, opening night. And this is a big deal because the NHL is back on ESPN. And I think that's a great thing. It really is. I think you get the NHL back on ESPN. You're going to get more eyeballs on it.

You're going to get more cross-promotion. And you're going to get TNT as well. And they've decided to go with two matchups on Tuesday night. One is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning at home to unveil their banner and take on the Crosby-Lis, Malkin-Lis Pittsburgh Penguins. And then the other one, we got Vegas at home to Seattle. Cracket or not opening at home. People might think first ever cracking game it's at home. Not the case. Let me ask you this first, Haley. Like if you were the schedule wizard and they said,

Hey, Haley, you get to pick one game that you want to feature for everybody to see coast to coast. We're launching with new networks. We're going to hype this thing up. What are you picking? I'll be honest with you. I think I would go Florida, Tampa. Because I think Florida, Tampa last year might have been the most entertaining, intense. fun playoff series that we had. I think you're trying to, like if you're trying to hook new people into the game, I would show them a couple of games

from that playoff series last year and be like, this is what our game could be. So that would be my vote, but I don't know, like if there's other votes out there, I would go with that as the matter. Yeah, no, I mean, we're driving the Panthers bus. We had Joel Quenville on,

like that series was good for hockey in Tampa. Yeah. And in South Florida and, you know, Sean Jantilly, who we don't like actually had a good piece when that playoff series happened where he talked to people. They were like, that was my first ever hockey game. And he went and like found those people who that was their first hockey game ever. And they were like, I've been missing out. So it's hard to to bet against Tampa, Florida, because I just think it's good for the game. And even their preseason

game was like a disaster, like not a disaster, but you know, it was they went at it. I'm just trying to think if there's any other good rivalries. Like, you know, a Battle of Alberta could be great. But, you know, sometimes the Battle of Alberta is awesome. And other times it's just like, ah, that was kind of lame. Like, there's been Battle of Alberta games last year. And maybe it was because there was, like, 10 of them that was like, I'm super bored. Like, I'd rather watch the Flames play the Winnipeg Jets or something.

But just get me like a really good rivalry series and put it on a good network, National TV. Let's do it. Yeah. So the other one I would think of would be Islanders Rangers. I think that has the potential to be super fun this year. I think the Rangers are at a point where they might be ready to challenge for a playoff spot and obviously the biggest media market out there.

And then the Islanders are a perennial Stanley Cup contender. And I kind of like Colorado. Like so like I would think to myself, if I'm ESPN or TNT, I would think like I got Nate McKinnon who's arguably a top five player in the game. Like how do I sell? I would look at how do I sell the best players in the game right off the hop. I think that's what we don't do a good enough job in the NHL. It's all about the team.

And I think we need to sell a little bit more of the star powers. So especially on a night where like Pittsburgh would be fun. If they had Malkin and Crosby, I think this would be a lot more fun. But no Malkin, no Crosby. It's like what is Tristan Jari going to do tonight? Boy, is there anybody under more pressure than Tristan Jari in the blue paint? this year? I don't know. I mean, but like who's who's pushing him out? Casey to Smith, Louis de Ming? I mean, there's pressure, but like he's not going to lose the job to somebody,

is he? Like, I don't know. It's a weird situation. I think they might have an itchy trigger finger there. And I thought it was interesting, Sean McIndoo, down goes Brown, in his oddly specific prediction column that dropped on Tuesday suggested that maybe just maybe Braden Holpe is going to end up as Pittsburgh's goalie down the road this season, you know, so. I don't know. I'd like to see how that man's brain works. Who, down goes brown? Yeah, when he comes up with these ideas.

He was engineered for the pandemic, Ian. I've never seen a man pump out content when nobody else could. Like, it didn't even change. You just have really weird stuff. And I'm like, how do you do this? What's in your head? Yeah, he's like, what if we made an all rhyming team? We're like, what?

Okay. I'm like, I don't know, where would you even come up with this? How do you even know all these names? I don't even know that many words. No. Yeah. But you know what, though? And I told him this the other day.

Like, he's so laser focused. He didn't even realize. So McKenzie Weeger, terrific defensemen, right? With Florida and every, I think a lot of people feel like McKenzie's one of the most underrated players in the game. Now, Sean McIndoo and I are neighbors. We live around the corner from each other. So I told him on the athletic hockey show a couple of weeks ago.

I'm like, hey, I bet you didn't even know this. You know, McKenzie Uigher grew up in our neighborhood and went to the school around the corner? He's like, no, didn't know. So I'm like, he could have, he's so laser focused. I think he doesn't even know what's going on sometimes. Like, McKenzie Wigger is our neighbor. Dialed in.

Down goes brown. There you go. Yeah, his, his brain certainly works in a curious way. Hey, as we're talking about opening night, though, in the regular season, and I said, you know, ESPN is launching. their brand new kind of first time in 17 years. We're going to see the NHL on ESPN. NHL on TNT.

I love the look at their new set. And I'm a huge Liam McHugh fan. I think he does a great job. I'm happy to see that he's landed on his feet with TNT. Wayne Gretzky is obviously Haley going to be the focal point here. And if you know anything about Wayne Gretzky, the one thing he has always been is this like really eloquent sort of stately person that very rarely says anything controversial.

What do you think Wayne Gretzky, the TV analyst, is going to be like? Measured, a little bit out there. Like, what do you think he's going to be like? I don't know. I think that's the big question, right? And that's something that people have probably been asking since Wayne Gretzky got hired for that position or since people were even discussing it. You know, how can ESPN or TNT recreate the, you know, Shaq and Charles Barkley effect?

I think what's going to make, or what typically makes athletes really good TV analysts, you know, you've got the Tony Ramos who can just like predict what's going to happen because they have such an encyclopedic knowledge and incredible understanding of the games. You get those really awesome moments like Tony Romo being like, you know, I think this is what they're going to do off the snap or, et cetera. I don't think Wayne Gretzky's going to be that because he's going to be a studio analyst unless he's going to go into the studio and start saying, like, this is what I think that they're going to do coming out of the period, but it's not the same because it's not that,

like, instant gratification of like, whole, oh my God, he was right again. This guy's a genius. I don't know if he's going to be, and then you've got the analysts who are really funny and can share great stories about what happened in their playing days. You know, I've got this really great story that, you know, what Michael Jordan did or, you know, what, you know, ex-hockey player did in this moment. And I don't know if Gretzky's going to be like that either. Like, I don't know if he's going to be that really outgoing, funny, sharing stories. Like, I know that Wayne Gretzky knows the game. Like, we've heard the stories. Like, you know, Thomas Dransk tweeted about it. When Gretzky got hired, I think he posted something. Dran's had been working

with the Panthers at the time. And, you know, Gretzky was there and Duranz was giving him a tour. and Gretzky said something about like, you know, one of their goalie tannums or one of their deep hairs. And he just showed Drans that like he knew a lot about the Florida Panthers and the exes and those of the team. So that's just one example. But we know he knows the game. So I don't know if he's going to be like this, but it'd be nice because you've got this

incredibly established, accomplished hockey player who knows a lot of people. Look at the teams he played on, the teammates he had, the people that he knows. who also knows the game really well. So I really, really hope that we're going to get a Wayne Gretzky who can kind of meld all that together and be kind of fun and light and share stories, but also just like bring that next level analysis to the game. I think there's some really good analysts in hockey, but I think as football fans, and you can maybe attest this too, I think we're spoiled in football with the level of analysis that you get from some of these former players, from people just getting really into the X's and O's and not telling us

what we just saw, but explaining how it happened or explaining it from a player's point of of view and really getting into and just teaching us, not talking at us, not lecturing, but just, you know, you come out of it learning something about the game and you're like, yeah, I'm listening to Wayne Gretzky tell me about like what's effective on the half wall. And then you hear Wayne Gretzky telling a story about Mark Messier or something. Like, I don't know if he's going to be like that. I don't know what to expect and I know that was your question. but I just really hope we can get, you know, a nice combination of the two.

I think that's the like perfect scenario because you get the name recognition and all that added value. But I don't know what he's going to be like. Yeah, and I think it's going to be one of the cool storylines to start the season. And I think like you said, I think what's really cool is that, you know, hockey all these years, the analysts and it's always been like kind of bottom six forwards or goalies. We've never had the best of the best. You look at the NFL and you look at their broadcast teams and it's like Steve Young and Terry Bradshaw, Randy Moss and, you know, arguably some of the best, even Peyton Manning now, like some of the best players ever in the NFL have moved over. Even the NBA, Shaq, Charles Barkley, these guys are Hall of Famers.

In the NHL, it's never been the Hall of Famers. It's always been these sort of panels of guys that were, they were pretty good players, but not super superstars or megastars. And I think that's what I'm interested in seeing Gretzky there is that I think that he's going to, add some cash A. And like you said, he's got that brain that probably works on a different level. And don't forget, he coached the Arizona Coyotes for a couple of years. So he knows some X's and Oz. He knows some things that, you know, are going to be interested in. He helped construct a couple of team canadas from a general manager's perspective. So this is going to be, I think, a lot of fun. What I got to ask you, though, speaking of fun, Haley, I gave you a homework assignment

last week on the athletic hockey show. It's been six days. Haley. Actually, no, even more. Sorry, it's been eight days. We did the show last Monday and now it's been eight days. You had one job, Haley, and the job was simply draft your athletic hockey show fantasy team on our officepools.com fantasy hockey league. All the hosts are in. I got my team and I got a problem because Brock Besser is going to start the season on IR. I do have a few hours where I can go in, change that, and then change my team name because I went with, my team is better than yours. Yeah.

But I feel like I'm going to, I'm going to just, I'm going to see that pun through and pay the price for it. I need to know, as Haley Salvean selected her team for the athletic hockey show, office pool, fantasy hockey draft. What's the deadline for that again? It is puck drop between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Pittsburgh Penguins, 70, Eastern time on Tuesday night. No, I haven't.

You are something else. I don't even have an excuse. You had one job. I live alone. I did not have a family Thanksgiving. I live alone. You know what I did? You know what I did yesterday? I went to the grocery store and I saw this sad little 899 thing with one slice of turkey

and a couple of Brussels sprouts. And I was like, is this going to be my Thanksgiving dinner? I don't know. It wasn't. I was too sad to purchase. But I have no excuse. I mean, I worked all weekend. But I did not work on my office pool's hockey pool.

And I don't know if we should be admitting this because, you know, if we've got a sponsor, he's going to be like, oh, my God. What a terrible, what a terrible promoter. You better get on it. You know what? I went on and I stude over it. And then I was like, I'm going to finish. later because there's too many options. There's too many good players. I'm really bad at decisions.

I'm a deadline-driven creature. So if you're telling me I have until 7 p.m. Eastern, I've got plenty of time. So there's no need to worry. By the time puck is dropped, I will have a team. It will have a stupid name. I saw a couple of things with your Kirby Doc post. Kirby, your enthusiasm? Didn't appreciate that, by the way, because now I feel like I like that name because I have said this before, I really relate to Larry David and how cranky and awkward he is. I really think that's me. I think that comes through on the podcast, quite honestly.

I don't know if that's great for chemistry, but, you know, I'm the cranky, I'm the cranky, awkward, rude one. And so now I feel handcuffed to Kirby Doc to. name my team, Kirby, your enthusiasm. So I'm a little mad at you, actually. Okay, we're giving you options, though. But again, a reminder, too, for our listeners, if you get to this episode before 7 Eastern Time on Tuesday, you can check it out, OfficePools.com, our athletic hockey pool,

great prizes, free to sign up and go head to head. And you'll probably end up finishing ahead of at least me, maybe Haley, Sean McIndoo, and the rest of the gang. All right, Haley, you know, you and I've been talking about. how we're kind of kicking off season two of the athletic hockey show. And so we thought, why not go back to the OG guest? If I'm not mistaken, the first episode of the athletic hockey show we ever did, we had Dom Lutz Chichen with us.

Oh, my God. If I'm not mistaken. You're mispronancing at this point. Luch Chichen. Jesus. This is part of the yet. Is it a bit? Yeah.

It is a bit. But we're not talking about Dom's pronunciation here. We need to talk about the situation between the two of you. Before we launch into this podcast here and this conversation that's going to focus on hockey in a season preview, the two of you need to clear the air here. You know what? I think we're fine. We're not fighting.

Yeah, it's fine. So, you know, here's the lay of the land. Don't can't even look at me. So yesterday, I'm sitting at a coffee shop. I'm getting some work done. Opening days coming, super busy. Some things happen while I'm in this coffee shop. I start to cry. You know, I didn't fully cry. I was like, ooh, I might cry in this coffee shop right now for reasons I won't get into. And so I text my good friend, Dom, at the athletic, and I just say, I think I'm going to cry in public right now. And like three hours later, he texts me back. So did you cry? That's it. Didn't ask if I was okay.

Didn't call. We like, do you need something? Everything all good just said, did you cry? And I said, yeah, I did. And that was that. And then we moved on. I was like, see you on the podcast world. Well, for the record, it was not three hours.

It was two hours and 20 minutes. So. Oh, okay, okay, okay. A little better. In hindsight, not the best response I could have had, but I feel like we have that rapport where we can joke around with each other and pretend like crying doesn't matter and just ask if, did you cry? Yeah, I did.

And you know what? We're good. It's all good. I just don't know if that's a healthy friendship. I don't know. Is that what normal people do? I just need to know, is Dom the only person you text? Like, is he like your ride or die? You're like, what's the deal here?

Like, yeah, how many people did you text that? How many people did you text? No, Dom's my work, bestie. Everybody knows that. I didn't, yeah, I just sent out like a mass text to like seven different people. But like, guys, I think I'm going to cry in this coffee shop right now. It's something I really want to spread around. As I say it on this podcast and how many thousand downloads we get a week.

Hey, guys. super unhinged at the moment. Happy opening day. My, my response to Haley was, uh, well, hockey's back tomorrow. That's exciting. Seven exclamation points. Yeah, actually, it actually was. I should. Yeah. It was good. You know what? It was like, you know what? It is back tomorrow. This is good. See you on the pod. I feel great. I distracted her from. So true. Bestie. Emotions. That's just the way to go. That's the right response. It was. Exactly. It was the right response. You know what? Yeah. I'm glad we talked this out. There we go. See, now we're all in the same page.

And by the way, because this is an audio podcast, people will not be able to see that Dom is wearing a Colorado Avalanche hat, which I love, because that is, if you looked at his kind of preseason rankings and his models, you know, he's pretty bullish on the ads. But I've got to ask you this question, Dom, because I'm thinking, you know, Colorado fans are probably pretty happy with you. There's probably a handful of fan bases that are pretty happy with some of your preseason projections. Is there one fan base where you were like, man, I took a lot of heat?

from this fan bay. They were super sour with me for my preseason projections and rankings. Yeah, Leif's fans. They want off this ride as much as I do. I would like to stop rating them highly. And that's definitely the one. I think I had like 450 comments or something like that. Every other preview had like 50, 100,

and then of course the Leafs have the highest one. And of course, people are outraged because they're the Leafs. And they did what they did last year. And I have not written about them since, I don't think. And it felt very cathartic to get everything on the page of how I felt and why I do and don't believe in the team. And I don't know, I think Leafs fans are just sick of having hope. They just want actual results for once, you know? We had Myrtle on the podcast.

Actually, it was Jonas, which was great. That tweet that went out, it was great. Jonas was looking terrible is what people were saying. But we had Myrtle on the podcast, and he was saying, like, it's a hard team to cover this year because none of this matters. It's just like, what are you going to do in the postseason? Like, let's just fast forward a couple months down the road and see what? they do because that's going to really be the only measure that matters when it comes to the leaves. Yeah. Yeah. It feels weird because I feel like most people agree that the Leafs

have a good team and should cruise to the regular season. It is what comes after that that no one knows about and that's going to take a while to actually get there. So it's hard to really have a read on anything until it happens. And after writing the most pessimistic thing I've written about the Leaves in a long time. I felt suddenly optimistic. I watched all or nothing. I saw the scene with Marner and Matthews alone in the dressing room. I'm like, that's the scene they're going to play before the Leafs have success, if they have success. And it feels like you need that scene before you get to the good stuff. I remember before the Lightning won their cup, you had Kutrov just sitting on the ice, just looking depressed after getting swept by the blue jackets. And I think

that juxtaposition is important because pretty much every team that's one, they've had some adversity they've had to face first. And the Leafs just haven't got past that yet. No. And I think when you look at that division too, like it feels like Toronto's a playoff lock. I want to ask you this question, though, because Haley and I are all in on the Florida Panthers. Like we are driving the Panthers bandwagon. We're loving this team. They're fun. Is there any scenario, Dom, where you can see the Florida Panthers having a. better regular season than the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning. Oh, yeah, definitely.

I think we saw last year the way the team brought in, I don't want to say nobody's, but like no one was giving too much credit to Cardover Hagee, Anthony Duclair, Alex Wenberg at the deadline, Sam Bennett and Brenn Montour didn't look like much. And all of those guys stepped up and played unreal under Quenville and for the Panthers. if that is something they can sustain that they're going to be a team to watch for sure in the Atlantic, I think they can be the best team of Atlantic if everything comes together. They seem to have some magic last year where players just found their best gear under Quinville, and I'm really bullish on them.

I think my model probably underrates them because it's still a little cautious. It sees the prior years. They sees Sam Bennett when he played in Calgary looking pretty terrible, and doesn't really know what to do with the team. But I think there's a reason for hope in Florida. I think if Tampa Bay doesn't really care about the regular season, then I can see Florida finishing ahead of them again. And I guess it's kind of interesting that your model kind of underrates Florida.

I think your model, I don't want to say it overrated, but I think people were surprised at how good the Seattle Cracken were rated by your model. I think the general consensus after the draft was, you know, Ron Francis didn't do a great job or he overplayed his hand, etc. but your model and you seem to think pretty highly of what the Cracken put together. Yeah, it's a little weird because every model sees the same thing, but the betting market thinks they're average, which is probably a more fair description of them.

And then I think Jayfresh did a poll of fans, and they have the Cracken below average. And I get the sentiment because you look at the team and it doesn't look like that impressive, but they have a lot of depth, a lot of NFL bodies, a lot of underrated players who scored at or near first line rate last year at 5-on-5. They just played in lower minutes, a lower role, so they could step up in a bigger role. And the biggest thing, which I think people probably don't see because they tend to focus

on points and offensive totals is that a lot of players that Cracken selected were very defensively-minded, and they're built from the net out for both Grubauer, Dreeger, and having a steady defense corps, having forwards that are defensively responsible. I think they have built a team that can win low-scoring games, and that can be helpful to be a decent team, but maybe not an elite one. It's sort of the Islanders model,

but we haven't seen it yet happen. So we will see whether they can do it. I just think they're a lot better than people are giving them credit for. You know, it's funny you mentioned the Islanders because I want to talk about that Metro division for a second with you, Don, because look, I think if Seattle makes the playoffs, there's a lot of people who would say, well, they might make it because that Pacific Division is arguably the weakest of the four. And I think on the flip side, the Metro might be the strongest, at least top to bottom.

It feels that way to me where I can see a, you know, a whole bunch of teams making the playoffs are missing it. As we sit here at the start of the regular season, Dom, how do you see the, like, I guess maybe this is the way to ask you. Who are the absolute playoff locks in your mind in that metro division? Locks in that division? There are none. None of them are locks.

That's the beauty of it. I don't think there is a true top team. I love the Islanders in the playoffs. But I think getting there, it's not a guarantee. I think they're the best team of the Metro Division, but they do have to actually earn a playoff spot because Pittsburgh, the Rangers, Carolina, Washington, they have solid teams that can make it. New Jersey has made massive improvements.

Philadelphia won't be as bad as last season. There's six other teams that have a legitimate shot in making the playoffs, and nothing will be guaranteed in that division. I think that's will make it fun, but I don't think the top end is as strong as some other divisions, especially the Atlantic, where you can say there are four teams better than almost everyone in the metro, aside from the Islanders. Is there a team that you think is going to, that has the potential to be the biggest disappointment this season?

And you can't say the Leafs. I can't say the Leafs? No. Non-leafs team that could, you know, have a big drop off, either regress or just not meet their expectations. It depends what those expectations are. I think maybe some fans in Chicago think that they have built a. great team after a nice off season. They're getting TAVs back.

They're getting DAC back for a full season. They probably are on the outside looking in right now, so they might be a little disappointed with that, especially if Flurry does not play up to the ability he was at last year. So I think they're a candidate if everything doesn't come together as some expect. Carolina, I think, has a chance to be that because their goaltending feels so risky right now. And Washington's always at the top, and it wouldn't be me if I didn't say.

say Washington's coming down this year. I got to say it every year. Was it your preview where it just said like everyone should just stop listening to me when it comes to this team at this point? Yeah, and I love the athletic Twitter account using that as the poll quote. I appreciate that so much. Just don't read this. Just skirt right over it.

You know, Dom, I'm hoping maybe you could peel back the curtain a little bit for our listeners here on the article that dropped earlier on Tuesday, and that is the annual kind of ranking of the players in tiers. Where you, alongside Corey Pranman and the Sean Gentile, you kind of go through all of the tiers. And I'm curious, like, what were the players that maybe caused the greatest debate? And one guy that I'm really interested in, what was the conversation like about Sidney Crosby,

who's going to actually start the season? Looks like he's not going to start in the lineup for Pittsburgh, probably closer to coming back than maybe we thought. Like, he's kind of in that 1B category for you guys. Was there a thought of bump and sit down, or is he still just firmly, firmly in that top tier? It was not firm at all. He was probably the most decisive player.

And actually, not the most decisive because Victor Headman is also there. And his statistical outlook wasn't the strongest last year. I think we've all talked about that enough. But, yeah, Crosby, there was real debate about dropping him to 2A. his 5-on-5 numbers aren't as strong as they used to be. He's not a hundred-point player anymore. But at the end of the day, it's Crosby. You don't bet against him until he shows you you shouldn't.

And I think in the playoffs, he's still a player you want your team to win a game. He's just so important to that team. I think we were willing to give him the benefit of doubt for one more year, whereas for other elder players, we definitely move them down a bit. there was a lot of debate around Ovechkin. I think a lot of the analysts I talked to, we had him in 3A because we had the same reverence and they're like, Ovechkin, that high? Like, you guys serious with this?

Like, he's not the player he used to be. He is just a shot is what a lot of people were starting to say. It was a similar thing with Stamcoast where there was a big campaign to bump him down. We had him in tier three for a bit. Other big debates, Dougie Hamilton, always and forever will be heavily debated. headman we started in 2a because of how he dropped off a bit last season but a lot of people convinced us to just bring him back up and give him a mulligan because of his injury and we said sure why not he was 1B last year let's just leave him there um yeah there were there were a few others but

i think those were the biggest ones uh we had aaron eckblad a bit higher to start and we had um a lot of people saying to bump him down a bit um there was some debate between like the analogue's people and like the hockey watching people that mackenzie weger is the guy who actually drives the bus in florida and there shouldn't be a big gap between him and ecblad so there were there were a lot of discussions but i think for the most part we had a pretty good foundation and everyone we talked to said this is a good list is just to change a few things here or there and that's that's basically it when you're rating players everyone's going to have their own opinion everyone views things differently

and it's it is funny to see some of the people in the comments say things with such clarity and certainty like oh this guy isn't in tier two this list is invalid now like you are not the arbiter of who is good and bad random john doe in the comments uh one of the debates that i found interesting in here was the the boston bruin's debate and just who drives the bus on the Bershron, Marchand, Pasternak line. Yeah. Looks like you guys ended up landing on Marchand being the driver because he's higher in the, in the tiers. Can you maybe just walk us through that debate and kind of what you guys had heard

about, you know, who's the play driver on that perfection line in Boston? Yeah, it's always been someone different every year. Was Bershron for a while than Pasternack scored scoring at like a 50 goal pace? So we thought maybe him. but I think last year with Bergeron and Pashtonac's point totals sort of going downhill, Marciaun's staying elite, that we thought he was doing more individually to drive the line's offense than the other two. Maybe the other two were a bit unlucky with that,

but with all of them having such strong play-driving impacts, it was the production that was, I guess, the thing that separated him from the pack. We talked to a few people, and they weren't sure if there was anything worthy of separation, but we thought that was enough to give him in 2A instead of 2B, like a Bergeron Pasternak. You know, I think it's interesting that, you know, Nick Suzuki gets into the news cycle this week, signs an eight-year contract extension with Montreal for just a hair under 8 million per 7.8.

And as you guys put your tiers together, Suzuki is on that list. He is in the, he's in the fourth, I think, four, yeah, four C. So he's on your list. And I'm curious, how do you see that contract aging in the next five to, obviously, in the short term, everyone's pretty bullish on him. The question when you sign anybody doing an eight-year deal, what's this deal going to look like in a few years from now, don't? I think it'll look good. I'm really high on the player. I think he has potential to be a high-end one-see.

I don't know if he'll be an elite one, but I think he'll be a guy you're probably happy with as a first-line center, sort of like in the 3B rating. range with Zabinajad, Sheifley, Tavares, those type of guys. I think that's not a guarantee. That's the big issue for me. And he's probably worth it if he just takes another small step. But I think in order for him to be a bargain, which is the bet they're making, you want him to take an even bigger step towards that range. And I think based on his comparables, based on what he's shown to date, I'm not sure if it's a huge likelihood he'll get there. And at the, at the time, he's a huge likelihood. And at that point you're just paying fair price for a guy who's an okay first line center and i don't know if that is really what montreal wants they probably are they're still looking for that high-end first-line

center i just i love suzuki i just don't know if he's shown enough to make me completely sure he'll get there and just a quick thought you you kind of compared him to mika zabanajad and mika signed your contract extension last week too but obviously there's an age difference right yeah do you have the Do you have the same red flags that a lot of people had, which was, okay, Mika Zabanajad next two or three years? That's great. Boy, Mika Zabanajad years five through eight, that could be problematic. Yeah, I didn't realize how old he was. So that's definitely the big difference between contracts.

You'd definitely rather have Suzuki signed to his deal than Zabinajad, just from the age difference. Zabinajad, we know what he is, and we know based on his age that he'll probably be less going forward. Suzuki, we don't know what he is and he might be worth it. He might be worth a lot more, but it's a risk that comes with a potentially high reward. With Zabinajad, because it's a UFA deal, it's almost all potential downside

where it's the idea that you just don't want to lose the player and I get it. But I think with where the Rangers are, you'd almost feel better risking seeing where he'll be this year and seeing where the team is and maybe trying to work around that young core they're building because I feel like they're they're in this rush to build

around Zabinajan and Pen Aaron. I don't mind it but signing him for eight years it does it does carry a lot of risk I think. So I got to ask you this because Haley and I are in a hockey pool this year going head to head with our listeners. It is the office pools of athletic hockey league. I need to know are you dumb, do you, are you in like a longstanding like fantasy league with your friends or how does that work just from a pool perspective for you yeah so the reason my fantasy projections come out every day or every year the day after labor day is so the people in my league do not get them um i'm been a league with people from like high school for since high school i guess and have a couple friends at man university who joined and it's a serious keeper league we have like a

miniature stanley cup that the winner gets and last year was my year and because ever everyone had access to my projections, I feel like I, that was, I lost because of that. I feel like that was it. And this year, I had to make sure that didn't happen again. Okay. So, but like, isn't there, do you feel the weight of the extra pressure? Like, are the other people in the pool, are they in the industry, not like their high school buddies, so maybe they're all doing different things? Do you feel the extra pressure of like, you damn well better win this pool because this is what you do for a living? Here's, here's the thing. I am the leaps of this. pool. I never win. I always have this amazing team in the regular season. And I would either

come first or second and then come playoffs, everything just unravels. And so two years ago, I said, I need to change up the strategy. I'm just going to tank. I'm going to tank. I'm going to get a lot of picks. I'm going to aim for 2021 season. What happens? There's a pandemic. There's a short in season. My projections are available to everyone in the league now. So plans sometimes go Ari, and that is okay. But yeah, I, there is a bit of pressure and I never live up to it. So I do feel the pain of some of the NHL players out there.

It's obviously not on the same level, but I get it. I guess last question from me, Dom, just heading into opening day here. Are there any big bets that you're looking at? I guess there's two games on the docket, but any big bets that people should be looking out for? For the games tonight? Mm-hmm. Or season two. You know, season bets two that you're really looking at.

I don't know. I, despite my disbelief in the Leafs, you got to trust the process. So I bet on them to win the cup, win the presence trophy, win the division, over on points. Because I feel like the market, because the sentiment is so negative around the team, I feel like the market is underrating their actual ability. We will see if I'm right or wrong. But that was one of them. I bet the over on Seattle Cracken points because, again, the market is really low on them because a lot of fans are. And that means for today, I didn't bet on them yet because I'm waiting for the COVID protocols.

to be more clear and to see whether Jared McCann, Eunice, Don, Skoy are playing in Jamie Lexiak. But if they are, I'll probably be betting on the Cracken on Tuesday night for opening night. My reaction to the Leafs bet is just, oh, dumb. Oh, no. It's like that How I Met Your Mother episode. Oh, honey. Listen, I don't live in this beautiful corner loft without making a few betting mistakes here and then, because sometimes they're not mistakes.

Sometimes they work out. and usually they work out, and that's why I am where I am. Oh, God. I love it. All right. I love it. Hey, by the way, do you have a punny name for your fantasy hockey team, like either a longstanding name, or do you change it up every year, or you're just straight up, your

fantasy team name is the same thing? So in our league, we sort of have this thing, or you have to have branding, and you have to have a city and mascot that are based around the initials of your name. So I have a friend, his name is Steve Zemis, ST, so his team name is the Springfield Tirefire. And the one I went with, it's sort of hard to go with D&L, it's a tough name, but I went with the Death Valley Lion Kings after Mufasa. This is probably not what Ian was looking for. What do you mean?

I'm all in. I'm all in on Mufasa. Where's the Malkin cookies? There's no, there's no malk and cookies in this league. No, it's not allowed. We got it. You have to have a city where you're from or a country if you want.

And you got to have a mascot. This is a professional league. Your team name has to be professional-ish. Otherwise, it's going to be on the trophy. There's going to be like some weird malkin cookies throughout the years. There's no consistency. You got to have a consistent brand. in this league.

Death Valley Lion Kings. I like it, by the way. Thank you. I love it. All right. Hey, listen, we appreciate you dropping by, Dom, as always. And at some point, I'm sure, in the next few weeks, we'd love to have you back on and kind of just see how the season is playing out.

But listen, enjoy the start of the regular season. And thanks for joining us here on the Applantic Hockey Show. Yeah, thanks for having me. I'm sure I'll be back in a month or so. And maybe I'll have to flirt with the America show in the meantime. Don't. We don't like them. Craig is so freaking mean.

Like, should we be worried that he is so savage about us in our show and he's our boss? Do you listen? He just throws stones at me and Ian. So don't go on their show dumb. I'm going to go and throw stones at you guys. Don't. If they pronounce my last name correctly, Ian's getting slandered right away. I pronounce it right, though.

I teach people how to pronounce your last name, so you can't do this to me. You haven't taught Ian yet. You cry in public again. Yeah. Anyways, thanks Dom. Thanks for having me. All right. Always great to connect with Dom.

Just a, you know, just a interesting way of looking at the National Hockey League kind of through his lens. And so I'm curious to see how some of his preseason projections play out here. And I'm sure, like he said, we'll have them back at some point in the next few weeks. Hey, before we wrap up the show with multiple choice matters, can I, look, I felt like you shared something with our listeners. earlier today. You opened up with your feelings. You talked about, you know, reaching out. I need to, I need to say something here. And I'm just, I need to know if you can help me out with this. Okay. So I binged Squid Game. Okay. I haven't seen it yet. I am broken. I'm shattered. It is disturbing. It's sad? I, I need someone to help me. Someone to hold me.

Like this is, and I watched it with our 14 year old who was like, yeah, whatever. I'm like, How can you, anyway. So for the listeners of this. Is it like a devastating death show? Yes. And so I just need some like for the listeners of the show, please like reach out to me. Help me. Help me.

Help us. I would have texted Dawn. I would have been a two hour, 20 minute delay before he got back to me. So I wouldn't, you know, I wouldn't want to do that. I just need some help here. And I'm just telling you if you end up watching it, it will rattle you to the core. That's all I'm going to say. Yeah, I just want to know.

And I'm going to, you know, I'll tweet this. We'll draft a tweet after the show. If your friend, like one of your best friends text you, oh, yeah, I'm crying right now. Something's going on. And you, and you respond, like, almost three hours later being like, oh, did you cry? Like, are we, I don't know, maybe Dom and I need to work on our, like, emotion intelligence. Maybe you're not as good of friends as you thought. That maybe that's the takeaway.

Maybe. Maybe he hates me. Maybe he just doesn't care. Oh, no. Anyways, let's get to the multiple choice. Okay, here we go. I see, I'd love to know if he has like, maybe he has some formula like tears per 60 or something. He was trying to figure out.

Expected tears per 60. Expected tears. Well, she probably cried this much already. It's been two hours. So she's probably done by now. So she probably needs a good joke. Yeah. See?

The model, the model. The model is never... Never wrong. All right. Wrapping up the show with a multiple choice madness. Okay, I'm going to give you four things, four scenarios for this season.

Okay, Haley? You tell me which one you're the most certain. You're like, yep, that is absolutely the one I'm picking. I think this will be the most certain thing. Okay, so which of these things are you most certain will happen during this hockey season?

Is it A? either Buffalo or Arizona will finish in last place overall. Okay? Is it B? Connor McDavid is going to win the Art Ross trophy, meaning you'll have the most points of anyone. Is it C? Are you that certain that Tampa will not win the Stanley Cup?

Okay. So that would mean they would have to three Pete. Or is it D, are you most certain the Seattle Cracken will not finish in last place in their own division. If you had to look at these four things, they could all happen. What's the one thing?

You're the most certain. You're like, yep, that's where I would put my money if I had to make a bet. It's got to be A. I don't know who else would finish in last place. Like, I can't imagine anyone else other than Buffalo or Arizona

finishing last in the league. Like, it's just A. Columbus? No. One of the California teams, Ottawa, Detroit. No. No. You're that certain. Look. I'm the most certain. I'm the most certain. It's one of those two. I will, I don't bet, but I'll do it. I'll put money on it. Yeah. I'm feeling risky. It's day one. Okay. Five bucks, Ian. I'm in Ottawa and November. Oh, I guess what a stupid thing to say. I'm in Ottawa, November. And if I'm right, then I'll buy you a coffee. Yeah. Season won't be.

done yet, November, folks. $5. $5.5 if somebody other than Buffalo, Arizona finishes in last place overall. You're that student. That's my big bet. $5. Okay.

You know what I'm going with on this? I think it's Tampa Bay. I think to three Pete and win three straight Stanley Cups, that'd be mind-blown. I just think the odds are so stacked against them. And I love them. They're a great team. Don't get me wrong. But everything has to go right for you

to win the Stanley Cup. And then to do it in back-to-back years, that's even like... So for me, I just feel like it's almost impossible in the cap era to win three, let alone even just get the three straight Stanley Cup final. So I'm going to say, I am most certain that Tampa's not going to win the cup again this year.

But we love to hear from our listeners. Yeah, you're right. I think I'm just bullish in how bad Buffalo and Arizona are going to be. I was blinded by anything else anyways. Yeah, blinded by the mediocrity. Oh, yeah. Here we go.

I want to know which of these teams on this list are you just the most unsure of? You're like, they're so unpredictable here as we start the regular season. I don't know. Are they going to make the playoffs or are they going to be like a lottery team? Like, where is it going to be? So I can give you five teams. You tell me you're like, this is the team that gives me like the shrug emoji the most. Is it A, the Pittsburgh Penguins, B, the Chicago Blackhawks.

see the New York Rangers D the Vancouver Canucks or E the Minnesota Wild? Who's the team? You're like, I have no idea where they're going. There's some other teams we could have thrown in. Like I thought about St. Louis. I thought about Calgary.

I thought about, trust me, there's some other teams. But Pittsburgh, Chicago, the Rangers, Canucks, Minnesota. Who's the biggest kind of unpredictable team for you? Yeah. It's a really good one and it's really tough. Like you could go through the list, I think.

We heard from Dom. Like Chicago's probably on the outside looking. in right now, maybe the public perception is that they got better than they maybe will actually be on the ice. It'll be interesting to see what they become. I think the rangers should take a step in the right direction. But, you know, we don't know if, I mean, they bet they made this, you know, these changes to become grittier. And then, you know, Ryan Reeves is hurt. And that, that division is hell. The Canucks made a bunch of moves this offseason. Like, they were one of the busier teams this offseason with some of the deals that they made, but I don't know what those

are going to look like. And that's a Pacific division that, you know, the Calgary Flames are one of the bigger question marks, but I think a lot of people just assume that they're going to make the playoffs because the Pacific is so bad. So Vancouver's kind of in that boat. But I feel like I look at the, and the Minnesota Wild are kind of that team that's just, it's Minnesota sports. I see the, I see the fans talk about it all the time. They're stuck in the middle forever. kind of average, but they've got some good, they've got real Caprizov, what are they going to look like? But I always just kind of go back to the penguins. Like the penguins are kind of a team similar to Washington where you're just kind of being like, okay, now are they going to drop off?

And is their window slam shut? And I think there's, it's a very legitimate and fair take to say that I think their window of contention is closed. But it's also very legitimate to say I don't want to bet against, like, Sydney Crosby or say, I think Crosby and Malkin and Letang have a little bit more to give. And they've got Brian Dumolin and they've got Jake Gensel and they've got some pieces. But then they've got Tristan Jari and that, which we already talked about. So I just feel like looking at the penguins, like I'm literally just like, I have no, I don't know because then they're also in that metro division. So I feel like I get more confused thinking about the Pittsburgh penguins, which is indicative of me having no idea what's going to happen.

with them. Yeah. It's a good answer. I think you can make a case for all of them. I'll take Chicago because, and I really liked Mark Lazarus's piece on the weekend where Las kind of looked at both sides of the coin for Chicago, like, yeah, they could be a playoff team or no, they're not going to be a playoff team. And I don't know what they are, but they were super aggressive in the offseason, right? Like they got the reigning Vezner Trophy winning goalie in Mark Andreik Fleury. Yeah. They got Seth Jones. They got Tyler Johnson. They got rid of Duncan Keith. Like, They did a lot of things that I think lead me to think that I don't know where they're going to be. And they got a great core with, you know, Patrick Caney's healthy is still probably a top 10, 12 point producer in this league.

You know, Doc and DeBrincat are pretty good players. Like, what's Jonathan Tave's going to be after missing a year? Like, I'm really intrigued. Like, you could talk me into Chicago being a top 10 team in the league. And then I could also see the flip side where it all starts to crumble and these guys are on the wrong side of 30. and I'm like, I can see. I don't know what they're going to be, but I think they're going to be super intriguing.

So I think I would, I think I'd go Chicago myself there. All right. Last one for you, Haley. And, you know, for years, I would think people had Sid Crosby and Alex Ovechkin at the top of their fantasy, you know, hockey pool lists

and maybe not so much this year, right? Somebody Crosby starting the season, a little bit of health in question. Even Ovechkin, a little bit of health in question here, opening the season. who's going to end up having a better year, statistically, this year, Haley? Is it A, Cindy Crosby, or B, Alexander Ovechkin? I mean, I think Ovechkin's still uncertain for the season opener, unless that's changed this morning.

You know, Crosby's going to be out. I'm so bad at this. Like, I feel like we heard from Dom already. Like, you know, some people are saying, you know, people in the industry are saying Ovechkins, you know, not the same player, like he's kind of just a shooter now. And, and I don't even say that to be negative about Alex Ovechkin. Like, that's fine. I think one of the great things about watching players in their prime is also watching them shift out of their prime years and how they adjust and how their game evolves as they age and continue to play. And like, there's nothing wrong with Alex Ovechkin,

just like, you know, being in the Richard race and chasing Gretzky's record because, you know, one of the, you know, pillars of his game now, because he's aging and regressing in other areas, is just lining up in the slot to shoot one-timers. Like, that's fine. That's great. Will he get more points overall than Sidney Crosby who can still, I know his five-on-five numbers aren't exactly the same, but, you know, what Crosby always had over Ovechkin was he was more of an all-around player. He could make the plays. He could score the goals. So my gut is always to say Crosby, because he can do those other things. I don't know.

This is a hard one. Like, yeah, my guts to say Crosby, but he's also out. And we don't know what he's going to look like when he comes back. He's out longer term than Ovechkin. You know, how much time is he going to miss? And how's that going to impact his ability to step right in? And, you know, Malkin's not there. I mean, they don't always play together.

They don't play together, excuse me. So that doesn't really have an impact. So maybe Malkin being out will put more. on Crosby to score more. I'm trying to think about this out loud. Like, I don't know. I guess I'm going with Crosby, but I could probably be talked out of it

because I have no idea. Penguins, I don't know. I don't know. This is a tough one. I honestly think this is the flip of the coin. Like I, this is going to be a really interesting year, I think, for both these guys because they're at that age in their careers

where it could, it could very quickly regress, but they're both world class first ballot, slam dunk. Yeah. Hall of Famers. Boy, I'm really torn on this one. I'll say Ovechkin is going to have a little bit of a better year statistically. Like, I think he could make, if he's healthy, I think he can get the 40 goals. And again, but Crosby could probably get to 90 points.

Like, look, I think this is going to be a really fun debate to watch these guys on the back half of their careers. Watch how they age. It's going to be fascinating. But I think, I think Ovechkin might, might, might have a slightly better. I mean, you got to look. When was the last time Crosby wasn't an over? a point per game player. Like, I don't think he ever was. No. So it's, it's kind of hard to bet against a guy who's going to, I'm just pulled it up. He scored 62 points in 55 games last year.

Ovechkin had 42 and 45. So it's just, it's hard to bet against a dude who's literally never scored at under a point per game pace in his entire career. But Ovechkin's been just as good. They've been, there's, I mean, I think the, the evolution of their kind of rivalry and relationship's pretty great to song, some of the ESPN promo stuff that, you know, Sid was saying, like, I hope Ovi beats Gretzky's record. I think that'd be awesome. Like, I think that evolution of the

Sid, Ovechkin, rivalry that was really drummed up by the media has been really interesting to see. But, yeah, I'm probably going to go with Crosby on this one. All right, Haley, we'll leave it there. And remember, you have one job in the next four hours and change, five hours and change. And it is what? What are you going to do in the next five hours?

I'm going to go to Flames practice. I'm going to have some lunch. OfficePools.com and fill out your team name. Then text me your pun name that you went with. Okay. Okay. I can do this. Okay.

You can do this. We got you. Text me at 6 Eastern. Okay. I put a reminder of my phone just to remind you to get your team in there. Done. Done and done. Okay.

We'll leave it there. Thanks everybody for listening to this way. edition of the athletic hockey show. Leave us a rating and review on whatever your podcast platform is. We certainly appreciate that. We want to tee up something for tomorrow. The Wednesday edition of the athletic hockey show is going to be relaunched. So we're looking forward to that coming your way on Wednesday.

And a reminder, too, that annual subscriptions to the athletic, they're 50% off when you visit theathletic.com slash hockey show.