The Athletic Hockey Show - Which Thanksgiving bubble teams will actually make the playoffs?

Episode Date: December 1, 2025

Every hockey fan knows that teams in playoff position at Thanksgiving usually stay in and teams outside playoff position at Thanksgiving usually stay out. In fact, nearly 80 percent of playoff teams at Thanksgiving actually make it to the postseason. And so, on today’s episode, the guys break down both the Eastern and Western Conference playoff pictures and try to figure out which bubble teams are destined to defy the odds and which ones will become just another statistic. Plus, The Athletic’s own Julian McKenzie joins the conversation about the Eastern Conference playoff race and closes out the show discussing his upcoming book, “Black Aces: Essential Stories from Hockey's Black Trailblazers”. Hosts: Max Bultman and Mark LazerusWith: Jesse Granger and Julian McKenzieExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris FlanneryPre-order “Black Aces: Essential Stories from Hockey's Black Trailblazers”: https://www.triumphbooks.com/black-aces-products-9781637278628.phpWatch full episodes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theathletichockeyshowJoin our Discord Server: https://discord.gg/VTm9VjkFSubscribe to The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show. Hey, everybody, Max Bolbin here alongside Mark Lazarus and Jesse Granger for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. We're going to be talking about the playoff pictures in each conference today. Obviously, everyone is familiar with the Thanksgiving rule. We're a couple days after that, but I think it's going to be an interesting rule to assess this year because there is so much parody, particularly in the East. Julian McKenzie going to join us a little bit later on. He's going to talk about his upcoming book, Black Aces. but let's start guys on the playoff pictures.

And I want to start in the West because at least in the West, there are some teams on the bottom who look like they're not going to be in it. We're going to talk about the East in a little bit and almost nobody is out of it there yet. The West is fascinating to me because there's a few teams on the bottom and there's one team up top that looks like they have the potential to steamroll everybody, Jesse, and that's Colorado. Yeah, I mean, they're the best team in hockey and it's not close. And I can't remember the last time, like Florida has been dominating. in a way we haven't seen, but I never felt like the gap between Florida and the rest of the league was as wide as it.

And even like the Boston team that broke, that broke Tampa's record and that Tampa team, I don't remember those teams kicking the living crap out of everyone the way the Colorado Avalanche are this season. I mean, they are, I think they're like plus 42 goal differential and the next closest is like 16. Plus 48. 48. Yeah, they've kicked someone out of someone else since I saw that stat. And then you look at the underlying numbers. It's like, okay, well, maybe they're just running hot.

Nope. The underlying numbers, if anything, they're like just as dominant. They're like a 60% expected goal share. This team is just wrecking everyone they play. They came to Vegas last week and they beat the Golden Knights the way they do everyone. And I remember a bunch of fans saying, man, these day games, these afternoon games are just really rough for the Golden Knights. It's like, I think they could play this game at any time you choose. and the Colorado Avalanche are going to kick your butt

because that's what they do. The Minnesota Wilder are like 11 and 1 in the month of November and they're still nine points out. The Dallas Stars are the second best team in the league and they're not even in the same zip code as the avalanche. It's really, I mean, we knew the Central was going to be really good and we knew the avalanche always could be this good. We saw it a few years ago when they won the Stanley Cup

and they kind of slid back a little bit to like really good instead of great. They are on another planet right now. This is like the Bruins a few years ago. This is the Blackhawks in 2013. We rarely see teams. this utterly dominant in the NHL. They have one regulation loss. And here's what's funny to me.

They do have six OT losses, right? And, you know, Sean McHenoo loves to rail against the loser point. You know, there was a great article actually had recently about how the hockey gods seem to reward teams that don't get the loser point. I think everyone should go check that out. But this is fascinating to me. So the Avalanche have six OT losses, right? If they had lost all those games in regulation, if they hadn't gotten to overtime in those

games, they would still have the second most points in the NAT. So this team is an absolute wagon right now. Nathan McKinnon looks like the clear front runner for the heart. I think Kel McCar is always at least one of the top two or three candidates for the Norris. And what's funny is like you can just kind of keep going. I'd be like, well, I'd be, Jared Bednar, usually the coach of the year is going to go to the coach that turns around a bad team. But I think if you go through the whole year on this pace and you only lose like, I mean, at this point, the pace would be losing like three games in regulation the whole year. I don't think that's going to happen.

But if you have like 12 regulation losses in the whole year, I think you have to give him serious consideration. So the avalanche, to me, are in a tier of their own. The question is how far back are the Dallas stars from that mark? Because they're not that far. You know, you mentioned like different zip code. They're four points back. They're not that far off in the standings. It just doesn't feel like the dominance is at the same level.

Well, that's the thing. And the Dallas stars are really, really good. They are, in my mind, clearly the second best team league. Jason Robertson's playing his way onto Team USA. I don't know how you keep them out at this point. They're playing so well, and they're doing it with Jake Ottinger being kind of mediocre, right? So, like, you could look at it as always,

do you have a problem? Is this a problem that Jake Ottinger is struggling? Or do you think, man, how good can this team be once Jake Ottinger gets his stuff together, which you just kind of assume he will? But even if he does, I don't know how you keep up with Colorado. Like, these two teams are so much better. And then we really shouldn't sleep on Minnesota. They have been fabulous lately.

Just running rough shots. through the league. The three best teams in the NHL right now might all be in the same division. I think they are. That's a hot take. That's a hot take to put minutes. We were just talking about them in the concern segment with Shana like two weeks ago. Things change quickly in this business, man. They're 11, 1 and 1 this month. When the entire NHL is tied with each other, all 32 teams, which is essentially what we've got right now, it doesn't take much for the landscape to change drastically. I mean, I totally agree with everything you said about Dallas. And, and like, you said, with Ottinger, you can look at it two different ways. I think considering his age,

considering the level of goal he is, it would be shocking if he doesn't play better than he has. And he hasn't been bad. He's still been positive goals saved above expected. It's not as if he's going through like a rut that's hurting them, but he hasn't been, I thought this was going to be his Vesna year. I don't know if I would have picked him, but it's like if there's a year, Jake Ottinger's going to win the Vesina with that team, with his age, everything lining up. I thought this was going to be the Vesna year. That clearly isn't happening. I mean, There's still a lot of hockey to be played, but he's not even really in the conversation because he hasn't been great. And yet, despite that, and despite the fact that Miko Ranton is killing someone every other night,

this team is really good. Like, we undersell them because Colorado's in their division and they are on another level right now. But if Colorado didn't exist, we'd all be saying, we'd be saying most of the same things about the Dallas stars. Sell me on the wild belonging in the same tier as the stars last for the playoffs. I mean, they're just running rough shot over everybody. Like I said, they just came through Chicago here. To me, and Jesse can speak, you know, more eloquently on this than me, but the goaltending is phenomenal.

I mean, Yesper Wollstead has been just shutting guys out left and right. Philip Gusseson is his usual steady self. Kareil Kaprizov is looking like Kareil Kaprizov again. Like the pressure he is under with that contract doesn't seem to be bugging him. Matt Boldie, who when we talked about the wild struggling a couple of weeks ago, it kind of started with Matt Boldie being very ordinary. He's been extraordinary now. You know, again, a team USA fixture all of a sudden again.

There's just a lot to like about this team and the way they're playing. They're very cohesive. There's not a lot of superstars beyond those two guys, but everyone's kind of bought in and playing their role. And it's just remarkable how far they've come in such a short amount of time from Panic City to cruise control. You will not find a bigger Matt Boldy fan than me. You may not find a bigger Joel Erick fan than me.

I really believe in both of those players. My question is when you get this kind of goal tending, I'm always a little bit. Not that there's anything against it. It's just, I think it makes me question whether you can keep this up when it's on the back of such. Like, no one is going to have as good a two-week span for the rest of the season as Yesper Walsh State has had over the last two weeks.

Am I wrong in saying that, Jesse? Well, I mean, Yaroslav Ascarov and San Jose would have something to say about it because he's having a pretty good month. But I agree with you that he's been on absolute fire. And like, so I just finished my goalie tandem power rankings that came out this morning. And I think the team that will surprise the ranking that will surprise people the most of all of them is I've got Minnesota number two. When you think of the elite goalies in the league, you don't generally think of the wild goalies, but they've been awesome. I think Philip Gustafson is one of the most underrated goalies in the league and now with Walstead's emergence.

I mean, this is the way Macklin Sellebrini and Leo Carlson and Connor Bedard are coming out, like this is their coming out party this season. to me, as the goalie guy, I view Yesper Walsett almost exactly in the same light in that this is an elite prospect of a goalie who has all the pedigree and has been amongst the best at his age since he was like down to when he was like five years old. This has been one of the best goalies in the world at his age group. And now he did have a disappointing season in the HL. And there was a lot of scrutiny around him. The thing with the HL is it's a mess. And if you're a goalie who relies on, on Reeds, it's tough down there because you're so used to when you're an elite player, you're playing with the best of your age group your whole life. These guys are making the plays

they want to make. Then you get to the HL and it's just like a slosh and the pox are just flying at you from random areas. I don't think. You see that with forwards too because it's a dump and chase league and high, high skill guys don't succeed in a dump and chase league. It's not a good analog for the NHL a lot of times. Right. And for a goalie, specifically one who relies on reads like Yesper Wallstead. And I, these, this is an elite goalie who is now looking the part. It is like this. This isn't to me a flash in the pan. Oh, look at this. We see it every year. Some young goal, like Alex Lyon in Buffalo had an amazing two weeks stretch to start the season. Nobody really thought it was going to last and it really hasn't. Wollstead, I feel differently,

because of his pedigree, because of how talented he is. And I think maybe we're finally seeing it. And I just love this tandem together. It's two Swedes. They're both big. They play similar styles in that they aren't making saves. They're making blocks. They get into the right position. They position their body. And then you shoot the puck into them because you have no choice. And there's no net to shoot at. And I think when you look at the stats, that kind of bears out. There's only five goalies in the league with multiple shutouts this year. Two of them play for the Minnesota Wild. And a shutout is harder to get than a one goal game because it's like all you need is one mistake. Well, these guys don't make mistakes. They play the type of the style of goaltending that can

be amazing for a long stretch when they're on because they're not having to stab pucks out of the air with their gloves. They're not having to react to shots. They're just in the right spot and then you shoot the puck into them. So the style, the pedigree, everything about this. To me, I expect the Minnesota wild to have the best, one of the best, if not the best, goaltending in the entire NHL from here out. And they might. It's just that like when I look at Walsstead, the 938 save percentage, right? Like that's still 20 to 25 points higher than Andrei Vasilevsky, Connor He might be one of the better goalies in the league, but he's probably going to settle into like a 9-20 over a longer span, I think.

And when you're winning a lot of one-year-old games like they are, that's, I think, where my hesitation comes in. But they may belong there. Like, it's not that I'm saying they're not going to make the playoffs or anything like that. I'm just kind of questioning the Colorado and the Dallas neighborhood as opposed to the next group of teams I want to talk about, which is really the three Pacific Seeds, Vegas, L.A. and Anaheim. To me, my question, I guess, to start off, Jesse, is what's the bigger surprise, that Vegas is down in this tier and not with Dallas and Colorado, or that Anaheim in L.A. are up with Vegas.

Well, I think Anaheim is the biggest surprise, just because we didn't know if that team was going to take this step, and they clearly have. Like, I am fully bought in on Anaheim as being a playoff team. Contender, I'm still a little skeptical, but in terms of being a playoff team, they're there. And they're not just the skill. They're not just the kids. Chris Kreider is scoring ugly goals in front of the net. He's doing everything. The Rangers wish they had right now. The back end, Radco Gudis is a physical presence on there. Even the young kids, Carlson is a big kid. He's winning wall battles. That team can play winning hockey in the time of

year you need to win hockey games to make the playoffs. I am fully sold on Anaheim. And to me, that's a huge surprise. We've seen the talent there, but there are plenty of other teams that we've seen the town, Buffalo Sabres, plenty of talent, and we're expecting it every year and it just never happens. And then all of a sudden for it to just come together like this, I think they're the best team in the Pacific. They played the Golden Knights twice. They've been the better team in both games throughout. It's like the Golden Knights taking a step back is a little bit of surprise, but not, I'm not nearly a surprise about that as I am with the step the Anaheim Ducks have taken. I want to see what the Anaheim Ducks, like they're going to make the playoffs. I think that's pretty

clear. They have, they have a style that plays in the regular season. I'm wondering, if they have a style that plays in the playoffs because they make a lot of mistakes. They give up a lot of odd man rushes the other way. They do not play a tight, structured style. And Joel Quenville is a kind of coach who's, it's interesting watching him embrace this. He's embracing the madness with the ducks and with these young players in particular. But in the playoffs, you know, is Joel Quenville going to be able to, like, he's the all-time great line matcher in the playoffs?

Is he going to be able to line match his way to success in playoff style hockey? He's an all-time great closer. Can this team close out games? and close-out series. I mean, I'm already past the is this a playoff team. My question is, are the Anaheim Ducks a contender? That's where I'm having a little trouble, you know, calling them that because the goaltending is not as good as we thought it was going to be.

And the team structure is a mess. They are fun. I love watching them play. But, you know, just here on Sunday afternoon, they go up 3-0 against the Blackhawks and lose 5-3 to a team that had just lost five in a row. This team is all over the place. They are pure chaos. Great in the regular season.

I don't know if that's going to transfer into the playoff. I'm with you. I think this tier to me is all going to make it most likely, right? I mean, LA, I think there was a flash early this season where you go, oh, are they, have a lot of old defensemen. Are they going to kind of hit a cliff if Fonsei Kopitar can't will them there? I think they've really leveled off. Corey Perry has been, we talked about it last episode, a fantastic addition there. They seem pretty, pretty solid. And so I feel pretty comfortable in all three of those teams that they're going to make it, whether it's in a wild card or not. Again, I think we all think Edmonton is coming, and we're going to get to that in a

minute. I think the teams that, you know, whereas with the east, there's this wide bubble. To me, the bubble in the West is pretty simple. It's the two teams that are on it right now, Seattle and Utah, against everybody else. And when you look at the Cracken in particular, like, it's the worst expected goal share in hockey. Like, that's a team that is screaming, like, okay, we're going to be one of the two teams statistically, right? I think it's just about 80 percent, might be 77, I believe, of the teams that are in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving Day. And again, we're doing this a couple of days after Thanksgiving, tend to make the playoffs, right?

So that would say across the league, three or four teams that are in it right now likely won't be. Seattle is number one on my list of teams that are going to fall out of that. I agree. I mean, they play that kind of really slow, grinded out style that, that it's John Tortorella hockey where they're going to get a lot of points and they're going to stay on that bubble all year. They're not going to just completely fade off.

I think it was Oliver Moore with the Blackhawks when we were in Seattle. And this is like his first game of the year and is a young guy, and he's like, yeah, they don't do a whole lot out there. Like, it's not, it's easy to make fun of the Seattle cracking because they play such boring hockey. They're such a boring coach. Everything about it is boring. But it grinds out points.

They're going to be there all season long, but I'm with you. It's hard to imagine that team actually making the plus to me. It's like, it's like if you go down to San Jose. San Jose in Seattle, analytically are atrocious teams. But San Jose has some high, high-end talent in Celebrini and Smith and some of these guys. And they've got a goalie, Yaroslav Ascarov, who is. just outperforming metrics to a ridiculous level. He is a goal saved above expected machine

because he's playing behind a team behind which you should give up 10 goals a game. I don't know if he could do that all year long, but I trust that almost as much more than I trust Seattle being able to grind their way to 95 points. It sucks for the podcast to just unanimously agree like this, but I could not believe in the Seattle crack in less. Like if I tried, if I tried to believe in them less,

I couldn't do it. I do not believe in that team. Not a shred of me believes in. that team. And to Mark's point about the goal stage 12 expected for Ascarov, I was looking at the numbers the other day, and it is like hilarious. And you have to play behind a bad defense to be able to rack them up the way he has. Like, just for

context, the leaders in the entire league for the whole season are right around 20 goals saved above expected. That's Swainman and Spencer Knight. Ascarov had 18 and a half just in November. Goalsade's about expected. The San Jose sharks are absolutely insane number. The sharks are a very, very, very bad team. But they've got such high-end skill on the back end and up front that they can

kind of outperform that sometimes. But they are, that is a bad hockey team. All right. Well, how about the other bubble team here than Utah? Do we have any more? I certainly have more than I have in Seattle. Like Utah was a team coming into a year that I expect to be in a playoff spot. The rise of Minnesota, I think is tough for Utah because you also have Winnipeg in that division that's going to be coming for them or a wildcard spot. But Utah is similar, like a lot of young talent. I think they have enough veterans too. Like, maybe goaltending is kind of the tiebreaker there that works against them, Jesse. But the mammoth, I think, have a pretty strong case here as a team that we should be talking about having a chance at the right side of the bubble.

Yeah, they've got a lot more game breaking type players than like Seattle, for example. Like I was just there watching the Golden Knights play them and they put it on Vegas pretty big. Cooley is just unbelievable. Like to me, that's the difference is they're kind of the, we just talked about San Jose. being like an awful team, but they've got the high, high end skill. And then Seattle's kind of the opposite. They've got a bunch of grinded out players, like solid players, but not any like elite guys. I think Utah's sort of the mix between the two. Like they've got the high end skill, but they also have some like, it's a deep team that can roll four lines at you. And Karel Vamelka

and net, like I don't, I wouldn't call it a strength, but I don't think he is a major weakness. Like I think that's he's a solid goalie who's, they're asking a lot from him as the problem. is there, Utah is using Vamelka the way Tampa Bay uses Vasilevsky and the way Winnipeg uses Connor Hellebuck. And he's just not that tier of goalie. So I do think that maybe he gets worn down as the season goes on. But from what I've seen now, he's very good. And the only, like you said, the problem with believing in Utah is it means that Edmonton and Winnipeg, one of those two isn't going to make it. Right. And I don't think that at all. Like, I believe in Winnipeg and Edmonton far more. Even with Hellebuck out, like he's eventually

going to come back. I believe in Edmonton. and Winnipeg way more than I believe in Utah. Yeah, I mean, I've been in Utah's corner since their last year in Arizona. I've been picking them to make playoffs. And I thought we were finally seeing them take that leap early on this year. But they've kind of settled back into that like 10th place kind of team where like they're going to be in the mix. But it is. It's really hard to see them holding off Edmonton and Winnipeg, two more proven teams like that for the over the next 60-some odd games.

It just seems like it's a little too much to ask right now. And actually, you know what? I need to correct myself because I said Utah was really. team that's in there. After Chicago's Sunday night win over Anaheim, Chicago was actually in that spot now. So let's talk about the Blackhawks. Yeah, that's after a five-game losing streak where, you know, things were starting to come to, hey, we talked about how the Avalanche had been destroying everybody. Blackhawks played them a few days ago and it was a one-nothing game. They played really, really well against the Avalanche. Connor Bedard's line was matching up. Jeff Blaschel

just threw Bedard out there against Nathan McKinnon, and they played him to a standstill. Badard had four more points today. He's second in the league in scoring now. He's ahead of He's tied with Celabrini with one fewer game played. He might be the league MVP right now. If the Blackhawks somehow miraculously do get into the playoffs, this is a Taylor Hall MVP. It's one guy, you know, Spencer Knight's been amazing and a lot of guys have been really, really good.

But Connor Bedard is the reason they're here. He is taking over games. Today was his, or Sunday was his 11th multi-point game in 25 games. He is exploding. He hasn't had more than one game without a point in a row all season. He is consistent. He's playing good defense. He's winning 50% of his faceoffs.

Every single thing people were saying about Connor Bredard that he was bad at, he's now pretty good at. And he's scoring in bunches. So like right now, if the Blackhawks are in the playoffs and at this moment that we're having this conversation, they are, he's your MVP. But to Jesse's point, if for them to get in or for Utah to get in, it's going to mean one of Edmonton or Winnipeg doesn't. And I think all three of us believe in both of those teams still.

Jesse, let's start here. where does Edmonton rank in your goalie tandem rankings? Edmonton fans, close your ears. They are second to last right now. I couldn't put them last because the St. Louis Blues goaltending has been an absolute train wreck. They can't stop anything right now. And actually, what's funny is, like, talent-wise, I actually believe in both the Blues goalies, but I couldn't bring myself to put him anywhere but last with how bad the stats are.

But one spot above them is the Edmonton Oilers. And the difference between those two teams, is the Edmonton Oilers have Connor McDavid and Leon Drysidal and are expecting to win a Stanley Cup this year. And they're being let down by the goalies. And yet the GM seems totally fine with that. It seems like he's just cool with rolling Calvin Pickard out every three games and Stuart Skinner's my guy. And we're not going to make a trade just to make one. Even though the players aren't any good that we're currently playing, it's very, very strange. Stuart Skinner will have the game here or there where he's awesome because he's big guy. So when he's on his game, there's not much to shoot at. And he had that game the other night.

Got a shot out against Seattle, a team we just talked about can't score anything. Maybe that'll quiet the talk a little bit, but not by much because I think they're dead last and safe percentage. And they're just, they're not good enough to win the Stanley Cup with Connor McDavid. And you've got to make a move to give yourself a chance, the chance that another goalie is good enough. We know these two aren't. I agree. But, But again, when it comes down to it, it'd be really cool if Utah made the playoffs, if San Jose made the playoffs, if Chicago made the playoffs. I don't think any of the three of us actually think they will.

I think we all think Edmonton is going to course because they're, I mean, they're right outside the bubble. They're right there. It's not like they have a huge mountain to climb. And Winnipeg, same thing. When Connor Hellabuck comes back, I'm sure they'll just have like a big February or something or March and blow up and win a bunch of games. Everything will be fine. The status quo will be largely maintained.

And Anaheim will be really our only gatecratcher because these teams are on the verge, which is cool, but it usually takes another year or two before they really crash the party for good. If Edmonton didn't do this every year, I don't think we'd have this strong of a belief. It's like, I've seen this story before. They always suck the first two months of the year. Like, they do this every year. And then every year, by the end of the season, they're one of the best teams and we expect them to go deep in the playoffs. So like, if we didn't have all those prior experiences, I don't think our confidence level in Edmonton would be as high as it is right now.

Well, we'll have the same conversation. I'm sure when we talk about the Florida Panthers, they don't. care about the regular season because they know better. They know that none of this matters. They just have to get in. They know they're good enough to get in. And they know how to find that switch on the wall in April when it's time to flip it. Yeah, I think my biggest question about the oilers is whether their surge is going to require a coaching change to start some like 15 games and 15 wins out of 17 games streak or if they're going to be able to get it done with Chris Knoblock. Like, that's really my only question because it's coming. It's just a matter of Chris Knoblock did that two years

ago, right? I mean, this is exactly. A hundred percent. So Winnipeg, I will say, I have a little more uncertainty on just because Connor Hellebuck is the league MVP for a reason. They've lost four of their last five, right? Like, this is a team that relies heavily on him. He's not going to be out forever, but they could dig themselves into a hole that's hard to get out of, Jesse.

For sure. And the underlying metrics for Winnipeg are bad. Like they, when you look at like expected goal share, high danger chance share, all these numbers that typically help predict the future more than just the scores on the score sheet. None of those are very good for Winnipeg. And to be honest, they weren't great last year. And that's why Connor Hellebuck was the Hart Trophy winner, because he was covering

up a lot of warts on this team. All of a sudden, he's gone. You see those warts show up a lot more when it's not him back there. And the question is, okay, when he comes back, he's going to do what he does. He's going to make up for a lot of those errors. But is it like, like you were saying with Anaheim, like even if Winnipeg makes the playoffs, if they're able to eke in, are they good enough to make a run and or are or is Connor Hellebuck carrying this is one of the things we've never really talked about with the Connor Hellebuck playoffs is what if he's just dragging this team that doesn't belong to the playoffs there every year and then he gets whooped on by the real good by the by the real playoff teams and then we all blame him for it like there there is that chance that he's just

dragging this team to the playoffs every year and and maybe without him for a month and a half we'll actually get to see what this team looks like without a superstar our goalie behind it, and maybe it changes the narrative a little. I know we didn't spend a whole lot of time on the blues, the Canucks, the Flames, the Predators. The blues, to their credit, have similar to Edmonton a couple times done this, dug themselves a really deep hole and found a way out of it. I'm going to assume, unless one of you guys tells me otherwise, none of us see that coming this time around.

No, the West, the West is very different than the East. We'll talk about how the parody in the East is insane. The West is like a normal season, right? You have a couple of great teams, and you have a handful of really bad teams. and the flames are really bad, the predators are really bad, the Canucks are really bad, and the blues are really bad. I don't think anyone thinks that they're going to really make any kind of realistic threat. Yeah, so let's cherish this neat and tidy feeling we have right now,

where we feel like we have a good handle on the bubble and some consensus on who's coming out of it. Now we're going to take a break, and we come back. We're going to have Julian McKenzie, and it's going to be chaos because the East is one big time. We'll be right back. All right, we are back and we are joined now by Julian McKenzie. Julian has a book coming out this February called Black Aces Essential Stories from Hockey's Black Trailblazers. Excited to talk about that in a little bit. But first, we're talking about the Eastern Conference.

And Julian, before you got here, we were talking about the Western Conference, the teams that we feel like are locks, the teams like we feel like are on the bubble and likely to get in, obviously relative to the Thanksgiving line that we're always hearing about. And then the teams that we think that are out and can work their way in. And now we're going to go to the East on that. And I feel like the East, as opposed to the West, has maybe some clear. or tears in this group, Laz? Like, who are our locks at this point?

We're probably talking Tampa, Carolina, Washington. I think we're still talking New Jersey. Anyone else that you feel like is really a lock, Las? Honestly, are there any teams in the East that you feel really good about? I mean, maybe Tampa, or especially in the Atlantic Division, maybe Tampa, they've got seven straight wins. Seems like they're becoming the team that we thought they were. But, you know, New Jersey's in first place, but they're deeply flawed.

They are, you know, injury ravage. you can't feel great about them with Jack Hughes out. You can find a glaring flaw with every other so-called contender on this team. You know, Carolina's got the same questions we always have with them with the goaltending and everything else. And, you know, you can find a whole bunch of glaring flaws and all these guys that are like right around the bubble. And it makes for really entertaining watching of the hockey.

But, like, the West is so differently constructed than the East right now. I don't feel great about a single team in the Eastern Conference. You could tell me a team's going to miss the playoffs. I will believe you. You can tell me a team's going to make the playoffs. I will probably believe you. But the flip side of that is that almost nobody is out of this, right? Like there's only one team below 500 in the entire Eastern Conference.

Almost everybody's within, really almost every is within two points, let alone four. So that really you have this full bubble that basically comprises half of what's going to end up being the playoff field. Jesse, if I set the over under for you right now at one and a half teams out of Montreal, Boston, Philly and Pittsburgh, all of them in right now, If I set the over at 1.5 of those to miss the playoffs, are you taking the over or the under? I'm going over. I think two of them will fall out. I don't think more than two. So if it was two and a half, I probably would have went under, but you found the sweet spot at one and a half.

Some of these teams, like Pittsburgh and Philly are, it's so tough to figure out what those teams are because, like, especially me looking at it from a goalie perspective, those were the two worst teams in the entire NHL last year when it came to goaltending, like as a whole. Pittsburgh and Philly. This year, not only is the goaltending not a weakness, they're being carried by it. Like, Dan Vladar has been a superstar for the Flyers. He's the MVP on that team. And we've never seen that from Dan Vladar before. Like, he played five years and he had never had a safe percentage above the league average. He had never been more than just a backup now. He was behind some good goalies. And we do see goalies get bigger opportunities and rise to that. And he's clearly doing that. But it does give you some hesitancy of like, can he maintain this for an entire season? Can he be the guy and be a high end goalie, which is what he's been for Philly. Like if for those of you aren't watching Flyers games, like Dan Villar has been awesome. He is a monster in terms of the size.

When he's playing well, there is no net to shoot at. It's over. Like you don't score on him. So, and Pittsburgh, Tristan Jari has had like the dude got waved down to the HL last year. He's been awesome. Archer Shilov's has he's cooled off a little bit. she loves has, but he's still good. The prospect, Maroosev, has come up and been awesome. Like, I just don't trust that all that's going to hold up. It's been fun to watch. I'm a little skeptical, and I'm kind of waiting for the shoe to drop on those teams. So the question I have is Boston.

Boston's a team that makes no sense to me. I have no idea how they're here. I mean, they're here because of Jeremy Swaming. You want to talk about goaltending. Swamen has been so good in November. I think he's at 935 this month. After, you know, since that seven goals he gave up in Ottawa, Julian, that you were there for he's just completely turned things around.

He's 8 and 2 in that span. This is the third worst expected goals team in the league. They're getting by on special teams. They got a great power play and they got a top 10 penalty kill and they got a great goalie. Morgan Geeky is not going to shoot 30% for the whole year here. He's a 33 goal guy last year. He's not suddenly a 60 goal guy this year. He's been great and that's great for Boston.

But this doesn't feel sustainable. Jeremy Swamen is going to have to be a 935 goalie for the rest of the year for Boston to somehow get in the plows. Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia. I can see three or four of these teams. I know it violates the Thanksgiving rule, but I still am I'm looking at those teams that are on the outside. I still think Florida gets their act together. I can see even Toronto getting its act together.

I have a tough time believing Boston and Pittsburgh can keep this up for like five more months. Let's stick on Boston there, Julian, you've seen them live, I think, twice this year already. So why don't we go to you here? Like, what are you seeing with Boston? Just the fact that, like, I mean, the fact that working geeky has picked up his play and the fact that he's turned himself into like a star player on that team. Like, I think he's obviously turned into like one of the really good stories on this group. I still felt that all the people who dumped on Boston to start the year,

like you could do so much worse than having Pastor Knox, Swamen and McAvoy. And I get with McAvoy with health issues and stuff, it's a little different. But like, that's still a good starting point for any team, I find. I just felt with the composition of the players that they had and the goal tent that they were obviously going to get with Swayman. and I think Marco Stern deserves some credit with what he's been able to do with that group. I think that, I don't know if they're a playoff team. I don't think they're better.

I think they're definitely better than what they were going to show last year. I could see them on the way out. I still think Ottawa was a team that's going to stick in, and maybe this is just like the home coverage bias showing up here, and I've seen them more than any other team that we're going to talk about on the Eastern Conference. But, like, I just think the goaltending is starting to take a turn for the better. They were among the worst in safe percentage to start off the year.

They've actually gotten better in November. November. The penalty kill, I know as I know in Dallas yesterday, didn't show out too great against a really good stars team, but even the penalty kill is starting to get a little bit better. Tim Stutzelah has played like a really good player in the absence of Brady Kuchuk, who they now have back. I think just in totality with the fact that they've been able to commit to themselves playing defensively, they could still find a way to just sustain themselves and keep themselves in the playoffs. For a Pittsburgh, I like their start. I like the fact that they were getting good goaltending. I like the fact that their star players are obviously still their. star players and they're giving themselves that second breath of life under Dan Mews. I like the fact that Eric Carlson's also playing really well in that group too. I think they could fade a little bit by the middle of the season, if not later. But you know what? I think they might have done enough to kind of just keep themselves afloat in that Eastern Conference to potentially be a playoff team.

I'm not that impressed with so many other teams in the conference, though. That being said, I do agree that Florida is probably going to find a way to turn around. I just think they're inevitable. I think the way that they started off this year with all the injuries that they sustain. And they play a lot of hockey over in the last three years. They were bound to start off pretty slow. Once they get Matthew Kachuk back, not holding out hope for Parkov, but once they get Matthew Kutchuk back and once they get themselves, you know,

further up in the standings, I think they're going to be a playoff team again. And then once they make the playoffs, I mean, watch out to all those other teams in the Western Conference. Julian, for the record, all those people that were down on Boston talking about them, and the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes, they were all Bruins fans. Boston, nobody was down harder on the Bruins entering the season than Boston fans. Oh, I might have been. I might have been down hard. There are a lot of people who were really down hard on Boston this year.

I just felt that with the composition of players that they have, they were, they're not a lottery team. I could be wrong. But just remember how bad. Jeremy Swayman was not good last year. Like what he's doing this year. He was not good last year, but he's better. We weren't sure he was going to do this. It's pretty like logical explanation.

He missed all that time at the. start of last year. Yeah. The bad year. Like that is, that is an easy route back to being good. Not only just the, it's also just the mental like gymnastics that he went through of, you lose Linusolmark, your safety blanket of like when you've got that other guy in the tandem that you know, like if I'm not having my best week, that guy will just handle it. And the team isn't going to drown if I have a bad week or a bad month. So all of a sudden, it's all on you. Every single time you have a down month, a down week, the team's going right there with you. you get that massive contract, all the expectation.

I get it. He's come in this year. He's looked himself. He is like, so goalies can't control the game. They can only react to it. He is the, like, he is the closest thing to a goalie who controls the game because of how well

he controls rebounds, how he, like, he just absorbs everything. It just feels like, and like, Mark was mentioning Boston, their analytics are horrible.

I think they're giving up the most high danger chances of any team in the league. Imagine if Jeremy, Swamen wasn't doing what he's doing because I think he's saving them. Like, it's not just the saves he's making. I think he's saving them from having to make more saves because he controls rebounds so well. His positioning is so good. He is just square to the puck at all times. Everything is going into the corner or sticking in his gut. And he's actually making that team look better than it even is. So I agree with Mark that like that is thin ice. And then to me, I see Ottawa as the exact opposite.

Like they're right now, number one in the NHL in least amount of high danger chances allowed is Vegas. That doesn't surprise anyone. Number two, Ottawa. They are playing great defense. But when you watch the games, it doesn't feel like that because they're in shootouts every night because the goaltending has been so bad. And it's not these horrible goalies that no one ever expects to get better. It's Linus O'Mark. He's a good goalie.

Like maybe he's getting a little up there in age, but he should play better. And like Julian said, he has lately. So you look at the underlying metrics for Ottawa and then you assume that these go, these aren't terrible goalies. You assume they're going to get better. I see a path for Ottawa to be not just a playoff team, but like, Like one of the, if things start clicking, especially for Allmark, that could be one of the favorites going into the playoffs in the East. Yeah, Jesse, Boston is one of those teams where if they can get into March still in this.

I think you kind of like a little bit of their construction in terms of like what wins in the playoffs. It's great goal tending. It's if they can get a healthy Charlie McAvoy back. It's good defense. And they got some guys that'll bang bodies in Castellick and Janow. Like, that can play. And to Laz's point about Morgan Geeky, I felt the same way that you said about like, there's

know he's going to shoot 30%. I felt the same way coming into this season. And we had Fluto on for the divisional preview. And I'm like, Fluto, you know, there's a lot about Boston that feels like it could fall out. You know, is Morgan Geek going to shoot 22% again? Well, here he's shooting 29%. And Fluto was resolute that, yes, he absolutely can score 30 plus goals again, whether it came by shooting percentage or not. I'm seeing him score every which way.

I saw him score last night or two nights ago on a deflection in front of the net and then later on like a power play one-timer. Like he can just do it every which way. And I don't think he's going to continue to match goals with Nathan McKinnon for the rest of this season. But like he looks like he's going to score 40 this year. And that is not something I planned on coming in. So I agree with the skepticism about Boston. But they only have to defy it so long before their game starts to really fit how late season hockey is played. Let's go to Montreal here because the Canadians are a team that I really struggled to get my head around.

They came out really blazing hot. They had the great run last year. They're starting to pick it back up again. but I still look at them, and they only have three wins over teams that made the playoffs last year, three out of the 13. All the other teams in this group of Montreal, Boston, Philly, and Pittsburgh have more than that. Most of them have significantly more than that. Boston has eight of them. Montreal's got three.

Does that concern you? I mean, last year's playoffs aren't necessarily this year's playoffs, but I do think there's a decent correlation between who's good and what you've been able to do, Laz. I mean, they've got a minus five goal differential. That's alarming. They're not playing great hockey anymore, especially in the way they started. But I still like the makeup of this team. I think they've got seven or eight guys with at least seven goals this year. It's not just Cole Clawfield out there scoring.

It's not just Nick Suzuki setting guys up. They have a really balanced offense, which I like a lot. And you know, you figure that when the goaltending kind of comes back around and I have a tough time seeing them fall out, but I'm starting to have a tough time seeing them as a true contender with the Tampa's and Carolinas and New Jersey's of it all. Yeah. Yeah, it's tough.

And then you have Pittsburgh. And Pittsburgh's, you know, kind of been the surprise team of the, league for me, a team that we all thought was going to be picking. We keep waiting, right? We keep waiting for the bottom to fall out. Like, it was a EDA. They keep happy. They lose like two or three games in a row. It's like, ah, here it comes. Here comes the regression. And then they pull out like a really nice win. It's hard to get, it's hard to get a feel after them. Last year, it was that exact same thing. We were like, this team is old. They will eventually fall apart. And like, they never did. They were one of the best teams in the East all year. They didn't

go all the way, but they were good in the playoffs. Like, they, they proved that they were a good team. So, like, I feel like we're doing it all over again with the Penguins. Did you guys see Eric Carlson on Hockey Nine Canada over the weekend saying it finally took a coach 17 years to realize he could kill penalties? The Penguins have Eric Carlson killing penalties. And it's working? I don't know. I think it's super, I think it's really funny to see this, like, of all the teams that we expected to see compete for the Gavin McKenna's sweepstakes, like Pittsburgh was supposed to be number one. Like, that was supposed to be a team that we all thought was going to be out of it from the first week of the season.

And to see them be competitive, like, Dan Muce might get Jack Adams votes for what he's been able to do with this group. Like, I think they're a really cool story to start. I don't know if they're going to end up sticking. It'd be fun to see them stick and get into the playoffs as like one last gasp for that big three up front. But, like, I don't know. I think it's been kind of cool to see them kind of defy expectations.

It really is astonishing to me how few offensive players get to kill penalties. Like, if you're an offensive star, you should be out there kill. You should be the aggressor. You should be pressuring at the point. You should be trying to create scoring opportunities. You can get more scoring chances shorthanded than he can five on five sometimes if you're the right kind of aggressive. And Carlson's smart enough.

I know he's never been known as a defensive shutdown guy. But he's a smart enough player that he should be able to capitalize on short-handed opportunities more than your average player. I just thought it was like a fun thing to bring up with the Penguins, who again, just the fact that it took. Dan Mews might be the leader. You talk about him maybe getting some votes. he might, it's him and Joel Quenville right now, I feel like,

are our neck and neck for a coach of the year. I don't think it's a question. On a group that couldn't, that either struggled to get into the playoffs or couldn't get to the playoffs with Mike Sullivan at the helm. Like, it's super surprising. And Mike Sullivan is not doing all that well right now. No, no, not doing that well with the New York Rangers at all.

Yeah. Pittsburgh, it would be fun to see them in the playoffs. I don't know why, but I feel like maybe Montreal, I'm a little bit more sure of just because of the fact that they were able to do it last year. I think the high-end talent, I think, has been solid. for them. I do like what Ivan Damedov's been able to play with them. I've been able to do in playing with them, obviously. The goal tending I'm not as sure about. I think Sam Montaum Bulls taking a step back this year.

Yakubovish could stand to be a little bit better too. And I think even in those games that they did win, I mean, there was a lot of high event hockey in the overtime games that they were able to win. I think they just need a little bit more depth up and down the center position and also the injuries that they sustained throughout the year. I mean, Alex New Hook being out long term, and Kate and Gully being out as well. That does not help a team like the Montreal Canaan. So, yeah, they get the winner of Vegas.

But I think long term, it's still not the greatest situation. Not to mention they also got their butt spanked by Colorado the other day, too. Who doesn't? That's true. Colorado's been really good as well. I think Montreal, if they make the right move at the deadline, they could put themselves in a position where they could still be a playoff team. But it's still going to be a little bit shaky for them to get there. All right.

So history says two of these four. four, Montreal, Boston, Pittsburgh, Philly do not make the playoffs. I guess technically it's of any of the, but if we assume that the other four are in, Jesse, which two are out in this group? Sorry, Pennsylvania. The whole state, they're out. It's, it's, I like what I've seen from them. I just am a little skeptical. I'm not quite sold on it. And sometimes those, like, I just talked about Washington. I was not sold on Washington all the year last year. I was wrong. They did it the whole year. We'll see if these teams can keep it up. I will say with Montreal, I will say, with Montreal, I want to see, and it's also like a little bit in the West, like these young skilled teams that

aren't as heavy and aren't as vet, they don't have as many veterans. They, the hockey in October and November is built for the Montreal Canadians and the ducks and the sharks and like the Blackhawks. And I'm curious how these young skilled teams are going to fare as the games start to pile up, as the things start to slow down, the time and space available and the ice starts to disappear as the playoffs get closer. Like that would be my hesitation on Montreal, whereas with Pittsburgh and Philly, I'm not as concerned about that, like as I am with Montreal. And so I'll go with the two from Pennsylvania,

but I could easily see Montreal being one of the teams that falls out to. All right. Let me reframe this debate, if I can. Which of these teams would, would it be detrimental for them to make the playoffs? Because none of these teams is winning the Stanley Cup, right? I'm sitting out here. You know, I'm in the Western Conference. I'm seeing Connor Baderd play MVP hockey.

I'm seeing Macklin-Cellibrini play MVP hockey. I'm seeing Leo Carlson play MVP hockey. I'm the guy who has railed against tanking forever now. I destroyed Kyle Davidson when he started the tank in 2022 at the draft in Montreal. And I've been steady about that, and I'm starting to look really wrong. So let me ask which of these teams does itself a disservice. Look, everyone wants to make the playoffs. You make more money.

The fans are happy. But in the bigger picture, which fluky team, for lack of a better word, screws itself by making the playoffs this year. It's Pittsburgh number one then. I disagree. I think it's Pittsburgh number one. Okay. I just, here's the thing.

Like, I get it. Like, Pittsburgh, with the core they have up top, you try to maximize as much as you can. But like, if you put yourself in a position where you could pass the torch along to a high-level prospect, a Gavin McKenna-like player, if you put yourself in that position, if you're Pittsburgh, like, you're preparing that succession plan. Montreal, I don't think they hurt themselves that bad by making the playoffs. their prospect pool is already as stocked as it is. And I think just with some of the younger players that they do have in Suzuki and Caulfield who already have that playoff experience, like you're trying to build off of what you have. I think it's less so for them, maybe more so for a Pittsburgh.

Philly and Boston could fight for second place. But I think number one with the bullet is Pittsburgh. So the reason I disagree is because I think if this team's good enough to make the playoffs and they like, I keep going back to the Washington, if they're Washington, if they're good, If the Penguins are actually good and they have Sidney Crosby and if Gennie Malkin, they can win playoff series. That team can win play. Because if they get to the playoffs, they've proven they're a good team at that point.

Right now, we don't fully believe it. But if we're in March, May and April and they're still a good team, nobody wants to play Sidney Crosby in the playoffs, like with a good team. Like, that dude can win playoffs. Can he win the cup? I don't know. But maybe. I'd love to see it.

Right. Whereas like the fly. Right. We'd all love to see it. But whereas like the Flyers, I don't think. think they can win the cup. The Philadelphia Flyers aren't winning the Stanley Cup. So to me, Pittsburgh, yes, I agree. Getting Gavin McKenna would be great. But when like a chance to win another cup for Sidney Crosby, when I think there is a small percentage chance that it actually could

happen to me, I don't think Pittsburgh's the answer here. I would just feel so much more sure if like the times we've seen this court in the playoffs, I mean, not to say this core in the playoffs. I should say just in the last few years, this, even when they've been in the playoffs, they haven't gotten out of the first round. You have to go back, what, at least like, what, 2019, 2018? No, even earlier. Yeah, 2018, I think it's the last time they won around in the playoffs. It's not as if, like, the Pittsburgh Penguins are just having this moment where, all right, like, remember Tampa Bay a couple years ago, they had all these different injuries, and they weren't able to make the playoffs. They end up back in the playoffs,

and that's a team that eventually goes on to win Stanley Cups. Like, Pittsburgh is not in that mode right now. Like, I, like, yes, it's Sidney Crosby and McGee Malcott and Chris LaTang. like everyone should be scared of them but like I don't know depending on who they play in that first round like if they get Tampa Bay in the first round I think Tampa Bay beats them right well like to me Tampa's the best team in the East so I agree with you there right but my whole point is is that I don't think Pittsburgh's going to put themselves in a position where they're like top two or three in their division where they give themselves a more favorable matchup if they sneak in and get into the playoffs they might get beat by a really good team at the top of that conference the one thing about making the playoffs for Pittsburgh is that it might actually help them keep Sidney Crosby that's the one like you caveat to this, but I think it's both Pennsylvania teams that need the top pick. Let's go to the teams that want to displace these teams, though, because like we said, everybody is still in this here, pretty much. You can argue the Sabres, they're five points out right now, but that's not that much in the big picture. So the bubble teams on the outside looking in right now are the

islanders, the Senators, the Red Wings, the Rangers, the Blue Jackets, the Panthers, the Maple Leafs, and the Sabers. I think we're all going to be unanimous here and that we very much expect the Florida the Panthers as they get Matthew Kachuk back to climb this list. The next team after that, though, Julian, for me, is the Ottawa Center. This is a team that before the year, one of my bold predictions was that they make the final four in the East. That's feeling a little ambitious to me now, but I'm still not thinking it's crazy because I do look at a team that has Tim Stutzlow, that has Brady Kachuk, that has Jake Sanderson,

who continues to get better and better. And if Linus Allmark can write the ship, which is a big if right now, I get it, but we've seen it from before. If Linus Allmark can write the ship, the senators are the team that I think knocks out, in addition to Florida, one of the teams that are in it right now. I think if you put the Sunday result where Ottawa loses big to Dallas and Lina Solmark, just tough night at the office for him, tough nights for a tough night at the office for everybody.

But leading up to that point, 4-1 and 1, his last six starts, 9-14, safe percentage. I think he had some good performances during this road trip. And I think for this Ottawa Senator's team, in order for them to make the playoffs, they need him to play well, but they also need their number two. to play well in Levy Merlin, who I think in his last five games, he's three and two. I think he's also gotten a little bit better. He had a really terrible first game against the Buffalo Sabres. They need him to play well because, as of right now,

Lena Solmark is trending towards playing at least 62 games. That's what he's projected to play, which he's never played more than 49 in a season. And as Jesse could attest to, like, the best goaltenders in the league, yes, you have your elite guys who could play the 60, 65, but typically you want your goaltenders to be playing between 50, 55, maybe just below 60 games in the season. You cannot afford for Lena Solmart to overtire himself. So you need Levy Merlinan

to be your solid number two. And I think he has been in his last few games. But you get the goaltending on the right track, you give yourself a chance. The penalty kill, I know it has not been great for this team going forward. I think they've had a better November than October. Again, you're going to have to put that Dallas

result aside because Wyatt Johnston on his own, I think, through the power play was able to kind of displace the sentence. But I just think with some of the little things that they've been able to put together and get better at, that's going to keep them afloat as a playoff team. Tim Sutzler, I think when Brady Kachuk was hurt,

I think he played really solidly in that top line role. Drake Batherson deserves a lot of credit as well, up and down with the centers that they have. I think they have really good center depth. And the fact that they're going to get Brady Kuchuk back playing on that wing, I think, obviously, we know how much of a game breaker he can be.

I think they have the pieces to return to the playoffs again. It's just that goal-tending question for me. they just have to get out of this early season blues that they've set for themselves. Like Linus Allmark did it last year where he was arguably the best goaltender in December last year. There's a reason to believe he could do it again. Yeah. At one point, I think I would have said the Rangers have a very good chance to be in that mix.

They're obviously in a tough spot right now with Adam Fox going on LTIR. This is an interesting one, Ladd, because I'm at the point now where I think it's a toss-up of who I think has a better chance between the Rangers and the Islanders. You know, that was the team I was going to bring up, was the Islanders. was the islanders, I just feel like, you look at them, if you look at the roster side by side, you're going to lean towards the Rangers. But if you watch them actually play,

the Islanders have a vibe about them, right? Every year there's a team that just kind of has that vibe about them, where it's like, you know, they're doing something special. And it all traces back to Matthew Schaefer on the back end. He's just fundamentally altered the DNA of that entire franchise, really. It's like the anti-Lulamorello team now. They're all fun and gun. Bo Horvad is crushing it.

There's a lot to like about that team all of a sudden, and you know they've got Ilya Sorokin in that. You know, when you got Chesterkin on the other side and in the city with the Rangers, I understand that argument. But I kind of like the Islanders more than the Rangers. The Rangers are just, they're dower and they're so bad at home. And none of this makes any sense. Like, I just, it's hard to put any stock in what the Rangers are doing right now. They just, they don't look like a playoff team ever to me.

They just don't. I see those two teams as very similar in that if you don't, if you take two of the best goalies in the world, Sorokin and Chesterkin. And honestly, the backups, Big Save Dave, Dave Riddick and Jonathan Quick have been out of their minds lately. So you take those four goalies and put like league average goalies on those two teams and they're both horrific. Like I think the Rangers and Islanders are the worst team in the NHL with average goaltending. They're being propped up by amazing goalies. Now, I think the Islanders have a little more juice. Like you said, they've got some more scoring power. The Rangers, it feels like it takes a miracle for them to put the puck in

the net. Like, I watch tons of Rangers games because I love watching Igor Shisterkin, and I don't, like, I don't know if there's a more frustrating team to watch. Maybe the Buffalo Sabers, if you're a Sabers fan. Other than the Sabers, I think the Rangers might be the most frustrating team to root for because they just can't generate anything offensively. And the goalies are standing on their heads, no matter which guy it is that night quicker, Shisterkin. Sorokin and Riddick have been awesome. I agree with you. I tend to lean more towards the Islanders in terms of a chance to get it together, but I'm honestly not all that high on either of them. I think they're subpar teams that are being propped up by the goalies.

Does anybody want to jump on the stump for any of the red wings, blue jackets, maple leaves or sabres here? I just want to say about the Panthers. Like, when we just assume the Panthers, we're not just like, no, I know, absolutely. Absolutely not. But I feel like, I feel like we gloss over the Panthers and people, I don't want people to think that we're saying that just because they're the two-time defending champions. They're playing really good. Like they're playing good hockey right. I think only Colorado and Carolina have a higher scoring chance edge than they do.

They are, the puck's going to start going in, and they're going to start winning a bunch of games, and they're fine. I just don't want people thinking that we're just, you know, oh, the Florida Panthers, they must make it because they're chipped. No, they're playing well without arguably their two best players. I think you need to mention that, that we're not just assuming them. We're seeing something with them. I'm also just assuming them.

No, yeah. I'm with Max here. I think they've earned the benefit of the doubt at this point. And I get that they've played a lot of hockey over the last three years. At this point for me with this group, I expect them to play well enough to get into the playoffs. And then even if they enter as a lower seed, they could likely be the favorite in any series that they've played. We know what to expect from this group when the games really matter. Like I'm okay with assuming that they can make it.

If they don't make it, then, well, that's on us. But like, it's also on them too. A good note from our producer, Chris. Our friends at BetMGM have the senators minus 175 to make the playoffs. Slightly better odds in the Canadians minus 165. So if you're looking for one place that Vegas potentially sees it flipping, that's a good one to look. Let's take a quick break right there. We're going to come back and we're going to talk about Julian's book.

All right, we are back. And Julian, one of the reasons we wanted to have you on today is, of course, that you have a book coming out. In February, February 3rd, that is Black Aces Essential Stories from Hockey's Black Trailblazers. Let's just start here. What inspired you to write this one? And what were some of the big things you learned on it? I've always wanted to write a book since I was a little kid. I thought the idea of writing a book was just this really cool idea, this really cool.

I'm pretty sure everyone who at some point wants to be in journalism or in writing has wanted to do something like that. And then in 2023, actually I got to write a story about Bill Peters, the former NHL coach, who ultimately was forced to leave his position from the Calgary Flames after reports of an incident surface between him and Akeem Alleyu in the American Hockey League in which he unfortunately used racial slurs toward him. I had written a column about Bill Peters getting an opportunity to coach a Western Hockey League team. And I thought the parameters of him getting that opportunity

were a little bit weird. And what was a big sticking point for me in that story was the fact that he had gone through another coach to try to curry an apology to Akeem. And my column essentially was about that. And an agent approached me after the fact and said, hey, it'd be cool if you were interested in writing a book, it would be cool to do it, obviously. I was just trying to think of different ideas. And while I think there have been books where writers have profiled certain black players in hockey, I think we're at a point now where there's been a great deal of them throughout the history of the game that are worth profiling, that are worth telling stories over.

And not just players that we just know immediately in the NHL, but even people like a Dante Abercrombie who is set to lead a hockey program at Tennessee State University, the first to do so for an HBCU. I hope through this project that there are some obvious names like a Willie O'Re, obviously you're going to read about or a grant. Fear or Jerome McGinlow, who was kind enough to provide the forward, but it'd be cool for people to read about Blake Bolden, who we now see on Amazon broadcast and the SPN and was a scout for the Los Angeles Kings, but telling her story was really cool as someone who aspired to play for Team USA one day at the Olympics. Or Kelsey Kohlzler, who is the first black player male or female to ever be drafted first overall in a North American hockey draft. It was really cool to, I, I, I, learned a lot of stories such as Kelsey's or such as Blake's and what she was trying to do.

And even just telling stories of players like Angela James. I like the fact that I was able to get female players in this too and it wasn't just male players being honored in this. Yeah, I'm really happy about the process for this book. I'm really happy about the fact that we're almost at the finish line and it'll get published and people get to read it. And yeah, I'm really excited for people to read it. I have a very important question.

When you call up Anson Carter, does he answer the phone? own ace here. You know what's funny. Initially, I'll tell you this. Initially, when I interviewed Anson, the nickname thing did not come up at all. But as I was like putting

the final touches on the book, there were people who were reaching out being like, hey, you know you kind of have to, you have to ask him about the ace thing, right? And I did try to get like, like a I tried to get some kind of explanation from, from Anson and TNT essentially reached out. And

I'll just say the explanation was not as it's not this crazy story with Ace but I also understand I understand why the nickname came to be it's just like a simple thing but at least that's how they define it right like maybe there was something else maybe there's another story but still

that was Mario Lemieux nickname too nobody called him Super Mario on the team they all called him Ace I think there's a fair amount of ACEs in the NHL yeah I heard about that like Ace like Super Mario is a much cooler nickname for Mario. You're not going to call your buddy, hey, Super Mario. Super Mario, I'm open.

Drop. Yeah, but as Shane Donne said to me for this book, like hockey nicknames are stupid. Like hockey players are awful. They're awful. Like, of course, no one is going to call Marial the View Super Mario. They'll call him like Maria or just something basic. Like, Ace doesn't, I don't get the correlation with Ace for him. It's a cool name.

Ace, I understand for answer. I do want to ask, you know, you mentioned that, you know, you wanted to spotlight some other names. And, you know, it's funny. We do a, like, we used to do a shadow committee for the Hall of Fame voting every year, where Eric Duhatchik, who's been in that room, would kind of lead us through the process, and we would try to advocate for players and builders to get in. And a few years ago, we, we put up Herb Carnegie. And it's almost embarrassing, but I think the majority of the hockey writers in that

Slack Channel did not know exactly who Herb Carnegie was. He's in the Hall of Fame. you have a chapter on him. Tell us a little bit about Herb Carnegie. I think of all the chapters I wrote, that chapter was the one in my head I needed to get right. Like, writing a chapter on Jerome McGinlow, like, that's one of my favorite players growing up. P.K. Suban, same deal. Like, there's a lot of emotion you put in those chapters. But like Herb Carnegie, the fact that he, there's, like, even if he didn't make it to the NHL, the fact that you could say that he was arguably the best black player to never make it to the NHL.

The fact that he played on an all-black line playing semi-pro, which had never been heard of beyond the colored hockey league of the Maritimes. And in fact, that line was called the Black Cases. Like, that, there's so many elements of that chapter that needed, I needed this to go well. But also just learning about his story and for people who want to learn more about him, you should also read his memoir, A Fly and a Pale of Milk that he and his daughter, Bernice co-wrote.

I think it's very much worth your time and to take a hell of a title. Yes, absolutely. One story to me about Herb that's always going to stick in my head is when he was a lot younger and he played on a local team in Toronto, they had a practice at the Maple Leaf Gardens. And that day, it just so happens, there were members of the Toronto Maple Leaf staff there, including Khan Smife, who I believe was the GM and team president and might have even been owner at the time too. And the legend says that.

as he was watching Herb Carnegie play, he had told one of his coaches who then relayed that message to Herb that if someone on the Leafs or if someone could find a way to turn Herb Carnegie White, they would put them on the Leafs tomorrow or they'd pay them a whole bunch of money, which is like a very brutal story.

And on YouTube, you can find Herb Carnegie being interviewed about that with Elliot Friedman in like 2008. And Elliot is talking to Herb about it. And Herb is like, visibly upset that this is still something that's just going to follow him forever. And he's openly like crying and bawling and his daughter is going to console him. Like hearing stories like that to me, even if it was decades ago, like we're not that far off from from that being a thing.

And I just thought it was just so heartbreaking. And to have to tell that story in the context of the book, I mean, obviously it's not something you feel great about. But I think those are still essential stories that people need to read and understand when it comes to knowing about the history of black people and the sport of hockey. So, yeah, I felt of all the chapters, like that one, I just felt my mentality. I needed to get that one right. And I hope people feel the same when they read it. I did a story with Dan Robson a couple of years back about the mental toll of fighting in the game of hockey. And even though it's evolved, I think that's still in there for the guys who do it pretty often.

And it was really shaped by the quotes, Dan Gough from George LaRocke. I know that's a guy you talked to for this story. Super thoughtful. I think a fascinating person. Like, what did you learn from him in the reporting for this book? For George, like the fact that he, what I find super interesting is that he's a guy, especially when I talk to him for the book, he's a guy that's not, he doesn't like fighting as much as you would think for a guy as a lot as much as he did or was as associated with the code.

Remember the code and fighting? Yep. that's not someone who he's in one hand he's like yeah like I had to fight because I had to do it it wasn't something I took pleasure in but then when you look at how people

remember him like I think of like Sarah Nurse saying like yeah like one of the first characters I got to play whenever I would play EA sports NHL games was George the Rock because of the fact that he could fight like during one of the cup finals in the last few years where obviously the Emmington Oilers are in it

like George the Rock releases this line with death row with these shirt of him fighting. That is such a massive part of who he is as a person. One of my favorite things about George L. Rock, one of my favorite NHL moments, which is like the way his chapter starts.

I'm sure you guys remember it when he was with the coyotes. They might have still been in Phoenix at the time, and he's miced up, and he's about to fight Raitis Ivans of the Los Angeles Kings. And you just hear him just be like, all right, you want to go? All right, we'll do it. And then they just start fighting. And it's like one of the most epic fights you've ever seen.

Like, usually we think of a fight. It's like, all right, I'm at you, I'm mad at you, like, right, right, we're going to fight. But George was just like, all right, you want to do this? All right, we're going to do it. And then just crap. Like, that's such a huge part of who he is. And it's very much a focal point of that chapter. But as you read it, there's like another moment that I really want to focus on with George because of the way that just the excitement he had in talking about this particular specific moment that I focus on in the book.

Like, for me, I was just like, this is just going to be awesome because everyone's going to see George Lerok written in the book. book and they're going to be like, well, yeah, you're going to talk about fighting. And yeah, we definitely do talk about fighting. But I think when you read the chapter more and you see what's focused on a little bit more, you'll be like, oh, holy crap, I had no idea he did this. What a tease. What a tease. All right. Absolutely. Julian, I wanted to go back to something you said about just like you personally and saying, like people who go into journalism, maybe dream about writing a book. You dreamed about writing a book since you were a kid. I write every day. I write long stories. I write 5,000 word stories.

And I have, like, writing a book seems so daunting to me. So my question to you is, like, how different is that process? And maybe, maybe, like, how much more did you enjoy the process? How different was it and how much more did you enjoy it compared to what we're all doing every day, which is writing words? But it's obviously different when it's part of a bigger thing. Do you see each chapter as a story? Like, I guess just how did you approach it and how different was it?

I think the fact that Black Aces, to me, is such a passion project that definitely played into the love-hate relationship with there's a lot more love. But when you're trying to write stories in the middle of you moving halfway across the country from Calgary to Ottawa, like, that's not easy to do. And you're getting yourself settled on a new beat and you're getting used to everyone in Ottawa, but you're also spending time like, writing 2,000 words at a time about Grant Fear, for example. Like, there's definitely been some moments where I've just like, ah, this process is like very time consuming and draining. But I don't know. I feel like for writing stories at The Athletic where I find a lot of the time,

obviously you're trying to follow the team. And it also depends on the nature of your beach too, right? Like depending on which teams you cover and the market size you have, like it might even depend on the frequency. Whereas for Black Gays, is I definitely felt more pressure. Not to say, I definitely feel pressure in the job I have now, which I love at the athletic. But I feel like for a book, like hard cover copies, man.

Like you get that on a bookshelf. That lasts forever. That lasts forever. If I want to save a story off the athletic, like I got to save the PDF and you send people links. Like my grandmother, God bless her, like, does not have a subscription to the New York Times. But whenever my articles get published in the New York Times, like, I try to give her a copy so that way she could just have it, she could read those stories. I don't have to worry about, like, sending her copies of, like, a chapter from a book.

I can give her the whole damn book. Like, I can't wait to do that. But also just, I think just the fact that writing a book is such a legacy thing for me, and is a legacy thing, I think for a lot of people who do it, I definitely put a lot of pressure on myself to get this right. But it was also really fun to do. And I don't know if I'll do it again, but, like, I really enjoyed getting that opportunity to, to put it.

a project like this together. I feel that. I always say like, I love having written a book. I did not necessarily love writing the book itself. Like I did in midseason when I did mine. I know exactly what you're talking about. But once you do see,

when you see it on, you know, you still, you poke your head into a bookstore, you go to an indigo or you go to a Barnes & Noble and you see it there. You're going to be so proud and it's going to be a really cool moment.

I can't wait until like I walk into a bookstore with somebody and maybe they have no idea. And then I could just be like, hey, that's me. What I always do, I always make it so that mine's on display. I always grab mine and make it into a better display and put someone else's book, I tuck it in. Dude, I'm going to do that.

I'm going to be insufferable. The first month of this book being out, I'm going to be insufferable, guys. When I get my copies of this book, like, I'm going to be promoting this everywhere. I'm going to start doing TikToks promoting this thing. Like, I'm so proud of what I've been able to do it. I really can't wait for people to read it. And to do it on black hockey players, right? And to have like Jerome McGinla provide the,

forward for it. Like, I remember when, like, I was talking about it with my agent with this project and I was trying to think of all these different people I wanted in the book. I remember approaching Jerome about it before, like, some practice. And in my head, I thought, well, if Jerome McGill is not going to do this project, there's no point in doing this. If he says, like, nah, I don't have time for you. But, and, like, to this day, I've never been more nervous approaching anybody for anything

in my life. Like, even talking to him, I was like, yeah, um, so, uh, yeah. Yeah, do you want to get interviewed for this book? And he was like, yes. And even what he said yes, I'm like, really? You won't do this? I was so surprised. But like Jerome was the best with his time.

And I really appreciate, I really appreciate Jerome giving me his time for it. And also one other thing that was really cool about it. I know I'm rambling, but talking to other people about the subjects I focused on, like that was also really cool. Like getting to talk to Sidney Crosby for five minutes about Jerome and how he loved him as a player growing up and like going to Calgary to play in the max bell youth tournament and then getting to watch him in a flames game that night like hearing stories like that from all these different people about some of the different subjects I focused on for the book like that was super

cool to to know how much of an impact these players have had some of our favorite NHL players and personalities yeah well we are thrilled to be the first stop on the publicity tour again the book is black aces essential stories from hockey's black trailblazers that is due February 3rd, 2026. You can buy it at triumphbooks.com. And again, some of the names it features Jerome Ginnla, Grant Fier, Sarah Nurse, P.K. Suban, Anson Carter, George LaRock, among others.

Someone in your life wants this book. Make sure they get it. That is going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Athletic Hockey Show. Remember, you can subscribe on YouTube at YouTube.com at the Athletic Hockey Show to watchful episodes. And everybody's favorite Sean,

your second favorite Sean, and your favorite Frankie will have you covered on Wednesday. talk to you soon.