The Athletic Hockey Show - NHL Pipeline Rankings: No. 24-17

Episode Date: August 27, 2024

Max and Corey break down the No. 24-17 teams in Corey’s 2024 NHL Pipeline Rankings including the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, Calgary Flames, and discuss the best U23 prospects for each franchise in the group, expectations, projections, and more.Hosts: Max Bultman and Corey PronmanExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Corey Prondman for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. We are continuing today our countdown of Corey's top U23 pipelines throughout the NHL. As a reminder, that does include NHL players. And today we're going to hit teams number 24 through 17, Corey, which starts at 24 with the Winnipeg Jets. Yeah, and Winnipeg is led by Cole Perfetti, who I think will be a really interesting case study to examine how his NHL career goes, given just how dominant a junior player he was in his draft year. It was just incredible with the Saginaw spirit. Showed tremendous hockey

sentiment, his puck skill. But there was always a question on Perfetti is he's 510, 511, his skating is below NHL average, he's not this super physical player, how is his game going to translate? I think we're still waiting for an answer on that question. He's had some really good moments in the NHL and then there were times in the NHO where his ice time was cut, he was scratching the playoffs. And obviously they are a good team in Winnipeg and doesn't mean he's not going to be a

successful long-term player there. But I do have some reservations on just saying like this guy's going to be a massive part of their team for a long time. I want to get to Brad Lamber, who's a player that at times on this podcast even, we've had some trepidations

about he checks in pretty high on this list for Winnipeg after a really strong first year in the HL. Yeah, I think we always wanted to Lambert. We knew he could absolutely skate at the

NHO level and he had decent size and he had the skill, but I questioned the hockey sense at times and I questioned the competitiveness at times. And I thought he answered those questions this season.

I thought he was really consistent at the pro level. He was a big part of Manitoba's team. It's a very young player. And I think, you know, we'll see how it goes in the NHL for him.

But if you were watching him in junior hockey or, you know, whether at WHL level or at the World Junior level or even when you saw him at pros back in Finland and you wondered, how is this guy going to handle the NHL? I think he's at least showing signs that he could be an NHL forward. He can be a guy that can play maybe even in the middle in the NHL, which is not something I wouldn't even thought was possible a year ago, quite frankly. And he's definitely a player trending in a positive direction.

Let's go to the number 23 team now, and that's the Florida Panthers. And I don't think it's any secret to people who the number of, one here is going to be Anton Lundell has really turned into a heck of a player for the Stanley Cup champions. Yeah, when you play major minutes on a team that makes deep playoff runs over two consecutive years, you're going to get a high grade for me. Even though it's kind of funny, we just talk about McGority, how he's not a great skaters, not the flashiest player, neither is Anton Lundel, quite frankly.

But he found a way to have a long, you know, a very successful NHL start and be a big part of a winning team. I think that's just because not only is he so competitive, but he's also super intelligent. and makes a lot of crafty plays and finds a way to impose himself on a game, even if he's not going to blow by guys or be the, you know, the flashiest one-on-one player in the world. I don't know if he's ever going to be like this massive score in the NHL. I don't think he's going to be like the 60-70 point guy consistently,

but he can provide a really good two-way value down the middle while providing a decent amount of offense. Not on this list, but I think someone that we should probably talk about as it relates to the Florida Panthers is Spencer Knight. and I know he doesn't technically meet the criteria here, just misses it on the draft year here. But what are you expecting on a Spencer Knight at this point? Right, because it's a U-23 cutoff for the pipeline ranking that he turned 23 during the year. So Spencer night, you know, spent all the whole year in the American League, actually spending the whole year in the American League while still on a significant NHL contract.

There was a big cap hit that Florida Panthers had to hold for Knight while he was in the American League after he came out of the NHL, NHL PA program this past year while dealing with mental health issues. But in Knight's year in the American League actually was quite up and down. His overall production didn't look amazing. In terms of when you look up to the state percentage numbers in the American League. When I watched him in the American League though this past year, I thought he looked better than his numbers suggested. I still see the athlete.

I still see the hockey stands that got you excited when he was an amateur. And I do think he will be an NHL goalie still. I do think he is going to find a way to become a lot. a regular player in the league again. But he's kind of in a difficult position now, especially with Sergey Bobrovsky kind of having a second wind here in his career and finding a little more consistency. I do wonder what night's long-term prospects are there in Florida.

All right. The number 22 team on your list, Corey, is the Toronto Maple Leafs. And this is an interesting pipeline because I feel like the reputation around Toronto is all about kind of the skilled forwards they have up front. And those guys are also certainly there. but not even quietly, I would say. It's been pretty loud. They've chipped away at insulating those guys with a certain type of kind of complementary forward that they're kind of loaded with in their farm system now.

Matthew Nyes has already arrived. Easton Cowen seems like the next guy up. And even Fraser Mitten, you could talk about potentially filling that kind of role in the future. Yeah. And even like Ben, Dan, for the most recent first round pick, not the flashiest defensemen, but are really, you know, competitive, mobile defensemen. he can make a first pass. He's reliable, he'll kill penalties. That's kind of been the trend of their player they've drafted recently,

but a high-end compete type. You know, Easton Cowan, obviously, even though he put up monster numbers in the OHL this past year, he's a super competitive player. And I don't know if he's going to be a first power play guy in the NHL. I think maybe more of a second power play, maybe second power play net front or bumper. But, you know, he definitely can, you know,

he skates well, you can make some plays. I think there's definitely going to be some offense for him in the NHL, but I think it's called card is a compete. Fraser Minton is also a highly competitive player. Matthew Nyes, he mentioned before, and was an NHL regular for them this year. I often think he's a super competitive player with size, and it's going to have some offense, too, even if his skating isn't the best. So definitely, I think there's definitely a little bit more of a competitive element, a little bit more of a physical element coming into this organization to help William Neelander to help Mitch Marner, maybe, as you said, insulate them a little bit more. Yeah, it's almost one of those farm systems that maybe you would rank higher if you were also grading on how it fits with what they currently have, right?

Because these are kind of missing piece types for them. I also think given where they drafted in recent years, I think they've, you know, the recent picks anyway, I think are looking positive. You know, we'll see how Cowan does the NHL. We'll see how Minden does in the NHL. Yeah, though that remains to be seen. I think even though Cowan had that huge year, there are still some scouts that are a little skeptical about how, you know, given his size and that he's not a, dynamic skater, you know, how that's going to translate into the NHL. But I think for the moment, I think given where they've been picking, being at, you know, in the low 20s is probably a good outcome for them.

It feels bizarre having the Los Angeles Kings this early on the countdown at number 21, because there was a stretch there where they were like a top five staple with some of the farm systems that they had. Some of that is those guys have graduated. Some of those guys honestly just didn't work out quite the way we might have assumed. But here are the L.A. at number 21 and the big story is quentin byfield who had a spectacular season of the NHL this year yes they are led by you know their lottery picks in quentin byfield and brand

Clark and byfield I think finally had the year you were hoping he was going to have I'll be it on the wing he still look like you know this powerful uh you know forward with who's a fantastic skater for a big man you know I don't think he's ever going to physically overwhelm guys just you know in terms of the way he plays but just how big he is I think and just help him win so many pucks. And the pace he plays with is just tremendous. He has great skill. And it looks like he's going to play at the top of a lot of for a very long time.

I think the question of a biofield is just, okay, well, we see all these positive things. You know, we've questioned the hockey sense has been a debate in his game for years. So, and I think it remains a little bit to an extent. So I'm not sure what you think, Max, like when you watch him, like, do you see an 80, 90 point guy? Or are you thinking like 60, 70 points kind of like, that's where I am right now? Yeah, I think it is more 60-70, but I don't think you can rule out the possibility of a couple, like, odd years where he pops a little more than that. You get the right shooting percentage, that kind of thing. But when you think about the value of a 60 to 70 point center at that size with those physical traits, that athleticism, that's a really exciting player.

That is a, in my opinion, a first-line center profile. If he is a center. Well, I think they might need him to be. After they trade away Dubois, like, you know, I know right now they have Deno behind Kopatar and Kopatar, obviously, still there. but I don't know long term who the center answer is in the top six if it's not him. So, yeah, obviously you got to figure that out, but I think they need to give him every opportunity to be that center because otherwise I don't know where it's coming from. And then you have Brian Clark in the system who played most of the year in the American League. I expect this following year will be up in the NHL with the Kings.

And I think in the American League you saw a lot of things you saw for him in Junior, which is just the skill, the offensive hockey sense are just fantastic. He makes so many plays. He's super creative and instinctive with the puck. But you do wonder on the skating. You do wonder on the defensive play. A name I thought about when I watched him is he just like a bigger Adam Bokevis, which could be a good thing because Adam Bokevis, I think the issue was he couldn't defend the NHL at a high level because he's small

and because he's not physical. And I wonder with, but I think of just like the way their brains operate and their way how high end their skill is. If Bokfus was 6-2, maybe he's been more successful in the NHL. I think with Brand Clark, they did think that he could be challenged a little bit when the games got tight. And he was asked to check the opponent's top players. But I still think he's going to have so much offense in the NHL that he's going to be a really good top four defenseman. I think the question with him, just like what Bifield is, is there the star upside there?

Can he be that number one defenseman? Can he be a legitimate top pair defenseman? I think those are the questions for Kings fans that they're hoping that the answer is yes. I mean, I think if you're at Kings fan, the guy you're pointing to is Evan Bouchard and saying, well, look at what Evan Bouchard was through his age 20, age 21 season. And I was at times a Bouchard skeptic. So like, and I had to eat that a little bit. And although I don't wonder if Bouchard was on a different team, how that would, how his career would be going.

But I think that is definitely a reasonable name to point to. All right. Next team on the list at number 20 is Washington. And the big name here is Ryan Leonard. but kind of quietly, Washington's had a couple of hits from the later in the first round and even outside the first round

in the last couple of drafts. Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, Ivan Maristichenko, when they drafted him in the first round a few years ago, given the situation in Russia, given his cancer diagnosis, I don't think anyone could have said confidently

how they thought the next few years for him was going to go, but obviously his health has trended in a positive direction. In his draft plus one year after he came back from, cancer and his year didn't go great. But this year, he played very well in the American League.

I thought got some NHL games where I thought he looked decent when he was up with the capitals as a teenager. And, you know, the Hershey Bears, their farm team won the Calder Cup again this past year. He was on that team. Hendrix was on that team. Vincent E.O.io was on that team. And I could see all three of those guys becoming NHL players at one point. You know, and obviously, it's led by Ryan Leonard. He's such a, you know, a fun player to watch with his skill, his physicality.

I do look at this system. You know, Carmen Michael is it considered by the A's living anymore? I do would wonder maybe, you know, how much offense is coming down the middle for them. And even though I think they have a decent group to build around, when Ovechkin doesn't move on, I do wonder, is this enough here or do they maybe need to bottom out a little bit more to get the high-end players? Even though I think the system's in a decent spot, I do wonder what the long-term direction is here for Washington. Let's talk about the most important guy in that U23 category, though, and that is Leonard, a guy who I think did pretty much what you would have wanted to see him do this year at Boston College. Yeah, and I think he has all the trait to be a really good top six four in the NHL, maybe even potentially a top line winger in the NHL because I think the question for coming out of junior was, yes, we see your competitiveness.

But are you really going to score? Is it just because you're playing with Will Smith and Gay-Perrault? And he couldn't answer that last question because he played yet again with Will Smith and Gayfiro all the last year. But I think there were a lot of people who would have watched Boston College last year or watched the World Juniors last year. And they would have told you a decent chunk of those times that Ryan Leonard was the best player on that line. I still think long-term Will Smith is the best pro prospect just because his hockey sense is so elite. But I think there was a lot of games where I thought where Ryan Leonard out played Smith. and that votes positive for his long-term projection.

Here's my only question on Leonard. And I think he actually has more offense than I even realized in his draft year. But a big part of the appeal is this power game that he plays, and he plays it so well at the junior level, so well at the college level. Is he going to have any challenges doing that at really just a 60, maybe 6-1 when he's at the NHL level? It's definitely something that people in the league have debated. I think the people in his camp would say, well, we'll just look how. big he is. Look how muscular he is.

He's going to find a way to win battles. And I think it's just going to be about tempering exactly how impactful he is. Like if you're expecting him to come in and be, you know, when we were hearing the name, Brady Kachuk thrown around with him at times in his draft year, I don't think he's Brady Kachuk. He's not, doesn't have that kind of frame. He's not going to be able to bully guys

like Brady does. But I think he can still be a powerful player, a guy who wins a lot of battles. But I think he's going to, you know, I think there's going to be offense. I mean, he's got a great shot. His one-v-one skill is very high end. he's a good skater. So I think it's going to be a combination that I don't think you're going to love him

your lot just because of the physicality or just because of the scoring. But I think it's going to be the combination that's going to get you excited about that player. Yeah, he does look like a 30 goal guy now. And also he does have the jawline of Clark Kent, to your point about his build. All right, let's go now to Calgary where the headliner is Zane Perak out of this year's draft and a player who we saw at the World Junior Summer Showcase recently and looked really good there. Yeah. And I think, you know, Calgary, kind of like Washington, too, is an organization where we're like, well, what's the five-year plan here?

How do you get back to contending? And if there is a path to contending, I think it is going to revolve around Perret. He is definitely one of the most talented players in the organization. You may argue in terms of pure upside, he might be the most talented player currently in the organization right now in terms of just the elite hockey sense, the scoring ability, the puck skills, the skating. It's a very exciting combination of traits. It's probably still going to be in junior for another year or two, but, and you're hoping that he learns to defend a little bit more reliably.

But he is a very exciting player with some star upside if he hits. How about some of the other names in this system? Connor Zeri is another guy that kind of broke out a little bit this year. Where do you, where are you out on him these days? I'm a Zari fan. I have been for a few years and I thought he's shown to the term pro, especially this past year in the NHL. You know, why I think some people liked him a lot

just because he's really skilled but also really competitive. There was always issues with the skating that you wondered how that was going to translate to the highest levels and maybe it keeps him from being like a 60-point guy consistently. But I think he's a really good player. You know, coming to the year, I thought it was Matt Coronado was going to be the guy playing full-time for them in the NHL. I ended up, you know, I think it was a competition.

I mean those two players and Zerre ended up winning out. You know, obviously I think Coronado is still a very good prospect. term. But I think Zeri's season in general was a very positive thing for Flamesfants. How about some of the other guys they've taken in recent drafts? Samuel Hansick, Matt Coronado, anyone kind of separating themselves in one way or another from that bunch? Seems like kind of a lot of a similar type, frankly. Yeah, I think that's why you were happy to see them get Zane Perreck in this past draft, because I think they've drafted a lot of force, in particular wingers. And, you know, it was nice to see them address a premium position in this past draft.

Hansick season really didn't go as planned. As you know, I was a big Hansik guy going into his draft, but obviously missed a lot of the year due to injury. Then he came back, he didn't really score a significant level. You still see the sides and the skating and there is, you know, some good off-puck traits that he has. And I do like this player still, but you are looking at him hoping, man, yeah,

I really hope you score more next year because it was, I would say his season was at least a little bit concerning. All right, let's move out of number 18 in Dallas, and no secret who the headliner is here. Wyatt Johnston looks like Dallas has found a potential number one center in the late first round. Yeah. And obviously, the Wyatt Johnson story is a very unique one in that he didn't play it all in his draft year because of COVID and the OHL being shut down. And he had a growth spurred and didn't play power play time in his U18 World Championships. The only time he played in his draft year.

But I do think he would have played all year in his draft year. he probably would have gone very high in the draft and it would reflect the kind of player that Dallas got, which is a guy who I think looks like a star NHL forward. He's extremely skilled, extremely intelligent. He competes hard, maybe not the fastest player in the world, but everything else about his game is, you know, I would say good to excellent. And you just saw how good he was in the playoffs for Dallas. And it's a really exciting player to get. And that's the kind of player that helps you keep that contending window open, even as some of their other players,

like Jamie Bang, like Tyler Sagan, head to the wrong side of the age spectrum. Dallas did really well in that 2021 COVID draft to get both Johnson, 23rd pick, and also in the second round to get Logan Stankov and another guy who is now starting to make his mark on the NHL team. I think that U18 World Championships will be a really interesting thing to dissect in a couple of years from now, because you go back to that, I mentioned Johnson. He didn't really play very much in terms of a role for Canada, even though I thought he played well in the tournament. I thought Stancovin's tournament in general was very disappointing. He scored a big goal in the medal round.

Otherwise, I remember talking to the scouts there who were like, I remember telling some of my scout friends that I thought he was an excellent prospect. And he didn't play very well there. And they're like, what are you talking about? He's small. It's not dynamic. There's nothing here. And that's why I think part he felt in the second round.

But he's super skill. He's super competitive, tenacious, plays with pace. I think he has all the traits you look for in a small four. If he's going to make it, he's got to have X, Y, and Z. And I think he has X, Y, Z, A, B, and C. He is a very talented player who is a very likable player as well in terms of the way he plays. And I think he's going to have a very long and successful in H.L. All right.

The other question I had with Dallas, and I agree with the order that you have these players in, number three, Leon Bischel and number four, Maverick Bork. I was surprised to see a tier gap there, though. I think a lot of people kind of consider Bork closer to that Stankovin level, but you have him one tier below that. I think the difference for me is the skating is that I think Stankov is an excellent skater. And Bork, I do wonder how his foot speed is going to hold up in the NHL. I know he had the big year in the American League this past year. He was one of the top scores in the American League this past year.

He's extremely intelligent. He's a reliable two-way player at that level at the junior level. I do wonder how a 5-10 guy who's not really a burner is going to handle the NHL if he's if he has to be in a scoring role. So, you know, maybe some Dallas fans will disagree with my assessment, but I do have some trepidation of projecting him into the NHL. All right. And let's wrap up for today with the number 17 team, the Nashville Predators.

A lot of interesting names here, but let's start with Matthew Wood, who was the first round pick from 2023. I don't know that his year went totally according to plan, but where are you at on him one year later? Kind of where I was going into his draft year, which is confused by him a little bit in that you see a 6-4 winger who has a tutus skill,

who can rip a puck, who on his best games looks like a really impactful and talented player. You wonder about the skating. You want about his consistency and it's compete at times. And you just wonder,

what is he going to be at the end of the day? He's transferring to Minnesota next year, so we'll see how he does in a new environment, maybe around some more talented players. And he should be an important player for Team Canada at the world juniors. But I would say, as I was going into his draft, I'm a little uncertain on what Matt, what's future is going to be.

One of the players who seemed to kind of break out and raise his stock this year, I guess, was Luke Evangelista. Obviously played the full season pretty much with Nashville, close to a half point per game. What can Predators fans expect from Evangelista going forward? I think of what they've seen so far, which is he's a really skilled player and a very competitive player. He plays his guy, despite not being the biggest guy, plays without fear. gets to the inside, wins battles. And he's a guy who's developed really well. I wasn't an evangelist fan at all.

Going into his draft year, I thought, too small, slow, not dynamic, not going to make it. And I was wrong. He was one of the leading rookie scores in the NHL this past season. And he's proven to be a very nice second round pick for Nashville. It's kind of an interesting system overall here for Nashville. Really deep, even if you go beyond some of these top names that we're talking about, there's some kind of guys who quietly have interesting little profiles here.

I like Zach LaRue's playoffs with Milwaukee this year when I saw. on Teddy Stiga, Reed Schaefer, Andrew Gibson, the right shot that you they acquired from Detroit. There is some real depth growing in the system now, Corey. Yep, I agree. I think it's just about getting the high side from some of those guys. You wonder, like, you know, is Camel going to be a high side guy? Is he going to score in big numbers?

Can fetch coffee, like this really imposing two-way center at the NHL level? You know, is Tanner Mollandike too small? Can you find a way to become a really good two-way defense in the NHL? Kemet would find that consistency. You hope one of those guys will hit that high side for him. But I just don't know who that is yet. We're going to wrap this episode for today. We'll be back tomorrow with teams number 16 through 9 on Corey's list.

We'll talk to you that.