The Athletic Hockey Show - The NHL’s top 5 Cup or bust teams

Episode Date: October 10, 2024

Hailey and Sean dive deep into which teams need to – and realistically could – capitalize on their window of contention the most? The clock is ticking on the New York Rangers, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights, Nashville Predators and the Tampa Bay Lightning. Plus they look back on an entertaining 2nd night of action in the NHL with 36 goals combined, scored in the 5 games played.Hosts: Hailey Salvian and Sean GentilleExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Jeff Domet Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. What's up, everybody? It's Haley Salvean and Sean Jintilly here with you. It's another Thursday edition of the Athletic Hockey Show. And the NHL is officially back, Sean. We're fully two days into the season. I know we had some games, you know, three weeks ago that were regular season games. But in terms of the full schedule, we're here.

We're two days in. How's the hockey watching going? I do appreciate that we have just as a call. culture decided to pretend that the games in Prague just haven't happened. It seems like, oh, yeah, those are fine. And every, like, we look at the, we look at the standings and we wonder, you know, how the, how the preds are, are where they are or whatever. But it's, it's good.

I'm glad that we, we just put those on a shelf and they're like, yeah, this is stuff we've all been waiting for. Not last week. So usually on Thursdays, we've gotten used to doing a deep dive episode, and we are going a deep dive into a topic later in the show coming into the second segment. We're going to look at what teams need to capitalize on their window of contention the most, essentially who were the cup or bust teams in the NHL this season that comes after Dom and Scott Wheeler. I always just say Dom. Dom at the athletic and Scott Wheeler came out with an NHL contention cycle story today

that's actually quite interesting. And it combined Dom's model with Scott, prospect tiers and looked at the teams and where they are now with what is coming up in the future and kind of looked at the teams in each life, every team's life cycle. So we're going to get into that, but mostly on the side of the win now part of the bracket. We'll get into that later in the show. But first, I think because we're still early in the season, and because it was actually a pretty good night of hockey on Wednesday night, I think we should get into the games. little bit, a 36 goal night in the NHL on Wednesday, including a 12

goal game and an 11 goal game. But first, we did have to start with the Toronto Maple Leafs opening their season with a 1-0 loss for the Montreal Canadians at the Bell Center. We don't have to, but okay. I think we should. I mean, I think the main highlight

in that game was Sam Montembo. He set a new high and saves in the season opening shutout in that game. It was also the first time the Leafs have been shut out almost three years and they did it in their season opener in Montreal. Montembourg is really interesting and I think he is the Canadians are really interesting for a handful of different reasons but I think Montembourg is towards the top of the list like he's

shown signs especially last season of being a legit starting goal tender like we'll say top 15 in the league and he did it last year on a team that is still on the come up. There's still huge holes up and down the lineup. And he did it while he was part of a three goalie rotation for the for the bulk of the season, right? Where Jake Allen's getting a lot of starts and Caden Primo is getting some starts. And there's not like there's not a there there wasn't he had to fight to get into a rhythm last year. And I think by the end of it, see Jake Allen get moved to New Jersey.

That's a sign I think that they believed in. Montembo and believe that this dude is ready. And he looked like it right off the bat. So yeah, is he going to make 45 saves, 48 saves of every night? I don't think so. That would be a record. But he's certainly a capable dude. And their rebuild gets a lot more interesting to me,

knowing that he's back there and knowing that he's starter caliber and capable of carrying them on nights when maybe they don't necessarily have their A game. And I think that having that kind of guy in place is a major, major thing to have for a team that's, you know, trying to level up from being bottom five, bottom seven in the league like the Canadians are. Is there a bottom tier team in the NHL whose roster you'd rather have more than Montreal's in terms of the future?

I think, I think the only bottom 10, bottom 15 team in the NHL who you should realistically say, no, I would rather take them over Montreal, would be Chicago. because of the Connor Bedard factor and maybe the San Jose Sharks because of Macklin Celebrini who is going to make his debut with the Sharks on Thursday night. But to me, I think the Montreal Canadians

in terms of the like win later when we're looking at that cycle chart, those are the ones, that's the team for me that I circle and say, I want that team. Oh, absolutely. Five years from now or three years from now. And how much of this is because we got our first,

Like I hadn't watched Lane Hudson for a full game until last night. Like you see, you see the stuff that that dude's capable of with his skating when the puck's on his stick. It's, you know, we'll see it. We'll see what he's, how he looks in January. But the talent's evident, right? So you got guys like him, you know, you have Demadov, who's, who seems like he's got a super high ceiling,

their first round pick, the, the winger, a couple months back. you know, David Ryan Bacher, these guys that are in the mix for them on the prospect end of things make them super duper interesting. And that's before you start talking about Nick Suzuki, before you start talking about Cole Coughfield and guys who are there and, you know, to some degree, productive, established NHL players, even though they're, even though they're still relatively young. It's a nice, it's a nice mix for them, for sure. Yeah. And Cole Cawfield scored the only goal in that game. It was his first goal of the season, obviously, and his first since changing his number to 13 to honor Johnny Goddrow.

We saw a little point up to the sky after the goal, and I just think it was a really nice moment to highlight from that game. And going from, because I was channel surfing a little bit, because the way the games were paced out a little bit, I almost immediately went from watching Cole Cawfield score with number 13 on his back to watching the moment of celebrating. and the tribute video in the Penguins home opener against the Rangers with basically an ISO cam on Kevin Hayes in that moment. And I think back to back, it was just a really emotional reminder that the NHL season is here and Johnny Goddrow and his brother Matthew are not.

And I've seen Meredith, Johnny's wife, posting a lot about how this time of year has been really difficult for her because she'd be bringing there. kids to Columbus for a game right now or John would be at training camp, etc. And so I think it was just a, it was a really nice moment for Cole Coughfield. And it was just another reminder of the tragedy that happened and just thinking of of that family and Blue Jackets fans, everybody who loved Johnny and Matthew Goddrow once again. And I just, I love, I love Cole Cawfield, man. Like the fact that he did that, the fact that he switched his number and he had such beautiful things to say about Johnny Goddrow and how Johnny was this idol to him, right? Johnny was the model.

He was the path. And now you have this really beautiful moment of Cole Cawfield scoring, a big goal in this season opener, the home opener, one of the most iconic franchises in the NHL in honoring Johnny Goddrow. It was just really perfect. I think the juxtaposition between Caulfield and Kevin Hayes is, it's perfect, I think, in some ways. It's as good as it's as you're going to get because players like Cole Coughfield, that's a huge part of Johnny Goodro's legacy. You know, an American player, a short player, a winger who, you know, loves to do, loves to score goals and do, you know, blashy stuff. Yeah. Like get people out of their seats.

Yeah. There's not, there's not a better model for Cole Coffield, all things considered than Johnny Goodrow on the ice. And I think we're going to see that element of his legacy really borne out moving forward. I like, we're like any, any time you,

this is true a year ago, it's true, whatever, it's going to be true forever where you see a winger who's five, eight or whatever and likes to, and likes to shoot. the puck and has elite playmaking skills. Yeah.

Deacon around everyone on the eyes. Yep. We're going to, we're going to think of Johnny Goodrow. And then you have, you have Kevin Hayes on the other end of things. I mean, that's like,

you know, that's another part of Goodro's legacy is how beloved he was and what a good friend he was and when a good teammate he was, two guys like Kevin Hayes, right? So you have the personal end of things on one end, the personal legacy, is Kevin Haynes and in the professional legacy, which is Cole Coughfield.

And I think those two coming together on the early starts last night was nice to see. I think TNT did a really beautiful job with their tribute video as well. And they all took some moments to share memories on the broadcast of Johnny Goddrow. So TNT did a really, really great job with that. To move on to the Rangers game and the Penguins game, because we did just speak on that with Kevin Hayes. penguins entered the season with lower expectations than any point in the almost two decades of Sydney Crosby's career. I think we can agree on that, right? No one's expecting the penguins to make the playoffs here.

And yet I still think the opener was disappointing, even knowing they're playing the Rangers who will talk about later in the show in terms of their expectations and what they want to achieve this season. And the penguins knowing that they're not even like everyone's projecting them to miss the playoffs and that game was still like oh god that was really bad six nothing the final rangers just demolish the penguins they're going to be a tough wash man they're like they're they're in it and i think that was i think that was a pretty a pretty stark example there and it's not just that they lost six nothing i mean it's it's that they deserve to lose six nothing you have new york controlling uh controlling uh controlling expected goals basically six six six six see to 40 in all situations.

A danger chances are 22, 13. I mean, like, this is, this was an ass kicking in a lot of ways. And also, we saw some pretty serious mistakes by, by the penguins just in terms of, in terms of system stuff. So yeah, it's, uh, I think, I think anybody who paid close attention to this team over the last couple years was aware that it, that there was disaster potential here. And that's not this. And that's like, you know, it's not to say that we, we,

We don't want to burn the boats just yet. But like there's going to be bad nights for this team. Best case scenario. Because there's a lot of holes up and down that roster. The goalie is, the Tris and Jari is who he is, you know, the, he's. Two goals on first three shots he faced, by the way. Not tough to imagine a worse, a worse way to start things out. But also, you know, there's defensive issues.

There's all sorts of problems with it with Pittsburgh. And I think a lot of them, aside from just being old. And I think a lot of those were on display last night. Yeah. Wasn't a great game for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Great game for Anthony. Anthony Bavillier, by the way, on Sydney Crosby's wing. My buddy, my buddy Dan Hopper is a comedian in a podcast.

He's from Pittsburgh. He said this last night. Like, Bavillier immediately is in the, he's like already a Hall of Famer. Oh, yeah, Sydney Crosby played with this guy winger, right? He's had a lot of those over his career where when we're looking back on it, it's going to, hey, remember those. 36 games where Anthony Bavillier played on Crosby's wing. Like, yeah, you don't.

Okay, yeah, neither do I. He's got a lot of those. How long until Michael Bunting's there? Michael Bunting has looked good with Malkin, so I, to some extent. So I think he had some great a chances last night that he couldn't really, that he couldn't really capitalize on either. So I don't know. I'm not sure, I'm not sure how much you want to, how much you want to mess with that.

because, you know, your other geriatric center Hall of Fame needs some help too. And I think Malkin and Bunting have worked. Michael Bunning almost a point per game player after Pisbury required him last year. He was good. And a lot of that came Ryan shotgun with Malkin. So I wouldn't necessarily pull the plug on that just yet. I saw this from Steve Valicat yesterday.

The Rangers had 19 high danger chances against the penguin. And so Tristan Jari was an issue last night, but he wasn't the only issue with that Penguins roster. And the New York Rangers looked every bit apart of a Stanley Cup contender. And the Penguins couldn't look further from it. The other team that I, you know, we don't want to do day two overreactions, but I do think first impressions are important, right? And the first impression of the penguins was a sincere,

a sincere accidental overreaction to the penguin. first game. I'm ready to send them off. We've seen this for a couple years, though. Like, this isn't, this isn't just a day two overreaction. This is like, oh, this is how the penguin, this is who the penguins might be now. This isn't new. We saw this last season to the point where Tristan Jari didn't play a game for the final three weeks, the season, basically. Like, this isn't, this isn't news for the Pittsburgh Penguins. What I do think is interesting and we need to be careful of not overreacting is the Edmonton Oilers six nothing lost to the Winnipeg Jets last night. They were most people Stanley Cup picks. I know I picked Stuart Skinner last week

and our everything draft and he got pulled halfway through that game. Not a good start for me and Stu Skinner. It was definitely giving the same vibe as last season's Putrid start in Edmonton. But I think more than anything, everyone was picking the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup this year, or a lot of people were. But I also don't think anyone thought this was. a perfect roster by any means. And I think the concerns that people had with the Edminton-Euler's roster were on display last night. And so I think you don't overreact to that game, but I think it also is like, did we

maybe spend too much time thinking about the Cup finals and not enough time looking at the fact that Ty Emerson is the second pair right? Like, do we miss Cody Cici? It's day two and we're like, Cody Cici come back. You're talking crazy on. October. It is. It's something that people glossed over, including me, in some regards over the last few weeks when

you're talking about the Oilers, they're like, yeah, as long as, as long as Darnel nurse and Ty Emerson can stand up as a second pair and a good team, like they should probably be fine. Well, guess what? They didn't. It didn't. And not to overreact. Travis Dermit, you are on the second pair.

Oh, brother, right? Like so yeah, and everyone loves the top nine and it's cool that it's cool that Jeff Skinner is on the Oilers. And it's cool that Victor Arvinson's on the Oilers, but man, they have two and a half defensemen, it seems like. And, you know, expecting that it's a fine thing to pencil it in. They might have to move on to plan B. And they certainly will relatively quickly if Nurse and Emerson play the way they did. last night for any for any real amount of time yeah two goals against and then they got split up heading into the third period like i said travis dermot ended up on that second pair um bret coolack

and tie emberson were that with that third pair um scary yeah Stuart skinner got pulled halfway through like i mentioned five goals on 13 shots teams a little bit older a little bit slower uh and really inexperienced in terms of right-hand d on that depth chart like you've got Emerson and Travis Dermott basically are your number two and three on the right side, which is just not great. I don't think that changes anything in terms of the way I viewed the Oilers, though. They got creamed six nothing, but it's still the Oilers and they've still got this incredible talent, obviously, at the top of their lineup. But I definitely think it was like a humbling reminder of, oh, yeah, this is not a perfectly built roster. But I think that's what happens when you're going to be paying Connor McDavid and Leon Trisidal.

And I think a lot of that is what makes the top of the league pretty interesting is that even if the Oilers are your cup pick and even if they are number one in your statistical models projected standings, the 24, 25 season, still a lot of problems there. And that's true of the teams that are behind them as well. Like you look at all the consensus top five, top eight, top ten teams, it's easy to find warts. And it's easier this year, I think, than even in past ones. I said $25 million and I fear that's a gross underpayment. Considering dry sidles about to make $14 million. I should sign. I never shot it.

I think Edmonton. Signed McDavid for $11 million. Yeah. Right. 11.97 million. He's going to pull into. full-ended goofball Crosby mode. We'll see.

Okay, very quickly here. Two huge games on the West Coast after, I think, a stinker for the Oilers. These were the big ones. These were the 12-goal and 11 goal games. If everyone, for whoever stayed up to watch these, Vegas Golden Knights beat the Aves 8 to 4.

Calgary Flames beat the Canucks 6 to 5. The Vegas game, it was kind of just all the stars came out for it. you know, Miko Rannon has a hat trick, Nathan McKinnon and Kail McCar of multi-point games. And then for Vegas, Ivan Barbashev is four points, Jack Eichel, four points, Mark Stone is three points. Aiden Hill does well. Victor Allison scores twice in his debut. That was just a, I think, more than anything, that game was the model of what's going to work for the Golden Knights this season is you still got a good blue line and then just let your top line go to work, which is that Barbashev, Eichol.

Mark Stone combo. Like that right there, that's the Vegas golden nights this season. Aden Hill looks good. You got a good D. And just let your top line go to work in the offensive zone. So it happens when you lose Jonathan March so and to some extent, William Carrier and, you know, going back years, the brain drain on that, on that group of forwards. Like Riley Smith was a loss the season, but the season before last on and on. if it's so many guys, especially from that group of wingers that are that are elsewhere now, that in some regards, strong as they are down the middle, because we love, we love Jack Eichel, we love Tomas Schertl, I love William Carlson, right? These are, these are good players. There's so much production that they have to replace on on every side of every player that it's easy to doubt.

them. So they need guys. They need their stars to carry them. Absolutely. But they also need the Victor Olivesons of the world who comes over from Buffalo and he's like kind of a one dimension. He's like, you know, a power play guy and whatever. He's produced in some regards, but not in others. They need guys like that to step up even if they just do it in shifts, even if it's Victor Olives for six games and then it's Brennan Brisson for say or whatever. They need to find some way to replace some of that production in the aggregate, right? In the meantime, it's a lot easier to get dragged along when you have Jack Eichol and Tamash Hirtle and when you have that defense that they do. But absolutely. Like last night, that's like, that's how it's going to have to happen for them.

More often than not, for sure. Okay, the final game of the night, probably the most fun one of the night, at least the most chaotic and strange, I would say. The Vancouver Canucks came out and made the flames look like exactly who we thought they were heading into the season, right? That first period, it was all Vancouver. They had all the momentum. They were crushing them. J.T. Miller throws a reverse hit, gets into a fight with Anthony Manta. It was like four inches and 20 pounds on him.

I think that was a Canucks fan delight for is that the, right? Is that the J.T. Miller hat trick? That was the J.T. Miller and Anthony Manta, Gordy Howe. I was going to say, I was going to say score. like score a goal, lay down a reverse hit, and then get into a fight. And fight. That's the J.T. Miller hat trick, not the Gordyhow hat trick. Yeah, pretty much. But then the Calgary Flames come back. They take over. So the Canucks get out to a 4-1 lead, then the flames get to a 5-4 lead. J.T. Miller ties it up with about a minute and a half to go,

but then Conor Zeri basically skates through everybody, including the goalie and scores the OT winner, which was a great opening goal for him in that game. It was just like a fun, chaotic, weird game. I don't have any big brain takeaways or, like, overreactions to it because it doesn't change my opinion on the flames, doesn't change my opinion on the Canucks. It was just like, oh, what happened here?

No, no, no. I'm so glad that this happened. As a fan, like as a hockey fan, and not a fan of either team. I'm like, I'm really glad this game existed. I'm doing a full 180 now.

I think the flames are good and the Kinox are bad. They've done the freaky Friday swap after one game against each other. No, Geranzer had some big brain overreactions.

It was like, because he said it's, he's, he just said things squandered a dominant opening period. Oh, I saw him. I saw him tweet and he said

that it was one of the, it's, they're not. overreactions. He was like, that's one of the weirdest hockey games I've ever watched in my life. And it's true. Because it was. It was a big brain. That's what I just said. It was a wild first period. And then it was a wild second, third for completely different reasons. Those teams, man, well, that team, because I have no interest in watching the Calgary Flames for any protracted amount of time this season. The Canucks truly are going to continue being must-see television on the,

on the West Coast. I'm just continuously so thankful when teams like that exist. Because like I just want something weird to potentially fall asleep to when I'm watching these games at 12 o'clock or 1 o'clock on the East Coast. Sure. We love it. Thank you. Yeah. It was a chaotic and fun game. That was a, you know, 20 minutes talking about the games from last night. But it's early in the season. I feel like we can do that every once in a while. There was some good things to talk about. But Now we're going to take a break when we come back. We're going to get into the NHL contention cycle and mostly focusing on what teams are in their window of contention now, which team's window is potentially closing, and who are the teams that really need to.

And realistically could, that's the important part. And realistically could capitalize on their window of contention the most. We could say that the penguins need to win a cup now. I don't think they're going to. So who are the realistic upper bust teams in the NHL this season? That's coming up next on the Athletic Hockey Show. All right. We're back on the Thursday edition of the Athletic Hockey Show.

And we're going to be looking at the top five teams that need to and realistically can capitalize on their window of contention. As we mentioned in the first segment off the top of the show, this is coming off of the NHL contention cycle story that came out from Dom Lus Chishin. and Scott Wheeler on Thursday morning. And it's looking at where does each team stand now and in the future and combining Dom's model and how his model views each team and Scott's prospect here, which viewed who everyone kind of has coming up in the pipeline and the young players on their rosters now. And it was interesting because it ends up getting a nice little quadrant here.

We see the rebuilding teams. I'm kind of trying to dictate a visual, which is dumb. just find the graph if you are super interested in the entire cycle. But you basically have the bottom left corner, which is the teams whose window of contention is completely shut. And the rebuilding teams and the ones who are starting to move into rebuilding, when later, window open. This is a clock, basically.

Window open, window closing, went now mode. And in the middle there's no man's land. And it's just the Ottawa senators in there, unfortunately. Yeah, the way it helps me to think about this is that each team is basically graded on a one to 10 scale on two separate one to 10 scales. How good they are right now and how good they're potentially set up to be moving forward, right? So you have, yeah, you have those two sliding scales, which it's like if you're in the upper right, you're great. And if you're in the lower, the lower left, you're in big trouble. And then you just kind of move between those based on the quality of your current lineup and your, in your prospect pool.

I think for the purpose of this show, the ones that interest me the most are the teams in this kind of window closing and win now mode, right? Because I think there's teams whose contention window is wide open and we don't have any concern over them over the next three years, let's say. And I think that's the Dallas Stars. I don't think if the Dallas Stars don't win the Cup this year, everyone's like, well, there it goes. That was it for them. same with the New Jersey Devils. As much as we just poop-pood on the Oilers Blue Line, I think as long as Connor McDavid's the best player on earth,

that window of contention is going to be open for them. Although you could argue, I think fans would feel like, oh, another wasted year of Connor McDavid's Prime, but that's not the same as the window getting shut. I'm not worried about the Colorado Avalanche, although on this graphic it does put them kind of a little bit further down in the window closing mode.

I think I disagree with that a little bit. You can't, I know their prospect pool isn't great at the moment, whatever, but I think you can't underestimate Colorado as a destination for free agents. I think they've slid into that space that we've seen from, you know, Pittsburgh was it at one point where you have guys that are willing veterans who are willing to take a little bit less money and in cup chase. And that can be beneficial. So I, so it's, to me, it's less important that the abs or, you know, whatever, that they're, that their prospect group isn't all that great. So I think we've picked our top five teams that need to capitalize on this window for the season. And that is taking this graph into consideration,

but it's also us making a decision on who we think is more in a win now mode than somebody else. right. And so I think the first big debate almost comes with the Colorado Avalanche who are not in our top five, but on this chart, they are neck and neck with the New York Rangers. We don't see the Aves as a team that needs to win right now, but I do think that the New York Rangers are in that copper bust tier. And it's not so much that they're going to drop off a cliff, although maybe that is a concern for some people due to the age of some of their top players. But I think it's a little bit more about like the Aves have, won before. So it's not so much as this desperation of like we need to win with this core right now or we're never going to. And I think for the Rangers, I think even the Rangers are looking at this season as a bit of a cup or bust. Peter Baugh had a story that came out today. He was at the season opener in Pittsburgh and he's looking at what's at stake for the Rangers in 2024, 25. And it's the Stanley Cup. That's what they're looking at. If this Rangers team doesn't win, that's going to be a disappointing season. What do you think, Sean?

The only reason I'm hesitant to call that I'm remotely hesitant to call this a cup or bus season for them is because it felt like last season was too. And here we are talking about them again, right? Like Chris Jury ended up running it back in a way that maybe we didn't anticipate. But the difference here is that Igor Shusirkin is as of Thursday, October 10th at 1106 Eastern is unsigned. but for the for the for the for the for any season beyond the current one uh there's a candra there's a chandra miller contract to worry about there's no like cly lafranier contract to worry about chris criders in his 30s meek his ban of jedd is in his 30s you know you blink in this and art temi panera is going to be there soon too like these guys are these guys are getting

older in a meaningful in a meaningful way it's not just about uh some uncertainty about their contracts or their cap situation. It's that their best players are on the verge of aging out of elite status. And I don't know if Alexei Lafranian company is enough to, enough to keep that going. So yeah, it seems like they're at a crucial point with the one asterisk being they've been there for for a minute already. Over the past three seasons, only the Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche have won more regular season games.

The Rangers have won a president's trophy. They made two Eastern Conference finals in that span, but they have not won a championship. And this is a team that is very clearly in its window of contention, obviously. But they're also, I think, like a group that's been around long enough and has had sustained success long enough without reaching that ultimate goal. That's when you start to say, like, okay, is this going to be the year? Should it be the year?

And at what point is that drop off going to happen? So I think, and I think it was. was Adam Fox who said, you know, I think this year is a little bit of cup or bust for us. So we're going to listen to Adam Fox and we're going to put them in our top five cup or bus teams. I'm not panicking about the Rangers, but I do think, again, this is a core that we've been talking about that's had success in the regular season over the last few years, but they haven't gotten over the hump when it matters the most. And so that's why we think the Rangers, let's see it. I wouldn't hate it. I wouldn't hate seeing the Rangers win the Stanley Cup this season.

we mentioned Lafranier a bit already, but I want to bring him up again because I think he's fascinating. He could, and he could be in for a big season. We saw plenty from him down the stretch last year where he was truly one of the better offensive drivers at five on five in the league in terms of production, in terms of some of the stuff he was doing on the rush. I mean, this guy, this guy, the light bulb seemed to go off. right, where he is a dangerous offensive player moving forward.

Now, you don't want to mess with the power play mix there because it's been so good. So I don't know if, you know, I don't know if you can expect 85 points from Lexi Lafranier the season necessarily. But that guy over the last couple years has, he looks like a year from now. We could be talking about him as a true kind of cornerstone player, which is, which is really interesting given where he was a season or two back. I think best case scenario is that the Rangers have a built-in succession plan on the wing for Artemite Panarin potentially aging out. And that could be, okay, well, you just had one of the best players at that position for a long time. And he's turns 33 this month. But hey, guess what Alexi Lafranier is is reaching, you know, kind of heights. And he's being forecasted to, I don't think Alexi Lafranier is going to become Artemi Panera. And I think a lot of people got into trouble trying to forecast him as this. next generational talent.

And it has taken time and he has looked great. But I think best case scenario for the Rangers is that Lafranier can kind of take over a little bit of what they might lose in some of those stars who are aging out. And if that's, and if that happens, then, then the Rangers will continue to have elite players at all three positions. And that would keep this window of contention open longer and make this less of a cup or bust season. but at the same time, I don't think anyone in New York is going to think, now let's not win this year because we might be okay three years from now.

You know, and I think it's important to say they're not slipping out of the window open tier. No, they're like we're going to take their words for it. Like you said, like you said at the start, right? Like there's guys in that room are saying it feels like it's maybe cup or bust. Their general manager came real close to saying it last year. So, you know, take them at their word. And again, I think if you have the Rangers and the aves in the same tier and looking at the same spot, I think the team that probably has the most pressure is the team that hasn't won yet. Although I think if you ask Nate McKinnon, they want to win again, right?

Another thing to mention, like, we don't have the Carolina Hurricanes in this top five because I think they've kind of slipped out of, I think they're, I think last year was the cup or bust moment for the canes, right? Like I think the canes have slipped out of the, this team needs to win now. I think they probably still are in that group. I just don't think they're top five for me. What do you think about the canes? I just, they're not in like a window opening, window open, window closing. Like they're almost starting to slide closer into no man's land than anything. This is a big year for them because of the forwards at the top of the lineup.

Like we're similar to what we said about Lafranier, Seth Jarvis, huge step forward last year, right? Like he looks like a legitimate high end two-way forward. The next step for him is being a point producer on a top line. And is it, are they going to load up? Is it going to be Ahos, Fetchnikov, Seth Jarvis? Like, I don't know. Let's see.

Because they're going to, they need more offensive production. It's the same stuff we've said about them for, for years going back. because like you need dudes to score goals. And I like the idea of Aho Svfeshnikov Jarvis. And I'm going to be interested to see how much of that we get as a line over the course of the regular season. But if that works, you know, you're talking about guys, especially in Svetikov and Jarvis, who were still, who were still pretty young, right? So if that works out and that seems like a true building block top line moving forward,

then I think stuff falls into place a lot easier for them. But yeah, I don't, I feel like for our purposes, they're. They're not in this group of five. Yeah, because I think we mentioned them as one of the teams that has more wins in the regular season. Then the New York Rangers, they also haven't gone the distance. They also haven't been able to win, but this is also a team that lost significant star power through the lineup. So it's hard to look at. I think we talked about this a lot in the previews, and I didn't even mean to ramble about the canes,

but this is almost a transitional year for the team, right? and looking at here are some of the players that they brought in. Let's see if it works. And maybe let's talk more about the Canes next season. But then maybe they're going to prove us wrong because that's what they do. Everyone likes to doubt the Carolina hurricane. So we'll see. Let's talk about one more team.

And I think it's an obvious one. Shocking. It's the Toronto Maple Leafs. This is, I feel like it's always cup or bust with the fan base. It's cup or bust for Frank Salvean. by the way, I think the funniest moment. I watched the Leafs game with my dad last night.

And the Oliver Ekman-Larsen breakaway attempt. You know, this is what in the third period? It's late in the third. It was a five-month-three. Dad already taken a little nap at some point. You know, it's late in the day. He's getting sleepy. But he was wide awake for the Ekman-Larsen breakaway attempt.

Really got him sat out of the lazy boy chair. It was like, oh, here we go, here we go. Oh, oh. Not the guy you want, not the guy you necessarily want with a stick on his puck on a, on a five on three. God bless. God bless Oliver Ekman-Larson, but there's other dudes on that roster. I think you'd rather see it in that position. Frank Salvean was so excited for two seconds.

So, John of Maple Leafs. Fair to say that this is, they have to capitalize on this window right now? I think so. I mean, I think when you look at the Marner contract situation, you look at the possibility that another, you know, playoff failure is going to result in more, like are we going to be talking about Brennan Chanahan at some point during the season, probably so.

I think there's, you know, the level of drama and the level of underachievement, frankly, that's gone on over there over the last five years is it weighs heavy. on everything, right? So yeah, if it doesn't work this year, it's going to be Austin Matthews in William Nealander and who else? Does Tavares move out? Does Marner go elsewhere?

I mean, there's plenty, there's plenty at stake for them. I know that's like, I know that's like a really, it's really controversial stance to take, but I'm brave in that way to say that this is, that this is a very important year for the core of the Toronto Maple Leafs. the spotlight's going to be on the core for this season. You heard it here first folks. I hate the term core four for them.

I hate it. Yeah, it's super funny. Something about it just bothers me because it like implies that they've done something to deserve being known. It's because you're from Pittsburgh and the big three actually did something. Correct. I am nothing if not a hater. And that's what's on display here.

Do you remember the three-headed monster graphics that they used to? to do with like Crosby, stall and Malkin all on like a dragon? Yeah, shout out the Paul Stigerwald for really pushing that hard for a few years. It was never quite goodbye that one. Didn't really like the visual personally. No, thank you. I think a big thing for the Leafs, obviously, is William Nealander, at least in the player tiers, right?

He moved up into Tier 2 this year, so that realistically has the Leafs with three legitimate franchise players. I think Nealander has proven himself over the last few years is the guy who can kind of step up with the pressure. He was also such a star in the Amazon Prime show. Yeah, which is definitely good for probably 10 or 15 more points this season, right?

Yeah, what's the conversion rate? Prime Doc boost anyways. I think if the Leafs can't get it done with a leveled up Neelander and a new coach, Chris Tannave looked good and as advertised in his first game not to overreact, but everyone on this show knows that I'm a Chris Tenev,

truther. But like Morgan Riley, Chris Tannav and John Tavares aren't getting any younger either. And those are still pieces of the court, really critical positions. And the goaltending thing is still a huge question mark. Joseph Wall already hurt. They say it's precautionary,

but he's on IR, which means he's going to be on that for seven days. Stolars looked good in his debut. I think, obviously, it's just a big year for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Same core. I think it's what nine years of Austin Matthews. It's repulsive. In the NHL.

Ancient. So something's got to give. You've got to get further than the second round in almost a decade with this core that was supposed to be it for you. You don't have to. Pretty simple. Anyways, we're going to take a break. We've got our final three teams that need to capitalize on their

of contention this season coming up next on the athletic hockey show. Sean, let's start with the Tampa Bay Lightning. This is an interesting team to talk about because I think a lot of people are looking at this as a dynasty that's starting to slow down or time is catching up to the dynasty. Obviously, they've already had success, but this is a monumental change that's coming for the Tampa Bay Lightning this season. no Stephen Stamcoast, Victor Headman's the new captain, you have Jake Gensel,

Andre Vasselisky's getting older, et cetera, et cetera. Their present outlook still looks pretty good this season, honestly, and they're better this year than they would have been otherwise because of bringing in Jake Gensel. Right. So I think that

gooses them up a little bit. It certainly does. I know God knows. I know how Dom's model projects things. that makes things rosier for Tampa, replacing Steven Sam Coase with Jake Gensel. Hard to argue otherwise. But if we're talking about teams that are like where this might be it for them, I think you need to have them in the discussion in some regard because of Victor Headman,

getting older, removing the Victor Headman succession plan in Mikhail Sergachev, right? so they don't have, it's not just that headman, you know, at some point in the relatively not too distant future is going to stop being an alpha dog defense minutes that you don't have, you know, the younger dude who's, is going to be ready to take some of the minutes and and, and, uh, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, yeah, I mean, we're, again, we're going to, we're talking about a bunch of really good forwards who are, who are, how old is Nikita Kutrave?

I think he's 31. So he's not even that far. He's not really that far onto the wrong side of 30 when we're talking about aging players. It makes me feel freaking ancient. I think what makes Tampa interesting is they have this new injection of Jake Gensel. And I don't think anyone's afraid of Nikita Kutra falling off cliff either. So it's almost like,

More so with the Tampa Bay Lightning is the question for Tampa is like how how much is their window actually closing now that they made this change. I think they'd be further down in the window closing slash win now graphic if it was Stephen Stamco's. And this was what makes, so Nashville's the other team in this conversation, right? We can spoil that. And I think what is an interesting conversation is like would Stephen Stamcoes have had a better show? at winning a Stanley Cup with the Nashville Predators or the Tampa Bay Lightning. And I think it's the Tampa Bay Lightning. I think

Tampa is further in the window open part of the chart than Nashville is. Nashville is like a win now team. If you don't win now, like Lord knows what's going to happen. Right? Like that team is built to win in the next year or two. And we don't even know if they can, right? We're just saying this team

has been built in a way with a bunch of veteran players. And if UC Soros can have a great season and everything can come together, maybe this can be a really fun, shocking victory. You have some of those sometimes, right? Whereas Tampa is a little bit more of a contender for another few seasons. I don't think the lightning are going to drop off a cliff the way some people think they will because of the Jake Gensel edition.

And I think, I just think people forget that Nikita Kutrov, like, outscored Connor McDavid last season. And people, I don't, I don't know if people are actually watching the Tampa Bay Lightning all the time. And, like, Braden Point still exists, guys. Like, this is a, I think it's a pretty good team. The issue with Tampa is just been watching them for so long that it's like, oh, they're going to fall off a cliff eventually. Well, they haven't. And they just got a refresher. The first line's sick.

Those guys are going to be great and they're going to be better with Jake Ansel because Jake Ansel is a plus five on five players still. And he's good defensively. And he just seems like he can, he can mesh with anybody he plays with, let alone ultra elite guys like Nikita Kutcher. of, right? So I'm, you know, whatever. I'm not going to sit here and act like Nikita Kutrov's going to fall off a cliff when the year he turns 32 years old. That's not going to happen. They have great players. I worry that they don't have enough good ones behind them. And I don't, in their cap situation is such that it could be a challenge to reload that supporting cast in time for Nikita Kutrov and Brain Point and whatever.

because if it takes another season or two or three to get the second and third line in the bottom two pairs back up to like true contender status because they're short right now. They have Brennan Hagel is a good player. Anthony Sorrelli, you know, maybe he's not your ideal to see, but you know, he's good enough. Beyond them, they do not have playoff caliber depth like really anywhere. Yeah, I think their core. I think the core of that team is scary. They're going to have a chance based on the core, but the supporting cast, man,

it makes me nervous, not just for this year, but for three years down the road. And I think that's what puts them in the top five kind of win now, or capitalize on this window of contention teams, because I do think all the years of them going for it will catch up to Tampa, right? And I think I will always respect Breezebois for spending

to beef up a team that can win, right? That's what we've talked about this on the show. So many times Jim Rutherford did it. You understand the gift. You spend like, who cares about the draft when you can win a Stanley Cup? And I will always respect GMs for doing that. The present outlook of the Tampa Bay Lightning because of the moves that Breezebaugh has made,

like makes this team interesting in terms of this season, but in terms of their future outlook, it's not great. Let's move on to the Nashville Predators. Also, I've like weirdly taken Tampa as my team that I'm like going to scream at you and Max about all season, I think, like I did with Winnipeg. Right. Because for whatever reason, you have it in your head that because you like a team that we don't.

So you guys did not like the Winnipeg Jets last season. Well, we were actually proven correct there. So doesn't matter. They're my guy. It's us being very, very, like, past aggressively being like, yeah, yeah, we like the Jets. Jets are, like, good for the, good for the Jets. We're doing like little headpats on the, on them. And it turned, we turned out to be correct in our.

analysis. Doesn't matter. I've gotten really weirdly bullish on the Tampa Bay Lightning this season. Yeah, it's really, really courageous for you to pick the team with a guy who had 150 points last year. Okay. I just don't think we're talking about the lightning enough. Okay,

the Nashville Predators. This is the team, at least in terms of the story from Dom and Scott. They are the only team that is like squarely in the wind now quadrant, a little square, right? because of the future outlook is not great. They definitely have an older core group,

but they have an older core group with enough there that could maybe make some toys and make things fun and interesting. But once that core group is gone, I don't think the Preds have a whole lot. But I like them as a win now team. I like placing them there because the future outlook is not good.

But also what is like kind of crappy is that their present outlook is also not great. Yeah, because Tommy Novak is there too, like, like I just can't, I can't get on board. I'm sorry. This is where the, and have to capitalize and have the ability to capitalize is like doing, isn't doing as much work as it should. I don't think they're like in the Pittsburgh Penguins class of like, yeah, they should try to win this year, but they definitely won't. Like they're not, they're not, they're not down there. But I just don't, I don't see it.

I look at the center depth chart, and I'm just like, this isn't, like, whatever, make it in. The power play is going to be wild. I know everybody on it's right handed. So we'll see what happens there.

You know, maybe UC Soros goes unconscious for three weeks and something crazy happens. But on merit, I just, I can't get there with them. I think the predators look scarier than they have in a few years because of some of the changes

and players that Barry Trots have brought in, but this is still a team with core players that are in their 30s, Roman Yossi, Philip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly, Stephen Stamcoast. I just think the Preds are going to be, like, if they're going to win a Stanley Cup in the next five years, it has to be now,

unless Barry Trots is going to do some, like, ungodly retool on the fly, which maybe he can. He's been very fun to watch as a general manager. They were way towards the top of the, the Hopometer, by the way. That fan base is like about that team. Like, understandably, I love it.

I love teams trying to be good, even if it's, or trying to be great, even though sometimes it might not work. Yeah. Let's go to our final team. It's the Vegas Golden Knights. Who wins a series between the Nashville Predators and the Vegas Golden Knights? Which team actually has a better present outlook this season between Nashville and Vegas? You just made me, I want that to happen.

And that's for sure. I wanted to happen for real just to see how it plays out. I got to go Vegas, but probably it's probably closer than you think. I'm very nervous about where the goals are going to come from for them. I think they've lost so much talent on the wings over the last couple of years that it makes me nervous. Wait, you're saying Vegas would beat Nashville? I'm saying they would be my pick, but it's probably closer than it's certainly closer than I would have anticipated. anticipated a year or two ago. Yeah.

I think I would go with Nashville. It's totally justifiable. I think they've got Roman Yossi, U.C. Soros, who are like top tier or tier two players, Philip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly was solid last season, Stephen Stamcoast, Jonathan Marchiso, and Brady Shea. I like that team. Me too. More than I think I like Vegas.

So that's what makes those two teams quite interesting in this like when now. area because I think both of them probably need to win now because of the cores that they have, but also their future outlooks aren't great. Like the Vegas Golden Knights don't really have a future outlook at all. No. Or so than Nashville. So I would almost argue that Vegas should be further into the you have to win now. They're an interesting balance, I guess, because Vegas's core is maybe a little bit younger,

so to speak, because you have a Noah Hanofin in there and Jack Eichel's not like 34 years old. Like Jack Eichel is not Stephen Stamco's. Mm-hmm. But their future is so much worse that you have these two teams in this really interesting place in terms of like who actually needs to win right now.

I think they're both teams that have shown especially like because we need to think of Barry Trots in this way. And you mentioned this or alluded to this earlier. These are two teams that it seems like maybe their windows are closing at the moment, but Nashville needs to be taken seriously as a team with a GM who's willing to shake stuff up. And we know that Vegas is there as well, too. So, like, they're not going to just let the window, the window shut,

even though it seems like it might. Yeah. I think they're both playoff caliber teams for sure. that need to capitalize on their window of contention because of their future outlook. I think that's what I was trying to get across. I think most of the other teams on this list are teams that realistically could win because of the players that they have, right? Whereas I think Nashville and Vegas are more in the dark horse vibe,

but their playoff caliber teams, not necessarily cup contenders, but they need to be the latter because of their future outlook. Their current rosters are probably a step behind a lot of these other teams and their future outlook is significantly worse. I think that's where we're at on it for sure. And that's what places them in this top five. They need to win. All right.

So I think that brings us to the end of the show. We wanted to only do the top five and not talk about all 32 teams and what's at stake for all of them. Because unfortunately, for some of them, there's nothing at stake. And that's okay. Have a good season. Grow where you need to internally reflect and just have fun. And that brings us to the end of the athletic hockey. Hey, that's good, that's good life.

That's good life advice. It's not just hockey advice. Yeah. Take a deep breath and just grow. Thanks, everyone for listening to The Athletic Hockey Show. The Tuesday Boys are making a comeback just for a special edition. That's, that's right. Sean Gentile, Craig Custin's special edition of the show on Canadian Thanksgiving.

That's Monday on the Athletic Hockey Show. I think it's because Craig Custin has a book coming out. I don't know if you've heard. unfortunately I'm going to be running to the nearest Indigo not Barnes and Noble

Indigo in Canada to be purchasing Craig's book the name of which I don't recall but I'm very excited for it you should just go and be just like hey where's Craig Custin's new book and see people say

who is that and you'll say this is an outrage yeah good question I've actually never heard of them. And then Max and Laz with LeBron and Granger. Geez. Wow.

How come we can't get that many people on our show? I don't think anyone likes us very much. That's going to be back on Tuesday. And then you'll have more Sean on Wednesday and Thursday next week. Thanks everyone for listening.