The Athletic Hockey Show - Why is Celebrini No. 1 on the U23 midseason rankings?

Episode Date: January 17, 2025

Max and Corey break down the midseason under-23 NHL player rankings and discuss why Macklin Celebrini sits atop the list, how the 2024 defense class ranks, the difficulty evaluating the Hutson brothers, a trio of Blackhawks prospects on the rise, and more. Plus, the guys answer some listener questions in the first mailbag of 2025. Hosts: Max Bultman and Corey PronmanExecutive Producer: Chris FlanneryProducer: Chris Flannery Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. Hey, everybody. Max Boltman here alongside Corey Prondman for another episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. It's a throwback, Corey. Back to the day of just you and me, run on this whole show. Yeah, it was kind of good to get rid of the riffraff and go back to the good content. So I'm excited to do this show.

Well, we got a good show on tap. You came out with your under-23 mid-season rankings this week, along with a couple of companion pieces that I think we'll probably get to a little bit as well. Always talkers. We know we got some good stuff to get to there. And I want to start at the very top of it. Maclin Celebrini at number one. I don't think this was a huge shocker to me, but I do think this has been a bubbling debate here as we've gone on throughout the season. Celebrini's been so good for the San Jose Sharks, and he is ahead of Connor Bedard, who checks in at number three for you. And I wanted to know how much of a slam dunk decision was that for you? And what have you seen from you? What have you seen

from Celebrini to get there. It wasn't a slam dunk decision, and it didn't help in terms of how hard decision it was, is that in the weeks leading up to publishing this list, Badaard's kind of been on a tear of late. So I think a month or two ago, especially around a month ago, right before the World Juniors, I thought it was clearly Celebrini. But then Badares been playing really well lately. I mean, he's always been playing very well,

but just really just kind of playing at the level you expect to play at. And so it kind of made me waver a little bit. Wonder if I had him and if I should have gone the other way. But I think Celebrini to me, in his rookie season here in the NHL, has just looked outstanding in every way possible. Like this guy is just such a good hockey player. You know, when we were going into his draft year, I try to do semi-realistic comparables.

for players. And you may recall the name I compared him to was Cindy Crosby. And the names and people would like chuckle off that. Like come on, Corey. Like don't be ridiculous. I was like, I mean, I'm not saying he's going to for sure be Sid, but he's the closest thing to Sid I've seen in terms of just the complete player. Like his skating's great.

Is super skilled, super intelligent, super competitive, a natural score. You know, just gives it as all every single. single shift, creates a ton of offense already at the age of 18. He's an elite driver at even strength, a really reliable two way forward at the NHL level, puts up a ton of offense everywhere he goes. I mean, this guy to me looks like the kind of guy you can build a champion around. It doesn't mean there's going to be a champion in San Jose. The next year, two, three, heck, even five maybe, because there's a lot of work to do there still. But they have the most important piece in my opinion.

And, you know, Bedard is outstanding. His skill level is higher than Celebrini's is. And he's going to put up a ton of points in the NHL. But I think, I think this is honestly when I was going through this, I talked to a lot of people in the league about just comparing the two of them. And I think the consensus was, even if Bard might have a little bit more offense over the course of his career, like Celebrini is going to match up against opponent's best players and still drive play and score a ton.

And that's just the kind of guy you can potentially, you know, build a winning team around. I think when people read the article, what they'll be more surprised at is not Celebrini ahead of Badaard, but rather Stutzla ahead of Badaard. And I assume a lot of that just comes out to the positional variable and Stutz will have it a little more size speed at the center ice position. Yeah, I think Tim's skating is just ridiculous. And like, I know his name may not be as sexy a Celebranianian in Baderds in terms of that. the hype machine that's been behind him for years that quite frankly you and I have helped perpetuate among among many others but I think you look at just what he's done in the NHL today just always you know I think he's been one of the league's top scores this season he's at all you know major

offensive several major offensive seasons already before his 23rd birthday um and just to go with you know he might be one of the top five 10 skaters in the league and the way he can just you know control the play at even strength and just create so many offensive chances and he's a competitive all-around player like i see the arguments i see the arguments to put those three in any order quite frankly because there's there there's some distinctions between the three of them soobarini's kind of like the jack-of-all-trades there's no weakness there just everything at a really high level stutzel's feet are just really really special and then bad darts skill and pure scoring ability is really really special i so i would object

if anybody said that they shouldn't be in a group together, if they would say like Stuttle doesn't belong in this conversation. I think just the evidence to suggest otherwise. But I wouldn't object if anyone said, okay, you got to get Baderda head of Tim or you got to get Badaard ahead of Mac. And it's like, yeah, I think that's reasonable. The good news for anyone who's objecting is that Stutzler turned 23 on Wednesday, the day after the article dropped. So next time the article comes out, you won't even have to worry about it. It'll be celebrating Bidard again. most likely. Yeah. Yeah. I usually, these articles spanned five draft classes. So that was the 2020 class. This would be the last article with a 2020 class, which is great, because I did not want to do yet

another evaluation of Alexei Lefrenier. I don't even know what I would do with him right now, to be quite honest. Well, here's a group of players that's going to be in these rankings for a long time. And I'm going to pull this one up from the mailbag. This was a question from Benjamin. I think it's a great talking point for this list. And that's the 2024 defense class. And and how they slot in on this new under 23 list. It is already a little bit of a shakeup. And it's always interesting when you scramble them into other classes. I think it makes the difference look bigger than it is.

But you've got still Zbouiam up there, I think number one in that class. Then you've got Sam Dickinson. That's a little bit of a riser. You've got Artem Lev Shanov. He checks in at number 22, which is the same tier as Dickinson, for those who aren't looking at the article right in front of them. And then you've got Yakim Chuck. You've got Anton Selyev and you've got Zane Perak.

All those guys, by the way, top of the lineup players or better on this list. So all of them still really highly regarded prospects. But the evolution of that group of players, we followed him so closely a year ago, and it has only continued. And maybe the best example is Dickinson jumping up toward the top. Yeah, it's sure. Some will see that and be like, oh, what's so good about Dickinson? He was terrible at the World Juniors.

You know, are you blind? And it's like, yeah, he was, I agree with you. He wasn't good at the World Juniors. I don't think you could find many players on Team Canada who played well that week, but you go back and watch his games in London and he just dominates in a lot of those games. And I think his offense that he's showing at that level

is just ridiculous. And a lot of his different just by how good London's team is, their power play. He's running the first power play unit. You know, the offense he's showing, which I think is like a point and a half per game, maybe closer to two points per game right now. That doesn't reflect to me the type of player

I think is a first power play type of defenseman in the NHL. But I think he could be. Like, I think he could be in the same way. You know, like Jake Sanderson's run a first power play in the NHL at times. Like, you probably want somebody else doing the job. But I think he could do the job. I mean, his shots really, really good. He's got a strong skill level.

He's just a fantastic skater. And I think the question of him in his draft year is his hockey sense, which I think popped up at times during the world juniors. It pops up at a time, he watched him in the OHL. I don't think he's a super smart cerebral defenseman, but I think he makes plays.

I mean, you don't score the way he does and you don't run the power play he way he does at the junior level without some degree of hockey sense, even if it isn't a massive selling point like his skating is. And I just think, you know, just everything about that guy's game is just really good or at best passable to the point where, like, when we saw him in his draft year,

we're like, is this going to be enough offense? This is the offense going to translate? And I think there's budding evidence now that there's going to be good NHL offense coming out of Dickinson. So it's 1.75 points per game as we record this, which is better than a lot of these, like, offense first. It's higher than per rec by a wide margin. Not only that, it's the best by a U19 defenseman in the OHL since 1994. Like that is, on a per game basis, of guys who played a full season.

And when I bring this up, that particular distinction that, like, Perrek is the super offensive guy and Dickinson's, like, way outpacing him, but Perrek supports in the scouting world will say, well, if you put Perrek on London and you put Dickie on Saginaw, I think that would change significantly, which I think is a legitimate argument. I'm not here saying Dickinson moves the puck better than Perak does, but I think the argument is it might be closer than we thought. six to eight months ago. And we know where it is the other way, right?

We know that Dickinson is the six three defender. Again, even the World Junior being what it was, if it's close offensively, you're taking Dickinson. And I think that's kind of the idea. Yeah, and I think that's just where things would go now if you redid that draft. Yakim Chuck's a guy you were really big on in his draft. I don't think you're not big on him anymore here, but what have he thought of his evolution throughout the season?

I think him and Perak, I mean, people got offended when they got cut from the World Junior team, but I don't think either their first halves in the CHL were that amazing. Obviously, I think they had good summers and Yak in particular had a good preseason there in Ottawa. And then they go back, and I think they were very good in the CHL at the junior level, but I don't think either truly dominated in the first half in the way you would have hoped they would given their skill level and their resumes. And I think that's ultimately what led to them not making it to the world junior teams, I thought. And, you know, Yac is tremendously skilled, especially for a 6-3D, skates well. He's got a little bite in his game. It remains a promising prospect, but I think the defensive issues there popped

up more than you would have hoped for a 19-year-old at that level. So that's been a little bit concerning. And I think that's just, you know, it goes into the calibration. I think he's like a little bit lowered on the projection for where I had him in the summer, but I don't think it's dramatically lowered. And how about Anten-Selyev, who's another guy who's, You're really looking at the tools there more than you're necessarily looking at point totals. Salive is the toughest one of that group to work with because he kind of, you know, just because we haven't seen in that, you know, junior tournaments, the world juniors, the world U-18s, a level playing field that's really just kind of been, you know,

evaluating his playing the K-HL, which in his draft year was just tremendous. And he got plenty of opportunity. He was running a power play unit. You had to go play with the Russian U-20 team there in the summer. and he got to get a lot of ice time and you got a really good evaluation of him and then torpedo this year just used him a completely different role. Last year was power play, no penalty kill this year.

It's penalty kill no power play, and there's been not really much offense coming out of his game this year. He's still the 6-7 mobile defense, but it was really mean and a really good defender. But now you're wondering, okay, now is this going to be an offense guy in the NHL? Is he just like a Nikita Zadarov type of Russian defenseman?

And I think he'll be, he'll be a good. better than that, but I think that's the balance with Salaya is, and it's the frustration with evaluating these Russian players in general, is we don't have the kind of data that we do with other prospects, typically, in terms of the variety of evaluation environments, which I know frustrates teams as well. We're going to talk about Lane Hudson and his brother Cole when we get into the guys who have risen up this list, who have improved the most on the, you know, the other. under 23 pool, and we'll get to that after the break. But I do just want to ask you that the challenges

of ranking a guy like Lane. He's a guy, I'm sure you got a lot of feedback on. He's having a really impressive offensive season in the NHL already, and yet there are all these still questions about his ultimate projection. What went into kind of where you place Lane, which is still a really high place on the list? He's at number 39. What challenges are you referring to H-T-T-R? The challenge is evaluating him because of his traits or because of like the noise around him, essentially? Well, I suppose both, but I meant more the first. I mean, the noise being what it is. But when you have a guy who's in producing the way he is at the NHL level right now

for a team that's probably outperformed expectations, I think it's fair to say, he's a big reason for that. And yet you still have to look at the long-term projection of a guy with his profile. And there are questions with that. There have been questions that I've watched him have defensive struggles live in games this year. And you can't ignore that either. Yeah, it's been kind of funny, like, especially in those first few weeks of the year where the buzz was just out of control, even though he wasn't playing the kind of minutes he is right now

and not running the power play like he is right now. Every time I had a conversation with somebody at a rink, his name always came up. And the feedback was mostly negative to be quite odd as from hockey people, be it scouts, agents, executives, all very skeptical because of the things we've all talked about before, the size, he's not like the super hard to play against type. He's a pretty good skater.

It's not like a Quinn Hughes level skater by any means. and it was just a lot of skepticism, a lot of people saying, if he was on the trade market, I wouldn't want him. You know, where we know, he's not a priority guy for us.

Like we don't regret not picking him. But as a season has gone along. And every, as every week goes on, I think more evidence starts piling up that this guy is not just a good player, that he has a chance to be like a really good player in the NHL. and just because it just even if there are going to be some defensive issues like you mentioned.

Like you, you know, there have been some really, really bad game from him this year defensively where he's just, he struggles with, you know, defending speeds, a speed to spend, defending size and he can have bumped around a little bit. But I think with Lane, it's always a math equation, right? Because for any player, you could have a major liability in one or two areas your game as long as the rest of your game are, you know, major, major pluses. And I think that's the case with Hudson, Lane Hudson, that is, is that I think that his skill and his hockey sense, in particular, his hockey sense are just so good. And his skating is really good, too.

He's not like super fast, but he's got the edges, the shifting is, the way he dances on the blue line. Like, I think all that stuff is just so good that it can counterbalance. I do think all that being said, I do think there will still be skepticism of this player. As there is, I mean, there's skepticism in the league still for, Quinn Hughes, as crazy as that sounds. In that, not that nobody says that he's not a great player, but there'll be, there'll be like coaches you talk to and people and executives and other teams who will be like, can you win with that guy?

Can you, when the game gets more physical and the game gets really fast and the reps put the whistles away, can you win with that guy playing 26, 27 minutes a night for you in the playoffs, especially when you got to pay him $10, $11, $12 million. which, you know, the way Lane's producing, at some point, if he does, he's doing that for three, four years. He's going to command a massive contract and be well deserved. But I think those are the debates that go on around that player type in particular. I've raised questions on this podcast for Adam Fox and that for the same reason, not that Adam Fox is a great player, but is that really the guy you can lean on for 25, 28 minutes in the playoffs on a consistent basis.

And I think for all those players, it's, I think, you know, there's always going to be a degree of skepticism on them until it doesn't go away. So for Lane, I still think, you know, great, great player, but I think you're looking at some of the defensemen I had ahead of him. Like, I think it's, I sure I didn't read any of the comments. As we were recording this midday on Tuesday. So it's only a few hours after the articles come out. and I think it's at near 600 comments at the moment. So I'm sorry if I didn't read your comments. Yeah, but only 400 of those are from Montreal fans.

Exactly. Like, I'm sure some Montreal fans are reading this to be like, you know, FU, like how can you have him here? But you look at some of the defenseman ahead. Like, if you call it Chicago right now, who just picked Levy, you know, second overall. I know Lef Shunov hasn't had a great year, which is, like he's been good in the American League, but he hasn't probably been as good as you would have hoped,

hence maybe some of the little bit of the reordering there. I would, given they just picked the number two, if you call it Chicago, if you're Montreal, you offered him Lane for left shootoff, I would guess Chicago says no. Yeah. Like, we have Brock Faber a little bit over him. I'm presumed Minnesota is not trading favor. I presume Ottawa's not trading Sanderson. Like, there's some degree of players.

I'm sure, like, there's a couple of them, like, a parrek or whatever. Maybe you could have some reasonable debates over for me, but. But that's only two spots ahead. Yeah, but like, that's what I mean. And it's like, I think, you know, in Calgary just took him, but like, you know, took him in the top 10 and they're probably, you know, super happy about that player, I presume. So I think that's a fair spot for him, but I'm sure, like, every one of those 600 comments that are building, I'm sure everybody thinks their players should be higher. And I've had to move Lane. I didn't move him.

I moved him up one tier. I didn't have him move him up massively. But maybe if he keeps polite as well, I got him up another tier. Sticking on, on Lane, and really him and his brother, Cole, like, both of those guys are on your list of players who, improved on the most in the U23 category in the first part of the season. And you just talked a lot about Lane. So I guess let's go to Cole now. And I think everyone coming off the World Juniors probably understands pretty clearly where his game is at.

But what should Washington be expecting from this player now? Is he at the level of Elaine or is there still work to do? Not quite at that level. Like I think you look at them at the same age and Lane clearly had more offense in the hockey yeast. But I think you look at this player. and I mean, I've thought this for years. There are definitely rhymed between the two players.

I think at the same age, I have Cole rated at a similar level of prospect as I had late, but for different reasons. Cole probably doesn't have quite the level of offense in his game. His lane does, especially in the hockey sense variety, but he is bigger. I would argue he's a little bit more physicality in his game, not like significantly, but a little bit more.

And just he does this wall still probably being on slightly, he's a little bit just more naturally athletic than Lane. It's not by a significant margin, but I think you're looking at, you know, if you're looking at what Lane is doing in the NHL right now, if you're watching, you just saw him play in the World Junior, and he's been one of the better defensemen in hockey east to this season.

And you're like, hey, I think there's a path for this guy to make it in the league. It's going to be the same issues. You might need to protect him defensively. He's a 5-10 defenseman. He's not going to be like this penalty killer. He's not a probably a match-up guy defensively, but, I mean, he looks like he could run one of your power.

units because John Carls is not going to be there forever. And at some point, you're going to need someone new to run your power play. And I think this guy's got this guy's got a chance to hold his own and even strength and run a essentially a first power play in the NHL, which is a mid-second round pick. I'm not saying that's going to happen. I think there's a chance that happens. But I think if you're a Washington fan, I think you're thrilled to say there's a chance that happens for your recent second round pick. Also on the most improved list are a couple of Chicago prospects and in pretty impressive territory. You've got Sam Renzell, the big right shot D, right behind Kevin Korninski, who was Chicago's top pick in that draft in 2022. And Renzell, they drafted

at the end of the first round. So those guys are both top 70 for you here now. I'm sure maybe Blackhawks fans might want to see Korkinsky higher, but to have Renzel in that territory, very impressive. And not too far behind that is Roman Kansarov out of the KHL. And he's a guy who you've got every trait above average, which I imagine is how he's overcoming. the 5-8 size that typically is a little bit of a red flag. Yeah, and Renzel, I mean, if you would have told me in the year after they drafted him when he's in the USHL, that I would be talking about him in the same level as Korgensky, I would have like cut out chuckled because he was borderline terrible in a lot of those

USHL games. I watched of his in his draft plus one year, his World Junior Ray Challenge. He was just so mediocre, I thought, like it looked like it was going terrible. It looked like Chicago just drafted a big guy who could skate, and there was a There was no tough moving. There was significant hockey sense concerns. And then, you know, they drafted high school. We knew it was going to be a jump, but you thought he could adjust to the

USHL at least and be a good player at that level. He was like very average at times. Then he goes to college the year after that freshman in 19 in Minnesota. He's really good. Like he's one of the better defensemen. He goes, oh, okay, this is what we thought you were getting. We got to go late first. Like this guy looks like his chance to be like a four or five defenseman.

He's big. He can move. He can move. He can make a first pass or some skill. their defense isn't great, but it's doing no jures. You know, it's okay. I had okay world juniors. And now this year, 20 year old, I enjoy college, but still a sophomore. And he's been one of the best defensemen in college hockey this season. And now you're talking about a 6-4-65 D-man, who can skate, who's playing big minutes on one of the very best teams in college. And you're like,

oh, like, this guy's got a chance to be a top four offenseman. And not a guarantee by any means, But now you're looking at Chicago's D group that is their building. And in the NHL, they've already got Alex Flashek. I know there's one other deep man that guy there, like Nolan Allen and Kaiser. But like you're talking about the long-term guys. Maybe Allen's in there, maybe Kaiser is in there. Maybe they're not. I think long-term you're looking at Flashik, you know, whenever Seth Jones leaves at some point in his career.

And then you add on Artie Lyft Shoot-Off and you add on Kortinski, and you add on potentially now Renzel. You're like, those are four big, really mobile defensemen who can all move the puck, and that could be the beginning of an exciting D group. And Cancerol is interesting, because I think on Magnetogor's, the guy that we've been talking about for last few years has been Danila Urof, who's been a very nice prospect from Minnesota as a late first round pick. But Cancerov's like lapping him right now as a younger player in terms of scoring. He's on their first power play. He's been on an absolute tear for the last month in the KHL, been one of the best overall four. forwards in the KHO for the last month, despite only being a draft plus two.

And he is tiny 5-8-5-9, but he's competitive and he skates really well. He has a ton of skill. And even though he is small, I think he's got a chance to kind of be like, I'm not saying he is Logan Stancove, but he is kind of giving you those vibes of like if he's, he's small, but he's showing everything you want in his game to potentially overcome that liability. I remember talking to scouts about Stancove in a couple of years ago and they're like, you know, for most 5-8, 5-9 guys, they got a proof to you they can play.

Stanky's so good that he can, he's got to prove to me that he's not going to make it. I think Kansarov is trending towards that level of prospect. One guy who was at the top of this list of most improved players will not be a surprise to anybody who's watched the New York Rangers this year and that's Will Cooley, who's a guy who's coming to the league and he's on a year that's been miserable for the New York Rangers, probably one of the very few bright spots out there. Yeah, it's fair to say.

Our producer, Chris, is with us right now, and I asked him, has to have been any other positive story on the Rangers other than Cooley? He was kind of struggling to think of anything else. But I think, you know, Will's, I think when we saw Will come up when it was a prospect, he was a second round pick, I believe, by the Rangers, late second round pick.

Everybody saw, you know, he's big, and he hits people. He's got a little score. in touch. It's not a great skater. People thought he was a little dumb, like in terms of hockey sense, just lacking that kind of instincts and creativity. You're like, oh, he's going to play, but people are like, oh, he's going to be like a third pork wine guy who hits people against like 20 points a year kind of thing. But this was a guy when he was younger, he was 16. He had a massive 16-year year. This is a guy people thought when he was coming into his draft year was going to be like a mid, maybe even a high first round pick. And then he had a disaster of a draft year. And then like it was

the COVID stoppages and his development kind of got paused. He went to the American League. He barely plagued at that level in his 18-year-old year. He goes back as a 19-year-old. He rips up the OHL. And it was a hard guy to kind of get a read-up. It's just a score. Is he just a hitter?

Like, what is he? And I think he's shown now the promise we thought of him when he was 16, even though he had that bad draft year. Like, he went to the Holinka for Canada. He was a power play guy for them. This was the guy who we thought when he was young was going to be a score. And I'm not saying he's going to be a major score long term, but I think he's showing, hey, I'm going to be big and hard to play against, but I'm going to be able to put 20 goals, 25 goals, potentially in an NHL year, maybe even more. Like this is, you know, going to look, he looks like a really, you know, legitimate top six winger in the NHL.

And, you know, to get them where they got him is a very nice piece of value for the Rangers who, It looked like they need to find value somewhere on their roster currently. So as you were talking about Cooley in his draft year, there was something that popped into my mind, and that is you're talking about this big imposing body who looked really impressive going into his draft year, and then it starts to kind of go downhill a little bit. You think about Nyes now? I'm thinking about Charlie Stramel. Okay, gotcha.

Charlie Stramel once looked like a potential top 10 pick, and then it has not gone well for him since, or had not gone well for him since. You've got him on the upswing back into the top 100 here at number 93. His draft plus one year was just an absolute disaster. Wisconsin's new coaching staff had no interest in playing. And he was like the 12th, 13th forward, no power play. After being, I think, a two-time member of USA's World Junior team, didn't even get invited to the camp.

Just say his development was problematic last year would be like a massive understatement. It was just a disaster of a year for Charlie. People are watching, like, I was getting text from scouts at the games who were like just like couldn't the world or wanted. This guy didn't even play in the NHL. It looked like it was going that badly. And then he transfers, goes to Michigan State. Adam Nightingale was his coach of the program.

Now the coach of Michigan State, immediately slots it as their first line sentiment, gets premium opportunities. He's not like killing up points-wise, but you can argue Michigan State the best team of the country right now. And Charlie is playing a significant role on that team. And I'm not sitting here telling you he's going to be like a top two-line sediment.

He's going to put up 40, 50 points in the NHL. But I think he looks back on track, the play in the NHL. He looks like where he should have gone in the draft, which is around the 20s in the draft. He's a big, fast, physical sediment with some scoring touch, maybe not the smartest, you know, most instinctive offensive player. But he looks to me like a potential third line forward. maybe even a third line center in the NHL, which might say, is that really a riser? That's a guy in the first round two years ago.

I was like, yeah, but he looked like a third line American league player last year. So like that to me is a significant improvement and something that I think wild fans are both happy to see and also like kind of saying, I pulled you, it wasn't Charlie, it was Wisconsin, that was the problem. And that's a whole other issue. But it's good to see that he is back on track now. All right, well, we'll close this segment then with a guy who's a riser by anyone's definition. And that is the Flyers goaltending Crospect, Igor Savrigan, 19 years old, starting for a premium KHL program.

You have him ranked 69th on this list, which for a guy they took 83rd overall two years ago, Philly's throwing a party right now over this guy. Yeah, you don't want to like, you know, he's only played, I think, 25KHL game. So you don't want to get too over the top about it because it's not. the most data, but just watching this guy's development over the last couple of years, even watching him play the previous year in Russia and seeing his development from there because he didn't play full time in the KHL last year. So I thought he looked really, really impressive, but it was like VHL and MHL games and you're like, is this really that impressive?

And I guess in the KHL, he looks like, he looks like a really impressive prospect of that level. And you're like, oh, okay, like this guy's got premium, not just good, premium athleticism. turns of his way he can make difficult lateral saves. And he's been up and down at times this year in the KHL, but he's a teenager in the KHL and he's holding his own and helping his team win games at times.

And that is rather rare. It reminds you, like, I don't think he's quite the level of, you know, you think of Sorokin and Shostarkin and Vasselowski and even Ilya Samsona, but like he's not quite at that level. But, I mean, he is, at least maybe closer to Sam Sotom in terms of

level of prospect at the same age. Like he is, look, he looks really, really good. If you would have stopped the world juniors, I think he would have sold a show at that level. Again, the frustrations we mentioned earlier about in these Russian prospects, but I think Philly's got to be really happy. And flyer fans,

especially they have to be happy because last I heard, their goalie situation has been, I was going to say a little dramatic of late, but And again, you don't want to put too much expectations. The kid's 19. Don't want to be plugging him into the lineup next year, for example.

But I think you're hoping in the next couple of years, this is a guy who if he continues to progress, could potentially be a solution for them. All right. Let's take a break right there. We'll come back with the mailbag. All right, Corey, let's close with the mailbag. First mailbag, by the way, we've done in a while with all the World Junior stuff. So some good stuff here. And I was just thrilled to stand that out right after the U23 article when.

up. Like, there was just, everybody was just very calm and rational about it. Yeah, there were a few I saw that were a little fired up. But I thought, I thought there was also a good crop here. And it starts with Richard, who wants to know about Gabe Perrault being at number 126 on your list. That one surprised me too. That's a little lower than I would have expected. So with Gabe, it's been a tough one for me over the years to kind of slot him, because I think he kind of falls into the conversation of he's clearly really skilled and really intelligent. is it going to be the variety that's going to have him play 17 minutes in the NHL and put up 70 points or is it of the variety where he plays 14, 50 minutes a 90 and it gets 40 or 50 points?

And I kind of have him slotted right next to a guy who has similar questions. He is one spot ahead of Terrick Parishcheque, who Washington took last year really had a similar spot as Gabe went in the draft. and they both went around that spot for similar reasons. Everyone saw the years they had. They're all, they always, you know, especially Gabe, but Parishak last year and this year too. Scores a ton. He's clearly exceptionally skilled.

Same thing with Gabe. Like Perot just scores a ton at the junior level and then, then again at college. But they're both, you know, 5'11, great skaters. Gabe probably competes hard, but like that's, you know, that's a differentiator for them. But I think that's the bait. And when I've watched game this year at BC at the World Juniors in particular,

like I start to get the questions that I had at times in his draft year of, man, like, he's good, but is it going to be like the special kind of good? Because there's not a whole lot of 5-11 guys in the H.L. Who are not good skaters and are top six wingers. Like he would be one of two or three who would fit that criteria. And I guess my, I used to, you know, the last year or two, I lean to, I think he could be, and now I kind of leaning the other way. And I'm sure Rangers fans are delighted with that.

But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe six months, maybe he'll just be just so stupendously good here in the next few months as we get into playoff season in college. I'll reconsider, but that's just kind of where I stand on him currently. All right. You talked earlier about the defense prospects in Chicago and the young defense, see the guys they already have there too. I thought this was an interesting question from Luke.

should Chicago take if they land the first pick? Because it may be that a defenseman is the top overall prospect in Matthew Schaefer. He's so good too. That's a hard guy to say no to in my opinion. Like if he hits, like he's got a chance to be a Miro Hayskinin type of player. He's, like he looks pretty special. I don't think he's like a runaway number one pick. So I think there's a couple other guys to be in the mix there. And I'm kind of in the process now that the World Juniors are over, the U-23 list is out, and I'm kind of process of putting the draft list together. I don't think it's unreasonable if Chicago got the first pick

to go in a different direction, like whether it's any of the other forwards that are available there. I think there's a couple of them that are close enough to Schaefer. That I think, yeah, I can buy you going in that direction. Higgins would be another small center, which they have got a lot of between Badaard-Nazard. Yeah, I think, yeah, I'm thinking you're thinking more, Michael Misa, Porta Marconne, maybe even Caleb Dinoje,

like Anton Ferndel, Roger McQueen, there's plenty of other good players there. But to me, like, at one, want to be real careful that you're not, you don't want to be so lame to say, take best player available, because I think if it's a dead tie or close to a dead tie

and you really feel like you have an excess of something and you have a need for something, I think that absolutely comes into play, even out one. But, and I think Matt is, you know, he's definitely in the conversation to be the first overall pick. And I would have a real hard time saying no to him. I think when I do my list, he will be number one for me. But I also don't think it's unreasonable to take somebody else.

That'd be the best way to answer that question. All right. Brendan wants to know who could be this year's late riser in the draft, who could go way higher than they're going in current mock drafts? He's thinking like a Seneca or a David Ryanbacker from Pat's drafts. To the, squads to the first question, though, I do think if they,

I think the issue for Chicago would be in that situation is that Schaefer would be better than anybody they have. Like, I think left Schenov is great. Schaefer is, I think,

not only better, I think he's clearly better than him. So I think that... And maybe you can trade a D that you have now. If that's the case, you probably take Schaefer

and trade one of your other D. Fade Korschinsky, whatever kind of thing. But yeah, I just thought that would be a conundrum, potentially. To answer your, what was it,

the question of who would be a late, I think could be a late riser who's going to end up going higher than anybody's talking about right now. How late are we talking here? I would say Seneca is the comp. That's the one he used. So you guys had Seneca on your radar at this time last year, but I don't think you were talking about him top five, maybe not even top ten at this time last year. Yeah, I think that's fair. Like, I'm not going to mention like a Venture Eklink, because I feel like people know that name.

Like, he was with the world juniors. Like, he's been like maybe in the teens for people, but like, I think he can go. He went like five or six. I don't think anyone's like going like, wow. I can't believe that guy who just ripped up the Al Spenskin and was one of Sweden's best clothes at the world juniors went that high. I don't think that would be a surprise. I think the two names to me, and I don't have him in that area for me personally as players,

but I could buy them getting it by the end of the year. First would be Carter Bear, who's just having a fantastic year in Everett. Like he's scoring at a two-point-per-game rate or something right now on being one of the best players and one of the best teams there in the W. I think they are the best team in the WHL, sorry, like by a clear margin, here's a point percentage. And like, he just checked a lot of boxes with the skill, the competitiveness. He's a good enough skater. I think he's a really good playoff.

I think that could convince people to take him in that really, really high range of the draft. And then the other one for me would be Jake O'Brien, the center in Brantford. You know, six two centermen, super skilled, plays in the inside. Good skier. Like, again, same thing. If he's, his first half didn't go really well, but he was really good as a 16-year-old. He's been coming on up late. If he has a really good second half, even a good playoff there for Brantford, I think that's a guy who could start to push his way up.

I think right now if the drop would happen, he'd go around 10, I would say like 8 to 12. But if he, maybe he could push someone like a McQueen, maybe he could push more like a, like, like, I don't know, Frontel. Yeah, if he continues to have a really strong second half. All right. Kenneth wants to look ahead a year and ask what's your early comparable for Landon DuPont. Actually, he said early, early comparable. So he is aware just how far ahead we're asking you to look. McCar.

That was the first time I saw DuPont, I thought he was McCar. And just like the way his, you know, the skill, the way he handles the puck, like the smoothness with his touches, the elite skating, the fact of these five, ten, and right shot team in. Like the first name I thought of was McCar. I'm not saying he's going to be Macar, but that was like, and you're going to hear that comp a million times. Just get ready for that. All right, Kyle says, looking at stats, both Leo Carlson and Adam Fantilli seem to be underperforming this year. Do you have any worries for their future projections? Do you feel that way that Leo and Fantilli, I guess, are underperforming?

Yeah, they were two of the hardest guys should be doing that anyway for the U-23 list. And some careful observers will note that even though that Leo was kind of in a similar spot as he's always been, but Fantilli dropped a little bit. And of course, right as I did that, he went on like a tear over the last week or two kind of thing. Obviously, with clubs having injury issues, but he's played really well. I think both of them are really good players.

They're still so young that I think it's still projection-based. Like, you know, there have been periods here where, like, something was like Slavkovsky in Montreal where, like he has a bad couple of weeks, and people get all nervous, and then he has a good couple of weeks right after that. And I think with Carlson and Fantili, they're going to have, there are really good moments here in the second half of the year. I think you still have to look at the body of work. The fact, they're both, you know, big sentiment.

We could skate, have a ton of skill. Can you have really good natural scoring abilities. Fantilli, you know, has some real nastiness in this game. Carlson's got really good hockey sets. So I think long term you're still really happy about both of them. And I think that's the with just their toolkits, their track record. I think that's the kind of thing where I'm not ready to raise the alarms just yet. If we fast forward 18 months from now, even 12 months from now, and they're still not getting it going, like, okay, then you start asking, okay, come on, guys, like, you know, now is the time.

But I think when you're still only two years removed from the draft, even though they're not to be teenagers anymore, they're 20-year-olds, but it's still really young at the NHL level. I'm not ready to go crazy and say they don't have the impact potential that we've seen in them for years. and I think has a really good chance still of coming. All right, now we'll close with Dan and wants to know. Which current H.L. Goalie can you see making the biggest impact next year? Presumably, I think he means in the NHL. He gives you the options of Sebastian Kosa,

Yesper Walshsted, or Devin Levi. Probably Kosa, I would guess. Levi have the same concerns I always have. I just think he's going to go really well in the American League and then gets to the NHL and Flyers there are a lot better and they take advantage of his frame. We're going to have a similar debate here when we get to Jack of Vancovic later in the year, run the draft. What do you do with a final 11 goalie?

Was there, you say Saros special? Like, it's a tough sell. And I like Devin a lot. I think he's going to play. I think Jack of Vancovick's going to play in the NHL. But I think terms of whether they could hit the high sign in the NHL is a question. I had Walsett. Man, I don't know what to do a Wollstead.

Like, it's kind of funny. You go back. We had that stretch a couple of years in a row where we had the really high goalie picks. You had Walsstead in Nigeria. Vascarov and you get Kosah. And you're still kind of waiting. And I think Ascroft is kind of finally arriving, but you kind of are waiting for like,

when is one of these four guys actually going to become like a legit stud in the NHL and like, you know, help deliver the value on that significant asset, the team invested in them. And you're still kind of waiting. Knight had that stretch there. Obviously he went,

you know, into the NHLPA program there. And so that was obviously a variable there that and just everything he's been dealing with. But we're still waiting. But Walsdett, I mean, he's been terrible this year. I know he's been, you know, I think he's had some injury issues too, but he's just, you look,

you see how he's been playing this year, and he's admitted it as much, I think, in interviews. He's just been brutal. It's hard for me to watch this guy play, and I think he's going to make an impact in the NHL next year. You might need another year or two at the American League level. And it happens that way sometimes for goalies. So always an adventure there. That's going to do it for us.

Thanks for listening to this episode of the Athletic Hockey Show Prospect Series. We'll talk to you soon.