The Athletic Hockey Show - Prospect Series: Cutter Gauthier-Jamie Drysdale trade breakdown, quick thoughts on NHL Central Scouting midterm rankings

Episode Date: January 12, 2024

On a special edition of The Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series, Max and Corey break down the Cutter Gauthier-Jamie Drysdale trade and discuss how the deal impacts the rebuilds in Philadelphia and Anaheim respectively. Plus, the guys give their quick thoughts on the just-released NHL Central Scouting midterm rankings.Subscribe to The Athletic Hockey Show on YouTube: http://youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowGet a 1-year subscription to The Athletic for $2 a month when you visit http://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody. Max Boltman here alongside Corey Promin for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show's Prospect Series. We just wanted to hit you with a quick episode this week. We were actually going to be off, but then things got newsy in the NHL world and especially in the prospect world. And Corey, I was on the show yesterday with Haley Salvi, and we were talking a little about the Gochee trade. But really, I'm curious to get your take on this. Obviously, a, prospect for prospect trade of two prospects of this caliber is not an everyday occurrence and a needle mover.

And this one has a bunch of moving parts. And so I wanted to kind of get your overall reaction to this deal. Right. I mean, any commentary on this deal is hard to make without, you know, pointing out that the deal only happens if Gosef forces his way out of Philadelphia. and the exact reasoning to why he forced his way out of Philadelphia, I think it's the most interesting part of this trade. And it's something that none of us really know.

Their camp has decided to be real quiet about it. I think I saw Kurt Overhart, his advisor the other day, say, we're taking the high road. I dispute whether they're taking the high road or not. But they have chosen not to talk about why they wanted out of Philadelphia. so it's hard to make a thorough analysis of the situation without knowing all the details. But in terms of the players,

like Cutter Goce is a great player. But I think Jamie at the end, you know, people have talked a lot about Cutter and the talent and his great world juniors and everything. And he's a true top prospect. I think Jamie Drysdale's abilities in this conversation have been lost a little bit.

I think he's a really good hockey player. I think in terms of pure talent, he's right there with Cutter. I think the issue with Jamie has been that he's been hurt a lot the last few years. He hasn't played a lot of hockey the last two seasons. I think maybe it's been like 20 games, something over the last two seasons. And that's not ideal. Actually, when you're a small defenseman and now you have an injury history.

So I understand there's some risk variables there. But as a, you know, he's an elite skater. He moves pups really well. He's competitive, high character. It could be a legit high minutes, two-weight offense. in the NHL, presuming he stays healthy. If I could ask you to put your GM head on in a minute, if you hear that a prospect like Cutter Goce is suddenly available, how much of, from Pat Verbeek's standpoint, what's

your response to trying to get to the root of not just can I get him, but like what's, because I don't know that, you know, Philadelphia doesn't seem to know what's going on. It's a hard trade conversation to have. Are you almost asking why are you trading me this? this player all the sudden? Well, that's what I meant at the top, is that there's some weird details around this situation right now.

Philadelphia has said, we don't know why he wanted out. And then when Cutter Goce was introduced to the Anaheimedia the other day, he said there was a number of situations that had occurred over the last two years that led up to this. So, and, you know, we've heard the rumors about something about him playing time or cap overages.

And when I hear all this stuff, something is missing from this picture. There's something strange about the situation. There's some critical detail that I feel like not just ourselves in the media, but even talking to people in the league that generally is not well known at the moment that led to this. And yes, if I was at Anna Hines' position, and I see Carter Goce, who's a 6-3-4, who skates well, who has legit skill, who has a bullet of a shot,

you know, could be a legit top line forward in the NHL, is a senator or a wing on their team, you know, particularly when you have Leo Carlson and Mason McTavish, never mind, Trevor Zegris already, you know, who knows, but he's a, you know, he's a great prospect. But if I hear he's on the market, I probably do want to know a little bit more to the story here.

in terms of why was he available? Because you don't want to be walking into a situation where something analogous happens to your organization. I mean, I mean, I mean, I mean, the exact same facts, but you may run into a different situation now with Cutter-Goche. You kind of want to know is there something really bad happened in Philly that a reasonable person will want out or was it the opposite? and you might be buying yourself a problematic player.

So I do hope that if Anaheim did get the answer to that question. When we'd look at the Ducks prospect, well, we talked about this in the article that you and I did with Scott in the immediate aftermath of this trade the other night. I now look at this and I look at Leo Carlson, Mason McTavish, Trevor Ziegress, and now Cutter-Gotier. I think that's as formidable a group of young forwards as I can see in the league, not just because it's a bunch of high picks,

but because it's a bunch of high picks that have some traits that are hard to find, size, compete, the ability to play center, all of them can score and can bring offense. Is that a fair assessment? Is this as good a collection of young forward prospects as exists in the league now? Well, I think the question is, what's the future with Trevor Zegress in Anaheim right now? I love Trevor Zegris. I think he should have a future in Anaheim, and I think he provides some, you know, truly special skill and hockey sense elements to that organization,

but he doesn't have maybe the compete that the other guys have. He doesn't have maybe even like the speed that someone like Goce or McTavish has. But I do think, yes, if I was presuming you can build around that cold, never bind someone like a Troy Terry who is a very good player. I do think that can be a great set of forwards to build around. And then the question then becomes Anaheim, and I love Pablo Michikov and Olenssel Wecker, Tristan to know our good young defenseman. But then the question is, how do you build on defense from there on out?

And I think the answer to that is in this draft. Like we've talked about how good this draft class is on the blue line. And I think we're going to talk about that again in a minute here when we get to the central scouting rankings. But I was having a little bit of a debate with Haley on the show yesterday. And I would love to get your thoughts on this. Anaheim is very much in the lottery mix here. And it is not out of the realm possibility at all that they win the draft lottery and the right to select Macklin Celebrini, who is the presumptive number one overall

pick. My feeling, though, is I think it's an interesting question whether you just do what, you know, the lottery is supposed to be for, take the best player at another amazing young center into your organization, or would this be a situation where you really consider trading back knowing you need the D and you can get some assets to move back and do that? Right. And I think there's outside of, say, the first overall pick, which would be, I think, Celebrini right now.

The draft happened today, and I feel pretty confident saying that I think after that, I think there's going to be a lot of positions very early in the draft where the best player available is going to be a defenseman. I think there's, I would say, three to four truly exceptional defense prospects in this upcoming draft. And presuming Anaheim's going to finish at the bottom of the standings, which is, feels like where they're trending right now, uh, I feel they have a very good chance to add a premium defenseman to their

organization. And I think San Jose is kind of in the same spot, right, where I think you look at their organization. They have, they have guys like Will Smith, um, in their,

in their organization, an ideal world, uh, they would add a premium defenseman if they don't get celebrini. I think that both then and an high murder position to either had an outstanding, uh,

dynamic two-way center to the organization or get that defenseman that they really need. But if you're Papua Beak and that on lottery night, Bill Daley's showing your card, are you thinking, okay, now we're going to have Celebrini Carlson McTavish-Cotier? Or are you thinking let's see if we can stockpile another asset and get the D week? We're maybe thinking we were going to take anyway. Well, that's where I think you start seeing like, you know, like I said, before the aforementioned Z-Earest conversation and stuff like that. but I would have a very hard time saying no to Macklin Celebrini.

I mean the guy's special. You know, he's legit first overall pick, potentially an above average first overall pick. Like, he's pretty freaky in terms of, so the way he plays the game and with no notable weakness at all in his game, which is not something I ever almost say about any prospect. I found weaknesses in Bedard's game. I don't think there's any weaknesses in Celebrity's game.

Like, this guy's a really special hockey player. Flyer's side of this trade, we talked about this in the article as well, they are the ones who get the now player. And I do think that that works for them okay. Obviously, you're not happy with how the whole situation transpired, but you are getting a guy who I think they plug him right onto their top pair the other night. And they are the team that's in a playoff race right now. And from that standpoint, I think if you're the Philly fan, the silver lining is,

as you said, you still get a talented player, but you get one who can help you right now as you're in a playoff race, whether or not we think they're going to stay there. They are in one right now. Yeah, and I think their team's been one of the better stories, I think, of the first half. And you look at not just the, you know, in terms of how they're playing, you see, like, young players like Tyson Forster and Bobby Brinker having very nice years for them. Oh, and TIP is continuing to progress in a very positive direction. You know, they're starting against me, you know, guys like Cam York playing big minutes for them.

It's, you know, it's been a good story. And I think you add Drysdale, who I think, like I said, it's a very good player. It could be a legit top board offenseman for them right away. maybe it does help them push for a wild card spot I think if you ask pure player is Carter Gocei a better hockey player

than Jamie Drysdale The answer I think is yes long term Do I think it's outrageous to suggest in five, six years that Drysdale could be a better player than Gochay I don't I think the gap is close enough

I think that's why you saw it was Drysdale plus a second round pick in two drafts from now Obviously there's a leverage component to that too. You know, my understanding is, you know, Philly was looking for a specific match. They were trying to get a young defenseman back for Goce. So, you know, in terms of the quality of players, it limits your market there a little bit.

But I don't think he's that far off. And I think Drysdale could be a really big component of the rebuild long term. And I don't think their rebuild is substantially changed by this trade. I don't think there's between Goce and Drysdale was going to change the Chishdale. trajectory of this team. I still think it's the same core. You're still talking about Mathe and Michigog. You're still talking about whatever player you're going to pick first in this upcoming draft. And I still think the question in Philly is how does this team come together, given that they're not picking the bottom out approach really right now. And they're not

really in a true contending spot right now. And I would say their farm system is good. It's not incredible, though. So I think that's still the question in Philly as opposed to how does losing Gochay but adding Drysdale change your team's outlook, both in the short and the long term. And I think especially at the center position, because we've seen teams that don't go the bottom out route have a harder time finding those premium centers. And that was, you know, if you were someone who was worried are the flyers, you know, in some way like kneecapping themselves by being in this playoff race and not picking high again, one of the remedies was, well, they already got their top five pick center. And that that's a good way.

out. If you don't pick in the top 10, it does get a lot harder to find those potential top six centers. Yeah, and you look at the the Flyers organization right now. It's like, you know, Morgan Frost has been just okay this year, right? I mean, he's sometimes in and out of the lineup.

Sean Couture is going to get up there in age eventually. You look internally in their system and there's no clear answer. I mean, I love Montbeinichkov. Love him, but he is an NHL wing all day. I don't care that he dabbled at centers at time of this season. So you're right. I think, I really like a lot of what the Flyers are doing right now as an organization,

but I do think there are some big long-term questions, particularly at the center position now without Goce, that they will have to find an answer to. All right, Corey, let's talk now about some of the other news that came out this week. That is the midterm rankings from Central Scouting, NHL Central Scouting, top five from North America, Macklin Celebrini, Ardem-Liv-Schunov, Kaden Lindstrom, Zeev Boyam, fresh off the world juniors, and Trevor Connolly. And from the European skaters, you've got Consta Heleneas, Anton Selyev, Ivan Demadov, Adam Yurecheck, and Emil Hemming on the top five on the European side.

Just kind of first thoughts here jumping in. One of the things that stood out to me on the North American list was the placement of Z. Bouem, who has moved up to number four ahead of even a guy like Sam Dickinson in London, another really smooth skating defenseman with a bit more size. Are we seeing kind of the effect of Bouillon's World Juniors here and really his whole first half at them? Yeah, I think it's more the first half in just the world juniors. I think, you know, this guy has been one of the best defensemen in the NCHC as a draft eligible, playing big minutes on a top team and, you know, really skilled. He lead hockey sense. He skates well.

This is definitely a guy who I think is moving up teams list really quickly. I think there are legit conversations going on in NHL teams about him versus Cole Eisenman, him versus Archimble of Shunov in terms of their, the U.S. say regional lists and, you know, where exactly goes on the draft is he go five, because he go 10, as he go 12. I don't know, but he's going to go in the lottery range for sure. You talked about it in the last segment, those three or four top D here. Do you want to shed any more light on who you're thinking of as you're saying that?

Well, for me, I think, and I don't have volume in that group as we're recording right now. I still am trying to put together my next ranking. And he's in that conversation. If he's not four, he's five. For me, there's four defensemen that I think have distinguished themselves, and that would be Anton Salaev and Torpedo, Sam Dickinson in London, Artem Lechudov in Michigan State,

and Kariak and Chuck in Calgary. I'm not sure what the order is. And then if there was a fifth, that might work the way that conversation would be Boyam. I think those are the premium defensemen. I mentioned four defensemen with size earlier, then that would have excluded Boyham. but I can see him be in that conversation for sure.

But I think those are the guys that I think, for me anyways, have distinguished themselves early on in this draft process. Oh, how rare, I don't, rare might be the wrong word, but for a D class to have four defensemen of that caliber

and they are able to have size. And maybe if you bring Boyman into that conversation as you're, I don't want to put too much pressure on the kid, but I feel like Quinn Hughes is a comp that we hear for, especially just kind of his production as a freshman in college hockey. To have four defensemen with size and then that skilled playmaker, like how rare of an opportunity,

important of an opportunity is this for NHL teams who usually struggle to find, you know, blue line help when they need it, especially with some of those physical traits. It reminds you a little of the 2008 draft class a little bit, the bearing outcomes on that one, obviously,

but that's where you had Drew Dowdy at two, Zach Bogosian, go three, Alex Petrangelo, go four, Luke Shen, go five, and then you have Tyler Myers, go 12. And then, you know, now, funny, you mentioned the small puck mover, Eric Carlson goes 15 in that draft.

Obviously, the order of that would be a little different, you know, 15 years later. But I think there are some analogies between that class and this one. At the top of that draft, you did have, you know, a number one overall pick in Stephen Stamcoe, who was the clear number one in that draft as a dynamic center prospect. So I think that the 2008 draft, I think, has a lot of similarities to. the 2024 draft. Two guys you mentioned that I want to key in on. Carter Yakum Chuck in the Western Hockey League

is one of those big defense and with a big set of hands. I mean, how have you kind of seen him rise over the course of this season? I see, I just don't see what there is about this player that you can't like, to be quite honest. I see 6-3. I see a good skater. I see high-end skill. I see

a big-time shot. He's very physical. Maybe the hockey sense is. it amazing, but I think it's good enough. And he has a ton of offense. And he's going to end the year with like 25, 30 goals. And when you have that kind of size and mobility and you play hard too, like, I don't know, he looks like a pretty high-end defense prospect.

To me, he's like a better skating David Eurecheck at the same age. So I think, you know, I said, I think he's right in that conversation with those other guys to be the first defenseman picked. And I think the offensive production from Celal, of out of the gate has cooled a little bit. Obviously, it was never going to stay at that level. And Torpedo in general. Yeah, Torpedo in general hasn't been winning as much lately.

His ice time has gone down a little bit, but it's still the KHL. What is he? I have like 10, 12 points already as we record this right out. I mean, that's incredible for a 17-year-old defenseman to do. And he's still huge, and he's still mobile and very physical. And I get there are some, he's slowed down a little bit. I think he was going to have a 30-year-old. point sees it in the KHL.

I didn't think that was realistic. But I, yeah, I mean, just not just my opinion, but talking to people around the league. Everyone's still super high on this player. He's the guy when I talk to people around the league, and I asked them, if somebody were to unseat Celebrini,

who would have been in? The most common name is Celaya. I'm not saying he will unseat Celebrity. I think the gap is quite significant at this stage, but he has been the most common candidate as someone who somebody could talk themselves into. Yeah. We saw Adam Urechek go down at the World Juniors

and it sounds like he's going to be out for the rest of the season, from what I understand. Yes. So what does that kind of do to his draft stack here? On the European list, he is number four, like we said, which is a good spot to be, but I always wonder with guys who don't play down the second half, do you just kind of hold your status or does it end up,

unfortunately, kind of making you slip a little bit? Well, he wasn't playing great in the first. have. So I think that's an important context. He was getting limited minutes in the Czech pro league. He wasn't amazing. He played the U-20 team with Cheki in November. He was good, not great. Really

just kind of living off his outstanding Hulig Gagretzky, where he was one of the best players there. Played so well that Chekky almost actually won that tournament against that loaded Canadian team. And I actually thought in that World Junior game, the first World Junior game, he was actually playing

at a fairly solid level. up until the injury. So we'd be interesting to see how his entire tournament would have progressed. So I think, you know, talking to teams right now, I don't think he's, I think coming into the year, you thought after, Holyka, this guy could be a top 10 pick, not ruling it out. But I would bet more like 10 to 15, I think,

seems like his projected range right now. And then the two, I think, wingers that we expected to be talking about in the top five conversation the start of this year, Cole Iserman, Ivan Demadov. Demadov is still obviously very high on the Euro list number three. But Iserman has slid down a little bit to number eight on the North American list. What are you hearing about Iserman and how teams have viewed his first half? Well, I just think, you know, we had this conversation a lot in the 23 draft,

where I felt like all you were talking about wingers, wingers, wingers, and then the draft came. There were some defensemen that started creeping up, some centers started creeping up. And I think, you know, premium centers, premium defensemen are always going to be prioritized when it comes to the draft. I would feel rather confident that those four, maybe even fat defensemen I mentioned, are going to go ahead of either one of Demadov or Eisenman, potentially both. I think Caden and Lindstrom and Berkeley Caton have a very good chances going ahead of both. Both are look like excellent center prospects in the Western Hockey League.

And I think for wingers to go ahead of those kind of premium center and defense prospects, they have to look like absolute game breakers. and while I think Demadov and Isman are having very nice years, I don't think they are having the years that make you think back, that they are special elite, you know, bring you out of your seat type of wing prospects, like, you know, or have like the special qualities, like say like a Yer Islavkovsky had going into his draft

where he was like 6'4, he can skate, he had a ton of skill, and had those outstanding performances against men or something like that. I think they have chances to change the conversation. I mean, Eisenman has his most important hockey ahead of him with the U18 world in April and the Five Nations in February. And maybe Devadoff comes up to play in the pros in the second half at some point. I don't know.

That's what Scott did with Mitchcoff last year. But based on their play in junior this year, they've both been very good. But I think you asked by Eisenman specifically, I think his game is going to pick apart a little bit just because I think there are some concerns on, is this hockey sense anything special? Is this competing anything special? You know, we're looking at, you know, people are thinking of, you know, the shoot first winger that have gone high, guys like Walshrem,

guys like fellows, guys like Yili Tolvanin, on the worst case scenario or on the best case scenario, maybe he's Owen Tippett. Maybe he is the next Colophil, which would be a great scenario. But I think those player types tend to get picked apart more. And then just in my experience

watching prospects, guys who are shoot first wingers, who don't offer exceptional traits off the puck tend to rub evaluators the wrong way. And then one more guy off of the World Juniors that I wanted to ask you about. Michael Brandsig-Neguard, I did expect to actually see him in the European top five here. He's at number six.

He's not far off. But what impression did you get off of him in Gothenburg? More negative than positive, to be quite honest. I don't think he, I think coming in, we were hoping that he was going to have a statement of world juniors. And it's tough when you're on one of the bad teams. like David Reimbach didn't have a good world juniors at all last season. Same thing with Marco Casper and his limited world juniors before it got canceled. He didn't look all that good.

But the distinction between those Austrian teams and the Norway team is Norway was not a terrible team. Yes, they eventually got relegated there at the end. But they were in some games. They got power play time. They had puck possession. You know, they, I mean, I think against the U.S., what was like, it was like, it was only like four one or five one to the United States. Yeah, to open a tournament, yeah.

Again, the relegation game against Germany. They were still, that was the game they were right in there with. So they had some competitive games during the tournament and where they had the puck. And I just didn't think he stood out. I think he's a good player. He skates well. He competes. He can shoot the puck.

He's got some skill. But there was definitely, I think, a lack of standout traits there from his game that I think would worry some scouts. And if you were thinking of this guy is like top 10, top 12, maybe top 15 coming in. My guess is coming out of that tournament. teens are looking at him maybe more as like a second half of the first type of pick. A lot of time left obviously remaining and more central scouting rankings to come. Corey Ts, his own rankings, next set of rankings to come. But that is going to do it for us today.

Thanks for listening to this episode of the athletic hockey show prospect series. You follow us on YouTube at YouTube.com slash at the athletic hockey show. And right now, get a one-year subscription to the athletic for $2 a month when you visit the athletic.com slash hockey show. We'll talk to you soon. Thank you.