The Athletic Hockey Show - U18 Worlds standouts and concerns

Episode Date: May 3, 2024

On today’s Prospect Series episode of The Athletic Hockey Show, Max talks to Corey, Scott Wheeler, and FloHockey’s Chris Peters on location at the 2024 IIHF U18 World Championship in Finland to discuss the standout performances by under-agers so far, concerns for some of this year’s draft eligibles, and the biggest questions for the guys heading into the medal round. Subscribe to The Athletic: http://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody. Max Boltman here alongside the full compliment of the Athletics Hockey Show prospect writers and correspondence. Corey Promond, Scott Wheeler, and Flow Hockies, Chris Peters, all on the ground in Finland. You'll hear some background noise from them because they are there during the World Championships here. And I think they're keeping an eye on the team Canada game. So if we got some laggy stats, that's why. But gentlemen, we are into the elimination rounds here.

And once Canada's game wraps up, we'll be into the metal rounds. And so far, the story of the tournament, Scott, has been the underagers stealing the show at the World U18 Championships. Yeah, they've been debatably the three best players in the tournament. And by them, I mean the big boys of Porter Martone, Gavin McKenna, and James Higgins, Higgins isn't technically your typical underager in that he is in 06.6. Right. Martone, too. Martone, same boat. both returnees at this tournament even.

But they've been dominant. Like if we were to cast our all-star ballots today, that's probably your three forwards right there. You probably don't have a 20-24 kid on a media all-star ballot. So, yeah, I mean, Hagen's in particular on this side. We've been in ESPU predominantly. We've each made our way over to Vanta, but Higgins has been clinical,

and his line has been USA's best line, and USA has been dominant throughout. But the other two kids have had big, big tournaments for Canada and have been the drivers for Canada as well. McKenna in particular, I mean, the way he skates and manages the puckett speed is pretty rare, especially for a player that age. So it's been fun to watch those kids. They've been, they've all looked like stars here, like legitimate stars as obviously

two 2025s and 1, 2026. To that end, Corey, if you look at the stats here at this tournament, James Hagen's has 19 points through five games. It's one point off of Will Smith and Jack Hughes in two less games. He's two points behind Kutrov's all-time record. He's still got the two games left. That's the perspective. How has James Hagan's gotten into this territory at this tournament?

Well, he gets there because I think the skating skill combination is elite. It's reminiscent in some ways of Jack Hughes, quite frankly, in just terms of how good a skater is, how elusive he is, how good his edge work is, to combine with great skill and offensive creativity. I do think when it comes to all these records, whether it's the ones that Hagus is chasing or looking at how Martone is scoring for a double underage or any of the other multitude of records that we've been tracking in this tournament, I think it's worth keeping in mind that ever since Russia is no longer in this tournament and we've substituted out a good team for a bad team. Whether at here or at the world junior level, I put a lot of asterisks next to these records. I mean, they are records. Russia is out for, you know, and who knows when they'll have our comeback.

But I do think that's worth keeping in context in terms of how well he's performing because you get that one extra game against a bad team. It can skew things quite significantly. Yeah. Going to Chris here now, Hagen's and Porter Martone are going to be two big names that we're watching in next year's class. And I guess my first reaction on this tournament is it's the story of James Hagan cementing himself as the favorite.

to be number one in that class, but what is Martone done at this tournament to put himself in that upper territory in the class? Yeah, well, I think the size obviously stands out right away and then you see what he's able to do with his hands and the ability to play with elite players like Gavin McKenna and to kind of play off of each other the way that they have has really been exceptional. I mean, you know, I would say that, you know, McKenna has been allowed more to be the driver and Martone has probably been more of a finisher. You know, I, I think that to me, we're still missing a big piece of the 2025 equation here without Anton Frundel, who you can see how much he's missed by this Swedish team in terms of the fact that they don't have a driver.

And I think that that's going to be the interesting scenario for Martone going forward versus the two guys that we just mentioned in Hagen's and Frundell. I mean, certainly Martone has shown that he can be a driver, that he can do things offensively, and that he can, has the skill on top of that size and strength component that he's got going. So it's going to be a really interesting race next year. You know, I would say that, yeah, maybe Higgins has cemented himself. But, you know, I don't necessarily think that it's a foregone conclusion at this point. I think he's done more to impress in this tournament. And I think from that 25 angle, I thought Roger McQueen, very early on the room,

was looking very impressive, six, five center. He skates really well for his size, has a lot of offensive skill, gets injured in the first game for Canada. And it's unfortunate. I think he would have had a big tournament. Second game. Sorry. But, you know, he's very impressive. I think McQueen, Frondell, Michael Mesa, Hagan's, and Martone, for me, are the top of the group for next year's draft.

Yeah. Scott, Corey mentioned kind of the McKenna factor doing this as a double underager. Which of those tournaments is kind of pop more for you? what Hagen's is doing one year out from his draft or what McKenna has done two years out from his draft class? I think it's McKenna. Just doing it for a Canadian team that hasn't been together, doing it with unfamiliar line mates, doing it at that age. It's been fun to watch.

Like, he's been thrilling on the puck. Not to say that Higgins hasn't been that, because Higgins is quite likely going to maybe not just break Nikita Kutrov's record, but now that they've got a quarter final matchup or a semi-final matchup with the Slovaks, which is a team that they have already thumped once in this tournament, you could see him sail past 21 points in terms of Kutrov's record here. So it's been, both are extremely impressive. But what McKenna is doing at his age with no chemistry,

it's been almost magic to watch him sort of dance around the ice for Canada. Corey, do you have a thought there on which of those feats is kind of more unusual, I guess, which statistical. I know you gave the caveat about Russia, but given what it is, like what is, what McKenna is doing two years out versus Hagan's a year out?

Yeah, I think when you watch McKenna, I think the special traits he has are just really special. I think particularly his puck skills and his hockey sense. For me, are, you know, elite traits.

Like, I think Hagan's has some really special traits. But I think when you watch Gavin McKenna, not just here, but when I've watched him in the WHL, the way he thinks the game and, and it's of the elite elite caliber. You're almost thinking of a more competitive,

better skating Trevor Zegrois in terms of the kind of skill set he has. It's worth noting too in the conversation about all of these kids that McKenna and Martone are winners, right? So I think one of the interesting conversations that scouts are having in a medicine hat, I know has had and are considering for next year is because he's so far ahead at the WHOHL level,

is it worthwhile giving him play down the middle next year. Like, will McKenna play 50 games as a center next year? He's got to do something over the next two years in the WHL to keep himself busy. So Ken McKenna at some point here start to play down the middle, I think will be an interesting conversation. And with Martone, that's not going to happen. Martone's going to be a winner.

So teams will have to consider that at the top of next year's draft. Do you see center traits with him, or is that just sort of a, hey, might as well find out? I think with the way he skates and how it evolved, he'd be. as a centerman and the puck touches and all of that. There's no reason he couldn't do it. Like he's a special player. He would make it work. So it'll be interesting to see if they test him.

It was the same story with Mesa, who were just talking about. Mesa started in Saginaw as a winger, and they moved him to the middle and then moved him back to the wing. And it sounds like Misa's going to play entirely center in Saganon next year just to make sure that that's his position long term. But McKenna's, I mean, why not, right?

All right, so we talked about the underage guys steal on the show a little bit here, Corey. But one of the big important things about the U18 World Championships is it's kind of the closing statement for a lot of 24 draft eligibles here. Is there anyone at this event in this draft class, though, that has really elevated their stock or given scouts a lot to think about here? Well, I think coming in, we talk about the really top of the draft class, the two names that I think a lot of us had our eyes on was Finland Center, Consta, Hellenius, and U.S. winger, Eisman. And both of them have gotten their points and have had very good moments and have looked like good players. But I also think in the tougher games, which USA still will have probably a so-so to be final game and a tough gold medal game to come from when we're recording. But Finland's had two really tough games, one against the U.S. and then their quarterfinal

game against Sweden that they lost. And I don't think Heleneas particularly stood out in either game. and the U.S.'s tough games being the game against Finland, and then in their quarter final against Switzerland, which they won by a decent margin, but I thought we're pushed for a decent portion of that game. I thought Arzeman was just okay. Again, I think both of them are really good prospects. Haldaneas in particular, I think, you know,

has a chance to be a top 10 pick. But I think given how well he played with the senior team and how well he played in the league of playoffs, he could have come in here and absolutely solidified. He could have been a top 10 pick. I mean, there was some buzz. in the league that he could be, you know, maybe a four to seven overall kind of guy. And I don't think he did that.

I think he looked like a pretty good, but not special, 5-11 forward. I don't think there was, he showed dynamic traits and playmaking, like I've seen him do at other levels. He still might go to the senior team with Finland, and maybe if he plays well there, he could work his way back into that mix. But he didn't have a great year. If you were criticizing Cole Eisenman throughout the season, I thought in those tough games, he showed why you've been criticizing him.

I thought he looked one-dimensional. I thought he showed the skill. He showed a guy who has a very hard shot and he's a good skater. But I thought there wasn't a whole lot of tough plays being made. I thought his compete was average. I look frustrated out there. So I don't think there were guys in that who really pushed their way into the real top tier of the draft. The one guy who you thought might do that could have been Tija Gingua, too, with Canada.

And Tij is having a good tournament. I don't think he's hurt himself in this tournament. but there are only 10 players can go in the top 10. And I think when you look at Teague as a 5-11-60 winger, I think he were hoping he would come here and kind of do what Berkeley Caton did in the summer, which was just dominate and be a true top score in the way that McKenna has done,

and the way the Porter Martone has done. And I don't think it, Gingla, while showing a lot of skill, really stood out in the opening week of the tournament to where I think he would have solidified his way into that level of the draft. I think him, Isamon looked like teens pick, and I think Heleneas has looked like an eight to 12 pick. Chris, on Iserman in particular, it's the guy that I think we've picked apart all year and I think everybody has. People are going to look at this at the end of it and say, well, he was a goal per game player

at this tournament. Why is everyone so harsh? Can you speak to why those big game performances matter so much on the evaluation? I think it's because of how little of an impact we saw. And we already know these a finisher. We know he's not going to be a play driver. And, you know, I think that the second line for Team USA, which is him, Camille, Benarick, and Max Plant have not really, you know, kind of distinguished themselves in this tournament

as much as even USA's third line, which is Christian Humphreys, Trevor Connolly, and L.J. Mooney, who's the underageer. So, you know, that's a bit of a concern as well. You know, we always knew that Cole would score goals and he has, but then when he's not scoring, have to say, okay, well, what else is there? I think in today's game in particular against, you know, against Switzerland, where goals were harder to come by and they played a very, you know, tight defensive game and we're getting into lanes a lot. I just, I felt like he, he got in his head too much, too. That was another thing that I found concerning. He looked lost at

different times. And, you know, I think when he's at his best, he's confident, he's pushing, he's doing all the things that, you know, that, that allow you to be a good goal score, which is getting in a position, putting yourself in good spots. I didn't even see him really getting, you know, finding space or popping in the, you know, areas where he was going to be able to produce. So that was a concerning thing today. He was deferential at times too, which I think some people want from him at times just a better shot selection. But it was almost like he was doing it to his detriment. You know, he wasn't doing, making those correct decisions.

So, you know, guys like him are going to get picked apart, but he's given people enough reasons to pick him apart is the thing. And, you know, he does have the one trait that's really important. But when you see these tight checking games, guess what? Every game in the NHL is really hard to score in. So, you know, you need to prove that you can do it in all situations. Scott, Liam Green Tree is another guy. We've talked about potentially in the teens of this draft who maybe hasn't had that breakthrough wow tournament here that you would want to really establish himself up there.

What have you kind of seen from Green Tree in this event? Well, it's been interesting because there's always, someone always, a line or two lines always get lost in the shuffle with Canada. Canada likes to run four lines at this tournament. And then if you don't grab the minutes, there's only so many minutes to go around. So suddenly Liam Green Tree and Oli Josephson, who've been the sort of consistent players on that, quote, unquote, third line, which is really being used as a fourth line, suddenly they're only playing nine, ten, 11 minutes a night.

And this was after Green Tree scored in both the tournament games and was, I wasn't at the games and didn't watch them, but was apparently quite noticeable in both of those games. But he's just been a little quiet. He doesn't have the pace, which is often an issue. We're on hybrid ice here. So it's not the typical international sheet, but he doesn't have the pace and that giddy-up. And those guys often struggle in this tournament. A year ago, Colby Barlow, who was he?

He was a teen's pick who wasn't a great skater and struggled at this event because he didn't have this sort of giddy-up, the jump to play on these bigger sheets. So it's been noticeable just that line in general. I don't think only Josephson's been good. They've rotated through multiple wingers with them. Eric Vanekers been on sort of mixed in with that group. And they just have none of the, none of the guys who've played on that line have made much an impact.

And as a result, they're just not getting played. I don't think they've been bad. Maxime Massey was on that line for a little bit. I don't think those guys have been bad. I don't think they've been terrible. They each have four or five, points in the tournament and are going to finish point per game or close, but they just

haven't sort of stood out. And when you're going in the teens or the conversation is teens versus 20s or 30s, you need to be a standout at this tournament. Green Tree just hasn't really been that. And that's after a so-so, like he was okay, just okay at the Halinka too. And was outplayed there by Colbo Duane and other players who have again outplayed him in this setting. So that's two international events now for Green Tree, who was great for Windsor this year. where he just hasn't really grabbed it. Corey, another guy on the other side of that coin is Jet Lucenko. And he's a guy who I think coming in, you're talking late first, early second kind of profile.

But he's kind of popped a little bit the other way to maybe elevate his stock, it seems like. Yes, I've been quite impressed by Lechenko. And he's a guy whose stock has consistently risen throughout the course of the year. I've always seen the excellent skater and the guy who competes hard. But when I've watched him in the OHL, I've wondered just how much. offense there is going to be in his game. And I don't think it's high-end offense, but I think it's good enough offense. I think this is a smart player.

He is a skilled player. Actually, he was voted one of the smartest players in the OHL, in the coach's poll, to go with his great speed and his high-compete level. And I think he's been one of the better forwards among this year's draft eligible for Canada. And I think, like he said, I think he came into the tournament as potential late-first, high second. I think it's probably more like mid-to-late first right now for Jet Lucchenko. given how well he has played down the middle for Canada. And that late August birthday,

which could kind of be an ingredient in some of those later season risers. One quick thing, which we'd have mentioned in the other underage players, is for Canada, the Erie duo of Spence and Matt Schaefer have been really good. Spence is a really strong skater with a really high-end motor. He's a very likable player, and he's bringing significant offense in this tournament too.

And Schaefer, I think, along with Logan Hensler, looks like the top defense prospect in next year's draft. Excellent skater, showing a really good offensive mind as well here at this event, being used in all situations,

making stops, making plays. Really impressive from the Erie duo that will be watched closely all of next season. Chris, one more guy I want to get your thoughts on in this 2024 draft class

as Aaron Kivahar. We knew coming in this was going to be an important tournament for him. He hasn't played as much this year. For a guy who kind of came on to the scene, seen a two whole U-18s ago with that great performance when he was a double underager. It's going to be his lowest output at a world U-18s in his third event here. How much of that do you chalk up to all the missed time?

How much of a concern, I guess, is that? Yeah, I mean, it's certainly a concern. It increases the doubts about, you know, how impactful this injury was, the lost time was. You know, it clearly, you know, impacted his mobility at times, his energy, his ability to, you know, play the kind of minutes that were going to be meaningful and effective for his team. I thought he made some uncharacteristic mistakes, made a few bad reads, but you still see elements of, you know, the feet and his ability to, you know, kind of escape pressure or to, you know, kind of buy himself some more time. He's actually a really good backwards skater. Like, you know, it's, we don't talk about that a lot,

but it's, it is important. And he, he certainly is a guy that has mobility moving that way. And so, you know, I think he'll get a little bit of grace. He'll get a little bit of the benefit of the doubt, but he will also, you know, kind of, he didn't help himself. You know, he certainly didn't help himself here. He didn't, he didn't do anything that said, you know, one, that I'm fine and two,

that the concerns that you had about me being either too small or not mobile enough or, you know, all these different things or, or, you know, we know he has hockey teams. We know he can think the game at a high level, you know, he didn't really make plays. I mean, really, you know, that was the thing to me that looking especially against Sweden, where Finland's best players, Pellinius and Kibbi Haru and Heming and those guys, this was their

opportunity to take over a game and show everybody that they can take over a game, and none of them did. And I thought that, you know, Kibb Haru definitely struggled. And he was not happy with his performance. I spoke to him after the game and, you know, how empty he felt about this. But he was glad to have had the opportunity to play because it had been so long, not, you know, going back to September. So we do got to give him a little bit of slack there.

But, you know, I think his future as a potential first round draft pick is very much in doubt. I mean, I always kind of had some concerns on the sides and the skating even two years ago. But given how he was at this event two years ago and was so good as a 15-year-old here, I would look to myself side-eye if I said this.

But I think there's a greater than 50% chance he does not go in the first round right now. All right, just to wrap this up today, guys. I want the thing you're looking forward to or the question you still want answers. with two games left as we go into the metal run here. Scott, we'll start with you. Does anything jump right to the front of mind?

Your biggest question for the rest of the tournament? I honestly want to see Cole Eisenman take over a game here and put two or three in. There's the looming sort of factor of can he catch Cole Cawfield. He's two away from tying Cole Cawfield's all-time record, three away from breaking it. Three goals in two games has been done by Cole Heisman many times over the years, but these are going to be tight games. I think Slovakia maybe helps him. drawing Slovakia in the semifinal might help him in that regard.

But we were talking about Keevi Haru maybe not being a first round pick. If Cole Eisenman wants to be a top 10 guy, even a top 15 guy for some, like there are teams that have, you speak to a few people, and there are teams that have not written him off, but that are really disenfranchised with him that just wouldn't use a high value, high-end pick on him at this point. if he really takes over a game here, if he scores two or three against Canada,

for example, in a gold medal game, that's a big moment for him and for sort of his stock and all of that. So he needs to own it and step up here and be, be coal-eyesman and be a stud. And that's sort of the big, big one that I'll be watching out for over the next couple of days. Corey, how about you? What's your one thing you're watching the metal round?

Tija Gindler, I'm true. I think with T.E. he had such a, you know, a great year in Colonna, a great playoff, especially against Winachi, a guy whose stock has continued to elevate. And I think with Teesh, I'm not sure where I'm putting him right now on a list. I'm not sure if he is a top 10 guy, a top 12 guy, close to the 20. You know, it depends on what game you watch, you know, and, you know, is this, does he make plays?

It's this guy who drives it or does he need someone else to create his chances. I think those are, you know, his skills really high end, the shot's really high end. So I'm looking at these next two games, particularly when we presume, I hate to say presume something before it actually happens in Orlando podcast, but we presume when Canada plays the U.S., is he a guy who could rise to the occasion and really impact a game against really good players? Chris, how about you? Final thought for you? Desperately want to see a USA-Canada final, you know what I mean,

that we don't have a guarantee of, but it certainly is something that will allow us to to evaluate the two clear best teams in this tournament on a level playing field in a neutral site with an opportunity to really, you know, kind of showcase themselves. And I think every single player in that tournament is going to benefit from that experience, you know, to get that USA Canada game. We will have USA Canada coming up at the World Juniors in Ottawa, which is great. We haven't had it a ton at this tournament where it's been, you know, everything on the line. It's very rare that those two teams play in a gold medal game at this tournament. So we've definitely want to see that as well. I think it brings the best out of everybody and that's what I really

want to see. So, you know, this honestly, Max, as far as under 18 tournaments have gone, this is one of the weakest fields I've ever seen here. And so we've definitely felt the absence of a few teams and certain players that aren't here. So it could definitely be worth it if we get that USA Canada fine. Yeah, we'll hope to go out with a bang on that one. Awesome stuff today, guys. Thank you all so much for taking the time out in Finland to do it. That's going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect series. You can catch more of Chris over at Flow Hockey and on his podcast talking Hockey Sense.

We'll have much more for you out of the world under 18 championship. Talk to you soon.