The Athletic Hockey Show - Which Central Division teams are we buying and selling on?

Episode Date: September 17, 2025

On the final installment of Hailey and Sean's Buy or Sell series, they take a closer look at the NHL's central division, analyzing the additions and subtractions for each team this off-season, and who will improve and decline as the battle for the central division begins October 7.Hosts: Hailey Salvian and Sean GentilleExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Jeff Domet Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. What's up, everybody. Welcome to another episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. It's Haley Salvean and Sean Gentilly here with you for the final edition of buying and selling NHL off seasons. That's right. It's almost the end of offseason content time. And then it's time for preview content time. And then eventually the NHL season will start and go on for several months, several long months.

It's great. We're excited. What's up, Sean? Is there something that comes between preseason content and season contents? Preseason content, preseason content. No, it's overreacting to preseason games because we're already at the part of the summer where I'm seeing people live tweet like prospect games. I can't believe that still goes on.

We're on year 15 of me wondering why that's a thing. Post preseason content is what we're going to call it. Yeah, post preseason content before the season actually starts. It is an exciting time. I'm excited to get into preseason mode and start previewing all of these teams because what we're doing isn't really a team preview. We're deciding if we're going to buy, it's kind of a team preview, but it's not as holistic as what's going to come.

But right now what Sean and I have been doing for the last couple episodes is deciding if we are buying stock in a team based on their off season moves or selling it off, essentially looking at which teams improved the most or declined this summer. It doesn't necessarily, again, look holistically up and down the roster, but looking at what these teams did this summer to get better or in some cases, in many cases in the central, got worse. We've already made our choices in the Eastern Conference and the Pacific. You can catch those episodes if you want to catch up on Apple, Google, Spotify,

the athletic podcast, wherever you get your podcast. But now all that's left is the Central Division. Shawna, you ready to start? Let's go. I actually, the Central is interesting because there's a lot of teams that didn't improve on paper. The Pacific, we looked at the Pacific in our last episode and four of the top six teams in terms of the net rating on Dom's model were in the Pacific Division, but the teams also weren't very good.

Whereas in the Central, there's not a ton of. of improvement on paper, but there are some very interesting teams to dive into. So let's start. We've been going in order based on their net rating. And this is where we're at. We have to go all the way down to 13th overall. And it's only a plus three net rating. And that's a Chicago Blackhawks.

Marginal improvements for the second worst team in the NHL last season. They add Andre Burekowski and Sam Lafferty. they lose Patrick Maroon, Alec Martinez, T.J. Brody, not a ton going on here. And I want to call back to one of our other episodes of the pod that we recorded this summer. We had Chicago as one of the teams to watch.

We were so excited looking at their cap space and thinking, boy, this team probably wants to do something to get out of the basement. Maybe they will use some of this cap space. Hey, maybe they'll take a look at Mitch Marner. they didn't do anything. No, and I think that's what makes them a tough buy for our, I was going to say tough sell, but that would have been confusing.

That's what makes them a tough buy for our purpose here today, is that, yeah, plus three net rating out of it, according to Dom's model, but a lot of that's based on, oh, God, projecting internal improvement from a lot of young players and really not much else. Yes, they went out and signed Andre Burekowski, but this is not the Andre Burekowski

that played for the caps or in his first couple, you know, initially with the ads. This is a guy who's projected to really be like a low-end third liner like by the letter of the law. And so this isn't any kind of real needle mover to the forward group. And that was in a trade

with the Seattle Cracken and in the Pacific division we did discuss how off, like getting offloading his deal was a good move by the Cracken, but that's maybe a bit of subtraction by addition if we're looking at Chicago. Yeah, so that's really all we're talking about here. Like, that's who they added. They went out and added Sam Lafferty back to the mix, who's just, you know, bottom of the roster forward,

who they're very familiar with. And then, and then Borikovsky. So I don't think there's much reason for excitement. Connor Bedard can only take you so far. I know Frank Nazar popped at points last season and it looks like a piece moving forward. But I, there's too many question marks there for me to, for me to really go all in on buying stock. Yeah. And maybe we're being a little harsh because they did do a lot of that work last summer, like some of the pieces they brought in before, you know, Tyler Pertuzi is still there.

Nick Folino still there. Ryan Donato is projected to be Bedard's top line, right? winger they have Tara Vinen and Ilyaev but I still don't think that's that's not enough and that's not the group of players that you would picture around a Connor Baderd-led rebuild in Chicago and there's a good prospect pool like in terms of their young players they're still top two or three or top depending on who you talk to and who you read and I think Corey and Scott are and locks up there at least is that that's still they're still a promising group of young players obviously that have that have yet to make it but we just haven't seen enough from them

at the NHL level and I think if you look at the defensive group that's kind of that's kind of where it starts like yeah yes has them number two by the way sorry to cut you off Sean but pranman has them um with the number two pipeline rankings yeah um but defensively it's just tough to find guys who are who you can stay for certain are capable of of playing, let's say, in a top four capacity this season. Like they have, you know, they have Sam Renzel, who was the best defenseman in the big time last year and, you know, honestly projects according to Dom's model better than anybody than any other defensemen on the roster.

Like, he's going to be good. You have Lefshunov, who's the number two pick a couple years ago and is just a bundle of talent, but is still raw. You know, he hasn't been in North America all particularly long and has some, have some strides needs to make. You know, Alex Wasek is a guy who looked like a piece the year before or last, but maybe took a couple backward steps last season on and on. So this is a group of defensemen specifically where you're like,

where is the NHL talent or the NHL production coming from this season? And I just don't, I don't quite see it. So I don't know. I can't remember if we, if we're allowed to hold stock. I think that's kind of where I am. It's frowned upon. It's frowned upon. definitely closer to selling than buying like for this season.

Yes, we still love where Badaar projects and all that stuff. But there's just there's too many, too many question marks there for me to really predict that they're going to be meaningfully better this year than last. So this is where our conversation about the San Jose Sharks can kind of come into play a little bit here. And if you didn't listen to the Pacific ranking, we both bought on the sharks because of the Celebrini factor and some of the other young players they had in the organization. But to me, Macklin Celebrini was enough to feel optimistic and interested in the future of the San

Jose Sharks. And I was a soft buy because of Celebrini. Why are you not a soft buy because of Conor Bedard? Is it simply because Celibini looks like he's going to be a better player in the NHL? Is that where we're at already? he's already more substantive five-on-five player he's already got a better 200-foot game and he already has shown signs of being a guy who can do it by himself and i'm not sure we can say that about connor badard yet he might need help he might need help get once conor badard's in the offensive

zone all as well right like that's like that's that's fine he doesn't spend enough time there and i don't think they are he needs to get him there right yeah he needs whether whether he needs they get better at driving that part of the game himself or they need to find someone better to pair him with and I'm just not quite sold on that for this season. Long term, sure. I fully believe he'll figure it out. But I don't think he's going to be as good of an NHL player is Maclin celebrating this year.

And then beyond that, you know, you look at the Sharks roster. I like Will Smith more than I like Frank Nazar. And I like William Meckland a lot. He took a big step forward. Like those are those are guys, you know, on that second layer of of the roster behind the franchise player in Celebrini and in Bedard, respectively, where you're like, I think they're more, I think they're more prepared to,

I like the way the needle is pointing for them more. Yeah. So. I also think there is, and maybe this is just recency bias, but I think there is a more clear path to improving out of the basement for the sharks under what Mike Greer is doing versus the Blackhawks with Kyle Davidson. even though you can maybe see some connective tissue between what Greer did in the early days with what Davidson did, especially in terms of drafting the superstar kid in Bedard and Celebrini.

But there's just something about what the sharks have done that makes it a little bit. There's the path in the blueprint looks a little bit more clear versus Chicago. But maybe that's all ridiculous because Chicago has the number two pipeline, according to promen. So maybe that's just being overly. negative because we're looking at an NHL roster that has Ryan Donato on the top line. I don't know. They also had the second fewest points in the league last year and were bottom five in every meaningful category, right? It was a year, if not of straight up regression and certainly stagnation.

And the sharks haven't hit that yet. Like, like, and if, you know, Celebrini plateaus a bit and the young guys in San Jose don't move forward the way that we're expecting, then we'll be talking about them in similar terms. But the results of last year are just too much for me to ignore right now. Yeah. Final point to make on Chicago, since we're comparing them so much to San Jose, the sharks, by the way,

have the number one pipeline, according to Bronwyn. So if we're, you know, we're not just poo-pooing on Chicago. San Jose is better by the prospect analyst that we, and it seems like Michael Meese. It seems like Michael Meese is going to start the season there too,

like that, which is something that's happening in the last few days. And we talked about all that on our Pacific Division. Indeed. Ranking. So you can check that out. Okay, number two, and this is the team I thought we were going to spend more time on than Chicago. But it's fine.

It's the Minnesota Wild. And it's a really interesting time to be talking about the Wild. This was a team that we also said was a top five team to watch this offseason. Maybe it was a little bit slow for a spell. And now it's getting very spicy in St. Paul or wherever these players live. Zero net rating. That's 16th overall. the number two improvement in the division, of course,

largely added window dressings, like moved patio furniture around whatever metaphor you want to use here. They add a lot of... Oh, patio furniture. He's my, he's me favorite Irish step forward. What? Get it? Come on.

Padio furniture. Oh, my God. Okay. It's an old joke. Okay. They add Vladimir Tarasenko. Enigo Sturm out is Gustav Nyquist, Frederick Goddrow, and Declan Chisholm. The biggest things they did, they signed Marco Rossi to a bridge contract three times

three versus trading him. We had a big discussion about that earlier in the off season. It did seem like signing Marco Rossi was the better move, especially if you think he can be an NHL caliber center and Minnesota's needs at the center position and the lack of options. once Brock Nelson stayed in Colorado and we can get to that later in the show and we talk about the abs, that was like, okay, well, now what are the wild going to do? They sign Marco Rossi. They don't trade him, but now a ton of drama and intrigue with their superstar winger and Kareel Kaprizov news broke last week that he turned down a record eight-year, $128 million contract offer. That would have been a $7 million bump in AAV, should he?

have accepted it. He did not, according to reports. I believe it was Frank Seraveli, who reported this first. Mike Russo and Joe Smith have a big story looking at this on the athletic as well. And obviously the big question is why did he turn it down and what does this mean for the wild? And the answer to that, whether it's just the agent driving a hard bargain or a signal of the beginning of the end for Caprizov in Minnesota, is going to have a huge impact in whether or not you buy or sell in the wild. Absolutely. And we don't have the answers on it yet either.

Like that remains to be seen as these negotiations move around. Like, why are we having this discussion about Carol Caprizov? Like, did he, does he want to make more money? Does he want to play somewhere else? Those are kind of the two, those are the two choices. More than $128 million. Those are the, like, it's one or the other. He either wants more money or he, or he, or he, or,

he doesn't want to play for the wild anymore. And the possibility that it's option B is enough to make me sell my stock in the Minnesota Wild and make me sell it pretty quickly. I think I'm fine hammering the button here because it's not just that Kareil Kaprizov is when he's in the lineup, an MVP caliber player. It's that he is the franchise with Minnesota. he is the reason to like them as, you know, let's say a mid-grade contender in the West

with all due respect to that bully and Brock Weber, like, you know, no, no knock on those guys. They're good, they're good young players, but they're not top 10 guys. And I think that's what Carrel Capriza is, at this point in his career, as long as he's healthy. And the fact that they're staring down, you know, staring down the pipe at the possibility that he wants,

that he wants to play elsewhere is just too much to ignore. You could argue that outside of maybe Connor McDavid and the very tippy top tier, that no single player is more important to his, to the on-ice product for his team than Carol Capriza. And I think that's, I think that's a scary proposition when you're talking about a guy who doesn't seem like he wants to stick with the team while he's making $16 million for the, for the rest of his prime.

It's a scary thought. So yeah, I'm selling pretty hard. So to me, given his injury history, and we've talked about this on the show before, especially when the wild go into the playoffs and stuff, it's like, well, if Caprizov's healthy and he can play well, then yeah, I'm interested in the Minnesota Wild. But if he's not 100%, and we've seen that at important points of the season, then the wild aren't the same kind of contenders. With his age, he would have been 29 when that new contract starts that they offered him. With that age and that injury history, I don't know. know why he wouldn't just accept that. It would be the highest paid player more than Leon Dreissel who currently has the highest A.A.V. in the league. So that's where it gets like, ooh, do you just not want to be here, dude? And if that's the case, then we're going to be looking at another Matthew Cachuk situation where, you know, people didn't know this.

Cichuk told the Calgary Flames heading into the last year of his deal. Like, I don't want to be here. I'm not going to sign here long term. Like, I'm telling you this so you can prepare and get something instead of me leaving for nothing. And if that's where the wild end up with Caprizov this year, then we're going to probably see another. Like, they've got to, if he says, I don't want to be here, then you've got to trade this guy and get what you can. I think also people on the outside,

I'm not talking about wild, wild fans necessarily, but I think NHL fans writ large probably think he's a little bit younger than he actually is because he took a couple years, he took a couple years of come over. This is not a 26-year-old player. It's because he won rookie of the year when he was. He was 27. Joking.

That was a joke. He somehow won a rookie there when he was 32. And he's 29 now. He's aging backwards. But no, this is not, you know, he's,

he's relatively early in his NHL career, but that doesn't mean that we're talking about a 25-year-old player either. So it's a, it's a fascinating, fascinating dynamic that got going on there. And there's more questions than answers. This is not going away. Just like so many other player,

you know, the Connor McDavid thing's not going away. The Sydney Crosby thing's not going away. There are big questions over MVP caliber players that, and where they're going to play, you know, moving forward that are going to follow these teams around until there was all one way or another. It's a huge, huge subplot this season in general. Yeah, probably one of the more interesting seasons in terms of all the added juice and drama and intrigue around specific players.

I'm curious why that's all coming to a head now. Is it the new CBA? Is it the cap rising? Is it just players feeling more entitled isn't the right word, but just taking ownership of where they want to be and saying like, no, I'm actually good. I'm going to go do this instead. Someone should write a story about why that's all coming to a head.

Like, why are players, is it because people saw Matthew could Chuck say, I want to go to Florida and then he just won two Stanley Cups? I think a lot of it has to do with the amount of money that's centered the system. over the last few years with the rise in cap. And Myrtle actually wrote a good story about this last week. Yeah, what we see their first $20 million?

Yeah, not entirely through the lens that you mentioned, but just looking at it like what is happening with the pay scale for elite NHL players. And I think it's something to watch for sure. Player empowerment. Yay. Every fan base loves player empowerment until it affects their team's ability to to retain stars and adequately fell out rosters.

It's very interesting. People change their tune whenever they realize what player empowerment would look like. Just because I cover the Calgary Flames when the Kachuk stuff happened, I'm probably going to sell in the wild because I don't love the way that the wind is blowing. But it's a soft sell and it's pending. My money's on hold at the bank until I see what Kaprizov does. and then after that, the second layer of protection I have at the bank is what does Bill Garron do about it if and when they find out he doesn't want to be there.

Aaron can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get something great in return from the New York Rangers, then maybe I'll stick around. But as of right now, I'm probably going to, I'm going to soft sell pending what Caprizo does and pending what Bill Garan does. They might be soft sell even if Caprizo sticks around because, of the center. Like this is, this is old news about the Minnesota wild, but like, I don't like them down the middle. I don't like it. And that's, and that's even if Caprizov is, is in the mix. So yeah, this is a soft sell if nothing changes and hard, hard, hard sell if we get some

ugly answers about whatever is going on with the big boy there. Yeah. All right. Let's take a break. That's been our first segment. When we come back, we're going to look at the St. Louis Blues, Colorado Avalanche and the Dallas Stars. We continue to buy and sell NHL office. seasons in the Central Division. All right, welcome back to the athletic hockey show. Sean has taken on the Ian Mendez role of making dad jokes on the podcast. Welcome back Ian Mendez. Ian never made like Irish jokes, though.

Not Irish dad jokes. But it was always the same reaction. It's been a while since I've just looked straight into a camera and said, what are you talking about? In regards to a joke, I've said that to you about things you've said about our local sports teams, but. Ian has to make those jokes to Steve Stales now.

Steve Stales is the one who's rolling his eyes and we're like, perfect. All right, St. Louis Blues, negative one net rating, 20th overall. We're moving down the list here in the Central Division. We should say, according to Dom's model and all these numbers that were, getting is from Dom's story that he does every year.

This came out July 16th, which NHL teams improved the most this season, ranking all 32. So thank you, Dom. We're ripping off your entire story and not inviting you on the show. So according to Dom's model, this projection is not a product of what looked like a decent summer by the Blues, but more of a lack of projection for Logan Mayu. One of the big things the Blues did this summer was trading Zach Bulldoch for Logan Mayu. Mayu only played seven games in Montreal last year.

year. In theory, he is the kind of offensive defender that the blues need. So you see why they made this move on paper. But he is still a big question mark. And Zach Boldock does register as a loss in net rating for the Blues. He's someone who has shown he can play a reliable top nine role in the NHL. The Blues also add Pia Suter and Nick Bugstad out Radick Faxa, Nick Lettie and Ryan Suter. Suter and Bugstad bolster the team's depth, fine summer in St. Louis, but really a lot of whether or not they improve or don't is going to hinge on if Mayu can be an impactful NHL player.

Yeah, that's true. I'll just say it flat out. They're a buy for me. I like the collection of talent they have there. I think Robert Thomas is, he was a fun one to talk to folks about for the Player Tiers project. I think he is not quite a franchise center, but knocking on the door.

I like the way things are trending for him. I love what they got from the offer sheet guys in Holloway and Broberg. Obviously, Holloway before he was injured. That's not this offseason, though. I know. I'm just saying in general, I like the collection of talent that's preexisting there.

I think Jordan Carter had a pretty interesting season. and I think he's found his level. And they added one of the best centers, the best UFA centers in Pia Souter. I know people who don't pay attention to the Canucks or what have you, may not, may be surprised to hear that, but they got stronger down the middle. They moved their center depth for sure. Yeah, they got stronger down the middle in a way that a lot of teams did not. So I like the idea of them playing a full season under Jim Montgomery.

I think Colton Pereko looked a whole lot better under him. It could seem like he reversed some of the downward curve that he'd been on. But ultimately, you know, the high-end pieces there, I like quite a lot. I think they have an elite coach. And I think they have guys like, again, full season from Holloway, full season from Jimmy Snuggarood, you know, continued maturation for a guy like Brover, who's a young player. I like the way things are moving for them. And I'm certainly more bullish on them than the model is.

Yeah. And again, the model is mostly, like there is no up or down for Mayew. So if Logan Mayu ends up being a legitimate top four offensive threat from the blue line for the St. Louis Blues, that projection ends up going way higher. But there was no way that the model was going to properly project to him after seven kind of chaotic games. for the Montreal Canadiens last season. And so Dom makes that pretty clear. He is still a question mark because, again,

only seven games under his belt. That projection could be way, way off if he ends up being what the blues clearly think he is, which is what they need on the blue line. And that's an offensive threat, offensive talent. So yeah, the blues are super interesting. I think what they already had to your point, Sean, is good. You don't have to sell me on Robert Thomas.

He's been my main guy in our keeper league. Drafted him in like the seventh round three years ago, and he's been my keeper every year. We love Robert Thomas in this house. So, yeah, I'm a buy on the blues. If we're doing strictly on their offseason, even if Mayu is a question mark, I would buy based on Pia Suter and Bugstad.

I like it. I love it on the wing. They still upgrade it. their bottom six and I don't know. There's no reason to sell. I like the way they're situated more now than I did six months ago. This forward group is one of the, when we look at forward lines and stuff,

this is one of the few other than the obvious teams like Dallas or Colorado. When we're looking at, you know, quote unquote, more than mushy middle, I look at the blues forwards. I'm like, yeah, fine. There's some other teams in the Central. We can get to that eventually where I look at, at them, I'm like, ugh. Yeah, stuff slots in the way that it should.

And I think, just to finish up on this, I think the, I think the, I think the Baltic Mayu trade was super interesting when it happened. I think it's going to be really interesting to see how it plays out for both teams, because I think you can argue pretty convincingly that both teams came out of that in a better situation than, uh, than before. Like a mutually beneficial kind of swap. And the Pia Souter deal is, honestly, based on the way that the cap's risen to get a good middle,

six center, two years, four million dollars. Like, that's good. That's fine. It is tidy work. Upgrade your center debt without spending all of your money. It's pretty good offseason by the blues, even if Dom's model doesn't totally acknowledge it. Because Dom hates the blues. Moving on.

So the Colorado Avalanche. And if you want to send any fan mail to Dom from St. Louis, it's 1, 2, 3, Boogie, Wogie Avenue. 1-22. Toronto, Ontario. All right, Colorado Avalanche, negative 2 net rating 22nd overall. In terms of in and out, obviously the aves took a small step back. They lose top nine pieces and Jonathan Druen and Charlie Coyle, Miles Wood and Ryan Lindgren, also out the door. The only edition on paper is Brent Burns.

upgrade over Ryan Lindgren on the blue line, even at this point in Burns' career, probably a second pair was great last season. So that looks like a savvy ad by the Colorado avalanche. But what the rating doesn't account for, and we can, we can look at this when we're just qualitatively looking at teams off seasons is Gabriel Landisog, his return in the playoffs. And if he can look like a top six, even a top nine guy next season on a more full-time basis and retaining Brock Nelson. So if you consider Nelson and Landisg and then the upgrade with Brent Burns, the negative two net rating is a little, not going to say it's unfair because those were the ins and outs, but the abs look a lot better than this ranking would suggest. What do you think,

Sean? Because I buy on the abs for sure. Yeah, I'm going to keep buying on them until they, until that core ages out, right? Like that's just kind of the way that it goes. Landisog is interesting because his projection for this year is he's up he's at a plus six basically which would make him a high end second liner we'll see if that how that shakes out fascinating um i you know we're doing the we're doing the abs dance now where it's like yeah i think they're supporting cast as enough right like jack jury is the three C's that's just that should work and and you're saying that you know, with italics around it. You know, you're like, yeah, okay.

Like, I'm not 100% sold on them, but on the, on the pieces at the bottom. But it's impossible not to buy on a team with Nathan McKinnon, Kehl McCar, and Arturi Alackan, who's a perfect running made for McKinnon at this point in his career. And, you know, a lot of people love Martin Natchez. Like all these guys at the top of the lineup, it makes it impossible. it makes it impossible not to like them. And you still trust them to figure out the ancillary pieces,

you know, the pieces on the third and fourth line as we move down the lineup. So yeah, I have faith, I think, to some degree in the supporting cast, but the stars are what makes me in on them, you know, for the foreseeable future. Yeah, I mean, I think Landis Gob, could be the biggest difference between last year's team and this year's.

You know, he could probably help to replace some of the void left by Miko Ranton. And obviously that doesn't play into the net rating because he left in the season, not in the summer, but have to look at that too. And I think Brock Nelson is, you know, retaining him as maybe underappreciated. But like that, he is, they've got their two C. They've been, we've been talking about that since Cadre left, right? This is maybe the best the top sixes look.

when we consider their centers. There's not as many question marks in the top six. Sure, there's still question marks when it comes to their depth. But if Landis Gogh can be the guy and Brock Nelson can be their two-see, that this top six looks pretty good. And I'm not going to bet against McKinnon and McCar. So I would buy up. Yeah, they need burns to be good.

I think you're right to open up with him. Like they need him to be something approaching. a legit second pair guy. And I think there is some well-earned skepticism over whether he can do that at this point. Really? I think 2025 Brent Burns is a lot different. I think he's still better than Ryan Lynn. Twenty-twenty-five Burns is better than Ryan Lindgren. I agree with that for sure. And I think he represents an upgrade. The question is whether he can, you know, keep it going long enough to make that stand up because he's old and I think he's hit some degree of decline over the last year or two that that he fended off for a really long time.

Is there a world in which Gerard and Manson are a good enough second pair and then you can just have Brent Burns Cook in like a sheltered third pair situation? Or is that the worst case scenario? I think that's probably a worst case scenario. I love I love Manson and in Gerard is the is the third pair like that like those are those are luxury guys there that to some extent but maybe overextended as your everyday second pair and mccar just is such a ridiculous amount for them like he like he plays again there's very few players like single digit low single digit count on one hand kind of players who go up more consistently against top competition than him and he any any crushes it so I think that's a nice security blanket where you know that even

a second pair is going to be getting relatively more sheltered minutes than they would on virtually every other team in the league. So yeah, I'm a little hesitant to fully buy in on Brent Burns as being, you know, the third or fourth best defenseman on a cup contender. But everything else around them makes it makes me a little bit more okay with it. I still buy on the abs, though. Yeah, sure. if we're just looking at, even if we're just looking at their offseason, I would buy.

The problem with this project is like the off seasons don't happen in this little mini vacuum of here's the ins and outs. Yeah. And they have the goalie thing taken care of too. They don't have to worry about Georgie of anymore. Blackwood looked really good. So that's another reason to like them. Bye, bye, bye. All right.

Let's move on through the Central to the Dallas Stars. The negative four net rating, 26th overall. in is Radik Faxa and Vladislav Koliachonic out Michael Granland, Genni Dadov, Mason Marchment, Cody C, C, C, Matt Dumba. I think the main mission for the Dallas Stars this off season was to get under the salary cap shed some of those dollars and they did that in dumping. It's probably unfair to call Mason Marchman a cap dump because he was a top six player for them, but they move Marchments money off the books as well as Matt Dumbas.

Cody Cici's out the door to. The same question. on defense with the Dallas stars as we kind of have every year, but maybe similar to the abs. We have the same questions as last summer, but still the same superstars on the roster. Sean, do you, I don't think I would, on paper, I'm not buying on the Dallas stars based on their offseason,

but I buy on the Dallas stars because I like the Dallas stars and I like what they already have on their roster. And moving out that money makes things easier for just perennial GM of the year, Jim Nill. Give it to him again. He's going to do something at the deadline. Just award the trophy in September.

He'll be the mix by the time it's all said and done. But as it stands right now, all due respect to Miko Rinton and the fact that they managed to the fact that Nell managed to get all these guys under the cap without doing anything, you know, all of that drastic.

they are a soft sell for me. What? We've been picking them to win the cup for years. You're ditching me now? Good riddance. I know. I know. Here's why, though.

We were ready for Wyatt Johnson, the level up last season. It didn't quite happen. Rupa hints, good as he is and good as he was, he was a step down from where he'd been in the past. We're going into another season. where we're saying, okay, do they have this super pair of Hayskin and Thomas Harley? Great as both those guys are. Like, is that what they should do rather than give them each their own separate pairing?

And we're talking about Ilia Lubushkin and Nils Lundkivist and Vladislav Koyachana, who's just, you know, a seventh is a seventh defenseman, nothing more, nothing less. Got to waived a couple times last season. I think similar questions exist around this team. And in the full context of it, you're talking about guys in Johnston and Hins who underdelivered a bit last season. So it's a soft sell for me. I really wish we weren't talking about them rolling out Ilyel-Bushkin

as a second pair of defenseman on the right side again. but I could be talked out of that in a hurry. But as it stands, you know, on September 15th, 2025, I'm a soft sell on them relative to where they were last season after the summer. That's just their defense has looked the way that it is when you spend, what, $60 million, yeah, $60 million, $63% of the cap on their forwards. And then obviously 8.45 million on their number one defender. Assel and Del still,

Esselandale's still very good too. Like he's not part of the problem. But after that top three, you know, you have a bunch of guys that are playing way out of position. And that just makes me, it makes me nervous because of what we've seen from them in the past. How big of a season is this for Jason Robertson for you when you're looking at the

Dallas stars? more pressure on him than most forwards in the NHL? Is that unfair? No, I don't think it's unfair at all. I think we've seen what he looks like at his best. That's a couple years ago where he was knocking on the door, not to keep bringing it back to the player tier project, but he was a fringe franchise player.

And he was productive last season. He also started really slowly and kicked it into overdrive once he was snubbed from the Four Nations roster. I don't think that's a coincidence. But I think he needs to play closer to the level that he was at a couple years ago than the one he was at this previous season. Absolutely. Obviously, a contract year for Jason Robertson, too, he's making $7.75 million and he's a restricted free agent next summer with arbitration rights. and he'd be a UFA the year after.

So a huge, huge contract potentially on the line for Jason Robertson or a potential change of scenery, as we've seen with these RFA guys, when you've got to buy their UFA money, when you've got to buy their UFA years, or they can really swing, swing their weight around with that RB eligibility. Yeah, the cap. Huge, huge year for Jason Robertson.

The cap dance is always going to be a delicate one for Nill and the Stars. So I think that needs to be considered to for sure. We heard, you know, people hypothesizing that maybe Robertson would be a trade candidate at various points last season. Like, that's not a coincidence. So, yeah, I think all as well if he looks like the guy from 2024 again. But yeah, we've seen some, we've seen some aggression there. And I think he needs to reverse that pretty quickly or else the questions are going to continue.

Sagin being the second highest paid player on that roster after Miko Rannan's a little tough in 2025. I agree. It's okay. But not in that too, shame. Yeah. Perfect. Very quickly before we had to break,

unfortunately, I'm sorry if you're Nashville Preders fan and listening to the show. I think we can get through them pretty quickly. Let's get to the Nashville Predators here. a negative four net rating 27th overall. They add Eric Kala and Nicholas Haig and Nick Perbix. Oh, Susan and Jeremy Lousin.

They finished third from the bottom last year after this huge off season that we were all freaking out about. They add Stephen Stancoast and Jonathan March. So they still didn't have a center and I think they just got worse on paper. You didn't mention Brady. You didn't mention Brady Shea either, who was brutal last season in his first is for a season with the Preds. They expected more from him.

Was that the biggest, like if you want to talk about how good the cane system is, was that like the best example of? I think so. I think so. Yeah, they don't have any centers in their wingers are old. I think. And good as Ryan O'Reilly is too.

Like he's at this point his career, if he's your 1C, you're in big, you're in big trouble no matter what. And when you're talking about Feders Fetchkov and Eric Hall is the guys behind him, you know, things don't get much better. So yeah, I'm selling selling pretty hard on them. Yeah. Even though Philip Forsberg is still a good player. He's had, he like alternates.

I think someone said this in our player tiers. Like he just, he's got, there's two versions of him. And even, but even if they get the good one, the high end version of Philip Forsberg, I just don't think they have enough to be relevant. sell. Yeah, unfortunately they're an easy sell for me. Also, I would soft. Like the Dallas Stars, I didn't even say, the Dallas Stars to me are maybe like the perfect I would hold just to see if this is the year.

But we can't do that. So I will, I will soft buy on the Dallas Stars because I like that core group if I didn't make that clear. And yeah, the Preds are an easy sell, unfortunately. The going all in thing was puzzling then. even more puzzling now in hindsight. UCSarles has been pretty mediocre to bad for two consecutive seasons. That's something to want you to do with them.

You know what I should say? I was probably, I don't remember, was I bullish on the Preds? Did I think that they were going to cook? Like maybe I'm being a little bit of. I think whenever I looked at their depth chart at the start of last season and saw that Tommy Novak was supposed to be the two C on an alleged contender, no, that's just not where he slots at this point. his career and that's yeah he's in Pittsburgh now not a coincidence yeah in hindsight the o'reilly

and stamp coast thing is like what are you guys doing actually so adding old guys man yeah yeah sell on the preds and let's take a break we've got two more teams in the central to take a look at actually kind of an interesting one coming up we'll chat about the Utah mammoth and wrap up that's right with the wind peg jets all right it's the final segment of buying and selling. This is the last time we'll be doing this. From your lips of God's ears.

Final segment for the central final segment of our buying and selling series here and we'll kick it off number seven with the Utah mammoth, negative eight net rating, 28th overall. But Utah is very interesting within the context of this project, but also just looking at them

heading into the season. We can start in JJ, Peturca that was in the trade with the Buffalo Sabres where they traded up. They got J.J. Peturca for Josh Done and Michael Kesslering. They also add Brandon Tanev and Nate Schmidt. Out Matias Machelli. He signs with the Tronome, May believes Josh Done, Nick Buegstad, and Kesslering, as we mentioned.

They add a nice player in J.J. Paturka improves their top six. According to Dom's model, he feels like, he slash the model, feels like sending out Done and Kesslering kind of. kind of hurts their depth in a pretty big way. Dom wrote in the grand scheme of things, it's always better to get the best player in the deal, which they did with the Turca.

But in this case, the mammoth's depth options are not strong enough to make up the difference. So if we just look at their depth chart, we're now looking at an Alex Kerfoot in the middle six and an only moda in the top four, which are downgrades according to Dom's model. for Don't and Kesslering.

You kind of disagree with Dom's assessment of the mammoth. What do you think, Sean? I just love the way they're situated moving forward. I think Logan Cooley looked like a future 1C for the last chunk of games. He had 18 points in his last 16 and, you know, his passing tracking data was great and his transitional play was great. Like he showed a lot over the course of last season to, you know, when we talked about him for player tiers,

we had people saying like he's, you know, outside of, outside of the very, very obvious, you know, 20 or 21 year olds, he's, he's a guy best situated to jump up.

I don't think there's a lot of other young centers better than him in the, in the game at this point. So I think the fact that they have that box checked, I think, um, the fact that they have Clayton, Keller as their best forward still, who's a player who's just gotten better year over year at substantive stuff,

not just, not just scoring. Like he's become a much more legit two-way player, doesn't give much back. Probably going to make an Olympic team. I think that's, I wouldn't be surprised to see that at all. Just like a really productive guy who you're fine having as your best winger.

Dylan Gunther's got the X factor with the shot. You know, that's what everybody talks about with him, but that's a, that's a pure goal score there. They have Mikhail Surgachev, who looks like, you know, took that step to looking like an actual number one defenseman in Utah last year. They have boxes checked and so many interesting points that I'm less concerned with maybe weakening their depth with it, with it, with like the Donut Kessoring thing. I think those are guys who you can replace. I think their group of prospects is probably good enough to lean on there as well. I just I like where they're situated moving forward. And a lot of that's because of those guys that they have on the top line

because they're they're either relatively young like Keller, legitimately young like Gunther and in Cooley. And they're, you know, it seems like they're set there. It's always easier for me to buy a team whenever they have those, you know, big boxes checked. This is one of the teams where I look at the lineup on paper. and once you get out of the, their top line looks great.

I think that's going to be a really fun line to watch. To your point, Sean, with Cooley and Keller and Gunther, if that's how it ends up lining up. This is one of the teams that we mention off the top where you look at it and I'm like, I don't love this on paper.

But also we have to consider the context. This is a team that is in a rebuild. And they've got some of the hard stuff already figured out to what you've been saying. Sean, and you've got the Star 1C, C, and you've got the number one defender. And they have the number three,

pipeline according to Corey Promin. Like if we're talking about the Blackhawks and San Jose with their number one and two pipelines, Utah's right behind them and they already have some of those guys who are making meaningful impacts at the NHL level. So I would

buy on Utah, I think saying that I don't know, J.J. Patrick is a good player. I'm going to push back on Dom's Model 2. I think to say that losing Josh Stone and Michael Kesslering is going to be such a big hit to their depth is maybe, I don't know,

they're rebuilding. Their depth doesn't look great, but their prospects are very good. They have a number one defender in a top line that should be good and fun. And they should, they should meaningfully be in a wild card hunt this season. And that's enough for me to buy on Utah. And again, this is a team that's been in a rebuild. And they should probably be in the fight this year.

So I would pretty easily buy on the Utah mammoth. I trust that prospect pool and I trust that front office to find ways to add those depth pieces in one way or another moving forward. Does that make them, you know, does that hurt them a bit this season? Like, yeah, sure. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe not. Who cares?

Like, and I think. Wouldn't rather have JJ Petirka? I think. Do you want or not? I think those are the kind of things that help you. And if we're talking about what success looks like for the. Utah Mammoth this season. I think if they play 80 games in meaningful hockey and are in the wild card race until

the end, whether they make it or not, I think that looks like success. I think that's the next step for them is that there were still some games at the end of that schedule where you knew that they weren't playing for much. You're playing to see stuff from Logan Cooley and whatever, set themselves up for next season, but they were out of the out of the playoff race and any kind of meaningful way. next step for them is to is to play relevant games all the way through March and I think you know the guys that they have at the top of the lineup make me think they can do it. Yep.

J.J. Paterka could be a 30 goal 70 point guy as soon as the season if things work out. So if you want them, you're going to have to give something up, you know, like you're not going to. Here's a bag of pucks actually. I mean, maybe that would work. As a player who was just traded away from the Buffalo Sabres, where that's just the most likely outcome clearly.

Oh, 100%. Probably 40 goals and 80 points. We're going to be conservative. Rock and Richard. Rocket Richard contender, J.J. Paturka. He's going to score more goals than Austin Matthews this season. You heard of your first. All right.

The final team, it's the Winnipeg Jets, I fear. And they've been here before. Last season, they were around the 30th overall mark, which is where they're at this year, negative 13 net rating because they struggled to retain players last summer. But this season, it's going to be a little bit harder to just move on or skirt over that. Not being able to retain Nikolai Eilers makes the Jets one of the least improved teams in the NHL heading into the season. Again, they were low last season, but Eilers presence is going to be very, very missed in their top six. And on the score sheet, Gustav Nyquist is kind of their stopgap.

It looks like. So I can just very quickly, in Gustav Nyquist, Jonathan, Taves Tanner Pearson out Nikolai Eilers, Mason Appleton, Brandon Tanna. There's a big bet on Jonathan Taves. It's a great story for people in Winnipeg, for people in Manitoba. I personally am skeptical about what Jonathan Taves is going to look like this season, just given his age and his lengthy absence from the game. If he is a mid-bottom-Sick center, I'm fine with it. It's a nice story. Welcome back. We're playing at home. Awesome. But in terms of what the Winnipeg Jets are going to look like.

And in terms of their off season, this is a very easy sell for me. I think it could have been a sell unit if they brought back Eelers to tell you the truth. Because if you look at it through the lens of where is this team going to be this season relative to last, I think kicking them to fitness what the best record in the league is, would have been a tough ask. That's not to say that there's not stuff to like. I, you know, I had some really good conversations with a couple. couple scouts and particularly about about Gabe Valardi and the kind of player that he's become over the last couple years as as the you know call him the third guy on the Kyle Connor Mark

Shifley line so I think you know him growing into that spot gives them a layer of protection at the top of the lineup that maybe they haven't had like that's a that's a legit first line across the board with with connor shy flea and valardi so credit credit to those guys for you know meshing to that point but man uh i'm just always skeptical on on that forward group i never really know quite what to make of them and the fact that eelers you know is is elsewhere means you sign with caroline obviously is uh that's that swings it pretty decisively you know into the in the in the cell category i like plenty of guys in that Rosser, I think Josh Morrissey's a top 10 defenseman in the league, undoubtedly.

Dylan Sanford had an incredible year last year. He's someone to watch as like, you know, people are going to be talking. It's easy to imagine people talking about him the same way. They talked about Christi Annav a few years ago real, real soon. There's a lot to like, but I still just look at that group of skaters and they're lacking something. Yeah. And again, with just the context of the problem. project and looking at off seasons, I can't buy on an offseason in which you lost from the most important players to your roster. And again, 30th overall, negative 13 net rating added for the Winnipeg Jets. Only the LA Kings and the Toronto Maple Leafs lost more. And the

leaves obviously lose Mitch Marner. And the LA Kings lost Gavrakov, among others, but that was the big one. And I don't think we bought on either of those teams. Is this the longest anybody's ever talked about the Winnipeg Jets of the last 10 or 15 years without mention in Connor Hellebuck. Like, good, good God. We've made it. We've made it so far. But I think, you know, I think his, his performance in the postseason, that's another reason to feel a little squishy about them moving forward is, you know, they ask so much of him. For the most part, he delivers, certainly delivers to an incredible degree in the regular season. But the way he played in the playoffs, what should be terrifying for Jets fans?

Like that, like, it's officially time for concern. And I think that's only one more reason to, you know, not feel great about the spot they're in for, for 25, 26. I mean, it's not going to be concerning until next April or whatever. When did the playoffs start? Never know. May, June. Yeah, the next.

And consistent 920 to 925 goalie over the last three years. There's no reason to believe that's going to change in the regular season. That's never really been his problem. problem. And then he looked like a completely different guy once the, once the playoffs start around for sure. Yeah. That's been the cycle. And it's, is it because he plays between 66 and 60 games a season? Oh, who can say really? Who knows? Or is it? Justice for Eric. Justice for Eric Comrie. Play him enough this year to at least get his name on the Jennings trophy whenever, whenever Hellwood Buck wins it again. It's actually quite sad.

That's a bummer. Jamie McClennon probably got on the Jennings with Kipersoff once. Carried an equal amount of the load for sure. Yeah, text noodles. And see about that. Hey, did you ever win a Jennings or did they not put you on there? They should call him that on Overdrive on TSN. They should introduce him if that were the case as Jennings trophy winner, Jamie McClain.

I feel like Kipersoft played like 70 games a year, so there's no way. He actually got a trophy. It was incredible. Incredible. Yeah, we can talk more about Connor Hellebuck and the impact that his performance has had in the postseason on the team. And Jeff just says he did not win the Jennings. Yeah, we should have known because like I said, otherwise they would introduce him as such on the radio every day. Yeah.

Yeah, that's tough. Sorry about that. Probably an old wound there. Doesn't matter. They don't listen to the show. But yeah, we can talk more about Connor Hellebuck and what the Jets are going into the season with a bit more

when we start doing our season previews. But in terms of their off season, it's a sell for me. And then, yeah, if we're expanding out of the vacuum, I would probably sell them the Jets anyways. Everyone knows. I went hard for them two years ago. They wronged me.

And I will never be happy again. grudges grudges last forever Kennings' trophies last long grudges last longer exactly all right thanks to Sean

for doing this pod thanks to everyone for listening why do I always thank you this is your job you need to stop doing it makes it feel strange thanks Sean for talking to me for the last one hour

you're fishing for me no no Haley thank you no it was my pleasure thanks everyone for listening to this episode of the athletic hockey show that officially wraps up our buying and selling segment. I don't think we bought a ton in the Central Division. We bought on the mammoth. We bought on the stars, the abs, the blues. Okay. You know what? We did a little shopping. We did a little

bit of shopping. Just remember this blues fans. That's all I ask of you. Whenever you're mad about when you're enraged during power ranking season. On your side here. We support you. We respect you. All right. Dom does not. Dom does not. And his address again.

1-22, boogie-woogie Avenue. Boogie-Wogie Avenue, Toronto, Ontario, M5V. Apartment. 287. Send your hate mail to Dom. He'll appreciate it. NHL training camps get set to open later this week. You can check out all of our coverage at the Athletic on the website on the app.

and new pods are going to start dropping next week as well. Again, we're going to start getting into some beefy, very beefy season previews. Meaty? In-depth. In-depth season preview. There we go. There we go. And I unfortunately for you, dear listener, will be hosting two of them.

See you then.