The Athletic Hockey Show - Which NHL starts are tricks or treats?

Episode Date: October 27, 2025

We’re just about a month into the NHL season, and a few days away from Halloween, and so there’s no better time to identify the tricks and the treats in the hockey world. Can the Devils and Mammoth keep their hot starts going all year? Can Jack Eichel win a scoring title? Are the Lightning and Rangers cooked already? Get the answers to those questions and much more on today’s episode. Hosts: Max Bultman and Mark LazerusWith: Jesse GrangerExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris FlanneryWatch full episodes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowJoin our Discord Server: https://discord.gg/VTm9VjkFSubscribe to The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus for another episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. And Las, I know you're a big Halloween guy. So let's do some trick or treating here to kick off Halloween week. Which of these NHL teams and storylines are tricking us and which ones are in for a treat? I don't know. I might be laying it on a little thick with the theme on this one. It's that time of year, right?

I mean, look, the hockey's janky in October and so is the podcast. It's fine. That's right. We don't really have that much to discuss yet. But let's start with the Utah mammoth who are giving us plenty to discuss. I mean, they have been one of the best stories in hockey. Logan Cooley looks awesome. Trick or treat on the mammoth. You know, I kind of leaned towards treat. Last year I thought they were going to make the playoffs. This year I thought they were going to make the playoffs. It's a good team. I mean, the Winnipeg win was a good one for me because they really had a pretty easy schedule to that point. They had split a games against Colorado, I think. And That's just a bunch of me that they had beaten, but that's what good teams do, right?

They beat up on the meh. And look, Nick Schmaltz is second in the league in scoring right now. Nick Schmaltz is not going to finish the season second in the league in scoring. He's not going to have 120 points. But on this team, he doesn't need to be, right? He needs to be the fourth or fifth head in the five-headed monster of Logan Cooley, Dylan Gunther, Clayton Keller, J.J. Paterka, and Nick Schmaltz. There's so much talent now that we've been talking about this talent coming up through the pipeline for years,

and it's all here, and they're all kind of realizing their potential at the same time. They've got a good goalie. They've got a good rink. They've got good players. There's no reason to think that the Utah Mammoth are some kind of a fluke. No, I agree. And whether it's, you know, your coolies and your Gentthers and Genther has another big goal on Sunday night, you have this young core coming, but it's the established guys, too. To your point, Schmalt is not going to lead the league in scoring this year, but he isn't a contract year, I believe, and that's certainly a powerful motivator that can keep him playing at a really high level. certainly a lot of incentive every night to come to the ring hungry.

So I am buying the mammoth as well. I'm a little surprised at how hard you sold treat there, though, because when we were show prepping, I think you were a little more hesitant than this, Les. You know, the more I thought about it, I mean, they're there killing it at five on five. Like a lot of the teams we're going to talk about today are riding the PDO train a little bit,

or they're outperforming their metrics, and some of the teams that are struggling are underperforming the metrics. But Utah's just killing it. I think they've outscored opponents 23 to 14 at five on five. to be plus nine through nine or ten games of the season, that five on five is very impressive. They got a bad PK, they got a middling power play, but they're killing it at five on five. And if you're doing that, that's the hallmark of an actually good team that can sustain this a little bit longer. Here's the thing is that we have seen teams like this that play this really fast, young, exciting offense.

As the year goes on and teams get a little more into their structure, you can struggle. If you're dependent on rush offense, that's what dries up. I've seen it in Detroit in recent years. By the time the calendar turns, February, March, teams are really locked in. And obviously, if they can get to February and March plan like this, they might have enough buffer to survive it. But I am curious if they're going to be able to develop a little bit more kind of hard offense to keep this afloat.

Because they're not playing necessarily the most, you know, I hear what you're saying about driving the five-on-five play. But, you know, when you look at the expective goals and stuff, like obviously that is heavily influenced by grade A chances off the rush that I'm not 100% sure are always going to be there. But they have the kind of talent. that should be able to consistently bury a lot of those chances, right? These aren't guys playing over the heads.

We know that Logan Cooley and Dylan Gunther and Clayton Keller. These are high, high-end players that can finish regularly. Will it translate in the playoffs if they do get in? That's a big question. We've seen for years Toronto playing this kind of fun up-tempo style and unable to translate to the rougher, more defensive-minded game in hockey in the playoffs. We've seen that with Dallas, a number of teams. So I don't know if this is a long-term like Stanley Cup contender,

but I see the only reason I could think that they might not make the playoffs is I don't know yet who comes out, right? We talked about this a couple of times now. The teams that are in the playoffs last year that are expected to make the playoffs this year, yeah, there's some slow starts. Minnesota is concerning. St. Louis is concerning. But this is still a murderer's row in the Central Division.

And there's no easy outs anymore. Nashville and Chicago are much more competitive. It's going to be a real grind to get into that. that top four in the Central Division. And there's no guarantee you're going to get a fifth team out of the Central because the Pacific is so weak at the bottom that somebody's going to fatten up and maybe sneak in there. So the path to the playoffs is really difficult, but this Utah team certainly looks like a team that's capable of walking that bath.

Here's my thing about who's going to come out, though. Why is that Utah's problem? It's not September 15th anymore. We're not doing this on paper. They're the team in first place. It's not Utah's problem who it is that doesn't catch up. It's who's going to catch them at this point. And in the central division, like the Minnesota Wild have to be one of the more disappointing

teams. You know, we were on here week one overreactions and in Matt Boldie still looks really good. So I'm not saying we regret that. But the wild as a whole have not kept up with, you know, obviously the excitement around what their top two stars were doing to begin that year. And they look extremely vulnerable to fall out. The St. Louis Blues look extremely vulnerable to fall out. And even to your point in the Pacific, who else is getting in there besides Vegas and

Edmonton? Like you're talking about a fourth team. I'm saying like they're getting their three, obviously guaranteed, but it might be that third team that's in because they fattened up on the bottom of that division. Yeah, I'm not buying the Seattle Cracken, not yet at least. The Kings play that style that really kind of drag you down, defensive, boring style of play that is very sustainable. I still think they're going to be okay in the long term. You know, Vancouver, I don't know.

You're right. I mean, the Pacific is not pretty right now. But that doesn't guarantee a 15 comes out of the central. It never does because. there's a lot of free points to be had there. San Jose is a lot of fun right now, but they're losing a lot of games, and there's a lot of easy points to be had out there in the Pacific. My point is they're the fourth. They don't need to be the 15th, 15. Dallas, Colorado, Winnipeg, Utah. At that point, like, who in the Central is better than Utah? I don't think it's St. Louis. I don't think it's Minnesota.

I don't think Chicago. I agree with you there. But St. Louis and Minnesota have some kind of proof of concept, right? They have been able to do this for an entire season largely with the group they have. Utah is the team that has not shown they can do that yet. They made a nice run last year to get kind of sort of into the periphery of the mix, but didn't really, uh, we never really in a playoff position. So they have to prove it until, until they prove it, they're an unproving commodity, whereas Minnesota and St. Louis, they've been through this. They can handle the ups and downs a little bit better. We'll see what happens when Utah's not on like an eight game win streak here and they have to kind of deal with some adversity. It's still a relatively young team, though those young guys,

they're, they're kind of entering their primes. It's funny. When you were talking about kind of the the fast-paced tempo style, and you made the Toronto Comp. The team that I think about when I think about the mammoth is the recent New Jersey Devils. And there are our next team that we're going to do trick-or-treat on because they're in first place in the East so far and look really, really good. Jack Hughes especially looks really, really good to begin this season. Yeah, Jack Hughes is probably not going to shoot 22.2% the rest of the season. But we know Jack Hughes is a world-class top-five, top-10 player who can do this. He can sustain this if he stays healthy.

The Devils are kind of the opposite of the mammoth in a lot of ways, right? They're doing this with special teams. I think they have their top five in power play, their top one or two in penalty kill. Their five on five play is kind of middling, but they're doing it with special teams. And, you know, it's always curiously which one is more sustainable in the long term. They've done this without Jacob Markstrom most of the season. Jake Allen has stepped in and done a really nice job for them in net. They've beaten some good teams.

They've beaten Florida. They've beaten Edmonton. They've beaten, I think, Colorado. So you look at their stats, you look at their metrics, and it's kind of underwhelming, but they're doing it with goaltending and special teams, which is a proven path to success in the NHL, too, if you can keep that up. But what's interesting when you talk about their five-on-five numbers, like this is not a team historically that we've had concerns about that way. It's still a 51% team, you know, expect a goal share team. Historically, they have dominated the play. To me, what I see when I look at the devil is a team whose roster evolution has taken them from being defined by Jack who, Jack who, Hughes, Jesper Brat, run and gun kind of deal.

They're now the guy who might be the Selky favorite with No, Alexander Barkoff and Nico Heeshire, and obviously he's been there a while, but I think he's ready to take that step in his game. And really, even, I don't even know if this game, it's just maybe more his reputation. The blue line, I think, gets so underrated in New Jersey. And Luke Hughes gets a lot of the attention there. But I think this is as well-rounded and deep a blue line as maybe there is in the NHL when you go top to bottom.

And you talk about the Pesci's Brendan, Dylan, Kovasevic, Seganthal, like, there's all these guys that just play winning hockey on that blue line that compliment their skill forward so well. If I have a question on New Jersey, it's a similar one to the mammoth. Like, how are they going to play when the hockey gets a little bit more rough and tumble below the goal line kind of deal? But roster-wise, like, this looks like a team that I should have zero questions on, frankly. Yeah, especially in an Eastern conference that looks a little bit kind of uninspired so far this year. There's not really a lot of great teams out there. It's there for the taking.

and the devils have been one of these teams. They spiked that great season a couple of years ago and then regressed a little bit. Now I think we're seeing the devils kind of coming into, you know, they're in full right now and we're seeing what the best out of them. But again, and I don't want to, I hate harping too much on the analytics,

but it's a good way of just getting a better feel for the team than just the vibe I'm getting from watching them from time to time. They've only got six guys above water in terms of expected goals, but they've only got five players below water in terms of actual goals. So they are outperforming,

their metrics by a significant margin, and that's what happens when you have good special teams, right? So again, there's a lot of talent. I love the blue line, too. The goaltending's there. The east is there for the taking, but I'm a little bit dialed back on them just because I don't like the way they're playing five on five. I just, Jack Hughes is my favorite player in a league to watch. He is the most exciting, the most entertaining player in league for me to watch. So I love watching the devils do well. I want them to do well, and Lord knows the New York area could use a good hockey team. So, I'm hoping that this isn't just a mirage, but I don't think they're a win eight out of every nine games team yet.

Well, no, nobody is a win eight out of every nine teams in the NHL. But my point is like if this was like a breakthrough year for the devils, right, if this was a team that, you know, we hadn't seen it from or something like that. Yeah, point to the metrics, question of sustainability, all that. We've seen them be a very good team at five on five. We've seen them control play well enough. Certainly when Hughes is healthy, that's who they've been over the years. So I just don't have that same skepticism toward that.

I mean, like I mentioned Kovasevic. He's obviously out right now, but he's going to come back into the lineup and be kind of a bruising element for them. It's going to add something, right? Like there's a lot of reasons, I think, to believe in the devils right now. I'm surprised you're not more bullish on them, frankly. Well, I don't mean to like, you know, rain on their parade here. And honestly, when you look at the metro division right now, it's pathetic, right? It's the devils and a bunch of like, all right, the hurricanes are still there.

Yes. Then it's the penguins. Is anyone really buying into the penguins? The capitals are kind of uninspiring right now. The Islanders are, you know, fun to watch with Matthew Schaefer, but I don't think anyone's looking at them as a serious contender. The Flyers are a mess. The Blue Jackets are middling, and the Rangers are a disaster.

They're dead last in the conference. The Metro is, you know, as weak as the Pacific is right now. It's a two-horse race. So New Jersey is not really going to be threatened here. They're going to be fine. But like you said, will this translate in the playoffs? Their style traditionally hasn't. Yeah.

Not since the trap days of Marty Brodor. So we'll see. You teased it there. Pittsburgh Penguins. That's another team. This is an easy one, right? I mean, this is early season mirage from the Pittsburgh Pegwoods. Yeah, this is the PDO train at work, right?

I mean, Tristan Jerry and Arter's Seelovs, I think they had a combined save percentage last year, like 870. They're like at 918 right now. This is not real. Evgeny Malkin, I love seeing Faggeny Malkin turn back the clock, but he does this at the start of every season, and then he falls off of a cliff. He's not going to score 100 points this year, much as I'd love to see it. This is smoking mirrors right now for the pay. It's fun, good for them.

but it's smoke and mirrors. Yeah, you just don't look at this team, this very young team, and there's some good storylines, right? I mean, you even talked about how, you know, you read some of the names in Yoey's coverage, right, and you're like Harrison, Brunachie, you know, who I really like, Ben Kindle, like, these are names for the future. These are not names for right now shutting down teams to the tune of one, two, even they've had a couple shutouts here, like zero goals against, that they're going to be able to

sustain over here. That doesn't happen with teams this young, with players. this young, even when they also have the legends like your Crosby, your Malkin, your Lattang, you know, Carl, like these are not guys who you're thinking of as shot suppressors outside of really Crosby at this point in his career. If you're a Penguins fan right now, are you just like greeting your teeth? Because it's kind of nice to see Crosby and Malkin flying and the team's winning, but you know this isn't what's best for the team in the long run.

You kind of want, you want your best chance at Gavin McKenna. This is what has sustained the Penguins franchise for 40 years is getting the best player on the planet at age 18. Are you a little angsty about like this is a little thrown off the plan a bit? I can't speak for Penguins fans last, but you and I have been living this for a few years. And I can say if Penguins fans are feeling like this,

do not worry for two reasons. One, water will always find its level and you will end up where you're supposed to end up. Enjoy the good times while they're there because they are not persistent when you're in this state. And two, the lottery does not promise anything either. You can finish with the worst record and end up with the third pick in the draft. And that might be a fine pick this year.

It's probably not going to be like a defining player. You know, there's a few names that are really exciting. Ethan Belkitts, Keaton Verhoff after Gavin McKenna. But you're just as likely to end up with one of them as McKenna. You're actually more likely to end up with one of them if you have the worst record. And conversely, if you finish third or fourth, you don't have that much worse of a shot at McKenna anyway. So I say enjoy the good times. they're there, Pittsburgh.

I'm with you. I remember a few years ago during the Connor Breddard tank here for the Blackhawks, they started the season like four and two. They had a four-game winning streak in October, and fans were like, what are you doing? No, this isn't how it's supposed to work.

And then at the end of the year, against the Penguins, they had this very, the penguins were scrapping and fighting for their playoff lives. Like second and last game of the season. The Blackhawks were dead last in league where they had the best odds of Connor Bedard.

And the Blackhawks went to Pittsburgh and won that game. Buddy Robinson scores this tying goal. one of the most fateful goals now in Blackhawks history, because that leapfrog the Hawks into the third worst record in the league, and the third worst record in the league wound up getting Connor McDavid. Connor Bedard. So it's funny how you stress about tanks like this,

and you've got to be dead last. Dead last doesn't always get you the first pick, and a nice little run in October usually doesn't mean much at the end of the season. Makes the season much more palatable too, right? Because you're going to get better moods from everybody. I mean, now I'm speaking like a reporter, I guess. They don't really care what the players' moods are in the fan base. But better vibes.

How about that? That's the word that I think will be more universal. And it's good to see Ben Kendall have some moments. It's great to see Harrison Brunachie have some moments. It's good to keep Sidney Crosby like invested. If you're someone who wants Sidney Crosby to stay in Pittsburgh, hey, runs like this really help the cause at least because it shows some idea that there can be success. So enjoy it while at last.

I don't think either of us expects that it will. Let's take a quick break right there. It will be right back with more tricks and treats from the earth. early NHL season. All right, we're back, and you guys know it is the best time of year to be a sports fan. You got football, baseball, basketball, hockey, all on the slate. And to celebrate, that MGM is giving you not one but two parley boost tokens to enjoy on any sport.

No matter the sport you choose, there are countless options waiting for your parley picks. So place your parlay and make this sports equinox one to remember. Laz, for years now, you've loved the Dallas Stars. You've been picking the Dallas stars relentlessly to win the Stanley Cup. And you know what? Sometimes I've agreed with you. I still think they're one of the most talented teams, most interesting teams in the NHL. And I really can't argue that their place in the standings is really cause for any concern.

I mean, they're fourth in the central, but it's a tight race. It's very early. I'm looking at that negative goal differential, though. And I'm looking at the fact they've already had a four-game losing streak. And I just feel like something is off with the stars. And I don't know if it's, you know, we give great. to teams like the Edmonton Oilers early in the season for some early season malaise. So maybe we should just do that for the Dallas stars.

But I wanted to take your temperature on, I don't know, a lukewarm start for the Dallas stars, trick or treat. I definitely keep a closer eye on the stars than a lot of teams because I do tend to spend my springs in Dallas covering them. Yep. And you use the exact same term that I either. Just look a little off. Like something's not right there.

New coach, Glenn Gulletson, there's going to be some learning. And any October hockey is going to be messy, but with a new coach, it's always extra messy because you're learning new things. You're thinking out there. You're not reacting. But they've been really underwhelming. And, you know, Meryl Heiskenen had a slow start to the year. There wasn't a lot of offense.

That four-game losing streak was concerning. That went over Carolina, though, over the weekend, followed up with a nice win over Nashville. Kind of settles the nerves a little bit. I have a tough time getting worked up about any of these teams that continually make long runs. And here's the thing with Dallas. Like, we talk about this a lot where we know. really good teams don't really care about the regular season. We said that about Florida. We've said that about Edmonton. They just got to get in and then they know where they can make a run. In your mind,

has Dallas earned that right? They have been to the Western Conference final three straight times, but they've lost all three times. Have they earned the right to go on cruise control in the regular season? Yes. I mean, I think they're the West's Carolina, or the Central, I guess, is Carolina. And in that, you know, we know that they're very capable, they're going to make the playoffs. They're very capable of winning a round or two and then the questions come in the spring. So I have no doubt that Dallas is going to make the playoffs. I guess what my question to you really more is, and maybe it's just something that you're not going to feel strongly about in October, are you seeing anything that does the lack of pop make you feel like, oh, they're not going to have that kind of juice at the end? Or does

it signal similar to what it is with a Florida where it's, you know, they know that they don't need the pop right now. They're saving the pop for when they really need it in in April and May. I think it's more the latter. They don't, they don't look like they're playing with a lot of juice right now. And it is really difficult. I mean, these guys are human beings. And they've been playing, you know, Final Four hockey in late May for three straight seasons. It's really tough to get up for some random weeknight game in, you know, Raleigh or Los Angeles or something.

These games don't feel like they mean a lot when you've played these monster, monster games where they feel like their life or death. So it is a challenge for veteran players. and this is a veteran heavy team. These guys have been around the block a few times. It can be really hard. I saw it in Chicago. It was like that in Detroit before they rebuild. It's been like that in Edmonton and Florida.

They're just kind of, you know, we just got to stay healthy and get through all this. We'll win enough games on sheer talent alone and with our goaltending. And then we'll worry about this stuff later. But remember, the stars finished the season last year on a seven-game losing streak. And it was bad. It was ugly. And it took them, like that Colorado series was a barn burner. because they were still trying to find their legs.

Yes, veteran teams can flip a switch, but you don't want to just limp into the playoffs. So I don't worry about October. I'd worry a little bit more about March and April trying to fine tune yourself so you're peeking at the right time. Yeah, no. And really, you look at the individual players, all the names that you want to see are having good years.

There's nobody who's like, oh, what's wrong with this guy? It's just kind of a, I don't know, it's not really a malaise. Yeah, they're fine. And now that we've said this, they're going to win like six and a round. row. And, you know, that kind of happened. We were talking about Buffalo, but obviously very different starting places for those two franchises. To your point, I do think that the stars have earned that grace that I think we're going to give them here. The Central Division odds, this is interesting for BetMGM. I think they paint a picture of that, too, right? Like, Colorado is the favor of Utah's in first place. Colorado is the betting favor for BetmGM plus 135 to win the Central. Dallas right on their heels plus 225. And then it's a gap. The Jets at plus 600. The Mammoth at plus. plus 650 and the Wild. Cover your ears, Russo Army, plus 2,000.

So the market is not liking the Wilde's chances, but it really sees even clear delineation between the Avs and Stars and then that next tier of Jets and Mammoth. How bad would it be if the Wilde missed the playoffs this year after giving $17 million a year to Carilla Capriza? What would that do to a market that's always on edge? Like Wild fans, they care as much as anybody.

They are so invested in this team that constantly lets them down. how on edge would that city be, those two cities, would they be if they missed the playoffs a year after the year of giving out the biggest contract in history while seeing other superstars take much less money at the same time? And like this was kind of a light at the end of the tunnel year because you had the Parisei Souter contracts like finally lightening up. The cap goes up like the wild were basically playing on a $65 million cap or $70 million

for years while everyone else played with more money because of the Parisei Souter buyouts. This is supposed to be the liberation, and it would be a twist of the knife if they miss the playoffs now. Now, it's early. I'm not saying it's happening. I talked about, I think the mammoth of the fourth team in the central, but there might be five in the central. That might still be the wild. I think they have the star talent, certainly. I think Caprizov and Boldie can put you on their back and you get Boolean going.

You got Faber. I love Joel Erick Seneck. I'm not giving up on the wild, but it looks grim so far. All right. We've already said it's early about 30 times. show. When is it not early? Honestly, when is it? We always talk about American Thanksgiving. That's the answer. I know like Elliot, Elliot Friedman likes the November 1st and there is number, there are numbers to back that up. When is it not early to you, Max? Probably about

Thanksgiving, December. Yeah. That's like a third of the season, though. I know. That's a long way in. So here's the one way I think about this and we're going to go out of tangent here. Hockey season's 82 games, the NFL season 17. Roughly one NFL game is like five NHL games. And so I try to think about like, would I be panicked as a fan if my NFL team was one and one, which is what it is after 10 games? No, I wouldn't think anything of it. Even at 0 and 2, you're like, annoyed, but it's not the end of the world. You start, NFL season, I think you start getting, you know, antsy at like game five, game six, maybe game seven, right around where we are now on the NFL schedule. You translate that out, that's like 30 to 35 games. Yeah, that's fair. That's fair.

But I don't know, at some point, I don't know what the right sample size is. Most of these teams have played nine or ten games now. That's an eighth of the way through the season already. A lot of these teams are going to be what they look like right now. Like you can't expect all. There are so many good teams struggling right now, your lightnings of the world and your, and your rangers. And even your oilers just kind of middling your way through. Florida is a 500 team.

They can't all bounce back, right? Like mathematically speaking, some of these teams are just going to have bad years and someone's going to fall out and someone's going to have, you know, Panic City on their hands. So it's, it's early, but it's not as early as it was last time we talked. Well, that's where I think I buy more into the slow start than I do the hot start as something to read into, right? Like when a team gets out to a great start, Pittsburgh, great example. You're like, okay, well, I still look at what they have on paper and don't see a path for them to continue doing this. For the slow starting teams, you can often see the path, but then you're worried about math, right?

Like if you think a team is like a 98 to 100 point team, but they have a slow start and they only get like seven, eight, 10 points in their first 15 games, you start doing the math and you're like, ooh, they got to be really good now to get to where I thought they were going to be. So you can dig that hole. It's pretty easy to let something slip away from you over the course of 70 games or 65, 60 games.

It's really hard to dig out when you put yourself in that hole. And with the loser point out there, it's so difficult to make up ground. of the national. That's why the American Thanksgiving comp always seems to work. Yes. Because if you're four or six, eight points back, it could take you a month or more to make up that much ground. In baseball, you know, the Mets are playing the Phillies and the Mets are three games back. You sweep a series, bam, tied for first place.

That doesn't happen in hockey. There's so many points that teams just kind of stumble into. If we had three point regulation wins and you had teams really going for regulation wins, maybe you'd see a little bit more, you know, upward mobility in the standings, but it is really difficult to make up ground. the NHL. It is. Speaking of this, let's go to some individual players here and Connor McDavid, who, Connor McDavid statistically, has not put up Connor McDavid like numbers to begin this year. I think you had a note in our show sheet on pace for eight goals this year. I mean,

we know that's not going to happen, but it does kind of underline how quiet it's been, at least on the goal department for Connor McDavid. Well, it's like I said, Jack Hughes isn't going to shoot 22% forever. Connor McDavid is not going to shoot three and a half percent forever. he's a career 15% shooter. Guys pretty good at hockey. So we kind of went through this last year, if I remember. He had a slow start. He only had a few goals in the first month.

And I remember him talking like Daniel Nugent Bowman saying, like I got to start being more selfish here. I got to start scoring goals because he is still handing out a ton of assists. He's still creating plenty. He had a month last year. He had 20 assists in one month. Like he can just make goals materialize out of thin air, whether he's scoring them or not.

But obviously he's got to score him because the Oilers are getting absolutely nothing beyond the big guys, beyond McDavid, Leon Drysidal, and like Ryan Nugent Hopkins, they're getting nothing. Mangapani, Roslovick, Bouchard, Pondkoulson, Trent Frederick, these guys are doing nothing out there right now. So the pressure's really on McDavid to make sure those goals go in so that the Oilers don't have one of those hills to climb that we were just talking about because he has to score 40 or 50 goals the way this team is playing right now.

It is so unbelievably top heavy right now. And the thing is, it's not who he's been for most of his career, right? Like, he mostly lives in the, like, 30 to 40 range goals-wise, and he piles up the assist. But we know it's in there. Because I, and I will go to my grave believing that Austin Matthews scored 60 goals in 2021-22. And McDavid comes back the next year. And whether it was conscious by him or not, I swear, there must have just been some,

oh, you think that's special in his mind? Because he goes out and he does 64, right? And it looks like an outlier year, but it's kind of like, you remember how like they used to Eichiro, like if Eichiro tried to swing for power, he could have been like a 40 home run guy every year, but because he was so dedicated to having the, you know, 300 and whatever average, that's what he did. That's how it feels. Like I think McDavid could have 50 goals every year if he wanted to.

Yeah, he's like Mario Lemieux that way, right? Where he can be the playmaker or he can be the finisher. He can just do whatever he wants out there. If he says like, you know, this is a goal scoring year for me, he'll go out and score 50 goals. I'm a playmaker now. He's going to have 100 assists, which. only a couple of guys have ever done. So he can still turn it on when he needs to.

It's time to turn it on, Conner. They need you to. Yeah, it is. And that's usually where it comes up. When the team is struggling, the team needs the best player in the world to be the best player in the world, there's some takeover effect to it. Now, he also, you know, we say this like it's easy.

Like, he's getting everyone's best matchup every night. And their whole goal is to keep him specifically from scoring a goal, which is part of the reason he's able to make so many plays. He draws this attention. Guys are in on him. He has all world hockey sense, all world skating ability, all world hands, all world everything, and he can find the guy and make the play.

But they will at some point. I mean, this is as reliant a team on its top two players as there is in the league. How do you feel about the Oilers as a team right now? Like, McDavid and Drysidler are arguably the two most talented players on the planet. And I don't feel good about the Oilers at all. Like beyond, I don't, I don't, there's not a whole lot. Like, Matthias Ekholm got walked yesterday. Like, there's not a lot to like right now.

The guys you expect to be good aren't playing well. We know that the goaltending is a huge concern. this doesn't feel like a team that's crying for yet another Stanley Cup run, is it? It's just that we've had this conversation with them both of the last two years, and that's exactly what it resulted in, right? So, like, I agree with you if you were telling, if we were doing like a blind resume thing and you're telling me, you know, team A is off to this start and their best player only has one goal

and, you know, their complimentary players haven't really had any pop. And it's like, okay, yeah, that's a bad sign. But because I know it's the Edmonton Oilers, and I've seen this movie before, I would be lying if I said I was particularly worried about them. Outside of the ways that I worried about them, like, in general, going into the season, I still wonder about the goaltending. I still wonder about, you know, the secondary, you know,

the next wave of scoring when McDavid and Dryside will have quiet nights. But they've proven in the playoffs that they're able to survive that right up until, you know, they have one more hurdle left to clear. But I don't see a reason to say that they're going to fall anything short of what we've seen in the last couple of years because it's exactly what we have seen. And that often is because of Connor McDavid winning a series by himself or Leon Dreisel winning a series by himself. You're right.

They have the guys that can do that. But it just feels like this team doesn't have the depth that the previous two teams have. It doesn't feel like a Stanley Cup contender to me beyond, you know, the three-headed monster at the top of that lineup. And that actually, that is a very important distinction, I guess, that we should make. Because I, you know, two years ago when you had your Dylan Holloways in there, you saw paths for like this guy can break through. maybe there's a couple of those.

Like you're hoping Matt Savoy can have a breakout. Obviously, you know, they signed Jack Rosslovick. We've seen him get hot and have some good offensive stretches here. You know, Vasili put Coles in as another guy who I think, you know, for the pedigree, you wonder, is there just a little bit more in there that can come out? But I do agree. Like when you're looking at fourth line right now, I'm going to read it to you, Isaac Howard, David, Thomas, like Matthew Savoy, until Howard or, and he's another guy who could break out,

until Howard or Savoy has the breakout, that's not striking fear. to anyone's heart. Lizar, Henrique Frederick, like, maybe in a matchup, like, you could see them having a decent amount of success in a playoffs. It's not going to strike fear into anybody. So I do get your point about the depth. And I'm curious to see what Stan Bowman does when we get closer to the trade deadline. Because remember, not only does he want to win, he's got to keep Connor McDavid happy.

He's got to show Connor McDavid that this team will make sure that it is as prepared for the playoffs as possible. So he's going to have, and Bowman's, his time in Chicago, he gave away a. every first round pick he ever had, basically, and just like, whatever, give me a guy right, like a rental. So he's never been shy about that. And there's going to be even more impetus behind that because of the Connor McDavid contract situation. Most years, when we do our preseason, like, athletic poll that they have for us of who's going to win this award and who's going to win the Stanley Cup, I default to McDavid as the heart winner. This year, I remember taking

a long pause with it. And there were three guys that I was really strongly considering. Nathan McKinnon, who I think probably deserved it last year in my mind, at least on the same level as Connor Hullough, Connor McDavid and Jack Eichael. And I picked the Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup this year. So that was part of it was like, well, if they're the best team, I think Jack Eichael's going to be a big reason why he's off to even a better start than I would have forecasted for him. He looks like one of the best players in the league.

And if maybe the best player so far, right up there again, I think similar group of guys, if Connor McDavid's going to have a slow start, Laz. at least goal scoring was. This door is open for Jack Eichael to kind of have his moment and have his heart trophy year. He's the best player on one of the very best teams in the league. Absolutely. And we saw last year he finally kind of popped that really big point total number.

He was healthy. He was in the 90 point total. We're still waiting for him to be like a mega goal score. He's always been like a high 20s kind of guy. But he's got, what, six goals through his first nine games. Yep. If he can kind of become a 40 goal guy, it puts him on a completely different echelon.

He's always been like a tier one, I don't know what he officially was in our tiers, but in my mind, he's like that one B. You've got your McKinnon, dry-sidal, Jack Hughes even, and McDavid, those guys, and then you've got those Jack Eichel types, the guys that you know can get to that point but haven't really gotten there yet.

He's getting there now. He got his foot in the door last year, and if he starts scoring goals at this kind of a pace and can keep that up, he's going to be in that same conversation with some of those guys. What amazes me, too, is they've split up, him in Marner now, right? Like it's Eichel on one line and Marner on another. So it's not even like,

well, yeah, you got these two, you know, dynamic players playing off of each other. They're, able to split them up, which is a huge advantage for Vegas to be able to do and have one of those two guys on the ice at all times. I thought Eichol was probably Team USA's. If not their, maybe their best forward, certainly one of their two or three, a non-cichuk division at the four nations. Like, he's, he's putting his stamp on this. He's, he's always arrived. He's always been an elite NHL player. I think he's elevating into this very top echelon of the league right now. I agree.

There's all the talent in the world. And you're right, by having them separated from Marner, you know, forces opponents to pick their poison. He can get better matchups. You're right, that one of them is on the ice almost all the time. And it's really tough to load up. Who do you load up against? You load up against Eichol or do you load up against Marner?

Because most teams don't have two shutdown lines. So the way they're working it right now in Vegas, this is the path of success is keeping those guys separate. You always want dry sidle on the second line, McDavid on the first. You always wanted cane and taves separated. This is the model for championship teams. It's to have two mega lines. And you don't want to have to load up.

You want to have that option in your back pocket. That nuclear option is always there. Yeah, you're down a goal late. Yeah, 100%. And those guys will get together on the power play. They'll still see time together so that they'll be able to have some of that chemistry. But if you can keep them apart and they're both producing and you're winning, that's the best case scenario by far.

Yeah. All right. Let's take a quick break right there. Jesse Granger is going to be back right after this. for the Granger Zone. Welcome to the Granger Zone. You know whose music that is. Jesse Granger joins us now for the Granger zone.

And Jesse, we're doing tricks and treats today, right? A little Halloween theme. And one of the teams that's been certainly a treat to begin this year is the Montreal Canadians. They have best team in the Atlantic Division so far. It's this young core. I wondered coming into this year, are they really going to be able to sustain this? Is Nick Suzuki going to stay at the same level?

He was at in the second half of last year. Is Sam Montembow going to give them everything he was able to give them last year? The answers to those questions have varied, but the big picture answer is the Montreal Canadians are here. Yeah, they're good. They're fun to watch. One of the most exciting teams in the league in terms of the way they're developing. And from my perspective, in net, there's some super interesting stuff going up in Montreal

because I have been kind of singing Sam Montembo's praises for a few years now. Now, when you look at the analytics, the goals saved above expected, he has always been good for, we're talking two, three years in a row. He's outperformed, I think, what the public's view of him is as a goalie. He's been a very good starting goalie for that team. But early in this year, Sam Montembo is struggling mightily. He's got a 842 save percentage at the moment, which is almost the worst in the league. When you looked at his goal saved above expected, which I just mentioned is a number he is dominated for two or three seasons, he's negative. 6.6 right now, which is dead last. There are 68 goalies that have played in the NHL and Montembo

ranks 68 out of them. Now, goalies have a bad few games here or there, no matter how good they are. So that part of it I'm not concerned about, but what is concerning if you're Sam Montembo is Jacob Dobish, the young, big goalie for Montreal, has come in and played stellar. I mean, he's 5'0. He's got a 940 save percentage, and he saved 10 goals above expected already, which is second in the league behind only Spencer Knight in Chicago. So this, he's young, he's big, he's athletic. He reminds me a lot in terms of the way he plays of Anthony Stolars and what he's doing in Toronto.

He's not quite as big as Stolars. And I was actually surprised to see that that Dobish is only 6'4. I say only 6'4 because when you watch him play, he looks like he's one of these 6, 6, 6, 6, 7 goal. He's like he presents himself massively to the puck. The way he stands, the way he plays, he is a huge goal. He's got great lateral movement, which is usually what is like the biggest issue when you have a goalie of that size. And he's playing really, really well right now. And if you look at the way the Canadians have distributed the starts, I mean, it's like early on, it was Montembo is getting three out of every four.

Well, the last four games, Dobish has played three out of four. And goaltending can turn on you quick. Montembo is a good goalie. I don't think he's done. But it is interesting. And we may be seeing a change of the guard in net for Montreal right when they're hitting their window that they think they can win. All right, I have a highly technical question for you. Why is goldending so stupid?

Why does this happen? How do guys just forget how to play? How do guys come out of nowhere and then they're all of a sudden like the best goalie in the world? This happens with goaltending more than any other sport. You don't see just like some random defensemen come out and all of a sudden be kale McCarr. Other than like Jonathan Chichu, you don't have a guy just randomly potting 50 goals one year. Why is goldending particularly prone to this happening? Yeah, it's super volatile.

I think the answer is just how slim the margins are. I think that this and I say that in two different ways. The margins in terms of how like the difference between success and failure at the position is so small. Like there aren't defensemen who can kind of do what Kail McCar does, but they're just like a millimeter slower than Kail Makar. That doesn't exist. Whereas in goaltending, you look at like Connor Hellibuck and Igor Shusirke and the best in the world. Well, there are a hundred goalies that can do exactly what they do, but they're like a millimeter slower than they are. So when the margins are that slim, you can go from being great to being terrible or from terrible to being great that easily.

And then the other thing is, I just think that goaltending is deep. The pool of goaltenders is deeper than we've ever seen. Like I think when you think back to, let's just go back to the Brodour-Wah, Hachik era, I think the difference between those three and like the average goalie in the NHL was massive because those guys didn't grow up with goalie coaches. They taught themselves. the difference between the haves and have-nots was huge, whereas now I think every goalie in the NHL has been training with a specialized coach since he was five, and they all are so good. I really do think that they've almost de-emphasized themselves because there are so many good

goleys now, like Jakub Dobish is a guy who wasn't really thought of as one of the top 30 goalies in the league. He has been one of the best goalies in the world. And I think you can get that out of so many different guys if all of the environment like works right for them. I think that goaltending stats are heavily, heavily reliant on the team in front of them more than any other position. Like I think you can play on a bad team and score a bunch of goals. You can play on a bad team and still get assists. It's very hard to goaltend behind a horrible team and put up good numbers. Look at Dustin Wolf.

I think Dustin Wolf's been amazing this year. And his stats are terrible. So yeah, I just think it's a combination of the margins being slim. The talent pool of goaltending being as deep as we've ever seen it so that even the 50th or 60th best goal in the world still has the talent to put up huge numbers if things go right in front of him. And then you see obviously the environment changes drastically. And Montreal is playing really good hockey right now. Well, I think the other thing here is the timing, right? And you mentioned like right as this window is opening for Montreal.

Like here comes Jakub Dolbis. Like it looked like they didn't have like a their top prospect was Jacob Fowler. They didn't have a clear answer if it if not for Montembo. to bridge to Jacob Fowler. Well, now it might not be a bridge if Jakub Dobish is legit. He's 24 years old. He had a pretty good, you know, small sample last year at 23 years old, Jesse. And so to me, this is a huge breakthrough for them organizationally because I mentioned

the varying results on my big questions on them coming into the year. Well, Nick Suzuki's answered his end of this. And even though Montembo really hasn't, now you have Dobish coming in. So if you have, you know, these great young forwards and these exciting young D, and now you add not just Fowler a couple years away, but a right now exciting young goalie in Dobish, who I don't want to get ahead of my skis, but what happens if he's this year's Lucas Dostal?

And all of a sudden you have that guy in net. Like, that's a lot of pieces coming together at the exact right time for the Habs. It for sure is. It's exciting. If you're a Habs fan, the goal, like we just talked about how quickly things can change in net, to have a veteran like Montembo,

who has proven year over year over year, he can be a good goalie. And I don't think, like, his stats have been bad this year. I expect him to bounce back. He may not be elite, but he's going to be a solid goalie who you can count on. Now you've got Dobish, Fowler, like you mentioned, super high pedigree prospect, who the ceiling is obviously incredibly high for him. You have to like your chances at one of those three working out.

And like Dobish, say he is, maybe this is a bit of a mirage and he's not quite this good, but he's still good. Well, you combine that with Montembo coming back up to his standard of what you'd expect. it seems like you can count on good goaltending for the HABs this season, whoever it's coming from. Yeah. All right, a couple more teams that we got to get to here before we wrap today. One of them is the Tampa Bay Lightning.

This was a popular preseason Stanley Cup pick, if not to win it, then to make it out of the east. They just don't, again, they don't look right, but in a different way from Dallas, like, they're actually ending up on the losing end of a lot of this. They look slow, don't they? When you watch them play, they just look slow. Like, it's funny how that can, you know, age can kind of creep up on a team.

and then it's just you just fall off a cliff. And that's what I see when I look at the lightning right now is I thought this was going to happen two years ago, but through sheer force of will and good coaching and good management, they've been able to keep their window open longer. But you knew this, this was coming. And I don't feel good about the lightning, about them being able to come back and do something. There's so much talent there. It's a good defensive team and they've got Andre Vasselowski,

so they're going to be competitive. And yes, they can still certainly make the playoffs. But Brandon Hagle has one goal, well, Braden Point has just two. They just don't have that that feel that they've had in recent seasons. I totally agree with you in terms of the team looking slow as a whole. I just watched them last night against the Golden Knights, and they ended up winning two to one. Not a lot happened in that game. It was like the Golden Knights have played thrilling hockey.

Like they have comeback wins in almost every when they've had this season. They have played exciting hockey to watch. And that game against Tampa Bay was the opposite. It was not exciting at all. It was both teams were kind of plotting around, checking well, keeping teams out of of the center of the ice and just not really allowing any dangerous chances. And Tampa Bay has looked slow. And Andre Vasselowski, to me, I think he's looked fine.

But if you're looking for, okay, what is he not doing well? He doesn't look as twitchy and fast as he used to. And I don't know if that's, I think it's a combination of an age thing. But I also think it's, I think he's playing a different style of goaltending. Like he changed his personal goalie coach a couple of seasons back to Adam Francilia, who does amazing work. But Francilia has worked with Connor Hellebuck for basically his whole career. He works with more like mental goalies who kind of read the play. They don't, they're not all over the place, the way Andre Vasselowski is. I think we've seen him change his style to being more of a

positional goalie who is not as active. He's more kind of passive near his goal line. And he's, he's been in great positions. The goals against I've seen from Vasselowski this year is he's great, he's in great position. And then he just isn't making the save. And I don't know if that's his hands aren't as engaged and he's not like just because like when you when you when you kind of turn the dial back on how fast you're playing i wonder if that also like affects your reaction time and now all of a sudden your hands aren't as quick as they used to be your feet aren't as quick as they used to be because your whole body is just sort of slowed down because you're changing the process to be a little bit more passive a little bit more of a blocking style i don't know it's

it's interesting i when i watch him i don't see a goalie who's out of position or who is looking bad on these plays he's doing everything right and then the puck's just missing his glove by a centimeter or whatever each time. It's super interesting. I'm not overly concerned with him, but he hasn't looked at his best for sure. We need to talk about you. Keep going into the metric system here. This is, this is not the Canadian edition of the athletic hockey show, Jesse. What, okay, I just had this discussion the other day. How bad is our system that once it gets smaller than an inch, we have to switch to the other system. What's smaller than an inch? How do I stay in our, I'm going to say an eighth of an inch out here? Come on. Give me something. This is America,

damn it. We've got to have something smaller than an inch so that I don't have to go to centimeters once we go. It's killing me. Nate Bargatz would disagree. We're going to talk about the New York Rangers next year. And this is a team who, you know, similarly, slow start. I think I've been kind of the high guy on the Rangers here. And it's just getting harder to defend. I keep waiting. I keep being like, yeah, it's going to come. I even know, I actually think they've even looked better than they have in past years. And it's just not happening, Las. They're dead last in the conference right now. In the preseason show, knows. We were talking about this. Everyone was picking, I think, 60-something percent of athletic

writers picked the Rangers to make the playoffs. And why? What did they do that makes them better this year than last year other than changing a head coach? Mike Sullivan can't suddenly make Artemi Panera and not be mid-30s and play like one. And J.T. Miller getting a letter on his shirt doesn't fundamentally alter the DNA of this team. They got the best defenseman on the free agent market and they have a reset year with a guy who scored 100 points recently. I don't think they did nothing. They didn't do enough with how bad they were last year. Like, they're, they're shedding talent. They were getting rid of guys because of the way, the way things were going. And, you know, Alexei Lefrenier, he might just be who he thought he was. That

year that he spiked a big number and got a big contract, we're like, up, here it comes. I don't think it's coming. This is what he is. He's a, he's a third line guy. And there's not a lot of young, exciting talents that's ready to step in and rejuvenate this team. This is, other than Igor Shisdurkin, who's played well, but not like out of his, out of his mind well. This is just a mediocre team and mediocre doesn't cut it. Yeah, I actually disagree. I think Igor Shusirkin has played out of his mind well. And that tells you just how bad the Rangers are that they still can't win.

At one point now, he's had like his last two games, he's given up five goals in each. And by the way, the game against Calgary last night, go watch the goals. It's unbelievable. He has basically no chance on any of them. There was one that ball scored from the point. And he scores it. It's a clean shot. I'm like, oh, screen.

Calgary must have had a great net front. No, there's no Calgary player between the faceoff dots. There were three New York Rangers players screening Igor Schisturkin on the play. Calgary didn't even have to, don't even go to the dangerous areas. Don't worry. The Rangers will screen their own goalie four of us. Three of them will screen their own goalie for us. And then on the other end, they're breaking goal scoring droughts set by dudes named Odie Clegghorn from the 1920s.

their inept offensive game is unbelievable how bad they are. Minnesota Wild are the only team scoring less than they are. When you look at and they have talent, like they've got goal scoring talent. I don't understand why the Rangers can't score as well. I really do think Shasturkin has been the best goalie in the NHL this season. When you just look at like watch the film how they're playing, I think Igor Shostirken has been the best goal in the NHL. At one point before these last two blow up games, he had a 957 save percent.

and a losing record. 960 losing record. Those are Paul Scheen's numbers. Jacob de Grom numbers. Yeah, almost impossible to do. But the Rangers have found a way. Las, you went to the metrics well on the Mammoth earlier. Like the Rangers at the fourth best expected goal share in the league.

It's 56%. I just, it's hard to fathom it. And then you take their last two games. LeFrenier's underlying numbers are really good too. He is underperforming his metrics really bad. They had a stretch earlier this year where they held three, playoff teams, the Capitals, Leifes, and Oilers to one, two, and two in three straight games and lost all three. Like, it's just like, it seems like it should be coming and it's just not,

and then they get into now, now is where you get scared, because now you've given up five or six to the flames and the sharks. And these are teams that are bottom feeders. You're basically allowing them to get a little bit of hope going, and that's where you get scared. And to go back to the conversation we were having about how difficult it is to make up ground. This is a team that's going to have to have Igor Shesterkin do it almost all by himself. He's just going to have to go out and pitch like four straight shutouts against division rivals for them to make up the kind of ground they need to make up, you know, by Thanksgiving area. Yeah, it's tough for the Rangers right now.

All right, that is going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. You can subscribe on YouTube at YouTube.com slash at the athletic hockey show to watch full episodes. Frankie Carrado will be between two shons on Wednesday. We'll talk to you soon.