The Athletic Hockey Show - Olympic ice passes test weekend, but barely

Episode Date: January 12, 2026

Olympic hockey is set to begin in 25 days, but construction on the arenas in Italy has not been completed and problems with the ice surface persist, despite improvements. To that end, The Athletic’s... NHL insider Chris Johnston joins the show and gives his firsthand report about the situation on the ground from Milan. Plus, The Athletic’s Arpon Basu helps the guys break down the suddenly red hot Atlantic Division, and to close things out, Max and Laz discuss the false narrative surrounding Linus Ullmark’s leave from the Ottawa Senators after GM Steve Staios released a statement about it last week. Hosts: Max Bultman and Mark LazerusWith: Chris Johnston and Arpon BasuExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris FlanneryWatch full episodes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowJoin our Discord Server: https://discord.gg/VTm9VjkFSubscribe to The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is the athletic hockey show. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus for another episode of the athletic hockey show. Fun show on tap today. We're going to have Arpin Bassu join us in a little bit to talk about the Atlantic Division, which is shaping up to be one heck of a race to the finish line. But first, I want to go, as you were able to talk with Chris Johnson earlier, and he's over in Milan right now for the Olympic Ice kind of reveal the first test as they go through this. There's a tournament going on there.
Starting point is 00:00:49 and CJ's on site watching this. And it's certainly a big talking point right now around the NHL of exactly what shape this arena is going to be in, the ice particularly. So I'm curious to hear what CJ saw when he was over there. Yeah, I mean, obviously, if you don't have ice, you don't have a tournament. And the NHL players want to play
Starting point is 00:01:08 and they will play on almost any condition possible. It sounds like the ice is going to be okay and everything else is going to be an unmitigated disaster. All right. Well, let's go to that right here. This is Laz and Chris Johnson. All right, CJ. I want to start with a line in your most recent piece in the athletic,
Starting point is 00:01:23 where it was a quote from IHF President Luke Tardiv. He said, yesterday, the third game at the end, the puck was still sliding. So that's a good test. Is that how low the bar has gotten here that we're basically talking about like an air hockey table out of Dave and Busters? Bonjourno, Mark. That is true.
Starting point is 00:01:41 That is where we're at with this tournament. And, you know, I do think they, you know, Luke Tarif, he can incredibly claim some progress made over this test event because they did play seven games in a 51-hour window this weekend at the arena. And, you know, I think they demonstrated that hockey can be played on that ice in that building, which was a question. And really, there's still a ton of work to get done. And I'm sure we'll get into some of that to come here. But, you know, the reason they're celebrating the ice is that that was the one thing that truly could have derailed. this entire project at this point in time.
Starting point is 00:02:20 You know, I think that it's, it's been clear to the NHL and the NHLPA for, for a little while that this is not going to be perfect. They might get the building done, but they're not fully not going to finish it, if you know what I mean, if you understand the differentiation there.
Starting point is 00:02:34 But, you know, as long as there's ice and there's seating in the main bowl, which there are, you know, they're going to be able to have an Olympic tournament. And so, I think it was a positive step forward that they played that many games. And then the ice did seem to get back.
Starting point is 00:02:47 better is it was used a little more. But my goodness, it was truly stunning. I mean, this with no exaggeration to walk into that arena for the first time and see where it's at less than four weeks from the start of the games. I want to get into all that construction stuff and what's still left alone. But the ice is the most important thing. If there's ice, the players will play on it. They're not going to not play in the Olympics because they have to get dressed in a trailer outside of the building. They did that in Arizona for a couple of years. It's not that big a deal. You kind of set the hockey world on fire when you tweeted there was a giant hole. in the ice and in the first game and play had to kind of stop over a little while.
Starting point is 00:03:21 Take us through that. How big was this hole? And, you know, the NHL does this all the time where they create ice rings out of nowhere for the Winter Classic and the Stadium Series games. How different is it having to play so many games on the ice as opposed to just having to play one? Well, here's the thing. I don't even know how many games I've been to, but it's in the thousands of games I've been to between NHL, playoff games, Stanley Cup final games.
Starting point is 00:03:47 I covered 10 World Hockey Championships. have been to multiple Olympics in the past. I'd never seen a hole quite like that in the ice, which is why I characterize it as I did. I'll tell you openly that the organizers disputed my characterization of it as a giant hole. They were trying to say that there was a hole and it was a small hole. And it was a tweet in real time as well, to be fair.
Starting point is 00:04:10 It was a subjective judgment that I made while watching it. Was not an attempt to be sensational or to over-dramatize it. I actually have a photo that's going to appear in a story that isn't up at this moment, but we'll be up shortly. You know, you could see a giant soft spot. I'd say the size of like a big steak on the ice in that exact area right before that game started. It was, you know, a little bit into the first period.
Starting point is 00:04:34 You know, the game was delayed. You know, a few workers ran out. One of them had a big green watering can and was applying water out of the watering can to that exact spot on the ice. You know, I didn't get out. I wasn't on the ice myself. and at least one of the players said it wasn't that giant of a hole, but it was a hole in the ice.
Starting point is 00:04:53 I mean, anyway, you want to slice it here. And, you know, it turns out that, you know, the ice maker here, Don Moffat, you know, said that that is actually not an unusual occurrence because literally that game was the first time anyone was skating on the ice. I mean, and so that might be the one thing that I've ever, for all the hockey games I mentioned to you, I've been to, I might never been in an arena where it was literally, the first time someone was skating on newly made ice because obviously there's usually
Starting point is 00:05:22 more of a process of play here. I mean, the reason that was happening this late in the game is because they've been so far behind in construction. It didn't allow the ice to even start being made here until December 20th. There's a process that's involved with that. So it was significant enough they had to stop the game. The good news is they played six more games and two more periods after that point and there wasn't another stoppage. At least nothing as apparent as that that was made after that fact. So, you know, apparently this is part of what should be expected. But, you know, again, it was alarming in conjunction with the fact that that happened within two hours of the first time I'd ever stepped foot on the property. You know, I toured, you know, the secondary
Starting point is 00:06:05 areas of the arena that which are still very much under construction even at this moment or not even started yet. And so you couple it all together. And that's how I arrived at that tweet. Well, anyone who's ever skated knows that even a small rut in the ice can do some damage to someone skating. And these guys are, you know, the NHL guys going over there are multi-million dollar assets to a billion dollar corporation. So I really, I agree with any hold is a significant one on the ice. But it's good to hear that at least it's been getting better.
Starting point is 00:06:34 What about the rest of the rink here? What, like, just how barren is this facility beyond the ice? It's almost so long, like, I'm going to leave something out, because there are so many issues. Like, like, if you were someone who specializes in, you know, project management, say, like, if you just walked onto the site, like, I don't even know where you would start to prioritize what needs to be finished between now and the start of the first women's game, which is scheduled 24 days from now on February 5th, because the list is extensive. you know, a quick blast load on the ice is I did speak to a player. I was watching one of the games out, granted, it is the Italian second division, but these are still pro or semi-pro players. I mean, it's not like a beer league.
Starting point is 00:07:18 And this player in a three-on-three overtime literally just like fell. And I asked him about it afterwards, and he said, yeah, like the ice didn't hold for him. So, I mean, you know, it's a work in progress, the ice. And certainly in the early, those first couple games, especially, it was soft and you could see some issues. You know, as for the rest of the building, I'd say that the things that jumped out to me is, like there's no concession stands in this arena.
Starting point is 00:07:46 They literally, there's one that says sandwich bar and one that says burger bar. Like they put that on the wall and there was like a cutout for it, but they just drywalled over it. And then they drove food trucks in front of the building and they just let fans come and go. Like that's how people could get food or beer or what have you. I realize, look,
Starting point is 00:08:04 most people that are listening to this probably aren't coming over to the Olympics. It's not going to affect every fan's experience. But, you know, in terms of just hospitality on site, it was extremely barren. You know, to kind of fill you in, there's the main game rink where obviously this is the main arena that will house the games. There's 24 men's games scheduled here, eight women's games over that two and a half week period. There's supposed to be dressing rooms and a practice rink in a building beside the main arena. it's meant to have 14 dressing rooms and that would sort of be each team gets one dedicated room
Starting point is 00:08:38 and that's where they are permanently and effectively what they do is they can be over there and that's where they can practice and be really close to their room and then when they play a game, players do walk under a canopy between buildings similar to what was at Mullet Arena where the coyote used to play
Starting point is 00:08:54 and effectively they play it in the game rink and they just use small rooms that are there at the intermission. but it's not really like the team's dressing room if that makes sense so those rooms were finished like in the game ring those rooms and they are quite bare and they're small um but they're really only meant to be temporary rooms while you're playing the permanent dressing rooms only three of the 14 that are needed were even started at this point um the rest is not even like drywalled in at all and so they still have to finish really 14 dress rooms we're that to start 11 of them so i think that's significant like obviously the teams need a place
Starting point is 00:09:31 to put their gear to have stalls to, you know, each team personalizes it. We'll put up Canadian flags or U.S. flags or Swiss flags, what have you. So that needs to be done. The practice rink is not usable at this point in time. The ice, it only just started to be made over there and the lines painted on it as a Friday. There was actually a cord I could see sticking up through the ice. Like they still, that needs some work. And that's a really important thing here because there's so many games played in the
Starting point is 00:10:01 in-rink if and I you know it seems like they're going to get that done but if they didn't teams would have nowhere to practice basically during the Olympics so you know it's it's vital that they finished that inside the arena the host there was no hospitality suites that were evident at all they were all basically plastered over with with you know black bags and they literally had security guards at each one like they really didn't want anyone to look behind there so I didn't get a chance to see what what was behind there but you could tell us not much was done. The Media Tribune was not remotely finished.
Starting point is 00:10:35 There was no permanent safety bars in the second, you know, deck of the arena, essentially. No one was allowed to go up there. So there's a lot. Even the scoreboard, honestly, Mark, it's, you know, I grew up in a town of 15,000 at the time. It was like as small as the scoreboard in my arena and my home rank in Koeberg. You know, and one of the players even mentioned that he was out,
Starting point is 00:10:58 he was, you know, he was playing in a game. these were actual games. These were cup games in Italy. Like, they mattered. If you watched, like, the players were into it,
Starting point is 00:11:07 he was out protecting a lead in the final minute. And he said the scoreboard is so high, he couldn't see how much time was left. And it was so small. And so, you know, they're supposed to have a new scoreboard in here in three weeks time. That's much bigger.
Starting point is 00:11:20 But if they don't, yeah, I'm not making light of it. But, I mean, like you could be in a gold medal game, a two-one game, and a team can't even see how much time has left easily.
Starting point is 00:11:29 So that probably needs to be addressed too. And I'm sure I've left out a whole bunch of stuff here. It's crazy to think, I mean, as important as this tournament was, just to get some games on this ice, they needed those three days to build stuff. Like, there's still so much to do. Those are three precious, precious days of construction that they lost on the suit. You and I were both in Sochi. And I remember being like in the air on the way to Sochi and everyone's freaking out.
Starting point is 00:11:53 The hotels aren't ready. The rooms aren't ready. People are landing. They don't have shower curtains. They don't have windows. They don't have, you know, running water. in their rooms, but people don't realize, like, everyone made fun. I remember hashtag Sochi problems was a thing for a while.
Starting point is 00:12:06 Right. But people don't remember, the rink was gorgeous. Like both the rinks that they were right next to each other. They were easily accessible. The Bolshoi Ice Dome was a palace. It was a beautiful rink. It had been done years in advance. A year earlier, they had had a test tournament on it.
Starting point is 00:12:21 Like, just how unprecedented it. I feel like we always think the Olympics are thrown together at the last minute, and there's always hiccups like this. But this really feels unprecedented. the scale of an actual facility that's going to get the host one of the marquee events of the tournament. Yeah, I mean, I think the only precedent predates my time really as a full-time hockey reporter was the Turin games in 2006, which of course just happened to be here in Italy. But at that time, I actually spoke first story last month to the gentleman that was in charge of basically coordinating those games.
Starting point is 00:12:52 They actually moved them in two or three years out from Finland because they needed some new expertise on the ground. and basically they recognized it was not going in a good place. And he told me that they were within inches of disaster there, that like it went until the final minutes they're, you know, getting the rink ready. And it feels, at least to me right now, that's what you're going to see here. I'm not predicting disaster.
Starting point is 00:13:15 I do think that there will be some parts of this arena that do not live up to what you would expect for the standard of an Olympic competition. And, you know, we know in the hockey world how big this event is, both on the men's and women's side. I mean, from the men's side of it, it's 12 years since we've had NHL players here. The stakes are huge.
Starting point is 00:13:34 The storylines are huge. I think they're going to find a way to pull it off, but it's going to be a little shoestring in places. You're right. I mean, Chad, there's always challenges with venues or logistics or infrastructure with the Olympics. These are huge undertakings. And, you know, you're going to places where they haven't held them in a long time,
Starting point is 00:13:55 at least up here in this part of Italy. But, you know, it's really not ideal. And I'll say this, there were some pretty key decision makers here this weekend, you know, from the IOC, from the local organizing committee. I mean, senior people did acknowledge in interviews on Sunday that this is not ideal. But they didn't, they didn't at least hide from the fact that this has been a challenge and nothing has come easy for them and that they started this arena too late. You know, where this started, honestly, is the shovels went in the ground too late just to begin. And then obviously they haven't been able to make up and get ahead of it or somehow speed up the process. So this has sort of been doomed for a couple of years.
Starting point is 00:14:37 And now we're down to the final scramble. And I do think they're going to pull it off. But, you know, it's going to be challenging. I mean, NHL players are used to a certain standard. I mean, this will not be what they're accustomed to. I mean, hopefully the ice gets there. And, you know, most people are going to experience this through their TV. So as long as the games themselves are great, you know, most of this talk will fade to the background once the tournament gets going.
Starting point is 00:15:03 All right. Well, one last thing before I let you go. And I agree with you. I think there's almost no way this doesn't happen. These players will play at a mall somewhere if they have to just to get this tournament. And ultimately, the decision does fall on the players. That's been made clear. The only way this doesn't happen is if the players say we won't play.
Starting point is 00:15:18 What has to happen for that to happen? Like, how bad would things have to be? Give me an example of what would have to happen. for the players to say, you know what, even we won't play on this. I think it's all the ice at this stage, you know. I think that they can navigate their way around not having, they're not going to have their normal creature comforts. Like I toured through the backdressing rooms.
Starting point is 00:15:38 The showers have like for like, it's just, it's nothing close to what NHL facilities look like. And I think, I think players knew that a long time ago, that this is, you know, they're not building an NHL style buildings here. There's no, there's no need in this part of Italy to have, like a nice, fancy facility like the one you have in Chicago or Toronto or Edmonton or anywhere else that we play NHL games. So I think the only thing that could really derail this is if the ice was not safe enough.
Starting point is 00:16:07 And, you know, the fact that they played professional games here over the weekend, like the games were fine. There's maybe a little bit too much snow at parts. And, you know, they think that that's a temperature issue that they can adjust. Basically, they learn that in effect by having these games, that the ice has settled down. that they've been able to, you know, put more layers on it between games. You know, I just feel like, you know, Don Moffat, he works for the Colorado Abilance. So he's made NHL ice previously in his life.
Starting point is 00:16:36 This is his fifth Olympics where he's been part of the ice crew. In this case, he's leading it, was hired by the organizing committee. They also have an HL staff that have been observing. You know, I just, I think they're going to be able to get it to a point where the ice is okay. And so to me, that's the only thing that could doom this entirely. but, I mean, hopefully they're not jinxing anything because obviously I, I as much as anyone want to see this tournament. I've been banging my head against the wall, trying to get the NHLers back to the Olympics,
Starting point is 00:17:04 basically since it was decided they weren't going in 2018. And, you know, we're entering a period where this could be pretty cool because, you know, the World Cups, you know, we all saw four nations. Then you have the Olympics here. The World Cup is going to happen in 2028. I would expect the NHLIs are back in the Olympics in 2030 and the French helps. And then Salt Lake City, Utah has it in 2034. there's rumors Switzerland's going to get the Olympics in 2038, which is a pretty good hockey country.
Starting point is 00:17:28 I mean, I think you can, this could be the start of an era of 12 to 20 years, maybe where international hockey even goes to a level it's never been at before. So, you know, I think it's critical that they play the games and I think they're going to find a way. Agreed. All right, CJ, thanks for all the firsthand information. Everybody should go read all of CJ's stories at the athletic, safe travels, and I hope you get one last big pasta meal before you come home. That is the one guarantee I'll make is that I'm going to eat to eat well tonight before flying home tomorrow. All right.
Starting point is 00:17:57 So from that, my takeaway is pretty much the talk about the ICE is all in service of preparing us, the viewer for the fact that this might not be what we're used to seeing. It doesn't sound like it's scaring off any players, Las. No, if anything, it's going to scare off fans and journalists. We're going to be there. I'm heading over there, and I'm very curious to see what my accommodations will be. Not that anybody cares about what the Press Tribune looks like. But it's, this is the Olympics, man. More often than not, this is how, unless it's in like an established city with like,
Starting point is 00:18:26 like Vancouver had a hockey rink already, right? Unless it's like that, it tends to be kind of flying by the seat of their pants. A lot of things are done at the very last minute. In Sochi, it was the hotels for almost everybody, including the players. In Milan, it's going to be the hockey rink. It's just not going to be done. There's no way it's going to be completed. I just hope that all the, you know, CJ told me before the show to dress, to pack extra warm
Starting point is 00:18:48 because it's the coldest rink he's ever been to. And I think that's probably because there's a giant hole in this side of the building, right? Like I hope they at least patch up that hole and they have a fully functioning, you know, room temperature building for fans to enjoy these games. It's going to be 11,000 people instead of 14,000 people. There's going to be food trucks outside instead of concession stands. It's going to be a mess. And we all have to go into there knowing it's going to be a mess and that hopefully the hockey is so good than not a vessel mind. Well, that's the key.
Starting point is 00:19:16 I don't think anyone needs SoFi Stadium, right? or the palaces in Seattle and Vegas and Detroit right now. I don't think anyone needs it to be that. But the hockey then has to really deliver. You can't have a second rate building and venue and also not have the best on best hockey live up to best on best hockey. I think it'll actually be kind of endearing in some ways. Like the players are going to be walking from trailers under like across the street
Starting point is 00:19:41 under like a tent canopy to get from their quote unquote locker rooms, which are basically holes in the wall to the rink. There's going to be something kind of. endearing about that to fans watching from home that they've like the players were totally cool with this because like they weren't really all that cool within a mullet arena to playing the coyotes is one thing playing the olympics is quite another and i think it's going to actually have almost like a weird quirky charm to it after a while kind of like the winner the original winter classics where it's like oh look at this there's this pomp and circumstance yeah uh winter
Starting point is 00:20:11 classic probably would have a quite quite a bit better accommodations from the track record you know winter a classic, they do the ice with only a couple of weeks notice also, the differences they're not playing three games a day on it for three straight weeks. That's going to be the real test here. Yeah, no doubt. All right. Let's say a quick break right there. I'll be right back with Arpin Basu. All right, we're back and we are joined now by Arpin Basu in Montreal. It covers the Canadians for us in Arpin. Today we're going to spend some time on the Atlantic because I think it's the most interesting division in hockey. The Central is obviously loaded. Three powerhouse teams, three at least of the five best teams in the NHL, I think, are in the Central. But the intrigue is
Starting point is 00:20:47 the Atlantic. I mean, it's not just how tight everything is there. It's how they're playing right now. The Red Wings are atop that division after a win in Montreal the other night. They're seven, two, and one. In the Atlantic division, that's just kind of par. Tampa's not won nine of their last 10. So as Buffalo, the Leafs have won seven of their last 10 and took two more to overtime, watching this division right now. I think we just kind of wanted to have you on to dive into what this race is like. Well, yeah, it's funny talking to the players, especially heading into that game Saturday night against Detroit, the Canadians players,
Starting point is 00:21:20 I should say. You know, it's like, it's, you know, no one's gaining ground. Like Buffalo goes on a 10-game win streak and still weren't in a playoff spot at that point.
Starting point is 00:21:29 You know, they eventually got into one. But it just shows, you know, everyone talks about the parody and, and how close everything is. But the fact that everything's so close means there's a lot of teams. There's a lot of teams in that bunch. And to leapfrog teams is really difficult.
Starting point is 00:21:46 not only with how much teams are winning in the Atlantic, but just generally speaking, how many games are going to overtime this season, it's really, really hard to make ground. So, I mean, you look at Ottawa at the bottom of the division,
Starting point is 00:21:58 like, I don't think they're done. You know, like, I mean, they're, like this top to bottom is just, there's going to be some really good teams
Starting point is 00:22:06 that don't make the playoffs to have the Atlantic division. Well, really good might be a stretch, but good, good teams, legitimate playoff teams that aren't going to make the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:22:15 And it's, It's, you know, Ottawa is a great example. You go into one bad stretch. And next thing you know, you're last in the division and like four points out of second to last, which is Florida, the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion. So, yeah, it's, I agree with you. It is the most interesting division. It's not the best division, although I don't think Tampa gets enough love for their
Starting point is 00:22:34 contender status this year. But it's definitely the most competitive and the most interesting for sure. At this point of the season, you've got, you know, we're more than halfway through the season. and seven out of these eight teams either entered the season with legitimate playoff hopes or have established that they now have playoff hopes. And, you know, depending on how much you believe in like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, two, three, maybe even four of these teams are going to be left out. I mean, it's going to be a fascinating race.
Starting point is 00:23:01 And like you said, it is so hard to make up ground that every game, every game that you can win a regulation in particular feels massive right now, which isn't something we're used to saying in January. No, and I think it just adds a level of, uh, It adds a level of stress. Like, yes, it's entertaining for the fans, but it's, it's not normal for these players to be walking into a game in mid-January. I would even say early January and be like, wow, this is a huge game. You know, like, we really got to, like, it's just not.
Starting point is 00:23:30 And so that, having that level of, you know, teams try to manufacture that at this time of the year. You know, you're trying to like manufacture urgency is really the term that coaches love to use because it's just you're kind of in the doldrums of the season and you're sort of in the midpoint. the trade deadline is still kind of far away, although it's not that far away in terms of how many games teams have left until the trade deadline. But this urgency doesn't have to be manufactured anymore just because of this parody.
Starting point is 00:23:59 These are legitimately, and we know that at the end of the season, like a point lost in a shootout here or failing to reach overtime in a game that you led in the last minute there, like these little moments, I think players and coaches are acutely aware that these single points or two points that you kind of throw away in what used to be a nothing game in the middle of January could come back to bite you. And I think that really kind of paints everything these teams are doing right now because you don't want to have that regret of like, oh man, remember when we blew that two goal lead in the third period on January 16th against Boston and now they're one point in and we're out.
Starting point is 00:24:42 and we shouldn't have done that kind of thing. So the urgency is there very early, which makes for pretty compelling hockey because you don't see teams just coasting through these games right now. Now, you guys are both in this, you're both in the Atlantic Division regularly. I'm in the Central.
Starting point is 00:24:56 I don't see it as much, so I'm looking at it from afar. When we talk about the parody, I'm seeing a lot of mediocrity. You can go through every one of these teams except for Tampa Bay, and I could find a major flaw with them right now. I was doing it in the hour before we were coming on to record.
Starting point is 00:25:09 And I was like, wow, I don't believe in any of these teams, really, except for Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is on another level. They are, you know, they feel the most sustainable. You mean? Just to be able to sustain, staying in this. Like not to have like a six-game losing streak that's going to knock them out of a race this close. Because they feel the most sustainable. They give up the fewest scoring chances per 60.
Starting point is 00:25:26 They're top 10 in creating scoring chances. You've got the goal. And we don't ever talk about Nikita Kutraal because we're talking about McKinnon and McDavid and Bedard and Celebrini and all these guys. Kutrov is unbelievable, especially lately. He's got what? In seven games since Christmas, he's got nine goals and 11 assists. Who does that?
Starting point is 00:25:41 He's got 23 multi-point games. A third of his last 21 games have been three points or more. So this feels like that's a team. That's a Stanley Cup contender team. Detroit right now, I don't see a Stanley Cup contender. Montreal, I don't see a Stanley Cup contender. Florida right now, I barely see as a Stanley Cup contender. And that's based on history.
Starting point is 00:26:00 It seems like it's Tampa Bay and a bunch of mediocre teams in my way off. Isn't that the league, though, right now? I mean, I would argue that there's maybe four teams that's scary across the whole league. and it's Colorado is one of them. Maybe Minnesota's elevated into one of them. I actually haven't been that impressed by Dallas this year, but they are kind of always there and their roster is there. Maybe Washington's there.
Starting point is 00:26:21 But I think what explains it in the Atlantic is for a long time, this was the most stratified division in hockey. You had bona fide contenders, Tampa, Florida, Toronto, Boston, and you had like true dedicated rebuilders that like, sure, they'd like to win, but it was not the priority issue. What you have right now is you have all of those teams, all of those rebuilders trying to come out of it. Two of them, Montreal and Ottawa made the playoffs last year.
Starting point is 00:26:43 Two more of them, Detroit and Buffalo have the longest playoff droughts in, like, NHL history. And then the others are, like, kind of at a pivot point. And Toronto loses Mitch Marner, and they're trying to see what they are at this point. Boston lost everyone and is trying to figure out what they are at this point. I say everyone. They lost Marchand, they lost Berger on. That felt like everyone. You know, Florida is so banged up.
Starting point is 00:27:03 And then there's Tampa, who I think is still, we know what they are. But it's just kind of, I guess that's part of the curiosity from, me is like, is this the middle ground and it's the transition and we're going to see the Detroit's, the Montreals, the Buffaloes, the Ottawa's flip it? Or I don't see a reason Tampa can't hang on to this. I don't see a reason once Florida's healthy that they're going to completely vanish here. And I think that's what makes it compelling. Well, I think, you know, you look at the central and the way I would define the Atlantic is you have like half the division has a window that's closing and half the division has a window that's opening. And it's basically the teams that
Starting point is 00:27:37 have their windows opening, you know, last, like your assessment's not wrong, but it has to be taken in the context of where they're coming from, you know, like, I mean, yes, is Montreal a mediocre team? Probably is Detroit? Yes. Buffalo, yes. But compared to what they've been and the trajectory that they're on, they all seem to be hitting a window at the same time. And I don't even knock Ottawa out of that, but they're in that category. They're having a tough time right now. But these four teams group together, you know, I think there is going to be a flip. Like Tampa, yes, they're a wagon right now and they're an excellent team, but they can only continue doing this for so long.
Starting point is 00:28:16 Like they're aging out. Kuturov is phenomenal still and still probably has two, three, maybe even four elite years ahead of them. But there's a limit to that. Vasselowski is getting older. Like, I mean, they have. Headman. I mean, yeah, they're the whole team.
Starting point is 00:28:31 And Julianne Breisbisbaud does a masterful job and really has done probably the best job of, you know, a cap-trap team keeping a window open. Like, he's done it with, like, with glue and scotch tape. And I don't know how he's done it, but he does it every year. He manages to fill out a roster that's cap-compliant and keeps that team competitive. But it's got a limit to it. And, you know, Toronto, we're starting to get, you know, even though they've been really, really good of late. Big picture-wise, if they don't win soon, they're just not going to win and they're going to have to start over.
Starting point is 00:29:03 Florida is kind of the same thing, although, you know, they've already won two. So if that happens to them, who cares? But they probably have another one run or two in them. But this division is in the process of flipping. And that's what, you know, what the Atlantic was is kind of what the Central is now, right? Like it's, you know, these top teams and then the rest of the teams kind of chasing them. And but what's interesting about the Atlantic at least is that, you know, those teams, Montreal, Detroit, Ottawa, and it should have been Buffalo,
Starting point is 00:29:35 but because it's been so inept there for so long, they were grouped in with them, but they were all in various stages of a rebuild. And the big question was, who's going to get out of it first and who's going to be able to challenge the top dogs? And I think that's what we're seeing right now, is that that process is coming.
Starting point is 00:29:50 And by next season, that could be flipped. You know, like, I mean, you look at Detroit, Montreal, Buffalo in particular, but even Ottawa, because those teams are not only have young players on them, they have young players coming that could help this whole process along. So that's what I find so interesting is that for years we've been waiting to see when is, like cracking into the top three in division was a four-team race, you know, for forever.
Starting point is 00:30:17 And now it's, now it's not. Arbin, talk me into Montreal because, like, I look at Jakob Dobesh being 13, 5 and 3 with an 889 save percentage as kind of just summing this team up. Like, I don't really know how they're even in. they seem like they're, I don't know, they're less than the sum of their parts. I look, and they should be so dynamic. You got Nick Suzuki's two-way game. You got Caulfield and Demetov. You've got Slavkovsky.
Starting point is 00:30:40 Hudson and Dobson on the blue line. I feel like they should be more dynamic than they are. I feel they should be more competitive than they are. They give up a ton of chances. The P.K. is middling the bad. The power play is decent. But like, how are they even in this race right now when nothing seems to be going all that well? Well, they don't lose in regulation very often.
Starting point is 00:31:00 often for one. So that's, they have, they have sort of latched on to the theme of this season in general, but the fact that they get to overtime as often as they do, it's a big reason why they have as many points as they have because they don't win in regulation that often either. In fact, that no one, except for Ottawa has won in regulation less than the Canadians. But like, I used to harp on them for that because that's the first tiebreak to get into the playoffs. I'm starting to come around to the notion that you should probably start looking at regulation losses as being sort of a barometer for how it's, you're going to be a barometer for how a team is playing because as, as, you know, as deris of people can get of, you know,
Starting point is 00:31:36 the points you get for overtime losses or shootout losses, calling them loser points and in many ways they are. But that's how you keep track of score in the NHL. That's how you, that's how you do the standings. That's the Torterale method, right? It's just get enough loser points to get as the seventh seed in the playoffs. That's on Tororella built a career doing that. I have an issue with the loser point terminology too, because you were already getting a point. it just used to be a tie. Like the extra point, the cheap point is the one that goes to the winning team that couldn't do it in 60 minutes.
Starting point is 00:32:04 That's the one people should be ashamed of. Not the one for the tie that they were getting anyway. Yeah, but like the point is, is that because of the format, like the Canadians are actually quite good at overtime. You know, they're not very good at the shootout, but they're pretty good at overtime. And so they have like an impetus to get to overtime. Like they like their chances in overtime because of all the players you mentioned, Las.
Starting point is 00:32:25 And, you know, to say that. You look at them and they should be more competitive. I mean, they score a lot of goals, which... Yeah, they're eighth. Eighth goals per game. Yeah. That's it. But it's just that they give up a lot because they're young.
Starting point is 00:32:36 They're the youngest team in the league. And they have a lot of guys, you know, Damedov's in his first full season. He's just turned 20, like a month ago. Slavkowski's in his fourth season. He's 21. Like, he'll be 22 in April or May or something this spring. You know, the best is yet to come for these guys. So, like, all of this is kind of, well, Ken Hughes, actually flat out said it.
Starting point is 00:32:58 last week. I mean, he's, they're ahead of schedule. You know, they did not expect to be this competitive, this quick. So that's why everything they do has to be looked at through that lens. Like,
Starting point is 00:33:08 where would you reasonably expect a team that was so far in the bottom only, you know, three years ago, uh, or even two years ago and just scratched their way into the playoffs last year, which in and of its, that in and of itself was a bonus that wasn't expected. But they entered the,
Starting point is 00:33:25 they actually got younger over the off season. and they lost two of their key veteran pieces that helped them make the playoffs in Dvorak and Armia and replaced them with, and Savard actually, and replaced him with, well, Dobson, which is a huge upgrade,
Starting point is 00:33:37 obviously, but like Demidov came in, Capandon comes in, and he leads the league in goals by a rookie and has been really completes that line with Slavkoski and Demidov really well. But they're a young team. And you're not supposed to
Starting point is 00:33:50 be collecting points at a 622 clip when you're the youngest team in the league. It's just not how it usually works. So I think, a lot of what's happening with Montreal is a bit of a bonus, which is what makes them kind of unique in this sense, because you look at Detroit, Ottawa is kind of in a similar boat. Like, you know, they kind of have to make this group work, whereas I think Montreal's group is still sort of evolving a little bit and still has other pieces that are coming that could have a significant impact, including guys that are on their own team. I kind of look at 27, 28 as the start of Montreal's contention window. and at that point, DeMitov will be, he will turn 22 that December.
Starting point is 00:34:30 And it's like, you know, you're in pretty good shape. Like if all of your core is between the age of 22 and 28, and that's kind of what they have going on. Yeah, if these are vamp years for them, right? Like, this is years to learn lessons. It's a good spot to be. And it's why, I mean, we did a piece this weekend, Arpin, ahead of the game between the Red Wings and Canadians about kind of lessons of two rebuilds that took pretty different tracks. Like, not always by choice.
Starting point is 00:34:53 I'm sure the Red Wings would have preferred to get a first overall pick. I'm sure there's things that could have gone better for them. But I think Montreal moved really decisively into their rebuild and has had kind of the dream rebuild, like the one that other teams around the league. If you're, and granted, there's not really a lot of teams right now that are initiating rebuilds. Maybe there's a couple that are going to get forced into them. But if you can do it the way Montreal did it, and that's to steer into it, like don't kid yourself, don't delude yourself, go ahead on into it and make some moves early. And, you know, you're not going to hit on every trade. quite the way that Montreal has.
Starting point is 00:35:28 But they're kind of the model for any team that's going to start it. Yeah, a little bit. And I mean, the one thing that they missed is that they picked first overall in a year where you didn't have like a transformational superstar available in the draft. You know, like I love, Uriestov Koski is a very unique player. And I think he was a worthy number one pick, even though you can make an argument for Logan Cooley that year. You could even make an argument for Lane Hudson who went 60 seconds.
Starting point is 00:35:51 So, but, you know, that he's not Macklin Celebrity. he's not Connor Bedard. Like that's really the dream rebuild has that as a centerpiece. And so the Canadians didn't get that, but despite that, they did a lot of things that did move this thing along. They placed a priority on acquiring players that fit with their core age-wise. And so, like,
Starting point is 00:36:12 they identified their core as being sort of Suzuki Caulfield. That's basically it, actually, in terms of what they inherited. And they went out and got a Kirby doc, who's in that age bracket, It hasn't really panned out that well, but still, that was a principle. Alex Newhook is a good complimentary player as far as I'm concerned. It fits that age group.
Starting point is 00:36:33 And so they kept adding players and not simply going after draft picks and not simply looking to trade players who are not in the NHL yet. Like they had a real interest in adding NHL ready players or players who were already in the NHL who fit with the rest of the core pieces that they already had. And so I think that's where they differentiated themselves. a little bit because they were very aggressive in doing that. You know, like, you got to think, like, this administration's first draft, it's held in their home building.
Starting point is 00:37:02 The draft was electric. You know, the place was sold out. The Bell Center was full. And in that draft, they announced that they're trading away Alexander Romanov, who was an immensely popular player in Montreal for Kirby Doc. And it was a risk. I think a lot of people saw it for what it was, that it was worthwhile. But trading Romanov, you know, they could use a Romanov right now.
Starting point is 00:37:23 Now, like that would, that would really help their group right now. So it's, it's risks like that that I think a lot of rebuilding teams are kind of averse to that this team right from the start showed a willingness, not only willingness, but actually aggressively sought situations like that where they could take a big swing and hopefully hit on it. And it's telling that they didn't hit on that first one. You know, Kirby Doc has not panned out. He's been injury riddled his entire time in Montreal. But I think the actual, the sentiment behind that move is something that more rebuilding teams should probably embrace. it's such a copycat league, but I think this is where the copycatting stops. Like, you know, Florida goes out and builds a team really through trades, right?
Starting point is 00:38:02 Through trades in free agency. They had a couple. They had a decent base there with some draftics, but then they went out and they made big trades. Nobody else really does that. Well, yeah, no, they had an idea. You have to start with something, of course. But that's not a team that was built through the draft in any means. So, you know, what Montreal did is a lot harder than doing what Chicago is doing,
Starting point is 00:38:20 and doing what Detroit did. When you're a GM and you're building through the draft, you get years and years of job security because nobody expects anything from you. When you take the Montreal way, you are expediting the process and saying, we're going to get there quicker and you're putting a lot more pressure on yourself because you're making hockey trades that can be immediately assessed, not like trading Alice to Brinkett for a number seven pick that, you know,
Starting point is 00:38:42 years later still hasn't turned out because Kevin Korninski is still in the AHL. Like it's for a GM to take the Montreal method or the Florida method, He has to really put himself out there. And I don't think most GMs are really willing to do that. Well, most owners should be. You know, if you go into a rebuild, you think so, yeah. You have to pitch it to your owner, right? And your owner has to be willing to deal with anywhere between three and 10, well,
Starting point is 00:39:06 five to 10 years of bad hockey and having trouble selling tickets and filling your building. And that's a commitment on that owner's part and a willingness to maybe lose money for a few years and not definitely not get that playoff revenue. And so if I'm an owner, I'm just kind of like, hey, can we, can we speed this along in a responsible way? Like, I don't want you to take shortcuts and wind up doing, making like egregious errors that get you in a situation like Buffalo found itself in because they made some shortcut moves, you know, like signing a POSO and free agency.
Starting point is 00:39:39 And there's a whole bunch of stuff they did a long time ago that really derailed them. Or what's happened in Vancouver or whatever, like it's, you don't want that. But if I'm an owner, I'm looking at not only Montreal, but I mean, I think I think you look at any sort of progressive and aggressive GM and be like, you know, be more like that guy. Like I want, yes, I'm willing to rebuild. Yes, I'm willing to be patient. But we have to sell something to our fan base. And what Montreal did a very good job with is selling hope, you know. But the hope, you didn't have to look four or five years down the road to get it.
Starting point is 00:40:12 It was on the roster. And you could see it. And it was happening. And even when they were losing, they were still. competitive, like you could see them becoming more and more competitive. They were exciting. There was a lot of talent and the more talent that showed up, the more appealing they were as a product. You know, I mean, the Canadians are never going to not sell out. Yeah, but it's, you need to, you need to give something. You need to give something that puts on a show in
Starting point is 00:40:35 your building every night. Steve Eisenman and Kyle Davidson didn't. They had the best job security in the league. Well, the difference between Montreal, too, and like a Vancouver, for example, that you talked about, like they, they were aggressive. They, they were just also tanking while they were doing it or bottoming out or whatever you want to put it. Like they didn't try to skip the phase where you're a bottom five team in the league for three or four years. They were just also working on top of that. It wasn't patience for the sake of patience.
Starting point is 00:40:58 We got to see what these prospects are before we can make any moves around them. It was, yeah, give us the first run pick. We're going to take Sean Monaghan. We're going to flip him for a first round pick. We're going to bring in Mike Matheson. He was a present day player. Like there's no, there was no like long view view that like, oh, yeah, he's not there yet, but he's going to help him right then.
Starting point is 00:41:15 It's just also now he's going to help them into the future. And so they didn't pick one or the other. They did both. They did a retool and a rebuild, and they're, they're being rewarded for it. Well, I think, I think one thing that, that they did is that they created sort of multiple layers, like you just mentioned. But like, you know, like Suzuki, Kowfield, Cain Gouley, if you want to throw Doc in there, you could throw Doc in there. You could throw a new hook in there. But they represent like a pocket of, of an age group in their roster.
Starting point is 00:41:42 Dobson would be in there too. Dobson would be added to that after, yeah, this summer. and the other one is, you know, anchored by Hudson, Slavkowski, Demydov. Perhaps Michael Hage will join that group or he might actually represent a separate development window. But like those younger guys, like my line is that the Canadians will be in contention when Demidov, Hudson, Slavkowski are in their prime. But they're in their prime at the same time as Suzuki, Kofield, Gouli, Dobson, are still in their prime. They're towards the middle, if not the late phase of their prime.
Starting point is 00:42:19 If you can marry primes, like groups of players that are there in their, are various stages of their prime and marry them together for a window of two to three years, I think you're really in business in terms of how you rebuild a team. That's been Dallas. Yes, that's been Dallas. But Dallas, you have to draft like so phenomenally well to be Dallas. Like it's not reasonable. That's what Chicago and Twitter are trying to do, right?
Starting point is 00:42:44 You have your Bedard, Nazar, Kaiser, Vlasic. These guys are going to be like 27, 28, when Frondell and Kansarov and all these next generation all start coming in, wherever they pick this year. That's the dream, right? It's just that Detroit and Chicago took six, seven years to do that. Ideally, Montreal condensed that into just a few years. I think that aggressive style, if you pull it off, fantastic, and I wish more teams would try. Yeah, I don't know if they pulled it off yet, though.
Starting point is 00:43:12 That remains to be seen. to do. We're to do all around. I'm going to read you the Atlantic Division odds from our friends at BedMGM, the lightning runaway favorites here at minus 300. They got the three games in hand. They're the best team. They're one point back. I don't think we're getting any disagreement here. But I think it's interesting what the rest of them reveal. Canadians are next at plus 1,000. Red Wings plus 1100. Sabres are tied with the Florida Panthers plus 1,500. I did not think I'd be saying that sentence this year. And then it's a huge gap to the Maple Leafs plus 3,500, senators plus 8,000. and they do not believe in the Bruins. One iota, they don't care about 10 to 2 over the Rangers, and then a 1-0 shut out the next day, Bruins plus 15,000, almost twice as long shot as the senators. Is that to win the division in the regular season?
Starting point is 00:43:58 Yes, that is to win the division, yep. I want to jump in on Buffalo here because I don't, Buffalo either the Buffalo Sabres are nonsense or all advanced stats are nonsense because they were a better team when they were in dead last than during their 13-1 stretch here, like significantly so. by almost every measurable metric.
Starting point is 00:44:16 What about goal tend to be just, it can't, well, that's just, it can't all just be PDO, right? I mean, like, it's, like, what do you believe? Do you believe the Sabres are the terrible team they were? Or are they the great team they are? They're probably somewhere in the middle, but there's no way you can like reasonably come to that conclusion based on any measurable aspect of their team.
Starting point is 00:44:34 Well, the one thing I would say to that, Las, is that the Canadians, like, for the better part of a more than a calendar year now, have been severely outplaying what the underlying numbers would suggest they should do. And so for the longest time, I'm like, this is, this is phony. Like, this is bogus. Like, this is going to, this is going to shatter. This is not going to last. Like, this doesn't work.
Starting point is 00:44:56 You don't, you're not, you're not controlling 45 to 48% of the expected goals over months at a time and coming out of that as a winning team. And the Canadians have consistently done that for a long time. And I think one thing that's happening is that, you know, public expected goals. models are getting a little messed up by the puck tracking data that's starting to get introduced, and they're not as reflective as they used to be. That's one thing. But another thing is that just the way teams attack, like, I don't think it's the end of the world if you lose, you know, if you lose the quote unquote possession game and you're getting out shot regularly, like,
Starting point is 00:45:31 I think the way teams attack makes it very difficult to use, it makes more difficult to use those numbers as a gauge than it used. used to be. And, and I'm learning that the hard way just because, like, the team I cover has basically flown in the face of those numbers for more than 90 games now. I find myself defaulting to scoring chances and high, high danger scoring chances more than anything. I know, but the way they track those, the way they track those, it's not reliable. Right, exactly. It varies team to team, uh, the proprietary team information versus the publicly available data. Like, we don't know, you know, you just, if you're just scraping the play by play,
Starting point is 00:46:09 there's no way of knowing if that's a high danger chance. It doesn't include the pass that leads up to the shot. It doesn't include the motion of the play. It doesn't include, like there's so many things at the public data we have now just doesn't show you that it's getting, you're right. It's getting harder and harder to believe the numbers. I just think the gap is widening. Regressing to the eye test almost.
Starting point is 00:46:26 Yeah, the gap is widening between the public data and the proprietary stuff that the teams use. I don't think it's, it's not a wide chasm or anything. Like it's generally, they give you a general idea, but I think it's not as close as it used to be. Yeah. And just for context, people have heard us talk about the puck tracking. I don't know if you guys have noticed watching on Jumbotrons during the season.
Starting point is 00:46:49 Like shots on goals are fluctuating like crazy during a period. Oh, Jesse Granger did a great story on that if people haven't read it. But they'll take a shot on goal away two days later. Yeah. And the scrutiny on shots on goals, yeah. You can't have any expected goals if it's not a shot on goal. So it could have been a great shot. that the goalie gloved.
Starting point is 00:47:09 And if puck tracking, 36 hours later, determined that it was going to go wide by a centimeter, that 0.4 XG chance vanishes into thin air. So it's a funny time as we all try to sort through all this. And it's funny, like I'll tweet like the shots at the end of a period. And I'll look up at the start of the next period and it's three lower than what it was when I tweeted it 20 minutes earlier. So the next day, like you filed your story and you filed this story like,
Starting point is 00:47:33 oh, he had a 26 save shutout. That's it. And it's not. It's a 24 safe shutout and you look like an idiot. You know, like it's, there's nothing you can do about it. But I mean, you know, accuracy is better. Like more accuracy is good, I guess. But, but the reality is like this whole world is changing.
Starting point is 00:47:51 So like, so to your point, yes, is Buffalo what those numbers say they are? Probably not. And I think there's a lot of, I think there's some catching up to do in terms of how we track the performance of these teams and what they're actually doing. Like it's, there's a lot of, there's a lot of shot quality stuff going on. Like, I mean, I think a lot of teams, you know, other than Carolina and a handful of others, like there's not that many teams that just fire pucks at the net indiscriminately from all over the ice. And so, you know, the days of gaming coursey and all that stuff, I think, are over. Like, I mean, the quality of the shot is more important.
Starting point is 00:48:25 And that's, you know, when you have a team like Montreal who does have a lot of dynamic talent, Like they are often egregiously guilty of overpassing because they're trying to create. And goal tend. But they've also got more finishers. So like you said, they're going to outperform their metrics sometimes. That's it. And, you know, an expected goal to like Anaheim or, you know, pick a Columbus is probably not the same as an expected goal to a team like Montreal or even, you know, Connor Bedard. If Conraddard shoots the puck or someone else shoots the puck.
Starting point is 00:49:01 The chance of going in is vastly different. Yeah, we saw that with Patrick Kane for years. He always, for 15 years, outperformed his metrics. Like, you had to, like, there was like a curve you had to apply to him because he was just, he could just score from places other people couldn't. Yeah, Col Coffield shoots the puck parallel to the goal line, a foot off the goal line down there on the left side. And it's going in the net.
Starting point is 00:49:20 And it's probably a 0.01xG shot, but not for Cole Cofield. It's not. Right. And the fact that goaltenders have to, goaltenders know that and have to account for that open so much up for his linemates because like a goalie cannot go to sleep because Cole Codfield has the puck on the goal line like you actually have to be extra alert and then all of a sudden. And that's impossible to reflect in the numbers also that little life.
Starting point is 00:49:41 Exactly. So it's always been, you know, all the people who are anti-advanced stats have always said, oh, it's just part of the story and you're just like, yeah, okay, we all know that, right, but it's an important part of the story and you have to like, you have to, you have to take that part of the, you can't, you don't read a book and leave out an entire chapter, right? You have to take it in. But I honestly think like those people are starting to be more and more right just because the numbers that we have access to are getting less and less reflective of what's actually happening on the ice. And I'm trying to like retrain my own brain
Starting point is 00:50:14 and how I view these things because it's been honestly like a 90 game sample with this team that I cover where everything that I've known or learned on how to evaluate how well a hockey team playing doesn't necessarily apply to this group. And so that got me wondering, like, do they apply to other groups as well? And so maybe they do. I don't know. But it's, so yeah, a long answer to the question. But it's, you know, like Buffalo, like when I look at Buffalo, it's, it's, it's,
Starting point is 00:50:42 Buffalo's finally behaving the way they look on paper. Like, they've looked on paper like a team that should be doing this for a long time. And for a variety of reasons, cultural and otherwise and just poor management decisions and lots of things. They haven't been able to do that. But you look at the players they have, you know, like to me the best example is like Owen Power. Like Owen Power is a hell of a defenseman. He's been ripped to shreds in Buffalo because of how long it's taken him to get to get to this point because he's a number one pick.
Starting point is 00:51:12 He's under a lot of scrutiny. He's a big guy who's not overly physical. So this attracts criticism normally. But like you look at Owen Power is like a big reason why Buffalo has figured things out because you need that depth. Like you can't just have Rosamist Dahlene be the. the only guy on your blue line who's running the show and who's dominating every night. Like, you know, Bowen Byron has been great for them
Starting point is 00:51:32 especially after all the drama of him wanting a trade and all this stuff. Like it's, you know, a lot of the peripheral drama has been pushed to the side and it just coincidentally happened when Kevin Adams got fired, but I don't think it's actually a causal relationship. Like, I just think this is kind of the natural maturity of this team
Starting point is 00:51:50 to some extent. But yeah, I would, I would I would avoid or I would try to take the numbers behind the buffalo sabers with a bit of a grain of salt because I think there's just a lot of intangible things happening there that can't be accounted for on a spreadsheet, even though just saying that just made me want to wretch because I hate that. I hate that. I hate that term. But it's true. So it wasn't a causal relationship with Kevin Adams. Was it a causal relationship with Marks of Art in Toronto? because how else to explain why all of a sudden they're really good again. They're starting to look like the Maple Leafs that we know. Other than Dennis Hildeby turning into, you know, Jacques Plont here,
Starting point is 00:52:34 what are we seeing in Toronto that's working so well? Well, I mean, the power play is the one thing that, that they fired Mark Savard and their power play got as good as it should be, right? It shouldn't happen that fast, though, right? It shouldn't happen that fast. Well, no, but that's, it's, it really makes me wonder what the hell Mark Savard was doing over there because it's like, but I mean, no, I like, it's honestly like the simple answer in Toronto is like Austin Matthews looks like Austin Matthews again.
Starting point is 00:52:59 Like it's really not that complicated. It's not more complicated than that. Like that's how big of a difference that guy makes. And so there's still like a lot of in my eyes just team building issues in Toronto. Their defense is not built for the modern game. They're a big slow kind of lumbering group on defense. It's not ideal. It might help them in the playoffs, which is what they were what they were trying to do. They're sort of overcompensating for years of playoff failure. But that's not an ideal group on the blue line, but Austin Matthews is still Austin Matthews, and he wasn't for the first half of the season or much of it. And now he is. And I think you're seeing that. And so that's why when you listed those odds, like the odds I'm looking
Starting point is 00:53:39 at are Toronto's. Toronto has a good number there, value-wise. Like, I'm not a sports better at all. But if you're looking for, you know, if you're looking for rate of return, like the odds on Toronto to win the division, they probably won't win the division. They're too far back. But still, I would take a flyer on that. with it. They've got a brutal schedule between now and the Olympic break. I feel like we're going to know what they are. They have a brutal schedule the rest of the season. That's the worst part of their start was that it was home heavy. It was a lot of opponents that were beatable, like, you know, non-playoff teams. Like they had one of the easiest schedules in the league through like mid-November, I want to say. But like for a good chunk of the start of the year, not only were they losing, but they were wasting the most favorable part of their schedule. So yeah, now to climb up, they're going to have to like go through the toughest part of their schedule. We'll know what they are by the time we all. go out to Milan. We'll have a better sense of what the leads are, I think. Yeah. Yeah. All right. A lot more intrigue to come in the Atlantic, certainly through the rest of the way. Arpin,
Starting point is 00:54:33 thanks so much for coming on and to joining us, man. All right. Thanks, guys. We'll take a quick break. Be right back. All right. We're back. And, last, first of all, that was a fun conversation with Arpin, but as we were going, I looked up because we were talking about the loser point and how we should judge teams in that way. And was it you or was it him that said the regulation loss thing, what we should really be judging. I think it was Arpin said that. It was Arpin. Yeah. It So initially, I went and looked. And man, the team whose profile gets the biggest lift from that lens is Vegas. Vegas only has 11 regulation losses this year.
Starting point is 00:55:08 It's the same as the wild. It's one less than Dallas. And whole boy are the narratives different around Vegas versus Minnesota and Dallas so far. Well, that's why so many of us want to see like a three point system, right, where you get three points for a regulation win and only two points for an overtime win, right? Like that changes things a little bit. It creates just enough separation, just enough motivation. and just enough motivation to go and win in the third period because you're not talking tiebreakers,
Starting point is 00:55:30 you're talking real standings. Points. Like Montreal, which is like, like Arpin said, really good at overtime, is playing for overtime a lot. And that's the smart thing to do.
Starting point is 00:55:38 But it sucks from a fan standpoint, from a viewer standpoint. I want teams going forward in regulation and giving that third point where regulation win would change a lot of things in the NHL. Montreal is one of the few teams that I would buy is actually like good at overtime because of just their makeup. They're so fast.
Starting point is 00:55:54 They're so young. They're so like quick. I can buy that they would be a really scary team to play against in three on three. But I largely view three on three and the shootout as close to a coin flip. And so that's where like when I see Vegas has five overtime wins this year, five overtime more shootout wins this year and 12 losses. Like that just feels completely. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:56:15 Unlikely for it. I mean, three on three is not hockey. Like we always talk about the shootouts not hockey. Well, neither is three on three. That's not the way the sport is played. So it is, there's an element of randomness. it. It's more hockey than the shootout, I suppose, but it's still not hockey. So deciding anything in that kind of a system, it's for an entertainment standpoint. It doesn't really show anything
Starting point is 00:56:36 about competitive balance in the league. Yeah. I mean, Colorado, Montreal, I'm trying to think of the teams that I would buy as like that team would be terrifying in three on three. It's the teams that have the fast, highly skilled players. You put Kuturov and Braden Point out there and you're going to be okay. Yeah, that's right. Yeah. San Jose. And Will Smith can take you quite a ways and with that much ice to work with. I'm going to chew on that. That's going to probably factor into how I'm judging teams a little bit more, because I like that sentiment that the regulation loss maybe should weigh more into my thought process.
Starting point is 00:57:06 I did want to talk about one more Atlantic team that we didn't spend a whole lot of time. Edmonton, yeah, that's our producer, Chris, says I missed a big one. That is the scariest team. And I don't know if you watched that L.A. and Edmonton game late Saturday night. That was a doozy of a finish. I was past my bedtime. It was really good. I mean, that's one to almost go back and watch the last five minutes of regulation.
Starting point is 00:57:26 It was Bears World in Chicago on Saturday night. Oh, no kidding. One more Atlantic team that we didn't spend a whole lot of time on on that segment, but is certainly in the news right now is Ottawa. And, you know, it's a tough one because it's, you know, Linus Allmark's absence for personal reasons basically has led to a lot of speculation that went to way too far. And in Ottawa ended up having to issue a statement, you know,
Starting point is 00:57:49 putting it to rest and calling them fabricated false stories, spreading around social media about the club. And anytime it gets to the point that the club is putting out a statement, like, that tells you that it's become, kind of taken on a life of its own. And, you know, you've covered a situation. I don't remember if Chicago put out a statement to dispel it when it was, when it was Corey Perry a couple years ago. But I was just curious, like from your experience, what is that like to cover and to
Starting point is 00:58:13 be around the players in a locker room as a story kind of completely jumps the shark in that way? I've seen this twice in my time covering the Hawks, but the last year's one, one with Corey Perry was interesting because, like, as that rumor spread online, I was very quickly able to confirm that it was obviously untrue, right? It was such an absurd thing that clearly didn't happen. And I had discussions with my editor. I had discussions with the Blackhawks, you and me and the Blackhawks aren't exactly best friends over the years. But I said, like, they wanted me to write a story dispelling this rumor because I was confirming with them, like, everything that I already knew that it was clearly not true. But we at the Athletic decided
Starting point is 00:58:48 not to run that because all that was going to do was draw more attention. to a salacious rumor that had no basis in reality. I did not hear this rumor until the Ottawa senators put out that statement. And then all of a sudden I'm like, well, crap, now I got to go. I'm on Twitter searching, you know, Olmark and seeing them. And then you very quickly find out. Like, I'm sure hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people found out about it because of the statement the senators put out.
Starting point is 00:59:12 So it's not always an easy thing to do. Obviously what happened last year weighed on one particular player with the Blackhawks more than others, but it was so ridiculous it didn't really last. back in 2015 though in I think it was like February or March like as they were about to make their cup run the a rumor started going around about players and players wives and it was it was really salacious it was untrue it was actually I know way more about this than I wanted to know at the time
Starting point is 00:59:36 it was like four different things that happened that were like conflated into one oh my god rumor it was like four little things and it got conflated into this one big thing and like local sports radio in Chicago was talking about it openly as if it was fact they were called calling players drunks. They were saying this guy's doing this to this guy. And just talking about it like it was real.
Starting point is 00:59:57 And it really, like, Patrick Sharp had to make like a teary-eyed statement in the locker room after a practice. He had to address it like flat out. Rumors about him. It was really, it was tough on that room for several weeks there. It affected them. It affected their play there. They bottomed out in that march.
Starting point is 01:00:14 They had like a four game stretch where they played like their four worst games they've ever played. And it was because all this was going on in their heads. And obviously they came out of it. They went on to win the cup that year. But these kinds of things can, they don't tear a room apart. Like, that's not what's going to happen.
Starting point is 01:00:27 But they weigh on a player. When your family gets dragged into this stuff, it weighs on you as a player. When the insular safe, protected bubble of the locker room gets infiltrated like that and your family gets dragged in, these guys are only human. And it's hard to focus on your job when all that's going on. Yeah, it gets to a place where, you know,
Starting point is 01:00:44 I'm, I'm sympathetic to fans wanting to know an answer. when a player has been gone for a certain amount of time. Like I think fans are generally willing to accept something for a game, two games a week. And I'm sympathetic that once it gets beyond a week, you're like, what's going on here? But the solution is not to just make up a reason or buy the first reason that is put in front of you.
Starting point is 01:01:06 And that's where this stuff really breaks contain. It got to me a couple hours before the senator's statement. So I did end up seeing it kind of organically just through, you know, people sending me tweets, oh, did you see this? And I'm like, you know, but that's how to that's the problem. When it comes from like a Twitter account with like 300 followers, like, why are, I don't understand why people are so credulous, but it kind of explains where we are, where we are right now in the world at large. I think if I remember back in that 2015 one, it was like a New York Giants offensive linemen tweeted something about it. A guy with like 50,000 followers.
Starting point is 01:01:37 And he had like a friend of a friend of a friend of a friend who knew these guys. And that kind of seemed to give it credence to some people that don't, that have very, very low- Because they'd heard of the guy before. Yeah. So like they could just, they could pin it on him. And, you know, these, and again, talk radio has a much lower bar, journalistically speaking, than a newspaper does, and the athletic does.
Starting point is 01:01:56 You know, this is before the athletics time. But like the New York Times, our owners, we have incredibly strict uses of sourcing and anonymous sourcing. And you've got to really be 100% sure of something before you put it out there. Local radio station doesn't have to do that. They just put it whatever they want out there, right? So that's, then it starts building steam. He goes, well, he talked about it on the radio.
Starting point is 01:02:15 And this giant's offensive lineman talked about it. It must be true, right? And of course it wasn't, but then as a reporter, you can't exactly refute it because it's things you know that are off the record that refute it, right? You start running into this brick walls where you just have to let it kind of run its course because you're never going to convince these people anyway. And you just sound, oh, you're just holding carrying water for the team. Like, there's no way to win. When these rumors take root in the fan base and in the hockey world at large, there's absolutely no way to stem the tide and it's just going to go on. Well, we wouldn't be talking about it right now, if not for the fact that the senators put out a statement about it.
Starting point is 01:02:47 So that's to your point. Like it puts it into. And I don't know if that was right or not. Like maybe it was right. I mean, it was so, it was, it was emphatic. Like it was a good statement from that respect. But it also, you know, again, I don't pay that much attention on the daily basis to the Ottawa senators.
Starting point is 01:03:01 I don't think most hockey fans do. And this called, this was like putting a, like a glowing red arrow pointing at Ottawa, look something up about Ottawa, look something up about Ottawa. It greatly expanded the breadth of the rumor, but while trying to shut it down. It's a no way. the situation. I think it was the right call because whether you call a little more attention to it or not, the important thing is you send the message that
Starting point is 01:03:23 it's not true. And that's the important message that you're sending to anyone who is following it and anyone who follows it from there goes in with the precedent that it's already been shot down. But I bet you they had, you know, I bet we're good friends with the Ottawa VP. I haven't
Starting point is 01:03:40 talked to him about this, but I'm sure Ian Mendez had a lot of long conversations about this with upper management and how to handle it because it's just an absolutely no win situation. Yeah. All right. That's going to do it for us.
Starting point is 01:03:51 Thanks for listening to this episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. Good news for you. It's double Sean Wednesday next episode. Gentilly, Mac and Doe, Frankie Carrado. Have you then. We'll talk to you soon.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.