The Athletic Hockey Show - Top 5 NHL storylines for the home stretch

Episode Date: February 24, 2025

As the NHL season heads towards the playoffs, and with the trade deadline quickly approaching, the guys break down the biggest storylines to watch down the home stretch. First, The Athletic’s NHL insider Pierre LeBrun on whether the Canes could actually flip Mikko Rantanen at the deadline, Seth Jones’s trade request, and more. Plus, The Athletic’s own Jesse Granger lays out his goaltending storylines to follow and the latest Vezina odds to close the show.Hosts: Max Bultman and Mark LazerusWith: Pierre LeBrun and Jesse GrangerExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus for another episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. We are also joined by our NHL insider, Pierre Lebrun, who just got back from the Four Nations, Pierre. Welcome back. Good to be back. Yes, I put my insider hat on hold for two weeks and focused on Four Nations. And now today, as soon as we get off this call, I'll put my insider hat back on. I wanted to ask you about that, Ashley, do you, like during Four Nations, are you just

just completely unplugging from that part of your job? Are you seeing GMs there? Are you talking about this stuff? Are the GMs talking to each other? Or did everybody just kind of go on pause for a while? Yeah, I mean, listen, there were several GMs part of both Team USA and Team Canada, but it really was across the league, very quiet, as you saw, a lot of teams unplugged and sort of respected the league showcase event.

And that's why you didn't see it a lot. And you could feel it. You know, I got the odd text here and there, but generally speaking, everyone was pretty grossed in the Four Nations and there wasn't a whole lot of business happening. I think that's probably good for the league to just keep all eyes on this great tournament that's unfolding the way it did. It also probably helped that some of the biggest names we may see move between now and March 7, already got moved before the tournament started. I kind of wonder, like, are we even going to see a deadline of the same sizzle, I guess, for lack of a better word this year, with how much we saw leading up to the Four Nations? Yeah, it doesn't feel like it right now. I mean, obviously the volume always ends up there just because teams want to add depth.

But if you're talking about bigger names, it doesn't feel like it's going to be one of those crazy years. Things can change, but, you know, that's sort of the sense that certainly we had coming out of the break here. So we'll see what transpires. I know that some teams we're viewing this week as pretty important as to whether their team was going to hang in. the race. It seems crazy every year that two or three games can make that big of a difference in Pioneer selling, but that's what the NHL is. So I would think that by the end of this week, you might start seeing things. Let's talk a little bit about one of the guys who was traded already, Miko Ranted. There's a lot of speculation out there that because he hasn't already

signed the inevitable eight-year deal, that he could be flipped again before March 7th. I wrote about Miko last week, and my sense is that he's just like, it's been a crazy whirlwind here. You know, I had like a week with the team. We were on the road and then I had four nations. Give me a week to think about this before I decide on my, you know, the next eight years of my life. Is that the sense you're getting from Carolina? I mean, is this speculation warranted?

Is there any chance that Carolina doesn't make a run at him? So I think that the speculation has been a little premature. But at the end of the day, what the question that other teams are asking is, what is Tom Dundon? And yes, I'm just going to go right to the owner. What is Tom Dundon going to do? if Brandon isn't extended by March 7th. I think that's why it's out there.

What I think is ridiculous to me in terms of asset management is even if he's not signed by March 7th, did you not make this trade because you're a cup contender and you're willing to just have an eye-in rental in a way? I mean, that was a sense I got when I interviewed Eric Tulski after the trade. Yeah, they want to sign him, but they're also going for it. And if he walks July 1st, then they got more cap room to play with them. They can be aggressive. So I'm a bit puzzled by why all this has to be decided by March 7th. I mean, obviously there's this, you know, very difficult possibility of trading him

to the team where he signs an eight-year deal with that team. Because trade deadline is really the deadline for any team to get eight years on him, other than if he stays in Carolina, they've got until June 30th. But, you know, it just seems odd to me that if you end up moving him, are you really recouping an asset of the value of our Nietzsche's and all this for Carolina? Like, I don't think so. Especially not if he's dealt as a rental. So now, I know that in looking into this over the weekend, my sense is Carolina has not picked up the phone and called any team about Randon.

that they very much remained focused on trying to sign him and extend him over the next two weeks. But I just think, like, I think they're one of the smarter front offices in the league and if they end up flipping him for lust and what they were willing to trade for him,

it just seems odd, I guess, to me. But, you know, Tom Dunden is an emotional owner at times and maybe he gets frustrated that he couldn't extend him by March 7. We'll see. But then again, maybe they will sign him. Here's a question I had on that. And I don't know if it's more about Dundon or if it's about Tulski. But we've seen, you know, Carolina has one of the best internal cap structures, I think, of any team in the league.

They got a real low, tight ceiling. Everyone's kind of right around under nine and a half where Sebastian Ajo's at. Do you think it'd be a problem for them to have a guy in the territory that we all expect Miko Raton is going to get high 12s into the 13s, maybe even higher than that approaching Leon Drysettle? You think that's a problem for a team that has a pretty tight internal caps. structure? I don't think so because I think what you tell everyone else is, hey, the league just announced these new cap numbers the next three years and we're entering a whole new orbit and that changes everything. So it really comes down to percentage of cap more than the actual

AED. That works two ways. The agents love to use that, but sometimes teams can use that too in terms of explaining to other players why suddenly a guy is making money. I mean, the world's changing, right? There's a higher cap number coming and everyone's getting a raise. If they're a free agent at the right time over the next couple of years. So I don't think that matters. I think it's, you know, he's a special player. He's a top 10 player in the world. Averickains have been after a player like this for a long time. And I'm sure Sebastian Ajo is not too, too bothered by it, right? He's probably one of the guys who wants Rantan. He's making 9.75 is the exact number there. If Rantan is making 3 million more than him or more, he's probably one of the people who's most excited to have Miko Rantan

in the picture. Yeah, he'd be his biggest. Julia, for sure. That question. Yeah, I'll be, I mean, again, like I said at the outset, I question the logic in trading him, even if he's not signed. I don't really understand. The idea to me and why I love the trade is that you got a chance in a wide open east to go win it. So why are you getting rid of that player just because you can't sign it? That just smells of a frustrated owner to me as opposed to smart management.

Yeah, I think we're hearing, I think it's other teams wondering this openly more than it is Carolina entertaining the possibility of it. That's that's that's that's kind of the sense I get. You mentioned the cap going up with Seth Jones, you know, requesting not demanding, but requesting a trade out of Chicago wanting to go to a contender. Does the rising cap make his $9.5 million contract movable or is that still, you know, the hawks are going to have to retain an awful lot because I know I know the hawks aren't retaining 50% on that, but uh, 9.5.5. million even with a rising cap that's a lot of money yeah and i love the semantic of that it not asking for a trade i'm just uh you know i want politely to get the hell out of here but but i love chicago and i love fans um yeah that's a tough contract the move i know that set drones as agent papershan has been working with l davidson the hawks gm for three weeks now on this trying to find a solution um and i think I think the hawks would have to retain to be able to move him. I was talking to a GM yesterday who does not have interest, but we just generally wanted to get his view on Jeff Jones,

who, you know, he's a super guy and fits into any room because he's, he approaches the game the right way and he's a leadership guy, but his skills have eroded a bit, and he just doesn't view him higher than a three or four, second-parent guy. That's a lot of money for a second-parent guy. But as he said, if the Hawks bring that AEV down, then he becomes a second pairing guy at the right AEV. So that's really what it comes down to.

I just don't know. I guess if you're the Hawks, retaining money obviously improves the actual return because at the outset of this deal, there is no return really here. You're just trying to get rid of the contract. But if you're willing to retain, is the financial gamble here, we actually get something back. So we'll see where that goes. Don't forget, he's got a full no move and he wants to go to a contender. So I would imagine the list is very minimal, actually, in terms of things they're actually talking to. If you could retain two to two and a half million on that, you know, it's a lot of money.

It's a lot of years more than anything. But you start to get into that $10 to $12 million range. And we see what $10 to $12 million of cap purchasing, I guess, gets you in a return in these deals. And that's typically been pretty good territory when you get up into those double-dense. digits. Yeah. No question. But again, I think what you've got to gauge you for Chicago is eventually you're going

to start paying some of your younger core. And we know what name comes to the forefront, but it's not just him. I mean, you know, now the cap is going up. So maybe there's more and more flexibility there. It's a fascinating exercise, to be honest. You don't tend to see a lot of retaining on multi-year deals. You tend to see retaining on expiring contracts. The weird twist in this one is the Blackhawks need to get to the cap floor as much as

anything these next couple of season that they move, even if it's just $7 million of Seth Jones, they're going to have to spend that somewhere else. Like, Seth Jones is not blocking anybody right now. They need Seth Jones's contract to get to the floor. So I wonder how long this drags out. Yeah. And listen, we saw Chicago try to spend the last summer. They ran on Jake Gensel, as you guys have talked about, didn't end up getting him.

But so, yeah, I mean, and they remain, despite the long rebuild, they remain an attractive market, a place where players want to play and live. So I don't think they'll have a hard time spending money when the time is right. But yeah, it's kind of ironic that I think the team that probably wouldn't make a lot of sense for Seth Jones is actually Columbus because they have cap room and they know him, but I don't know if you can go back. I would think Dallas is a team, my guess is that Seth Jones would love to go to. a contender, a team with injuries, a team with LTIR, flexibility, but again, I have what number.

And his hometown, too. Right, exactly. And, you know, the challenge for Dallas would be sure they can make it work this year because of the LTIR flexibility. But that's a contract with numerous years, Jamie Ben's UFA, Y Johnson's an RFA. There's some salary cap juggling there in Dallas post this season, but not in the moment. All right. Thanks so much, Pierre, for joining us. As always, you can read him on The Athletic and watch him on TSN. We're going to take a quick break. We'll be right back. All right. We are back. And, Laz, today we're going to talk about our top five storylines for the rest of the season. There's, for most teams between 25 and 27 games left in the regular season. I call that the home stretch. I think that's fair.

And you put together a nice list of the five biggest storylines that we're watching down the stretch. Number one, I think is the most timely. So let's just start with number one. We won't do a countdown here. We're going to go in order. Number one, the Ovechkin chase of Wayne Gretzky's goals record comes on the heels of a hat trick last night. Why is this the best storyline in the league for you? Well, I mean, it's no matter what you think of Alex Ovechkin, we're watching history, and what he's doing is nothing short of extraordinary.

He's 39 years old. And I think he's scoring at the third best pace of his career. This is the greatest goal scorer we've ever seen. And he's doing this at age 39. And, you know, he's what, he had a hat trick. yesterday, another empty netter, king of empty net goals, but hey, Wayne Gretzky was number two. Nothing wrong with that. It's just, he just keeps doing it.

And it's hilarious. I don't know how many Washington games you watch, but like, there are some shifts where Alex Ovechkin doesn't move. Like, he barely skates some shifts anymore. He just sits there and he waits and he waits and he waits and then the puck comes to him and bam, it's in the net. It's kind of incredible how he's kind of like reinvented himself. This guy used to be like a human wrecking ball and he's almost reinvented himself as this

like specialist and nobody can stop him. He just keeps doing it. No matter how old he gets, he just never lost that shot. And he's probably going to do it this year. I know the math says that he'll do it against the Blackhawks on April 4th. Cool by me. I'll be at that game. I would love to have something to write about that night because it's getting hard on

the Blackhawks beat to find things to write about every night. But the fact that he's going to do it this year, despite breaking his leg, it's just, it's an incredible story. Well, you can put me down for the finale April 17th at Pith. I think that's the best occasion for him to break that record against the penguins against Sidney Crosby. In Pittsburgh, no, don't you? Don't you kind of? I mean, the, what's hilarious.

The capitals have built like their entire franchise around this chase, right? Like, that's been the only goal for years now. The fact that they're the best team in hockey right now is just, it's, it's crazy that it's happening. And he's actually like, these are meaningful goals he's scoring. Yes. And I actually think that's one of the things that's allowed this to come so easily for I don't know if we said this on a podcast before, if you and I were talking off here or anything,

but I think the fact that the capitals are good and that's the focus has allowed freer chase of this. Like if this was becoming the whole story in Washington, I think the pressure of that and the eyeballs of that get to a place where it's, you know, teams can really just focus on, oh, all we've got to do is shut down this guy, right?

The fact that they're a good team, I think, frees him up to score these goals and to have a night like that. And like you said, not always the most, a puck dominant goals or anything, which I guess has never necessarily been all he needed to do. But I think that's helped it a lot. I think the fact, too, that they're good, it makes it more meaningful. Because if they score, if he gets this record and then it's like, okay, and now the season's over, that's tough. It's very meaningful no matter what, but each one of these goals is coming in games that matter. It allows the locker room vibe around that to be, you know, everyone's got a

stake in what's happening. You're all winning these games. It's not just, yeah, we're all here to watch one guy chase Wayne Gretzky. So I think that's one of the best things that could have happened to the Capitals and to Alex Ovechkin is that this team is good during this chase. Yeah, this could have absolutely turned into a circus if they were bad. Like, if they were just an also-ran and all that mattered were the Ovechkin goals. And every time the other team pulled their goalie, pulled their goalie, you throw Ovechkin over the boards. It starts looking almost unseemly. But empty-net goals matter. Those are game-enders. Those are game clinchers. So it doesn't seem like a bad idea to throw your best goal score out there every time there's an empty net.

And when he scores, it's cause for celebration, not for eye rolling. It's a big deal because that ends the game. So like it's, it's, it's really, like you said, it's deferred the attention to the rest of the team a little bit. And it's just allowed him to play. I mean, this is a guy who's always been at his best when the games matter the most. You know, he's, he might be a compiler in some senses, but he's always been a big time goal score. And it's, it's been fun to watch. And, you know, it seems like the league's getting behind it, you know, is a big week for I'm here Putin, there's a lot going on right now. I remember when Ovechkin signed this contract, you could kind of do the math in your head,

and it kind of looked like it was timed up for the contract to end in the exact season that he was going to break this record. Now it kind of looks to your point like he's going to do it this season with still another year on there. We're not worried about him retiring, though, if he gets the record this season as a result, or is that in the back of your mind at all? I don't know, man. He's scoring a 0.7 goals my game. I think he's going to want to keep going and see if he can get to a thousand at this. Laz wants to get him another contract here.

I don't know. If you were Washington and he wanted to play, you'd have to give him the contract, right? Yeah, I think you probably have to do it. You can't just let him leave at 40 years old. And that would be bad for the whole league, for sure. Yeah. Yeah.

Like, maybe if he didn't already have a Stanley Cup, then it becomes a Ray Bork situation. Ring chasing, yeah. The fact that he already has the cup, this is all that matters now is, well, I mean, it's not all that matters. He wants to win again, obviously. But, like, you know, you can focus on this,

and it doesn't become a, side show. It just, it becomes part of the narrative. That's all. I mean, they're going to be the runaway number one seed in the east and very well could be the president's trophy winner this season. It's pretty wild. And again, we've talked about this a lot this year. You look at them on paper and this team should not be where it's at. They are playing so well as a team that it's starting to look pretty sustainable, right? We're two thirds the way through the season and they're still doing it. So whatever they're doing is working. You've got guys playing above their heads or having career years, guys like Dylan Strom, Ovechkin, obviously, Logan Thompson, like this, who knows, the East is

wide open, like we were talking about with Pierre and the hurricanes. Anyone can come out of the East right now. Like, why not Washington? Six weeks after my presentation, Laz is finally in on the capitals with me. I'm not. I'm still like, I mean, I can't get past the skepticism, but I mean, at some point, I look pretty stupid. Just like I did with, you know, how many times I talk about Jordan Bennington over the last

six months? Like, oh, Canada can't win with Jordan Bennington. Jordan Bennington, no way. And then it goes, yes, like the best. overtime I've ever seen the goalie have and wins the championship. So maybe, maybe, just maybe, Max, I don't know what the hell I'm talking about. Listeners, go ahead and clip that and go ahead and send that back to Las whenever you need to. Let's move on to our number two best storyline for the rest of the year.

And that is the East race, although not at the top of the East. We're talking about the East Wildcard Race. There's a lot of teams here that we've been waiting to see breakthrough, Ottawa, Detroit, but the best story of all, Laz is the Columbus Blue Jackets and whether they can get in. Yeah, I was in Columbus on Saturday for the Blackhawks Blue Jackets game, and it's pretty incredible what's happening there. I mean, the fact that they're in this race at all, given all they've been through, obviously the loss of Johnny Goddrault could have just,

I mean, it did destroy the locker room, but it also kind of seemed to galvanize them in some way. Boone Jenner, their captain just returned this weekend. He hadn't played a game all year. They're just, you know, Zach Worensky is becoming a superstar. He's a legitimate Norris candidate. He's up there with Quinn Hughes and Cal McCarr. And just the, I mean, it's, Johnny Godreau kind of hovers over this whole thing, right?

Like everything, I would have liked to have seen more of the four nations been about Johnny Godro, but in Columbus, it is all Johnny Godro. And, you know, on Saturday, Meredith and Johnny Goodro Jr. were at the game. It was Johnny Godro Jr.'s first birthday. The entire crowd sang happy birthday to him. I mean, it was like the sweetest and saddest thing I've ever seen in my life. I mean, it's just, it just drives home. how unlikely everything that is happening in Columbus this year is. And what an amazing story.

Like, there's nobody in hockey short of maybe Red Wings fans and Senators fans and Rangers fans trying to get that last playoff spot that could not be pulling for the Columbus Blue Jackets right now. I mean, it would just be an extraordinary story for this team to have a playoff run after everything they've been through. And the fans, God knows the fans deserve it. The breakout young players in Columbus, too, have been really impressive. I mean, what you've seen out of a Kent Johnson, Carill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli's turned it on.

They've had these young pieces, and we've been waiting in Columbus for a long time to see, you know, young centers specifically emerge. I know, you know, Fantilli obviously is the great hope for that. But I think the fact that it's being driven by these young players is hope that this might not just be a flash on the pan there either. No, there's a lot of talent on this team. Kent Johnson's fabulous to watch. And Fantili is going to be a real nice player. Marchenko is a point-to-game guy. Cole Cillinger, you know,

he can still be something significant. He's the number two center right now, I think. There's a lot to like on that team. They built it the right way, and that's, you know, people always overlook Columbus and Columbus always gets crap because players always seem to want to leave Columbus. But it's a good market. It's a great fan base.

It's a good arena. Every time I'm at a game there, it's pretty much a sellout. The fans are into it. They're smart. They understand what's going on. You want to see good things happen to that fan base. and it's building. I mean, it's, it, the loss they suffered on and off the ice is, is impossible to measure. But they are building something really positive there.

It's a great culture and it's a great vibe there happening right now. And it feels like they have something to play for. You mentioned Kent Johnson there. And at the start of the year, Corey had his U23 list come out. And I pushed back at him a little bit. I was like, you got Ken Johnson really high for a guy who had, you know, 16 points in 42 games last year. like is there's is it time to like update this a little bit and he he said no like he thinks it's coming and look where he's at ken johnson near a point per game i'll say the shooting percentage

pretty high 23% is probably not going to keep up the whole season here but ken johnson's been outstanding and has made me eat my words for sure all right number three on your list las we just talked about a little bit miko ranning and carolina how do how do things play out there if this turns into a rental and maybe it can be a successful rental and obviously can the can get him to stay. Yeah, I'm with Pierre. Like, if this becomes a rental, who cares? This is what you do. You know, yes, they gave up a major piece in Martin H's. I get that. But this is what you do when you're trying to win the Stanley Cup. And the Carolina Hurricanes are trying to win the Stanley Cup right now. So whether or not Ranton resigns, I still like that trade. They're going for it. That's what

we talked about it last year. What does Carolina need to get over the hump? They need a finisher and they need a goalie. They went out and they got Jake Gensel last year. It wasn't enough. This year, They went even higher and they get Miko Ranton. Still need a goalie. I feel like they still need a goalie. But they're going for it as they should be. They've got the most sustained success maybe of any team in the league where they're just consistently elite.

And they have nothing to show for it. They haven't won, gotten to a Stanley Cup final even yet. So whether Rantanin signs or not, he's going to be good for them. And I know this is what I wrote about last week is he has one goal and one assist in the first six or seven games. He's been fantastic, though. Like if you've been watching the hurricanes, he has been utterly dominant.

He's got this weird run of bad puck luck right now where he's hitting a poster. Guy's making a great save. But he is creating so many chances. Every single statistic he has is better in Carolina than it was in Colorado and leads Carolina. And it's not just the Carolina effect where everybody's fancy stats go up because they just funnel all their pucks to the net. He is creating high danger chance after high danger chance for himself and for his teammates. If he keeps doing that, a guy like him, he's going to score a bunch of goals.

and he's going to be just fine. The question is, will he resign? I don't think they're going to flip him. I think that's kind of silly, frankly. But it would really help them mentally, I think, if they resign him before the playoffs, if they get that extension locked in. But, man, I don't know.

I don't know. He should. If I'm Miko Ranthinen, if I'm Pat Brousan, I am telling Miko Ranthinen, dude, actually, is it Pat Russo? I can't remember. But I'm telling, if I'm his agent, I am telling him, Andy Scott's.

Fine. Okay, there you go. Don't sign. Like, I would be, if I'm every agent, I am telling every player, don't sign long term. Cap is going way up, bet on yourself, take a two or three year deal, do what the NBA guys do, maximize your, not just your profits, but your flexibility. Don't get Seth Jonesed, right? Not every team is going to be good forever. And sometimes you sign with a team that you think is trying to win now and a year later,

then in a rebuild, and you're stuck. Don't do that to yourself. If I'm Miko Rattan's agent, I'm telling him to sign a two or three-year deal in Carolina, but short-term. But we all know how this is going to end. He's going to get either an eight-year deal in Carolina or a seven-year deal somewhere else because this is hockey. And I don't think there's a huge risk of Carolina falling off a cliff anytime soon.

They've got a pretty good balance of ages. They're as stable as anybody. They've had the same coach forever and he's not going anywhere. If you're looking for stability, you can do a lot worse than Carolina for sure. Absolutely. But I'm with you. I think even if this trade had just been a push for one year, and if Carolina had known that going in,

maybe you're grimacing a little bit at the cost of NACIS for that, but I still think when you get into the playoffs, Rantanin's a guy that you're going to prefer to NACUS, and Carolina's been around it for long enough that they could certainly have easily justified this on a pure rental basis of saying, we're going to give it the best kick we can this year. This is a wide open year, to your point,

and let's go for it. And I think that's fine. I think even if Renton tells them today, I'm not doing it before the deadline, they go, okay, well, we're all in with it. Let's go for the full ride. Absolutely. And that's what you want as a fan, right?

You want a team that's trying to win every single year. Damn the consequences. You worry about the consequences later. We talk about this all the time here in Chicago. Every year, the Blackhawks would trade their first round pick, try to get a rental to the deadline. And, you know, they're paying for it now. Things are, God, man, they are bleak here in Chicago.

But they got three Stanley Cups out of going for it all the time. And there's not a fan in Chicago. that we trade those three Stanley Cups to be pretty good right now. So you go and you win. Flags fly forever. You try to win and that's what you should want out of your GMs. And that's what Carolina is doing. All right.

Number four, another deadline angle here is the New York Rangers. And they're an interesting team because all year. Interesting, yes. Interesting is a way to put it. They're a tire fire. What do you want me to say here? They had all the guys who underperformed at the four nations. How deep do you want me to go?

They had like the worst game ever against the penguins and still won it. They're so baffling. Like, who knows what to make of this team? Like, when they're good, they're losing, when they're bad, they're winning. I don't, like, what do you do if you're the New York Rangers? Like, I have no idea. They are the most fascinating team right now because you could justify them adding at the deadline and you could justify them completely fire sailing right now.

It's all available to them. Would I be crazy to say that they, they're going to need a significant remodel in the off season, almost no matter what happens here? Like, you're keeping Shisterkin. He's nailed down. You're probably keeping Fox and Schneider nailed down. Is anything else even off the table for you if you're Chris Jerry? You're talking about Panarin then?

Would it be crazy? I mean, he's got one year left on his deal. If someone wanted to give you a big offer and you're going to reshape your team on it, would that be a crazy thing to entertain? That's what it would take, right? If you're really trying to reshape things, it would take someone like that. I don't know. Like, what they're doing now, they won the president's trophy last year and they made it to the conference.

Like, this is a good team, obviously. Yep. But this year has exposed a lot of the flaws in the system. And, you know, some of these guys are aging out. Mika Zabanajad is not what he used to be. Chris Kreider is not what he used to be. And yeah, they have to take a long, hard look in the mirror between now and March 7th and between now in the summer and decide what it is they are.

You know, it wasn't that long ago that they sent out the letter that they were rebuilding. And then they're like, no, screw that. We're going to get our, Artemie Panarin fell in our lap. We're going to go for it. And they went for it. And they came real close to getting it. And now they're kind of back in that mushy middle again. And I don't know what the Rangers are, and I don't think the Rangers know what the Rangers are.

I'm finally at the point where I'm ready to write off the Boston Bruins, which is a dangerous thing to say, as we've seen for years on end here. I still can't shake the feeling that I think the Rangers are going to get into the playoffs this year. For all the good stories in Columbus and Ottawa and Detroit, probably ends up only one of those teams gets in along with the Rangers. It just seems like we have egressious Turk and you have the Trump card. I agree. I lean towards the goalie. They have the best goalie in the world. I lean towards the goalie.

But is that good enough? Is being the eighth seed good enough to warrant continuing in this fashion? I don't know. Like, that's what I don't know. I don't know what James Dolan wants. I don't know what Drewy wants. I don't know what they expect. I don't know what their plan is.

It's just, it's such a messy team. Chris Flannery, our producer here, I was a big ranger guy's chanting for Brady Kichuk already. And yeah, bringing it, Brady Kichuk would change the dynamic of this team significantly. It would make any team better. but is that reasonable? Is that realistic? I don't know what you do. Does adding one superstar make everything okay? I have no idea. I think it's just changing up the mix, right? I think that's something you can do in the off season. You could do it now if the right thing comes across your table, obviously. I'm sure if in a world, which the Ottawa centers are not going to trade Brady could chuck this season. But in a world where they were, yeah, do whatever it takes, obviously. But that's not happening. So it's moot. So you look to the off season. You see what happens this year. I think you let the chips fall where. they may this season. And then

whichever way it goes, I think they probably need to shake up one way or another. But you can wait on that until the summer, until the draft and do your reshaping then. That's at least what I would do if I was Chris Jerry. What do you make of the Adam Fox backlash? I mean, he was not really very good. He was not good.

He's not a great skater. He's not the fastest guy in the world. And that was the fastest hockey literally we've ever seen. And he struggled. And, you know, he's still having pretty good season with the Rangers. He's a little less than a point of the game, but he's still, he's still effective. Is the Adam Fox elite defenseman era over already? Or was that just a blip in the road? Well, I think he's still a number one defenseman, but I do think there was valid data to be

had at that. And I don't think it's completely new data, right? Like what we're learning is when the hockey's at its highest level and its fastest and at its most intense, it turns out that size and speed still actually matter a little bit, counter to what a bunch of people on the internet would want you to believe. And I don't think that's a crazy conclusion to draw, and I don't think that that should shock anyone, right? The question is not whether you can win

with Adam Fox on your team. It's just understanding that you have to ask certain things of certain players that may be different from other players. And when you have a guy like Miro Hayskinan or Charlie McAvoy, those concerns aren't as significant, the ones that we talked about with Fox.

It doesn't mean Fox can't give you more in other ways. I think he can still run on power play at an elite level. he's still going to be, he's still going to be one of the smartest players on the ice of any of sheet of ice he's on ever. It's just you have to surround him with the right kinds of players. And I think the Rangers have probably tried to do that to a high degree over the years. Truba, Raiden Schneider. I think Kianjee Miller is the kind of player that you would envision surrounding Adam Fox in a playoff series and in helping to make that work.

It's just getting the mix right. So elite defenseman, like are we done talking about him in the Hughes-McCard tier? That's possible. We may be done talking about him in that tier. He's got a Norris to his name, though. no one's taking that away from him. He's still a number one defenseman. He's still going to be a hugely important player for the Rangers.

But yeah, I think if you're looking at a matchup and they couldn't see McCar or Hughes until, you know, the Stanley Cup final anyway. But if you're looking at various matchups, you're probably a little less inclined to go advantage Rangers because of Fox than you would have been before. I think that those worries have reached a point where it's fair to say that's a kind of game that he has to be used a certain way and you've got to kind of insulate him a little bit in those moments, which doesn't mean he can't be awesome for 82 regular season games and in the start of the playoffs.

It's just at a certain level of intensity. You got to account for it. Yeah, I don't think you need to be big and fast in the NHL, but you probably need to be big or fast is kind of what we're learning here. Like if you're going to be in that truly elite level to keep up with something like a team Canada, you need to be, you need to be able to move, man. You got to go. Yeah, no, I'm with the 100%.

You got to be able to separate and you got to be able to match, right? whether it's, if it's a guy coming on the rush, you got to be able to put your body in his way or you got to be able to skate and mirror him. You have to be able to do at least one of those things, and ideally both. Is this where we're legally obligated to talk about Jacob Slavin? I feel like that's like the rule.

Now it's like you have to talk about how great Jacob Slavin is now in relation to the four nations when you bring up defense. And he is. He was incredible, but I didn't feel like that was a narrative we were missing. I feel like this is a guy that we've talked about getting a, you know, a Rod Lagway award forever. Because we knew how good he was at this specific.

part of the game. That wasn't a surprise to me. I guess this is a product of having 9 million Americans watching a hockey game. Most of them have not seen Jacob Slavin or heard of Jacob's those of us who watch hockey have known for a long time that Jacob Slavin is freaking awesome. And he has been for a long time. And he's not just a defensive guy. He's actually useful offensively too. He's like a 40, 50 point guy a year.

But yeah, it's been kind of funny to watch like people discover Jacob Slavin. It's like, well, what are the hell you been, man? It's not like Carolina hasn't been on big stage. I know they're not a big market, but they're on ESPN plenty. They're in the playoffs every year. Conference finals, yeah. Totally.

Jacob Slavin is and remains really good. And I don't think we need to spend any more time on that. He's like the Sasha Barka where he's so underrated that he's overrated, right? He's not overrated. I actually don't think either of those guys is overrated. They're both outstanding. Let's go to your number five storyline. This will wrap this segment here.

And that's the Winnipeg Jets. It is a wide open year. And I think right now the Jets, are one point back as we record this of the Washington Capitals. They have a legit shot at the president's trophy. Are you buying Winnipeg as a serious contender this season? It's tough, man. It's tough because they don't have the track record, right?

And that's what I think makes them so interesting is they're clearly a good team. They've been doing this for a while now. And they have Connor Hellebuck, who along with Chess Durkin is the other best goalie in the world. But there's always been that, like, Hellebuck has been like an 870 goalie in the last two or three playoffs. that he's had. So that's what Four Nations was so big. He was so good in Four Nations. I know he lost.

I know he lost, but he was excellent. Start to finish. Everything he was out there, he was solid. And that was important for both him and for the Jets, I think, to see him play in a big environment like that and play well. Because the Jets go as far as Connor Hellobuck takes them. And if he can translate that play into the Stanley Cup playoffs, then the Jets are going to be winning a couple of series here,

which they haven't done in a long time. What's funny is Helibook isn't even the guy. with the most approve in the playoffs. I don't think. I think that's Nick Ehlers, who maybe it's even beyond being able to prove. He may have already proved it the other way at this point, that he just not going to be able to do what he does in the regular season and the playoffs. But, you know, I'd still believe that with goaltending,

you know, Sergey Bobrovsky had a narrative for a while that he wasn't great in the playoffs until he was excellent and bankable in the playoffs. So that can turn. And I think Hallibuck is too good for there to be, maybe there's a little durability question. How do you manage him? How do you keep him fresh? He's a big goalie.

I get that. He's too good for it to be like, but he can't do it in the playoffs. There's no way I'm buying that about Connor Hallibuck. Yeah, no, I've been kind of frankly shocked to see him be so pedestrian the last couple of years in the playoffs because he is just so good. And that team plays so well in front of him that it makes them almost impenetrable sometimes. It's funny you mentioned Nick Eilers.

He's a pending UFA. That's a guy who could get anywhere from like $4 million to $9 million, depending on what he does in the playoffs, right? He's such a good skater and he's a good producer. But you're right. He has a lot to prove. and there's a lot of money at stake for him in the postseason this year. I'm inclined to pick against Winnipeg.

I look at their lineup, and similar in the way we were talking about Fox, there's just not a lot about them that screams, this will work for round after round in the playoffs. They could win a round. I just have a hard time seeing them make a real run. And it's tougher in the West than it is in the East, right? I mean, you've got in the West, you've got Vegas, you've got Colorado, you've got Dallas, you've got Edmonton.

There's just better teams in the West. There's more elite. cup contending teams, whereas in the east, you're like, well, shoot, anyone could come out of the east and win this thing. It's not like that in the West. Whoever the seven or eight seed in the West, they're not coming out of this thing. So it is, it's a big ask. Like if Winnipeg does come out of the West this year, they're going to earn it because they're going to have to go through just an absolute murderers row. And Kyle Conner's been outstanding this season.

There's no doubt about that. He's not a guy that you have too many playoff concerns about he's done it on a consistent enough basis. like that's a big, you know, difference making potential piece and you have the X factor in goal. So it's possible. There's a path. It's just not a team I'm excited to pick. If they came up against Dallas, for example, in the first or second round, I'm going

Dallas. It's really not that much of a thought. Dallas, I mean, I've been picking Dallas to win the cup. It feels like for 30 straight years now. So I'm going to stick with them until they do. But yeah, Kyle Connor, another four nations flop, though. Yeah, that one I think is there's only so many like lineup spots there. down lineup, he's not a guy you're going to play on the fourth line.

You kind of want penalty kill utility out of the guys that are down there. I'm not too worried about Connor translating up and he's done it in the playoffs. I'm not so worried. He's not as big, but he is fast. He can separate. Yeah, maybe he's not the guy that you're counting on to lead you into the corner or anything like that. But I think Kyle Connor will be perfectly fine. I'll tell you, there are three buildings in the NHL that I want to see a playoff game

in that I have not seen the playoff gaming yet. One of them is Detroit, because I just think the way that building is, built, it's going to be awesome, and that crowd is starving for it, obviously, after all these years. Montreal, just because we've seen what the Bell Center can be in any hockey environment. I've never been to a playoff game there, and I want to. But number one on my list is Winnipeg. I love that arena. It's my favorite place to see a game.

It's so small and intimate, and it's so loud, and the fans are so great there that I want to see a playoff game there. I want to see a big time playoff game there. That is on my short list of cities I'd like to see do well. But I'm with you. I'm skeptical until they prove otherwise. They do the white out there, right? That's their thing.

Yep, yep. Yeah, really good look. All right, that's the top five storylines for the home stretch of the 2024-25 NHL season. We're going to take a quick break right there, and we're going to come back with the Granger Zone. All right, we are back and we are joined now by Jesse Granger for that MGM's The Granger Zone. Welcome to the Granger Zone. Jesse just turned beat red for everybody listening. As he heard, his music.

Boy, this really goes off. for quite a while, doesn't it? That was interesting hearing that. No pressure. I'll live up to that or anything. I know you're in Vegas, but you're not sunburned in February here, buddy. You're just blushing like crazy. I actually did get sunburned on the driving range yesterday for the first time all year,

but I am very lush from that beautiful interest. Jesse, what's the sun? Yeah. I apologize to everyone out there who can't go to the driving range right now. I'm here. We got top golf. All right, so, Jesse, we were talking about storylines for the back half of this 2024-25 season, and we closed off on the Winnipeg Jets.

So let's bring you in on that one. I'm sure Connor Hellebuck is of as much interest to you, in particular, as a goalie guy, as he and the Jets are to us. To me, that's the most interesting storyline in the entire NHL is can Connor Hellebuck do it in the playoffs? Because I write about Connor Hellebuck, what feels like once a week at this point. And the comments on everything you do about Connor Hellebuck will always go directly back to, well, yeah, but tell me when he does something in the playoffs because of how last year's series went. And I think that he got lit up in that Colorado series.

And we can argue whether it was his fault, whether they were all screens. We can argue that for days. But I think that that has changed the narrative on Hellebuck. And like it swung in a crazy direction because his playoff stats weren't great before that, but they weren't terrible either. He's been a pretty good playoff goalie. He went to the Western Conference Finals in 2018. It's not like he's never gone on a deep run.

But because that series went so poorly and because he's been so dominant in the regular season, the narrative on Connor Hellebuck's career is quickly becoming the goalie who doesn't perform in the playoffs. And I just, I hope he ends that. I don't think it's a fair thing. But if he doesn't do well again this year, then it will start to become fair. And when you look at how dominant he's been in the regular season, he's destroying the goal saved above expected model. He's leading the entire league and nobody's even in the same

universe as him right now. Logan Thompson's second and I think he's 10 behind him. But he's on his way to getting his third Vesina. Right now, the current Vesina odds at BEDMGM. Connor Hellebuck is minus 5,000, which means for all you non-betters out there, that means a $500 bet on Connor Hellebuck to win the Vesna would win you a whopping $10 at this moment. So basically, that's the sports book saying, we don't want you to bet on Connor Hellebuck, because he is winning the Vesna. The next closest is Logan Thompson at plus 2,500. So they're basically awarding him the Vesna at this point.

If he does indeed win his third Vesna, since they changed the Vesna trophy in 1981, prior to that, it was what we now call the William Jennings, which is just the fewest goals allowed. In 1981, they decided, let's actually have people vote on this and decide the best goalie. Since then, there have only been three goalies to win the Vesna three times.

and they are Patrick Waugh, Martin Brodur, Dominic, Haschik, the Mountain Rushmore of Gold. Decent. Yeah. So if Connor Hellebuck joins those three, it's pretty clear he's the best goalie of this generation. By every individual statistic you can look at, but he hasn't won a Stanley Cup and he hasn't won enough in the playoffs. So to me, that's the biggest storyline for the rest of this season is can he shake that and change the narrative on his career?

Here's what I find interesting about that, Jesse. And we talked about how narratives can shift with goalies. I mentioned Bobrovsky is a guy who once had a reputation like that and turned. Even if you go back at Helibuck's earlier career, though, this wasn't the case until the last two seasons, right? If you look at him from 2018 to 2021, he had 35 playoff games. He had a 921 save percentage. And he was below 500 win percentage. Maybe that's the top line thing that everyone's getting sidetracked by.

But are we really going to let 10 games over the last two years completely tanked this guy's reputation? It's interesting. Yeah, like I said, I do think that the pendulum has swung a little too far. That Colorado series was ugly. Trust me, I had with Maradatesh, we had a Hellebuck feature where we spoke to his dad and a million people waiting to run it during the playoffs and we're like, all right, as soon as he has a good game, it's ready to go. And we waited a long time that ended up running at the beginning of this season. It was ugly. He was getting lit up. I understand why people saw that series and freaked out. But like you said, it is, a over, it's, we overreacted to one bad series. He's been pretty good in the playoffs in his career. Well, how do you assess his four nations performance? That's the closest comp we're going to get to a playoff situation. He was really good, but he didn't win in the end. Yeah. And honestly, that's kind of what that was made, probably the main reason that I thought of this as my number one storyline, because I felt like it was happening again. We were seeing it on Twitter. Connor Hellebuck didn't win four nations. His statistics were good. I thought he was good in the finale.

but he wasn't the better goalie. And that's always, and like, you can't control that as a goal. There's so much in goal. Well, we all knew that Jordan Bennington was great and was going to be perfect in this playoffs. I mean, we all said that nonstop all year long. Superstar, superstar. Yeah, we, we forecasted that. But when you're a goalie, there's so much out of your control.

It's not like a forward where you can go out and make the plays. You have to wait for the play to come to you. And Helibuck didn't have any spectacular saves in that game. That's partially due to his style of always been in the right spot. He doesn't make those lunging saves the way Bennington does. But then the other thing you don't have in your control is if Jordan Bennington doesn't make that glove save on Austin Matthews in the corner, U.S. wins. Everybody talks about how great Hellebuck was. There's no qualms about Hellebuck's performance.

But because Bennington does make it, now not only did his Hellebuck lose, he got outplayed by the other goalie and he wasn't good enough. So I thought Hellebuck was good in that tournament. I thought both goleys were excellent in the final. and Bittington just made one extra save. It was an awesome save, and that's the one we'll always remember. And I think the feel of Hela Bucks tournament changes based off what Jordan Biddington did, which is probably not how we should do it, but it is how we do it. So the best team in the east right now is the Washington Capitals.

Another team that it's funny how nobody seems to believe in either of the best team in each conference. And with Washington, I think a lot of that does stem from the goalie. Do we believe in Logan Thompson? it Thompson's harder to believe in than Hellebuck because he doesn't have the track record and he doesn't have the like technical precision. And I'll be honest, when Thompson left Vegas, I was very skeptical of will he be able to succeed outside it? Because the Golden Knights play an incredible defensive system that has made every goalie that comes through here look great. I mean, even when Aiden Hill won the cup, if Lorette Breslau hadn't gotten hurt, he probably would

have won the Stanley Cup that year. He was well on his way to beating the Oilers. the second round. He beat Winnipeg in the first round, out dueled Connor Hellebuck, and he was going to win it. So then when I see Aden Hill, Laurent Berswa, Logan Thompson, all these guys who weren't super high-heralded goalies playing as well as they do, you obviously wonder how much of that is the system. I was skeptical that Thompson would be able to put up elite numbers behind Washington, for example, and he's proven me wrong. He's been awesome all year. If you look at his career stats, the guy's never posted below a 900 save percentage. He is a very good goalie, but there's still a little bit of hesitancy to put him in that elite tier where his numbers say that he should be. And I think, like you mentioned, goalie career trajectory, our perception of goalies changes so much in the playoffs specifically because they just control. The games are decided on their performance.

And if Logan Thompson comes into these playoffs and continues this and plays great, and he doesn't even need to win the cup, If he just plays well and they win a couple rounds, the perception of Logan Thompson, to me, will change dramatically around the league and we'll start looking at him. When you start listing off the goalies, Hellebuck, Shisterkin, Sorokin, Vasilevsky, I think with a good playoff run,

Thompson kind of launches himself into that tier of goalie, which right now I think almost everyone is pretty hesitant to put him there. It's funny you mention Laurent Brasua, because those of us in Chicago, we don't believe he really exists. I don't think that's a real person. We have not seen him since they signed him. I don't think he exists.

I feel so bad for Bershua because he's such a good goalie, but man, his injury history. And here in Vegas, he had been injured his whole career, basically. And then he got the big surgery a couple years ago. And he came out and said, like, yeah, it was something that had been bothering me since I was a teenager, basically. I finally got it fixed. And it was like, all right. And now he can play the rest of his career. And it didn't last very long.

The poor guy can't get on the ice. one of the themes of our show Jesse today has been how wide open this year seems there's not that it team other than maybe the oilers that you're kind of expecting to make a deep run and then particularly in the east I think it feels like anybody's conference to win that could be Washington certainly there's two teams though that I feel like we're always waiting to see really go on a deep run and Carolina has kind of done it Carolina and the Toronto Maple Leafs and there are two teams that I think have still big goaltending question marks. Do you believe that either of these teams has the goaltending to take them win multiple

playoff rounds and make a deep run on these playoffs? I do. I actually feel better about both of those teams goaltending than I have in years. I think that Kachetkov has taken steps. Now, it's going to be Will Carolina play Kachetkov because they have shown us that when Freddie Anderson is healthy, they play Freddie Anderson. And he's barely played this season. His numbers have been good in the very few games that he has played.

But I'm still a little more skeptical about Carolina. Toronto, I love what we've seen from Joseph Wall and Anthony Stolars. And I also think that it's the style of play in Toronto has changed to be more goalie friendly. I think that that team has similar to Edmonton kind of like, we'll trade chances with you. We have the stars to the offensive talent to if we get the same amount of chances as you, we're going to score more than you. And I think that that has hurt their goalies in the past. and now they're playing a more defensive structure. I think they're one of the best defensive teams in the league.

And then you combine that with two goalies that are feeling really good. And they're totally different styles. Wall is more athletic. He reads the play, I think, a little faster. Stolars is just a giant blocking goalie who just, he moves real well for a guy his size and he just covers the whole net. There's never anything to shoot at. I think either of those guys could give Toronto the goaltending they need to win.

now. Will they get the goals? Because I think in past seasons, we've, we've, we've looked at the goaltending because on paper, that's the weakness. But in the playoffs, rarely is it the goalie who blows it for the least. It's usually they, they struggle to score enough goals to get in. So we'll see if they, if as a team, they can make the run. But I think Stolars and Wall have been good enough to give me the confidence that I think their goaltending is good enough this year. But who's it going to be? Because if you have two goalies, you have no goalies. We've seen that. Like, the tandem works great in the regular season. It does not work well in the playoffs. I think we have to, I I do think that our mindset's going to change on that.

Boston last year rotated them for a little while, and they both were amazing. Like, Boston's goaltending was arguably the best of any team in the league last year. They just lost. I mean, it wasn't the goal. Like, you look at Swamen's numbers were amazing. Obviously, that's why you got the huge contract. And Allmark's numbers, I think Olmark actually had a higher save percentage than Swamon. They went to Swamen eventually.

They eventually stuck with one guy. It's, and I doubt Toronto's going to rotate just because they're more old, school, but we have to change this mindset. I really do. I think that when you have a team that, now, don't get me wrong, if you've got the star and you've been kind of giving him games off during the regular season to keep him fresh, you go to him like Jake Ottinger, Hellebuck. But in these true tammons, where it really is, we don't know which of those two are better. I don't think the Maple Leafs know which of those two goalies are better right now, Waller Stones. I really do think they should rotate them the way they had in the regular season. And I think it's an advantage. I think that

when you get into the playoffs and you get triple overtime games, all of a sudden the next game, you've got a fresh goalie. The other team doesn't. I think there are advantage to it, but it takes a massive shift in mindset, and it's not easy to do. We're seeing it in the regular season.

I think it's only a matter of time until we see it in the playoffs. If I had to pick one right now, I'd probably go with Joseph Wall between the two. But like I said, I think that it's a coin toss. I think they're both very good. It's not just take a mindset shift. It takes a lot of courage of your conviction to like,

if a guy goes and pitches a shutout, to sit him the next playoff game when every playoff game feels like do or die it's just oh boy it's it's really hard for these coaches to do that it is it is and it's like and you're going to be the one that gets blamed if the guy exactly out and the other guy comes in and sucks yes but going back to the boston thing i think it in some ways it's just do what you're used to doing don't don't change whatever you've been doing all season long just because now it's the playoffs if something's been working for you all year why get away from that i totally agree i totally agree and i think that because of the way the NHL has gone with these tannums, like, it's wrong to stop doing that

when the playoffs start in the situations where it's a true 50-50. And that's rare. Like, we're talking less than half the league has true 50-50 splits where they're alternating between them. And especially, it's even more rare to have two that are playing as well as Wall and Stolars are. So I think that they're in a very similar situation of Boston last year. And I think that I loved it when Boston started the playoffs rotating them and it was working and they went away from it and they lost. And I don't think that's the reason they lost, but I think they should have stuck with it. And I hope Toronto does. Great stuff from Jesse. That is going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. If you've been listening and

enjoying the show, please leave us a rating and review, preferably five stars. Frankie Carrado will be between two shons on Wednesday. We'll talk to you soon.