The Athletic Hockey Show - Which NHL starts are most concerning as the Thanksgiving Line of Doom looms?

Episode Date: November 4, 2024

As the calendar flips to November, with the Thanksgiving Line of Doom approaching quickly, Max and Laz discuss which teams currently sitting outside the playoffs have the most cause for concern and which teams currently in the playoffs are actually for real. Plus, The Athletic’s NHL insider Chris Johnston gives his thoughts on the playoff bubble teams, Jim Montgomery benching David Pastrnak on Sunday, the Isles potentially looking for help on the trade market, and more. Hosts: Max Bultman and Mark LazerusWith: Chris JohnstonExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. Hey, everybody. Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus for another episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. We're going to be joined shortly by our NHL insider Chris Johnston for an episode today that I think is going to center mainly on some of the bubble teams that have really put themselves behind the eight ball as we approach this kind of Thanksgiving line of doom, Laz. But before we get to that, I want to start with a team that I expected to be in that conversation right now that has been quite the opposite. They are coming off a loss on Sunday night, but the Washington Capitals have really surpassed my early season expectations for them. And I'm curious how much of this you think, before we get into the teams that are in big trouble,

how much of the Washington Capitals helped themselves and how much are you buying their start to this season? You know, I kind of equate the Capitals to the Minnesota Wild right now, where they're not this good, but they're clearly pretty good. They're outperforming their metrics, but the metrics are good. Like, these are two quality teams. and we see this every year where teams that we thought were going to be kind of in that mushy middle turned out to be better for whatever reason.

Like Dylan Strome is on pace for almost 130 points this year. Alex Ovechkin, you know, has got seven goals in his last eight games. They're kind of finding all the formula that's working for them. And they're doing this with the 30th ranked power play in the league. Their power play is scoring at 9%. Nine. And yet they're playing as well as they're playing and they're winning. That's a good sign.

When something you're usually leaning on isn't working and you're still winning, you know, it can't be a total mirage at this point. Yeah. I'm a believer that you can't really make the playoffs this early in the season, but you can really hurt yourself with it. And that's kind of how I view that line. I don't really think being in at that point is a guarantee of anything. It's just if you're behind, you're in trouble. But the thing I'll say about these hot starts is what you do is you buy yourself a slump, basically. you buy yourself a get out of slump free card later in this year.

So like Washington right now through 11 games, they're up to 16 points in the standings, right? And most NHL teams will tell you that when they divide up their season into five game segments, they want to get six points out of every five games because that correlates over a season to the typical playoff cutoff, right around 96 points, right? They're already at 16 through 11. They only need one more win in their next four to feel good about that. And most teams, especially a lot of these bubble teams that we're going to talk about, about today. If they go one out of their next four, they're in panic mode. And the capital is basically

with their early success, have bought themselves like a free slump and still feel right on track. I think that's a big thing. The other thing is they have had a couple of these early season blossoms that might be kind of legit. Connor McMichael was a high level prospect who it wasn't sure which direction it was leaning. I know which way it's leaning now. He looks like a legit top six forward, the kind of guy that the capitals were always going to need if they were going to extend this window. And he looks like he is that. Yeah. And again, you go back to Ovechkin, and we kind of thought this season would be about them propping Alex Ovechkin up, right? And just dragging him to 895 to get him to that Gretzky. It was probably going to go into next year.

Well, I mean, yeah, some of these are empty net goals, but that's what Ovechkin's great. That's a skill. If he has got a pace for 40, 45 goals, he could break the record this year. And that's something we're going to look, nobody wants to have this conversation. But at some point, we're going to have to have the conversation about Alex Ovechkin. We're working. I don't want to give away too much, but we're working on a player poll that we do every year for the athletic. And one of the questions is, do you want Alex Ovechkin to break Wayne Gretzky's record? Every single player I've talked to has said yes.

Without hesitating at all, they think it's great. They think it's awesome. There's a lot of people out there that don't think this is awesome. And it's hard for me. It's kind of like separating the art from the artist. here where I want to see Ovec can do it. He's the greatest goal score I've ever seen. He's probably the greatest goal score of all time.

And yet, you know, this is a guy who's very public politics is going to, at some point, he's going to have to be asked more direct questions about his ties with Vladimir Putin. At some point, this is going to get really uncomfortable. At some point, it's going to become a distraction. It's always been kind of like hinted at, but it's never really been front and center. If he starts threatening the most hallowed record in all of high, hockey, it's going to become front and center. And I think it's interesting what you said about all the yeses too, right, like in that

context. Because I think when we put that question on the poll, our expectation was that it was going to be closer. Yeah. Right. But I think what's happening is you, you want to be, you want to tie to greatness, right? Anyone that we're talking to here has played against Alex Ovechkin or expects to sometime this year, right? And I think there is something about people wanting to say, oh, yeah, the greatest goal score ever.

Yeah, yeah, I played against him. He scored one of those goals on me or I stole a puck off him or whatever, right? Like it's, I think that's the tie. But I think in the broader consciousness, you're right. I think the public is going to be who has the harder time, you know, because it's ultimately about celebration, right? It's extremely easy to celebrate Wayne Gretzky. There may not be a more like affable major star, you know, not offensive.

Yeah, exactly. Yeah. You know what I wonder, you know, we're in our little bubble of hockey. We know way too much about hockey. We spend way too much time talking about hockey. How much does the casual sports fan know? Like, oh, Alex Ovechkin's Instagram photo is him with Vladimir Putin. I mean, it's like he's not subtle about it, you know, Putin team and all that stuff.

I wonder how much casual fans know about it. They know who Alex Ovechkin is, but do they know about this? Is this going to become an issue as it's brought to the front and center? Are people going to backlash against it becoming brought up? Why does this matter? Why do we have to talk about this? it's going to become a big it's going to become an issue and I'm curious just how much the general public knows, not just our little hockey obsessive bubble. And I don't know how much the general public's ever going to get that into it is the thing, right? I think hockey for better or worse, it's a sport of diehard fans. And I don't think the cash. Now, maybe the all time goals record, maybe that is the kind of thing, especially this happens to be a pretty politically charged year, Laz. I don't know if you're getting the same TV commercials. Why is some going on?

It does seem possible that it, you know, penetrates a little bit into that sphere. The thing about is Alex Ovechkin, like, you take that out, he's such a likable player, right? He's always played like his hair was on fire. He delivers big hits. He's passionate. He celebrates in a big way. He's exciting to watch. He's funny in quotes.

He does funny commercials. Like, everybody in theory likes Alex Ovechkin until they come to this part of it. And then you wonder how much, you know, it's Russia, man. How much does he even? have a say in this? Is he, is he being forced to do this stuff? Like, how much do we hold against him? It's such a complicated issue in a lot of ways, but it's also not. It's black and white. It's a freaking war criminal. And, you know, he's cozying up to him. And I don't know how to handle that in this public discourse about, you know, this incredible chase of an incredible record. Well, I think what you

just said does get at what the response typically is, is that, like, who knows how none of us really, I've never been to Russia. I don't know if you've been to Russia. I went to the Olympics and Sochi. That was barely even Russian. That's the extent of it, right? Like, I just don't think we have that good of a feel or can have that good of a feel for the implications of that, right? Like, I don't, I don't know if we'll ever know what the level of expectation, coercion even, right? It's something like that carries with it. And I don't know that we can know that. And maybe that's me given myself a get out of, get out of, well, we had, we had this is we had the same discourse during the, the Pride Night Yaskos, where, you know, a lot of Russian players.

didn't want to wear the pride jerseys. Is it because they're bigots? Or is it because they have families back in Russia and there's a law about showing any kind of display in favor of the queer community? Like, there is nuance here when it comes to Russia and to Russian athletes. But there's also, it's also not a lot of nuance.

It's also bad guy, bad policies, not the guy you want in your Instagram photo. Like, in a lot of ways, it's cut and dry. And so we talk about, you know, Nikita Zedorov And Artemi Paneraan are out there, you know, bashing the Russian government. And they deserve all the credit in the world for taking those courageous stances. But if you have family back in Russia, if you have, you know, your family or, you know, extended family,

if your parents are back in Russia, it's understandable that you might have some concerns about that. Like, I don't know how realistic those concerns are. I remember, you know, the NHL made by a statement saying they have no reason to think anyone's in any actual danger there. But do we know that? I don't know. So it's a really, it's a really. It's a discussion we've all kind of glanced around over the last few years with Ovechkin. And as he gets closer to 894, it's going to be something we're going to have to reckon with.

So we said we were going to do that conversation. We just did six minutes on it. Exactly. To reel it back a little bit. Here's where I was going to go with this is I think a good Washington Capitals team is better for his odds of getting his record. Because I think if the record becomes the whole thing, if the season becomes about beating Ovechkin for 45 games trying to get them to the record, I don't think it happens this year.

But I think if they're in a legit chase and they're a good team and this stuff is coming in flow and it doesn't just become this kind of too big for the team, bigger than the team, I guess is the way to put it. If it doesn't become bigger than the team, that's when I think it goes off the rails. But I think if there are a legit playoff contender and they certainly look like it so far, I like that for his odds of breaking the record this year.

And that's what we feared it was going to be. I think a lot of us expected it was going to be that. just this dragging Ovesque into the finish line thing. But remember, this is a guy who scored 50 goals just three seasons ago. He may be up in age and he might have as much gray hair as I do, but this guy can still shoot the puck. So, I mean, it is not inconceivable that he can score 40 plus goals this year. All right.

All right, let's take a quick break right there. We're going to come back with Chris Johnston, and we're going to talk about some of these bubble teams and how they get out of this early start. All right, we're back. And we are joined now by our NHL Insider at the Athletic Chris Johnston. And CJ, our main topic today is going to be about some of these bubble teams that have put themselves in a little bit of an early hole. In some cases, they weren't

expected to be bubble teams. I think Colorado would certainly jump to the front of that list for me of a team that's off to a slower start. Maybe some of it's expected with injury. But I want to start actually with Boston because we saw something really interesting with this Bruins team today. David Pasternak doesn't take a shift in the third period. The Bruins obviously off to a slow start. Is this Jim Montgomery just really trying to push whatever button he can at this point? Well, there's obviously an element of that. And we actually saw this even in the playoffs. Montgomery called out Pashtonac by name in the first round series against Toronto. It was actually after game six of their series. Passack scores the

overtime winner in game seven so we can all just conclude, hey, tiny bit of business from a coach there, that worked. Obviously, he's looking for a similar response, but I think, you know, what my takeaway here is that this is a coach that we know is in the last year of his deal. It was a tough week for the Bruins. I mean, it actually had a good weekend. They win back-to-back games. Don't give up a goal against and their wins over Philadelphia and Seattle. But, you know, it's hard not to see the top line takeaway, even with the two victories, is their star player didn't play in the third period of Sunday's game against the Cracken. And so, you know, I think it's a coach very much pushing the buttons he can,

you know, trying to get the team on track, but also, you know, clearly understanding that his own job security is at least somewhat in doubt or in question. And especially if they don't turn things around soon. So, you know, it feels like, yeah, you get those two wins. But, man, I mean, going into a big week, you know, they're in Toronto on Tuesday, obviously a big rivalry game whenever the Leafs and Bruins play. You know, there's still a fair degree of urgency in Boston.

This isn't one of those ones. We're like, oh, let's see where we're at, you know, in a couple weeks time at Thanksgiving or something like that. I think that, you know, they're under pressure to win games now. And, you know,

the good news in the very small picture is they got a couple wins in the weekend, but it doesn't feel like they're totally out of the woods just yet. Isn't that a little insane that we're talking about Jim Montgomery's job security coming up the two years that the Bruins have had the last years? It's unbelievable to me. I've been around this league forever, and it's still unbelievable to me how quickly teams will turn on a coach. Oh, the message is stale.

Oh, we need a new voice in here. I mean, like half the league has been hired in the last like three days. It's unbelievable how quick teams are to yank a coach or even like even the threat of it. What is it about hockey that causes this? You know, I think it's the easiest thing to do. I mean, in this case, Montgomery is not signed beyond the year. So there's not even, it's not that much of a financial decision. I mean, obviously, if they were to let him go at some point during this year,

they're on the hook for the rest of the season. But, you know, the Bruins could probably count on him getting replaced again. I mean, that's, that's the other weird part about this is teams are changing coaches, knowing that person is a pretty good coach and that they're going to get hired again. I mean, you know, Lindy Ruff got fired by the doubles and hired by the Sabres. It's just one that pops to mind. It was before his contract that even kicked in, I think New Jersey, give him an extension.

but they're not on the hook when it comes financially. I mean, so I think part of it might be that system. You know, over time, I do think that the league salary cap system has maybe choked off some trade, you know, potential or roster moves.

I actually think we're coming out of that now, you know, with a couple years now where we've seen the cap jump again. There's fewer teams that are true, like there's not many teams that would say they have lots of cap room, but there's definitely more cap room than there's been. And we've already seen a couple trades made. It feels like there's more trade top.

happening. So that might extend the shelf life of coaches. Maybe coaches paid the price in a strange roundabout way because those pandemic years did make it harder to make roster moves. But, you know, I don't sure that there's one answer that I have all the answers, but certainly it's hard to ignore the trend. I mean, I think there's 14 coaching changes last year, something like that. I mean, anyone who lasts three years has basically beat, beat the odds that you beat sort of the average if you get to three years. I mean, John Cooper got the four cup finals. So obviously, he's 10 years plus in Tampa, but unless you're, unless you're getting to the final or you're the absolute king of the mountain, you're going to last three to five years in the league.

That's just the reality. You know, I think back to 2008 when the Blackhawks fired Denny Savard four games into the season, because they had Joel Quenville on staff and they were just looking for a reason. Now, we could all say what we want to think about Joel Quenville, whether he belongs back in the league. He's going to get a job probably sooner than later. Does the fact that he's out there, does that, will that play into any? of these teams decisions.

The first one to do it, it's going to be the one that gets them. It has to be part of the calculation. You're right. I mean, we can put aside whatever personal feelings we might have. You know, since July, Joel Quinville's been able to work in the league. You know, it was different for him and Stan Bowman is usually you just don't see head coaches hired in July. I think it was July 10th or 11th. We're officially, you know, Quenville, Bowman and Almec Isaac were allowed back to work in the

NHL. You know, Stan Bowman subsequently, of course, hired by the Edmonton Oilers. for their vacant GM position, you know, I think it is probably a matter of of when, not if for Quinnville. And,

you know, in fact, I think he's got the ability, frankly, even though it's been three years since he's coached in the league, to be picky. I mean,

I would imagine when he comes back, it's going to be on a team he feels has a chance to win. You know, I don't see him in a rebuilding situation or with a young group. I think he's brought in kind of as a closer kind of idea with,

you know, probably a couple year shelf life with that, that team. And, you know, I think it has to be in your minds if you're one of the teams that feels like you have the kind of roster that could win, maybe for whatever reason, it isn't happening that you might want to get ahead of that. But, you know, it's kind of weird circumstances and timing just because Kwenvo wasn't available really in the last round of coaching hires. But he's sitting there clearly is the most experienced and, you know, easy person to bring into that kind of situation. Again, you know, we can get into what happened with the Blackhawks and whether that's going to, you know, maybe affect something. teams just might not want to go there.

But certainly I think a lot of them will, and I do expect we'll see Joel back in the league at some point. CJ, you mentioned the trademark a second ago, and let's start with Boston because we were there. Do you see any, I mean, it's tough for them because I think what they really lack is the top six center. And it's very early to be moving a top six center. But you think there's anything that they can do on the trade market to kick this into gear a little bit? You know, they're in a tough spot. They're one of the teams that are pretty choked out from a cap perspective. I think they're hoping that Matthew Pouatra can come along and fill a roll down the middle.

But the truth is, look, they signed the last Lynn home in the summer. They have Charlie Coyle already. Perhaps as we get closer to March 7th in the trade deadline, they're able to add to that position. But I don't see them having out there what we might call a quick fix or an easy solution to that problem. It's more probably teams that are looking for depth. I mean, we saw the Olimata trade to Utah last week from, from Dubei. Detroit, the Leafs traded Lilligran to San Jose. I think there's certainly players available when you're looking sort of down the

roster. I don't see any blockbusters on the horizon. I think the Bruins, you know, further to it all are just a little bit limited what they can do for cap-wise. I mean, strange as it is, they have Tyler Johnson still around their team right now. He attended training camp on a tryout. You know, he's hung around. He's still skating with them in Boston anyway and hoping to get a job.

I mean, you know, probably if we look at. changes it might just be something like that perhaps there's a cap move made where they can sign tyler johnson um but you know for all intensive purposes i think short term i'm you know barring some major injury it's it's the the solution has to come from within which is why you see you know jim montgomery pushing those buttons why he's he's pushing the pastor next because you know i think when you look at the passion acts the marshawns even charlie mackavoie some of the top players on that team really have not had good starts of the year and so you know let's go to any team in a league and take your top four or five paid players if they're not

playing well, you're probably not going to have a good record. And that's where Boston is right now. What about a team like the New York Islanders? I feel like they're perpetually on this bubble that we're talking about today. You know, Matt Barzel is out long term now. Adam Pelick is out long term. You know Lou is Lamarillo is not going to just sit there and just be comfortable finishing him 11th place. He's going to do something. What do you see him doing in New York? Well, short term, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them added offensemen. You know, they have a couple other guys, Pellick's out longer term, as you mentioned there. they do have some cap room and some wiggle room and they're they're kind of in a weird year i mean

it's maybe a little below the the radar i'd say nationally but you know brock nelson is a pending ufa uh with the islanders i'll tell you this because i'm already starting to think about my trade board if the islanders and we're not they're not there yet but if they get to a point where they're not in a playoff picture i mean that he will be probably the number one available player one or two um at the deadline just because so many teams look at what he can bring he could be a second line center for you. You can be a winger, even on your top line, can obviously play in all situations. He scored a lot. It just, just a solid player. And so, you know, I feel like in Long Island that it's, it could, it could go either way season. And then you, you compound the injuries there and the

fact they have cap space. I think that the first set of moves for Lou will be to try to find a few solutions to get them through this window, to get them to the point where they're getting healthy again. And they can be in that playoff race. And then, you know, one thing I'm certainly watching, again, with that trade port always somewhere in my mind is that if if they get to January or February and it's not going their way, then then do they pivot and start selling assets specifically Nelson. So, you know, I think it's a compelling year for the Islanders because it feels like it can go a couple directions and isn't off to the best of starts. But, you know, I'm with you. I think Lou La Merello will be making a move or two short term before we ever yet to, you know,

having to consider some larger decisions like what they do with Nelson. I won't be allowed back home if I don't pedantically point this out on Long Island, CJ. On, on. I'm sorry. Required by law as a native to point that out. I actually love being on Long Island. So if I've had great times, even at the Coliseum,

I had great times covering games there. I grew up there. I'm going to forever be a little bit sort of sentimental about that place because I just, I love going to games there. That was a professional Mayaculpah, but we just witnessed right there, folks. C.J, how about Colorado? because I look at that team and we all know the talent they've had and what they still have, really.

They're banged up, certainly. But I really look at the goaltending right now and they've given up, I think it's the most goals in the league right now. I think they've played one less game than a couple of the teams around them. So I don't know how that factors into things. But it's not going well in net for them right now. Yorgi have off to a tough start. They're relying a lot on a noon. And is there a goaltender move out there for them to make?

Is it too soon for that? What do you think? Probably too soon for the goaltending move. but I'm with you. I think it's inevitable. I mean, there's so many different moving pieces in Colorado. I think that's what makes them compelling this year.

I mean, look, part of it is Gabriel Landiscag hasn't played in two plus years. He's trying to make a comeback. They can't know. Like, there's just no way to know what he could be. Could he be 60% of what he wants was,

80%, 110%. I mean, who can guess, but obviously they're supportive of his, you know, he's put a lot of work into trying to get back and it's still intending to do so. You have it the other side,

Nachushkin, you know, coming out of stage three of the NHL, NHL-NHLPA player assistance program in, you know, less than two weeks time, you know, what's he going to be? I mean, he basically has been away from the team since the playoffs when he kind of disappeared again for the second straight year. You know, he's obviously been receiving treatment, but I don't know, they know what he can be. And so they certainly can't be bringing in players that take the cap space of both Landiscag and Nichikens. So that's, I think it's 16, 17 million roughly.

For those two, they have a whole host of other injuries in the short term, and you're right, they have no goalie. Or, you know, Justice Annen, at least to be fair, has given them some pretty good games here and won some games for them. It's not gone well with Gorgiev, you know, started the year as their starter that, you know, they picked up Kackinan in from Winnipeg on waivers. It just, it just feels like they're really in one. Now, you know, when we look back, we might say, wow, like all that crazy starts of the year.

like that that was the sort of thing this team needed to get through and they got healthier and they made some moves and they go on a cup run because I'm with you. I mean, it's hard to ignore. They have some key pieces in place that lots of other good teams in the league don't have. Yeah. And so, you know, I think that certainly the sense I get out of Colorado is they're going to turn over every rock to obviously make this a year where they have a chance to win the cup. But some of it is beyond their control.

I mean, some of it is just like Ken Nuchuchin can come back in November and be an effective player or not. you know, when does Landis Cog play? You know, if there's a world where he can't play, then they can all of a sudden put his money on LTIR and they can be making a pretty big acquisition in season. And then obviously the goaltending piece, I think will still come into play before March 7th.

So I would say of any team that reasonably could say they have a cup chance, it could still go in a couple different directions for the avalanche. They could be, you could tell me they're going to be a top tier contender or that this weird star cross season goes totally against them. You know, right now that's not close. But yes, they're going to get a goalie, I think. But I think that's a move that comes closer to March 7th. You mentioned your trade board.

And it's never too early to talk about the trade debt. I remember a couple years ago, Scott Powers and I were like, we have nothing to write about. We're just going to Patrick Kane and Jonathan Taves literally every day for four months. We're four months out and this is coming. Do you ever get people going like when you start talking about that, releasing that, asking about that, publishing that? Just like, dude, come on, man. Can you give us a few more weeks?

It's too early for this nonsense. Cut us some slack. There is an element of that for sure. But I will say this, like even in talking, you know, just the conversations I have with people who work for teams, you know, teams themselves are thinking, like there's not an action item necessarily as we're sitting here at the very start of November.

But, you know, there's a lot of good teams that are thinking, like we need to get a right shot deep at the deadline. And they're even making cap moves, you know, like whether it's sending players down to the HL to try to, you know, maximize their cap space. Like, like as much as, yes, I think we maybe go a little silly with it at times where we're, you know, we're saying this person could be traded if his team is crappy in three months. We don't even know if they're crappy yet.

Like, we are getting admittedly a little ahead of ourselves, but I do think the teams themselves are thinking this way. Honestly, I mean, you know, they have their own lists internally of potential targets with the same assumptions as that I'm making that, you know, if it goes terribly on Long Island, that Brock Nelson might be a pretty intriguing piece to put into our lineup. And so, you know, I'll defend, I'll defend the exercise, but I will admit, yes, we, you know, I already put out 10 players that could be traded. And I did get a couple texts like, what do you doing, man? It's October. So, you know, fair play. I think they start earlier than we do. I think, I think that's the truth of it.

Yeah. Well, there's people that work in every organization that's their job. Like, there's people that right now are thinking like seriously about 2025 for agency. Like, are we going to have money? money to spend, what would we pay a Marner or Rantnan or Shisterkin or whatever, even though, you know, let's face it, maybe all three of those players don't even hit the market in the end. Maybe they're signing extensions. But I mean, I think you have to be with a team. You have to be on one hand, you're doing the day to day, but you also need to be thinking out,

you know, a year or two or three years sometimes. So, you know, we're doing some of that work for them or alongside them. But, you know, I think what you're saying is right, Laz. Like, they don't necessarily like us shining a flashlight in that direction any sooner than we need too. I want to close with this one, CJ. We're talking today, like I said, about some of the bubble teams who have dug early holes. I'm going to give you five teams. You tell me which one you'd be most concerned about. Three we hit, Boston, the Islanders, the Aves, the Predators and the Oilers. Who start concerns you the most? I think the predators, just because they spent so much money in free agency, they don't have the proof of concept. Like, I know last year they went to the playoffs

that they rebounded nicely from the point where they're canceling their U2 concert plans and then they win for like a month straight. But, you know, they don't know for sure that this is going to work. You know, I'm just meeting with Shea, with Stamcoast, with Marcia. So there's huge, you know, financial commitment there. But I think like it's a directional commitment too from the organization to sign those types of players. And they've dug, I think, the biggest toll. I don't have the standings right in front of me.

But, you know, it's, it's been more than just a five game losing streak to start the season. Like, it's sort of continued on. And so, you know, Edmonton, I'll give the benefit of the doubt because they do know, it's going to work. They did it last year. They pulled out of a much bigger hole than they're in today. You know, like David's injured as we're recording this now, but it doesn't sound like that's going to be a long-term thing. I just I just think they're going to get out of it. Colorado, I'm betting on, even Boston. To me, the Preds are the team that it, you know, this, to have it go this direction after all the excitement of July 1st is a tough place to be.

And so they're the one I have the most concern about today. Great stuff as always, CJ. Thanks so much for joining us. We're going to take a quick break right there. We'll get into the rest of that when we come back. All right, we're back. And Laz, we kind of tease it in the last segment. We're talking today about which of these teams that are currently find themselves a little behind the eight ball here as we as we careen toward Thanksgiving and that line of doom. And we talked a lot with, with CJ, about Colorado specifically from a goalie perspective. But he also hit on kind of the injuries they have, some of the absences in their lineup. So I want to play a little game with

you right now. I want you to tell me as many players as you can in Colorado's 12 forwards right now. How many of Colorado's 12 forwards? Can you name? Oh, God, I can't even do that for Chicago and I cover them. You're killing me here. Nathan McKinnon, Miko Rattenon, and a bunch of guys that aren't playing very well right now.

Give me two more. I think you can get two more, but I don't think you can get more than that. Well, Ross Colton just got hurt, so I can't go that. What's it? Artare Likonin's back, right? I can go with him. Yep, you can go with him. Jonathan Druand's out. Landisogs out, Natushkin's out. So you got more guys that are out.

Yeah, we might be on to something here. There might be a problem here. You know, you can talk about the injuries all you want, and it's a problem. It's not the problem. They're giving up four and a quarter goals again. For sure, for sure. Four and a quarter.

The thing about Colorado is like, you look at their numbers and they're not playing that poorly. Their metrics are all pretty decent. Yeah, they're injured, but the guys that are filling in are doing okay. They're giving up four and a quarter goals again. game. They're outscored, I think it's 30 to 20 at five on five. This is just absolute trash goaltending. And you can't overcome trash golden. We were talking about this in the press box at LCA earlier this week as this story's been developing. Obviously, everyone in the league is watching

this a little bit right now. They seem like the New Jersey of this year right now. In the last year, New Jersey was the team that's like, yeah, all the underlines are healthy. Everything looks like it should be good. It's just the goaltending. Is the goaltending going to come around? And that's why I asked the question to CJ ultimately is that I do think that that's what it has to be. And I understand wanting to wait as long as possible. There's cap considerations to all of this. But New Jersey waited too long last year to address this. And I do wonder if they had done something in December, if their season doesn't take a quite different turn. Maybe you can't get Jacob Markstrom in December or whatever. But even if they just get Jake Allen a little earlier than they did, right, where does that leave

them? So I do think if I'm the Colorado Avalanche, I am pushing to make a goaltending move in the next like six weeks. Maybe it's not possible. Maybe it's naive of me. But I think I would want to give them as real a shot as possible to fix that problem and get acclimated as early as possible. The challenge is, is who do you go and get, right? Like, who's really available that can be a difference maker? Like, I look, I'm in Chicago. I'm covering the Blackhawks. Peter Morazick is a guy who's played really spectacular behind a terrible team for a year plus now. And he's signed for two more years. I look at him as like a guy that if I'm another team, I'm going to go looking for him. But I don't think the Blackhawks want to move him because he's keeping their team up and they want

to be more competitive and they're trying to be a little bit better for Connor Bedard. Like there's not a great option out there. There's not an easily rentable goalie this early in the season almost anywhere because very few teams are out of the race, right? So it's always so hard to make a trade for a significant player this time of year. You're going to have to get someone off the waiver wire. You're going to have to get someone off the trash heap and hope that that something magic happens when they arrive because there's just not an easy fix out there. Well, the reason that we were talking about it in the press box at LCA the other night, Las, is that I do wonder.

It was like 30 goalies in Detroit. Yeah. Exactly. And I do wonder if their season continues to trend the way it has. Alex Lyon seems like a perfect fit for them. He's been outstanding for like two and a half years now in different locations. He's played on good teams. He's played on teams that are not so good.

He's been pretty good as long as he don't overwork him everywhere he's been and he makes him like 900 grams. So I think that's a solution. it's just a question when would Alex Lyon come available. Yeah, he's a magic maker too. He did it in Florida. He's a season saver. He's got a history.

Yeah. So I think that's like the like I could project this six to eight weeks down the line. I wonder if we're not talking about that a little more often. If Detroit season continues going the way it has, I'm sure they're going to do everything they can to not let it go there. But it's been a rough start there. And I play in a little bit of matchmaker. I think that one would make sense.

Can I read you some of these names in this abs lineup though? I'm just ticker. Sure. Yeah, go shoot for it. Nikita Pristepov. Do you know he's in the NHH? Never heard him. Nikolai Kovolenko, T.J. Tyne, Chris Wagner, and Oliver Shillington, who is a defenseman,

he's at least listed in their forewheres as I look at their daily faceoff lineup right now. They're banged up. And I think they're going to get healthy and that's going to help a lot. But the goal attending, I think, is the key to. I think they've given up at least five goals in seven of their losses. like you can't win. You absolutely cannot. It doesn't matter who's healthy.

You could bring back Ray Borek and you could bring back Joe Sackick and you're still not winning. Yeah. All right. So CJ took us into the Nashville and that's the team that's the most concerned about. I'm inclined to agree with that because I think they're the team that went and got the older guys. And I think you want that to be a little more plug and play. Even if you know it takes a little bit of acclamation time, you wouldn't got those guys to win quick. You didn't do it because you think you think.

you're going to win on year three and four of those deals that they gave to Stamcoast in March and Marge so. Yeah, and not only, I mean, Stamcoast has just two goals. The Predators have only scored one five-on-five goal with him on the ice. One, we're already 11 games into the season. You know, Yossi is a minus eight. I think he's down, he's minus six at five-on-five. Brady Shea is getting outscored 13 to five at five on five. This is a team that is just, I think it's, they're the worst differential in the league at five-on-five. This is the worst five-on-five team in league. And that's always the most accurate indicator of how good your team actually is. You know, there's no special team propping you up. They've been outscored 28 to 12 at Evens this

year. Like, and UC Saros, 900 save percentage. That's pretty pedestrian, right? So, I mean, they're not getting the goaltending to bail them out when they're playing this poorly. Yeah, I just, I think with time, it'll go better than it has, but I think you wanted it to go at least better than this early. And they're one of these teams that, you know, I think the West is a little more manageable generally to navigate, but you start looking up in the standings already if you're Nashville. Winnipeg is like almost already unattainable for you to catch. We talked about Minnesota in passing a little bit, but they're off to a nice start.

And is Nashville better enough than Minnesota to erase, it's almost already a double-digit gap? Well, it's going to take another 16 and 0 run, right? That's what it took last year. And they're sitting themselves up for that same kind of thing. And I just called up their schedule here. This is what they got coming up. The Kings, the caps, the Panthers.

Utah, the aves, the Oilers, the flames, these are, there's no gimmies in there. Like, they could be in real, real trouble when we actually get to the Thanksgiving line of Doom. Yeah. The Bruins, who we talked about a little bit at the start of that with CJ, are in a, obviously it's been a tough go for them, but I would say that they're in the most advantageous spot of the teams that we talk about other than Edmonton. I think we all think Edmonton's going rise from this pretty quickly. The Atlantic has been so mediocre for as much as we've talked for years about how hard it is to make it out of the Atlantic. It's a pretty big clump of mediocrity outside of the Florida Panthers right now.

And the lightning have been good. They haven't been amazing. They've been good. But they're at 14 points. They're 12 games. The Bruins are at 13 and 13. That's not that big of a hole. So if they can write the ship,

they really are not that far behind the eight ball rate. Yeah. I mean, you know, it's going to take either Ottawa or Detroit, one of these other teams to really get their acts together to threaten Boston right now. I don't think Boston really feels threatened. They are not happy with where they're,

they're at, but I don't think they feel threatened. Now they come up back to back shutouts. Yeah, they've been pretty good. They've been pretty good. Like, I don't think they're threatening good yet, but they're going to be in that mix. I wonder if that Carolina game, that, what was it, 8 to 2 loss on Halloween night, maybe that was the wake-up call that they were looking for because, well, we got back-to-back shutouts now, Corpusalo and Swamen.

They just look so sloppy. They look like an amateur team out there. There's so many of these games, just giving pucks away, and they're sloppy with the puck. They're sloppy with their sticks. They're taking penalties. They just, it's so bizarre because we're so used to Boston being this, like, pristine, perfect team. And the thing that concerns me for them is they have not been through this before. The last two years, they've gotten off such incredible starts that they just kind of cruise into the playoffs.

It was, what, I think it was 11 and 1 last year and 17 and 2 the year before that, they have not been in any kind of position like this where the regular season games matter. They have not been an important regular season games in several years. and I'm sure they'll be fine in theory, but we haven't seen this team tested in the regular season. They're going to have to be kind of scratching and clawing the next little while to get kind of out of that red line area. Yeah, you were just talking about, you know,

somebody like the senators is going to have to kind of put them into check, so to speak, to use Chester. There's a game between those two teams coming up next Saturday. November 9 is way too early to call anything a big game, but it kind of feels a last win. Gotta have it. And then there's the Islander. And I think I agree with C.J. Nashville is the team I'm most worried about, but the Islanders, I think, because of the injuries have to be right behind them.

Well, it's a different story, right? Because Nashville was expected to be a contender this year. And I don't think anybody really thinks that, like, I feel like every year for the last decade, everyone predicted the Islanders were the team that was going to fall out of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. So that in Ottawa, Detroit or a Buffalo can move in. And so it seems like everyone's been waiting for this to happen ever. It seems like they're always kind of held together with like duct tape. chewing gum to get into the playoffs. You never want to rule out a team that's got Ilya Sorokin, but yeah, that's the team that should be the most concerned because they don't have the pedigree of these other teams to, you know, it's not a huge shock that they're scuffling a little bit early on.

I'd be less concerned if they would commit to playing Ilya Sorokin more than half the starts compared to what they are right now where they're splitting is 50-50 with Varlamov. Everybody wants a rotation now. Everybody wants Olmark and Swamen. I get it. I don't think it's a bad play, but I think that you want like 5527 or 5230. I still think it's okay to have your number one goalie play 60 games. I don't think that's unreasonable. I think that these guys are in the best shape of any goalies in the history of the sport,

and they could probably play 60 games this season. I think we just heard Mark Lazarus call someone a snowflake. No, because it's the coaches and GMs that won't let them do it. The goalies all want to play. The wussification of America? Is that what you're saying? of the NHL? Have you been in my Twitter mentions lately? Oh, plenty.

Everyone's a beta. You'll never find my, you'll never find my burner. My banish team that you're losing to right now is the soy boys. That's true. Am I still losing? I believe you are because

Arvid Soderbloom's coming to save the day of all people. We're recording this on Sunday night. So if you're hearing this on Monday, just know that going into the third period of the Edmonton Calgary game, no one is rooting harder for a Jeff Skinner goal than I am so that I can be on that. If Arvins Soderbloom is up

four goals in the third period, I'm going to be very upset. Yeah, I don't know if I see that one coming. I have seen it happen many times. Anything else you want to hit on here as we wrap here? Any other teams that you think are sneaky concern? Montreal, I mean, I don't think we expected them to make the playoffs, but it sounds like they had higher expectations. To be concerned about a team, you had to have expectations for a team, right?

I think, you know, I think the other thing to look at is the other side of that Thanksgiving Doom, like, is Minnesota for real? Is, like we talked about, is Washington for real? Calgary is coming back down to earth. Any of these teams that are surprising you, which ones do you think can actually stay up, stay above that line? Which ones can keep their heads above water here?

Yeah, I mean, I think I'm buying Washington. I think we all expected the devils to be doing this. So I'm certainly not surprised by where they are. I think Utah was a trendy pick to be doing this. I don't think I'm buying the Calgary Flames. I think that's who I'm picking to fall off for the Oilers. I think I expected a little more of a dip from the Kings. to be sitting as high in their division as they are.

I don't love the record necessarily, but I did expect this to be their step back year, and they've handled it actually pretty well so far. The Minnesota Wild are the ones I keep coming back to is this is the team that is absolutely personified mediocrity for the last, you know, what, two or three decades they've been in the league. And here they are. They just not only are they winning,

they're winning in these dramatic fashion, they're pulling games out. Like they have that kind of charmed season feel to them right now. Caprizo, it might be the best play. in the league. He's the MVP right now. At this point of the season, right, he could, he could win the, he's a legitimate guy. You could see him winning an Art Ross.

Like, it's possible, especially in a year that McDavid's hurt for missing a month or whatever it's going to be, three weeks. This is, this team's starting to look more and more legitimate every time I watch them. It's just a really good club right now that is clearly feeling the magic. The reason that they were the image of mediocrity, as you called it for, for so long, or middle of the, I forget what word you use. They didn't seem like they had those stars. They have Capri's off, and that's a big part of it.

But Matt Boldie, I think is a legit star at this point. And I don't know how I already called this guy a star, but I am really excited to see Marco Rossi and how he's kind of come back. And I think a lot of people were pretty much ready to write Marco Rossi off a year or two ago. He's right around a point per game here, 10 games into the season, 11 games into the season. I don't think that's going to keep up the whole season. But if this guy can be a 60 point forward for them, that's a huge deal. and getting them kind of close that star gap that I think they've faced for so long.

Marco Rossi just turned 23, by the way. It's just incredible how quick we are to want to write off some of these guys. Like you're watching the NFL tonight and these rookies are 24 years old. And here we are like, you guys 20. Ah, he's a bust. Get rid of him. He's a change of scenery trade. It's amazing how quick we are to do that.

It's the curse of the top 10th pick. I would way rather be picked 17th in a draft than 9th. You know, here in Chicago, it's Lucas Reichel, right? He was the number 17 pick back in I think it was the 2020, Jay, it was the COVID draft. So in 2020, same draft as Rossi then. Yeah, exactly. And he was the number 17 pick. But there was expectations for him and he didn't meet them last year.

And people were talking, you know, in the first, he got scratched the first two games in the season. Everyone is in my mention saying they need a change of scenery. I'm like, dude's 22 years old. Let's give him a chance. And all of a sudden, the last three weeks he's been playing really well. He's turning Craig Smith into a super productive score. he's getting power play time. Like maybe we just need to like slow the hell down

and give these kids a chance to become grownups first before we write them off. Look at Alexei Lefrenier. Is there a better example than him? No, I mean, that's a perfect case and point. And I'm kind of inclined to even say Capo-Cackel. I'm not very to quite falling on yet, even though he's a year older than those guys

we were just talking about it, as a 2019 pick. But when you have these talented guys, I don't think you can say, well, it needs to be by this age. They're all different. It's going to take a, Different amount of time for their situations to line up.

Some guys need more opportunity than they've gotten. Some guys were thrust into too much responsibility at too young and age and are going to need time to catch up to it. They're all different. There's only so many that can be stars in year two or three. And here we are. We're threatening to fire Jim Montgomery already. So we just we already did.

You already fired it. We are so impatient in this league. It's just absolutely incredible. All right. That's going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of the F. F. Utic Hockey Show. Please, if you're enjoying the show, leave us a

five-star rating and review. The next episode of the show is going to be Wednesday with two shons and a frank. Talk to you then.