The Athletic Hockey Show - Which NHL teams are most overrated or underrated?

Episode Date: September 23, 2024

Max Bultman and Mark Lazerus dive deep into the projected point totals for the NHL this season and make their choices for which teams are overrated or underrated. Plus, The Athletic’s NHL insider Ch...ris Johnston joins the show to give the latest on contract talks between Jeremy Swayman and the Bruins, the potential for another round of NHL expansion, and more.Hosts: Max Bultman and Mark LazerusWith: Chris JohnstonExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is the Athletic Hockey Show. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus for the Athletic Hockey Show. kicking off the 2024-25 season today with a fun show on tap. We've got our NHL insider Chris Johnston here. We're going to dig in on some of the underrated and overrated teams this season. But first, CJ, I want to just dive right into this. It feels like it with Camps opening, really there's only one big remaining RFA that is not yet signed here. what do you hear it on Jeremy Swayman?
Starting point is 00:00:52 You know, not a whole lot. And I think the danger is, you know, the start of camp is kind of an unofficial deadline. We obviously saw, you know, your guys in Detroit get signed right around the start of camp. In Raymond's case just before, Sider's case just after. But, I mean, there's definitely a push to get something done, generally speaking when you're an RFA at that time. But now when you get on the other side of it, everyone's a little more dug in. And certainly in this case, you know, to see the way Don Sweeney spoke to reporter, in Boston, you know, at the opening of camp there, it's pretty evident that there's a fair
Starting point is 00:01:25 amount of stress here and that this is a negotiation where I think that each side is entrenched in its position. You know, no question that Jeremy Swayman wants to be a Bruin, no question that they value him, but where you find the middle ground in terms of getting a contract, getting that sign, what's going to be the push to make that happen? I mean, obviously, if this goes right through camp, I mean, the start of the season might be a time to do that. But, you know, we're in the point where you're getting closer to a mutually assured destruction where it's hard to argue it's good for either side to have him missing this time. And so, you know, all of that as a way to say, it just doesn't seem as though they've been able to to find, you know, maybe a middle ground.
Starting point is 00:02:05 I know Fluto Shenzawa for us has written a few really, I think, recent stories on this and kind of pointed to maybe a four-year option as being some middle ground where they can maybe, you know, find the deal that's going to get done. But I just don't. doesn't seem like that's at all in the offing as we're recording now. So, um, you know, this can change. I think he's such an important player. But, you know, I will point you to the fact that Don Sweetine mentioned December 1st a couple times when he spoke to reporters, which is a long way from today. But that is the point in which Jeremy Sweman has to be signed to play this season in the NHL. And I, just the fact that that date was brought up a couple
Starting point is 00:02:43 times in that press car. But it just feels like this could be one that that goes on a little bit longer than most of the RFA situations we've seen over the last couple seasons. That's definitely the thing. When he mentioned December 1st, like alarm bells go off throughout the league. Oh, this is serious. This isn't like a, you know, we're haggling over a few hundred thousand dollars here. Do you get the sense that is it either term or Aav that's really the sticking point or is it the whole shebang?
Starting point is 00:03:07 Well, it's the whole package, but it's money, right? I mean, Jeremy Swayman has seized himself in a certain price point among the highest paid goalies in the league. and I think certainly you could look at his results and you could form a case if you're on his side of this negotiation. He's also never even been their number one goalie. That's the wild part about this.
Starting point is 00:03:27 There you go. And that's the other side. And look, there's a bit of business past here that I think can't be pushed aside. As a fact, the team took him to arbitration last summer. You'll recall during the year, just after a random game,
Starting point is 00:03:39 midway through the season, you brought up how difficult that was for him. You know, I think that there's a lot of sort of underlying tension there. We're also dealing with an offseason where the Bruins tradeaway minus Hallmark to Ottawa, right? They trade away as tandem mate. So, you know, he has some leverage, I would argue just in that way. I mean, no disrespect to Junis Corpusalo, Brandon Bussie, the other goalies that they have in camp. But obviously the Bruins in a year where they have pretty high expectations aren't planning to use those goaltenders as anything close to their number one.
Starting point is 00:04:09 And so, you know, I think that right now they're stuck on the fact that he wants to be a paid among the best goals in the league. and they have to find a way either to stomach that themselves. Maybe it's a long-term deal where they make them that or if it ends up being shorter term. I mean, maybe that's why something mid-range makes sense because you get that number down a bit, but obviously reward him for what he's done. And you've got an athlete here who has a lot of self-belief, who, as I mentioned, had that experience last summer. And on top of it is Agent Lewis Gross, obviously has been unafraid to use this with many clients over the years.
Starting point is 00:04:43 you go back to the William Elander situation in Toronto many years ago. Williams, a Lewis Gross candidate or client, but also a number of other players. I mean, clearly this is an agent who doesn't mind negotiating hard in these situations. And when you have a client who believes in himself, that's the recipe, I think, for sometimes an extended negotiation. And that's what we have on our hands, it appears. I do feel like, though, like, you know, as much as it is self-belief, like you say, like, I think at least there's an idea out there that one reason we don't see this. as often in the NHL as we do, maybe in the NFL, is hockey players seem to hate to miss games.
Starting point is 00:05:19 And at the end of the day, if you're going to go that route, you kind of have to have the stomach to say, well, if I miss the game, I miss the game. Do you have a feel for how serious a threat that is for Jeremy Sweman? I think it's real. I mean, I think if you said that he couldn't do that, he doesn't have the stomach for it, it would be at your own peril. It just strikes me as a kind of guy that has that in him. Now, you know, we're recording here still in September.
Starting point is 00:05:42 you know, regular season doesn't get going to October. Like there is lots of time. I don't want to hit too many alarm bells because I do think there's still plenty of time here to find a resolution that doesn't necessarily have to go down that road. But this to me is the kind of player that has that in him. And, you know, that's always a question mark. You're right. I mean, I think Max, you hit the nail on the head is that, you know, it's not easy
Starting point is 00:06:02 to miss games. Like it can't even be easy now for, you know, Cole Perfetti hasn't signed in Winnipeg. I mean, he's also unsigned RFA. But, you know, you see now over the weekend, you got exhibition games. game started. Obviously, your buddies are all back in camp. You know what that's all about. I mean, the season now, you know, we're on a fast track to the season. And you're, you're kind of not on that train, right? You're apart from that experience. You're obviously getting, you know, in the case of Swayman and Perfetti, obviously you're doing whatever you can
Starting point is 00:06:29 to keep your fitness up and be ready. But, you know, it's a bit of a waiting game. And I think that can be tough and isolating for some players. I think that's why you don't see more guys really push it in this circumstance. But, you know, when I look at Jeremy Swindon, payment. Would I look at the way Don Sweeney reacted in front of the media? I think that we, this is a circumstance right now, uh, where definitely there's, there's not, it's not, it's like they're just chipping around the last $10,000 here of a negotiation. I think that there's a pretty wide gap still. And, you know, they have to find a way, a path to a solution. And, you know, who knows? It could take a long time. I mean, that's, we're going to have to take it's almost for,
Starting point is 00:07:08 from our handicapping side of it day by day because, you know, I do think it, could change just because such an important player to the team. This isn't just, this is one random guy on a team. Obviously, the Bruins need him. And so I have to believe they're going to make a push at some point here to get him signed. Well, there's a flip side to that too is what is Boston's stomach to go, you know, without its number one goalie? Considering they traded their number one goalie, they'd be going starting the season with their numbers three and four goalies essentially if they're allowed to go. So it's a game of chicken. It's like who's going to blink first. And, you know, it's like you said, Swamen, it feels like he has a lot of the leverage. He has a lot of the power
Starting point is 00:07:42 here. But it's a risky sake. This is a lot of bad blood that's going to be brewing between these two teams. And maybe it's all water under the bridge once he does sign. And we all assume he will sign eventually. But this is, this is rare in the NHL. Nobody ever wants there any, any conflict in the NHL like this. This is unusual. It is. I mean, I mean, Neelander, I'm trying to remember what year that was, 2017, 2018. He went all the way to December 1st with the Leafs. No one, like, since has been even close. I mean, you've had players miss camp. You've had players even missed some games here and there, but not regular season games, that is. But no one's even been close.
Starting point is 00:08:17 And so you're right. It's, look, it doesn't benefit the player either. Once you get to the regular season, NHL players are paid based on the amount that they're on a roster in the regular season. And so every single day is theoretically money that Jeremy Swayman or any other unsigned RFA would be missing out on. So, you know, there's some financial realities that kick into it. But, you know, it just right now, I just don't get any reason to believe.
Starting point is 00:08:41 leave that this, that a solution is around the corner. And so this, this could be a long one. We're just going to have to buckle up and watch it. I got one last one on this topic. And Laz mentioned trading Allmark. I think that's one piece of big leverage that Swyman has. The other is he knows exactly how much money Boston has left at this stage, right? He's their only unsigned player. You can, you can go on, you know, puckpedia like the rest of us and see that the Bruins have $8.5 million. How tough is it from the Bruins side of this to negotiate with a player who knows exactly what you can spend and there's no ambiguity there. And it seems like to me like he'd just be able to say, well, you have that much, give me that
Starting point is 00:09:17 much. It seems like a disadvantage for the Bruins. You know, to some degree, yes. I mean, he doesn't have all the info he wants. I think he'd love to know what Igor Shisterkin's next contract's going to be. He's entering his final year under contract to the New York Rangers. And, you know, I would expect at some point in time, whenever he signed his next deal, it's going to potentially be, you know, one that lifts the bar for goaltenders. certainly would be, I think it'll be very close to the 10.5 million that Cary Price, you know, had in Montreal prior to injury entering his career here.
Starting point is 00:09:45 But, you know, certainly he doesn't have everything he would want, but you're right. Like, you can always say that. And that's, it's not easy. And I think that, you know, Boston over time, you know, Pastor Neck missed a little bit of camp when he did his second deal a long time ago now. Charlie McAvoy missed a few days of camp. I mean, this has happened before. I think that they've tried to have the second conchernic.
Starting point is 00:10:07 contract and other teams have done this too. I think Tampa under Steve Eisenman, you know, the lightning were really good, you know, if you look back, Nikita Kuturov and some of those players signed sort of lower cap hits on their second deal and then they have sort of their home run contracts in the third deal. I'm sure ideally that's what Boston's trying to pitch here is, okay, keep your, you know, we're going to give you a raise, but but only to a certain degree. And then you keep proving it as last points out. You become a number one where you've done that for us year in, year out for a couple seasons and we'll happily make you among the best big goalies in the league. But, you know, it doesn't always go on that time frame. And this is,
Starting point is 00:10:40 you know, maybe this is just something that's been in the back of my mind, but this is the first time for this era player, the cap's gone up, right? Like this is two years in a row where we've seen a jump, you know, after the sort of pandemic halt on the cap. And I wonder if, you know, there's going to be more money out there in the system. And if it's going to lead to maybe some players drawing a little harder line in the sand, because we're not in kind of, it was sort of like an austerity moment in the NHL in a sense if you came through those pandemic years. Certainly a lot of teams didn't have the money that didn't have cap space. I think it was legitimate.
Starting point is 00:11:09 It wasn't going up. There was a real squeeze on the system. Now it's starting to loosen a little bit. And I just think younger players, players that are proving themselves, are going to try to keep moving the bar up because we've already seen Leon Dryslide will get to $14 million now for skaters. I think we're going to see more and more players now push up, you know, the top paid, you know, I guess marks in the league because there's actually finally some money to spend. It's a great point. I wonder if this is actually a bad time to be looking for a new contract, for a long-term contract, because the expectation is the cap is going to go up considerably the next few years, almost like a course correction from those flat cap years from now. If you sign a 2024 for $7 million, that could have been $10 million three years from now. So we talk about this every year. I've talked to every player in the league about it, I feel like, in the last decade. Why don't you do what the NBA guys do and sign one or two-year deals and maximize your value? And just nobody seems to want it. it. Nobody seems to have, like we were saying before, the stomach for it. It's just not in their nature.
Starting point is 00:12:10 But if ever there were a time to take a short-term deal, this would be it because new TV contracts are coming in a couple of years. And the expectation is that cap is going to soar in the upcoming years. Plus, there's the unknown of a new CBA, right? The current CBA expires in 2026 in the fall. And, you know, I think that'll be an interesting, you know, now we're getting a little head of ourselves. But Carda McDavid can sign his extension as of next summer, which is summer 2025, of course. you know, how does he approach that? It's not just, this isn't a question where I'm raising, you know, does he stay in Edmonton? It's more does he want to sign an eight-year deal not knowing what the CBA might include?
Starting point is 00:12:45 You know, in other sports, there's things like franchise tags. I'm not saying that that's likely in the NHL, but you just don't know. Is that kind of thing going to come around? Is the cap going up 5%, 5%, 5%, 5% every year? I mean, are you almost taking on too much risk by signing a long-term deal? You know, I get why hockey players ultimately do it. let's face it, they're playing preseason games right now that don't matter. You can be doing nothing wrong and suffer a very significant injury in one of those games.
Starting point is 00:13:11 And obviously any game in the regular season and the playoffs, it was the same sort of thing. So if you can get $112 million locked in like Leon Drysidl did it, that's a pretty good bet. I mean, I don't think he's likely to regret it. He might end up outperforming it. You outperformed his last eight-year deal, right? That's part of how he got here. Yeah, we should not weep for Leon Drysidlidal, no. Right.
Starting point is 00:13:29 But I guess when you have that kind of money on the table, you just take it. but your points well made. I mean, honestly, if some of the top players in league just did one and two year deals, we might start to see what the top players are played, you know, keep going up and up and up. The other thing I wanted to get your opinion on, CJ, is over the weekend, you start to get a little bit of this. Maybe it's just like kind of right on schedule.
Starting point is 00:13:50 We get a little bit of this every year, but a little bit of expansion chatter going on. And you mentioned the CBA a second ago. I've always kind of wondered, is that something the NHL would want to do before the next CBA, just in case the way that those expansion fees gets distributed would come under issue or whatever. But the more to the point question is, do you buy this expansion chatter? Is that a legit thing? Because our content machine might not mind
Starting point is 00:14:13 it. Well, it's definitely a legit thing in that the league has so many expressions of interest. I think, you know, you and I, and last, we might have our individual views. Maybe it's too much or whatever. But I just think there's too much money to be made from the NHL standpoint to think it's not going to happen. You know, I've gotten a little pushback from people that are closer to this than us about the timeline here. I mean, there's another Board of Governors' owners meeting on October 1st scheduled. You know, I don't, I'm not expecting any announcement soon,
Starting point is 00:14:41 although I'll be quite candid. You know, when Vegas got announced that they were doing a season ticket drive to bring a team there, that did come a little bit out of the clear blue sky. It wasn't a story that that reporters were on at that moment in time. So I guess there's always room for surprise. But, you know, the biggest issue to me is, do you have buildings you want to go to? Like, it's all well and good to say Atlanta looks like a very appealing market. I'm sure it does.
Starting point is 00:15:03 But there's two groups right now. They're currently trying to get arenas. Neither of them has the approvals. Neither of them has anything close to a shovel on the ground. You know, Houston is always mentioned, you know, obviously, at least in that case, they do have an NBA arena. I think that the league will end up some way, shape, or form back in Arizona. It might take a long time.
Starting point is 00:15:22 But, you know, there's no arena there. That was part of the main problem they had with the coyotes for all this time, you know, at least a suitable rank in the right place where their fans can be serviced. And so, you know, for the expressions of interest for the fact that I do think it's kind of a matter of when, not if, that we're going to see the league go to at least 34 teams, I'm just not sure that those markets are all ready and lined up and, you know, that this is something that we're going to see happen in the next year or two. It just my my feeling is for sure it's going to happen. And, you know, even when you've seen, you know, Bill Daley or Gary Bettman quoted on the subject, like they're, they're not pretending it isn't a consideration or a discussion point. I just, I don't think that they're quite there where it makes sense. So, you know, I know there was some talk in the last week or so that maybe this is imminent.
Starting point is 00:16:06 You know, I'll always leave open the possibility. Someone's lying to me, but I don't think I'm being lied to. I think I think it's still a little ways off, but certainly if you're a fan in those markets and if you are trying to have a team, they're definitely going to be available. I just think it's going to take a little bit more time than the next year or so. It feels like 36 teams is imminent. And man, I don't know if there's another 85 to 90 NHL caliber players. out there right now. We see, I mean, players are better than they've ever been.
Starting point is 00:16:32 The sport is more global than it's ever been. But there's already guys on the fringe of some of these rosters that probably don't really belong in the NHL. And I always worry about watering down the product to the point where it's just, it's a bad product. And we go back to like the 1980s where fourth liners are guys that play four or five minutes at night. I don't want to see that again.
Starting point is 00:16:51 So I'm, but the NFL is always going to chase the money. There's always, it's such a windfall, it's such an easy windfall, instant cash. It's like an ATM for them. It's hard to imagine they don't eventually get to 36. Well, and the money spread around, you know, all the existing owners. So that makes everyone who's already in the club feel good. You know, the NHL Players Association gets new membership. You know, there's more jobs for players.
Starting point is 00:17:13 I mean, there's almost nobody dissenting here. I mean, it would be probably some of us in the media, maybe some fans who raise the points you're making last. But in general, there's not really a lot of headwind against it. And I think the league looks at specifically Seattle and Vegas. And, you know, those are two of the higher. earning teams pretty quickly into their cycles as teams. So, you know, there's just not a lot that that's that's giving you that info you shouldn't do it. But I, you know, I'm an old guy, man. I've
Starting point is 00:17:38 earned these grays in my beard. Like, like part of me does wonder. Like I do remember the 21 team NHL. And so if we're talking about getting to 36 teams or beyond, I mean, it's almost, it's just almost hard to wrap your brain around. But, you know, I saw the point that Bill Daley made, you know, our colleague Mike Russo was down at the, the media tour at the start of the month. And, And, you know, he just pointed out that having a couple teams in L.A. area, having three teams in the, you know, greater New York area, that there's a lot of markets. The NHL doesn't cover it. And obviously the number of franchises up in Canada, there's just a lot of U.S. markets, frankly, that they don't have representation and that they feel they should. And so I'm with you. I think it's inevitable. But my guts tell me to just say, hey, let's just tap the brakes a little bit.
Starting point is 00:18:20 It might take, you know, a little longer than what some out there are suggesting. All right, Cedger. So our main topic for the show today is going to be. underrated and overrated teams. We're going to do it off of some Vegas lines here, which I don't need you to necessarily do, but I would love to get a sleeper team from you and maybe an overrated team or a playoff team that you see kind of dropping out of it this time around
Starting point is 00:18:39 if you have one for us. You know, I just find out. Like who's a sleeper team? Like if I say New Jersey, would you say that's a sleeper team? Like, no, that's the cop-out. I almost feel like they're an overrated team. Like, everyone's just assuming they're going to be back
Starting point is 00:18:50 in the 100-point range. Well, I do. But like, so that's why I don't know what classifies each thing. I mean, for teams that made the playoffs last year, I guess I can focus in on that. You know, I wonder about L.A. getting back there. I could see some drop off, you know, with some of the players they've lost. Obviously, they signed Joel Edmondson do a big deal. But just you wonder, it's such a weird division, though.
Starting point is 00:19:13 Like, that might be the weakest division, frankly, in the league. So, you know, maybe that's not a good one for me to pull out. I'm curious what to see of Carolina. I'm certainly not going to sit here and say that I see them missing the playoffs because they've been such a top-end performer. but, you know, it's hard to ignore the players that they've lost off of their roster. But, man, it's hard for me to, like, who counts as a sleeper? Like, throw out your sleepers and maybe I'll get my brain going. But, I mean, who's under the radar?
Starting point is 00:19:39 Ours are off of MGM lines. So, like, one of the ones I picked, you're going to laugh at because you're like, they're so good, but their line is so low. Like Dallas, they have Dallas, like, down from last year by, like, five or, I think maybe even 10 points, nine and a half below where Dallas finished last year, I'm all over that. Well, if New Jersey doesn't count as a sleeper, You can't get out.
Starting point is 00:19:56 I know, that's what I mean. Come on. Montreal is my other one. That's not to spoil the entire show here right off the hop. I think Montreal could be a lot of people. It is tough, though, because there's so little movement it feels like, you know, the playoff teams are the playoff teams. And then the rest of the field is the rest of the field.
Starting point is 00:20:11 And maybe one or two teams will swap in and out most years. Like how many years have we been saying, look out for Detroit and Ottawa and Buffalo? And then it never happens. There's just so much inertia in those playoff teams that it is, it is tough to find a truly legitimate out of nowhere sleeper. Yeah, I'm an NFL fan. I'm watching the first couple weeks of the season,
Starting point is 00:20:31 and there's just what I would call crazy results. And obviously, every game in a 17-game regular season matters so much. I feel like we don't get as many out-of-nowhere teams that make the playoffs. I don't know about a sleeper, but we can put the Dallas Cowboys to sleep already, can't we? No. Too soon. I made a game of that. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:20:51 Their defense is concerning me, but no one wants to be bored with my anguish over the Cowboys. You got to get you and Pierre on for like a group therapy session. Oh, we're, we didn't even like text on the game on Sunday. We're just like, we both know what we're going through. It's just like a shared misery situation.
Starting point is 00:21:06 But, you know, I just feel like we don't get that as often. Actually, maybe New Jersey of two seasons ago was as close to. Like, I don't think anyone was really hyping then up. And then they obviously had a strong season that they won around in the first round.
Starting point is 00:21:19 Who could do that now? Who's going to come out of nowhere? Like, Utah. Utah. Utah. Like, I thought it would be Arizona last year, so I'm kind of clinging to Utah this year. I could talk myself into it with Utah a little bit.
Starting point is 00:21:32 I mean, I certainly, I like their offseason and I like what they've been building. Like as much as for all the off ice noise in Arizona, I think that the coyotes, you know, took a very particular path, like probably more aggressive than anything I can remember in terms of massing draft picks, you know, obviously making those picks. They took some swings with their trades now in the off season, which I think was always the plan, is that, you know, they weren't thinking that they need more prospects than they went in hockey. They want to use those prospects to turn them into players. So, you know, the excitement of being in a new place, that seems real in Utah. So maybe I'll take the Utah HCs, soon to be
Starting point is 00:22:06 Yetis. Just coming in and undercutting the entire premise of the show before we even get to it. Just classy, classy work right there. Sorry, guys. I'm with you on the Yetis, by the way. So I will, I'll co-sign your petition there. CJ, thanks for coming on with this, man. This was great. And I will talk to you again soon. All right. Thanks, guys. All right, we are back. And, as last, like I said, at the top, we're going to talk a lot about overrated and underrated teams here today. And we're going to do this just to kind of define, because that was the problem that C.J. Rays is who, what is everyone rated? So we're going to kind of tap in with the bet MGM public lines here. So we're going to say teams that we think are underrated or overrated relative to their
Starting point is 00:22:48 betmgm line, not necessarily about betting here. It's just kind of to get a feel for the public perception. I feel like I should have a disclaimer where no matter anything I ever say in the history of this show, you should not take his gambling advice because I'm a moron. That's my, that's my, please don't sue me, uh, premise right there. That's right. But all these lines are going to be presented by our partners at BetMGM here. So we'll start kind of last, I'll start with you here. Because I guess I think we need to point out like, like this is a fool's errand, right? I mean, this is a ridiculous, like, who would let even, even like, you know, we, we were just talking with CJ about how everything seems so predictable.
Starting point is 00:23:24 But at the same time, there's always some chaos. Like last year, you look at the standings from last year. At the beginning of the year, who had the flyers with 87 points in contending? Who had Winnipeg at 110? Vancouver at 109. And then who had New Jersey at only 81? Who had the cracking? They were coming off.
Starting point is 00:23:41 They beat the avalanche in the first round. They come out and have an 81 point season. Buffalo at 84, Ottawa at 78. Those were preseason darlings. So, you know, when we look back in April at what we said here today, we might very well look like idiots because there's, there's injuries, there's a goalie that comes out in nowhere. There's a million things that can change over the course of an NHL season. There are, but that's why they pay you the big box, Lazarus. So give me your two underrated teams, relatively speaking.
Starting point is 00:24:12 Your two underrated, top two underrated teams here based on the BEDMGM lines. I mean, I start with the Rangers. Like the New York Rangers on these are 100.5 points. This is the defending president's trophy. They've had three straight seasons above 107. They have probably the best goalie in the world in Igor Shestirkin. Where is this huge drop-off coming from? Like, this is the best team in the league, in theory, the best regular season team in the league.
Starting point is 00:24:40 100.5, that's like a bottom half of the playoffs team. I don't understand where that's coming from at all. the only thing I can think of is that it's based on some aging stuff, right? Zabanajad is another year older. Cryder's another year older. Panarin's another year older. And yet I'm with you because Lefren years another year more experienced. Kako, I don't think it can possibly have his rocky of a year as last year.
Starting point is 00:25:01 If you saw Mika Zabatajad in the playoffs last year, you're not worrying about his age. I mean, he looked fantastic. No, and Trocheck was like more than made up for it by how good he was last year. So I'm with you. I really like the Rangers. Maybe I guess you can say, does the Truba drama of the offseason seep in there? But it just seems like they check every box.
Starting point is 00:25:21 The thing is, Truba's not even like one of their top three or four defensemen. He's not that big. He's the captain, but he's not that big of an on-ice player for them. Like, he's been declining for a while now, and they've been just fine. And most importantly,
Starting point is 00:25:35 they still have maybe the best goalie in the sport here, right? In any given year, I feel like it can be one of five guys, six guys at this point. He's one of them. And he's often one of them. them, especially in the playoffs. So I guess the playoffs don't affect the point total,
Starting point is 00:25:49 but I'm with you on the Rangers. Give me your next one. Oh, man. This is, CJ's not wrong. It's tough to find it, but Florida, 102.5 points.
Starting point is 00:25:59 How much of a Stanley Cup hangover are we talking about there? Like, this is still a phenomenal team that brings back pretty much, you know, not completely intact, but where, why would the floor, unless they're just going to do like what the Chicago Blackhawks did
Starting point is 00:26:13 later in their, you know, years of dominance where they just stopped caring about the regular season because they realized it didn't matter, that seating didn't matter, home ice didn't matter, they were just better than everybody else and they knew it. Unless Florida adopts that attitude and just goes into absolute cruise control because they know they can. 100, 2 point, they're going to be 110 point team, easy again. So Vegas, two years ago was 111. They win the Stanley Cup. The next year, last year, they dropped down to 98. So it does happen. I don't think Vegas lost a ton of guys either. I think
Starting point is 00:26:44 what they're tapping into there is, is there a loss of that, like, urgency because they've done it and, you know, it's a shorter summer. Sometimes guys are still have some physical wear and tear with that. If I had to guess, that's what that is with Florida. You know, my experience talking to players who have won the Stanley Cup is that, I mean, it's certainly that desperation and that drive to win is a motivating force for that first cup. But there's also the, oh my God, that was so amazing and fun and awesome and I want to do it again. That is a really good driving force. It's It's not like you get one and you're just like, I'm good. Like, these guys get a taste of what it is to actually win the Stanley Cup
Starting point is 00:27:19 and not end their season with bitterness in their mouths. And, man, that is a driving force. So, yes, certainly they've played in a ridiculous amount of playoff hockey the last couple of years. And that's going to catch up to them eventually. But I'm not quite so sure that's going to happen this regular season just yet. Also lose Brandon Montour, so it's not a totally intact team, big piece. But I think those are both very good picks. And again, here.
Starting point is 00:27:43 I know I said sleeper to CJ. We're well aware that the Rangers and the Panthers are not sleeper teams here. So we're going to go with underrated. You don't sleep on the New York Rangers, back. You may come out of nowhere. We're going to go with underrated here. Let's get to mine here. I teased them.
Starting point is 00:27:57 Dallas, another similar deal here, right? The Dallas stars are really good. And that's why it shocks me to see their point total at 103.5. That's a considerable drop back from where they were last year. Nine and a half points lower than they were last year. I actually think they're going to be better than they were last year. year. I think you look at their roster and yes, Tyler Sagan's a year older. Yes, Jamie Ben's a year older. Wyatt Johnson's just getting into his prime here, though. They're
Starting point is 00:28:22 going to have a full season of Logan Stank event. We think Maverick Bork probably makes this team. They have another one of those five or six goalies who on any given year can be the best goalie in the league in Jake Onger. Coming off a rough year, though, Ottinger did not look like the Jake Ottinger we expected it looked like last year. If there's an X factor, it's that. If we know anything about goalies, that just means he's going to win the Vezina. So we don't. We don't know anything about goalies. You're exactly right. Yeah, that's right. So I'm in on the Dallas stars. And I think Thomas Harley, you know, what they say about defensemen, you need 200 games. He's getting closer to that total there where I think he's going to be a nightly weapon. So I don't
Starting point is 00:28:58 have Dallas dropping by 10 points. Come on. No, that's crazy. Dallas to me is still, you know, I thought they were going to cruise to the Stanley Cup last year, frankly. But to me, that is still the best put together team in the league. They are just, they're deep, they're talented. there's the mix of the veterans and the youth, they've got the goalie. That's the best, the Jim Nill has constructed the best looking team on paper to me in the league for a few years now. I did want to make sure we had one actually sleeper team in here, though. So I did pick one. Chicago Blackhawks, no.
Starting point is 00:29:29 No, but I think they're interesting. I actually do kind of want to talk about them. So let's put a pin in that. But I think the Montreal Canadians as being considerably better than the 77 and a half that they're at. I think that they're into like the low 80s, maybe mid-80s this year. I think they've done quite a bit, actually, to close the gap on that kind of trio that you mentioned, the Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit. You bring back Kirby Doc as long as he can stay healthy. I get that that's a question mark.
Starting point is 00:29:53 You bring in Patrick Lining, I get that there's question marks there. But they're another team that a young team, all their guys kind of getting into their prime. Slavkovsky should only be better. Suzuki and Caulfield, I don't see them taking any kind of step back here. You bring in Lane Hudson, who could be one of the more dynamic rookies in the league, again, potentially. So there's question marks. But I don't really see why they can't be an 80-point team. And I think there's room for them to be five, six points better than that.
Starting point is 00:30:17 Well, it's where do these points come from, right? It's a zero-sum game. Well, it's not a zero-sum game because of the loser point, but it's essentially a zero-sum game where you have to, for one team to kind of like make a significant move up, another team's kind of have to make a significant move down or everybody's got to come down a little bit. And I still feel like the best teams in general,
Starting point is 00:30:38 generally speaking, are in the West. But the East has a much deeper rock. of teams that can contend right now. And the question is, you know, where are these points going to come from? Who is it that Montreal is going to be able to beat up on? And there's not a lot of teams for them to do that in the East other than, you know, Columbus maybe. And, you know, Montreal is one of the teams that the playoff teams are looking to
Starting point is 00:31:01 where it's like, oh, we've got to stockpile points against them. So it's got to come from somewhere. I agree they should be better. They should be more competitive. But it's kind of the same thing with the Blackhawks, if you want to get into that, is, you know, those points have to come out of someone else. And you look around and there's not a lot of options for that. Yeah, I guess I just see them being like a little more able to pull points off of some of their
Starting point is 00:31:20 division rivals here this year. And they actually did okay against like the Buffaloes of the world last year. But I think they got, you know, better enough that they should be able to pick off, you know, two, three points from a bunch of their divisional opponents and call them together. And I guess the question is goaltending. That really is what it comes down to is can San Montembow be like a 905, 906 goalie for work will that he's going to have to be. And that's a very valid question. But let's go to the Blackhawks because they are a team that Ben G.M has making quite the jump, still not into, you know,
Starting point is 00:31:51 Chicago Blackhawks, the third, I think, oldest team in the league, would anybody have expected that a year ago? No, but, but, and they still got them as the third lowest, you know, over underline in the league at 73 and a half, but that's still 21 and a half above where they finished last season. They were really bad last year. Eleven wins. That's like 11 wins. That's like 11 wins. I don't think we should underrate an 11-win jump in the NHL. No, and I think that's a reasonable expectation. I mean, you look at the lineup and you add, you know, Tyler Birtuzi and Tevo-Terra Vinen in a healthy Taylor Hall
Starting point is 00:32:21 and a healthy Andreas Athanasi, you, all of a sudden you have a top nine. There's actual talent there. You know, Jason Dickinson was a revelation as a second-line center last year, but he could be your third-line center now, which is probably a better fit for him, and he could focus on being a shutdown guy. If a young guy like Frank Nazar can step into that two C-SP, spot, that's all the more exciting for fans, but we're all, you know, obviously dying to see what
Starting point is 00:32:44 Connor Bedard can do with real line mates. He made Phil Kyrushav into like a viable top liner last year. What's you going to do with, you know, Taylor Hall and Tyler Bertuzi or if Tara Vining gets moved to that line, like 40, 50 goals? Like he's going to immediately become one of those, you know, elite, elite players. But yeah, that's the thing. They could win 11, 15 more games than last year and still miss the playoffs by 20 points. Like, that's just how bad things were last year. Is Lucas Reichael ready to take the next step for you, just on the subject of the Blackhawks? He's my guy. Like, if we want to get really, he's, I've had a lot of fans asking me about because he's coming off just a truly abysmal sophomore year.
Starting point is 00:33:20 I think he's going to have a big bounce back here. He's too good. He's too talented. He's too fast. He's too creative. He's a confidence guy. And if his confidence is rolling like it was when he first came up, like the sky's the limit. But if he gets in his own head like he did last year, it snowballs in the wrong direction.
Starting point is 00:33:37 And now that, you know, he can't be sent back. to Rockford because he's no longer waiver exempt. I feel that's going to help. And he's going to have to play in a top six role because why would you put him in a bottom six role? So he's going to be playing with real hockey players this year. Like, Bardard, Reichel, all these guys are going to benefit from playing with actual viable NHL players this year.
Starting point is 00:33:55 And I do think he has a big bounce back here. Yeah, I am a believer that the sophomore slump is real, that like, you know, you kind of get into the NHL enough to know how hard the NHL is and it hits you a little bit and then you can rebound. And you just run out of gas, right? because like adrenaline carries you through so much of that rookie stint. And then it's like, oh, my God, this is my life now. And it kind of weighs on you.
Starting point is 00:34:16 Like it's daunting to realize just how much work goes into a season. All right. So those are our underrated teams. We're going to take a quick break right here. And we'll be back with our overrated teams for the 2024 or 25 season. All right, lad. Let's get the people what they came for. Nobody wants to hear what we thinks better than everyone thinks.
Starting point is 00:34:35 Everyone wants to know who's overrated. Give me your two overrated teams this year. All right. I want to say the New Jersey Devils, just because, like, I know, are they, it's a huge jump they have to make it. But two years ago, they made the biggest jump in NHL history. So I don't want to write them off. I love the team they have there, but is Dougie Hamilton and Jacob Markstrom enough to make that big of a difference? I'm not convinced, but I'm not going to, I'm not going to go with them.
Starting point is 00:35:02 I want to go a little bit more kind of subtle. The Minnesota Wild, the poor, Godforsaken Minnesota Wild. talking mediocrity for the entirety of their franchise, basically. They're at 95.5 points. What? This is an 87 point team last year. Are they any better? Who's the number one center?
Starting point is 00:35:24 I mean, maybe next year they can finally get one when the dead money from Parisei and Souter comes off the books at last. But like, who looks at this team and says, this is, yeah, this is a playoff team in a division that has the avalanche, the jets, the resurgent predators, and the Dallas stars. Like, where are the Minnesota Wild getting 95 and a half points from? I think the argument would be if you can get Spurgeon back, that makes a really big difference.
Starting point is 00:35:52 Like, he only played 16 games last season. In addition to being really good, just he's a really good player. He is also their captain. And I think that that does have a little bit of an effect on how a team weather is the storm here. But I'm kind of with you. I look at this team and I see a hard path to 96 points for them. It's entirely possible that that's the second worst team in the division. I'm not very high on St. Louis this year, although they made some nice moves with the offer
Starting point is 00:36:16 sheets and all that. But, like, you know, we, I think U.I and CJ, we all agreed that Utah is poised to make a big step this year. Yeah. So there, to me, Utah is that clear fifth team in the division. And then, you know, St. Louis, Chicago, Minnesota, I mean, yeah, Chicago is probably the worst of that bunch, but they're a lot more competitive than they were. I just don't know where the wild find these points.
Starting point is 00:36:38 just seems wildly unlikely to me. See what I did there? And yes. And to the point, you know, we made on Montreal with Montembourg, right? Like Philip Gustafson was there, you know, let him in starts last year at a sub-900 save percentage. If you're hoping that a rookie goalie, like Yasser Walsditt comes in here, like, okay, I guess that's your hope. You're not pinning your hopes on being a playoff team on a rookie goaltender in the NHL. You are probably still riding Gustafson for the majority of those starts. And there just isn't that consistency. If you get to the point where Wollstead's in there, it's because things have gone so bad that the hill to climb is probably already insurmountable.
Starting point is 00:37:12 Would you be worried about Caprizov leaving at this point for them? Absolutely. I'd be worried about that. I was at the draft and I put this in a story and I heard from so many people, people that are affiliated with teams and people that aren't that Carrillo Caprisov wants to come to Chicago next year. And wouldn't that be something? I mean, oh my God, you put him on a wing with Bedard.
Starting point is 00:37:33 That'd be incredible. Now, take it with a grain of salt. This was a year and a half, two years out. A lot can change between now and then. But, you know, if he wants to win, I love Minnesota. Like, it's the best fan base in the league, certainly the best state side fan base in the league to me. It's the best arena in the league.
Starting point is 00:37:50 I love everything about the Minnesota Wild, except for the fact that they're just stuck. And they've been mediocre. They're never awful, but they're never really all that good. And if you are, you know, Caprizo's, what, late 20s by this point? I mean, he wasn't like an 18-year-old when he came over. You look around. not think that this is the place for you, that there might be a better path to a championship
Starting point is 00:38:10 somewhere else. And if I'm a wild fan, I am deeply concerned about Carilla-Cabrisos feature because he's phenomenal. And he's the first, like, truly exciting talent you've had really to hang your hat on. And until he signs, and he still very well might re-sign, I mean, this is the NHL. Guys tend to stay. I'd be deeply concerned about that. It's a big year for them, partly because it's the last year of the Souter Parise, like the big number for them. The buyouts are obviously going to go for for a few years here yet. But it'll be under a million each at that point. Right now you're still close to 15 million tied up in those two guys who you're not having in your lineup. Yeah, you can't compete like that.
Starting point is 00:38:49 They're just so hamstrung. But if they can stay close enough, right? If they can stay at 90, if they can get close to that 95 and a half here, and you open up that cap space, then I think it's easy enough to lure some guys in and play there, as you say, like maybe the best American fan base. It's a desirable place to play. People want to go where people care about hockey. And nobody cares about hockey as much as Minnesota fans do. They deserve so much more than they've gotten it. I really do hope they get it. Yeah, big year for them. All right, that's one. Give me another overrated team. How about your Detroit Red Wings? God, the Izer plan in its 467th consecutive year with absolutely nothing to show for it. They're spending money. They're signing all the guys that
Starting point is 00:39:33 they've built up and they've built up some good talent there. No question about it. But what's different enough for me to expect that they're going to be, they're listed at 90.5? Yeah. It's not unreasonable, but I did it last year. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:39:49 What's, what's pushing Detroit to that next step? You tell me, you know, we got into Lucas Reichael's third year and on the black, I was looking into the nitty gritty of the Detroit Red Wings here. What about the Detroit Red Wings gives you confidence? And maybe they don't at all. that they can finally take that next step. Yeah, well, first of all, I'll say this. I don't have them getting 90.5.
Starting point is 00:40:11 I haven't taken a slight step back from where they were last year at 91. I have them in 87, 88, 89 territory, right? So that's close to this line, but I would have them under it. I was going to write you a sales pitch for how they get over it, though. It would go something like this. Patrick Kane had a full off season of training this year as opposed to joining mid-year off of hip surgery. I think that's real.
Starting point is 00:40:31 Excellent. I get him back. Excellent. And he looked very good in training camp. I was a little skeptical of the idea that at his age, like a summer of training makes a big difference. But I did think he looked a little bit quicker, a little bit crisper. Number two is they brought in Cam Talbot. That goalie room last year was interesting.
Starting point is 00:40:46 I'm not saying Cam Talbot's some huge savior, but if you look at his career, he's really consistently like a nine-ten... But it all start twice in the last, what, three years? Yeah. And even at his age, like he's turning in good numbers, 9-11 last year. Detroit's defense is not going to be as good as L.A.'s. but he's kind of been environment-proof in that way in his career. The only team that he's ever played for where his, you know, save percentage on his team was below like 908 was Ottawa in 22, 32, 23.
Starting point is 00:41:13 Is he a clear-cut number one there? Because you've got four NHL goalies in that room. And if you have four goalies, you have no goals. Jack Campbell, I think, is going to be in the HL. And I think, you know, if they need him, obviously, it's great to have them, you know, there he's got an NHL experience. But I think it's a three-goly room with Talbot, who's so in line. And I don't know who the clear cut starter is.
Starting point is 00:41:33 I'd handicap it as Talbot just because of the track record. I think you know what you're getting there. Huso's got plenty of upside, but he was not healthy at all last year and not actually even that good when he was in the net. And then Alex Lyon actually had some outstanding stretches for them last year. I just don't think he has the like track record of that workload. You definitely saw fatigue in him. And I just so I don't see him being like the number one.
Starting point is 00:41:55 Alex Lyon, the Florida Panthers savior from two years ago. This guy's done some things in the NHL. He was on his way. doing something like that last year. He had a stretch where he was at like a 9-25 over like more than a month of games. Like it was legit. But then at the overwork hit. But he can be that guy for you for a stretch. It's just he can't be that for you, at least in my opinion, yet over a season. So the goaltending will be one part of it. But really what they're banking on Las is internal improvement here. And everyone's biggest critique of Steve Iserman at this point is that he's made all these high picks
Starting point is 00:42:28 and they're not in the NHL yet. I think a lot of them are going to get there at some point this year, right? You're going to get a full year of Simon Edvinson. I do think he improves their blue line. I think at some point this year, you're going to see at least one, if not two of the top 10 pick centers they've had in the last few years, Marco Casper and Nate Danielson. How many games is that for?
Starting point is 00:42:45 I don't know. It might not even be like 25 or 30. But I do think both of them have had good camps here, and I think you'll see both of them. And they're just banking on continued internal improvement from guys like Cider, guys like Raymond, who really popped on the, stretch last year. So that's what they'll tell you. And I think if you're making a sales pitch, it's basically those three things. Maybe they get a little better defensively through guys like
Starting point is 00:43:06 Tyler Mott coming in and replacing a sprong. It's a goals tradeoff for sure. But I think Tyler Mott's one of the better, you know, PKers in the NHL. And at him there, they were a bad defensive team last year. So I'm actually with you on the under here. But that's what I would tell you if you wanted a reason to think, you know, why is that line even there? What has to happen for Steve Eisenman to legitimately be on a hot seat? How bad would things have to get? Well, we're years away from it. It's almost not even worth like.
Starting point is 00:43:34 I know everyone wants that moment to be here sooner. I don't know, you know, I think everyone just wants a Canada-fied version of the hot seat here in the U.S. But it's years away. Like the situation that they came into was always going to be a long rebuild. And I know that people want results. It's totally understandable. That's the world we live. live in, but they're going to give him until his draft picks have gotten to the NHL and,
Starting point is 00:43:58 you know, seeing one way or another what works and proven that it doesn't, right? And if it doesn't at that point, then that's when you start talking about it. But we're two or three years away from being able to have that conversation about a lot of these picks. So I know people are ready to have it in the media, but Detroit is not ready to have it. No other GM in any other situation. No, I get that. I get that for sure. Kyle Davidson has an almost endlessly, it feels like with management, they trust him, and he's got this long term and, you know, he's got this, but you can see that coming up to an end at some point. It's hard to imagine with Eisenman. So who's your two overrated teams? Who do you got? Well, I'll put it this way to you just real quick, is that,
Starting point is 00:44:34 you know, if they miss the playoffs this year, you'll start to get a little segment of the fan base that bubbles, right? But it won't be a full hot seat. And then if it happens again, then you're going to have the hot seat. That's three years away. The fans are not, they're still fully bought in on him? There's a split. There's people who are seeing the, you know, the way this is going, and wondering, is this actually trans? Because that is the big question, really, is like, is what they're assembling here enough to actually win a Stanley Cup? Like, I think most people think they'll get back in the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:45:03 Right. They're a competitive team, but are they building a contender? Right. And I think there's enough of the fan base that is lost faith in that. That's starting to bubble and they're starting to go, what the heck. But I think the majority of the fans are still willing to kind of write. And that's for what it's worth, that's why you, that's why you hire like the franchise icon. He gets a level of faith from the fan base that nobody else gets.
Starting point is 00:45:26 And that's, I saw it here, you know, in Ann Arbor, Jim Harbaugh, like a bunch of people were ready to fire him for a while, but it still lasted longer than it would have for anyone else, and they still kept him when they probably wouldn't have kept anyone else, and he wouldn't want a national championship with him. I'm not predicting that for the Red Wings, but that's one advantage of hiring the franchise icon. The disadvantage is if it doesn't work, that's the worst breakup of your life. Steve Eisenman needs to send spies to other teams practices to get, uh, get, uh, get the lowdown. That's what you're saying. Allegedly. My first overrated team is Pittsburgh.
Starting point is 00:45:59 And, you know, the penguins finished last season with 88 points. Their line here from Bed MGM is 90.5. Las, where did the penguins get better this year? Did I miss something? I think they just got older. They re-signed Sidney Crosby. That's good. Yeah, and he's great, but he and everyone else continue to get older. And he's the only one that I feel like is really maintaining his level to the true degree. Yeah, no, I mean, Malkin and Latang are, you know, they're teetering on the edge of the aging cliff, right? I agree with you here. It's hard to imagine the penguins improving standings-wise. I mean, I think it really does come down to nobody ever wants to doubt Sidney Crosby, right?
Starting point is 00:46:37 Like, he's a singular talent with a singular will. But it, I don't know. I mean, maybe we're looking at this. And, you know, whenever you're looking at betting odds, a lot of that is based on where the money is going. Yeah. The Penguin had a huge fan base and Crosby has built an international fan base for that team. It could be as simple as like the Chicago Cubs always have, you know, out of whack odds because they're just such a huge fan base every year.
Starting point is 00:47:02 It could be as simple as that because I'm with you. I don't, this is not a playoff contending team for me at all. Yeah, and they were in that mix last year with all these teams, but they still missed it. And that was with as low of a playoff bar as you're going to see in a conference, right? 91 or was it 90. 91 was 91 got in last year right? I believe that's the number yeah. Red Wings had 91 and lost out on the tiebreaker. You go into a year expecting that bar to be 96. So that was five points lower and they were missed it by three. So in a normal year, they missed it by eight. And I know we're talking about a line here, not necessarily the playoffs, but I'm sure that's the playoffs is their goal.
Starting point is 00:47:37 And I have a really hard time seeing that. I agree. It's a legacy. It's almost like a legacy number for them. Yeah. My other one, I'm not so sure I believe, but I needed another one. And I wanted to talk about this team. So let's do Tampa here. Tampa Bay at 98 and a half. Interesting offseason. They let Stamco's walk away.
Starting point is 00:48:01 They signed Jake Gensel to replace him. They trade Mikhail Surgachev. They bring back Ryan McDunna and they get J.J. Moser in the Surgachev deal. It's a lot of moving pieces and maybe a little like almost disorienting because of that, like to say like how much better or worse are they? But for a team that, you know, last year was good enough to get into the playoffs. But, you know, one and a half points better, I guess, is it's actually half a point better is the line. Did they get better is basically the question I wanted to talk about.
Starting point is 00:48:32 I don't know if I know the answer. But it seems plausible that they didn't. Yeah, I mean, look, Jake Gensel is a terrific player, but it's not like Stamcoast was, you know, an old shell of himself. who's 40 goal scorer last year with 41 assists too. I'm kind of with you where it's like Tampa's in that phase right now. I wrote this after they lost in the playoffs last year. I saw this with Chicago and we're seeing it with Pittsburgh where you're in that, we're not going to win another Stanley Cup with this group,
Starting point is 00:49:02 but we're too stubborn to recognize it. So we're clinging to that era. We're holding on to our guys. We're holding on to, and to their credit, let Stamco's walk, whether that's good or bad remains to be seen. but that's something that a lot of these teams have not been willing to do. They are clinging to the idea that they are still the elite of the NHL.
Starting point is 00:49:19 And they're simply not. They are now just another good team in the NHL. And at some point, that's when you start getting in trouble. You become Pittsburgh, where you go and try to trade for Eric Carlson because you refuse to acknowledge reality. And you resign all your old guys to contracts that are probably a year or two too long. And I feel like we're hurtling towards that in Tampa. And it's such a well-run organization that you'd like to see they could avoid it.
Starting point is 00:49:42 But so is Pittsburgh and so is Chicago. These were two of the league standard bears. You know, father time comes for us all. And Tampa's time is over. They're going to cling and they're going to be pretty good for a while here. But this is not a contending team. And when the fall comes, it usually comes hard. It usually is pretty precipitous.
Starting point is 00:50:01 So I could see Tampa making the playoffs this year, certainly. I could also see it just hitting the wall. I'm not sure how many metaphors I've mixed during this sentence. but it's they're on the wrong side, right? They're on the back nine. They're on the way down. Wow, three more for good measures. I'll just turn all the ones I can out there now.
Starting point is 00:50:22 It's preseason for everybody. I just at some point, it's going to get real bad in Tampa and it's going to be jarring the seat just like it was in Chicago, just like it wasn't Pittsburgh. I don't know what the Tampa Bay lineup like lines are, but right now I just pulled up their daily face off line chart. As on the second line listed there is Cam, Atkinson.
Starting point is 00:50:41 Camackinson had 28 points last season. There's no disrespect to him. But like that's the, that's like what we're talking about here is you, you reach this point and you're just throwing guys in places. And it like, I still like Nick Paul is a third line center. It's not like the lineup is only five forwards deep.
Starting point is 00:50:56 But after those five forwards, it starts to look real ordinary, real fast. Well, that's the thing is like, why are they signing Jake Gensel? Like, what is, what are they hoping to accomplish by, like, you know, either you do a tear down or you're, you keep Stamcoast and,
Starting point is 00:51:10 try to keep the band back together for the last dance, I don't know what Tampa thinks Tampa is, but it's not what I think Tampa is anymore. There's just this stubborn refusal to acknowledge that the window is closing. I guess a lot depends on more, Connor Kiki, who they traded for too, is, you know,
Starting point is 00:51:28 that was like kind of the one good thing of the surrogative trade is it actually gave them a path to, like, getting younger at some point here and having like a good player. It depends on Andre Bastilevsky. Like, yes. He was human for a lot of last season. and the cracks were showing.
Starting point is 00:51:43 But then he got really good again, and all of a sudden Tampa looked like they could be world beaters again. He is the kind of, so many goalies in the NHL are kind of a dime a dozen. And we always talk about how like the running backs of the NHL now or the teams don't want to invest in them. But there are still a few of them, the Chesterkins, the Sorokans, the Vasselovsky's, maybe Ottinger. But Vasselowski's a guy that can mask a lot of cracks.
Starting point is 00:52:06 We saw that, again, in Chicago, where they probably stuck around a year, year or two longer than they probably should have because Cory Crawford had his best years behind the worst teams of his era. And Vasilevsky is certainly a guy who's capable of doing that. All right. So you brought him up. So I was just going to ask you, what do you think, Andrea Vasselowski's, I hope you don't have this in front of you. Do you know what was a save percentage last season? Oh my God. I know it was up and down from 906. 900 flat. Wow. And I am with you. I still think he's absolutely in that five or six goalies that we talked about that can be the best goalie on the planet that number shocked me and
Starting point is 00:52:43 he that's the that's the lowest of his career by like a wide march i think the lowest before that was nine 10 i think i bet if you go look at his game log he was really good down the stretch too so imagine how bad it was for much of the season and i don't know how much of that is just like accumulated workload how much of that is pure randomness of goal tending or what but it it stood out to me and so yeah he's a guy who plays 65 70 games a year too right so like the workload he played it's not like a Swamen Olmard situation. He's never had that. I mean, how many games did he play when they were going to the Stanley Cup final every year? And he was playing 60 games just in the regular season and then adding like 25 to that every summer. We never properly value or rate the wear and the wear
Starting point is 00:53:24 and tear of the playoffs on these guys on their careers. Careers are shortened because of this. Like, you know, I remember the 2015 Stanley Cup run by the Blackhawks where they only had four defensemen and Duncan Keith was playing 35 minutes a night. And Brent Seabrook was playing 32 minutes tonight. That shortened those guys' careers by two or three years. And they'll tell you that. They also wouldn't trade it for a heart for anything. But those playoff runs, they age you considerably faster than guys who don't make the playoffs. 86 games in 2021-22 for Veselovsky playoff in regular season combined. Wild. Absolutely wild. All right. One more bonus team here that I'm not calling overrated, but I just wanted to broach them.
Starting point is 00:54:05 Boston's is 99 and a half because we talked about Swayman earlier. earlier. And obviously, he's the key factor to whether you like that line or not. They were at 109, I believe, last year for what they finished with. Where do you see the Bruins? And I guess, give me the contingencies, Swayman in the lineup on night one versus Sweman misses three weeks, four weeks. Dude, I have written off the Boston Bruins so many times over the last handful of years that I just give up on the Bruins. I don't understand the Bruins. I don't know what it is about them that allows them to avoid all the pitfalls that every other team faces. When their megastars leave, they somehow still, Charo leaves and Bergeron leaves and
Starting point is 00:54:44 crates. They're still fine. They just find the right guys. They, you know, their rebuild lasted like a year and a half in the middle of this. They have been the most consistent and steady teams since, what, in the entire league since 2009, 2010? I'm never writing off the Bruins. The Bruins are some kind of weird, you know, hockey automaton that just manufactures
Starting point is 00:55:04 110 point seasons. I don't understand it. I admire the hell out of it. And so Swamen or no Swamen, they're going to have 110 points this year because they always do. I'm with you. And I think Swamen will sign early enough. Like I just think that Boston is going to know that the urgency is there, that they have to get this done. And I look at their defense score right now, Las. Their defensemen are Zadorov-Mackavo, Lindholm, Carlo, Mason, Lari, and Andrew Peek. That's a perfectly real candidate for a top five blue line in the NHL. And they add Hampus Lindholm up front. No, it's still not the most imposing forward group of the NHL.
Starting point is 00:55:40 There's still a lot of questions up there. But for the way the Boston Bruins like to play hockey, that's fine. They're going to take their really good goalie and they're really good decor. And they're two or three really good offensive players. And they're going to strangle you to 110 points for 82 games. It's incredible. They are an absolute machine. They are an organization that just, they're kind of like their New England compatriots,
Starting point is 00:56:03 the Patriots where they just, you know, they had one or two guys that would always be there. And then they just made it work around them year after year after year. It's a hell of an organization. Yeah. All right. That's going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. Please leave us a rating, a five-star rating, if you don't mind. And a review if you're enjoying the show, we'll talk to you soon.

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