The Athletic Hockey Show - Which teams can win the Stanley Cup without elite goaltending?

Episode Date: January 25, 2024

Hailey, Max and Sean discuss fifteen contending teams that they think can win the Stanley Cup without elite level goaltending, and the teams that they think can only win with elite goaltending.Plus, the crew offer their opinion on the ongoing story involving five members of the 2018 Canadian world junior hockey team who have to surrender to London, Ontario police for their part in a sexual assault from June of 2018, in London Ontario, at a Hockey Canada banquet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show. What's up, everybody? Welcome back to another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. It's Haley Salvian, Max Bolton, and it's Sean Juntili here. He's back. We're back. It's been a while, guys. What's up?

Is that true? Wait, didn't we record last week? Did we? We did. Sean wasn't on the show. Yeah, that was two weeks ago. That was two weeks ago. Oh.

leave this in i don't care wasn't a very good show last week then no no shit i mean speak for yourself i was great i don't know what your problem is what didn't we even talk about last week some really cool important stuff for sure really excited to like you're back did i do that last week i'm just glad i made that i have made that sort of impact on you where you don't even know where i am on a week to basis relative to this really embarrassing. I'm sorry to all the listeners. You should be. Haley doesn't remember talking about the 2018 defense class because she doesn't stay up late to watch West Coast games. That's untrue. I don't sleep. Listen, I don't go to bed. I stay up. Not true. I've actually gotten better at like going to sleep at a reasonable hour lately. Used to be like a big 3 a.m.

girlie and then I wonder why I'm so fatigued in the morning. We didn't, 9 a.m. record today, folks. It seemed like she was bumping up against the deadline. I'm just saying that. It's a tough, tough ask. Don't make it seem like I wake up at like 9.15 every morning.

Because it's later than that. That's untrue. Anyways, I kind of wish that Sean wasn't on the show. I don't wake up after 9 o'clock. Okay. Okay. Whatever. Well, now I'm going to do something that hopefully embarrasses Sean greatly a happy belated birthday Sean Max and I prepared a jingle yeah not like a full birthday song just yeah happy happy birthday and that's it that was it

and Max didn't actually Max just nodded along I'm gonna get he's got the pipes for that I can Max he's ah no no no no no no he's got a great singing voice he just is he just is very judicious and how he deploy it Mm-hmm. Yeah. I only use it to sing DJ College songs of the summer. In Mr. Brightside, as you did. That's right. At ear splitting volume during your weather. There we go. I don't think that's the one I went full, full throat for. I think that was dear Maria, I believe. Yeah, I think that was the one that you guys, you and Allison blew the roof up a joint baby. Yeah, that's a little sick of wedding when you're screaming to all time low.

Hey. I love it. They're going on tour with Avila Vien. Me and Allison are, yeah. I meant all type low, but that's where the honeymoon is next week. Yeah, Max won't be on the show anymore because he's going on tour. I'll still chime in. Yeah.

Yeah. Very weird and unhinged intro to the show. Welcome back, guys. It really does feel like we're back now. Okay, so this week we're going to go through another bigger topic. It's coming up in the second segment. Which teams do we think can win without elite goaltending? Now, we'll have a little conversation about how we define elite goaltending later in the show. Is it an elite goalie, like with the pedigree of their very, very good? Or is it a goalie who's playing very well? Do we call Aiden Hill last year an elite goalie because he was playing well? Or is he just Aiden Hill who played very well? So we can have that conversation as well as the teams that we think can win without that elite number one goalie in the crease later in the show. But first, we do have a little bit of news to get through. Big news.

You would have heard Ian and Julian talk about it on the Wednesday show if you listen to every single day of the athletic hockey show. But we obviously wanted to kind of go over the news as well here on this Thursday. So big news from the ongoing 2018 World Junior scandal. I don't even feel like scandal is an accurate. way to describe this. But we'll just go right to the news. Five players were told to surrender themselves to London, Ontario,

to face sexual assault charges, according to the Globe and Mail yesterday. That's Wednesday morning that report came out. There's a lot that we don't know. There's a lot of dots that people are trying to connect. We are not going to do that on this show. I think it's important to be very judicious in what we say about this. Katie Strang has done a lot of really important reporting on something like this. And she would have been on the show on Wednesday.

So if you want to check that interview out with Katie, you can do so and read all her reporting on the athletic. But the things that we do know, we know that it was five players who were told to surrender. We know that they were given a time period to do so. We don't know what that is. We do know that the London Police Service are exoner. expecting to have a press conference with an update on February 5th. That's Monday, February 5th. We don't know what time that's going to be. We don't know exactly what the update is, but that looks like the timeline that we've been provided from London Police. They're not making

any statements at this time either. We know that there are four players who have taken a leave of absence in the NHL. We know that there's one who has taken a leap of absence from their team in Switzerland and is returning back to Canada. But the players that have been told to surrender are still not public at this time. So we're not going to connect those dots and make those reaches on the show. I hope everyone can understand why. Of course, for context, the pending charges are related to an alleged sexual assault of a woman by several players in a London hotel room on June 2018 following a Hockey Canada Foundation event. Those allegations were made public in a lawsuit filed by the woman against the governing body that is Hockey Canada in April of 2022.

In the complaint filed in Ontario Superior Court, the woman alleged she was assaulted by eight players in a hotel room after the foundation event. Members of Canada's 2018 World Junior Team were among those accused of assaults in the lawsuit. Obviously, this is going to continue to be a developing story in the hockey world and we'll continue to try to keep you posted here on this show as things develop. And again, follow Katie String. Ian Mendez, Dan Robson, have done some work on that story as well. Robin Doolittle from the Globe and Mail, incredible investigative reporter in Canada.

So, you know, follow the true journalists and the investigative reporters on this situation. And we will try to keep you updated on the show as well. All right. Welcome back. It's time to get into our little topic of conversation. today, our hot stove lounge of the day. Hot stove lounge, explain that to me. What's the hot stove lounge?

Where we sit around and we lounge and we talk about a topic. And we all touch stoves. Yeah. Ow, ow, it's hot. Oh, no. And that's what teams do we think can win without elite goaltending? We'll define that a little bit better. dear listener, but first, this was Max Bolton's idea.

I don't know why I said, Max Bolton. What's your middle name? Should I have done the full three? Edward. I tell you my middle name. I'm going to have to tell you my full first name and then you're going to start calling me Maxwell. So, you're right. I would.

I would absolutely call you Maxwell more than I. Yeah. It's like Edward or something. I think it starts with an E. No, it's Scott, my middle name. Maxwell Scott. It was Maxwell. well, Scott Boltman's idea.

So, I don't know, Sean. It's not. Max, can you take us through, like, the genesis of this idea? Yeah, real scientific. I was watching the Red Wings in the Shades. It's an amazing story. I was watching the Red Wings and the Cains, and the Cains held the Red Wings at 12 shots,

and it was somehow still a game. But I left it thinking, yeah, I think they might be able to just keep, doing this because the defense was so smothering that, you know, Antiranta was not good in that game. And I was like, well, honestly, if you give up 12 shots, you can live with that. And I wonder how many teams like that there are this year. We talked on the last episode actually a little bit about, you know, this being a little bit of a, I don't want to call it like a low point for goaltending.

But it's a little, there's a little bit of a supply shortage of the kind of goaltending that I think we typically associate with Stanley Cup. runs, especially among some of the elites. And I was just trying to figure out how many of these teams are there that we think could really do this without a Connor Hellebuck, without an Andrei Vasilevsky. And I think there's maybe more than I was even ballparking at that time. So that's the origin story, very, very thrilling. Yeah. So how do we want to define this?

Like, do we look at, like, when we say, like, elite goaltending? Like, are we just talking about, like, without a Connor Hellebuck, without a, Igor Shisterkin, are we saying without a goalie who is playing elite? I think it has to be without a goalie who's playing elite because I don't think there's that many elite goaltenders anymore. What is this? That's a very funny effect just popped up in our video in our video feed for something Haley did.

They get so spooked. I thought there are balloons coming out of my hands. Anyways, go ahead. If we keep this show going, we can get a soundboard like an old timey sports radio. show and we can get the ludicrous balloons. She's the old E-bombs world. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Yeah. We need more sponsorship.

That's for everybody who was born in the, in the mid-80s or earlier. Why have the sponsored ads dried up? Omaha Steaks. Where are you? Where are you Omaha? I actually think it's Sean's fault for all of the Manscape reads he did. Now they were like, we're,

we're done. Got two manscapes out of it. There aren't that many more. There aren't that many elite goaltenders anymore. They're used to, I mean, as guys have aged out and retired and declined, it becomes a lot easier year over year

to say that there are, you know, here's a guy who you can rely on, no matter what for the next five years. Like, does that, how many of those guys exist, I think is a valid question.

Because guys who we thought, maybe would have stepped into those roles or it started to earn that reputation over the last couple years. Ilia Sorokin hasn't been very good this year. Igor Shisterkin hasn't been very good this year. Wasn't like any great shakes last year, right? On and on the list of guys who you can rely on to be great year over year is like not long. Even if you look at the guys who've been great this year, like, and this is not the takeaway from

their talent because their guys. who've done it at least at some point in the past jacob marks from thatcher demko guys like that who were and debko has been very good this year in the they've been great both those guys have been great last year jacob marks from stunk last year and thatcher demko over the last couple years partially because of health related issues hasn't been very good either like he's hit the level that that he was at the season before last but they're both coming off of pretty so-so seasons in uh in 22 23 so to expect it to work year over year for eight guys or nine guys when you can say,

these are the elite goaltenders, period, in the league. I think that's tough. Yeah, and I agree. Plus, I think, you know, we know that a hot goalie can carry even a mediocre team. So I don't, that's not even really, it's really the question of who can win this cup while actively getting mid-goaltending. Yeah. Like below 9, 10 goaltending in the playoffs, right?

Like, I guess technically Andra Vasselowski or Kana Hellebuk could do that too. But I mean, like, you know, like eight, I'm not talking about Aiden Hill playing really well and been becoming a really good goal in real time for the Golden Knights last year. I'm talking about if you're getting games where your goalie is not winning them or really doing much to help you win them. Okay. You can still win in spite of it. I think it's within basically within the context of the play they've gotten at that position so far this season for the most part. That's the way.

That's the way I'm treated. All right. So let's start with like we can just go through and like pick the teams who want and eliminate them. we don't need to kind of do this in any particular order. So let's just start with the Keynes. I think we agree that Carolina is one of those teams that could be able to do that, right? Like they're what we talked about this last week. They've quietly kind of become the favorite to come out of the east.

And that's despite the fact that, you know, Freddie Anderson has not played since the first month of the season, right? And they're getting, you know, to the goaltending to the point that Auntie Ranta got sent to the American hockey league for a stretch. and Peter Kachekhov has been just okay in spurt. So I think we all agree that the canes can do it. And I think it's pretty obvious why they're very good defensively structured team. Their forwards are defensively responsible.

They don't allow a ton of chances against their underlying numbers. They're always fantastic. They have the second best expected goals against rate in the NHL right now. They allow 2.32 expected goals against per 60 right now. And they don't allow a ton of shots either. their shots against have been around 24, which is the lowest rate in the league. So people don't get through a lot in Carolina. In all situations that their expected goals against per 60 jumps up to number one in the league

because they have a pretty good PK too. Yeah, I should say that was at five on five. It's five on five. I mean, it's kind of the default reading there. Yeah, they let up less shots than anybody. they let up worse quality shots than anybody. And they're doing all this. You mentioned Ranta.

I mean, at this point in the season, he's started 21 games for them. Like Max said, he was a mess, a mess against the wings. 85, out of the 85 goaltenders who've played this season, at least 15 minutes, he is 82nd inexpected goals against, minus 10.5. he's had of Jonas Corpusolo and, you know, Danil Tarasov and Vitechuk, right? Like, like, he is, he is bottom of the barrel, and he's the guy who's,

who's started the vast majority of games while Anderson's been out. So I think with the way that team looks now, with the way they've produced on the power play, especially over the last month, with how Sebastian Aho and Andres Feshnikov have looked since, Veshnakov came back from an oblique injury that maybe bought them some time with the ACL rehab, they look like they have the juice necessary to go with this like structure that we've seen from them over the years to make having poor goaltending stand up, right?

Because this isn't, this isn't these guys being mediocre. This is them being bad. But we've seen them make the run over the last month and it hasn't really mattered. So yeah, I think they're at the top of the list for a reason. And at the end of the day, it's because, you know, even in that game, you have two goals because they only have 12 shots. So that you're still talking about playing the percentages here. If you have an 800, say, a percentage goalie, which is awful, should not be in the NHL. None of the guys we're talking about today are that.

To get the three goals, you still have to get 24 shots on average, right? And I don't see the cane. And I think that's their average, right? Yeah, per 60 is 24. Right. So I don't see the can give it up much more than that. So you know you're going to have to, uh, you know, you're going to have to, uh, you know, score four on them probably to win most nights.

And, you know, obviously anything can happen in a playoff game. You can win them three, two, whatever. But in that kind of game, I like the Kane's odds more times than not. And that's in spite of the goal thing. So they were the, they were obviously the inspiration for the show. Obviously, they're on the list. But there's more. And I think that's what makes it so fascinating is we might see a final four with three of

these teams that we're going to talk about today. Absolutely. Let's stay in the east because the one team that I think is interesting is the Florida Panthers. I think they're a team that could do it the way that they are playing this year. And the team at five on five with a slightly better expected goals again per 60 rate than the Canes is the Panthers. The canes are at 2.32. The Panthers are at 2.31. So I don't know how you guys feel about that. but I think the Panthers don't allow a ton against.

Their goaltending has been, like, their goaltending has been better than the Canes goaltending and sense of, like, they actually have a positive, like, expected and actual goal differential. And I feel like if their goalies kind of turn into a pumpkin, they could still be okay. Am I way off here? Does anyone agree? I think they could be, but I don't think they've had to be yet. Because I think Bobrovsky's been okay, but I do get where you're going with this because they can score easy, right? They have Sam Reinhardt, who's scoring easier than pretty much anyone not named Austin Matthews in the world right now.

And you have Carter Verhaghi who always finds the net. You have Matthew Kachuk, who you know only gets better in the playoffs. Alexander Barkov is the fourth guy I'm mentioning in this segment. So yeah, they absolutely, if Bobrovsky does give them. And he's been known to at times a reason to panic. They are absolutely equipped for it. Because like Haley said, they have the defense, but they also, and this is a difference from the Keynes, you also have so much more confidence in the Panthers to play a shootout game with you. If you need to win a six to five game, that's Florida, you could do that all day.

I think I'm done assuming that Bobrovsky's going to self-destruct at some point over the course of a regular season because I've thought it was going to happen for the last four, right, where you're like, this is the year that he's, or speaking for myself. I've been like, this is the year where it falls apart. This is the year where the contract starts to look terrible. This is the year where, you know, whether it's, whether is Spencer Knight or whether is Chris Jueger before him or whether it's Anthony Stollars at the moment where you're like, they're going to need someone, they're going to need someone to step in and take and, you know, and take it and make a bunch of starts because the shit's going to hit the fan for this guy. It hasn't happened.

He's been fine in the regular season. maybe not Vesna Calibor certainly not, but also not bad enough to lose his job. And then the playoffs roll around and he turns in a good playoff hop, and it happened again last season. So we know they have a guy who's capable of giving them that. I don't think they make that run last year if he wasn't as unbelievable as he was, especially against Boston.

But I also don't think they need him to be at that level to be a relevant, you know, team that plays deep, deep, deep, into the, into the spring because everything else is, is so solid around, around their process and around, around the production at the top of the lineup, like, like, Max said. I guess given that we're talking about, like, teams that aren't getting good, like, do we want to say this is a team that would fit here, but this season probably ineligible because they are clicking on all three cylinders

right now, that Goldstein hasn't been an obstacle for them yet? Yeah, hit it. That's fair. I guess that'd be my contention. So maybe we exempt the Panthers and they're in like some different tier of like they look like, you know, like we're not going to talk about Dallas today because even Ottinger hasn't been great, but we kind of believe Ottinger is great, right? Or what do you think? Yeah, I think so. Like the stars were one of the ones that I kicked into like they're kind of interesting to discuss because I think even when Ottinger's not playing great, like the team still looks good.

So it's kind of like, yeah, like they're fine. They could win. But I think the main, yeah, I guess Florida's maybe unfair because Vibrovsky is there. I picked Ottinger to win the Vezna this season. Like I think I think really highly of the dude clearly. But he's been average. He's been average. He's got a 902 save percentage.

His goal saved above expected is, you know, positive but not by much. Good as the stars are much as there. I think they're like maybe the most interesting team to talk about in this, in this portion of the discussion, honestly, because I love so much about them. I love the production at the top. I love what, you know,

what Matt Duchyne and Wyatt Johnson and guys like that are doing. The, the, the depth that forward is so impressive. Thomas Harley's been really, really good. Kind of gives them the extra element, the extra non-hastened element in the blue line that they've missed, really is going back to when John...

Their blue line's still thin. It's thin, it's thin, but it's, but production-wise, it's not just Hayskin in this year. Like, and they had been missing that really since John Klingberg went into decline a couple years ago. So, like, that is such a deep team. And there's so much to like about it. And it's just ironic to me that right now, it's like, I, not sure, like you, you okay. And they've been really good. That's a top 10 team in the league right now on, on balance, without him being a top 10 goaltender,

which I think is fascinating. Like I think, I don't think it's impossible. By the time this is all said and done, they're the ones that are making this deep run without getting some series from Jake Ottinger where it's like, oh, he saved us. Like a flame series. I think they're capable of it. I don't, I don't think they need Jake Ottinger to beat Calgary Flames round one, 2022 version of himself. Like, I think they're that good. But in order to get out of the central, they have to play Colorado.

Do you think they can beat the Colorado avalanchevathes without J. The abs are the, and I think the abs are the team that, like, are the big ones in this conversation, right? I think that's where Max is going with this, too. But first, yeah, like, can the stars beat the abs? Not if Nathan McKinnon's scoring four goals a night and has a point every day at home. And Nathan and Kel McCar is doing what he's doing. They're going to be a really tough out. Right.

And so to me, it's like, I don't see a path for the stars. The reason that the stars were, I think all three of our preseason cup prediction, was that there were answers at forward at D and in goal. But if you take away that in goal. Yeah. If Ottinger's not, if Ottinger isn't like Calgary Flames round one, Ottinger,

which, and we should say they lost that series, even though Ottinger was unbelievable. That was like the single best goalie performance. I've seen in a long time, like every night from that dude. And, but I think if Ottinger's not like at that level against the abs,

I think most people are going to take the abs. Like if we make it to the playoffs and we're previewing a stars, a first, second, third round, whatever it may be, however that shakes out, like are people going to be picking Dallas over Colorado if Jake Onger's just been okay? But I guess that did make it worth discussing because I was ready to handwave Dallas and put them with Florida. And now I've come around to, they belong in this discussion and I'm out on them being a team. We are.

Very, very acutely aware of Jake Ottingers. like mediocrity this season partially partially because i picked them to win the vizna and then we also have these like checkins that we do with our preseason predictions on the athletic where all of us you know revisit kind of how how we voted and in a slew of categories and i and i'm i see those every month and i'm like oh shit this is uh it's connor hellebuck's award award to lose like my my man my man jake is out of the conversation and that happened that happened relatively early. Max, why are you out on the stars just because of the abs thing? No, no, no, just in this, in this conversation, like being, being one of these

teams that can win without good goal-tending. Because I think goal-tending is a big piece of the puzzle. I'm not out on them for the reason. Goalsies are part of it. He just, he just think, he thinks that Ottinger needs to be good for them, for them, for them to make a dent, which is totally, totally reasonable. He has the worst state percentage of his career right now. He's only a 903, which is league average. Like, we're not saying that Jake Ottinger stinks, but he isn't the Jake Ottinger we've seen from the last years. He already has nine losses this year. He had 11 last year and 62 starts. Yeah. So to me that they're like, like we talk about the Rangers, I think on the last episode and I said, I think, you know, the Rangers still to me strike me as like a

real cup contender. I'd be in the same boat with Dallas. I'm not out on them as teams. Wouldn't shock me if that is the standard. Just in the, if Ottinger's not elite. Right. It's the reason I'm saying that I think they're still contenders is because I believe both of those goalies will give you a much better second half than they gave you first half. But if it doesn't happen, I don't know that I see the path, maybe for either of them, without their elite goalies being elite.

Okay. Let's get to the abs because I think we have seen that this team can roll despite the fact that, like even Giorgev is an all-star, even though he hasn't been very good. So I think that the abs can do well, even if he's not doing well. like they're they're they're they're absolutely in on this conversation right max oh yeah i mean

they have the MVP and uh they maybe have a i mean they have a multi-time as mccar won it twice now or is he still only one at minimum minors everyone all right least i've voted him first for uh for it for it at least twice but uh he is still that dude i guess is where i'm going with this yeah and uh yeah for the same reason that we were just like if you get a not to torture Dallas forever, but if you get a Dallas, Colorado, semi-final matchup, and both goalies are equal,

I think Colorado's going to run them out of the building because they have that much more dynamic firepower. And Dallas has some great players, but you can't trade shots with McKinnon, with McCar, with Rampinen, and expect to survive that very long. And I thought it was fascinating. McKinnon last night scored four goals.

And in my head, I'm expecting to see his ice time, left where it has been like 25, 26 minutes. I think it was like his second lowest ice time since like November or something. That was that was when they really started. That was when Bednar really started playing McCar and McKinnon and in Ranton a lot, a lot. Yeah, he played 20 minutes last night, four goals, five points.

Light work. And he played 1950 in the first week of January. And before that, he was not under 20, 29 since November 15th. He played 28 minutes against Montreal on January 15th. Like, why? What happened in that game? 30 minutes.

Oh, my God, is ice time 30 minutes against the Bruins? Can't do it. Like, you watch the ads and you know that he's on the ice all the time, but I think it is kind of wild to see you forward on, he was playing 30 minutes a game. Do you think it burns them out, Haley? Like, do you think, like, if you ride these guys, is hard in the regular season.

Do you think you can go on a two-month run in April, May? I feel like I would say yes, if it was a different player we were talking about. Like, Nate McKinnon just seems like hockey robot. That's, like, also funny. Like, he's funny hockey robot. Funny hockey robot. You know, like, I don't call him a hockey robot

because he's boring, like Connor McDavid, because McKinnon actually has a personality. But that dude just seems like he's a machine. his programming is to make fun of Peter Bo's hats and that is why I like Nathan McKinnon Whose isn't? Mine's to make fun of Peter Boss drinks That too

Yeah I mean McKinnon Sweet Peter with his Shirley temples He's a workout freak We all know we've all heard the stories about him Which he gets really mad if people ask him about by the way Like whenever he's yelling at Yelling at dudes for eating bagels or whatever that service,

you got it. I didn't really, like, it wasn't that bad. I didn't, like, yell at him because he's, because he is.

He's a, he's a maniac. I don't know if we're, I don't know, we, look, when Nate McKinnon is 34 years old or whatever, we're,

like, he's not going to be able to, to put this up, but he, but the point that he's at in his career right now. He's only 28. That's what I'm saying.

Like, five years from now, like, we've, I've witnessed it firsthand. I watched it last year. Crosby Malkin, those guys, super elite players, you know, when they get into, when they hit 35, if you rely on them heavily

for six weeks in the middle of the season and you have those stretches where it's like, where the minutes go up and whatever, you're going to pay for it on the back end in one way or another, but I don't think we're there with the ads. Like, I think this dude is more than capable of doing it. And Sam goes from McCart and in Renton. And it's not like it's a totally, I mean, he didn't really, he didn't play like 30 minutes a night last year, but it's not like, this all of a sudden shock to the system to be relied on in this way. For Nate McKinnon, like, it's interesting because I've, I've had this conversation with some people, like, not to bring it to women's hockey,

but, like, I'm very curious about how some of the PWHL players are going to handle actually playing, like, 24 games this season, plus playoffs, plus world championships, plus rivalry series. It's not 82 games. It's not that much hockey. but if you're Alex Carpenter and you're playing 24 minutes a night for New York and then you're going to world championships

and then coming back, are you going to be gassed for playoffs in the PWHL because you're not used to playing this much. You're used to just playing at world championships and working out and training. So for like a women's player, yeah, I'm looking at some of the TOI in the PWHL and being like, are they going to be okay

like in the gold medal game or in the postseason here? But for Nate McKinn and I look at that and be like, yeah, I feel like I'm not worried, but I could eat my words on that. No, to Haley's point, his average time on ice, his season is only up 45 seconds. So maybe that changes if the usage keeps up over the next two months. But for now, it's probably overblown. It's not the fact that he's playing these minutes. It's why they need him to play these minutes.

And they need him to play these minutes because Ryan Johansson has 18 points. And Jonathan Dr. ran as 27 points and Ross Colton is 20. No, the only avalanche forwards other than him in, he has 82 points, right in his 64, and a Chushkin has 42. No other forward in Colorado has more than 27. And then there's like another steep drop-off after that.

The issue is that they're not getting production from that second winner of forwards, not that Nate McKinnon has to play 26 minutes a game of every now. Yeah. We got to move on to the next team, but I do just want to say, Nate McKinnon's co-captain at All-Star is Tate McCray, the Canadian pop singer, pop star. And I saw a tweet being like,

can you imagine Nate McKinnon like angrily Googling, like, who is Tate McCray? Like, do we think Nate McKinnon knows who that is? I don't know. Googling Tate McRae, Cole Cylinger, and being horrified at the results. You're like, what did he do? What did he do?

idiot, he fumbled the bag. He really did. I don't, I'm not going to say anything. Let's get to the Oilers, because I think the Oilers are the other team that is really interesting to talk about because we've seen the way that their whole team has been completely torpedoed by bad goaltending. And yet, I think we still would put them in the could win with bad goaltending tier, like despite what we have seen in the beginning of the season. Despite the fact that they're, they could win 15 straight if they beat, who is it tomorrow?

Who is it tonight? Montreal on Thursday night? I might have messed that up. They could win 15 straight. Stuart Skinner's won 12. He's 12 in his last 12 starts. Despite the fact that they are doing all this with good goal tending and they were very bad with very bad goaltending.

We still put the oilers in this. could win with bad goaltending tier? I think so because we didn't say can win with catastrophic goaltending. Right. That's what it was early in the year. And that's why it's important to define things. Yeah. They have rebounded to good goaltending.

But I do think they could be winning, maybe not 14 in a row, but we're talking winning some seven game series. I still think they can do that with like mid to mediocre goaltending. No, it cannot be as bad as it was for the first month of the season. well. Yeah, it doesn't need to be as good as it's been since Jay Woodcroft, fired on November 12th since then, Stu Skinner, fourth in the league and goals saved above expected, top 10 and save percentage. And that is, that's, if you want to break it down even further on this 12-game streak, like he's even more impressive than that, right? I don't think they need

Stu Skinner to be a top five goal tender. How about that? That's probably the best way to put it. Stu Skinner, by a lot of measures, has been a top five goaltender in the league since Jay Woodcroft got fired. And I don't think they need that. I think they need them to be fine. A lot of people asking why Jay Woodcroft was telling Stuart Skinner to be bad. Questionable coaching. He was telling, he was telling Stu Skir to be bad. And he was telling guys they hit the post for however many games.

But he also changed their defensive structure when the team was like, fine. I don't know. I still look at that and it was just like, A, why did you change? change things and B, did you not teach it properly because they were such a dumpster? I got yelled at online for like laughing on the radio about how bad the Oilers were. I was like, this is not funny. Like, why are you laughing? This is a serious business.

Do you want me to cry on the radio about the oilers? Like, I'll do it. It's November hockey. Yeah. The snakes cry. So I think the ones that we all agree on so far, it's the Cains, it's Florida, Colorado, Edmonton. Are those the made ones you wanted to hit Max?

Are those like your, these are the teams that I think can win without elite goaltending? Is there anyone we miss? Like I'm looking at Vegas question mark. Devils? I mean, the devils are kind of given us like a season long no. I don't know.

I want to debate them. They've kind of shown us maybe no. But I still kind of, I'm kind of devil's curious, I guess, of like how far do I think they can go with this? No. Better than being devil's phobic. Oh, my God.

Yeah, I had the devils in the no category, which sucks because I do love them. Do you guys think Vancouver can do it with this? This was, okay, let me hit this. Sean, do you want to take this one? No, they can't. They need, like, I love that team. They're a blast to watch.

And part of the reason they're a blast to watch is that Thatcher Demko is unbelievable. If they want to do this, they need to hit the, they need the recipe to stay the same, which is great play from the goalie, great production from their elite talents. Quinn Hughes, by the way, eight fastest defensemen to reach 400 points in the history of the league, I believe. That happened last night. They need those guys to be great. And they need guys like Neals Hoglander and whoever else to continue. continue being lucky. Basically,

that's it. And that's fine. That's a way to win hockey games. I love watching them. But they need to not stray from whatever formula has gotten them, has gotten them here. And Demko being great is a huge, huge part of it.

So no, I don't think they can do it. Yeah, they have the second best, say, percentage in all situations in the league right now. Their shooting percentage is also the number one. Like,

it's the stupid PDO crap. I'm not saying it. Their safe percentage is good. and so is their shooting for Saran. There is no shame in needing an elite goaltender to win. Right. Like he's part of the team. He's part of the team.

It's fine. But if, we're at, we're at three then. So we got the three. We're a no undevals. We could, I'm softening. I see why you guys were saying Florida, because even though they haven't needed, like they haven't put themselves in that conversation to this point this year.

I do think Florida would count in this. Like if Bobrovsky wasn't playing above ever. I'm just, I'm just really impressed with how they're playing in general. I think that's, I think that's kind of what it is. Like, it's a testament.

Put the Panthers in the conversation. Two quick hits because Max has to go to Red Wings practice. So I have to keep things on the rails. Jets, are we saying no? I'm saying no. Kings? I'll hear the argument.

Mm-mm. Kings, kings, they were, they've been, They've been so, and we're not talking about Camp Talbot or whoever else. And, you know, Phoenix Copley's hurt and blah, blah. The skaters have been bad for weeks. And Drew Dowdy just. And they've fallen off in an aggressive way. So I think, I think they probably need something special.

Yeah, their coach. I don't think they can do it without one of those guys getting hot. Their coach and Drew Dowdy ripped the team yesterday. So things are getting weird in L.A., but I will say, like, that is a strong, defensive team, like they are very, like, hard to play against. So if they can get it on the rails, I don't think they need Cam Talbot to be amazing to do well. But I also just don't see the Kings as being a team that wins a Stanley Cup this year either. That's kind of my, like, eliminating factor.

They're certainly not equipped to get it done with bad goaltending. I think that's, I think, okay. So no Kings. And they've only scored more than three goals one time. since the new, since the turning goal. You need your goalie to have like a, 2.5 goals against average.

Yeah, you need, you need, I think above average, or at least average, but above average, goaltending there. What it seems like we've concluded is you either need to be one of the two or three best defensive teams in the NHL or have game breakers, capital G, game breakers, plural to do this. And I think that leaves,

with those four teams. Yeah. Because we're saying no to the Kings. Yep. No to the Canucks. No to the devils. We said no Rangers. Lightning or no if Vasilevsky's not great.

Like they know the lightning. The last two would be Vegas and the Bruins. Bruins are a no. I think Swamen and Olmark are such a huge part. Remember when everyone dumped on me for picking Jeremy Swamen in that draft and he's been very good this year? I just want everyone. No, no, it was heading into this year. It's good drafting.

That was good value. Asholes, but still no to know the Bruins. Well, I think because they have been so central to their success, like they're a good defensive team, so I grant that. And they do have like a couple of game breakers in Marchand and Passernak. I'd hear the argument, but I do think their goalies are maybe their biggest overall strength, is it as a tandem as having those two guys the reigning viz in the winner and a guy who could be in the mix for it this year yeah in the best eight percentage in the nchal those guys

those guys mitigate the loss of bursuron right that's just that's just the way it goes they're they're they're a solid defensive team right and they're they're above average and goals saved up above expected for or expected goals against rather so like the process seems like it's there Montgomery is a really good he's he's he's he's he's he's he's the right guy for that job. But if we're talking about winning cups, the trump card for them is those two guys. Vegas is kind of interesting, though.

They're very Florida-ish and that they are getting good goaltending, but I'm not ready to say that they wouldn't be able to win it if Aden Hill went full pumpkin. Sure. I wonder how long he'd have to do it before we just accept it as a matter of course that he's, that he's like just good. Well, his sample size last year was so small that it was hard. to be able to do that, like, in the playoffs. It was like this guy, like when they were talking about like, yeah, he just won them

a Stanley Cup, but should he get a contract? Should he be the number one last year? Like he, I think at one point, like, the most games he'd started in a season was like 19 or something. They've just had a very, they've had a very bizarre season just overall the, yeah, Vegas. Like, on that, like they're on balance, they're good, but they're getting really lucky at the start of it. Now they're getting really unlucky.

It's been strange. With a healthy Jack Eichel, I think. I think of a yes on Vegas. Okay. And it was 22. Sorry, before last season, he hadn't started more than 22 games. My bad. He's only 27.

I'm not, I'm not out on the idea that Alex Lion could be this guy. Alex Lion or Aiden Hill? Sorry, Aiden Hill. Cool. Okay, so the ones that we have for sure are the Cains, the Panthers, the Avs, and the Wellers. Those are our four teams that we think could win without elite goaltending. We all agree? I'm a Vegas in there.

Okay. Let's see. Okay. So overall. I'm putting asterix on Vegas because they've been winning with good goal. That's the Florida conversation though. If we're including Florida,

we include Vegas. Fine. Fine. Fine. Uh, no Toronto Maple Leafs. No. They need good goaltending to win,

I think. Yeah. Even though they have capital G game breakers in Austin Matthews, nobody's scoring like them. The question is can the Leafs even win with good news? I thought we were limiting the conversation of serious contenders, but that's okay. It's hard because we've never seen them do anything in the playoffs. And like you can blame a factor of different,

or like a host of different factors. But they need capital G game breakers who are going to show up. They've tried to win with mediocre goaltending. It hasn't worked. Yeah. For all their goaltending issues this year, it wasn't the goalie who disappeared. in round two.

I think who was it? I think David Camp, I think David Camp had more points than like Mitch Marner in the second out of the playoffs last year. Anyways, it's not a diss to not be on this list. Mitch is so good.

Mitch is so good defensively. Maybe he should try and play a goalie. Solve some problems for them. I still listen, with respect, Mitch Marner getting Selky votes over like Jordan's stall last year was wild to me. I know.

he is but an 1B player just asking anybody Max what were you saying we just both got Max off to dump on the leaves and now our listenership is I was producer Jeff just made a very funny joke in the comments

I'm not going to read out of it Max what was your what was your point we got to get out of here just it's not like that's not like we're saying these are the four best teams in the league it's like it's an insult to not be on this list. It's not like a team that isn't on this list can't be better than a team that is. But it's a specific kind of curiosity. I don't know. Maybe it's maybe it's, maybe it goes without saying. But I just like as we're talking about the Leafs, I'm anticipating all of our mentions

getting burned to the ground in the next three hours. But I don't think Leafs fans think the Leafs are an elite team this year. They are worse than they were last year. That is a, that is like objectively true. Yeah. In my opinion. I just want, you know, especially if we end up leaving Florida and Vegas, then clearly this is not just like our list of cup favorites. It's just the teams that could do something that we don't typically think about teams doing, which is going on a deep run without a hot goalie. And I think all of those teams, whether we're doing, whether we're calling it three,

four, or five are capable of doing that. And it's, I don't know, I'm very interested to see how many of them can actually do it. Totally. And I think that like the thing that's funny about this conversation, is like goalies are part of the team too. So we're not knocking the Jets or the Canucks for having elite goaltending like. Thatcher Demko has been unbelievable and that is great for Vancouver. There's a lot to like about the Canucks. Like do we think that the Canucks could win a Stanley Cup with Thatcher Dempco wasn't around? Like probably not. I'm sorry. But that's like part of good

drafting and evaluation and like prospect development is having an elite goalie. So we're not knocking them for it. It's just not the conversation. Nothing wrong with choosing to build around around those guys. I think that's what we've in Winnipeg. Do you think the Hurricanes would want to have Thatcher Demko on their team? Absolutely. Like, you know, so. I think they would. Mm-hmm. Uh, all right.

It's 1002. Sorry, Max. You're two minutes late. If you live in the Detroit area and you see a maroon Subaru, Subaru, I don't know what car max drives. A Honda Civic. There's neither of those. Zooten down the highway. Be careful what you say about marooned Subaru.

Watch your tongue. If you see a black Hyundai-A-Lantra with an Ontario license plate, speeding down the interstate in Detroit, it's Max Bolton going to practice. Officer, it's my fault. Thanks, guys. That was fun. Good idea, Max. But if a bunch of Canucks and Leaves fans start crapping on us, it is indeed your fault. Only one of those is... I did have a sneaking suspicion. That's why. you were leading off with it being my idea just in case things went south. If you think this was stupid, call Maxwell Scott Bolman at 1-2-3 Boogie Woogie Avenue.

Back to the boogies, huh? Just read the ad so Max can leave. Come on. Oh, right. That's my job. Thanks, everyone, for listening to the Athletic Coffee Show. Please leave us a five-star rating and review. Who put that in the copy. Why do I have to say that every week? Please, please leave us a five-star rating and review. And also follow us on YouTube at YouTube.com slash

at the athletic hockey show. Producer Danielle puts a lot of shorts. She puts clips from the show. You want to see me freak out from like the birthday balloons that popped up? Surprisingly not when we were singing a birthday jingle for Sean. You can watch that on YouTube. Shout up producer Danielle.

And right now we want to remind you that you can get a one-year subscription to the Athletic for $2 a month when you visit theathletic.com slash hockey show, no Friday prospect series this week. So the next episode of the athletic hockey show happens Monday with Ian Mendez and Mark Lazarus. Thanks, everyone.