The Athletic Hockey Show - Why every NHL team should be in on an Elias Pettersson trade

Episode Date: January 13, 2025

Max and Laz discuss what the Canucks could potentially get in an Elias Pettersson trade, Todd McLellan’s Red Wings in the midst of a 7-game winning streak, and if we should actually believe in the resurgence of the Washington Capitals. Plus, The Athletic’s own Jesse Granger helps break down the Caps’ goaltending, his 2024-25 NHL Goalie Tiers, and the surprising Metro Division odds. Hosts: Max Bultman and Mark LazerusWith: Jesse GrangerExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the athletic hockey show. Hey, everybody, Max Boltman here alongside Mark Lazarus for another episode of the athletic hockey show. Jesse Granger are going to join us a little bit later on. And of course, as promised, Laz, I've done my homework. I have my presentation for you on why I think the Washington Capitals or how I think the Washington Capitals got to be actually good. We are going to get to that for sure. But I think we need to start in Vancouver. Last week, Chris Johnson's Trade Board 3.0 came out.

the top two names on it, probably to no surprise. Elias Patterson and J.T. Miller, you and I in Detroit had dinner last week and spent a long time talking about this topic of how you would handle this as the Canucks. What does it even look like to try to trade a player of either of their magnitudes or importance? And I want to start there. Well, first of all, we did not have a dinner. We had a very romantic dinner by a fireplace, an active fireplace at an alpine-themed restaurant. We split an appetizer.

It was a lovely evening, Max. I want to make sure that our listeners know that. What was it called Alpino? It's good. It was a favorite. Yes, it's alpino. It's one of my wife's favorite restaurants, which is how I came to know about it.

But you said, I asked you what you wanted to do for dinner when you came into town. You said Italian. I gave you a few options. And it just seemed that Alpino fit what you wanted the most. It was great. I got no complaints. I had a venison goulash.

Are you kidding me? I'm in heaven over there. I'm just saying, I didn't come into this planning to wine and dine you. It just worked out that way. Oh, it worked. It worked. I mean, here's, this is what we were talking about over dinner is I don't understand how every,

right now there should be 31 teams throwing big names and big draft picks and big prospects at the Vancouver Canucks to get one of these guys. If you have an opportunity to get L.E.S. Pedersen who just turned 26, a true, legit proven superstar. I don't care if you're rebuilding. I don't care if you're a contender now. I don't care if you're in the mushy middle. Why isn't everyone just falling over themselves to get this guy right now? This does not happen. Guys like this are not available in the NHL.

Well, for all we know they are, right? I mean, for all we know that everyone is checking in, right? And if you're Vancouver, this is not a deal you're going to make lightly if you decide to make it. It's a franchise altering move one way or another, whether you keep or go, this is a massive decision for Vancouver. And there's time pressure with whenever Pedersen's no trade clause kicks in. And I think that's probably one reason we're hearing as much as we are about it is that amplifies the importance of the decision.

Because keeping both is a decision too. You're betting that they can work out whatever the issues are there. And they've been reported on plenty. So I think we won't know really ever how many teams checked in, how big the offers got. But what I'm interested in is what does it actually take to do it? Because to me, the answer is something like the Jack Eichael deal. But I can also understand people going, the Jack Eichael deal didn't work out all that well for Buffalo.

So is that really a template? Well, that's the problem is you almost never win the trade when you're the one trading the great player, right? You almost everyone overvalues their prospects. I mean, you are more steeped in that prospect world than I am. You have more of maybe an attachment and a belief in some of these guys. But like, look, I'm in Chicago right now. And Frank Nazar is the number 13 overall pick two years ago.

he is already playing second line center for the Blackhawks. He looks really good. I would kick him to the curb in a heartbeat, along with a first round pick, along with a defenseman prospect, to get a player of Elias Pedersen's capabilities because chances are, Frank Nazar is not going to be a 106-point guy like Eliasbetterson is.

So you should be willing to move heaven and earth and trade all your best prospects, you know, or not all of them, but all of them should be on the table, short of your bedards and celebrinis and fantillies and Carlson's, and maybe even those last two guys, I'd be willing to move. Every single player in your system, short of your Pedersen types, should be on the table.

And I feel like I'd be very surprised if most NHL teams are willing to do that, because I feel like every NHL team overvalues their prospects, overvalues like the 13th pick in the draft. And, man, you should be trying to get an Elias Peterson in his prime. Okay, so a couple of things. So there's a money angle to this, right? So the things you're giving away typically are not even close to $11.6 million in cap space. That does matter.

We'd like to think that it doesn't matter at all because if Pedersen's a hundred point player, then you're very happy with $11.6 million even for, you know, sorry, with his caliber, even for $11.6 million. But it matters right now. And especially when you're talking about cost controlled assets, that's a thing, right? And part of it, the Vancouver end of that deal is, okay, you're going to get all these cheap. assets and you can go replace Patterson with a free agent if you want to or a trade of eating up that amount of cap space.

The other thing is there are times where it works out home run level, right? The Ottawa, San Jose Eric Carlson deal would probably be example number one. On the day that deal was made, you don't think that pick is going to be a top five pick. You don't think that's going to become Tim Stutzla, but it became Tim Stutzel. And Josh Norris is in that deal too, right? And so what you have now for Ottawa is they got basically their top two centers for Eric Carlson right before the cliff came for Eric Carlson. He got another Norris out of it, but the cliff came.

And so if you're Ottawa, that was the logic of that. Now, there's an age element to that does not exist. Eric Carlson was older. Eric Carlson had so much more mileage on him. I understand what you're saying, but I don't think that's a comparable player. Carlson at that age to Pedersen at this age. But even if you took the exact same return, you would take Stutzla and Norris for Peterson for sure if you're Vancouver.

Of course you would. But the chances of that, happening are so slim. I mean, it usually does. But if you talk about the money, here, we always talk about the money and like, and like Sean McIndoe harps on this a lot and justifiably is there's always an excuse, right? There's always a reason not to make the bold move. And you know, you know who makes the bold move every time it doesn't care about the, worries about the cap later, the Vegas Golden Knights, who have already won a Stanley Cup

in their short time on earth and are probably the best team in hockey right now. They get who they want and they figure it out later. Caps going up. There are ways to get rid of people. You can make this happen. There's almost nobody in the NHL. There's, there's, there's, there's, there's, there's, there's, there's, there's, there's, a, there's, there's, there's, there's, there's, there's, a higher priority than Elias Pederson. And, uh, and so you find a way to make him work. And most of these teams can do it. Most of these teams are just not willing to do it. We don't know that. We don't know that. Vancouver, have you looked around the NHL? We never see trades like this. Uh, in this instance,

I'm saying, we don't, we don't know what the offers are, what, what, what's being flow did, right? Like that's, Vancouver has to say yes to something, right? Is where we're going with this. Well, that's the problem because Vancouver knows, like Vancouver's in such a horrible situation, right? Because if the reported ripped here is true with Miller and with Pedersen, you have to do something, right? If this is an untenable situation, you'd like to be able to just say, hey, you're both professionals, figure it out, let's play. But if they really feel this is an untenable situation, and that's what some of the reporting seems to be leading toward, they know they're going

to lose this trade. Like you said, the option. The Ottawa Carlson trade, that is one out of 50 happens like that. More often than not, it's the Jack Eichel trade, where the team that gets the best player, shockingly, wins the trade. And so Vancouver, I understand Vancouver's reluctance here, but with that Pedersen deal becoming a no trade clause soon, this summer, they might not have a choice, and they're going to go into it knowing they're probably going to lose the trade. It sucks if you're Vancouver right now, because he's such a good player.

And, you know, after last season, you think like, oh, we are set up for long-term success here and then all of a sudden you're not. It's really tough pill to swallow, but they might have to swallow it. Yeah. And I think that's what makes it so fascinating is I don't know how you would decide in Vancouver's shoes which angle on this to take. It may be just as simple as one has the no trade clause now and one doesn't, but one is much younger to your point, right? Like if you're talking about the cliff, J.T. Miller is the guy who's a lot more natural to talk about the cliff with. But he's also that type of like, you know, intense competitor. again, based on some of the reporting, possibly not to his benefit at times or the teams benefit at times,

but teams like that. And it's probably a little harder to find and harder to replace and maybe harder to part with in that sense. On the other hand, you have Pederson, who I think for the next decade is going to outscore J.T. Miller. Do you have any doubt about that? I don't have, no, Pederson's a better player. He's the better asset, although either one of those guys would make almost any team better right now. It's interesting. You look at what's happening in Boston right now with that radio report that David Posternock and Brad Marchand were at each other's throats and hating each other and stuff like that.

And the way Marchand came out and just immediately vociferously and very pointedly shot that down, that's not really happening in Vancouver, right? Nobody's coming out and saying everything's fine. So clearly everything is not fine in Vancouver right now, and they have to do something about it. Pedersen will get you more in return, right, than Miller will. Yeah. So they have to decide who can they live without more, who's going to get them more, what's going to allow them to save face if they do have to make a deal? I mean, it's just an absolutely precarious position to be in if you're Vancouver right now.

And it's going to be fascinating and see it play out. And, God, they should be able to clean up because there should be so many teams throwing so many picks and prospects and actual NHL players at them right now, that they should be able to get a better return than we've seen in some of these trades before. because if you're a GM in the NHL, and I don't care if you're, if you're Chicago or if you are Vegas, if you are great or you are terrible, you should be falling all over yourself to try to make this deal happen.

And I just being around this league for a long time now, I don't think that's happening. All right, so you're in Chicago, Mark. Vancouver says, all right, we'll do it. Bedard needs another wingman there, another high end forward. The cost is Lev Shinov, Nazer, and a first. would it be the first they have two first round picks this year would it be the one that's there's going to be a top three pick or is it going to be the Tampa Bay one that's going to be

20 something so you're already tepid on the on the no no no well you're asking for a number two pick and a potential number one pick here there like i said there are there are levels of this if you ask let leveschenoff would be interesting because the hawks put a lot of you know that's a that's a big prospect but if you ask me about kevin korsinsky the number seven pick in 2022. Nazar, the number 13 pick that year. Two top 13 picks. I'll let you top five protect it. Well, just make a Tampa base pick. Just make it. They have, that's the 29th. You just talked about the old value. Not 29, but it's going to be like in the late teens, early 20s, right?

If you wanted Korsinski, Nazar and Tampa's first round pick next year, isn't it Toronto? I think it's Toronto. I think that's in the late 20s. Sorry, the Hawks have acquired a whole lot of first round picks in the last year. It's hard to keep track. Yeah, it is Toronto's. So yeah, that's going to be a later one. But you're also giving up two very recent top 13 picks that are, that don't look like busts at all. They look like they could be,

they both played in the NHL array. All right. So the prospect hugging is already turned. No, I'm saying I'm making that trade. Okay. I think very highly of Nazar. And I think Kornitsky can be a really good player. But I am making that trade because Elias Petterson is already what you hope Frank Nazar

might become, right? You subbed out Levchenoff for Korkinski and you're holding them to the 20. If you're asking me, Leveschenoff would be on. on the table, but you're not going to get both those. Leveshanov and at first, I might be willing to do that. I don't think that the Blackhawks will. I don't think Kyle Davidson would do that.

I would. Like I said, I'm willing to give up. Lefshinoff is, he's all potential. He's all promised right now. He could be, he could be amazing. He could not be too. Pedersen already is amazing. Give me amazing and it's only, what, six years older? Give me Pedersen. Give me someone who can play with Connor Bedard for the next decade and

make Connor Bedard, allow Connor Bedard to become the player we know he can be. whether that's Pedersen at Center and Bedard on the wing or Bedard at Center and Pedersen on the wing, I don't care. Give me Elias Pedersen on Connor Bedard's wing. That's more important than literally any other prospect in the system. I think what would be hard about it from Chicago's perspective is if you trade Levshanov, then, okay, yeah, you have Peterson, but you have a guy up there being paid like a guy who's ready to win now. I think your fans are going to take that as a signal that it's time to win now, and I still don't think you have a team to win now, and you certainly just traded away your best future defense prospect to that end.

Yeah, and for the record, I am not saying the Blackhawks are considering any of this. No, no, yeah. We're not going to. This is me. This is me playing armchair GM. If I were in the chair, I would be moving heaven and earth to get Eliasch Pedersen to see if it's actually possible. I do not believe for a second the Blackhawks are actually going to do any of these things. I'm just speaking in hypotheticals and using Chicago as an example of what I think they should be doing.

You should be trying to get this guy almost at all costs. I was trying to make the point that the second that you start talking. about it in prospects that you have a little more familiarity with. I think it's a little tenser. Sure, no, yeah. I stood on his guns there. I can respect that. Everyone overvalues their prospects, including the beat writers who cover them.

I know a lot more about Ardenm Leveshanov and Kevin Korninski and Frank Nazar and Oliver more than I do about whoever's got, Detroit's got in the system. That's inevitable, right? That's how it works. But I don't care. Pedersen's not just a win now move. It's a make-badard great move, and he'll still be great two or three years from now, and it does expedite the process.

The Thursday show, or maybe it was the Wednesday show, I think. They want to see them in Detroit. I think there's obviously a potential fit there. Sure. Again, same deal. Can they stomach the cost? Can they figure out something that would make it work? Where would you want to see them?

Give me an example of what Detroit would have to do. I think it would have to start with another young center. So that's probably like a Nate Danielson. I think you're talking about their first round pick and maybe you can protect it very slightly, but probably not too much. And their first round pick is going to be higher than that Toronto one that you're talking about. You can make it like top 10 protected, yeah. Maybe top five.

I don't even know if you can top 10 protect it. Just in case they win the lottery. You're talking about Hederson, right? Yeah. And then I think based on the Eichel template, you're also talking about like a roster player. And that's where I think it would struggle to come to fruition because who can Detroit give up off its roster that Vancouver really wants that they're willing to part with? they're not going to trade the own market in a deal like that. They're not going to trade Lucas Raymond in a deal like that.

Same for Moritziter and Simon Edvinson. And then it gets dicey pretty quick. There's no Alex Tuck equivalent that I could see in the table. And that's where I think it would be really hard for those teams to work out a deal with Vancouver. Like if you're keeping JT Miller over Pedersen, you're not kicking the can down the road. No, you're not you're not tearing it down, of course. That's right. And that's what I think a lot of teams will struggle with in putting together packages is the wind now teams probably have already.

exhausted a lot of their prospect covers. And the rebuilding teams, the Chicago's, the Detroit's, the Buffaloes, whatever, they probably don't have enough guys that they could give back to Vancouver to satisfy where Vancouver's at. And that's why I think, you know,

we talked about like everyone should be checking in. I imagine everyone probably has checked in, but almost everyone falls into one of those two camps where they're going to fall really short on one half of the deal that Vancouver obviously needs in order to do something like that. Right. And again, Vancouver's in a no-win situation here. They're not going to come out better off if they move Elias Pedersen because they're not going to be able to get both the high-end prospect and pick and a legitimate roster player.

So I don't envy Vancouver's position here. And if I'm Vancouver, I'm probably trying to keep him at all costs. I'm trying to figure out a way to make this work in the long term. It's up to them to decide whether this is a long-term issue or if it's an absolutely untenable situation. Is there a team out there that you think is the perfect Pedersen fit, the team that that's like this is where I want to say. see him when all said and done. God, it is to me a team like Detroit. It just makes so much sense. You know, what's missing to put a team like that over the top is that mega star forward. You got all these really great very, very goods and not necessarily a great.

And Pedersen would would be that great. And the compliments that those other guys could slip into the proper roles. I mean, you wonder about a team like Buffalo, but, you know, I don't really want to see that because everyone goes to Buffalo and it doesn't work out. But it's one of those teams. It's one of those teams that's kind of on the periphery. That's like close, but is missing that one Genesequa thing. And what they're always missing is a superstar, is a legitimate superstar. And that's where this is. You know, look, this summer, Miko Ranton and Mitch Marner are going to be UFAs.

Do we really think they're going to reach the market, though? Like, we've talked, me and Scott Powers have talked ad nauseum about trying to add either Rantan or Marner this summer. The chances of that happening, the Hawks have all the money in the world. They could throw 16 million at these guys and not even bat an eyelash. But will they even get that far?

So few players of that caliber in their primes get to unrestricted free agency. And you just have to wonder, is this the only way to get a guy like that? And at this point of their career is there has to be a bizarre situation happening where trade has to be forced and then you go and pounce.

So it's going to be one of those teams that are just kind of in that middle trying to get that one thing they don't have. The team that I think he makes the immediate like, okay, I think this team can win the Staling the Cup now is Dallas. But I just don't see any way they could afford him. Even with Stagans, if they went into, are they in LTIR right now with Stagin's injury? He's not currently on LTIR. And even then, that's not quite enough to make it. Yeah. So that would be like, you know, the farm system obviously, they've graduated.

and players recently that I think could be really exciting, you know, candidates in that. But, but they're important roster players. Would you part with a Wyatt Johnson or a Logan Stankovin to get an L.E. Ash Pedersen? Yeah, I would too. But you can't do that cost-wise. Like, it doesn't work out. No, no, I understand. You'd have to part with someone more expensive. Like, I almost wonder, would you do Jason Robertson? Oh, wow. He's been, had a couple of down years, but he's starting to look like himself again.

L.E.O. That's, that's because a year ago, two years ago, I would have had Jason Robertson on the same tier as Elie Hes-Pederson. And they're about the same age. They're very similar in age. They're very similar in age. It's 25. Oh, man. See, that depends on,

do you believe that the Robertson of this year and last year is the real Robertson or the one of a couple of years ago when he was scoring 40 goals and 100 points? Is that the real Robertson? Again, this is literally just us spit. Yeah. Oh, we're completely making this stuff up. We're just, you know, aren't they're GMing here. But that's a tough recall because Robertson, one of my favorite players in the league,

like I think incredibly highly of him. him. And I wouldn't give Robertson plus, put it that way. All right. Let's take a break right there. We'll come back. We'll talk a little bit of Red Wings and then we'll go into the Capitals. All right. Our main segment today is going to be on the Capitals here. But just real quick, as I know we wanted to hit the Red Wings are on a seven game win streak. Everything is coming up Todd McClellan's way since he got to Detroit. Really since his first practice, they are undefeated. They did lose his first game, but they hadn't had a practice yet. You saw him up close. I've seen him a lot. I'll weigh in in a second here. But you saw them. them Friday night. I don't know that that was their best game, but they did still play fairly well.

What did you notice about the Red Vings coming into town? I noticed the Blackhawks had one of the worst periods I've ever seen in that second period there. They look like a team that's just very, they look connected, right? Like that first period was a little sloppy, but they look like a team that's kind of firing on all cylinders. It's funny. I was reading your story today on five reasons this is happening.

And the new coach bump is I'm fascinated by it because you said like, you know, McClella wants them to play harder. and smarter. He wants more traffic in the crease in the slot. Why the hell weren't they doing that before? Like what coach is like, hey, I don't want traffic in the slot and I want you to play stupid and weaker? But this is how it always works. No, they did. I mean, they did want those things, right? Like, that's the thing is it's, it's, you hear the talking points after and you go, okay, so that's the change. No, it's just getting through in a different way now. That's how I see it, at least. It just, it just baffles me that these guys are out here making millions of dollars and

they need to be told to play harder. It's just like, what are these guys doing? I get tuning out your coach, but are you like intentionally tanking to get rid of him? I don't believe that happens in the NHL, like maybe in a couple of extreme situations. But it always baffles me to like, oh, we got a new guy. Well, now I'm going to try. I think the word that McClellan used very early in his tenure is the most revealing and it's mechanical, right? He felt like they were playing mechanical. And to me, that doesn't strike of a previous coaching staff that wasn't coaching.

It strikes as it was maybe a little overly rigid or players who were thinking, too much about what they were being coached to do. And you know how that is in anything you do, the more you're thinking about, if you're like cutting a vegetable, the more you're thinking about like, do not cut my finger off, do not cut my finger off, right? The more likely you are to skim the tip of your finger as you're doing that, right? And I think what he told them to do is, you know, obviously the money quote was play effing hockey.

You've done it your whole lives. That was the quote we could hear from, you know, up in the practice arena during the first practice, went super viral on Twitter. The faster, smarter, harder thing was clearly a message that he had given to the team and he gave to us in the press conference. And then there's another kind of slogan is been play free, right? And that one's the one that I'm most curious to see how long it lasts because I think that's really easy to say when you come in. And then the second your team starts getting into track meets, that play free is going to go away real quick and be replaced with a different coaching point. But what it is to me is I think it's just getting through differently.

I think there's a psychological element to the play harder thing, right? I don't think that Lelon wasn't telling them play hard, wasn't imploring them to play hard. I think the way that it's that it's coming through from McClellan is making them play harder, right? And it's drawn attention to it in a certain way, but it's also just the everything else about it has freed them up. There was a line in that story and in the press conference last night. I think he was talking about Eric Gustafson and who had had a really bad first half. He had really struggled. He didn't look like himself.

He wasn't scoring. He wasn't getting really any responsibility defensively, which, you know, isn't his main game. And you just felt like, well, then what is what's going to happen here? Like, how can this work if he's not on PP1, if he's not producing? Because he's not getting any real defensive zone starts. And Gustafson has played his best hockey since McClellan came in. And the line that McClellan had was, I think everybody feels important when you can play all of your pairs and not have to chase matchups. And that's the thing that sticks out to me.

the most is I think everyone now feels important. The Reddings leaned so heavily on their top guys. They played Mo Sider and Simon Edvinson against the toughest matchups all night. And it was a logical thing to do. I never once questioned that because I was like, yeah, those are their best players. Of course, that's who's going to play against McKinnon and those guys. And they leaned really on Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond and Alex to Brinket for offense because, yeah, those are really their main scores. Those were their only guys in double-digit goals before yesterday. So it felt logical to me. I never really stopped to consider the psychological impact that that would have on the rest of the team. I think you see this sometimes on teams with megastars, with the Oilers, with the Leafs.

If Matthews and McDavid and Drysidal and Marner aren't scoring, other players need to know that, yeah, I'm good enough to do that too. And I do think sometimes when all the emphasis goes on just a few guys, it can diminish everyone feeling important. And that gets the best out of guys. That is my main takeaway from the first three weeks of this. I have struggled significantly to decide what is honeymoon period, new coach bump, what has practically changed. There's some things. The penalty kill is very changed, although the results aren't as different as they are in the win-loss column. So I don't think you can give all the credit to the penalty kill.

I think it's that. I think everybody feels important again. Everybody believes in themselves again. Yeah, I mean, I was flitting around the Red Wings locker room the other day in Detroit talking to a bunch of guys. and they were all raving about the coaching change, like not even hesitant about you. Sometimes guys are a little wary of pointing to a coaching change because it makes it look bad on the previous guy,

and they don't want to, like, you know, kick him out while he's down. But these guys were, they were all in. And the interesting thing is, McClellan is kind of a tough coach. You know, he practices a lot. He's very defensive and detail-oriented. He's not exactly like a chill players coach kind of guy, but they seemed like they were almost like craving it. Like they were starving for it.

And look, they're not going to have a 50% power play the rest of the year. They're not going to close the regular season on a 47 game win streak. Some of this is just the energy that comes with a new coach. Schedule. Yeah, schedule too. Yeah. How sustainable do you think this is? Like, is this now, you look at the Eastern Conference right now,

and it is the most mediocre thing you could possibly see. It's just like 11 teams within like six points of a playoff spot. They're going to be in that mix, but can they rise to the top of that? It's possible. We're going to find out soon here. I made the schedule comment for a reason. They have had an easy schedule. It was well-timed for the new coach to take over, right?

They're going to have San Jose on Tuesday. They have a very good chance to run that win streak to eight. And then they go on the road, Tampa, Florida, Dallas, Philly. It gets real, right? And so that's when we're going to find out how to stay. To their credit, you know, they blew the doors off of Seattle. They blew the doors off of Blackhawks. Like they are beating bad teams the way a good team beats bad teams.

They are. And it's just going to be a matter of what does it look like after they've experienced the inevitable. As you said, they're not going to close it on a 47 game win straight. They're going to lose a couple in a row at some point. And maybe next week, maybe this week, right? And how do they respond when that happens? Are they still craving the feedback? Because he made that point last night too, McClellan did, is like, well, right now the buy-ins

is incredible because every time we give them a new coaching point, we win the next game. They're like, all you got for us now, right? And that's all they've known since their first practice is, you know, we work on something in practice and we win the next game, right? And that's great. And I think that's huge for fostering the buy and it's huge for keeping the momentum rolling. At some point, that will stop. And then it's going to be, okay, let's see where everything falls. And I think, I think it's going to be better than it was based on all the early returns. It's promising. But can I say they're clearly better than the Ottawa senators today? Can I say they're clearly way better than the Columbus Blue Jackets

today, the Boston Bruins today, the New York Rangers even today, right? don't know that I can say that clearly, but they're going to be in the mix, and that's the main thing that they wanted. Well, I hope I might get thrown out of the city of Chicago for saying this, but the NHL is a better place when the Red Wings are pretty good, you know, when they're in the mix. And I can't wait to go to, I want to go to a playoff game at Little Caesar Arena. That arena is going to be just amazing when there's that playoff energy in it because there's still has never been, that arena's been around a while. I hope, I guess, I've made fun of the Eiser plan more than probably just about anybody, but I would like to see the Red Wings be a legitimate NHL contender again

because I just feel like the league is a better place when it is. Which brings us to the Washington Capitals, right? Like I gave you a homework assignment a while back. I don't understand the Washington Capitals. Like they had the first half of the season that defied logic in a lot of ways. I look at them and I see so many warning signs. So many, you know, it's kind of like Vancouver last year early in the year. There's all these PDO warning signs are screaming at me where

you look at Ovechkin and Strome and I love Dylan Strong. He's one of my favorite guys I've covered. I'm so happy to see him reaching his potential. Ovechkin and Stroh are both badly underwater in terms of possession, but they are outperforming their metrics to such a ridiculous degree. And that's, look, superstars do that. Patrick A made a life out of it. But, you know, Ovechkin's shooting 20%.

Tom Wilson is shooting 19%. Proto is shooting 23%. Strom is shooting 16.17%. Connor McMichael is shooting 16.7%. Jacob Chitrin is shooting 14% from the blue line. How sustainable is this? Should I believe in the Washington Capitals, Max? To an extent is the way that I would say.

To an extent, you should believe in the Washington Capitals. Do I think that they're the best team in the NHL? No. But I think that there's something legitimate happening here, too, in addition to the stats. You are right about the shooting percentages. I will say still, if you go by just expected goal share at five on five, they are still eighth or sorry ninth in the league right now which is still everybody everybody but that top line is actually like well above water in terms of expected gold share right and so i think there is still something very real there i think we have to start right we've talked about tom mcclellan and detroit we have to start in washington with the coach and spencer carberry has to be the jack adams favorite at this point in the season uh i think he's from what i understand that i i picked the brains of some people around the capitals closer than i am particular shout out to the and posts Bailey Johnson, the college buddy of mine, who was in Detroit recently.

And so I was like, all right, I'm going to have to give a report on the capitals. One of the things she pointed out was the young guys, Connor McMichael, and you mentioned Protas, and you mentioned the scoring with Protas, but I think what Bailey pointed out to me about protest is his defensive stick is excellent. And then that's a big piece of this, right? But it's the reclamation guys that I see as the big drivers here. Washington looked like they were on the Pittsburgh trajectory here because just like Pittsburgh, just like Detroit, just like Chicago before them, when you're as good as they were for as long as they were, you don't get top picks. If you look at the Washington Capitals lineup today, they have two top three picks centers in it that are in their prime. And it happened because the Washington Capitals were willing to give them a chance as a reclamation guys when nobody else in the league particularly wanted Pierre-Luc Dubois.

Dylan Strome, I don't think, had a massive market when he left Chicago. They gave both of them a chance and they're being handsomely rewarded, possibly overly handsomely rewarded, to your point with Strom. But it's very clear that Dylan Strome once again looks like a top five pick again, even if you don't buy the points. Dylan Strzell, I do buy the points because I saw him play with Patrick Kane and Alex Debrinket. The thing about Dylan Strome is he's not a great skater. He's never been a great defender. But he knows how to play with highly, highly skilled players. like he makes him he elevates his game and he sees the game and you can pass that way where so when you put him with an ovechkin you put him with a cane in it to bring it and you're going to bring out the best in then then then Washington's been smart about like the one thing Chicago never did is give Strom the chance right they were healthy scratching him they were putting him on the fourth line it was idiotic his game only works with high end players and it works great with high end players so credit to Washington Spencer carberry for just putting him in that spot and leaving him there and boy did they win the off season or what?

Dubois for Darcy Kemper, Chitrin for Nick Jensen? Like all the guys, like every move that McClellan and Patrick made over the offseason seems to have worked out just gangbusters. Right. And I would say the defensive part of this is really important too, right? And when you talk about Jacob Chikrin, he's a big part of this, Matt Roy is a big part of this. John Carlson is a big part of this. All of a sudden, you go through the Washington Capitol's blue line, you go, oh, this doesn't look so mysterious anymore. why this is working. I think any NHL team in the league would take their blue line right now.

And you added in that you're getting the resurgence from Ovi. You're getting the resurgence from those those young, those reclamation kind of centers, those young guys that we talked about. It starts to all just add up to like, yeah, actually, this is just a pretty good team now. Like when I saw them, it was the first game after McClellan's first practice. The Red Wings beat them. And they didn't look all that impressive. And I was going, this is not going to be good for my homework assignment here, right? But then you just see what they do since, and they just always rebound. I think that speaks to Carberry.

That speaks to the buy-in. They just have a lot of players that are playing to what you need them to play to. And the lineup looks a lot more balanced than I would have ever guessed at the beginning of the year. It's pretty incredible, isn't it? I mean, this was probably the worst playoff team we've ever seen in the cap era. They were a minus 37 goal differential last year. And they made the playoffs and they got their ass's hand to them in the first round. Like they were embarrassingly bad for a playoff team.

this gives so much hope to teams that like and fan bases of teams that are just kind of stuck right now. They probably a little too old and not good enough that you don't have to tear it down to the studs that you can tweak. You could find the right people to lead the team. You could make a few savvy trades. Pick up a few guys that you believe in that others don't and, you know, the chances of all of them coming through the way that they have for Washington are slim and none. But you can do this. You can take a mediocre to middling team and make them pretty darn good. in one off season if you do it right.

They might also have the best two bottom six centers in the NHL in Lars Eller and Nick Dowd, two guys that just ooze winning that do their job at a really high level. Both of them can add a little offense when you need them to, but they're just really steady, reliable pieces. And I think that does a lot for stabilizing because you're going to build out the rest of that bottom six and take some chances, right? It's Andrew Mangiopani, it's Taylor Radish, right? You can take some chances around that when you have.

those anchors right in the middle. And of course, goaltending is a piece of that too. We'll save that for when Jesse gets here because I want his opinion on the Capitol's goaltending. But I just look up and down and I go, yeah, this is a really complete roster. And to your point, they've done it in a way that I think teams generally feel like is maybe a pipe dream to try to attempt that you have to do it down to the studs. And you're fooling yourself if you do it this way. Well, the Washington Capitals are pulling it off. Yeah, I still have my concerns. I mean, Lars Eller is, he's a great, I feel like you need three scoring lines in the modern day

NHL and I feel like the caps maybe have one or two. So they're scoring at incredible rate this year, one of the top scoring teams in the league. It's kind of starting to come back down to Earth the last month or so. I don't know how sustainable that is. I worry about the depth. I still, you know, I shouldn't really be worrying about the goaltending, but it's not elite elite names back there.

But as a team, this team just, they're defying expectations in so many ways. And it can't be a fluke anymore when we're more than halfway through the season. It's like Vancouver. Vancouver turned out to be pretty darn good last year. Everybody was like mocking them early on. Oh, the PDO train. They're going to come crashing down. They were pretty good. They won a playoff round. Like they're not, they're, they weren't a fluke. And I feel like that's where Washington is right now is we have to take them seriously. What would you add if you were the capitals? Like trade deadlines coming out.

Eli Arch Patterson. It's the answer for every team in the league right now. What would I add? I would add Eliage Benerson. I don't know. Maybe a little depth scoring. Like if you're got a top six scoring and you can bump Protash down to like a third line role or do you know what's with that? Now you're talking. Now you're talking. That would that could work. That's what you need. Right. You need. I remember Mike Babcock said this 150 years ago when you when the Blackhawks were good. He's like every team once you get to like the second round of the playoffs, every team has a great top six. It's the rest of the guys that makes the difference.

And I don't know if I like, if I look at Washington's bottom six and think Stanley Cup. contender right now. So if they could get, you know, and not an elite score, but like a good, reliable, you know, proven score to kind of flesh out the lineup a little bit. I'd like to see that. All right. Let me give you some names off CJ's trade board. You just give me a yes or no.

I'm going to assume it's a yes on Pedersen or Miller. Chris Kreider. You know, it would probably work. I could see that working. Brock Nelson. I think Brock Nelson would make just about every team in the league better. Scott Lawton. Yeah. What about like a Michael Granland, someone like that?

I could see that. Like that's the kind of guy. I feel like Michael Granland is going to be this year's best trade deadline acquisition. He's a guy who flies under the radar because he's on a bad team and he's out West. He is really good. He's having a career year. And I feel like that's the kind of guy you add where it's not necessarily a superstar, but he's like a middle six winger that just or who can also play center who just instantly deepens your lineups. extends your lineup. That's the kind of guy I'm looking. That's who I think Dallas should be going after to replace Tyler Sagan. I think Michael Granland could be a very hotly sought after for rental this year. All right. Let's take a break right there. Jesse will join us when we're back.

All right. Let's go now to the Granger zone presented by BEDMGM. Jesse Granger joining us now. Jesse, are you good with, first of all, that new name? Works for me. I need you to say it in the Sterling Archer voice every week. Granger Zone. range a zone. I'll have to work on that. I'm not prepared. Give me a week of practice and we'll get it for next week.

I'll see if I can hit the high note. All right. Sounds good. I don't know if you heard it before you came in. We were talking about the Washington Capitals today. Laz gave me a homework assignment to tell him how and why the capitals had had the success that they did. And the one piece of it that we didn't really get to was their goaltending.

They are giving up the, I believe, fifth fewest goals per game in the NHL. And I can tell you, that's not because of. the expected goals underlying numbers. I assume here, goal tending is a big piece of the puzzle for the Washington Capitals. Yeah, it's super interesting. We all watched

Charlie Lindgren breakout last year, and the question was, can he maintain it? Will he be able to keep it up for another season or was last year a fluke? And he's dipped a little bit from last year. But then you have Logan Thompson come in, who they traded for from Vegas over the summer. And he's putting up even better numbers than Lindgren was last year.

He's fifth in the league and goal saves above expected. Right up there with some of the elite guys in the league, his safe percentage, 9-17 is really good. Most impressively, he's won 18 of 22 starts, which doesn't even seem possible. That is an unfathomably high number. And Thompson is such an interesting goalie to me because he does so many things technically wrong, but he is so athletic. His reaction speed is so good.

And he has great intuition for like when to pull out these crazy moves that he likes to out. And I think he surprises shooters a lot. He doesn't make the typical save selection that a normal goal, the average goalie would make. And I think that that works to his benefit. But I also think that that's his, like in the goalie tier story that came out today, I called him a Maverick. And he does things his own way. And I think that that's why his path to the NHL took so long. I think it's why maybe people don't think of Logan Thompson as an elite goalie is because he looks very different when he plays goal. And for those listening that don't know Logan Thompson's path to the NHL, he went undrafted

out and ended up playing in U-sports in Canada, Canadian University Hockey, which is not quite men's league, but it's not NCAA Division I. It's not the same thing as college hockey in the U.S. And most players that end up playing in U-sports don't go on to play in the NHL. It is very, very rare for someone to end up playing in the NHL after playing in U-Sports, but Logan Thompson did it. And I think part of the reason it took so long for him to break through is because goalie coaches watch some of the things he does and say, man, I don't know if that's going to work at the highest level. But he's proving pretty clearly this year, and he did in Vegas over the last couple of years, that these things can work.

And you can goaltend in different ways. And it's just super interesting that a guy that likes to do things his own way, he covers the bottom of the net incredibly well. And it's working really, really well. And his first real chance to be the number one on a team. So almost by definition, goal saved above expected suggests some kind of unsustainability. Like he's doing better than he should be doing right now. How sustainable do you think this is? And is Washington a legitimate threat this year to go deep?

Yeah, I mean, I didn't think Logan Thompson was going to be this good this year going to Washington. I thought that part of the reason he looked so good in Vegas was the defense around him in front of him, maybe propped up some stats, made him look better than he actually is. So he's surprised me quite a bit this year. So I'm not going to say that he's going to fall off because he's proven me wrong so many times. Like I said, I think I'm one of those people that also watches Logan Thompson and thinks, man, he made that save. But is he going to make it the next time using that technique?

Probably not us every time he wins 18 out of 22 games. The guy just continually gets it done. So I am tired of doubting Logan Thompson. I do think he's going to be able to maintain this now. And the capitals go on a deep run. I think that some things have to go right for you. the playoffs. I'm not, I wouldn't pick them to win the Stanley Cup. I wouldn't pick them to win the East, but I think that they are legitimately one of the better teams in the East. And I think they've

got as good of a shot as anyone. All right. So let's go here to our BetMGM odds for the Metro division here, because the capitals are minus 150 at this point to win that division. And this is the part that surprised me, the Carolina Hurricanes plus 260. Devils are at plus 375. The Rangers are at a casual plus 20,000 to win this division here. I can see why the the odds are where they, where they are after looking at it again, like the capitals are up five points in that division with two games in hand on the devils. But to see a team as good as Carolina get plus 260 odds kind of jumped out at me. And I'm wondering where your head would be at looking at the metro from, from that lens. Yeah, I would be with you. I think I would probably

want to bet on Carolina at those odds just because they just, they're the anti-Washington. Like Washington, the underlying numbers aren't always great, but they find ways to do it. And it just feels like, It just feels like so many things are going right for them right now. Whereas Carolina, it just feels like that system is so good. They just churn out. They're never on the wrong side of things when it comes to the analytics. They constantly possess the puck better than any team in the league. They're constantly spending more time in the offensive zone.

It just feels like Carolina is the safer, more stable pick. So that's just my preference. I'd probably go with that team that is consistently out playing teams as opposed to the team that maybe their underlying metrics aren't as good, but Washington has just found a way. You would think that that team has a cold streak. It's due for a cold streak at some point. So, yeah, I agree with you with those odds.

I would probably go Carolina, but they've got a ways to go to catch them. You know, every time I go to Vegas for a game or something, I always put $5 or $10 down on the Mets to win the World Series. I would be so quickly putting $5 on the Rangers to win the division here. Just like, what's the harm? I mean, they're 19 points back. They are not going to win this division.

but with Igor's just there's a second, you know, he win 10, 11 games in a row. We see every year there's a team that goes on a run like that. I would put 5 or 10 bucks on plus 20,000. Are you kidding me? They're 2 and 0 since Igor's been back. They're on their way.

There's those numbers going to be plus 19,000 next week. Right, get it while it's hot. Jesse, you teased a little bit earlier about the goalie to your story that you had run on Monday. It's always one of the stories I like forward to the most because I love seeing everyone stacked up right against each other. prizes at the top. Igor Shostirken, Connor Hellebuk, Andre Vasselowski, U.C.C. Saros. But there was another name in Tier 1, Sergey Bobrovsky, and he's the defending Stanley

Cup winner. But I was curious to see Bobrovsky in that same tier. I know it's tough when you get tiers because number one and number five in the same tier, you're not saying they're the same player. But what put Bobrovsky in Tier 1 for you? Yeah. So the goalie tiers was a project that I've been working on for a while weeks, and it's just a compilation of, I asked opinions from 10 different experts, six of them, goalie coaches, current and former in the NHL, so guys that either are currently working for NHL teams or had worked for NHL teams in the past and now work privately with NHL goalies. So these are about as knowledgeable of goaltending experts as you'll find in the world. And four of them were retired NHL goalies that played long careers in the NHL. So I took all of their

opinions, averaged them out, and that's how we come up with the tier rank. And the one thing that really stood out to me across the board when you talk to goalie coaches and former goalies about these guys is sample size matters so much to them. And proving it in the biggest moments matters so much to them. So a guy like Dustin Wolf who's having an awesome season and we all look at that and say, wow, the future is bright for Dustin Wolf. He's still relatively really low in these rankings because these decision makers have not seen him prove it enough at the NHL level. and I think Bobrovsky's the opposite of that. I think he's a guy that, yeah, maybe his stats aren't as good this year, but he's carried a team to the cup final in back-to-back years.

He has two Vezanas under his. They know that I can send him out there every night he's going to give our team a chance to win. And some nights he's going to win, he's going to get us a win when we probably don't even deserve it. So I think that that's how Bobrovsky ends up in that top tier is he's just proven it in the most important games over a long sample size compared to some guys like a Lovov. Lucas Dostol or a Dustin Wolf who are really hot right now, but they just sample size really matters and track record really matters for these goalie coaches and former goalies. Is that the same thing with Andre Vasselowski because is he really a top tier number one superstar elite goalie these days that he was, you know, four or five years ago? I personally still think he is. And I think that last year, his play dipped quite a bit and the stats show that.

But I think that last year was a really bad scenario. I think that he had back surgery in the offseason, and that Tampa team was floundering without him. They thought that they would be able to tread water long enough until he got back, and it was going downhill quickly. And I'm not going to sit here and accuse Tampa of throwing him back in there earlier than he should have, but I definitely don't think they took their time because they couldn't, because the playoff hopes were going down the drain the longer he didn't get in net. So inherently, whether it's Vasilevsky or it's the training staff,

whoever, you're going to be trying to get him back as fast as possible. And I think we saw him not be ready to dominate in the way that he can in the NHL last year. And his stats weren't good. He didn't look like himself out there. But this season, I think he's looked much better. And he's not up there with Hellebuck and Soros and those guys in terms of goals saved of what I've expected this year. But his save percentage is better, lightning or winning.

When I watch Basilevsky this year, he looks much more like the guy that we saw previous before the back surgery. So, yes, I think Vasilevsky is still elite. You ask the players in the NHL who they want for game seven, one goalie. They're almost all going to pick Vasilevsky because he's done it in the big moments. And I think that we as fans underestimate, like, Igor Shisterkin ends up above Hellebuck in these tears. 100% because of the way he's played in the playoffs. He has elevated his game. He's been awesome in the playoffs.

And as great as Hellebuck is. And I hope he does it this year. He hasn't performed as well in the playoffs. And that's how he ends up at number two behind Igor. these guys care a lot about who plays the best when the games matter the most. And I just think that Vasselowski, it's going to take a lot of down years for people to forget about how dominant Vasselovsky was during those cup runs and how it was. That was Carrie Price for years where he would always win best goalie and all the player

polls when he was clearly not the best goalie anymore because of what he had done in the past in the playoffs and in the Olympics. Eli Seroken was a guy, Jesse, I wanted to ask you about because I felt like in the past couple years, there have been times where he's flirting with that tier one company, but he's not even the top goalie in tier two. He's more like in the middle of it, you know, right there with like Jake Ottinger and Jeremy Swayman and those guys, which I think is appropriate company. But what was the conversation, Rodelia Sorokin like? Because it has been an interesting time in New York there with him. Yeah, I think he's like, like you mentioned, these tiers, there's like,

there's space available within the tier. They're not all exactly the same. And I also think that there are different like potential like floors and ceilings for these guys and sorokin is a guy who most people put into tier two but quickly most of them would quickly followed up with but man he's close to tier one and when he's at his best he's right up there with those top guys whereas i think maybe there's some other goleys in tier two that they they pretty much that's where they belong and that's where their ceiling is and they're probably never going to be a superstar but they're going to be a high end goalie for you so sorokin definitely has more potential um the the the one thing that always stands about stands out about Sorokin's game when talking to coaches and former goalies is just how explosive

his his legs are. And like the guy, it is hard to get across the crease laterally faster than Ily Seroquen does. It is really fun to watch. I got to see him shut out the Golden Knights here in Vegas a few nights ago. And man, when he's on, it just seems like every shot is hitting him in the chest and you're like, you want to blame the shooters. Oh, they're shooting it as chest. But it's like, well, when the guy is perfectly square to every shot and he's, you pass this one timer across the crease and it should be a wide open net. And instead, there's this goalie standing right in front of you, his chest, perfectly faced at you at the correct depth.

There's no net to shoot at. He just makes it look so easy. And he makes a bunch of saves look a lot easier than they should because of how fast he is. He gets to those spots so much faster than anyone else. So when he's on, he's really, really good goalie, as good as they can get. I think part of it was last year down the stretch, obviously Patrick Waugh benched him for Varlamov, who's an excellent backup. I think that that factored into some of the voting.

But also, his stats haven't been great this year either behind a team that's struggling a little bit. So, yeah, he's a guy that I think I test A plus as good as it gets. The results lately haven't been as good. So I think that those kind of balance out and you get a tier two goalie. Was there anyone on this list who you really felt you thought you would, if it was your ranking, right, it's a poll. But if it's your ranking, you're like, this guy would have been like a whole tier, or maybe more than a tier higher for you than where the league had him or the panel had him. So I will say that this panel, it took a while to get these votes.

So some of these, a lot of these people were voting when McKenzie Blackwood was still in San Jose. And it's funny because most of them were hyping him up saying, I know most people probably aren't going to think much of Blackwood because he plays on the sharks and he loses a bunch of games and he gives up quite a few goals because of that. But this goalie is way better than people think. and what ended up happening is it gets traded to Colorado. Everyone realizes how good this guy is. He's been awesome for Colorado.

And now the comments on the story are they've got Blackwood way too low. I can't believe how low Blackwood is. So it's funny how fast the perception of a goalie can change in just a matter of weeks or months. So I will say that I would have Blackwood higher because I really like Blackwood's game. And all the panelists basically said, this guy's way better than people think he is. It's just funny that he ends up being in a tier four. And now that he's playing for Colorado and we actually get to see what happens when he plays behind a good team, that feels low when initially it was supposed to feel high. It's all right, Jesse. You could take your victory lap.

You were right on about McKenzie Blackwood. You were saying long before they made that trade that he should acquire McGenzie Blackwood, he's better than he looks and he would make them better. You take your lap, man. He's very good. And the thing is, it's nice to see him actually perform because that's not a guarantee. like a goalie can be as good as he wants behind a bad team. You throw him behind a good team, the expectation. When you're the goalie in San Jose, it's you're playing with house money.

It can't be your fault because we're going to give up 40 shots a game and we're probably going to lose. It's up to you to save it. And if you pull out the miracle, we win. And if not, oh, well, the team wasn't good enough in front of you. All of a sudden, you go to Colorado where maybe you don't face a shot for 15 minutes a game and your team's leading seven to nothing in shots. And now all of a sudden you're facing a two-on-one.

And if you give up the goal, it's totally your fault that the team loses. is the expectations change so much. So it has been nice to see Blackwood, at least to this point, handle those expectations really well and play a different style of hockey where you're not getting the volume of shots. You're not feeling as comfortable in the net as you were in Jose because you're not feeling those bucks.

And every shot matters more than it did. When you're playing for a contender, every save matters more. So it has been nice to see him, at least to this point, live up to those expectations and adjust to those new expectations. You can check out the 2024-25 goalie tiers on the athletic. That's going to do it for us. Thanks for listening to The Athletic Hockey Show today.

Please, if you're enjoying the show, leave us a rating and review, preferably five stars. Frank Carrotto will be in between two shawks on Wednesday.