The Athletic Hockey Show - Should Trey Augustine be the Hobey Baker frontrunner?

Episode Date: February 27, 2026

On today’s Prospect Series episode, the guys welcome Grand Forks Herald college hockey writer Brad Schlossman to discuss the top Hobey Baker Award contenders and how the first year of CHL imports an...d the introduction of NIL money has changed the landscape of NCAA hockey. Plus, a look at this year’s crop of college and international free agents that could make their way onto NHL rosters.Hosts: Max Bultman and Corey PronmanWith: FloHockey’s Chris Peters and Brad SchlossmanExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris FlanneryGot a question? Ask it here: t.co/fYieuQEg14Watch full episodes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowJoin our Discord Server: https://discord.gg/VTm9VjkFSubscribe to The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Bulbin here alongside Corey Prondman and Flow Hockey's Chris Peters for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. We also have a special guest with us today from the Grand Forks, Harold, Brad Schlossman. He does a great job on the college hockey beat there, and that's what we're going to talk about today. This is going to be a college hockey deep dive episode. There's a ton to talk about with the shifting landscape of the sport. And what's been a really interesting season there, and I think we should jump in with the hobie
Starting point is 00:00:51 because this is not a year where there is a clear-cut guy at the top of this list. And it's a tricky award to predict some years anyway. And I think no more so, Brad, than this year where it feels wide open. Yeah, I mean, last year I thought we maybe were getting to the point where we had a clear-cut guy, but the guy I thought who was going to win didn't win. So now this year it's really wide open. You know what?
Starting point is 00:01:14 And guys were making moves late too, which is, kind of interesting. You know, we're seeing, you know, a month ago, we probably wouldn't have had Gavin McKenna in the top 10. All of a sudden, he is going wild right now, and we, you know, he's working his way into that mix. Ethan Wittenbach is a guy who's having just an incredible freshman season. And a lot of times you kind of have an idea of who the candidates might be before a season. I don't think anyone would have penciled him in at the start of the year, but he's, you know, running away with the scoring title right now in college hockey. So it really does feel wide open right now.
Starting point is 00:01:50 Let's go through some of these candidates here, Corey, because like Brad said, Wittenbach, leading scorer in the country, that's always going to get you a foot in the door. But sometimes this is an award that prizes how long you've been in college hockey. And there's some kind of career, I think, about Jimmy Visi is several years back. And I wonder about a T.J. Hughes. I wonder about a Trey Augustine, who's a three-year goalie for the number one team in the country. There's a lot of names in this conversation.
Starting point is 00:02:12 You talk about Augustine's teammate, Porter Martone, as the top skater on the number one team in the country. Max Plant, Eric Polkamp at Denver is the leading defense scorer in the nation. This is a, this is kind of the field that I think we're talking about. Yeah, I think we'll see how the conference tournaments play out too, to your point, but not only is a favor typically older players, but typically favors players on the very best teams in Quinnipiac where Wittenbach plays is a really good team this year, but they're not, you know, a top three, top four team in the standings. You think of Trey Augustine, the goalie, Michigan State. You think of T.J. Hughes on Michigan. You mentioned Martona on Michigan State.
Starting point is 00:02:46 you could get to McKenna, I think is in the conversation. He's a top five score now. And, you know, he's been a big reason why Penn State's won some really tough games against tough conference opponents. He's in that conversation. Northeastern's having a really nice year. I think they're goalie. Lawton soccer is absolutely in the conversation there.
Starting point is 00:03:05 Max Plont, as Brad mentioned in Duluth, there's to be talked about here. But it's hard to really look at any one of these guys and say they are the clear favorite, even though Winback is about five to eight points ahead of the the next best player. I don't know that I would call him the clear favorite right now if I had to pick one. I'm not sure if Brad or Chris would disagree with that. I wouldn't disagree. He's nine points clear of the next closest player in the national scoring, which is a significant lead. But the threshold for some of the players in the ECAC has been higher unless you're Jimmy VC, you know, to get it. And I keep saying that just more for Max's Kyle Connor. Thank you.
Starting point is 00:03:46 vibes there. You're welcome. But yeah, I mean, like, it's crazy too, because we talk about T.J. Hughes being one of the top scores. And I would argue that Michael Hage has been the more impactful player top to bottom, you know, for Michigan over the course of the season. And so now you're, you know, who gets the better of that. So, you know, I think the McKenna conversation gets really interesting. The one thing I will say is that having a criminal situation on your hands in the midst of the Hobie race. Now, there were people that were upset that Adam Fantilli took like, multiple game misconduct penalties in his year. This might be a little bit higher of that threshold.
Starting point is 00:04:21 It's not going to hurt Gavin McKenon in his terms of draft stock. I do think it hurts his Hobie Baker candidacy, especially given that, as Brad mentioned, you know, we're in a group of people making a decision that, you know, we think it's going to go one way and it doesn't for various reasons. You know, I can think of a couple of times that that happened. So always crazy there. And also, you know, Augustine, I think best player, on the best team in the country, it's the threshold for goalies is,
Starting point is 00:04:50 is remarkably high. And I don't think that his save percentage is, you know, which is probably going to be the most looked at thing. Like if, if Connor Hellebuck couldn't get there with a 950 save percentage, you know, how is, how is,
Starting point is 00:05:02 how is Trey Augustine going to do with a 932? But, you know, I think it's really interesting to have the debates because, you know, the talent has been spread out quite a bit. You know, we haven't even really talked about, you know, Cruz Lucius a ton. And he's second in the country in scoring this year for Arizona State. So, I mean, there's a lot of different things that come into play here.
Starting point is 00:05:23 I do think that the likelihood of this is it's going to come down to some of those upperclassmen. And that does put Augustine into the mix. That puts Eric Polkamp into the mix. You know, I think that's going to be a big part of the discussion. But the other thing that I find fascinating, and, you know, Brad, I'm sure we're going to get into this. How many of the players are freshmen and sophomores, which you would expect? top prospects that are guys that are on an NHL track, guys that have come from Major Junior. It is interesting that the leading scorer in college hockey is still one that followed
Starting point is 00:05:57 the traditional path of USHL to college hockey and is the top score at the moment right now. So there's a lot of things that play there. But just knowing how the vote goes, this is going to be as tight as I think we've ever seen it. Yeah, I do think we have had in years past where, there have been career achievement award winners. I will say in the past, to the last three years, it has been a young freshman that has won it. Adam Fantilli won it in 2023.
Starting point is 00:06:27 Macklin Celebrini won it in 2024. Last year it was Isaac Howard, who was an upperclassman. Two years ago, if I remember right, the Hobie Hattrick was freshman Maclin Celebrini, freshman Will Smith, sophomore Jackson Blake. So I do think the committee, it's not, just looking at upperclassmen. And while we have had some of those years,
Starting point is 00:06:51 I do think big picture, they have been willing to, you know, vote for really young, talented players. And we've seen that quite a bit lately. I do think, as Chris Peters said, with Cruz Lucius having an unbelievable season, it's really difficult to get in the mix if your team's not in the NCAA tournament.
Starting point is 00:07:10 I think Matt Carl might be the last guy to win the hobby from a team that missed the tournament. that that's just really tough. The other thing to know, the top 10 is announced before the NCAA tournament begins. It's usually the weekend of the, like, into the conference tournaments, right before the bracket is released. So we have a top 10 then. And then from there, the voting comes after the regionals.
Starting point is 00:07:38 So if there's a player that has a big regional and leads a team to the frozen four, that can be fresh in a voter's mind, And even though I think you're supposed to look at the totality of the season, there's no question that will come into play. And it has come into play in the past that you can leave that good closing argument. I think it's interesting, Chris, you talked about with Augustine, the save percentage. But the last goalie to win it was Dryden McKay, 2022, 931 safe percentage, didn't lead the nation in safe percentage. And Triagosin is at a 932. And I also think the strength of the Big Ten this year becomes a very real conversation in this whole. deliberation because like you said,
Starting point is 00:08:15 Wittenbach's the leading, leading score in the country, but the thresholds a little bit higher. I don't know that I've seen the big tennis strong as it's been this year. And so to be the, the every night goalie for the top team and not just the country, but in the country's toughest conference this season, that feels to me like it plays a really big factor.
Starting point is 00:08:31 Yeah, it certainly does. And that was that Dryden McKay, Hobie Baker was one of those career achievements that Brad was talking about because that wasn't even his best collegiate season that he won the whole before. So, you know,
Starting point is 00:08:41 that was always interesting. But I'll tell you what, like with Trey Augustine and because of the wide open race that it is, to me, I always look at the best player on the best team. Last year it came down to, you know, Isaac Howard was, you know, the best player on one of the best teams and also had the highest points per game percentage of any player. You know, and, you know, Brad was alluding to it. I think both he and I thought Zeeb Bouillon was going to win last year. And, and he did not. So, and that was another instance where the, the actual regional, I thought,
Starting point is 00:09:12 really mattered and it and it didn't in that one. So that's always interesting too. But for me, Trey Augustine, to your point, this is a player that is playing at the very top of his game. He is the biggest reason to me that Michigan State is the favorite. They have a great team.
Starting point is 00:09:28 They don't have anything without Trey Augustine. I'm telling you right now, he is the biggest difference maker in the country. And he would have, you know, one of, he would probably be in my group to be in there. So I just,
Starting point is 00:09:41 you know, just knowing the threshold. especially since the existence of the Mike Richter Award, it's become harder. The funny thing about Dryden McKay is he won the Hobie. He did not win the Mike Richter award then. So, I mean, like, it's just, it's one of those things where, you know, you never really know until it's over. If I don't have a vote, but my vote would be Augustine, I think right now with the caveat that it's extremely close and a lot's going to change the next few weeks. Then the, through the tournaments.
Starting point is 00:10:08 but given just how close the field is and without a skater, especially one of the skaters on one of the top three or four teams, clearly running away with it. And I think you could mention on Michigan, who's the top forward on Michigan? Is it Paige? Is it huge? Michigan State.
Starting point is 00:10:24 Is it Martone? Is it Strammel? Penn State. Is it McKinnon, is it Wiesbach? Is it, DeMarsico? Obviously, you know, the lack of clarity there to me just favors Augustine's case. Well, I would throw in one more thing.
Starting point is 00:10:42 Do you know what one team where we know the top player is? It's Minnesota Duluth. Oh, yeah. We know Max Plant is the guy that stirs the drink for that big top line. And that team does not have much secondary scoring. And he has vaulted that team from missing the NCAA tournament right back into the national picture. And he's a special player.
Starting point is 00:11:03 So we'll see what his closing argument can be here the next month. I felt like at mid-season, he was the favorite for this. It's just that production has really, but he's a guy who was the leading scorer in the country. He was a top penalty kill guy. Like you said, stirs the drink for a team that was not good last year. And really is the biggest reason for their turnaround. It just hasn't been the same since the World Junior's production-wise. Well, you mentioned Duluth's turnaround, and I think Plont has a big factor to do with that.
Starting point is 00:11:29 But if it hadn't been for the fact that he's basically missed a third of the year due to the Spangler Cup and the Olympics, wouldn't, you'd not say that Adam Guyon's massive turnaround. has been one of, if not just as big a reason for their success right now? Well, they're going to go into the final week into the regular season, and I can tell you, I don't know if Adam Guyon's going to be starting enough for them. He's up and down. Yeah, he was really good. That first half of the year before. Basically, he got pulled away from his team for a month and a half, essentially.
Starting point is 00:12:01 Yeah, he was. He had a nice seat at the Olympics, at least. I don't know how Duluth fell about that. their goalie getting taken to basically be the number three goalie at the Olympics. All right. So we got Corey's lean right now. I want to get, and I don't want to ask you guys for your number one. Just give me your top three, Chris and Brad.
Starting point is 00:12:18 Yeah. So for me, Trey Augustine is in that mix. I think he's there. I'd also have Max Plant at this point. And the guy that I'm going a little bit off the board with is Michael Hage. Michigan is far better than I thought they would be this year. I think he is the most impactful player.
Starting point is 00:12:32 I actually think he's been one of the best players that I've seen in college this year in terms of the way. the way he impacts the game, the difference he can make with his speed, the types of goals that he's scoring and the size of the, you know, just he's, he's having, showing up in big moments for this team. He's not going to have the same level of counting stats as some of these other guys, but that to me is, is a player that has vaulted himself into this discussion. Now, there's a lot, like I'll say, there's a lot of other players that are in this mix for the Hobie Hattrick, including others. But for me right now, you know, I got to go with Augustine Hage and then plant, because
Starting point is 00:13:07 you know, if we're looking at the totality of work, I think plant's body of work is the best of anybody at this point. And then Augustine's the best player on the best team. Yeah, I would probably say, um, Augustine, uh, Max Plant, again, I, I just think he's exceptional and is, uh, is that wine is really good. He plays with his brother Zam and he plays with Jason Chagabay and those guys feed off each other, but Max is the one that steers the drink. You know, the, the other guy who I might go with that this. point is Eric Polkamp. I think he is, you know, 16 goals is incredible, but he's not just an offensive guy.
Starting point is 00:13:45 He is like one of their most reliable defensive guys. He brings a physical presence. One of the guys up here nicknamed him many years ago, Baby Buff. He's got a little Dustin Bufflin style where he's a thicker player. He can hit guys hard. He can bring offense. and, you know, I think he's had a really impressive season. So maybe a little NCHC bias there is that's the league I cover,
Starting point is 00:14:17 but I do think those two are legitimate candidates. For those who don't know who Paul Camp is, he's sick of, he was a mid-round pick by the San Jose Sharks, a dynamic offensive player, but he is not quite as big as Dustin Bufflin was. No. He's about five, ten, he's about five-ten, five-eleven. That's why it's baby.
Starting point is 00:14:37 Yeah, that's why he's baby. The other two other things about... I was sure whether people thought that Brad was saying that he's a younger version, which is he is... Yeah, I know. People will hear what they want to hear on that one. Yeah, but like for two other things about Eric Polkamp, leads the country in shots on goal at 142 and 33 games played,
Starting point is 00:14:54 or in 33 games played this year, also averaging over 23 minutes per game. He is a very big factor for the pioneers. He hit a slap shot in the Spangler Cup that was clocked at what would have been the fifth hardest shot in the NHL this year. And he's not even since he does have a bomb. He's got a bomb. And he's a 0.9 4 points per game average right now, which obviously is great from the
Starting point is 00:15:16 back end. Chris, real quick, on McKenna, you talked about the complications off-fight that off-ice is going to pose for him in this conversation. He is, it's worth noting he's coming off an eight-point game this past weekend. Yeah, 10-point weekend. If he's able to go at a pace where it's two to half, three points a game the rest of the way, can he work into that conversation? or is this too late in the year for that push?
Starting point is 00:15:38 He's going to have to lead the country in scoring, and he's going to have to lead Penn State out of the regionals, I think, in order for him to really sway the committee. There's enough people on the committee that won't care about what happened, but I do think there's more than enough on the committee that do, and therefore I think it's going to be very difficult for him to do it, barring something historic here on this last couple of runs. And honestly, you know, he could potentially,
Starting point is 00:16:05 do something with it because, you know, in terms of the Penn State schedule, they've got, they're at Notre Dame who's really struggled this year. And then they're at home against Wisconsin to close it out before they get into the tournament play. You know, how many more points is he going to get next weekend? He can get himself into the discussion, but I do think the threshold for him is now higher than it has ever been to try and win this award. All right, let's say a quick break right there. We're going to come back and talk a little more big picture on the landscape of college hockey. All right, we are back. And Brad, as someone who's covering a college hockey season that is getting toward the end,
Starting point is 00:16:42 I imagine that you've got a lot more on your plate now in terms of everything you've got to manage, everything you have to think about than you would have two or three years ago. Because the number of factors, the number of player movement that has gone into this, the pool of players available to college teams now with the inclusion of CHL players being eligible, is so much bigger. The threat of movement is so much greater. Talk about how different this is for you to cover and for the landfills. landscape in general from where it was even two or three years ago.
Starting point is 00:17:08 Yeah, I think people might not realize that my busiest month of the year is the first month after the season ends. That is total chaos for me because that's when all the player movement happens. And there's just been so many changes in the last five years. You know, at first there was the transfer portal and guys could transfer one time without having to sit out a year. Before, you always had to sit out a year and nobody wanted to do that. so you didn't see a lot of movement.
Starting point is 00:17:35 Then all of a sudden it went to unlimited transfers. Then all of a sudden there was NIL. Now all of a sudden the CHL is open. Any one of those changes would have been like one of the biggest changes in college hockey in a long time. But we've basically had massive change after massive change for each of the last five years. And coaches have really had to adapt on the fly and really had to learn quickly. So there have just been. It's been a dizzying amount of change, probably more in the last five years than there was in the previous 50.
Starting point is 00:18:09 And I don't think there's any doubt about that. It's just been a lot. But yes, I'm having to learn a lot more players. I never had to learn about the CHL guys before. So now all of a sudden I'm watching CHL games, trying to learn the league and the players. And it's certainly been a different experience for me. I'm probably texting Peters all the time asking them about different guys and Corey. and you guys who have a better, you know, grasp of it than I do.
Starting point is 00:18:38 But I've learned a little bit here, the last taking a crash course. And yeah, I mean, there's, and the other effect that it's had is that in the past, you lose a bunch of guys to graduation or the NHL. Your team the next year is whoever you have committed, you bring them in. And if you have holes on defense, well, you're going to have to live with that. and the down years coming. Now with the CHL and uncommitted players there and with the transfer portal, everyone has these routes to address areas that maybe they have missing on their recruiting board.
Starting point is 00:19:16 And they can get a little bit older if they want. If they look and say, oh boy, we're going to have four freshman centers this year. Well, North Dakota can go out and get Ellis Rickwood from Clarkson and pop him in there and address that. So everybody's gotten better and everyone is more complete than they've ever. ever been because they have ways to address these their needs. Okay. So you talked about the number of kind of C changes that there's been over the last years.
Starting point is 00:19:40 Let's, let's break them up for the sake of this conversation, even understand they all kind of work in concert. You cover a couple every day there in Grand Forks that are high, high profile former CHL guys in Cole Reschney and Keaton Verhoff. Based on kind of their experience in college hockey this year, both pretty successful, Verhoff certainly has a very good chance to be a top five, potentially top three pick in the NHL draft. do you think that it's the kind of showing from them that will encourage more guys to do this?
Starting point is 00:20:06 Yeah, you know, I think there was a lot of talk about whether guys would be going back at Christmas. And a couple did, but I think it's notable that what were there, 46 draft picks from the CHL that came to college hockey, not a single one of them went back. And I think, you know, once these guys get this experience, they're going to be texting their buddies back, telling them, not only what the hockey is like, but what life is like in college, and you're just going to see more and more guys come. I think that's actually the most underrated part of the whole thing, is hockey is one thing, and that's a big thing. And that's what we all talked about this first year, the development, the hockey and all that stuff. There's a lot of other things outside of the rink, maybe inside too, when you're talking about the training setups, that all these teams have like nutritionists and they have, you know,
Starting point is 00:21:00 mental health coaches and they have these great facilities. And I'm not just talking about the powerhouses that have these facilities. Like we're talking even the non-bluebloods who have renovated all their facilities. And then you talk about playing against older players. You're living on your own. You're living with your buddies. So I kind of said I think the first wave is going to come because they're ready for the next challenge. It's a step up from the CHL.
Starting point is 00:21:24 You're playing against older, stronger, more developed players. But I think the next wave comes because of everything else, these guys tell them about how life is in college. Corey, there are guys, though. And I'm thinking of Caden Lindstrom when I say this, who we expected, I certainly expected, was going to be one of the best players on Michigan State this year. And he's still a very good player, very good prospect.
Starting point is 00:21:50 I wouldn't say it's been the season, though, that I would have envisioned for him. And I wonder if there are also guys who look at that. Well, Caden Lynchstrom's got to be one of the most complicated cases out there just because, you know, missing nearly two full years of hockey due to injury. And then you started asking the ultimate question that we had back at his draft about this is a phenomenal athlete,
Starting point is 00:22:10 but how good is he actually when it comes to the offensive sides of the game? And I think those elements kind of converged a little bit this season. I wouldn't look at him and say it didn't go well for him in college. It's a dust. The college route isn't good for a lot of players. I think you can look at this and be like, well, this reminds me of like some other players where, They just didn't perform well.
Starting point is 00:22:33 It could be even someone like an Oliver Wallstrom or whatever, where it's just whatever reason it didn't really work well their first year in college. And maybe he decides to sign and just go turn pro and be in the Columbus season. Columbus organization next season, or he stays. We'll see what happens. But that was such a unique case. I feel like his poor season, you know, quite frankly, I'm not sure that's an indictment of junior players going to college.
Starting point is 00:23:00 I feel like if I'm more of a traditional guy, like a Martona or Roger McQueen would have performed really poorly, there would have been conversations about that. Even if McKenna really didn't turn it on like he has right now, I think there would have been some more conversations about that. But obviously, he's been so lights out good these past few weeks that I feel like it's hard to even talk about that anymore. I did talk to one of the U&D guys about how hard college hockey is. and his response was to me he's like well if you can't play in college hockey what makes you think you can play in the NHL like if college hockey is too hard
Starting point is 00:23:36 good luck in the NHL that's that was his response to me I get it but I think there's also there's a bit of between a 17 year old and an 18 year old like McKinna is a late birth coming in as an 18 year old same thing with guys like Martone and McQueen for a guy like a Verhoff to jump in that was not a guarantee and there were some scouts even not talk to who love Verhof, who think so highly him, who wondered how that was going to go.
Starting point is 00:24:00 And he's had his ups and downs a little bit more down lately and some significant ups along the way too. But I think those straight 17-year-olds, I think, are the biggest conversation. Just like if a straight-17-year-old goes to play league or SHL or K-HL, like that's just a, it's a really big and difficult jump. And, you know, we're going to see us next year, like, will Joseph come to college? Will Landon DuPont go to college as 17-year-olds? Maybe, maybe not. we'll see what they ultimately decide.
Starting point is 00:24:26 But I think those are very difficult for a player of those ages to have significant success, especially on good teams. Yeah, that's a good conversation. When is a better conversation? Because you're right. Not everyone can do it at 17. Yeah. The other part of this conversation is about the money.
Starting point is 00:24:44 And I think at the start of this year, when we were talking about CHL to NCAA, there was kind of this idea that, oh, well, the colleges are just going to pay these kids and the money is going to be a driving factor. What's interesting, Brad, is that we don't really know besides the big outlier figures, the McKenna's of the world, how much any of these guys are actually standing to get. But certainly my impression is that it is not so much that it would sway the decision for many of these guys. Yeah, I mean, what, like 95% of college hockey players aren't getting NIL money, you know? And, you know, I think we just, when you focus on the high profile guy, yeah, they're getting something. It's not in the ballpark of McKenna.
Starting point is 00:25:26 His was a very unique circumstance. Are there other guys that are hitting around the six-figure type? There are probably a couple, but hardly any. I think, you know, there's not the money you see in football and basketball in hockey. A lot of them are getting their school paid for. They're getting their cost of attendance scholarships, which does put some money in their pockets. Some schools are getting Alston money,
Starting point is 00:25:55 which is six grand a year or so. And then they're adding on a little bit too for some of the high-end players. But this is not like, I think there's this perception that, oh, you're going to college, you're getting $100,000. It's like, well, no, there's like,
Starting point is 00:26:11 you know, a half a percent of college hockey players are getting that. Brad, why do you think there's been a lack of transparency around this in college hockey, especially compared to college football and college basketball, where for the most part that information is public knowledge at this point. But I feel like in college hockey, it's become very hush-hush in terms of what these guys
Starting point is 00:26:32 are actually getting paid for the few that are getting paid. And even with McKenna, like Penn State put up a fight when that number was disclosed, a 700,000 number, which I think you talk to people around the game, it's become commonly know that is the number, but they denied it for a very long time. Well, I think what you see happening college football and basketball generally, it eventually makes its way to college hockey. It just takes five, six years. That's a lot of trends I've seen over 20 years.
Starting point is 00:27:05 I think what it would take is the agents deciding that leaking this number to media is beneficial to, you know, it was kind of like NHL contracts once agents figured out that it was beneficial to their players for everyone to know how much everyone was making, that money got out. And I think that's what college football agents are doing is, hey, we need to get these numbers out. It helps negotiating and stuff like that. So maybe at some point they will. There's also an interesting dynamic coming where you can, schools are allowed to pay themselves, not like third party NIL, but there's revenue sharing. And I think that's one of the other questions is what is rev sharing going to be at some of the major programs? Is all of it going to go? You know, is in Minnesota going to pump all of it into
Starting point is 00:28:00 football and basketball? Is hockey eating it some? You know, that's. Yeah. You know what? So that was, that was the point that I was going to make in the last thing is that, so we have some evidence in terms of what the revenue sharing looks like. Boston College, their athletic director gave a press conference earlier, this year. And this is how this breaks down just to kind of give you an idea of the pile of the pot of money. So like whatever it is, the $20 million, $20.5 million, $75% of that goes to football, 15% to men's basketball, 5% to women's basketball, and 5% to everything else. Now, this is a school where hockey is one of their most successful programs. The men's hockey team is one of their most successful programs. They are part of everything else in revenue sharing.
Starting point is 00:28:48 And that's just the reality of what it is. And so I think that there is, you know, while everybody's looking at big numbers, once they actually find out what pile of money is available to them, the reality sets in very quickly. And now it becomes really, to me, the arguments for whether you stay or go to college have largely not changed unless you are a major outlier like a Gavin McKenna, you know, Porter Martone. players that have, you know, a top 10 NHL draft pick, you know, like that's, that's the kind of people that we're talking about. So if you are the leading scorer in the OHL as a 20-year-old, the scholarship is, is the best you're probably going to guess unless you're a superstar, you know, so that's where we're at. That leads me to my next question is, even though, if so, if there isn't a ton of money to go around, who does have any money to kind of throw at hockey
Starting point is 00:29:47 players. To my understanding, I think University of Michigan is one of those teams that can throw around six-figure NIL deals, maybe not to their entire team, but to a couple of players. And I think that's going to come up, you know, this summer when we talk about 09s like DuPont and Joseph or high-end 08s like Carson Carls or Daxon Rudolph, you know, Caleb Malhotra, you know, what what school can afford to pay. these guys. And will it change, Brad, who you think the traditional blue bloods have been over the past decades?
Starting point is 00:30:26 Number one, I think the teams that can throw it around are a lot of the big athletic departments that you would guess. You know, I think the Big Ten has more money than the other conferences and is able to spend it. I think, you know, there's a step down from that with some of the other prominence. schools like a Boston University or a North Dakota or a Denver or those schools have some. And then there are schools that don't have any. And I think from an NHL fan point of view, we all have so much focus on the top prospects. And for good reason, a lot of them are the best players.
Starting point is 00:31:09 But you can be a really good college hockey team without them. Like last year, Western Michigan was an absolute. wagon. They rolled through the whole season. They won the regular season, the playoff title, the NCAA title. Who is their highest draft pick on that team? They didn't have a guy drafted in the first two rounds. They were... It was probably Zach Naring. Yeah. And Vasonin was on that team too, right? Yeah. Yeah. So you can have like these fifth rounders who aren't getting big NIL deals that are just fantastic college hockey players.
Starting point is 00:31:43 You know, I mean, obviously North Dakota's season has been greatly impacted by Cole Reshny and Keaton Verhoff, right? Their leading score right now is a guy named Ellis Rickwood. Their top defenseman is undrafted Jake Levinovic. Two guys we're going to probably talk about later in the show. But anyways, I mean, that goes to show like you can have some really good college hockey players and win with them. and that's what I think the question is. If the Big Ten has done a lot of spending, no doubt about it, the Big Ten has never won a national championship in its entire existence in 12 years, not one.
Starting point is 00:32:27 And if the schools are spending tons and tons of money and they're not getting over the hump, my question is at some point do they say, what are we doing? It's certainly in this era, though, I think, to go that far, but I get what you're saying. I also think some of these programs pride themselves in being NHL factories as much as they are and winning college hockey championships. One last question on that front. Obviously, the big school name that comes to mind would talk about the NIL and bringing an NHL prospects this year is Penn State, not just because of McKenna, but also because of Jackson Smith. You know, a top 15 pick. That was a major change for this program.
Starting point is 00:33:13 You know, being, you know, on national television all the time and being at the forefront, you know, everybody's watching, see what Penn State's doing every weekend. Do you think this is persistent? Are they going to be spending every year? Are they going to try, is this going to be the same thing this summer and next summer? Or do you think it's a one-off? We go back to Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin and the normal Big Ten schools going to. forward. Well, I think two things.
Starting point is 00:33:41 I think are, is Penn State going to go spend half a million on another player next summer? I don't think so. I would be surprised. But I think the reason they went out and got Gavin McKenna was not just to get Gavin McKenna. They went out there to change the perception of their program going forward. And it was not only just to get him, but what it was going to lead to down the future. And I think, you know, if they're involved in, you know, some NIL, that helps.
Starting point is 00:34:13 But just the fact that they're in the national picture and their perception is completely changed probably now among prospects. You know, if you're a guy getting recruited by Penn State 10 years ago versus today, you're probably perk up a little bit more today. And so I do think you are going to see more players go there. And I think that's why they grab Gavin McKenna. Well, the other thing that I've kind of talked about this year, Brad, and we've had this discussion, not on camera, but Gavin McKenna, you know, he's more than likely still probably, you know, going to go number one. But, I mean, it's been a debate all year. And I've argued if he doesn't, it's almost worse for them. Like, if he doesn't go number one, it is now the advertisement is you took that guy and he didn't go number one.
Starting point is 00:35:05 and now that's a problem. I agreed with you up until a few weeks ago, Chris, but he's been so good lately. Like, if he doesn't go number one, it's not Penn State's fault. No, I agree with that, but I'm just saying if he doesn't, it may not be, that's perceptive. That's not, you know, if you would have to know that. Like, if you're somebody that doesn't have any familiarity with college hockey,
Starting point is 00:35:24 you see what Gavin McKenna was and then he doesn't go. But here's the other thing. I'm looking at their recruiting class for the next couple of years. There's some good players in there. There is not a blue chipper. among them. I mean, unless you want to, like, Pierce Bowie is a good player. Kieran Dervin's a good player.
Starting point is 00:35:42 Ryder-Fedderall has been awesome in the OHL this year. We'll see where that all goes. They've got some guys, but really, my thing with them is, who's the next guy? You know, who's coming up? Because the other thing that I've seen is I still haven't seen a team that's playing a championship brand of hockey. They've got good players. But I think once it gets to the playoffs, I mean, they beat a team 11-4. one night and needed overtime the next.
Starting point is 00:36:08 Like, you know, it's, I'm, it's a tough team to get your, get your head around here and where things go from here. But absolutely agree with Brad, though. Like this, that, no team could benefit more from, like Michigan State would have benefited, but not to the degree that Penn State benefits from having a Gavin McKenna in their program. Yeah. All right.
Starting point is 00:36:29 Let's take a quick break right there. We're going to come back and we're going to talk about some more intriguing NHL candidates in the college hockey and international landscape. All right, we're back. And Corey, every year, one of the most interesting articles you do, I think, is the college and international free agent rankings. And a couple of years ago, there was a name at the top of that list who has panned out very well, as well as I think everyone hopes for when you're going in this market.
Starting point is 00:36:53 You understand that you're dealing with mostly undrafted players. It, by definition, makes them longer shots. But Colin Graf or the San Jose Sharks has turned into a real player for them. Is there anyone in this class, either in college or among the international guys, who you think rises to that level of a, like, legit prospect. Nobody in college, but the one in in Europe, and specifically in the KHL, Pinchuk, who plays on Dynamo Minsk, is really intriguing for NHL teams.
Starting point is 00:37:21 He's a big forward, 6-3-6-4. He's dabbled at some center, but he's probably a wing in the NHL. Good skaters. He's been among the leading scores in the KHL this year. You know, I don't think you're like jumping up and down for this player. He's not like an elite talent by any means, but you look at what like Maxen Sipikov gave the Islanders when they signed him. I think he's going to be able to give a team useful minutes right from day one next
Starting point is 00:37:44 season, you know, probably a third line winger. But I think he's a good player. I think he is among the whole marketplace. The only, I think, sure thing. There's a lot of, there's some intriguing names that we'll get to on the college front that I think, you know, have chances to make it. But I think he's the only one I look at and thinking, okay, there's a clear path for you to play in the NHL.
Starting point is 00:38:05 And the only other thing I thought was interesting. and this pivots to our old conversation in the last segment about the CHL is when I went through this exercise all the guy this article used to be college, European and CHL free agents. There was not a single
Starting point is 00:38:23 player in the CHL to make my list this year, which has never happened before. Because every single time I watched a player and I thought, huh, he's interesting. I think he could get a contract. You go to elite prospects and you see committed to this school, come into that school,
Starting point is 00:38:39 commit to this other school, which I think is smart, because a lot of these guys would sign and go play in the ECHL or go be a fourth line four in the American League. And I think for that player type, it made a lot more sense for them to go play two, three, four years in college
Starting point is 00:38:53 and be a lot more physically developed and ready to play either, you know, prime American League minutes or potentially even push for the National Hockey League. And to Brad's point, probably have a little bit more fun in some of these colleges. college towns and they are riding the bus in the ECHL.
Starting point is 00:39:10 The article came out earlier this week. So I don't need you to go through every single guy, but just let's hit a few of the top names here. Number two on your list after Pinchuk and the top guy from college then would be Tyson Gross from St. Cloud State. Yeah, I think Gross has a lot of the traits you wanted in an NHL prospect. And usually when you go into the culture free agent market, there's a glaring issue in a lot of these players.
Starting point is 00:39:31 They're either too small or they're too slow or they have no offense. With this guy, he is a good size center. He is a good skater. He has shown legitimate offense this season. He's among the leading scorers in college. He checks a lot of boxes. I don't know if he's the most natural playmaker oversea. I think his hockey sense of the next level is just going to be okay.
Starting point is 00:39:52 But he's a really good player. I know when Brad and I have talked off camera, he's a guy that he's really passionate about too. And I think among all the players I've watched in college this year, I think he's the one that has the clearest path to potentially being, a bottom six forward in the NHL. Brad, you probably see him every so often, right? Yeah, just two games this weekend.
Starting point is 00:40:14 Yeah, he's a, he, on top of his scoring, he's, you know, I think coming into last week in any way, he had won 50 more faceoffs than any player in the entire country. He wins like 60% of his draws, you know, he does all those little things that, you know, that go along with the points. So I have been a big fan of him the last two years, and he just gets better and better. One of the names we mentioned in the Hobie conversation, T.J. Hughes is on this list.
Starting point is 00:40:45 But, Corey, there's one of his teammates who is even higher on this list is Josh Ernessy at Michigan. Yeah, and that just comes to a pro-projection. Ernessy is huge, and he can skate, and he's physical, too. He doesn't have anywhere close to the level of puck play of Hughes. But, you know, when you're picking college-free agents, You're not thinking who's going to be a first line forward from my team. You're usually thinking who's going to be a fourth line forward.
Starting point is 00:41:08 And I think Ernest's profile projects much more into a bottom of the lineup role in the NHL guy who could be fourth line in P.K. Hughes is, you know, very skilled, but he's like 24 going on 25. He's 6.0. He's a below average NHL skater. I think the past, he reminds me a little bit of T.J. Tidon, and I'm not sure if I'm just connecting the T.J. to the T. there or if there's actually a that's actually a good comp. But I just have a despite his prolific college scoring, he's been one of the best
Starting point is 00:41:37 players in college hockey the last two, three years. I just don't know if his athletic toolkits going to translate to the pro game like some others in this crop will. Yeah. And I think to Corey's point, like there is a recipe for, for what guys go. And he talked about, you know, having the size, having the skating ability, you know, where's the hockey sense, different things like that. I think guys like TJ Hughes, there are going to be a lot of teams that are going to offer him an
Starting point is 00:42:03 HL contract first. And maybe the competition will be, you know, who actually gives him the NHL deal. You know, that could be the, if the market is strong enough for him because I think a lot of people will be there. It's really interesting to see he had a teammate in Brooks and in junior, Ryan McAllister, who immediately signed after his freshman season was awesome at Western Michigan. And he's really struggled to go up and down. So I think that Hughes has actually, you know, played the long game. He had interest each year over the last three or two, I should say.
Starting point is 00:42:35 So that's there's, he doesn't fit that, that athletic profile. But then there are guys that like, like earnesty, who's a great example. I think Jack Stockfish at Holy Cross is another one where it's like maybe we'll, you know, we want to see what that player can bring. You know, I think back years and years ago like Andre Schuster or, you know, there was J.T. Brown who was able to be a penalty killer. like guys that can fit into roles down the lineup. You're so rarely going to get the elite player,
Starting point is 00:43:05 the guy that's going to play at the top of your lineup. And you're actually rarely going to get an NHL player, period, from this crop of players. But you play the percentages as, you know, where the size may give them the right shot factor could give a guy advantage, the age, like how, you know, certain guys are going to come out at 22, 23, but there might be a guy that's there at 21 that's like has that runway
Starting point is 00:43:27 that you feel like you can get something out of. So it's been fascinating to watch over the years, but I also think we're going to see a number of those players that were free agents on Corey's board from the CHL with two extra years of high-level competition to prove that they're going to get those opportunities. I think that that extends the opportunity. And that's really maybe one of the biggest advantages
Starting point is 00:43:50 of the college game at this point. Yeah, one of those guys that probably, you know, maybe would have been on his board is Nathan Pillan. at St. Thomas. At some point, he's going to be on your board, I think. He's a guy that just got a longer runway by being able to go to college. He played for Seattle and the WHL. Now he's over at St. Thomas having a great year. And at some point, he's going to be that guy that's a free agent signing. And that just is how the game has changed a little bit. Another guy that you guys are, that comes to mind is you guys are mentioning that you're looking for a guy that can fit that
Starting point is 00:44:25 third and fourth line role. You already have your first round draft picks that play top six, right? Who can play that third and fourth line role? One guy that jumps out to me, Marty Lavins at New Hampshire. He hardly has any points, but that guy is physical, he's fast. You want a guy that can kill penalties and who knows what he is. I, so if Marty Lavins gets signed and you look and say six points, don't be surprised. The guy can play. I'm a big man. I thought about him. I think you've got at least have a little bit of skill. The one guy in that conference that fits that role for me would be Kiva Oya, who plays on Providence, where I think he has that level of physicality,
Starting point is 00:45:05 but there's at least a little bit of talent there. He's been a big part of Providence's success here, even though he's been playing in their bottom six. But I did watch Lavin's. I had had at HL people mention him to me, but I just couldn't get there. I love Marty Lavin's for the summer world juniors in Latvia making the quarterfinal. He was the best interview at that thing.
Starting point is 00:45:26 And on top of it, he was part of that iconic now, U.S. college selects team that played at the Spangler Cup. One of the best names in this crop, Viking Gustafson is kind of the same line of thinking. He's huge. He's very physical. He's a decent skater. I plays on Uganda. I think he's got like four points this year or something like that. I just, I would rather sign Jake Livenavich,
Starting point is 00:45:54 who I think has the competed in the skating and actually has a really high level of skill, even though he's only 510, then that type. He's at least have a little bit of talent for me, but I think he's going to get an NHL contracts. People are going to say when you're that big and you're tough as nails, like we'll find a way for you to be our six or seven defensemen and, you know,
Starting point is 00:46:13 fill some minutes or just go hit a guy we don't like one night. Name's a little redundant. When you're Gustafs and the Viking kind of goes without saying, in my view. You were talking about size earlier, and certainly in goal, that is a big factor that we think about. And to me, the quintessential, like, dominant college goalie is always like a 5-11-60 guy who has not great pro-projection, but has made a living off of being an outstanding college goalie. The top goalie on your board this year does have a little more size than that.
Starting point is 00:46:43 He's had a great year at Northeastern, Lawton Zucker, 6-2. It's still not huge. It's still not prototypical size, but it's in the ballpark at least. Yeah, I think him and Josh Cote at Augustana, who's like 6-1-ish, maybe 6-2, if you tilt your head the right way. I think they're both going to get contracts. They both have been among the best goalies in college. They're not tiny. They're not like, you know, like a hunch that Chris mentioned earlier in the show.
Starting point is 00:47:09 I don't know if either are going to be sure things to make it to the NHL, but I think there's enough there. And they're not long shots. They're not like a Cooper Black who's like this giant. but it doesn't really have the production. They have great production. They've been massive contributors to their team's success this year. And I think they actually look like decent NHL prospects. Any other names, Brad, you want to throw before we let you go?
Starting point is 00:47:35 Well, I mean, the two guys I cover every day that I know are getting a lot of interest, Jake Levinovic, to me, he's a Troy Stetcher. He's smaller. He can really skate. A lot of people see the points and think he's just a small, offensive guy. he's like they're crutch defensively. If they're in a defensive situation, Jake Levinovic every time. Ellis Rickwood, a guy who came over from Clarkson this year,
Starting point is 00:48:02 first line center leads North Dakota in scoring. He's a guy who wins 55 to 60 percent of his faceoffs, really good all-around player, his track record. Everyone always wants him to play with good players. He played with Martino when he was at Ayrton Martino at Clarkson. He played with Matthew Wood when he was at Victorian Jr. He just is a guy that constantly plays with good players and succeeds. So he's a name for sure that I would throw out there.
Starting point is 00:48:33 You know, Matt DeMarcoco at Penn State, skating, shooting ability. Owen Michaels at Western Michigan, which has been a free agent factory the last six or seven years. I think he's the guy who jumps out to me there. Grant Slikinsky as well would be a name to throw out. In the CCHA, Hayden Hennon, big right shot D-man for Augustana. He's definitely getting a lot of interest this year. Lucas Wallen at St. Thomas. He'll get signed.
Starting point is 00:49:07 And, you know, I think Dartmouth has a few. Yeah. Cleves there, I think, is going to get a date. deal. There's two cleaves. One's going to get drafted. One's going to get an NHL deal, I think. You mentioned Stavrov, who can score goals. And C.J. Foley, you know, he doesn't have the size of an NHL defenseman, but there's a lot there too. And then there's a couple really big guys in that league who I don't think will be this year, but file away in the back of your head for a few years, Ivan Zavernik at Browns, a good player in Rastfus, Spartstrom at St. Lawrence,
Starting point is 00:49:49 two big guys that are thriving right now. And combined, all of them together will probably get like 10 NHL goals. That is the market of the college free agent. All right, you can read that article on the athletic from Corey Promin of his top college international free agents. Great stuff, Brad. Thank you so much for joining us. Brad Schlossmann of the Grand Forks Herald.
Starting point is 00:50:13 That is going to do it for us on this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect series. You can, of course, catch more of Chris over at Flow Hockey and on his podcast called up. We'll be back with you next week. Thanks for listening.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.