The Athletic Hockey Show - NHL re-drafts: 2020, 2021, 2020, 2023

Episode Date: October 18, 2024

On this week’s Prospect Series episode of The Athletic Hockey Show, Max, Corey, and FloHockey’s Chris Peters deep dive into Corey’s NHL re-drafts of the 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 classes. Hosts: Max Bultman and Corey PronmanWith: FloHockey’s Chris PetersExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Corey Prondman and Flow Hockey's Chris Peters for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Today we're talking redrafts, Corey. You had a series of redraft articles that came out this week going through the 2020, 2021, 2021, 2022, and 2023 drafts. So the four most recent drafts besides the 24. We've had a little distance, more on some than others. but I think it's a pretty fertile set of topics here for us to get to. And I want to start with 23 because I think when you get to these most recent drafts,

there's the least stable, the most potential for movement. And right off the top here, one of the things I want to talk about is the fall of a couple of players in this draft, David Reimbocker and Dalbore Dvorsocki. Sure. And I know right at the start here that there are some people who love this concept. It's reflected in our numbers when we see these articles go up. And there are some people, based on just the feedback I see and comments and my text messages, that absolutely hate this concept because they feel like it's an indictment or a,

basically a review of team decisions that when they haven't had enough time to play out. And that to me is not what this exercise is. You know, just like how when we do a draft ranking in September and August, that's going to change a lot to when we get to June. Nobody had Jet Lechenko in their first round in August or September, but yet he's going to be in the opening night lineup for the Philadelphia Flyers, you know, 12 months later. So I think that's what that exercise is.

It's just showing how players' progressions have either gone well or not well in the year, two, three years since their drafts. And so we get to Ryan Bacher and Dvorski, both guys who I had rated in the top 10 in their draft years. and in the years since their draft, they both had good years. They're still very good players or I think we'll have NHL careers

and maybe even very successful NHL careers. But Ryan Bucker didn't have a great year in Switzerland. He had a much better end to the year when he went over to Laval of the end of the year and he looked really good in the American League there for a couple of weeks. But his year in Switzerland, I thought like, you know, when I watched him in his draft year, I saw a big guy who could skate, he got offense,

but I thought there was some real bite in his game. He was just really competitive, two-way defensemen. And I didn't see that player as much. last year. If he goes to the Vorski, same thing. I thought, yeah, his skating is an issue,

but this guy's really skilled. He could shoot it. He makes plays. And this guy's competitive. He carries a team on his back. This is the guy who gives it as all on a nightly basis. I didn't see that guy last year.

I didn't see it what he was in the pros. Didn't see it the World Juniors. Even I watched him in Sudbury and he was lighting it up. I didn't think the compete level stood out on a consistent basis. And thus, I lowered their evaluation. Maybe that changes in the coming year.

Maybe I'm way off being too harsh. maybe I saw the wrong games, but that's what I saw. That's what made me change my evaluations. Chris, do you think I'm off on either of those evaluations? You know, I think it's fair. In Reinhbacher, I'm in agreement. And I had him, you know, in his draft season, I had him at number 10 on my list. And so the fact that he's even lower than that maybe is a little bit of a surprise.

Obviously now he's dealing with an injury that will leave him out long term. And, you know, significantly can contribute to. his NHL timeline. Dvorzky is going to be the one that I think is really interesting because I always have felt like Dvorski's been kind of at the forefront as this guy that everybody knows is this dynamic, you know, talent and that, you know, the work ethic and the different things. Like if he doesn't work in the HL, the game will pass him very quickly. So I think that this is an opportunity for him to really put things forward.

I think the skill level is still very good. When he does compete, he's a very engaging and solid play. player. And I think ultimately, I feel like he'll rebound this year relative to where you have them in the redraft. But I don't think it's out of the question based on what we've seen to move those players, you know, from where they are. I think that they're very fair.

You know, I think the other thing that people have to understand, too, when we do redrafts is that it's not always about the player. It's about what happens around them, too. Is Dvorstkey like a six one version of like Dylan Strom? That could be. I mean like that's, but I mean that's, you know,

Dylan Strom's a good player. Dylan Strom's had what? He's had at least one 70 point season, right? I think divorcee's a good player. Yeah. And that's the thing is Corey saying, well,

he's not a top 10 pick. He's only eight slots lower. And as we get to this stage, when the things start to tighten and you start to see where players are, it's really not that far away from what he initially was. So I don't really, these were ones where I was like, yep, that makes sense to me. And then we've obviously seen other guys go to the exact opposite direction,

which is why players like you, like those two, fell in this particular grouping. And one of those guys is Callum Ritchie, who seems like he may be on the Colorado Avalanche for some amount of time this year. Corey, you talk about this as kind of a moment in time, a snapshot of how they've developed. What have you seen in Calam Richie to move him up to? I believe it's 13 on this list. Well, Calam Richie was a really addictiveful evaluation during his draft year. He had some injuries he was dealing with. He was really inconsistent. He wasn't the guy we thought he was going to be after his great 16-year-old year,

after his great Link of Gretzky in the summer in his draft year, he was just okay and it did well, the U18 Worlds. But when he was healthy last year, again, he started the year with an injury. But when he was healthy, he looked. fantastic. I thought he was one of the very best players in the CHL, helped carry Oswald deep into the playoffs. And you watch him, he texts all the boxes, he's big,

he can skate, he's full of skill, he's creative. There's a lot that I really like from an NHL perspective. So, I mean, you know, a more consistent Calum Richie was a guy who people thought was going to be a top 10, top 15 pick in his draft year. I think he showed more of that version

last year in the Ontario. So it doesn't surprise me, given all the different scenarios, I was dealing with the depth in their lineup right now, that he's made a real push there. And I wouldn't be surprised if he stays up with them all season, quite frankly. Another guy who's moved up a little bit, was already a top 10 pick,

but Nate Danielson, this is a player you've been high on going back to his draft year. But I think there will be some people surprised to see him move up when he kind of still has these questions around, you know, we see the traits, we see the skating, we see the sense, we see the detail. It just hasn't still yet really turned into significant production outside of that playoff run in Portland.

Yeah, and that's a fair criticism. I still see that I think the tools are all really good. And that's not just the playoff run, but I think even the second half, it was in Portland. It was still really good, too. I just checked a lot of boxes for me. He has all the traits, the size, the skating,

the compete, the skill. He does need to score. And if he doesn't score, then maybe I overshot the skill there in some parts. I didn't watch a lot of his camp real closely, more focus on Marco Casper and just how he was playing Max? Like, do you think, like, I know he didn't make the team or come close to making the team, but what did you think of his camp?

Well, I thought he was good. And I think it's the same kind of things that we see from Nate Danes. Like, you watch him on the ice and you go, wow, you don't really see, you know, 18, 19 year old kids, you don't make that play or look that confident or have that kind of detail. I don't think he really ever got. I will say an opportunity with maybe one opportunity with real NHL line mates. It was a lot of skating with PTO guys and HL guys.

and, you know, kind of flashes me back to his time in Brandon, where the narrative was, you know, he's making these plays, but someone's got to finish him or, you know, he's, he's in his right spots, but, you know, he passes it to a guy and the guy dumps it deep. I did see a lot of that. So I was impressed by Danielson. So I think he had a good camp. It just wasn't a wow camp. And to your point, didn't really come close to making it.

We talked about risers and fallers here, though. And there's one guy who I think is going to be a topic of interest on this list who, has hardly moved at all for you. And that's Zach Benson. And I know last year, there were a lot of people when Zach Benson made the Sabers who were ready for you to move him way up the list right away. You still have him a year later. What kind of keeps you in that place with Benson? He's not low on the list. He's at 12 for you. But 13 in your draft ranking of him 12 now. Why is he still in that place? I mean, I think the evaluation is still most of the same. He's still at a really, really skill player. He is a super competitive

player, but I do wonder where we're going to be in three, four, five years with a guy who is not an amazing skater at that frame. Like, his offense needs to be so amazing with that kind of skill set. To I think justify getting him over somebody like Ryan Leonard or Will Smith or like just some, you know, into that type of territory to like, you know, to justify that kind of, you know, slot, his impact needs to be so great offensive. and I think he is really, really talented offensively. I don't get, like, when I watch the Smith or I want to watch Mitch Cove,

I don't get the special offensive feelings out of Benson like I do from those players. You know, I compare him just like Gay Perot. I think it's a spot or two ahead of the list, who also is not a great skater, is also not that big. Like, I think the analysis on those players are very identical. Like, they were a struggle for me in their draft year, which one is better. And even now, obviously Benson just played in the NHL, but, I mean, I think, you know, Gabe Perot dominated Kalataki.

He could have done something mostly similar to what Benson did in the NHL last year, my opinion. Maybe Chris thinks I'm off. I see him raising his hand like he wants to come at me. No, no. I was actually, I was going to raise the point about Gabe Perot. And I think that you kind of explained it with, you know, the dynamic offensive traits, the supercomputer in his brain that allows him to make plays and to read plays. And, you know, because I think Benson was always a player where I felt like the hockey sense was a high-end trade as well. Um, you know, so I, I think that, yeah, in terms of impacting game, I, the one thing I'll say,

the difference between Perrault and Benson, I do feel like Benson finds ways to impact the game away from production with that, that competitiveness with his ability to be disruptive. Um, he's not exactly a guy that's going to overpower anybody, but he can be disruptive, which I think is, is a pretty, um, a pretty valuable trait in terms of, you know, overall game impact. Um, but, you know, I, you look at. what Perot has done with the, with the production that he had last season and the things that he does at really every step, there's just never been a situation where he didn't put up a million points,

it feels like. And, you know, I think that that's really, for me, going to be an interesting debate between those two players, you know, but I think you look at guys like Perot,

you know, you're Perot and Leonard in particular, you know, I think that they probably, even though they accomplished it outside of, the NHL. It's a comparable repute in terms of what Benson is as a player at this point. Let's take a quick break right there. We'll come back and do 2022. All right. Let's go now to the 2022 draft class guys. And really, going back to this draft year,

you two have had a long running debate. Neither of you finished with Shane Wright at number one on your list, even though that had been the consensus a lot of the way. Cori, you finished with you're on Slavkovsky, who ends up going number one. Chris, you finished with Logan Cooley, who ends up going number three. You had a spirited debate at this time last year over these two players. Corey, I can see you're still on Slavkovsky looking at your list. Chris, are you still banging the Logan Cooley drum as the best player in this class? I am, too, mind you.

Yeah, well, Corey put him two, which is, you know, fine, if not one spot lower than he should be. I mean, you know, so here's the thing. Like, Logan Cooley, to me, they're obviously different players. are going to do different things. We'll see if Cooley ever ultimately becomes a center at the NHL level and how that changes the dynamic of this discussion, you know, a full-time center, a guy that you can use in a variety of situations. I mean, you know, we talked a lot about, you know, Yuri Slovkovsky popping last year, which he absolutely did. He did. He played better. And in the end, he had 50 points in 82 games, 20 goals, 50 points in 82 games. How many did Logan

Cooley had? 20 goals, 44 points. So a six point difference. We're not talking about a lot of difference. And we're also talking about a guy that had less NHL games or fewer NHL games under his belt by that point. So to me, I still think it's always with Cooley, it's always been a bet on upside. I've said it from the beginning that he's the most dynamic player in that draft. I think that he will be the most productive player, potentially from that draft. And in the end, I think he'll be really one of the faces of the franchise of the new Utah Hockey Club. So that that's all helpful. What I will say is that I have, when I, when I did my first ranking, I had Slavkovsky

fourth. I would say that I have definitely moved him into that number two spot now. And obviously there's a size difference. There's, there's, you know, a style of play difference. I think both of them are going to be really good players. I think they're probably going to be neck and neck for a long time. But I do think that to me, Logan Cooley is on the. path towards a more, I just think he's going to be a more impactful player overall, even though

I now believe that Slavkovsky has the ability to be a top line performer for his team. And I have a little bit of a gap there, just the way I see between Slavkovsky and Kuli, it's a minor gap. Again, that's just all based on my evaluation. But when we did this this time last year, and I said the same thing. It's one, I haven't won at Kulay, too. I think there's a little bit of a gap when we had a discussion with Chris and then with Scott Wheeler. I don't remember the exact wording, but it was kind of insinuated that I was a little off my rocker for saying that, which, you know, we can have disagreements. We can have disagreements all the time.

I guess the question now for Chris is, do you think it's off your rocker to say that Slavkovsky is the best player in that draft? No, it's not off your rocker. It's just incorrect. That's all. Again, we can have disagreements. It means it's fine if Chris wants to be wrong. I just want him to be respectful when he's wrong as all.

Yeah, exactly. I thought that was a very respectful way of saying no. What I find interesting when I look at this class is it's still, when you look at the top 10, yeah, some of the orders are jumbled up slightly. It's still the same guys. And really the only, I guess we're going to call it like a disruptor here is that Pavel Minchikov from Anaheim has moved his way into the top four for you, Corey, into a tier with Shane Wright.

And he's really the only big meaning. full shakeup within the top of this class. And I think that's just based on how he looked last year in the NHL. I know he got hit, he was injured for a part of the year, but he looked really impressive in the NHL with this, not just a production, but just the way he's able to make plays with his skating, his skill, the way he attacks. It looks like it translated from the OHL into the NHL seamlessly.

You've got to wonder whether they're overreacting a little bit to the sample size of it, but it was such an impressive performance. by Mitchikov given his age in the league and just given how toolsy he is, you just kind of think he's going to keep developing and become a really significant offensive player in the NHL with his size and his skating. Maybe he won't be a premier defender, be able to defend well enough. And I just think like when you look at the other defensemen in that range,

whether it is Simon Nemitz, whether it's David Eurechik, whether it's Kevin Gorsenski, all great, great defensemen. I don't think any of them really have special qualities in the, the way that Mitchikov does. Maybe Nemesh does in the way he thinks the game and Kortinski in the way he skates, but Mitchikov definitely has a little bit more of a dynamic flair to his game, you know, kind of similar to the way like Luke Hughes was coming up as a prospect. And with that in the top 10, you know, Marco Casper is a guy who I think people over the last year or so in particular, maybe even a little bit going back to that draft, I think have maybe expected to drop off. And he's still

holding pretty steady there. He went at number 80s at 9 on your list. And as you said, Corey, he had a really strong preseason. I thought coming into the cut day that he had a real chance to make the Red Wings, they end up sending him down. But a player who certainly showed very well this preseason. Yeah. And I think, you know, when it comes to evaluating draft classes, unless you're talking about a really special draft class, I think fans can be surprised by how quickly the premier talent can drop off and how many legit good players there are in a given draft year. You know, we look at Casper and I look at some of the players. I have ranked right below and particularly forwards. You like you like to do maybe a little bit closer analogies between

positions. You know, I have Danila Yorov right below him. Ivan Mirosacchenko right below him, Brad Lambert, Connor Geeky, Jimmy Snuggarood. You know, one of their cases to definitely be ahead at Casper. You know, is it there, you know, Mirosacchenko's couple of NHL games he's played? It's not like any of those players have had, you know, these amazing years in the NHL or just your, you know, Mirzacchenko and Lambert look good in the American League, but they weren't just, you know, dominant in the, in the American League by any means. So, you know, you can have your reasonable debates. Maybe he should be two, three spots lower. Maybe you move that, maybe you move from those forwards up, maybe you move Elaine Hudson up. But he deserves still to be a guy

you think of as a future top six forward at just the way the way he plays or into the high compete level. And if the offense he showed in Cam translates it all into the American League this year, I think you're going to be really excited about this player. All right. So there's a couple of guys who I do think we need to talk about falling. And I know I said the top 10 was pretty much unscathed, but there is one exception to that. And that's Matt Savoy, who obviously got traded this summer.

He checks in at number 30 on your list. And really, we could extend that conversation to Rucker McGroarty, too, who's right behind. him and originally went at number 14 in this draft. Yeah, Savoy's a kind of a tricky one. If you look at his numbers in the Western League last year, people will be like, what are you talking about? He didn't, he's not a follower. He looked great.

He dominated the Western League last year. Two points per game. He's great. He's this top 10 pick. He's been the super hype junior player for years. But if you actually, you know, looked at this player when you've watched him in junior the last few years, be it, you know, in the Western League or the world juniors or now even at the NHL camps, I still think he's.

I still think you see a really, really talented player. He's a great skater. He's very skilled. He can finish plays. He competes hard. There's a lot of things that like. But when you talk about guys who are that size, 5-8, 5-9, 5-9 and a half, whatever he is, you want them that to be really good.

You want them to be special. Like, you know, pull you out of your seats dynamic. And I haven't felt that way about Savoy for at least two or three years. from when I've been watching him closely. And it makes me hesitant to look at this player and say, you're going to be a top six forward in the NHL at that size. The bar he has to clear is really, really high. You know, in that same draft, we have Lane Hudson,

and we've had somewhere going on 2 million Lane Hudson debates so far on this podcast. But when you watch Lane at that size, he gives you that special feeling that he could reach that level, despite his physical limitations. I have not personally seen that from Savoy in the last year or two, Chris. I'm not sure what you've seen. Yeah, I tend to agree with you. And I think you look at, you know, you wonder, you look at certain things.

And, you know, since he's now with Edmonton, you know, Kyler Yamamoto had a really similar kind of junior experience. You know, like that cop, actually. Yeah, yeah. That's like, that's. And we, you get excited with the junior experience. I mean, the other thing that you have to remember about Savoy was that was his fourth, basically almost, I mean, he also got a ton of WHL games. Yeah, fifth, he got a ton of WHL games as an underager.

Fifth junior season. The expectation should be an absolute dominant player. He wasn't one of the best players in the W.HL. He was a very good player in the WHL, but there were. better players than him last year. And I think that the other thing is, too, is, is to Corey's point, is there enough there, there beyond the speed. And, and, and, and, and he does have skill.

I expect him to do decently well in the A.HL this year, but this is going to be a really testing, this is going to be a real test for him with Bakersfield, um, is can he do what he did in junior against men, um, when the pace is higher, when the players are stronger when it's harder to break through to the middle ice because that's that's going to be the question. So this was a faller that, you know, I think on its face, you say, wow, well, how is that possible? But I can absolutely see the thought process there. And I, you know, you also look at the world juniors last year. And Canada as a whole wasn't very good, but Savoy was essentially a non-factor. You know, so that was, that was, that was-

And he was heard a little bit there too. That's true. That's a fair point, a fair point. What about McGority? He comes in, he makes the penguins here, I mean, or at least it seems he was going to start with the penguins. I know it wasn't maybe the biggest splash of the entire preseason here, but this is a player who I think had a very successful college career, Corey, and now is one of the earlier guys in this draft to make the NHL. Yeah, obviously, the compete is a really appealing part of his game, and he put up big numbers in college last year. I guess, Chris, the question is, you know, with those feet, is he going to score enough in the NHL, given the fact he's probably going to struggle with the pace? I think, you know, this was one I was a little surprised about. I mean, I've never made many, you know, secret about, haven't made much secret about how much I like Rucker McGrody as a player.

You know, I thought that he's shown in the last two years that he can play. he can keep up. Like he can keep up. He's not going to, he's not going to create separation. He's not going to do a lot of things. But I think his, his ability to get into the right spaces,

his ability to play aggressively, his ability to play physically, all are things that, that stood out to me last year as ways that he can mitigate the, lack of feet. I think he knows how to play with good players. He spent a lot of time with Adam Fantilli,

fantilly had a lot more pace than, than, than McRorty did. And he found a way. Gavin Brindley was another guy who has a lot more pace. And that was, again, for him, you know, I think that he proved that he can be effective with those players.

I think that his hockey sense is such that he's going to manage it. I think the other thing is that you put him in a situation to succeed with the penguins. You give him the right line mates. He's going to have success early. Now, I would not, I will not be shocked if he ends up playing sometime in Wilkesbury, Scranton this year. I think that it might actually be better in the end. The Penguins just made the decision.

They had, you know, Harrison Brunic had a great camp, but they sent him back to Junior because they know that that was best for his development. I think if McGority struggles, I think that they'll have to make the same decision about him. And you can't think about the trade that you made. It'll be really interesting to see, you know, ultimately where he ends up. But I don't really have as many concerns about the foot speed. at this point.

Real quick here, when we get to the 2020 and 2021 drafts, we're going to talk about the impact that the COVID years had on those drafts. But I think in 2022, the big story was really about two of the Russian players. And that's Danil Yorov and Ivan Muresh Nishashenko. And where they go three years earlier with the same resumes is a question that we can't really answer. But what we can say here, Corey, looking at your list, is that they're both higher than they went on that day in 2022. And Mirza Chanko obviously had a major health question there too with the cancer diagnosis in the middle of a season. But on top of that was the, I think that was the first year where teams were heavily considering the invasion of Ukraine into their analysis of these players and implications on borders and whether you get these players out and all these other unknowns that teams were debating going into the draft.

but you look a couple of years later, Marisa Chanko's been very good in the American League. He's played in the NHL. Looks like he can hold his own. His health looks to be not really something that's been cropping up in terms of any real issues of late since he's returned to play. And then you have Danila Yorov,

who was one of the better forwards in the KHL last year, a big part of a team that now won it all, very toolsy player with his skating and his skill, a guy who could play both ways, he could play some center now at that level. I didn't even know he's going to be a center when we were going into his draft year. So definitely two guys, I think, especially in the case of Europe, would go a lot higher if you redid that draft.

All right. Let's go down to 2021. And we just teased it in the last segment. I think this was the peak COVID impact draft year. And there's some of these guys that went really high that are still really high for you, Corey, right? Like you still have Owen Power and Maddie Baneers and Mason McTavish. All those were the top three picks in that draft. They're all still in the top five.

The number one pick is Luke Hughes. and we will get to that. But I want to start with the guy who I think embodies the challenges of the COVID-scouting year. And that's Wyatt Johnston, who goes, I think, at 23 in the real draft. And in this, he's all the way up to three for you, Corey. Yeah. And, you know, that was the year of, you know, just watching guys predominantly on video and particularly digging into their underage video.

And, you know, Wyatt Johnson was a point of debate in his draft year because what I saw him when he was 16-year, years old, he was 5 foot 11. When he showed up the U-18 World Championships, he was like 6-1, 662. And he played a checking role. He was a third-line center there for Canada, killing penalties. But when I watched him, when he was underage, he was a powerplay guy. He was a playmaker. He was a guy at the U-17 challenge, for example, for Canada, who was running their power play off the flank and making plays. And I thought of him as an offensive guy. And it was just a very challenging environment. I mean, if you really go through that entire first round, after the no-doubt name,

the teams that people have known about for years. They were premier talents. There's a lot of mistakes there in the middle of the late of the first round. And I don't want to mean mistakes in that teams like really screwed up. They should have known better. Nobody knew better. Nobody had any data. It was a very challenging draft season.

And, you know, as it ages, the challenges have become very clear that if you don't play in your draft, your data is very unreliable in terms of projecting you to the National Hockey League. All right. So I tease it at the beginning there. Number one, I think, is a topic we really need to hit. And that's Luke Hughes at the number one spot of this list. He goes four.

It's not like nobody knew Luke Hughes was good. But, Corey, in your mind, he's kind of separated himself as the guy in this class. In part, just because of just how he looked in his rookie year in the NHL, but the toolkit's always been very attractive. For a guy, his size to skate the way he does, I mean, I, which struggle to think of more than one or two players in the NHL who I think has that combination of athleticism. And then you combine the fact that he was showing a lot of offense,

he makes a lot of plays. Defensively, he's just okay, but you think with just how big and rangy he is, like that's going to come to at least be good enough as he matures as a player. And, you know, when we're projecting guys forward, I value special traits. I value unique players and dynamic qualities.

And, I mean, it's hard to really think of many players over the last decade who has teenagers or now 2021-year-olds look the way Luke does. And I think he has a very bright future in this game. Two guys, Chris, that Corey has moving way up from the second round all the way into the top 10. It's a pair of wingers. I guess you could maybe call Logan Stankevin in a center. But I think I see him as a winger long term. and Matthew Nyes. Both of those guys went mid to late second round.

Now here they are in the top 10. Do you view this as just an evolution that nobody really saw coming? How much did COVID impact this? I know obviously Nyes was in the USHL, so he still got a pretty good run here. What do you kind of attribute those rises to? And do you agree? Yeah, I definitely agree with them popping up.

I mean, I think that there's still a number of players in this class where the jury is still out, but there are two guys that I think are trending in a very positive direction. I mean, in Nyes's case, you're looking at a guy who's probably playing on the top line for Toronto, you know, and how valuable he will be to them if that works out as well as it can. And so I think that that's big, you know, the thing about Nyes, the knock on him in his draft year seemed to be more hockey sense related. There were some pace issues and things like that. But really, everybody knew the frame. They knew the shot.

They knew the scoring ability. and it was really evident, I think even like that first World Junior camp right after he was drafted, it was like, oh, this guy is better than pretty much everybody here. You know, so that was a really eye-opening experience. He's a tremendous athlete. The question that I'm going to have long term for him is, where's his ceiling? Is it as high as some of these other players? Meanwhile, you've got Stankovin who does not have the size advantages that Nyes did,

but no matter where he's been, he's produced. I mean, we're talking about a CHL player of the year, a guy that was one of the top scores in the HL and likely would have been the MVP if he stayed there all season. You know, it makes an immediate impact for the Dallas stars. And, you know, I think both of these players had clear trades at the time, but they also had clear risks. And so I think that that was something that could only be mitigated with time.

And meanwhile, Stankovan is one of those guys that you just look at them and you say, you know, we know he's small, but he's still pretty, you know, he was impressive then. He was an impressive rookie in the WHL. He did a lot of things, you know, but teams were still scared off by that. And in the end, I think that he will, you know, he's making a great case already that a lot of people made a mistake on him. Off camera, Max and I were having a good conversation. So I think he was a little surprised that Ken Johnson was still, I think he was 11 or 12 on my list. And part of that, just like Kent's just so talented as skills elite.

And, you know, he has, I think he gets pushed around a little bit too easily. His skating is just okay. There's some, there's some issues there. But I think one of the reasons he is still so high is kind of as we discussed earlier, is that this draft class kind of looks a little ugly. Not only was there not great data on these players going into the draft, the age group in itself may not have been the best overall too. So it's some compounding variables because you look after Johns

and just among forwards. There aren't really many guys left that are actually guys who have looked like they can establish themselves in the NHL. It's basically just William Eklund and Cole Sillinger after him. And I would look at Johnson versus Sillinger. Johnson went ahead of Sillinger to the same team. Mind you, things have changed there. But you're looking at the skill.

You're hoping it projects out. And you can have arguments about Eklund versus Johnson as skilled wingers. But this is just kind of an ugly looking draft class as it stands. a couple of years out. And we'll see how things change over the next year or two. But it really looks like there's only like four, eight, nine really exciting players from this draft as it stands at the moment. All right.

Let's bring it home now, guys, with the 2020 draft. And I think we're to the point basically where this class is starting to stabilize from a redraft standpoint. We know Corey's got Tim Stutzel and Jake Sanderson up top there. Alexei Lafranier, I think, you know, maybe he's a guy who over the last year or so has moved about. But the big stories here continue to be, I think, the rise of two defensemen in particular. One is Alexander Nekishin, who Corey has at number four, has not yet debuted in the NHL.

So I do wonder, Corey, if you have a little bit of, you know, vulnerability or hesitants at all, putting him there. And the other being Brock Faber, who went in the second round now works his way into your top 10. To me, these are the stories of this kind of class. And COVID hit late enough in this year that I think you still got a pretty good scouting run at it. But it seems like things have stabilized. Yeah, and to your first point about Nikisha, and there's always risk when guys haven't played zero at NHL games in terms of projecting them into the league. When you look at what this guy is and what he's done in the KHL, he checks every box you wanted an NHL defenseman, and many of them with emphasis, he has offense, he skates well, he's super hard to play against, he's big. I mean, he's not a really good NHL player.

I don't know what any really good NHL players look like anymore. I can't wait until he busts and people just play that video. Twitter or something like that. In terms of favor, I'll be curious to hear what Chris has to say, because he's a really tough evaluation for me, because obviously he had a monster year last year, earned a huge contract. He's a fantastic skater, fantastic competitor. What's been interesting with favor is that all that offense that came in his game last

year, running the first power player from Minnesota, showing way more offense than he ever did at any other point in his life. my question is going to be, did they pay him all that money because they were expecting offense, or at least a high level of offense? And will that high level of offense persist when Z. Boyam eventually arrives on this team? Or even just with a healthy Jared Spurgeon this year. Well, here's what that, it's an interesting point. I would say the thing about Faber that has always been clear to me is he just knows how to play hockey.

Like he's just, he is a, he is a complete player. He can engage physically. He has a tremendous stick defensively. He's really good in positioning. His skating is outstanding. His edge work is, is tremendous as well. His ability to keep up with forwards and to create pressure. The thing is, is that, you know, in terms of his output last season, you know, 47 points.

I think that Faber has every, I feel fairly confident he's going to be a 40 point, 40 to 50 point defensemen on the regular. I think that that is reasonable. And whether or not it's with significant power play time, you know, we'll see exactly what all comes of that. But and your points about the offensive defensemen, the more offensive minded guys are better. But I think the thing is, is that for the foreseeable future, Brock Faber is going to play more minutes than any player on their team for, probably, I mean, he'll play more than Zeev. He'll play more than anybody. And it's going to be, he's the lynchpin.

He's the guy that is going to make everything go from the back end. And so I think you're not necessarily paying him based off of the point production. I think you're paying him based off of the percentage of the game. He's an elite defender. His defensive game is outstanding. Yes. But, and that's, and that to me is. especially like if you can combine that with 40 to 50 points a season,

an incredibly valuable defense. You know, I think the deal, it'll be interesting. I would not be surprised if there's a little lag in terms of point production this season. I guess my concern is if Ziva arrives and he's when he's mature, let's say when he's 21, 22 years old and he's running that first power play and things are going as you hope.

It would when you drafted him. Things don't always go as you hope. Let's just say things go as you hope. and he's a legit first power play top four offense. What if, like, Faber's running like a 30, 35 point clip while still providing excellent defense is that, and that's kind of where I'm, like, struggling with the ratings. I still have him in the top 10 from that draft offense. I have them, like, I had some really, really good players, you know, really impactful players.

I have them really, really high. But then, like, the question is, like, rating him versus Lafranier, rating him versus Lucas Raymond, rating him versus Quentin Byfield. My question is, will he maintain the opportunities over the next five, seven, eight years to provide more value than those players are who are going to get every opportunity? Yeah, I just think he's going to become one of the most valuable five-on-five defensemen in the NHL. I mean, like, I think we're talking about a guy that's a true number one defenseman that's going to be playing. And even I just, I just don't see them dipping beneath that 35 point range in the, in the, in the, The hypothetical that he does is he still playing 28 minutes a game?

Is he still, is he still, because that's the thing is, I think the percentage of the game that he impacts is greater than what I think Alexei LaFranierre is going to generate, regardless, even if he's a super high point producer. So I, like, for me, Faber is a top four player in this class for me. And that's, and so he's right up there in that, Nkishin LaFranier, you know, you have Jarvis up there as well. I think that he is because of the totality of the game that he impacts. But to your point, like $8 million defenseman or, you know, whatever they are, the, they, they tend to be in the 650 to 60 to 70 point range more, more frequently. I just think that Faber impacts the game in so many, so many ways. All right. So that's a good kind of transition point here to one of the defensemen who has dipped a little bit, and that's Jamie Drysdale, I drafted at 6th overall initially. He's still pretty high on this list, Corey, at number 16. But I think, you know, and Anaheim has obviously traded him already. So he's been traded for Cutter Gautier. I think what Philly fans will want to know is what path do you see forward here for Jamie Dreissel? What does he project as to you in the long term, even if he's behind? I think they're okay, probably going to be okay with him being behind someone like Brock Faber. for example. And I think he's a tough poor offenseman in the

NHL. He's an elite, elite skater. He has some offense in them. He can make a first pass. He has some skill. He's, you know, a competitive, high character kid. You're just, I think there's two risk factors there. One is his, you know, his size and the fact that in part, probably because of his side, he has been injured a couple of times already in his early career. And then you have what I think I would call outside of the feet, a lack of true standout trait, which is fine. He has one standout trait.

And it's great to have. And it's why I think he'll be a top four defenseman. But I don't know if with the puck, I would call him a true standout. We're like, oh, yeah, he's going to run a first power play in the NHL. I don't know if I quite see that player specifically. And I also wonder, like, in terms of, of the injury situation too. Like, I think you have to take that into account.

And it's been, I worry about the frame, you know, if it's, if it's starting to become an issue, you know, in terms of being able to stay on the ice. That's been, you know, we haven't seen it yet. I remember thinking at the time of this draft, this was like a really forward-driven draft. And so obviously talking about a couple of the guys who have moved up and dominated. and I think we're going to talk about another one in a little bit here. But let's talk about two of the four words who have slipped from the top of this group. One of them, I think, is the obvious. That's Alexander Holtz.

Now in Vegas, we'll see if he can kind of get things on the right track there. But the other is Colper Fetty, who is in Winnipeg, and I think is an important player for them, but still probably hasn't gone as you'd have hoped if you were drafting Cole Perfetti again back in 2020. Right. I think he's around, I think, 18 or 19 right now for me in this group. and, you know, Cole Profetti's major strength is his skill in his hockey sense. He is an outstanding playmaker, and it's, you know, the big debates about him in his draft year was you have this 5-10-and-a-half, 5-11 winger. He's not super physical. His skating is below NHL average.

But, man, he is so talented. He is so great with the puck. And, but it was a risky pick. Like, I remember, like, talking to scouts even at the time going to that draft or wondering whether he could miss, like, completely miss. and I never thought that. I thought that was a little harsh. But I think you look at him now as a guy who's had a couple of injuries. He scored in the NHL, but it hasn't been in massive numbers.

I had a good debate with our co-host, Scott Wheeler, a few weeks ago about Perfetti, because he saw where I was putting him here and he thought it was ridiculous. And I said, but I mean, you look at some of the forward I have ahead of him. I have JJ Petrka ahead of him, established legitimate score, who's been a top score on NHL. team. You have Dawson Mercer. It's been an important part of, at times, a playoff team in New Jersey.

You know, you have, now I have Carter Zeri once bought ahead. You could flip that if you want. You know, not unreasonable, but Zeri was really impressive in the NHL last year for Calgary playing big minutes for them. So then I think I look at Perfetti and it's like, well, you know, where does he slot in this mix of players? Should you get ahead of Marco Rossi? He had Marco Rossi had a big year last year in the NHL.

not an amazing skater too, but he found a way to produce and do so consistently. I don't know. Do either of you think I'm off here? I think I would have him ahead of Zeri because similar to what you kind of talked about with Kent Johnson of just you still know what that upside and that potential is because of the brain. And the good skater either. Yeah.

And the brain, I think with Perfetti is one of the, it's probably one of the smarter players we've seen come out in the four drafts that we're talking about here. So I think I'd still have them a little higher, but I don't think you're wrong to drop him. Yeah. And I would agree too. And I do think that the brain, the vision, the puck skills, you know, now that the contract situation is settled, let's see where things go with him. I still believe that, like, this is one where I feel like you may revisit it and he'll be

a little bit higher, but I don't think he's going to be a ton higher. You know, like I don't think it's going to be, but I still think he's got more ceiling to reach for. And that when we're getting, talking about these guys in the 2020 draft is they're getting closer to 23 and all these other things. You're saying, okay, if it hasn't happened now, is it going to happen kind of thing? And I still think we're in that Perfetti is still in that developmental phase of his career where there's more for him to reach for.

But I look at this and as a guy that had Perfetti very high, in fact, if I remember my draft board correctly, I had him ahead of Lucas Raymond on my final list. And he hasn't come close to that measure. You know, so like that's that's something. I have a lot of time for the player, but now you kind of see some of those concerns that were floated in his draft year were incredibly valid. We talked about this on the episode. I think it was last week, Max, and then what's the hardest things to project into the NHL?

It's the degree of offensive talent the player has. How smart is he? How skilled is he? because we could have figured out in their draft year that Brock Faber was an amazing skater and he's 511. We could have saw in their draft years that Colper Fetty was 511 and he's not a good skater. But we thought Colper Fetty is one of the smartest players I've ever seen. And he's super skilled.

He would have 110 points, whatever. He's going to have a monster offensive abilities as a pro. And Faber had no offense. He was like a second power play guy at times of the program. He was inconsistently on their power play. didn't get many points. He didn't get many points in college. Barely scored any goals.

He's like, oh, this guy's an offensive guy. But we missed upwards on favor's hockey. He says he's shown in the NHL he can make plays. He can run a power play. He can, you know, hit seams. There's some skill there. And with Perfetti, if he isn't one of the top and smartest players in the NHL, that profile looks very typical and not special enough to merit that

at 18, 17 minutes a night. And he may hit there if he gets a little bit more consistent with his help and just, you know, and just keeps continuous to develop, he could get there. But I think it just shows that when it comes to projecting players into the pros, it shows how hard it can be, how hard to project offense,

and you can miss in both directions. All right. One last player I want to talk about in this class. And it's a defenseman who I think also there's a little bit of broader application to this with Mason Lorry. And I think NHL teams target this profile in this part of the draft. He was a late second round pick. And I think that, especially if you can do it in the late second round, I think they'll do it a lot in the early second round too.

Big body with the length. And you're just hoping that the skating comes around well and there's a little bit of offense to it there. And it seems like that's kind of what's happened with Mason Lorry. Same thing I just said. When you watched Lerai when he was younger, you thought, man, this is a rough skater. But he's big and he's got some skill. Like, you saw some of the dangles he can pull off, the plays he made. But you're like, okay, you know, he's a, this is a draft plus one.

He was a reentry player. He had a good year. He looks talented. He's got a chance to play. Then he gets to the NHL. You're like, okay, he's not just skilled. This guy's really skilled. Like, he's, he's embarrassing NHL players as a rookie right now, as a defenseman with

that side. It's a really appealing package of traits. And, you know, we'll see what happens in the future, obviously, going into the second NHL season. but he looks like, he looks like an NHL defenseman. And even with his skating being, I would say, subpar, he's very talented and looks like he's going to have an NHL career. All right.

That's going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect series. You can catch more of Chris over at Flow Hockey and on his podcast, Talking Hockey Sense. We'll talk to you soon.