The Athletic Hockey Show - Predictions for the NHL season, JT Miller's extension has Canucks in win mode now and Mike Babcock retires from coaching

Episode Date: September 7, 2022

Rob Pizzo and Jesse Granger return with a new edition of The Athletic Hockey Show roundtable to tackle predictions for the new NHL season. The guys provide their sure-shot predictions, the 50/50 shot and the long shot, including will the Boston Bruins make the playoffs, will the Maple Leafs advance to the second round and what playoff team from last season will miss the cut this year?Thomas Drance from the Athletic Vancouver joins the boys to discuss the Canucks expensive extension for JT Miller, what's next on GM Patrik Allvin's to do list, Bruce Boudreau seemingly at peace in his contract year and how the Canucks need to be in win mode now.Plus, Rob and Jesse discuss Mike Babcock's announcement that he is retiring from coaching, (unless an NHL team comes calling, Team Canada wins gold over the US at the Woman's world's, Keith Kinkaid's Happy Gilmore mask and pulling the goalie in overtime in the KHL. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What's going on, everybody? Welcome to another fantastic edition of the Athletic Hockey Show. I am your host, Rob Pizzol, for this Wednesday Roundtable Edition. Join as always by Jesse Granger in Vegas. How are you, Jesse? I'm doing great. How are you, Rob? Yeah, some time off.

Had a week off to enjoy, well, you enjoy the sun and hot weather. Yeah, hot, hot. Man, I see people, like, it's obviously hot everywhere around the country, and I see people posting, like, screenshots of the temperature, and they're like, oh my God, we're dying. And I'm like, yeah, it's like 15 degrees hotter than that in Vegas right now. Yeah, it is insane. This is the time of year.

You know, I'm based just outside of Toronto. And we're trying to squeeze out the last drop of nice weather. You know, I was at my mom's house and we were in the pool. And even though it was probably a little too cold for the pool, we didn't care. Too cold for the pool? What's the temperature there right? No, it's actually not bad. This week's supposed to be pretty good.

But the day I was at my mom's house, it was a little windy, it was a little chilly. It was, uh, and, and we were like, do we go in and we're, you know what? We've got eight months of, of shitty weather. I don't care how cold it is. I'm jumping in the damn pool. Nice. So, uh, yeah, that's what we're doing. I can't believe I was just talking to you about enjoying the nice weather because it is just an

oven there. Um, you might notice that Sarah Sivian not joining us. Uh, she is moving on to some other things for this upcoming season. I know we didn't really have an offseason, Jesse. We kind of bird right through the summer, so it's weird to call an upcoming season, but we obviously wish Sarah the best. We're going to have a new co-host. We're not going to tell you who it is.

We're going to leave it a little bit of mystery, like, you know, Hulk Hogan when he joined the NWO or something. Our new co-host will be joining Jesse next week to do the show in Vegas for the NHL's media tour. So you have seven days to try to predict who it is on Twitter. I'm excited for it. Yeah, I'm excited. I'm super excited for it as well. But for this week, you got Jesse and you got me and you've got Thomas Drance who's

going to join us in the second half of the show to talk all things, Canucks. Obviously the big news there, J.T. Miller signing that extension. But Jesse, you and I got a lot to talk about. We're going to talk about Mike Babcock, quote unquote, retiring. We're going to talk about pulling the goalie in overtime. C.M. Punk. Happy Gilmore inspired. masks. Can you tell it's a September 7th show for a hockey show with some of these topics? I mean,

this is this is not your typical, hey, why is this team lost five in a row type of show, is it? Yeah. It's, you know what? To my, I guess in my favor, the team I cover forgot that this was August, end of August beginning of September. I mean, there's been Golden Knights news the last couple weeks. It's, it's been very strange still having stuff to do. But yeah, I mean, around the league, we're grasping at straws here. Well, grasping of straws, I guess,

but I still think it's kind of fun to have these topics. So, you know, it's one of those like, you know what, it's the off season for everybody. Let's do this. And let's do this.

And I want to start with predictions because it's right around September, right after Labor Day, where I find all the articles on every hockey website I go to, the word prediction starts coming out. What's your prediction? Who's going to be the East,

what champion, who's going to win what awards? And of course, the athletic did it. Now, you know you were part of the group with Shane and Gentilly that kind of analyze the results of the athletics predictions. So I thought you and I would make some. And instead of just saying, who's your Stanley Cup champion, who's this, we're going to break this up. And you and I have been known, Jesse, to wager a dollar or two on the outcome of a sporting event.

I love the way you laugh there. So we're going to do this. I want three predictions. We're going to have number one, we're each going to make a prediction that's a sure shot, the favorite, the easy money. This is going to happen. Your second prediction is a 50-50 shot, a coin toss, something that wouldn't be a shocker if it happened, but it wouldn't be a shocker if it didn't. And then every time you gamble, you got to put a little money on a long shot. You want something that would pay off on very little investment.

And this isn't necessarily based on the odds, but just what we think will and won't happen. I'll let you go first, sir. What is your sure shot prediction for the 2022-23 NHL season? All right. My sure-shot prediction is Kayle McCar is going to win the Norris Trophy. I think Kayle McCar is going to win the Norris Trophy until we're tired of voting for him. He is the best defenseman in the league. He's young.

He's only getting better. I feel like most of the other guys that are in that conversation are the opposite. They're getting older. Victor Edmund, Roman Yossi. they're kind of not on the back end, but they're definitely not getting better, whereas Kail McCar still is, and I think he's already better than they are. So I think that's the slam dunk prediction. There's no way he doesn't win the Norris outside of like some crazy injury. Two things to piggyback on yours. One, he's so good that even if he misses a chunk of the season,

he's still in contention. Yeah. That's how good he is. And the other thing is a lot of times with the Norris, you'll have some defensemen kind of come out and come out of nowhere. Adam Fox is a good example of that. do you know how good that come out of nowhere season has to be to supplement Cal McCarr as the Norris trophy winner? That's a huge favorite. My favorite prediction, Connor McDavid scores 100 points. I mean,

he's done it five the last six seasons. The only season he didn't do it, he had 97 points. And he also had 100 in that 56 game short in season, which was bananas. It's automatic. He picks up his points. he's, it's, it's, if Connor McDavid doesn't score 100 points, I don't want to say something crazy

because then people will hold me to it. Like, I'll eat my pen or some stupid, you know, shit like that. But Connor McDavid is scoring 100 points. And Kail McCar is winning the Norris trophy. Two best players in the league. Yeah. I mean, it's there, they're, it's them and everybody else. All right. Number two, your 50-50 shot, the one that could happen, couldn't have basically even money. Yeah. And I think we're both kind of going the same direction. on this one in terms of, I guess, what type of prediction it is. I'm going to go with the New York Rangers miss the playoffs. And I think last year after the regular season, if I would have predicted that,

I don't think that many people would have been that surprised because they kind of came out of nowhere. Their five-on-five numbers were not good last year. If you look at the metrics of this team, they were not a playoff team. They were carried by incredible goaltending by Igor Shisterkin. I think, I don't think Schisturkin's going to take a step back. I think he's still a stud, but I think his numbers will take a step back because this position is, where else can they go? Right. This position is, is just that way. You cannot keep up that kind of those kind of numbers forever. I think that while this team is young and heading in the right direction and I like Gerard Gallant, I think that division is tough. You've got Carolina, Washington, Pittsburgh. They're still going to all be there. I think Pittsburgh might take a step back. But I see the four team or the three of the four that missed the playoffs last year all in. improving. I think the islanders are going to be better. Not that they did a lot to improve, but I just think last year they were abnormally bad. Columbus, I think is going to be better.

I think the devils are getting better. I just see the Rangers. There's some teams on their heels, and I could see a little step back in goaltending and that team missed the playoffs. Well, both our 50-50 shots are a team not making the playoffs. I have the Bruins not making the playoffs. And I keep saying this, two teams that seem to really want to almost squeeze out the juice of their core the way I squeeze out the nice weather here in Canada. Pittsburgh and Boston, keep trying to do it. The Boston Bruins are sticking to that core. It's the last chance they have to do it. No Marchand for a huge chunk of the beginning of the season. Goaltending, I mean, Swaybant and Allmark, I just don't have all that kind of faith in them, especially with

the blue line that they have right now. The Boston Bruins would seem to be a mainstay when it comes to the playoffs. I just don't see it. I just don't. And the core is just getting to a point where it's it's older and how much more can they take. You know what I mean? I think that I hate saying anything negative about Patrice Bergeron. I don't want to say anything negative about him because he literally does everything well. But as we know, every year as you move on to the NHL, everything well just becomes a little bit less, you know, a little bit less intense, with a little less intensity, I guess is what I'm looking for here. You know what else is interesting is they're running a new system in Boston for the first time

in forever because Bruce Cassidy's out. But when Bruce Cassidy took over that job, he was, he, they brought him up from the HL through the system. He basically just kept running Claude Julian system. Like, obviously he's going to make tweaks. But like since before Claude Julian is the last time this team ran a different system. All these veterans teach an old dog new tricks. That's all that's it's they've been running this system their whole life and now they've got to run something different. Maybe that could could give them

issues. Funny thing is what you just said is either going to prove me very right or very wrong because a lot of times a new system is exactly what a team needs and suddenly they win the division. They make a run. But I'm going with the Bruins not making the playoffs. All right. Your long shot my friend. You're million to one put a couple bucks on it because it probably. won't happen, but it's fun to have a cheering section. Yeah, I don't know if I'm going long enough on this. Pete, the listeners might give me crap. I don't know, but I had to go back to my roots with the goalies.

I'm taking UC Soros to win the Vezna. I absolutely am the biggest UC Soros fan outside of Nashville. I love his game. He's a little goalie. You don't see him in the league anymore. He's like, I think he's listed at 5-11. He looks smaller than that when you watch him. But he's just, his skating is so much fun to watch.

he's got elite athleticism. I really like UC Saros. And I think the GMs are trending away from what used to anger me so much about Vezina voting, which was which goalie was on the team that won the most games, which goalie had the most wins. That's what it was for so long. And like last year, Igor Shostirkin was on a team that barely like, it wasn't the top team. He didn't have the most wins, but he carried that team. You saw it with Connor Hellebuck with the Jets. They're starting to trend in that direction. I think UC Soros is a goalie who can carry an under talented team to the playoffs. So I'm going UC Soros upsets Shisterkin and Vasilovsky to win the Vesna. It's funny how the voters do that with the Vesna, but they don't do it with the Jack Adams.

Right. You know what I mean? Like I've always been a big believer in, you know, when John Cooper wins over 60 games in a season, something's got to be coaching. You can't just go, all right, guys, roll four lines and go out and do it. But when it comes to goaltending, I agree. And let me ask you as a guy who loves to bring up goaltending at any point that he can. Have you ever seen a better passing of the torch with goaltending from Peca René to UC Soros? I mean, I think so many times we see goalies come in with such hype. Here's the new savior. We've drafted or we've traded for a young goalie.

They need time to learn under someone else and to have that slow passing the torch. I think that's exactly what happened in Nashville. Yes, Nashville is phenomenal at it. their goalie development and the planning, the planning to get it to the right time. Because the thing is, we're about to see it again in five years or whatever because pecorina was spectacular. The moment he wasn't peccarina anymore, Sarros was ready. They've got Yoroslav Ascarov behind him. To me, my favorite goalie prospect I've ever seen Russian kid, they took him in the first round, 11th overall pick, I think two years ago, 2020. To me, he is, if I could take one goalie under

20 years old right now in the world, it's Yaroslavaskarov. And they've got him right behind UC Soros. Nashville knows what they're doing in that. And that's it. It's kind of like, you know, remember the like the Red Wings teams of the 90s where every time someone was becoming older and aging and on their way out, they had a whole new crop. Like they were constantly looking ahead. I find that the press do that so well. My long shot, and I think I'm going to get some shit for this too, because it shouldn't be a long shot. The Leafs get out of the first round. They follow. finally get out of the first round for the first time in, well, I think the last time they did it was the day before forever ago. This team is just too good.

And I know that there's holes and certainly goaltending. You and I've talked about their goaltending at length in the off season. But I was the guy screaming at the top of my lungs after that Tampa loss that they easily could have won that series against the two-time defending champions, the team that went to the Stanley Cup final. They looked so good. I think that the Austin Matthews and the Mitch Marners of the world learned what playoff hockey is for the first time. I hadn't seen it before that. I think, and I know that division is so tough,

especially, you know, top that division, the top three or four teams in that division, they make it out of the first round. I'm going with it. And if they don't, I never said a damn thing. So guys, there's our predictions, our glass, what are they called, crystal ball, probably none of them are going to come true because that's just what happens when guys like us make

predictions. A few more things before we go to break. So Mike Babcock, if you remember last year, he was the coach of the University of Saskatchewan's men team, men's team, excuse me, resigned, then did an interview on AM 680, CKOM, and Saskatoon, and said, quote, we always said we were going to retire at 60. And I'm 59. So basically, that's what it is. is. Now, if things change, I guess they change, but surely that's not our plan, end quote. So essentially saying he retires. We have 10 teams, Jesse, starting this NHL season with a new coach. I don't know about you. Did you hear Mike Babcock's name being brought up as far as interviews go? Is this just a guy saying, I'm done, so I'm going to see I retire. And if five years someone

finally wants to give me a chance, I will. But nobody was picking up. the phone calling. Again, I'm just speculative. Right. Outside of Vegas, obviously, I'm not as plugged in. I don't think there was any chance that the Golden, I don't think the Golden Knights had much interest. Some guys, like, just love coaching and can coach forever and coach not in the spotlight at Saskatoon or whatever the hell he was. Mike Babcock doesn't strike me as that. He needs the spotlight. He is, he is like in a, in his own mind, he's in a Hollywood movie and he's got to be in the spotlight. I think this is 100% him saying, I'm retired in case any of the NHL teams want to hire me. I'm just saying I'm out here. I don't know if they're going to. I wouldn't if I was an

NHL team. But yeah, I think he likes coaching in the spotlight, maybe more than he likes coaching hockey, if that makes sense. I don't know. That's just the vibe I get from Mike Babcock. He also doesn't strike me as someone who would take an assistant coaching job. Right. Right. I just don't see him saying, okay, I've been humbled. I have to change my coaching style. Let me go somewhere where I can help. I just don't see it. So yeah, I mean, I love the one people use the word retire. Like, he's not a player where you're like, if you don't play for three years, it's tough coming back. Like, you can coach it. If he came back to coach 20 years from now, you're like, okay. But I remember when he was that quote unquote, he was the first real free agent when it comes

to coaching when he, you know, signed with the lease for that monster contract. And I'd never seen that before. I'd never seen, like, a coach lay back and just let all these teams make their offer and say, oh, let me pick the place I want to go. And I don't want to diminish what he did. But we're talking about a one-time Stanley Cup champion. We're not talking about, he's not Scotty Bowman. It's been a while.

Like, hockey is much different than when he won the Stanley Cup. And I think that's why. I think that's why people are. And, you know, gold medal with Canada, I get it. Yeah, but I think I could coach Canada to a gold medal. I was going to say it, but I didn't want to say it, right? I mean, it's really tough to screw that one up. So, yeah, I think a lot of teams said, you know what?

No thanks. It's not worth all the trouble that comes with it. So Mike Babcock, quote unquote, has retired. Jesse, I've been hosting hockey shows a lot of years. It's not often I say this. To the KHL we go. I don't know if you saw this. CSK goes into overtime in one of their games.

By the way, the head coach of CSKA is someone Sergey Federer, former Detroit Red Wing, former Hart Trophy winner, multiple Stanley Cup winner. They win the draw, the opening draw, three on three overtime, just like in the NHL, and you see their go fly into the bench. And he pulled his goalie to create the four on three. It works.

and they win the game. I'm sure you saw it. What was your first reaction when you saw it? And number two, do you think this is going to make its way to the NHL? So I'll admit my knowledge of the KHL, like minutia rules, limited, very limited. I don't watch a lot of KHL hockey. The first thing that popped in my head, the first thing that popped in my head was, do they have the same rule that the NHL has?

Because we all know the NHL, if you pull your goalie in three on three overtime in the NHL, you have forfeited the loser point. If you get scored on with an empty net in overtime, you don't get the overtime point. I think maybe some people don't know that. I'm wondering if they have that rule in the KHL. If they do, he's a psycho. If they don't, that's why he did it. And it, and it's the reason it will not be making its way to the NHL because teams love them some loser points. They keep the standings bunched. There's no, I don't, I would be willing to wager it will never happen in the NHL because you would have to be, in the Unless you need two points to make the, like it's the last regular season game of the year,

and you need two points to make the playoffs. And it's the only way you make the playoffs. Maybe because then the loser point does you no good. That's pretty much the only situation I could see a team in the NHL doing it. To answer your question, the KHL does not have the same rules in the NHL. There you go. You get scored on in the empty net. You still get your charity point.

So that's when you start balancing the whole risk versus reward thing, which I agree with. That has to come into play. you're giving the other team an empty net in overtime. It doesn't, like, let's boil this down to the common denominator. It's insane. Yeah, even with that, it is still crazy. It's insane. Especially at four on three because there's so much more open ice.

Like when it's six on five, it's hard to score an empty net goal because you've got nowhere to go. The team has six guys. They can hit you. When it's four on three, it's like to skate your way out of the zone, it should be easier. Forget skating your way out of the zone, Jesse. You get possession of the puck. and you're looking at a wide open cage. These players are just too good.

They can find the, you know, the center of the net from their own zone nine times out of 10 to win the hockey game. That's it just, I get the charity point argument. I just, I saw that and I'm thinking, oh, and of course, I wasn't watching the game. I'm like you. I'm far from a KHL, you know, officianto. I saw the highlight and I went, no way. And then I heard whoever was doing the highlight pack say, and it paid off.

And I went, you've got to be kidding me. It's nuts. But it's kind of like my own Patrick Wa. I used to start pulling his goaltender with like nine minutes left in the third period. I like creativity. I always have. I think it's nuts. If I ever become a coach, which I won't, I wouldn't do it.

But man, oh, man, as soon as I said, I wrote that down, I'm being Jesse, got to talk about this because it was pretty crazy. I want to ask you again, going back to your goaltending. I know you love talking goaltending. I don't know if you saw Keith Kincaid's New Jersey. It is a happy Gilmore inspired mask. On one side, he's got the quote, tap, tap, tap. On the other side, he's got a picture of Adam Sandler. I love this stuff too. What's your favorite mask of all time? That one now. Yeah. My favorite mask of all time is probably Curtis Joseph. It's nothing like crazy, but just for me as a kid growing up, like the Kujo mask with the teeth around the cage,

that was just iconic for me. I really, like, when I think goalie masks, that's the first thing that pops into my head. I love the Kujo mask. Um, that one is awesome, though. Like, I, like, in, in the notes, in the, in the, in the pre-show notes, you asked me like, what, what movie would you put on your mask? I may be happy Gilmore. I mean, I love golf. I love hockey. The, the movie perfectly mixes the two. When I was a kid, I used to watch this movie, like, every day. Um, outstanding mask. What about you? Okay. My favorite mask, I've had quite a few. I remember when Kelly Rudy, that rare blink of a time where he was the San Jose shark,

and it was the shark mouth. You know, and I just, because remember when the shark logo came out, it was really one of the first super, super creative logos with the shark, you know, biting the stick. And I thought anyone who does anything like that,

it's just cool. You want to go real back, Jerry Cheever's with his stitches all over the mask. Yeah. I thought the fact that every time a puck hit him there, he'd put the stitches on

was so cool. As far as a movie goes, I mean, you can't go wrong with a slap shot reference because it's hockey. But I would go way off. Like my favorite movie of all time is Goodfellows. Like something like that. Like if you've got, if you've got De Niro and Pacino, not Pacino, excuse me,

if you've got De Niro and Pesci staring you at the face as these guys taking a shot, that's pretty intimidating. I think I'd go like a mob movie or something like that. In Vegas, I think a hangover reference would work well on a mask too. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. that'd be maybe baby Carlos with the glasses. I found a baby before.

You found a baby before? Let us know your favorite mask and what movie would you put on your mask because Kincaids was just awesome. Big news this week as J.T. Miller signed that massive extension with the Vancouver Cadux. We've been waiting for it for a long time. Didn't know if he was going to get traded, signed what he did just that. Thomas Drance is going to join us after the break to talk about it.

on the athletic hockey show, the Wednesday Roundtable Edition. Don't go anywhere. All right, before we get to Thomas Drance, I do have to mention in the break, Jesse, we were talking about the hangover quote and our producer Jeff Domet, who's battling through being sick right now.

He said, how do we not say, in the face, in the face? Which would have been the best thing to put on a mask. So good job, Jeff. Even when you're sick, you're coming up with good ideas. Huge news out of Vancouver. J.T. Miller signing that extension, seven years, 56 million bucks coming off.

that 99 point career high season, finally putting all those trade talks to bed. And Thomas Drans broke this thing down in amazing detail on the athletic. So we figured let's pick up our Zoom call and call him. How are you, Thomas? I'm doing well. Thank you for having me, gentlemen. Oh, it's great. And we're going to post a picture of our screenshot that we just took.

He's got a microphone that looks like a goal light, which is perfect for hockey. And you're in a room that looks like you're from the. movie Pretty Woman or something just with all your shoes. So I'm glad you can join us in style. I have a lot of brown shoes. I don't know why. I just do. And yeah,

I mean, this is one of those gamer lights. Like this is straight up for Call of Duty players, poning nubs, but I did buy it intentionally because I thought it looked like a goal light. So I'm glad you guys appreciated it. You know, it's a good thing to put on a goalie mask.

There you go. Well, actually probably not. No. You want nothing to do with that. Goleys hate that goal. Let's get into it. You heard me talking about the J.T. Miller signing, which I was reading your piece and you said, quote, it landed with a surprising thud. Break this thing down for us when you heard about it. What's been the reaction and were people just sick and tired of hearing J.T. Miller's name over the last 10 months?

Well, in Vancouver, you know, we're pretty good at beating a dead horse, as it were, when it comes to Canucks and Hockey Talk. And what was funny about it, for me, especially on Tuesday, as the news cycle unfolded and J.T. Miller did a Zoom and Patrick Alvin was made available to the media at, you know, the Canucks's makeshift practice facility. You know, the amazing part about it was this is a contract, right? Where like JT. Miller's just signed for more total compensation than Henrik or Daniel Sidene ever signed for, right? It's the longest deal that Canucks have done since the Louis Erickson. six-year contract ill-fated in 2016, right? It's probably the most impactful bet. This franchise is made since signing Roberto Luongo to a 12-year contract, also ill-fated. You might sense a trend here. This is the Vancouver Connects we're talking about in September of 2009. And three questions in, we've already moved on, right? What does this mean for Bo Horvette becomes the tenor of Alvian's availability, which, you know, is classic Vancouver. So, yeah, I mean, the Miller trade speculation ran hot, ran long in this marketplace. And ultimately, you know, having exhausted a variety of

options this summer to move money, you know, I think the Canucks felt they got a fair deal done. And yet, you know, the reaction in this market was hyper polarized, right? There are people that believe in this team. C. J.T. Miller is the best player on it. And we're excited to see them lock in a player widely believed to be the best forward on this club long term. And on the other end, there's a variety of fans who are skeptical about this team and about the overall direction of the franchise and see this in line with the club's habitual win now desperation that has sort of doomed them to the mushy middle or worse for most of the past decade.

And so, you know, we'll sort of see where this goes. You look at the books, you look at the Vegas bookmakers. Canucks are seen as a they're over under set at 92 and a half, right? There are even money pick them to make the playoffs. Well, if you sign a contract like this and if you extend Bo Horvatt thereafter, you better make the playoffs in year one before those extensions even kick in. It's felt like a pretty big bet and maybe a premature one, considering Vancouver's place in the NHL and the Pacific Division pecking order

as, you know, sort of a bubble team. Seven years, not eight, which is pretty significant for a contract that doesn't kick in for 10 months, right? It is. But if you look at comparable centermen, right? If you look at comparable centerman, you know, you get sort of a list of guys that includes like Tomash Hurtle, right? You know, you get Sean Keturier. You get Mika Zabanajad. You get Cadry.

You get Matt Dushan. You even get Sasha Barkoff based on the fact that, you know, J.T. Miller outproduced Barkov in the platform year prior to signing a extension. Like, that's how good Miller was. He was a 99 point forward last year. You look at all of those guys. And even though Cadre and Duchenne only signed seven year deals, one thing that's notable is they did it as UFAs, right? They did it where seven years was the max deal that they could get. Miller materially left a year on the table, which sort of sets him apart from basically every comparable centerman that you might consider, with the exception of Nicholas Baxter, who was 34 when he signed the contract, right? So, you know, I think this was a fair.

deal from a pure market value perspective, right? From a pure market value perspective, I think the Canucks and Miller found something of a middle ground, right? Even the structure of the deal. It's favorable to Miller on the front end with a heavy dose of signing bonuses in the first three years, sort of favorable to the Canucks on the back end. You know, the trade protection becomes modified. The, there's no signing bonuses in the final year of the deal. So only 42% of that sort of last year cap hit is is guaranteed from a cap liability perspective vis-a-vis a buyout. There's no signing bonus in the potential work stoppage year, right, which I'm sure Canucks ownership will love in the event that that season is scrapped in classic NHL fashion.

And so, you know, I sort of look through this deal. And from pure market value perspective, I see it as a fair one. Like, I see it as a pretty decent contract outcome considering Miller's unique leverage. You know, Miller gets the security of getting paid off of that perhaps a. replicable contract year and Vancouver gets, you know, a deal done with a really good player at a level they were comfortable with. I don't think the sort of questions in this marketplace or the concerns in this marketplace anyway are based on the overall valuation of the deal itself so much as where the team is. Like to summarize it, I think concerns in this market or

valid concerns about the contract hedge on whether or not this was the right player on the right contract at the wrong time for this franchise. And that's sort of on the star players on this Canucks roster and the Canucks roster as a whole to kind of put that concern to bed by actually playing really well like they did in the last 60 games the last season, this upcoming season. It's something we just haven't seen as the Canucks haven't hosted a playoff home date since 2015 and haven't made the playoffs over a full 82 game season in just as long. Yeah, I mean, I totally agree with you. And I think when you look at the Canucks and this all boils down to where are they in the pecking order of the Pacific Division like you said it's probably the weakest division in hockey I'm being kind it's definitely the weakest division in hockey oh I want to I want to quibble with that I don't think that's true anymore really look at the central man the central has been hollowed out way more than people are willing to admit I think I think there's a real real chance or a path not not a super likely one I'm not saying I bet on it but I think there's a path if the

Vegas Golden Knights put whatever weirdness has afflicted them behind them. And if the Kings continue their glow up and Edmonton and Calgary does Edmonton and Calgary things. And Vancouver's, you know, rides their top goalie and their elite power play into a playoff picture. Like, are there really four teams in the Central that are, that are for sure better than them considering Nashville's sort of very pronounced mediocrity and the Dallas star's inability to do anything when Robertson

Pavelsky and, oh my goodness, Rope Hints aren't on the ice. Like, I don't know. I think you can see two central teams fall out and all five, like five Pacific teams make it. I really think that the central is diminished so severely and we're just not able to appreciate it because of our regard for what it was seven years ago. Appreciate the shittiness of these two divisions. It's basically what you just say. The central, the central though, I just like, like there's, it's the sick old man

division. You know, like there's a lot of teams that, you know, I think are in a lot of trouble outside of Minnesota and Colorado. I think you're, you're right. If all the Pacific Division teams all hit their ceiling, which to me doesn't seem as likely. But what I was going to ask is they obviously were really good under Bruce Boudreau. Yeah. And if you look at the record under just him, this is a playoff team by far.

Like they're easily, yeah, it's not even close. They're easily in the playoffs. you mentioned like they're making a gamble here basically by making this deal. Do you think that the front office believes that that's what this team is now? Or is it the classic new coach bump? They played really well and then they're going to kind of go back to what they were. Well, it's more than a new coach bump, I think, when it lasts 57 games, right? I think Bruce Boudreau did a pretty phenomenal job. There's no question about it. I actually was surprised he didn't get more Jack Adams consideration and kept sort of telling Canucks fans when I was on radio that if you wanted to find a

bet for the Canucks making the playoffs, I thought Boudreau for Jack Adams was a smart way to go about effectively doing that. Now, when I consider what Vancouver looked like in the last 57 games, right, when I consider how they won, right? One thing Boudreau sort of implemented was that he entirely stopped trusting that defense corps to even attempt leaving the zone with control of the puck, right? It was all high flippy. It was all punt and hunt. just push the battle into the neutral zone. And that kind of worked. The forecheck got ramped up to a level of aggressiveness that, you know, wasn't typical.

I mean, the Canucks played pretty aggressive forechecking hockey, too, under Green, but it got to a totally different level under Boudreau. And that kind of worked too. And the reason it worked was that the forwards are good enough to manufacture some offense, even if the defense sort of isn't at the level when Quinn Hughes is on the ice anyway, to connect play consistently and attack off the rush. Like they can't kind of attack as a team. They kind of need to catch opponents sleeping.

They need to turn the puck over and immediately generate offense. And look, it worked really well, but I think there's concerns on the management side about the defensive structure that the team played with, about the overuse of a variety of players. Luke Shen in the top four, Tyler Myers is, you know, a 1A defenseman five on five. I think there's some concern about how sustained

The team's sort of winning ways are going to be, if that's the case. Thatcher Demko got ridden a little too hard when the team lost faith in Yaroslav Alak and didn't make it through his first season as a starter. Obviously, that would doom this team. If that occurs again, there needs to be a pretty carefully managed workload there, far more carefully. They need to manage his minutes far more carefully than they did last season. And, you know, I think there's an understanding, too, that this team golead a lot of a point. on a night to night basis. And so I think management's pretty clear-eyed about the distance to travel.

And even though Patrick Alvin insisted, you know, I'm happy with my defense corps, like, they're not, right? They're not. They spent the entire summer turning over every rock trying to upgrade the defense corps, trying to find a young defenseman. They couldn't do it. It's not easy to do. They don't have cap space to do it, you know, opportunistically either.

And so, you know, I think there's a sense that this team's got a relatively long road ahead to get the to mold themselves into a contender. I think management sees that and understands that. But I also think they really like the core. And when they sort of looked at the situation all told, I think they thought, look, Miller at 8 million isn't what's going to, you know, be our cap issue, right? Like our cap issues aren't going to result from signing a really good player to a really big ticket. They're going to result from us having Jason Dickinson at 2.65 and Tucker Pullman at 2.5, like it's the middle class deals that they failed to move this summer that now the pressure is also on them. Like the pressure's on this core group to perform and make the playoffs,

but the pressure is also going to be on management to find some of those salary shedding deals they failed to find in their first off season next summer if they're going to continue to progress in any kind of linear fashion with this project. Thomas, going back to Budrow for a second, X's and O's aside and style of play aside. And obviously I'm not in the room or you're not in the room when he's just addressing the team. But the vibes are good. Yeah. Has he mellowed out of it compared to the old Bruce Boudreau?

I feel like he's having more fun and smiling more than I'm used to seeing Bruce Boudreau doing. And I wonder if that rubbed off on the team a little bit because when you're not succeeding, everything seems like it's, you know, the world is falling down around you. And I watched a lot of their press conferences where it seemed like Bruce Boudreau was kind of having a blast. No, Bruce Boudreau was definitely having a blast. Look, maybe. I mean, I'd have to ask him.

because my experience with him is all smiley, right? Like I didn't cover him a ton in Minnesota. I didn't cover him a ton in Anaheim or in Washington. You know, I saw 24-7 when I was in college. It was so long ago now. But yeah, I mean, I think being out of the game the way he was for 18 months and truly sort of looking in the mirror and facing his hockey mortality, right? The idea that he might not get a chance to do this thing that he lives for again,

I think has made him really grateful. And he resonated in a massive way. Like I don't think there's ever been, with the possible exception of Pat Quinn, but that's the sort of company we're talking about. I don't think there's ever been a coach that's resonated the same way in this marketplace, right? Fans chant his name as sort of a cat call to teams when the Canucks are winning at home now. It's a pretty special relationship in the early going. It seems to be a pretty special relationship with his players as well.

And yet, you know, he goes into this final year. with no security, right? No security. He's on the last year of his deal. He's a lame duck coach, the club having declined to even discuss a contract extension with him prior to the summer. So, you know, there's a pretty interesting scenario unfolding here. You know, pressure is high on everyone on this team, right? I've talked about the core group. I've talked about the onus on management. Hey, onus is on Bruce Boudreau too, right? If this team doesn't succeed out the gates, will he be here by Christmas? I don't think it's an unfair question to post. considering his contract status.

So, you know, we're going to see here. Now, I just want to quickly say one last thing about Boudreau, which is, you know, in looking through the sustainability of this team, right? Are they the 106 point team that they were under Boudreau? If you sort of look at it, their five-on-five numbers in the first 25 games were pretty consistent, maybe even, maybe even slightly better than they were in that latter 57 games, right? What really sort of propelled this team last season under Boudreau was the elite power. power play, which was also generating a ton in the first 25 games, but couldn't catch a break and then

ran super hot for 57 games. The penalty kill was probably the best work he did. It went from historically bad, like sub 60% kill rate to league average, roughly, right? If they're league average on the penalty kill again this year, that would be a huge improvement. Obviously, they brought in Ilya Mikhail and Curtis Lazar to help out there. That's going to be a crucial part of this season. So, you know, I sort of look at the profile under Boudreau and still see a team that goalied, like relied too heavily on their goaltenders most nights, but, you know, had good enough special teams to sort of overcome a pretty middling five on five profile. You know, at the end of the day, if you have an elite power play and elite goaltender and are just fine at five on five,

that's usually, usually enough to make the playoffs. But I do think the Pacific has enough elite or potentially elite teams. I mean, really, I only think Calgary is an elite team in the Pacific, but Vegas could be, right? L.A. could be. And Edmonton certainly has an elite top end. You know, if a couple of those things hit, the Canucks could still be in tough despite sort of some of what they have. So we'll see. I think it's a tall order to ask them to sort of continue and maintain that 106 plus point pace that they had under Boudreau, particularly given the fact that they were able to lean on the best five on five goaltending in the NHL, which no team maintains year over year. Like, I don't care if you have Henrik Lundquist and Cam Talbot. I don't care if

you have Rask and Tim Thomas. I don't care if you have Luongo and Schneider. Like, no team. Those teams didn't maintain the best five on five save percentage back to back seasons. It doesn't happen. There's too much random variance. And when that regresses, do some of the seams, uh, which are this team's sort of, uh, Achilles heel in on defense to those begin to, show a bit more, I suspect they will. And that's going to make this a pretty interesting season to watch play out. We, Thomas, we made our predictions earlier in the show. And I actually, I predicted that the Rangers will miss the playoffs was my hot take. Oh, I love that. Specifically because of the goaltending for the exact same reason you just gave that like Igor Shosturkin is going to be an

awesome goalie and he's not going to put up the same stats he did last year. So, so I'd like to transition that into, do you have a hot take prediction for the Canucks this season? It can be a individual player, it can be team. Yeah. Can I grill you though first? Who do you have going in? It's so I I didn't give a specific team that went in, which you have going in, bud. But I do think that all three, three of the four teams that missed the playoffs in that division are improved to me. I think the Devils got better. I think the Islanders didn't get better, but I thought that they were abnormally bad and they were going to be better this season. It was a funny season. Yeah. And I think Columbus is better also. So, so I guess if I had to take one of those teams, I'd probably take the Islanders,

but I wouldn't be surprised if the New Jersey Devils are in the playoffs. No, the New Jersey Devils glow up is coming, is coming. I'm riding for that in advance. They just need average goaltending and they're, they're going to challenge for that division crown. That's my, that's my hot take. Hey, my hot Canucks take. Oh, you know, I, I, I probably need to wait a little bit on this. Here, here's, look, I'll loop it back to J.T. Miller. I'm going to, I'm going to, my hot take is that Miller doesn't hit 80 points this season. Wow. I'm going to go with that.

You know, I look at his individual point percentage, which was, you know, through the roof, 75 plus percent for a guy who's usually been at, you know, in the mid-60s. That alone could take a 10 percent chunk out of his production. So you remove nine points right there. Team shot 18 percent on the power play with him on the ice. 18 percent is, you know, not a not that overheated, considering Vancouver's, you know, bevy of efficient finishers, five on four, but I still think it's a little high. That goes down, you know, 15, 14 percent. You could see another five points taken from his total

there. And then, you know, guy had the second most secondary assists in the league behind Jonathan Huberto, but he also had 20 fewer primaries, right? So, you know, a little bit less of that random distribution luck, having sent the hockey pass to a guy and happens to translate into a goal, a little bit less of that could also eat into his production. You know, J.T. Miller can still be an $8 million player if he's a 75 point producer for this team, especially given his, you know, utility on the penalty kill, the fact that the power play runs through him, his overall two-way utility, at least when he plays wings. So, you know, I'm not picking him to have a disappointing season by any means, but I do think some of those offensive totals were overheated.

And, you know, without committing myself to a Canucks playoff pick and angering my VIPs this early in the off season. Also, I want to see the vibes of training camp and I want to see, you know, some of the decisions and where the, like, I like to make my playoff prediction for the Canucks for the team I cover on the day the regular season begins, right? So I'm going to, I'm going to hold that one close to the vest and instead pick an 80 point mark for J.T. Miller that I think he'll be hard pressed to eclipse this upcoming campaign. Well, the JT Miller signing may have gone down with a surprising thud, but this interview certainly did not.

Thomas, thanks for doing this, man. Goals all day, boys. Goals all day. Jesse hates that. Jesse's a goalie. He doesn't want to see goal lights. He's used to seeing those when he plays men's league. Sunburn on the back of the neck.

Board them all day, Jesse. Board them all day. And Thomas, I'm going to check your Twitter account, opening day. I want a prediction whether the Canucks make the playoffs or not. You can get all your fields in training camp. I want to know. Thanks for doing this, man. Thanks, Rob.

Be well. Thomas Dr. Dr. who covers the Cadux for the Athletic. After the break, rapid fire. So don't go anywhere. All right, my favorite time of the show and yours, rapid fire. We got a few things to go through.

This one going down today, Kirby Doc. agreeing to a four-year, $13.45 million dollar contract with the Montreal Canadiens. Save you getting the Calculule. later. That's 3.3a.A.V. Your thoughts on this one, Jesse? Yeah, good sign for the team and for Doc. I mean, he's only 21, so this isn't even going to get him to his UFA years. Most of these guys don't get paid this early. I think it's good for him to get that, get out of that ELC and start making some money because he's a really good player. And it's good for the Canadians to have him locked up after, I mean, when you trade for a guy that's, even if it's an

RFA, still under team control, they're still kind of that, like, how long is this guy going to be here. So to get him locked up is good for the team too. Speaking of deals, three years, $12 million with the Dallas stars, Jake Ottinger. We talked about this with Pete DeBore a couple weeks ago. People wondering when this was going to get done. This got done too much, too little or right on? It's hard to tell with goalies, especially ones with as little sample size as Ottinger has. What gives me a little more confidence that Ottinger's legit, it's not just that series. I mean, that series, he was amazing. Like, I can't remember a playoff suit. Maybe J.S. Jaguer is the last time I remember a goalie dominating a playoff

series the way Ottinger did that first round, even in a loss. But this guy's been elite at every level he's ever played. Like when he was 16, he was the best goalie in the world in that age group. And then he went to college, and he was amazing in college. He was a first round draft pick. The guy's been elite in his whole life. He gets to the NHL. He proves he can do it at this level. I feel like this guy is going to have a really long career. If he continues on this path, this three-year deal will be a steal for the stars. But there's always some pause with goalies. Number three, the women's world championship wrapped up this week, Canada beating the U.S. 2 to 1. That's back-to-back world championships for the Canadians to go along with that Olympic gold medal.

They won five months ago. For me, the one thing that stood out from this tournament was literally in the last five seconds of the gold medal game, Marie-Philippe Poulin diving in front of a puck to stop a potential tying goal. I know I'm Canadian, you're American, but what did you think of the tournament? I'm curious to hear from you, like, what was the hype like around this tournament?

Because, like, World Juniors, there's obviously some other stuff going on with that. There was an interest in that. I'm curious how into this tournament was Canada? When Canada played the U.S. And the final preliminary game and the gold medal game. And that's the problem with these international tournaments. And I know, I don't want to be that guy who bitches about it every single time.

And people say, well, what are you going to do? The other countries are getting better. Well, until they do, that's what's going to happen. We're going to see, like people like myself, I, when it's Canada, US, okay, grab the remote. I'm watching. I'm not watching many of the other games because you just want to see a good hockey game and you know it's probably not going to happen with the preliminary games. And that's what ends up happening. So there's the hype, the answer to the hype. I'm not anti-women's hockey. Get off Twitter right now. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying I wish the

competition in these tournaments had a little bit more competitiveness in the earlier rounds. We'll call it that. And finally, I can't wait to talk about this one. Are you a big wrestling guy? No. Neither am I. I used to be in high school, but not anymore. But I know who CM Punk is. And he's, he just did a pay-per-view event for all elite wrestling. And a reporter by the name of Dominic DiAngelo was wearing a penguin's hat and was asking him, I guess, a wrestling question. And if you got kids in the car and you're listening to this, turn it down for about 10 seconds because he literally said, quote,

fuck Sidney Crosby. Fuck Malkin. You know what? Fuck Ron Francis. How about that? I'm still pissed off about 92. Then somebody said to him, what about Lemieux? He says, fuck him too.

I love, love, love, love when a guy or a woman or anybody is so much a fan of their team that something from 1992 still pisses them off. Just the side of that logo pissed him off. I loved every second. Yeah, it was great. I only know who CM Punk is because he came to UF – I'm a big UFC fan. He came over to the real fighting and got his ass kicked once. That's the only reason I know.

what he is. But the interview was, I saw the clip on Twitter. It was phenomenal and I totally agree with you. It's cool to see like these guys who are like in the public light. It's cool to see their fandom. They're just like us. They're pushed off about things that happened 10 years ago, 20 years ago to their favorite team. I remember seeing somebody tweeted about, you know, poor Ron Francis just kind of wakes up. He's having his coffee. He turns on the TV. What the hell do I do? But I get it. And our producer, Jeff, can completely back this up. When we were together at Hockey Night in Canada,

and we did our radio show. I grew up, I will admit, in high school, a diehard Red Wing fan. And Jeff came to me and said, hey, today we're going to have Clode the Mew on the show. And my, like, my immediate, like, enthusiasm for the show went down the toilet. I'm like, I don't want to talk to that guy.

You saw what he did to Draper? I suddenly turned into Teenage Rob again, like just so, angry about something that happened so many years ago. So guess what, CM Punk. I'm with you. Well, that wraps up another show. Jesse, what do you got going on over the next week or so? Yeah, exciting stuff. Getting ready for rookie camp opens the 14th. So we're a week away from players being on the ice. Not the, not the big club players, but still, hockey players in Golden Knights jerseys. I'm excited for that. This week, I've got a cool story that I, that I'm,

I'm a big fan of writing film studies stories, just breaking down some film. And the big topic in Vegas this offseason is the power play. It has been an embarrassment for two years. They add Bruce Cassidy, who coached one of the best power plays in the league in Boston. They add Phil Kessel, who's a powerplay specialist. And Jack Eichael, obviously, is really big on the powerplay. So I broke down with film how Eichael and Kessel fit into Bruce Cassidy's powerplay system. I think they fit well.

Can't wait to read that. Can't wait to hear you. with our new co-host next week who will be joining you in Vegas for the media tour. So I'll see you then. But before we go, I want to let all of our listeners know as I do each and every week.

I sound like a broken record, guys, but we want you to do it. Follow us on your favorite podcast platform. Don't forget, leave a rating and a review. Right now, you get an annual subscription to The Athletic for just a dollar a month for six months when you visit theathletic.com slash hockey show. The Athletic Hockey Show returns Thursday

with Ian Mendez and down goes brown. For Jesse, I'm Rob. See you soon.