The Athletic Hockey Show - What did we get wrong about the 2024-25 NHL season?

Episode Date: July 7, 2025

They say hindsight is 20/20, that you can easily see what the right move was looking back on an event, but of course not beforehand. Today, Max and Jesse look back on the past season and determine what they got wrong and how they can learn from those mistakes going forward. Before that, the guys discuss the latest free agent signings, including Nikolaj Ehlers joining the Hurricanes and Brent Burns signing with the Avalanche. Plus, Sebastian Cossa’s difficult path to becoming the Red Wings’ starting goalie and Jesse’s “Winners and losers of the offseason NHL goalie carousel” article. Hosts: Max Bultman and Jesse GrangerExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Jesse Granger for what feels like a much more relaxed episode of the athletic hockey show, Jesse. It's July 7th. We're past the fireworks. And we're into the portion of the offseason where we can just kind of kind of zen out a little bit, get a little philosophical with it. I totally agree. And you can feel it as a hockey writer.

Like this week feels more relaxed. things are settled. There's still plenty to write and plenty of analysis to do, but we know what these teams are going to look like for the most part. It's kind of nice to take a step back and look at it as a bigger picture. Yeah, like a month ago or so, I went on a, I guess it on like a fantasy hockey podcast and they wanted me to like do like

fantasy breakdowns in the Red Wings. I'm happy to do it. But it all might change. Like by the time any of this, anyone's actually drafting. And as it turns out it really didn't. So I guess that worked out fine in terms of the Red Wings off season. But I just think this time of year is much more conducive to real big picture

analysis than it is in the two months leading up to that where it's all just, where's this guy going to go. Well, if they get this guy. And now we know some of those. And we actually know some more of those today than we did, you know, where we left you off last time you heard this show. Nicola Ailers has picked his destination. He is going to the Carolina Hurricanes on a six-year deal. I thought that was a little interesting, that he doesn't go for seven years, which would have been the maximum, but he was the biggest real fish left on the free agent market after everyone signed on Free Agency Eve. And in Carolina always seemed like a natural fit.

What's kind of your reaction, though, to it being official? Yeah, it seems like a good fit for both sides. Eilers is as, to me, he reminds, he feels like a hurricane. And I was trying to think, like, as soon as he signed, I was like, okay, that feels right. He seems like a Carolina hurricane. Why does he seem like that to me? And I think it's just the steady, like, consistency that he has. And that's what Carolina is.

You pretty much know what you're getting from the Hurricanes every year. You know what they're getting from them every night? They play the same type of game. He is a 20 to 30 goal scorer just about every single time he wakes up. He isn't a big guy. He's smaller, but he plays like a mean style of hockey. Like he's kind of a power forward goes to the net. He's got a ton of skill, great hands.

I think he fits in with an offensively minded team like the Hurricanes. It's a perfect bit for me. The speed factor, too, feels so Caroline. I mean, you mentioned that he's a smaller guy. If I have any critique of it, and it's not a real critique. I think if you can get Nick Ehlers, you have to get Nick Eilers. They are a little small in their top six, top nine here, right? And there's two teams like that, really, that are jumping out to me in the same conference as the Florida Panthers.

So you know you're going to have to go through them. It's Carolina and Tampa. And those two teams are going to have to kind of find a way to beat Florida without playing the Florida Panthers game. Yeah. I mean, you're going to have to use your advantages speed, try to be. play a track meet with him, get up and down. It's going to be interesting. He, Eilers is also hurt all the time. That's like the, to me, that's the big concern. And the way LTIR works, it's not like if the contract, it's not like you get really screwed on the contract. If the guys hurt all the time,

you can take the cap it off the books. But it is when signing a six-year deal to a guy who I feel like every time I turn around, Eilers has been hurt for Winnipeg the last couple years. So we'll see if I don't like to label guys injury prone. Maybe it was just a bad couple of years, but we'll see moving forward. The other thing with Carolina, I think that everyone will be wondering about is your expertise, right? They still really don't have that guy in goal. And Freddie Anderson has had some really good stretches of play.

But I don't think he's in that tier of however big you want to say it is, eight guys, 10 guys, 12 guys. We're going into a playoff series. You go, this is the guy. No real concern about what's going to happen. Yeah. And I thought Peter Kachetkov took a nice step last year. I'm much higher on him after watching last.

last season than I was when the season began. So I think he's a young goalie who's still getting better. And maybe they're hoping he can take that like level up and become. Because I think right now, he's fine. Like Cachetkov and Anderson's kind of, I think Anderson has a higher ceiling and his numbers when he's played have been very good. Like when you compare Freddie Anderson's numbers over his career over seasons, he's an elite goalie. We just don't think of him that way because he's hurt all the time and because he's never really gone on a deep playoff run. His numbers are very good. He is an efficient goalie. He's athletic. He has great hand-eyed near the net. I feel like that guy picks pucks out of crowds that no other goal he does. He's, he has got a really high level. We just never

see it consistent enough because he's always hurt and because he hasn't been good at the right time of the year in the playoffs. So I think, yes, it's still a question mark for them. I don't, I wouldn't put them in the same category as Edmonton where it's like, I don't think these guys can get it done. They have to get someone else. I do think Anderson can get it done. He's capable of it. It's down there within him somewhere, but he's been in the NHL a long time, and we haven't seen him stay healthy for a long playoff run. So yes, certainly some concerns in that. And the other difference between them at Edmonton is that I think the playoff, you know, hiccup, the hurdle, whatever it might be, is a little more shared in Carolina, right?

Like that's not a team that scored at a level like the Oilers have, obviously, to be able to say, yeah, it's really just this goaltending thing. They've got overall questions, but whether they can get over the hump in the Eastern Conference finals. And I think Nicolailers is going to help. with it, but it's not like he's a proven playoff guy either. So it's an interesting marriage in that way, but they got better. And I think that's all that any team can ask for is that they got better. It's not about you, you probably aren't going to check every single need you have in an offseason. Yeah, I mean, you added someone big. It feels like in this, like the Martyr to Vegas, and then everyone else just kept their guys. Like everyone kept their guys. So I would say other than

Marner to Vegas, Carolina got maybe the biggest win of the summer, adding a player of Eilers caliber. Winnipeg replaces him with Gustav Nyquist. You can probably squint and see some similarities, I guess, in the player profile, but you're getting like what Nicola Ehlers we think will look like on like the last year of the six-year contract with the Carolina Hurricanes is now what the Winnipeg Jets are getting in Gustav Nyquist. Yeah, still an okay player. He's a solid player, but he's not certainly not a difference maker like Eilers and he's getting older. I think Winnipeg has a similar problem. We were just talking about the size difference between Florida and Carolina or Tampa.

Winnipeg, it's on the blue line. I think Winnipeg's defense is good, but they're small. And we keep seeing Connor Hellebuck struggle in the playoffs. And a big part of it is because he can't see any of the releases. I do think that, like that's my concern when I look at Winnipeg is, are they going to be big and strong enough on the back end to maximize their best player, which is Connor Hellebuck. So some major concerns about that team going.

forward. They're still obviously really good, but are they good enough to win at all? Yeah. I mean, Dylan Sandberg is where they're one key unsigned player right now. I don't really have any doubt. They're going to find a way to get that done. But he is the key in that. He is their one guy on that back end that really can play a high volume of minutes and have that size and be a difference maker in that facet. Let's go to Colorado, another team kind of out west. I guess they're technically in the central. But Brent Burns is going to the avalanche. Speaking of the kind of the Carolina carousel here. I'm generally of the mind that there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

If there's an addendum to that, though, I guess the one thing is, if you're the, and especially, you know, at the dollars Burns signed for. But Colorado is squarely in this window, right? I don't think you want to go two or three more years and then be trying to strain this. I think you got to strike while the iron is sort of hot here and you have two of the best players in the world squarely in their prime. I think Burns can help. I don't know that I think he moves the needle a ton for him. But I do think I came into this offseason thinking they would be able to do more than they ended up doing. I agree that I had higher expectations for maybe them adding some difference makers.

But I do, I have some optimism for Burns that he can kind of maybe not, he's not going to be peak Burns that we saw in San Jose, where he's controlling the entire game. The puck's on his stick all the time. I don't expect that. But I do think we could see a better version of him. When I think of the Aves, what always impresses me the most, what I think they're superpowers. is the thing they do better than any team in the league is they just transition from defense to offense so quickly. And like obviously, Kail McCar, huge part of that.

Girard, those guys are studs. Burns can be a lead at that too. He, like, when the puck gets on his stick, he can turn it quickly the other way. Suddenly, and, like, they've got the speed up front with McKinnon. And, I mean, they've got as much speed forward as any team in the league. If Burns can just get the puck up to those guys as quickly as possible, I really do think that his transition offense, I think he's got good offensive instincts. We could see a better version of him than we saw in Carolina this past year in that system, I think.

And I also think maybe their big addition is the guy who showed up toward the end of their playoff running Gabriel Landiscag. And I don't know what's reasonable to expect out of Landisg over an 82 game season, but you're over that first hump now. And if he's able to give you something meaningful, again, I know we're talking about a 33-year-old Landiscag who hasn't played in two years and a 40-year-old Brent Burns, these are. still guys who have the pedigree that you get into a playoff series and you feel like they can make a difference. Yeah, it's the, the Landiscaug thing becomes interesting because I thought last year when he was on LTIR all year and you didn't have to carry, who cares about his cap hit is, maybe he'll give us something. Well, now the cap hit counts. So if he doesn't something, if he isn't Gabriel Landiscag and he's, it's over for him, well, now all of a sudden it hurts you big time because he's

taking up a huge chunk of the cap, which is something he hasn't done in a couple years. So to me, there's more pressure. Like, they need him more than they did the last year. It was more of like icing on the cake. But now that the cap hits there, it's like he's got to be something good. Like he doesn't have to be peak Landisog, but he needs to be good. Otherwise, they're going to be in trouble because, and that's part of the reason they weren't able to add anyone impactful this off season.

It's because the cap's tight and Landisog's part of that. But is like they have seven million left. I don't know that there's anyone else out there worth $7 million if they, you know, if they didn't get Nick Eilers, like who were they going to spend $7 million on? It would have to be a trade. Yeah. I mean, the free agent, this free agent class was so bad. I look at it as like even when I was like having expectations for what the abs were going to do,

I was thinking on the trade market. Yeah. Or I guess they could have been in on the Marner sweepstakes. Clearly he had a couple teams, if that of that he was even considering and the abs weren't amongst them. So maybe they didn't really have a shot there, but it was definitely going to have to be on the trade market, if not him. To your point about Burns and what he can still do with this age, like if you gave me the choice between signing the deal that the avalanche did, it's a one year with a $1 million base on Burns. And I'm sure obviously some, you expect some of those incentives to hit, but that could come on next year's cap if you needed to.

It can come off of what you have left from this year. If I gave you that deal or I gave you the two-year deal that the shark signed Dimitri Orlov to, which was six and a half million a year, or the Ryan Lindgren deal, which was four and a half million a year for four years. And Lindgren's the guy they traded for. So obviously, that's maybe the most important comp to give.

Which one are you taken? Which avenue? I think I'd bet on Brent Burns. I like the cheap with the potential of upside. I think that the Lindgren and the Orlov contracts are fine. I don't think they're going to be disasters. But I also don't think, like when you're a team as good as the abs and you're trying to spend a little,

like let's make a smaller, cheaper edition. I think the best way to approach that is to do is to look for a move that has the most upside. Which of these deals can be the most like perform overperform the deal? And I think Burns because of how cheap it is and because of his pedigree and how good of an offensive defenseman we've seen him be. I think he has the potential to outplay that cap hit more than Orlov and Lindgren do. The Lindgren is just like this is such a boilerplate number four defenseman contract. I feel like they've been giving out this deal to number four defensemen for 10 years. So it's kind of amazing that it didn't get it a little more by the inflation. But there's, I don't see

Lindgren like way outperforming that either. I don't really see any path from to be a top pair guy. Seattle kind of has to operate like this because they refuse to draft defensemen for whatever reason high in the draft. So they just kind of have to have this stockpile of 27 to 31 year old guys that they can have back there. And there's probably just going to have to be a steady stream of them until they use a high pick on a defenseman that can really be a needle mover for them. they've used everything on forwards. So I guess this is their lot in life right now. They need to hit on some of them forwards too.

Like they need some of those guys, like Maddie Berners, they need those guys to take the next step if they're going to be a consistent playoff team. Like they obviously made it the one year and they upset Colorado in the first round. But the Pacific Division is not the toughest division in the NHL. I watch it as close as anyone. And it is there. Like these playoff spots are if Seattle or Calgary can,

can have some young players take a step. I think that there's playoff spots to be had. All right, well, let's take a quick break right there. We're going to come back. We're going to talk about some of the things we got wrong as we start to reflect on this 2024-25 NHL season. All right, we're back. And Jesse, what I want to do today is as we talk about reflecting on this season,

now that we can all get a breath, I want to talk about some of the things we were wrong about in 2024-25 and maybe some lessons we can carry forward from those same things. So as I say that, what is the first thing that jumps into your hands? head. Yeah, the first thing that comes into my head is when a team shows you who they are in the first month or so of the season, just believe them. Just believe that that's who they are. Because last year, I feel like we had very, very early signs that some teams were maybe not what we expected them to be going into the season. And we just kind of held on to our preconceived notions of these teams way longer than we should have. And I think it's positive and they're both

positive and negative directions. Like on the negative side, Nashville, they won the off season. They got Stamcoast. They got Marcia. So everything looked great. They're finally going to take the next step. They looked awful right off the bat. I don't know about everyone out there. I held on to the fact that this team's going to be able to turn it around and figure it out for way longer that I should have. And the same goes for the Boston Bruins. They had just signed Jeremy Swainman to this massive contract. This team has been good for as long as I can remember. I just refused to believe that they were going to be bad. They said they showed us they were bad and we refused to believe they end up finishing in dead last in that division, even behind Buffalo. So, and then, and then on

the positive side, Washington, you look at that roster. It doesn't look like a contender. It doesn't look like a team that's going to finish first in their division. And we just refused to believe that they were any good right until the end. Even in the playoffs, like they like they didn't go all the way, but I thought that they showed well in the playoffs and they, they proved that they were a legitimate like top five, six team in the NHL. So that's something. that I, going into next season, I'm going to try to remember when these teams show me who they are, believe them. Do we need to carve out, though, for the Edmonton Oilers specifically, a team that is

addicted to starting really bad and making you think? You know, because I look at Edmonton's first month of the season, they start out six, seven, and one, which is admittedly not disastrous, but their only wins in that first month were Philly, Nashville, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Nashville, again, Calgary. And then I guess you get to the ninth, they also beat Vancouver. Not a playoff team in that string there that the Edmonton Oilers beat. And they were under 500. And yeah, they make it all the way back to the Stanley Cup final.

Yeah, I mean, yeah. And like Tampa Bay, I think if I remember right, had a slow start too. I think there are certainly going to be exceptions to it. But I feel like more times than not in hockey, these teams that have these good starts, they end up being good teams. Like, I remember covering the Golden Knights their first season. And I was watching it every day. So, like, I quickly was a believer, like, wow, this team, they forecheck people to death.

Yes, they don't have the names. But I can remember that season. I remember, like, all the way until, like, they were playing the Kings in the first round. And people were, like, had, were giving them no chance to beat the Kings. And they ended up smoking them for nothing and a sweet. But it, even going back to that and then every season since, it just feels like we don't believe in these teams. We don't give them enough credit. We look at the roster.

and it's like sometimes the makeup of the team is just better than the names on the paper are. And for whatever reason, sometimes, whether it's the scheme that the coaches put together, whether it's just the way that these guys play together, we have to start giving these teams credit earlier on. Like, I feel bad for treating Washington the way I did all last year, like basically as an afterthought. Like every time we brought up contenders in the East, like, I never gave Washington any credence all year long.

And I was wrong. Like, they were one of the better. teams in the East. But it was not just you. I mean, that's, that is, I think, a universal thing that we deal with it as media is like there's a lag that we have. And it shows up in a few different ways, right, of like, you talk about looking at names on paper and what to expect from this guy. And I remember when we did our presentation, right, where I went to Bailey Johnson of the Washington Post and asked her for help to kind of, okay, help me shape here. Why, why should people believe in the capitals? And some of the names she was giving me, I was like,

Yeah, okay, that name isn't inspiring. But eventually, as the year goes on, oh, Alexi Proto's is just like an awesome forward, right? Like, it was a guy that I didn't want to believe or I wasn't ready to believe could do that over a full season. And you get to the end of the year and he had 66 points. He was a 30 goal score. He was a selky, you know, fringe, selky ballot guy. And he's just a guy we weren't factoring into this analysis. We were looking at that as a hot streak, right?

You could probably make the same argument for like a Connor McMichael, although I think he actually did. slow down a bit more. Pierre-Luc Dubois, I don't even think going into next season. I don't think anyone's going to be ready to declare it's going to happen again for Dubois because that's who he's been. It's up one, down one. But I think in general, with guys like Protis, with guys like McMichael, we have a delay before we're ready to treat that player as what they've been.

And I don't know if that's like a, oh, been hurt before. I've seen a hot streak before or what, but that's, I think, the biggest factor in why we do that with the teams that are overperforming. And to me, like, looking forward, it's like, okay, well, who are some teams that could come out and, like, we're not going to expect. Calgary comes to mind. Montreal comes to mind. Teams with, like, that are, that seem to be on the upswing with young players.

If one of these teams comes out and is, loses three of their first 15 games, I'm, I'm in. Like, I think, like, I, I, I am trying to learn from this. And when these teams come out, especially a team that appears to be on the upswing, if they, If they come out and have a big month, I'm in on them to start next season. Speaking of, I mean, Montreal was 8, 13, and 3 after December 1st, right? Like, and they come back, and I could not have faded them harder in every single discussion we had about them, right? I was just like, no, they don't play defense. This isn't going to work.

And as the year went on, they just kept winning. And that's the team that I'm struggling the most as I get ready to, you know, going to next year. I got time, thankfully. but like what do I make of the Canadians? They just went out and they were a playoff team last year. They added Noah Dobson. Lane Hudson's a year older. Ivan Demadov's in the fold now.

Like I'm very torn between thinking like I know what I saw with my eyes about the brand of hockey this team played and how I think that tends to go. And the very obvious empirical results that that team was as hot as could be for a long stretch of the second half of last season. And they got better this off season. So what do I do with those two things? Yeah. And I think that I think there's like a perfect explanation for why they started so bad and finished. Like they're getting better. Like they're in the stage of the rebuild where they're learning how to win.

They have so much talent, especially up front. But did they? Like they didn't play that kind of hockey that you would think associate with learning how to win. Well, you can win different ways. I mean, and I think that Dobson is massive. Like I love that addition so much because like you said, this is a team that doesn't defend great. You add a bona fide top pair defensemen, I think. And plus, they've got who I keep saying, I just feel like I say it almost every episode.

One of the most underrated goalies in the NHL, Sam Montembo. You look at the top goalies in Goals Saved Above expected over the last few years. It's all the names you expect, Hellebuck, Igor Shasturkin. And then Sam Montimbo, right up there with those guys every time. He doesn't get nearly enough credit. He was like, I remember when the Four Nations roster was picked and Canada had him as one of their goalies. And like, he obviously wasn't going to play and he wasn't one of the top guys. But I remember the outrage of people seeing Montembo's name on there.

And I'm like, man, are you guys not watching him play? He's freaking awesome. Like this guy, he tracks puck's incredibly well. So that's the thing that I noticed most is like off deflections, off of screens. Like nobody follows the puck better than this guy. He, he's athletic enough. He's a gamer. He, his compete level super.

high. I love watching him play. I think he's good enough to win a bunch of playoff games with if this team can, if the young players can take the next step. Yeah. I mean, I think as we sit here on July 7, if you're going to sketch out your eight playoff teams in the East next year, like, I have a hard time thinking Montreal is not going to be one of my eight. I say that at the same time, when they send that survey out to us in September and they say, like, who's your last year's playoff team that you pick to potentially disappoint. I'm going to have a hard time also not picking Montreal because I just don't know what to make of their makeup, of their style, and maybe it will all resolve itself.

I'm trying to learn a lesson here, but I'm also fighting the instinct. That division is crazy. Holy crap. Like, I was just talking about the Pacific Division. All these teams that we keep waiting to make the step like Ottawa, Montreal, Detroit, Buffalo, and now Boston, who had a bad year, we're expecting them to bounce back. Like, I don't know.

I expect Boston have a better year this year. They can't all make the playoffs. Only four of them can, or I guess five, can make the playoffs in that division. And five did last year. Yeah. And you look at the top of it,

and it's like, well, who's going to fall off the top? Toronto, Tampa, Florida. Like, I guess you could argue Ottawa is the team that, like, if you're going to put one of those teams that didn't make it in, you have to subtract somebody. I guess Ottawa is the one you would look at,

But even them, like I think Ottawa is still solid. That division is an absolute, like, just brutal division to try to make the playoffs in compared to the other three. And I liked what I saw from Ottawa in the playoffs every bit as much as what I saw from Montreal, right? Like, you can make all the same cases that they got these young guys that just are getting better. Now you had Dylan Cousins into the mix. They don't have a Demadov coming in. I think that's probably like the big difference. And they don't have it.

They didn't make a Dobson level move. So you're probably right that Ottawa was in that like kind of eight hole and they're going to have to. to fight off Columbus and hey, what's Boston going to look like if everybody's healthy? And if Jeremy Swayman looks normal. But the east is a gauntlet. I mean, you're already looking at like six or seven teams fighting for those two wildcard spots because we do feel like we kind of know who the divisional teams will be from both the Atlantic and the metro.

And yet I'm sure there will be a Washington or something that comes out of there, not literally Washington. A team like Washington last year that comes out of there and floors us because that's what this is about. I'll tell you one team that in the metro that I was expecting last year. to be a lot better than they were as the New York Rangers. And Peter tried to tell me, to his credit, like Peter tried to tell me on this pod.

He tried to tell me in person. He tried to tell me in text. And I was just like, no, come on. They've got enough good players, Peter. Something was amiss in New York all along. Do you buy after the moves that they've made? They bring in Vladislav Gavrakov, although it does come at the expense of Kiannir Miller, who they have to trade away.

Do you buy that the New York Rangers will bounce back this year? or have they just shown us who they are? At this point, I've lost faith. I was with you. I was wrong about the Rangers. I was very high on them. I think I even had them in my conference finals to start the year. Like I partially just my goalie bias.

I love Igor Shusirkin. And I think he's, I think the world of him. But same. I just at this point, they didn't make any major changes. Like you said, they bring in a defenseman, but they lose a defenseman who may even have a higher ceiling. and I just don't think that this team looks different enough to expect different results out of. And that sucks because I like Igor Shostirken.

I want him to be playing meaningful playoff games. I think he's been the best playoff goalie in the league the last couple of years. I mean, him and Sergey Babrovsky, but I don't know if he's going to get the chance to play in him because I just don't see improvements. I don't see how this team got better. What I think they would probably tell you is it happened in a move during last season that They were already too really out of it to see the fruits of. And that was J.T. Miller.

And if you now come into this year with your centers, is J.T. Miller and Vincent Trocheck, you can flex Zabanaed to the wing. He can maybe play 3C at times if you need him to. I do think I like their center position more than I did. And J.T. Miller is a guy who has shown us he can go for 100 points. I don't know that I expect that from him, but it's in there. And I think if you say what's their path to doing it,

it's J.T. Miller is every bit as good as they clearly are betting that he is. And Gavrikov, well, I agree with you. Miller probably has a higher, like, upside because he's so much younger. For the next three years, I am taking Gavrakov as the better player. He's shown he could be one of the best shutdown defensemen in the NHL. Now, granted, you're going to put Miller in the perfect environment for defensemen. We know that defensemen go to Carolina and look amazing.

Everyone goes to Carolina and looks amazing. But I do think for the next three years, which is clearly the window the Rangers are betting on, there's a good chance Gavrokov is a legit upgrade. Yeah. And I agree. We talked about this a little bit in the free agency show. I do think Gavikov, like I mentioned, like, building your team around Shisterkin and being a defensive team. And I think that that is kind of the direction they're going.

And maybe that is what, like, maybe that's what makes this team better is just a shift in mindset and a shift in philosophy of we're going to win with defense. Like we're going to win by keeping teams out of the middle of the ice and letting try. We're not going to give you good chances. Try to beat E. Gorsi Shastarkin from the outside. Good luck. Maybe a shift in just mindset and the way they're playing is enough to get this team back because they clearly have talent. The talents everywhere. We were wrong about them last year for a reason.

We all thought they were going to be good for a reason. They have plenty of talent. I think they need one more forward. And I don't know how they go about getting it right now. I mean, they have a little cap space, not difference maker cap space. I don't think you want to be trading the 2026 pick just in case things go bad. I think you would need that at that point. So it's going to be interesting.

I mean, Gabe Perrault could come in. I think he could help, certainly, very talented player, but you don't know how that profile translates right away. He would not be the first small skill guy to need a little bit of time to ramp up to what the NHL looks like. I think they need one more forward to make their top nine look really good. But I do like the look. I mean, I think Will Cooley is one of the more underrated young forwards in the NHL. I think he's a legit top six guy who, with the way that he can bang bodies, but also finish around the net. Like, that's a valuable piece.

It speaks to that same identity. I think if you're going to be a defensive team, you've got to be able to score ugly. I think Lafranier has a little more ugly scoring in him than even he's shown so far in his career. And certainly Vincent Trocheck, J.T. Miller, can both do that. You got Panera and playmaking from the perimeter. I just want one more forward. But if you ask me for a bounce back team, they're in the consideration for me. Maybe I'm not learning any lessons at all, I think is what I'm saying on this show today.

You already talked to me into it. I'm already back in on the Rangers. All right. So just a preview to next year is what we got wrong show. You know, you can replay this clip. for us then and it'll hurt twice as much because we did it two years in a row. Here's something that I think people in my neck of the woods, Jesse, are hoping you're going to be saying you got wrong a year from now that I wanted to ask you about toward the

end here. So you had on your winners and losers of the goalie carousel piece, one of your losers was Sebastian Kosso of the Red Wings. I think I get what you're saying here, right? Is that this is this high touted goalie prospect who is now has less of a path to playing. But I want you to elaborate here because I don't think that. that went over real well in my part of the Midwest right now. Yeah, Red Wings fans were not happy with the criticism. And I'll start by saying, this is not me declaring Sebastian Kosa a bus or saying

that his career isn't going to go the way that everybody wants it to. But I think it's a sign of how Steve Iserman feels his development is going, how the Red Wing, how confident the Red Wings are in a goalie that, yes, he's young, he's 22. Not a lot of goalies play in the NHL at 22. 23, 24 is kind of when we see. Like Dustin Wolf had that amazing year last year. He was 23. But when you're the 15th overall pick, expectations should be a little higher for you than the average goalie.

Like Dustin Wolf, I just mentioned, he was like a seventh round pick, sixth round pick. Like he wasn't highly touted coming in, especially not at the level COSA is. And I think that after he's already had four years, sorry, or three full years in the minors, this will be his fourth year. year. And I think that by trading for Gibson, it pretty much solid. You have Cam Talbot as the back of it. It pretty much solidifies that while those two are healthy, COSA's in the minors. And if they stay healthy for the majority of the season, he's going to have a fourth full season as a minor league

goalie. And that felt like a lot to me. So I was like, you know what? Maybe my perceptions off. Let me, I texted a couple goalie coaches. Hey, what's a good number for a goalie, like, that you expect to be a starter someday in the minors. A hundred games is what they told me. Like multiple coaches came back 100 games. Well, Kost has already got, I believe,

148 games. It's now he did have the one, he was a weird player because of COVID and he played a whole season of the ECHL, which is something you normally don't get out of a top goalie prospect. So I will give him a little slack there. I'll also say that some of these other goalie prospects that I'm going to compare him to played professionally in Russia or Sweden or whatever. So this is not an apples to apples

comparison, but when you look at COSA and you compare him to the other first round picks, the other goalies that were drafted to be great, that were drafted to be franchise goalies, none of them took this long, none of them. The last, to find a goalie that was drafted in the first round that took as long as COSA, and by the way, we're talking where he already is. That's not even adding in this entire extra year that we're about to get seemingly of minor league hockey. The last time a goalie that was drafted in the first round played this many games in the minors, it was Jack Campbell. Things didn't work out there.

That is not a guarantee that it's not going to work out for COSA. To me, it's just a little bit of a yellow flag. It's so hard to project these guys. I'm looking for yellow flags. I'm looking for signs of good. I'm looking for signs of bad. And to me, trading for John Gibson, he's got two years left on his deal. The fact that they are not making room for COSA in the NHL is a little bit of a concern for me.

All right. So I'm going to talk out of both sides of my mouth here. So on the first side, I think there is a little concern on him because the way Steve Eiserman was talking at the end of the year was pretty clear. Like they really expected COSA who had a pretty strong first three, four months of last season in the HL to be better down the stretch than he was. And he was not. And the playoffs didn't remedy that. And so I do think it's fair to say, like, hey, are they really that thrilled with this guy right now? I don't think they are.

At the same time, I think this was always the plan. Whether Gibson entered the fold or not, I think Marazic was, I mean, they traded Marazick away in that Gibson deal. Part of the reason they brought Marzik in was so that they had this kind of like insurance policy and that he could, I think Marazic probably would have served 40 games for them this year. I think that would have been bad, but I think that would have happened. And so I don't think the Gibson move itself actually changed. is anything for COSA. I still think you're going to see him this year. I also think, like, with Yaroslav Ascarov, who was drafted in the same range, one

year earlier than him, he played last year 13 games in the NHL. And that's after, like, forcing a trade so that he could play more. And that's what it got him was 13 games. If you gave me the over under 12 and a half NHL games for COSI this year, I'd say you're right in the ballpark. It's probably going to be same exact range this year because these are two old goaltenders. Somebody's getting hurt at some point.

COSA is going to come up and play at some point. as long as he's good enough. And so I think on one hand, I would say that I don't think the Gibson trade material changed anything for him other than that now when he is up full time in 2026, 27, he's paired with John Gibson as opposed to player X that they would have had to go find. But on the other hand, I don't think you're wrong to say where his trajectory has gone over the last year. We probably would have said the same thing a year ago, that we would have expected him up full time

in 2025, 26. as opposed to 2024-25, clearly that does seem delayed to me. And I don't think that's, I think that's due to his play. And to me, like when I talk about the Gibson, it's more of a long, it's not necessarily this year. It's the next couple years outlook of like, you brought up Ascarov and that's perfectly, like he, like, COSA is kind of like he's probably going to hit the same number of games that Ascarov did.

The difference is this year, this upcoming year, Ascarov's probably going to play 50-something games. Yeah, yeah, right. They put the crown on his head. Ascarov is your starting goalie. Lead us to the promised land. Like you are the goalie. And to me, that moment for Sebastian Kosa feels way off in the distance at this moment right now.

And like it could even be like Gibson has this two year deal. But what if he's good? And like this is, this would be great for the Red Wings. If he's good and he comes in and he leads you to the playoffs. And Gibson's only 31. What if he gets an extension? Like I don't know. I just, I just think that right now looking at Sebastian Kosa's.

to becoming the franchise goalie for the Detroit Red Wings is suddenly a lot cloudier. And then we haven't even mentioned, Trey Augustine looks freaking awesome. He looks awesome. Right now, if you told me, you get one goalie. COSA or Augustine, I'd take Augustine. So not only do you have the little bit of a logjam in front of him, a much more talented goalie in Gibson with a higher ceiling than any of the goalies we've seen in front of him at the NHL level for a couple years for Detroit.

And now you've got a super hot prospect who just, came off an awesome world junior who, to me, is on a fast track, nipping at your heels. I'm a little concerned for COSA. And part of the reason I brought up in that goalie carousel piece was, if I'm a team looking for a franchise goalie, Philadelphia Flyers, hello, they need something in the net to give them, like, they don't need a goalie to win right now because that team isn't ready, but they need a something in the future of the crease for Philadelphia. If I'm the Flyers, I'm calling Eiserman's phone off the hook, just asking what he would

possibly move Kosovo. I don't know. I'm a little concerned about his future in Detroit, just the way the trajectory is going and everything happening around it. I think that's fair. I think the way Detroit handles young players in general, and I think this certainly applies with goalies, like the position that you, you know, tend to give the most patience to. Like, I think they slow play everybody. And so that's why I'm not like, you know, sending out the flag yet, the red flag. But I don't think you're wrong to suggest that the circumstances now, like it's on him. And maybe they like that.

Maybe that's intentional. Like there's this pressure on him. It's like, look, we got a guy now. We got a guy behind you. Step up, right? And that's kind of the sense I'm getting. But you're not wrong that if another team out there was wanting to kind of take a flyer on a guy who went 15th overall who is incredibly talented. Right.

You can quibble with how he finished the year last year. But he's a 6-6 goalie who moves well and who I think has shown for stretches that he can be really, really good. that is interesting. I mean, maybe, maybe that's something we probably should be talking about more over here in Detroit. So I think it was a fair point by you. I just wanted to get your take on kind of what the reaction was here in Detroit because I know people weren't thrilled about it. Yeah. And just to be clear, I like COSA as a prospect. Yeah. Like it's hard to find a six six goalie that moves like him. Most of the six six goalies are the blocking like, let me just get my body in the right spot and have the puck hit me. He's not that at all. He has active hands. I like how he moves. I just, like I said, I just there's, there's, There's some things that are sending up flags to me. And when you're best comparable in terms of career path is Jack Campbell, I start to get red alerts. I mean, look, we just talked about Ascarov.

Like, Ascarov was in a situation a year ago where they come to an extension with Soros and he literally gets traded. Like, I don't think that's a crazy connection to make by you and say, like, look, this, when we see teams like kind of make, and it's not the same commitment to Gibson that it was to Soros, of course. but when you also factor in the Augustine element, and I don't disagree with you that like the way Augustine's played, now granted it's at the college level, which I think is different than the HL level, but he's been really good at every level he's played out. He's been excellent at the world juniors, right?

Like he's starting to get sandwiched here. There's starting to be a little bit of a squeeze. I don't think that's crazy to point out any at all. So I thought that was good. Any other thoughts you have here as we steer back into what we learned in 2024, 25, before we let everybody go? I'm fascinated to see if the trend continues with the offense going up and the save percentage going down. We've seen it like seven years in a row.

And this is a cat and mouse league. Like the offensive side figures things out, then the defensive side figures things out. And I'm just waiting for the swing of the pendulum. Like, are we going to keep seeing the scoring go up for the eighth year in a row? Or are we going to see some of these teams start to figure some things out defensively, start to finger things out, goaltending-wise, to try to slow down the offensive momentum.

I know everyone watching or listening is probably like, no, shut up. I love the six to five games. I'm the goalie sitting here like, come on, let's get some better back checking, you guys, but I do,

I'm very curious to see it will happen. Like, that is a certainty. It will happen. The pendulum will swing in the other direction. I'm just waiting to see, have we reached the peak of this offensive push? Or are we still on the way up?

Well, so I guess that would be my question to you is, where does the defense need to me it's the penalty kill right like i think that's the place you could innovate and find some because the power plays right now feel as lethal as they felt to me certainly in my adult life like i feel like that's where the change has to come is finding a way to bring like what a good power play is back down from like 29% to like 21% but i don't know like is there is there another area of the game that you feel like this is where defensive coaches can lock in well i agree with you on that but i also think i don't have the answer

sir. Otherwise, I would be on a bench getting paid a lot of money. But I think the defense has to figure it out because the offensive strategy has changed massively in the last couple years. There was an interview, Kevin Woodley, who does great stuff for Ingole magazine. He wrote a story on NHL.com about Andre Vasselowski talking about the save percentage dropping. And Vasselovsky gave to me the best answer that I've heard on why the safe percentage keeps going down. And he talks about, like, we don't get any free saves anymore. Like, they're not just throwing it out. us just to throw it at us and we just make the easy save. The skill keeps getting higher as these young kids keep coming into the league with tons of

skill. The defense is not as good. And these teams are just letting these kids go at an earlier age and letting them show their skill. And they aren't wasting shots. Like they are holding on to pucks for longer. They're looking for the extra pass. They're looking for shots that they think they can score on, not just any shot at the net. And to me, when I hear that, it's like, okay, well, so the offense has changed the philosophy. So the defense needs to change the philosophy. Like the defense has to react to that and change. I don't know what the answer is.

How do you change the way you're defending to better defend against that style of attack that we're seeing in the NHL? But someone's going to figure it out. And they're going to win a Stanley Cup because of it because they're going to be the team that figured out how to how to defend this new, more skilled, more patient style of offense that we're seeing in the NHL where teams are taking a much higher percentage of their shots are from high danger areas and are likely to score. So this isn't something I've learned, obviously. It's something I'm hoping I learned someday. But I'm fascinated by the way this league kind of bounces back and forth. And right now we're seeing as strong of an offensive lean as we've seen in a long time. Like the offense is clearly ahead of the defense right now.

So will they catch up? One thing I've wondered about on that topic is like, do you need to start defending everything a little with more of the mentality that, at least when I was growing up, you were taught to defend a two-on-one with, right? Like maybe you're just saying, hey, look, the goalie's got to make the first save on all this because we have to take away the back door. The back door, the royal road passes, right? Getting down to the doorstep, you have to, I think, just say that we trust our goalie to make the shot, especially if it's coming from the dots are higher.

And we have to make sure that there's nothing easy given up on the back post, that there's not an easy rebound to give. I wonder if it just the mindset has to shift even more like that, even an in zone defending or something like that. because that to me is where the magic is happening right now for teams, is these seam passes that are finding goalies in vulnerable spots that they almost can't recover from. Yeah, it's interesting. And it's also like, I think goalies got specific training from a young age, like maybe 10 years ago, 15 years ago, whenever it was.

Like, we really saw an uptick. And now I think we're seeing an uptick in offensive skill development. Like we're seeing these kids are being taught how to tow drag and shoot from like way younger ages. Like at a more specialized level, not you're at your Pee Wee League. Like it's like these kids are having private coaches that are teaching them specialized skills. Maybe it's time for defense. Like maybe we need that type of a wave where like defensive, like defensemen are getting like specialized private training at their level.

I don't know. I'm just throwing things out. This is a big picture like philosophy type thing. But I just I think that there there has to be a shift towards the defense eventually with how offensive this league is getting. the Gustav Forsling good stick camp coming to a local community rink near you in 2025. That's going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the F. F. F. F. Fottik hockey show, please, if you're enjoying the show, leave us a rating or review. That's all I'm going to be doing this summer, seeing which of you guys left us reading and reviews.

So make sure you get on the good list. It's two Shons and a Frank on Wednesday. We'll talk to you soon.