The Athletic Hockey Show - Who are the real contenders post trade deadline?

Episode Date: March 14, 2024

Hailey, Max and Sean present their top contenders in the East and West after all the moves that were made, and weren't made, leading up to the NHL trade deadline. They take a look at the current playoff matchups, and discuss the suddenly red hot Buffalo Sabres, the ice cold Detroit Red Wings and the playoff bound New York Islanders and Nashville Predators.Plus Sean reports breaking news out of Pittsburgh, where the Penguins scheduled Jaromir Jagr bobblehead night has been postponed after the shipment of 68's keepsake were stolen on route to Pittsburgh.Get a 1-year subscription to The Athletic for $2 a month when you visit http://theathletic.com/hockeyshow Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show. Hey, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. It's Haley, Max, and Sean with you here on this Thursday morning. And we're going to start the show with some breaking news. And we're going to go to our senior bobblehead correspondent, Sean Jensilly, live in Pittsburgh. Sean, what's the latest? Tragic news out of southwestern Pennsylvania.

today, folks, where Kevin Acklin announced on Thursday morning, Penguins President Kevin Acklin announced that the Yarmory-Yager bobbleheads have been stolen. The Penguins are a victim of cargo theft. The giveaway isn't taking place. There's one less reason to pay any attention to that team. Yikes. And they're playing the San Jose sharks too. So it's kind of just like nobody's going to be at that hockey game.

What are all those boxes behind you? I have more than enough Yarm Yager merch in my home. I don't need any. I don't need any more. These are just my cargo boxes. If you imagine that, you're the guy who robs a C container or whatever, and it's just 10,000 Yarm Yager bobbleheads.

It's either the best or worst day of your career. Yeah. This is like, this is Christopher on the Sopranos boosting Pokemon cards for 20, 24. This has to be local crime.

It's not. It happened in California. Yeah. They got shipped clearly from overseas and made it to California and then got

boosted. We love it. There's somewhere there's going to be let's see, it's March. So we got a while until

Christmas, but there's going to be some very confused children wondering why Santa Claus brought them Yarm or Yager bobbleheads. And why 12? Why so many? It's what, you know, that's the joke the day, but that did legitimately happen. It just came up as we started recording the show. For any fans who are listening who have tickets to this game, it does sound like you'll still be able to get your bobblehead.

They're not just going to like change the bobblehead night. Because like people bought tickets to see the penguins play the sharks because it was that kind of night. Right. So it said fans in attendance, oh, so they're going to make people go to the game. Fans in attendance will receive a voucher that includes a one time scanable barcode that will be required to pick up the bobblehead at a later date. So it's like you have to go to the game to get the voucher. So you can't just skip the penguin. Sharks game on this Thursday evening.

They should swap it out. They should swap it out, just pull the plug on the Yagerd bobblehead and give everyone who shows up like a Drew O'Connor bobblehead or a Voltairee Pustin-in-in-Bobblehead or a John Ludwig bobblehead. Or a ski mask to commemorate the history now. So that they too can rob their own cargo someday. Give them a bobblehead.

Give him a bobblehead of a new penguin's powerplay legend. Lars Eller, who is a member of the first unit at the moment. Should be a Michael Bunting, Sue St. Marie Greyhound's bobblehead. I'm sure that one's coming, honestly. Hey, hey, he helped them get a point the other night. That's not helpful for them at this point. Yeah, that's fair. I actually fired up the old tankathon for the first time in a while last night,

and my two tries. The one time the penguins, this is where they're at right now. We were trying not to make this a penguins pod, but somehow. The first time they got the second overall pick, and then the second time they got the 11th and had to send their pick to the sharks

didn't have a first rounder. So you got basically almost the best case scenario for them, and then pretty literally the worst, which is ending up with the 11th pick. and having to send it to San Jose who controls it because of the Carlson trade. Yeah, that's top 10 protected. So Michael Bunting, stop. Chris Lattang keep being victim to gravity.

Seriously, they're in a huge funk. And that's why we're not going to be talking about the Pittsburgh Penguins any longer on this podcast. We're talking about good teams today. John, I was about to say that. I'm the host. You're setting me up. Oh, I wasn't done. done yet. Dang it. See, Max just sits there and waits for his turn. But that's why sometimes

we'll go for like 15 minutes and Max hasn't spoken yet because Sean's ranted and I've started talking. So anyways, today we are not going to be talking about the Pittsburgh Penguins. We're going to be talking about the teams that we believe are actually going to be contenders in the Stanley Cup playoffs. The dust is now settled on the trade deadline. So it's feels like a pretty good time to take stock of the playoff race, see where each team's kind of landed. It's something everyone does after the deadline, natural point in the season to kind reflect on things. And we're going to start in the Eastern Conference because we did just talk about the Penguins who are not, they're not contenders. Max, who's your biggest contender in the

Eastern Conference? I think it's got to be Florida. I think, you know, and really it's trended that way over the last few weeks. It feels like we're popular sentiments that. I don't think anyone's going to be shocked to hear this. But I think they're the Vegas favorites now, but you just look at the way that they're going. I saw them live a week or two ago, and they just look in full playoff form. And you look up and down that lineup. It's so complete. Obviously, you want them to be fully healthy going in.

But you had Vladimir Tarasenko to that. And all of a sudden, it's three scary lines deep, a full decor. And, yeah, to me, they're the team to beat, which, you know, very rarely do we see a team go to the cup final in consecutive years, but the way that the East is shaping up, I think we saw the West do a lot more at the deadline, pretty much just them in Carolina in terms of the splash moves in the East. And I just like the way they're situated a lot better. John?

It's Florida, but Florida is a boring answer, right? So I don't want to restate anything that Max just said. Are we aware that. The, the, the, the, Egoe Shastirkin is playing well at the moment. Like, the Rangers are, they shut, he shut out Carolina earlier this week. Um, I don't, I, I've gone back and forth on the Rangers multiple time this season. Just like I've gone back and forth on them, I think several times over the last few. Because, you know, the forward depth isn't great and they're overlying on the power play.

And we're on year two of Shastirken being like inconsistent, you know, great at times. and less so at others. They're a streaky team. And when they're at their best, you're like, this is true top shelf 1A contender stuff from them. That's the way they look, but the problem is they don't look that way frequently enough.

But man, if they get 20-21 era or whatever, 22-era, Egor Shasturkin, for a meaningful amount of time moving forward, and they still have, you know, Panarin playing a super high level and on and on. The top end talent on that team is sick. And they did bolster their bottom six a little bit.

I mean, Jack Roslovick and, and Winberg are not super interesting players, but they're useful. So I think if you look at the east, and if we agree that Florida has separated themselves a little bit, I think it's just as clear to me that, especially with what Boston's lack of action at the deadline on and on and on. I think it's becoming even more clear that the Rangers are kind of alone on that on that second tier.

I mean, I'm going to go with the Carolina Hurricanes. I agree that the Panthers are probably the favorite at this point. But if I'm looking at the Keynes and you're kind of looking at the path, I actually think they're like the path where any East team is going to be easier than the West. and we'll get to that. But the West is going to be incredibly difficult to get out of. Whereas if you're the Cains, you kind of just have to get by the Rangers.

Look, and knock on wood, because we've seen first round, first round upsets before. Boston Bruins last year, upset by the Florida Panthers. Whereas the Panthers are going to have to get by, yeah, we can laugh,

the Toronto Maple Leafs or Boston by round two. So I actually think the Panthers might have, you know, a more difficult route to get out of the east than maybe Carolina does. And I would pick the Canes over the Rangers on most days, unless Igor Sturkin and Sean said, the team stays hot, right?

So I like the Keynes. I think they got the biggest prize at the deadline and Jake Gensel. And I think what makes that so exciting is like he's probably going to be on the second line because why would you break up the Svetikov-A-Haw-Ho duo and Tara Vindens up on that top line right now. So you're going to have line two, Jake Gensel, maybe potentially with Martin Natchez. They picked up of getting Kuznetsov, not sure how that's going to end up working in Carolina, but I like what the Keynes did. Freddie Anderson is back. He's not Igor Shusirken, but we know that that team plays a really good puck possession defensive style. So their goaltending

situation just kind of improved, got better without actually having to add anything at the deadline just based on Anderson getting healthy. And I mean, just like off the ice. I'm glad that he's okay. That's kind of like when we kind of heard what was going on with the blood clotting disorder that's very scary. So I don't think anyone was even thinking about when's Freddie Anderson going to play hockey again. But it's nice to see him back. And I love, I love their blue line. And I love the way that this team plays. And we've talked a lot over the last few years about who are the who's going to score goals with the Carolina Hurricanes when it matters most. Well, it's probably going to be Jake Ensel. So I'm going to go with the Carolina Hurricanes here. But like we can debate if we think

Boston is a legitimate like maybe not a contender, but a challenger. Like that's what the next tier is, right? Like we've got the top two contenders, which I believe to be the Cains and the Panthers and the Rangers. So that's our kind of top three. And I think everyone else in the East is just going to be the ones who are trying to spoil it. Like those are the challengers, the disruptors. Is there anyone who we think has legitimate like first round upset potential? Is it Boston? Is it is it Toronto? Well, I think a, you're talking about winning around. I think a lot of these teams can do it. Boston to me strikes me as like what we've seen from Carolina the past five years, right? Like they're a really stingy stout defensive team that I just wonder where they're getting the big

goal from. They are better in goal than I think Carolina's been in, you know, this last stretch. Everyone apologized to me, by the way, for all, everyone made fun of me for taking Jeremy Swayman and that everything draft. And I just want everyone to say sorry, specifically Mark Lazarus. I'm still pissed. That is, Shepard. It was a good goal.

He was making fun of me. And he shouldn't have. Anyways, Max, please continue. I'm sorry. think more GMs should do that, by the way. Like GMs who make, you know, so-called shocker picks in the draft should, yeah, their press conferences just be like, I just want everyone to, actually the Lions GM kind of did that a couple weeks ago.

Yeah, I was going to say, didn't it? I think you might have heard a bit about that one. Yeah, maybe that just seeped into my subconscious. Hey, you are right, Haley. Swam has been great. So, like, I can see Boston winning around. I think I'll pick them to beat Toronto when that matchup that has become inevitable arrive. why would happen

yeah exactly I mean and can Tampa win a round on somebody absolutely right there's such like Boston is such a well coach team like I have a lot of a lot of respect for the for the work that Jim Montgomery has put in

and the systems that are there that that um allow them to they're at 91 points you know and we're just like yeah whatever New York this and Carolina that and we're kind of dismissing Boston like

that's a that's a team that's racked up bunch of points despite having a really if you're grading them against new york in carolina now and you know certainly florida that is an uninspiring group of hockey players you look at that roster aside aside from you know the posternox and the and the and the swainments and the mackleys and the high end there and you're like how is this uh how is this happening how are they how are how are they managing to get this done? I think that's a testament to to the coaching staff

to get this done in a bridge year, right? This was, they, they, more people pick them to fall off and they're going to shoot past 100 points here relatively quickly. They're third in the league right now. They're really good.

It is a lot of OT losses. It is a lot of OT losses. You don't get anything for that. They'll count, man. Points count. Like, like it, it is what it is.

So, so if, if you're at 91 points, on March 14th, like something's gone right. Regardless of the fact that, you know, they're capped out for a year and have a ton of money to spend come summer, all that, all that stuff. The fact that they've, you know, that they're still, you know, cruising for a second place finish in that division at this point is pretty impressive. A lot of OT losses, max, but they still have 30 regulation wins, which is like, which is 10th in the league right now, I think. So this isn't, I remember earlier in the season,

the Leafs had actually only won like five games in regulation or something crazy. And they'd say it had so many OT wins and losses. But you're right, a lot of OT losses. And there's no, there's no three on three in the playoffs. So I get that. But it is, it does kind of jump out at you a little bit when you look at them.

Totally. Yeah. And that's a difference, right? Like that's, that's the kind of stuff that stops them from, from me from being in the, in the, we'll say,

in the Florida Carolina Rangers tier despite the fact that they're third in the league for sure. So I just pulled this up and it's from our friends at that MGM. If the playoffs started today, I always love looking at stuff like this because it can contextualize some of this a little bit maybe.

And this is kind of what we mean. So if the playoffs started today, the first round would be Panthers Islanders. Islanders have looked better under Patrick Waugh defensively good. they have some like good offensive players. We're talking about Noah Dobson and Matt Barzell, et cetera. Do we think the Panthers are going to get past,

or do we think the Islanders can get past Florida? Like maybe it could be a fun series, but I don't think so. Like the Panthers have been, I really, I don't think we can overstate how good the Panthers have been this season. Islanders got to get past the, the Buffalo Sabers, baby.

That's a big game. That's a big game. Hold that. Hold that. And then it was Bruins leaves in the other bracket, Cain's Flyers. So again, I think that speaks to Carolina having a little bit of an easier path

and then it's Rangers lightning. So for Carolina, they'll have to get past the Rangers to get to the conference final, whereas the Panthers would have to get past a combination of the Islanders, Bruins, and leaves. By season's end, though.

Yeah, sure. By season's end. We think Islanders will be the three in the Metro, right? It'll be Islanders, canes and it'll be Flyers Panthers. I never count out the Islanders from doing anything. We've seen them do some damage in the playoffs. Florida will be a tough

matchup to do it again. I think they can play the kind of game the Islanders want to play with stars, right? Yeah, especially if Bobrovsky can match up a good Sorokin series too, right? Like I just think the Panthers have an answer to everyone's like thing

that they have that does really well for them. So that's if the playoffs started today and Max, you're right. I think there'll be a little bit of jumbling with the Metro top three and in the wildcard teams. But as Sean mentioned, there's a team that's making things a little bit interesting here. I was actually, I was doing the Merrick show yesterday and he was like, I can't believe I'm about to say this, but the Buffalo Sabres are five points back of a playoff spot. He's like, do we think they can do it? are we hopping back on the Sabres wagon here on the athletic hockey show?

I've been I've been burned before and ultimately like yeah well you know we're they're going against the Islanders they're going against the wings they're going against the lightning those are the teams that they're going to have to jump and I didn't mean to like gloss over this islanders are playing really well like that's that's a hockey team that you know we'll go back a month I know it's kind of our arbitrary, but we'll go back to February 14. The Islanders are third and expected goals percentage,

fifth in actual goals percentage, third in goals four per 60 in way down and in goals against. So it's like this is a team that I did. I did indeed say that they've been playing very well under Pat's squad in Alaska. I'm saying that I unwisely have,

you know, in my in my haste in and and uh you know and my just not even a bit my love for the buffalo savers like I just I just I just think that's a little it's easy they're so easy to root for for a bunch of reasons you've glossed over the fact of gloss over the islanders they're probably keep that spot yeah of course of course because they're because they're five points out of everything they've played more games than than the teams are going up against obviously buffalo and the islanders are playing tonight and that's the main reason we're talking about. this that's a huge game um shout out to the islanders too because they're because they've you know

figured it out in a meaningful way and especially the metro division and especially at earth or the wild card race either or you know the way that they're playing is so it's head and shoulders above everybody else really going back several weeks now and that's what it's going to take like all like it's it's going to take some run like that for some meaningful amount of time for them to rise above the muck and it seems like they're they're in the best the best spot you know to do that yeah we're glossed over them for the best reason which is that they've just clearly separated themselves as the team that yeah they're going to get a wild card right like it's they they've almost i i know they are behind philly in the standings but i've just kind of mentally penciled them into the three in the

metro yeah because of how good they look and how much more confident i am in their total build starting with sarokin that's if we're glossing over them it's it's for that reason it's because they're not boring. We just trust that we trusted them, right? Yeah. Yeah. I mean,

you even like corrected me of like I think, I don't think the flyers are going to be. Yeah. The Metro three team. That's going to be, it's going to be the Islanders. The Red Wings have lost six in a row. Yep.

Max, can we just take it? I heard from a few people actually. Are they, are they toast out of the playoff picture? I'm not trying to set you up for some kind of like, crappy tweet where Max Bultman says

Red Wings are cooked but are they kind of out of this race? It's a big week for them is what I'll say. They're playing without Dylan Larkin and I know that alone can't be the reason they've lost six in a row. It's a big reason they've lost six in a row and he's not back yet. And I wrote off their loss in Buffalo the other night

which was really, really ugly. They just, they were down four one after one and it could have been worse. Basically, their job, right now is to make sure that Dylan Larkin still has a playoff race to come back to when he gets healthy, which we think is going to be sometime next week. And they have a schedule that should, being the operative word, allow that. Arizona, tonight, Buffalo, Pittsburgh.

You got to take at least two of those three. They're not cooked yet. But I think if they can't put something together here and they let themselves get five or six points back with 13 or 14 games left, that becomes a huge hill to overcome. they're in trouble like that you you are really seeing how thin their lineup gets at center without Dylan Larkin in terms of pace setting guys that can win pucks for their skilled wingers that have been you know everyone's talked about their shooting percentage all year um if you don't have guys who can get your shooters the puck you you very quickly

become extremely beatable and that's what's happened to how much should we read into steve iserman not doing anything at the deadline like is there are there conclusions of draw on that with regards to his feelings about the current iteration of the team? Well, I think he viewed it as a vote of confidence, right? Because you remember, you come into a year as the Red Wings, and I think you're kind of planning to sell in general. And so to not sell, I think, is probably how they viewed it, right?

And I think there is an argument like, okay, well, especially knowing you're without Larkin, should you have gone out and traded for a guy like Wendberg, who moved or Nick Dowd, who didn't move, I think you could have justified that and it maybe helps a little. The other side of that argument is you lost six in a row right now is Nick Dowder, Alex Wenberg, really the key difference in turning that in any meaningful way. I'd say probably not.

So I think they viewed it like a votive conference. That's certainly how they tried to spin it. They said it was about their organizational depth and the guys they could call up. Hasn't worked out. That's for sure. But I think that's how they view it. And was it a mistake? was it not or does this vindicate that? I think you kind of go either way on it.

If nothing else, it seems like this will very clearly put something at the top of the to-do list for the summer. If Steve Eiserman didn't already know that he needs more centers, he will. That's the worst thing about it though, Haley, is like that's been their offseason the last two years. They signed Andrew Copp and JT. Com for a term. You can't keep giving big contracts of free agency, the centers, and they're going to be in cap trouble already this summer. Like already, I said already, it's been like seven years, but the Red Wings have not accomplished enough yet

to have the kind of cap squeeze that they're going to have this summer. And I think that has a lot of fans on edge for good reason. That ended up being a problem for the flames when I was covering them. It was like they don't have enough cap space to potentially sign Johnny Godrow and Matthew Kuchuk and and because they've spent too many, off-season signing like middle six guys to five million dollar contracts. Like it's not

always the big overpay. It's the like middle class that that becomes too big and you're like, oh no. Why do we have all of these good but like useful depth guys making six million dollars? It doesn't even need to be that.

I spent all my money. If you overpay a bunch of players by 500 grand, $750 grand, it adds up. it's death by paper cuts and it's happened to many many teams over the years then all of a sudden it's like hey we have a mediocre team and we're capped out what do we what do we do here so just so just for my tweet right um salvean wants to wipe out the middle class is that how i should phrase that's correct okay great thank you she's always going on about it yeah yes anyways so to wrap up

the east um our favorite slash contenders would be the canes, the rangers, and the Florida Panthers. And then we kind of have the next tier, which is the challengers, right? And we said, Boston, the islanders, we didn't really talk about the leaves because, unfortunately, the leaves just lost again to the Bruins. And it was another one of just like, yeah. You can find Leafs talk else around this website, I believe. There is a Leafs pod.

I think it's called Leafs Talk. Mm-hmm. Leaf Report. Oh, shoot. sorry that's with James Myrtle and Jonas Siegel

so I think those were the other challengers was just Boston yeah the conference the conference is a joke Boston and the Islanders

oh in Tampa like you can never we'll just do the blanket statement don't yell at me I guess you can never count out the lightning we get it

we know we agree with you, but they're in the second tier. I think the Islanders can do damage matchup dependent. I wouldn't take him against Florida, but if they get the Carolina matchup, let's see what happens. Maybe. Maybe Matt Barzell will.

They'd have the goal to be simply too much. Patrick Waugh has decided to play his best players more than his worst players. It's amazing that. It's amazing the effect that that can have. Is that going well? It seems to be they're one of the five best teams. in the league over the last month. I know. I said the Islanders have been very good.

And then we talked for a while. And then a few minutes later, you were like, I don't think we should glaze over how good the Islanders have been. It's like, nobody listens to me. What the heck? Anyways, we're going to take a break when we come back. We're going to talk about the Thunderdome. That's the Western Conference.

It's coming up next in the Athletic Hockey Show. All right, welcome back. It's time to talk about the Western Conference. which we're calling the Thunderdome, that people are calling the Thunderdome. Folks are saying the West is a Thunderdome. I have a false memory of Kelly McCriman calling it the Thunderdome when we had just talked to him yesterday.

But he did actually call the Thunderdome. He implied it. Oh. You just like, we're like, yeah, he's saying Thunderdome for sure. If Kelly McCriman was being honest, he was just saying the Thunderdome. there's a lot more kind of true contenders and, you know, challengers out of the Western Conference. I mean, it looks like we've talked about it a lot. We talked about it after the deadline.

The West, you know, truly had the biggest moves. A lot of the teams beefed up. Ew. The beefy Western Conference. Big boys. Big boy hockey. Is that Pierre? Am I not wearing my glasses?

Am I talking to Pierre LeBron right now? Yeah. Why do the Leafs struggle against Western Conference teams? Like we've said a lot, you know, the Dallas stars have kind of been our favorite on this show since the beginning of the season. And they have a 15.5% chance at winning the Stanley Cup on Dom's model. So they're one of the true favorites to win the cup for Dom. They're actually sandwiched in between the Florida Panthers and the Carolina Hurricanes is the top three favorite. in the league.

And then there's the Edmonton Oilers as well. And then a ton of contenders in the West. And I think that's the difference, right? Is it's not just like the favorites and the challengers, like who could, who could, who has upset potential. It's like the favorites, the contenders, then the challengers, then the rest. Like there's more true tiers in the Western Conference. Sean, do you want to start?

Do you want to pick your top contender from the Western Conference? Yeah, sure. and I just to like reinforce what you said like I did there is a cliff in the metro we're talking about Philly and Detroit and whoever else making her Philly is still in third place in the in the metropolitan division like on and on ain't the case here um I'm still going Dallas I know that you know there is a certain amount of projection there because we're all sort of assuming that Ottinger's going to keep it together for a protracted amount of time. And he hasn't, he hasn't been great on balance this season. But man, it's still tough.

It's just so tough to look at their roster and look at, look at the depth and also, uh, the high end, high end ability and not say that this is a team that's, that's built, you know, that was built to go far from the jump and only more so now after,

after adding TANF. So I, uh, yeah, oh my God. and Logan Sankovin has been huge since they brought him up on and on and on. There's so much stuff to like about the stars that, you know, you almost don't want to blabler the point.

I feel like we talk about it every week, but. Yeah, something, something. Their top nine's unbelievable. I mean, I picked them. They were my cup pick at the start of the season. And they've done nothing to suggest that, you know, that that was a mistake. Every time I do a little radio hit with my friend Alish, she has a sports net show. Every time.

always like, do you want to rescind your stars pick? I'm like, why would I do that? No, next question. Because I picked them to win at the start of the season and they had asked me that. I was like, yeah, what the heck? Leave me alone. No, I'm not going to be changing my answer. They've been at the top of the league all year and they just got better at the deadline. Max? Yeah, I mean, I'm with Sean. This is a well-known Dallas Stars podcast, but in the spirit of better radio, I will go with the avalanche and just, holy cow, that top line looks absolutely terrifying. Nathan McKinnon is having the kind of season, and I know there's so many MVP candidates. I don't even know that in any other year, I think he, well, I guess not any other year.

We've seen some statistical craziness, but I just think he looks like a terror and like a player who will not be denied. He scares me. And when you watch a guy like that, it's just, it's easy to think of the possibilities and the playoffs when he's playing, you know, I mean, he is already playing crazy minutes, but you can lean even heavier on him and just see what, what he can do for you. And he looks like he's in that zone. So I guess I would go Colorado in that way. But, you know, in reality, I think the goaltending and depth would lean it to Dallas. But I do think, you know, when you have a star and a collection of stars like they have, you can you can put a scare into anybody and beat anybody.

It's a huge win for them last night, too. I like, McKinnon was great, but now, you know, Val Lachushkin scores to win it. Ross Colton ties it. Middle Stets in the mix now. Yeah. Feeling just a huge, huge hole that they had a much better second line now, right? Brandon Duane adds a lot to a bottom six. I think he's a guy who's just built for playoff hockey.

Like that team all of a sudden, because of the moves that they made, their lineup makes perfect sense now. Yeah. How much more do you like Colton? How much, that's exactly what I was going to say. How much more do you like Ross Colton now that you're not like, hey, man, you got a, you're a top six center. Like, good luck. He was overextended in that role. But by that, you know, by that same token, man, Ross Colton on a third line.

All right. That'll work. Their lines look a lot more balanced. And obviously they're going to have the best top line on most nights. But they're going to have, like on those nights. Like on those nights where the stars cancel each other out a little bit, the aves are going to have better role players to step up in the moments that they need, right? Whether it's Casey Middlestad or Natchewskihkin or Ross Colton, Duhheim, like you said.

Sean Walker, I think, is on their third pair right now. So that blue line just looks unbelievable. You can play Sean Walker in like really sheltered minutes and just let him go out there and try to generate. That's pretty sick. And I think, again, like, man, to go back to the stars, their depth is so impressive. I think that Colorado would have a really, really hard time navigating that two weeks ago. And now you're like, okay, like the central's, the central specifically, because of those two teams is what's shaping up to be pretty sick. Yeah, they look significantly deeper than the abs team that got beat in the first round of the playoffs last year by Seattle.

So the abs definitely look scary. Is it surprising that we haven't talked about the Oilers yet? A little, but I'm ready to if that's your pick. Well, I'm with you guys on. I think the West is a little bit easier where I think we're all going to be an agreement on these top three or four teams. But I think the Oilers are one of the ones that, like, it's not a debate. I think the Oilers are a serious contender. and very quickly, Sean had mentioned the Aves win last night.

They scored four straight to win an OT against the Vancouver Canucks. That was like a very big Western Conference matchup. Canucks go up 3-0, lose 4-3 in overtime. But yeah, I think the Oilers are a big one. They had a big win last night too. But they've got Connor McDavid. They've got the Andrei Seidel. Van der Cain's on the third line.

They've got depth. It's just the oil. know, it's just the Oilers got the best player in the world. And I think they surrounded him with enough talent to do some damage this year. Yeah, guys who can score in the playoffs too, right? Like, that to me is the biggest thing with Hyman and Evander Kane is that, and really, I think you could even go there with Corey Perry too. We'll see how it translates. You know, he's getting up there in years. But they have the right collection, I think, of guys to produce around their stars when inevitably your stars get a little bit of a rougher ride at times in

the playoffs. You lean on them a lot certainly, but they have to show up. But I do have a confidence in the supporting cast now in the Oilers that I feel like has been slowly building over the last three or four years. And I think they're at the point now where they can do it any any one of these years and it won't be a shock, right? Since the coaching change, since the coaching change, the Oilers have the best expected goals rate in the league, the second best actual goals rate and our top five in the power play and the penalty kill. And they're a league best 36. 12 and 2. The deadline moves at the...

That's wild. The deadline moves that they made are not particularly sexy, right? No one's losing their mind over Adam Enrique, but given where they were coming from, given their salary situation and maybe some of the assets

that they had to send out, Adam Henrique makes a ton of sense. He's played with elite players, his entire career. He is a left wing at this point overall, but can give you some minutes at center. If that's what you need, you can take You can take face-offs. And again, most importantly, he can mesh with elite dudes.

Like he's not, you know, you're not going to win a series because of Adam Henrique on his own. But it's a versatile, useful piece to add to, like, say, top nine. Like it's, it's not, it's, uh, that's not bad. Carrick's kind of a sneaky ad too. I can't, yeah, I agree with you. Yeah, I don't, we haven't seen him in the playoffs yet, but he does feel like the kind of guy who, who in the playoffs, he'll rise to that. you know, occasion and give you that role. They have options in that lineup, too, as Sean mentioned, with Adam Henrique.

And they have a lot of guys who can slide out to the wing, who can play center. We've been seeing the Nugent Hopkins, McDavid-Hyman combo. But like, we've seen that team load up and put McDavid and Drysidal on the same line and just load up. But now they have a one-two punch and then a more balanced third line again with Adam Henrique and Evander Kane. But you can also, if you want to put Henrique up on the top line left wing, put Nugent Hopkins as a 3C.

Like they've got, they can mix and match, uh, load up lines spread out the top nine. So the oilers are definitely a true contender. Are those the only true contenders in the West? Like this is where I think it gets a little bit more debatable. Maybe, maybe that's unfair. I think the Vegas Golden Knights are a contender in the Western Conference. I know they're in a wild card spot right now,

but they did make behind Jake Gensel, arguably actually the biggest splash just based on the surprise element of the Tomash hurdle deal. And Sean, you just spoke with Kelly McCrimman. But do you think the Golden Knights are like a challenger or a true contender in the Western Conference? I mean, McCriman's the first guy to say like, hey, we're in a wildcard spot. We need to make sure that we do, we take care of business here like over the next, over the next month or so. But assuming, you know, I agree, but assuming that that happens, I think is. also fair.

It's impossible to look at what they did at the deadline and not think this team is it is an absolute danger, regardless of who they play, regardless of what round it happens in. If hurdle comes back and it seems like that's going to happen, if Anthony Mantha integrates himself to the middle six, if Noah Hannafin is the best number three defensemen in the league. He's on the top pair right now. I know, oh, you know what I mean, though. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know.

Like he's, he might be their third best defenseman is probably the best way to, is probably the best way to put it. And that's sick. Like the fact that that's even a point you can raise about him on that team is, is kind of, it's kind of unbelievable. So the talent's overwhelming, you know, the results have been uneven. And I think, too, is to some extent, Vegas did need to go out and make those trades, which is kind of a, you know, everyone acts like that this is just the rich getting richer.

and to some extent it is like that's a super talented team that just won a Stanley Cup, but they needed it for the stretch run. They just they just load it up in a very serious way. At the deadline, they had lost 9 of 11. Yeah, they'd been really best. Yeah, that's like the scary thing here. I don't think they're going to miss the playoffs, like the gap between them and the wild card challenges,

I think is enough that they can afford to have some like pickups integrating Hanifin and a hurdle. But I do think like I have a little trepidating. putting them in the same category as the teams we just talked about because like we just watched them even even now after winning two straight they've lost nine to 13 like it's just it's a little hard yeah Anthony mantha Noah Hanofin and Tamash hurdle all without sacrificing a single roster player is like pretty impressive and like Shay Theodore's on the second pair right now like they're once everything's once everything's settled and you get

Mark Stone back that team's just going to be ridiculous they just have to get in how about I'm afraid. How about the first round projection there, the projected matchup in the first round for them? Oh, yeah. So if the playoffs started today, we would have a Canucks Golden Knights first round. And then it would be Stars Jets, Oilers, Kings,

which has been fun over the last few years. And then Avs Preds. Imagine specifically if it's game one of the playoffs and Mark Stone is back and... Canucks fans would freak out. They're going to lose it. Like any team, any fan base, understandably, would lose it over that. Jets fans, Stars fans.

It doesn't matter. Everybody would freak out. The Canucks fan base is particularly situated to go ballistic. If that's when ends up happening. Maybe they'll finally change. The Canucks fans, you can be the change you want to see in the world. The only franchise that's ever been meaningfully punished for having someone hurt. against the franchise that is developing the reputation for for benefiting off of their guys being heard we should do a deep dive like audio pod on the lowongo cap recpture i i can't believe the cap recapture exists i still it still boggles my mind that that is something that was thought of implemented accepted yeah i it is it is out of control yeah so

Canucks fans like you're not wrong. I called like a labor lawyer whenever that happened. I was like, hey, why is this? What's happening? How is this allowed? Were they like not sure? Seems weird. They were, yeah, I mean, kind of.

But that's always shorthand for like the NHL does what they want. They can make up shit. They can make up shit and put it in place as they see fit in a lot of regards. There is stuff out there that is not collectively bargaining that they have and they have no problem putting their thumb on the scale and just making shit up as they go. And CapraC capture is like example A, B, and C to that. So speaking of the Vancouver Connects,

yeah, that could be a nightmare first round matchup for a team that has been one of the best in the league standings. And yet Dom actually has them as a dark horse in his kind of, they have a 3.8% chance at winning the Stanley Cup. and of course people were enraged by that because this team is at the top of the NHL standings. What do we think?

Vancouver Canucks is a dark horse unfair for a team that's been consistently very good this season. Yes. I think so. I think they're more in the like, I think they should be a contender, but yeah, like a matchup could go wrong for them, but I don't think that they're a dark horse.

You can't invalidate the work that they've done over the course of the season, right? And the things that they do, the people, the pieces that they've had, the play that they've gotten from the top of their lineup, even if you just limit it to Pedersen and Hughes and Demco,

like just we'll say that those are their big three. Like, that's what separates them for me from other sort of PDO merchant teams that we've seen over the years. Does the day have that elite talent, especially in net? that allows them to that that you know augments you know yeah maybe some maybe some luck here in there and some hot streaks but you know having having those guys at the top of your lineup helps

and i'm not willing to throw that away you know i'm certainly i'm certainly not willing to say yeah 3.8% like that doesn't seem right to me and give a give lindholm another month to acclimate there and let's see what he's doing at that point right like he's got a month for the playoff start yeah he's got a head start on that yeah yeah another and Another month without like more trade rumors going on. And I know like come on. Like I think his so I like seen on social media like him and his fiance like they have a new baby and he moved to Vancouver by himself.

Like I know people care about the on ice. Like that seems really tough. And she finally moves to Vancouver just for him to be in trade rumors again. Like that's that's tough for a human being to go through. So just like give them a little. time to like figure it out. I would also think he probably got some assurance from the team that, uh, that was deeply unlikely to happen to.

Like I, I, I don't think they were letting him, uh, flap in the breeze. But, but, but yeah, I mean, seven games, seven points in 18 games is tough, man. That's a tough, that's a tough break. And he's going to need to play better for people to feel good. If they, if they are going to be better, I'll say this, if they are going to be better than a 4% or 5% chance or meaningfully, meaningfully better. They're going to need him to kick it up a couple of notches.

Sure. I think they've got elite core though. Like J.T. Miller's been great. Brock Besser. Like, yeah, I think having the Canucks is a dark horse is unfair. We should keep an eye. Thatcher Demko is week to week, which is devastating for me.

I had to pick up Justin. I had to pick up Jonathan Quick in fantasy, but I'm still going to beat Max this week. badly it's fine max were you going to go a different direction now yeah i wanted to know where you guys heard on winnipeg here because i feel like we've talked about them all year as a team that you know i was going to end up for them and how long can they sustain this they have sustained it like there's no doubt about that but i'm still having a really hard time getting excited about their lineup and their

matchup against anybody beyond connor hellbuck and they have connor helibuck so that's a big thing but i just You know, they match up with DALS. I don't think they've beaten the stars this year because the stars, I just like the lineup so much better and they have Ottinger. They have, they have had success against the Avalanche this year, but I just still question how is their lineup going to hold up against what the abs can put together in the playoffs?

And I think by numbers, we should be talking about them in this conversation. I'm having a hard time getting there. So I think in terms of like matchup, you're right. Like I think if we're looking at Jets versus Aves or Jets versus Golden Knights or Star, ours, whatever. Like, yeah, that's going to be a tougher matchup because the West is so good. And I think

that's more credit to how good the conferences, not so much, like, that the Jets are bad. And I don't think that they're just a product of Connor Halebuck. I would argue that this is the first time in a while that the Jets have been more than just Connor Hullabuck. Like, he doesn't need to be a Vesda caliber goalie for this team to be good. And I say that while also acknowledging that he's a legitimate heart trophy candidate and he could save like 10 goals above expected more than the next best goalie in the NHL. He's been unbelievable, but the Jets have a ton of depth. Like I'm looking at their depth chart right now. Like Cole Perfetti's on the fourth line. I know he's not some superstar stud, but like we're talking about Kyle Connor, Mark Schifley, Tyler Toffoli's on the second line,

Nikolai Eilers, Nino Nita Ryder, like they've got a lot of guys, Josh Morrissey, and then yeah and they've got the best goalie in the NHL if we're talking about a team with depth and a goalie who could steal a playoff series I don't know I've been more of like a Jets truther this year than I think I ever have been

so I push back on the they're just hella buck well but it's it's depth without the top though right like but Kyle Connor was before he got her he was one of the best goal scores in the league he's heated up lately too I think, I think like, if they wouldn't have gotten out and got to Foley, I would have probably

ejected them from the conversation. Like, like, to fully, and Max, I totally agree with you. I think they have depth, but no high end in a lot of ways. And that's what their problem is going to be. But I think that to fully add is what keeps them on the fringe of this, of this conversation for me. Like, it's not, it's not great. You know, I don't think you'll want Mark Scholarly.

Shifely is the one C still on a true, on a true high-end contender. And you can say that at several points throughout their lineup. Sean Monaghan's given them, giving them something. He's scored a whole, scored a bunch of goals since they, since they acquired it from Montreal,

which is, which is great for them. To Foley is a big, a big addition to the mix, though. And I think if he weren't around, I'd be like, okay,

we can, you know, kind of disregard them. Because like, especially in a world where their crews, for Dallas or Colorado at some point in the in the Eastern

or in the in the in the central division playoffs. So what I will say too and not to be a fenced sitter because I am Jets truther. But like in terms of the like elite player matchup which I think what you mean max in terms of like the top top like yeah I'm going to take Nathan McKinnon over Mark Shifley.

I'm going to take Connor McDavid over Mark Shifley. I'm going to take Rope Hintz probably over Mark Shifley, right? So when you match their elite players, same with Elias Pedersen and J.T. Miller. Like, when you match up the Jets, like elite forwards, up against the other Western Conference contenders elite forwards, the Jets, I think, do pale in comparison a bit. But I think they're, when you're looking at their complete package, kind of in a vacuum, I like the Jets team more than I have. And I, like, I just think the whole, like, they're just hellabuck thing does a disservice to the fact. The fact that they're just hella buck thing does a

disservice to the fact that that team has been like they've got depth but you're right in terms of the elite core you're going to take other like the the most elite core groups also happen to be in their conference in their division and they just don't match up the same way and i'll say i am a believer that if you have really favorable matchups with lines three and four like that can neutralize some of that some of that gap right i do believe that it's it's the blue line too though, right? It's like, and I know I'm still trying to kind of catch up, I think, to what the kind of company Josh Morrissey belongs in. Maybe it doesn't go there organically for me, but beyond him, it's just, it's really hard to get that fight. Like, we just talked about where Sean Walker

slotted on the abs. Yeah, like compare the abs blue line or the stars blue line to the Jets, blue line. And maybe Connor Hellebuck neutralizes all that. Maybe the forward depth neutralizes all that. It's hard for me to arrive at that conclusion. especially if the first round matchup is going to be stars, but Hela Bucks been better than every other goalie

in the league and Ottinger has been just fine. And I say this as someone who picked the Dallas Stars to win the Stanley Cup. We're not picking Winnipeg to make the playoffs. We're not talking about teams

that are good. Like that's not what the discussion is. They are. They are. They will. Yeah. That's also, I mean, they're a top.

10 top 5 team. They have been totally regardless of Hellebuck, right? That's something they've been unable to say. But like in a playoff series against the Dallas stars or Colorado Avalanche or the Vancouver Canucks or whoever, like I just can't, I can't get there with them just yet. Are there any other contenders? Do we, I don't think the Kings are going to win a Stanley Cup this year.

I could eat my word. on that maybe, but like I think the kings are, we've seen the kings have kind of like a fun upset against, they haven't had a fun upset against oilers in the first round of the playoffs. I think it was the Jets that upset the Oilers in the first round a few years ago. I just remember that because I tweeted that really funny sketch meme of like, oh, call an ambulance, but not for me. That was when the Jets beat them in the first round.

That's why it's still my favorite video ever. Like, are the Kings going to beat the Oilers in the, the first round? I don't know. I wouldn't, I wouldn't pick them too. I don't think so either. I can't get there. We can't be much like the Islanders. I don't think we can be surprised by any King's early playoff shenanigans, right?

Like they've kind of earned that right as a core. But I, it's this, I think it's a similar conversation to some of these teams that we've definitely good, right? Like Kings, playoff team, definitely good. Maybe they're in the category kind of with the lightning, I guess, is maybe a better comp here. I think they're a true dark horse. Whereas Dom had the Canucks is a dark course.

I think the Kings are more of a dark horse than the Vancouver Canucks would be, right? Yeah. Well, the Canucks have the second most points in the NHL. Yeah, yeah. But they're a dark horse contender. Dom's model's broken. I got to give him credit, man.

He sticks to his guns. Yeah. 91 projected points for Vancouver at the start of the season. contender. They're past that already. Yes, they are. What happened there? Anyways. There's always one. The exception proves the rule.

Yeah. Somebody asked me the other day, are the Seattle Cracken officially cooked, like not going to make the playoffs? I'm like, haven't they been? What do you mean? Are they finally cooked? I'm like, what do you mean? I haven't looked at the Cracken as a contender in months. They're nine points behind. Did I miss something? They're nine points behind Vegas in 12th. points behind Nashville, yes.

And with two other teams, they have three fewer points in the wild. I know, that's what I'm saying. What do you mean? And the blues. You guys are, you guys are, you guys are a couple games off pace for the blues in the wild. It is over. Yeah. Yeah.

Who do we think is going to make that final? This is the last question before we get out of here, guys. Who's going to, who's going to make that final Western Conference playoff spot? Is it going to be the Preds? Is that what we feel the most comprehensive? confident? Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Well. Because again, the alternative is picking the blues or the wild. Are you crazy? I'm not doing that. The bread's have been great. Yeah. It had an interesting deadline. I like GM Berry. I think Jason Zucker is a perfect fit for them. Because the contract expires. It costs them nothing. You can say like, hey, here's a, here's a pro that we've added. You know, go out and try to win the right to get stomped by, you know, Colorado in the first round or whatever. All right.

Very quickly, do we have a Stanley Cup pick? Dallas. Yeah, I'm not changing my. Max, you can't say the stars. It's not allowed. Have some in tech. I took Florida over Dallas in the staff. Love it.

Portal today. Boise's Boise. Love both teams. That's fun. Okay, great. Well, thanks everyone for listening to another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show. So just a reminder, you can leave us a five-star rating and review if you are enjoying the show. And if you're not, I don't want to hear your opinion.

And right now, you can get a one-year subscription to The Athletic for $1 a month when you visit theathletic.com slash hockey show. That was our post-deadline vibe check on the Stanley Cup race, the playoff race. I don't know. Thanks, everyone for listening. Thanks, Sean. Thanks, thanks, Max. We'll be back next week.