The Athletic Hockey Show - Which NHL wild card contender inspires the most confidence?

Episode Date: January 20, 2025

Max and Laz take a look at the ten teams competing for the final two Eastern Conference playoff spots and decide how confident they are in each one making the playoffs on a 1-10 scale. First, The Athletic’s NHL insider Chris Johnston joins the show to talk about the latest on the Canucks and a potential JT Miller trade with the Big Apple emerging as a possible destination. Plus, the guys discuss the Connor McDavid-Conor Garland fracas and a likely suspension for No. 97.Hosts: Max Bultman and Mark LazerusWith: Chris JohnstonExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. Hey, everybody. Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus for another episode of the athletic hockey show. Today we are going to be getting into the crowded Eastern Conference, try to figure out who exactly is going to get out of this thing. But first, we have with us today, our NHL insider, Chris Johnston. CJ, how you doing? I'm doing well. What are you guys saying?

We're going to talk a lot about the East today, but I want to start out west where all the good drama starts. and particularly in Vancouver, where it seems like after all the noise out of there, a little bit more of it's coming to be about J.T. Miller than the splashy Elias Patterson thing that I think everyone wants to hear about. Yeah, I mean, it's sort of become clear, I'd say, in the last week to 10 days, that after, you know, the Canucks certainly did have discussions on both Pedersen and Miller with other teams, that the focus had shifted to try to find somewhere to send J.T. Miller. And, you know, that's obviously complicated to a degree by the fact he has a no movement clause.

It's not just about procuring the best possible collection of assets for a player. I mean, there's other considerations that Vancouver has had to work through. And, you know, over the weekend, it did seem like it was at least getting a bit closer with the New York Rangers. I mean, how close it is, it's a tough thing to get to. I mean, put it this way. It never got to a stage where J.T. Miller was formally asked. to wave is no movement clause. But obviously talks progressed to a point where, you know, at one point that

Canucks were unsure if they were going to play J.T. Miller and Saturday Night's game or not because they were getting to a point where they felt they were close to a deal. And so, you know, where this goes next is a little tough to pinpoint except to say, you know, there's no world that Canucks want this to drag on much longer. I can't imagine J.T. Miller and his family would want that to happen either. And so I think the Canucks are going to push. pretty hard here to find them a new home, to, you know, maybe ease some of the pressure on their own team. I mean, let's see what the trades looks like and what the return looks like and does

this help them in the short term and all the questions that will come out of that because the Canucks, at the end of the day, they want to be a good team right now. I mean, and they're trading a guy who had 100 points last year. And so, you know, you're right. The drama has really not stopped for weeks in Vancouver, but I do feel that it's getting closer and closer to its merciful end. Do you have any kind of sense for what Vancouver is looking for for Miller? With Pedersen, I mean, he's 26. He's in the prime of his career. He's signed long term. You could ask for the stars in the moon. You know, Miller's 31. There's some baggage there. There's a reputation there. Is it harder to get something significant for him? Is it matter of addition

by subtraction? What would Vancouver be looking for in a potential J.T. Miller trade? Well, I think there's certainly an idea that it's addition by subtraction. You know, I think it could be a dangerous idea because when Miller's focused and channeling his energy in the right direction, things were working. I mean, we saw proof of it last season. A lot of good things happened for the Canucks with him as part of their team. You know, I think a big priority for them in these talks has been finding a way to at least somewhat replace the hole he's going to leave in their lineup, you know, specifically another centerman. You know, just because, as I say, I mean, Vancouver wants home playoff dates. They still have a team as weird as their season has been.

they've had a lot of injuries in addition to a lot of the sort of off-ice things that we've focused on. You know, but they do have a chance to get back in the playoffs and they're, they're certainly not looking to dismantle this team. So they've been looking for actual players, you know, not future players or prospects or draft picks. And, you know, a centerman as part of the package in order to at least be able to continue on, you know, when they, you know, ultimately, I believe we'll remove J.T. Miller from their lineup. I feel like one of the key elements that is allowed this to get as loud as it has is the fact that Pedersen has the no trade clause that kicks in in July, which will make any further complications here, much more problematic if it gets past that point. Is that fair characterization that that kind of deadline? You know, we always hear the deadlines make deals. Is it fair to say that that looming deadline out there makes this a more urgent need for Vancouver that they can't just necessarily let the chips fall where they may? Yeah, I think that's part of it. I mean, And the fact that these two guys have not co-existed well is also part of it.

So at some point, I think you watch, you try to do what you can behind the scenes, you hope that things are going to sort themselves out. You know, both Miller and Peterson are well off where their production has been in the past. So it's not working for either of them. And so I think you have to make a decision. You know, you're right to highlight, though, the fact that it would get infinitely more complicated if both players had no movement clauses or no trade clauses to consider. I mean, Pedersen could be shipped out.

And, you know, the other part about Pedersen, I mean, this is a weird case. I mean, I can't recall in cap years where you've had a player sign, I believe he's the fifth or sixth best player in the league. You know, he's, his production has fallen off a cliff since he signed that deal. I mean, usually you'd think, hey, you've removed any questions. You know, you're part of the team now. You know, you're here for life. You've got money for your grandkids.

I mean, you know, sometimes you see maybe the uncertainty about a situation. you know, sort of stifle players productivity. But, you know, really since last year's All-Star break, you know, Elias Pedersen is, he was a very different player before and since it in terms of the numbers. And so I think that it's all of those factors that they have to figure out how to get him back to where he can be his best. And, you know, obviously this is, I'm certainly not going to say, hey, it's all J.T. Miller's fault.

They're just trading him away. Now everything will be great. I mean, I think Elias Pedersen. And it's something actually Patrick Alvin's acknowledged publicly in an interview. I remember at the Amacatar at Sportsnet about him having to sort of grow up and mature too. I mean, so I think it's shared here. But it's forced them to the point where they have to make a big decision. And they're making, in my opinion, probably the easier of the two decisions.

I mean, trading way your 26 year old superstar guy and Pedersen would probably carry more risk just with the age and everything like that. And basically the likelihood it could bite you in the butt. And so it appears they're going to. going down the other path right now. And really, it's about finding a deal that makes some sense for the Kinnux and obviously that Miller's a place he's willing to go play. Has it forced this decision, though, really?

I mean, isn't there just a segment? I just want to say, shut up and work. Like, grow up both of you and figure this out. There have been guys who have hated each other on NHL teams since time immemorial. And you know what? You suck it up and you get over so you don't go out to dinner with the guy. Figure it out because they're both really, really good. But last year they were, you know, Miller was fabulous last year.

We all know what Elias Pedersen can be. Like, there's a part of me that's just like, you want to grab both these guys by the scruff of their neck and say, just figure this out. And how are you letting this team get destroyed over your pettiness? That's why, right? Like if you want to take that chance, you can take that chance. But once there's a no trade clause involved with this, then. But now they're selling low on your Miller last year was a elite elite player. I'm an idiot.

And I protected J.T. Miller over Connor Hello Buck in the Athletics Fantasy League. That's how good J.T. Miller was last year. And he's not that right now. And now you've got this, saddled around his neck. This is not selling high on a really, really good hockey player. So I don't know. If I'm Vancouver, I'm not so sure. I don't just, you know, get him in a couples counseling, something, something to figure this out. Well, and it's a harder trade to make during the season, too. I mean, it's, you're limiting the field just by definition there, not just because he has the no movement clause, but there's just some teams that couldn't add an $8 million center at this point in time.

Like teams that might love J.T. Miller just look at this and go too complicated. We have a great cap guy. We can't make this work right now. Let's, you know, why don't you wait till the draft when, you know, the other place that trades can happen. So, you know, I guess look at it. There's still a world. He's still a member of the Canucks.

I'm, I'm guilty here. I'm talking about this like it's a foregone conclusion just because it really does feel like it's getting to the end point. But, you know, there's still a world, I suppose, where this doesn't come down, where they don't find that trade, where the couple's counseling kicks in. I can tell you this, Lazz, you're, thinking is not wrong here. I mean, the Canucks themselves back in November, that's where they were.

They were thinking like, okay, let's let's everyone get through this. This is crazy. You know, obviously things are not going great here behind the scenes, but, but, you know, let's address this. Let's get it out in the open. I mean, you even had Quinn Hughes. I mean, he talked about this publicly to the reporters. I mean, this has been kind of an ongoing, you know, soap opera in a sense.

And I think that there was always a hope that they'd figure it out. But, you know, they won about five games from an early point in December until into January here. They're precipitate, you know, they're perilously close to falling to a spot where they're on the wrong side of the playoff ledger. And I think, you know, part of it too is just interpersonally, this has been tough. Having the trade rumors be this public for these good of players on a team trying to win, it doesn't really happen too much in our sport. And so I think all of those things have taken a toll to where management's ready to act. Oh, it's great for us. Don't get me wrong. It's great fodder. But yeah, it's, it is so strange for this to be so.

public and between two superstar players like this. Like you just, you don't see this in the modern NHL. I mean, we take more of it from our standpoint, very selfishly here, because we're not talking about it. Our family's up and moving in the middle of the hockey season. But, you know, certainly it's, it's been a pretty good year in the league. If you like player movement, rumors, all those types of things. I mean, it hasn't been, it's been atypical, I'd say.

And I hope that continues between now and March 7th. CJ, like I said at the top, we're going to move into some Eastern Conference stuff when we go into our main segment here. But I want to ask with how crowded that field is, what does that do as these teams preparing for the trade deadline? Because usually by this point, there is a little more clear lines demarcating who the buyers and who the sellers are. And I think in the East right now, is there more than one or two teams that know their sellers right now? No, not many more, I would say. and you know you got team like Pittsburgh who I think could still go either way like if you told me the penguins are part of this playoff chase a month or two from now I'm not I wouldn't be surprised

but I think they're a little more committed to a longer vision in the sense that you know such as they have a few players to sell I think that they're likely to sell them guys like Marcus Pedersen you know who's a pending UFA and you know there's really been no movement towards signing him I just think he's going to be traded you know wherever they are or not but for other teams it's certainly complicated. I mean, look where you sit, Max, in Detroit, in Ottawa and Montreal, three teams kind of that get lumped together because they've been on the wrong side of the playoff line in the Atlantic Division for so long, all each trying to pull themselves up and eventually crack that wall and make the playoffs again. I mean, I think there's an argument for

all of them potentially to be at least low-key buyers. I don't necessarily mean out there, you know, trade in first round picks for the top players available, but certainly looking to add to, because, you know, their groups have put themselves in a position to get in. And then you have the extreme case, which is Columbus, which, you know, I think had any of us talked about likely sellers from the first day of the season until a few weeks ago, and most people had the blue jackets pretty high, Ivan Proverov's been well featured on our trade board. And, you know, now I do think that it's gone so well there for so long and obviously really difficult circumstances for that team over a number of years with lots of things that have that have happened. and obviously the tragedy before this season with Johnny Goodrow and his brother Matthew. I mean, I don't know what getting in the playoffs is worth. Like they're likely to, if they get in,

they're probably going to lose in five games. I think we all know that. But, you know, I don't know that given everything they've been through, if your management, you want to be removing too many trusted voices from that dressing room. So, you know, I do think it's a long answer to your question.

Really the answer is simple. I think the trade market has not taken shape, you know, expressly because of this. you have one conference where it's a total crapshoot. I think the West, it's obvious, the Anaheim, Chicago, the teams that have sold San Jose that have sold in the last couple of years are likely to sell what they can again. Now those teams don't necessarily have the most attractive players because they've been selling in past years.

But I think this trade deadline, the way it's looking to me, it might not be to after the Four Nations tournament before just a surge of activity, essentially in a two-week period, because that event, itself is like 10, 12 days on the schedule where nothing's going to happen in terms of, you know, teams winning or losing games, all those sorts of things. And then, you know, the fact that the East could go in a lot of directions right now, especially for that second wildcard spot. The fact that the New York Rangers right at the ship here a little bit, I mean, two weeks, two, three weeks ago, we were talking about them trading anyone and everyone, you know, Chris Crider

Mika Sabanajad, anyone you could think of was available basically other than like maybe Artemie Panerran and Igor Chesterkin. Does that change now? Are the Rangers, do they rethink everything now after settling back in and being in the fight? Is this still a team that fancies itself, you know, a contender in some way still because they entered the season that way? Well, my sense of their thinking is it doesn't change everything. Now, it might change a couple things for them, but I still think that they believe they have larger, I mean, it's already started, right? You trade your captain and Jacob Truba. You trade a relatively recent second overall pick and Kako. you know, you're in the J.T. Miller discussions, you know, to me, they feel like they need some

fundamental changes longer term than just this season. But, you know, what it might do is the timeline on that might shift. I mean, if they're still thinking about a Crider or Zabenejad, I mean, maybe they're like, okay, let's put that to the side and, you know, see what happens in the offseason, you know, at least stay with these players as part of the team to see what they can achieve this year. But, you know, I still think the Rangers are up for making trade. it won't necessarily be either. We like to lump teams into two pots, right? It's either you're selling players or you're buying players.

I think that they're still going to be in the middle where I could see them both looking to trade some guys, but also adding at the same time almost, I mean, we'll call them hockey trades for lack of a better term. But I do think that they're still interested in shaking up what their team is. But the fact that they've righted the ship here the last little while certainly takes some of the urgency out of the everything must go vibe that they were carrying for a little while there.

You mentioned the Four Nations break. Just to clarify, you can make moves. And there's no roster moratorium during that break, right? Exactly right. And the other thing, which is a little bit inside baseball, but for teams that are cap teams, which is a lot of the teams that are trying to win a Stanley Cup and that will be adding players,

they also have to have, if they make a trade before that time, you have the player on your roster, basically accounting for cap space when you don't even have games to play. And so I think, especially for teams that, are pretty close to the cap ceiling or are mindful of that,

there's not a lot of incentive to make a trade before the Four Nations tournament just because it basically weakens your cap position and you don't, you're not going to be playing with that player. You're not even assimilating. You know, sometimes, you know, Jim Rutherford always love to trade for players early, you know, more time on the roster, make them more comfortable, all those things. I mean, everyone's going to be on vacation then. So, you know, essentially I don't think unless teams feel that there's a bidding war

and you absolutely must strike before February 12th, I think, realistically, you're probably not going to see many moves, maybe towards the end of that Four Nations break or when the league gets started up again around February 21st or 22nd. Could be kind of a good opportunity, though, coming out of it if the player is not at four nations, because they get that like three or four day practice window, kind of a mini training camp if you wanted to make your trade right at the end of that kind of thing, if you have the cap space to do it at least. For sure, and the GMs, you know, obviously some of the GMs are involved with the countries

going to the tournament, but, you know, there's 32 GMs. probably 26 of them are not. And, you know, those people have time. I think to have meetings internally to really step back from the grind of the season to look at their needs to have discussions. And so I could see trades sort of getting lined up in that period, even if they're not consummated, you know, exactly during that tournament. Perfect. He is Chris Johnston of the athletic. We'll be right back.

All right. We are back, Laz. And I am just dying to dig in to the most mediocre Eastern Conference playoff race since last season. Yes, the Elephanton Renan is back. Is that what we're calling it? That's what we called it last year, yeah. I missed that one. I like that, though.

Two trucks on the highway going 55 and 56 miles an hour, and you can't get around either of them, that's the elephant in renan. And if that's not true, all right, so here's what we're going to do. We're going to go down the list here of the teams outside of the current divisional spot. So the top three in the Atlantic, the top three in the Metro are exempted. We're going to go through everybody else because basically all of them except Buffalo. still at least have a prayer at this thing and maybe even Buffalo. So, hey, we'll include them too. You want to know how tight this is and how

mediocre all these teams is? When we were talking about doing this segment about kind of given our confidence on each team, I was like, oh, I need to look at strength of schedule because that's going to be a deciding factor. And everyone's strength of schedule is basically the same from like five to 30 because they're all playing the same teams and all those teams have the same freaking records.

Yeah, strength of schedule is kind of weird like that where you look and like the hardest strength of schedule. Okay, let's go. Let's go. third highest strength of schedule is 562. And the number 18 is 549. So that's 0.013. And when you factor in shootout points, which aren't really hockey, it all means that everyone's basically the same. Yeah, unless you're at the very bottom, like Nashville does have the weakest strength of schedule by a long shot, 518. And Detroit and the islanders actually have a little bit of a gap between them and the field there. But once you're inside, those middle 20

are quite similar. But nevertheless, let's go through these here. Starting with Ottawa, which I think is a team that my confidence has gone up over the last month, I would say in Ottawa senators. Where are you at on them? You know, if we're ranking everybody here, confidence one to ten, I'm like a seven on Ottawa. I feel good about the senators now.

Like, you know, that game against the Bruins had like this playoff like feel for it. And then they turn around, they go into New Jersey and they win a matinee there with a tough travel and all that. that, you know, Olmark is on his way back. He rejoined the team. Merrillinen has been fantastic filling in the gap there. I think Anton freaking Forsberg won a game today. I mean, things are coming up Ottawa.

It's funny because just a couple of weeks ago, I think they had lost like four straight and six of seven, something like that, and the sky was falling. And now, out of all these teams, I think I might feel best about the Ottawa senators right now. Yeah, I think I'm with you. I think they're an eight for me because I like the way they're going. I really trust Allmark and goal for them.

I saw them in Detroit recently, and the Redmings actually beat them, which does not happen often. The centers have really had their number. But I still just think this is a team that's pretty well built. Would I pick them to get out in the West? I'm not so sure. But in this field, I think they have the fewest question marks. And that's why I like how they're not like, you know, a lot of times you see with these teams, they're really top heavy, like one or two guys are really carrying them along.

Their offense is really spread out. It's not like it's just Brady could chuck out there and Tim Stutz with scoring goals. You know, is Adam Goddette going to keep? this up. Is you going to score 30 goals this year? Probably not. I think he's shooting like 89% or something absurd like that. But I like how they're not overly dependent on one or two guys. They've got the goaltending. And I think that's going to be a common theme throughout as we go through these teams is there's a lot of bad goaltending out there. And Ottawa's got good goaltending. And that's what's going to separate these teams. Yeah. And I also just think their blue line has a little bit of

everything. You've got kind of your more offensive guy in Shabbat. Sanderson's kind of a do-it-all. Zub and Jensen, I like both of those guys as defense first defenders. I think it's just really well-rounded when you combine that to an all-marked. And they have their scores, they have some physicality. They have soft skill. They have hard skill. They have a little bit of everything. It's not in an elite level.

I'm not going to pick them to go on a run. But of this field, I think they have the fewest questions. So you're going seven. I'm going eight. Let's go to the next team. Let's do this in order of the standings right now, because I think that makes it the most fun. So next up right now is the Columbus Blue Jackets. How about that?

How about that? I don't think, you know, we need to talk about the Columbus Blue Jackets more. Is there a better story in all of sports than the Columbus Blue Jackets being not only like mildly competitive, but pretty good? Like legitimately good right now with all that they've been through and all the history of that team. Like is anybody not rooting for the Columbus Blue Jackets right now? No, I can't imagine. They are a phenomenal story right now. And the thing is they've played well.

Like this doesn't seem to be smoke and mirrors. There's big questions. The goaltending, I think, stands out as a big question. but they've played well. This is a high event team, man. They score a lot of goals and they give up a lot of goals, which, you know, that's not going to work in the playoffs, but that can get you into the playoffs.

We've seen teams that just play this, you know, kind of firewagon hockey get into the playoffs before. And I mean, the goaltending is horrendous. Merzleekins and Tarasaw, they're both below 8, 90s, say percentages. But this is, you know, they have the highest scoring games of any team in the league. And they like, they're comfortable playing that way. You know, it was Zach Rowensky, Werensky, let alone the Norris, he might be a heart candidate at this point. I think he is.

Like, there's a, I'm going to put a five here, and it's because almost strictly of the goaltending. I just cannot feel good about those two goalies. But this is a team that is, they're not here, like you said, this isn't smoking mirrors. This isn't a fluke. Like they were supposed to be battling with the sharks and the Blackhawks and the ducks at the bottom of the standings for the number one pick next year. But they're sitting here in a playoff spot. And they belong. Yeah.

That said, my confidence is a four. I think I don't think I see the center depth there to survive what it's going to take to get in here. And I do think eventually the Red Wings were in a similar spot to the Blue Jackets last year, where they were this team that was kind of punching above their weight. They were doing it with this run and gun kind of style. And right around mid-March, you could see all the teams start really gearing it up to get ready for the playoffs. And the character of the games changed in a way that just did not suit the way. way the Red Wings wanted to play. Their offense dried up a little bit, and they weren't equipped

to stop teams. And I don't think they had the goal tending really to stop teams. They got really banged up. I see something similar happening for Columbus this season. And maybe the Redmings came close. They were within a tiebreaker last year. I could see Columbus staying close. But I think it's just that style of play. Once it gets close to playoffs, it really starts to get kind of taken out. And as we talked about with CJ, they're going to have to make a decision on Proverov. I mean, he's number three on CJ's tradeboard behind the two Canucks Super Super. stars. I mean, beyond those two guys, this isn't the most exciting group of rentals to be has. So Proverov is a pretty high, highly sought after person at this point. And if someone's

willing to throw a first round pick at them, they're going to have to take a long look at themselves and decide, you know, do we need to worry about the big picture here or do we need to chase this really good story? All right. How about the Boston Bruins here, which they've been an auto 10 to make the playoffs for the longest time here now? But I don't think they're a 10 now. I have them like at like a six, but that's like by inertia. It's just because I just assume they're going to get in somehow. They have a minus 23 goal differential.

This is not a good hockey team. Like it's kind of bizarre where they're at right now, given how poorly they played. I mean, they're basically a break-even team at five-on-five, but they're getting killed at every other aspect of the game. Jeremy Swamen, bad, like not mediocre, but bad this year.

He's 50th in goal-saved above expected in this league right now. he's minus, he's in the 800s in the save percentage. He is a sub replacement level Goldie. And we are more than halfway through the season. He is not living up to that contract. He might be feeling the way to that contract. We can't just blame it on the fact that they didn't have much of a training camp anymore. We're way past that point.

And yeah, you keep telling yourself, oh, he'll come around and they'll be fine. They'll be fine. They'll be fine. Man, it's late January. They're not fine at all. I think it's a toss up for them. And I think the odds, if Jesse Granger were here to tell us, would reflect that. Our friends at BetMGM have the Bruins to make the playoffs.

Yes, minus 110. No, minus 110. So a true coin flick, you're not really getting any edge on that either way. I think it's a toss-up. I don't know that they have the offense to get in, but Jeremy Swayman, if he gets hot, which still can very well happen. He is a much better goaler than he's shown to your point. If it happens, then I can see them holding off like a charging Rangers team. I don't.

I don't see it, but I'm going to go with a five because I respect the organization and some of their stars that much. Boston's gold differential is significantly worse than both the Islanders and the Sabers. Like when this team loses, they lose. Like, it's really something. Yeah, it is the second worst goal differential in the Easter conference above only Pittsburgh. Wow. I mean, part of me wants to see them make it just so the Leafs have to play them again

because it feels like the Leafs always have to play the Bruins. It's always a good series. but like Boston's had a run here where they have been competitive all but one or two seasons since like the late 2000s. And, you know, I guess time comes for all teams. But man, I don't know what it is. I had this innate inability to just write them off. Like I know they're bad. I know they're not as good as some of these teams we're going to talk about today.

But I still kind of think they'll just going to get in because they always do. Well, that's kind of what I mean. Like I think if you just gave me this roster in plain stock, white, jerseys, I think I'm giving them like a four. I will give them, I'll bump them up to the five to to the true coin flip on respect for the organization and for the players and what they've all done there. Let's go to Montreal. Wait, hang on 30th ranked power play in the league. They're scoring at 13%. Well, that is, that actually should probably encourage you that they can do it because I don't think that's going to hold. You're going to see it's hell for 46 or 47 games now. That's a pretty

good chunk of the season. We're past the small sample size here. Yeah, but I still believe in in regression to the mean at any sample. But also, the PK is terrible too. It's 24th. All right. The Montreal Canadians here. They are one of the best stories in the league, too, I would say, especially lately. They have been red hot, overtime game with the Rangers on Sunday evening here. We'll talk about the Rangers very soon, by the way. How about the Montreal Canadians? What's your confidence level? I've got them at a six. I like what I see out of them, but I'm really kind of starting to get a little worried about Sam Montembo. He was such a good story the first half of the season and he was so good.

He's really kind of come back down earth a little bit since around New Year's. He just gave up, what, six goals of Toronto? Who's the real Sam? Like, what are we going to see down the stretch here? I think is going to determine really Montreal's fate here. This is not a terribly good five-on-five team. And if the goaltending kind of gets shaky, that's how you miss the playoffs. I'm at a six here, which feels a little bold to go above Boston for them.

But I am kind of a believer in these young teams. that get a little momentum, a little infectious energy. They're kind of too young to know that it's not supposed to go like this. And they can ride that a little bit. And I think that's kind of what I'm buying into here. Patrick Liney's been a really nice addition for them. I still think Urislovsky's going to find another gear as this progresses. I don't think I'm going to pick them to get in,

but I like their chances to keep this really interesting more than some of the teams around them. I love that Cole Caulfield's out there killing it. Kirby Doc has been playing a lot better lately as Patrick Lines's center. I think that makes them a much more, you know, it extends the lineup significantly when Doc is playing well. I've seen that for a few years in Chicago when he's on and when he's not on, what a difference it can make in the lineup. I feel like, you know, if you were asking me who I want to make the playoffs, it'd probably probably be Columbus and Montreal because I think those are the best stories here. But I don't know if I can really believe that it is going to be those two teams. All right. Next on this list is the Philadelphia Flyers.

a team that I think we are instinctively the opposite of Boston. We're just kind of inclined to go, yeah, they're going to keep it interesting and then come up just short. Is that a fair read on this? I got them at a three. This Philly team is not going to, out of this bunch of teams, this is maybe the most underwhelming of the group. I just, they have three goalies that are all below 890. Here's a stat for you. There's a little bit of homework on this one. In goal saved above expected, according to evolving hockey, there are 87 goalies in the league this year. Philly's three goals. are 66th, 82nd, and 85th in GSAX. This team has no prayer of making the playoffs with that kind of goaltending.

What do you think BetMGM has their playoff odds at? Of making it? Of making it. It's going to be like something like plus 1,100. It's actually half of that, plus 550. So BetMGM likes their odds quite a bit more than you do. I'm going to side with you on this one. I agree with you.

The goaltending is not there. The centers aren't there. It's a young decor. I don't really see any one thing that I could hang my hat on other than play really hard for John Tortorella that I could see to separate them from this pack. It's frustrating because they'll they'll lose four in a row and look like a team that would lose four in a row. But then they'll rip off like four or five wins in a row or go four oh and one in a stretch. And you're like, I can kind of see it now. They're very streaky.

So you don't know how that's going to play out. But are they going to trade Rasmus Ristolina? What are they going to do down the stretch here? this is a difficult team to really get a feel for, but it's not hard to write them off. It's really hard to feel confident about these guys. Yeah, I think if you wanted to take the flyers, I would just ask you, who's going to be there?

Is it Mavvay Michkov, the rookie? Like, is that where you're putting your hope that they're going to do this? Is it Travis Kineckney? Yeah, maybe he's kind of got a little bit of that clutch in him. And which goal is it? Is it Erson? Is it Fidotov? Is it Coloss?

Like, there's just, there's no hope back there. And you don't see a team like Philly. making like a push for a deadline goalie in the position they're in. So it's hard to see help from outside there too. So what's your number on them? I think it's a three and I consider it two. So yeah. All right.

The New York Rangers next up there. They lost that game, by the way, to the Canadians that I mentioned earlier in overtime. But they have been better of late. Maybe a little bit of a spark enough for you to buy them. Is it enough to probably have the best roster of any of the teams we're going to discuss? I got them at a seven.

Like I think they're going to do it. I think the Rangers are going to make the playoffs here. And it's because of two words. Igor Sches-Serkin, right? Everything else is starting to figure things out, starting to write the ship a little bit. Igor Schesterkin is so much better than any other goalie that we've talked about so far in this discussion. You can make a case for Jeremy Swain and figuring it out.

But again, he's not been good this year. That it just, I default to the goalie. When you have the best goalie in the world or the second best, depending on how you feel about Connor Halebuck. And you're just a few points out, I don't see how you can pick against the Rangers right now. Yeah, I'm with you at a 7. I think what I said about Montreal

and being kind of too young to know how hard it is to do what they're doing and how unrealistic it kind of is, the opposite is true for the Rangers. They're veteran enough to not be too panicked by the hole that they dug themselves into. It's why I believe that the guys who have been there before, they can kind of tap into it. When I talk about the style of play shifting as you kind of get to mid-March,

the Rangers is one of the teams that I'm, talking about they can do that kind of thing. So they have the best goalie. They got a lot of good veterans. Underperforming as they may be is. The advantage and credit have underperformed this season. But I do believe that the muscle memory of those guys and these long playoff runs that they've had, once we get into that time of year, it will click in for them.

And I do think they're going to push Montreal. That's who I see the second spot coming down to realistically. Maybe Columbus kind of that dark horse. I think it comes down to Montreal and the Rangers. And I think Ottawa is going to be in. So that is where we're at through. We got one or two more here? Well, hang on. So they're a 5-0-3 now in their last eight.

So since losing 15 of 19 at that low point where things were just a total debacle. I feel like we need to talk about Chris Kreider and the Siyang here. He's having an all-time Siong. He is Brandon peering it out here. He's now got he scored again tonight. He's got 15 goals and two assists. He's got two assists. He had 36 assists last year. And what a bizarre season he's having. He could still be traded. The Rangers could go in so many different directions right now. They're just absolutely a fascinating team.

They continue to be. They were fascinating when they were a disaster, and they're fascinating now that they're not. Yeah, low on-ice shooting percentage with Kreider on the ice. So that's a little part of it, but it's weird. You would think that he would just pick up some rebound assists, if nothing else. Just a couple of power play assists? Yeah, I mean, two.

He's got two. Does BetMGM, producer Chris, have a line on Chris Kreider assists for the final of the season? And if not, should we set one? If I gave you nine and a half, Laz, you'd take an over under nine and a half. I mean, normally you would, but I mean, he's on, he's averaging what, like one every 24 games? He's on base for four. I think he should be like 11 and a half. I think he's going to, I think he'll go over 10.

You'd think you'd have to regress to the mean a little bit there. My God. All right, bet MGM. We need some Chris Kreider season total assist lines. We need more fun. We need some props. We need them to come up with some odd props for us. Here we go.

The Detroit Red Wings, there, uh, right behind the Rangers in the standings right now. They two have had a little surge of late, although it is definitely leveling off here now that they've gone on this road trip. Looks like they're going to lose as we are recording this. It looks like they're going to lose to Dallas down by three goals in the third period. They lost to Tampa the other night. What's your confidence level on the Red Wings?

I got them at a four. I'm fading. You asked me a week or two ago, and I would have been a lot higher on them. You know, we could talk about the new coach bump and all that. They've still been playing better even when they've been losing. but that shark's loss really gave me some pause.

On the other hand, they've beaten Columbus and Ottawa and Florida lately. Like, this is not a bad team. It's kind of where we've seen Detroit be these last couple of years where they're like, all right, this is like an 88 to 91 point team that's going to finish in 10th place and not get a top five pick again and just kind of start the hamster wheel over and over again. It just feels like we're still in that spot with Detroit. Yeah, I'd go a five similar to Boston, just kind of a coin flip.

Maybe they can do it. Maybe they can't. Probably little different ways that they would get there than the Bruins would. But I do think that the bump they've had under McClellan is not all adrenaline. Like I do think there has been a little revitalization here. And the question is going to be, can they sustain it once the adrenaline is fully worn off from all that? And it's going to take something special to make like, we're joking about this being like this terrible race of mediocrity. But when there's this many teams involved, somebody's going to get hot. It's going to take a special, like the last.

20 games, you're going to have to win like 13 or 14 of those games to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference out of this group because somebody's going to get hot. You're not going to just, it's not going to be like where I think it was last year. There was like two or three teams that were really in the race. You've got eight or nine teams that think they're in this race right now. You're going to have to do something special. And it's like when I look at these listsies, I can see the Rangers doing something special. I can see Ottawa doing something special.

I can even see Columbus. I'm not sure I can see Detroit really going on a great run. And you know what? I need to dock them to a four because I just remember what I said at the very beginning of this. They have the hardest remaining strength of schedule in the NHL and I think a lot of those are on the road. So I will go down to a four there. I think they have maybe the hardest path of anybody to do this. The Eiser plan continues. That's right. The Pittsburgh Penguins, a team that I was personally ready to write off months ago. And I'm going to just beat you to the punch year. I will give them a one.

A one. A one. I don't know. There's something about the penguins. It's like, they're like, it's Indiana Jones. I'm like a bad penny. I always turn up. They're just always around. They're hanging around. They're hanging around. This is a team with a minus 36 goal differential.

Yes. That is spectacularly bad. That's like Blackhawks level bad. Like this is, this is in so many ways an atrocious team. They've given up the most goals in the NHL by double digits over the next team. There's no way I'm picking that team to make it. It's another team with horrible goaltending, right? Delcovich, Jerry's now been waived and Blumquist, whatever, I think, I hope that Kyle Dubus

isn't going to be tempted at the deadline to, we got to do this one more time for Sid and Gino and get suckered into that because they're going to be near enough that you could talk yourself into it, but they have to be thinking more globally here. This is, this is not a team that has any chance of doing anything, even if it did somehow make the playoffs. You might talk yourself into it. You're not talking me into it. We're not going to do the sabers here today, but just for context, what would your confidence interval be on the sabers to make the playoffs?

It'd be a two. You give them a two? Is that too high? Yeah, I would think so. Again, could they get hot? Sure, any team in this group can get hot. And nobody, it's just, it's just this big mush.

I don't think you can go, I don't think you can honestly say any of these teams is a one. Like the islanders. I just did. You just completely skipped over the islanders. I guess that makes them a zero. But the islanders and the penguins are basically at the same points percentage here. But nobody thinks the islanders are going to make the playoffs, except for Lou Lamarillo.

And they're not going to make the playoffs. But I don't know. It's hockey, man. Weird stuff happens. Well, to me, a one's like a 10% chance, right? So I don't give them a zero, right? You're putting math behind it. All right.

Yeah. So, I mean, to me, that's literally kind of what it is. But I'm just going on vibes here, man. And might even be high, right? Like there might be a little bit of a bell curve here for the distribution of these. It's going to be fascinating to see, though, because these are three teams with fan bases that are not patient, right? Buffalo has been waiting for freaking ever. You know, they got the bills.

The bills won tonight. I'm very happy for Buffalo fans. They have something to cling to there. The bills beat the Ravens. But the Sabres, it's been about 14 seasons were on now. Like that's, you can't just tear it down again there. They'll lose their minds. Islanders fans are just.

I grew up one of them. These are my people that you don't want to piss them off. And Lou La Marello is starting to piss them off. They don't know what they are. They're like this ancient old team with hardly any young guys, and they're still trying to go for it now, even though they have no chance of it. And then Pittsburgh's like this legacy team with these icons,

these franchise pillars that you want to do right by, but the right thing to do for the team would probably be to move on from both of them, which we've seen so many teams do over the years. these are three teams that are like, they're in bad spots, man. These are bad times. They're not bad enough to really, you know, to go out and get a top pick next year,

but they are not good enough to really have any realistic hope here. Like, they are stuck. Like, are the Islanders going to trade Brock Nelson? Does that make them better? I don't know. What are these teams? I don't know if, yeah, I think you probably have to trade Nelson, I guess,

just get something for. but I do get your point. I mean, the one saving grace that once we're in this territory that some of these teams have, and granted, there's some teams out West that are pretty bad too when they're going to take up some of these spots. This draft class does look like it's five or six deep of like pretty interesting prospects. So if you are, if you end up with the fifth or the sixth or maybe even the seventh pick this year, you may have a chance to get a guy that you had two, three, four on your list.

But that's just it. The way that the conferences are balanced right now, the worst teams are all in the West, right? There's like the sharks and the Blackhawks and the predators and the ducks. Like it's entirely conceivable that, you know, Buffalo by the end of this will be in like the fourth worst spot in the east alone, just that they win a couple of games. Like that's a fine line we're talking about between drafting fourth overall and drafting ninth overall would be like two wins in April. Like these are precarious positions. These are not horrible teams. These are middling, mediocre messes that there's just no way out of.

It feels like you're just sinking in the morass. All right. So what's your confidence level on the aisles? On the aisles, that's a one. Okay, that's where you draw the line? The sabers and the pens. I have more confidence in the penguins that I do in the Islanders and the Sabres at this point, yes. Because I still think there's a chance that Pittsburgh goes full Pittsburgh and it's like,

you know what, we're not going to trade, you know, Marcus Patterson, we're going to start adding at the deadline. We think we got one more run out of these guys in us. I feel like CJ just said they're going to trade Patterson as my voice goes like three octas up. You got you jumped real high there. That was interesting. What are the odds on that? I just, I don't know, man.

I don't trust the penguins to accept reality. It's, it's been, it's been challenging them for a few years now for them to accept that they're on the, uh, the wrong side of the curve now. Yeah, I think I kind of wanted to make an argument that's, like I like the odds better that Ilya Sorokin becomes the best goal in the league for the final two months of the season than that. But then I realized Patrick Wa is that even going to play Sorokin enough for that to really

do that kind of damage. So I guess there goes that. I'm a two on the record. On the islanders? Yeah. What did you have on the penguins and the savers? I give a two to the sabers too. Penguins are my no chance team.

So you have more faith in the islanders and the sabers than the penguins. Okay. All right. Yeah. They've given up the most goals in the NHL by double digits. I feel like that's just falls down. You know, it's funny, as bad as they are, you know, I know PDO is a stat that's kind of gone out of fashion a little bit. They have one of the lowest PDOs in the league.

They're at 900, 983 right now, which which would lend one to believe that they are due for a positive regression. But that's usually because the goaltending is underperforming. I think the goalies are just this bad. Well, Alex Ndalkovich can get hot. He can't. I've seen him do it. He can give you a really good month. but it's just a matter of like,

can you sustain that over a prolonged period of time? So I guess that would be their path as if somebody like that gets. Yeah, as producer Chris says, he's scoring goals too. He is scoring goals. And he, you know what? Shout out to Alex Adelkevich.

Have we done a show since that happened? Because look, I covered him for two years and he wanted to score a goal. Like that was something he thought about. He's a great puck handler. He wanted to score a game too. Yeah, I loved that.

He did the Lambo leap into his own bench. I loved it. That was fantastic. That was great. I am incredibly happy. Have you ever seen a goalie goal? I've seen Pecoreen scored one in Chicago once. Only goal of the goal of ever seen.

I don't think I've ever seen one live, no. It's a beauty, man. It's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, there's a, even when the other team does it, like, the crowd's into it. Like, yeah, that was cool. We used to get really excited in the press box when the Redmings had a two goal league. Because in Nadelcovich, I don't think was going to go for it on a one goal lead. It was like, is this going to be the night?

Because, because you knew he might go for it if they had a two goal lead. And the situation presented itself. Never happened in Detroit, but I'm really happy. for him. We've all seen these guys of practice. They try, they practice this. Oh, yeah. They will spend some time just chucking the fuck from behind their net to the other net, just seeing what they can do.

No, it was really cool. All right, any final thoughts on the Eastern Conference here? I think based on where we're at, we're not too far off on really any of those except for I think I dislike the Penguins' chances more than you. Well, let me ask you this. Is this good? I mean, it's, you know, you know Gary

Batman loves his parody, right? And you're going to have a ton of teams and fans. bases who think they're in it. Is this going to be a good race or is this going to be just like one of those like NFC West is a six and eight team going to win a six and ten team going to win the division kind of races? I think both depending on who you're talking to, right? If you're talking to a fan of one of these teams, it is good. I think it's good to keep individual fan bases invested. I felt it here in Detroit last year. I think everyone kind of knew those Red Wings weren't going to go anywhere if they got in. But having them in that mix was really good for the market.

And I think just the fan base is enthusiasm. So if you can keep six to eight fan bases right on the heels, like if you compare it to two or three years ago where the East playoff cut seemed like it was set by this time two or three years ago, I think that is much worse than everyone else is demoralized and playing out the string. I think that's where you get some of the real clear tank moves that people hate versus this, I think for those fan bases, it's good. If you are a kind of either an unaffiliated,

like you're just kind of an NHL fan for the sake of fandom, or if you're a fan of a Western conference team and you're flipping these teams on, you're going to be really annoyed that one of these teams is going to make the playoffs, I think. But them's the breaks. I think it's if Columbus stays in in particular, if it's like mid-March and Columbus is still in this, you're going to start seeing that become a big deal. And I think that, you know, people will pay attention to that.

And that becomes a story that people are really rooting for. And like the whole that that's what I'm really hoping happens. Whether they get in or not, if they have that. end of season push, I think that'll be a really exciting story to follow. And I do think people want to see one of these teams from the Atlantic, Detroit, Ottawa, and Buffalo that have been rebuilding for the better part of a decade. I think they do want to see one of them break through and end this kind of rebuild derby between them and quit this whole thing of like, is this the year?

One of them gets in. Is this the year? Let's just have this be the year. And let's have it happen. And I think there's a sense that whoever does get in these wild cards is going to get just annihilated the way that Washington was last year. But I don't know. So sure about that.

I agree. Like, do you want to see that if you're the Toronto Maple Leafs and you're coasting your way into the playoffs and let's say you win the division, do you want to see Igor Shisterkin in the first round? Like this could get really interesting. The Leafs against the potential hot goalie. I'll put it to the Washington Capitals. We did our whole episode on them or half the episode on them last week.

I don't think the team that gets the wild card is nearly as terrified of seeing Washington as they would have been of seeing Florida or Carolina or New Jersey, they're going to go into that feeling like, hey, this could be a team that we could knock off. Yeah, this is not going to be like last year where that first round was basically a walkover, where it was a buy. Yeah, there could easily be a couple six game series between the wild card teams and the division winners in this one. And I think that could be pretty fun, especially to your point, if they are like the right

storylines, right? I think if, you know, I hate to say there's a right and wrong team, but if a team that we, you know what we mean, right? Like it's, yeah, I mean, if Philly gets in, it's like, all right, whatever. Then it, then all bets are off. And I think I'm still taking a gentleman sweep in those. Yes, exactly, exactly. All right.

So that's the east. Before we get out of here, Laz, we're not going to run through and do this whole same exercise in the West because things are a little more clear cut over there. But I did want to spend some time on one major storyline that happened out there this weekend at the end of the Oilers Connects game. Did you see the Connor Garland, McDavid, all this? Oh, I saw it. Yeah.

I mean, you know, who saw it was Connor Garland. He saw it really close up when McDavid gave a two-handed cross-check right into the eyeballs. Yeah, I saw that one. And I will say, I am, I don't think there's any justification for doing that one. Like, I think cross-checked in the head is beyond the pale. And I think they're going to have to suspend McDavid on this one, as they will have to suspend Tyler Myers, who did the same thing in the corner. Yeah. But wow, did Garland get away with the most egregious hold I've.

ever seen. Like he wasn't holding him. He was like bear hugging him for like 15 full seconds. He basically admitted that where he said, hey, the best player we've ever seen. I'm trying to hold onto a game here. I'm just holding on to the guy for dear life, basically. And I understand

McDavid being really, really mad about that. But you still can't just cross-check a dude in the face. Like the retaliation is always the thing that gets called, right? And that's what happened here. And of course, Daniel Nugent Boheman nailed it with his column that, yeah, McDavid deserves a suspension and he will get a suspension.

He has a hearing on Monday. It should be at least two or three games. I mean, it's a really brutal, brutal cross check. But oh my God, what the hell were the referees doing? I don't know what the right call on that is that even, because even a two minute hold at that point would have felt like, okay, cool. Like they give them a two minute penalty for, you know,

15 seconds of game time. But that 15 seconds of game time in flow was actually much more important. Like it's a slam dunk move by Garland to do it and that feels wrong. You know what I mean? Yeah, it's always like you know how at the end of like overtime, like if you're, if it's like 10 seconds and you're penned in your own zone, why wouldn't you just be just you know, butt ending everyone in the face doing whatever you can to not give up that goal and get a shootout because there's no penalty.

Like if you get a penalty with three seconds to go in overtime, you didn't get a penalty. That's not how it works really. You just, there's no carryover to the next game. So you wonder why. more teams don't do this when it's six on five and you're chasing. I mean, if they're not going to call stuff, man, just go out there and Greco-Roman style them. I think there was something about this in our player poll this year where I'm trying to go back and find the article, but I can't find the one.

Oh, here's one of them. There was a suggestion where we asked like, what's a rule you would like to see added? And it was like at the end of a game, if there's like a penalty in the last, you know, within the last two minutes of overtime, the game extends by however long. it would be until that penalty ends. And I thought that was a really good idea to counter this exact thing. And it might make the referees more inclined to not put the whistle away like that at the end of the game. Yeah, that would be interesting too.

But we need to talk a little about Connor McDavid three days ago had a pretty bad elbow that he sent to. I think it was Marcus Johansson, right? Yes. He knew what he was doing on that elbow. That was not an accidental elbow. He chicken winged him in the face. Like we're seeing kind of a nasty dirty side of Connor McDavid lately. Yeah, I think he's taking it into his own hands and gone way too far.

We saw this with Austin Matthew. You made the point about the suspension, like two or three games. I think Matthews got two games for the one that he did Deleen. Very similar play. Matthews was just not going to have it. And he took the two-handed to the head of Dahlene, and you just can't do that. And so I think he has to get at least that. That's the obvious comp.

You're probably giving the exact same suspensions to Myers and McDavid just slam dunks. Like it's clear as day, cross-check to the face. Right. And this is the kind of stuff that, you know, when Mario Lemieux made, his garage league comments all those years ago, this is what they faced on every shift. Like in the 90s, this is what hockey looked like. What Connor Garland did was called back checking back in the 90s. So like, thank God we're not in that space anymore.

But I understand if you're Connor McDavid and guys are taking liberties on you and getting away with it, you're going to start getting fed up. And it's like the old Chris Rock thing, right? It's like, I'm not saying I can donate it, but I understand it. Like, I understand why you're cross checking a dude in the face when he's doing that to you for 15 seconds. Yeah, and it's frustration. I don't think McDavid in sound mind,

in a place of sound mind would have gotten that heated to do that. But in the desperation moments of a game, that's kind of where it boils over. And I do think that was a smart column by Daniel because it is really at the crux. If the refs call that after three seconds of grappling, it's diffused. And it probably goes Vancouver's way even, right? So it's probably well worth it for Garland to try. And I think the league needs to figure out a way to not make that a well-worthed move. as well as obviously, which we all, that's why I think I'm focusing more on the Garland side of this,

is that I think we all know McDavid's getting the suspension and it will be dealt with. But God, do you remember when we all thought Connor McDavid was like a boring hockey robot? Now you got him throwing that, you know, the dig the bleep in, rant in the Amazon show, in the Stanley Cup final, you got an elbow, you got a cross check in the face. This dude showing some fire out there for better or worse. Probably needs to rain in this particular aspect of the fire. Maybe a little more dig in. It may be a little less cross-strict to that.

Carve out a guy's nostril cavities. Yeah, I think so too. All right, let's end on that. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. Please, if you're enjoying the show, leave us a five-star rating and review. Sean, and Frank, you'll have you covered for Wednesday. We'll talk to you soon.