The Athletic Hockey Show - Sharks top 2025 NHL prospect pool rankings

Episode Date: February 7, 2025

On a jam-packed Prospect Series episode, Max, Scott, and Corey break down Scott’s 2025 NHL prospect pool rankings, discuss Corey’s latest NHL Draft top prospects ranking with Caleb Desnoyers making a big jump, and answer some great questions in the mailbag to close the show.Hosts: Max Bultman and Corey PronmanWith: Scott WheelerExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Scott Wheeler for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Corey Promin's going to join us a little bit later. But Scott, I wanted to start with a series of articles you've had that finally wrapped up this morning. Your NHL Prospect Pool Rankings, massive undertaking that I would highly recommend to everybody out there go read it is a great way to get up to speed on prospects around the league. And it closed today with the number one team, the San Jose Sharks. And I know a lot of listeners out there are thinking, yeah, no, duh, they have Macklin Celebrini.

Of course, they're number one. But I think what's fascinating about this placement is McClabrini wasn't even eligible for this. In your rankings, he's a graduated prospect. The Sharks still check in at number one. And I guess the obvious question is, how do you arrive at that and how much of that strength is predicated on the big few prospects they have, Will Smith, Sam Dickinson, and Yeroslav Ascarov.

Well, certainly that's where it starts. You look around the league. There is no other team in the league, including the teams that are right around them in the ranking, who have a true, true premium prospect at all three positions other than the sharks. So you've got Will Smith as your sort of next in line top forward prospect. My top 100 drafted prospects ranking will be out next week at the Athletic, and Will Smith will rank in the top 10 of that as a forward prospect. Also in the top 10 of that is Sam Dickinson as a deep prospect.

And on the goalie list, the top 20 goalie list that comes out, you'll see Yaroslavas somewhere near the top of that list as well. So truly, when you look at the guys that have graduated, now that Matt Veemichkov and Lane Hudson and Logan Stankovin and Macklin-Colabrini and you go down the list, now that some of the big boys who were on the summer list immediately after the draft have graduated to the NHL, you start to look at the remaining prospects that are left around the league.

And you can probably only make a case for two, three, four forward prospects who are better than Will Smith and two, three, four D prospects who are better prospects than Sam Dickinson. There is a very strong case to be made that Errolsla Bascarob is the top goalie prospect in the sport. So it starts there, but that's not all that the sharks have coming. And I think that's a testament to the job they've done very quickly through this reboot. We forget that it was only a couple of years ago that Eric Carlson and Brent Burns were on their roster, right? So the management team switched over.

There were a couple of amateur scouts that switched over. And ever since then, in the last two or three drafts, it's been a real priority for them to hit the rebuild button. And I think they've done a really good job in a quick amount of time to turn around their pool. This is without considering Shakir Mukmadulin, who turned 23 and aged out of this year's ranking. Henry Thrun, who's played in the NHL for them and turned 23 this year and aged out of this year's ranking. They still have a very deep pool. Quentin Mustie, I think, has a chance. We've talked a lot about Quinton on this show over the years, but Quentin, I still think, has a chance to be a second-line winger in the NHL.

Luca Cagnoni had a historic season in the W.HL last year, the most productive season by a W.HL defenseman in 30 years in the W.H.L. last year, more productive than Olin Zellwager and Josh Morrissey and Shea Theodore. You go down the list. Kagnoni almost made the sharks out of camp this year and has been excellent for the Barakuta, who are a much better team this year after struggling the last couple of years. Kagnoni's been a big part of their blue line. Philip Bistet, people will remember from the world juniors as a pillar of the middle

Delais for the Swedes. Igor Cherney-Shav is off to an excellent start in Saginaw after missing the start of this season due to injury. He's been back the last couple of weeks here. And I was exchanging texts with Chris Lazary and Dave Drinkle, their head coach and general manager in Saginaw. And he's been unbelievable. I believe he's got four points through his first two games, three goals.

He's making plays. He looks powerful. And then you go right down the list. Wio Saline Walanias, Casper Halton, and who we've seen at the World Juniors and who led the O HL and Powerp. play goals last year and has debatably the hardest one-timer outside of the NHL in terms of prospects. And then right down to the very bottom of their list in the teens where you really start to see with most teams a big drop-off in talent. You've got guys like Ethan Cardwell, Cardwell,

and Danil Gushchin and Jack Thompson, guys who've played 10, 15, 20 NHL games this year and our top players in the HL. So real depth throughout for the sharks, but the needle movers are at the top. If Sam Dickinson can become a number two defenseman for them, and if Will Smith can become a 70-point guy behind McClintilab-Brini is a 90-to-100-point guy long-term, and Yeroslav Ascarov can become their starter, then suddenly everything starts to fall into place really nicely for what they're building in San Jose. I think my question on their system is, I guess it does kind of go back to the blue line because Dickinson has elevated certainly this year and was a great prospect through last year. but I entered this season thinking, hey, the sharks really could use Matthew Schaefer in this draft. He was kind of the clear-cut D, and they seen, you know, maybe them in Anaheim, like the two teams that would be in the mix for number one that really, really needed Schaefer. Now it might be everyone watched Schaefer. He's had that good of a year.

Is it still kind of in that spot for San Jose where, man, you're really hoping to come out of this with Schaefer? Or obviously, I mean, there's so many good forwards at the top, too. But I guess how bad does San Jose need that other D with Dickinson, or is that alleviated now? No, I still think Schaefer would be sort of top of their list. Like if I'm building out their list, Schaefer is the guy that I would most covet, not just because I think he's the best prospect in this draft, but because he would really fit in line with what they need in their pool more than what they need at forward. Now, certainly would you love to get a premium winger like Porter Martone to play alongside a Macklin-Sellbrini or alongside a Will Smith moving forward here? Absolutely. It's a win-win if you're the San Jose Sharks. But the idea of Dickinson's,

in and Schaefer as your two, two-way high-end skaters, both of them, sort of studs of the future, completely changes the dynamic. And I'll do respect to Cagnoni, who I talked about, and Shakir Mukmadulin, who I talked about, and Henry Fren, who I talked about. But if you're slotting those guys into an NHL roster long term and it's contending roster in the NHL, those guys are four, five, sixes, sevens, maybe even in some cases on your depth chart. So after Sam, they do still need that premium guy. You even look at their current NHL roster. They're playing Ferraro and they're playing Timothy Williagrin and they're playing guys higher and bigger minutes than they would play virtually anywhere else in the league. So I think the blue line is the biggest area of need for them, especially after acquiring Yeroslav Ascarov.

And Schaefer would be a perfect sort of dream outcome for them, I think. There's no chance we're going to be able to get to the nitty gritty on all of the work that you put into these, right? Each of these stories could probably be its own podcast. And maybe we should look into that in the future now that I say that. But I want to know, within the stories, you kind of tier the prospect. When you go through them and you go, here's the tiers, I would love to see the tiers on the teams. Where are kind of the lines of demarcation, at least in the top half of this thing? Yeah, there were two tiers right at the top for me.

There was a clear cut top five. And then there was sort of a six to 12 tier. But typically the six to 12 tier has another sort of delineation somewhere in it. This year, that didn't really happen. I actually didn't even like that I had. Utah and Nashville and some of the teams that were six, seven felt to me more in years past, like they would be 9, 10, 11, 12 pools. And as a result, there were fan bases for the teams that ranked 1011, 12 who said, hey, look, I think ours is just as strong as number six and,

or number seven. And frankly, they had a case. So I didn't really get excited about the groups in, in the six to 12 range. There are some good, very good players in there, some pools that have six or seven guys deep. But really, once you started to get to, to the double digits deep in terms of legit NHL prospects was the top five of this year. So I debated all of San Jose, Minnesota, and Montreal, who were the top three. I debated them in any order you could come up with. And then right behind them, I felt that Chicago and Detroit, though they were a clear four, or five for me, were a really, really strong four or five pool for me. So those five, I think, if you're a fan of any of those five teams, you're feeling pretty good about the future. And Minnesota, obviously,

in that group of five is pretty unique as an established playoff team. One of the fan bases I thought about as these were coming out was Buffalo, because it's, nothing's gone right in Buffalo this season. And there's a lot of, there's going to be a lot of people looking for hope in Buffalo right now, as it's been the case for the last several years. Their pool doesn't come in as high as I'm used to seeing it. It's a number 11, which like you said, there's a cluster there, right? You probably could have had them six or seven.

And I'm sure it doesn't help them that Zach Benson's, you know, a clear NHL or maybe would have been their best prospect, doesn't count. so to speak. How hopeful should Buffalo fans be? I mean, you got any hope for him, I guess is what I'm asking? Yeah, I think there's reason to be hopeful. It's still a strong group. The disappointing part, and they have been, as you know,

sort of top three, four, five the last few years. And the drop this year is attributed to a couple of things. It's one, Zach Benson no longer being considered a prospect. I was actually generous, I think, to include him last year when he was playing full-time. in the NHL, which I also did with Will Smith this year. Obviously, Will hasn't played anywhere but the NHL this year, but I still decided to include him. Did the same with Connor Geeky and Murat Khrush Nidinov and a couple of others who were in the NHL at the moment in this year's countdown as well. But it hurt. It hurt them to lose Benson and it hurt them to trade Matt Savoy.

Matt was trending to be just a good prospect rather than a great prospect, but is still a good prospect and has immediately become the Edmonton Oilers' best prospect and has become one of their best players with their HL team. So that didn't help. And then Consta Heleneas has just been okay this year as well. So Yuri Kulich has obviously really taken a step. Yuri Kulich is actually centering their top line at the moment and has been excellent of late in the NHL.

And Yuri was included. But Heleneas not having a great year and albeit he's an 18 year old playing in the NHL and the youngest full-time player in the HAL this season. Heleneas not having a great year, trading Savoy, graduating Benson, was just a bit of a cocktail to move them down. Now, in saying that, Coolich is a legit NHL player already and is going to continue to grow into that role. I think Heleneus is still

going to be a top nine center in the NHL or a very, very good winger in the NHL. And then you go down the list, Noah Osslin, Isakrosane, Nikita Novakob, who I think is one of the more underrated deep prospects in the sport, Brody Zeamer, who was excellent, at the World Juniors, Maxime Sturback, who's been a staple of the world juniors the last few years and has been very good at MSU this year for the Spartans. There's still some good young players there. And then obviously Devin Levi, because he hasn't been able to establish himself in the

NHL, Devin Levi continues to be eligible. And I'm still a believer that Devin's going to be a decent NHL goalie. I guess on the other side of things from that coin, there's two teams. And Detroit maybe could give you a third, depending on how the back half goes, but there's two teams in the top 10 of the prospect rankings that look like pretty clear playoff teams right now. And that's Washington at number nine and Minnesota all the way up at number two. We could see, Scott, I mean, Ryan Leonard could make an impact in the playoffs for the capitals this year. I don't know if you think Z. Bouem will be ready.

Not out of the realm of possibility, I would think, right? I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for either of them. They're obviously trying to incorporate David Yerechuk, and they've got David Yerichick to worry about now as well. But I think Zeeb Boyam's potentially ready to be a better player. the NHL right now than David Eurocheck is. So if there's room on that blue line for David Yerichick, I don't know how there isn't room on that blue line for Zee.

Boy, now they're opposite handedness. There's all sorts of things that are going to go into play there. Denver could go in another deep run and that could impact how late in the process Ziv gets incorporated. But I think absolutely, despite the fact that those are playoff teams, I'm not sure those guys are just black aces who come in and sit in your press box. I think Ryan Leonard's ready to make an impact in the NHL. Now, is he a top six winger or is he a third line guy who just goes out and plays five on five?

Do you want to mess around with your power play to find a way to sort of layer him into the fold at that stage in a season? I think the answer is probably no. And he's probably just a five on five winger for you in the early stages. And you figure out where he fits into your hierarchy next year. But could Ryan Leonard come in and score a big goal or two goals in a seven game playoff series? Absolutely. I think he could score a couple of goals in a seven game playoff series and help them win around. So it's, that's exciting because it's pretty atypical, as you know, of college free agents.

Oftentimes college free agents are coming out. They're promised a cup of coffee in the NHL because they play on poor teams. We saw the exact same thing with Colin Graf of the San Jose Sharks, another one of their prospect, who was on the Sharks list. Those guys typically come in, they play their seven, eight games late in the season. And then if they're a playoff team, they typically black aces who don't play or they play very little. I don't think that's the case with either of William or Leonard. I think both those guys are ready to play regular minutes in the NHL and potentially have an impact. It's Minnesota that I think gets me really intrigued for them to be this high on the list.

And so much of it obviously comes back to can they keep Carill Caprize off in town, which I'm sure is priority number one, two, and three. But the timing of having a prospect pool this good, a team that's already in the playoffs, and you're going to create so much cap space, both with their cap raises that are now coming everywhere in the league, but also you're finally going to get out from the heavy years of the Paris A and Souter buyouts. Right as you're going to start to graduate all these good players on ELCs, and what can you do with the CAPS base remaining to augment? Big time. Full credit to Bill Guerin and his team for A, navigating the Souter, Parise situation,

finding a way to be competitive during that window, B, hanging on to their picks. It's easy when you're in that situation to try to get better and to leverage the picks in the prospects to do that. They have not done that. They've actually done the opposite. They went out and acquired David Girocheck. They drafted Zeev Boyum 12th overall. They've done all of this without drafting in the top 10. Zib Boym, not a top 10 pick. Danila Yorov, not a top 10 pick. Liam Ogren, not a top 10 pick. Ypres, Yolstet, not a top 10 pick. Now, Walsdet has had a difficult year, but outside of Walsett, Boyam, trending in the right direction, Danila Yorov, one of the best young players in the KHL the last two seasons. Liam Ogrin, playing in the NHL right now. Murakus Nidinov, playing in

the NHL right now. Charlie Stramel, even having a much better year at MSU after a transfer to play under Adam Nightingale, who was his former coach at the NTDP. Stramel has taken a step. Riley Hight has been one of the top players in the WHL the last couple of years. They've done a good job. There's not a lot coming on the blue line after William and Eurocheck. That's maybe the weakness of the pool, if you will, but you have William and Eurecheck and you have Brock Faber at the NHL level. And suddenly everything starts to sort of fit together really nicely for them. I think Ogren and Kus Nidina, despite the fact that they've played depth roles with the Wild, have a chance to at least be middle six guys in the NHL. And then maybe if a height hit or a Danila Yorov comes over and

pops like I think he might be capable of, suddenly you've got some more coming up front on top of Marco Rossi having a breakout year and playing to near a point per game. Now, Rossi's going to have to get paid this summer, which is a complicating factor, but they'll have the caps bait to be able to pay Marco Rossi if they want to. So a lot trending in the right direction. Walsdett's week year is sort of the outlier there. Walsett has really struggled this year. That team in Iowa, the last two years,

their blue line has really struggled in front of their goalies. Last year, Walsett managed to be great behind a bad blue line. This year, Walsett hasn't managed to play to that same level behind a leaky defense. So you do start to wonder at least a little bit about Walsett. And I get into that in his breakdown. and some of the things that maybe I hadn't seen prior that are starting to pop up for me when I watch him play. But I still think Walsstead has excellent. He's still a top goalie prospect and has a pretty pristine track record prior to this year. So a lot to like about what's coming for the wild.

And I wonder even whether they start to parlay some of that over the next couple of years to try to upgrade their NHL roster as well. And then real quick, I just want to look ahead to your top 100 drafted prospects ranking. I don't want to ask you to spoil anything here. but you obviously, in putting these together, there's a dovetail there. I mean, what do you think is going to surprise people when that list comes out? Well, the beauty of the, I do the list twice a year, once in the summer, immediately after the draft, and once in the winter. And the beauty of the winter list is that it's hard.

It's things really swat nicely in the summer because you've got the Macklin Celebrinis and the Connor Badaards and the Matt Bay Michecoves. And you don't really have to think long and hard about one, two, three, four, five on some of those summer lists. When it comes time for the winter list, and a lot of those guys have then immediately graduated out of their draft class and into the NHL like Sellebrini did, and obviously Michikov from the draft class before, then you actually have to think long and hard about what the top 10 looks like in this top 100. So this year, I mean, naturally, the forwards in that group are some of the names we've already talked about. It's Ivan Demadov. It's Will Smith.

It's Ryan Leonard. It's Gabe Perot. It's Beckett Seneca. Tejig Ginla, Kaden Lindstrom. Those are the top forward prospects in the sport nowadays. And Winstrom's obviously complicated by the health piece of the puzzle. And then on defense, there's a really exciting group outside the league right now. You've got Steve William, who we've talked about. You've got Zane Perak. You've got Archim Lipschunov, who is having a better year, I think, than people realize in Rockford and is playing 25 minutes a night in the H.L.

As a teenager, so there's, you've got Sam Dickinson, who we've already touched on. So sorting out those guys in the order that I wanted to play. them in. That was the big challenge. In the winter list, there's an actual debate over who the best prospect in the sport is. Let's take a quick break right there. We'll be right back with Corey Promin to talk about the 2025 draft. All right, we are back now with Corey Promin to discuss his 2025 mid-season NHL draft list. And Corey, the big riser on this version of the list is Caleb Denoye, the big center out of Moncton and the QMJHL, all the way up at number four for you. He's in that top five, right in between Porter Martone and Michael Mesa.

Obviously, that's big territory. What did he do to put himself in this range by mid-season? He's been, in my opinion, the best player on the best team in the QMJHL, which hasn't always been the biggest endorsement of Q prospects over the last decade. But I think it's just the way in which he has dominated that league makes him look like a really good NHL prospect. I think he has every trait you want. He's a nearly six-foot center. He skates very well.

I think he has really good skill. He's very intelligent. He competes at a high level. He's quite physical. He's got great two-way details. There's just a lot there to like. And I think the big criticism of a Dinoa coming into the year was offense. It's like everyone knew this player had skill, but is it going to be high-end skill,

or is it going to be a power play NHL skill? Or is it just good, you know, 40-50 point type of skill? And, you know, you look at some of the centers, the premier centers that have come out at the Cuban recent years production wise, he's right where Pierre-Luc Dubois was in his draft season scoring-wise. He's right where Nico Heeshire was in his draft season scoring-wise. While

being like those players and having the two-way ability, the physicality, the strong skating ability, there's a lot in this player to like. And when he's gone out of the queue, when he's played at the Honka Gretzky, for example, or the CHL NTDP Ceres, I thought he's played

very well. So that gives you some confidence that he can get it done outside of the Q level. I just think there's a lot of pause about this player, you know, big center, two-way, a lot of offense. I mean, this is going to be a guy that NHL teams are going to be very excited about, even if he may lack some of the dynamic elements that say James Hagan's has with his skill or that Michael Misa might have with his skating. Ironically enough, the only place that Caleb Dainway hasn't played at a very, very high level was at last year's U-18 Worlds where he was playing under his future head coach in Moncton

in Gardner McDougal. They struggled at that tournament to sort of get him onto the ice. His role over the course of, now he was an underager, but his role over the course of the tournament shrunk. And then he goes to join Gardner McDougal

in the fall. And he's just been, as Corey said, one of the very best players, not just in the QMJL, but in junior hockey. It's been extremely productive as all of the tools that teams look for.

And there's been a constant sort of chatter amongst teams over the last month or two here, really going back to Christmas or even a little bit before Christmas about Caleb maybe fitting into that, that top four group that everybody had felt was such a consensus group in the fall.

All right, Corey, we talked about that of that group of the top five there that DENWIA is now in. But I should say, there is now a player in a tier of his own, and that's Matthew Schaefer at the very top. Do you see an obvious challenger here? Do you see someone emerging from that pack to push Schaefer for number one, or is this his to lose at this point? Yeah, always the top part of doing these lists is it's a moment in time.

and especially when you're publishing them in the middle of the season, you get a whole lot more data as time goes on. I think Michael Mesa, for example, was been really, really good since I published that list. And I think, you know, you're kind of still, you know, James Hagen's has been good. I wouldn't say he's been great in recent weeks since the world juniors. Higgins is two on my list and Mesa is three.

And I still have it that way as at this very second. But if I'm being perfectly honest, And I think of one player who I think could lap Schaefer, it probably would be Mesa. If he just keeps playing the way he is playing and potentially carry Saginaw on some sort of legitimate playoff run, I don't think they're going to win their conference by any means, but maybe they could potentially upset one of the major favorites in the West. And he just has an electric playoff run. You know, I could see him, you know, being the Stenderman with all that skill in the skating,

that he has, I think he is a candidate that I could see, could potentially pass Schaefer, but I think at the moment, just with the data we currently have, I think Schaefer just so dynamic and as a big defenseman with just how fast he is, how intelligent and competitive he is. I think I would be hard-pressed to have anyone really in the conversation with him at this current second, but we still got a lot of hockey left to play. given the fact that Schaefer missed the start of the season with Mono and is now out until potentially near the end of the season just before the playoffs with an injury, credit to him for the way that he did play in a very, very short amount of time to sell

NHL scouts. Now, he had the backing of excellent performances prior with Hockey Canada, where he'd been the best player on the ice at multiple Hockey Canada events and a very good player on that U18 Blue Line, which was sort of a blue line by committee last spring in Finland as well as an underager. But the fact that we're even talking about Schaefer in a potentially in a league of his own or a tier of his own at this point in the season, given how little he has actually played in his draft year is a testament to the talent of the player. I'm curious, Corey, because the gap between Schaefer and the next

defenseman on your list is wide. I think it's Kishon at H.S.N. H.S.N. at number nine for you and Jackson Smith shortly after him at number 11, but that's multiple tiers in between Schaefer and the next best D. What's going to decide kind of that race for the next highest D? And this may be how you have them ranked, but where do you see these guys going? It, I think it's going to be, I think a draft class that quite frankly lacks some sex appeal and lacks some serious debates in the, in the top five or top 10 that I think there's going to be debates, but I don't know whether they're the most interesting debates, like say the Shane Wrights, Slavkovsky type of debates or Van Tilly versus Leo Carlson type of debates. I think who the second best D is in a

class is at least somewhat of an interesting debate because I think you could talk to a bunch of scouts to get a bunch of different answers. H.S.N. is one of the candidates. Jackson Smith and Tri-Cities are the Canada. Raden-Mirka in Seattle is another candidate. Logan Hensler, Wisconsin would be another candidate. So I think it really depends on just, you know, your preferences. I think some of those guys are close enough that just depending on which way you lean, it can go a different way. I lean to H-Sin just, I think he, among all the candidates that I've seen right now, I think is the most unique player when you are a six one and a half defenseman like he is,

who skates really well, and it's just super physical and competitive. That's already interesting. I think his critics at times have pointed to maybe his hockey sense. Is there enough offense in this player? But as we stand right now, I mean, he's going to be, he's on pace on like at like, 25, 30 goals this year in the OHL this season. I'm not saying he's a power play guy at the next level. I don't think he's a power play guy at the next level. But I think he showed he can make plays in the offensive zone. I think there's a lot there to like. I could see Smith and Merdka pass him when it's all said and done for me,

especially since I think both will go to the U18 worlds and play big, big roles on their teams, and AHSN's going to be in the OHA playoff. So we'll see how all their post seasons go. But I think all those guys are close enough to where it can go in a couple different directions. I've heard the Logan Hensler stuff about in that range. I know some scouts who think he's the second or third best defenseman in the draft. I can't get there from what I've seen, but I know obviously he's a good player.

Big, can skate, can move pox, you know, good international history. But that is going to be one of the big debates going forward is who is the second best defenseman. Who would it be for you, Scott? Yeah, my list is out next week and it'll be my second. defensemen will be reading Merck on my upcoming list. So speaks to the conversation that Corey's having, though. I think Merca's like 20th on his list, but obviously Corey just mentioned that he could be in that conversation by the end of it. I've been very, very, very, very impressed by Merca. Ever since he landed in Seattle, he's been outstanding six foot six defensemen who can really

skate, has a ton of poise. And surprising skill on the puck has made a bunch of really, really high-end plays for that Thunderbirds team and that Thunderbirds team is rebuilding. And when I say rebuilding, I mean, they are a bottom of the league team that has hit a hard reset button over the last couple of years. So the production there, given the team that he plays on and how impactful he's been on the smaller ice surface right away for a big man who can really skate, I'm very excited about Murka. But we're not talking about even Murka or Aitchison or Smith or you name it, Hensler, we're not talking about those guys the way that we talked about, Artim Lepshunov, or Zyb Boyam, or Zane Perich, or Sam Dickinson, or Carter Yakumchuk, or even Anton Soliov last year. So there isn't that

next premium guy after Schaefer, or at least there hasn't emerged a clear-cut next premium guy after Schaefer quite yet. Yeah, like my second rank D, which as HSA-9, I'd have him behind all of those top 7D from last year, as would currently stand up. And not like, significantly behind. I think you could have some debates between him and the seventh betty, but it's not like he would, yeah, like, be the second or third or fourth defense

in the last year's draft for me. Well, the guy he's most similar to in last year's draft might be Stee and Solberg, right? Yeah, I think that's fair. And that's where Stolberg's slotted among those guys. Yeah, I think it's possible that H.S. can go closer to the teens, too. I might be a little bit higher on him in the industry, although I think he's going to go in the teens when it's all said

and done. A few drafts ago, 2022, I got really used to talking about the Yeargarten Kids, and Meaning Jonathan Lekkeramaki, Noah O'Sland, and Liam Ogren. We're doing Yeargarten Kids 2.0 in this draft, Corey, and they might go, well, it looks like they're going to go higher than that collection of Your Garden trio in 2022. Victor Eklendland and Anton Friendell both in your top eight at this point. Yeah, I mean, Victor Eklunds just been fantastic all here at the El Cvanskin level, really good on Sweden's World Junior Team 2, small wing.

That's going to be the knock on him. But excellent skater, excellent skill, one of the hardest working players in the entire draft class. So you're not, I think, with just the defeat and the competitiveness. I don't think you're that worried about how his size is going to translate into the NHL. I think he's going to be a really nice top six wing in the National Hockey League. So he's definitely been a really exciting player to follow this year. I mentioned earlier in the segment that you publish a list and then you get more data immediately after, because Anton Prondell has just been fantastic ever since I published this list,

including a four-point game at one point of the Ausfenskin. And today, as we were recording, he was just absolutely fantastic against the United States at the U18, five nations, scoring two really high end goals in that game, just making an impact all over the ice. You know, he's a guy that you talk to some teams. They have him in that group still with Martone and Misa and Dinoje and Hagen's. I guess some are conflicted based on just how his first half would, which wasn't very productive or impressive at times. But just is there in the body of work, just how talented and competitive a player is, I think he's got a really good chance to go in the top five, six, whatever in the upcoming drafts.

And I think you can see both here regarding kids' names get called in the top 10. Last player I wanted to ask about in this list, Corey, is Jake O'Brien, and he gets into your top 10. He's one of my favorite prospects in this class. The playmaking is really impressive. and he was a guy who I think through the first month, six weeks of the season, you can probably find a little bit of rhyme in how we've talked about Nate Danielson on the show as a guy who looks like he's this great impactful player, but the numbers don't match. The numbers have matched over the last two months.

He is close to an assist per game player now in the O.HL. Yeah, I think maybe closer to maybe the Beckett Seneca story than maybe Danielson. Seneca had a slow first half last year. Then the season went on. You know, you kind of see a guy like O'Brien who just was very scrawny. and just has needed some time to get it going here. But the last month or two, he's been fantastic in the OHL. You know, as a big center who just has really high,

it's skill and vision. And I don't think, you know, I don't think he's going to be known as a great two-way player in the NHL, but I don't think his off-puck game is an issue. He gets to the middle of the eyes. He can, you know, get back on Pucks fairly well. He's a good skater. I think he's going to be a guy that when you just start thinking

about what teams valid, value, centerman, Stey's, you know, significant hockey sense. I think this is going to be a guy who will be at the very top of a lot of lists come to summer, presumably he continues to play like this. So I guess where that leads me is we've talked about a lot of players here that I think you're pretty excited about. I know we came into this year thinking this was a pretty average, maybe even below average draft class.

Where are you at on this class as a whole at midseason? Well, I think even below average drafts still have really great. good players. Like, you know, we talked about the old power draft being below average. We talked about the slap hockey draft being below average, but there's still plenty of good players in both of those drafts. I think that's still the case this year. I think any year, quite frankly, talking about a D-01. It's not, it's not the most interesting draft. Even if Schaefer, I think, is going to be a stud and is, you know, right up, that was one of the best de-p prospects in recent memory. It's not the best place to start typically. And then you just kind of go

through it and you start like I say you compare what's my second rank de-compare to maybe some of the past drafts it's all that exciting you know how would our six-seventh-eighth player this year ranked past years it's at least analogous probably with with a top end that's pretty good but I would say lack of special elements Schaefer is not Cellebrini Schaefer is not Condor-Burdard you know so I think it's just it's all about calibrations there I still think you're picking top five top six you're getting a hell of a player a guy who can There should be an impact NHL player for you. You could still get top six forwards, top four defensemen,

if you're picking in the top 10, top 12. But I think the drop-up happens a little bit quicker than maybe the last year or two. But also, these things change so much over the course of 612 months. Remember, during the draft season and the 612 months following the draft season, things could change too. But I would say, still my impression on the draft class is it is a below average draft class. but we have some really important tournaments coming up.

And we have the playoffs still to come, Vue 18 Worlds to come, and maybe my impressions of it at least change a little bit by that. All right. Let's take a quick break right there. We're going to come back with an excellent loaded mailbag that you're not going to want to miss. All right, guys, let's go now to the mailbag. And like I said before the break,

really fun collection of questions here. Starting with Charlie Douglas. And we'll start with you on this one, Scott. Do you think any of the top four of Schaefer, Hagan's, Mesa, and Martone, can go straight to the NHL this year? I wouldn't be shocked if Michael Misa went directly into the NHL. I think it'll be a tough sell for him.

Now, we'll see if he decides to go the college route that will be open to these guys that haven't signed contracts. But I think going back to the OHL would likely be a tough sell for him. We'll see what Saginaw looks like next year. They've obviously gone out and got a top import in Igor Churnyshov, who we talked about off the top of the show with the Sharks Prospect Pool Ranking. and I think there's a chance that they get Lucas Pedersen, the Anaheim Duck second rounder in Saginaw next year,

and they seem to have a way in Saginaw sort of hanging around as a good team because of the way that they build their rosters and the way that Chris Lazarie and that group coaches it. But I still think you're more likely looking at no. Matt Schaefer could he go into a camp as a very young 18-year-old, and we have to remember how young he'll be because of his September birthday.

Could he go into a camp and skate like the wind and start the year in the NHL? Yes. given the lost time for Schaefer this year and given how rare it is for 18-year-old defensemen to make that jump, though, I would be pretty surprised. I think James Higgins and Porter Martone absolutely have to go back. So you start to whittle it down. And I think if I were a betting man, I would lean no on those four.

It's going to be, I think, a very analogous situation to the 2015 draft where you had Dylan Strome and Mitch Martyr, who were just fantastic in the O.S. in their draft seasons. And you look at them and you thought, does it really benefit them to go back yet again and do this yet again? And obviously there's the kind of the unique variable out there of, could they go to college? And that's a whole other issue that we could tackle at another day.

But I think they're going to be on the border line there for me. I think with Mesa, I think just because of the high-end skating and he just has been, I think, just arguably the best part of the OHL this season. I don't know if, you know, obviously when in this drone in modern years there was this player I, you know, named Connor McDavid, who was in the league then too. So they weren't quite in the best player conversation that season. So I think it's going to be interesting conversation. I could see Mesa make the jump.

I could see Schaefer make the jump. But I think that this also poses a complication with that college question is that I think those guys could be borderline of cases where the team might want to experiment with that idea and bring. bring him into camp and bring him into maybe a game or two in the NHL, but by signing the contract, it would preclude them from going to college. So I think it'll be really fascinating to see how the teams that draft these players handle these situations. Martone is the one who I'm fascinated to see because he seems like he makes a ton of sense for that college avenue that didn't exist back in 2015.

We'll see if it happens, but that's the one I'm watching for that scenario. And yet with Martone, his dad played for the Peterborough Pete's, and he grew up in an O HL town, and I've talked with him a little bit about it, and about that specifically, even before the NCAA announcement, he said, the O HL's been my dream.

This is, I've always wanted to play in the OHL. So I honestly wonder whether Martone is the least likely of those three to go the college route. It just feels like the way he's dominated that league. And yet, if we're talking about him as the least likely to make the NHL, then maybe there's that sweet spot.

But it's a good point. A lot of this is going to come down to the kids in all these cases. Corey, next one's from Andrew Mayo. He says, although he isn't on your most recent list, where do you believe Malcolm Spence would get drafted if the draft were today? That's a good question, and I know he's been an often discussed about player over the past year, just because he's been at a lot of major events and play prominent rules for Hockey Canada, Tolenka Gretzky and U-18 World Championships.

And he's a very likable kid, a very likable player, super hard worker, good skater. I do think you look at this player, and while his competitiveness just, jumps out at you on a consistent basis. I do think his game can be a little vanilla sometimes. I think he's a good skater. I don't think he's an elite skater. I don't think he's an overly creative playmaker by any means. The production has been good, but nothing special this season.

So I think you look at this player, I'm guessing late one, high two would be my expectation on draft day. I don't think he's going to be this mid-first rounder that somehow thought he was going to be in the past few months. I mean, anything could happen in the, draft, I don't want to be definitive, but if I was to make a guess, like a mock draft, I'd put him in the 20s, I would guess right now. Scott, you got any thoughts on Spence? I think 20s is the range that Malcolm ends up in as well.

Like, I would compare him for like, Cole, Cole Bowdwen. Bo Dwen's bigger and a center Spence is a better skater, but like that would be like the range we're talking about, I think. Nabil Raman wants to know with the NHL personnel you've talked to, does Danoye have a chance to go before either Higgins and Orisa? Yes. I don't think it's out of the question at all. Teams are very, very high on Caleb. If Caleb goes on a run and wins the QMJ-Tel title with Moncton and is playing in the final hockey of the year at the Memorial Cup and scouts are tuning in to watch hockey games and the only games that are on TV for

them to watch, or the only trip for them to make is to Ramoski to watch him play in the Memorial Cup and he's excellent in the Memorial Cup. I think he'll absolutely be in the conversation at 23-4. I mean, it's the same conversation we have with Dubois in his draft year. There's no way he's going ahead of, you know, Macachachach, there's no way he's going ahead of yes, he'd pull you y'ar of it, but yet there he would because big centers, big two-way centers are

of extreme value to NHL management. And I think he's going to need to prove he has that level of offense. And I think, I wouldn't say he's going there yet. I think that the degree of talent that Hagan's and Mesa have right now is so high that I think DeNoi is going to need to

continue to back this up in the, in the coming months and into the postseason to leapfrog one of those two. But I definitely wouldn't rule out that possibility. All right, Corey, this one's from Maxwell, who says, how much interest is there in Mason West? And do teams think he'll ultimately choose hockey over football? West is playing at Edina High School right now in Minnesota, but he's also a three-star quarterback prospect.

Right. So this is a complicated one for those reasons. This first, you have to actually talk about the hockey player. he's whatever, 6-5-6, 6.6, he's a strong skater for his size. I think there's a little bit of skill in his game, but I think there are some questions about how high-end his natural hockey sense is, his overall offensive game is. I think you also have to adjust for the fact that he is just so athletic and he is not a full-time hockey player in recent years because he has also, you know, been a significant football prospect coming up. So I think it's the people who I talk to scouts,

I have him in the second round, I think it's a lot of bet on me. athleticism and what he's ultimately going to be. I utilize our vast resources here at the athletic and talk to some of our college football people about him the other week. And just a great idea of just how prominent a football prospect he is, you mentioned a three-star QB prospect. I don't get the sense that he's getting Power 5 offers right now to go be a quarterback at one of those schools.

He is getting offers from other schools. There is a chance he could be a Power 5 prospect. but if he were to change positions, so that I think that comes down at his camps, calculus of, does he want to be a quarterback, does he want to be a hockey player, does he want to play some other position in football? And my understanding is that decision has not been made yet.

And obviously that's going to be things that teams are highly monitoring because as one scab with me the other day, I don't know how my GM is going to feel if we use a second round pick on this guy. He's playing football next season. So I think those are going to be interesting decisions coming up there for Mason and things were going to be monitoring because he has to clear top high school prospect this season. Yeah, imagine how the Oakland A's feel when they used like the seventh overall pick on Kyler Murray.

They don't even exist anymore. If Mason does choose the hockey route, you're talking about a 6'5.5 center who can skate and that in and of itself will have plenty of appeal. We saw, now we're not to have very different players, but Dean Hortno was the first round pick last year. of the breakout stars post-draft of the 2024 draft class are Kieran Walton and Ilya protests who are two six foot five now they put protests plays more wing and center but we're talking about a fit and a style and a type that the teams are really high on these days and that increasingly despite the size these guys are finding ways to be skill players like protests and Walton are

skill guys in the O HL Dean Wittorneau was a skill guy entering the draft and West has has been that albeit at the high school level in Minnesota. And I think the questions are going to start coming up. How does he compare to Nick Bukestad at the same age? I think it would be behind Bukestead at the current moment, but I think that's going to be the obvious name that's going to come up as well as Laterno, as Scott just said. Scott, Shane Donne Respecter wants to know will James Hagen's be better than Logan Cooley? That's a pretty good cop.

I think we've talked about that one before. I think it's going to be close. Cooley is what, having a 65, 70 point pace season this year prior to the injury. I think it's a very, very interesting comp. They're both 5'10, 511 centers. They're both extremely skilled. They both have a little bit of a competitiveness to them that I don't think. Now, not to say that Jack Hughes wasn't competitive,

but you can draw a straighter line from James Hagen's to Logan Cooley than you could from either of those players to Jack Hughes just because of their willingness to sort of stick their nose in it. And there have been questions this year about James' ability to get to the net and score. and I think that's going to be a constant that he's going to have to answer over the sort of last third of the season here. But I think it's going to be close. Cooley obviously had a more productive freshman year in college, but Cooley also entered college a year later and finished his draft year at the NTDP. And they're on a little bit of a different timeline that way.

But very, very similar players in terms of the way that they handle the puck, their skill on the perimeter, but also a willingness to try to get to the inside and play with a competitiveness as a center. I expect that Higgins will be a center at the next level like Cooley has managed to become. It's a very, very, very close comp, I think. Corey, Hagan's has seven goals this year for BC. And if you go back and you look at Cooley's first year at Minnesota, he had like 22. Is the goal scoring? Is that the biggest concern here on Hagan's getting to be Cooley?

Yeah, I would say so. the goal score gives a significant concern at the moment for Hagan's. But it's a, you know, the draft season, yeah, you can do the freshman, the freshman season to analogy. We also can do draft season in the draft season where Cooley is playing junior hockey. Hagen's playing college hockey. It's a tough leap for any college player. And Higgins was more productive at the NTDP. You look at Kent Johnson.

He had issues scoring goals in college. Not so much issue scoring goals. versus men after he developed some strength. So you want to make sure you're not getting too worried about these kind of details. Actually, I'm still very, very high on Hagen's. And I actually think Hagan's to Cooley, it would be a pick-in for me in terms of thinking who's going to be the best player over the next 10 years. All right, Corey.

Next one is from Corey Oliver. He says, when you scouted the 2017 draft class, did you have any concerns about Elias Pedersen's compete? Yes. I had concerns on his compete, had concerns on his knock. needs skating stride and people might remember he's a guy I had to do a meet couple because I wasn't really I also liked the player a lot but he went a lot higher than I would have taken him and I had to do all I was wrong about this player you know uh kind of spiel and he was a guy who was very inconsistent

for me when I viewed him and I think you know especially his international events is you 18s is his world juniors he laid eggs at those like he looked very indifferent in some of those big games but then you, you know, you see in the Ossfensky, it's just highlight reel after highlight reel, and this guy just shows incredible skill and hockey sense and bullet shot from the perimeter, and obviously just a fantastic talent. And then you wonder why every time I go to watch him, does this player not show up for me? Am I missing something? Is there two of them out there?

Turns out there is two of them. That's a whole other issue. But, you know, but that was a concern for me. And I think you've kind of seen it in the NHL, is that when he's, He has the puck, but he's all the power play. It's in the offensive zone. This is a dynamic player. I think he's a guy who gets pushed around a little bit.

I think the skating isn't, you know, elite, quite frankly. And he can be a frustrating player at times and an absolutely dazzling player at other times. But obviously, you know, even though he's had some issues of late, he's still, you know, an exceptional hockey player who's among the very best players from his draft class. The other thing to call back on with Pedersen, too, is that entering the draft, he was like 155 pounds. He was rail thin. And what is it now?

Seven years later, seven and a half years later, he's still, I believe he's listed at like 175 pounds, even though he's six one, six two. So the weight piece of it just never came for him. And we were talking about Jake O'Brien being on the skinny side and Kent Johnson was on the skinny side in his draft year. And some guys just struggle. It's, you can be competitive. But if you're not strong enough out there, some guys just struggle and never, they never add weight. They fight it. their metabolism works different than some other guys.

And no matter how much they eat, it can be a bit of a challenge getting stronger and bulking up. And for Pedersen, I think that's been a piece of the puzzle, too, is he just, he can't, even when he does go into the fight, he can't push guys around. And he doesn't win battles like you'd maybe expect a top of the lineup first line player to. All right, Scott, next one's from you from JJ Hankey. He says, other than Roger McQueen with his injury, who is the prospect that gives you the most pause or concerned in the top 20 for any reason? We'll actually want both of you on this one, but start with Scott. Ooh, I think it's debatable whether he's even in the top 20 anymore. I think when we talk about late first, early second,

that Ivan Ryabkin might fit into that range at this point in time, and he might have played himself out of that sort of top 10, top 15 level talent conversation that people were having about him entering this season. Ryabkin's been better since coming over to Muskegon. He's certainly scored a lot since coming over to Muskegon, but he also mixed in a suspension for slew footing. And he's still got some work to do on his fitness level and getting into better shape. And there are a lot of question marks about Riappkin.

So I think he is, he's the wild card of the top 40, if you will. And we'll see what range he ends up going and who takes that swing. But there's going to come a point in time in the draft. I don't know when it's going to be, but we talked about this draft dropping off a little bit sooner than some other drafts. There will come a point in time in this draft class where there's a talent gap that starts to develop between Riepkin and the next best. player or the next available player. And teams are going to have to make that decision about a Russian winger, potentially at the NHL, despite the fact that he's played center coming up.

He's probably a winger in the NHL. It's not, especially with his history in this, a tough season he had this year, it's not going to be an easy conversation. It kind of reminds me a little bit of what happened with Brad Lambert a little bit in his draft year, to Ratu a little bit as well, just guys who were very productive at a very early age, like 15, 16 years old, we're very productive playing in good junior leagues.

And then just for whatever reason, never really put it together and sort of slip down lists. Obviously, Ratu went day two. Brad Lambert snuck into the first round. But I think that's kind of the range we're talking about now with three abkins. So again, the question was top 20, but he would make me uneasy in that range at this point.

I think he'll be just inside of that on my upcoming list. but I think teams are going to have a tough time taking him sort of in the teens or early 20s. We mentioned him earlier in the show, the one that I've struggled with the most in terms of where I think he's going to go and where I can't wrap my head around it is Logan Hensler right now. And then I don't dislike Hensler. I think he's a good player. He's a 6-2 right-shot defenseman who skates well. He has good skill.

He has good hockey sense. He's showing he can be very capable of the college level for what he's a good player. Wisconsin. He was a world junior player for the gold medal winning, you know, USA. He's, you know, he's been very highly tout coming up through the NTP. It's a good prospect. But my concern is when I watch from my wonder, like, what's the high end element in this game? Is it he's a good skater? I wouldn't say he's a high end skater. I don't think his overall hockey sense and puck moving and playmaking really stand out. I don't think he's a physical part to play against the fenceman. If I look at this guy, I wondered like, what's his role that he can

kind of carve into. I have that same question with Jackson Smith a little bit, but I think Jackson at least shows some dynamic offensive elements at times or a real physical element at times where I think there's a path for him to be a penalty killer or a power play guy in NHL potentially. I watch Kansas or I don't know what special team he fits into in the NHL. And I found when I can't answer that question, it doesn't usually age well. So that's the what I struggle with right now. Just based on the fact, I think if the draft happens, he'd be a top 15, top 20 pick at the moment? I'd add one more there too, and he's a player that scouts love, but I haven't been able to

wrap my head around Braden Coots in that kind of a range. I know he's been talked there. Teams really like him. Very, very competitive two-way player. Can play center, can play the wing, has been productive on a bad Seattle team as we touched on earlier, but I just don't see top 20 skill level in Braden Coots. So that's another one. I think Braden Coots is maybe a late first rounder for me.

And I think he'll probably go in front of where I would be comfortable drafting him. And sort of ties back to Cole Bowdoin, who Corey talked about earlier. I think that's the kind of player you're talking about. And I felt Cole, as much as I like Cole, I felt that Cole at whatever it was, 21 or 22 to Utah was just a little bit too high for me. All right. Next one to Corey is from D. Brown. They say, I know he's producing an incredible clip, but what's your confidence level in Sam Dickinson being a true number one defenseman, and should the sharks just take Schaefer because he's no doubt about it, number

1D? If not them, who would you most likely see join San Jose's young core? I asked Scott a version of this earlier in the show, so we'll put it to you now. Yeah. What I say, I have absolute confidence he's going to be that, no, I wouldn't have him at quite that level. I think he's got a really good chance, though, to be a legit palpair defenseman, a guy who's going to play 22, 23 minutes the night, you know, kill penalties. I think he could be a second power play guy in the NHL. I think some people will look at him and wonder, okay, well, how smart is this guy? How dynamic is he?

But the guy he reminds me a lot of at the same age would be Noah Dobson, with just the athleticism, the success on his team, the big point shot, the good hockey sense, the good skill, but you can be a little chaotic at times and you're not confident. is this really going to be a high, high-end brain guy at the next level, but he just gets a lot done on a consistent basis. I think there are some distinct terms of how the two of them play. But I don't know if we consider Dobson to be a number one or star number one defense in the NHL or maybe on the periphery of that.

But I think that's a potential path for Dickinson. And actually, they would have run the same point in the draft, actually. All right. And we'll close with you, Scott. We talk about a little bit this with Corey at the end of his draft list segment, Hawks Tank wants to know, is this a top heavy draft this year? And how far into the first you get before the question marks start to really outweigh the potential? Well, I think it's a top heavy draft insofar as it's not a deep draft in terms of talent,

but I wouldn't qualify it as a top heavy draft relative to some of the recent drafts that we've seen. I mean, we're not that far removed from Matt Veychkov and Adam Fantilli and you go down the list. even last year with Steve Boyam going 12th overall. There's nobody in this draft that's going to go 12th overall that I'm going to think about the way that I think about Steve Boyam, right? So it's tricky that way in that we've been spoiled the last couple of years with some pretty strong age groups. I don't think this draft class feels that way to me.

As far as drop-offs, my upcoming list for next week sort of drops off after 16. but the players who sort of slot in that end of 16 group don't excite me in the same way that they did last year. I mean, even a year ago, we were talking about Cole Eiserman and Trevor Connolly and some flawed players, but some very, very highly talented, highly skilled players. I don't even think there's a Trevor Connolly or a Cole Eisenman that's going to go into late teens or early 20s in this draft that has that kind of skill. You might look at a Cameron Schmidt, for example, who could be a late first rounder who's got done. dynamic quality as a scorer and skater. But even Cameron Schmidt maybe doesn't have that same sort of pop that

that O'Connellie was capable of having or that Cole Eisenman was capable of having. So I wouldn't qualify this draft as particularly top-heavy or particularly deep if I'm being on it. I think the one guy that could go outside the top 10 that could maybe rise to that. I end element is going to be McQueen, Roger McQueen, the center and Brandon. and that I really just like with Kane and Lynch in this point last year

because of the injury variable I really don't know where he's going in the draft and Lindstrom isn't helping him right now but I don't want to

I'm not a doctor and you know we'll see if Roger comes back this season I think there is still hope he comes back and plays at some point this season

but I think that's the one in a draft that maybe lacks a lot of dynamic elements once you get past the top five top six that's a guy

that could be a potential, you know, not going to say value pick, because it might be a catastrophic pick for all we know, but that could be a guy of significant talent that can be available later than where you usually get them. All right, that's going to do it for us. Great stuff today, guys, and thank you all for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series.

We'll talk to you soon.