The Athletic Hockey Show - Rating the NHL Draft’s top defensemen

Episode Date: May 15, 2026

With the NHL Draft quickly approaching, the guys break down Corey’s latest ranking and mock and discuss defense as the strength of this year’s draft class, rating the six blueliners projected to go in the top ten. Plus, they answer listener questions in a long-awaited mailbag to close things out. Hosts: Max Bultman, Corey Pronman, and Scott WheelerWith: FloHockey’s Chris PetersExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris FlanneryWatch full episodes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowJoin our Discord Server: https://discord.gg/VTm9VjkFSubscribe to The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside the athletics. Corey Prondman and Scott Wheeler and Flow Hockey's Chris Peters for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. A lot to get to today. We're going to be talking about the defense class in this 2026 NHL draft. We're going to be doing a mailbag, a long overdue mailbag. Sorry we waited so long on that. But first, I want to start, Corey, you've got a new mock draft and a new ranking out this week.

And I want to just start with the ranking here because you've got a tier at five. at the top. Give us a little bit of a high-level overview on how you view the very top of this draft class. I think my opinion of the top is kind of similar to what a lot of people I talk to in the league is that I think there's a really tight cluster at the top. And because of that, you could put these players in a variety of orders. I think most teams still have some combination of a defenseman, which defenseman, it could vary. the center, Caleb Malhotra from Brannford, and the two wingerers in Gavin McKenna and I

are Stenberg in one of their top groups, but there could be two defensemen in there, there could be three defensemen, some have four defensemen, and so I think it creates a lot of interesting debate. I think you're going to see a lot of variety from list to list. Like I've seen, we've done a lot of mock drafts recently where we have Stenberg falling to four for Chicago, for example. And I've seen that. generates a lot of outrage. Like that's where the league, I think, views this draft right now is I think there's going to be a lot of teams coming

out of meetings that have Stenberg, three, four, five, six on their list. There's going to be a lot of teams coming out. They're going to have Rita 2 or read at 5 or 6. Like, that's, they're going to have Mahotra at 2 or maybe like 3 or 1, and some are going to have them closer to 6 or 7. That's kind of how the draft, I think, is right now.

It's a very tight cluster in names. I have analogized it to the Owen Power draft. I think there's a lot of similarities there and similarities in how I've struggled with this draft. You know, people have, we've mocked, or like teased me for the variety of names I've had number one over the course of the year, although this is the state. I have Reid still won, like I did a month ago.

But there have been times when I've watched Mahotra here in the postseason, and I flirted with the idea of getting him to one. When I saw Smiths in the Olympics and at times in the DEL playoffs, I, Albert Smith's from the Latvian defense from Munich, I debated getting him up to one. It's just been that kind of draft for me. And so I think it's going to create a really interesting dynamic. And I think it creates some uncertainty in this draft going forward

is that it could kind of unfold in a bunch of different ways over the next couple of years. It's interesting because I felt like when we talked about the draft last week, though, we all still kind of felt this is Gavin McKenna at number one most likely. Even though you have him ultimately on these rankings at four, you still feel that way. Yeah, I think that's kind of the consensus view I get is that I feel like most evaluators still have them out one. I don't feel they have amount one with a bullet, though. I think that's, there's some uncertainty there. I think if you are betting on who the Toronto Mapleys are going to select at one, that's the guy I would bet right now.

I wouldn't bet my house, though. I think, you know, there's going to be a lot of really good conversations. And I think kind of what we discussed last week is I think it all comes down to the exact evaluation is we all think Gavin McKenna is an excellent hockey prospect. We all think I have our Stan Barks and an excellent hockey prospect. And then it comes down to how do these compare, these players compare to some of these defensemen to Caleb Bajotra. Where's the lines? How close is it? And then you get into the discussion of premium positions and ultimately what you want to acquire in the draft.

I think the McKenna debate, I think, comes down to, I think most people would agree. And I think we would all agree he's the most talented player in this draft. If there's one player, I think we all think is going to hit 100 points among this forward group. It's going to be him. Like, this is the guy. Like, he's got some special skill, special offensive instincts. And I think that's why, you know, when you pick out one, you want to think, I have a special feeling on a player. I think he gives you that special feeling.

But there are some concerns there that I think could open a door for. him not going one as well. I do not think this is a foregone conclusion. Did you have Corey Artie Levsunaugh ahead of Ivan Demadov? I did, yeah. I didn't like Demadov's. Well, Devadov was a strange one because I didn't get an official measurement of him until basically the week before. And then by then I elevate him to that same grouping essentially. So yeah, and Debedov then, he was he was, he was six one by the end of there too kind of thing so that was a little bit of a distinction but yeah no i think that's a it's a good conversation about you know those two players versus the defenseman

is are they just so skilled um i think that's more i think i more might have overrated left shunov than underrated demadov but i think there's a that could be a combination of things because when i like when your list came out today i was a happy for this podcast and for our debate is coming up because we actually, a year after we've struggled to find any debates between our two lists, there's a lot this year. But B, that was where my, like, I think you inherit, and I know you've said that all five of them are close for you, that you still have to rank them. I think you inherit a lot of risk. Like, you better be sure that those 3D are all studs. And we've talked about it on the pot. I haven't been able to get there in terms of that confidence

level. Like, those guys better be first pairing guys if if you believe that Stenberg and McKenna can become point per game wingers. So that's, that's kind of... Are you worried about that? I have words in all five. I have words on all five of those players.

I don't think any of them are like, anywhere close to where Schaefer was a year ago. You know, you look at the last two times Schaefer and McKenna played on the same team was the World Juniors a year ago and the Halinka Gretzky 16 months ago. And Schaefer is one of the youngest players of his draft class. Bekanah is one of the oldest.

So they were only like two or three months apart. And like they weren't even close in terms of the impact they had on a game in both of those events. So like I think there's that I think there's those are five excellent prospects. And I think you can get Carls in there. You can get Malhotra in there. That group to be six, seven deep for me quite honestly. Like those are like those are all really excellent prospects. But they all have flaws.

Carl's in Malhotra, I think you have some offense concerns there. I think same thing with Smiths, you're wondering how high in Verhoff too, how high end the offense ultimately is going to be. Reed, you wonder about the defending. But Kenan and Stenberg, I think you wonder, you know, not elite skaters for that size. Like, how is it translate? You know, are they going to be really good players or just great or great players? Like, I don't think they're for sure top point per game players. I think that's what they project us.

But I think, you know, if Reed is a 50-point or, you know, defensemen who can run a power play and play 22 minutes a night, would you rather that or an 80-point winger? The 80-point winger. My thing is that you're counting on all, you're counting, even if that feels close, you're counting on all three of those guys becoming that. Like, all three of those guys need to become 50-point guys. Yeah. Would you rather have had Aaron Ekblad's career, or would you rather have had Penarin's career?

Panerans without even thinking twice. It's interesting because Panarin has the individual accolades. Eckblad has the two Stanley Cups, and it's team awards, but Eckblad did play huge, huge roles for the Panthers. Ekblad was what, in terms of usage on that team, their number three defensemen? I can pull his minutes up if you give me a second here. After forceling and...

In the two playoff runs, Eckblad averaged 22, 33, and 24. So if there was two guys ahead of him, that would shock me. Jones would have been ahead of him in the second room. Jones was for sure. Yeah. I had a 24? Well, yeah.

And Jones is who I have as Reed's comp right now for what it's worth. Jones was ahead of him. Jones was 2530. Eckblab was 24 last year and Forrestling was 2317. Yeah, but I think that's like, and it comes down to the McKenna, like Stenberg debate too, right? Like I think Stenberg's comp is Gensel. And I think McKenna's comp is Paneran. Who would you rather have had in their career, Gensel or Panarin?

I think there you're probably leaning Panarin. It's close. Stanley Cups, you can make the same argument. You can make the same argument. But, and granted, you can do this for Eckblad, too. I mean, Eckblad and I have Panarin over again. And I have Panarin over Gensel in this conversation in that, in that way, too, kind of thing. But I think, I think it's, I think where the distinction is, is not that I think that's, I disagree with Scott.

I guess I think you can make very reasonable arguments to take Panarren's career over Black's career for just a significant differential in offense and the power play impact and the star, you know, and the top 10 scoring in some times. But I think the distinction is how close it is. Is it close enough to warrant a discussion? I feel like I don't want to be putting words in your mouth, Scott. It feels like you don't think it's close enough to warrant a discussion. I think it warrants a discussion.

I just think you, there's real risk that you've, that you've put too much emphasis into the positional side of it if Gavin and Stenberg both hit. Because I think odds are that all three of those defensemen aren't all going to hit. If you're really confident in those, but it doesn't even sound like you're confident and like really confident in those 3D. No, but I, I mean, I think they're high, high end defense prospects. Well, is, is, is the. question though, like, is the risk tied to the expectation of what McKenna is in the public's eye?

I don't know what that means by that. So, so like in terms of the pressure to select the player that has been the most talked about, like, you know, in terms of like when Montreal didn't take Shane Wright, it was viewed as, oh, they're, they're taking a risk here with the bigger winger because they're not taking the guy that everybody thought was going to be the number one guy. And so my, like, like, that's the thing is like the risk, when you do the risk assessment, because I know that even in NHL, you know, like in the, when they're having these discussions, they are talking about the public perception.

They are talking about, like, what happens if we screw this up? And we were, we were trying to outsmart everybody. And we actually didn't. Well, I'm not putting myself in John Chaker's shoes in the management of the trauma, maybe, please. I'm just telling you guys what I think the grouping. are in terms of talent for this draft. What Toronto wants to do in their position is their decision. My question was more directed at Scott, though, in terms of like the risk assessment.

Like, do you feel like there's less risk in McKenna? I don't think you have to calculate the public perception into that risk necessarily. Like, I don't, I haven't considered that in my list. Ultimately, I mean, I've been very, very critical of Gavin and his flaws and the players. And the play off the puck and the detail and the laziness and all of that is still very much a part of the conversation with Gavin. But he has still, like, I think we've, I think we've gotten to the point. And Gavin and Shane Wright are not even close as prospects for me. But I think, but I think we've gotten to the point where we've picked Gavin apart to pieces and lost sight of what this kid has accomplished in the WHL in college hockey. Even Corey going back to his,

those two hockey Canada events. Well, the third hockey Canada event before that, he was better than Porter Martone as an underager at U18 Worlds and led the teams of a gold medal and scored a hat trick in the gold, a natural hat trick in the third period of the gold medal game. Like, we have to remember all of this with Gavin, and I think it's become, it's super popular amongst scouts, amongst agents, amongst people around college hockey that I've talked to

to really beat up on this kid. and some of it is warranted, but Gavin is still a premier, premier talent. Like, I don't think this, from a skill standpoint, this is a player that actually comes with all that much risk. I think the risk is in how much of a negative he's going to be defensively. That's what you calculate into it. I'm less worried about Gavin in terms of the offense, the power.

Like, that's, I think that ship has sailed. He has produced in line with players who, and you can see it in the playmaking, the video, the skill level, the touch on the puck, the way he thinks it. Like that is, there are premium, premium tools there still, even if you hate the off puck game. You say he's not close to Shane Wright. Is that not like a little revisionist?

Like didn't you have write one on your list? Do you think there was like that big a distinction from the two at the same point? Yeah, I had right. I had right, I had right, Nebuch one, two, three on my list. I also don't think he, any of those players are, like, I think he's a way better prospect than Slavkovsky was, a better prospect than Kooli was, a better prospect than Kuhli was, a better prospect than Nemich. I missed on Shane Wright at one.

Like that's, I missed on that. Is he way better than Kooley? Like, that's a, that's a, that's a, I think Kooley's become a one hell of a hockey point. He's saying at the time of the draft. At the time of the time. Okay. Yes. Yeah.

I think what, like, just to kind of put a bow on this, I think what, what it comes out from what I'm hearing, Corey is to me, it sounds like your. hesitance kind of comes down to when you have these, in most cases, like kind of big body defensemen who feel like you have a pretty high floor, it's kind of a downside argument, right? I know you've used the name Drew Ann as a downside risk comparable for McKenna. And if it's Drew Ann or kind of your average top four. Right.

Or, well, that's extreme downside. It's not even close. It is not even close, Neil Yakupov and Gavin McKenna. Let's say Drewan. but like, like, Drouin or just kind of your average, you know, top four, right shot D. I mean, Dr. I mean, Dr. I was the best player in the CHL.

He was elected. That's right. So let's use that one. If it's Drewan or kind of your average top four right shot D, what's the value discrepancy there? That seems like the most compelling argument against McKenna to me. Yeah. And I also think even in the best case.

Like I think if McKenna's like an 80, 90 point wing, or Stenberg's like this 70, 80 point hard to play against wing and Smith's become cider. like I think that's a really Upside for Smith At that point you're taking upside for Smiths And not ups I mean you've got to take an upside For McKenna's yeah but I don't know Like is it that outrageous

You look at what Smith's done this year Look at what Sider did in his draft year Like it's there's a lot of analogies you can make I think Smith's not as physical He's a little smaller Might have a little bit more offense At the same age than Sider did But I think like that's like I feel like

If you can get like a 50, 45 point defenseman Who plays heavy minutes like I feel like that's a massive piece. And I feel like if you were in the Maple Leafs position, and this is going to come up, Malhotra. I actually get more people in the league who say they think Malhotra's going, can go one than they do any of these defensemen for what it's worth. I think there's excessive interest in this player,

and there's a lot of people who are advocating for him at the top. But like the argument will come down to in the off season, what would Toronto have a harder time finding? Would they have a harder time finding a guy that Mahotra? where like a guy likes, like Chase Reed or Smiths, or they have a harder time finding someone like Ivers Stenberg. And I think, you know, you're, you know, I guess your opinion of Darren Radish and Rasmus Anderson may vary.

But I would, I would probably argue, you looked at the last offseason where Marner and Elyers hit free agency where Panarin just got traded. I feel like people would argue that's the easier piece to find. But it all comes down to how close it is. And I keep saying it's over and over again, people, people probably think I'm just beating a dead horse here. But if you don't think it's close, take the winger.

No issues. I have wingers ahead of senators. You know, like eventually you have, it gets to a point where you got to take the better player. But as I said in the intro to the column, I think it's basically a five-way tie between the five players I have. And then those six, seven players I have are nearly, it makes it a near seven-way tie, honestly for me.

So. I felt it was a four-way tie in the Wright draft, though. And at the end of the day, right was still one on my list. You have to, like you have to live with that. I'm living. Nobody remembers that I thought that Logan Cooley and Shane Wright were neck and neck or that Simon Nemich and Shane. No, but I think what Corey's saying is like, don't take this to me.

He's so down on McKenna and Stenberg. He's saying it's one big group. And if you don't have it as one big group, you obviously take the guys you have above that group. I think that's what that's the point. You know what? I've been hearing this whole time. We don't have a number one pick in this draft, which I said in January.

and I think that that is, I think that is, what a great year, Toronto fans, to have a number one pick. Because quite frankly, like, I think a lot of these guys are very good prospects. They're all very good prospects. There is not a single one in this whole group, including McKenna, that I feel great about. You know, and that's, and that's a hard place to be when you are picking one. Because I think there are guys that you can talk yourself that you talk yourself into enough and you're going to feel fine. But this class is, the challenge of this class is that there is mud everywhere. There is absolute mud that decreases the clarity of where these guys are going to end up.

Would anybody here go back to the 23 draft and take any of these players at this current point to Fantili or Liel Carlton at the same point in their draft seasons? No. I don't think so. Fintilli produced virtually identically, if not better, than McKenna and is like a six-two powerful center. Yeah. Yeah. He produced better. I can see Scott's face.

He's struggling with this question right now. I'd probably have them in the same tier. I'm not sure how I would have them slotted, but I would probably have Stenberg and McKenna, at least in the same tier as those two kids. As Carlson. At the time of the draft. At the time of the draft. Yeah. At the time of the draft was different.

Stenberg also had, obviously, I know. Obviously, I wrote this in my mailbag that you'd still take Carlson over Stenberg a couple of weeks ago because of the size and the skating and the position. Stenberg had a better draft year at the World Juniors and with the senior men's team based off what we've seen so far and in the SHL than L. Different level of hockey son. I mean, Stenberg's skill, competitor, are outstanding. Carlson's like a different level of hockey sense. It's fair to say. Yeah, and he's 6'3 and.

Yeah, plays center, all that. I think just just by starting. from the place of if you think it's close, take the D, I do think that people talk themselves into taking D is sort of the point I was trying to make. Like, it's the same reason you rank R.E. Lev Shunov ahead of Ivan Demadov, and then three years later, it's no longer close, right? So that's, I guess that's where I started this conversation. That's the point I'm trying to hammer home. Let's put a pin in the D because we're going to come back to that next segment. We're going to do a whole dive on the D in this class. One more name, Corey, I just, I want to get on your new rankings and

your new mock draft is Ethan Belches. A guy who earlier this year we were talking about toward the very top of this draft. And your latest ranking, he's at number 13. That's lower than I. I mean, I know he didn't play late in the year because of the injury, but that's lower than I expected to see him. Yeah, and he had kind of an up and down season. More towards second half before he got hurt. He was being productive and being a really important part of Windsor winning a lot of games.

He had some tough stretches there. didn't have a great Holinkogersky in the summer, didn't have a great CHL NTDP series in November. I think there were some concerns on, there's only been a little bit of concerns on his pace, but I still thought you still saw a really skilled, big, powerful, physical winger. I think as the season went on,

I think there were some questions on just how high end is the skill here. Now, I think in six months ago, people thought, yeah, there's a little bit of warts here, but man, like he's got a lot of skill, and he's so big and it's still a premium premium piece. I think that's going to be what people are going to wrestle with. There's a good skill. Is it a top six skill?

I think that's, you know, I think you, not to be lazy, but because he played on the same O HL team, but I think it's going to, you can compare him to like the, to Ilya Protoz or Alexei Proto. Ilya Pratt played in Windsor not Alexei, but probably say that he's not as skilled. guild as Ilya, but he probably has a little bit more jam in his game. And that's still a pretty good prospect. Is it an elite prospect? Probably not, but that's kind of where I think he fits.

The other thing I think that hurts him is a little bit is you have these other players like Glepukachev and Russia, and particularly Oscar Heming in college, who have kind of emerged as these big physical power winger over the course of the season. And I think for teams that will prioritize those traits, I think it gives them some more choices in that range of the draft as well. I think what surprised me is like it's now getting to the area where it's like where Brancic Neegard and Carter Bear went. And, you know, certainly those are good prospects, but I think Belches has more offense and more size than both. Maybe not more offense is bear. Yeah. Not as good as skater as them though. I think his skating is going to be an issue for some

people. Yeah. That's fair. I do think, I do think bear's skating is a bit of an issue too, but Yeah, and he's, he's, he's a guy, though, like, Belchitz is one of those guys where I could easily see, see a team snapping them up earlier than, you know, the teens. You know, like, yeah, in that, in that 10 to 15 range, you know, closer to 10. But, yeah, but he's, he's a tough, he was a tough eval this year, too, because I think last year we saw some more of that aggression and just more of that nastiness. And this year, I felt like he played with less of that and played. and played almost more into the skill game. And I felt like he lost his identity a little bit as a player. Like he was not a factor in that NTP challenge at all.

And that was a game where you say, there's going to be some snarl, there's going to be some nastiness. He's going to thrive in that environment. And yeah, both he and Rubreck could barely get on the ice in that game. Two big guys. So, yeah, he's an interesting one for this class for sure. To Chris's point,

I have still talked to teams that have. him in the 6th of 10 range. I don't think that, I think that was like a unanimous opinion four months ago. I don't think it's unanimous anymore, but I still think that he's being discussed in that area. All right. Let's take a quick break right there.

We're going to come back. We're going to talk about the D class this year in the first round. All right. We are back. And we're going to talk about the, what I think is the strength of this class, Corey. And that's the D crop. All cycle.

I feel like we've talked about this as a cluster of five guys at the top between Keaton-Verhoff, Chase Reed, Albert Smiths, Daxon Rudolph and Carson Carl's. I see where you've mocked Multigustifson and ranked Multigustifson this week, though. Is this now becoming a cluster of six names at the top? Yes.

I think after his performance of the U18 Worlds, where I think you could argue he was the best defenseman there, I think in the game against Canada, he was clearly better than Keaton Verhoff in that game. I think he is now in that conversation. I think for a lot of people they see now a 6-4 mobile two-way defense, defenseman. The offense this season in Sweden wasn't great.

He played on some bad teams. I think both his SHL team and his J20 team were both sent to the relegation round. You can argue whether he should have helped those teams for or whatever, but that's a legit argument. But what he showed at the UA teens, I think

swayed a lot of people and swayed me that I think, I don't think this is a power play guy in the NHL, but I think you look at this guy and you compare him whether it is to someone like you know, think of other Swedish defensemen, be someone like Simon Edvenson at the same age, or, you know, some Philip Broberg maybe. Like, I don't think he's, there's some distinctions there between them, but like he's not quite as fast as Brober.

He's not quite as skilled or as big as Edvenson. But I think six to ten, six to twelve, I think he's going to fit into that area. Just the athleticism he has, the minutes he showed he could play, that he could make a play with the puck. I think he definitely is now in that conversation if you want that flavor of defensemen. Yeah, I agree with that. Like, you know, he's a guy that really popped in that tournament. And I think it's one of those times where the under 18s where you get to see a couple of guys on the same ice surface together and you see the differences. And yeah, I agree.

Like, he was better than Verhof in that game. And, you know, the thing that I'll say, like, I still think that he would be at the very back end of that, you know, that. group for me. But at the same time, the fact that he's probably moved ahead of the guys like the Belchets and others that are moving down the board as a result, you know, I think there's every reason to believe that he could, you know, sneak up there and, you know, could he potentially go ahead of Vigo Bjork? Because is there things like, you know, those kinds of things.

I could see that happening. I think there's, you know, the size, the mobility. the thing that stood out to me at the under 18s is he played, I thought he played most like a man compared to his peers. And there was a real almost swagger to how he was playing at that level. And I didn't see that from a lot of the other top end guys in that tournament. By the end of the tournament there, he was on the ice every second shift. You go out to the Holinka where Axel Eilofsson was actually their leader in ice

time on that team that won to the gold medal game. Iloson was their number seven. Yeah, he played eight minutes in the gold medal game. And they just kept rolling, they just kept rolling Gusasen and Manz Goodmanson pretty much every second shift. Like he, they,

there was the utmost trust in him where it felt like the rest of that blue line did not have anywhere close to that level of trust. Corey sets up that interesting, Scott, about how, you know, Gus was, he's not going to be like the power play guy. It kind of makes me think. So let's kind of, for people who are checking into the draft now, it's draft season,

let's kind of typecast that the profiles of these top 6D here. So every team might be looking for a different thing in the defensemen they're targeting at the top of the draft. Who fits in what bucket, Scott? Reid is the premium offensive guy, despite the fact that his production never got to that like Ryan Ellis, Zane Perrek level in the OHL. Reed is the premium offensive skating, big shot, moves the puck, moves the puck,

transporter. That's, that's Reed's game. The defending for Reed has actually come a long way. And I've spoken to a lot of people around the OHL about that here and a lot of respect this year. And he was second amongst his conference and defensive defenders in the OHL coaches poll, which surprised some people. Smits, I think you're just expecting him to be a sort of all situations type. Carl's, same thing. All situations type. Carl's has the hardness, the skating, the competitiveness. also has the shot. Rudolph, I think, will be more, despite the fact that he's playing huge minutes in the, in the WHL, I think will be more of an offensive lean guy than a sort of true shutdown guy doesn't have maybe that that hardness that a Smiths or Carls can have. Gustafsinsen's a two-way type. I don't, again, I think the Broberg is more apt than the Edvenson. Like, Edvinson broke some ankles in his, in his draft year in the SHL that season and made some, like, high level skill plays. I haven't quite seen that from, from Malti. Al-Sfenzgen, not S-HL. Yes, in Al-Svanskin.

But he, he's, he's the two-way, the two-way profile. Like, I don't think he's going to be a premium premium guy on whatever team he ends up, but he's, he's the sort of top four projection. Corey, any disagreements with kind of those buckets or distinctions you want to draw? I didn't mention Verhof. Yeah. I, I still don't know where, what box. Verhoff fits into, if I'm being completely honest. Yeah, I think Verhoff and Smiths are like the athlete bucket, where like they just have so many tools, the size, the skating, the skill. Corey and I have a big gap on the skating with Verhof.

I do not see him as an athletic skater at all. Interesting. Okay. Yeah, that's kind of how I view the buckets there. Like, I think him and Smiths just have like the tools. Like they're just so toolsy. and talented and, you know, great body of work. I think they are not like, I think with Carl's, you can hang your hat on.

He's the toughest to play against among this group with Reed and Rudolph. You can hang your head on. They might be have like high, high end skill. I think other than their shots, I don't know if Erhoff and Smith have like high, high end traits, but I think the collection of traits are really impressive. And it's a fascinating debate because I think throughout the season, I can talk to a bunch of people in the league who have a different person at one. I think I have talked to

pretty much everybody at some point. At least one scout and usually multiple that I've had Smiths, Rudolph, Fairhoff, Carls, or Reed as their best defenseman in this draft. I have talked to teams

that have had Carls, Reed, Smiths, and Verhoff at some point in the season at number one overall on their list at some point this season. Like it's a really fascinating conversation, which gets to our previous segment, which is this is kind of a bucket. And when it's a bucket, how you break ties and how you delineate could make for things that might seem strange to some, but not strange to others. So I think you'll be, you know, I think you're going to see teams come out of the meetings and they're going to have, they might have things in a significantly different order than how we have things just because I think it's a tight group.

just, you know, but, you know, that's the draft. Well, that's interesting, coach, to me, when I hear that, when I hear that there's been four different guys, is it four different guys you said, have been ranked number one by at least some team at some point in this class? Yes. So, like, when I hear that, I think, okay, so are there four number one, potential number one defensemen in this class? Like, that would be a little bit anomalous.

It has happened before, but it would be a little anomalous. Yeah, but, you know, so go back to the power draft. Is power number one defenseman right now? I wouldn't say so. Is Evanston number one defenseman? No, he's a two. Is Benir's number one center? No.

Probably fringy, but more of a two. Nah, not on a good team. Is Luke Hughes number one defenseman? No. No. Is Mektavish number one center? No. I get your point here.

I see where you're going. Is Brad Clark anywhere close to number one defenseman? No, I get your point. I mean, I guess I'm thinking back. There are drafts. Grant had an excellent year. 18 draft. you get Dahlene Hughes, Dobson, Bouchard,

like you're making the case that you have four number one defensemen in a draft, even though Dobson isn't the number one Dianne Montreal. I think he's that level, even if it's a little fringy. I guess that's what I'm asking. Are we at that level of class, or are we talking about more of the Owen Power draft? It might, it's probably somewhere between. Like, I think you still like a lot of these players.

Like I would, like I have Reed, Smiths, and Verhoff projected as top pair of defensemen. So, you know, and I have Carl's kind of on the fringe there. So I think if you look at just the odds of how you think of what expected outcomes are, you would think probably one of those guys are going to underwhelm significantly. One of those guys probably becomes number one. And like the other two probably become like 22 to, you know, 21 minutes night guys who help a team but are not like, you know, like stars or whatever. So like I think that's, I think the fair expectations.

So it's probably somewhere between those two drafts. There's a couple of players that we were talking about early in the year that I expect. to really dominate our debate come this time of year. And that was Ryan Lynn and Xavier Vilnov. Lynn, I think we're still going to be talking plenty about. I mean, Scott, I know hasn't. Do you have him above Gustafson, Scott? I do.

Right. So Scott would have him closer to that top cluster. But Vilnav, Corey, has kind of fallen out of the conversation here. Where did Vilnov slip out of this? And where are you at with Lynn at this point? I mean, you guys remember me talking to you about nine months ago. I was like a villain of super fan coming into this season. This was such a hard evaluation for me.

And such a, I was so reluctant to get him to where I ended on him. Because I wanted to love him. Like, because he's, I would say after McKenna and Stenberg, he's probably the most purely offensively talented player in this class.

Does that offend anybody here? Not at all. Yeah. Like his skating, his skill, his offensive hockey sense. Like he's like, like I see people online comparing him to Lane Hudson.

I'm like, yeah, that doesn't, like, I see where you're going with that, like, the way he dances on the blue line and makes, and, like, I don't think he sees the ice like Lane does. I don't think he can hit the scene passes and, like, like, he does a little bit more individualistic, but I understand that it's, like, I think to me it comes down to the defending and the compete, like, he's got some significant defensive issues. Like, he really struggles to make stops at the QMJL level. He really doesn't ever, I think that when we saw him at the CHL, the CHL, he's really doesn't ever, I think that when we saw him at the CHL, the CHL, NTDP series. That's like one of the first times I've actually seen him play the body all season. Like in the queue, he just doesn't do that. Like, there's, like, I think there's going to be like some major concerns on how he projected the NHL level. But what I was thinking about with Villeneuve and Lynn and maybe even Villeneuve and Tommy Blyle to an extent was, you know, coming out of their draft seasons, we thought, we saw Seamus Casey and Lane Hudson on the NTDP. Yeah. And I don't know where you guys ended with them, but I think I had Lane like in the 20s and Casey like around the 30s or the 40s kind of thing.

But it's like kind of like, well, one of these two are probably going to play. I don't know which one. Obviously, you didn't know that one was going to become a superstar, but like, but, you know, you thought like there's some risks here. And that's probably how it's going to be with Villeneuve and Blile in Moncton. I probably think like one of those two are going to play. You could lump in Lynn with them. And I think Lynn's the likeliest to play because I think he defends the hardest.

And like he's got, there's more to his game. That's kind of how I feel like with Villeneuve, like, if he just played a little harder, man, he'd be like top 20. 20 on my list. But like his compete, his physicality, especially as like, this scrawny 5-11 defenseman, like, it's a significant concern for me. I have had people use Seamus, like I've had people in the queue use Seamus Casey for Tommy Blile in terms of just a parallel.

I was actually surprised when you had Blile as a below average skating because a skater because when I was flipping through. Are you serious? Because I think Blile is a phenomenal skater. Well, that was a typo. That's not how I feel. So, okay. I was like, that's like the hallmark of his game.

Thank you for point that out to me on this podcast kind of thing. Oh, sorry. Oh, well, yeah, that's, so that's, yeah, that'll need to be, it'll be fixed. But the thing about, the other thing I'll say about Villanoo, too, is like, I actually thought earlier in the year he played more aggressive. I thought that there was more. Damn, and that showed up a little bit more in that CHL NTP series. So that was definitely a big one for, you know, where he showed a little bit more snarl compared to what you would normally see for him do. But yes, I would agree, like he missed a chunk of the season with injury, comes back and, you know, it was very up and down.

I mean, like, that whole Blaineville team was up and down and they had had a lot of injury issues. over the course of the season. I thought he was going to have 100 points this season. I did too. I thought he was going to tear up that league and he just didn't. He had a good year, but he basically, like, it was below expectations. Yeah, and the thing is, is when you take a step back from the high expectations that you set, you know, it's like the same, we'll have, you know, I don't know if we'll ever get around to it,

but like Ryan Robreck is a guy who, it's hard to produce less than your draft year than you normally would and have positive results long term. So I think that that's the other thing that's tough. But Blile is a really interesting one because he had the season that, like, to me that I was expecting Villeneuve to have and was far better for the larger chunk of the season. And on top of that has been amazing in the playoffs. I can't believe he's going back to the Q next year. like he's like is he well that he apparently is but like i don't know like i feel like there's

got to be a better way there's got to be a better place for him to play like then going back there again like after how good he was but maybe the same he would villain maybe he has 60 points next year which we're all like tearing him apart like all right uh two more names that i want to get to you in this class uh cori i'm going to give you adam goliar and then scott why don't you take William Hawkinson, Cor, you go first with Gollier. Officially named the best defenseman the U-18s, although

I wonder if there was a little home country bias there. But he was really good there. Like, you know, six one right shot, skates well, moves the puck well, competes well. You know, this is a guy now

who's, you know, was a world junior player for Slovakia, was good versus men in Slovakia this past season. Just checks a lot of boxes. Like he's a little boring in some ways,

but like Oliver Bonk was a little boring too in some ways. I think there's some, you can maybe connect the dots a little bit there in terms of how they are as pro prospects, just like steady, dependable, two-way, not really physical, but he works. And I think coaches will trust him. And I think there's a spot for him in the NHL, even though I don't know if he's going to be like this massive offensive producer. I just think there's, every time I watch him, he plays well. Is he a star? No, but he's a good player. And I think he's going to be, have a career in the NHL. Scott, how about Hawkinson?

Hawkinson's an interesting one because he's 6-4 and 200 plus pounds and he's played a lot of pro hockey at an early age. He's a late birthday in this draft class, which helps in terms of making that jump to the pro level a little bit earlier and that size piece of the puzzle that he already has. It was a tough go for him. He started the year sort of splitting time between the SHL and the J20 and then he finished the year in Al-Svanskin before coming back to the SHL for the playoffs. in the Al-Sfenskin portion of that season, there were some tough nights. The production sort of came a little bit more, which I think people were hoping to see, but there were some tough nights defensively, and he just didn't look himself and didn't play well. His stock has trended down in the second half.

I think heading into the world juniors, where he also didn't play a prominent role for Sweden, heading into the world juniors, he was viewed as the first round pick in this draft class, and I think that's now not necessarily a sure thing. I think he still probably goes there because of the size, but Big Kid moves fairly well. The competitiveness and the physicality are a little bit more inconsistent than Scouts would like it to be. Like he has high PIM totals and you look at his profile and you think,

oh, this kid's probably mean. And I don't think that's really what he is. That's not a huge part of his identity. But he's competitive enough. He's physical enough. He's solid defensively. I don't think there's going to be a lot of offense there, but he projects to play in the league with his athletic profile.

His offensive profile is interesting. I agree with you. I don't think he's super smart. I don't think he's a puck play guy. But if you look at his underage numbers, he did point in the J20 level. And when he went down there for a few games this year, he pointed as well.

So I think there's inconsistencies in his game, but it's a really intriguing profile and track record. And if you look at making Sweden's World Junior team, And then there wasn't a bad war junior team. They won gold medal. Like, you look at the track record of defensemen who make that team. Like, they're all like top 15 picks. Like, it's like there's like schmucks don't make that team as a draft eligible.

So like it's, so it's, I'll be really fascinated to see how his career goes. Any names that I didn't bring up, Chris, to Scott and Corey there that you feel belong in the first round of this class? Or did we kind of, I mean, we, I think we'll include Blyle and Vilnav that we talked about them. But any other names besides them. Yeah. Yeah. No, I don't, nobody that really stands out, you know, specifically to me that we didn't bring up. But, yeah, I mean, I think that this, this only further proves that I think that there's the strength of the class is on the blue line.

There's a lot. The thing that I think is great about this class is the variety that you can get out of it. You know, the different players, the different kinds of guys that can kind of fit into a bunch of different things, which is to say, I also don't think that we see like, like, there's not a lot of excitement among the forwards as you get further and further down the board. So I think that, you know, we'll probably see a pretty steady chunk of defensemen go in the first round. And we probably cover, you know, the most likely guys. And, you know, could anybody else sneak in there. I'm not, you know, I'm sure there could be a one or two. I do think it's notable. We didn't mention Uho Piperainen, who coming out of Hulinko last summer

was viewed as like a lock first rounder. And Corey mentioned a couple of 50. He could still go. He could still go in the first round, but Corey mentioned a couple of the Diaz Vanilla. and I'm not sure there is a more vanilla player in this class than you hope Pip Pryan, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. But yeah. I know Scott Squirm when I mentioned Yakupov earlier, but in the Yakupov draft, we had a winger go one and then I think eight of the top ten picks in that defense in that class were defensiveman just as an FYI.

Be careful, Corp. People are going to start thinking you think McKenna is Yakopov, and you're going to get it with them. I'm actually starting that. I'm starting that. No, but I will say, I will. say I would challenge Scott's It's also one of the worst drafts in NHL history. Yeah, yeah.

I thought when I saw Yakopov that year, I thought he was like a monster. Like he was so dominant in Sarnia, those two years he was there. Like he, there was no way he was going to miss. And then obviously, you know, you know, you missed. It happens. Yep. He missed. Miss pretty big.

Yeah, there was a whole lot of missing in that class. All right. Let's take a break right there. We're going to come back. We haven't done a mailbag, I feel like, in months. So we've got a few in there, and it'd be excited to get your thoughts off. I'll be right back. All right, we are back, and we've got a mailbag, round of mailbag questions here.

Scott, we're going to start with this one from Liam Gutman. Will teams be targeting both Ruck Twins in this draft? And this is parts from me. Is there anyone that could actually pull that off? It seems like they're both kind of going to go late first. Maybe a team that has some bonus picks. I think one of them almost certainly goes second. I think there's a chance both go second.

I've got a future coming out on the rucks at the athletic in the next couple of weeks here. And I have talked to them and some people around them about this. They have not been shy to tell teams that it is really what they want. Like they haven't, there's something too modesty in these interviews, but the way they thought about it was we're not going to lie and pretend like us going to a different organization is what we want. If it goes that way, they will go their separate ways. and these aren't kids who are going to put up a stink or try to force their way back together, that kind of a thing.

But I think it's going to be a big part of the combine process for them. They're going to be pretty upfront with teams that they want to make it happen. I know that college teams are all over them and that they're likely going to do visits here now that medicine hats out of the WHL playoffs. So they're going to continue going to the college route together. I know that they haven't closed the book on Medicine Hat either. Return to Medicine Hat is very much potential. in the cards for them. Medicine Hat still actually has some really good young players that they

could potentially reload around next year. But it's, I think it's, I think there's a real chance that it happens and that a team makes it happen for them. And I don't think that's necessarily a bad move by that team or that team trying to pick through, if whichever team considers that, I don't think it's necessarily a, we are, we're doing these kids a favor. Like, there are plenty of teams. The Vancouver Canucks have the 30 have a late first round pick and the 33rd overall pick. Like there are, when I was looking at my mock draft, I think there's four or five teams with a late first and an early second. Like it's very possible that someone makes that happen for them. So I really don't think it's out of the question that they end up together.

All right. Next one is from Carl Milock. I'm actually going to take this one. How should Detroit handle its goalie prospect situation? Someone has to get moved, right? That's certainly the way that people in the game think this is headed, I think specifically with Sebastian. in Kosa, who has not played in any of their four postseason games as far. Michael Postava come in, I don't want to say out of nowhere. He won the Czech League championship last year, but for an undrafted player that was signed to have now fully taken over the net, he's got great numbers. He was like 40 minutes of game time this regular season from being eligible for and

thus winning the save percentage and goals against titles. He's emerged. I do have some questions, Chris, I know you've probably been watching this series because of the flow hockey ties here. like postava has been excellent in the series i do still wonder like he's he's on the smaller side he's a great athlete and it's working for him right now my only question is like is this a guy who is at the level of koza or augustine uh to be kind of having that conversation or is that are we overreacting to sample here yeah i feel i feel it's partially a little bit of an overreaction to sample but i

think you also have to see you know we we can see we have eyes you know like he is playing outstanding. I think that there's definitely a correlation to success in the HL and that translating. I think we've seen guys obviously different size profiles and other things like that, like Devin Kooley, who's excelled RDC Loves last year for Abbott's had up and down results in the NHL. But, you know, I think that what is striking to me is, you know, COSA has been the good soldier for all this time. And they come down to the biggest time and he loses his job. I mean, that's, it's curtains.

I mean, that's it. Like, I don't know how you come back from that. I don't know how you as an organization, you know, come back from that as all that investment in that development. And your only hope now, you know, I mean, like, Koso was an HL All-Star this. year. Last two years, consecutive HL All-Star. Yeah, I mean, you know, and the thing

is, is that you have to continue, like, if you can get better, this is pro hockey, if you can get better, you get better. And Postama has been the guy that's been better, and he gives them a chance to win the Calder Cup. They're, you know, probably now the favorite to win the Calder Cup,

given their status as the team with the best record remaining and how they've played throughout the year. So they're in a real pickle here. I would say, like, in terms of pure upside, I still view Augustine and COSA as the better upside goalies. But now you've, I think any whatever plan there was with COSA now is over. I mean, I think that's just what it is.

I tend to agree. My only question is like, so I view like the optimist. If you're an optimist on Postov, I think you're hoping that he's Alex Lyon or Jet Greaves and those are like good NHL goalies. Is that enough to kind of give. up on the first round pick on one hand. On the other hand, do you really have a choice after everything that's happened? And they got to get better.

You have all these goalie prospects. Like trading one is probably the best path to getting better. Yeah. He's going to hit waivers this next fall too. He has to be on someone's NHL roster next year. Yes, exactly. So, you know, and I think, I think, you know, unfortunately, it seems like the Detroit Red Wings just developed a player for somebody else.

And I do think they're going to have to move on. I think he's going to have to move on. I think, you know, the succession plan, I think you give Augustine almost the entire year and the A next year, you get, you get him on. He's your guy. You know, I think like, I thought he was their guy two years ago. You know, it's just the way that it is. And it's unfortunate, you know, like, because like I give Sebastian all the credit in the world, ECHL to AHL, fighting his time, waiting, waiting, waiting, getting better, doing, doing, all the things you had to do. But again, it's that nature of pro hockey. If there is someone better, we will take someone better. And that's what's happened right now.

All right. Next one's for Corey. Jeff Grebel wants to know when teams consistently find players who outperform their draft position. He's referencing Dallas, Tampa, Carolina. How much of that do you attribute to great scouting and how much do you attribute to development, environment, and kind of the fit? Are there teams that are just better at

maximizing talent or are these teams better at finding talent? Can I pick door number three? Yes. I think they're just the luckiest teams. Like there is no, there is, I have never seen an organization show repeatable skill in this area. You know, I love Dallas's drafts. I mean, obviously I was, you know, love White Johnston.

Love you love Jason Robertson and Rupert Hintz. Like last, their farm system's terrible right now. Like there's nothing there at the moment. I don't know. Like, sure about that? Like, what else is, what, what, what is there that you love? love so much. I mean, I don't think there are stars there, but I think there's a lot of

NHL players there. A lot of NHL players? A lot of NHL in Dallas's system? I don't see it. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I mean, like, and it's also, it's also, they've also been one of the best teams in terms of signing undrafted free agents lately and developing them at the HAL level.

Like, I actually do think. I didn't think Hercuanian was ever going to be close to what he was. So, yeah, that's, that's fair. Yeah. I mean, like, like, Fritzkovian, there's another Hritzcovian now. You know, there's a number of guys that I think will matriculate to their NHL roster from the Texas stars this year. But, yeah, but I mean, like, I agree. Like, I think, like, in general, you're going to have stretches where you've, you've had good stretches of drafting.

But I do think there are some teams that have better development setups than others. I think Dallas is one of them. You have, like, some of the best draft classes all the time. You have, like, the Dallas 2017 draft. And you go out to the Montreal draft where they got Sue Ben, Patrick. Ready and McDonough all in the same draft. And that was like one of the greatest draft classes of all time. And then for pretty much 10 years after that, they couldn't find anything in the draft.

Right. Like their first round was just completely awful after that. So I think it's, I think despite how we argue, I'm a Carroll's guy. I'm a Smith guy. I'm a McKenna guy. Whatever kind of thing. None of us are geniuses. We all kind of know who the good players are.

We have them all roughly in the same order minus some minor deviations. nobody's smarter than anybody else. This is not some sort of advanced science. It's watching hockey players. One thing to Corey's point. Montreal is one of the teams mentioned. They've had some real fines there. The biggest, of course, is Lane Hudson, right?

But if Montreal really knew Lane Hudson was going to be this, they're not taking Philip Mishar and Owen back ahead of him, right? Like, that's part of this for sure. They took Mishar in the first round. First round. And he was small too. What's going on over there? One of the worst picks of that draft in hindsight.

Yeah, and yeah, it's just, no, it's, it's funny. But to Corey's point, like, if there was anybody that was smarter than anybody else, to be the richest person in the NHL, like, like, like clearly, repeatedly smarter, there are some really great scouts. There are some really great player development people. There are, you know, there are people that are definitely above average, but I don't think that there's tons of separation when you're doing predictions, essentially. Yeah.

All right, Chris, this one's for you. It's from Ares. How would you rate Albert Smith's decision-making or? hockey IQ. We hear about his tool, speed athleticism, but I wonder if the hockey IQ is present as well in a way that can translate to him getting better. What's his ceiling? Yeah. So I think he's, I think he has, has it in the, in the basic sense of he knows what plays to make, when to make them, and I think he executes them adequately. Like, I wouldn't say it's like a, a, a, a, a, a standout tool for him, but he is absolutely a player that play, I think he has a mature decision,

and processing, you know, kind of skill in that he kind of takes a lot. He doesn't overdo it. I don't think there's any creativity there, like in terms of, you know, is he going to make these, you know, outstanding plays and reads that are going to take you, you know, surprise you. I don't think that that's it. I don't think that he's overtly predictable or anything like that either. But, you know, I just think that there's, it's adequate at worst, you know, like, I think that's like, but the thing is, is this is the guy that has played at the Olympics.

He's going to play at the world championships. He's played in high level playoffs. Like, I think he thinks the game like a pro already. And, you know, more it's just going to be adjusting each time he goes to a different place, adjusting to the pace, adjusting to the pressure, those things. And I don't really have much concern about him processing the game at an NHL speed. So to me, it's not a standout trait. It's not a detrimental trait.

it's just, you know, at worst, adequate. So, you know, I think the, when you combine that with the athleticism that he has showcased, I think that's a good enough thing, you know, good enough for him to be a higher, a higher end, you know, defenseman, a guy that could be at a top four playing a lot of minutes in a lot of different roles. I think, you know, he does everything pretty much at a pro level. I will close with this one, Corey, from Neil Beal Raymond. He says, for months, we've talked about how underwhelming

this NDP team was. That's true. We have talked about that. Now all of a sudden, Corey has two in his top 12. That's Wyatt Cullen and Casey Mutron. He says, what's changed in their projection, especially Mutron? And you had Mutron going 21 in your last mock, but you have them, I think, ranked, what, 12 on your latest ranking? Yeah, I think their international tournaments were good. Like the February tournament, the NTP played well. I thought Mutron and Colin both looked very good in February. They both looked very good in April. I think with Colin, we're talking about the significant physical growth. Just the one of the, youngest players of the draft, how much he's grown as a player, the dynamic traits there.

With Nutrin, I see a guy who's, you know, plays all situations, top power play on the team, kills penalties, captain, highly physical, 6-3 skates well. I think the offense and the production there is a question. I think it's a question for a lot of people. If I look at the body of work there, strong underage numbers, maybe the U18 team was an underage, a guy who still was, I think, one of the leading scores on an underwhelming, mind team this year. I think there's just a lot to like.

And I think there's a, like, I look at him versus Oscar Hemming. I don't see a massive difference in how they play in the tool kits. He'll be a good one for our debates later because I, I see a big gap between Mutron and Hemming. And I actually think Mutron and Rider

Callie, who I think is in like the 40s on Corey's list, are closer for me than I would have Mutron with the Hemming types. Well, I will look forward. to hearing that debate as we go on. That is going to do it for us today. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series.

Remember, you can catch more of Chris over at Flow Hockey and on his podcast called up. Be back with you soon.