The Athletic Hockey Show - USA tops Canada in WJC pre-tournament finale, Tanner Molendyk, Tristan Leneau out for Canada, all-tournament and medal predictions, and more

Episode Date: December 23, 2023

Max, Corey, and FloHockey’s Chris Peters discuss Team USA’s 6-5 win over Canada in the world juniors pre-tournament finale, the news that Tanner Molendyk and Tristan Leneau will be replaced on Canada’s roster by Jorian Donovan and Ty Nelson, Macklin Celebrini’s impressive play, USA’s “BC” line, if the goaltending picture is any clearer for either team heading into the tournament, and more.Plus, the guys make their all-tournament and medal predictions to close out the show.Subscribe to The Athletic Hockey Show on YouTube: http://youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowGift a 1-year subscription to The Athletic for $19.99 or a 2-year subscription for $39.99 when you visit theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody, Max Bultman here alongside Corey Prondman and Chris Peters of Flow Hockey for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series, a special Saturday edition, holiday edition of the show right before the World Junior Tournament. Obviously, we've kind of done some previews already for this tournament, but some big pre-tournament games, none bigger than today. USA Canada and Corey, uh, It didn't feel like a pre-tournament game one bit.

It's an overtime game. It got physical. What stood out to you in this one? Well, I think we can go into this tournament. And from at least not just this game, but from watching the pre-tournament in general, and conclude that there is no clear favorite in this World Junior Tournament. USA has a good team. Canada has a good team.

Sweden has a good team. Even Finland has a good team. But I think there are flaws in each of those roster. And this is not, like I'd say, a typical Canadian team that comes in and is clearly above the rest of the crop. And while this USA team, I think, is the odds on favorite. As we'll get into in this podcast, there are some notable weaknesses in this team that led to them losing their 5-3 lead and will be issues to monitor in the tough games as the tournament gets going. Before we really dig in here and understanding that we are not exactly a house of learned doctors here on this podcast, Chris, some medical changes, medical necessitated changes to the team Canada roster. Yeah, yeah. And it's certainly unfortunate for both Tanner Mollandike and Tristan Luno, who we now know will not be able to participate.

You know, Jory and Donovan was added as a basically a safety net. They didn't announce him for the roster. on Friday. However, on Saturday, Hockey Canada announced that both Donovan and Ty Nelson, who were previously cut from their selection camp, will both be on the roster. Neither Mollendike nor Luno on the roster. That's a significant shift in, you know, in terms of what Canada expected to go in with and what they will go in with now. Tristan Luno, NHL time this season, played very well for the ducks. He has an illness that won't allow him to compete. So that is pretty troubling for team Canada. And then on top of that, you've got Tanner Mollendike, who was hurt during the pre-tournament selection camp.

And, you know, worked his way back, was ready to go. And then he got hurt again against Switzerland and is out. So, you know, you lose just a tremendous skater in Mollendike. I think one of the best things about his game, you know, is the pace that he plays with. And then you also lose Luno with that experience, you know, QMJL defenseman of the year. So Canada now with a material change just days before the tournament begins. And you just, you know, after already losing so many guys to the NHL to lose two more defensemen, definitely will impact this team probably negatively.

But, you know, I think Donovan actually played very well in their pre-tournament game after getting off a flight. And, you know, we'll see what Ty Nelson can bring with his offensive-minded play. They will get to keep Macklin Celebrini. There was, obviously, he has the hit in the pre-turnerner. game a couple days ago that there was some question. Would he be suspended? He is not. And that's a pretty big deal for Canada, Corey,

because through these pre-tournament games, has he been their best player, one of their best players? How would you characterize it? I think he's been clearly their best player. Wherever he's listed on the depth chart, whether first, second, I think, typically on the second game,

he was typically the fourth line center. But in terms of when you actually watch the games and see how he's contributing, he has been their most consistent player in his strength, excellent skater, excellent compete level. So even as a 17-year-old, he's able to drive a play, and he's just super creative with the puck.

I mean, this is, I think he's one of the very best prospects I've seen in the draft eligible. Like, there's no clear flaw in this guy's game. He's absolutely dynamic and well-rounded. And I think, you know, whether it's an even strength on the offensive side, the defense side on the power play, he's making an impact all over the ice, and that he's not going to be suspended for their over. against Finland is huge because they're in a tough group with Finland, with Sweden. The standings there are really going to matter when it comes to the crossovers in the quarterfinals.

So making sure Celebrity is available is huge for Canada. What did he finish with? Was it eight points in three pre-tournament games? Seven? I forget. I mean, he had the one called off on the high stick, but I think it was the number was crazy. It was at least two points a game. Yeah, he was over two points.

I believe it was seven, two points a game. And then, you know, eight if you count his high stick goal, which like, let's give Macklin Celebrini credit. He's like, no, man, didn't score. High stick. All good. It's a pre-tournament game. Of course, you wouldn't do that in a real game.

But props to him for, you know, honesty is the best policy, as my mom always said. He does get the credit for the kick goal that we think would have come off the board. Correct. But I actually do love the crash of the net there. And I don't even mind him getting a little bit of credit for that. I actually kind of miss when plays like that. you could get away with them. Canada's fourth line, though, Corey, I think is the other story here that we want to hit.

And there was one specific sequence. I think it was an Owen Alarred goal in the end. But Danielson, Beck, Alard, they keep this possession alive for like 60, 70 seconds, multiple forced turnovers on the forecheck. And they just basically wore Team USA down until Alar chips a goal in. I haven't looked at the ice time yet for this game against the U.S. but I believe in the game against Switzerland. Those three played among the most minutes for the Canadian forwards.

I think Danielson actually led the Canadian forwards a nice time. And in this game, they weren't being played like a fourth line. I mean, they were out there on the penalty killed. The Lord actually was on the second power play units, replacing Easton Cowan in this game against the Americans. And in general, that line has been, I think, their most consistent, even strength line. You know, I mean, just a ton of pressure. they all skate really well.

They all compete very hard. And they are generating offence. I don't think those combination of players have high-end skill. Maybe downloads in the most of the three, but I don't think any of them are really known for their dynamic playmaking. But just because they have the puck so much, it's been leading to a lot of scoring chances for that unit. And I think, you know, when they start getting into the real games,

this is not like a fourth line, energy line. I think this is going to be a legit matchup line that they're going to use to try to keep the puck away from the opponent. opponent's best players. All right, Corey, on the USA side, obviously, I think the Goteer line seemed like it had a decent dose of the Canada's kind of matchup line, but the BC line, specifically Ryan Leonard, I think, really was one of the standout stories of this game. Yeah, I mean, I've liked the BC trio, even though they haven't always been a trio,

there was some line mixing up in the first game. And of course, not the three of them aren't on the same power play. unit the three of them being Will Smith Gay-Paro and as you mentioned, Ryan Leonard, who is named player the game against Canada today. For my money, I think they've been USA's best line at even strength.

I mean, when Will Smith or Gay-Paro touches the puck. I mean, the way their brains work, their skill, their vision are just outstanding. I think Smith, through their first two games, for me, has been their best player at even strength. I think he's been outstanding in the preterm. We'll see when the real game starts,

but he looks like he's making an impact. and, you know, when they have the puck, you know, so much happens. I just, I think, you know, right now they've been listed as quote unquote the third line. And I, you know, it's, this is pre-termination. You don't want to read too much into ice time. But it seems that, you know, USA was trying to play the Goch-J line a lot, trying to play the Nazar line a lot. But I think if this keeps up going into the real games,

they're going to have to start leaning on these, the BC line, even though they are younger than the Nazar line and younger than the Goce line. And so much of that, Chris, just comes down to how automatic it looks for these guys to play with each other. It's second nature at this point. Will Smith knows where Gabe Perra is going to be. Gabe Perra knows where Ryan Leonard is going to be. And it makes for some really easy tick-tac toes. Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

I mean, just the incredible, like, I don't know how many blind passes in the space they hit. I mean, you know, like, for other players, you would be nervous about some of the plays that they make. But, you know, to Corey's point, too, there were a couple of instances about, like, when in terms of how Will Smith and Gabe Perot touch, like their puck touches, their first touch is always great. It's like perfect. Even the puck's bouncing on them. They find a way to settle it.

You know, they make these little kind of slip passes and drop passes and all these different things where it's just like, you know, their brain is operating at a different level than so many of the players on there. And nobody knows where it's going except for them. Like it's just amazing to kind of watch that work. And then, you know, I think Ryan Leonard is one of those players where we talk about,

you know, his physicality, his shot, those different things. But gosh, you watch him with his hands as well and the little plays that he can make. I mean, he scored a nice goal where he was in, you know, kind of sent the goalie guessing and was able to get a backhand in. I mean, it was wide open. But still, you know, he makes the play. And I think his puck touches are really good. So I think that that group, you know, three of them are, they're all in the power play. They're separate. But, you know, there's so much to like about the way that they're playing right now. And, you know, The thing about Ryan Leonard in both pre-tournament games against Sweden against Canada, the amount of grief he generated from the other team in terms of extra shots after the whistle,

trying to get into his head. I mean, it was just very clear that he was annoying to everybody. So when you have a player that was a 51 goal score last year, a guy who has been on a tear through November in his college at Boston College, I mean, he is playing at the top of his game right now, and that is a great thing for Team USA. Team USA also got some contributions down in the lineup, Canada not alone in that, Oliver Moore.

And I think Quinn Finley had the first goal tonight. But Corey, my question, I think it's been the question around Team USA since we started looking at it is the blue line. And I think, obviously, Lane Hudson has a remarkable game winning goal in overtime, strips the puck off, back, takes it, and scores. Who's going to be the shutdown guy, though, for this USA blue line? line. It is a good question. As you said, Hudson, you know, scores the great overtime goal. I had an absolutely remarkable primary assist on Quinn Finley's goal to open the game there for the

United States. But it's unclear who's going to be the tough minutes matchup player for U.S. I think some were hoping would be Ryan Chesley. I thought he was better today. Wasn't so good in the first game against Sweden. You know, I think Zeefe Boyeum has had his struggles at time down the line up. I think there's some decisions on whether the sixth defenseman is going to be Sam Roselle or Eric Polkamp. I think both had decent enough games today to at least, you know, pitch their case to the team U.S.

brass. Zeev Boyum has really struggled defensively and is probably going to have to be, you know, sheltered in some capacity by the coaching staff. So the one guy that I think that's left that I haven't really mentioned is Drew Fortescue, who is an 18-year-old, mind you, but he's one of the only defensemen on, you know, who has size. mobility and some tenacity in his game. And from what I've seen so far, maybe Chris just agrees,

but I mean, for Ford's been on the ice, he seems to be the only defenseman who I haven't noticed in a significant negative manner when it comes to his defensive play. Yeah, I would agree with that. You know, I think that Forteskees' skating ability has been on display here and that he does have that mobility factor. And I think that, you know, he's played his way into being a higher minute.

defensemen for this team. You know, to what our concern was was the USA's ability to defend the interior. And we saw a number of instances where Canada's bigger forwards were able to get to the middle pretty easily. And also, I thought the power, or the penalty kill looked awful today. And that was another thing where, you know, there was. And a lot of it was because they were allowing so many shots from the slot. And it was just like, how is this even, you know, you're not going to win hockey games if you're,

and you're not going to have a high penalty kill rate if you're, if you're giving that much up. And every single defenseman was getting a turn. So it wasn't like they had two set guys that were going to be in there. So I think once they figure out, and I think Fortescue will be a primary penalty killer. I'd imagine Ryan Chesley will be a significant penalty killer for the team. Seamus Casey with his skating ability, I think he's going to kill. And I even think Hudson's going to kill some penalties as well. So, you know, I think that this is going to be an interesting kind of situation for USA to look at.

I do think, you know, Sam Renzel has, he's the biggest defenseman. I think he's made a case. He's made a strong case to be in the top, in their six, you know, but it's again, you kind of just look at a lot of these guys, they're going to be entering this tournament with eyes open to a very, very new challenge to a lot of them. Renzel being one of them, Eric Polkamp being one of them. they haven't really played on this kind of stage before. And even though they play in college hockey and are in big buildings and everything like that,

there's just a different level of attention. So, you know, I think the key for them and what they always knew is that they have to, they have to get established possession. There were way too many shifts in that third period where they got absolutely caved in. They had chances to get pucks out and they were getting pucks taken away from them. I thought that was an area where Zeev Bouem and Eric Polkamp, they had one shift where they were just kind of caved in for, almost two minutes it felt like.

And those are the things that have to be cleaned up before USA is going to have success in the tournament. But just getting pucks up to that forward group is going to have to be a priority and keeping the puck at the other end of the ice, I think is the recipe for success. Any concern? I mean, obviously, they come away with the win here in overtime. There are any concern that it got to overtime considering, you know, at one point you leave this game 5-3?

I don't think so. I really don't, you know, like I think it was one of those situations where USA clearly took their foot off the gas. It was like, all right, well, we're up, you know, we're kind of zipping it around and no big deal. And then Canada was like, hey, we would actually like to win this game. And so the physicality ramped up, the intensity ramped up. And that's when we saw the forecheck getting established more by Canada.

And so USA kind of had to adjust to that. And I think they were pretty late to adjust to that. But they eventually did. And then it was more even kind of towards the end of the third period. And then in overtime, I thought that USA's skill and speed were, more evident than what Canada had. So I don't think there's a huge concern for the U.S. I still think on paper they have the best overall team.

But as Corey said, there are enough questions about it where you can say, yeah, they could be the gold medal favorite, but you can make a lot of cases for Canada. And one team that even, you know, I don't know if they'll win gold. I don't think they'll win gold. But I think even Slovakia is in the mix to be like a metal contending team for this tournament. Yeah, disruptor for sure. I think Finland and Slovakia have

potentially new disruptors I mean Finland's beat Now when they played Slovakia It's like I didn't have Adam Gaye And net and they didn't have divorce key in But they beat up I think 5-1 And then they beat Chekia 4-1 in the pre-tournament I know they're missing some key players

But that Finland team has some You know very nice underrated prospects on their team We've talked about the goalies And I think we've kind of had a sense That it was going to be a battle That would rage for a while But did you get any clarity between Augustine and Fowler out of these two pre-tournament games?

They split them both 50-50. Nope, and not for Canada either. I have a guess. That's who I think will be the quarterfinal goalier for Canada, the U.S., but I would be surprised if you got an honest answer from those coaching stats. And you said, who's starting for you on January 2nd? I'm pretty sure they would say we don't know yet. Because I think for the U.S., I think Jacob Fowler,

who had a really just okay game today, And Trey Augustine, between his two appearances, he didn't, I think he's maybe mildly better than Fowler, but not in a significant manner. And then on Canada side, you know, they started Mathis Rousseau again today to try and get him some more confidence. After Rousseau, so, showing against Switzerland. And he made a couple of tough saves, but he also led him, you know, some shots he wish he could have back to. And I think Samuel St. Hilaire looked okay what he played. I just, there's a lot of uncertainty in goal for these two teams. And frankly, I think there's a lot of uncertainty for me going to this tournament as to

who are the goal to goaltenders for a lot of these teams. Who is going to be the goalie that shined? It could be someone on, it could be one of the finished goalies. It could be Adam Gayon, or Michael Rebalby leaned on as the Czech goalie will find out. I think particularly on the powerhouses, which is Canada, USA, even Sweden, where we all kind of think Hugo Havel would be their goalie. but he, you go have, it hasn't been very good for two years. I think he's kind of riding the fact that he had that darling performance

of the U18 World Championships, but he's been a sub-900 goalie in Sweden the last two seasons. So I think there's a lot of goaltending questions I have going into this tournament. And even on the ones that we think are good, like can Adam Guyon repeat what he did last year? Or will he just be a good, not amazing goalie for Slovak? We're going to see over the coming 10 days. All right, Corey, as you talked about kind of the uncertainty, it got me thinking this could be a tournament where we see plenty of fireworks. And I think that is a natural lead-in to the all-tournament teams and our kind of unofficial,

official, however you want to tournament predictions here on the, on the, it's not quite the eve of the tournament, but we're basically at the tournament's doorstep here. So let's just go around and kind of give people a little primer for who we expect to see in the mix for these teams. And I think we could probably start with Chris here on this one. if you want to lead us off and give us your expected all tournament forwards. Yeah. So forwards, you know, I think it's going to be really interesting.

The guy that I've got eyes on to be part of this team, even though I'm not, I don't have necessarily high hopes for the team, but I think Yuri Kulich is going to be one of the guys, the amount of ice time he's going to get for Czechia, the amount of goals that I expect him to be responsible for for that team. The fact they do have a top line that can hang with other, you know, top, top unit. I think that he's he's one of those guys where I just think he's going to get the job done for the checks and be part of it. Also, you know, Macklin Celebrini's on my all tournament team. I think that the what we've seen from him for Canada, he's their best player. He's their best player. He's a 17-year-old, but he's their best player. Most talented, most reliable. He was the best player in the pre-tournament game. He didn't have that suspension. So now that wipes that slate clean. So I got Celebrini on it. And then, you know, I think when it's a, when it's a, when it's a host tournament, you're usually going to probably see somebody from the host country, but I'm not going to do it because I think that the, the amount of goals that I expect the U.S. to score is pretty high. And I'll tell you know, we've talked about the Smith-Paro Leonard line in that chemistry. Yeah, I am totally bought into that.

But I really think that this is going to be a cutter goche tournament. I, you know, he's, he was okay today against Canada, but I think really he's going to be a number one center for this. team. Rucker McGroorty is going to be back. That's going to make that line better. And I think that, you know, Cutter Goce is going to be a top score. So I've got Goce, Celebrini, and Coolidge is my three for all tournament forwards. I'll agree with you on two of those. I like Gochie and Celebrini. I got to go with Philip Beesstead on there. I think you mentioned the host country factor. I also think Sweden's just going to be really successful. And you tend to see these tournament teams skewed in favor of the teams that are still alive at the very end. And I expect those to be the

three meddling countries. So I'll go one from each of them on my forward all tournament team. Unfortunately, if I had to be honest, my forebought would look exactly like Chris's. But this is meant to be a debate format. So I have to say he's extremely wrong on at least one of them. Yeah. And I'm going to swap out Yeri Kulich for Dalbo, Dvorsky. I'm doing that because I predict that Slovakia has a better chance to go deeper

into the middle rounds, so he'll get another game or two and a chance to get more points. Because even though I think Yuri Kulich is excellent in prospect, I think this check team is significantly weaker than last year's team, and I'm not convinced they can get out of the quarterfinals. All right. Corey, do you want to take us through the defense here? Sure. I think the one that will be on everyone's pre-turnament predictions will be Lane Hudson. And I mean, you saw that the how we played today. I mean, this is a guy who's scored points at the world championships level. I think everyone, I said, I think expects him to come into this tournament and to provide an impact at this level.

Then I think there's two other players that I'm looking at to provide a really significant impact, at least offensively. And that would be either accident Sand and Pelica from Sweden or Denton Matechuk from Canada. As you said before, Max, I think there's going to be a host country bias. And I think also think Axel Sending Pelica is a hell of a player. He's having a great year in Sweden, play at this tournament already. So my vote's going to him. I think it's going to be Hudson and Sandin Pelka will be the two best defense

map this tournament. That would be my guess too. But would it shock you if Alia Salmanson steals the show a little bit as just a huge minutes guy for Sweden? Like I think if we're going to do this on the interest of radio and I'm supposed to change it up. Yeah, no, he's not good. No, they're not even playing him that much. If anybody, I think it would be like, we'll lander.

Okay. All right. Well, I'm just going to, I'm going to echo you on those two, even though it's bad radio. But just trying to look for a little alternate flavor here. Chris, do you have any shakeup for us? Yeah, man, going. I'm going to have to. I'm going to have to. I don't want to. But I'm going to have to. So, I mean, I think Axel Sandine Pelica, he's probably already written an ink on a lot of ballots for, you know, for the, no, you know, no host country bias. They tell us, don't be biased to the host country.

They actually do tell us that in writing. They always tell us that. Yes. Yeah. Please. Yeah. And if you, and they also say if you like, if you like fill the ballot with all Sweden, you're out.

Your ballots out. Taking it out. No way. Do they, do they like, will they take out of ballots you think if like someone on Sweden has like one point as a forward and he's on the all, he's on the all 14 for some reason? I would hope. I would hope so. Well, I think, yeah, I think that the double IHF does review them and then like if it's, if it's

completely. unreasonable, they toss it. I mean, they don't have to tell us. Maybe they don't even look at what we write in. Maybe they just pick it themselves. There have been a few years. I'm like, who voted for this? But, you know, I think for me, so yeah, I mean, like, if we're being honest, it would be

Lane Hudson and Axel Sandine Pelica. But since we have to do this thing where we embrace debate, we don't have to. Nobody's telling us to do that. We're doing it because we respect you the listeners. So I'm going to give you one. Similar to Corey's because he stole the whole idea of Dahlvore Dvorsky. I love that idea because I do think Slovakia is going to have a big tournament. I'm going to throw Maxim Sturback in there as well.

I think that he is going to be the big minutes guy for Slovakia this year. Really, they need him. They need them to play a lot and they need them to be very, very good. Will the points necessarily be there? I'm not sure. But he is going to be a guy that's going to play a lot of minutes. So real ballot is Sandy Pelican, Hudson. the fake ballot is Axel Sending Pelica and Maxime Sturback, and we move on.

Do you submit your ballot to the double F, do you label them real ballot and fake ballot, submit to? I don't submit to because then that would be very much against the rules. And I respect the process. Well, that's true. The only thing I can see that might be make a twist in those two would be that, again, maybe Mataychuk has a huge tournament or something. Maybe Oliver Bonks done pretty good in the pre-true. tournament. Maybe he rises to power play one and gets a big offensive role. But like when watching Sweden and USA, I don't think Sweden or USA has a clear second power play unit, clear power play one.

I think there's the ones you look at it. Like, okay, that's probably power play one. But the other one is going or the other one is fresher in terms of just, you know, who's been on the ice. They go to the other one. So like, I could see Seamus Casey have a big term. I mean, he's having a hell of a year in Michigan right now. Would it shock you if he had more points than Hudson had a better tournament than Hudson, it wouldn't shock me. I think Hudson, you know, we all think Hudson would be better, but I think it's very possible. And like I said, I think, you know, based on the pretermine of the landers being leaned on by Sweden, but the second powerplay guy would be Matthias Havelet, who, again, having a very nice year,

you know, a big part of this age group before, has been a top defenseman of his age group before. So it wouldn't shock me if he had a big tournament as well. All right, I will go first on the goalies. I've gotten to sit back on these other ones. I am going to take my Slovak here. and I'm going to take Adam Guyon. I think usually when they're at the team that kind of disrupts the powers and puts a scare into somebody,

and whether it's in pool play or in a quarterfinal or even in a semifinal, I think the goalie from that nation tends to get a lot of the credit. And I think Guyon's just also really talented. So I like him as my alternative bully. I can't remember the last time a goalie got back-to-backtop goalie at this tournament. Did Campbell do it once? No, no, he didn't. No, because he had a great goalie.

great one and then really bad one. So yeah, yeah, no. I think you're right. Yeah, I don't know if it's ever happened. I mean, it may have happened at some point. Yeah. You know, yeah. I mean, there is a Google, but, but either way, I mean, I think Max's pick is fine.

So, uh, so, so is it my turn, Corey, or are we letting you go next? I can go. Uh, I'm going to be, I'll be a contrarian here. And I'm going to go with the Seattle pick on Finland, Nicholas Coco. who when I've watched him, I think, has looked very good. You know, he's athletic, he's intelligent. He's playing against men this year and doing okay at the legal level. I think Finland as kind of to the same point, Max made,

I think they have potential to maybe upset one of the favorites in this tournament. And if they do, I think Coco is going to be a big part of it. You go, Nick Coco. I was going to go there. Good job. I'm right on top of it. Don't worry about it. That's actually a great pick, Corey, because I really,

like him too. Watching him at the World Junior Summer Showcase this year, I thought he was one of the better goalies there. Had some really great games and, you know, didn't have a lot of help defensively. And I do wonder if that will be necessarily, I am a little bit concerned about Finland's blue line.

I think it's fine, but you know, I think there's, you know, that'll be interesting to see. So, all right. So this is going to be so you've got, you've got Guy on, we've got Coco. I'm definitely not picking any of the Canadian goalies. tell you that right now. This is a spoiler alert there.

The thing is like, so USA we kind of expect them to tandem this prelim round. But, you know, and that is usually not a good thing for your chances of winning this award. But there's so much uncertainty

surrounding a lot of, you know, like, will Michael Harbaal get all the starts for the checks? Will Hugo Havillad be the goalie for Sweden. So I do think, you know, I think that this award is typically won in the quarterfinals, like after, you know, basically that's why Adam Guyon was the guy last year.

And he also beat USA. So I think, I think with that, I am going to say, Trey Augustine. I do think that eventually it is going to be Trey Augustine's net. more of a read of the tea leaves than anything definitive because USA will not say who the number one goalie is. They don't want to pick the number one goalie. I think either one of them are very capable. I actually liked Jacob Fowler a lot today until just a horrific gaffe in the game,

very uncharacteristic of his play normally, but that was not a great moment. but I do think that there's a familiarity with Augustine. I think there's a comfort with him. He's coming into the tournament playing some of his better hockey. He was the goalie of the week in Big Ten, and I think maybe the goalie of the month of November as well in the Big Ten. And just, you know, he's played pretty well down the stretch. I think experience matters.

And I do think that, you know, he'll ultimately be the guy that gets it. But I have also said in recent weeks that I thought Jacob Fowler would be the guy. So take it with a green of salt, everybody. And producer Chris has chimed in on our prior point, by the way, to say the last time there was a back-to-backtop goalie at the World Juniors was back

in 1978. So the first two ever... Do you want to attempt that name, Corey? Hold on. You want to attempt that name, Corey? I'm going to pass on that. I think it might I'm going to do it. I'm going to do it. I'm going to try. I'm going to say Alexander Tiznick.

Tisnick. Yeah. But that 77 and 78 were the first two official years of the world juniors. So it has not happened since the first two years the tournament was held. And but to your point, Max, I think Guyon has the goods. Like I think there is an absolute case for him. And if we think Slovakia is going to be the disruptor that they can be up. They have a, I was just doing my preview. 11 of their forwards on their current roster played on the team last year.

like 11. That is a ton of experience. And then they've got a number of first rounders. So watch out for Slovakia. I don't give a lot of betting advice. I like those. Can you even bet on this tournament? You can.

There are lines out there. Oh, yeah. There are lines out there. And if you were, if you were an eagle-eyed better three weeks ago, Canada was at like minus 150. And then USA was plus 300 on one of the, on one of the, I'm not sure which one, on one of the sports books.

I was like, oh, somebody, somebody doesn't, like, I, that has changed since the rosters came out, but Eagle-I betters out there.

That's the, right, or that's the, we, we think Benson's coming back. We think Kortchinsky's coming back. And then they don't come back. Yep.

And then it's like, oops. Speaking of guys coming back, dude, what did you, what did you think of, what did you think of, what did you think,

that's kind of been an interesting kind of sub-story line that he kind of comes in as the first line center, first power play. You know, that's probably something that was promised to Boston and to him for being loaned out. And already by the second pre-termine, never mind the real game, he's not in the first line anymore. He's not on the first power play anymore. Yeah. You know what? I think we've talked about this offline a little bit.

Like, I think Quattra as a complimentary player is a really good fit. He's a good fit as a complimentary player. he is not the guy and he can't i don't think that there's any you know the guy is macklin celebrini that's pretty much been established but plautra you you expect him to play up your lineup you expect him to do all those things but you know you're also now putting him in a situation he's just been playing with n hl players playing with junior players is a completely different step i think he has the hockey sense the reason that he that he plays so well in the nchl is he's such a smart player um and he knows where to be knows where to put the puck and different things like that

and now he's playing with players that don't have that same level, I don't think. And so that's going to be interesting to watch. But yeah, I mean, through the two games that I saw him play, you know, the first one I kind of chalked up to he just got there. He's getting familiar. And then against USA, he had a couple of looks, but never was really a huge threat. So definitely a little bit of a concern, but, you know, it is what it is. There's quite a few of those Canadian fours that are looked kind of vanilla. Even though, again, they had the 45 shots today and, you know, goes overtime, five goals.

But I think they scored six against Switzerland might be misremembering the number. You know, I think there's a few of them that have looked pretty much. Like, I think, like, you know, like, Poitra, I think Fraser Minton for a guy who's played NHL games hasn't really stood out. Both of the NHL players have been really, I think, stood out. Like, I think Jordan Dume, the prolific QMJHL score, hasn't really stood out in a major way. So even Massivoy, given how prolific a junior score he's been. He's gotten his points, but I wouldn't say he's been extremely noticeable.

So I think they are really hoping a lot of these forwards take a step when the real game starts. All right. Let's go now to our final predictions here. And Chris, you had three, I think, Americans on your team. Does that mean you've got the U.S. to win gold? I do. And, you know, I have, I always feel like, so I obviously cover the U.S. very closely and have for a long time. And so I always feel like I kind of know their warts really well.

And so I, as a result, that has led for many years, me not picking them as opposed to picking them to win the tournament. So this year I am picking them. I think, you know, you've got eight first round draft picks in your top nine forwards. You've got a number of players that can play in a lot of different situations. You have essentially two first power play units. You have two goaltenders that you can trust to be a number one for your team. And, you know, you have seven returning players. And I think that that is the way this lineup is structured, even with the defense kind of being a bit of a question mark.

I do think they're going to get challenged and pushed in those tougher games. But I do think that they have enough to kind of survive that. I think they'll get the goaltending necessary to be a competitive team here. So in the end, yes, I will, I'm going to go ahead and pick the United States for gold. which may be the kiss of death, as it were. Silver and bronze? My silver medal pick is going to be Sweden. I just think that they,

I think both USA and Sweden will finish atop their groups in the pre-tournament or in the preliminary round. And I think that will create a path very conducive to both of them playing in the gold medal game. And then for bronze, I've been waffling between Canada and Slovakia. So I'm going to go off the beaten path. I'm going to say Slovakia. All right, Corey, how about you?

The gold and silver picks would be similar for me. I have thought maybe a week ago that I would have picked Canada to be the top team in that group. Like I said, they didn't get, you know, we'd go a couple weeks ago at, but they didn't get Benson back from Buffalo. They did not get Gwarkinski from Chicago. You know, watching the first two games, Matt Guattra hasn't really stood out, even though he looked so. good in Boston through the first few months of the NHL season. And then you lose Tristan Luno, you lose Tanner Mollendike. And the combination of that makes me think that it will be Sweden who comes out and makes the gold medal game instead of Canada.

And then in terms of bronze medal, I would pick Canada to win that. I still think they have their issues, but this is still extremely talented team, deep team. Yes, they have goalie questions, but plenty of other teams have goalie questions. too, and they would be my pick for the bronze. I'm going to go with Sweden to win it. Shades of the Swedish U-18 team winning it as the host country a few years back. I also think they're just really deep everywhere on the roster. And I think that extra host boost gets it done for them, U.S. as the silver and Canada or the bronze.

Who do you think is Sweden's death player? I mean, I get the question. The question is like, who's their go-to and a difference maker? I think B-Stat is such a handful down low and he was super productive at this tournament last year. It wouldn't shock me if he has like a 13, 14-point tournament this time around. And I think that the depth this time you get the Ogren, Oslin, La Carabaki, I think it's a depth thing more than it is a...

Right, I guess my question is you could pick Beestead, you could pick Osland, you could pick... I think Beestat. You could pick Axelzan and Pelica. And after you pick whichever guy you pick, I'd ask you, how many players down the U.S. line do you go before you say I prefer the guy on Sweden to the guy on the U.S.

So that would be my counter argument on that front. Yeah, I hear it. I mean, I hear it. I just think that it is a deep lineup that I get the U.S.A. as deep forward-wise, too. I think I prefer Sweden's blue line to the U.S. Yes. And I think it's a toss-up on goal. I think

talent-wise, you'd expect the U.S. to be better, but we have seen in the past that it doesn't always work out that way. I don't know. I'll take it a little bit of a shot here. I don't want to copy I don't know you guys either. All right. Just, just, uh, I think that the case, but I agree on the blue line difference.

U.S. Of the three contenders, USA's blue line is third out of third. Yeah. And I think, you know, when you talk about even like the star power there, like, it's not necessarily that you need to be the biggest star to be one of the most impactful players of this term. Like if you're, especially the size that Bistead has, I don't think any, either USA or Canada have a guy who can cause that kind of havoc necessarily.

So that's where I lean. That's why he's on mild tournament team. and that's going to do it for us today. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show's Prospect Series. We will have a lot more for you throughout the World Junior Tournament. You can catch more of Chris

over at Flow Hockey and more from us at YouTube.com at the Athletic Hockey Show. Right now through the end of the year, you can gift a one-year subscription to the athletic for 1999 or a two-year subscription for $3999 when you visit theathletic.com

slash hockey show. Talk to you soon and happy holidays.