The Athletic Hockey Show - Who are the mid-season candidates for NHL Awards?

Episode Date: January 9, 2025

With the NHL at the midway point of the season, Mark Lazerus and Jesse Granger discuss the leading candidates for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Adams, Selke, Vezina, Richard, and Art Ross trophies. Plus the boys present their candidates for the 'Rod Langway' trophy, an award which should exist to honor the NHL's best defensive defenseman.Hosts: Mark Lazerus and Jesse GrangerExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Jeff Domet Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. Hello and welcome to the athletic hockey show Thursday style. I am Mark Lazarus alongside Jesse Granger. We are filling in for Haley Salvian and Sean Gentilly, who are on assignment. Jesse, I think we might have to, I don't know, tone down our vibe a little bit to match the usual Thursday vibe. I mean, I think I'm a little bit bombastic and you geeking out about some goalie stuff. It doesn't really fit what the audience expects on Thursday. Do we have to dial it down a notch here?

I can't dial down the goalie nerdiness. It's not possible. I know. I wouldn't want you to. It's what makes you, you, right? So we're recording this on Wednesday night. This is the Thursday morning show. And the news today was the Winter Classic is going to be in the state of Florida.

Florida is getting both outdoor games next year. It's going to be Rangers Panthers at the Marlin Stadium. I have no idea what the Marlin Stadium is called. I wish they still had that giant sculpture in center field, but I think they got rid of that. But what do you think about hockey in Florida? Can they pull that off? I think it's going to be fun to watch. watch them try.

It seems like Florida is wild weather swings this time of year. Like you can get a cold week in Florida where it's freezing outside. But you can also get really warm, impossible to have hockey conditions in Florida. So it's going to be very, very interesting to see what happens. I love that. I do think that they should be going to, like to me, the winter classic is about what does a hockey game look like, fill in the blank? What would it look like if we played a hockey game? here. And they keep going back to Wrigley and they keep going to these places that we've already

seen. I know what hockey looks like at Riggily. I know what hockey looks like at the other place. So I want to see what it looks like in Florida. So I'm very excited for it. To me, that's what makes the Winter Classic exciting for me is trying to see hockey in a new place. I mean, you see it in one stadium. You've seen them in all stadium. I wrote a thing a couple weeks ago about I'd like to see them be a little more creative. I'd like to see this on the beach in Fort Lauderdale or something. Let's get crazy here and not care about the fans. But obviously they care about the fans and the viewership and having the Rangers in there is smart. I interned at the Palm Beach Post my junior year of college,

way back in the spring of 2000. And there's so many New Yorkers in South Florida that we would run entire Mets and Yankees like AP game stories in the Palm Beach Post every single day. Like they got the same play the Marlins did because there were just as many Mets fans and Yankees fans as there are Marlins fans. So it's very, very savvy to put the Rangers in there and to have Boston. Because, you know, everyone in the Midwest and West retires to Arizona. Arizona and everybody in the Northeast retires to Florida.

So very savvy teams to have Boston, Tampa and Rangers, Panthers, I think. I didn't even make that connection. I honestly, when I saw it, I was like Rangers, that's a little random. Didn't even fit, but that makes total sense. It makes a lot of sense. Yeah. I'm frankly, all of us here in Chicago are absolutely outraged that they're having an outdoor game without the Blackhawks.

That's not allowed. It's in the CBA that Chicago must be involved and lose every single outdoor game. So we're up in arms here. I don't blame you. I don't blame. I thought it was the Wrigley classic was actually what they were going to start calling it. Just having a Wrigley every year from now on. Like the pinstripe bowl at Yankee Stadium.

All right. So tonight, Thursday night, we hit the exact midpoint of the NHL season. 656 games completed, 656 games to go. So we thought, what better time to dive into the awards races, right? We're at the halfway point. Let's see where things stand with. We got, I think we got nine trophies we're going to talk about, today. We're going to hash out all of them. We're going to pick our winners. We're going to pick

some dark horses. We're going to see what we got. Let's start with the big one, right? We're going to start with the Hart Trophy. It's just like last year, man, this is really tough to pick a winner here. Do you go with Nathan McKinnon, Leon Drysidal, Carrille Caprizoff, Connor Hellebuck? Who do you have right now halfway through this season? Yeah. And what's wild is, like, of all those names you mentioned, we didn't even mention the favorite Connor McDavid because he's just so obvious that he's one of the candidates. Like, you don't even,

he, his name is synonymous with this award by it at this point. Nikita Kutjurov, too. I mean, there's so many guys right now that are in the thick of this. Jack Eichol, there's so many guys you could put out there.

So I'll start by making my argument for the goalie. I'm sure you and everyone listening expect to. Shocked it. To me, you can't always give it to a goalie because it's most valuable player. But I do think that win a goalie has a historically great year. One of the better years. of a decade, of a generation, whatever you call it,

it's almost impossible to not give it to them because no position affects the outcome of games more than goalies. And when Connor Hellebuck is playing the way he's playing right now, it's just to me, it's a simple fact. No player in the NHL is affecting the outcome of games more than Connor Hellebuck is at the moment. I was digging up some of his stats. It's pretty unreal what he's doing in Winnipeg this year.

I mean, he won the Vezna last year and he's been infinitely, better this season than he was last year. 31 goals saved above expected, which to me, goalie stats are hit or miss. I think a lot of them have more to do with the team in front of them. But to me, the best goalie stat is goal saved above expected. He has 32. And second place is Lucas Dostal with 21.

So we're talking a massive. Third place is Karel Vajmalka, who is half as many as Helibuk. I mean, we're getting ahead of ourselves with a Vezna Trophy here, talk here. But he is having an absolutely. insane season. Yeah. I mean, he's having like I compared, I had a tweet the other day that compared he's actually doing what Dominic Hachik did at his, like when you look at his safe percentage compared to the league average, it's the gap is basically what it was for Hachik when Hachik was winning Vezanis every year and in the heart conversation. So I do think that even as a goalie supporter as as the guy who's

always trying to get the goalies in the conversation, I don't think they always belong in the heart conversation, even if they're the best goal in the league. But when a goalie has a historic season the way Connor Hellebuck is, I think it's really hard to argue that any winger or center or defenseman is affecting games and is more valuable to his team than what Connor Hellebuck's been in Winnipeg this year. You're preaching of the choir here. I am a big, like I always have goalies on my heart ballot. Igor Shestirkin's been up there recently Hellebuck last year.

I'm a guy in 20, I think it was the 2015 when Devin Dubnick was traded to Minnesota and just completely transformed. their season. I had him number one on my heart ballot. And to this day, 10 years later, I stand by that vote. He was clearly to me the most influential and important person on any team in the league. So it is, you know, Hellow Buck's going to be in this conversation. He's going to be in it until the end of the year, unless he has another march like he did last year where he kind of faded from that contention. But for argument's sake, to me, it's between if you're going with a forward. I know Nathan McKinnon is leading the league in scoring. I know he's arguably the best player in the world right now.

but Carilla Caprizov and Leon Drysidal. What Drysidal is doing is the league's leading goal scorers. He's got 29 goals as of this recording. He leads to the league in even strength goal scoring. He's not just a power play merchant, as they say. By the way, when did that term come into, when did we come up with the term power play merchant? It's all I hear now.

It's all I see now. Don't merchants sell things. How does scoring on the power play make you a merchant of sorts? When did that become a thing? Has that always been a thing? I don't know. It's not a great phrase. I never thought of it until just now.

deeper than... It's a terrible phrase. It doesn't mean anything. I also think it's like if you're scoring goals, it's not easy to score goals on the power play. Everyone would do it if it was easy. It's really important to do it too, right? Like that's what you're supposed to score goals.

The only time that I, that power play numbers that I try to like shrug, like look through some of them is if you're getting a bunch of secondary assists on the power play, like the guy that's just quarterbacking it, he's the defenseman back there and he's just, all he's doing is handed it. And he's sitting there on the half.

half wall and you just make you start the play and then like it goes around yeah exactly you're you're right now. The goal and primary assists on power plate, I don't care. They're just as valuable as they already destroyed. Right. Now, you know, so dry sidle is a great pick right now, but I'm still, I'm clinging to Carill Capriza right now. He hasn't played since before Christmas, depending on how long he's out and how much he misses, it affects things.

But he's plus 17 at five on five. Like there's nobody close to that right now. He is the most important player on a team that we didn't expect. this from. Edmonton's supposed to be competitive. Colorado's supposed to be competitive. Minnesota is by definition the most mediocre team in the league year after year after year. And Carrillo Caprizov has been just a mega star this year. And he's the reason more than anything else that they are one of the top five teams in the league right now. So if Caprizo can get healthy and get back in the lineup and continue to play the way he plays, I think it could be one of those like, remember Taylor Hall when

he won with the Devils where it was just him and the drop off to the second best player was so vast that there was just no way you could deny him that he was more valuable than other players. You know, McDavid and Dryside will have each other. McKinnon, McCar, and Randon and have each other. You know, Caprizo doesn't have that. That's exactly where I was going to the odds. Like you just like if you go to the odds page and you look real quick and they've got their little logos next to them, it's like it stands out pretty quickly that, oh, there's three aves in the top 10.

You see all these abs logos. Oh, there's all these Edmonton logos. and the Minnesota Wild and go try to find whose second highest in heart odds for the Minnesota Wild. Might be Devin Dubnick still. Yeah, there isn't anyone on there.

So yes, I totally agree with you if you're going with the forwards, or with the skaters, I think Caprizov is probably would be my favorite also because of that like you just said laid out. He doesn't have the Batman to his Robin the way these other candidates do. He's kind of doing it all on his own here.

I mean, Minnesota has good players, but they don't have anyone else that's on an elite level like Caprisov. Speaking of those odds, what do our friends at BetMGM have in terms of the heart? Yeah, so like I said earlier, Connor McDavid's the favorite. We don't even really talk about him because at this point, it's just obvious that Connor McDavid is up there. He's at plus 300, so three to one on your money if you bet on Connor McDavid. Nathan McKinnon and Caprizov are both right behind him at plus 350 and plus 360,

so pretty close. A little bit of a drop down to dry sidelines. at plus 550 and then Connor Hellebuck at plus 600. If I was going to pick a dark horse, I was looking at some of the guys that are like over a thousand plus a thousand. I like Jack Eichol. I get to see him every night here in Vegas. He's plus 2,800 to win the awards, so 28 to 1.

And he is the Golden Knights have the best record in the NHL right now. So best player on the best team. He is everything for the Golden Knights. He's on pace to break 100 points for the first time in his career. He's never scored more than 82. So he is shattering all previous career highs as long as he can stay healthy. He's their number one penalty killer. He's the guy that quarterbacks the power play.

He does everything at five on five. And like we mentioned about Caprisoff, Jack Eichel, he plays with some role players, Ivan Barboshev, Pavl Dorofiev. Now he's playing with Tanner Pearson lately. And whoever you put on his wing, they cannot stop scoring. It doesn't matter if it's Tanner Pearson. Jonathan Marshall, so scored all the goals last year. He leaves in free agency.

Doesn't matter. Put a guy who's capable of playing in the NHL on Jack Eichl's wing, and he's going to score an insane number of goals. I feel like Jack Eichl's reputation, his standing in this league is at second-tier star, right? He is not in the conversation with all the guys that we've been talking about, your McDavid, your McKinnons, your dry-sitals, your Kutcherovs. what does he have to do to make that leap? What has to happen this year?

It's hard. You know, it's happened in Edmonton because those two guys are just so spectacular. But it's hard for a West Coast, you know, Pacific time zone guy to kind of get that kind of notice. What has to happen for Jack Egel to make that leap this year in the public? He's already made it on the ice. But what does he have to do to make it in the public's eye, you think? I think he needs to get into that hundred point. Like these guys, the guys you all mentioned, they're all triple digits every year.

Like the NHL, 100 points is becoming less impressive as the years go on because like every year we see more and more guys doing it. But I think Ikel has to get to that point. The problem with Ikel in terms of just getting to 100 points is he's always hurt. He misses a month almost every season. Like he rarely gets anywhere near the full game. So you're not going to hit 100 points if you're missing a month in the season unless you're on an insane pace like McDavid was last year. But I think he needs to hit that hundred point mark. He needs to be top five in scoring, something like that.

And like playoff success, sure, but I mean, he already was, he already led the Golden Cup and he was the best player. He didn't win MVP because Marsha, so, who he was feeding all the goals to one MVP. But yeah, no, I think that to me, he needs to be in that top five in scoring. He's, to me, he's doing a lot more defensively than these other guys. I wrote a story about Eichols' heart candidacy, and I started digging into some of the defensive numbers. And it is a drastic difference between Ikel and all these other guys.

Like he's, he's at 16.7% of his shifts start in the defensive zone. No of, none of those guys we mentioned in the top five, McDavid, McKinnon, Capri Sov drives out. None of them are above 9%. And Ickel's at 16.7%. You look at Connor McDavid plays 3.6% of the penalty killing minutes for the Edmonton Oilers, 3%.

McKinnon 3.4. Caprizov 0.0. Jack Eichael plays 48.5% of the penalty killing minutes for the Vegas golden nights. That is spectacular. And the reason is because he's so good at it. Bruce Cassidy, it does not matter the situation. Offensive defense is power play penalty kill. Put Jack Eichael out there. He's the best player on the ice.

I think he belongs in that conversation. But in order to get there, you've got to get to that 100, 110 point threshold that that these other guys are getting to. Boy, we've come a long way since Jamie Ben won the scoring title with 89 points, haven't we? maybe it's the four nations tournament. Maybe if he blows up there, that's a high profile event. Maybe that gets him in the conversation. I don't know, but we need to pay more attention to Jack Eichol, which is a silly thing to say, but it's true.

It's true. We tend to get these tunnel vision and focus on the same five guys every year, which brings us to the Norris, which it seems like every year is the toughest one to determine. It's always been the narrative award where it's this guy's turn, but we've kind of graduated from that, where everyone who was in that conversation, short of maybe Charlie McAvoy got one. So here we are. Here we are with Kail McCar, Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenski. I mean, he's right behind McCar and points. Like McCar is 49 points.

Okay, so Cal McCar has 49 points in 41 games. He's on pace for 98. So if he picks that up a little bit, he can join Eric Carlson as the only defenseman with 100 points in the last 30 years. It's a pretty amazing pace he's on. Zach Werenski is three. points behind him with 46 points. Like he's almost, he's almost doing it silently in Columbus.

We're not paying that close of attention, but it's pretty impressive what he's doing. Like especially, I mean, like I said, three points behind McCar on a team that's not as, I mean, the blue jackets can score, but he doesn't have the same kind of weapons that McCar. No, not at all. He's moving the puck up to. I, I like to look at the relative stats. I think that's a, that's an important one here. Werenski, the, the blue jackets are plus 12 at five on five.

When Worenski's on the ice, they're minus 11 without him. that's pretty drastic. But I look at the, but then you go to Quinn Hughes and his numbers are even more spectacular. The Canucks are up 40 to 22 when Quinn Hughes is on the ice. They're getting outscored 52 to 41 without him. The guy misses a couple of weeks. He immediately comes back and gets two assists against Montreal.

You look at the high danger chances allowed, which I think that's my, that's my favorite defensive stat, right? Your rate of high danger chances you give up. Now, mind that takes a save percentage out and the goals against is more of a team step, but how many high danger chances are they score when you're on the ice? Quinn Hughes, it's 9.63 per 60. Kail McCar, it's 9.36, even better because he just has the puck all the time.

Werenski is 12.44. Now, he's on a much worse team. I get it. He's on a worst team. You have to kind of grade on a curve there when you're talking about the blue jackets versus the Canucks and the avalanche, but it's an uphill climb for Werensky. It's great that he's in this conversation. It feels like every year we get like a newcomer into that,

that realm of Norris candidate. Last year was Gustav Forsling. And now everybody knows that Gustav Forsling is one of the best defense in the league. You know, we've seen that with like, uh, Josh Morrissey, Adam Dunn, yeah, with these guys every year that someone kind of creeps in. And I'm glad Worensky's in that conversation, but I don't think he's with Hughes and McCarion.

I'm going Hughes. He just, I don't think anybody, any skater influences the game as much as Quinn Hughes does. Yeah, that's a great way to put it. When I watch Canucks games, it's impossible not to notice Quinn Hughes. Like, he just stands out so much. He's the way, the way he brings the puck up the ice, the way he backs. I feel like you usually hear that term used for forwards, like backing the defense off.

But when Quinn Hughes gets the fuck, the entire defense is like, whoa, we got to get back because if you don't, he'll be behind you before you blink. He, he is so dynamic. It's between him and McCar, it's so tough. I just think they're both. I think they're clearly the two most talented defensemen in the league. Like I just think that there's a gap between those two and the rest. And I think the person that wins it is the person that has the strongest, like last month of the season that leaves that lasting impression, whoever finishes strong down the stretch because to me it is a two horse race between those two.

And the narrative, the narrative just, you know, won't come into play because they both have won the Norris before. So it's going to be kind of a, I think a more pure race. And that's, I think that's the one I'm most excited to watch. watch down the stretch because it's just so hard to pick that you really got to zoom in on those two and they're two of the most fun guys in the league to watch play when they are when the puck's on their stick it's that McDavid effect where it kind of just draws you out of your seat you just start leaning forward a little bit like oh my god what's this guy going to do right so i love watching those guys play what do the uh what does bet mjm have yeah so we the the odds for the heart were

very close uh the norris odds are not close so if you agree with mark and i that quinn hughes is right there uh now's the time to strike uh kale mccar leading the way at minus 500. Minus minus 500. For any non-betters out there, that means you have to bet $500 on Kelmikar to win $100 if he wins the award. It is a heavy, heavy favorite. Quinn Hughes is second, but he's plus 350.

So three and a half to one odds on Quinn Hughes. It is a pretty big gap between him and McCar. Zach Werenski is third at plus 600. And then there is a massive jump. Josh Morrissey in Winnipeg is fourth, but he is 6,600. So 66 to 1, you go from 6 to 1 to 66 to 1 from 3rd to 4th there. Jacob Chikrin, who's having an awesome year. Also, he's at 80 to 1.

So yeah, so after those top three, basically, the odds say that those three are the only ones with a shot at it. God, that is wild to be only halfway to the season to have a guy at minus 500. And like, I can see that for Hellobuck with the Vesna, but for any other category, it should not be that much of its disparity. Wow. All right, well, let's move on to the Calder here, which is another hotly debated one this year. Last year we had Connor Bedard versus Brock Faber, Forward versus Defense, 18 year old versus 21 year old, big Midwest fight. That just, you know, Russo and me were just, you know, just jarring that one all year, trying to scoop as many clicks as we could out of that one. This is supposed to be a two-man race,

right? This is supposed to be Macklin-Selebrine again Matt Bay Mitchcoff, but here comes Lane Hudson with a bullet, your leading rookie score, Montreal defenseman Lane Hudson. What do you got here? Man, that kid can skate. Holy crap. Montreal was here in Vegas the other night, and he stands out big time when you watch him play live. Like, he flies.

We talk about McCar and Hughes, like just how they do things on skates that defy the laws of physics. I feel like Lane Hudson, if he continues his trajectory, he's right there with him. And Celebrini, I've seen close up how bad the sharks are. I have to watch them more than I'd like to. He has single-handedly made that team fun to watch. And to me, that's worth an award. We should give him a trophy for that.

Making the sharks worth watching is an award. Is that like that gold float for like box office achievement? Yes. He made it possible to watch the sharks and actually enjoy yourself. Man, that kid is special. And he's, I was Bruce Cassidy, Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy was talking about him after the game the other day. And he doesn't just do the flashy moves.

Like if you don't stay up late and watch the sharks, you'll see the flashy highlights. And he's got plenty of those. He's a hell of a passer. He's got great vision. He has a good shot. But he battles along the walls. He's winning neutral zone stick battles. Like that's what the sharks need.

And the kid is awesome. Celebrini, to me, is the best rookie. You know, I've got a goalie to mention, though. Dustin Wolf. Oh, I know Dustin Wolf is there. He's there. Incredibly well. This is a kid who he's undersized.

He's undersized. He's 6-1, which in goalie terms is you're way too small. That's a Darren Pang. He's undersized. Right, exactly. And that's why he wasn't a super high draft pick. But since he's been drafted, he has risen up the prospect rankings. He was highly touted coming into this year.

Calgary trades Jacob Markstrom away to clear the way for Dustin Wolf to come in. Wasn't sure what the initial results would be. Man, he's awesome. Right off the bat. He's already 11th in the NHL and goals saved above expected with 10. He's 12th in save percentage. And to me, I like to compare goalie partners to each other because like I said earlier, the team in front of you influences goalie stats heavily.

If there's a massive gap between the two goalies, both playing behind the same defense, it tells you something. Dan Vladar, who is a capable NHL backup. You are happy with Vladar as your backup. He's not a starter. He's not a great goalie, but he's a solid backup. He's got minus 4.74 goals saved don't have expected and an 890 save percentage because Calgary doesn't defend very well.

Dustin Wolf in his first actual NHL season is putting up spectacular numbers behind that. think he definitely belongs in the conversation. He probably won't be there at the end with Celebrini and Mitchcoff and Hudson, but I think he definitely deserves a mention. Isn't that the path to having a high goal saved above expected is to play behind a crappy defense? Well, Connor Hellebuck's got 32 of him and he's playing behind a pretty good defense. That's true. With drawn. I think you're right. Okay, but like in a small sample size, you're right. Because in order to get a huge game where you saved five goals above expected, well, the other team's got to have five expected goals in order for you to get to that.

So you do have to have bad defense. But the problem is you can't play behind a defense like that and regularly not give up six goals a night. So it's eventually going to break you and you're going to have one of those games where you give up six goals and all those goals saved above expected that you've built up just disintegrate. So yes, you do need to have some shots against to build those up. But if it's consistently bad, it is very difficult to keep those numbers.

long term. I think Celebrini's going to run away with this by the end of the year. He's going to make up that gap from the injury that he had and he's just going to have so many points and he's going to deserve it. He's a phenomenal two-way player at his age. It's really incredible to watch. I just want to give Mitchcoff and Hudson some love here though. Mitchcoff, I feel like he's kind of fading from the conversation.

He had that incredible start. He was scoring overtime winners left and right. Everyone was saying the Blackhawks should have taken him over Connor Bedard and all this stuff was happening. He, you know, even if he's not scoring quite as much as he was earlier in the year. He is analytically speaking, Philly's second best forward behind only Tyson Forster. He's a really good player who affects the game in a really positive way, even when he's not scoring.

He's going to be really good for a long time. And Hudson, I feel like the narrative on Hudson is that he is just tremendously sheltered in Montreal. And that's not really true. I mean, no, he's not being used like David Savard is. But 54% ozone starts. That's not super sheltered. He's pretty evenly split.

They're comfortable using him in the defensive end. He's not a huge liability. He's a positive player at five on five. He is an extraordinary rookie. Mitch Kopp is an extraordinary rookie. Dustin Wolf is an extraordinary rookie. I think Celebrini is just going to run away with it anyway, though, because he's a different level of extraordinary.

I agree with you. It's a good class of rookies. Like the top. They're really good. What does a bet MGM have? Selabini at minus 45,000? No, but he is my last one. He is minus.

Minus 240 for Macklin Celebrini right now. So 240 bucks wins you 100. Lane Hudson is second at plus 300. Matveh Mischkov is third at plus 575. And Dustin Wolf is a long way down at fourth place at plus 6,000. So this is a three horse race according to those odds. So after this conversation, to me, it sounds like Wolf is the value, considering I think that those four belong.

in the conversation, but it probably won't be a goalie. Jesse, winning $0.00 does not make value for you. So I do not listen to Jesse Granger. We are not betting experts. Do not bet your farm on Dustin Wolf. I live in Vegas, but I am not a bet against. He is. Dustin Wolf is not going to win. He's a great young player.

He is not going to win the Calder Trophy. All right. That's three down. We got six to go. We'll be right back after this. All right, we're back. This one's not going to take very long, Jesse. who's going to win the Vezna trophy this year?

Connor Hellebuck. All right. Yeah, Connor Hellebuck. The end. Okay, well, we usually wait until the end for the odds, but it's so obvious on this one. We'll just start with the odds. Connor Halebuck is minus 1250 to win the Vesna,

which means you have to bet $1,250 on Connor Halebuck in order to win $100 if he wins the Vesna four months from now. It's not a great bet. I, you mentioned it that last year he faded in March. It is like I was mentioning when we were talking about how you add up the goal saved of what expected. It takes weeks and weeks and months of work to build up these goals saved above expected and they can disintegrate in a period because it's so easy for your team.

I mean, we saw it with Hellebuck against Colorado in the first round last year. Seven goals can go in very easily. If Connor Hellebuck were to stumble, let's talk about the rest of them. because as long as he maintains a reasonable pace, he's got this in the bag. He's going to be... I just want to see, we haven't had a 10 shutout guy

since Mark Andre Fleury 10 years ago. That's kind of what I want to. He's on pace for 10 shutouts right now, which in the modern NHL is crazy. He's doing things. We haven't seen a goalie do since, like, the 90s era when it was the dead puck and all the goalies were putting up insane stats.

He's pretty unreal. He's also going to be, if he wins this one, he'll be the first three-time winner in a very, very long time. We have Bobrovsky, who's won two. Tim Thomas won two before that. You've got to go way back.

Probably Hachik would be my guess without looking. I think it's been a long time since we've had a three-time winner. So because it's just so hard to consistently put up stats at this position. But like if you're looking, okay, let's just say, Hellebuck has a bad march. Who else can possibly jump in there? To me, the one that stands out that he's injured right now, so we're not talking a lot about him, but Igor Shasturkin is playing behind a train wreck.

And yet, I still don't think we're giving him enough credit, especially when you look at the odds, because Connor Hellebuck is minus $12.50. It's insane. The other guys, like Philip Gustafson in Minnesota, is 8 to 1. Jacob Markstrom, 45 to 1. Joey DeCord in Seattle is up there too. Igor Shisterkin is 10,000 plus 10,000 to win the Bezina. So 100 to 1 win the Bezina.

If you look at the Rangers odds as a team, they are currently plus 240 to make the playoffs, which gives you an implied percentage of 29%. So the betting odds, and by the way, Dom's calculations on the athletic give the Rangers a 20% chance to win the playoffs. I'm sorry, to make the playoffs. So they've got somewhere between 20 and 30% chance to make the playoffs where they're at right now. If this team makes the playoffs, Igor Shostarkins winning the Vesna trophy because holy crap, has he done some work back there?

No, no. No. This team is. No. You are, you're 100% correct and you're forgetting one key thing. The general managers vote on the Vezna, not the writers. And Igor Shestrkin will not have nearly enough wins to get the Vesna because that's what we care about. It's such nonsense. And like we've, we've been talking about the goal save of expected when it comes to goalies. Igor Shasturkin has been playing behind this disaster of a team and he's been injured. He still has 16.4 goals, say above expected. He's fourth in the league, despite playing behind a team that gives up, and like he gives up six goals a night. You watch him. He stands on his head. He makes eight spectacular saves, two save of the year candidates every night and still gives up six

goals. I think that if the Rangers were to, again, this is under the assumption that Connor Hellebuck stumbles. I do not think Shisterken has a chance to catch Hellebuck as long as Hellebuck plays well. If Hellebuck takes himself out of the conversation somehow, I think Schisturkin's got as good of a chance as anyone because everyone knows how bad this Rangers team is. It's been such a big narrative story of how bad they are. If he comes back from injury and this team rallies and they make the playoffs and he leads the league and save percentage, which he's not that far off, even though he's playing behind this bad defense, I think if there's someone out there who has a chance at stealing us from

Connor Hellebuck, it's Shisterc. You know what's better than getting credit, getting 90s? $92 million. Yes. All right, let's move on to the Selke. I think the Selke, I keep saying this, the Selke is one of the trickier ones to forecast, because everyone's kind of got their own definition of this award.

Is it defensive forward or is it two-way forward? Does it have to be a center because you have to take face-offs? Or can it be a winger? I spent years banging the drum from Marian Hosa, who it's absurd that he never won a Selke trophy. He's the best two-way forward I've ever covered, but he was a winger, so he never was even in the talk. It's tough because if you really dig through the numbers here,

Carolina kind of wrecks the curve. You could have this is like the statistical case for Jordan Martin Hook and Jordan Stahl and Seth Jarvis, William Carrier, Eric Robinson, in terms of shot attempts for 60, just pure shot suppression, the very definition of defense, four of the top five and five of the top 11 are hurricanes. So then they start splitting the vote too because Martinuk deserves it just as much as Stahl, who deserves it just as much as Jarvis. So they kind of knock each other out. And then you get Barkoff versus Reinhart.

Ryanhart, I was so glad to see that Dom had Reinhardt at the top of his list earlier this week when he did his awards watch. Because I feel like nobody gives Sam Reinhart the credit that Barkov gets. Look, Barkaw is going to win this. He's the new Bergeron. They might as well rename this thing, the Barkov Bergeron Award. And Barkov deserves it. But so does Sam Reinhart. He, the high danger scoring chances against at five on five, who's really making it tough to

score. Reinhardt has been the top guy in that category all season and by just a comically huge margin. I mean, he's playing with Barkov, so it's all kind of linked. That's always the problem with a dynamic sport like this is determining who has the most singular impact. But, you know, Barkov is fifth in that category. Reinhardt's like 20% higher at number one overall. And we never seem to talk about him in the selfie. Yep. And he also leads the league in expected goals against per 60, which similar high danger chances. and expected goals are kind of kind of go hand in hand. But yeah, Ryan Hart's first.

And he scores a ton. So if you're a two-way forward guy, he certainly fits the bill. It's definitely hard to argue against it. But like you said, I think that they could split the votes between them, just like the Carolina guys. A couple other guy, I think you nailed it with all those candidates. A couple of the people that I, like the names that I don't see as much is, well, for one, I'll throw Eichl's name out there.

All those defensive numbers that I gave when talking about the heart fit this trophy as well. He is everything for the Vegas Golden Knights and takes all the toughest shifts, all the toughest matchups, and still going to put up 100 points. So I think Iko belongs in the conversation. And then I think another name is Nico Heeshir. The Devils are not the best defensive team in the league. So their numbers are not, his numbers are not going to be as good as the Carolina guys. But when I watch Devils games, Nico Heeshire stands out as he's taking defensive zone draws. He's very good along the walls.

I think he's probably the best defensive forward on that team. on a team that's really, really good. I think he's a big part of that. So I think he sure deserves a little bit of mention there. You know, Anthony Sorrelli is always around this discussion and deservedly so. But another guy in the lightning that really should get this kind of credit is Brandon Hagle, who has turned himself into a fabulous two-way player, kills penalties, great in his own end, scores a ton at the other end.

It's really just a very, really good kind of, like that second tier player we're talking about, where he's not the megastar, but he's the kind of player that makes a good team. great. And I think he deserves some recognition as a two-way forward because he's really kind of added that to his game since he's been to Tampa. He scores a bunch too. I have him in fantasy so I get an update every time someone scores. I didn't realize how good Hegel was until I got an update every time he got a point. I'm like, this guy has a point every night, it seems like. He's awesome. He is, he is an all-star caliber year after year. He consistently does this. And he just, he keeps getting better every year. It seems. I remember when he was here in Chicago,

he was like an energy guy. And he was like, he worked really hard to get to the NHL. And he's going to prove everybody wrong. And then all of a sudden he spiked like a 20 goal season. And then they trade, all of a sudden he was worthy of two first round graphics. So they traded him.

And now he's turned into just a terrific, terrific player who does deserve something. He's not going to beat some of the guys that we were just talking about. Probably not even going to beat out Anthony Sorrelli, his own teammate, but he belongs in that conversation. What are the odds here? This is always an interesting one to see what the odds are,

because sometimes it's not. not the same as those of us that are like eyeballs deep in this stuff, see? They don't have odds for it. Because I think the odds makers are as unsure as we all are. And they're like, you know what? Let's not even give people a chance to make money on this. We don't know what we're doing. There are currently no odds for the Selke trophy.

There are also no odds for the Lady Bing, which involves every writer going to the NHL.com slash stats, clicking on penalty minutes and ascending order. and then seeing who has a lot of points next to those penalty minutes, the fewest penalty minutes. It's great. Just a trophy that we're all just kind of flailing about on. We don't know what it's supposed to mean. It's a tricky one.

It is. I always try to argue like guys that are, I don't know, I always try to argue Mark Andre Fleury for that award because I feel like he's on my ballot like every year. You know, there was a push. There was a push to get defensemen on there because it's harder to stay out of the box

defensively. and I think Jacob Slavin finally got it, and we were all happy with ourselves, patting ourselves on the back for getting that one in. And now that's part. But is taking a penalty? Is that unsportsmanlike? Is hooking a guy on a breakaway to save a goal?

Is that unsportsman like? Like, we don't know what these guys are saying to each other on the ice? What do we, I don't want to get moving back to the league. But I don't think anybody would try. Give the refs the vote. Let officials a vote on the lady being. They know who the most gentlemanly players are. No one knows who the most.

most gentlemanly player is more than the referees. Greg Wasinski's been beating that drum for a decade and he's absolutely right. Let's move on to the Jack. Why do we always call it the Jack Adams? Do you even know the first names of most of the other awards? Why isn't it just the Adams Award? You bring up things that I never think of. I wonder.

I ask the hard questions. Why I've gone my whole life without ever thinking about, I just, I don't know. I never think about these things. I mean, we know the first names to the other people. We just don't ever say it when talking about George Bezina. James Norris, James Norris, right? Yes, Frank Selke.

Did you know, oh, that's right, Frank Selke. I know that because when my daughter was like four, she was obsessed with the Selke trophy because of this little board book we had, that was like hockey ABCs or those hockey shapes and it was like a hexagon. The Frank J. Selke trophy is a hexagon. So like they, she'd be watching the Stanley Cup and guy would host the Stanley Cup. who gets the Frank Day Selky trophy. I miss those days.

Art Ross is another one that we use both names. We use both names with the Hart Rocks. Why? I don't know. The Hart trophy isn't even named after a player. It's named after the dad of an old Canadian's coach. Seriously. I didn't know that.

What the hell are we doing here? Why haven't we renamed these like the Gretzky and the Orr and the Bergeron? Like, what are we waiting for here? Yeah, they probably should. the dad of a Canadian's coach. That's what the most important individual trophy in hockey is named after. What are we doing here? Anyway, who do you like?

Jack Adams, it's going to be Spencer Carberry, right? Yep. I mean, like, it's always the team that exceeds expectations, but it's usually because the coach who has the hot goalie, but yes, Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren are playing well, but the capitals are just a wagon right now. And I can't figure out how. Like I'm still waiting.

Max Boltman is supposed to explain to me why the capitals are good. Because every time I watch them, I'm like, they shouldn't have the record they have. Like it is absolute witchcraft. What the Washington capitals are doing this year, it's incredible. And, you know, Spencer Carberry is going to win and probably deserve it at that point. But I just feel like, you know, John Heinz, in Minnesota, Dean Eveson and Columbus. What Dean Eveson is doing in Columbus under some of the most extreme circumstances

we've ever seen in professional sports. Yep. After the Godrokes tragedy over the summer, it's incredible. They are in the thick of a playoff race, a team that was supposed to be just wallowing in last place and in all they've gone through for that team to come together and do what they're doing. That's as incredible as anything I've seen in the league this year. Yeah, I agree.

It's a good race. We kind of say Carberry, and he is the heavy favorite right now, but there are plenty of deserving candidates. And there are also coaches that are coaching really talented teams that are doing incredibly well. They'll never have a chance to. Like Bruce Cassidy has been nothing but brilliant since he came to Vegas, obviously won a cup is now leading them to the best record in the league. And their structure is just so good. The Golden Knights may not have. I mean, they've got a really talented roster.

They probably don't have the most talented roster in the NHL, but their structure is just better than everyone. And they win games when they're not at their best because their structure is so good. I think Cassidy deserves some credit. I think Sheldon Keefe in New Jersey deserve some credit. That team, yes, there's a lot of talent there. But we watched that talent go down the drain last year. And he's got them playing really well. I think there are a lot of good coaches that deserve.

I think we take Rod Brindamore for granted too. I know for years we always said how we took John Cooper for granted. Rod Brindamore, that he's just built this factory there where it doesn't matter who leaves, who comes. It just always works. 100% like the lifetime achievement as a coach to be able to consistently do that. We sleep on Rod Rindamore a little bit too much too. I agree. The bet MGM odds for it, Carberry, heavy favorite, minus 450 at the top.

John Heinz is second at plus 700. Eveson is plus 1,200. Scott Arneill plus 1,400, Bruce Cassidy plus 1,600, Sheldon Keefe plus 3,000. So pretty evenly split after those top two guys, but Carberry and Heinz are the clear favorites, according to the odds. And a reminder to our listeners, the broadcasters vote on the Adams. Again, don't yell at us if it goes wrong. We are going to take one last break here. We got three more awards to go, two of them that exist.

One of them that does not, but should. We'll be right back. All right. We're going to wrap up our midseason awards race look here with two that aren't really voted on. They're just one. the we'll start with the Rocket Richard, which is the leading goal score. Right now is Leon Drysidal.

I don't see that changing. I think Leon Drysidl is going to have 50, 55 goals this year and run away with it. Yeah, I have a hard time seeing anyone catching him. He's just every night a goal or two. And he's the best there. Like if it was a player that surprised us, oh, some guy that came out of nowhere, well, maybe he'll fall off.

I don't think any of us see Leon Drysidal falling off anytime soon. And he's got a five goal lead. over Braden Point and Miko Ranton in and second. Both very good players, but dry sidles is stud, and I just don't see him slowing down at all. I think he's going to run. Do you think he gets to 60? He's at 29.

They've played 40 games, and he's at 29. You think he gets to 60? If he sniffs it, he'll get it. If he's close at the end, he's the kind of guy that can basically score it will. Miko Ranton, I think he's got seven empty net goals now this year. Hey, they all count. And Gretzky and Ovetkin are the all-time leaders in empty net goals, too.

They count. Those are important goals. But if he can get a few more empty netters, he might be able to launch himself into the race there. You know who's fun to see on this list when I look at like the top 10 goal scores? Cole Caulfield in Montreal with 22. The kid that does nothing but score every level he's at. And yet when he was coming in the draft,

there was so many like questions like, oh, is he big enough? Is he going to be able to do it at the highest level? And the answer is yes, he's got a rocket of a shot. And he's currently got 22 goals. So seven behind dry. So he's got a little way to go, but he's still in the top 10.

Braden Point is shooting almost 30% this year. He's got 24 goals. It feels like that's sustainable with him, though. That's just what he does, right? I mean, he just scores at incredible rates. Mark Schifley's on the list. That's not a name we've seen up there in a long time. It's so much fun that the NHL is so offensive again, right?

Like, again, we talk about Jamie Ben winning the scoring title with 89 points in 2014. Like, at that point, we were like, we're never going to see a 50 goals. goal score again, let alone a 60 goal score, let alone a 70 goal score like Matthews almost had last year. It's just, it's fun that the league has this much just incredible talent. And like you mentioned, young talent, like Cole Caulfield coming in, Celebrini, Badard's going to get up there. It's, it's a pretty fun time right now. It is. Even a goalie guy can appreciate that because the more goals, the tougher it is for those guys, the more saves you get to see. It's been awesome. And what's interesting is, I was looking at the stats. The goals keep going up, the safe percentages keep going

down. What's interesting is the shots are not going up. So teams are not taking more shots. They're taking better shots. You're getting more skilled offensive players that are holding at the extra second, looking for that extra pass. It's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's it's not gone up. They've actually gone down if anything. Um, and the goals are going up. These guys are so good. It's unbelievable. The opposite of what we were talking about in Carolina where they'll just shoot from anywhere at all times. Right. So let's move on to the R. Keeping that average.

Carolina single-handedly keeping the league average of shots per game. Just because they had a shot attempt they didn't like. You raise a good point, though, because you'd think with the increase in scoring that we'd be seeing 35 to 40 shots per game all of a sudden. But it's still in that high 20s, your average game, it's like 29, 26, 34 to 29. Like, we're not seeing a huge increase. It's just we're seeing better shooters. We're seeing these guys that can just pick any quarter that can bank it off the back of a goalie's head. I know you love those reverse V8.

H goals from the sharp angles. We're just seeing more and more guys that not only can do that, but are willing to try doing it. They also don't waste shots. There was an interview of Andre Vasselowski by Kevin Woodley at NHL.com. Great article talking about the safe percentage going down. And Vasilevsky said it is so noticeable compared to when he entered the league that you used to have like however many saves a game that were just like BS saves that anyone

could make. They just throw it at me. Yeah, just throw it at me. And he's like these players, they're so good offensively. they do not waste shots. They view a shot where the goalie sees everything as just a turnover, basically. You're just giving the puck away. So these guys are holding it and trying to find that better shot and more goals,

less saves. It's tougher. All right. Let's move on to the Art Ross again, using the first name, very strange. Nathan McKinnon leads the league in points right now at 66. If you go to points per game,

he is 0.01 ahead of Nikita Kuthorup going into, that does not include Wednesday night's game against the Black Hawk. so that might have changed a tiny little bit. But man, there are five players at over 1.47 points per game right now. McKinnon, Kutrov, McDavid, David, dry-sidal, Caprizov. Caprizo probably can't get there because the time he's missing. But can McKinnon hold on to this? He's been just insanely good lately.

He has. I think if there's someone that's going to catch him, it's probably McDavid, just because I feel like he's like on a cold street. I mean, like he's still insane numbers. He's so bad this year. For his standards, it's, seems like with how good he is and the type of chances he creates, it seems like the puck is not going in for him as much or off of the stick of guys he's setting up. So I think that he's due for a hot

month where the puck just goes in for the Edmonton Oilers and he's going to catch guys real quick. So if I were a betting man right now, I think McDavid is probably the guy I would give the best chance to catch McKinney because it just feels like these other guys are running hot and he's running cold and yet he's still right there with them. Yeah, he's got 55 points in 37 games. He's, he's the that can get seven points in two games, like relatively easily. Like he doesn't have to break a sweat to do it. You know what? I'm going to pick dry sidle here.

I just feel like he's having the kind of year where, you know, he's got the new contract. He wants to be the alpha, even though he's on the same team as McDavid. He wants to kind of reassert himself a little bit. Like, look, I'm not Robin here. We're just two batmans, right? Or is it Batman? I don't even know what the proper grammar would be for Batman. But I feel like he's sensitive.

And another question that I had never considered in my life. now you've got me thinking about. I'm just asking questions, man. I'm just asking questions. But he, I feel like he's having that kind of season, and he's going to be sniffing 50, 60 goals that might spur him on to just a monster early April here.

And he's just another guy that, you know, especially on the same power play as Connor McDavid could just get so many points, so quick and as great as Nathan McKinan and Amico Randton are, and they are great. They aren't dry sidle in McDavid in terms of just sheer volume of points that they can attain. So I'm going to go a little, you know, it's not not much of a stretch, not too far out on a limb,

but I'm going to go with Leon Drysidl sweeping the Ross and the Richard. I like it. The one that stands out, and this is for both awards, just looking at Drysidal's numbers, he's got nine game winning goals already this year. He's on pace for 19 game winning goals. Like, if you score 20 goals in the NHL, that's a hell of a season. Like you scored 20 goals in the NHL. He's going to do it with just game winners.

What is going on? These guys are unreal. It's crazy. It's crazy. All right. For our last award of the evening, we're going to be giving out the Rod Langway Award. Is that what we're going with?

That's what James Myrtle coined it. I remember the PHWA. We were doing midseason awards like, I don't know, nine, ten years ago. And we had a Rod Langway Award for Best Defensive Defenseman. I think you could go with Nicholas Jalmersson. There's a lot of phenomenal defensive players that we've seen over the years. And they tend to get overlooked because they don't get the points.

And, you know, your definition of best all around defensemen is a little dicey last year. you very well could have made an argument. It was Gustav Foresling with the middley amount of points you had because it was all around game. So who are you looking at it? If you're looking for purely defensive defensemen here, like again, the Selke award doesn't go to the best defensive forward. It goes to the best two way forward.

So otherwise, like the David Camps of the world would be in the mix. So let's talk about defensive defensemen, not the best two way defenseman, defensive defenseman. Who do you got? I'm going to bring up a name. And this is not an, there are probably people out there that don't even. know this guy exists, but I'm going to bring him up because he doesn't get enough credit. I see him here every night in Vegas.

Braden McNabb is a sensational defensive defenseman. He currently leads all defensemen in plus minus plus 24. And he does this every year, every year in Vegas. The guys, he does nothing but kill penalties. He gets no power play time. He gets no offensive zone time. The guy gets the toughest assignments every year. He's usually near the league league lead in blocks.

He's kind of toned the hitting down a little bit under Bruce Cassidy's system. He doesn't get his big hip checks that he used to get that would get him on the highlight reels. So he gets no highlight reels. All he's doing is all the grunt work in front of the net. Vegas is one of the best defensive teams in the league. And I think Braden McNabb is the cornerstone of that defense. Like Vegas has Alex Petrangelo, Shay Theodore, Noah Hanifin. They get all the highlights. They're not the reason Vegas is the best defensive team.

It's Braden McNabb. I think he deserves more credit. He's not going to score many goals, so not many people are going to think of him in terms of the best anything, I don't think. But he is a great defensive defenseman that doesn't get enough credit. You know, New Jersey's Jonas Siegenthallor is giving up the fewest high danger chances per game to 7.48 for 60, which for a defenseman is just, it's absolutely insane. He deserves some recognition here. I feel like Jacob Slaving could win this award every year. He's kind of the best defensive defenseman for the last era here.

but I kind of lean Chris Tanev here. You know, he, you know, he's six in the league at 8.26 high danger chances against per 60. So he's shutting you down, but he's also eating 8.5, six shots per 60. He is hurling himself in front of Pucks left and right. That's in the Nicholas Jalmersen spirit of the award of just guys who are just willing to do anything to prevent a goal. I think Chris Tanev is the guy I would lead right now if I were voting in this award. Yeah, the blocks are, to me, me one of the best numbers when you're looking at this.

Like Trubas up there, too, even bouncing from team to team. Ian Cole in Utah. Ian Cole has been very good for Utah. He's up there in the top and blocks. A guy that he's been hurt and he's a little past his prime. But if this award existed, he would have won a few of them and you've got to see him in Chicago. Alec Martinez is a guy that to me fits this kind of mold. He's obviously not up for this award this year.

But yeah, I like all these names we've come up with. Yeah, giving a Chicago Black Hawk a defense. award this year would be quite a leap of a leap of faith. He was good in L.A. He was good in L.A., too. He had the greatest two weeks in hockey history when he scored the overtime game winner in game seven of the Western Conference final and then scored the overtime cup winner.

Nobody's ever had a better two weeks in the history of hockey than Alec Martinez did in 2014. All right, that does it for our mid-season awards checking. We've been having a lot of fun today, obviously, but obviously there's very serious things going on in L.A. with the fires right now in Southern California. Our thoughts are with everyone out there, all of our friends, all of our listeners, all of our colleagues, everyone out there, stay safe.

We're thinking about you, and we're deeply concerned for you right now. Thanks for listening to The Athletic Hockey Show. Haley and Sean will return to this slot next week. I have the next athletic hockey show on Monday with Max Bolton, Pierre LeBrun, and our friend Jesse Granger. See you next week.